Latest / The Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast / MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? | How the Chargers Can Stun Josh Allen & The Bills

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MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? | How the Chargers Can Stun Josh Allen & The Bills · The Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast

0:10
Yes, yes, yes, yes, we are putting the Raiders
0:14
game behind us and we now look to week three's
0:20
matchup of the Chargers at the Bills, Josh Allen's
0:25
house. Alistair, my first question to you before
0:29
we even get into what the Bills did to the Lions
0:32
is are the Bills the AFCs? best team and are
0:37
they Super Bowl favorites? What say you after
0:40
looking at some of the tape? Then we'll then
0:43
we'll get into some of the detail. Well the answer
0:46
is we'll find out after this week. The Bills
0:49
Jack look unstoppable to me. At least offensively
0:53
they are a powerhouse. They're a juggernaut offensively.
0:58
I have not seen Josh Allen play this well before.
1:02
through two games. He is doing all the things
1:05
we want to see Justin Herbert doing, which is
1:09
throwing on time and then making just some outrageous
1:12
throws where things break down around him. And
1:15
we know he's now probably the best rushing quarterback
1:18
in the history of the NFL, or at least up there.
1:21
He keeps climbing the rankings on most rushing
1:23
touchdown scores. So my quick snap response is
1:27
their formula is... well suited to going really,
1:32
really far in the 2026 NFL season. It's interesting,
1:36
right? Because I wouldn't say it's, I'd say it's
1:38
the offensive formula, right? Because, you know,
1:41
they beat the lions last week, 41 -31 shootout,
1:44
but over the two weeks, Buffalo have scored 77,
1:47
the opponents have scored 62. So at the moment,
1:50
the Bills are winning their shootout games. They're
1:52
not necessarily suffocating teams with their
1:54
defense. As you said, Alan looks incredible,
1:57
40 of 60, 582 yards, five passing touchdowns
2:00
with another four on the ground. No interceptions
2:03
added there. James Cook looks really good carrying
2:06
5 .6 per carry. He's at 192 yards through two
2:11
games. And I think what Bill's fans will be very
2:13
happy about is the emergence. Finally, perhaps
2:16
of Dalton Kincaid, their tight end. He's got
2:19
12 catches on 14 targets for 225 yards and a
2:24
touchdown with a 91 PFF receiving grade. He might
2:29
be. pushing my boy from the Cardinals, uh, for
2:32
the best time in the league. No, that's, that's
2:34
too early. Trey McBride baby. I love you. Uh,
2:37
defensively, you know, opposing quarterbacks
2:41
have fallen six touchdowns and their PFF coverage
2:43
grades on the backend. Don't look too good. Um,
2:46
and their pass rush, seven official sacks with
2:48
19 quarterback hits, um, PFF credits, their defense
2:53
if line with 49 total. pressures. So it's an
2:58
interesting kind of matchup that we have here.
3:01
We're going to try and make it as interesting
3:03
as we can, Alistair. When you're thinking about
3:08
this offense, which we've just given plaudits
3:11
to, how do you think Los Angeles should begin
3:15
to defend or try and stop the venerable Josh
3:20
Allen? The venerated Josh Allen. Look, it's pointless
3:25
trying to stop his legs. Good luck on third and
3:28
fourth and one with the tushbush. It's not happening.
3:30
I think what the charges really need to do here
3:34
is say we are going to make you make you beat
3:38
us slowly. We're not going to allow you to hit
3:41
your explosive passes to DJ Moore if he's healthy.
3:44
And at the time of recording, we're not sure.
3:46
Kalera Shakir, Keon Coleman, old faithful Josh
3:49
Palmer. Josh managed to have a nice score. So
3:52
I don't mind this idea of you maybe rush five,
3:56
but play zone coverage underneath. The Lions
3:59
got cooked trying to play man coverage against
4:02
Josh Allen and so did the Texans because when
4:04
you play man coverage You're chasing your opponent
4:07
down the field and your back is to the quarterback
4:08
So Josh Allen's gonna take off with his legs
4:11
and that's the last thing we can afford in this
4:13
game Yeah, and you know treating 13 personnel
4:18
as a passing formation as well You know matching
4:23
You know, too heavily creates Kincaid on linebacker
4:27
football. And that's not what we want. Our linebackers
4:30
are nowhere near as good enough to cover Kincaid
4:32
in the form that he's in. Um, but I think, you
4:35
know, for me, when it comes to priorities, when
4:37
we look, uh, at. at maybe a very, very basic
4:40
defensive setup is remove from what I could understand
4:44
is that Kincaid's just had free access over the
4:47
middle and in that intermediate middle, exactly
4:49
where Trey McBride absolutely ate when we played
4:54
against the Cardinals. So I'd be really looking
4:56
for Chris O 'Leary to come with a far better
4:59
plan for an elite tight end. That would be my
5:03
sort of priority order. I need to be able to
5:05
see from O 'Leary this early in his career. I've
5:07
been beaten by exceptional tight end before.
5:10
I'm not going to get beaten, but like that again,
5:11
cause we come up against a few in this next run.
5:14
I think also like, let's just, let's just, let's
5:18
just make cook beat us. Put in, give the, give
5:21
the ball to hand, get him out. Our run defense
5:23
might be hurt by losing Tomlinson, but make cook
5:25
beat us. As we always say, you, you sort of alluded
5:28
to like rush Alan with a bit of a cage, make
5:32
sure he stays inside the closing pocket. and
5:35
you know what live with outside the hashes contested
5:38
throws make Josh Allen's arm beat you because
5:41
I think it's good but I think it's it's good
5:44
it's great when he matches it with his legs so
5:48
that's kind of my sort of priority order did
5:51
you have anything else to add there I would be
5:54
clogging up the middle of the field, exactly
5:55
like you said. If you need to play some bracket,
5:57
whether it's Shakir or Kinkade, Kinkade started
6:00
like a house on fire. Like it's a little concerning
6:02
that I'm seeing Kinkade beat Mann up the same,
6:05
then I'm seeing find the soft spot in the zone,
6:08
in the red zone. I'm seeing them run zone schemes
6:12
and bootlegs, but then they're doing a lot of
6:14
their traditional... Buffalo duo schemes that
6:18
they did a lot of last year. They did it four
6:20
times in a row against the lions where they get
6:23
their 13 personnel. Like you said, they've got
6:25
Jackson Hawes, who's an excellent run blocker.
6:27
They've got Dawson Knox, who's a really good
6:29
run blocker. He's great too. They'll run it down
6:31
your throat, but I agree especially with you
6:34
saying this can be James Cook winning slowly
6:37
and beating us. Just stop the explosives and
6:40
make them hit those explosives outside the numbers.
6:43
I agree. Yeah. Yeah. And the thing is, you know,
6:48
what was fascinating when I watched the Lions
6:50
game, yes, they put up scores quickly, but I
6:53
think the decisive possession in that game was
6:56
actually them just going slowly for 15 plays.
7:00
And what that showed me is that, geez, this team
7:04
and this, these coaches, This new look Bills
7:08
kind of know what to do when they need to do
7:12
it. Um, we are used to seeing Josh Allen throw
7:16
risky, risky balls and take huge hits when he's
7:20
trying to get a first down. These guys feel just
7:22
a little bit different from past Bills teams.
7:26
So, um, yeah, really, really fascinating about
7:29
what we're going to do. But again, We were able
7:34
to, we were able to stop Genety. So let's, let's
7:38
hope we can stop cook. And again, yeah, let's
7:41
look for this answer with, with, with Kincaid.
7:44
And we were a chance to get some pressure in
7:45
this game, Jack, because like Dawkins on the
7:48
left is pretty good. Spencer Brown on the right
7:49
isn't. He's solid without being spectacular.
7:52
He almost allowed a sack fumble to, I know as
7:54
Aiden Hutchinson, but on the game's opening drive,
7:57
Josh Allen has been pressured quite a lot. I
8:00
think it's something around 40 % so far. So based
8:03
on how Mack and Tully and Mezador played last
8:05
week, there is a chance of getting a bit of pressure
8:07
on him rushing four and five rather than sending
8:09
blitzes from the second level. Yeah, like it.
8:12
Uh, let's move on to the Bill's defense. Now,
8:16
uh, Jim Leonard is coaching their three, four
8:19
language and you've got Rousseau and Chubb as
8:21
outside linebackers. So Alistair, you adroitly
8:24
said on our review show of the Raiders about
8:27
what constitutes a blitz from whether you've
8:29
got the three, four, and you've got the two edges.
8:31
You're sending five. Is that a blitz or not?
8:33
Um, I am interested if you can just enlighten
8:36
us. It seems like Leonard is living almost in
8:39
cover three, cover four and cover seven. six
8:41
is on the backend. They're hardly playing any
8:43
cover too. I think, um, you know, they're playing
8:46
at 11 .9 or 1212. It's, it seems to be this three
8:51
deep zone quarters, um, and sort of quarter quarter
8:54
half, which is a bit of a change from what they
8:56
were running under. Who was their last head coach?
8:58
I can't remember his name. Sean McDermott, Sean
9:01
McDermott, because you know, they're running
9:03
cover six over 20 % of the time, just over 20%.
9:06
Whereas last year they only ran cover six at
9:09
12 .3. So what do you see there in terms of Herbert's
9:13
eyes and what does he need to be doing? And what
9:16
do we need to be doing route wise to sort of,
9:19
um, I guess attack this backend. Yep. So McDermott
9:25
was a quarters merchant, so the Bills know how
9:29
to play quarters coverage a lot. What Leonard's
9:31
done a bit differently is more of the kind of
9:33
Fangio influence of quarter quarter half, as
9:36
you mentioned, where you kind of have quarters
9:38
to one side and cover two to the other. What
9:40
has been the big surprise is I assumed Leonard
9:43
would come in and bring some of his Denver Broncos
9:47
roots, which is playing a lot of cover one man,
9:49
some cover zero blitzing, and he's done none
9:52
of that. They're bottom eight in blitz rate,
9:54
I'm pretty sure. They're also running barely
9:58
any cover one. And I think that's because their
10:01
secondary aren't great at that. Max Hairston,
10:03
their cornerback, is better in off coverage.
10:06
What they are doing, for some reason, is allowing
10:09
Christian Benford to trail around receivers,
10:11
playing a bit more man. And through two games,
10:13
Nico Collins and Amon Ra St. Brown have both
10:16
absolutely torched him. He's allowed 128 yards
10:20
and three. touchdown passes. So I do think there
10:23
are some ways to attack this secondary, in particular
10:27
from the outside, but it's been interesting to
10:29
see Leonard kind of do things we weren't expecting,
10:32
which is more twists and stunts, cover three,
10:35
cover four, cover six, but less straight up man
10:38
coverage. I realized I didn't answer something
10:41
you said, which was how to attack it. Yes. McDaniel
10:45
is really good at beating these kinds of defenses.
10:49
Remember the week one, 2023 Brandon Staley game.
10:52
These are the types of coverages the Bills are
10:54
running and they tend to be susceptible to your
10:57
dagger concepts. Whatever you can do to get one
10:59
of those two post safeties to bite and then throw
11:03
over the top of their head. You might recall
11:06
Quentin Johnston's 80 yard touchdown in the preseason
11:09
against the Rams. They were playing cover six
11:12
on that play. So I don't mind Jack. We've got
11:14
a bit of a fighting chance. If one of our receivers
11:17
can learn how to catch between now and Sunday,
11:22
there is an opportunity to attack deep against
11:24
what is supposed to be a prevent defense. If
11:27
you're on time. Are they in that defense, that
11:30
prevent defense, because they've got two fairly
11:32
young outside cornerbacks in Davison, Igben Osen,
11:36
who at the moment is a PFF graded below 40. 18
11:40
targets, 11 catches, 128 and three TDs. And you've
11:44
also got Christian Benford, who is below 50 and
11:47
he's giving up some stuff as well. So let's see
11:51
if we can put some pressure on them with, with
11:53
QJ going deep. Um, and also it doesn't fill you
11:56
with help though. Like who would the people we're
11:58
sending deep Trey Harris has been, he's looked
12:00
slow. We need lad to get some kind of amazing
12:04
recuperative powers between now and Sunday. What
12:07
can he take Jack to, to heal up? Well, given
12:10
the charges history of injections into the rib
12:13
area and lungs area, let's not do anything. Don't
12:15
do it. Don't do it. Um, because we don't have,
12:19
I don't know, the future Jamar chase sitting
12:21
in the wings, uh, like we had when, uh, when
12:24
Tyra Taylor, uh, you know, had to puncture lung
12:26
for Justin Herbert. Uh, the other thing that
12:28
I'd like to see is that Justin Herbert, and I
12:31
know Mike McDaniel likes to get the ball out
12:35
quickly, but maybe just a little bit of patience.
12:39
You know, Leonard, from what I understand, wants
12:40
the quarterback to misread, um, a misread or
12:44
rotation or sort of hold the ball. I sort of
12:48
hope that Herbert sort of is patient, but takes
12:51
the option when he sees it and doesn't go, Oh,
12:55
no, no, which we saw a lot in that Raiders game.
12:57
That's what Leonard's defense wants you to do.
13:00
Take it, throw it. And let's see how we go. Um,
13:04
blitzing and pressure. Do we need to identify
13:07
any particular rushes? I mean, there's Rousseau,
13:09
there's Walker, there's Chubb. Uh, Michael Hoked
13:11
is there, Ed Oliver. God, that's a heck of a
13:14
five. He plays TJ Parker, the rookie. Yeah. I
13:19
cannot believe how well Greg Rousseau and Dion
13:21
Walker are playing. And if you're not familiar
13:23
with Dion's game, Jack, you will love this guy.
13:25
Cause he's, he's got a very unusual build. and
13:29
he's six seven he's a big boy six seven about
13:32
340 he played his last year at kentucky with
13:35
a partially broken back so he plays really high
13:38
he's actually not that great at stopping the
13:41
run but he's kind of like tier tart where he
13:43
has this swim move um and somehow actually moves
13:46
way better for a man of his size and he looks
13:49
like he looks like one of the best defensive
13:50
tackles in the league Three's first two games.
13:53
So be careful because he's going to put those
13:55
big mitts up and Herbert already has three battered
13:58
passes from two games. So that's got to be something
13:59
to look out for quick passes. As I said, Jack
14:02
and Greg Rousseau is going at, um, he's got a,
14:05
he's just over 30 % pass rush win rate. So he's
14:09
in rare, rare air there. Um, he's already got
14:11
16 pressures and four sacks through two games.
14:15
The guy's going against the Texans strip sack.
14:18
He's, he's taken that next leap. Always had the
14:21
potential. Yeah. And given that we don't have
14:25
our seeker, we're going to have Trevor Penning,
14:27
we're going to have Cole Strange, and we've got
14:29
a rookie at center. I am wondering if this is
14:33
a down walker, just a destroy game. You've forgotten
14:36
the plan. You've forgotten plan A Jack. Plan
14:39
A is that Trey Pipkins is healthy and plays left
14:42
guard. Plan B is Trevor Penning if Pipkins can't
14:47
go. So just get that right. That should be a
14:49
bit of extra comfort for you. Apologies, apologies,
14:53
apologies, apologies. Okay, let's look at some
14:57
defensive matchups and the charges priorities
14:59
really quickly. We've talked about a lot of them.
15:01
Is there anything that's sticking out to you
15:03
that maybe one or two matchups there that will
15:07
most likely decide the game? I'll just go across
15:10
the game in general. I mean, I think what I mentioned,
15:13
we need to get some pressure. On spencer brown
15:16
tear tart needs to get some pressure on a sirens
15:19
torrance or alec anderson at the guard spots
15:21
because i think i think they're a little bit
15:24
porous up front and we do have some players who
15:27
can exploit that. All of the other ones are so
15:30
obvious. I don't want Shakir to fly under the
15:35
radar because just like Trey Tucker had 110 yards
15:38
in the first half, he can just pop up and have
15:44
85 yards at the half. So whether it's Tahib or
15:47
Derwin, they've got to be careful in the slot.
15:50
What's my one is a sneaky one and that we, but
15:54
we, we think of when we think of our edge room
15:56
at the moment, we think of Mack and Tully setting
15:59
the edge. I just have this feeling this could
16:01
be a mezzodore game where his speed and his craziness
16:04
off the edge actually helps contain Josh Allen
16:07
a little bit. Tully and Mack are not the fastest.
16:11
So if Josh Allen does break out of the pocket,
16:14
you're probably not betting on them to be able
16:16
to chase him down, but you're kind of hoping
16:19
that maybe on a third down, Mezador might get
16:21
one or two sacks, be able to catch him just with
16:24
that determination that he shows. But realistically,
16:29
the only way that we're going to have a chance
16:32
in this game is if Tully and Mack set the edge
16:35
and a hard edge and contain the pocket. For me
16:39
that stopping this offense kind of rests on the
16:43
edge group, maintaining that pocket presence
16:46
and the, and I have faith in the interior defensive
16:49
line to make sure those A and B gaps don't open
16:51
up. So Josh Allen just goes. Thank you very much.
16:54
10 yards. So, uh, I think where the game is going
16:58
to be decided for us at least is going to be
17:01
how well our defensive front holds up. That's
17:05
going to go a long way to, uh, hopefully a victory
17:08
for the charges. Did you want to cover anything
17:12
else, Alistair, anything, what we sort of did
17:16
some research around, what the Buffalo fans are
17:18
writing about, or some sort of, or the fan mood
17:21
from Buffalo, anything caught your eye? No, like
17:25
it's a new stadium, so maybe it won't be firing
17:28
as much as it used to last year, but I think
17:31
there are three things that matter most in this
17:33
game, Jack. Offensively, I want us to get out
17:35
of 21 personnel or this obsession with having
17:38
Ingold on the field. Let's run more 11 with three
17:41
wide receivers or even 10 with four wide receivers.
17:43
I want to see us attack through the air. A bit
17:45
more spread offense. Even empty, empty backs
17:48
field would be nice. On defense, Josh Allen still
17:53
has the occasional brain fades. As well as he
17:56
is playing Jack, he basically threw the game
17:58
away against the Texans. He threw this 40 yard...
18:01
ball across his body deep down the field and
18:05
unfortunately Lasseter just lost sight of it
18:07
it fell harmlessly to the ground and he threw
18:08
a really bad red zone interception against the
18:12
Lions that was called back for a holding penalty
18:14
that he did not see so he he will give you these
18:17
one or two chances we need to take them we need
18:21
a bit of turnover variance and luck going our
18:23
way a Josh Allen fumble return for a touchdown
18:26
I think that's what we need to do and my third
18:28
thing Jack The Bills can score with any time
18:32
left. So your four -minute strategy before half
18:36
-time becomes very important. Jim, you've got
18:39
to decide how conservative do you want to get.
18:42
Maybe you just stay aggressive on offense and
18:44
try to score as many points as you can in this
18:46
game because the Bills can score from anywhere.
18:49
Who is controlling those decisions? Is it Mike
18:52
McDaniel or Harbaugh, do you think? Who's making
18:55
those calls? That's a really good one because
18:58
I'm sure the fourth down call is mainly Harbaugh,
19:02
maybe with some input from data guys, stuff like
19:05
tempo and how we want to run this drive. I reckon,
19:09
I don't reckon Harbaugh would necessarily be
19:12
talking about that stuff to Mike, to your comment
19:15
on the last show we did. He seems to be pretty
19:17
hands off and just say, you run this how you
19:20
want Mike McDaniel. If you want to run the ball
19:21
on second 15, have at it. Yeah. It's, it's, it's,
19:26
it's interesting because sometimes you see him
19:28
walking up and down the sideline and he's clearly
19:30
talking into his headset, but he kind of looks
19:32
slightly confused. Mind you, he sort of looks
19:34
like that a hundred percent of the time. Uh,
19:38
yes. I think for me in, in terms of, you know,
19:41
the three things that matter, we've talked a
19:42
lot about them, make Kincaid work, make cook,
19:46
beat you, keep Josh Allen in the pocket, force
19:48
him outside. And for the fans. And I'm going
19:52
to follow this advice myself, uh, is that we
19:56
just have to admit that Buffalo are going to
19:58
score and they could score very, very quickly.
20:01
Um, and you know what Mike McDaniel and Hubbard
20:04
know that as well, like know that they're probably
20:06
going to come out quick. So you've got to be
20:09
able to script something on, uh, on this and,
20:12
and, and the players, you've got to know that
20:14
if they win the toss, chances are that they're
20:17
going to go that if they win the toss, uh, sorry,
20:19
if they lose the toss and they receive. There's
20:22
every chance that they're going to score within
20:24
four minutes. Be calm. Don't change your script.
20:28
Be patient, but just know that we're going to
20:31
have to put points up to probably beat them.
20:32
We're going to have to put up more than 14, which
20:34
is what we've done the last couple of weeks or
20:35
16, whatever it was. I can't remember. I've,
20:38
I've completely blotted those out. Uh, Alistair,
20:40
anything else we want to finish? We're sort of
20:42
hitting that 20 minute mark. We try and keep
20:44
this short and sharp for you guys. So you've
20:46
got a little bit of things to think about before
20:48
we head into this game. Can we win? Can we win
20:52
Alistair? This game is so important, man. If
20:56
we believe in Harbaugh, this team will come out
20:59
on fire. We saw glimpses of it from the defense.
21:04
We didn't even talk about this on the show, but
21:05
you know, Dante Jackson's PBU with Mezador chasing
21:08
after him and Caldwell. I think the guys care,
21:11
but we're coming up against, we're coming up
21:13
against probably the best team in the NFL right
21:16
now. What I think gives us a fighting chance,
21:19
Jack. The bills going to be wearing the hideous
21:21
gray colored uniforms and per next gen stats
21:25
teams that look like shit play like shit. Ah,
21:30
that's the, that's the mantra you have for life,
21:32
don't you? I'm pretty sure that's why you always
21:34
say you don't like my dress, Jack. I do need
21:37
to upgrade. I've upgraded my charges kid, at
21:39
least. So you didn't answer my question, but
21:42
you didn't answer my question. Can we win this
21:44
game? They can win the game. We've got we've
21:47
got Justin Herbert and we've got Experienced
21:50
coaches and we've got guys who can can we can
21:53
win the game? But if you're asking me will we
21:55
win the game my prediction is we won't and that
21:58
this game will end up being bills 31 Charges
22:02
24. I think it will be a valiant effort. But
22:05
ultimately no dice and still 0 and 3 to start
22:09
the season There I am of the same I don't think
22:15
we're winning this game, but there are different
22:18
losses. I think there's a spectrum of losses
22:20
here. If we go down within a score, you know,
22:24
and maybe it could be a 38 to 34 or whatever
22:27
the, you know, the computations are like a high
22:30
game, like a high scoring game. Maybe we see
22:33
enough from the offense to go, Ooh, actually
22:35
there's some pretty good stuff going on here.
22:40
But if we. come out and it's 30 plus to under
22:44
20 and we lose by more than two scores we're
22:47
losing by 12 plus points the players look dejected
22:50
the games over sort of halfway through the second
22:52
quarter we're turning the ball over there are
22:55
penalties there are fumbles there are drops i
22:57
tell you what the halftime chat's going to be
23:00
pretty interesting if that's the way if it's
23:02
21 to 3 And that is not going to set us up for
23:07
Seattle particularly well. So I think we can
23:10
win, but will we win? No, I think it's going
23:13
to be, I'm going to say the exact same score
23:16
as you, mate. So 31 to 24, uh, cause, cause I
23:19
think that kind of hits their bets either way.
23:21
Yeah. Same as last week. Tell us what you think
23:23
in the comments. It's such a big game. It's a,
23:26
ah, it's an early window game for us to drive,
23:29
you know, flying across to the east of the country,
23:31
body clocks, all that kind of stuff. Oh, please
23:34
win. We need to have a victory pod for the brand
23:37
as much as anything. Come on charges. Or just,
23:40
or just a Pyrrhic victory, just something we
23:42
can take away. Just please give us something
23:44
to talk about. That's not the awful, the awful
23:48
stuff that's been the first two weeks. And let's
23:51
hope that, you know, we get through unscathed.
23:53
Anyway, thank you so much for joining us. Uh,
23:56
we really hope you're enjoying the the two show
23:59
format. Uh, please give us some feedback. We
24:01
always love to, um, you know, uh, listen to what
24:05
you have to say listeners. That's one of the
24:07
reasons why we're producing more content this
24:09
year is because a lot of you say one time's not
24:11
enough to you. Give us more, give us more hook
24:13
it to my veins. So, uh, we're very happy to do
24:16
it. Uh, hopefully we welcome Andy back sometime
24:18
soon and hopefully we see you all with some more
24:22
positive stuff to talk about. That's it. See
24:25
you Alistair. Go bolts. That's it for the Thunder
24:28
Down Under Charges Preview Podcast. He's got
24:58
Floyd turning, got it!