Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 318 - 7/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 318 - 7/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 318 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:29
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:37
Happy Monday. We are getting right back into
0:40
the swing of things. Hope everyone had a fantastic
0:42
weekend. I had a great time.
0:44
It was busy, but went to to visit the parents out in Western
0:48
Mass as well as hang out with some some friends who had a baby
0:52
shower and a cookout. So, you know, summer's fully in
0:55
swing when every weekend you got something going on.
0:58
But either way, guys, it is kind of a weird week.
1:01
It is the All Star break week and Major League Baseball, this
1:04
is typically the slowest and most dead is a dead or deadest,
1:09
the most dead or deadest time of the year when it comes to sports
1:12
betting. And really kind of I look at the
1:13
All Star break as kind of a way to catch your breath.
1:17
Obviously we've been grinding baseball every single day since
1:20
opening day and having some pretty good success overall,
1:23
especially over the last, I would say week, month or so.
1:26
I think over the past month up around 9 units betting Major
1:29
League Baseball, which is good to see.
1:31
I kind of didn't want the the break to come because we were on
1:34
a on a pretty good groove there with MLB.
1:35
But anyway, the All Star break is a time to catch your breath.
1:38
It's a time to kind of just re energize your batteries and just
1:42
kind of get ready for the last calm before the storm before the
1:45
NFL season takes place. So I actually remember when I
1:50
used to work at Sports Insights, it was my first job in the
1:53
industry and I was where I basically learned sports betting
1:56
and learn the rules of the road and kind of acquired this, this
2:00
data-driven philosophy. But we would always get the All
2:03
Star break off. So you would always get like a
2:05
three or four day break. There's really not much going
2:07
on. So I was kind of think about
2:09
this as really the slowest group of days, slowest week here in
2:14
the year. But with that being said, hey,
2:16
you hear my voice, we're doing a podcast.
2:17
So that means we got to bet on something, right?
2:19
Well, I actually did find 2 bets for you guys tonight.
2:22
So we do have the Home Run Derby and I did find a specific bet.
2:27
I'm not gonna bet on who's gonna win over under home runs cuz I
2:31
feel like that's incredibly hard to cash at.
2:34
But I did find a prop bet that caught my eye.
2:37
In terms of having to do with the weather tonight in Atlanta.
2:42
Wind is blowing out. It's a hot, humid night as well
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as kind of a situation, almost like the hot dog eating contest,
2:48
where we can kind of look at all the different books and their
2:50
numbers and kind of play them off each other and find a really
2:53
good number here. So I have a Home Run Derby prop
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for you tonight. I don't know if Chris Berman
2:58
still does it, but back, back, back, back, back, back, back,
3:01
back, gone, home run. And I also have AWNBA bet.
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That's right, as I was scratching and clawed for
3:08
something to write about as I'm a sports betting analyst for
3:11
recent.com and said, oh, there's two WNBA games tonight and one
3:15
pretty much caught my eye and fit everything we look for.
3:18
So I have a WMWNBA play, I have a Home Run Derby prop bet, and
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of course you know, 3 bets, try to go 2 and one.
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Well, if we want a winning night tonight, we got to go 2 and O,
3:29
so at least go one and one, but we'll try to go 2 and O and
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maybe stack a a little bit of a profit here.
3:35
And the are really the not arguably, but the slowest week
3:39
of the year. So that's what we talking about
3:41
today, guys. And of course, we'll be finding
3:44
hopefully new creative ways to bet this week.
3:46
I'm also looking at the All Star game for tomorrow.
3:49
It's basically a pick em type game.
3:51
The total is 7 juiced up a little bit to the over.
3:54
We'll see if we can find something to bet on for tomorrow
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as well. But maybe this is the week where
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we kind of really lean into WNBA because there's two games
4:02
tonight, two games tomorrow, and then if you look on Wednesday,
4:05
there are five games. So if we can get some system
4:08
matches, let's not force it. But if it's jumping out to us,
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we're going to play it. So first.
4:13
But on the board for me, let's talk about the Home Run Derby
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now. Home Run Derby, to me, it's it's
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kind of something that I don't know, some people are like, oh,
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the Derby's not quite what it used to be.
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I remember the Josh Hamilton year where he went nuts, and
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obviously I remember I'm really dating myself.
4:29
But the greatest All Star game of all time, 1999 when Pedro
4:33
struck out, everyone who was on roids and Ted Williams came out
4:36
in the golf cart. There's also an incredible Home
4:39
Run Derby there over the Monster before the Monster seats.
4:42
But I'll kind of tell you this, guys, I really don't have an
4:46
edge on who's going to win this thing.
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Typically it's someone you don't really expect.
4:50
The chalk doesn't always win. Like right now.
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Cal Raleigh, the big dumper, he's the favorite plus 300.
4:56
O'Neill Cruz, second favorite, plus 330.
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James Wood was part of that big deal for Juan Soto, having a
5:03
great year for the Nats, plus 425.
5:05
Matt Olson, hometown guy for the Braves, plus 800.
5:08
Brent Rooker for the A's, plus 850.
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Byron Buxton of the Twins, plus 950.
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Jazz Chisholm plus 1100. Junior Caminero plus 1200.
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So I'm not going to bet on who's going to win again.
5:21
To me, I just don't find enough of an edge and I used to always
5:24
bet every year who's going to win?
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I would never win. I said, oh, I'm not going to
5:27
keep wasting my money just betting on the the winner.
5:31
You can also take finalists, you can do totals.
5:33
There's a lot of opportunities there.
5:35
I'm just going to say I wish you the best.
5:37
To me, these are very difficult to win, but I did find a bit of
5:40
an edge. And I think this is important
5:42
because when you're betting on sports, you know, you don't want
5:45
to bet something just because it's on TV.
5:47
You don't want to bet something just because you're bored and
5:49
you got nothing else to do. You want to bet on something
5:52
because you feel like you've created a specific list of
5:55
reasons that would again convince a jury to convict or
6:00
quit. You know, you got to have a
6:01
clear set of data-driven reasons to bet something.
6:04
Or ideally, you find an edge, which is technically an
6:07
advantage over the sports book. So I landed on one particular
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prop Bet, the distance of the longest home run hit by any
6:15
player today, or tonight I should say.
6:18
So this is notable to me for a few reasons #1 doesn't matter
6:22
who hits, it can be anybody #2 If we look at the number right
6:27
now at DraftKings, the longest home run of any player right now
6:31
is 479 1/2 feet. So 479.5.
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Now first thing I notice is that it's just over 479 1/2 / -, 120.
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The under is plus 100. So this reminds me a little bit
6:46
of the Hot dog contest where I remember it was Joey Chestnut 71
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1/2 under -120. So basically the first clue of
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the odds makers on the hot dog contest was the under getting
6:57
juiced under. This first clue to me from
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DraftKings is the over getting juiced over.
7:02
Then as a point of reference, I started looking at every other
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book. So I found that DraftKings is
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7/4/79 and 1/2 / - 120. I found Caesar's is 479 1/2 / -,
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115. But here's where it gets
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interesting. FanDuel is 480 1/2 / -, 112 bet.
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MGM is 480 1/2 -, 110. ESPN bet is 481 1/2.
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Now the under is -130 so you can plus one in the over.
7:34
But that is another clue to me. So DraftKings opens getting
7:38
juice to the over like the hot dog contest.
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Open juice to the under. Then every other book is higher
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than that, pretty much. Like again, Caesar's and
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DraftKings are both 479 1/2, but FanDuel and Betam Gem are 480
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1/2. ESPN bet is 481 1/2.
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Now, you may not, that may not mean much to you.
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Like, hey, what what's a, what's a, what's, you know, a foot
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basically, or a foot and a half. Again, it's 12 inches, 20.
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You know, I'm not saying technically what is it, but you
8:05
know, if a guy's going to crush a Homer, it might sail over that
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number and it may not even matter.
8:10
But that's an indication to me that if you are going to play
8:12
this over, which that's my back guys over 479 1/2 feet and I
8:16
have another angle here in a second that's telling me that
8:20
I'm getting a good number. The rest of the market is
8:22
actually more bullish on the distance being even longer.
8:27
My other angle here is the weather because if you don't
8:31
follow me, you should follow at Kevin Roth WX.
8:35
He is the basically sports betting weather guy for for roto
8:39
grinders and if you just search roto grinders, if you Google
8:42
roto grinders weather, there's a great tab.
8:44
I bookmark it. It's great for all sports
8:47
included, but he does a really good job of just staying on
8:50
track of the weather, looking at the radar, giving you a good
8:53
breakdown. It's obviously huge for
8:55
football. We're, you know, going to get
8:57
back to windy unders and all that pretty soon.
8:59
But he did have a write up for the Home Run Derby here for
9:02
tonight and let me just read to you the write up now.
9:04
The first thing you got to know is that he basically color codes
9:07
them green, yellow and red based on like, you know, great,
9:13
terrible or great, you know, average or terrible.
9:16
Well, tonight the weather color color is green.
9:20
So green is green is go. What does McConaughey say?
9:22
Green green lights to see a green light, you got to take a
9:25
man, but green lights good to go.
9:27
And here's his write up quote. Home Run Derby, a steamy night
9:31
in Atlanta with high humidity. Winds are also blowing out to
9:35
center lightly five mile per hour sustained up to 10 mile per
9:39
hour gusts. It's not the best weather I've
9:41
ever seen, but hot, humid and winds gently blowing out to
9:45
center is a boost to the bats and we should see some good
9:49
carry tonight for the Derby. Side note that there is a low
9:54
chance for a stray shower or storm.
9:57
But what's the most important thing that he just talked about
9:59
in his weather forecast for tonight?
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Most important thing to me is wind is blowing out to center.
10:05
It's hot, it's humid. And again, the kicker here the,
10:08
the coup de I did notice, you know, longest
10:33
home run, I believe it's Byron Buxton is the favorite O'Neill
10:37
Cruz is a guy who crushes them. But if you add those two things
10:41
together, guys like it was notable to me enough just from
10:43
the betting market again, the over 479 F being juiced up every
10:47
book even higher than that. But when I saw that weather
10:50
forecast again, it's not 20° blowing out to dead center, but
10:54
5 to 10 hot, humid. This is good hitting conditions
10:58
here for tonight. So you add it all up here, guys,
11:01
I'm shopping around. I already did shop around.
11:03
I got over 479 1/2 feet and I got it at Caesar's over -115
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save a little juice because DraftKings is 479 F over -120
11:14
And again, FanDuel bet MGM 480 1/2, ESPN bet 481 1/2.
11:19
So I feel like we're getting the best number and we are kind of
11:22
playing the books off each other.
11:24
We are uncovering kind of deductive reasoning comparing
11:28
the books. And this also reminds me two of
11:30
the of the home runner or the what was it hot dog contest.
11:34
Because remember all the books were like 71 1/2, but circa was
11:38
70 1/2. So like a sharp book was lower
11:41
than the rest. Whereas again, that kind of told
11:43
you liability under or maybe value under.
11:46
Well, here it seems to me values on the over.
11:49
So that's going to be my bet here for tonight in the Derby.
11:52
I don't care who it is. We need someone to hit a home
11:55
run 480 feet so we can hopefully cash this over 479 F at -115 at
12:01
Caesar's. Now I got a WNBA play for you.
12:05
And again, we don't talk a lot of WNBAI think we've made 2
12:08
plays this year, number one and one.
12:10
But the beauty of being a data-driven better is that you
12:14
don't have to watch the sports. You don't have to know every
12:17
player, you don't have to know insurance and outs of the
12:19
coaching and all the intricacies.
12:22
As long as you can read the market and understand what the
12:24
market is telling you, you have the ability to make a smart bet
12:28
that hopefully can cash for you. So I landed on a 10 O clock game
12:31
tonight, the Phoenix Mercury visiting the Golden State
12:35
Valkyries. Now you might have heard of the
12:37
Mercury. They had Britney Griner for a
12:39
while. I think she's on a different
12:40
team now, but the Golden State Valkyries, they're an expansion
12:43
team. They're brand new to the WNBA
12:45
and they're actually not that bad.
12:47
So let's breakdown this game like we would any other game.
12:50
So going into it, we got the Mercury having a good year, 14
12:52
and 6. They've won two straight.
12:55
They just beat the lynx, Minnesota Lynx 79 to 71.
12:58
They went out right as a 7 point home dog.
13:00
You know the valkyries again expansion team, but they're 10
13:03
and 10 this year. They did, however, lose 3 of
13:06
their last four. They lost to the aces one O 4 to
13:09
one O 2, but they did cover as a 5 point Rd. dog.
13:12
So where did this line open? Well, the opening number for
13:15
this game was not the Phoenix Mercury better record and hotter
13:19
as of late. No, it opened Golden State home
13:22
team, the expansion team as a 1 1/2 point home favorite right
13:26
off the bat. Again, that really speaks
13:28
volumes to me why, even though you're factoring in homecourt,
13:31
you know why is the team with the worst one one loss record
13:35
who's lost three of their last four favored over the team with
13:38
a better record who was one two straight.
13:40
That's just fishy, fishy, fishy in favor of the fishy side.
13:43
That doesn't make sense. It should be the favorite with
13:45
the Valkyries. Now, you guys know at this point
13:49
we're trying to find some line movement that either kind of
13:52
doesn't make sense or does make sense depending on how the way
13:55
way you look at it and the line movement is toward the fishy
13:58
side. That doesn't make sense because
14:00
we've now seen the Golden State Valkyries get bet up -1 1/2 up
14:04
to -2 1/2. So the Lions going toward the
14:06
Valkyries, even though they're quote UN quote the worst team in
14:10
this matchup. Now let's look at the bet splits
14:12
at DraftKings. The Valkyries are getting 58% of
14:15
spread bets, 65% of spread dollars at Circa Valkyries, 57%
14:21
of spread bets, 81% of spread dollars.
14:24
So both DraftKings and Circa are low bets, higher dollars in
14:28
favor of the Golden State Valkyries.
14:30
Now I know we haven't talked about, you know, basketball in
14:32
quite a while since you know, the NCAA tournament ended or
14:35
WNBA with the finals. But if you don't know, I like
14:41
the money line short favorites because I'm willing to pay a
14:44
little more juice and protect myself on the off chance that a
14:47
team wins the game but doesn't cover the number.
14:49
So when this game opened, valkyries -1 1/2.
14:52
The odds makers are telling you this could be a very, very close
14:54
game. So I would hate to lay now 2 1/2
14:58
the lines move in favor of the Valkyries.
15:00
Now the Valkyries win by one or two when I lose my bet.
15:02
So I'm playing Valkyries on the money line at -140.
15:06
Shop around. I believe that was Caesar's.
15:08
Some books are as high as -145 but draftking splits look good
15:12
on the money line. Only 50% of money line bets, but
15:15
64% of money line dollars in favor of Golden State.
15:19
I do have some system matches, believe it or not, in WNBA home
15:23
favorites with a line move in their favor.
15:25
Golden State would qualify here. Those teams are 41 and 1080
15:29
percent, 6% ROI this year. Favorite straight up off a loss
15:33
with a line move in their favor are 30 and seven straight up
15:36
this year, 81 percent, 13% ROI. That is pretty damn good.
15:43
And since the start of last year, we have favorite straight
15:48
up off a loss of the line move, 75 and 2178% with a 12% ROI.
15:53
So two really good systems lighting up on Golden State.
15:57
Golden State is 7 and three at home this year.
16:00
And maybe there's a bit of a revenge angle because the
16:03
Valkyries played the Mercury once prior this year.
16:05
They lost 86 to 77 on the road. So maybe that's something that
16:09
they, you know, are looking out for some revenge here for
16:12
tonight. But again, maybe you don't bet
16:14
WNBA. Maybe you love it, maybe you
16:16
don't. Maybe you're mad I don't talk
16:17
more WNBA. But my angle is, hey, baseball's
16:20
been pretty good to us. So why, you know, risk units
16:24
other where other places when baseball's been a money maker.
16:27
But hey, it's a it's a it's a slow, quiet week.
16:30
And you know, hey, this line's screaming at me with the
16:33
Valkyries with a pretty sharp, sharp line move.
16:35
So I'm on the Golden State Valkyries, I got a -140 on the
16:38
money line, I believe. Again, that was Caesar's so
16:42
longest Homer tonight in the Derby, over 479 1/2.
16:46
And Valkyries hopefully to win the damn game -140 on the money
16:50
line. So that about does it for
16:53
episode 317 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
16:57
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
16:59
where we of course wrap things up and start first by saying
17:02
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
17:04
out of your day, out of your busy lives and the dog days of
17:06
summer. I know maybe betting isn't quite
17:09
as popular as other times of the year like when football gets
17:11
back, but the fact you guys keep grinding baseball with me and go
17:15
through these dog days together, it really means a lot.
17:18
So thank you for tuning in. If you did want to give this pod
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a five star review on Spotify or iTunes, I would really
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appreciate that if you want to click the follow button that way
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you get alerted as soon as the new pod drops each day or
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recommend the pod to a friend. I would also very much
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appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
17:36
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
17:39
betting games based on the numbers, the line movement, the
17:42
splits, the system matches, betting games with our head and
17:44
not our heart. The style of betting has
17:46
appealed to you. You want to learn more about
17:48
data-driven betting or you know someone in your life who could
17:51
use some data-driven tips. I'd love for you guys to go to
17:54
Amazon.com and then type in the NFL.
17:57
Sorry, I just I just jumped to the gun type in the everything
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I'm just so excited about my new book, which is coming out now in
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Now while you're still on Amazon.com getting the
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Guys, we are officially less than a month away.
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August 12th, baby, if you'd like to pre-order my new book and get
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a leg up and get prepared for the NFL season and support the
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team, I would love for you guys to pre-order a copy on
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Amazon.com and make me happy, make my publisher Triumph Books
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very happy. And actually just got my box of
18:54
books and I gave them to my mom and dad and my sister over the
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weekend. So it was a pretty cool moment
19:00
for the family. Pick one up or both and bring
19:04
them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you and buy a
19:06
beer or ginger ale or truly and we'll sweat some some Derby and
19:10
some WNBA together tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
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and Juice Reel yet? Well, you better if you haven't
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because they're great tools to add to your data-driven sports
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So many great features with the Juice Reel app.
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First off, if you enjoy this pod, it's free.
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Good, good, good, good meal out at the restaurant.
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You tip your your server bartender treats you well, gets
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Hey, you do you look to tip them as well.
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I got to figure out a way to, you know, usually I can, you
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know, like just explain these last few things.
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The housekeeping at the end of the pod.
21:36
I can like literally close my eyes, do it in my sleep.
21:38
But I got to find a way to to now mention the new all systems
21:41
go merch store because unveiled it last week.
21:45
I'm seeing you guys buy some some swag, which is really
21:49
awesome because I want to see people all across the country at
21:52
different books wearing a fade the public sweatshirt or a
21:55
reverse line move or contrarian bet or, you know, don't parlay
22:00
sweatshirt, but it's all available in the new all systems
22:03
go merch store. You can find the link inside the
22:07
body of each podcast. I've been putting it in there.
22:10
You can also go to the all systems go Twitter page and
22:14
there's a pin tweet getting you right to the the merch store.
22:18
So I'd love for you guys to support the pod.
22:20
I think they're pretty cool shirts because they'll say the
22:22
tag phrase on the front, like reverse line movement or
22:24
whatever. Then on the back you got the
22:25
logo for the pot, which is pretty cool if you ask me.
22:29
But that about does it for today's podcast.
22:31
Again, trying to make chicken salad out of chicken.
22:33
You know what? Because it's kind of a weird
22:36
quiet week, but two bets tonight that I think we made a pretty
22:38
good case for. So if we can get at least one
22:41
and get hopefully 2, that would be even better.
22:44
But as always, guys leave you a couple things, whether I see you
22:46
at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
22:49
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
22:52
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
22:54
Casino or MGM Springfield. Of course, in my neck of the
22:58
woods in Western Mass or in the at the Nash where I where I'm
23:02
not too far from right now, we're out in the desert where
23:05
the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
23:07
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
23:10
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
23:13
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
23:15
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me,
23:18
hopefully show me a Derby, longest Homer, longest Dong
23:22
ticket and hopefully Valkyrie's ticket and guess what?
23:25
First one's on me, next one's on you, and we'll sweat the Derby
23:28
and WNBA here together tonight. So as always, guys, whether
23:32
we're coming off a great day, a terrible day, somewhere in
23:35
between grinding, hot, cold, we just got to stick to the model,
23:38
stick to the blueprint. There's going to be highs,
23:40
there's going to be lows, and we're not going to win every
23:42
bet. We never will, but we always
23:44
strive to win every bet. That's the challenge of sports
23:47
betting. But I can tell you one thing, no
23:50
such thing as a locker guarantee and betting.
23:52
But I can tell you that if we stick to this model, making bets
23:55
with our head and not our heart, making bets that check off the
23:58
boxes against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
24:01
bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
24:03
If we can do that long term, I'm pretty confident we're going to
24:06
be successful sports bettors. So have a great Monday night
24:09
everybody. Let's get some some long homers
24:13
and go Valkyries. And of course, we'll be right
24:15
back at it tomorrow talking probably an All Star game bet,
24:18
maybe WNBA and I got some other ideas.
24:21
Maybe I'll surprise you tomorrow.
24:22
This is always the week where I got to get creative on the pod
24:25
because again, look, unfortunately we don't have a
24:29
huge slate of MLB, which I already missed right now.
24:32
But hey, we'll be right back at it when it comes back on Friday.
24:35
But good luck everyone. Enjoy your Monday night and I
24:38
will see you tomorrow for episode 319 of the All Systems
24:41
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
24:44
Good luck everybody and let's have a good night.