Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 123 - 9/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 123 - 9/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 123 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone happy
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Thirsty Thursday. The wait is over.
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We have football back in our lives.
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Isn't it funny? We go like six months without
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football, just waiting and waiting and feels like forever.
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And then when you go from just Monday to Thursday, it feels
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like forever too. So either way, guys, we got some
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football to talk about today. Obviously, we have New England
0:53
and The Jets, Pat's Jets here tonight.
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I got a play for you in terms of the side.
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I have a play for you in terms of a player prop.
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Also, college football hinted at this game a little bit yesterday
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with South Alabama, Appalachian State.
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I got to play on that as well. I'm not going to forget about
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baseball. I got 1 baseball bet that caught
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my eye. Not only a sharp line move, but
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I want to fade a team that just clinched a playoff spot last
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night. I think maybe they're still
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hungover or maybe they're still drunk.
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Either way, I want to bet against them.
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And then WNBAI know it's football season, but we got
1:23
back, dipped our toe back in the WNBA couple nights ago, had a
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winner, found another one here for tonight that we can sweat
1:29
together if you are interested. And then also, I'm going to give
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you my updated breakdown, my card for this weekend games that
1:36
I already have in pocket. And pocket is a phrase that
1:38
really I never heard of until Mitch and Polly and Vson started
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talking about but about it. But in pocket means you've
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already bet the game. You're holding a ticket, you
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know, in your pocket or your wallet as whatever the case may
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be, but then also a game that I am just adding.
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I just added it today. I've been looking at it, staring
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at it and it looks like it's going to fall even further.
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So I'm going to grab this dog and the points right now for the
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NFL. So overall, 5 pack today, two
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NFL bats, 1 college football bet, one MLB bet and one WNBA
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bet. Now, looking back toward
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yesterday, how about a nice little one and O?
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There was a big slate of baseball, so we decided to pick
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our spot. Got down on the D backs.
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D backs came through. So you're 1 and O + 0.6 units.
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I will take it. But not just the 0.6 units,
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probably a little bit more than that.
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For those of you who are like me, celebrating the over 83 1/2
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wins, that's right. This is a test case of doing
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your homework much earlier in the year before the season
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starts and then having to wait. Patience is a virtue, but
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getting rewarded when they cash for you.
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So D backs over 83 1/2 wins was my favorite win total, the MLB,
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basically of any MLB team. And it took until what,
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September 18th to cash that one? So we will take it.
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Secondly, I'm feeling great because I had a really fun night
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last night. I told you guys I went to Post
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Malone at Fenway Park. Obviously, I've been to Fenway
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Park and seen tons of Red Sox games.
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My first game was with my dad when I was, I don't know, six
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years old. I I still remember seeing the
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Green Monster for the first time and falling in love with
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baseball and the Red Sox. But I'd never attended a
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concert. So we were in the pit.
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We were basically around third base, shortstop kind of left
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field. It was a fantastic show.
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I know Post Malone from his rap days, but he has a new album.
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It's a country album and it is fantastic.
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And I'm not a country fan. He made me like country.
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So it was a fantastic concert, had a ton of fun.
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I'm a little banged up today, but that's all right.
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Nothing 3 Advil and some Gatorade won't won't fix, if you
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know what I'm saying. So anyway, let's dive it into
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our sweats here guys, because we got a lot going on on a big
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Thirsty Thursday and I want to start off with biggest game of
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the night. Of course, we have the Patriots
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and The Jets, 2 of the AFC bitter rivals for going on many
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a year at this point. But anyway, this game opens.
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This is really interesting. Now what do we see across the
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market here? Let's set the stage.
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Patriots are one and one. I always like to give a little
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bit of background going into a game.
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Pats are one and one. Remember they shocked the
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Bengals in the opener. They lost to the Seahawks 23 to
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20. Luckily for us who got the hook?
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You covered that game. Jets one and one took down the
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Titans 2417 as around a 3 1/2 or 4 point favorite.
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Don't remind me because I had Titans in the points in that
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one. Anyway, what do we see across
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the market here? Well, this game opened with The
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Jets as a 7 point, mostly 7, but some 6 1/2's out there.
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Seven 6 1/2 point favorite. Now the immediate move that
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we've seen has been toward New England.
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New England went from plus 7 + 6 1/2 down to +6.
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Now I'm going to tell you in a second here, hint, hint.
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I'm going to take the points of the Patriots, but shop around.
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Try to get the hook. Either shop around and find that
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hook. I see at least two books right
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now still offering Pat's plus 6 1/2 at -120.
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If you are at a book that's like six juiced up toward The Jets,
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you could flip it. Like if it's jets -6 -. 115, you
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could take the Patriots +6 at -105 take them up to around
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-120. I think the hook could be
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critical here. So that's why I would do
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everything in your power to shop or buy it up.
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And again, I'm not a big fan of buying points.
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It really doesn't make as much of a difference as you think
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long term. But around key numbers and
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trying to get sharp triggering numbers, I think it is
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meaningful. So you don't want to buy up the
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points in every game. I'm like the Doseki Sky.
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I don't usually buy points, but when I do, it's around a key
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number trying to get a trying to get a triggering number from the
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wise guys. But anyway, the Lions always
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gone toward New England plus 7 + 6 and half down to +6.
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Now, I was telling you guys that I was a little apprehensive
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about this game because the Patriots were, quote UN quote, a
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trendy dog. Like if you're looking
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throughout the week, you know, New England was getting early
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Monday, Tuesday, like 60% of bets, which again, it's not 70,
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it's not 80. But still, you know, public
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tends to bet favorites. So when I saw that line move,
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when I said, hey, Patriots got the line move, that means
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they're taking in smart money. But also I don't want to be on
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the public side. So I said, let's wait it out.
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And what I was hoping happened ended up happening.
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And what that what that was is basically the betting
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percentages evening out. So throughout the week, Pat's
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are getting around 60% of bets. The updated split right now is
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Patriots getting 52% of spread bets.
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So you got to remember public tends to bet day of the game.
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Looks like a lot of Jets money's been flowing in short week.
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Aaron Rodgers, don't believe in the Patriots again.
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You're seeing a lot of continued or expanded jet support, even
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though it's not like The Jets are evening out in terms of
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percentage bet. And now they're back up to
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seven. No, it's pretty much stayed at
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six. So I like the fact that New
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England's down to 52%. Who knows, they might close at
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49 percent, 48%. I know we're splitting hairs
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here, but technically they would be on the contrarian side.
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So my fear of Patriots being too trendy, I don't really fear that
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much anymore. It's basically a 5050 game.
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So in a 5050 game, we talked about it a lot, you know,
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reading line movement, comparing line movement to percentages and
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bets with what does it tell you? It tells me that, you know, in a
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vacuum, 5050 line shouldn't move at all.
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Theoretically, there's no reason for the oddsmakers to adjust the
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number. The fact that we've moved toward
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the Patriots, whether a full point, a point 1/2 point, even
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though it's split 5050, tells me that this is pretty smart money
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on New England. So I'm going to go Patriots
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here, guys. A lot of betting systems on the
7:08
Patriots. If you look at dogs overall this
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year, after not a great week one, they crushed it in week
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two. Dogs are now 17 and 14 against
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the spread 55% with a 5% ROI this year.
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This is incredible. But dogs getting six or more,
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they're perfect. Eight.
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No. Excuse me against the spread
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this so far this season. Rd. dogs easy way to go
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contrarian public loves home teams and favorites.
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Rd. dogs are 14 and 9 against the spread. 61 percent, 17% ROI
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this year they're 517 and 434 ATS 54% with a 5% ROI since
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2018. Divisional dogs.
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Another reason why I like New England here is it's a
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divisional game. Divisional dogs bark louder than
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non division dogs because the built in familiar familiarity
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leveling the playing field benefiting the team getting
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points. Divisional dogs are two O 8 and
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178 ATS 54 percent 4% ROI since 2020.
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Primetime dogs. You know we love our primetime
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dogs. 123 and 95 against the spread 56 percent 8% ROI since
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2020. Patriots are also a correlative
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betting dog in a low total game Total in this one is 38 1/2, a
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very low low number here. So with a low number like that
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really in the NFL, anything around 40 is low.
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Anything around 50 is high, but few amount of expected points
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scored harder for that favorite to cover the number, especially
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when they're, you know, laying a touchdown here now with the
8:29
extra point the touchdown though, But anyway, I mentioned
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this in my sharp report for visen.com.
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You can always find it. I'll tweet it out at Josh under
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Score Insights each day, but we've identified the line going
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to the Patriots. All these great system matches.
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They're not as they're not as public anymore.
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Here's the thing. Got to get the hook.
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I mentioned this a second ago. Got to get the 6 1/2.
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Shop around. I'll give you an example.
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FanDuel right now is hanging plus 6 1/2 at -120 if you want
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to buy it up, just try to do everything you can in your power
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to get the 6 1/2. Perfect example with the Eagles
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game against the Falcons. You know we got 5 1/2, they had
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a shot there. If Eagles kicked a field goal to
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lose by 6, of course they came back and covered, but you would
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have lost your 5 1/2 instead of pusher 6.
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So with the hook here, the 6 1/2 Pats lose by 6.
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We want to win instead of just push.
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Now in terms of the under, I do lean under it open 40 1/2, it's
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down to 38 1/2, but the under is getting around 60% of bets in
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dollars. It actually fell all the way
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down to 37 1/2, then came back up.
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Now unders are 55% to start the year.
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Outdoor divisional unders are 56% since 2021.
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When the total falls at least to point off the opener.
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The under is 57% since 2021. Primetime unders are four and
9:48
three this year, and they're 60% since 2019.
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John Hussey, the lead ref, is a really good under F historically
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56%. So I lean under.
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My only concern with the under is it's a little more public.
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It's 60% of bets on the under. Like the public thinks this is
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going to be a low scoring game, which worries me.
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And if we get to our rhythm predictions here, rhythm is
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predicting a total of 41.8. So gun to my gun to the head,
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like I'll go under just because you know, the total has fallen.
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It is a prime time under. We got all these system matches.
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But with rhythm predicting this line to go over and the under
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being a little bit public, that's making me lay off the
10:25
total. So instead I'm just going
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Patriots guys plus 6 1/2. And I'll mention this to another
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reason why I like the Patriots. Rhythm is predicting a spread of
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plus 3.1 for New England and my Josh rhythm model is predicting
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plus 3.5 S Again, rhythm is predicting a closer game than
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what the odds makers are predicting, which provides value
10:46
to take the points here. So I'm going Patriots guys, shop
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around, do anything you can scratch claw, find that hook +6
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and half New England. Now I do have a prop bet for
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you. This is a ain't broke, don't fix
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it prop. One running back who has cashed
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for me two weeks in a row is Romandre Stevenson over his
11:03
rushing total, and I'm going to go right back to the well with
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Romandre Stevenson over 64 1/2 rushing yards.
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Now, Stevenson have 120 yards in Week 1.
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He had 81 yards last week. He's gone over this number in
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five of his last six games. Combined that with the fact that
11:20
The Jets are getting shredded in terms of rush defense, they gave
11:24
up 180 to the 49ers. They give up 1:30 to the Titans,
11:28
their 24th in the NFL and rushing yards allowed with
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averaging 155. So not only is Stevenson playing
11:34
well, but it looks to be at least on paper, a good matchup
11:37
against The Jets defense. And then I look at our rhythm
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prediction here for Romandre Stevenson.
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Let me just dial it up for you and we have let me see here,
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pull it up on my iPhone. We have Romandre Stevenson
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expected 73.6 rushing yards. So we got an edge.
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Patriots are running team. I know a lot of people who
12:00
really like his like over. I think it's 15 and half
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attempts, but I'm just see if we can rack up some yardage here.
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I'm going Stevenson over 64 1/2 and I'm going Patriots plus the
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hook. Find that hook plus 6 1/2.
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Now it's not just Patriots Jets. We got a college game to look at
12:16
here tonight guys. Let's look at, I think it's a
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7:30 PM, it's on ESPN heavily bet primetime and we have some
12:24
Sunbelt funbelt opportunities here.
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So a big match up. I say big, you know, it's any
12:30
game is big, I guess if you bet on it.
12:32
But a match up here in the Sunbelt, South Alabama and App
12:34
State. Now I hinted at this yesterday
12:37
and I'm sticking with my lien and it became a transition from
12:40
a lien into an official bet for me.
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I'm going South Alabama plus 7 1/2.
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Now, little background here. South Alabama comes in one and
12:47
two. App State comes in two and one.
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South Alabama opened O and two and poor Northwestern State.
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They beat them last week 87 to 10.
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There should be a mercy rule there.
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App State won their opener against ETSU.
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They lost to Clemson, got rolled and they came back and beat ECU
13:04
by two last week. But what do we see across the
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market here? Well, it looks like some really
13:09
sharp liability, some some line freeze, reverse line movement on
13:12
South Alabama. So this game opened Appalachian
13:15
State around a 7 1/2 point favorite throughout the week.
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Early in the week, it got up to as high as -8 but now it's come
13:22
back down to 7 1/2. And if you look at the juice,
13:25
all these seven and a halfs are juiced up towards South Alabama.
13:28
Like it may even get down to seven.
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So if you'll get all these +7 and a halfs, they're -115 to
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South Alabama. Thinking that again, it may fall
13:36
even further. I like to buy back.
13:38
I like the movement, but I love the fact that no one wants to
13:40
play South Alabama tonight. Everyone's on App State.
13:43
If you remember years and years ago, I'm this is how old I'm
13:46
getting. I'm 37.
13:47
But do you remember what App state?
13:49
I think they upset Michigan and I feel like ever since that
13:52
game, like App states, kind of like a trendy team like oh, App
13:55
State. Oh, like the public remembers
13:57
them and wants to play them. So currently you're getting App
14:00
state with 70% of spread bets, 7 out of 10 bets, all the drunk
14:05
guys at the bar on App state. Yet this line is coming back
14:08
towards South Alabama. So South Alabama only getting
14:11
30% of bets, put 45% of dollars a nice low bets, higher dollars
14:15
bet split. They're also a huge contrarian
14:18
primetime dog. So betting against the public in
14:20
a heavily bet primetime game. South Alabama has a 2 day rest
14:24
advantage. They last played on Thursday
14:26
versus you look at App State played on Saturday.
14:30
So nice little rest. First tired spot.
14:33
Also have a system match in the Sunbelt.
14:35
You have seen Sunbelt conference games, the dog do pretty well
14:39
since 2020. Sunbelt Conference dogs are 106
14:42
and 87 against the spread 55%. Also, if you look at a system
14:49
match that I love as well, it's a dog who can score.
14:51
So if you're on a dog, you either need a really good
14:53
defense to keep the, you know, the the other team in terms of
14:56
low scoring cover the number, or you got to put up points
14:59
yourself and cover that number or backdoor cover.
15:02
Well, maybe it's skewed because they put up 87 against Little
15:04
Old Northwestern State, but they've scored 145 points this
15:08
year. That's the most in the Sunbelt.
15:09
App States only scored 79 points.
15:12
So maybe this is an App State win by 7 where we just squeak
15:15
out with a with a hook with a + 7 1/2.
15:18
Who knows, maybe it's an upset. Maybe it's a 3 point game, six
15:21
point game, but I'm going to take the points here.
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Super contrarian, sharp buyback. And a little cherry on top,
15:26
Rhythm is predicting A6 point spread.
15:29
Rhythm has South Alabama +6, so if we're getting 7 1/2 some
15:33
value there, let's go South Alabama.
15:36
Did anyone tell me the South Alabama mascot?
15:39
It's the Jaguar. So let's go Jags maybe.
15:42
So Major League Baseball, this is one of those ain't broke,
15:45
don't fix it place. I'm looking at once again, the
15:48
Arizona snakes. Now our win total has been
15:50
cashed over 83 1/2, but now looking to just win a game here
15:54
today on Arizona. I like Arizona at Milwaukee.
15:57
Now, this one is interesting for a couple of reasons.
16:00
One, let's just start with the market.
16:02
This line's moving toward Arizona.
16:03
Arizona open this game at Milwaukee, basically a pick em.
16:07
It was like -1 O 5 both sides. Or it was actually some shops
16:11
opened with Milwaukee as a little bit of a favorite like
16:13
-115 either way, we've now flipped to Arizona -115 I'm
16:18
looking, I'm looking at one shop even -120 so all movement has
16:22
been toward the D backs. You'll get the bet split.
16:25
Arizona's only getting 56% of bets, but 76% of dollars.
16:30
So nice low bets, higher dollars bet, split pitching matchup.
16:33
Brandon Fodd is going for the Snakes.
16:36
He's nine and nine, 4.81 ERA. Tobias Myers gets the ball from
16:41
Milwaukee's eight and five, 3 point O 7 ERA.
16:44
But also I got a lot of system matches on Arizona.
16:47
If you look at short Rd. favorites -130 or less, 56
16:51
percent, 4% ROI this year. Rd. favorites getting steam
16:55
$0.10 or more, 63 percent, 6% ROI.
16:58
Non division Rd. favorite off a win, 58%, 2% ROI.
17:02
Also we have the Snakes as one of the best chalk teams in
17:06
baseball mentioned yesterday, but Arizona is now 51 and 29 as
17:10
a favorite, which they are favorite here tonight.
17:13
I'm going to bank on Arizona's offense hopefully showing up.
17:15
They're hitting 264 on the year, 197 homers, 835 runs scored
17:21
versus Milwaukee hitting two 49170 homers, 735 runs scored
17:26
and last 10. Milwaukee is only hitting 2/28
17:30
versus Arizona's hitting 310. So that's the data play.
17:34
But here's the motivational and kind of the, I don't know,
17:37
intangible play. Milwaukee just clinched a
17:40
playoff spot last night. I got home from the Post Malone
17:43
concert and I looked at Twitter. I was looking at some scores.
17:46
Go on Twitter and I see Milwaukee celebrating, you know,
17:49
with all the the champagne, the beers, partying in the
17:52
clubhouse. When you clinch and you party
17:55
and you get drunk. I'm 37, obviously these players
17:59
are much younger than me, but I can tell you, you know, it's
18:02
tough to rebound the next day. So not only do you have the fade
18:06
Milwaukee, you know, drunk guys who partied hard last night
18:10
because they won the Central, but also a let down spot.
18:13
You clinch the the playoff spot. You know what?
18:15
What really does it mean now? Now moving forward, you get the
18:20
motivation for the D backs, though they haven't clinched
18:22
anything. They currently own the third
18:24
wild card spot and they lead Atlanta only by two games.
18:27
And I'm looking right now, Atlanta's crushing Cincinnati,
18:29
so that could be 1 1/2 games. So Milwaukee, they won, they won
18:34
their division. They're going to the postseason.
18:36
I think it's a let down spot to fade Milwaukee and play Arizona
18:40
with the sharp line move, who again still has something to
18:42
play for and secure a playoff spot.
18:44
So I'm on Arizona. Can they do it again two days in
18:47
a row for us? I'm hoping so let's go Snakes.
18:50
I got Arizona at -115 Now over to the WNBA.
18:55
This is the part of the pod where I know some people just
18:58
stop listening, but hey, it's something to bet on.
19:00
I think there's some value here. So if you want to play with me,
19:02
you are more than welcome. It's also late night sweat.
19:05
10:00 I'm looking at the Seattle Storm visiting the Phoenix
19:08
Mercury now coming into it, both these teams have clinched the
19:12
playoff spot. Seating is still up in the air,
19:15
but the Mercury are 19 and 20. They're 10 and 9 at home.
19:18
Seattle is 24 and 1510 and 9 on the road.
19:21
Now, I've seen this line move a little bit toward the Mercury.
19:24
You open this game around like -3 -, 2 1/2 for Storm.
19:28
It's now down to 1 1/2 or even one that, you know, kind of has
19:33
plays a role in my handicap of this game.
19:34
So I'm going to go over here. I'm going to go over 163 1/2 now
19:41
#1 is that this total has risen. It opened 161.
19:43
It's up to 163 1/2. Tells me smart money hit the
19:46
over. You also got to ask yourself,
19:47
who's betting Storm Mercury on a big Thursday Night Football
19:50
night? Not the public.
19:51
So it tells me it's almost pure smart money hitting this over.
19:55
The bet split from DraftKings, only 54% of bets, but 96% of
19:59
money is on the over. Great low bets, higher dollars
20:02
bet split. I mentioned that move toward the
20:04
Mercury, but biggest factor there is they're a very short
20:07
home dog. They're getting 1 1/2 at home.
20:09
So maybe back and forth, maybe competitive, maybe overtime
20:12
bodes well for an over. Both teams are decent
20:15
offensively, Stormer averaging 83.1 points per game, Mercury is
20:19
averaging 81.7. Mercury also give up the 4th
20:22
most points, 84.6. Stormer #3 in terms of pace.
20:27
So up and down the court score a lot.
20:29
If you look at the last 10, Stormer averaging 82 a game,
20:32
giving up 81. Mercury averaging 75, giving up
20:35
84. And then here's a little cherry
20:38
on top. My Rhythm model, my AI model
20:40
here from Rhythm is predicting a final total of 172, and my Josh
20:46
model is predicting a final total of 171.8.
20:50
So again, if we get close to those Rhythm and Rhythm models,
20:54
whether it's the AI model or the model you create by yourself,
20:57
you're both around 170. We're getting over 163 1/2.
21:01
So some value there hopefully. And also the community model
21:04
polling everyone who has a Rhythm account and has a system
21:07
play on this game. 96.6% are on the over.
21:11
So add it all up here, guys. You know, I wouldn't force the
21:13
WNBA play tonight because I agree it's, you know, not my
21:16
favorite sport to bet on either. But when you have some data
21:20
screaming to you, come play this, this system match, I'm
21:22
going to give it a shot. So you're welcome to sweat with
21:24
me or not up to you, but I'm going to go with storm Mercury
21:28
over 163 1/2. Now.
21:32
Just want to finish up the pod letting you know what I have in
21:35
pocket for this weekend and a addition that I have for my NFL
21:39
card. So in the NFLI.
21:41
Still only have wife three now, but I had two coming into today.
21:46
Official bets for me. One was Arizona plus three.
21:49
I'm still liking that some books are getting down to 2 1/2, so
21:52
that's a good sign. Also Atlanta plus 3 1/2 at home
21:56
against the Kansas City Chiefs. That looks like it make it down
21:59
to three, so I'm digging that one as well.
22:01
I am monitoring Minnesota. I was holding out for a three.
22:06
I don't know if I'm going to get it.
22:07
Looks like 2 1/2 might be the best number, so I'll probably
22:10
play Minnesota, but I'm still going to wait, see if I can get
22:13
a better price. I'm still leaning New Orleans.
22:15
They went from -1 up to -2 1/2 against Philly.
22:18
They have some good system matches.
22:19
Philly's on a short week, no A.J.
22:21
Brown, so I'm still leaning New Orleans.
22:23
Tennessee I'm still leaning on as gross as it is -1 1/2 up to
22:27
-2 1/2. Might even go to three, even
22:28
though everyone's been in Green Bay.
22:30
You saw Jordan Love practice yesterday.
22:32
At one point a line got back down to two.
22:34
Now it's creeping back up to three.
22:35
Tells me maybe that's kind of a, you know, a good sign if you're
22:38
a Packers fan, but probably not going to play this weekend.
22:42
So I'm still looking at Tennessee on the money line.
22:44
But then my addition today is I'm going to hold my nose and go
22:49
with the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins plus 4 1/2.
22:53
Now, this one, you might think at first glance is what are you
22:56
going to do? Take Miami with no Tua?
22:57
You're going to bet on Skyler Thompson?
22:59
What's wrong with you? Here's the thing, though.
23:02
Seattle open this game -6 1/2. Everyone's betting Seattle,
23:06
they're getting nearly 70% of bets, but this line is down to
23:09
four and a half and you have a lot of shops juiced up like it
23:12
make it down to four. So for whatever reason, a lot of
23:15
sharps seem to like Miami here they're only getting around 30%
23:19
of bets, but 50% of money. They got a lot of betting
23:22
systems dogs, Rd. Dogs.
23:24
You also have a dog low total total in this one is just 41
23:28
1/2. And then also a rest advantage.
23:32
Big one, actually, Miami played on Thursday.
23:34
Remember, Tua got hurt, lost to the Bills, but they last played
23:38
Thursday and Seattle played on the East Coast on Sunday.
23:42
So that's kind of a tough spot. Three day rest advantage in
23:45
favor of Miami against Seattle. You're kind of buying low on
23:49
Miami, just without Tua. And then I looked at my Rhythm
23:51
system matches. Rhythm has a predicted spread of
23:55
1.3 and my Josh model is 1.5. So again, it looks gross.
24:00
It feels gross, but sometimes those are the best plays in the
24:03
NFL, as my old friend Michael Lombardi used to call him.
24:06
Hazmat plays. So gross.
24:08
They're radioactive. But I am going to add Miami plus
24:11
4 1/2 to my card here. In terms of college football.
24:17
I just wanted to mention a couple ones.
24:19
I did get Oklahoma plus 7 1/2. They're only getting 13% of bets
24:23
#1 contrarian play. Some books are down to seven.
24:26
You can find the hook. It's a top contrarian spot.
24:29
I was able to get Michigan at +6.
24:32
If you can't get a six and you're at 5 1/2, you could buy
24:34
it up to six. Remember, everyone's been in USC
24:36
line went to Michigan. I'm annoyed by this one.
24:39
I'm like proud, but annoyed. Arizona State.
24:42
I was getting greedy trying to see if I can get Arizona State
24:45
back at 3 1/2. Well, guess what, they're down
24:47
to 2 1/2. So they look pretty sharp
24:49
against Texas Tech. But now you missed the key
24:51
number, so I'm going to wait on that one.
24:53
Still leaning hard. Arizona State, BYU, try to get
24:56
A7 if you can, you can buy it up, you can wait.
24:59
But everyone's been in Kansas State.
25:00
This line's going to BYU. And another one that I'm proud
25:03
of but kind of annoyed by is Arkansas, Arkansas, Auburn.
25:07
Arkansas has got a sharp bets, but I think 60% bets, almost 80%
25:10
money. They went from plus 4 1/2 down
25:13
to plus three. Guess what?
25:14
Today they're down to 2 1/2. So again, we're reading the
25:17
market, right. But part of the betting isn't
25:20
just reading the market and identifying a game.
25:22
It's it's jumping and betting it actually actually betting it.
25:24
I had a good number before it moves.
25:26
So I'll put Arkansas and Arizona State in terms of the monitor,
25:31
but let's wait and see if we can get back to a key number of
25:33
three. So that about does it for
25:36
episode 123 of the all systems Go sports betting podcast
25:39
powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
25:41
where I ask a favor of you. Could you please help me to grow
25:45
this podcast by doing one simple thing?
25:48
Please give this podcast a five star review.
25:50
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, the option there to
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rate the pod, boom, click five stars.
25:56
It would mean a lot to me. It would help us to grow the
25:58
pod, get more five star reviews. If you want to leave a nice
26:01
comment, that would be great as well.
26:03
If you want to click, follow that.
26:04
We get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
26:06
Even better if you want to recommend it to a friend.
26:09
I would love that as well. But a five star review would go
26:11
a long way to helping us to continue to build momentum for
26:15
the pod. So please do that if you
26:17
wouldn't mind. Secondly, if you enjoy the pod,
26:19
you enjoy the breakdowns. Are we going to win every game
26:22
we talked about? No, but sports betting is
26:24
difficult. You got to remember that.
26:25
But the mindset of tracking the market, looking at line movement
26:29
system matches, bet splits, going contrarian, identifying
26:32
sharp action, flat betting, not parlaying.
26:34
If any of this is now appealing to you, win, lose or draw,
26:38
you've now been provided a model of a blueprint to follow and
26:41
hopefully get even better at the more experience that you get.
26:45
But if that's the case and you want to learn more about
26:47
data-driven sharp contrarian betting or you just want to make
26:49
my day and make me happy, but also you're going to get
26:51
something out of it as well, go buy my book.
26:54
Go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
26:57
Betting, pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
27:00
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
27:02
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
27:05
locate sharp action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet
27:08
in person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
27:11
a bankroll management plan, all included in the Everything Guide
27:14
to Sports Betting. So buy a copy for you or a buddy
27:17
or a friend or family member or just yourself and bring it to
27:22
the book. When I see you there at the
27:23
Encore in Boston, my closest book, I will buy you a beer and
27:27
I'll sign the copy for you and we'll have a good night
27:29
together. Anyway, that about does it.
27:32
I want to leave you with this, of course, as always.
27:34
Have you signed up for a free seven day trial of Juice Reel
27:37
and Rhythm? Well, they're two of my favorite
27:40
sports betting apps. They help me win.
27:42
They're gonna help you win if they're not already helping you
27:44
win, but with Rhythm, they're AI backed models and predictions
27:47
for both game bets and player props have really helped me in
27:51
terms of cashing tickets and having my breakdown and kind of
27:55
approach to the market. And then looking at what Rhythm
27:57
is telling me. It gives me another box to check
28:00
to feel more confident that I'm I'm on the sharp side.
28:02
Also with Juice Reel, fantastic AI best bet picks.
28:06
If you want to follow those. They come out at noon each day.
28:09
I forgot to mention that Robo Jackson is on the Patriots with
28:12
us plus 6 1/2. So that's good.
28:14
But also the arbitrage bats, the sharp mush plays, all included
28:17
when you sync up your sports books and become a Juice Reel
28:21
member. But if you haven't done it yet,
28:23
go sign up. We got to do it in this
28:24
particular way. Guys.
28:25
Make sure you go to the bio description of the pod.
28:30
It'll say, for example, today I'll say something like an
28:32
episode 123. Josh dishes out a 5 pack of
28:35
sweats across NFL, college, blah, blah blah blah.
28:38
Scroll down, pass that. There'll be a link for Juice
28:40
Reel and a link for Rhythm. Click those custom links start
28:44
your accounts and I I can't guarantee you winners because
28:47
nothing is a guarantee in betting, but I can guarantee
28:50
that you are going to be, I would say impressed and it's
28:53
going to make you look at betting a little bit differently
28:55
because you're leaning on AI driven data.
28:58
So that about does it guys. Another pot here in the books,
29:01
episode 123, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
29:05
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
29:07
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
29:10
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
29:13
And my neck of the woods in Massachusetts are out in the
29:15
desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters
29:18
sends his number runners, where the lowest juice possible is
29:20
found at the South Point. So in sharp contrarian plays,
29:22
jumping in the stadium swimming pool, when you catch a big
29:25
ticket, you're going to walk up to me, you're going to show me
29:27
AD backs ticket from yesterday and AD backs over 83 and half
29:31
win total. You'll have to see it.
29:34
But that about does it, guys. Of course, my parting words, as
29:38
always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
29:41
public, place yourself on the side of the house, always be
29:43
with the smart money, never against it.
29:45
Will smart money when every time, of course not, because
29:48
again, betting is hard. Nothing's guaranteed.
29:50
But here's the thing, If we can consistently stay true to the
29:53
model that with our head and not our heart, against the public,
29:56
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get
29:59
that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
30:01
to be cool. We're going to be good long
30:03
term. So anyway, guys, enjoy your
30:05
Thursday. We'll be back at it tomorrow.
30:07
You should be getting ready for a biting play as we look to
30:11
start a new win streak, I should say.
30:13
But I will see you all for a big Friday tomorrow for episode 123
30:17
of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
30:20
Rhythm. Good luck everybody.
30:22
Have a great Thursday night.