Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 139 - 10/11/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 139 - 10/11/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 139 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. The weekend is here guys, but we
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have a big Friday to get to in an even bigger weekend ahead.
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I got a lot to talk about today. Excited to breakdown some games
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with you guys. I have a 5 pack of sweats
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including a play on the biggest baseball game of the night.
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That's right, San Diego LA Dodgers pods winner take all do
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or die Game 5 and I got an angle here.
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Hopefully that will provide us a winner.
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Also college football, it's a big triple header in college
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football tonight and I got plays on three different games,
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including a couple sides a total.
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So we'll break down a bunch of those and then one NHL bet for
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you tonight. Looking for a team to hopefully
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bounce back after blowing a big lead in their opener.
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They're back at home. Hopefully they will get a win
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for us tonight and then we got to do a lot of prep for this
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weekend because it's another huge weekend in the betting
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market. I have a UFC biting system match
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for you that I cannot wait to share with you, including a
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fantastic low bets, higher dollars bet split as well as a
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big height advantage, including a guy who has not fought in over
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a year. I want to fade this guy and back
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this this other pointer who's got a good sharp line move and
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then also going to unveil our final card for football this
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weekend, including five NFL bets, four of which you probably
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already know, but I just added a big dog.
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Stay tuned for who that big dog is.
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And then also 6 college football bets.
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You probably know. I think four of them, but
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officially I've added two more which are right up my alley with
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some good sharp conference dog reverse line move.
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So a lot to get to on today's pod.
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Now before we dive in, 2 and 3 -, 1.18 units last night had a
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couple good hits with Geno Smith going way over his passing
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yardage. It took a while to cash late in
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the fourth quarter, but over 248 1/2 member Rhythm was predicting
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closer to 260. He was up over 300.
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Had a big hit there in the WNBA as well.
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The links in the Liberty went to overtime.
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Both got into the 90s, easily cashing our over 159 1/2.
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Those are our good hits and the ones that let us down.
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Seattle plus 3 1/2. I knew we were kind of in
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trouble there because some books ended up closing closer to four,
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so I felt like we're maybe on the wrong side of that one, even
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though we were in a contrarian divisional dog spot.
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Middle Tennessee State, man, what the hell happened last
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night with MTSU? Didn't even come close.
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Lost by what, 27 points? They were a dog getting 4 1/2,
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although again, some shops got up to five.
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I knew we were kind of in trouble.
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It's always funny when you you bet a game, the line moves in
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your direction, you get more excited, feeling like you made
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the right call. The line goes a little bit
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against you. You know you're in trouble.
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So unfortunately, MTSU couldn't get it done.
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And the one that was really frustrating to me, probably of
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all the plays last night, Detroit Red Wings.
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What is up with the Red Wings? Come on man, Detroit was at home
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playing a Pittsburgh Penguins team, second leg of a
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back-to-back, had a good sharp line move.
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They lose six to three. So that's all right.
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Hockey just started. Looks like we got of course, a
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long season, a big season ahead and I do have hopefully a get
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right spot for us tonight in the NHL.
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So 2 and 3 -, 1.18 units. Let's see if we can get it back
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today and steam into the weekend.
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Hopefully a big weekend ahead now before we dive in and get to
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our San Diego Padres, LA Dodgers, which will be the first
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bet that I want to talk about today.
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And then we'll talk again, college football, NHL and the
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big sweats for this weekend. I wanted to mention as always,
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an invitation to you if you're listening to join us this
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Sunday, the Rhythm Sunday Sweats live stream.
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It goes from 11:00 AM Eastern Time to noon.
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Myself and James Santora, we have a lot of fun.
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It's a live stream on Twitter, so just log on to Twitter.
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You'll see a pop up and it'll go live on the Twitter account.
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So you can go to my page at Josh under score insights or James
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Santora rhythm. But I'll tweet that out.
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And really we're just going to hang out for about an hour.
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Talk about sharp line moves. Talk about what's changed from
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now until Sunday. We'll get some good great rhythm
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edges as well as some player props.
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So usually I like to pick my player props a little bit closer
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to to game day. So hope you guys, if you're free
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or want to get some last minute insights, tune into that live
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stream 11:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday.
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Now let's get right into it because we got a lot to get to.
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Don't want to waste too much more time, but let's go to Major
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League Baseball because there's a lot of games tonight.
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Obviously it's a big college football night and we will talk
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NHL, but I want to start with Major League Baseball because
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it's a huge game here. Again, we've had some plays on
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throughout the series, but now it is do or die eight O 8:00 PM
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Eastern Time on Fox, the fathers and the Dodgers.
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So winner take all, let's give the pitching match up.
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I'll give you kind of my take on why I don't really want a part
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of the side and why I am going to play the total.
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So pitching match up here for tonight we have you Darvish, the
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righty going for the San Diego Padres.
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He's one and all this postseason, 1.29 ERA.
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His previous start against the Dodgers went very well, 7
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innings, only gave up one run. That was the game in LA when the
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San Diego Padres won 1:50. And he's given up two earned
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runs or less in four of his last five starts overall.
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So Darvish is pitching pretty well here now.
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On the other side will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
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Remember the guy they gave a ton of money to from Japan to come
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over to MLB? Was it a 200, three $100 million
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contract? But he is O&O with an ERA of 15
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in the postseason. A little bit deceiving.
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He only made one start. In that one start, the Dodgers
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won the game seven to five over San Diego.
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He only went three innings, though, and gave up five runs.
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However, in the regular season, he went seven and two with an
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ERA of three. So a couple good pitchers here
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on the bump, at least on paper. Now looking at the line, it's
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moved a little bit to the Dodgers.
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You know, we open this game around -135 -, 140 for LA.
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You're still now around -140 for Lai do see a couple shops closer
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to around -145 but that's really nothing too notable to me
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because if you look at the bet splits, it's basically 5050.
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And again, a little bit of an inching up here toward the
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Dodgers. Now you can make the case San
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Diego has value as a plus money dog in this spot.
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I will mention dogs this postseason are 12:00 and 11:00
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may not seem amazing, but 52% win rate on plus money dogs,
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you're up about 16% ROI. So if you want to go San Diego,
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I'm not going to argue with you. But to me with a 5050 bet split
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in a very, very heavily backed game tonight, there's no
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contrarian value and the line really hasn't moved too much
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aside for again, a few cents up toward the Dodgers.
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So what I'm going to do is focus on this total and I'm going to
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go under 8. Now I'm hoping for a lower
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scoring game here for a couple different reasons.
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One, we mentioned the starting pitchers, both pitchers,
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Yamamoto not as much in his opener, but Yamamoto has been
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pretty good overall. Darvish is pitching very well.
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You look at the total now, some shops did open at 7 1/2 and
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immediately got update. There were some eights that were
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down to 7 1/2 and that and then back up to 8.
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So it's kind of been bopping around, but pretty much every
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book now is at 8. Now what's audible to me is that
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you have a pretty good bet split and a contrarian opportunity to
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go under the under 8 now. Currently 62% of bets at
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DraftKings are going over. And I get it, the over is 4 and
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over this series. So if you played overs, you've
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won every single time. If you played unders, you've
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lost every time. So it's an easy bet for the
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public to say, hey, we got two really good line UPS.
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Feels like every other game one of these teams are scoring 8910
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runs, so it makes sense. But in that vein, the fact that
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you're getting 6560 two, 65% of bets on the over, if you look at
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the juice, all the juices liability under.
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So all these eights are 8 under -110 -, 115.
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I see an 8 under -117. So you're juicing up the under
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even though public's going over. And just the fact that it's an
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extremely heavily backed game. And I can be contrarian by
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taking that under, which is only getting 38% of bets, but nearly
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50% of dollars, a nice low bets, higher dollars bets split toward
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that under. The other angle for me would be
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the Game 5 winner take all SO1 system that I do love when it
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comes to playoff hockey and playoff basketball is Game 7
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unders. Now the thought process.
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It's a different sport, hockey or basketball.
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But I think the same theory applies a little bit in terms
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of, you know, it's do or die. There is no tomorrow.
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You know, are you going to be a little less of in terms of
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taking chances? Is it going to be a lower
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scoring game? Is it more conservative?
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You don't want to be the guy who makes that one mistake.
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So you've seen historically with NBA and NHL Game 7 unders do
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very well and I dialed it up for the NLDS and ALDS in my database
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since 2006, Game 5 unders are 12 and 860%.
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So that is a winning edge there toward the under.
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So with a not much of A line move slightly toward the
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Dodgers, but tickets are 5050. I'm going to bypass the side.
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I'm root for a lower scoring game.
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Couple good pitchers on the bump overs 4 and O hopefully some
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regression to the under tonight. Game 5 unders have performed
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well and we have a good bet split only around what did I say
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37% bets but nearly 50% dollars. So I'm going to root for a lower
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scoring game. Give me a 2 to one game.
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I'm hoping we get a lower scoring spot here.
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So I'm going to go Dodgers and Padres under 8 and I got under
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eight at -110 at FanDuel, But some shops are -115 at this
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point. So if you're playing the under,
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try to find the best number. But let's get a lower scoring
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game and a winner take all game five at Chavez Ravine.
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Now let's go over to some college football because it is a
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rare triple header here tonight in college football.
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And I got some bets for you. I'm going to be sweating
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tonight. So let's talk the first one,
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Northwestern and Maryland. This is 8:00 here tonight and
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I'm looking at taking the points with the dog with Northwestern.
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So going into this one, we have Northwestern 2:00 and 3:00 just
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got rolled by Indiana 41 to 24 didn't cover as a 13 point home
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dog. Maryland three and two, they're
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coming off a bye and they lost to Indiana as well. 4228 didn't
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cover as a 7 1/2 point Rd. dog. What are we seeing across the
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market here? Well, this game opened Maryland
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as a 10 point home favorite and the public is saying give me the
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Terps all day. Currently you are getting across
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the market 64% of bets laying the points of the Terps.
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Now, early on we saw this line go from Maryland -10 all the way
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up to -11 or even 11 1/2. And the 11 1/2, it seemed like
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that was the high watermark started to come back down to 11.
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And now I'm seeing the line get down to 10 1/2.
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So important thing to me is that we're seeing this late game Bay
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movement breaking back toward Northwestern.
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So again, big bets coming in when limits are raised on game
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day. Again, that movement is
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important to me because that's usually one of the biggest and
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most informed bets again to kind of show themselves.
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But all that late movement is breaking back toward
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Northwestern. Now Northwestern, I don't know
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if you can get 11 anymore, but you can get a 10 1/2.
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I'm hoping this even gets down to 10.
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It would be nice to get the hook and then get some CLV and have
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it close at 10. But they are getting that late
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buyback, they're very contrarian.
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They're only getting 36% of spread bets is a prime time game
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on FS1. So we're betting against the
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public. They're a conference dog, so
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built in familiarity and rivalry aspect, hopefully leveling that
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playing field, benefiting the team, getting points and good
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crawl to betting value. This is a double digit dog, 10
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1/2 with a hook. Total in this game is 45 1/2.
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So if you're amount of expected points scored, again, going to
12:15
be harder for that big favorite to cover that number.
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And then also I do have a system here.
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If you are a Friday night big dog, let me dial this up.
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If you are a road or sorry, if you're a road dog on Friday
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night, it's not the big dog, but just a road dog on Friday night.
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12 and three against the spread 80%.
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And if you guys remember, we went three and O last Friday.
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Remember, we had, who is it, Syracuse at UNLV, Michigan State
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at Oregon. I don't know if we played that
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or not. You might have taken the points.
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But I do remember who was it before?
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Was it Houston, TCU? I remember having a Good Friday.
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Anyway, maybe that was two Friday nights ago.
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But either way, Oh yeah, the Virginia Tech one.
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But either way, you have seen these Friday night dogs do very
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well. So add it all up, guys.
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Publix, Maryland lines coming back toward Northwestern.
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I'm going to take the Northwestern Wildcats at plus 10
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1/2. Next one for you, UNLV and Utah
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State 9:00 game tonight. UNLV comes in four and one just
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lost their first game of the year to Syracuse.
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That was the big game where we had the orange in the points.
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You look at Utah State one and four kind of going the other
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way. Lost four straight, got rolled
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by Boise 62 to 30. Didn't cover as a 28 point Rd.
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dog. So this line opened with UNLV as
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a 19 point Rd. favorite. And everyone's playing UNLV
13:39
pretty much, even though, again, it's a big number.
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But UNLV across the market is getting 70% of spread bets.
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Public just says, hey, this is going to be a blowout for the
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Rebels. Utah State's got no chance.
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However, even though 7 out of 10 bets are on UNLV.
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The line open -19 it did get up to 19 1/2, but a lot of those 19
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and a halfs are back down in 19. And I saw one book that was
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actually at 18 1/2. So lines coming back toward Utah
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State a little bit. I leaned a little bit on Utah
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State in the points, but I said to myself, you know what, this
14:10
over looks very appealing. So even though I leaned Utah
14:13
State, I don't love having a play on both the side and the
14:16
total. I know other people would
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disagree. If you have an edge, just play
14:19
it. This comes into a kind of a prep
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personal preference, I would say, and I would say in terms of
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how you want to sweat a game. So I said the overs more
14:28
appealing here and I'm going to take the over now.
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Why do I like the over? Well, it opened at 64 1/2.
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Very high number, extremely high number.
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It's up to 66 1/2, and some books are even up to 67.
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So it's very, very high. But what's important to me is
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that the public is kind of scared to play the over.
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It just seems like a high number sometimes.
14:49
You'll see this in baseball. Like always remember, like
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Clayton Kershaw games and his prime, The total will be 6 1/2.
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And it's like, oh, like he's a good pitcher, but 6 1/2 is
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really low. It might go over or like a Coors
15:00
Field one when the totals like 11 1/2 and public says, I know
15:03
it's Coors, but that's kind of a lot.
15:05
Let's go under. Public just looks at the number
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and makes a decision based on if it's low, go over.
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If it's high, go under. So right now the tickets for the
15:14
UNLV Utah State total are 5050, right down the middle.
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However, 76% of money is on the over and we've seen this total
15:23
tick up again 64 1/2 up to 66 1/2.
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I do have a system here Friday over Steam, so if we get Friday
15:31
games, pretty good sample size going back to about 2015 when
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the total ticks up at least three points big Steam.
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The over is 57% on Friday nights.
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That would match with this total, or I think it's at least
15:46
2 1/2 points. Yeah, but good bet split.
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And then also, if you look at UNLV, they're averaging 44
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points a game. Utah State's giving up 41 points
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a game. I think we can get some points
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here. And again, it's not like UNLV is
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at home and you get up big, take your foot off the gas.
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Hopefully, UNLV keep scoring. Utah State puts up a few on
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their own and maybe need garbage yards or garbage points.
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Late, but I just saw the 5050 bet split.
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But 76% money, good offense, bad defense, and this line's ticking
16:16
up. I'm going to take a shot on this
16:18
over guys. Give me UNLV, Utah State over 66
16:22
1/2 last one for you, Utah and Arizona State.
16:27
I am so annoyed. Cam rising, the great
16:29
quarterback for Utah every week. Will he play?
16:32
Will he not play again? It's just like so annoying.
16:35
However, even though he's questionable tonight, Utah comes
16:38
in four and one ranked 16th. They're coming off a bye.
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They did just lose their first game.
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It was to Arizona 23 to 10 as a 7 1/2 point home favorite.
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Arizona State, by the way, four and one as well.
16:49
They're having a pretty good year.
16:51
They just beat Kansas 3531 covering as a 2 1/2 point home
16:55
favorite. So what have we seen across the
16:56
market here? Well, this game open Utah listed
16:59
as a four point Rd. favorite and the public, they don't know if
17:03
Rising is going to play or not, but they are hammering Utah.
17:06
Utah is currently getting 74% of spread bets and that lopsided
17:10
support. We saw this line go from Utah -4
17:14
up to up to -5 1/2 or even -6. So I'm like OK, lines going to
17:19
Utah. Maybe that's because Rising is
17:20
playing. However, you're starting to see
17:23
some buyback now on Arizona State.
17:25
A lot of these sixes are now falling down to 5 1/2.
17:28
Tells me that maybe Rising won't play or maybe he will play in.
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Just wise guys are liking the value of a good Arizona State
17:35
team at home getting points. So I'm going to take Arizona
17:38
State. I like to buy back it.
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Now, here's the thing. Try to get the six.
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Do whatever you can to shop around.
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Maybe you want to wait it out a little bit.
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There are a bunch of shops that are -5 1/2 at -115 if you even
17:49
want to, you know, buy up Arizona to six.
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You could, I'm pretty confident you can shop around or it'll
17:55
naturally maybe tick up between now and kick off when everyone's
17:59
playing Utah. But do everything you can to
18:01
find the six on Arizona State. I was able to find that six at
18:04
-120 their number. What?
18:06
They're your number one contrarian play of the night.
18:08
So it's a 1030 game and it's on ESPN extremely heavily bad.
18:12
This is the, you know, late night at the bar.
18:14
It's on every TV and everyone's playing Utah kind of play.
18:17
So therefore, I want to be on the Sun Devils, but it's your
18:20
top contrarian play of the night.
18:21
They're only getting 26% of bets.
18:24
It's also a buy low unranked verse ranked.
18:28
Utah is ranked and you Arizona State is unranked.
18:31
So another classic buy low, sell high play and conference dog in
18:36
terms of a built in familiarity level in the playing field.
18:38
And then lastly, a dog who can score system match Arizona State
18:43
with Levitt. And if you've never seen this
18:45
running back, his name, I think it's scataboo.
18:47
This guy is like he reminds you like Mike Alstott.
18:49
He's like a a white guy running back and he's just a bowling
18:52
ball Guys tough. So never watch his offense.
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They can put up some points, 33 points a game.
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Therefore dog who can score, keep pace or backdoor cover.
19:01
So do everything you can. If you want to play, go
19:03
contrarian with me and go Arizona State.
19:05
Try to try to find that six. I'm on Arizona State at +6.
19:10
So Sun Devils +6 UNLV, Utah State over 66 1/2 and what did I
19:16
say? Northwestern, Northwestern at
19:19
plus 10 1/2. Now over to the NHL.
19:23
Let's get some revenge here. I still can't get over Detroit
19:26
losing last night. But anyway, Philly and
19:28
Vancouver, I'm going to take a shot on the Vancouver Canucks.
19:31
It's a late night game, 10:00 Vancouver is playing their
19:34
second game overall. Philly is playing their season
19:37
opener. And what note was notable to me
19:40
is a couple things here. I'm going to go Canucks now.
19:43
The first thing I notice is big steam on Vancouver.
19:46
Vancouver open this game as low as -160 -, 170.
19:50
I'm now seeing Vancouver as high as -180 -, 190.
19:54
Now I did see FanDuel still hanging right before the pod
19:58
started. I got -175 on Vancouver.
20:01
So the first thing I notice is just big steam toward Vancouver.
20:04
The other angle here that I like is kind of a bounce back spot
20:09
because if you notice, the first game, Vancouver lost to the
20:14
Calgary Flames. And they had a four to one lead
20:17
in that game. They blew the lead.
20:19
They ended up forcing overtime, but losing in overtime.
20:22
So to me, this is a spot where you're pissed off, You're
20:25
annoyed that you blew a lead at home in front of your home crowd
20:29
in your opener. Now, let's let's button things
20:31
up and let's get a win here tonight against the Philly team
20:34
that is, you know, toward the bottom of the league in terms
20:37
of, you know, like not win totals, but point totals,
20:40
projections. The other angle here for me
20:43
would be Vancouver was a great home team last year, 27, nine
20:46
and five and a much better offense.
20:49
Vancouver scored 279 goals last year, Philly only scored 235.
20:54
And the goaltending, it's going to be Ersan for Philly versus
20:57
Kevin Lakinen for Vancouver. But the big angle to me are is
21:01
the two factors, the big steam toward Vancouver, telling me
21:05
wise guys like Vancouver and then also the kind of revenge
21:08
spot after you blew that, had a bad performance blowing that
21:11
lead in game one. And we don't know where we're
21:14
getting it from. Philly, it's your opener, it's
21:15
on the road. It's, you know, cross country,
21:17
it's in in Canada. This reminds me a little bit of
21:20
the Bruins, where the Bruins had a bad loss opening night against
21:23
Florida, came home and got a big win last night against the the
21:26
Canadian. So I'm going to play Vancouver.
21:29
Guys, I got -175 again, you're closer to -180 now even -185
21:34
with the Canucks. Now let's look toward the
21:37
weekend. We got a lot going on this
21:39
weekend. And I want to start off with
21:41
biting a little bit of UFC. Now, if you are new to UFC, if
21:46
you're listening to this pod, you probably aren't new to UFC
21:50
because we've been playing UFC since the very beginning.
21:53
But I have a model that I like to employ with UFC.
21:58
Younger, taller, longer reach line move and bet splits in your
22:01
favor. So what I my process is I don't
22:04
even look at the the fighters and their names.
22:06
The first thing I look at is when I get the bet splits for my
22:10
buddy John Ewing every Friday morning, I go right to the
22:13
splits and I look for low bets, higher dollars.
22:16
So I want ideally less than half the tickets, way more than half
22:20
the money. Then it's almost like, you know,
22:22
a lot of times you read from left to right and the bet splits
22:26
page, I read it from right to left.
22:28
So you start with the bet splits, Then you look at the
22:31
line move. You want the line to move in
22:32
favor of the low bets, higher dollars bet split.
22:35
And then you say, OK, if we match, then we see OK, you know,
22:39
Vanna White, you know, hit the OR pull back the curtain and
22:43
let's see who The Who the person is that we're going to bet on.
22:45
So without further ado, I stumbled upon one pointer that
22:49
checked off all the boxes. And he is Jonathan Pierce, not
22:54
Paul Pierce Pierce. Jonathan Pierce like you
22:58
remember if you're a Red Sox fan, Steve Pierce who had a
23:00
couple big homers in the 2018 World Series.
23:04
P/E ARCE. So what?
23:06
What do I like about Jonathan Pierce?
23:08
Let's start off with the bet split.
23:09
Jonathan Pierce is only getting 27% of tickets, but 62% of
23:15
dollars. So he's only getting 1/4 of
23:17
tickets, but nearly 2/3 of money tells me that it's a fade.
23:21
The trendy dog public is on Sabatini, his opponent.
23:25
Yet all the big money is in favor of Pierce.
23:27
So I love the the bets. But to start, then I look at the
23:31
line move. Pierce opened as low as -135
23:35
He's up to as high as -190 across the market.
23:38
So a big line move in his favor. Flip it the other way.
23:41
Sabatini is getting 73% of bets, but the line is not going in his
23:46
favor. It's going toward the contrarian
23:48
Pierce only getting 1/4 of bets. So we got low bets, higher
23:52
dollars line move Pierce. Now we dig in a little deeper.
23:55
Pierce is 32 years old. His opponent Sabatini is 33.
24:00
Nothing huge, but he would have a one year youth advantage.
24:03
Here's the big one though. The height.
24:06
Pierce is 6 foot. His opponent Sabatini is 5 foot
24:09
7. That's kind of a big advantage
24:11
there. Height advantage, 71 inch reach
24:14
versus 70 inch reach. So one inch reach advantage.
24:17
Then we get into significant strikes per minute.
24:20
This is a stat that I've learned to kind of lean on quite a bit
24:23
because unless you're going to knock a guy out or submit him,
24:27
if it goes to the judges, typically it's the the fighter
24:30
or biter who puts the more offensive output out there, who
24:34
dishes out more punishment, who gets more fate favoritism when
24:37
it comes to the refs. You look at Pierce, he's
24:40
averaging 5.32 significant strikes per minute.
24:43
His opponent, Sabatini, 2 point O2.
24:46
So Pierce dishes out way more punishment than Sabatini.
24:49
Then I was researching a little bit, but Pierce was on A5 bout
24:53
win streak and now he's lost two straight.
24:56
So he is really, I think you're going to get the best out of him
24:59
trying to get back in the green. Anytime you have like a maybe a
25:02
5 day losing streak, you know, as a better or you win five in a
25:05
row, then you lose two in a row. You're really going to, I don't
25:07
know, give it your all or I guess I don't know if that's an
25:09
apartment comparison, but I kind of like the motivational edge
25:12
for Pierce. And then I was reading about
25:14
Sabatini. He hasn't fought in over a year.
25:17
He took a year off. He got knocked out his last
25:19
time. He's had some injuries.
25:21
I kind of want to bet against the guy who hasn't seen, you
25:24
know, the bullets fly in quite a while versus Pierce, who has has
25:28
lost two straight and trying to get back into the into the win
25:32
column. So younger, taller, longer reach
25:36
line move, great bet split more significant strikes,
25:39
motivational edge against a guy who hasn't fought in a while.
25:42
So my guy is Pierce. Now to prove to you guys the
25:46
importance of shopping for the best line, I was able to get
25:49
Pierce at -168 at FanDuel. Fanatics and Caesar's have
25:55
Pierce at -180, ESPN bet has Pierce at -185, and Bet MGM has
26:00
Pierce at -190. So again, that especially in a
26:04
sport like UFC where you can see a $0.20 difference from one book
26:08
to another, I'm not a I'm not paid by FanDuel to promote them.
26:12
I'm just giving you the best number.
26:14
So I'm on FanDuel -168 on our guy Jonathan Pierce.
26:19
Now let's go over to the NFL. Lot of big games here this
26:23
weekend. Let's start talking about them.
26:26
First one for me, this is a bet that I'm a little bit nervous
26:29
about because there's been a little buyback, but I'm going to
26:31
hope that our International Series favorite system match
26:34
comes come to fruition. I'm on the Chicago Bears.
26:37
Chicago Bears open at some shops.
26:39
Shops is like a pick em plus 1 -, 1 at one point they got all
26:43
the way up to -2 1/2. They're back down to 1.
26:46
So I fully admit Jacksonville looks like they're taking in
26:48
some late money. But if you guys remember, our
26:51
International Series favorites are winning 78% of the time.
26:56
So that means when there's a game outside the US that the
26:58
chalk wins nearly 8 out of 10 times.
27:01
And you also have a much better defense for Chicago for over
27:05
Jacksonville. But again, I fully admit this
27:07
line's coming back to Jags. I'm surprised, but I'm going to
27:10
dance with the one who brung me. I'm on Chicago, I money line
27:13
them at -130 if you want to play them, they're as low as -120
27:17
Next one, Arizona Cardinals. I'm on the Cardinals at +5 and
27:21
1/2 at Green Bay. I think you can maybe get a 5
27:25
1/2. I got it.
27:27
I believe it. FanDuel, there's a lot of books
27:28
at 5:00, but I am seeing a couple shops at 5 1/2.
27:32
So again, some people call 5 1/2 a dead man's number.
27:36
I don't. I would disagree.
27:37
You land on five, you want to cover with the hook.
27:39
So I'm on Arizona 5 1/2. I like that Arizona is a 5050
27:44
bet split, yet some shops again are coming back down to five.
27:48
And you do have Arizona as a dog who can score system match as
27:52
well as a big dog getting 4 1/2 or more of those.
27:55
Those dogs are 20 and 9 against the spread 69%.
28:00
Kyler Murray as a dog, 27 and 15 ATS 64%.
28:04
So I'm on Arizona plus 5 1/2. Next one is Tennessee.
28:10
Man, we're looking good on this one.
28:12
I got Tennessee plus 1 1/2 mentioned on the pod a few days
28:15
ago. They're all the way to -2 1/2
28:18
Indies coming off a buy. But they are, I think they're
28:21
coming off a buy. Maybe they they're not, I don't
28:24
know. Hold on, let me double check.
28:26
I know there's a lot of injuries with Indianapolis.
28:29
Tennessee's coming off the buy. Sorry I flipped that thing
28:31
around, but Tennessee's rested and ready to go.
28:34
Remember the last game they had a big win against the Dolphins?
28:36
Don't remind me. I was on Dolphins but Colts are
28:39
banged up. I think Jonathan Taylor might be
28:41
out for that one. Tennessee has got a big dog to
28:44
fave line moving. The Titans are only getting 30%
28:47
of bets. I'm surprised the public still
28:48
likes Indy here. But if he didn't get a + 1 1/2 +
28:53
1, pick them for Tennessee. Now they're -2 1/2.
28:56
Think you might want to money line them just in case it's
28:58
close. Cover that number or you can lay
29:00
the 2 1/2. But again, I hope you had
29:02
listened a little bit earlier in the week.
29:05
Now, Giants plus 3 1/2. That's in pocket for me.
29:10
That may go to four this open. Cincinnati Summer Night Football
29:14
-5 1/2 got down to 3 1/2. It was looking like it was going
29:17
to get to three. Malik Neighbors, I believe, is
29:19
not going to play in this one. That's maybe why you're seeing
29:21
it. Maybe inch back up to four.
29:23
If you like the Giants, you probably want to wait and try to
29:26
get that 4. I'm going to stick with my bad.
29:28
3 1/2. So at least we got the hook.
29:30
But you have a prime time dog. Super contrarian.
29:33
Only 25% are on the Giants day balls been great as a dog. 66%
29:37
ATS. Daniel Jones, say what you will
29:40
about him, he's 57% ATS in his career as a dog.
29:43
So I'm going to stick with G men, a contrarian Sunday Night
29:46
Football special 3 1/2 again, you might be able to wait and
29:49
get the four last one I told you had a big dog that I wanted to
29:53
add. I'm hoping they lose because I'm
29:56
on the under four and half win total.
29:59
But can you lose by 6 or less? I'm going to go Patriots.
30:02
I'm going to go Patriots. And Drake May making his NFL
30:05
debut. And this one jumped out to me
30:07
for a couple reasons. 1 is that we're seeing buyback on New
30:11
England. This game opened.
30:14
Some books were like -6 six and a half, but it was basically -7
30:18
Houston all week. Now those sevens are starting to
30:21
evaporate. It's getting down to 6 1/2
30:23
toward Drake May and the Patriots.
30:25
And why is that notable? Because no one wants to play the
30:27
Patriots. Patriots are only getting 23% of
30:30
bets against Houston. So everyone's playing Houston.
30:33
But falling off a key number, that's critical.
30:35
Anytime you see a move 7 either up or down or six up or down or
30:39
3 1/2 or 3A hook or a key number, there's a lot of money
30:42
on the line depending on where that line moves.
30:45
So the fact that these sevens are evaporating tells me New
30:48
England +7 is taking in some smart money here.
30:51
Now, the other angle here would be a big dog.
30:54
Those big dogs, 6 1/2 or more, 13 and two against the spread
30:57
this year. They've been great.
31:00
And this is just a classic contrarian play.
31:02
So I don't really know what we're going to get a Drake May,
31:04
but it's notable to me that everyone's playing Houston.
31:07
Get the signs coming back to New England.
31:08
So shop around. I was able to find New England
31:11
+7 at Caesar's at -120 but again, only 23% bets, 37%
31:17
dollars. Little buyback, but really what
31:20
makes me like it is that big dog system match that's really,
31:23
really barked. So New England +7, Giants 3 1/2,
31:27
you might get a four. Tennessee, I got 1 1/2.
31:30
Now it's -2 1/2. Arizona plus 5 1/2 and Chicago
31:33
on the money line. Now to college football.
31:37
What are we doing for this weekend?
31:38
Well, a few of these plays you might know about, but I added a
31:41
couple, so I'm on Oregon. Oregon at home against Ohio
31:46
State. This is a play that I put in
31:47
much earlier in the week and I hope you guys, if you're playing
31:51
Oregon, you got the hook because Oregon plus 3 1/2 is important.
31:55
You lose by three. You want to cover with the hook.
31:57
You might be able to find a hook out there at one at one book
32:01
that I'm I'm looking at a juiced up 3 1/2, but try to get the
32:05
hook. That's what I got for the Ducks.
32:07
I like that no one wants to play Oregon.
32:09
This the most heavily bet game of the week.
32:11
Two top five teams or top six teams, whatever the case may be,
32:15
80% of bets are on Ohio State. Everybody's playing Ohio State,
32:19
but the lines going to Oregon. Ohio State opened, you know, 3
32:22
1/2 four. Now they're down to three.
32:25
Why is line going to Oregon if more than 80% of bets are going
32:28
to Ohio State? Tells me we've got Oregon as a
32:31
sharp contrarian. Reverse line move most heavily
32:33
back game of the night, 2 top five teams take the dog. 61%
32:39
over the last decade or so. So I'm on Ducks, 3 1/2 Colorado.
32:44
I got Colorado at 4 1/2. Did you guys see that number?
32:46
It's now down to three and half or even 3, but Colorado is in a
32:50
pretty good spot here unranked versus ranked, as well as a good
32:54
sharp line move. This is about a 5050 ticket
32:56
split, but line keeps going to Colorado.
32:59
So I got 4 1/2 earlier in the week.
33:00
Again, you're down to 3 1/2 at some shop, so at least try to
33:03
get the hook. Just make it down to three.
33:06
A play that I added or was actually monitoring, but we
33:10
finally got the hook on West Virginia.
33:13
Take Me Home country roads. I'm going WVU at home against
33:16
Iowa State. I've been waiting all week for
33:18
the hook and I'm seeing 2 shops that are offering the hook.
33:21
FanDuel is WVU +3 and half at -120 so this game open -3 and
33:26
half. Iowa State got down to 3.
33:28
Some shops are you know, posting a hook there 3 1/2.
33:31
What's notable is that public is all over Iowa State.
33:34
They're ranked, they're getting 65% of bets.
33:37
Yet the movement has really shown liability toward WV.
33:41
UW VU would be a on ranked, first ranked opportunity, a
33:45
conference dog opportunity, a dog who can score system match.
33:49
It's an 8:00 game, so primetime contrarian.
33:52
WVU is only getting 35% of bets, but 59% of money.
33:58
So if you want to go contrarian, get that hook.
34:00
West Virginia. Now three more bets that I
34:02
added. USCUSC caught my eye.
34:07
USC is at home against Penn State and everyone's playing
34:10
Penn State. Penn State is getting upwards of
34:13
70% of spread bets, but Penn State actually open as high as
34:17
-5 1/2. The guys the lines down to four
34:20
or even 3 1/2. So we can find a four, that's
34:23
great. If not, I'll take USC, 3 1/2,
34:25
but that is a 3:30 afternoon game in a good spot here to play
34:30
USC. It's just notable that
34:32
everyone's playing Penn State. The sign keeps coming back down
34:35
to USC. So I was able to find a four, if
34:38
not 3 1/2, but I like USC in that spot.
34:41
UCLAI added UCLA, they're at home against Minnesota and UCLA
34:49
is only getting 40% of bets, but they're getting 60% of money and
34:54
Minnesota open as high as a -, 5 1/2 Rd. favorite.
34:57
The line is down to four. So I took UCLA at +4 with a good
35:02
bet split and hopefully a live dog that can bark for us on
35:05
Saturday night at 9:00. And then last one, Nevada added
35:10
Nevada, they're at home against Oregon State. 730 primetime
35:14
game. Similar sort of situation here
35:16
where public is all over Oregon State.
35:19
They are getting, let's see, 64% of bets, yet they open -4 the
35:25
fours are down to 3 1/2 and some of those three and a halfs are
35:28
getting down to three. So there is a good opportunity
35:31
here to go contrarian and play Nevada.
35:33
I got Nevada at plus 3 1/2. They're only getting 35% of
35:37
bets, but 79% of dollars. That is a huge low bets, higher
35:43
dollars bet split with a good sharp line move.
35:45
So I got Nevada at plus 3 1/2, so Oregon plus 3 1/2, Colorado
35:50
plus 4 1/2 W Virginia plus 3 1/2, USC plus 3 1/2 or 4 if you
35:55
can find it, UCLA plus 4, Nevada plus 3 1/2.
35:59
A six pack. Can we find a way to get four of
36:01
them? That is the goal.
36:04
Take a breath. We just ran through it all guys.
36:06
Big pot here. Mega pot on a big Friday.
36:09
Let's wrap things up as we always do by offering a final
36:13
few words #1 if you enjoy this pod, you enjoy the breakdowns,
36:17
you look forward to the pod dropping each day with providing
36:21
some insights. Has it become part of your
36:22
routine? Maybe you got some plays in
36:24
pocket, You're looking for confirmation.
36:25
Maybe you are so busy you couldn't even look at all this
36:28
stuff. And you're not as lucky as I am
36:30
to work in the industry and make this your life to monitor these
36:33
numbers. Well, if you like the pod and
36:35
you want to let me know you appreciate the hard work that I
36:37
put in hosting the pod, but more importantly, you want to help me
36:39
grow this pod, could you please do one thing for me?
36:42
Could you give this pod a five star review?
36:45
All you got to do give it five stars would go a long way to
36:47
helping me grow the pod, reach more people, and hopefully I'll
36:51
rise up the charts. So please, five star review.
36:53
That would mean a lot to me. Secondly, if you want to learn
36:56
more about data-driven bedding, I wrote a book on data-driven
36:59
bedding, just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to
37:02
Sports Betting, pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
37:05
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
37:07
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
37:10
locate sharp action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet
37:12
in person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
37:15
a bankroll management plan, all included in the Everything Guide
37:18
to Sports Betting. Pick up a copy for you or a
37:21
buddy or a friend or someone who parlays everything and needs to
37:24
learn how to flat bet. It would mean a lot to me and
37:27
bring that book to the sports book.
37:29
I'll sign it for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
37:31
ale next. Have you signed up for Rhythm or
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Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
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apps. They helped me win.
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They helped us win with Gino over passing yards in the
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Liberty links over last night. But they are great kind of tools
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to add to your toolbox as data-driven betters Rhythm with
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their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
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player props, as well as Juice Reel for tailing their AI driven
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best bet picks from robo Jackson arbitrage opportunities.
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They help me win. They're going to help you win.
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Sign up using the custom links that are located in the bio
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description of each pod. So for today, it'll say, you
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know, episode 139, Josh dishes out what 5 pack of sweats, ton
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of weekend sweats. Scroll down.
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You're going to get links to juice real and rhythm.
38:27
You can sign up by clicking those links.
38:29
So that about does it everybody another week here in the books.
38:31
Let's finish up strong. As always, like to leave you
38:34
with two things. First, whether I see you at the
38:36
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
38:39
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
38:41
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
38:44
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
38:47
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
38:49
get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
38:51
number runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
38:54
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
38:56
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
38:58
When you catch a big ticket at Circo, wherever it may be, don't
39:01
show me Seattle, Pathetic MTSU or the Red Wings.
39:04
You can show me Gino over passing yards, Liberty Links
39:07
flying over. First one's on me, next one's on
39:10
you. We'll post about the book and
39:11
sweat some sharp contrarian plays together so that about
39:14
does everybody look forward to seeing you on the live stream
39:17
Sunday at 11:00 AM Eastern Time. We'll be breaking down all the
39:20
NFL action all. But as always, I'll leave you
39:22
with this. Stay sharp, stay contrarian.
39:25
Bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the
39:27
house. Always be with the smart money,
39:29
never against it. Will smart money when every
39:31
time? Of course not.
39:32
Sometimes smart money is going to lose.
39:34
That's just betting. Betting is difficult, however
39:37
long, long, you know, long term, smart money is going to win the
39:41
majority of the time, 55 to 60%. And our goal as sports betters
39:45
is to bypass the games that have red flags or don't check off the
39:48
boxes and get down fearlessly on the games that do against the
39:52
public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays
39:56
and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
39:58
to be successful sports betters. So have a great Friday night,
40:01
have an even better weekend. I'll see you at 11:00 AM Eastern
40:04
Time on Sunday for the live stream and then after that.
40:07
I'll see you guys on Monday for episode 140 of the All Systems
40:10
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
40:13
Good luck everybody, have a great weekend.