Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Thrivin' and Survivin' in NFL Week 15

Transcript

Thrivin' and Survivin' in NFL Week 15 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman and I'm gonna be joined by
0:16
Speaker 1: my companion, my BFF, my personal professional better Simon Hunter,
0:23
Speaker 1: who Simons listening. We had a hard, hard week last week,
0:29
Speaker 1: and by we, I mean you. It's no secret how
0:33
Speaker 1: much I love you. You are the straw that stirs
0:36
Speaker 1: this podcast. Drink of prose pro a better, a good
0:39
Speaker 1: share with great attitude, constant support. Seriously, like you give
0:43
Speaker 1: and you give, and people can come after you and
0:45
Speaker 1: you do not care. Little did I know that while
0:48
Speaker 1: we were doing this podcast last week you were in
0:51
Speaker 1: the beginning of stages of COVID. What the actual fuck?
0:56
Speaker 1: Simon who records a podcast when they are feeling like
1:02
Speaker 1: shit from COVID Before we get any further. And I
1:07
Speaker 1: don't want this to be like we're on the evil media.
1:09
Speaker 1: Dude who's trying to bring suspenseful, suspenseful moments. Just tell
1:13
Speaker 1: us how you're feeling, it said, Uh, yeah, buddy, it was.
1:19
Speaker 1: It was definitely a weird situation last week where I
1:23
Speaker 1: I pretty much found out a COVID and I had
1:25
Speaker 1: to go into self isolation on a Sunday, and it
1:28
Speaker 1: wasn't guarantee that I had COVID was someone that I
1:30
Speaker 1: was with like had just tested positive. So I basically
1:35
Speaker 1: I felt fine. I felt fine Sunday, I felt fine Monday,
1:38
Speaker 1: and Monday night I felt a little weird, like I
1:40
Speaker 1: had some tightness in my back or whatever. And then
1:44
Speaker 1: Tuesday to the show, I felt fine, and I take
1:47
Speaker 1: I always take a nap on Tuesday because I got
1:49
Speaker 1: up so early and I literally wake up from that nap.
1:51
Speaker 1: But I was just like, uh, I was like trying
1:54
Speaker 1: to explain to it's like being on the grab just
1:56
Speaker 1: like gravityr rods of these carnivals where it's like you
1:59
Speaker 1: try to stand up and move, but it feels like
2:02
Speaker 1: the grabbing everything's pushing against you. I just felt really weak.
2:05
Speaker 1: I could go downstairs and I can go to get
2:07
Speaker 1: like for some food, and I eat it and it
2:09
Speaker 1: tastes like nothing, and I go, holy sh it, I
2:12
Speaker 1: really got it. I got COVID, and I was like
2:15
Speaker 1: a little moment of shock, and I was just by myself,
2:17
Speaker 1: and I was just like, what the hell, man, Like
2:20
Speaker 1: it kind of stinks in me. You're just like all right,
2:23
Speaker 1: so I'm either gonna get like crazy, second go to
2:25
Speaker 1: the hospital or like this isn't gonna be that bad,
2:28
Speaker 1: and it was right in between. I was just like
2:31
Speaker 1: going through uh a rough two days spell. So from
2:35
Speaker 1: Tuesday night until like Thursday morning ish, I just was
2:40
Speaker 1: not coughing or anything like that, but like my head
2:42
Speaker 1: was a balloon, Like my body was just sworn weak
2:47
Speaker 1: and there's no taste, so I didn't want to eat,
2:50
Speaker 1: so like I was just popping tons of pills, like
2:52
Speaker 1: vitamin pills and things like that, and just I like that,
2:57
Speaker 1: like you get into your own head, but you're just
2:58
Speaker 1: like the days are just dragon. I was like literally
3:01
Speaker 1: two days might as went on a week like it
3:03
Speaker 1: was just especially because I was by myself. It just
3:05
Speaker 1: took forever. But now it's it's it's not bad. I
3:11
Speaker 1: feel good. I I still feel the effects of it
3:16
Speaker 1: where it's like you're not completely over it and it's
3:18
Speaker 1: been over a week now, um, but yeah, man, it was.
3:22
Speaker 1: It was definitely weird, especially like I took to you.
3:25
Speaker 1: I go to the books all the time, So that's
3:27
Speaker 1: the first NFL weekend, Like even during COVID, I've been
3:31
Speaker 1: going to the sports books to make bets, So that
3:33
Speaker 1: was the first time I don't even know. Maybe it
3:37
Speaker 1: feels like ten years, eight years. I didn't go to
3:39
Speaker 1: a sports book for an NFL slate in the like
3:43
Speaker 1: the morning, because I just loved it, Like it's it's
3:46
Speaker 1: just something different about being there someday morning. So that
3:49
Speaker 1: was weird. That was were bed and everything online was
3:51
Speaker 1: weird because I don't love like I do the online
3:53
Speaker 1: but not that often. I like to do it in person.
3:56
Speaker 1: So it was just weird. But I've got good health, man,
3:59
Speaker 1: I'm I feel very fortunate, honestly, So I don't want
4:02
Speaker 1: to be too much of it down. Well, you're not
4:05
Speaker 1: a downer, Like in any time anyone is sort of
4:07
Speaker 1: remotely sick, I think they're automatically assume at this point
4:11
Speaker 1: they've got COVID. Like last week. Last week, my wife's
4:15
Speaker 1: throat hurt and on the same day like for some reason,
4:19
Speaker 1: one of my eyes was burning and we're like a
4:23
Speaker 1: fuck and like the way you described, like fun do
4:27
Speaker 1: I have this? Am I gonna go to the hospital?
4:28
Speaker 1: It's like there is a real palpable fear of the
4:31
Speaker 1: consequences more than like it's not so much the idea
4:36
Speaker 1: of just getting sick and having the flu in what
4:37
Speaker 1: you described. It's like the stuff after that and then
4:40
Speaker 1: the next day, like her throat didn't hurt and my
4:43
Speaker 1: eye didn't burn and and she and she looked at
4:47
Speaker 1: me in and I'm like, states, we fucking beat COVID,
4:50
Speaker 1: Like it's a good day and we beat COVID. So
4:53
Speaker 1: I I empathize with sort of your fear of what
4:57
Speaker 1: was going to happen, because I think the psychological is
5:00
Speaker 1: scary as the actual like concept of just the physical. Yeah,
5:05
Speaker 1: definitely that that's the whole thing. It's like I've had
5:10
Speaker 1: in my life. I have a worst common cold. It's
5:12
Speaker 1: like a little cold, a little bug you get for
5:14
Speaker 1: two days and it just tears you down. You're like
5:16
Speaker 1: coughing and you're whatever, sore throat for just two really
5:19
Speaker 1: rough days. This just wasn't like that. It's just different,
5:22
Speaker 1: And like I was saying you, it just makes me
5:24
Speaker 1: really like it's it's scary. It's like I could see
5:28
Speaker 1: how if someone has underlying conditions or anything else going on.
5:31
Speaker 1: It's like this thing just seems to attack a bunch
5:33
Speaker 1: of different things in here about it at the same time,
5:36
Speaker 1: Like it shut literally shut down my will to like eat,
5:40
Speaker 1: And I think I told you that's my favorite thing.
5:42
Speaker 1: I love to eat food. So it was just a
5:45
Speaker 1: weird thing the way it attacks, and like everyone's affected differently,
5:49
Speaker 1: like people I know they got it. They had some
5:51
Speaker 1: of the same sencems to me, but not not really
5:54
Speaker 1: like the same order and different things like that. So definitely, Um,
5:59
Speaker 1: the vigil And we talked earlier. Man, it's like the
6:02
Speaker 1: vaccines on this here. Just be safe, get the vaccine,
6:05
Speaker 1: and hopefully we can get things back to normal. The
6:08
Speaker 1: end is so fucking close. We're like three or four
6:11
Speaker 1: months away. Just everybody stay safe where masks stay socially distant. Um.
6:17
Speaker 1: And of course I am not entirely without like my
6:20
Speaker 1: mercenary self because on Saturday, don't forget. Like I was
6:27
Speaker 1: texting you, this is gonna be great podcast content. You
6:32
Speaker 1: like you survive. You fought through COVID to do the podcast,
6:38
Speaker 1: to bet you survived COVID to bet and win in
6:41
Speaker 1: the NFL. Yeah, and uh, I told you from now
6:46
Speaker 1: on until it runs, I have a funny joke. I'm
6:49
Speaker 1: gonna call myself a survivor because that's what I am.
6:52
Speaker 1: I'm a survive it. But my name is Savid Covid
6:58
Speaker 1: and now we can get to the part of the
7:00
Speaker 1: week we went two and three. Body, let me remind
7:02
Speaker 1: everybody that you are a professional better and you are
7:05
Speaker 1: joining the pot every week and together we have entered
7:07
Speaker 1: the Draft Kings Pro Football pick Um National Championship. Every
7:10
Speaker 1: week we're putting five picks in to win one million
7:13
Speaker 1: dollars um and we did that again this week. We're
7:16
Speaker 1: also bringing back the cash fuel phrase that pays contest.
7:22
Speaker 1: We are giving a lucky listeners for every game we win.
7:25
Speaker 1: Each week, we are going to give an equal amount
7:28
Speaker 1: to the charity of the winner's choice. We're going to
7:31
Speaker 1: announce the winner at the end of the show to
7:33
Speaker 1: be eligible for the prize. Go review the podcast this
7:37
Speaker 1: week you are using the phrase Simon says, I am indestructible.
7:42
Speaker 1: Use that in your review. Simon says, I am indestructible.
7:46
Speaker 1: And if we randomly choose it, if Matt Mitchell, the
7:48
Speaker 1: producer randomly chooses it, you will win the money. Everything
7:52
Speaker 1: we're discussing, every pick, we make, all the data, it's
7:56
Speaker 1: all available in the Action Network app. It's free, it's
7:58
Speaker 1: award winning. Go downloaded. Meanwhile, Simon, like you said, we
8:02
Speaker 1: did go two and three this past week, but we
8:05
Speaker 1: also chose to make this the second required by in
8:10
Speaker 1: the contest. We have to take two bye weeks over
8:12
Speaker 1: the course of the sixteen weeks. The contest only goes
8:15
Speaker 1: through weeks sixteen, so we had to take two byes.
8:17
Speaker 1: This was our second bye. We did put our picks
8:20
Speaker 1: in the app. We went two in three none of
8:22
Speaker 1: that counter to get its our record, so that's really good.
8:25
Speaker 1: Um also amazing that now we've taken our second bye.
8:27
Speaker 1: For those two weeks we win three and seven, so
8:29
Speaker 1: that's great. With two weeks remaining in the contest, we
8:32
Speaker 1: are in fifty four place out of eight hundred four
8:35
Speaker 1: games out of first place. On the year, we are
8:38
Speaker 1: thirty six and twenty four in the contest, which means
8:41
Speaker 1: the leader is forty and twenty. We are winning at
8:44
Speaker 1: a six clip and that's only the picks that we
8:47
Speaker 1: have put in. Overall, including the picks that we put
8:50
Speaker 1: in the app which concludes the bye week picks, we
8:52
Speaker 1: are thirty one even in that is winning at a
8:55
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent clip. Again, follow Simon Hunter in the
8:58
Speaker 1: Action Network app. It's free for all of the picks
9:00
Speaker 1: we make. We put them in Sunday morning. I mean,
9:04
Speaker 1: you're a professional better. That's pretty freaking good. I'll take it. Uh,
9:10
Speaker 1: it's heartbreaking, Like yeah, I said it's cash five, but
9:14
Speaker 1: it's it's it is heartbreaking. We look back and we
9:16
Speaker 1: have so many games where we're like, oh god, if
9:18
Speaker 1: I just went the other way, because like you're just saying,
9:22
Speaker 1: we're four back in the lead. So here we are
9:25
Speaker 1: two weeks left. We need a little bit of help
9:28
Speaker 1: from these top guys. But if we just put back
9:30
Speaker 1: to back four and one five no weeks, we can
9:32
Speaker 1: get there. And we uh, we've definitely had not the
9:40
Speaker 1: right touch for you've you've been money. These bye weeks
9:42
Speaker 1: three and seven and the two bye weeks take him
9:44
Speaker 1: and it's huge. So hopefully these upcoming weeks we can
9:48
Speaker 1: really put together slide picks. You get the bad ones
9:50
Speaker 1: out of the way, Simon, That's what I say. But listen,
9:54
Speaker 1: we got a lot to talk about. We got the
9:56
Speaker 1: big balls better the week, we got the hornets nest,
9:59
Speaker 1: we got the survivor a pick. Because you're still alive
10:01
Speaker 1: in your survivor pool, you gotta make two survivors picks
10:03
Speaker 1: to advance. Um, we're probably enough to figure out some
10:07
Speaker 1: game theory like which way are we going that some
10:09
Speaker 1: of the people ahead of us might not go we
10:11
Speaker 1: got a zig when they zag zag and zig. Let's
10:14
Speaker 1: get to her brother, Let's get to some game action,
10:18
Speaker 1: and can I say we're starting off with a craptashtic, gross,
10:22
Speaker 1: disgusting Chargers visiting the Las Vegas Draders. They are three
10:28
Speaker 1: and a half point dogs. Chargers did everything we expected
10:31
Speaker 1: him to do on Sunday. They were awful. They just
10:35
Speaker 1: had the good fortune of playing the Falcons, who, even
10:39
Speaker 1: with a new coach, found way to be the old team.
10:41
Speaker 1: So personally, there's no way I think we can put
10:44
Speaker 1: this in the contest. But I'm sure you have a taken. Yeah,
10:48
Speaker 1: it's it's it's so ugly. We joked earlier, and I
10:52
Speaker 1: think the over Runner was fifty two fifty two and
10:54
Speaker 1: a half. It's just a fun standalone game. We take
10:56
Speaker 1: the over but I'm gonna be taking the Vegas side.
11:00
Speaker 1: We just saw the Chargers get a big win at home,
11:03
Speaker 1: not come on the road plane charge Raiders team. That
11:07
Speaker 1: man was that that was a bad loss against the Colts.
11:10
Speaker 1: I was dead wrong on that one. So going back
11:13
Speaker 1: to the well on Thursday night at home team taking
11:16
Speaker 1: the Raiders. Mynice three and a half here, but yeah,
11:19
Speaker 1: we definitely can put this woman. Yeah. Reminder for everybody
11:22
Speaker 1: last week we had we won with the Bears and
11:24
Speaker 1: the the Dolphins. We lost the Vikings, the Raiders, Giants
11:35
Speaker 1: and the Giants. That's right, because you know they call
11:39
Speaker 1: him Daniel. Lose me some dimes, Jones. Let's hear it
11:46
Speaker 1: for Danny Dimes. We are into Saturday games to Saturday games.
11:51
Speaker 1: This is the first one Bill's Broncos. Thatt Mitchell's favorite
11:54
Speaker 1: team producer, extraordinary Matt Mitchell. The Buffalo Bills coming off
11:58
Speaker 1: a big high. Happy now happy now happy, A lot
12:09
Speaker 1: of stupid spirits happening now, big big number of Bills
12:15
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites against the Broncos, who
12:18
Speaker 1: challenge us emotionally. We we talked a couple weeks ago,
12:23
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. We like them and the FC. We thought
12:26
Speaker 1: of all the teams left, they match up well against
12:29
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and they've gone this crazy run. And we've
12:31
Speaker 1: laughed about how I've just been dead wrong two weeks
12:34
Speaker 1: in a row against the Bills. I keep picking against them.
12:37
Speaker 1: The Bills keep winning and they keep covering. But this week,
12:42
Speaker 1: what are we talking about here? We're talking about a
12:44
Speaker 1: Bills team that just want a huge game on prime
12:45
Speaker 1: time at home, traveling to go play a Broncos team
12:49
Speaker 1: who they just want a game on the road. I
12:50
Speaker 1: know it's a little scary, but we liked that they've
12:54
Speaker 1: been playing well. They beat Miami at home. They played
12:58
Speaker 1: the Saints about the quarterback, so we don't count that game.
13:01
Speaker 1: But this game here six and a half plus seven
13:05
Speaker 1: with the Broncos. We have to take this number. This
13:08
Speaker 1: is a way too big number. I had a four
13:11
Speaker 1: and a half, so as long as there's about five.
13:14
Speaker 1: I like this and I don't hate it to the competition.
13:17
Speaker 1: But I know you're you're not gonna be a fan
13:18
Speaker 1: because it Drew Lock and lock. Look it's it's Drew Lock.
13:23
Speaker 1: It's a Saturday game. Are we committing to a Saturday
13:26
Speaker 1: game and potentially having sort of some kind of emotional
13:30
Speaker 1: hangover if we lose, it's gonna ruin the rest of
13:33
Speaker 1: our Saturday. Not not by the way, not that we
13:36
Speaker 1: do anything. You've got COVID and can't go anywhere. I'm
13:39
Speaker 1: afraid of COVID, and don't go anywhere. So like it's
13:41
Speaker 1: not like Saturday night I'm gonna be going anywhere, but
13:44
Speaker 1: like we're all of a sudden gonna be like thinking, Okay,
13:48
Speaker 1: it's gonna that's a scary one. Drew Lock Saturday as
13:53
Speaker 1: a home dog scares me a little bit, even though
13:55
Speaker 1: it's totally the right side, totally the right side. Um,
14:00
Speaker 1: I'm going to write it down. I'm not totally against
14:03
Speaker 1: it because I feel like we got to do some
14:06
Speaker 1: gross things this week. We start making up some ground,
14:09
Speaker 1: right So I'm putting it down. It's making a list.
14:13
Speaker 1: The other game, which I think might be more interesting,
14:15
Speaker 1: the other Saturday game. The Panthers are eating a half
14:18
Speaker 1: point dogs against the Packers. This to me, it feels
14:23
Speaker 1: like we're gonna end up you know, Teddy Teddy covers. Yeah,
14:29
Speaker 1: you already know, Boddy, we love Teddy as a dog.
14:31
Speaker 1: This whole year, we've we've faded Teddy as a favorite
14:34
Speaker 1: and we've taken them as a dog and it's it's
14:35
Speaker 1: worked well for us. So once again, Green Bay Packers.
14:39
Speaker 1: We saw last week they let the lines come back
14:42
Speaker 1: at the late field goal for that back door cover
14:44
Speaker 1: and they're just one of those teams where they can't.
14:47
Speaker 1: I can't blow out these teams, and the Panthers have
14:50
Speaker 1: weapons on offense where they can always put up points.
14:52
Speaker 1: So Panthers coming off the loss, coming to play green
14:55
Speaker 1: Bay after green Bay has had a big divisional win.
14:58
Speaker 1: As long as it's about seven. We love this summer.
15:00
Speaker 1: So I'm with that we can we can pass on
15:03
Speaker 1: the Bronchos and this could be our Saturday play because
15:05
Speaker 1: I don't know if you know this Chat Nor Eastern's coming.
15:07
Speaker 1: I me, and you're gonna be snowed in for the
15:09
Speaker 1: next three days anyway, so we might as well have
15:12
Speaker 1: a football game on Saturday that we're betting on. There
15:15
Speaker 1: is a north Easter headed our way. I did not
15:19
Speaker 1: even know that. Yeah, honestly, so it's gonna be. It's
15:23
Speaker 1: supposed to hit me tomorrow night, so it would be
15:25
Speaker 1: by be to you by I guess Thursday morning. It's
15:30
Speaker 1: not the only storm that's coming. Are you excited? It's
15:35
Speaker 1: not the only storm that's coming. There's a storm of
15:38
Speaker 1: winning that's headed our way. I do love I do
15:41
Speaker 1: love the Panthers in this game. But the more I
15:43
Speaker 1: look at this Broncos game like, the more just starts
15:45
Speaker 1: to feel like the right side. We might have to
15:47
Speaker 1: go for two games on Saturday. As we get closer,
15:50
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to sort of think about this. Um,
15:53
Speaker 1: remember we did that on Thanksgiving. We started off to
15:55
Speaker 1: and oh, because we liked those games and like of
16:00
Speaker 1: cose might feel right here. If if they both if
16:03
Speaker 1: they both come through, that's a that's a sharp day
16:06
Speaker 1: because that's both big dogs covering. That is a legit
16:09
Speaker 1: sharp day. But we gotta be sharp. We gotta we
16:11
Speaker 1: gotta go find you know, we gotta take some chances here.
16:14
Speaker 1: The Lion the Lions Titans game is posted a ten
16:17
Speaker 1: and a half. I think I want to skip it
16:19
Speaker 1: right now because we just don't know anything about Stafford. Yeah,
16:22
Speaker 1: it was the same thing. We actually had them in
16:24
Speaker 1: the lines in our contest. We had them at seven
16:26
Speaker 1: and a half seven and I switched him out just
16:29
Speaker 1: this past week just because I had unknowns with Stafford
16:31
Speaker 1: and a thumb injury. So if you watch the film
16:34
Speaker 1: on the game last week, he literally gets hit right
16:37
Speaker 1: in the ribs, like he gets folded up onto himself
16:40
Speaker 1: and I know he's saying he's gonna play, but uh,
16:44
Speaker 1: I don't know. It feels like there's nothing really to
16:47
Speaker 1: play for it. He's a tough guy and he wants
16:49
Speaker 1: to play, but we're gonna understand away from it. But
16:53
Speaker 1: I'll be taking the Titans like there's no way I
16:54
Speaker 1: come back on the Troydan team without Stafford. So if
16:57
Speaker 1: it's ten a half and your pickpools, that's gonna end
16:59
Speaker 1: up being on. We are into the early games on
17:04
Speaker 1: Sunday afternoon. This is so interesting to me. The forty
17:10
Speaker 1: who we've been liking, they've been a bet on team
17:12
Speaker 1: for us, are visiting the Cowboys. The Cowboys three and
17:15
Speaker 1: a half point favorites on Draft Kings. Right now, I
17:18
Speaker 1: feel like the forty Niners have crashed. I feel like
17:21
Speaker 1: we've written the forty Niners wave and they're no longer
17:25
Speaker 1: the team that you want to be betting on. Yeah,
17:29
Speaker 1: and we we talked last week with them Washington. We
17:31
Speaker 1: we like both those teams, and we leaned Washington just
17:35
Speaker 1: because of three and a half. We thought that was
17:36
Speaker 1: a good number. But I said, I just like the
17:38
Speaker 1: under and that came through. That was an easy bet
17:40
Speaker 1: under in that game. So we're this week the forty
17:43
Speaker 1: nine years there one of these teams. Where are we
17:47
Speaker 1: sure they're three points better than the Cowboys, and everyone's
17:52
Speaker 1: gonna betting on the forty niners. Like you just said,
17:54
Speaker 1: this is this is one of those where the public's
17:58
Speaker 1: coming on the four niners and we have to be
18:00
Speaker 1: on the other side of this because this is a
18:02
Speaker 1: too big of a number for the Cowboys to be
18:04
Speaker 1: laying at home. And three it's great. I did, like
18:08
Speaker 1: you know, was that three and a half? That was
18:09
Speaker 1: a really nice number. But three, I'm still happy to
18:11
Speaker 1: take out the Cowboys. And this is one of those
18:14
Speaker 1: where I'm not gonna fight you on it if you
18:16
Speaker 1: don't want to put it in, but I'd probably put
18:18
Speaker 1: it in the contest. Seriously, Yeah, just because the more
18:22
Speaker 1: I think about it just feels like a really smart
18:24
Speaker 1: number where just everyone's coming in on the forty nine
18:27
Speaker 1: because they don't even give him up on them yet,
18:28
Speaker 1: but it just seems like it's too many points for them.
18:31
Speaker 1: You're laying on the road, dude. It's week fifteen that
18:34
Speaker 1: we're talking about here. We've got two weeks left to
18:37
Speaker 1: make a run, and it feels like you are going
18:39
Speaker 1: all in on Week fifteen right now. You're lining us
18:42
Speaker 1: up on the Broncos. So far, you have lined us
18:45
Speaker 1: up on the Broncos, the Panthers, and the Cowboys, Like,
18:50
Speaker 1: oh my god, I'm sick to my stomach. I almost
18:53
Speaker 1: need like Matt Mitchell while we were doing this, if
18:55
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell could look up the against the spread records
19:00
Speaker 1: for the Broncos, the Panthers, and the Cowboys, just to
19:03
Speaker 1: know what we are getting ourselves into. Because obviously we've
19:06
Speaker 1: got a huge schedule, a huge slave stilting to go through.
19:09
Speaker 1: And right now you've got me convinced like these are
19:12
Speaker 1: amazing sharp side bets. We gotta talk about the Bears,
19:19
Speaker 1: the resurgent. We don't know how to tank. We're not
19:24
Speaker 1: gonna win enough to make the playoffs, but we don't
19:28
Speaker 1: know how to tank to get a good draft pick.
19:30
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears three point underdogs on the road at the
19:36
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. Mitch Robiski, Matt Nigi just had the greatest
19:46
Speaker 1: game they're gonna ever gonna have. We took the Bears
19:48
Speaker 1: last week. It was one of our wins. That's it
19:51
Speaker 1: for me. I want no, I like to change it. Then,
19:55
Speaker 1: Chad loves this not real deep down, he loves that
19:57
Speaker 1: it's doing. In the half, he thinks the Bears are
19:59
Speaker 1: just as good as of Vikings. He likes this number
20:01
Speaker 1: a lot. I on the other side, I hate this.
20:04
Speaker 1: I think this is all in Minnesota. This is a
20:07
Speaker 1: classic trap game where Minnesota just lost and insane game,
20:12
Speaker 1: whether kick or couldn't make anything. They just completely melted
20:15
Speaker 1: down against the Bucks. And like you just said, the
20:17
Speaker 1: Bears just had their game of the year. They won
20:19
Speaker 1: on every every fastt of the game last week. They
20:21
Speaker 1: want special teams defense and offense. They just dominated Houston,
20:25
Speaker 1: and we know the Bears aren't good. So I think
20:29
Speaker 1: there's second people in this three and a half. They're
20:31
Speaker 1: trying to get Bears money. But the smart size game
20:34
Speaker 1: in Minnesota. I love this pick. So I hate for
20:37
Speaker 1: you to put Minnesota against your own team, but it's
20:41
Speaker 1: it's one of those sides. I wouldn't mind having the contest,
20:44
Speaker 1: all right. Two things. Two things. Number one, the numbers
20:47
Speaker 1: three not three and a half. Number two. Number two.
20:53
Speaker 1: Let me give you something against the spread records Dallas
20:55
Speaker 1: three and ten, Denver eight and five, Carolina's seven and six.
21:00
Speaker 1: So we're we're smart with Dever and Carolina. We are
21:04
Speaker 1: we are like betters. No, we're Gaant. We're betters with
21:09
Speaker 1: Denver and Carolina. We are gamblers with Dallas. That's what
21:13
Speaker 1: we are. That I'm just saying. I'm just saying, by
21:16
Speaker 1: the way, by the way, Minnesota at three, is this
21:21
Speaker 1: a hornets nest? Are we walking into a hornets nest?
21:24
Speaker 1: I'll walk into hornets that's on this one. I love Minnesota.
21:27
Speaker 1: I'm walking too, a fucking hornets nest? Alright now, be
21:29
Speaker 1: my companion. You love Minnesota even at three? Yeah, I
21:33
Speaker 1: mean that's even better. It depends on a book. You're
21:36
Speaker 1: looking like. I'm looking at two different books right now,
21:38
Speaker 1: but without three and a half still for the Bears,
21:40
Speaker 1: but yeah, three, it's even better. It's it's given me
21:43
Speaker 1: a public bet. I'm sure, because a lot of people
21:45
Speaker 1: aren't gonna be back in the Bears. But just this
21:47
Speaker 1: lines up as a situational plut You are my companions.
21:52
Speaker 1: Be my companion, as they say, we are going to
21:55
Speaker 1: walk into this hornets nest together and we're it will
21:58
Speaker 1: be such rich Just this for me if we end
22:01
Speaker 1: up winning a game and getting closer to winning this
22:03
Speaker 1: contest by betting against the Chicago Bears. Right now, we
22:07
Speaker 1: basically like every game out on the board. We're gonna
22:10
Speaker 1: we're gonna have fifteen games in which we gotta make decisions.
22:12
Speaker 1: I know I can guarantee you we don't like the
22:14
Speaker 1: bucks in the Falcons right now. Yeah, we're gonna talk
22:20
Speaker 1: about a bunch of this week. This is a week
22:22
Speaker 1: where there's gonna be a lot of home dogs and
22:25
Speaker 1: the public is gonna be coming in heavy on the
22:27
Speaker 1: road favorite. So it was a couple of weeks ago
22:30
Speaker 1: I gave it out it went five, and now taking
22:32
Speaker 1: home dogs against the spread, um, obviously we're not gonna
22:36
Speaker 1: have those returns again. That's just that's an insane paste.
22:40
Speaker 1: But the Falcons fit that description. People. People are like
22:46
Speaker 1: you and me, Chad, They're just they're burned. They're burned
22:49
Speaker 1: out on that rhine. Every time you come in and
22:52
Speaker 1: bet on the Falcons, that feels like they'll lose for you.
22:54
Speaker 1: And this numbers jumped from opening up four to six,
22:57
Speaker 1: so that means sharp money is coming on the bus.
23:00
Speaker 1: So it's a little scary. But I have to take
23:03
Speaker 1: a home dog here in Atlanta plus six and just
23:05
Speaker 1: hope it keeps going up because anything anything above six
23:08
Speaker 1: is even better. Because I had this game at three
23:10
Speaker 1: and a half. So the fact that it's already at six,
23:13
Speaker 1: I think it's a good number. Of the Falcons. Clearly
23:15
Speaker 1: you've lost your sense of taste because this game is disgusting.
23:23
Speaker 1: Fear makes you do things you didn't think you could do. Dude,
23:26
Speaker 1: COVID has turned you into a deep, deep philosopher. That's like, uh,
23:33
Speaker 1: assignment is um right there. We got melmanisms, we got
23:35
Speaker 1: scootchis ums. We just added assignment ism to the pantheon
23:39
Speaker 1: of great phrases for this contest, super dark. We can
23:42
Speaker 1: pass Taxans seven and a half point dogs on the
23:46
Speaker 1: road at Indie. I mean the number makes sense. The
23:50
Speaker 1: Texans really like it's over for them, and the Bears
23:54
Speaker 1: were sort of a last last last stand, not that
23:57
Speaker 1: they were going to make the playoffs, but at least
23:58
Speaker 1: to show up. Been the the Draft Bowl between Watson
24:04
Speaker 1: and Robiski. But they don't have any They don't have
24:06
Speaker 1: anyone left, They don't have any weapons, Like Deshaun Watson.
24:08
Speaker 1: I feel bad for the guy's he's off on an
24:10
Speaker 1: island by himself. Yeah, this is gonna a super chalk pick,
24:15
Speaker 1: but we have to take the Colts. The Yeah, Texas
24:18
Speaker 1: have lost their starting safety who was a stud, their
24:21
Speaker 1: starting cornerback who was the number one, and they lost
24:24
Speaker 1: a number on my receiver. There's just that that team
24:27
Speaker 1: already had didn't have much on it, and now it's
24:29
Speaker 1: lost it's key, key positions. We're happy to fade them here.
24:33
Speaker 1: But seven and a half that scares me off. But
24:36
Speaker 1: if it's at seven in the contest, I don't hate
24:38
Speaker 1: taking it. About seven and a half that that's a
24:40
Speaker 1: little it's a little juicey for me. It's very juicy
24:44
Speaker 1: to juicy juicy fruit. Uh. This next game, the Seahawks
24:50
Speaker 1: are five and a half point road favorites, according to
24:55
Speaker 1: Draft Kings, against the Washington football team. We know Alex
25:00
Speaker 1: it is a professional football quarterback. We don't know if
25:03
Speaker 1: he's playing because of what happened last week and Haskins
25:06
Speaker 1: finishing the game. But this guy, we're talking about waves.
25:09
Speaker 1: We're talking about riding waves. The Niners have crested. The
25:15
Speaker 1: football team to me has not and you're still getting
25:17
Speaker 1: value on them, especially if it's going to be Alex
25:20
Speaker 1: Smith at plus five and a half plus six with
25:23
Speaker 1: Chase Young playing the way that he's playing, and like
25:26
Speaker 1: that front four is fearsome. I love this team, love
25:31
Speaker 1: this number. Give me the football team for my lungs.
25:35
Speaker 1: I would put the football team in the contest if
25:39
Speaker 1: this was the game we needed to win for a
25:41
Speaker 1: million dollars. If Alex Smith is playing, If Alex Smith
25:47
Speaker 1: is playing, right, that's that's the main cue. If if
25:49
Speaker 1: it's asking we're h on the other side, we would
25:52
Speaker 1: take the Seahawks. But Alex Smith, we've seen it timetime again.
25:56
Speaker 1: He can just move the ball and can get to
25:58
Speaker 1: his weapons. So right there, way the Seahawks. We know,
26:02
Speaker 1: they just had that big win against the Jets. That's
26:05
Speaker 1: that's the Jets. Every other team the Seahawks play, they
26:07
Speaker 1: played close, and they played down the level of the
26:09
Speaker 1: competition and the fact that Washington, like you just said,
26:15
Speaker 1: there there, we don't know if they peaked yet. This
26:17
Speaker 1: could be it, this could be when they fall off
26:19
Speaker 1: the map. But their favorite for the division right now.
26:22
Speaker 1: So obviously Vegas believes in them too. So I don't
26:26
Speaker 1: hate this play with Washington as long as Alex Smith
26:28
Speaker 1: and We're gonna come back and check on this on Sunday.
26:30
Speaker 1: I like this play a lot too. How cool is
26:33
Speaker 1: Ron Rivera, By the way, that he figured out earlier
26:36
Speaker 1: in the year the division was crap, that his defense
26:38
Speaker 1: was going to be good, that he was going to
26:40
Speaker 1: have a shot if he played the right quarterback, and
26:42
Speaker 1: he made a very early switch to go from Dayne
26:44
Speaker 1: Haskins to Kyle Allen. And who knows what would be
26:46
Speaker 1: happening if Kyle Allen hadn't been injured. But the point
26:49
Speaker 1: was like, he saw an opportunity to win right away
26:52
Speaker 1: and went for it. I love that about that guy.
26:57
Speaker 1: And I'm a believer in the fact that these coaches
27:00
Speaker 1: see these guys all day every day in practice and
27:02
Speaker 1: everything like that, and we all know we watched Herbert
27:05
Speaker 1: or any player like that. We can see if a
27:07
Speaker 1: guy's special tools and if he's got it or not.
27:10
Speaker 1: And we've yet to see anything from Haskins that this
27:13
Speaker 1: kid has. It's so right there with great called by
27:16
Speaker 1: him because I would not have believed in Alex smith
27:18
Speaker 1: Like the fact that he just has one fully functioning
27:21
Speaker 1: leg it terrifies me. But he just he is what
27:25
Speaker 1: you say, professional quarterback. He can do all the right
27:28
Speaker 1: little things that help you win games. So Alex smith
27:31
Speaker 1: Man when in the NFC is pretty insane. Story of
27:36
Speaker 1: one fully functioning leg, but a completely fully functioning heart. Yeah,
27:44
Speaker 1: he's the tin man. No, I mean like he plays
27:48
Speaker 1: with heart. What I'm saying, it's a gamer? So did
27:52
Speaker 1: Tim tva That that didn't work? Every Tim Tiba did it?
27:56
Speaker 1: Fully functioning heart, fully functioning professional quarterback capabilities. Speaking of
28:03
Speaker 1: fully functioning quarterbacks, the Patriots are visiting the Dolphins and
28:07
Speaker 1: there two point underdogs in Miami. How the tables have
28:13
Speaker 1: turned the student becomes the teacher. Brian Flores is uh
28:19
Speaker 1: turning this Dolphins team around? Former coach on Bill Belichick's staff. Um,
28:28
Speaker 1: you know how much I love the Dolphins situation. Dolphins,
28:36
Speaker 1: great defense, great coach, consistently showing up, playing hard to
28:42
Speaker 1: the final whistle, less than a field goal favorite at
28:46
Speaker 1: home against a team that cannot move the ball. If
28:51
Speaker 1: you say, take the Patriots, take the Yeah, I do
28:58
Speaker 1: love the Patriots. But now I'm like in flashes where
29:01
Speaker 1: I can just see us on Sunday and you being like,
29:04
Speaker 1: I'm gonna dance in your grave if the Miami covered
29:08
Speaker 1: this two and a half. So it scaring me a
29:10
Speaker 1: little now the more we look at and talk about it, Uh,
29:13
Speaker 1: I'm not loving it as much even though I did
29:15
Speaker 1: already pet it heavily. Unfortunately, did you really Yeah? The
29:19
Speaker 1: fact that it opened at three, I was just like,
29:22
Speaker 1: oh man, this is such a trap game. But the
29:25
Speaker 1: bet bets are coming in on New England, so it's
29:27
Speaker 1: not that much of it. It feels like not that
29:29
Speaker 1: much of a trap game. If like the public might
29:32
Speaker 1: be a little wise to this one not seeing this
29:34
Speaker 1: fishy number. So I don't hate your prospects of the
29:36
Speaker 1: Dolphins two and a half, like that's that's a good number.
29:39
Speaker 1: But we're both on opposite sides. We can just stay
29:41
Speaker 1: away from it. Well, look, you know, you can always
29:44
Speaker 1: convince me, but I do always love. One of the
29:48
Speaker 1: reasons I like coming over to your side is so
29:50
Speaker 1: I can't send a text on Saturday afternoon when we're
29:52
Speaker 1: losing that game and be like, you, motherfucker, you just
29:55
Speaker 1: cost us. Because that that and sort of being able
29:58
Speaker 1: to take advantage of for a podcast content two of
30:02
Speaker 1: my greatest joys. Um No, that's the best part of
30:06
Speaker 1: my life. It's ah, I've worked so hard that the
30:10
Speaker 1: right people got this far. Just this some guy on
30:14
Speaker 1: Twitter to make fun of me and then have Chad
30:16
Speaker 1: make funny on the text it's it's the best. That's
30:19
Speaker 1: what I told you, like half the time. I don't
30:21
Speaker 1: even message these people anymore on Twitter. I'm like at
30:23
Speaker 1: the point now, especially with COVID, I just instant black man.
30:26
Speaker 1: Some would be like, uh oh, like I had the
30:29
Speaker 1: under last night. They over went over by like fifty points.
30:31
Speaker 1: I think they hit the over just in the fourth
30:33
Speaker 1: quarter alone and points and not even funny joke. I
30:37
Speaker 1: was just like, yeah, but you also had the under
30:40
Speaker 1: last night, and it's just like all right, instant blocky,
30:42
Speaker 1: like no crap. I know I had the under. I
30:44
Speaker 1: lost actual real money on it. I don't just throw
30:47
Speaker 1: things on Twitter and go yeah, that's that's it for
30:49
Speaker 1: the night. I'm done for that, no bets needed. But yeah, man,
30:54
Speaker 1: that this game I can already tell like the more.
30:57
Speaker 1: Look at New England Dolphins. You're probably right, Dolphins probably
31:01
Speaker 1: a hard a smart side. I feel like I might
31:02
Speaker 1: be a little too buch of a sharp here take annoying.
31:05
Speaker 1: You might be overthinking it. I like what I'm doing,
31:08
Speaker 1: don't overthink. Speaking of overthinking, the Jaguars are gonna go
31:12
Speaker 1: on the road and they're like two touchdown dogs to
31:15
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Right now, and I know the Jacks have
31:18
Speaker 1: been in the sharp side for everybody for the past
31:20
Speaker 1: few weeks. Do you have to pay with the Jacks here? Yeah,
31:24
Speaker 1: we'll keep We'll keep this one quick. Well, I'm gonna
31:27
Speaker 1: be on the Jacks with everyone listening. Don't bet Jacks
31:30
Speaker 1: either passing this game or take the Ravens or something
31:33
Speaker 1: that teaser. It's just it's the Ravens, but they just
31:36
Speaker 1: dominate bad teams. But this is a huge number for
31:40
Speaker 1: a Jackson team that they have weapons on offense, they
31:43
Speaker 1: can score. So I'll take the four team, but I
31:46
Speaker 1: do not recommend to anybody. No, it's not it's not
31:49
Speaker 1: a contest play in anyway. All right, let's move on
31:53
Speaker 1: to the late games. Let's start Jets visiting the Rams
31:56
Speaker 1: because this number. Look, two weeks ago, we were all
31:59
Speaker 1: over the Jets. Didn't put him in the contest because
32:01
Speaker 1: you know, while we listen to the guy sitting on
32:03
Speaker 1: his the couch who can see the situation and uh
32:07
Speaker 1: knows exactly what to take. You don't want to do that. Um,
32:10
Speaker 1: But now the Jets are seventeen pointing dogs visiting the Rams,
32:16
Speaker 1: who to me, they are a team that's gotten better,
32:20
Speaker 1: Like we got off the Ramps for a little while,
32:23
Speaker 1: but they've just consistently like improved in spite of Jared Goff. Obviously,
32:29
Speaker 1: we're not fucking betting the Jets plus seventeen in the county,
32:34
Speaker 1: but we're not gonna get the Rams and nine of
32:35
Speaker 1: seventeen either. Yeah, it's another another past game where like
32:40
Speaker 1: I'll be on the Jets, but just not fun, not
32:43
Speaker 1: a good bet. There's no Lonch behind other than that's
32:45
Speaker 1: a huge number, and well you just said it's true
32:49
Speaker 1: about the Ramps. It seems like Cam Akers, the running back,
32:53
Speaker 1: has really sparked that team where he's like they're Todd
32:55
Speaker 1: Gurley now where they just the whole offense runs through
32:58
Speaker 1: him and golf does this little role out, this little
33:00
Speaker 1: plaction passed, doesn't turn the ball over and they just
33:02
Speaker 1: win games. So right there where that we we missed
33:06
Speaker 1: the window on the Rams, but it's too big when
33:09
Speaker 1: I'm going to take It's pretty impressive how Sean McVeigh
33:13
Speaker 1: has completely transformed that team, and like really from that
33:18
Speaker 1: offense that was seemed to be record setting and into
33:23
Speaker 1: a ball control offense where Jared Goff is sort of
33:26
Speaker 1: even though he's making thirty million dollars a year. Just
33:30
Speaker 1: basically don't throw throw a pick in your team wins
33:33
Speaker 1: and Aaron Donald is ridiculous. Yeah, it's It's like when
33:38
Speaker 1: you do those fantasy drafts where you just go stars
33:40
Speaker 1: and scrubs that they literally just have Darnald Ramsey and
33:45
Speaker 1: a bunch of scrubs pretty much. But it works. They
33:48
Speaker 1: just have a ton of weapons on wide receivers and
33:50
Speaker 1: the running back came makers, so all the pieces around golf.
33:53
Speaker 1: It makes it work. So dude, listen, we started off
33:55
Speaker 1: pretty hot and with a lot of games that we liked,
33:58
Speaker 1: and now we've had a little of a drive spell
34:00
Speaker 1: and we're heading into the late afternoon games and um,
34:04
Speaker 1: we've got four games left to talk about, including Eagles
34:10
Speaker 1: Cardinals Jalen Hurts on the road, first road start against
34:16
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray and a Cardinals team that is flying towards
34:20
Speaker 1: the playoffs with an Eagles team that a lot of
34:25
Speaker 1: people think is flying south for the winter. Well, we're
34:30
Speaker 1: not dead yet. Uh is it a die hardy was fan?
34:35
Speaker 1: How dare you and let me be here? Biggles Biggles
34:41
Speaker 1: or Eggles Eiggles? Uh, they might be dead. I like
34:46
Speaker 1: Arizona here, hurts, great win at home. Now he's going
34:51
Speaker 1: on the road, and that that game, he didn't play perfect,
34:54
Speaker 1: but pretty pretty close to it. He pulled down and
34:57
Speaker 1: run it when he needed to, and then he'd make
34:58
Speaker 1: big plays passing. And it's just a simple situational play
35:04
Speaker 1: where Arizona is a better team there fighting for the playoffs.
35:09
Speaker 1: I know the Eagles are too, but hurts on the
35:11
Speaker 1: road and first start under seven. It feels like the
35:15
Speaker 1: Egos should get more points in this. And I'm looking
35:18
Speaker 1: at a Cardinals team that they're not going to be
35:19
Speaker 1: getting tons of money just because people still are unsure
35:22
Speaker 1: about them. You know, they just beat the Giants, so
35:25
Speaker 1: public public dollar of the weeks, it's gonna be the Eagles.
35:28
Speaker 1: I'm cool with fading that. Taking the Cardinals here. They
35:31
Speaker 1: are getting all the bets right now, the bets coming
35:34
Speaker 1: in on the Philadelphia Eagles and the coming in of
35:39
Speaker 1: that Cardinal, So you're right, that's gonna be Wouldn't it
35:42
Speaker 1: be great if we made it into weeks sixteen in
35:46
Speaker 1: good shape and two of the five wins we can
35:50
Speaker 1: get this weekend are betting against the Eagles and the Bears.
35:53
Speaker 1: Just shows how professional in our Chad, professionals more than anything,
35:58
Speaker 1: this next game, this next scam. So I'm putting the
36:00
Speaker 1: cards mindy six on the West the next game the
36:04
Speaker 1: world beating Chiefs who looked better than they did, his
36:06
Speaker 1: Super Bowl champs, visiting the New Orleans Saints who just
36:13
Speaker 1: got beat up, who were have just sort of lost
36:18
Speaker 1: their edge as the number one seed in the NFC.
36:20
Speaker 1: There are three point dogs at home. Big balls better
36:27
Speaker 1: the week, big ball better the week. No, come on,
36:38
Speaker 1: you gotta you gotta back to back the Chiefs Saints
36:42
Speaker 1: just had their first loss, and months like it. I
36:46
Speaker 1: love it, Chad, uh. It's just a smart number. Three
36:50
Speaker 1: everyone like we talked about all the time, money lines, teasers,
36:54
Speaker 1: all of it, argument on the Chiefs, and just like
36:57
Speaker 1: last week, they got back door and broken the same
37:01
Speaker 1: thing for this week. We like the Saints here because
37:03
Speaker 1: it's a smart number. And you for catching a home team,
37:07
Speaker 1: like we talk all the time, get a small percentage
37:09
Speaker 1: of the bet and the road teams getting all this money.
37:12
Speaker 1: I don't think you just fade and more often not,
37:15
Speaker 1: you're gonna be right. And this is a prime situation
37:17
Speaker 1: where everybody is coming in on the Chiefs so we
37:21
Speaker 1: love the Saints, buddy, don't overthink it. No, you're right,
37:24
Speaker 1: You're you're listen, you're doing the right thing. As I
37:28
Speaker 1: have said, someone would say it's a milmanism. You gotta
37:32
Speaker 1: make gross bets if you want big gross profits. Chad
37:38
Speaker 1: Millman is proud of himself. And what's more fun. You're
37:42
Speaker 1: gonna have more fun than the Chiefs, and knowing that
37:44
Speaker 1: you're on the public study, you're having fun riding with
37:47
Speaker 1: the Sharps and betting the Staints and hating yourself when
37:49
Speaker 1: they're down one three in the first far looks smart.
37:53
Speaker 1: Let's go with the Saints. And you're right also, like
37:55
Speaker 1: we we have made a lot of mistakes. This you're
37:57
Speaker 1: betting against what our perception was instead of betting on
38:01
Speaker 1: what the situation and the numbers are telling us. We
38:04
Speaker 1: are getting a short home dog where the preponderance of
38:08
Speaker 1: money is on the other side proponantive bets. I mean,
38:11
Speaker 1: is it on the other side. Same situation with the Broncos.
38:14
Speaker 1: Like that's when you got to pull the trigger. I'm
38:18
Speaker 1: with you. You got you got big balls, I got
38:22
Speaker 1: big balls. Here we go. The Browns bad beat that
38:28
Speaker 1: was rough last night against the Giants, who I can't stand.
38:33
Speaker 1: We've had like three teams this year that have burned us,
38:35
Speaker 1: the Giants, the Browns, and the Broncos. And I feel
38:38
Speaker 1: like the Broncos are a team like that burned us.
38:40
Speaker 1: But there's still the team you bet on, the Browns
38:43
Speaker 1: and the Giants we swore ourselves off of. Like so,
38:47
Speaker 1: so we've got a situation with the Giants. The kind
38:51
Speaker 1: gets wrapped all this up. We got a situation. You've
38:55
Speaker 1: worked on Jersey Shore with the Giants. They're the team
38:58
Speaker 1: in Jersey that was Jersey. Sure, you're in Jersey now.
39:02
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I know what you're gonna say. Ah situation.
39:08
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, man, I'm shocked that it's this big. I
39:13
Speaker 1: get it. The Browns played great against the Ravens. They
39:16
Speaker 1: scored all these points. Baker looked good. They're running it.
39:19
Speaker 1: But the Giants are different animals. They can stop the run.
39:22
Speaker 1: They're good against the past. The Ravens are just banged
39:26
Speaker 1: up that that that was a body back game for them.
39:28
Speaker 1: They had no one left in their secondary. So you're
39:31
Speaker 1: telling me the public's coming in on the Browns once again.
39:34
Speaker 1: And we got the Giants at home four and a half.
39:38
Speaker 1: Come on, Chad. It's it's we're getting super ugly this
39:43
Speaker 1: week with these home dogs. But we keep talking about
39:45
Speaker 1: it's a good situational play. You take this home dog.
39:48
Speaker 1: This big number, by the way, it is a The
39:52
Speaker 1: Cowboys are three three and a half point dogs at
39:55
Speaker 1: home against the Niners. Sent of the bets, the public
39:59
Speaker 1: coming in a the Niners, the Giants four point home
40:03
Speaker 1: dogs coming in on the Browns. If we're like, it's
40:08
Speaker 1: very possible, but we have to end up taking all
40:10
Speaker 1: home dogs, getting the bets or less. We could be
40:15
Speaker 1: on the Broncos, we could be on the Saints, we
40:20
Speaker 1: could be on the Giants. That would be professional betting
40:25
Speaker 1: right there. I'll put it in. I don't hate it
40:28
Speaker 1: like Danny Dimes, like he's just a terrible quarterback at
40:31
Speaker 1: this point. Don't fumble the ball like you know what
40:34
Speaker 1: they're fucking coming after you. Just protect the ball like that.
40:37
Speaker 1: It's it's the opposite of professional quarterbacking. Alex Smith is
40:40
Speaker 1: a professional quarterback who wins you games because he knows
40:43
Speaker 1: how to play the game. Danny Dimes is a guy
40:45
Speaker 1: who all these years did and he's been there long enough,
40:48
Speaker 1: has not figured out rule number one, don't fucking turn
40:51
Speaker 1: the ball over. If you're a professional quarterback, a man Chad,
40:55
Speaker 1: it's fired up off of his fight milk fired up,
40:58
Speaker 1: you do want even more money? I guess what, We've
41:03
Speaker 1: got a great idea for you. No, let it be
41:07
Speaker 1: said here. There's weeks where I put tons and tons
41:10
Speaker 1: of time in the different games and trying to find
41:12
Speaker 1: the best edge in situation, and then there's weeks like
41:15
Speaker 1: this week where you can literally just let the sharpest
41:18
Speaker 1: guy in the entire world do the work for you,
41:19
Speaker 1: which are the bookmakers. They're they're the sharpest linemakers. So
41:23
Speaker 1: they're they're telling you something. They give you these home
41:26
Speaker 1: dogs and everyone's coming out on the favorites. On the
41:28
Speaker 1: other side, the line is not going up. They're just
41:30
Speaker 1: letting it sit there. It's it's a very tailtale signed
41:33
Speaker 1: by them. So that's one of these games, like we
41:36
Speaker 1: don't have to play all these home dogs, but you
41:38
Speaker 1: can you can believe that there's at least two of
41:40
Speaker 1: them in there for us this week. There's just too
41:41
Speaker 1: much value on these home dogs this week. Jesus, you
41:44
Speaker 1: sounded like so fucking philly when you just said we
41:46
Speaker 1: don't have to play all these home dogs. Your accent
41:50
Speaker 1: just came out. Yeah, what's the what's the Chicago accent?
41:55
Speaker 1: Because you're obviously a suburb guy holding your hands up
41:58
Speaker 1: to the cameras are soft, You're not You're not Chicago guy.
42:01
Speaker 1: Oh I would if my fingers weren't all broken from
42:09
Speaker 1: from being still fragile and playing sports with my kids,
42:12
Speaker 1: then I would hold my fingers up to the camera.
42:15
Speaker 1: But my hands are grotesque right now. Chicago is like,
42:18
Speaker 1: you know, it's like the Grabowski's, It's like, you know,
42:23
Speaker 1: the longer aids, and like, uh, I can't even do it.
42:28
Speaker 1: Some people say that I have a Chicago accent. I don't.
42:30
Speaker 1: And then you listen to my dad and he's he
42:33
Speaker 1: is full on Chicago accent. Grew up in the city,
42:37
Speaker 1: you know, moved to the city, moved to the suburbs
42:40
Speaker 1: when when he and my mom had me, and like,
42:45
Speaker 1: you know, he's the guy. I say, Dad, I need
42:48
Speaker 1: to get to X anywhere within a hundred mile radius
42:52
Speaker 1: of the city. He can tell me like the most
42:55
Speaker 1: exact shortcut. To me, that was always what a dad does.
42:58
Speaker 1: Like dad knows how to get anywhere in your city
43:02
Speaker 1: through the most like arcane streets. That to me is
43:06
Speaker 1: like Chicago. That's what I think about when I think
43:09
Speaker 1: about Chicago. Are you an only child? No, that's shocking. Okay, sister,
43:16
Speaker 1: that makes so that's making more sense though, So you
43:19
Speaker 1: can you do off the vibe that no one bullied
43:21
Speaker 1: you enough. You needed to be bullied more as a kid.
43:23
Speaker 1: So it looks like you dodge that bullet and the
43:25
Speaker 1: older brothers. I don't even know how to take that,
43:29
Speaker 1: meaning like I'd be less confident if I had been
43:34
Speaker 1: bullied more. Oh no confidence. Yeah, it's just a getting bullet.
43:40
Speaker 1: It brings you back to square one. It's just like
43:42
Speaker 1: it's it checks ne ego at the door, but no chat.
43:45
Speaker 1: We all love you for you. It's it's it just
43:47
Speaker 1: makes perfect sense. I thought you were the only child,
43:49
Speaker 1: but it makes sense you have a sister. I have
43:51
Speaker 1: a sister who's seven years younger than me. Oh wow, yeah,
43:57
Speaker 1: same marriage. You know, they tried for a few just
44:00
Speaker 1: wasn't working, and then all of a sudden miracle there
44:02
Speaker 1: comes The point is you sounded like Philly. Some people
44:06
Speaker 1: would say that sounds like Chicago. And we got a
44:08
Speaker 1: situation in our hands, which is the new York fucking
44:11
Speaker 1: Football Giants at plus four? Can we can we ignore
44:15
Speaker 1: the Steelers and the Bengals, like we're not putting into
44:17
Speaker 1: the contest their thirteen point favorite in Cincinnati, the Steelers are.
44:21
Speaker 1: We'll see how the Sunday goes, because this is if
44:25
Speaker 1: all these dogs we're talking about right now are covering
44:27
Speaker 1: at home, I'll have to I'll have to play the
44:30
Speaker 1: Bengals because well we just talked about there getting Steelers
44:34
Speaker 1: gonna get any percent of the money, eighty percent of
44:35
Speaker 1: the ticket. No one's gonna be been the Bengals. It's
44:38
Speaker 1: just there, horrible. They're not well coached. They got nothing
44:42
Speaker 1: about Joe Burrown. Now, it's it's bad there. But yeah,
44:47
Speaker 1: exactly like you said, we're not putting this in, so
44:49
Speaker 1: there's no point of even breaking it down. But I'll
44:52
Speaker 1: be on the Bengals if if all things go well
44:54
Speaker 1: this Sunday. Alright, So listen, we gotta put in five
44:57
Speaker 1: picks this week. We have about ten games that we like,
44:59
Speaker 1: we gotta side potentially by Saturday morning. Um, I do
45:03
Speaker 1: want to get to your Survivor picks, and I want
45:05
Speaker 1: to get to the winner of this week's phrase that
45:06
Speaker 1: pays who wants some money this week? Right now, let
45:11
Speaker 1: me just let me just outline the games that we
45:14
Speaker 1: like so far that we'll have to choose um Broncos
45:18
Speaker 1: plus six and a half, Panthers plus eight and a half,
45:21
Speaker 1: Vikes minus three or three and a half Cowboys plus
45:25
Speaker 1: three and a half. We like the Cards minus six,
45:28
Speaker 1: Saints plus three, Giants plus four, And if we're gonna
45:32
Speaker 1: follow the wise guy rules, if we're gonna do what
45:36
Speaker 1: we think is right, then we cannot avoid the Cowboys,
45:41
Speaker 1: the Saints, or the Giants, all home dogs in which
45:47
Speaker 1: a majority like more or the money is coming in
45:51
Speaker 1: on the road favorites. And let me just check right
45:54
Speaker 1: now on the Broncos, because right now the Broncos are
45:59
Speaker 1: knock quite there yet it's six of the money coming
46:02
Speaker 1: in on the bill, so they don't fall into that yet.
46:05
Speaker 1: So we got some decisions to make, and we might
46:06
Speaker 1: have to make some decisions on Saturday, because we also
46:10
Speaker 1: we do love the Panthers plus eight and a half
46:12
Speaker 1: against the Packers. Man, we got a lot of decisions
46:14
Speaker 1: to make, a lot of decisions, and we're maybe because
46:18
Speaker 1: it's twenty there are no fans, but every year we
46:22
Speaker 1: have wonky weeks and end the year like there's always
46:24
Speaker 1: one or two weeks here at the end that are
46:25
Speaker 1: just very weird. We're weird things that are gonna happen.
46:28
Speaker 1: Teams are gonna lose that just shouldn't lose, and we
46:31
Speaker 1: haven't had that really yet. So we'll see this weekend.
46:34
Speaker 1: It's lining up that way with all these home dogs.
46:36
Speaker 1: Like you just said, so here what we can we
46:39
Speaker 1: can break down what you want to do for survivor.
46:42
Speaker 1: It's it's we're down only five of us left in
46:45
Speaker 1: this big money one. Yeah, we had a couple of
46:49
Speaker 1: guys get knocked out on the Saints because we have
46:51
Speaker 1: to pick two. So this week is an easy one
46:55
Speaker 1: where the Rams I have them still against the Jets.
46:58
Speaker 1: That's an easy pick. But the second one has just
47:00
Speaker 1: been hard. I've been looking, I've been looking and trying
47:04
Speaker 1: to think of like what team to put in, and
47:07
Speaker 1: I went through the list of teams I had left,
47:10
Speaker 1: and it's brutal because it's teams I think are gonna
47:13
Speaker 1: get upset. So like I have the bills left that
47:15
Speaker 1: could play them, but I'm I'm scared exactly. I'm scared
47:18
Speaker 1: that Denver is gonna upset them because that's such a
47:20
Speaker 1: bad spot. Vikings. You chose the Vikings already. We survived
47:27
Speaker 1: with them against the Jags, the last one left and
47:31
Speaker 1: it's not great, or the forty nine ers when we
47:35
Speaker 1: just talked about how we like Dallas so exactly, it's
47:38
Speaker 1: gonna be really tough. I'll have to put a Twitter
47:40
Speaker 1: poll out and see what people are going to vote
47:42
Speaker 1: on because I can't find the last one. That's tough, man,
47:46
Speaker 1: I feel for you. We'll have to get one of
47:48
Speaker 1: the rams. Obviously, we'll have to get the second answer
47:50
Speaker 1: from Twitter and you'll share that at Steinmon Hunter Tan
47:54
Speaker 1: don't forget. You can figure out you can follow all
47:56
Speaker 1: of the picks. We end up putting in Um into
47:59
Speaker 1: the contest, I'll put him in the app follow at
48:02
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter in the Action Network gap Um. We'll have
48:06
Speaker 1: to make a lot of decisions. We'll have to narrow down,
48:07
Speaker 1: but I know we're leaning towards the home dogs. Getting
48:11
Speaker 1: not very many bets, Simon is time to give away
48:15
Speaker 1: some money. Last week, we have fans to rate and
48:17
Speaker 1: review the podcast. Those who did and use the winning
48:21
Speaker 1: phrases in the review were eligible to win up to
48:23
Speaker 1: five dollars. We had loads and loads of reviews. Matt
48:26
Speaker 1: Mitchell slacked me and said we had more reviews than
48:29
Speaker 1: ever before. Thank you for that. Uh. In a second
48:34
Speaker 1: we will reveal the winner, but first we are doing
48:36
Speaker 1: another phrase that pays contests from now through the end
48:39
Speaker 1: of the season. The winner earns one dollars for every
48:43
Speaker 1: win Simon and I have in the contest. We will
48:46
Speaker 1: match that number with the donation to the winner's favorite charity.
48:49
Speaker 1: Go rate and review the podcast using the phrase Simon says,
48:53
Speaker 1: I Am indestructible, and we will randomly choose the winner
48:57
Speaker 1: to get that cash and then win of last week's contest. Sorry,
49:02
Speaker 1: we only want you a couple hundred bucks. Mike Jenkins. Mike,
49:08
Speaker 1: please reach out to Matt dot Mitchell at Action network
49:12
Speaker 1: dot com for your prize. Here is the review. Simon
49:17
Speaker 1: stays be my companion. Five stars. This podcast is just
49:23
Speaker 1: like finding out Machetti is good for you. It's life changing.
49:27
Speaker 1: The gambling gods have come down from the heavens like
49:30
Speaker 1: a Patriots cover against the Bills to deliver us. Chad
49:34
Speaker 1: Norman and Silent Hunter Chat and Simon will give you
49:37
Speaker 1: insights about every NFL game that will have you winning
49:41
Speaker 1: every single week. These are guys who won't let you down,
49:45
Speaker 1: especially Matt Mitchell, who isn't afraid of taking a full
49:50
Speaker 1: handful of dog food and compare the taste with pinpoint accuracy.
49:55
Speaker 1: It's the Cliff Kingsbury's coaching abilities and that's why Simon says,
50:00
Speaker 1: be my companion, Mike Jenkins. That is a most excellent review.
50:07
Speaker 1: Please go rate and review the podcast. Don't forget to
50:09
Speaker 1: use the phrase Winston Cash. Simon says, I am indestructible.
50:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman for Simon Hunter. This has been
50:15
Speaker 1: the favorite from the Action Network. Download from Apple, podcast
50:18
Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Until next time,
50:21
Speaker 1: I Love you.