Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 183 - 12/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 183 - 12/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 183 of the All Systems.
• 0:24
  Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Monday, a new week. Begins.
• 0:38
  We're one week closer to. Christmas.
• 0:40
  One week closer to New Year's end of the year, and let's see
• 0:43
  if we can finish. Up the year on a hot note
• 0:45
  because. Boy, do we need it.
• 0:46
  After some. Bad beats continue to.
• 0:48
  Haunt us. I'm still trying to figure out
• 0:50
  what's going on with the drones. It's becoming more interesting.
• 0:53
  By the day, my newest theory is it's probably the US government
• 0:57
  testing out something or doing something.
• 0:59
  But what are they doing? We still don't know.
• 1:02
  So I'll keep you updated on that, but of course going to get
• 1:04
  right back. To the sports betting world,
• 1:06
  because I do have. A6 pack of sweats for you.
• 1:09
  Including. 4 bets on Monday Night Football.
• 1:12
  If you didn't know, there's a double header tonight.
• 1:13
  So two different games. Similar situations here with
• 1:16
  inflated line contrarian value plays.
• 1:19
  As well as a couple pass catchers that I'm targeting to
• 1:21
  go. Over their receiving prop.
• 1:23
  Then one bet in college hoops and it was a very sharp dog to
• 1:26
  fave line move and then also one.
• 1:28
  Play in the NHL. Looking at a road favorite.
• 1:30
  With some really good steam. And a new.
• 1:32
  Goaltender who was very good in his debut and I'm hoping he's
• 1:35
  good again tonight. So 6 back overall.
• 1:38
  Let's see if we can. Scratch and claw and.
• 1:39
  Find a way to get. Four or more.
• 1:41
  Now looking. Back toward the weekend guys.
• 1:43
  It started off pretty good. Friday night 3 and O.
• 1:46
  Had a good night there. With Weber State and Nebraska
• 1:48
  both coming out on top. As well as the Wizards,
• 1:51
  Cleveland, Cleveland Cavaliers Under 232 and a.
• 1:54
  Half, so that was nice, but then Saturday O.
• 1:57
  And two, with the plays we talked about, Army Navy sadly
• 2:00
  went over and then Billy Corntio let us down in the.
• 2:03
  UFC. But you may have read the Sharp.
• 2:05
  Report added a couple. Plays to Juice Reel which?
• 2:08
  You can always find those best bets on the Juice Reel app under
• 2:11
  ASG under score podcast. But nice winner with Belmont.
• 2:14
  As well as Dayton. Dayton was a great.
• 2:17
  Kind of fade the trendy dog you know reverse line move on ranked
• 2:20
  versus rank situation so that was a really the highlight of
• 2:23
  Saturday the. One that was really frustrating.
• 2:25
  Though was the Arizona Wildcats. I don't know if anyone played
• 2:27
  them but they were super sharp. And they only scored two.
• 2:30
  Points in the last 7 minutes, money line them and they end up
• 2:35
  losing by I think like 3 or 4 points.
• 2:37
  But two points in the last 7 minutes?
• 2:39
  Absolutely brutal. But hey, bad beats are what
• 2:41
  we're dealing with right now. And then Sunday in the NFL.
• 2:45
  Oh, and five. No way to sugarcoat it.
• 2:47
  None of these. Dogs are barking.
• 2:48
  The favorites you play aren't coming through.
• 2:51
  You look at the Carolina Panthers, Sharp is attack great.
• 2:54
  CLV there. That line close around 3.
• 2:57
  Panthers end up losing outright to to the Cowboys.
• 3:01
  And made a bunch of. Mistakes, fumbling,
• 3:02
  interceptions. That thing was just pathetic.
• 3:05
  Mac Jones getting ready to cover that 3 1/2.
• 3:07
  What happens? Aaron Rodgers throws 2.
• 3:09
  Different bombs, 2 touchdowns late.
• 3:11
  To crush us with the Jags plus 3 1/2 my Patriots.
• 3:15
  Boy, it's a dumpster fire with the Patriots, right?
• 3:17
  Now, but CLV they're. Getting 6 1/2 closes at 6.
• 3:21
  Draad Mayo. After the game they asked him
• 3:22
  why. Didn't you sneak, Matt Mac
• 3:24
  Jones? Jesus, why didn't you sneak?
• 3:26
  Drake May on the one yard line they get.
• 3:28
  Stuffed 2. Two times in a row and his
• 3:30
  answer was. You said it, not me.
• 3:33
  So basically throwing under the bus Alex Van Pelt.
• 3:35
  And that's a huge. Storyline in in New England, if
• 3:38
  you're a Patriots fan like me, Mayo is getting crushed, and I
• 3:40
  think deservedly so. He doesn't know what he's doing.
• 3:43
  The Lions, man. They're a world beater, and then
• 3:45
  we play. Them and they get rolled and
• 3:47
  cannot stop. Josh Allen.
• 3:48
  But the coup de grace. The one that hurt so much was
• 3:52
  the Colts. The Colts, man, I don't know if
• 3:54
  anyone notices, but they are winning the game.
• 3:56
  Had them plus 4 1/2. They close +4.
• 3:59
  There's an opportunity there to go up 20 to 7.
• 4:01
  All Jonathan Taylor has to do is hold on to the ball and walk
• 4:04
  right. Into the end zone.
• 4:06
  But what does he do? Like a complete.
• 4:07
  Idiot. He drops the ball at.
• 4:10
  The one inch yard line instead of a touchdown.
• 4:12
  No points. It's a touchback.
• 4:14
  Colts would have gone up. 20 to 7 instead, no.
• 4:17
  Points. They they have a turnover and
• 4:20
  then they attempt this ridiculous.
• 4:22
  This is when it feels like when, just when things are going your
• 4:24
  way and you're losing. It's just like how.
• 4:26
  How can we? I always make the joke and it's
• 4:28
  really not a joke, but sometimes all you can do is joke.
• 4:30
  When the equip when the opposite or alternative.
• 4:33
  Would be crying but. How can you?
• 4:35
  How can you hurt me? You know what?
• 4:37
  In what? Other ways can you torture?
• 4:38
  Me and when I saw that that trick play pass where Richardson
• 4:44
  threw it over to. AD Mitchell and Mitchell threw.
• 4:46
  It back over, it picked off, you know, pick 6, technically it's a
• 4:50
  fumble, but I saw that play and if you know the play, you know
• 4:53
  what I'm talking about. But just just brutal there.
• 4:56
  So guys, I can't sugarcoat it. It's going on a little bit over
• 4:59
  a week here other than a three and O on Friday and there's 1-3
• 5:02
  and two day in there. It just feels like the gambling
• 5:04
  gods are torturing us. So again, we're we're going to
• 5:07
  stick with it. We're going to keep grinding,
• 5:09
  we're going to keep flat betting.
• 5:10
  And I, I can tell you this just from the standpoint of having
• 5:13
  been there before, you know, I've been betting on sports
• 5:15
  every single day for I'm 37, so since I was around. 21 and
• 5:22
  there's going to be. Stretches where this happens.
• 5:24
  A week? Two weeks.
• 5:26
  I've had a bad month before we've also.
• 5:28
  Had great weeks and great months.
• 5:29
  So you know, again, it's. It's very easy to get
• 5:31
  discouraged. I am too.
• 5:33
  But instead of punching a hole in the window.
• 5:35
  Smashing your TV. Throwing.
• 5:37
  Your hands up and saying. Betting is too hard.
• 5:39
  We might as well just quit. We're never going to quit.
• 5:41
  We're going to keep grinding and we're going to.
• 5:43
  Let this this storm cloud hopefully pass us by, but but
• 5:46
  again, I I admit this has been a rough storm cloud here recently.
• 5:50
  That being said, keep. Keep.
• 5:52
  A positive note here. The sun came up today.
• 5:55
  We still can bet on. Sports, there's still sharp bets
• 5:58
  out there so. Let's see if we can get it back
• 6:00
  and start a winning streak. Turn our fortunes around.
• 6:02
  So I want to start off with the doubleheader tier tonight.
• 6:06
  I noticed a few days ago I was like, man, doubleheader, I'll
• 6:08
  take it. At least they gave me an 8:00
• 6:10
  game and an 830. Game I would have loved the 7:00
• 6:12
  and like a 10:00 but. At least.
• 6:14
  You give me 1/2. Hour, you know, kind of cushion
• 6:16
  here, but anyway. Let's start off with Chicago.
• 6:18
  Minnesota, we'll give you the market.
• 6:19
  Movement. Here, as well as a prop bet to
• 6:21
  target. So going in this one, the Bears
• 6:24
  4:00 and 9:00. They dropped seven straight.
• 6:26
  Started off pretty decent and really played or just not not.
• 6:30
  Performed. Recently, having lost seven
• 6:32
  straight, fired their coach, didn't get that new coach bump
• 6:35
  and they just got rolled by the Niners. 38 to 13.
• 6:38
  Lost and did not cover as a three-point Rd. dog.
• 6:41
  Meanwhile, the Vikes, 11 and 216 in a row, just crushed the
• 6:44
  Falcons. 4221 easily covering. As a six point home.
• 6:48
  Favorite SO. What have we seen across the
• 6:50
  market here? Well.
• 6:50
  Minnesota open this game around A6.
• 6:52
  Point home favorite and early smart.
• 6:54
  Money did lay the. Points with the Vikings.
• 6:56
  Vikings -6. Was then put up.
• 6:58
  All the way to -7 but now that we've gotten to seven, starting
• 7:01
  to see some buyback here, a lot of these.
• 7:03
  Plus sevens for. Chicago are juiced up plus. 7 -,
• 7:06
  115. -120 I'm starting. To see a couple.
• 7:08
  Books get back down to 6 1/2, so that's a great sign.
• 7:12
  So I jumped on Chicago +7, a little bit of buyback with that
• 7:15
  7 again. Juiced up and maybe falling.
• 7:17
  Back down to 6 1/2. So if you like Chicago, you
• 7:20
  should be able to get that 7 very important they lose.
• 7:22
  By 7 we got to push. We can't get a. 6 1/2 and lose
• 7:25
  by 7 and lose. It is available here and.
• 7:28
  What I really like is that. This is the ultimate gross.
• 7:30
  Disgusting play. So.
• 7:32
  The fact that Minnesota is such a popular bet tonight. 80.
• 7:35
  Percent of spread bets at DraftKings and 72% of spread
• 7:40
  bets at Circa are both on Minnesota.
• 7:42
  So just from a contrarian standpoint.
• 7:45
  We've seen value here. To go the other way against the
• 7:47
  public, Minnesota and take Chicago.
• 7:49
  And we have a little bit element of sharp.
• 7:51
  Action with that buyback 7. Maybe coming?
• 7:53
  Back down to 6 1/2. I also like the bet split at
• 7:56
  circa. In particular at circa.
• 7:58
  Only 28% of. Bets on the spread are going
• 8:01
  Chicago. But they do.
• 8:01
  Account for 67% of dollars. So pretty good low.
• 8:05
  Bets higher dollars bet. Split tells me the.
• 8:07
  Wise guys out in Vegas are digging, you know, Chicago here
• 8:10
  in the points again. Got to get the seven.
• 8:12
  And then we. Layer in some system matches Rd.
• 8:14
  dogs. Getting 6 1/2.
• 8:16
  Points or more? They're 20. 6 and 17 ATS this
• 8:19
  year 61. Percent been a good bet.
• 8:22
  Divisional dogs we like. Divisional dogs in general.
• 8:24
  Because of the built in familiarity, levelling the
• 8:26
  playing field, benefiting the team, getting points.
• 8:29
  But then also if you look at divisional dogs.
• 8:31
  Getting 6 points or? More they're. 18 and six against
• 8:35
  the spread this season, they've been really good.
• 8:37
  And you guys all remember this system, dog off a blowout loss
• 8:39
  of 20 points or more. We saw, of course, Chicago get
• 8:42
  rolled against the 49ers last week.
• 8:44
  By low on those teams, they're 114 and 90.
• 8:47
  Four against the spread, 55 percent, 6% ROI since. 2017.
• 8:52
  And then this. Is really, you know, test case.
• 8:54
  You open the sports betting. Encyclopedia up This is the
• 8:57
  epitome of buy low sell. High Chicago, an unpopular dog
• 9:01
  that's lost seven straight against the Vikings, a popular
• 9:04
  home favorite who have won six in a row.
• 9:06
  So just from the standpoint of, you know, maybe Chicago is not
• 9:08
  as bad as we. Think maybe Minnesota isn't
• 9:10
  quite as good as we think the value to me is.
• 9:12
  Buying low in Chicago and selling high on Minnesota now I
• 9:15
  didn't play. The total but I did notice that
• 9:18
  open 42 1/2 got up to. 44 1/2 Then you had some under money
• 9:21
  come in, drop it back down to. 43 1/2 which?
• 9:24
  Is where it's at right now if you look.
• 9:26
  At the bet. Splits DraftKings and FanDuel.
• 9:30
  Are kind of telling two different stories so this.
• 9:32
  Is kind of like the classic, like layoff and don't play.
• 9:35
  Because at DraftKings, the Overs getting 62.
• 9:37
  Percent bets 69% dollars, but at Circa.
• 9:41
  The overs getting 84. Percent of bets, but only. 62%
• 9:44
  of dollars, so it looks kind of like.
• 9:46
  A little sharp over at at DraftKings, but a little sharp
• 9:50
  under at Circa. Keep in mind, though, Monday
• 9:52
  Night Football overs. Are 12:00 and 5:00 this?
• 9:54
  Year 71%, however. Both teams are 8 and five to the
• 9:58
  under so just too many conflicting.
• 10:00
  You know this book says. The over sharp this book says
• 10:03
  the under sharp. One Night Football totals have
• 10:05
  gone. Over, but yet these teams have
• 10:06
  gone under anytime you can't build a case.
• 10:09
  And and really have. You know.
• 10:11
  Heavy evidence on one side with not a lot of conflicting
• 10:14
  evidence on the. Other like if they're even.
• 10:16
  To me it's a layoff, so I'm not touching that total, but I do
• 10:19
  have a player prop for you, so I'm playing Chicago +7.
• 10:23
  And I'm betting on Cole Comet. The big tight end on the Bears.
• 10:27
  Over 24 1/2 receiving yards played that earlier.
• 10:29
  Today, shop around because there are some. 25 some 26.
• 10:33
  Is out there and don't get me going on how important just 1/2.
• 10:35
  Point can be. After losing Bryce Young over
• 10:38
  191 1/2 lands 191. And George Kittle over 60.
• 10:42
  One and half land 60. One, we've been there before,
• 10:45
  but 24 1/2 looks like your best number if you.
• 10:47
  Want to play the commit over with me?
• 10:49
  Now he has gone over this number in seven of his last 10 games.
• 10:52
  But it's a bit of a buy low overplay because last week even
• 10:55
  though he played or was on the field for over 90.
• 10:57
  Percent of the snaps. He didn't have a single.
• 10:59
  Target or a single catch, and this is a guy who's been pretty
• 11:02
  involved in the offense, so you're kind of buying low.
• 11:04
  In a weird. Week.
• 11:05
  Last week. Where he had no involvement even
• 11:07
  though he's out. There for pretty much every
• 11:09
  snap. But here's where it gets good
• 11:11
  comment When he faced the Vikings in Week 12 only a few
• 11:14
  weeks ago, he had 7. Catches on 10.
• 11:16
  Targets for 64 yards. So.
• 11:18
  He's playing that same defense. With Minnesota and of course the
• 11:21
  Bears touchdown dog probably have to throw the ball to keep
• 11:24
  pace. The game is indoors.
• 11:26
  Want to play Cole? Comment here over 24 1/2.
• 11:28
  Receiving yards, by the way, rhythm is predicting. 41.2
• 11:33
  receiving yards. So good angle there to go over
• 11:36
  with Comet. And I forgot to mention this,
• 11:38
  but I had two rhythm system matches on Chicago.
• 11:40
  One said they should only be +3. .1 the.
• 11:42
  Other one says they should be plus. 5.6 so.
• 11:45
  Again, even if you take. The 5.6 shop around and get the
• 11:48
  seven, some good value there. So I fully admit it's been a
• 11:52
  rough year in the NFL. It's been a weird year where if
• 11:54
  you're a contrarian. Like me data.
• 11:56
  Driven better like. Me.
• 11:58
  You know these dogs. And unders really haven't come
• 11:59
  through. It's been a.
• 12:00
  Weird year for favorites. And overs.
• 12:02
  But let's see if we can get some regression here.
• 12:04
  Let's see if we can get. A dog to bark with Chicago.
• 12:06
  So let's go Chicago +7. Let's go Cole Comet over 24 1/2.
• 12:11
  Now the next one here, Atlanta Falcons.
• 12:14
  And the LA. Raiders, LA Raiders, the Las
• 12:16
  Vegas Raiders, now Falcons come in this one, six and seven.
• 12:20
  Remember they were a popular play to go over 9 1/2 win total.
• 12:22
  So they've struggled here, lost four straight, lost to the
• 12:25
  Vikings as we as we just mentioned. 4221 did not.
• 12:28
  Cover as a Six Point Rd. dog. Meanwhile, the Raiders, 2:00 and
• 12:32
  11:00, they're battling my Patriots for a top pick here in
• 12:34
  the draft. They've lost nine in a row, just
• 12:37
  lost to the Bucks. 2813 did not. Cover as a 7 point Rd. dog.
• 12:41
  What are we seeing across the board for this one?
• 12:43
  Kind of similar. I think if you like.
• 12:45
  Chicago, you probably like Vegas, and that's where I'm
• 12:47
  where I'm going. With this one.
• 12:49
  So the early opener for this game was Atlanta -3 1/2 on the
• 12:52
  road. Now, once it was known that
• 12:55
  Aiden O'Connell got injured and Desmond Ritter, remember, he was
• 12:57
  really good for Cincinnati in college.
• 12:59
  Hasn't been great in the NFL, but when it was announced that
• 13:02
  O'Connell was out and Ritter was going to start, you saw a quick
• 13:05
  adjustment in favor of Atlanta. So this kind of speaks to the
• 13:07
  value of, you know, starting. QB based off the drop off to the
• 13:11
  to the backup -3 1/2 opener Atlanta.
• 13:14
  Then it got all the way up to -5 1/2 even -6 once again, key
• 13:18
  number here is if you're going to go the other way with me on
• 13:21
  Vegas, you got to get the six because there's a lot of five
• 13:23
  and a half's out there. But anyway.
• 13:26
  It did look like pros. Liked Atlanta anything -4 1/2 or
• 13:29
  less. But now the question is again 5
• 13:31
  1/2 now 6 is there still value no it?
• 13:34
  Looks like it's actually coming. Back toward Vegas at this.
• 13:36
  Point Another very good contrarian opportunity here.
• 13:39
  Just like the Publix all over Minnesota, they're all over
• 13:42
  Atlanta. Currently Atlanta.
• 13:44
  Is getting 72. Percent of bets at DraftKings.
• 13:46
  67. Percent of bets at circa but but
• 13:49
  the. Important thing to me too.
• 13:51
  Is not just contrarian buy low with Vegas, it's that some books
• 13:55
  got to six and are starting to fall back down.
• 13:57
  So that tells me kind of the. Key number of 6 is a point of of
• 14:00
  resistance and we're seeing this line fall back a little bit.
• 14:03
  Again, they're very contrary. And only getting.
• 14:05
  Around 30% of spread bets across the market.
• 14:08
  And here's another angle here, prime time home dogs that are
• 14:11
  getting 5 1/2 points or more, they're 22 and 12 against the
• 14:14
  spread 65% twenty 4% ROI. So I said to myself, hey,
• 14:20
  Atlanta cousins lane points on the road.
• 14:22
  I know it's against lowly Las Vegas.
• 14:24
  I think there's value here to sell high on Atlanta, buy low on
• 14:27
  Vegas. I took the +6.
• 14:29
  So shop around. Make sure you get the key number
• 14:31
  +6 with the Raiders. That's my bet in terms of the
• 14:34
  total. I did see some over money here.
• 14:36
  44 up to 40. 4 1/2 It does have pretty.
• 14:39
  Good bet Splits to the over at DraftKings.
• 14:41
  Only 50. Percent of bets.
• 14:42
  But 60% of dollars? Are on the over and at circa
• 14:45
  very. Similar, only 52.
• 14:47
  Percent bets, but 80% of dollars are on the over.
• 14:50
  So both the public book like DK. And a sharp book like Circa both
• 14:54
  have pretty. Good bet.
• 14:54
  Splits to the. Over again Monday football over
• 14:57
  is 12 and five. Here's the kicker, though, when
• 14:59
  the total is 45 or less. The over six and two.
• 15:02
  On Monday Night Football. Both teams, by the way.
• 15:04
  Are top. 15 in terms of pace of play and the.
• 15:07
  Over is four and one and Raiders home.
• 15:09
  Games this year. So if you tell me like the over.
• 15:12
  I can't argue with you. I'd lean that way a little bit,
• 15:15
  but I'm going to go with. With Vegas here. +6 with Vegas.
• 15:19
  I do have a prop for you old friend of of mine.
• 15:22
  Not me personally, but as a Patriots fan.
• 15:24
  Jacoby Myers first. Can anyone tell me why you would
• 15:27
  let go of Jacoby Myers? Who you?
• 15:30
  Picked up undrafted free agent. Built him up, Developed.
• 15:33
  Him in the system. And yet you let.
• 15:35
  Him go to the Raiders and instead sign.
• 15:36
  Juju Smith Schuster was complete.
• 15:38
  Bust and has bum knees. Thanks Belichick.
• 15:42
  Little gift out the door. Although now he's at North
• 15:44
  Carolina so we'll see how that works out.
• 15:46
  But anyway, Jacoby Myers over 59 1/2 receiving yards again, shop
• 15:51
  around. Cannot stress this enough.
• 15:53
  Get the best number because I saw some 60 1/2's out there but.
• 15:56
  59 1/2 was available at FanDuel. I'm going over 59 1/2 for.
• 16:00
  Myers Myers has gone over this number in four of his last five
• 16:04
  and in particular. He's been really, really the go
• 16:07
  to. Guy more involved since they
• 16:09
  traded away Devante Adams so last.
• 16:11
  Week against the Bucks. 7 catches on 10 targets.
• 16:14
  For 67 yards. But in particular, he's been.
• 16:17
  Targeted 10 times or more in three straight games.
• 16:20
  And when you saw Aiden O'Connell get hurt against the Bucks and
• 16:23
  Ritter, Ritter came in. Who did he look to?
• 16:25
  Jacoby Myers, By the way, the Falcons are giving up.
• 16:28
  Nearly 200 and. 30 passing yards a game, 25th in the NFL, but on
• 16:32
  the road. They're giving up nearly 2. 70
• 16:34
  and same thought process here is again a dog.
• 16:37
  Atlanta is the favorite here. Vegas Raiders got to keep up.
• 16:41
  You got to throw it, maybe get some garbage yards here that
• 16:44
  could benefit the passing offense of the Raiders just like
• 16:46
  it could. It could benefit.
• 16:48
  Commit there and the pass. Catchers for Chicago, so I'm
• 16:51
  going to go Vegas +6 again. There's some 5 and a halfs now,
• 16:55
  so make sure you get the key number and and Jacoby Myers
• 16:58
  over. 59 1/2 Can we find a way to at least go 2 and 2?
• 17:02
  Can we find a way to go 3:00 and 1:00?
• 17:03
  Wouldn't that be sweet now? Over to some college hoops,
• 17:07
  because there's one college hoops game that caught my eye
• 17:09
  here tonight. I know there's around. 10-15
• 17:12
  games overall. But I noticed a very sharp dog
• 17:15
  to favorite line move in favor of Grand Canyon baby Grand
• 17:20
  Canyon, the Lopes the Antelope 6:00 and 3:00.
• 17:23
  But they are coming off a loss to Georgia.
• 17:24
  They lost by 5. Louisiana Tech is 9 and two,
• 17:27
  they're at home. They've won two straight.
• 17:30
  What have we seen across the market here?
• 17:32
  Nothing but sharp action in favor of Grand Canyon.
• 17:34
  I'm going Grand Canyon. On the money line.
• 17:36
  Guys, I got them at -138 at FanDuel.
• 17:39
  But this game opened Louisiana. Tech -1 or -1 1/2 at home.
• 17:44
  Now it's flipped to. Grand Canyon. -2 1/2 so right
• 17:47
  off the bat dog to fave line move.
• 17:49
  And let me ask you this lot tech is 9.
• 17:51
  And two. Grand Canyon six and three.
• 17:53
  So Lot Tech has the better record.
• 17:55
  Lot Tech is at home. Yet we're.
• 17:57
  Flipping dog to fave in favor of the road team.
• 18:00
  Grand Canyon. That tells me there was a lot of
• 18:02
  respected money that came pouring in on the antelopes
• 18:05
  here. Really.
• 18:07
  Good bet splits in favor of Grand Canyon at DraftKings.
• 18:09
  On the spread 57% bets, 75% dollars and on the money line
• 18:15
  54% bets 83% dollars. So really good low bets, higher
• 18:20
  dollars bets split there for both spread and money line on
• 18:22
  Grand Canyon. If you look at some of these.
• 18:26
  Statistical categories Offensive efficiency.
• 18:28
  Grand Canyon is better one O 6 versus 1. 12.
• 18:32
  For law tech. And Defense efficiency 1. 100 in
• 18:35
  the country versus. 116 so better defense.
• 18:37
  As well and then experience factor.
• 18:40
  One thing I notice here, much better experience for Grand
• 18:44
  Canyon, more upperclassmen. The average player for Grand
• 18:48
  Canyon has 2.67 years of college hoops experience versus.
• 18:52
  Only 1.2. 5 for law tech. So again, dog to fave line move.
• 18:57
  Really good bet. Splits better offensive.
• 18:59
  Defensive efficiency and fishy because Grand Canyon is.
• 19:02
  Awful loss and they're on the road, yet they flip dog to
• 19:05
  favorite, Tells me. We got a lot of sharp money here
• 19:08
  on the Grand Canyon antelopes, so let's go grand.
• 19:11
  Canyon and again, you guys know the.
• 19:13
  Drill Are we laying 2 1/2? I mean, you can if you want.
• 19:16
  But God forbid. They win by one or two, you
• 19:18
  lose. Your two and a half.
• 19:19
  I ain't going through that torture.
• 19:20
  Give. Me a money line play.
• 19:21
  Here, Grand Canyon -130. 8 on the money line at FanDuel.
• 19:26
  Last bed of the night and you want to stay up late?
• 19:28
  And sweat some hockey with me. Let's do that.
• 19:30
  Hockey On one hockey play that caught my eye.
• 19:33
  And it is the Colorado. Avalanche on the road.
• 19:36
  Visiting the Vancouver Canucks. 10:30 PM Eastern Time tonight on
• 19:39
  ESPN Plus if you want to sweat it.
• 19:42
  But this one's interesting because it is very clear that
• 19:44
  smart money's on Colorado and that's where I'm going.
• 19:46
  Give me the ABS in this one, guys.
• 19:47
  I got the ABS at -1. 50 at Bet MGM.
• 19:51
  But this game actually opened Colorado around a -. 125 - 130
• 19:55
  Rd. favorite and now they're up to. -150 -. 155 S big.
• 20:00
  Steam hit Colorado, move that number, now it's circa.
• 20:04
  I love the bet splits on Colorado.
• 20:05
  Only 65% bets but 87% dollars. So good, you know, low.
• 20:10
  Bets Higher dollars Sharp money from the wise guys at Circa.
• 20:13
  Going with the ABS. Then you also have a lot of good
• 20:15
  system matches with the ABS. If you look at a road favorite
• 20:18
  who made the postseason the previous year, that's 81 and 55.
• 20:21
  This season, 60. Percent rested Rd.
• 20:24
  Favorite You've had at least two days between your last game In
• 20:26
  the current game one O 3 and. 6362.
• 20:29
  Percent and road favorite off a win.
• 20:32
  That's a 60% system this year, but 63?
• 20:35
  Percent since 2021, and also I'm looking at a couple other
• 20:39
  things. One the goaltenders here, you
• 20:42
  may not have noticed this, but the.
• 20:44
  Colorado ABS made a trade. They picked up Mackenzie
• 20:46
  Blackwood, goaltender from the Sharks who was previously on the
• 20:50
  Devils and Blackwood. His numbers this year aren't
• 20:53
  great. 7 and 92.9. Five goals against 9. 13 save
• 20:56
  percentage but. He was playing on one of the
• 20:58
  worst teams, the Sharks. The minute that he got traded
• 21:01
  to. Colorado, his first.
• 21:03
  Start. He's made one start.
• 21:04
  With Colorado, it was a five to two win over Nashville.
• 21:07
  He looked. Great and made 38 saves.
• 21:09
  So imagine going from one of the.
• 21:10
  Worst teams in the league? To a Cup contender if you're a
• 21:13
  goalie now with a much. Better team playing in front of
• 21:16
  you you're. Going to look better.
• 21:18
  So I like that Blackwood again died and went to heaven, leaving
• 21:21
  the Shark Tank to go to Colorado.
• 21:24
  On the other hand, Thatcher Demco.
• 21:25
  Now Demco. 'S a really good goalie, but
• 21:27
  he's been hurt all year. He's only he.
• 21:29
  He just. Came back from the IR and my
• 21:31
  Bruins who have struggled all year.
• 21:33
  Lit him up for five goals. He's O one and one. 4.47 goals
• 21:37
  against, 830 say percentage. And he's only making.
• 21:40
  His third start. Since missing a ton of time
• 21:42
  with. An injury, so, you know, maybe a
• 21:44
  month from now. Demco's good again.
• 21:46
  But this is kind of a bet against Demco as he just came
• 21:49
  back and again probably isn't up to.
• 21:51
  Speed yet? So let's see if that wanted
• 21:53
  Colorado offense. Can get to to Demco.
• 21:56
  Then home Rd. splits. Colorado's been good on the
• 21:58
  road, 10 and six, Vancouver only 5-7 and four at home.
• 22:02
  So I'm going to follow this steam with some good system
• 22:04
  matches. Let's go Nathan McKinnon.
• 22:06
  I'm on Colorado minus. 1:50 at Bet MGM.
• 22:10
  So that about does it for today's sweats here for episode.
• 22:13
  180. Three on a big Monday, see if we
• 22:16
  can eke out some winners and turn the tide because boys are
• 22:19
  getting frustrating out there. But again, you've been around
• 22:22
  the block long enough these stretches happened, so you just
• 22:24
  got to bear with it. And then I can't promise you
• 22:27
  when it'll. End, but I know it will end.
• 22:28
  Hopefully tonight is the night. But as always guys, we get to
• 22:31
  the back end of the pod. I.
• 22:33
  Always want to leave you with a couple things on.
• 22:34
  To start off first by. Thanking you and seriously
• 22:37
  genuine. Genuinely thanking you.
• 22:39
  Because I feel like our our angles are, are right there.
• 22:43
  We're beating closing lines. We're just suffering a lot of
• 22:45
  losses recently and the fact. That you guys continue to tune
• 22:48
  into the. Pod.
• 22:49
  Continue to grind with me and and don't abandoned ship.
• 22:52
  When things aren't going well, that means a lot.
• 22:54
  It really does mean a lot to me because if you're if you're here
• 22:57
  for the wins, you got to be here for the losses.
• 22:59
  That's just part of betting. So thank you, of course, for
• 23:02
  taking the time out of your day to pull up a chair to the
• 23:04
  virtual bar and sweat some sharp games with me.
• 23:07
  But now I'm going to ask a. Favor of you, could you please
• 23:09
  do me a solid? And give this podcast a five
• 23:12
  star review, whether you're on Spotify or.
• 23:14
  ITunes go to Rate and Review. Give it five stars it would.
• 23:16
  Mean a lot to me. Help us to continue to grow the
• 23:18
  pod. Get more, you'll get more.
• 23:21
  Five star reviews continue to rise up the charts if you want
• 23:24
  to hit the follow button. That way you get alerted as soon
• 23:26
  as it drops each day. Or recommend the pod to a
• 23:28
  friend. That also be much appreciated.
• 23:31
  Secondly, if you enjoy the breakdowns and you want to learn
• 23:33
  more about sharp, data-driven contrarian bedding, guess what?
• 23:37
  I got the perfect thing for you. I got a book that you should buy
• 23:40
  and it makes a great stocking. Stuffer, because as we know,
• 23:43
  Christmas. Is getting close.
• 23:44
  Here as well as Hanukkah, I am half Jewish, half Protestant, so
• 23:48
  I I'm one of those kids you hated.
• 23:49
  In elementary school, who did? Both Hanukkah and Christmas.
• 23:53
  But either whether you do both one.
• 23:54
  Or or neither holiday. Season is here and you need to
• 23:57
  get. A gift for that person in your
• 23:58
  life and you have no freaking clue what to get them.
• 24:01
  Instead of, you know, a shot in the dark getting something they
• 24:04
  probably will hate. You know what you should do You.
• 24:06
  Should buy them a book and a particular book.
• 24:09
  A book called the. Everything Guide to sports
• 24:10
  Betting Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to
• 24:13
  sports betting pick up a copy. For you or a friend.
• 24:16
  And again, makes a great stocking stuffer if someone in
• 24:19
  your life is into sports betting or.
• 24:21
  Maybe he's in a newly legalized state or knows nothing about
• 24:23
  betting but wants. To give it a shot, I think it's
• 24:27
  a good angle here to. Give him the everything.
• 24:28
  Guide to sports betting to let them know that hey, betting is
• 24:31
  hard, boy is it hard. But you can win.
• 24:33
  If you stick to the data, the data.
• 24:35
  The blueprint. The Everything Guide to Sports
• 24:37
  Betting is going to give you insights into how lines are set,
• 24:40
  how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
• 24:42
  locate sharp action, how to place them in person or online,
• 24:45
  how to shop for the best line, how to go contrarian chapters on
• 24:48
  all the major sports. It's all included in the
• 24:51
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting, so go pick up a copy.
• 24:53
  On Amazon, Jeff Bezos will drop it off in your front yard with a
• 24:57
  drone, although is. It an ET drone.
• 25:00
  Is it a good U.S. government drone?
• 25:01
  Is it an adversary drone? That's a commercial drone,
• 25:04
  Amazon. But either way.
• 25:06
  Guys, I'd much appreciate that. I think you'll get something out
• 25:09
  of it and you can bring it to the book.
• 25:11
  I'll sign it for you and. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 25:13
  ale. We'll sweat some games together.
• 25:15
  Next, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free?
• 25:17
  Trial of Juice Reel, or. Rhythm yet?
• 25:20
  Well, if you haven't, now's the time to do it.
• 25:22
  Both 7 day free trials are available to you once you
• 25:24
  download the apps. But of course Rhythm fantastic
• 25:27
  for their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 25:30
  player props. And then Juice Reel where?
• 25:32
  All of the all. Systems go, best bets are.
• 25:34
  Located and posted. If you want to follow them, you
• 25:36
  can do it from the social tab. For 490.
• 25:39
  Nine a week and again consider that as a tip jar if you enjoy
• 25:43
  the the free insights. Is it worth 5?
• 25:45
  Bucks a week to you, I hope that.
• 25:46
  I hope that the answer is yes. But not just the ASG best bets,
• 25:50
  the Robo Jackson best bets, the arbitrage plays, the sharp mush
• 25:53
  indicators you can sync up your sports.
• 25:56
  Books you can easily. Find the best futures prices
• 25:58
  shopping for the best line I love.
• 26:00
  Rhythm and I love Juice Reel and I think they're going to help
• 26:02
  you win because they help me win.
• 26:04
  So give him a shot. With a 7 day free trial.
• 26:07
  So that about does it another part here in the books First
• 26:10
  first part. Of the week.
• 26:11
  Let's see if we can get. Some winners here tonight, guys
• 26:14
  and of course I'll. Leave you with a couple.
• 26:15
  Things one. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 26:18
  in Atlantic? City Twin River in Rhode Island,
• 26:20
  the Brooklyn, New Hampshire. Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
• 26:23
  Down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
• 26:26
  Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in.
• 26:29
  Massachusetts or. Soon to be the Nash.
• 26:31
  Which is I'm anxiously awaiting the Nash to open the new Nashua
• 26:35
  NH sports book which is about. 15.
• 26:38
  Minutes from my house. Can't wait for that.
• 26:40
  I mean, my boys are are going to get there and sweat some games
• 26:42
  together. So maybe I'll see you there.
• 26:44
  Or, of course, out in the desert, where the true grinders
• 26:46
  get down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where
• 26:49
  the lowest juice possible is found at the South point, or
• 26:51
  Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in the stadium.
• 26:53
  Swimming pool when? You catch a big ticket at circle
• 26:56
  wherever maybe. Don't show me any Sunday.
• 26:58
  Tickets. What a what a brutal.
• 27:00
  Pathetic O15. But Belmont and Dayton on
• 27:03
  Saturday, those weren't bad. Weber State, Nebraska, the
• 27:06
  Wizards under on Friday. Let's see if we can start off
• 27:09
  the week on a hot. Note and claw back some of these
• 27:11
  units that we've been giving up here recently.
• 27:14
  But as always, guys, up, down, hot, cold again, feeling
• 27:18
  invincible versus feeling like you.
• 27:20
  Can't get a win? If it slapped you in the face,
• 27:23
  doesn't matter. I know it matters a lot, you
• 27:25
  know, bottom line, but it doesn't matter in terms of our
• 27:28
  approach whether. We're winning or losing.
• 27:30
  Or treading water. You always want to stick to the
• 27:32
  model. Stick to the blueprint.
• 27:33
  What is that blueprint? It's making bets based on.
• 27:36
  Data and what the market is telling us, not making bets
• 27:39
  based on what our bias and our gut tells us.
• 27:42
  You know, people always say follow your gut.
• 27:44
  Well, in certain situations in life, maybe that's a good thing
• 27:46
  to do. Not in sports betting.
• 27:49
  Because again, difficult to beat these really sharp lines.
• 27:51
  The odds maker set, we got to overcome the juice and you're
• 27:54
  biased typically. Will talk you into bad.
• 27:56
  Bets and talk you out of bad ones.
• 27:57
  But here's the thing, whether you're struggling or doing
• 28:00
  great. If we can continue.
• 28:02
  To make bets with our head and not our heart.
• 28:04
  Against the public, with the house, with the pros.
• 28:06
  Flat bet avoid. Parlays get some closing line
• 28:08
  value if we can do that. We're going to be successful.
• 28:11
  Sports betters in the end. So have.
• 28:13
  A great Monday, everybody. Let's get.
• 28:15
  Some winners here for tonight and then we'll be right back at
• 28:17
  it for tomorrow, which will be episode 184 of the All Systems
• 28:21
  Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 28:24
  Good luck everybody. Enjoy your Monday night.