Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 195: Drought on the Horizon? Reading the Early Weather Signs with Gary Lezak

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195: Drought on the Horizon? Reading the Early Weather Signs with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are discussing the
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  weather pattern setting up for the year.
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  The early indicators that Gary is seeing, some concerning
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  trends. He discusses those for just all
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  of the Northern Hemisphere and what we have been seeing in the
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  first four weeks of this pattern setting up and what he kind of
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  anticipates or at least hopes for.
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  For the next 4 weeks of this pattern setting up, we are
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  talking all things, whether we're talking drought
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  indicators, we're talking just everything, anything else that
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  could possibly go into the weather pattern as it continues
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  to set up. Without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and hop into this podcast episode with Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
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  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Gary, good morning. Welcome back to the podcast.
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  How are you? Good morning.
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  I'm doing fantastic. The new weather pattern
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  continues to set up. The weather here is ridiculously
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  warm in Colorado. There's no snow in the
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  mountains. What is going on and how are
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  you? I am great.
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  I am assuming that you are a little sad about the whole no
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  snow in the mountains thing yet, as someone who is probably
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  itching to get some snow in Colorado these days.
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  But I'm enjoying the warm weather warm ish weather we're
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  having in Kansas right now while I can because I know that the
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  miserable cold is right around the corner so I'm trying to soak
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  it in while I can. We'll talk about a cold front,
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  but I grew up in Southern California where snow was wow,
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  look at that. It snowed on the mountains 30
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  miles away. So that was snow, a snow day for
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  me when it was 30 miles away, 40 miles away for here, living in
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  Golden, Co, we average about 75 inches of snow per year where I
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  live. So even if it's way below
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  average, there's only 30 inches of snow.
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  That's still good for me. I I will get this.
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  But if you live in other places, will it snow?
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  Where's the cold? What is going on?
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  You know? Yeah.
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  Let's what what is going on with the weather pattern?
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  What are what are your thoughts? We're like a little over halfway
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  through. It's setting up what's what's
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  going on in the world of the weather.
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  Well if you're new to the LRC, the weather pattern every fall
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  does evolve and set up between around an October 5th, 6th or
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  7th date. That's the day it goes dark at
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  the North Pole and it may be a coincidence.
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  I don't think it is. Energy shifts from the North
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  Pole all the way down across the northern hemisphere to the
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  equator and these waves of energy are moving across.
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  Right now the Earth and our weather pattern for the season
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  is setting up all weather roulette wheel.
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  The roulette wheel is spinning and the ball is spinning around
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  it and it has not fallen into its spot yet as it fallen into
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  the drought spot. We have to really seriously talk
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  about preparing for drought for next planting, growing and
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  harvest and for the cattle ranchers out there, impacts on
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  drought area or will it fall in the golden snowy slot or maybe
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  the cold and dry slot, the warm and dry slot, the rainy and cool
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  slot will fall into the sunny and dry slot.
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  So just know that the roulette wheel of weather is spinning and
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  it's going to land somewhere within the next month.
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  And we will let you know what that means because we learn so
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  much more ski areas are opening in the Colorado Rockies right
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  now, Lauren. And and they've been on man made
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  snow in man made snow. And even that probably melted.
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  It was 83° here on Sunday. And so the mountains in the 60s
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  and that's not good. So I'm not sure if the ski area
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  stayed open. They probably had to close where
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  what will be like force Southern California, Lake Tahoe, the
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  Pacific Northwest, what will be like in the plains.
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  Just know that the roulette wheel is spinning around snow
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  cover, Lauren across North America.
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  There's almost no South of Hudson Bay.
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  You go far up into northern Canada, Alaska, Greenland,
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  Siberia, they're covered in snow.
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  The Arctic Ocean, it is covered in ice.
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  So it is definitely ice covered at this moment over a large area
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  up there. So we do have a cold air source,
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  but the United States is almost snow free in this early November
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  timeframe. But something's changing.
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  The weather pattern is going to buckle and the first storm that
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  forms is going to actually happen in a couple days here on
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  Saturday night. Saturday night, a storm is going
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  to cross Iowa, northeast Missouri and Illinois.
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  And let me look at the latest data.
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  It has snow. There's a little bit of snow
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  across eastern Nebraska, parts of Iowa in the northwest
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  Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Even three to six years of snow
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  possible. So this first system coming
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  across is going to produce a little bit of snow near the
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  Great Lakes. Also a strong cold front, a cold
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  blast. So if a hard freeze is is
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  impacting, just keep in mind a hard freeze is likely across the
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  Kansas, Nebraska border, Iowa, most of Nebraska, all of South
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  Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Minnesota and
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  Wisconsin in northwest Illinois. This will happen by Sunday
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  morning 0° up on the Canada border.
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  So it's not an Arctic blast, but a strong cold front will come
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  through this weekend as as we go through the patterns.
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  So that's how it looks right now.
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  Lauren. Pretty interesting weather
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  pattern, but it's still evolving.
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  I don't like what I see. I have concerns that it's a very
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  dry weather pattern. However, as I always say,
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  patience, 'cause we are still waiting and watching this
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  pattern evolve. Yeah.
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  Definitely some signs of concern that we've seen so far, but like
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  you said as well, we still have a month, like we still have
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  quite a bit of time for this to continue to set up, continue to
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  make some adjustments, things like that.
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  And Oh my gosh, I can't believe how warm it is across the entire
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  lower 48 right now because wow, how many years can you say that
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  it was like 80° in Colorado over Halloween weekend?
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  Like how often does that happen? How often does it happen that
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  we're like not we, we saw a freeze here in Kansas recently,
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  but it was just like one overnight freeze.
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  And that's all we've had. I'm ready for like 3 days in a
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  row of freeze so that it bugs bugs cannot go sayonara and then
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  I'll I'll be happy. Yeah, you'll get the Sunday
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  morning freeze and the Monday morning freeze, and then on
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  Tuesday you'll go. How did the bug survive?
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  That is ridiculous. Why didn't they freeze?
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  Go underground, You don't come back out, you're just going to
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  die. Bug.
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  Yes exactly exactly. My husband is hunting right now
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  and he is sick and tired of the bugs.
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  Every time he comes home he's like I'm tired of getting in a
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  tree and getting ate by bugs. This is horse baloney.
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  Well, Sunday. Monday should kill a lot of them
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  or put them into hibernation or whatever happens to the bugs.
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  I don't understand how they survive, but yeah, we, we were
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  down to 25° and I and it got, it's like 60.
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  And on my deck it's really sun, sun.
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  It's like a sun deck. So it feels a lot warmer than
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  60. So I was laying out there and a
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  yellow jacket or a weird looking yellow bee came spinning,
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  buzzing by me and like, no, it was 25 this morning.
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  You cannot exist. How did you survive that?
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  Go away, go away. It's time for you.
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  Time for you to say goodbye for the rest of the year.
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  As far as the rest of the weather pattern setting up and
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  things like that goes, what is the process going to look like
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  over the next month of continuing to watch it and as it
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  just continues to evolve? Last year we set up into a
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  pattern that end up being around a 41 to 42 day cycle.
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  So it's cycled in the 38 to 44 day range.
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  The cycles are usually in the 40 to 65 day range.
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  Almost all of them. One year was lower than that, 34
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  to 38 days. Back in 2002, Ash, it was 38 to
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  44, one of the lowest cycles, but most of them are 40 to 65
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  and more likely mid 40s to mid 50s.
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  I've been keeping track of it and it is all over the place.
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  So the pattern is not settled in yet.
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  And so I'm wondering the cycle could be about 8 weeks long this
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  year. So last year was six weeks long,
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  so it could be two weeks longer. However, I don't, I see some
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  evidence of that but not conclusion concluding evidence
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  of that. So we'll watch that.
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  So the cycle setting up, the pattern setting up, the problem
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  right now we see is that we haven't had any really wet
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  storms across the plains yet. That's why Colorado's so dry.
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  So we need to see some of these in the next 4 weeks.
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  The models have some weak systems like this one coming
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  across the Great Lakes isn't that weak.
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  It's coming across the Great Lakes Saturday night with some
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  snow. So, but that's coming in from
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  the north. I'm it's just a process.
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  I, as I said, patience, I really don't have any conclusions yet,
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  but just know these we're looking at every bit of the
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  pattern across the entire Northern Hemisphere right now
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  and it's setting up and evolving.
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  Yes, a very, very exciting time. Well, Gary, anything else that
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  we need to chat about as far as the weather goes today or just
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  as we go into this next week? Any other highs, lows or things
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  that we need to touch on? In my Weather 2020 Intelligence
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  Report that is out right now for for this week, I discuss all
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  these changes so you can go and become a member of that.
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  Next week we're going to start looking and see what the LRC
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  model predicts for the winter. It's still early, but we'll do
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  some of that and, and you'll just a lot of other things.
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  It just just monitoring this weather pattern as it sets up
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  and then switching from weather to sports.
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  The Chiefs lost to the Buffalo Bills, and it was frustrating
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  watching their offense try to run whatever they were doing.
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  It was a little sad, but they still almost came back.
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  They had the ball with a chance to tie it up, but they didn't.
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  Yes, it is a frustrating time to be a Chiefs fan, but hey, we've
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  still got time. How is it, you know, you just
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  hit a point. It is frustrating when you lose
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  a game, but it's not frustrating being a Chiefs fan.
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  We still have it better than anybody, possibly not anybody
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  ever. OK, the New England Patriots,
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  they're back and they've got Drake Main.
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  He looks pretty good. But the Chiefs were on his seven
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  straight years of with our chance of going to the Super
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  Bowl with one win and five last six we've been to the Super
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  Bowl. So it's really not frustrating.
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  It's just that we're not losing at all.
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  You have a point, you have a point.
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  We're just so accustomed to not losing that we lose a game and
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  we're like, what the heck? This is not what we signed up
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  for, boys. Come on.
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  But yes, a wonderful Gary, Awesome, awesome.
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  Well, thank you so much for your time today, for your insight,
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  all of the things to all of our listeners out there.
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  If you want to get a hold of any of Gary's links, anything that
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  we talked about today, make sure you check out the show notes
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  down below. I have every single one of them
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  linked down below for you guys so that you can look at that
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  weather Intelligence Report. You can look more into other
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  things that are going on as we prepare for for this weather
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  pattern setting up for this next year and as we continue to go
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  through these next four weeks of it getting setting up and
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  evolving. So Gary, thank you for your time
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  to all of our listeners. We will see you all tomorrow on
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  another episode. Have a good one y'all.