Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/31/26: Trump Floats Iran Surrender, Trump Rock Bottom Polls, Gas Prices Spike

Transcript

3/31/26: Trump Floats Iran Surrender, Trump Rock Bottom Polls, Gas Prices Spike · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal.
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• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: We have an amazing show for everybody today.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What do we have, Crystal, another wild morning. We've got
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: a Trump truth to reckon with. He says, he's very
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: much indicating he'll just walk away from Iran, leaving the
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: straight of hor moves closed. He tells the world to
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: go get their own oil, that he's done with it.
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: So I don't even know what.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: To begin with this, so go we'll get into that. Also,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: it maybe quite related to these things. Some of the
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: worst poll numbers, if not the worst poll numbers of
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: either terms of his presidency. So there's a lot going on.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: There's some new analysis too of just how dire things
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: may be for him and where we are heading. National
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: average for gas is officially over four dollars a gallon.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Our oil analyst is going to join us to talk
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: about the level of disruption and what would happen even
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: if Trump does unilaterally taco now what that will mean
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: for the future. Meanwhile, global ramifications of that oil blockade
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: are spreading rapidly, so we'll take a look at that.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Israel yesterday passed a death penalty bill that is only
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: for Palestinians in another new disgusting low. We also are
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: going to pick up the story we tried to do
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: yesterday we just couldn't put it in the show about
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: the IDF assaulting a CNN photojournalist and the fallout from that.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: And then had to take a look at Trump's ballroom.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Apparently it's coming with a new nuclear bunker. Yeah, great timing, really.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: Time the tinfoil back on. It was on yesterday, Go home,
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: But like, maybe we put it back. Maybe all those
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: people who have come up to me in the last
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: several months to tell me that there's a data data
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: center under the ballroom.
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: Maybe they were on something.
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: Maybe they were right, says the stuff out loud, all right,
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: before we get to that. Thank you everybody's been supporting
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• 2:47
  Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and start then with the unilateral potential
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: Trump Taco and let's put this up here on the screen,
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: literally breaking as of this morning.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Let me go ahead and read it.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: of the strange were moves, like the United Kingdom which
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran. I
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: have a suggestion for you. Number one, buy from the US.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: We have plenty. Number two, build up some delayed courage.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: Go to the Strait and just take it. You'll have
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: to start learning how to fight for yourself. The USA
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: won't be there to help you anymore, just like you
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: weren't there for US. Iran has been essentially decimated. The
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: hard part is gone. Go get your own oil. This
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: fits very much with a late breaking story last night.
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: Let's go and put the Wall Street Journal up there
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: on the screen. Alex Ward over at the Journal, I
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: highly recommend the follow by the way, excellent reporter. He
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: was also the person who broke the roe versus Wade
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: story back in the day, so I highly recommend. I've
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: known him for a long time, he says. Trump tells
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: aids he's willing to end war without reopening horror moves.
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: So if you put these two things together, it does
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: indicate that at the current moment, that is what Trump
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: wants us to think or is potentially doing. So this
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: is at least what Donald Trump is telegraphing now publicly
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: and or privately behind the scenes. Everybody do in mind
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: that all of this could be an elaborate psyop as
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: we have seen now multiple times from the Trump administration,
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: potentially trying to signal that the war is over. Well
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: if we continue to follow all of the ground troops
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: in the region. So I no way want to say
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: that this is the end, but let's pretend that it is.
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: Let's pretend that it's Taco Tuesday. And of course stock
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: futures are surging right now as you and I.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Speak over this. Should they really be surging?
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is a genuine Suez moment for the
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: United States.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Let's think about this.
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: The US military went into this campaign unilaterally with Israel,
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: with a singular objective, unconditional surrender, the decapitation of the
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: Iranian regime, a replacement of that regime, a reopening, recontrol
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: of the Straits of Hormuse. At one point we floated
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: a reinsurance scheme backed by the United States and the
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: United States Navy, sailing freely through the strait. Now, after
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: over a month, there is now an effective declaration. Trump says, well,
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: we have actually changed the regime because we killed the
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: original Ayatola.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Now we have a new Iatola whose.
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: Father was murdered and his brother and his wif I
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: mean it can't even go through the list of family members.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: The guy who had the fatwa against nuclear weapons, he's
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: gone the hardline. IRGC is all in control. The Straits
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: of Hormuz is under Iranian control. Who is allowing selectively
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: certain ships that were either Pakistani or Chinese or any
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: country which is willing to make a deal with them.
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: They passed a piece of legislation yesterday in their parliament
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: saying that they have officially approved the toll program, almost
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: like the Egyptians in the control of the Suez crisis.
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: And then Trump comes in and he says that we
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: are basically will be done because you didn't join us. So,
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: first of all, was a war of choice. It's not
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: like we needed anybody. Allegedly, we were told we could
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: do this all by ourselves. We didn't necessarily need anyone
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: to come in. We blew up the global economy quite literally.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: We're going to tell everybody just in the one month
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: of what it looks like Asia, eighty percent of oil
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: through the Straits of Hormus goes to Asia, only fifty
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: percent goes to China. The rest of them are extremely
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: critical US Allies LNG, which is heavily reliant europe Is
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Oh well, sorry, seventy
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: percent of Qatar's ros Lafon gasp, that's gone just evaporated
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: for the next four to five years. Good luck paying
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: for it though, by the way, So what this means
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: is that the US came in here, didn't even military
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: accomplish its objectives. Basically got all of our bases like
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: destroyed and or hit.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: We lost all these strategic aircraft.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: We humiliated ourselves really in terms of what people expected
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: the United States to be able to do. Now, we
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: could finish the job with ground troops, we decided we
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: don't want to do that, and we tell the Europeans
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: and the Asians, go get your own oil. So what's
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: more likely, Crystal, that the UK and the EU and
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: Japan and South Korea are going to form a coalition
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: of the unwilling and go and militarily take the Straits
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: of horror moves, or Tehran is going to be like
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: pay up, let's go, and by the way, no more dollars.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: You're going to denominate it and won any US flagship.
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: You're never coming through here. If you're sailing to Israel,
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: you're not coming through here either. And this is the
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: new new sheriff in town in the Straits of Horror moves.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: What's that sound like to you? That sounds like a
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: strategic victory right now. So far for the Iranian Empire
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: they get two or the Iranian regime potentially used to
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: be an empart. So we've got the Iranian regime which
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: is now re empowered, massively rich already as a result
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: of the war and spiking oil prices, control over the
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: Straits of hor moves. They stood up and survived over
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: the big bad American military and Israel. I mean, this
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: is a strategic nightmare, and yet somehow it is still
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: the preferable outcome. Yes, And that's that's what's so insane about, Yeah,
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: is we were really screwed either way, which is why
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: we never should have been in this war. I'm just
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: like thinking through all of the global ramifications and I'm like,
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: I cannot believe that we just blew up the global
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: empire and then are the global economy and told all
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: of these I mean, if you're the Gulf, I was
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: telling you that before.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: What do you do?
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: Now Iran has been firing all ship Now you got
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: to pay the piper.
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: Yes, Oh, why I was getting messed up. Just yesterday, Dubai.
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: They got more missiles yesterday in the first week of
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: the war. Do you just pay it?
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I guess.
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: I mean, and you bought all these billions of all
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: these troops are here, and we are stopping.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: If you're wanting to buy your Abu Dhabi, like your
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: whole brand is screwed.
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: It's over. I mean, it's okay.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: So again, very possible that this is just a siop
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: and some other thing is in the works.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: We'll put that.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: But I do, actually, I actually do believe that Trump
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: would really like to taco.
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: That he all the reporting.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: About he's trying to find an off ramp blubble, that
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: he's bored. I mean, I think that is all true.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: And you see, the bond markets are a problem for him,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: the oil markets are a problem, the stock market's problem for him.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: His poll numbers are tanking. He's looking at this and
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: going like, all right, we need to wrap this up.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: So I do give it some credence that this is
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: possible that he's like, all right, we're just going to
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: walk away.
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: So let's be really totally clear.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: If he walks away and leaves the straight up hor
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: moves in Iranian hands for them to do with as
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: they wish. It's a surrender. I mean it is a surrender,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: the ultimate surrender.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, because the roll of the US Navy, why do
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: you and I pay the tax as we pay, is
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: to guarantee commerce on the high seat. That is literally
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: the point that's of the empire. That's why Japan and
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: South Korea and all these other countries are like, okay,
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: let's do all this in exchange. You guarantee our security
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: and our ability not to be Chinese vassals. I mean,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: what are we doing here now?
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: So we came in Okay, let's just remember. Let's rewind
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: back when you know, Trump announces in his baseball cap
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: with Auntie on before we going to a party of
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: mar A Lago, announces that he started this war. Okay,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: he's calling on the Rannie and people to rise up, right,
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: so regime change, like not the fake kind that he's claiming,
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: but the real like, oh, we're going to have somebody
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: who's you know, a puppet and a mena boll to
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: our interest. Blah blah blah. That's what the original goal was.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: That and to you know, destroy or make render impossible,
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: or do some deal with them to make sure that
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: they're never going to pursue a nuclear weapon. Okay, those
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: things are off the table. Then the war became about
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: reopening the thing that the war closed, the Strait of Hormuz.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Now there's that is also off the table. And this
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: is why you could never get a straight answer out
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: of them after the initial days of the war of
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: what the objectives actually are. So now what are we
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: going to I mean Trump will claim mission a combo.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: We decimated them and we set them back. No, what
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: you did is you strengthen them. There's zero doubt about it. Yes,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: they're you know this and that got hit and there
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: were you know, tons of civilians. It was horrible, right,
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: there's no doubt that there were losses on the Iranian side.
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: But if they come out.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Of this with control over the Strait of Hormuz, this
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: is like an ability for them to play in the
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: world and have the sort of sanctioned power that we do. Right,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: if some other country is messing with them, if some
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: countries you know, supporting a genocide and Goza or whatever,
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: they can wield this now as a weapon they can
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: throw their weight around. Not to mention, Okay, they still
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: by all accounts, still have all of the you know,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: highly imburseranium and nuclear material and know how do you
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: think that they may pursue a nuclear weapon now to
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: make sure they don't get messed with again? I certainly
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: would if I was them. So I mean, what are
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: we like? So okay, so let's play the sound. I'm
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: just trying to think of, like what all the implications are.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: So you're right, the Arabs, like Golf Arab States totally fucked,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: totally screwed, Like what are they going to do?
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: Okay, all these bases the Iranians listen, cot me Ron,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: I've got you by the balls, and you're Saudi Arabia
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: and you're you a every US troop on the ground
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: gotta go.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: Now what I mean Trump says he doesn't want to win.
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: What they right? And this is what they said.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Their original goal was, we want all US troops out
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: of the region. We want these bases closed. And we
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: all look at that and we're like that's insane. Now
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: It's like is it is it insane? Is thereelsund here floating?
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: Hey?
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: We want the US basis on our soil, which would
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: be a major I mean, that's a major change in
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: terms of their orientation. Our orientation basically means like the
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: merging of our states completely. That's a whole other can
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: of worms, but that could be where we're heading. If
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: these goldfab states are like, you know what, this is
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: not going to work for us, Like you made us
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: a target and then you screwed everything up for us
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: and then you cut and run. Okay, So that's the
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Gulf Arab states for the israelis Iran is not in chaos.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: They did not collapse the state.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: They strengthened the logic of pursuing you know, longer range
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: ballistic missiles and a nuclear weapon. Do you think the
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: Israelis are just gonna sit back and say that's cool,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: We're gonna let that happen.
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: No, they're not. You're still gonna have the same.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Logic on the Israeli side from Netnyahu and his whole crew,
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: and they're going to continue to be trying to, you know,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: drag us back in the same sort of thing that
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: played out here where reportedly Israel Is going to strike
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: around anyway. And so our leaders were like, well, I
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: guess we're gonna do it too. Are we just gonna
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: let them get hit by Iranian missiles like that? So
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: that's you know, a whole situation, I mean, the whole
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: thing is. And then of course, in terms of the
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: rest of the world, they look at us, this global superpower,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: allegedly nuclear armed, global superpower, and we were like opening
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: the strait of more moves. It's going to be too
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: militarily to cole feyo. You think they're gonna go and
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: and of course not, of course not. They're gonna look
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: at this and go Okay, China, okay. I ron like
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: trying to make some deals. This is a new world order,
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, not truly is what we're looking at here.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: And I know that may sound really grandiose, but this
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: level of humiliating defeat at the hands of you know,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, Iran is a large country. It's sort of
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: like a middle income country. They have clearly military power.
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: But really they just.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: Out thought us, They outplanned us, they outthought us. They
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: were much smarter, much more strategic. And Trump came barreling
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: in thinking that he could do a few day excursion
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: and get some you know, w before his meeting with
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: China and then it be all good and he's an
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: idiot and he's a fool, and they revealed it.
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: This is why part of me is like, why is
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: that we shouldn't be too declarative? Is because all of
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: this is about to become real obvious to NATO, to Japan,
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: to South Korea, to the Gulf Saudi. I mean, yea,
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: MBS and MBZ are gonna be on the phone today
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: right being like listen, man, this is a this is
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: you can't you can't let leave us hanging like this.
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: And that's why every single report out of the golf
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: is they're like, finish the job, finish the job. We
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: can't live this way. So now what So when Trump
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: tells the UK and Japan and South Korea to go
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: get your own oil, they're like, oh, we'll get it
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: all right, but we're gonna pay the Iranian hostage toll
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: whatever they want will pay.
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: And denominated in Chinese.
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: And what are they going to say, I mean, what's
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: America going to say? They're going to be like, oh, well,
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: you can't do that because X, Y and Z. And
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: now this is why this is like empire ending in
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: a way. Is the Japanese are going to be like, okay,
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: our security guaranteur or ninety percent of our oil?
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: What do we do?
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: What choice would you make? I mean, this is when
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: your your actual back is up against them.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: I mean Pakistan is already they're dead making deals with them,
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: right because they are so screwed.
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: One hundred percent of Pakistani LNG comes from Qatar. They
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: don't have a choice, right. This is it's it's literally
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: existential Bangladesh, all of the India. I mean already you've
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: watched what happens with Russia. I mean yeah, by the way,
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: even Russia in terms of their strength that's come out
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: of this war, Like I don't accept that Russia is
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: an enemy of the United States. You could say adversary
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: largely as a result of our own creation. But whatever,
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: it has now proven its ability. And this is.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: We're strengthening this Iran China Russia alliance and that.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Not so right, then let's think about China.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: So China is going to come in and say we
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: have to denominate all of the current all of the
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: exchanges have to be denominated in one fifty percent of
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: our oil comes through the Strait, so they will make
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: a deal where they massively enriched Tehran. They could create
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: they've already created the parallel banking system to get around
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: US sanctions. They could create an entire exchange. I mean,
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: this is the backbone of America of what we really
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: are is not just the strength of the dollar, but
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: all of the power of the swift sanctions and our
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: ability to compel commerce across the globe because of the
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: strength of our consumer economy. And that's part of why
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: I go. He may want this today, but soon their
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: phone is going to ring, and that's part of the reason.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: With those troops in the region, he might just have
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: to use them. He might say, you know what, what
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: we're all talking about here is so unacceptable that we
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: actually do have to do some sort of not we
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: don't have to, but they will want to do well
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: because ground invasion, because you just can't. You cannot have
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: this well.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: And you are all of these critical US allies, and you.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Could end up with a scenario where we, you know,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: effectively surrender and then Israel and Iran are still warring
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: and we're right back in. I mean, that's another possibility
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: here is you know, after the Twelve Day War, something
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: we warned about and many others who were opposed to
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: go into war with Iran to begin with, that this
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: is not over. Like, yes, Trump is declaring mission accomplished.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: And it was much you know, cleaner way to wrap
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: it in a bow than anything that he thought of
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: for this new phase of the Iran war. But what
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: we said is you have not fundamentally changed the logic
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: coming from the Israelis, and the way that Trump is,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: you know, very susceptible to be lord into. And again
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: I hate using this language because obviously it's on him,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: but clearly the Israelis were pushing for this right and
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: we knew that after the Twelve Day War the fundamental
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: logic was not going to change, which is why I
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: don't think any of us were surprised when we ended
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: up back. Horrified, yes, surprised, no. And so if he
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: does walk away now you still have a situation.
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: Not only has the logic not.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: Changed, the logic has gotten worse for the Israelis. Are
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: stronger for the Israelis in terms of continuing to pursue
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: this war because you've got you know, more of an
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: impetus to actually pursue a nuclear weapon.
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: You've got a.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: Harder line regime, and now you've handed them this extraordinary power. Now,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: I will say, the Israelis you're talking about, oh well,
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: we'll create a pipeline. You know that bypasses that that
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: takes a lot of fucking time.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you wiped out with the drone right exactly.
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, such a great point.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: But even if you give that credence, I mean, the
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: time alone, and so in the next decade, we're just
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: gonna deal with that. I mean, you'd be better off
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: just going a whole hog on like nuclear and renewable energy,
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: versus thinking that some pipeline is going to save you.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: At this point, not to mention, I mean, Israeli society
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: has its own problems.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: And I don't know.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: I I agree with you that I do believe if
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: I had to say, I think Trump does. He wants
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: to be done with this. He's trying to find an
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: off ramp. There's a lot of reporting in that regard.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: He's been floating various things, trying to, you know, trying
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: to basically like will a deal into being, project some
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: sort of strength, pretend like these ships that are passing
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: through the Straight of Hord moves because other countries are
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: making deals with iron like this is some gift to him.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: He's trying to figure something out, but he has really
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: this is Robert Pate. He is in an escalation trap.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: It is a trap. And if he walks away now,
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: the repercussions may be such that he just can't stomach it,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: and the you know, the countries surrounding us, that our
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: allies also can't stomach it, and the business world can't
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: stomach it. And so there's going to be tremendous pressure
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: on him to continue this thing and try to I
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: don't know, I mean. And that's the other thing is,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: let's say he could he okay, you know he hears
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: from everybody. He's like, all right, I guess I gotta
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: keep going with that thing, with this thing.
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: What does that mean?
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: Because the seizing of the nuclear material is a fool's
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: errand and insane. The seizing of the islands just meshes
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: you further, whether it's carg Island or these UAEI or
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: whatever like that just meshes you further. That's no solution.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: The only solution is like a full scale ground invasion.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: Even then it's not really a solution. But this is
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: the corner that he's backed himself into. And it is
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: a disaster. I mean, it's disaster for the world. I
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: mean we're like, we're going to suffer here in the US,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: but people around the world. We're going to talk about
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: this later, like you know, developing countries around the world.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: The level people are going to starve to death, Like
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: there's gonna be places where you just can't buy fuel.
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: The level of demand destruction that would be required is
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: just you know, shocking.
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: It might not starve now because of the taco, but
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: it's one of those where, look, we may have an
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: end to the actual crisis, but this is a full
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: blown like this is the Pandora's box. I mean, this
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: is why you shouldn't get into any of this in
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: the first place. We have a lot of elements here.
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: I'll skip most of them. But let's just make sure
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: again that we set the table that there's still a
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: war going on with Iran. Let's put a two up
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: here on the screen just to show all of you.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: This is video that came out just yesterday. This is,
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: by the way, what makes me very skeptical that this
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: unilateral taco might happen. So this was a massive air
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: strike bunker busting bombs dropped by the United States just
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: yesterday on an Iranian AMMO depot which was in Isfahan,
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: which is near of course, all those nuclear facilities in Iran.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: Now here's the thing. Originally there was some cope and hope,
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: honestly that there would They were like, oh, we finally
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: hit the missile city. The Pentagon even confirmed this is
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: an ammunition dump with artillery and other things. And that
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: is what made me think, Look, you can strike an
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: AMMO dump with bunker buster bombs, not the missile city.
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: Now you probably would if you could, but why would
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: you do that, especially in the area where you have
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: these nuclear facilities and some sort of potential nuclear operation
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: was going to happen, So keep your eyes open. You know,
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: the unilateral TACO could also still happen even after some
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: sort of potential nuclear operation that's happening there.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: The other ground, the other reading of this, so one
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: reading of it is that yeah, this is you know,
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: Isfahan is where they think a lot of the nuclear
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: material is at this point, and so you could be
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: trying to you know, degrade their capabilities there for some
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: eventual you know, commandos coming in and trying to seize
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: the nuclears heire all that stuff. Okay, that's one possibility.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: The other possibility is Trump shared this untrue social which
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: makes it more noteworthy because clearly wanted.
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: To highlight like, oh, look at this big explosion. You know.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: The other possibility is this is just him trying to
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: show like, you know, oh, look at this grand display
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: of how much we've done, the mated them, etc. Because
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: it was a large explosion. So I don't know, but
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: I think either of those interpretations.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Take it for what you will.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: You also, look, now we have this truth the taco stuff.
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: It's everywhere. Let's put a three. Let's go ahead and
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: play it. This was Caroline Levitt telling everyone just yesterday. Well,
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: the President said four to six weeks. We're on day thirty,
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: so we're on track. Let's take a listen. President Trump
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: findicially said about four weeks. Secretary of State review on
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: Friday Befoort we said it might be another to to four.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Is to to four the current full part that the
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: administration is thinking.
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: With respect to the timeline.
• 22:33
  Speaker 5: Again, the President, Commander in chief the Pentagon has always
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: stated four to six weeks estimated timeline for Operation Epic Fury.
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: We're on day thirty today, So.
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: Again you do the math on how much longer the
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: Pentagon needs to fully achieve the objectives of Operation Epic Fury,
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: which I will reiterate.
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: So there, she says, laying out the timeline. Secretary Headset
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: is briefing literally right as we're all talking here. I
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: haven't seen anything exactly noteworthy, but he has continued to
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: say Iran should try to make a deal because we're decimating.
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: We are the people that are making sure, he said,
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: we are like you know, bringing them to the table,
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: negotiating them with bomb So you could see that the
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: messaging has shifted dramatically.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: We also should go to a seven.
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: This again was a little bit of a preview of
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: the current truth social this morning. Here is Secretary of
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: State Marco Rubio an interview with Al Jazeera where he
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: again opens the door to well, maybe we don't have
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: to control the streets of Ramus. Other countries could do it.
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
• 23:30
  Speaker 6: The straits of Hormuz will be open when this operation
• 23:33
  Speaker 6: is over. It will be open, and it'll be open
• 23:34
  Speaker 6: one way or another. It will be open because Iran
• 23:36
  Speaker 6: agrees to abide by international law and not block the
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: commercial waterway, or a coalition of nations from around the
• 23:43
  Speaker 6: world and the region, with the participation of the United
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: States will make sure that it's open.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: So the Straits of Hormuz will be open. Iran either
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: agrees to abide by international law and not by the
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: international law from this administration. Come on, I know this
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: as fake as hell.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: I know you opened the war by murdering a bunch
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: of school girls and assassinating their head of state.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: And threatening to bomb nuclear right. Sorry, it's a bomb
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: like power plant.
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: Trump, literally yesterday it was like a blow up your
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: water plants. I mean, this is like textbook war crimes.
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: But whatever I said, international law is fake, and that's fine.
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: International law has always been fake. It's really all been
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: in terms of the norms and the enforcement ability of
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: being able to do so. We have decided to get
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: in bed with Israel, this rogue state and conduct ourselves
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: the way that we have. It always kind of has
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: been an illusion. We just decided to put the blinders
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: on and it's like, all right, well, if you're if
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: we're going to go about the world and we're going
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: to kidnap a duro and we're going to just you know,
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: come in, create a gigantic mess withdraw tell everybody else
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: to do. So who are we to tell the Iranians
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: exactly how are they going to govern the straits of Hormouse?
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: They will govern by force as we could do it too.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: You can invade and take it if you want to.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: It'd be a nightmare and a disaster. Yeah, part of
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: the reason you maybe you shouldn't gone in this mess
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: in the first place.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Well, and just really quick heg Sath is doing a
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: press briefing right now, and just a couple things that
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: we're noteworthy here.
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: I see this one clip of him.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: He says President Trump will make a deal he is willing,
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: and the terms of the deal are known to them.
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: If Iran is not willing, then the US War Department
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: will continue with even more intensity. So that's the messaging
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: they're putting out is continuing like this, Oh, we'll deal
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: with them, but we're going to come in with even
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: more you know, fire in fury or whatever is where
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: there's what he's still messaging this morning from the podium.
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so look very important just to put I just
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: I really am all over the place this morning, just
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: because I have to deal with the ramifications of what
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: this would mean. Also to make sure our audience understands
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: the war's still happening. The bombs are still dropping. Yeah,
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: it's not like the Israelis. Oh, they're doing just great.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: They just basically annexed a half of Lebanon. In case
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: anybody's wondering, Israeli empire, it's expanded the regional super think
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: about this this nation.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Since October seventh, they've expanded their order into.
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: Syria, I mean, remove the leader there. They're basically taking
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: half of Lebanon. They're basically taking I mean had the
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: West Bank. Now they're solidifying control over at Gaza.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Wow, you really you have to marvel at it.
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this country, which I don't want to say hijacked,
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: it was, you know, willingly given. I guess yeah, I
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: think about it. We will end our own empire and
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: create a new Israeli one. That's effectively been the net
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: policy if the current status quo remains as it is.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: Although the Israelis have their own vulnerability because they can
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: only act the way that they act because they have
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: our full and complete backing, it all turns and the
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: moment that that is taken away, then they are extremely vulnerable.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: So they have their own, you know, their own vulnerabilities.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: Here my heart breaks for them. Actually, I saw Ryan
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: was sharing this this threat on Twitter about you know
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: this whole like do they have a right to exist?
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: The state of Israel have a right to exist discourse,
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: And someone's pointing out, like, in what way are they
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: even a state?
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: Because the state would indicate that.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: There are borders and laws that are applied constantly to
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: the citizens of that state. So by the conventional definition,
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: Israel isn't even a state because of the way that
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: they operate. But that's another discussion for another day. I
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: mean another thing I wanted to point out because I
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: think it's relevant. You've now got two European allies, Italy
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: and Spain, who both said we are not allowing US
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: military planes to land at you know, base at our
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: bases and enjoy flyover rights. So I mean that's really significant.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: So it also tells you Italy is way bigger than
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Spain space. Yeah, Spain from the beginning has been like,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: you know, it's a left wing government, their adversary, like
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: they've been opposed from the beginning Italy coming out and
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: joining them and being like, yeah, we're done here too.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: That is highly significant and also shows you, you know,
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: shows you the way that our allies are feeling about
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: this and that they are also coming to a point
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: where they're like, Okay, whatever we're getting from the US,
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: it is not worth it because the costs that are
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: being imposed. I mean, the energy prices in Europe already
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: were high and now they're going even higher, so they're
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: in quite a bind tier as well well. And yeah,
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's to your point about like, let's
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: say we do walk away and just tell them go
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: get your own oil and good luck with the straight
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: ofform moves. They're going to be, you know, quite willing
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: I think to go and make a deal with Iran
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: at whatever terms are.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: People Marry no big fan of Europe, you know, I
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: would decouple on my own terms.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: These aren't the terms that I would do it on.
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: And let's think about Italy, all right, So Italy NATO
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: country it is. I think for US base, I want
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: to say four major US bases, probably fifteen thousand or
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: so troops, a major hub for africam operate. Remember Benghazi
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: and Libya and all were scrambling the jets out of Italy.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: It's kind of a critical US. No. Last time I
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: checked their own primeate. We'll get to this later on
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: the show. Their Defense ministers saying like he's like vague posting,
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: being like, I can't sleep at night because of the
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: things that I know that are coming. So there. Obviously,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: then they're facing a crisis. And it's not like their
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: economy was doing all that well even within the EU context.
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: So for them, high energy prices nightmares, a total disaster,
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: especially on top of what just happened with Russia and
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: with Ukraine. I guess, continuing on down this line, let's
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: just make sure that we get a couple more things
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: that are in here. Oh right, A eleven or sorry,
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: a twelve please. This also happened yesterday. This was the
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: Kuwaiti crude carrier, the Al Salmi, was directly attacked by
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: Iranians docked at the anchorage area of the Dubaiport in UAE.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: So yesterday the UAE took more missiles and incoming drones
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: than at any time since the first week of the war,
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: showing again Iran's projected ability or Iran's ability to continue
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: to project some force in the region and also to
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: be able to hit whatever, you know, tanker that they
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: want to. There is some confusing stuff around this tanker.
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: Apparently it was bound for China, so there's a lot
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: of reasons as for why Iran hit it. They may
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: have actually mistakenly targeted this carrier and another one that
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: was heading to Israel.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: I've also seen it could have been, you know, a
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: shrapnel from a missile in or something like that. I've
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: got another clip here from Hegseth that is noteworthy on
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: the Straight of Horror Moves significantly. Specifically, he says, on
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: the Straight of horm Moves, there are many more vessels
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: flowing through today than there were as the.
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: President has arranged. Oh my god.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: The President's been clear to Iran open it for business
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: or we have options, and we certainly do. There are
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: countries around the world who ought to be prepared to
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: step up on this critical waterway as well. It's not
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: just the United States Navy. Last time I checked, there
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: was supposed to be a big, bad Royal Navy that
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: could be prepared to do things like that as well.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: So he's pointing out this is an international waterway that
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: we use less than most, in fact, dramatically less than most.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: So the world ought to pay attention and be prepared
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: to stand up. President Trump's been willing to do the
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: heavy lifting on behalf of the free world. Oh thank
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: you so much, President Trump, to address this threat of Iran.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: It's not just our problems that going forward, even though
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: we have done the lion's share preparation to ensure that
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: that strait will be open. So, you know, sort of
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: consistent with what the reporting about Trump saying basically and
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: his true social being like, hey, you guys use this
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: more than us. Go and get the oil, you know.
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: But in other comments, hag Seth also said, you.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: Do they think we're living in eighteen ninety eight?
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: I know where the sun never sets on the British Empire, right,
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: look at the UK and their society.
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: I know the idea they want to go in.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: We can't do it, but we're gonna oh they're going
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: to do okay, right yeah, and then he also says
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: we'll negotiate with bombs.
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: He loves this line.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: Our job is to ensure we compel around to realize
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: that this new regime, this regime in charge, is in
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: a better place if they make that deal, and so
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: we'll continue. We're working hand in hand, but the primary
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: effort is a deal. We want the deal to be
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: accomplished if at all possible. If not, then we're prepared
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: to continue. So take from that what you want.
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: Look, I mean, we can't trust Trump's trust.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: This guy's just as idiots to take any of his
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: work seriously.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: I think this is what he wants to do. I
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: just don't agree it can be done. I mean, well
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: it can, it can, and then all the consequences that
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: we've laid out just are.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: But like and it's probably and those consequences are probably
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: best case scenario at this point. If Probably continue, it
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: only gets worse.
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: Well, let's then talk about the economic ramifications. We talked
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: about the empire ramifications. You've got the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: They're effectively being held hostage here now by Iran. They've
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: proven their capability to hit you.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: They have. I was listening to.
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: An episode this morning about the amount from odd Lot
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: shout out to them about Dubai and specifically the real
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: estate market.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: But they touched on the amount of forty percent.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Of global sovereign wealth is just the golf the big
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: four country out of the globe golf, almost all that
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: wealth is invested in US companies, from venture capital to
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: commercial real estate to private credit markets, which are having
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: their own problems right now. Now. Let's take Katar, the
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: guitar Sovereign wealth front right, Qiaqutar Investment Authority. Well, they
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: just took a seventeen percent haircut on their natural gas
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: stands to reason, they're going to take some haircut on
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: their flow of cash, which maybe means they can't fulfill
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: future like deals or other things. So let's call it
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: ten percent. Well, if ten percent of that money just
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: dries up, that's a lot of money. I mean, that's
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: billions of dollars, So what's that mean? And then you've
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: got high oil prices as a result of this shock,
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: potentially for years if Iran is just messing with the
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: oil market. So these golf economies will either be held
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: hostage or they'll have to pull back their investments here
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: in the United States, Japan, South Korea, all these Asian
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: countries which we're supposed to invest all this money here,
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: they are getting destroyed right now in their stock markets
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: and their economy. So just think about the ramifications for
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: all of us. I mean again, look, and our.
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: Economy is a house of cards, like it's basically ai speculation.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: It's like the whole economy and like gambling.
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: And for everybody saying, well I don't care about that,
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: I'm like, well, listen, guy, you know, oh, actually it'd
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: be a good thing. Yeah, I mean theoretically, you know
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: what it also means. It means you're gonna lose your job.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: It means you're gonna pay higher interest rates, it means
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: that you're gonna pay high gas prices. Like remember, they'll
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: be fine taking a ten percent haircut, can you realistically
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: afford to take that? The answers always know is that
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: the people at the top will be okay, they're largely
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: insulated from these decisions. But you know, when the bottom
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: falls out, then people get laid off, they lose their jobs,
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: can't buy a home, you can't buy a car. There's
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: it's a genuine nightmare. So look, that's what things stand. Obviously,
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: this is breaking situation. So you know, hopefully it still
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: as up to date whenever we release it.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: But that's it. Why don't we turn to polling? Just
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: why did Trump decide to do this.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is one piece of that puzzle.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: I think probably the markets are an even more important piece.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: But let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: This UGOV poll came out yesterday and it was a
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: real eye opener. Approval rating of thirty three percent. That
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: is about as low as I have ever ever seen it.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: Disapproval at sixty two percent. Now, this is a little
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: bit of an It's not that much of an outlier.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: It's a little bit of an outlier. But we've been
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: seeing a lot of polling coming in for him that
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: has the approval rating under forty percent. And in fact,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: if we put B three up on the screen, this
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: Nate Silver's analysis of his poll no cording to his
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: average and keeps us up on the screen for a
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: second because this chart is actually really useful. Cording to
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: his average, he now has Trump dipping under forty percent approwriting,
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: so thirty nine point seven percent I think for an
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: average of all the polls, the ones that are more
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: favorable to him and the ones that are less favorable
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: to him. And you can see quite clearly, first of all,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: the trajectory has just been consistently downward. So of course
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: there been you know, a little peaks and valleys in between,
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: but overall the story of his second term in office
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: is just down, down, down Now. The place where we
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: actually saw the steepest decline was after a liberation Day
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: and the terriffs, which is like wildly, wildly unpopular. And
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: then you can see though since the Iran War began,
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: you know, he was actually at a little sort of
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: localized peak there and it's just been downward ever since
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: the Iran War started. Nate Silver also tracking, you know,
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: the popularity of the Iran war and finding that it
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: is very unpopular. And usually Americans off a good war,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: so it's kind of historically unusual for this country to
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: have be negative on a war really from day one.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: The other thing here, Sager is uh, but put B
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: two up on the screen. So we called this because
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: it was obviously predictable. When Trump and Hagsett said, oh,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: we're going to need two hundred billion dollars to pay
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: for this war, and we're going to achieve it through reconciliation,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: well that means you have to balance it with cuts.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Elsewhere where are you going to get that money?
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: Healthcare?
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: Because that's basically, like the big if you're not going
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: to cut defence spending the other end, you can't cut
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: interest spending. In fact, that piece is going up interest
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: on the debt because of bond yield surging. The only
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: other place where you have a significant amount of funds
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: is health care. So they already cut health care significantly
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: back in the one Big Beautiful Bill, and they are
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: looking at taking another hatchet to health care Americans health
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: care in order to pay for the bombs, to you know,
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: to hit Iran and continue off.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: I don't I'm like, where would you even cut it from?
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: They said made deep cuts to I'm looking just at
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: even what would even potentially be.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean then you're you're really i mean they're
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: already cut into the bone, but you're really cutting into
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: the bone with that one.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: And it would be medicare advantage, okay, and this is
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: this is yeah, I mean.
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: Look you're cutting Medicare. Yeah, you're cutting Medicare. That's the
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: bottom line.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: You know, pro Medicare.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: Also, you know, Boomer's taking a little haircut right now, like, oh,
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: what a tragedy.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: Let's rather boomers have their healthcare then, uh, not to
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: mention sar. You know, you know, you know it's pennywise
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: and pound foolish because then you end up with people
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: at the emergency getting expensive again not getting prevented. I
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: know you understand these things, but in any case, let's
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: talk about how this is going to play for a
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: mid term election. We're cutting your healthcare so we can
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: bomb girls schools in Iran and you know wage Israel's war.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Oh, I'm sure it's more expensive. And yeah, any potential
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: housing that.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: You want to buy, I'm sure people are gonna gonna
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: love that. I'm sure people are going to be flocking
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: to the polls to you know, do their patriotic duty
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: of paying more gas at the pump and giving up
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: their health care so that more bombs can be dropped
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: on Iran.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I was thinking about it too at this point.
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: I actually do. I don't say I support more defense
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: spending because that would be the incorrect way of putting it.
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: I do not support an increase in the dollar amount.
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: I do genuinely think at this point we need like
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: a Manhattan level project to reform the entire defense industrial base.
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: Of course, under this administration, now it's pretty clear that
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: it's just not going to happen, largely because of the
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: people who are in charge, but also because of not
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: just corruption, the creative thinking and ability to take on
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: permanent Washington to basically, we need to make sure that
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: we're safe in a future conflict because what has Iran
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: really showed us is the asymmetry problem that we face
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: from drones, aircraft carriers with laundry fires, massively expensive interceptors.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Like this problem needs to be solved yesterday. It's literally
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: an urgent and a critical situation. And let's say if
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: we ever got into a conflict over something that really matters.
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: You know, one of the reasons why I think this
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: is so bad too, is now this poisons the well.
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: People are going to be like, well, hold on a secon,
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to give you more stuff so you
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: can go do more stupid shit like this total right,
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: I mean rational, right, They're not going to sit there.
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: I give you the same soft case that.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: They already get a trillion dollars. Do you know what
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: Iron's annual military budget is. It's ten billion dollars. We're
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: asking for two hundred billion just for this one excursion. Right,
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: they spent roughly ten billion dollars a year on them.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: I do think they upped it a little bit since
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: the Twelve Day War or whatever. But yeah, we whoever
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: it was that was on the show, that was like,
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: we built our military to fight the Cold War, and
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: it was more about like some big presentation of power
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: than it is the reality of modern warfare. And we've
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: seen the reality of modern warfare up close in the
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Ukraine Russia.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: Fy.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, even with Hamas and what they were able
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: to do. We've seen the reality of modern warfare. And
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: the more that we obliterated international law, frankly, the more
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: it benefits a country like Iran, because in an asymmetric fight. Yeah,
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: if you have the ability to pick off civilian targets
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: and you know, screw up an oil tanker, bomba refinery,
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: bomba water desalination plan, and no one can say shit
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: to you because they murdered your head of state and
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: bomb little girls schools, that is not actually to our benefit.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: That is to the benefit of smaller players who you know,
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: can use these low cost drums. And of course, the
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: number one drone producer in the world by far is China.
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: Yes, of course, See that's what I'm most worried about.
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: I don't think we need an increase in the defense budget.
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: We need to literally we could probably spend less if
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: we just took on the actual industrial base. Formed are
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: no doubt companies, you know, had an intelligent like DARPA
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: Manhattan level Manhattan Project style like investment and just be like, Okay,
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: this is a crisis. And by the way, everyone was
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: saying this is agitating for war with China. Listen, even
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: at this point, like with the whole Taiwan situation, I mean,
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: come on, I don't know how you can look at
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: this and say there's any chance of the US having
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: the ability, right.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not worried about that, you know what. I'm worried.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I'm worried about Japan. I'm worried about South Korea. I'm
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: worried about I mean, these are real allies.
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: These are people number three, number seven whatever economy in
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: the world, top ten trading partners. We're talking about Singapore, Vietnam,
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: the Philippines. I mean, these people who have been there
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: with us. This is the backbone of the US consumer market,
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: fifty percent of global GDP. That's the stuff that I
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: actually worry about, you know, at right now, and I
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: look at this and I go, oh, it's not going
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: to happen. I mean, and you could call Dumer or
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: any of that. But I genuinely believe that if we
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: could have done more in the Iran where we would
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: have it exposed all of these such so predictable problems.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: And it's like I said, for years we heard people
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: make fun of the Russians. It's like, what if we're
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: more like the Russians than we wanted to think.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: It turns out we are. That's just the truth.
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: And I mean, yeah, the level of changes will take
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: from our government, and the thing is we're democracy. We
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: have to convince people why this is necessary. And this
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: has actually poisoned the well for any future defense industrial
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: project is people are going to say, I'm not going
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: to give you more weapons to go out and fight
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: stupid wars. We should only have you know, if you
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: had a doctrine of like rearmament or reform in the
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: system without all of this insane adventurism, people would say, okay,
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: that makes sense, you know all of this. And of course,
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: by the way, two hundred billion of the one trillion
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: dollars is on tricare last time I checked, Like the
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: healthcare system.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: It's a disaster from everybody I've spoken to.
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, the level of reform and all that we
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: would need would be titanic. And also this is where
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: Doge comes into play. They poison the well on this
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: is you know, they never even looked over at the Pentagon. Yeah,
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: so I look at this present, I look at this
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: like polling now, and I just think about the overall,
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: like sweeping democratic effect that this is going to have.
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: People will very rationally not want to give a dollar
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: more to defense under this administration because they don't want
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: to see more things like this. And then in the interim,
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: we still got what three more years to go. Let's
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: put B three up there on the screen. From Nate Silver,
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: he makes a point. Trump's approval hits the thirties, can
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: his numbers get any lower? It's a it's a genuine question.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: It's one of those where what else could you? What
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: could you do to lift yourself out of this? I
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: don't think in modern history we've ever had a president
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: who has been at this low at this time and
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: had any meaningful recovery. Not Look, he's going to think
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: about legacy, but let's think also generally about the GOP
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: and about the ramifications. So if you see this type
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: of situation take place in I mean, this is where
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: the Senate starts to come into play. Right, this is
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: when's the last time we lived with something like this?
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: Oh eight, I want to say, oh eight, with the
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: financial crisis and Iraq. I mean that's when crazy shit happens.
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: Like that's when what were Democrats were getting elected in
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: like North Dakota. Right, Obama won North Dakota, didn't, didn't Arkansas, but.
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: He won, He won Indiana, Carolina, North Carolina.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: North Carolina.
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: He won North Carolina, didn't didn't like Arkansas have a
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: democratic center.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you know it was insand yeah, I
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: mean part of that is because it was pre like
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: full partisan realignment, so things like winning in Arkansas and
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: South Dakota were more possible. But yeah, I mean in
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: the two thousand and eight light like there were people
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: who won Eleia. You think about that, but no one
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: thought was going to be on the table. And you
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: know the other thing Nate Silver points out because this
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: question of like can you go even lower than the thirties,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: because his base famously very strong, very cold, like etcetera.
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: That is definitely the case. But he does point out that.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: The level of strong approval for Trump has really fallen off.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: So if you ask people, you know, you can give
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: people these options not just to prove disapproved, but strong
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: disapprove or strong approve week approve week disapprove. And the
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: strong approve has fallen from you know, at the beginning
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: of the term, it was at thirty six percent.
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: Now is only twenty two percent.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: And that's all his base going from like, yes, make
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: America great again to being like, I think he's better
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: than Kamala you know.
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: I mean that's and.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: That's significantly the only cope that you have left.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: And in a midterm election, that's really significant because look,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: these are all people. Anybody who approves of Trump is
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: going to vote Republican if they come.
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: Out and vote.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: But if you're feeling like, eh, this is not that great,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: are you going to take the time to come out
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: and vote. I mean, it looks and that's why.
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: Also the same scenario, yeah, is you have all these
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: disappointed Democrats and they're like, hey, you said you would
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: get us out of a rack that didn't happen. You
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: said you would end the war in Afghanistan. We're sending
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: more troops to Afghanistan, where you just fucked up my healthcare. Yeah,
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know I'm not happy about this.
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And so I mean it's look the midterms. Democrats
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: just won yet another seat in Florida. It was like
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: really close. It was in a Trump plus eleven district.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: This is different than the one that has that represents
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: mar A Lago. This is another Florida special election seat
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: the Democrats just won. I think that means that they've
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: flipped thirty one seats in since Trump's election and Republicans
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: have flipped zero. I mean, it's very clear where things
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: they're trending. The only question is what sort of what
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: sort of things Trump's going to do to try to
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: mess with the elections. But I have to say, at
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: this point I'm less worried about that because it's one
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: thing when things are marginal, you can screw with things
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: enough that it makes a difference. It's looking increasingly like
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: things are not going to be marginal.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Well, also big to create.
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: Twenty four and twenty twenty six will be the two
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: big too reg elections, which is really funny. But then
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: let's think about you know, generally what that even means politically,
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: this is this would be two thousand and eight level
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: sea change, except within the Democratic Party. There's been all
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: kinds of learning within the Republican Party. I have no idea.
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't see a scenario where there are
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: more Tom Tillis types who are willing to buck Trump.
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: But if anything, it'll probably narrow the faithful down to
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: like an extremely small group. But it could be years
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: then in the wilderness, like, yeah, those are wilderness years
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: where six years, eight years out of power. I mean,
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: who knows right? And all kinds of crazy stuff happens, saga,
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: what do you.
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: What do you make of?
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Sorry, what do you make of all these poor about
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: like oh jd Vance is trying to bring the word
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: a close and he's not happy and he said you
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: better cut it down or whatever? What is that coming
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: from his team trying to separate or what is the
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: Word's coming?
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: So I think it's I think I have no inside
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: knowledge as people you might suspect many people.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Are very upset with me right now.
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: But my theory, and this is based on a little
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: bit of like observation and knowledge of the dynamic. A
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: lot of people who were his boosters are very worried
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: about his potential candidacy, and so that is a very convenient.
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: Now here's the problem, though, those leaks, while could be
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: important for him in the future, are actually extremely detrimental
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: to him in the interim because any report that the
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: vice president's you know, straying away from the president, is
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: very bad for him in the immediate term. At the
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: end of the day, the calculus is empirically correct. Politically,
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: he has to chain himself at the hip with Trump.
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: That's why whatever Trump does, he has to different. Did
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: you see him given the Iraq you know, comment in
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: the situation room about a suicide bomber.
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: Oh god, yeah.
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: I was like, oh, okay, so we're doing this now. Yeah.
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: What I was like, just imagine if they've got suicide
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: vests that are nuclear bombs and they get It's like.
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's one of those where I'll tell you, look,
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: I've been shocked by a lot. I see that and I'm.
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: Like, wow, yeah, like that's.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: That's what we're doing now.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: But that's evidence of the point of this dramatically difficult dynamic,
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: which is you have to change yourself to if he
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: loses his access to Trump, you lose everything. The vice
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: presiden s hees an irrelevant job. Ask Kamala Harris, John
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: Nance Garner, FDR's vice president. It's not worth a warm
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: bucket of piss, I believe is what he said. He
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: hated it, absolutely hated it. And so it's really only
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: what the president decides to give you. Now, look, there's
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: a various different schools of thought, because clearly the president
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: dosn't really give a shit what he thinks very much
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: whenever it comes to foreign policy, and it's just going
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: to make you go out and humiliate himself. But I
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: do think a lot of the people who are around him,
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: let's say consultants and others, are either either leaking it
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: or they're trying to like prop up this type of
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: messaging to preserve that optionality in the future. But honestly,
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: the smart play at this, I mean we're talking now,
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: who knows what things will look like in three years.
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: I've seen sora Aba Marii with a guest we've had
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: on he's very close with JD. He wrote a piece
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: and he's like, maybe you won't run in twenty twenty eight,
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: maybe you would run in twenty thirty two, Like some
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: sort of Nixon style comeback, you know, spend a couple
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: of years in the wilderness. Let Margot Rubio be the
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: heir to Trump, you know. Enjoy yeah, enjoy right, you
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: know all I want to He's having a baby this year,
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: He's going to have four kids, easy excuse. I want
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: to spend more time with my family, my young family.
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: I could see that as well. So I really have
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: no idea. I mean, if you were asking me today,
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: that would be a smart play. At the same time,
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: in politics, it's all about timing, like, yeah, we're only
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: going to be vice president once. People may not care
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: who you are five.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: Years from I think the thing I'll say is that
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: for Trump, it is not a good sign that the
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: heir apparent, which is obviously your vice president, either him
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: or his staff, think that it may be politically advantageous
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: for them to try to create some distance from the mayor.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: It's been the you know, the king maker in the
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: Republican Party.
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: But this is why vice presidents are terrible candidates. They
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: just shouldn't run like they really. If you look in history,
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: who are all the vice presidents who really got screwed?
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: Gore Harris, I mean, potentially JD. There's I mean, there's
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: a few successful campaigns, but like that be a bush right,
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: even then he was you know, he's riding off the
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: coatails of Reagan. When he's to stand on his own
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: two feet, he gets a bitch slapped by Bill Clinton.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Right, and Ron Rose health. You really can see in.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: Like vice presidents empirically then are kind of bad candidates
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: because they're so chained to the status quo.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you get lucky, especially.
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: In the modern time.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: It doesn't work, especially in the modern era where people
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: are just disgusted with the stuff we have. Change election
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: after change election. But I mean all of all of
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: the little leaks that they're putting out or whatever they're doing.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, at the end of the day, when you
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: decided to cozy up to Trump and be his guy
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: and defend it like you placed your bet, well, there's
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: that that would be the you know, that would be
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: the lane. And it wasn't in bad bed politically because
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: he has been so dominant in terms of the Republican Party.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: But I just think, I mean, it's very possible a
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Republican project is just destroyed for quite a while for anyone,
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: whether it's him, or Rubio or even Tucker Carlson.
• 51:12
  Speaker 7: Or or whatever.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: Things changed rapidly in American politics.
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: A decade from now, I mean a decade ago, you're
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: really going to say Trump is going to stick around
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: still be the president of the United States. No, nobody
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: would say that, right, Remember forty more years, so that
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: never make grand pronouncements about it's over forever. It could
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: be over in the interim, six to eight years, something
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: like that. And I think American history, modern American history
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: shows us genuine dominance would be the FDR to Truman
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: of about what was that twenty something years twenty four
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: years right of democratic rule. That's about as good as
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: you can get, I think in America. And so yeah,
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: large majority things change very rapidly. But for Vance, I
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: mean I actually was thinking about this earlier, not started
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: going on a bit of a tangent. He was at
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: a donor retreat yesterday with a lot of tech people
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: and a lot of them are very pro AI, and
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: I was like, you know, that's like the wrong side
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: of that issue, right, So you've I mean, it's not
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: me saying this, like Republican voters are like, hey, I
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: don't want these data centers here right voters period, right
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: voter's period. But I'm saying even Republican voters, they are
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: not on board with a lot of the AI policy out.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: Of this current White House. They're not paying attention per se.
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: But the data center is gonna be a critical issue,
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: I think, especially in an energy crunch after this nonsense. Yeah,
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: we're gonna pay higher bills to make sure that Google's AI.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: Can you know, create black Nazis in the Gemini Like, No,
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: we're not doing that. Yeah, So I was thinking about
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: that too. About I actually think the insurgent lane in
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: the Republican Party is probably more open than ever before.
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: Like somebody could do to the Republican Party today what
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: Trump did. Somebody has to be so disconnected from the
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: system to be able to stand on the stage and
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: be able to be like Donald. No one's ever told
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: you this, mister Vice President. Iran was a disaster. You know,
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: maybe need somebody to be able to say that.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: I mean maybe, But at this point we're still at
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: a place where the Republican base, right, they may not
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: be in love.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: But their day, yeah, let's say years from now.
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: Possible, that's possible.
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: It probably couldn't happen in twenty twenty eight, and maybe
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: it can't really happen while Trump is still alive, but yeah,
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: look he's eighty.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: You know, who knows ten years from now what that
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: would look like.
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: So yeah, same thing like Iraq. Ten years later, somebody
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: can come along, let's say any Trump lined official is
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: running and tell the truth, and just say the truth
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: what happened with Iran?
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: I maybe wish casting. I don't know how things will
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: work out.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: Obviously, last one I'll make put sorry B three Nate
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: Silver's thing back up on the screen for the third
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: time here. But I want to make a point about
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: look at each of these, each of these moments that
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: you know where he really suffers a significant decline. So
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: first you have the Liberation Day announcement. So none of
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: these are external crises. These are all things that Trump
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: himself did, right. So the Liberation Day tariffs dreadfully unpopular
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: and a chaotic mess. Even you know, were people who
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: are sympathetic to targeted tariffs.
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: This was idiotic.
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: Justice Department declares Epstein investigation over again. The whole Epstein thing,
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: total own goal mess, disaster, really damaging to his brand.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: Government shutdown begins again. These are you know, political problems
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: that he could have handled differently. Then you have Renee
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: Good killed and of course Alex pretty a week or
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: so after this was again all because of his choice
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: to occupy the city of Minneapolis, after Nick Shirley does
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: his like Somali fraud thing, and then the Iran War starts.
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: I mean, in a sense, he's been so fortunate.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: There haven't been a lot of really any major external
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: crises in this administration.
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: This is all of his own making, every.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: One of these decisions, and Doge was not even on
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: there was also ended up being you know, a total
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: cluster and profoundly unpopular, etc. Even though it started off
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: with people sort of open and receptive to it. So
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's why I do think that the damage
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: to the Republican Party will be could be relatively severe,
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: because you know, it's one thing, like you're dealing with coronavirus.
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: It's not your fault, and it's everyverybody struggling to deal
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: with it, you know. I Mean, obviously, there were moves
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: that were made by the United States of America that
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: helped to spark the Ukraine Russia War, but that ultimately
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: is also like an external event, at least is perceived
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: that way by the general public. These are all choices
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: that he made, that every single one of these frickin
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: people were out there defending. So I mean, that's part
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: of why.
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: It's very Iraq level. Yeah, very similar, that's right, why
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: Iraq just nuked them, that's right.
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: And the Rock started so much more popular and honestly
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: had less of a direct impact on our lives, and
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: this is already having outside Obviously, you know, there were
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: you know, severe casualties and American service members who were killed.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: But unfortunately, the reality of service in this country at
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: this point is that it's confined too. It's sort of
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: like segregated off from a lot of the population. So
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: in any case, you know, certainly he's looking at these
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: polls and feeling like things are not going too great,
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: which part of what played into potentially the attempted TAKO.
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: That's right. All right, we've got our friend Rory standing by,
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: let's get to it. Joining us now is our great
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: friend Rory Johnston. He is the founder of Commodity Context
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: on subsect, which we highly recommend everybody go to subscribe to.
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: There will be a link down in the description. Thanks
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: for joining us, man, appreciate it.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks for having me back.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: All right, so Rory, let's start with your reaction to
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: the Trump taco It's taco Tuesday.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Let's put this up here on the screen.
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: of the Straits of Hornmus, like the United Kingdom, which
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: refused to involve to a capitation of Iran. I have
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: a suggestion from you, number one, buy from the US.
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: We have plenty number two build up some delayed courage.
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: Go to the strait.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Just take it.
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself.
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: The USA won't be there to help you anymore, just
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: like you weren't there for US. Iran has been essentially decimated.
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: The hard part is done. Go get your own oil. So,
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: as the premiere oil analyst, how's that gonna work?
• 56:42
  Speaker 7: I mean, it's just a wild statement from a US president.
• 56:45
  Speaker 7: I think just on two points here. Actually, let's go.
• 56:48
  Speaker 7: It's actually this little a third point as well. So
• 56:51
  Speaker 7: hard part's done, you know, you do the rest. Obviously,
• 56:55
  Speaker 7: the rest is the part that's too hard for Trump
• 56:57
  Speaker 7: to do himself. So I would say at this stage
• 56:59
  Speaker 7: it's not entirely sincere, although that's not shocking in this environment.
• 57:03
  Speaker 7: I think the part that really hits like a hammer, though,
• 57:07
  Speaker 7: is the go get your own oil exclamation mark, which
• 57:10
  Speaker 7: is essentially like the epigraph on a book about the
• 57:13
  Speaker 7: end of the Carter doctrine, that the United States has
• 57:16
  Speaker 7: been the has been the policeman in this region of
• 57:20
  Speaker 7: the world for decades. It has been the guaranteur of
• 57:23
  Speaker 7: these oil supplies and for the regional security of the
• 57:26
  Speaker 7: golf kingdoms and golf states and golf you know, oil exporters.
• 57:31
  Speaker 7: It's a complete rewriting of how this situation in the
• 57:35
  Speaker 7: Middle East works.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: And I you know, when we're talking.
• 57:37
  Speaker 7: About the unilateral taco I think I kind of see
• 57:40
  Speaker 7: the two most likely scenarios here as kind of the
• 57:43
  Speaker 7: really really bad scenario where the global economy goes into
• 57:46
  Speaker 7: like a deep recession, we get two hundred dollars plus oil.
• 57:49
  Speaker 7: That is the scenario I think that we've been grinding
• 57:52
  Speaker 7: towards steadily and disconcertingly of boots on the ground trying
• 57:56
  Speaker 7: to take carg Island, et cetera, et cetera. That's where
• 57:59
  Speaker 7: you get prolonged closure to the strait. You get risk
• 58:02
  Speaker 7: of further, you know, attacks on regionally oil infrastructure, things
• 58:06
  Speaker 7: that can't just be undone, things that are permanent or
• 58:08
  Speaker 7: at least years long durable. I think that's a scenario,
• 58:12
  Speaker 7: but I see that is so dire that I see
• 58:14
  Speaker 7: it as very difficult to hold in my base case,
• 58:16
  Speaker 7: because I just don't think that any politician, at least
• 58:19
  Speaker 7: alone Donald Trump, has the wherewithal to go through with
• 58:22
  Speaker 7: kind of something so long and arduous like that. I
• 58:24
  Speaker 7: think more likely here is the other scenario, which is
• 58:26
  Speaker 7: my base case from the very beginning, which has been
• 58:29
  Speaker 7: what I call the unilateral Taco, which is people are like, well,
• 58:32
  Speaker 7: Trump can't just taco. This is not tariffs, this is
• 58:34
  Speaker 7: not trade policy. You know, there are multiple participants in
• 58:38
  Speaker 7: this war. He can't just decide by himself. I humbly disagree,
• 58:42
  Speaker 7: and I think that Trump would likely disagree with that
• 58:44
  Speaker 7: as well. I think, if we've seen anything about Trump,
• 58:46
  Speaker 7: he's not bound by precedent, he's not bound by allies,
• 58:49
  Speaker 7: not bound by anything, and I think he's very clearly
• 58:53
  Speaker 7: already bored of this war. I think by this stage
• 58:56
  Speaker 7: he planned to basically be rolling over onto Cuba. I
• 59:00
  Speaker 7: think that, you know, I never thought that Trump planned
• 59:02
  Speaker 7: to get this deep, and he never had a plan
• 59:05
  Speaker 7: for once he was this deep. So I think if
• 59:07
  Speaker 7: the if the consequences keep ramping, and I don't think
• 59:09
  Speaker 7: this is over yet. I think that we still need
• 59:11
  Speaker 7: higher oil prices and lower equity prices and more economic
• 59:14
  Speaker 7: pain to force that unilateral taco. But that's how I
• 59:17
  Speaker 7: see this eventually going. Is the one day we're just
• 59:19
  Speaker 7: going to get a post. It's like it's done, you know,
• 59:21
  Speaker 7: US Navy sailing home. That's how I pitched this ending.
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: Let's fit C zero up on the screen.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: We're now officially at national average over four dollars a
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: gallon for gas, so a significant and not great milestone
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: being reached here. Let's say that he does the full taco.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: Go get your own gas. We're out straight up hor moves.
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: There's a new reality. There's a new sheriff in town.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: We're gonna let a run charge their toll and you
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: know you can do deals with.
• 59:47
  Speaker 4: Them and shines as you on. We're out a here.
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: Okay, let's say that that is what happens. What is
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: the damage that's already been done and how will that
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: trickle throughout the global economy.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 7: Yeah, So the one thing I want to kind of
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 7: stress here is that, in no reasonable scenario coming out
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 7: of the Iraan War do I see the oil market
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 7: being in a healthier or more secure position than which
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 7: it entered the war in. So I think, you know,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 7: any scenario is going to have structurally higher prices. I
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 7: think in the scenario where you have, you know, a
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 7: boots on the ground drag out two hundred dollars plus,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 7: I think in this scenario of a unilateral taco Aroan
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 7: having some kind of sovereign control over the Strait, which
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 7: again is just an unthinkable thing to kind of consider
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 7: long term, but that's what we're looking like. We're at
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 7: least trending towards possibly in that scenario. I still think
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 7: the oil price is currently I'm looking at my screen,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 7: brents just about one hundred and seventeen.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: I think that's still too low. I think that, you know, even.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 7: Though this unilateral taco is bearish or a lower price
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 7: environment than the boots on the ground scenario, I think
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 7: both of them are still dire and like a deeply
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 7: untendable supply situation. I think in the scenario where iron
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 7: does continue to control the straight, then we're just going
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 7: to like, it's just setting a up very predictably for
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 7: the next crisis.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: I think this is like, this is a situation that
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: can't last.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 7: It is inherently politically untenable and unstable, and we're going
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 7: to get the next flare up. So we go from
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 7: a long drawn out, awful horror moves closure to maybe
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 7: like a perennial two week closure and horm moves, which
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 7: seems like an insane thing to bake into the system.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 7: But that's kind of again what it's looking like we
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 7: might be arriving at.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it really does. Let's go and put a nine
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: guys up on there on the screen. That's the bill
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: in that is being passed through Iran. They say that
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: they would impose a toll system in Rial's that they
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: would ban passage of US and israelly vessels through the Strait,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: assert Iranian sovereignty over the airway, strategic waterway, ban any
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: country that imposes unilateral sanctions against Iran. Oman slated to
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: help shape the legal frame.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: By the way, that Omani piece is actually pretty significant.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean, let's let's game this out. I
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: was thinking earlier, I go, how could you be the
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: Gulf countries where you have to get all you just
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: got bombed by these people, have to pay them some
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: sort of toll and maybe they won't even want money,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: and they're like bombs keep coming unless the bases go.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: But like that seems to be the reality. I mean,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: the UK, Japan, South Korea, all of these Asian countries,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: they would have to pay. I mean, I don't even
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: know how they could get real's by the way, I mean,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: is there a market, you know, to exchange, Like, talk
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: us through what that would look like.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 7: Yeah, So just so let's talk through the size of
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 7: the toll first, cause I think you know, what we've
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 7: seen discussed so far is a two million dollar passage,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 7: which sounds very expensive, but relative to like a VLCC
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 7: or a very large crude carrier tanker, the largest ones
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 7: they are typically used, they carry about two million barrels
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 7: of crude, So that's only about a dollar a barrel
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 7: on toll. That is expensive, but relative to the current, deeply,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 7: deeply problematic status quo, it is a clear kind of
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 7: beneficial change to the global supply situation. But to your point,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 7: the politics of this are deeply untenable, and it seems
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 7: unlikely that they're would allow a complete reopening of the strait.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: Again.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 7: Prior to the war, we were having about one hundred
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 7: plus one hundred to one hundred and twenty vessels crossing
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 7: the street every day. You know, maybe we get back
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 7: up to fifty percent of that. Then with some of
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 7: the offices that we have in the system, like the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 7: Saudi East West Pipeline and other and other sources, maybe
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 7: we get back to something that's you know, just a
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 7: deep deficit rather than a catastrophic supply deficit. But I
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 7: think that's the scenario, is that we just have some
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 7: kind of durable control for Iran in this in this region,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 7: and the Gulf country is kind of having just need
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 7: to you know, swallow the bitter pill because the alternative
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 7: is existential for them. This, I think is is existential
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 7: for them as well. But at least it is a
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 7: scenario where they continue exporting their oil and restarting their
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 7: economies relative to right now where virtually, I mean, by far,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 7: they're a large economic sector is completely sidelined.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: The other thing Trump says offers as a solution other
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: than go get your own oil and good luck militarily
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: in the Strait of Hormuz is, Hey, come buy from us.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: We've got plenty of oil. Can you talk about, you know,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: how our supply fits into the global oil markets and
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: the reality of what that looks like as well.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so, yeah, definitely.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 7: So let's say Europe is, because I think that's kind
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 7: of who he's aiming this tweet apt in terms of
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 7: like the UK reference, The UK and Europe more broadly
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 7: is a net import of what we call middle distillates,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 7: so diesel, jet fuel, et cetera.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Historically, Europe got that from Russia.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 7: Following twenty twenty two, in the invasion of Ukraine, they
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 7: ban the import of Russian oil and gas, and increasingly
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 7: they turn your European importer's turned to the Middle East
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 7: and the Gulf for those supplies. So this is obviously
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 7: particularly acute for them. You can actually, you know, the
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 7: United States is a net exporter of diesel and middle distillates.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 7: Largely those current cargoes go to Latin America. Mexico is
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 7: the largest single recipient. So if if Europe started to
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 7: overbid those one, they'd be paying a very pretty penny
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 7: for them, and you'd essentially be taking those flows away
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 7: from Latin American importers, which are going to be in
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 7: a different entire world of hurt. But I think also
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 7: what's further going to complicate this is if this crisis continues,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 7: it if prices get get higher and more volatile. I
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 7: think the one thing that a lot of people, a
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 7: lot of analysts have been watching for is any signs
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 7: that the Trump ministration is going to pull the trigger
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 7: on some kind of trade restrictions, which obviously I think
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 7: I mean the ultimate rug pull here would basically be
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 7: that Trump starts the Iran war, destabilizes a straight leaves
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 7: and says, oh, by the way, your problem, go get
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 7: your own oil or buy from us.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: They're like, okay, we'll buy from you.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 7: And they's like, actually, we're going to ban the export
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 7: of diesel in the first place, so go find it
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 7: somewhere else. Like this is it's a recurring cycle of
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 7: kind of bad faith negotiations and diplomacy leading to just
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 7: a situation that is, you know, sure, the United States,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 7: relative to a lot of the rest of the world,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 7: is going to be in a relatively better spot because
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 7: large domestic production. I'm up in Toronto, you know you
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 7: have secure supplies of Canadian crude into the US Midwest
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 7: in particular, that can't get enticed away to other regions.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 7: So the United States is in a good spot, but
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 7: the DNA States exists in a global economy and the
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 7: US can. You know, no matter how strong the US
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 7: economy is, it's going to feel those buffet that buffetting
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 7: from a global economy if it's under that retrenchment of
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 7: this recessionary pressure.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: Something I've really learned from you, Rory, is about why
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: an export ban would be a bad idea. You've talked
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: actually about refinery capacity, about the various different types of
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: refineries and what they're built for some of US refeorgn oil,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: some other foreign refineries built for US oil, about how
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: much that would distort the global market. So when people
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 3: say Trump, when Trump says you can come buy from US,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: I think you know what you're trying to hammer home
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: is yeah, they'll come buy from US, but we have
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: to buy ours too, and that's really going to be expensive.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: So it could still be a six dollars a gallon
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: type scenario depending on where the crude oil market and
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: all of that goes. Not to mention, I mean, I
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: know you're not an LNG expert either, but like that
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: is also kind of critical last time I checked for Europe.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: Could you just talk through that about why you're kind
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: of screwed either way. If you do an export ban,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: you really would hurt the US market, you know, kind
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: of forever. And if you don't, we're also still going
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: to have.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: To pay sky high prices.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 7: Yeah, just to your point, even aside from the crude
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 7: quality and the kind of you know, refinery slate stuff,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 7: even just on the product side, if you know, the
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 7: US Golf Coast the net exporter of diesel and jet
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 7: fuel and other products like that, whereas the East and
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 7: West Coast or net importers of gasoline.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: The relaxation and kind.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 7: Of suspension or waving of the Jones Act could allow
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 7: some more of those Gulf coast barrels to the coasts
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 7: in a way that could help an autarchic kind of
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 7: US petroleum trade work without completely breaking But fundamentally you
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 7: need these export markets in order to clear additional like
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 7: let's say, access diesel from the from the US Golf Coast.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 7: If you ban the export of that, it initially manifest
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 7: is what the White Hesland see is a great thing,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 7: which is you'd have excess supplies, you'd have inventories that
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 7: build up, you'd have depressed diesel prices domestically briefly, which
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 7: is going to sound like a great for a couple
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 7: of weeks until that surplus of diesel and that ends
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 7: up forcing those Golf Coast refineries to reduce their run.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: Rates because they can't put their diesel anywhere.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 7: And that means that you'd end up in a situation
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 7: where you could actually end up running out or having
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 7: a scarcity of gasoline in the US Golf Coast, which
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 7: would be an insane thing. One thing I keep saying
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 7: is that for advanced economies, this will largely manifest as
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 7: a debilitating price shock because we will be able to
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 7: we have very low price sensitively these fuels. I like
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 7: to say, like I'm driving my kids to school regardless
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 7: of how high the pump price is. But much of
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 7: the world does not have that scenario, and they're going
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 7: to feel the weight of this through supply losses, but
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 7: as soon as actual scarcity and the lack of supply.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 7: But the way you can short circuit that ability for
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 7: us to pay for these fuels is by beginning to
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 7: muck with trade, and I think that is the temptation here,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 7: and again that's my worry of if this keeps going,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 7: where we could be headed.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: Let's put C five up on the screen. There was
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: an announcement from Russia they're planning to ban gasoline exports
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: starting on April first. You know, Russia obviously major oil producer,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: a significant global supplier. What is the significance of this.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 7: Yeah, so I think you're seeing a lot of countries
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 7: around the world. Russia's one example. China is another example,
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 7: I think even more critically, that has banned the export
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 7: of refined fuels in twenty twenty two. They are a
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 7: very important swing producer into that diesel starved market. With
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 7: Russia specifically, Russia isn't oft isn't. Typically it's a very
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 7: very minor net export of gasoline, and ever since Ukraine's
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 7: attacks on domestic refining infrastructure, it's increasingly actually been pushed
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 7: into a scenario of net imports. So the reason that
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 7: they're banning exports is to kind of try and hold.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Back as much of that gas as possible.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 7: The bigger concern was it would be if you started
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 7: seeing Russia banning the export of diesel because Unlike gasling,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 7: where they're a minor export player, Diesel they're a major
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 7: export player, more like a million barrels a day versus
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 7: let's say, gasing a one hundred thousand barrels a day.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 7: And in that scenario again, diesel in the middle distilts
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 7: the tightest area of the market that would you know,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 7: really really hurt in terms of those those refining margins
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 7: and cracksmans and the prices you and I see at
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 7: the pump.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: But one thing on Moscow, I just.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 7: I keep repeating this that Moscow is the single largest
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 7: beneficiary of the Iran war, both in terms of an
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 7: overall higher price environment, explicit removal of sanctions by the
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 7: US Treasury against Russian and shockingly in this context even
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 7: Iranian crude.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: And I think all of.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 7: The pressure that the White House had very successfully imposed
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 7: on the Russian oil industry, you know over the past
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 7: you know, eight nine months, that was undone in a month,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 7: and I think we're back to square one. And I
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 7: think the one rub to this is that the one
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 7: person who knows this has been a boon and likely
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 7: a windfall for Putin is Zelenski.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: And what we've seen.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 7: Over the past coal of weeks is Ukrainian forces dramatically
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 7: ramping up attacks against Russian export infrastructure. Last week Reuters
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 7: had it at forty percent of Russian oil export infrastry
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 7: sure was offline. Was the largest disruption to Russian supply
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 7: in modern history, on top of the largest supply shock
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 7: in the n oil market's entire history happening in the
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 7: golf just entirely separately.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: So there's this pro cyclical element.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 7: Now that the higher oil prices go, the more pressure
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 7: Ukraine is going to put on Russian exports, and that's
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 7: going to put prices higher and again rant pressure.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 3: For even more geopolitical spiral. My last question for you,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 3: man is let's put C three. I love this map
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: that you put out there. I believe it was made
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: by JP Morgan, which shows the actual like you said,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 3: where the air pocket, which is kind of the way
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: that you could think about the supply loss is moving
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: through the world. So East Africa was already hit East
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: age of this week. We're literally about to do an
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: entire block about all of the global chaos and South
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 3: Korean president being like I can't sleep at night. Europe
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: next week and you say North America two more weeks now.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: The Secretary Hegseth, took the podium this morning basically refused
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: to give some sort of a timeline.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: The war is not going to end today, that's for sure.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: It's going to end sometime in the future, saying two
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: weeks coming up on that.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: What does that look like?
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: We're already at four dollars a gallon here in the
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: US nationally, let's say two more weeks when that pocket
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: hits us, how does that manifestor we're gonna have supply shortages?
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: Are we going to be Australia with you know, petrol
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: stations that are closed.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: What's that look like for US?
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 7: So I think the United States, like I was saying earlier,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 7: is in a beneficial and kind of privileged position that
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 7: it likely won't immediately run into any major physical shortages.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 7: But to your point of like US average gas prices
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 7: already back over four bucks a gallon, the price pressure
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 7: is going to keep coming. So like that chart shows
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 7: that that air pocket And just to get to give
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 7: the logic of this, you know, before the war, you
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 7: had tankers leaving the Gulf fully laiden with crude. They
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 7: take up words of a month or a month and
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 7: a half to get where they're going.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: You're not going to feel the.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 7: Loss of those supplies and the closure of the strait
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 7: until that final tanker reaches your shores, behind which there's
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 7: nothing but air.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: That's the air pocket.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 7: That air pocket is landing in Asia likely this week,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 7: Europe next week, in North America two weeks after. But
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 7: if you look at that chart, North America also doesn't
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 7: get that much oil from the golf anymore.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: It used to get a lot more.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 7: Shell revolution in the and growth in Canadian production has
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 7: largely displaced those barrels.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: But we got we end.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 7: Up back in the situation that Nancy's is still an
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 7: importer of or is still an importer of various fuels
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 7: on the coasts and of crude oil in the Golf
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 7: because of quality issues. Those barrels that are imported are
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 7: going to have furious demand and competition for them already,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 7: and as as Asia starts drawing down stalks because that
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 7: air pocket has arrived, and then Europe next week, that's
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 7: when you're gonna see.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: Mounting and ever more pressure.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 7: And one thing we keep talking about is this disconnect
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 7: between paper or financial futures and crude and the physical
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 7: market underlying these industries that has remained fairly wide. When
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 7: that air pocket lands, it's gonna kind of wedge those
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 7: things together. We're gonna see way more of that physical
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 7: pressure manifest in the prices that we see on our screen.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: And Rory, if you could best, you can sort of
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: bottled line it for consumers who are listening, like, what
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: should there our expectations be over the coming weeks at
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: what they're going to pay at the.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 7: Pump, It's going to be a very very expensive driving season,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 7: like you know, easily the most expensive driving season since
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 7: twenty twenty two. And if this continues through April and further,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 7: we will likely we will very very likely see all
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 7: time high pump prices and surely all time high diesel
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 7: prices in the United States.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: Great, all right, well, yeah ahead, and sorry good weather,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 3: but we trust you. And you are not a sensational person.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: That's one of the reasons I really enjoy speaking with you.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: Everybody.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 4: He is a sensational person.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: But yeah, sorry, list.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 3: He's not what's the term permeable, You're not a permeable
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: in the oil space.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: Everybody, go follow Rory and subscribe to yourself.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: Sack.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: Thanks man, thank you for joining us, thanks for having
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: me