Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / 2026 Big 12 Football Preview & Predictions
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- 0:00Speaker 1: On today's show, I'm giving my twenty twenty six preview
- 0:03Speaker 1: picks and predictions for the Big Twelve. Well, come in,
- 0:10Speaker 1: this is Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
- 0:13Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on All
- 0:16Speaker 1: the Socials. This is the Monday, August third edition of
- 0:20Speaker 1: the show. Today we are discussing the Big Twelve, which
- 0:23Speaker 1: is the last of my conference previews. Over the next
- 0:26Speaker 1: few weeks, I'm gonna give you more of my favorite
- 0:28Speaker 1: win totals, my future picks, along with playoff predictions, a
- 0:32Speaker 1: whole lot more, and of course, once the season gets here,
- 0:35Speaker 1: I'm going over a ton of games every single week,
- 0:37Speaker 1: along with storylines, etc. But I'm gonna do that all
- 0:41Speaker 1: right here and at buy Me a Coffee dot com
- 0:44Speaker 1: slash Winning Cures, So you know, for now, since you're
- 0:47Speaker 1: here anyway, hit that subscribe button, like the video, jump
- 0:51Speaker 1: in the comments, all that good stuff. Now, let's go
- 0:54Speaker 1: on and get this pod rolling. All right, let's talk
- 0:56Speaker 1: about the Big Twelve, because I think Texas Tech may
- 1:02Speaker 1: have broken this thing right. For years, the identity of
- 1:05Speaker 1: this league has been one word, and that's been chaos.
- 1:07Speaker 1: You look at the standings in September, feel like you
- 1:10Speaker 1: had it figured out. Three weeks later, the whole board
- 1:12Speaker 1: just flips. Right favorites lose to you know, whoever it
- 1:17Speaker 1: might be on some weird Tuesday kind of road trip.
- 1:21Speaker 1: Whatever right playoff contender is suddenly sitting in fifth place
- 1:25Speaker 1: after a couple of Saturdays. Basically, everybody had a road
- 1:29Speaker 1: to Arlington for the championship game, and nobody felt safe
- 1:34Speaker 1: at any point because crazy stuff was gonna happen. I
- 1:37Speaker 1: don't think that's what this league is anymore, right Texas
- 1:40Speaker 1: Tech didn't back into the twenty twenty five Big Twelve title.
- 1:43Speaker 1: They didn't survive a stack of coin flip games and
- 1:46Speaker 1: slide through the back door. They beat the breaks off
- 1:49Speaker 1: of this conference. Ten games against Big twelve opponents. Red
- 1:53Speaker 1: Erators won those by an average of over twenty seven points.
- 1:56Speaker 1: They played BYU and Utah three times combined outscored twenty
- 2:01Speaker 1: four I don't feel like that's parody, Like that's separation.
- 2:05Speaker 1: Right now, Tech of course rolls into twenty twenty six.
- 2:08Speaker 1: They got one of the deepest rosters in the league.
- 2:10Speaker 1: They got the best projected defense in the conference. Again
- 2:13Speaker 1: of running the back room that you know is borderline
- 2:16Speaker 1: unfair and according to my model, at least the easiest
- 2:19Speaker 1: schedule of any of the Big twelfth title contenders. And
- 2:22Speaker 1: the one wrinkle, of course, soarsby out of quarterback that
- 2:25Speaker 1: makes this officially Will Hammond's team, and that turns into
- 2:29Speaker 1: kind of a whose quarterback two story, and that's you know,
- 2:35Speaker 1: that's the most important question in the league really. Even
- 2:38Speaker 1: with the uncertainty, though, Tech still the clear favorite. I mean,
- 2:42Speaker 1: this roster is loaded. The real drama here is going
- 2:44Speaker 1: to be everything that happens one level down right BYU
- 2:49Speaker 1: They've got the safest challenger profile in the league. Utah
- 2:53Speaker 1: still has Devin dan Pire, but nearly everything else around
- 2:56Speaker 1: him got rebuilt Kansas State, brand new head coach that
- 3:00Speaker 1: has some familiarity obviously, and they've got a schedule that
- 3:04Speaker 1: honestly looks like it was drawn up by a k
- 3:05Speaker 1: State booster if we're being honest. Houston's got Willie Fritz
- 3:09Speaker 1: and Connor Wigman, maybe the best collection of line play
- 3:11Speaker 1: outside of Lubbock. However, they won a lot of close
- 3:16Speaker 1: games last year. I don't know if that necessarily means
- 3:18Speaker 1: they're ready to dominate, but we'll see. Arizona got no
- 3:21Speaker 1: a fafieda back and enough talent to be able to
- 3:23Speaker 1: scare people. But to me, they also drew the hardest
- 3:27Speaker 1: schedule in the conference, so you know, good luck with it.
- 3:30Speaker 1: TCU keeps winning, but now they got to replace Josh
- 3:32Speaker 1: Hoover who heads over to Indiana and they're running headfirst
- 3:36Speaker 1: in the best teams in this conference, and then Oklahoma
- 3:39Speaker 1: State one to eleven, they fired Mike Gundy. They responded
- 3:43Speaker 1: by basically importing the entire offense that led the country
- 3:47Speaker 1: in scoring at North Texas. Not bad, not bad. So yeah,
- 3:52Speaker 1: chaos is still here. It just has a much bigger
- 3:55Speaker 1: hill to climb in Lubbock. Now. So the question for
- 3:59Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, I think, in one sentence, is going
- 4:02Speaker 1: to be has Texas Tech become the first true powerhouse
- 4:05Speaker 1: of the rebuilt Big twelve or does one of these
- 4:10Speaker 1: eight teams underneath them find a way to real him in.
- 4:12Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and jump into it. The easiest way
- 4:15Speaker 1: to think about this league right now is that it's
- 4:18Speaker 1: top heavy and exactly one spot and pretty balanced everywhere else.
- 4:21Speaker 1: Texas Tech is alone at the top of well pretty
- 4:25Speaker 1: much everybody's projections seventh nationally and sp plus, averaging out
- 4:30Speaker 1: to ten point seven wins. Seven point eight conference wins
- 4:34Speaker 1: projected after that. BYU is eighteenth in SP plus, Utah
- 4:38Speaker 1: is twenty fourth, Kansas State twenty ninth, Arizona thirtieth, TCU
- 4:43Speaker 1: thirty fourth, Houston thirty sixth, in Oklahoma State thirty ninth.
- 4:47Speaker 1: So you got one team that looks like they could
- 4:49Speaker 1: be a national title contender, and then seven more that
- 4:52Speaker 1: are all bunched together in a fairly type band back
- 4:54Speaker 1: behind them. Texas Tech has got a sixty two point
- 4:57Speaker 1: nine percent shot at reaching eleven wins in our model.
- 5:01Speaker 1: Nobody else in the league even cracks ten percent. Like
- 5:05Speaker 1: that's that is a canyon between those two. I mean,
- 5:10Speaker 1: what a huge difference. But from BYU on down through
- 5:13Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, the standings could end up shaped more by
- 5:17Speaker 1: you know, who's on the schedule than by who's actually
- 5:20Speaker 1: the better team. And that's what makes the conference fun
- 5:22Speaker 1: this year. I think Texas Tech doesn't play BYU, Utah
- 5:26Speaker 1: or Kansas State this season. Kansas State doesn't play Tech
- 5:30Speaker 1: BYU or Utah BYU, they skip Tech, Kansas State and Houston.
- 5:36Speaker 1: Utah avoids Tech entirely. Meanwhile, Arizona plays basically everybody. They
- 5:41Speaker 1: draw all five of the other top six teams. TCU,
- 5:46Speaker 1: they play all five of the highest projected squads. Houston's
- 5:49Speaker 1: got road trips to Texas Tech, to Kansas State and Utah.
- 5:54Speaker 1: So you could absolutely have a team finished second in
- 5:56Speaker 1: the standings without being the second best team in the
- 5:57Speaker 1: league the way the schedule lottery hits sometimes. And on
- 6:02Speaker 1: the flip side, you could have a legitimately good football
- 6:04Speaker 1: team finished seventh just because it kept running into contenders
- 6:08Speaker 1: every other week. Right, you got sixteen teams not nearly
- 6:11Speaker 1: enough overlap among the ones actually built to compete, and
- 6:15Speaker 1: that's the hangover from realignment. Nobody's walking in this year,
- 6:18Speaker 1: nobody's walking out. But the sheer size of this league
- 6:22Speaker 1: means that the standings get warped by who you simply
- 6:25Speaker 1: don't play. So you got to have a and it's
- 6:29Speaker 1: like this with every conference at this point, Right, you
- 6:31Speaker 1: got to have the right schedule and the right team
- 6:37Speaker 1: in order to get to where you want to go.
- 6:40Speaker 1: The Big Twelve is celebrating its thirtieth anniversary this year,
- 6:43Speaker 1: and get this, only seven of the original twelve programs
- 6:47Speaker 1: are still in this league. It's pretty wild right, pretty wild.
- 6:51Speaker 1: It has changed almost beyond recognition, and Texas Tech is
- 6:55Speaker 1: trying to become the program that defines whatever this new
- 6:58Speaker 1: version turns into. Now. Offensively, this conference is still quarterback
- 7:02Speaker 1: driven and creative as hell. Right, You've got established guys
- 7:06Speaker 1: like bear Backmeyer at BYU, Devin dan Pierre at Utah,
- 7:09Speaker 1: Noah Fafida at Arizona, Connor Woolman at Houston, Avery Johnson
- 7:12Speaker 1: at Kansas State. You got big name transfers that are
- 7:15Speaker 1: coming into Drew Mestenmaker, of course, landed at Oklahoma State
- 7:18Speaker 1: after being at North Texas. You got Jayden Craig at TCU,
- 7:23Speaker 1: A Linza Barnett the Third at UCF, DJ Lagway at Florida.
- 7:26Speaker 1: I mean sorry at Baylor. I mean these guys have
- 7:31Speaker 1: been everybody's attacking it differently. Right. BYU wants to control
- 7:35Speaker 1: the game. L J. Martin for returning offensive lineman, a
- 7:38Speaker 1: quarterback who already showed he can handle pressure as a
- 7:40Speaker 1: true freshman last year Utah. They want to lean on
- 7:44Speaker 1: dam Peter's legs along with way Seawan Parker, even though
- 7:48Speaker 1: the entire starting offensive line has gone Oklahoma State is
- 7:51Speaker 1: going to play fast like Eric Morris brought his whole
- 7:55Speaker 1: North Texas system with him. Houston wants experienced, they want physics, cacality.
- 8:00Speaker 1: They're letting Wigman create as both the passer and the runner.
- 8:03Speaker 1: Of course, they brought in They brought in the old
- 8:06Speaker 1: running back from two Lane that went to Oregon, who
- 8:09Speaker 1: now comes back over to Houston. So Arizona needs Fafita
- 8:13Speaker 1: to keep making good decisions. Of course, the skill positions
- 8:17Speaker 1: are being rebuilt around him. We'll see what happens there. UCF.
- 8:20Speaker 1: Of course, the dual threat identity, the mate Scott Frost
- 8:22Speaker 1: offense so dangerous back in the day. But they brought
- 8:25Speaker 1: in Eliza Barnett from JMU from James Madison fresh off
- 8:29Speaker 1: of playoff appearance last year. There's also a massive coaching
- 8:33Speaker 1: shakeup that happened across the league. Like the Big twelve
- 8:35Speaker 1: got more creative this offseason, but he got a lot
- 8:38Speaker 1: less stable. I think you start at Utah where Morgan
- 8:40Speaker 1: Scaley steps in for Kyle Whittingham. That's one of the
- 8:44Speaker 1: toughest transitions in the country because Whittingham wasn't just a
- 8:49Speaker 1: good coach, he was that program's identity. Now Scaley knows
- 8:52Speaker 1: the Coultre, He's been there forever knows what Utah is
- 8:54Speaker 1: supposed to look like. But he's also breaking in a
- 8:57Speaker 1: new offensive coordinator and Kevin mcgiven Colton Swan slides over
- 9:01Speaker 1: to run the defense. So you talked, you know, trying
- 9:04Speaker 1: to keep his personality intact while swapping out basically everyone
- 9:07Speaker 1: responsible for maintaining it. At Kansas State, Chris Clemon retired,
- 9:14Speaker 1: Colin Klein is taking over the rains. This is a
- 9:17Speaker 1: fascinating one. Klein his offensive background looks like it lines
- 9:20Speaker 1: up perfectly with what every Johnson does well. And that's
- 9:23Speaker 1: because he has already coached Everie Johnson at one point.
- 9:26Speaker 1: He Klein went over to Texas A and M for
- 9:29Speaker 1: two years as the offensive coordinator, but he coached every
- 9:34Speaker 1: Johnson that first year Kline went to school at Kansas State.
- 9:39Speaker 1: He played there. He knows that place. The question with Johnson,
- 9:45Speaker 1: I mean, he's always had the tools. It's always whether
- 9:50Speaker 1: Kansas State could turn those flashes into something consistent. I
- 9:53Speaker 1: think Klein understands quarterback movement, understands how to scheme with
- 9:56Speaker 1: a mobile guy, and he knows man Nattan Kansas inside
- 10:00Speaker 1: and out. He's still a first year head coach that
- 10:05Speaker 1: has got to deal with some major questions on both
- 10:07Speaker 1: sides of the ball. There. Oklahoma State, of course, Eric
- 10:11Speaker 1: Morrison for Gundy after just a disaster one and eleven season,
- 10:15Speaker 1: and he was three to nine before that. This is
- 10:19Speaker 1: not your typical rebuild. Morris brought in his quarterback, mister Maker,
- 10:23Speaker 1: brought his running back Caleb Hawkins, receivers young and Coleman
- 10:28Speaker 1: offensive lineman. I mean that a ton of most of
- 10:30Speaker 1: his coaching staff, a handful of defensive players, all from
- 10:33Speaker 1: North Texas. So Oklahoma State didn't just tow a coach.
- 10:36Speaker 1: They brought an entire system along with the roster, and
- 10:40Speaker 1: they just moved it right over to Stillwater Wich effectively
- 10:44Speaker 1: what Iowa State did moving everybody over to Penn State. Right.
- 10:49Speaker 1: Bring it up, Iowa State, I mean, we got to
- 10:51Speaker 1: bring up Jimmy Rodgers. He replaces Campbell Rogers and defensive
- 10:55Speaker 1: coordinator Jesse Bobbitt. They've they've got solid rebuilding resumes. But
- 10:59Speaker 1: I meant five players. I believe that's the number. Fifty
- 11:03Speaker 1: five players left ams through the portal. None of the
- 11:05Speaker 1: meaningful offensive production is back. Only five defenders who logged
- 11:08Speaker 1: one hundre plus Napster returning that might be the toughest
- 11:11Speaker 1: immediate job in the entire conference. But I mean we
- 11:15Speaker 1: saw what Rogers was able to do in one year
- 11:17Speaker 1: at Washington State when nobody was left over there either,
- 11:21Speaker 1: So who knows who knows? Got a few coordinator moves
- 11:25Speaker 1: to to point out as well. I mean, we can
- 11:27Speaker 1: flag these just to keep an eye on it. Kelly
- 11:29Speaker 1: Popinga takes over BYU's defense from j Hill. Joe Klanderman
- 11:34Speaker 1: becomes dave A. Randa's third defensive coordinator at Baylor in
- 11:37Speaker 1: well in the last three years. Actually, Gordon Samus is
- 11:40Speaker 1: running TCU's offense now, and he's expected to build something
- 11:45Speaker 1: lower turnover around a new quarterback. Of course, the kid
- 11:48Speaker 1: from Harvard. I'm intrigued. I'm intrigued with this one. Of course,
- 11:55Speaker 1: Sam's coming from Yukon, like they did really good things
- 12:00Speaker 1: under Jim Mora. So but now he's over at TCU
- 12:03Speaker 1: and Kotlnikki back at Kansas. That should be an instant
- 12:06Speaker 1: schematic upgrade, even with the quarterback spots still unsettled. Britta
- 12:10Speaker 1: Marian of course, brings his go go offense to Colorado.
- 12:13Speaker 1: Chris Marv's got to rebuild a defense there that replaces
- 12:16Speaker 1: almost everybody Nate Woody inherits the Cincinnati defense that lost
- 12:20Speaker 1: most of its front and its secondary. I mean, the
- 12:23Speaker 1: league has got more offensive ideas floating around than it
- 12:27Speaker 1: did a year ago. What it might not have is
- 12:28Speaker 1: the continuity to know which of those ideas would actually
- 12:32Speaker 1: work right away. And nowhere does that uncertainty matter more
- 12:36Speaker 1: than at quarterback. Right the established tier is legitimately impressive.
- 12:42Speaker 1: Bachmeyer probably the safest quarterback among the tech Chasers. I
- 12:47Speaker 1: think that's what we'll call him. He played at a
- 12:51Speaker 1: high level as a true freshman. Last year. He even
- 12:53Speaker 1: came in late, got the start or got the starting gig,
- 12:57Speaker 1: did good things right, then went twelve and two. Last
- 12:59Speaker 1: year he gets LJ. Martin back. They sit behind four
- 13:03Speaker 1: returning offensive lineman. The concern to Bhyu as the receiver
- 13:06Speaker 1: room and you know sources is very on exactly how
- 13:09Speaker 1: much is gone. But as clear as somebody knew needs
- 13:13Speaker 1: to step up outside. Dan Pierre might be the most
- 13:16Speaker 1: dangerous individual athlete. I mean not just at that pent,
- 13:21Speaker 1: he might be the most dangerous athlete in the whole league.
- 13:24Speaker 1: I get twenty four touchdown passes, you cut down his mistakes.
- 13:28Speaker 1: He finished with over thirty three hundred yards last year,
- 13:31Speaker 1: thirty four total touchdowns. Utah ranked seventh nationally in success
- 13:35Speaker 1: rate and first and red zone touchdown rate. But he's
- 13:38Speaker 1: also breaking in a new coordinator behind five new offensive
- 13:41Speaker 1: line starters. That's not good. Fafita. Of course, entering year
- 13:45Speaker 1: four as Arizona starter, he's got over nine thousand career
- 13:48Speaker 1: passing yards seventy three career touchdowns. I mean, that's bananas.
- 13:54Speaker 1: He's set a record last year, program record, had twenty
- 13:57Speaker 1: nine scoring passes in twenty twenty five, and he does
- 14:00Speaker 1: doesn't turn the ball over. Connor Wigman at Houston, that's
- 14:02Speaker 1: another one over through for over twenty seven hundred yards
- 14:05Speaker 1: last year, added to almost eight hundred yards rushing outside
- 14:09Speaker 1: of sacks, and was responsible for thirty six total touchdowns.
- 14:12Speaker 1: He gets a Mari Thomas back in the slot, should
- 14:15Speaker 1: have better protection up front this time around. And then
- 14:17Speaker 1: I brought up Avery Johnson before remains one of the
- 14:19Speaker 1: most gifted athletes at the position in the country. Klein's
- 14:22Speaker 1: job is turning him into a more natural, decisive runner
- 14:25Speaker 1: instead of a guy who occasionally remembers that he's pretty dangerous.
- 14:28Speaker 1: At doing that. And then of course there's Tech. Like
- 14:32Speaker 1: Sowersby was the original plan. He was the final piece
- 14:35Speaker 1: on the roster that was built to win the league already,
- 14:38Speaker 1: So that plan's dead. Will Hammond now inherits the most
- 14:42Speaker 1: talented team in this conference, and the pressure is going
- 14:45Speaker 1: to be on him big time, big time now Tech.
- 14:50Speaker 1: To be fair, Tech doesn't need Hammond to carry the
- 14:53Speaker 1: whole operation, like there's enough talent at running back, on
- 14:55Speaker 1: the line, across the defense, etc. To protect him. But
- 14:58Speaker 1: there is a real difference between plugging in an established
- 15:01Speaker 1: transfer to elevate a national contender and asking a first
- 15:05Speaker 1: time starter to manage the expectations of a team that's
- 15:07Speaker 1: sitting at even money to win the league. That quarterback
- 15:10Speaker 1: chains doesn't knock Tech off the top spot for me,
- 15:13Speaker 1: it does shrink the gap between them and the rest
- 15:15Speaker 1: of the field. I think the biggest spot is what
- 15:19Speaker 1: it means for their national title hopes. Of course, Hammon's
- 15:21Speaker 1: coming off of an injury. He should be better or
- 15:25Speaker 1: should be healed up. I would think they said by
- 15:27Speaker 1: week three, but now it looks like he might start
- 15:29Speaker 1: the season. We're going to see what that looks like.
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- 15:59Speaker 1: become part of the commune today. All right, so let's
- 16:02Speaker 1: sort these sixteen teams into tiers, right, starting with the
- 16:05Speaker 1: four programs I think actually have a real shot at
- 16:08Speaker 1: the conference title. Tier one. We got Texas Tech's number one.
- 16:12Speaker 1: It's not really a debate. Best overall roster, deepest running
- 16:16Speaker 1: back room, best projected defense, friendliest schedule, et cetera. You
- 16:20Speaker 1: got Cameron Dickey, you got Jacoby Williams, you got Quentin Joyner.
- 16:24Speaker 1: It gives him a backfield that can control games without
- 16:27Speaker 1: dumping everything on him and shoulders. The line is experienced,
- 16:30Speaker 1: the receiver depth is improved. And on defense, yeah, they
- 16:34Speaker 1: lost David Bailey and Jacob Bradriguez, but they reloaded through
- 16:36Speaker 1: the portal. I mean, you got aj Holmes you got
- 16:39Speaker 1: Adam Trick, Ben Roberts, Austin Romayne, like etc. Bryce Pollock.
- 16:44Speaker 1: It projects out to be the best front six and
- 16:47Speaker 1: the deepest front six and the deepest secondary in the league.
- 16:51Speaker 1: Like this team can beat you in multiple ways, run
- 16:53Speaker 1: it down your throat, create negative plays, win the field
- 16:55Speaker 1: position battle. They allowed depth you in the fourth quarter.
- 16:58Speaker 1: I mean the obvious question mark, because what happens if
- 17:00Speaker 1: Hammond isn't ready for you know, the weight of national
- 17:05Speaker 1: title expectations, And I don't think anybody's necessarily expecting a
- 17:09Speaker 1: national title, but by the time you get to the playoff,
- 17:13Speaker 1: that's that's what they're gonna be looking for. So what
- 17:15Speaker 1: happens if one freshman quarterback mistake creates the single bad Saturday.
- 17:20Speaker 1: This otherwise bulletproof schedule was avoid or was designed to avoid.
- 17:25Speaker 1: Look at the market. Market's got tech at plus one
- 17:28Speaker 1: hundred to win the conference when total ten and a
- 17:30Speaker 1: half price kind of tells you everything you need to know,
- 17:32Speaker 1: Like world expects them to win this thing, and you're
- 17:34Speaker 1: paying full price for that expectation. The ceiling here is
- 17:39Speaker 1: an undefeated big twelve run and a real shot at
- 17:41Speaker 1: the national title. Flor is probably still nine wins because
- 17:44Speaker 1: the roster and the schedule they're that strong. We'll move
- 17:47Speaker 1: over to BYU twelve and two a year ago. They
- 17:51Speaker 1: bring back Bachmeyer, a thirteen hundred yard runner in LJ.
- 17:53Speaker 1: Martin for a veteran linemen. That's about as good as
- 17:57Speaker 1: you can get for a starting point experience defense as
- 18:01Speaker 1: well right now obviously, well we'll talk about that here
- 18:04Speaker 1: in a minute, but veteran linebackers, strong cornerback room, pass
- 18:08Speaker 1: rush needs to take a step under Papinga. And of course,
- 18:11Speaker 1: losing Jay Hill matters more than people think. I think
- 18:15Speaker 1: because he wasn't just another assistant. He built that whole
- 18:18Speaker 1: defensive identity there. Receiver room is the other question mark
- 18:24Speaker 1: right Backmeier is maybe one of the better quarterbacks in
- 18:26Speaker 1: this league, but somebody has got to consistently win outside
- 18:29Speaker 1: and create some explosive plays for them. The schedule does
- 18:32Speaker 1: help for BYU right no k State, No Tech, no Houston.
- 18:36Speaker 1: They sit at plus five point fifty to win the league.
- 18:38Speaker 1: The win total eight and a half right ceiling probably
- 18:42Speaker 1: another eleven win season in a playoff bid. And honestly,
- 18:45Speaker 1: if you ask me, which team stays functional even when
- 18:47Speaker 1: things don't break perfectly. I'd say BYU right, established quarterback,
- 18:51Speaker 1: proven back, continuity, up front, defensive experience, Like, that's a
- 18:55Speaker 1: pretty safe floor. Utahs third like eleven and two last
- 19:00Speaker 1: year damp Pier and uh Way Shawn Parker, they're both back.
- 19:05Speaker 1: No Texas tech on the schedule. BYU comes to Salt Lake,
- 19:08Speaker 1: they draw five of the bottom six projected teams in
- 19:11Speaker 1: the league. Like the path is there in front of them.
- 19:14Speaker 1: But the obvious problem, of course, Utah is replacing almost
- 19:19Speaker 1: everything that makes Utah right. I think that's the biggest thing.
- 19:25Speaker 1: New head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator. All
- 19:27Speaker 1: five starting offensive linemen are gone. The front seven needs rebuilding.
- 19:31Speaker 1: Damp Pier's legs can paper over some issues, but even
- 19:34Speaker 1: the best duel threat guys struggle when there's zero push upfront. Right,
- 19:38Speaker 1: Utah plus six fifty to win it all again, I
- 19:41Speaker 1: say it win it all to win the conference. Ceiling
- 19:44Speaker 1: is probably ten and two or eleven to one again.
- 19:46Speaker 1: A trip to Arlington floor drops fast if that offensive
- 19:49Speaker 1: line transition doesn't hold, And that might be the widest
- 19:51Speaker 1: gap in the league between you know what the schedule
- 19:54Speaker 1: sets up and how much internal turnover they're trying to
- 19:56Speaker 1: survive at the same time. Kansas State my other tier one,
- 20:00Speaker 1: and I get it if you think they're not the
- 20:04Speaker 1: fourth best stross during this conference, Like you might be right,
- 20:08Speaker 1: but they might not need to be because Kansas State
- 20:10Speaker 1: avoids tech BYU and Utah entirely. They draw three of
- 20:13Speaker 1: the bottom five projected teams and are only an underdog
- 20:16Speaker 1: in in one single SP plus matchup all year. Like
- 20:21Speaker 1: that's how the schedule broke for them. Of course, Klein
- 20:24Speaker 1: and Harriets, Avery Johnson, some veteran pass catchers, Joe Jackson
- 20:28Speaker 1: at running back. The Lions are getting rebuilt through the portal,
- 20:30Speaker 1: which is a risk, and there's a new head coach,
- 20:33Speaker 1: new defensive coordinator in Jordan Peterson to account for two.
- 20:35Speaker 1: But last year Kansas State went two and five and
- 20:38Speaker 1: one score games. Five of the six losses came by
- 20:40Speaker 1: one possession. Like, tighten that up, just a little bit.
- 20:43Speaker 1: Paired up with this schedule suddenly, I mean, you're in
- 20:47Speaker 1: Arlington without needing some dramatic leaping overall talent right, conference
- 20:52Speaker 1: sides are plus thirteen hundred win total at seven and
- 20:54Speaker 1: a half. Ceiling is ten and two. I think the
- 20:58Speaker 1: floor is probably seven and five if the line never settle. Right. So,
- 21:02Speaker 1: Texas Tech best team BYU most dependable challenger. Utah has
- 21:06Speaker 1: got the quarterback and a friendly draw. Kansas State has
- 21:09Speaker 1: got the cleanest roadmap. Right. Those are the four contenders
- 21:13Speaker 1: as far as Tier two. These are your dark horses,
- 21:15Speaker 1: the teams that I've got dangerous enough to sneak into Arlington.
- 21:18Speaker 1: But each one has got like a a structural flaw
- 21:23Speaker 1: that's keeping it out of Tier one. Right. Houston, I
- 21:26Speaker 1: think leads this group. Fritz has built a mature roster, experience,
- 21:30Speaker 1: a quarterback strength on both lines. They're bringing back sixty
- 21:32Speaker 1: five percent of their production seventeenth nationally. Wigman was responsible
- 21:36Speaker 1: for thirty six touchdowns. Mario Thomas is back in the slot.
- 21:41Speaker 1: That's awesome. Mackay Hughes, of course I brought him up.
- 21:43Speaker 1: He bolsters the run game. I'm sure he's glad to
- 21:46Speaker 1: be back with Willie Fritz after going over to Oregon.
- 21:49Speaker 1: But I mean Houston has added three all conference trandsfers upfront,
- 21:55Speaker 1: Slade Nichols offense jumped from one eighteenth to forty fourth
- 22:00Speaker 1: to be plus last year. I mean, that's pretty good
- 22:02Speaker 1: progress to me. This is not a gimmick team, like
- 22:07Speaker 1: they can be physically good. The problem is the schedule
- 22:09Speaker 1: in the close game history. Houston won six one score
- 22:12Speaker 1: games last year as real hard to run that back twice.
- 22:16Speaker 1: They've also got five conference road games that includes Texas Tech,
- 22:20Speaker 1: Kansas State, and Utah, and their final seven games are
- 22:23Speaker 1: all projected within one score, like they're plus sixteen hundred
- 22:27Speaker 1: to win it. Seven and a half win total. Yeah,
- 22:30Speaker 1: ceiling nine wins and a title game trip, but the
- 22:33Speaker 1: floor is maybe six wins if those close games start
- 22:37Speaker 1: bouncing the other way. Like, there's a lot of people
- 22:39Speaker 1: that have Houston as their sleeper team, but I'm I'm concerned.
- 22:44Speaker 1: I think Arizona I've got next year. Grab a drink
- 22:48Speaker 1: of my coffee. So Arizona is one of They've got
- 22:54Speaker 1: one of the more experienced quarterbacks in the country and
- 22:57Speaker 1: a defense that should stay in the top half of
- 22:58Speaker 1: the league. Gonzales, of course, the defense coordinated there. He's
- 23:01Speaker 1: still got Chase Kennedy, Tay Brown, Javion Cole plus some
- 23:06Speaker 1: useful portal editions on defense. The biggest asset on this
- 23:10Speaker 1: team is obviously Feffita. Right, He's seen it all. He
- 23:13Speaker 1: protects the ball. He keeps Arizona competitive even when the
- 23:15Speaker 1: rest of the offense isn't clicking. But the leading rushers
- 23:18Speaker 1: and receivers all need replacing. And the schedule is brutal.
- 23:21Speaker 1: I mean, it's just rough. Arizona plays all five of
- 23:23Speaker 1: the other top six teams. You got road trips to BYU,
- 23:26Speaker 1: Texas TCH and Kansas State like that late season stretch here,
- 23:31Speaker 1: they've got Texas Tech, TCU, Utah, Kansas State, Arizona State.
- 23:36Speaker 1: I mean, that's ridiculous. Arizona might be genuinely good, like
- 23:41Speaker 1: they might be good enough to compete for a title,
- 23:43Speaker 1: and they still might finish seven to five. So their
- 23:46Speaker 1: plus two thousand win total sits at seven and a half.
- 23:49Speaker 1: Ceiling is probably nine wins, the floor is probably six
- 23:53Speaker 1: somewhere in between there. I mean, it's almost entirely because
- 23:55Speaker 1: of who's on the on the schedule, right TCU, I've
- 23:58Speaker 1: got number three in my tier nine wins and back
- 24:01Speaker 1: to back years. Sunny Dykes has built a pretty reliable floor,
- 24:04Speaker 1: and the defensive line could be one of the better
- 24:06Speaker 1: groups in the entire league. You got Jamel Johnson, who
- 24:09Speaker 1: gives them high end individual talent. The staff should improve
- 24:12Speaker 1: a secondary that was a real problem in twenty twenty
- 24:14Speaker 1: five quarterback, of course, Jaden Craig, Harvard transfer. He put
- 24:19Speaker 1: up fifty almost fifty three hundred yards, forty eight touchdowns,
- 24:22Speaker 1: and just ten picks over his last two seasons. I mean,
- 24:25Speaker 1: these are great numbers, but the question obviously is whether
- 24:28Speaker 1: or not that translates from the IVY League over to
- 24:31Speaker 1: a Big twelve schedule that includes all five of the
- 24:35Speaker 1: top projected teams. TCU closes with four straight contenders in November.
- 24:40Speaker 1: I mean, it is a rough way to start the
- 24:42Speaker 1: year or to finish the year after they started with
- 24:47Speaker 1: a new quarterback. They're plus two thousand, same as Arizona.
- 24:51Speaker 1: Win total is at six and a half. Ceiling is
- 24:53Speaker 1: probably nine wins for them, floor around six, I would imagine.
- 24:59Speaker 1: I mean, I think, unless things just go way off
- 25:01Speaker 1: the rails and then to me, the most entertaining team
- 25:05Speaker 1: in the conference, Oklahoma State one and eleven. Last year,
- 25:09Speaker 1: Fired Gundy brought in Eric Morris, brought the whole North
- 25:12Speaker 1: Texas offense along with others with him. Mess To Maker
- 25:15Speaker 1: threw for around forty three hundred yards in that exact system.
- 25:18Speaker 1: Last year, Caleb Hawkins followed him to Stillwater. Why Young
- 25:22Speaker 1: followed him, Yeah, I mean Miles Coleman jumped over. Multiple
- 25:27Speaker 1: linemen followed. I mean the language of the timing, the reads,
- 25:30Speaker 1: it's all already familiar, and that matters enormously when you're
- 25:36Speaker 1: trying to rebuild in a hurry. Like Oklahoma State could
- 25:38Speaker 1: have a top twenty offense right out of the gate,
- 25:41Speaker 1: and you know, now we're wondering whether the defense can
- 25:44Speaker 1: just get to average. Skylar Cassidy doesn't need to build
- 25:47Speaker 1: one of the best units in the Big twelve. He's
- 25:48Speaker 1: just got to. He needs to keep the Cowboys from
- 25:51Speaker 1: bleeding so many points of the offense has no margin left.
- 25:54Speaker 1: And the schedule does set up beautifully right bottom five
- 25:57Speaker 1: projected teams only one Top six opponent all year, Like
- 26:01Speaker 1: outside of Oregon and Texas Tech, almost every game looks
- 26:04Speaker 1: winnable for them. So they're plus twenty seven hundred with
- 26:07Speaker 1: a win total of five and a half. Floor is
- 26:11Speaker 1: what floor? It's probably five and seven. If the defense
- 26:14Speaker 1: can't handle power four size and speed ceiling, probably nine
- 26:18Speaker 1: wins and they could really be in a chase for
- 26:21Speaker 1: the title. So wrap up Tier two Houston and Arizona
- 26:26Speaker 1: good team, stuck with terrible schedules. TCU's got winning pedigree,
- 26:30Speaker 1: but major quarterback transition. Oklahoma State's got the offense, the schedule,
- 26:34Speaker 1: and the widest range of outcomes of anybody in the league.
- 26:38Speaker 1: Tier two I think is chaotic. So let's talk about
- 26:41Speaker 1: Tier three now. Arizona State, they opened the third tier.
- 26:46Speaker 1: They're coming off in eight win season. We are now
- 26:49Speaker 1: two years removed from the playoff run. The roster that
- 26:54Speaker 1: produced that eight win season last year is basically gone.
- 26:57Speaker 1: Sam Levitt gone, Jordan Tyson gone, Relike Brown, He's off
- 27:00Speaker 1: to Texas. All five starting offensive lineman gone. Only eleven
- 27:05Speaker 1: of thirty four regular contributors are back. Quarterback competition between
- 27:09Speaker 1: Cutter Bowley, Mikey Keene, Cameron Dyer, and Jake Feet. It
- 27:15Speaker 1: might be fet you guys correct me in the comments.
- 27:18Speaker 1: Bowley is holding the early edge based on everything that
- 27:23Speaker 1: I've read so far. They also play four of the
- 27:26Speaker 1: top five projected teams, and thanks to an early buy,
- 27:29Speaker 1: they have to grind through nine straight weeks without a
- 27:32Speaker 1: break like a recent winning standard. Sure, but the roster
- 27:36Speaker 1: looks a lot more like a rebuild than a contender.
- 27:39Speaker 1: So my range for this bunch probably between five and
- 27:43Speaker 1: seven and seven and five. I don't expect much out
- 27:45Speaker 1: of Arizona State this year. UCF all right, this is
- 27:49Speaker 1: a fun one, much brighter outlook, I think this year.
- 27:52Speaker 1: Alonza Barnett, the third comes in at quarterback. He threw
- 27:55Speaker 1: for over fifty four hundred yards, added about fourteen hundred
- 27:58Speaker 1: non sack rushing yards, and for seventy one touchdowns over
- 28:01Speaker 1: the last two seasons of James Madison. That's a major
- 28:05Speaker 1: upgrade at the position for them. The secondary's pretty senior heavy.
- 28:10Speaker 1: You got Jayden Bellamy, you got Antoine Jackson. DJ bell
- 28:14Speaker 1: could be one of the best pass defenses in the
- 28:16Speaker 1: league if the transfer pass rus comes together and the
- 28:18Speaker 1: schedule pretty manageable too. Like No Texas Tech just one
- 28:22Speaker 1: projected top five team. They host BYU right after the
- 28:26Speaker 1: Cougar's play excuse me, right after the Cougar's play Notre
- 28:31Speaker 1: Dame and you seef might start slow while the offense jels,
- 28:35Speaker 1: but there's a real past to six or seven wins here. Baylor,
- 28:38Speaker 1: of course, is betting everything on the physical upside of
- 28:42Speaker 1: DJ Lagway. You know, former Florida quarterback there, blue chip talent,
- 28:47Speaker 1: still an inconsistent decision maker. Almost the entire supporting cast
- 28:51Speaker 1: is new for them, including four new starters up front.
- 28:54Speaker 1: Joe Klanderman. He's there to fix the defense that's been
- 28:58Speaker 1: a persistent issue, and Baylor spent big in the portal
- 29:01Speaker 1: to help him. Randa is on one of the hotter
- 29:03Speaker 1: seats in the country, and the schedule offers zero mercy.
- 29:07Speaker 1: It's the third hardest draw in the league, closing with
- 29:09Speaker 1: BYU Texas Tech and Houston. The ceiling I think for
- 29:13Speaker 1: Baylor probably seven wins. If Lagway develops pretty quick and
- 29:16Speaker 1: if Klanderman, of course fixes things on the other side
- 29:18Speaker 1: of the ball, the floor is probably five or fewer wins.
- 29:21Speaker 1: If that new league offense never finds his footing like
- 29:24Speaker 1: it doesn't help that they have to play Auburn in
- 29:25Speaker 1: Week one, but if they if they win there in Atlanta,
- 29:30Speaker 1: I mean, who knows, who knows what they think of them.
- 29:32Speaker 1: Kansas brings back col Nikki to run that offense. That
- 29:34Speaker 1: should immediately make them harder to prepare for. The running
- 29:37Speaker 1: back room got a pretty nice boost. Their quarterback still
- 29:40Speaker 1: unsettled between Cole Ballard and Chase Jenkins and Isaiah Marshall.
- 29:45Speaker 1: All three have got dual threat traits, which works for
- 29:48Speaker 1: this offense. None have shown that they are capable of
- 29:51Speaker 1: replacing Jalen Daniels yet, not to mention, Kansas has five
- 29:55Speaker 1: conference road games, They've got Missouri outside of the league,
- 29:59Speaker 1: and they've got a conference game overseas like bull Eligible. Sure.
- 30:03Speaker 1: Between the quarterback uncertainty and all that travel, I don't
- 30:06Speaker 1: know if I'm going to be able to trust them
- 30:08Speaker 1: week to week. Cincinnati strong offensive line, mountain of questions
- 30:12Speaker 1: everywhere else they got to replace Swersby. They've got J. C. French,
- 30:17Speaker 1: Liam O'Brien, Samage Jones. They're all in the mix. French
- 30:22Speaker 1: I think looks like the favorite, but it's still a
- 30:24Speaker 1: major step down. Improven production. Defense is a full reset
- 30:29Speaker 1: under Nate Woody. After they lost most of the front,
- 30:31Speaker 1: most of the secondary. They got the second hardest schedule
- 30:34Speaker 1: in the whole league, like six of the top seven
- 30:37Speaker 1: projected teams. That offensive line might keep this from turning
- 30:40Speaker 1: into a complete disaster, but it doesn't fix everything else.
- 30:45Speaker 1: West Virginia I think closes out Tier three. Cam Cook,
- 30:49Speaker 1: of course, he came over from Jacksonville State, massively raises
- 30:52Speaker 1: the ceiling on that run game and a quarterback. You
- 30:56Speaker 1: got Michael Hawkins Junior, who I think is going to start,
- 30:58Speaker 1: and then Scottie Fox, and they offer two very different
- 31:01Speaker 1: flavors of upside right. Fox of course flashed some promise.
- 31:05Speaker 1: Hawkins carries the bigger recruiting pedigree and I think fits
- 31:09Speaker 1: more of what rich Rod wants to do. To me.
- 31:13Speaker 1: The issue is on defense. Only two experienced guys back
- 31:15Speaker 1: from last year's rotation, and they play six of the
- 31:18Speaker 1: top eight projected teams. Like there's enough offensive juice to
- 31:21Speaker 1: steal the game, they're probably not supposed to win. I
- 31:24Speaker 1: don't think there's enough defensive stability to string together like
- 31:28Speaker 1: six good saturdays. So in this tier, to summarize it,
- 31:34Speaker 1: UCF has got the best mix of the schedule and
- 31:36Speaker 1: quarterback upgrade. Arizona State has the highest recent ceiling with
- 31:41Speaker 1: the steepest roster losses. Baylor I think has the highest
- 31:45Speaker 1: quarterback ceiling. Cincinnati might have the nastiest combination of schedule
- 31:51Speaker 1: and personnel decline in the whole conference not good. So
- 31:56Speaker 1: now down at the bottom are rebuilds. T four. That's right,
- 32:03Speaker 1: Tier four. Iowa State and Colorado sit at the bottom right.
- 32:08Speaker 1: Matt Campbell left ames for Penn State. Fifty five players
- 32:12Speaker 1: roughly fifty five, I don't know if that's the exact number,
- 32:14Speaker 1: but they hit the portal behind him. There's almost no
- 32:17Speaker 1: returning offensive production. Only five defenders who logged even over
- 32:20Speaker 1: one hundred snaps. Jalen Rayner and Zane Flord's are battling
- 32:24Speaker 1: a quarterback rainer with the edge and production am mobility.
- 32:26Speaker 1: Of course, at Arkansas State, Rogers and Bobbitt are legitimately
- 32:30Speaker 1: capable coaches. They've done good things in Iowa State does
- 32:33Speaker 1: have one of the easier schedules in the league, which
- 32:35Speaker 1: could keep them in the bowl. Conversation, but this isn't
- 32:40Speaker 1: a reload in Iowa State. This is close to a
- 32:43Speaker 1: teardown and fully rebuild it right. Colorado coming in off
- 32:48Speaker 1: of a three and nine season, and we got another
- 32:51Speaker 1: reset under Deion Sanders. Julian lewis freshman, you know, expected
- 32:56Speaker 1: to He's expected to do good things right and he
- 33:01Speaker 1: is gonna be the entire offense like They added a
- 33:04Speaker 1: strong group of portal receivers, Danny Scaudero among them, of
- 33:07Speaker 1: course from San Jose State, and Britnan Marion comes in
- 33:10Speaker 1: an offense coordinator should bring some creativity to that attack.
- 33:14Speaker 1: The defense is concerned. Twenty eight of Colorado's top thirty
- 33:16Speaker 1: one tacklers are gone. Let me repeat, twenty eight of
- 33:22Speaker 1: their top thirty one tacklers are gone. So Chris Marv
- 33:26Speaker 1: is there. He's trying to build something functional with zero continuity.
- 33:29Speaker 1: And this is the third or fourth major rostery set
- 33:32Speaker 1: of the Dean era. Like there's individual talent on this roster,
- 33:35Speaker 1: there's very little evidence yet that it fits together. Iowa
- 33:39Speaker 1: State has the more trustworthy developmental staff, Colorado has got
- 33:43Speaker 1: the more explosive collection of individual athletes. Both need a
- 33:48Speaker 1: boatload of newcomers to gell immediately. I have no idea
- 33:53Speaker 1: what that's going to look like. Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more.
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- 34:22Speaker 1: So what is the biggest strength of this league, right,
- 34:26Speaker 1: it's got a legitimate national title threat. Texas Tech isn't
- 34:29Speaker 1: in the playoff conversation just because somebody from the Big
- 34:32Speaker 1: twelve has to make the field. They project as a
- 34:35Speaker 1: top ten offense and a top ten defense with an
- 34:39Speaker 1: elite backfield rotation, an experience line, disruptive portal editions on defense,
- 34:43Speaker 1: and a schedule with almost no obvious land mines until
- 34:47Speaker 1: deeper end of the year. Like the quarterback situation lures
- 34:50Speaker 1: that certainty a bit, but the roster is still good
- 34:52Speaker 1: enough to hang nationally. The second strength is quarterback depth.
- 34:56Speaker 1: You got Bagmeier, Dan Pierre, Fafito, Wegman Johnson. That's a
- 35:01Speaker 1: legit upper class mess to maker. I think could fit
- 35:04Speaker 1: in there, Barnett, Craig Lagway Like that gives you a
- 35:08Speaker 1: fascinating transferred here this right underneath. And Hammon might be
- 35:12Speaker 1: the single most important wildcard in all of college football,
- 35:14Speaker 1: given that he is stepping into the program with the
- 35:16Speaker 1: clearest title expectations in the whole country. The running backs
- 35:20Speaker 1: are pretty outstanding too. BYU has got LJ. Martin. Tech
- 35:23Speaker 1: of course has Dicky Williams and Joyner. Utah has got Parker.
- 35:28Speaker 1: Oklahoma State has got Hawkins. Yeah, West Virginia's got Cook,
- 35:33Speaker 1: Houston's got Hughes, Kansas State has got Joe Jackson. Like,
- 35:37Speaker 1: this is not a league where everybody's just chucking at
- 35:40Speaker 1: fifty times a game. Several contenders can flat out control
- 35:42Speaker 1: the game on the ground and that's good coaching. Variety
- 35:45Speaker 1: is another real advantage. Joey McGuire built Texas Tech through recruiting,
- 35:49Speaker 1: through resources, and now it's of course aggressive roster acquisition.
- 35:54Speaker 1: Kaloney Sataki built a physical culture at BYU. Fritz has
- 35:58Speaker 1: got a long track record building pretty functional programs. Tyke
- 36:02Speaker 1: Snow's offense inside and out. Colin Klein understands quarterback development.
- 36:07Speaker 1: Morris understands tempo like cool Nikki, he understands misdirection and chaos.
- 36:13Speaker 1: What would be fun to watch him back with Kansas Maryan.
- 36:16Speaker 1: Of course, bringing the go go offense to Colorado every
- 36:18Speaker 1: single week, you are facing a completely different style of football,
- 36:21Speaker 1: which could make this a whole lot of fun. And
- 36:23Speaker 1: the portal work around the league has been impressive. Right
- 36:26Speaker 1: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Houston, Colorado, Kansas State, West Virginia,
- 36:31Speaker 1: UCF all made moves that could genuinely raise their ceiling
- 36:34Speaker 1: this year and now. The Big Twelve might not match
- 36:37Speaker 1: the SEC or the Big Ten and overall blue chip depth,
- 36:39Speaker 1: but it's got enough quarterbacks, got enough coaching creativity, enough
- 36:43Speaker 1: transfer talent to make almost every single game uncomfortable. Now,
- 36:47Speaker 1: as far as the weaknesses, to me, the biggest one
- 36:50Speaker 1: is schedule imbalance. The teams that are most likely to
- 36:54Speaker 1: actually challenge Texas Tech often just don't play them like
- 36:57Speaker 1: that sets up a bizarre championship race where avoiding the
- 37:01Speaker 1: best teams might matter more than beating them. And I
- 37:03Speaker 1: don't I mean it kind of sucks that Texas Tech
- 37:08Speaker 1: is not gonna play anybody other than Houston that could
- 37:11Speaker 1: really be a threat to them. Offensive line turnover is
- 37:14Speaker 1: another huge concern for this conference. Utah and Arizona State
- 37:18Speaker 1: are replacing all five starters. Kansas State, of course, leaning
- 37:21Speaker 1: heavily on transfers, Baylor is replacing four starters, Iowa State
- 37:26Speaker 1: is starting over from scratch. Colorado totally unproven up front,
- 37:29Speaker 1: Like a lot of teams have really good quarterbacks who
- 37:32Speaker 1: might not get any kind of protection. Like it's gonna
- 37:36Speaker 1: be tough defensive uncertainty. That's my number three. As far
- 37:40Speaker 1: as weaknesses, that's just as widespread, like Oklahoma State needs
- 37:44Speaker 1: to prove it and just get to average. Baylor's been
- 37:48Speaker 1: bad defensively for multiple years running. Colorado State is replacing
- 37:52Speaker 1: or sorry, Colorado is replacing nearly the entire unit. West
- 37:56Speaker 1: Virginia has got two experienced rotation guys back and that's it.
- 38:00Speaker 1: And TCU, you know, fixing a pass defense that was
- 38:04Speaker 1: just a complete and utter disaster. Since he of course,
- 38:07Speaker 1: is rebuilding both levels at once. The league is deep,
- 38:11Speaker 1: but it's also pretty fragile, like a lot of these
- 38:13Speaker 1: teams are one bad quarterback read or one with portal evaluation,
- 38:17Speaker 1: or one line injury away from dropping multiple tiers overnight.
- 38:21Speaker 1: That's not good. Regression is another weakness for this conference
- 38:29Speaker 1: at number four. Like a Houston won six to one
- 38:33Speaker 1: score games last year, Kansas Date lost five one score games.
- 38:38Speaker 1: Both of those could easily swing the other direction. Arizona
- 38:41Speaker 1: State won only one conference game by more than five points.
- 38:44Speaker 1: Like Baylor's got eight games projected within a single score
- 38:47Speaker 1: this year, Oklahoma State has got seven league games projected
- 38:50Speaker 1: within six point nine points. Realistically, this whole conference could
- 38:55Speaker 1: be decided by a handful of fourth quarters this year.
- 38:57Speaker 1: Let's talk about key players and units. Now, my top
- 39:01Speaker 1: quarterback in the league heading endo the season to me
- 39:04Speaker 1: is Bear Blockmeier best combination of proven ability, supporting cast
- 39:08Speaker 1: and overall stability. Now my number two. Dam Pierre might
- 39:12Speaker 1: be the most dangerous runner, Fefeeda might be the most
- 39:16Speaker 1: polished passer. Wigman might mean the most to his team's identity.
- 39:19Speaker 1: Johnson might have the highest ceiling automatically, mess to Maker
- 39:26Speaker 1: could put up the biggest rong numbers. But Bockmeyer's situation
- 39:29Speaker 1: is just the cleanest top to bottom. Dam Pierre is
- 39:32Speaker 1: number two. He can change the game even when the
- 39:34Speaker 1: blocking in front of him is not changing the game.
- 39:38Speaker 1: Like Hammon's impossible to rank with any confidence right now
- 39:44Speaker 1: because the entire Texas Tech offense hinges on how fast
- 39:47Speaker 1: he gets comfortable after that injury. Fafida belongs near the
- 39:50Speaker 1: top purely based on experience and decision making. Wigman and
- 39:57Speaker 1: Johnson and I hope I'm wondering if it's Wigman or Wigman.
- 40:00Speaker 1: I don't know how many times i've anyway. I just
- 40:04Speaker 1: looked at the Connor Wigman picture that's on here. That
- 40:09Speaker 1: ain't right, is it? Anyway, So after that then of
- 40:13Speaker 1: course mess to Maker Barnett and then Craig would be
- 40:16Speaker 1: my number nine. The most talented offense in the league,
- 40:18Speaker 1: I think is still Texas Tech. Quarterback picture is a
- 40:21Speaker 1: bit murky, but the overall personnel is the best in
- 40:23Speaker 1: the conference. Your outstanding backfield experience, line, upgraded receivers BYU
- 40:30Speaker 1: is the most stable offense among the challengers because Bogmeyer,
- 40:34Speaker 1: Martin and for veteran lineman give you such a strong
- 40:36Speaker 1: foundation to build on. Utah has got the most dangerous
- 40:39Speaker 1: quarterback running back combo in the league. But but that
- 40:43Speaker 1: offensive line is gonna determine everything about their season. Oklahoma State,
- 40:49Speaker 1: I've got them at four. Most explosive, Well, I think
- 40:55Speaker 1: it might be the most explosive new offense in the conference.
- 40:57Speaker 1: And obviously it's because we've already talked about this in
- 41:01Speaker 1: solving a system that brings in everybody from another school
- 41:04Speaker 1: where they already had a great offense. Right the people
- 41:07Speaker 1: running it have already run it together, they were just
- 41:08Speaker 1: somewhere else Houston. That's the offense that I could quietly like.
- 41:15Speaker 1: I think it could quietly become one of the more
- 41:17Speaker 1: complete units in this league. Like Wegman can throw it,
- 41:19Speaker 1: he can run it. Thomas is one of the better
- 41:21Speaker 1: receivers in the conference. Hughes that strengthens that run game.
- 41:25Speaker 1: What he did at Tulane was great. He went to Oregon,
- 41:28Speaker 1: he disappeared. Now he's back with Fritz. I think that's good.
- 41:31Speaker 1: The line adds at three all conference transfers Kansas State.
- 41:37Speaker 1: They got the atletic quarterback, they got the running back,
- 41:39Speaker 1: they got some experienced pass catchers. Klein's whole challenge is
- 41:43Speaker 1: getting a transfer built offensive line to jail. As far
- 41:47Speaker 1: as the best defenses, Texas Tech clearly number one, best
- 41:50Speaker 1: projected front six. They've got the deepest secondary. I mean
- 41:53Speaker 1: you got Homes, you got Trick, Roberts, Pollock, etc. I
- 41:59Speaker 1: mean it's a collection of disruptive players that nobody else
- 42:02Speaker 1: in this league can match. Byu is next, of course,
- 42:05Speaker 1: thanks to some veteran linebackers, a strong cornerback room, and
- 42:08Speaker 1: overall experience, pass rush has got to improve, but the
- 42:11Speaker 1: foundation is pretty sound there. Utah stays dangerous because Scaley
- 42:16Speaker 1: knows exactly what that defense is supposed to look like.
- 42:18Speaker 1: You know, you got Jonathan Hall Jackson, Beannie, They anchor
- 42:24Speaker 1: a strong back seven, though the line still needs to
- 42:27Speaker 1: be rebuilt. Arizona at number four, they should be solid
- 42:30Speaker 1: against the pass, and Gonzalez has enough talent to build
- 42:33Speaker 1: a top half unit. UCF's secondary might be one of
- 42:36Speaker 1: my favorite groups in this conference. Right they bring experience,
- 42:40Speaker 1: they've got versatility, the missing piece there is consistent pressure
- 42:43Speaker 1: up front. I'm just curious to see what they're going
- 42:46Speaker 1: to look like. A few more names to keep on
- 42:49Speaker 1: your radar for this season a'm Mario Thomas at Houston,
- 42:53Speaker 1: Wyatt Young at Oklahoma State, Amari Miller at Arizona State,
- 42:58Speaker 1: Jordan Dwyer at TCU, Braden Pegan at Utah, and Kenny
- 43:02Speaker 1: Johnson at Texas Tech. Now on defense, Wendell Gregory could
- 43:07Speaker 1: be a real difference maker at Kansas State. Cad Oo
- 43:11Speaker 1: Lave and Isaiah Glasker they lead the way at BYU.
- 43:15Speaker 1: Jamel Johnson critical for TCU. Gideon Lampron at Colorado is
- 43:21Speaker 1: one of the few established pieces on a completely rebuilt roster.
- 43:27Speaker 1: The talent the individual talent in this league is good
- 43:30Speaker 1: enough across the board. The question for most of these
- 43:33Speaker 1: teams is whether the units surrounding that talent stay healthy
- 43:36Speaker 1: and stay coherent. Let's talk schedule dynamics, and no section
- 43:40Speaker 1: in this preview matters more than this one, because the
- 43:42Speaker 1: Big twelve schedule is nowhere close to balance this year,
- 43:46Speaker 1: Arizona has got the hardest conference draw in my model,
- 43:50Speaker 1: Cincinnati second, Baylor's third, TCU fourth, Kansas fifth. On the
- 43:57Speaker 1: flip side, Texas Tech the easiest path of any contender
- 44:02Speaker 1: and really of any team, and it's ridiculous. Kansas State
- 44:06Speaker 1: is right behind them. UCF, Yeah, UCF, Utah and Oklahoma
- 44:15Speaker 1: State also drew pretty favorable schedules. Arizona schedule is almost
- 44:19Speaker 1: unfair when you actually look at it. They played the
- 44:22Speaker 1: other five teams in the projected top six. You got
- 44:24Speaker 1: road trips to BYU, Texas Tech, and Kansas State, and
- 44:28Speaker 1: then that late stretch like Texas Tech, TCU, Utah, Kansas
- 44:33Speaker 1: State and Arizona State. Good luck with that. Like it's
- 44:37Speaker 1: it's insane. They could still finish with less wins than
- 44:39Speaker 1: last year and actually be a better football team. Cincinnati's
- 44:42Speaker 1: draw might be worse because they've got fewer established strengths
- 44:45Speaker 1: to lean on. Six of the top seven projected teams,
- 44:48Speaker 1: a lot of the winnable games are actually on the road.
- 44:50Speaker 1: There is a real scenario where Cincinnati opens h to
- 44:53Speaker 1: six and conference play and then Baylor has the third
- 44:56Speaker 1: hardest draw they closed with BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston,
- 45:01Speaker 1: And that is just a miserable finishing kick for a
- 45:04Speaker 1: team that's breaking in a new quarterback and a mostly
- 45:07Speaker 1: new offense and yet another defensive coordinator. Right, TCU plays
- 45:11Speaker 1: all five of the top projected teams they finished with
- 45:13Speaker 1: four straight contenders in November. Kansas has five conference road games,
- 45:18Speaker 1: plus Missouri outside the league, plus an overseas game. Travel
- 45:23Speaker 1: alone is gonna wear on that team. But you flip
- 45:25Speaker 1: it and you look at Texas Tech. They got no BYU,
- 45:28Speaker 1: they got no Kansas State, they got no Utah, not
- 45:31Speaker 1: a single projected top ninety opponent on the non conference
- 45:34Speaker 1: late every road trip looks manageable. They only leave the
- 45:38Speaker 1: state of Texas once in the entire month of November,
- 45:40Speaker 1: like the schedule was built for a championship game appearance.
- 45:44Speaker 1: Kansas State gets nearly the same treatment. They avoid the
- 45:47Speaker 1: three teams most likely to give Texas Tech trouble. Their
- 45:50Speaker 1: underdogs in only one projected matchup all season, and that's
- 45:53Speaker 1: at TCU. UCF plays just one projected top five team
- 45:57Speaker 1: and they skip Texas Tech entirely draws five of the
- 46:00Speaker 1: bottom six, They avoid Tech, and they get BYU at home.
- 46:04Speaker 1: Like this ain't bad for this munch. Oklahoma State draws
- 46:08Speaker 1: the bottom five projected teams, they face only one top
- 46:10Speaker 1: six opponent. That's why I keep coming back to the
- 46:13Speaker 1: idea that the second place in this league might not
- 46:15Speaker 1: actually be the second best team. Right, the standings are
- 46:18Speaker 1: going to reward whoever drew the cleanest path. So let's
- 46:22Speaker 1: take a quick look at the calendar. Of course, the
- 46:24Speaker 1: first real conference desk comes September twelfth with Arizona at BYU.
- 46:29Speaker 1: Immediate read on whether BYU is really the safest challenger,
- 46:32Speaker 1: and it's the opening shot of Arizona's you know, brutal
- 46:36Speaker 1: leagues late just tough. September eighteenth, massive, massive spot Houston
- 46:41Speaker 1: at Texas Tech. That's on a Friday night, Houston's chance
- 46:45Speaker 1: to prove or to prove that it belongs in the
- 46:47Speaker 1: title conversation. October three, BYU at TCU. Tough early road
- 46:53Speaker 1: tests for Craig and for well, that wouldn't be a
- 46:56Speaker 1: road test for Craig. Excuse me, TCUs at home but
- 46:59Speaker 1: a real challenge for the Cougars there. October tenth, Houston
- 47:03Speaker 1: at Kansas State that can end up being a really
- 47:06Speaker 1: a championship eliminator. October seventeenth, Notre Dame at BYU, massive
- 47:12Speaker 1: opportunity for BYU to build a playoff resume. The following week,
- 47:15Speaker 1: you got Houston at Utah, like two teams both trying
- 47:19Speaker 1: to stay within shouting distance of Tech. Halloween Arizona at
- 47:23Speaker 1: Texas Tech probably the toughest game left on the Red
- 47:25Speaker 1: Raider schedule at that point. November seventh, this is this
- 47:31Speaker 1: is a lot of fun. Is Arizona really going to
- 47:33Speaker 1: be the toughest game on that schedule? I think? I
- 47:35Speaker 1: think Tech going to Oklahoma State could be interesting, But anyway,
- 47:39Speaker 1: the Holy War is on November seventh. Real chance that
- 47:42Speaker 1: game ends up deciding who finished the second in the league.
- 47:44Speaker 1: November fourteenth, of course, Texas Tech going to Oklahoma State.
- 47:48Speaker 1: Cowboys offense should be fully clicking by then, still water
- 47:51Speaker 1: gets allowed when the program is relevant. That same week
- 47:56Speaker 1: Utah at Arizona. Huge implications on that one, and then
- 48:02Speaker 1: TCU at Texas Tech closes out the regular season. That's
- 48:08Speaker 1: gonna be interesting. November twenty eighth. I'm interested late season
- 48:15Speaker 1: slate strongly favors the Red Raiders, like strongly, so I'm
- 48:20Speaker 1: excited about this. But woo, there's a but that schedules filed.
- 48:28Speaker 1: That conference schedule is so nuts. Hit that subscribe button
- 48:34Speaker 1: and make sure to like the video. And if you're
- 48:36Speaker 1: listening to the podcast, of course, make sure and visit
- 48:39Speaker 1: Winning Cures Everything on YouTube at YouTube dot com slash
- 48:42Speaker 1: Winning Cures Everything, so you don't miss any of our
- 48:45Speaker 1: college football coverage this season. All right, let's talk about
- 48:50Speaker 1: the championship race. My projected title game. I'm doing Texas
- 48:56Speaker 1: Tech against BYU. Like Tech has got the roster, the defense,
- 48:59Speaker 1: and they've got schedule. BYU has got the most stable
- 49:01Speaker 1: mix of quarterback play, running game, offensive line experience, defensive
- 49:06Speaker 1: maturity out of all the challengers in BYU dodges Tech
- 49:10Speaker 1: in the regular season, which actually helps both teams get
- 49:12Speaker 1: to Arlington without beating each other along the way. Now,
- 49:15Speaker 1: my first team out Kansas State. They might enter November
- 49:20Speaker 1: with a cleaner record than BYU given how friendly that
- 49:22Speaker 1: schedule is. But my hesitation is asking a first year
- 49:27Speaker 1: head coach in two transfer rebuilt lines to be championship
- 49:32Speaker 1: caliber right out of the gate. Now I've got Utah
- 49:35Speaker 1: right behind them. Schedule sets up pretty much every opportunity
- 49:39Speaker 1: in the world. I Utah and Kansas State are almost
- 49:45Speaker 1: the same for me. Great quarterbacks. I think I trust
- 49:49Speaker 1: the two first time head coaches, but I feel like
- 49:57Speaker 1: Kansas State has the easier schedule. I think that's the
- 50:02Speaker 1: I think that's my biggest thing there. Houston's got the
- 50:05Speaker 1: roster to stay in it, but that road schedule is
- 50:08Speaker 1: a big problem for me. Arizona and TCU both have
- 50:10Speaker 1: enough talent, but their schedules could eliminate them before the
- 50:14Speaker 1: way before, I mean early in November, they could be
- 50:17Speaker 1: out of this thing. And Oklahoma State is the team
- 50:19Speaker 1: that crashes the whole conversation if that defense can just
- 50:22Speaker 1: find some kind of footing. So my champion is going
- 50:27Speaker 1: to be Texas Tech. Even with Hammond stepping in for
- 50:29Speaker 1: the Soresby plan that everybody expected, Tech is still the
- 50:33Speaker 1: most complete team in this league. They got the best defense,
- 50:35Speaker 1: the best backfield, the deepest roster, schedule, et cetera. And
- 50:41Speaker 1: remember this team didn't sneak through twenty twenty five. They
- 50:43Speaker 1: just dominated everybody. Now the risk is pretty obvious, Hammond
- 50:47Speaker 1: being handed enormous expectations right out of the gate, and Tech,
- 50:50Speaker 1: of course replacing two nationally elite defenders with a market
- 50:54Speaker 1: that leaves zero room for a normal everyday upset. But
- 50:57Speaker 1: I'm still taking the Red Raiders to beat BYU and
- 51:00Speaker 1: win the Big twelve. High confidence that they get to
- 51:02Speaker 1: the championship game, slightly less confidence that they win it
- 51:05Speaker 1: out right, because one game title matchup can humblieve in
- 51:09Speaker 1: the best team in the country. All right, let's talk numbers.
- 51:15Speaker 1: Texas Tech plus one hundred to win the conference BYU
- 51:18Speaker 1: plus five fifty, Utah plus six fifty, Kansas State plus
- 51:22Speaker 1: thirteen hundred. Houston is plus sixteen hundred. Arizona and TCU
- 51:26Speaker 1: both plus two thousand. I don't trust Arizona State at
- 51:32Speaker 1: plus twenty two hundred. Oklahoma State at plus twenty seven
- 51:35Speaker 1: hundred is somewhat interesting. Everything beyond that is thirty five
- 51:39Speaker 1: hundred or worse or better, whatever whichever way you would
- 51:44Speaker 1: like to say it. Texas Tech is the right football pick,
- 51:48Speaker 1: and a rough betting price plus one hundred is out there.
- 51:52Speaker 1: I mean some places it is juiced at minus money,
- 51:57Speaker 1: So it's a rough betting price. It's not me fading
- 52:03Speaker 1: them on the field. I think they're the best team
- 52:04Speaker 1: in this league. But and even money, they got to
- 52:08Speaker 1: win the whole thing more than half the time just
- 52:12Speaker 1: to make the bet worthwhile. And that's a tough number
- 52:14Speaker 1: to stomach. With a new starting quarterback and a title
- 52:16Speaker 1: that still comes down to one game. There was a
- 52:21Speaker 1: at one point there was like a plus two hundred number.
- 52:23Speaker 1: I mean that value is long long gone, and at
- 52:27Speaker 1: one point it was, you know, minus one forty to
- 52:29Speaker 1: win the conference. Plus one hundred is all right, Arizona
- 52:34Speaker 1: State is the overvalued team here coming off eight wins. Yeah,
- 52:38Speaker 1: but I don't think the market is fully priced in
- 52:40Speaker 1: how much talent walked out the door. You know, the
- 52:42Speaker 1: quarterback gone, top receiver, leading rusher, off five lineman, like
- 52:47Speaker 1: tons of stuff. Most of the sack and tackle for
- 52:51Speaker 1: loss production on defense has gone to Like you have
- 52:55Speaker 1: four top five projected teams on the schedule, three of
- 52:57Speaker 1: them on the road, and you got nine straight game
- 53:00Speaker 1: after an early buy. Arizona State's going to be a
- 53:02Speaker 1: hard pass for me, Houston softer fade. You know, I
- 53:06Speaker 1: do like the roster, and I like the coaching staff.
- 53:09Speaker 1: I just don't love betting on a team that won
- 53:10Speaker 1: six to one score games last year run that same
- 53:12Speaker 1: trick while traveling to Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Utah.
- 53:17Speaker 1: I just don't see it. The best value on the
- 53:20Speaker 1: board if you were looking for a long shot for
- 53:22Speaker 1: Big twelve Championship bids, is going to be Kansas State
- 53:24Speaker 1: at plus thirteen hundred. Like they avoid Tech, they avoid BYU,
- 53:27Speaker 1: they avoid Utah. It's the second easiest schedule in my
- 53:29Speaker 1: whole model. Underdog in only one game, and they've got
- 53:32Speaker 1: a natural bounce back spot after dropping five to one
- 53:34Speaker 1: possession games a year ago. Like Kansas State doesn't need
- 53:37Speaker 1: to be the second best team in the league to
- 53:38Speaker 1: make Arlington. They just got a cash in on that schedule.
- 53:42Speaker 1: I think that that's the easiest way. The best longer
- 53:46Speaker 1: shot on the board is going to be Oklahoma State
- 53:48Speaker 1: plus twenty seven hundred, like built in continuity on offense,
- 53:52Speaker 1: bottom five schedule, and there's really only two games that
- 53:55Speaker 1: look overwhelming on paper. That's Oregon and Tech. Like the
- 53:58Speaker 1: catches is obvious, like genuinely don't know if the defense
- 54:01Speaker 1: can hold up, and that's why it stays a long
- 54:03Speaker 1: shot play and not a top of the card pick
- 54:06Speaker 1: U c F plus five thousand, Like, that's more of
- 54:10Speaker 1: a deeper kind of schedule based option if you want
- 54:14Speaker 1: to dig further down the board, like they upgraded that quarterback.
- 54:17Speaker 1: They've got a potentially excellent secondary. There's no Texas Tech late. Like,
- 54:23Speaker 1: I don't think the roster is quite ready to win
- 54:24Speaker 1: the whole league, but the path and the path and
- 54:28Speaker 1: some of that depth could certainly keep them relevant a
- 54:30Speaker 1: lot longer than the number suggests on win totals. So
- 54:35Speaker 1: my favorite is Kansas State over seven and a half.
- 54:37Speaker 1: Schedule backs it up close. Game results have room to normalize.
- 54:41Speaker 1: Excuse me, Klein and Johnson. That's a lot of quarterback
- 54:44Speaker 1: and coach. They can get to eight wins without being
- 54:46Speaker 1: a single one of the best three teams in the
- 54:47Speaker 1: conference because none of them are even on the schedule
- 54:51Speaker 1: favorite under Cincinnati under five and a half, second hardest
- 54:55Speaker 1: schedule in the league, six of the top seven projected teams,
- 54:59Speaker 1: a real great quarterback and a defense being rebuilt at
- 55:02Speaker 1: both levels simultaneously. Now the offensive line can keep them competitive.
- 55:07Speaker 1: It doesn't fix everything else that's uncertain. I would pass
- 55:11Speaker 1: on Texas Tech under ten and a half like there's
- 55:14Speaker 1: too much variance with the quarterback change. I would lean
- 55:19Speaker 1: on BYU over eight and a half. It's not a
- 55:23Speaker 1: not a top play for me, but I do like it.
- 55:28Speaker 1: Arizona State I would lean under. If you can find
- 55:32Speaker 1: a number round seven, six and a half, I probably
- 55:36Speaker 1: wouldn't touch that. I don't know. I trust trust Kenney Dellingham.
- 55:42Speaker 1: Lean over on Arizona State five and a half. Given
- 55:44Speaker 1: the schedule and that offensive continuity, I would lean over
- 55:47Speaker 1: on UCF. I mean five and a half, better quarterback,
- 55:52Speaker 1: strong secondary. Yeah, and then Colorado. There's been a bit
- 55:58Speaker 1: of a push after media days. People think that maybe
- 56:01Speaker 1: they could be all right, and the portal talent certainly helps.
- 56:06Speaker 1: But I look at that schedule, I look at them overall.
- 56:10Speaker 1: I am way less comfortable with Colorado going over four
- 56:15Speaker 1: and a half, so I would lean under on that one.
- 56:18Speaker 1: But yeah, my two biggest, my two strongest win total
- 56:21Speaker 1: positions Kansas State over seven and a half, Cincinnati under
- 56:24Speaker 1: five and a half. My best title value is going
- 56:27Speaker 1: to be Kansas State at plus thirteen hundred, my favorite
- 56:30Speaker 1: long shot Oklahoma State at plus twenty seven hundred, and
- 56:34Speaker 1: my safest overall football prediction is the Texas Tech wins
- 56:38Speaker 1: this conference, even if I'm not thrilled about the price
- 56:40Speaker 1: that it takes to get there. All right, final predictions.
- 56:45Speaker 1: My surprise team of the year is going to be
- 56:47Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. Like I get the skepticism. The team went
- 56:50Speaker 1: one to eleven last year. There was a whole lot
- 56:52Speaker 1: of hype about them initially and then it kind of
- 56:54Speaker 1: tailed off again. Think about what is actually happening in
- 56:58Speaker 1: Stillwater though, right This is a brand new group that's
- 57:01Speaker 1: learning to work together from scratch. The quarterback knows this offense.
- 57:05Speaker 1: The running back knows this offense. The top receivers know
- 57:07Speaker 1: this offense. Multiple offensive linemen know this offense. The head
- 57:11Speaker 1: coach brought the whole friggin' staff with him. This is
- 57:14Speaker 1: a functioning system that just got transplanted directly into a
- 57:18Speaker 1: program with real powerful resources behind it. And they do
- 57:22Speaker 1: actually have resources right now because they switched over as
- 57:26Speaker 1: soon as they got rid of Gundy. All of a sudden,
- 57:29Speaker 1: They're willing to fund things. It's amazing. And the schedule
- 57:33Speaker 1: hands them the bottom five projected teams in the league,
- 57:35Speaker 1: plus just one top six opponent all year. The five
- 57:38Speaker 1: and a half win total is really just the market
- 57:42Speaker 1: reacting to a one to eleven record and defensive question marks.
- 57:46Speaker 1: I don't think it's the whole picture. Like for this
- 57:48Speaker 1: to actually happen, the North Texas has, like the North
- 57:51Speaker 1: Texas production has to hold up against bigger, faster, Big
- 57:53Speaker 1: twelve defenses. I think they can do that. Both lines
- 57:57Speaker 1: have to survive, really the jump in competition. Skyler Cassidy,
- 58:02Speaker 1: he's got to get this defense to merely average. I
- 58:04Speaker 1: think they can do that. They've got to steal a
- 58:06Speaker 1: few close road games along the way. If all that clicks,
- 58:08Speaker 1: Oklahoma Stay can win eight or nine ball games, they
- 58:11Speaker 1: can walk into November with a real shot at Arlington.
- 58:14Speaker 1: But the five and a half, I think they go
- 58:18Speaker 1: over that. I think they get to a bowl game.
- 58:19Speaker 1: My disappointment team is Arizona State. They lost too much.
- 58:25Speaker 1: Like there's no established quarterback, top receiver is gone, leading
- 58:29Speaker 1: rusher's gone off, five starting linemen out of there, most
- 58:31Speaker 1: of the disruptive defensive production. Like they've got four of
- 58:35Speaker 1: the top five projected teams on the schedule. They played
- 58:38Speaker 1: Texas A and M in the non con They won
- 58:41Speaker 1: only one Big twelve game by more than five points.
- 58:44Speaker 1: Last year. That eight win season was not built on
- 58:46Speaker 1: being a dominant football team. It was a string of
- 58:49Speaker 1: type finishes. And yes, this is the team that beat
- 58:51Speaker 1: Texas Tech last year, but this ain't the same roster.
- 58:56Speaker 1: It's harder to replicate because this roster is completely flipped
- 58:59Speaker 1: over the floor. Here for this team is probably five
- 59:03Speaker 1: wins and no bowl game. As far as the backup
- 59:06Speaker 1: pick for disappointment, I mean, it's got to be Houston,
- 59:10Speaker 1: right if those one score results start swinging the wrong way.
- 59:13Speaker 1: They got a pretty tough schedule too. So here is
- 59:15Speaker 1: how it all shakes out from me. Championship game is
- 59:18Speaker 1: going to be Texas Tech, and BYU Tech is gonna
- 59:21Speaker 1: be my champion. The team I think has the best
- 59:23Speaker 1: shot at crashing the party is Kansas State. Oklahoma State.
- 59:26Speaker 1: Of course, my surprise team that I just talked about
- 59:28Speaker 1: my disappointment Arizona State. My favorite over is Kansas State
- 59:32Speaker 1: over seven and a half. My favorite under Cincinnati under
- 59:35Speaker 1: five and a half. My favorite long shot is Oklahoma
- 59:39Speaker 1: State at plus twenty seven hundred and my final word
- 59:42Speaker 1: on all of this is that Texas Tech has completely
- 59:45Speaker 1: changed this conference. The Big Twelve is not a league
- 59:48Speaker 1: anymore where all sixteen teams feel like they're rolling the
- 59:50Speaker 1: same paradise every Saturday. Tech has got the best roster,
- 59:54Speaker 1: they bought the best defense, they've got the cleanest schedule,
- 59:57Speaker 1: and they've carved out real tangible distance between themselves and
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: everybody else. I mean it is a canyon, like just
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: inside a canyon sized chasm between them and everybody else,
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: but everything underneath them. That's still the Big twelve that
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: we know. BYU has got the stability, Utah has got
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: the quarterback, Kansas State's got the schedule, Houston's got the
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: trenches right, Arizona's got experience, TCU's got a winning standard,
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's got chaos like strange road trips, some creative coaches,
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: some dangerous quarterbacks like and there's just enough parody to
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: ruin somebody's season every single weekend. And that is still
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: very much alive in this league. It just has to
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: climb a much bigger hill in Lubbock. Now. That is
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: gonna wrap things up for the Big Twelve today. Jump
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: in the comments, tell me what I got right, tell
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: me what I got wrong, Surprises I need to look
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: out for, etc. They don't forget to subscribe to the channel.
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: I'm gonna be here every single week throughout the season.
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: But with that said, let's get out of here. Take
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: care of yourself, take care of each other. God bless
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: college football, and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: review or comment, follow at Gary WCE on X, and
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: check out the web store.