Latest / Simply Bitcoin / $2T Bank CONFIRMS TRILLIONS Are Coming Into Bitcoin!! | EP 1314

Transcript

$2T Bank CONFIRMS TRILLIONS Are Coming Into Bitcoin!! | EP 1314 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  A massive bank has just confirmed that trillions is
• 0:04
  coming into Bitcoin much faster than most people think.
• 0:07
  This $2 trillion bank is one that's been quietly doubling
• 0:11
  their Bitcoin exposure every quarter since 2024.
• 0:15
  But they're not alone. A committee overseeing roughly
• 0:18
  144 trillion of capital has called for the banking industry
• 0:23
  to rethink their Bitcoin regulations.
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  Not just the, you know, private banks.
• 0:27
  We're talking central banks here, and we got another
• 0:30
  interesting story coming out of the US and central bank.
• 0:33
  The Federal Reserve government just proposed that all Fed staff
• 0:37
  should be allowed to hold Bitcoin because why would you
• 0:40
  trust someone to regulate Bitcoin if they've never touched
• 0:44
  the thing? Anyways, before we get ahead of
• 0:46
  ourselves, let's dive into the source material here.
• 0:49
  And of course, I'm not alone. We got Nikko over here.
• 0:52
  You know, our fearless, fearless leader.
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  And of course, Shane Crockett, our guest today, which is a
• 0:57
  creator of Bitcoin math org guys, I think you guys are going
• 1:02
  to really enjoy the culture. At the end of the show, we're
• 1:04
  talking about your favorite topics, how to retire on
• 1:07
  Bitcoin. We got a new retirement
• 1:09
  calculator for you guys, so should be a fun one.
• 1:11
  Anyways, I'm over here on Reuters, guys.
• 1:14
  Interesting headline. So the headline is finance
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  industry bodies call for changes to crypto rules for banks.
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  What exactly is going on here? A group of finance industry
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  bodies is calling for a rethink on looming regulatory standards
• 1:28
  that they say will make it difficult for banks to
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  participate in crypto markets. The Basel Committee on Banking
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  Supervision, which compromises regulators in central banks from
• 1:38
  the world's main financial centers, agreed a set of
• 1:41
  standards in 2022 for how banks should manage and disclose the
• 1:45
  risk around their exposure to crypto assets and an open letter
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  to the committee. Various finance industry groups
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  said that the crypto market has changed since 2022, making the
• 1:54
  proposed standards too conservative.
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  While the crypto markets remain a small part of the overall
• 2:00
  financial system, it has grown rapidly in recent years.
• 2:04
  Honestly guys, the take away from this is probably ever since
• 2:08
  Trump embraced Bitcoin here, or rather the crypto market at
• 2:11
  large, they realized, yeah, maybe the 2022 regulations where
• 2:16
  we're really trying to clamp down on everything aren't going
• 2:19
  to hold any water. Especially as the US starts
• 2:23
  embracing Bitcoin and you start to see that every administration
• 2:28
  in the US is way more pro friendly or more pro Bitcoin
• 2:34
  than they used to be under the last administration.
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  So things have fundamentally shifted here and it is all
• 2:40
  because of the United States and Donald Trump himself.
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  So quote, the crypto asset standards, restrictive
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  qualification standards combined with otherwise punitive market
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  and credit risk capital treatments effectively make it
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  uneconomical for banks to meaningfully participate in the
• 2:56
  crypto asset market. And they propose a temporary, a
• 3:00
  temporary pause to this. We all know there's nothing more
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  temporary than, you know, a government mandate, though this
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  isn't a government. This is the committee overseeing
• 3:12
  the Bank of International Settlement.
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  So I'm a pause here because we do this.
• 3:17
  I have more for this guys, but let's take a pause here.
• 3:20
  And actually today, I'm going to switch this up a little bit.
• 3:23
  I'm gonna go to Shane here 'cause he was telling me before
• 3:26
  the show he used to work in banks.
• 3:28
  So I'm guessing he's got a little more interesting take
• 3:32
  from this 'cause he was in the heart of the beast.
• 3:33
  So, Shane, thanks for coming on today's show.
• 3:36
  What's your initial thoughts hearing this news report coming
• 3:40
  out? This actually came out last
• 3:41
  night. But, you know, fresh off the
• 3:43
  docket, it looks like the Basil Committee wants to change the
• 3:47
  crypto regulations. It's, you know, very, very
• 3:50
  Coinkadinkle here of all of the things that are happening right
• 3:54
  now. It's almost like they want your
• 3:56
  Bitcoin now. It's almost like it's OK for
• 3:58
  them to want your Bitcoin anyway.
• 4:00
  Shane, what's your thoughts when you hear this headline?
• 4:04
  Yeah, Thanks, man. Appreciate you guys having me.
• 4:07
  Yeah. I mean, at the end of the day,
• 4:09
  the banks, they see that there's money that's being left on the
• 4:12
  table because these rules are so egregious that nobody's going to
• 4:18
  give them their their assets. No ones going to hand over their
• 4:22
  Bitcoin to a bank who has these kinds of rules restrictions.
• 4:26
  And so the banks are going to struggle to ever adopt any of
• 4:29
  the kind of trading, custody, lending or other services where
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  they can actually profit from holding the Bitcoin.
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  So like, it's it's this sort of, you know, like the snake eating
• 4:40
  its own tail where they make these rules that they think are
• 4:43
  actually protecting people, but all it's doing is prohibiting
• 4:46
  them from ever truly getting involved.
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  And I think they're starting to realize that the people at the
• 4:51
  top of the food chain are saying, hey, we're missing the
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  boat. We're not making money on this
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  because these rules are prohibiting people from from
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  engaging with us. We need to relax them and
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  actually encourage people to partner with us, trust us and
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  let us engage in more of these services.
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  Percent and actually there's an interesting comment here by
• 5:10
  Jocko and he goes it's an attack what is this a is this a new
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  attack or they just want to take the Bitcoin from you I think
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  this is just the old attack they just want your Bitcoin I.
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  Mean it's possible. I mean, you know, I work in the
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  space and I work with a lot of institutional lenders and I get
• 5:31
  to, you know, partner with those firms, kind of understand their
• 5:34
  terms, their rates, their structures, things that they're
• 5:36
  trying to do to get exposed to Bitcoin.
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  And it does seem like some of these companies, they do want to
• 5:44
  acquire the Bitcoin, like that's not necessarily what they're
• 5:47
  writing in their thesis, in their term sheets, etc.
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  But you know, some of the the rates and the terms and the
• 5:53
  other things that are in these agreements does make you kind of
• 5:56
  scratch your head and think, well, are they just hoping for a
• 5:59
  certain number of defaults so they can actually get the
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  Bitcoin and you know, to see that traverse across the
• 6:07
  traditional landscape into banking?
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  Who knows, right? You could be right.
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  They could just be out for the Bitcoin.
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  Like that's an absolute possibility.
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  Yeah, we have entered a new, new era in, you know, Bitcoin
• 6:18
  scamming where, you know, you sell a shit coin just because
• 6:21
  you want to acquire more Bitcoin.
• 6:22
  Now they're like, let's propose some good rules because we want
• 6:25
  the Bitcoin as well. Anyways, Nico, what's your
• 6:27
  thoughts when you hear this headline?
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  Yeah. I mean, if you can't beat them,
• 6:31
  join them. Like that's where I think, I
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  think this is this is where this is heading.
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  Andreas Antonopoulos, when he used to be dropping Bitcoin
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  content back in the day where there was no Bitcoin content,
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  Like he was talking about the five stages of grief, right?
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  And I'm going to pull those up because I think it's very
• 6:52
  fitting to kind of, you know, fit out, frame out where we are
• 6:59
  right now in terms of the legacy financial system and how they
• 7:03
  see Bitcoin specifically, not so much banks, because it seems
• 7:08
  like they've embraced it. Even Jamie Dimon is dragging his
• 7:12
  feet saying, listen, I don't like it.
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  But if our customers want it, we're going to offer it to them.
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  And then, you know, the US government is fully embracing it
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  with the Trump administration. So the five stages of grief are
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  denial, right? Anger, bargaining, depression
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  and acceptance. So and I'm going to kind of like
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  point out where everyone's at right, So where is the executive
• 7:37
  branch of the United States acceptance right, but they went
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  through the bargaining, they went through depression, they
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  went through anger right? That was operation choke .2
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  point O. You saw all these, you know, all
• 7:50
  these different types of attacks and all this stuff.
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  And then the bargaining like, you know, yeah, I mean, the, the
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  ETF is too dangerous. It's just, it's just not a
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  regulated market. Whatever.
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  The SEC was dragging his feet. And then BlackRock had so much
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  influence that, you know, they, they, they were able to, you
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  know, jam it through of, in January of 2024, where I think
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  the Bank of International Settlements is.
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  And the IMF, they're, they're still in the very beginning of
• 8:24
  the five stages of grief. They're in the denial and the
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  anger phase. I would say maybe the IMF is in
• 8:31
  the bargaining phase. And then they, maybe they went
• 8:34
  back to the anger phase, right. So, you know, depending on the
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  institution and the government, they're they're all in these
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  different stages of grief realizing and coming to the
• 8:46
  conclusion that Bitcoin is here to stay.
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  It isn't going anywhere. And if you can't beat them, join
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  them. Even President Vladimir Putin,
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  you can argue, you can make an argument.
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  He's one of the most powerful men on the face of the planet.
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  He's even saying in press conferences, it's in Russian, of
• 9:04
  course, and they translate it. He's like, you can't get rid of
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  Bitcoin, right? It's here to stay.
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  So this is what's going to happen over the next 5 to 10
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  years as the disintermediation or the separation of money in
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  state accelerates, right? Governments, institutions that
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  are used to having this monopoly in this control of money are
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  going to go through these five stages of grief and they can't
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  get rid of it because of bitcoins decentralized
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  characteristics, right? So that's the, that's, that's
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  what's happening right now. And it's, it's glorious to see.
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  It's, it's, it's very empowering as a Bitcoiner because if you
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  guys have been here for a couple of years, I mean, Opti and I, we
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  Opti and I aren't, oh geez. We weren't here from the class
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  of 20. We weren't here in 2013 or 2011
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  in that era where things were a whole lot more uncertain.
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  But I mean, still, back in 2016, like it was the Wild West, the
• 10:03
  US government was not a fan of Bitcoin.
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  Big banks were not a fan of Bitcoin.
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  No one was a big fan of Bitcoin, including Michael Saylor.
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  Michael Saylor was not a big fan of Bitcoin, right?
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  So, you know, eventually the better money wins.
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  And that's what's happening with Bitcoin.
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  And the reason that it's happening with Bitcoin is
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  because Bitcoin proves a couple of things.
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  What does it prove? It proves that money can exist
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  without government. Not only can money exist, this
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  without government, money is better without government.
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  That statement, what I just said right there is a very, very, how
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  do you, how, how do you say this?
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  It's, you know, it's, it's, it's extreme, right?
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  Could you imagine, you know, like that, that strikes, that
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  brings fear into the hearts of politicians, right?
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  Because a lot of the power that politicians have is from the
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  power of the money printer. And what happens if all of a
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  sudden they have to actually start doing good by their
• 11:06
  constituents because if not, they get elected out of office,
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  right? Do you think it's a coincidence
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  that the most popular president in the America's Naimbu Kelly
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  made Bitcoin legal tender and all of a sudden he's the most
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  popular? No, what you have is you have an
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  alignment of incentives. But the people that have been
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  benefiting from this crony system, this crony capitalist
• 11:30
  system, of course they don't like Bitcoin.
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  Bitcoin, it literally puts up a mirror.
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  It highlights the fraud, it highlights the inefficiencies,
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  it highlights the hypocrisies, Right.
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  So yeah, I think, you know, they're, they're going through
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  one of the five stages of grief and it's glorious to see.
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  I think they're in the bargaining phase to be very
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  specific, Opti, because as you very astutely pointed out in the
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  very beginning on yesterday's episode, we pulled up a chart,
• 12:00
  we pulled up an image describing the BIS is like, look there
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  there's different types of Bitcoin.
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  There's like clean Bitcoin, then there's tainted Bitcoin, you
• 12:09
  know, and then now they're like, basically, you know, having
• 12:12
  they're more open minded about it, right?
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  That's called bargaining in the five stages of grief, you know,
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  after this is depression. Maybe Agustin Carson, maybe this
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  is part of the reason that he quit.
• 12:22
  He was like, I can't beat Bitcoin anyways, Opti, what's
• 12:27
  your take on all this brother? No, yeah, I mean, and going
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  further, I I actually like that you brought the five stages of
• 12:34
  denial up here because I think we are getting to the stage of
• 12:39
  acceptance from the Fed. And that leads me to the next
• 12:42
  story I have here, which is another interesting story here.
• 12:46
  Fed's Bowman suggests allowing central bank staff to own a
• 12:49
  small amount of crypto products. So the Federal Reserve's top
• 12:53
  regulator official suggested on Tuesday that central bank staff
• 12:58
  should be permitted to own small amounts of crypto products,
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  arguing experience would better inform their work policing
• 13:04
  activities in those financial markets.
• 13:07
  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said easing
• 13:10
  restrictions on staff investments may also help
• 13:13
  recruit and retain expert bank examiners.
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  And, quote, de minimis holdings of crypto and other digital
• 13:19
  assets would help staff develop a working understanding of these
• 13:24
  products. Going further, she goes, quote,
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  there's no replacement for experimenting and understanding
• 13:29
  how that ownership and transfer process flow, she said in
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  prepared remarks delivered to a crypto conference in Wyoming.
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  I certainly wouldn't trust someone to teach me to ski if
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  they've never put on skis, regardless of how many books and
• 13:41
  articles they have read or even wrote about.
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  OK, first take away is, I mean, it sounds to me like the Fed
• 13:52
  just admitted that they don't know what the hell this Bitcoin
• 13:55
  thing is and maybe we should use it so we can understand what
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  this thing is we are regulating. And then on the second one, it
• 14:01
  does seem like a, you know, acceptance of this idea.
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  Hey, this isn't going, this isn't going to go away.
• 14:08
  So we should probably, you know, at least at the very least
• 14:11
  interact with this system versus sitting on our high heel and
• 14:15
  being like, this thing is bad. This thing should never be used.
• 14:19
  This is for criminals and money launderers.
• 14:21
  Now they're it's like, you know, the US is embracing it.
• 14:25
  We should probably use it. We should probably allow our
• 14:28
  members and staff members to use this because this is where the
• 14:32
  world is going. And if we're going to be, you
• 14:34
  know, the head regulators here or one of the central banks in
• 14:37
  the world that is basically mounted with the job of, of
• 14:41
  combating this stuff, of course, they're not a regulatory body,
• 14:43
  but they understand where this is going.
• 14:47
  It does seem like the, you know, stable coin, AKA Bitcoin dollar
• 14:52
  thesis is playing out in real time.
• 14:54
  They're like, look, we're going to interact with this Bitcoin
• 14:57
  thing in one way or another. We should probably at the very
• 15:00
  least use at the very least use this in some way.
• 15:03
  And then the second one, which I the second point or maybe a
• 15:06
  Third Point now I forget how many points I've already kind of
• 15:09
  said. She said something on the lines
• 15:12
  of maybe we can retain better talent here.
• 15:15
  I don't think any Bitcoiner is going to go work for the Fed,
• 15:18
  but I like the wishful thinking here.
• 15:20
  This does kind of lean to the idea of this being an acceptance
• 15:24
  phase. It's like, all right, this
• 15:26
  Bitcoin thing isn't going away. As hard as we try to kill this
• 15:30
  thing, as hard as we try to kind of scare people away from using
• 15:34
  this thing, it is catching on a lot faster than we could have
• 15:38
  ever imagined. We should probably get used to
• 15:41
  transacting with this thing at the very least, or you know,
• 15:45
  maybe try to get on that Pelosi train.
• 15:47
  Maybe we can at the very least just save in this Bitcoin thing
• 15:51
  if it's going to continue to go up, maybe we can capitalize on
• 15:53
  this a little bit. So 2 interesting things.
• 15:56
  Of course, the Basil committee, which it basically proposes
• 15:58
  stuff to the Bank of International Settlements.
• 16:01
  We all know what happened last week.
• 16:02
  They're, you know, they're trying to basically tag and bag
• 16:06
  Bitcoin and say there's tainted Bitcoin, non tainted Bitcoin.
• 16:10
  We have on the same day, basically Google Wallet or
• 16:13
  Google App Store saying you probably probably you're going
• 16:16
  to get banned if you have a non custodial wallet app on our
• 16:20
  platform. Now the following week, they're
• 16:23
  like, actually, we should probably embrace this thing.
• 16:26
  It seems like the the knee bending is happening at at warp
• 16:30
  speed here. And, and we just got two big
• 16:33
  signals from, you know, one of the biggest banking committees.
• 16:37
  Again, they cover about 90% of the world's banks.
• 16:41
  And then the US Fed saying we should probably let our staff
• 16:44
  members hold this thing. Like if if we're going to, you
• 16:47
  know, be the big bad boogeyman, the police here, you should
• 16:50
  probably know how to use it. Like we should probably
• 16:52
  understand what this thing is before we try to regulate it,
• 16:55
  before we try to cancel it. So look, these this one of these
• 16:59
  stories together is probably like a nothing burger, but to
• 17:03
  them combined is just showing the banks are bending the knee.
• 17:08
  They're starting to see the writing on the wall.
• 17:10
  And they realize, hey, if we don't adapt to this thing, we
• 17:13
  are going to get left in the dust here.
• 17:16
  And that doesn't even account for all the things we're seeing
• 17:18
  from Scott Besson kind of embracing stablecoins.
• 17:22
  He's been echoing since July, trillions of dollars are coming
• 17:26
  into stablecoin markets. You know, there's there's a new
• 17:29
  push right now for, of course, stablecoins because they buy
• 17:33
  treasuries. We know the US government is
• 17:34
  hurting because no one wants to buy treasuries.
• 17:37
  And now all of this is coming together, you know, in, in one
• 17:41
  Rd. here. And it's all going to go into
• 17:44
  Bitcoin, whether they know it or not.
• 17:46
  All that capital is going to eventually end up in Bitcoin.
• 17:49
  Anyone with a brain doesn't want to hold treasuries right now.
• 17:52
  They, they, they see the markets.
• 17:53
  They see what we see. And they're like, yeah, I should
• 17:55
  probably hold this Bitcoin thing.
• 17:57
  So I think they capitulated twice here.
• 17:59
  They're like, yeah, we need to use this because we're going to
• 18:01
  regulate this or, you know, we're going to police the world
• 18:03
  around this Bitcoin thing. And then they're like, yeah,
• 18:05
  maybe, maybe our staff members shouldn't be holding treasuries
• 18:08
  because these Bitcoiners are going to be the ones with all
• 18:10
  the money here. So maybe we should allow them to
• 18:12
  hold some Bitcoin. Anyways, my tinfoil hat is off
• 18:15
  here. I'm.
• 18:16
  I'm going to pass it to Nico. Nico, you're, you're, you've
• 18:21
  been known here on the show for saying that it's OK for the
• 18:25
  Trump administration to hold some Bitcoin.
• 18:27
  It's aligned incentives. Are we seeing aligned incentives
• 18:30
  from the Fed now with Bitcoin, dude?
• 18:32
  Like are we being Co opted or are they bending the knee?
• 18:36
  Are we winning so hard? Are they Co opting us?
• 18:38
  Which which? What's the tug of war here?
• 18:40
  No. So I, I, I really recommend you
• 18:44
  guys watching my interview with Caitlin Long and Kaitlyn Long
• 18:48
  has really been in the vanguard of this because she, her bank,
• 18:52
  Custodia Bank, was one of the first banks to apply for a
• 18:55
  federal banking charter. And it would be a Bitcoin native
• 18:58
  bank based out of Wyoming. I believe Kraken is, is applying
• 19:02
  for a federal banking charter as well.
• 19:05
  And the Fed essentially denied her federal banking charter.
• 19:10
  And that order came from the White House and the Fed ever
• 19:14
  since. You can make a very strong
• 19:18
  argument that they've been acting politically.
• 19:20
  Now, one of the Fed members actually resigned the other day
• 19:26
  because originally in the beginning of the year, it was
• 19:30
  the the Democrats outnumbered the Republicans.
• 19:35
  And we know the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party
• 19:39
  stance on Bitcoin that I don't think is monolithic, but a lot
• 19:44
  of it is driven by the Elizabeth Warren camp.
• 19:46
  And we know how Elizabeth Warren feels about the entire industry.
• 19:51
  She wants a central bank, digital currency.
• 19:53
  But I think there's a lot of things that are happening behind
• 19:56
  the scenes. Do I think that resignation of a
• 19:59
  Democrat Fed board member was a coincidence?
• 20:03
  No. Do I think it's a coincidence
• 20:05
  that Fed, that Trump showed up to the Federal Reserve with
• 20:10
  Jerome Powell and just kind of embarrassed Jerome Powell about
• 20:13
  how much money they were spending on the Fed building?
• 20:16
  Like it was like $3.1 billion. Like, what type of building is
• 20:20
  that, bro? Like a $3.1 billion renovation?
• 20:24
  Like, holy cow, Like what is that?
• 20:26
  That's crazy. And of course, like this is the
• 20:30
  art of the deal. This is maneuvering.
• 20:32
  This is very similar to, you know, when Trump received Putin
• 20:36
  and Russia, you know, like he came in there like Putin walked
• 20:39
  off the plane on the red carpet and there is AB2 bomber and F30
• 20:43
  fives flying right overhead like it was a show of force.
• 20:46
  And Trump's known for this. He's he's known for making
• 20:49
  deals, right? And what we have to understand
• 20:52
  is that even though, which shouldn't be like this, but the
• 20:57
  reality is it, it is like this. Even though Trump was duly
• 21:01
  elected by the American people and the Republicans won the
• 21:06
  House and the Senate, there is still a bureaucratic class that
• 21:11
  I believe runs the country. Some people call it the deep
• 21:15
  state. I call it the administrative
• 21:17
  state. But essentially what it is, it's
• 21:18
  an unelected bureaucracy that remains employed regardless of
• 21:22
  who's president. And it seems like they run the
• 21:26
  country, right? And that's really the, the, the
• 21:29
  curtain that's being pulled, the curtain that's being exposed.
• 21:33
  And they have a tremendous amount of influence over
• 21:37
  regulations, right? And I think, excuse me, I think
• 21:41
  a lot of the initial hostility from the Federal Reserve came
• 21:47
  from that. It came from that bureaucracy.
• 21:50
  And you guys have to remember that bureaucracy is not only
• 21:54
  funded by taxpayers, that bureaucracy is directly funded
• 21:59
  by the money printer, right? And if Bitcoin is to succeed, if
• 22:04
  Bitcoin migrates to becoming a global reserve currency and, you
• 22:10
  know, countries start, you know, essentially adopting a Bitcoin
• 22:15
  standard, the inevitable result of that is smaller government
• 22:20
  because it puts a check on government spending.
• 22:23
  And if government can't spend, government can't grow.
• 22:26
  Government doesn't produce anything, right?
• 22:29
  So, but again, it it goes back to what I was saying about the
• 22:32
  five stages of grief, right? There's a reason Satoshi
• 22:36
  disappeared. There's a reason he left and the
• 22:41
  it's just, it's the same reason that the samurai wallet guys,
• 22:45
  you know, even though realistically what they did.
• 22:49
  And again, I'm not a, I'm not a legal expert or anything, but
• 22:52
  I'm, I'm just giving my personal opinion.
• 22:56
  They wrote open source software. Are they responsible for people
• 23:01
  using it for illicit means? That's like making the same
• 23:04
  argument that gun manufacturers are responsible, you know, for
• 23:09
  people using guns for illicit purposes or car manufacturers
• 23:13
  are responsible for car accidents or, you know, plane
• 23:17
  manufacturer like it, it, it's like, excuse me, that's the same
• 23:21
  argument that essentially is, is being made.
• 23:24
  So, you know, to kind of weave this back in what I, what I
• 23:28
  think you're seeing is the five stages of grief like Bitcoin.
• 23:38
  There's something. Wow he's dying on stream.
• 23:41
  But you know, what Bitcoin exposes is, is that it exposes
• 23:46
  like, it exposes incentives and, and exposes the world to
• 23:52
  basically like, look guys, you had a good run.
• 23:57
  You know, money is possible without the state.
• 24:01
  Money is better without the state, and the state, you know,
• 24:08
  has empowered itself for having that monopoly on money that
• 24:13
  wasn't originally part of the social contract.
• 24:17
  Originally when the gold seizure happened in, in in the 1930s by
• 24:23
  FDR, the infamous 61-O2 order that Bitcoiners all know about,
• 24:27
  the justification of that was to stabilize markets.
• 24:32
  But essentially FDR seized all this gold and they gave
• 24:37
  essentially the promise was that they were going to give paper
• 24:41
  backed by gold in return. They took all that gold.
• 24:46
  They built Fort Knox. Fort Knox hasn't been, we
• 24:49
  haven't seen if that gold is in Fort Knox since the 1970s.
• 24:54
  It's very similar to the, the Bitcoin that the US government
• 24:57
  owns. We still don't know how much
• 25:00
  Bitcoin they own. They they haven't made that
• 25:02
  public, right. So we kind of have to take their
• 25:05
  word for it. We know that that's not the only
• 25:08
  way of doing things because Naimbu Kelly, again, the first
• 25:12
  country that made Bitcoin legal tender, the world's most popular
• 25:15
  president. Their reserves are public.
• 25:19
  You can put you can literally see how much Bitcoin El Salvador
• 25:23
  has. Anyone could see it.
• 25:25
  Right, so this is what Bitcoin is doing.
• 25:29
  It's exposing the world to an alternative system, but that
• 25:34
  alternative system is fighting back and it has a tremendous
• 25:37
  amount of power. But I think Bitcoin's eventually
• 25:40
  going to win because that alternate, that previous system,
• 25:43
  that that legacy system is a system that empowers few at the
• 25:48
  expense of the many, where Bitcoin is a more equitable and
• 25:52
  equal system, right? It you know it, regardless of
• 25:57
  whether you know you are, you're a pleb that holds .01 Bitcoin or
• 26:02
  you're Michael Saylor that personally owns 10,000 Bitcoin
• 26:06
  and his company holds 630,000 Bitcoin from a percentage
• 26:11
  return. If Bitcoin goes up 10%, you're
• 26:14
  equally going to benefit, right? And Michael Saylor doesn't have
• 26:17
  more influence over the Bitcoin network than you know that that
• 26:22
  pleb, right? So, yeah, this is a pivotal
• 26:24
  shift in human history, and it's going to be tumultuous.
• 26:27
  I mean, the only thing that I can compare it to is the
• 26:30
  separation of church and state, right?
• 26:32
  That was a very tumultuous time. You had the French Revolution.
• 26:36
  It wasn't exactly, you know, the, the, you know, the most
• 26:40
  smooth transition in systems, right.
• 26:43
  So like, yeah, like this is what's happening right now.
• 26:47
  You're living through history. You're living through the
• 26:49
  separation of money and state, and obviously the incumbents are
• 26:58
  not too happy about it. Anyways, Opti, I'm going to pass
• 27:01
  it on to you while I drink some water.
• 27:02
  Yeah, you probably shouldn't have eaten those cookies
• 27:05
  anyways. Shane, what's your thoughts on
• 27:08
  the Fed governor saying that staff members should be holding
• 27:12
  Bitcoin? I love it, man.
• 27:15
  I mean, kind of going back to some of the commentary about,
• 27:19
  you know, the Fed and, and wanting some of the comments
• 27:22
  about being more educated about the asset, what it is, how it
• 27:26
  works, the benefits, etcetera. If you zoom out and you actually
• 27:29
  look at who are the three banking regulators in the
• 27:33
  country, the Fed is one of the banking regulators, right?
• 27:37
  So the Fed, the FDIC and the OCC that is who manages all of the
• 27:42
  banking institutions from a regulatory standpoint.
• 27:45
  Well, OK, now, now, now go to conversations.
• 27:49
  You hear about the term pristine collateral, right?
• 27:51
  If you, if you guys don't know who CJ Constantinos is, I'm sure
• 27:54
  everybody does. But go listen to him talk about
• 27:57
  pristine collateral and how Bitcoin fits into the banking
• 28:00
  system. The missing link there currently
• 28:03
  though is there are no risk in underwriting models within the
• 28:07
  traditional banking system that actually value Bitcoin properly
• 28:11
  based on its future Kagger, right?
• 28:14
  And so if the Fed and if Fed board members are saying things
• 28:18
  like this, to me, that means they want to learn more about
• 28:22
  this asset so that they can understand those long term
• 28:25
  implications and figure out how to regulate it.
• 28:27
  So those risk and underwriting models can evolve to properly
• 28:31
  value Bitcoin and its future potential and future growth,
• 28:35
  etcetera. And I think that's when we'll
• 28:37
  start seeing some of these spreads, some of these borrowing
• 28:40
  rates on Bitcoin come down. Right now you're talking, you
• 28:43
  know, anywhere from 8-9, ten, 15% to borrow against your
• 28:47
  Bitcoin. Well, once the traditional
• 28:49
  banking, you know, underwriters and risk models and things of
• 28:54
  that nature evolve. And once there's some more
• 28:57
  regulatory frameworks and, and other rules built around that, I
• 29:01
  think that's when you start seeing, you know, the pristine
• 29:04
  collateral form of Bitcoin emerge and some of these lending
• 29:07
  and other more traditional banking products.
• 29:09
  Incredible insights. That, that was great.
• 29:12
  That was awesome, Shane, it goes to show like when you work at a
• 29:15
  bank and you work in the valley of the beast and you become a
• 29:17
  bitcoiner, you do get to see, you know, some the 5D chess
• 29:21
  being played out in real time. So that that was great, man.
• 29:25
  I absolutely love it. All right, guys, we have a jam
• 29:28
  packed show for you guys. But before we move on, I do want
• 29:30
  to remind you guys to smash the like button, subscribe to simply
• 29:34
  Bitcoin on YouTube, rumble and Twitter, and of course, drop a
• 29:37
  comment on this video. What do you guys think of the
• 29:39
  show? And we'll keep it moving, Nico.
• 29:42
  You want to take it up from here now, man?
• 29:45
  Absolutely guys, I do want to give a very special shout out to
• 29:50
  Simply Bitcoins lead sponsor. Simply Bitcoin is powered by our
• 29:55
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• 29:58
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• 30:01
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• 30:11
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• 30:15
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• 30:18
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• 30:21
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• 30:24
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• 30:26
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• 30:28
  Custody Bitcoin wallet address. They don't even allow you give
• 30:32
  you the ability to leave your money on the exchange.
• 30:36
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• 30:38
  $50,000 worth of Bitcoin or more, check out Bitcoin Well,
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• 30:56
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  Again, they'll help you from A to B, buying the Bitcoin,
• 31:02
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• 31:06
  custody. And you're going to want to stay
• 31:07
  tuned till the end of the show because we are going to be
• 31:09
  giving away some sats from Bitcoin well with the Bitcoin
• 31:13
  Wishing Well contest. So stay tuned to the end of the
• 31:17
  show. You might have an opportunity to
• 31:18
  win up to 1,000,000 sats today. All right, everybody, let's get
• 31:22
  to the numbers. We have tons to talk about.
• 31:24
  We will. We will be right back in just a
• 31:26
  second. I want to give a shout out to
• 31:34
  our partner Stamp Seat. Is your Bitcoin in cold storage
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• 32:47
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• 33:03
  off. At the time of recording the
• 33:05
  Bitcoin price is a $114,100 block height. 910,917 sats per
• 33:13
  dollar 876 sats per dollar Market cap 2.27 trillion Bitcoin
• 33:19
  verse gold market cap 9.56% Decline from all time high
• 33:24
  -8.3%. Realize monetary inflation .84%.
• 33:29
  Continuing to take Fiat currencies to absolute school.
• 33:33
  Anyways, these AI videos have been making the rounds.
• 33:37
  You know, TFTC has been killing it with them and our boys over a
• 33:41
  Bitcoin. Well, dropped one yesterday and
• 33:45
  let's check it out. I thought it was very wholesome.
• 33:48
  Observe, if you will, the 1950s. An impossible phenomenon in
• 33:53
  today's standards. A single salary sustaining a
• 33:57
  large family. The American dream in its
• 34:00
  glorious form. A home, a family, a car built
• 34:04
  upon a single wage. A period where diligent work
• 34:09
  promised genuine, tangible security.
• 34:12
  But like a relentless tide, subtle forces began their work.
• 34:19
  The unrestrained reach of government spending and the
• 34:22
  complex machinations of central banking unleashed an invisible
• 34:26
  erosion. Inflation.
• 34:30
  This steady debasement diminished the fruits of Labor
• 34:34
  year by year. Relentlessly, this quiet,
• 34:38
  persistent debasement culminated in moments of profound upheaval,
• 34:44
  none more stark than the 2008 financial crisis, a dramatic
• 34:49
  demonstration of a system stretched to its limits.
• 34:53
  The American dream was no more. But when a structure falters so
• 34:59
  profoundly, the process of creative destruction often takes
• 35:04
  place. From the digital age, a new
• 35:07
  construct emerged. Satoshi Nakamoto introduced
• 35:10
  Bitcoin, an ingenious design offering a mechanism to reclaim
• 35:15
  financial independence, a structure inherently resistant
• 35:19
  to the very debasement that destroyed that way of life.
• 35:23
  And so we look to the future. By 2050, this innovation is
• 35:28
  poised to reshape our financial landscape.
• 35:32
  The aspiration for a secure, prosperous future once seemingly
• 35:37
  lost is remarkably re emerging. This is the next chapter.
• 35:42
  A world fundamentally reshaped, built upon sound money, where
• 35:47
  the American dream lives once more.
• 36:04
  Nice, very nice. Much better than the Coinbase
• 36:06
  one. Bro.
• 36:07
  At least it wasn't a musical. God damn, that made that, that
• 36:12
  that made me, you know, it gave me hope.
• 36:14
  We didn't lose like 50% of our viewership.
• 36:16
  It seems like you guys were enjoying the video.
• 36:19
  Yeah, it was. Way better and and I'm sure they
• 36:22
  spent way less money than Coinbase did but hey, what do I
• 36:25
  know. Yeah, dude, so.
• 36:28
  But it's true. I mean, I mean, they made some
• 36:31
  really good points, some valid points, man, regarding, you
• 36:34
  know, like, dude, like it's not cool that, you know, our
• 36:39
  generation is poorer than our parents.
• 36:41
  It's not cool. Like, it, it, it every
• 36:44
  generation should get wealthier as the world gets wealthier.
• 36:48
  But I think under this Fiat standard, you know, it's kind
• 36:52
  of, you know, put things upside down.
• 36:56
  And I think that's what's happening.
• 36:58
  You know, that I think that's what the, that's what people
• 37:01
  are, are feeling. You know, that that video
• 37:03
  started off with like, I love musicals, but someone, you know,
• 37:11
  it's that video started off with like, look, the 1950s, dude.
• 37:15
  Like, you know, you used to be able to live off 1 salary.
• 37:18
  Like, why can't you do that anymore?
• 37:21
  That's a really good point, right?
• 37:23
  Like what's changed from the 1950s to now?
• 37:26
  Like, technology is better, productivity is better.
• 37:29
  Everyone's a genius. Like with ChatGPT or Grok or Gab
• 37:33
  or any of the demons that Opti talks about, You can ask them
• 37:36
  anything you want and to help you write a better e-mail, you
• 37:41
  know, help you, you know the grammar, you know, like like
• 37:45
  anything and the the thing will do it like instantaneously.
• 37:48
  So there there is absolutely no reason as to why, you know,
• 37:52
  compared to more than 70 years ago, you know, people's people's
• 38:00
  affordability that didn't people should people should be living
• 38:04
  better, not worse, right. So anyhow, that's my take on
• 38:08
  that. I think the team over at Bitcoin
• 38:10
  well did an incredible job post putting that together.
• 38:15
  I want to get. I want to get Shane's take on it
• 38:18
  and then opt. Yeah, I mean, I I thought it was
• 38:24
  cool. I mean, compared to the the
• 38:26
  Coinbase one, Yeah, I mean Coinbase is Coinbase, but I'm a
• 38:30
  Bitcoiner, so I much prefer Bitcoin.
• 38:33
  Well, and their focus, you know, just centrally on Bitcoin, but
• 38:38
  it, it, it, it hits on something that's important to me because
• 38:42
  like one thing that I've struggled with is orange peeling
• 38:45
  my friends and family. And I have found that through
• 38:49
  the, I don't know, 20 Bitcoin books and investing and monetary
• 38:52
  history and the Federal Reserve and how money works and all the
• 38:56
  things, right, all the pods watching Luke and Lynn and
• 39:00
  Lavish and all the people, it's like, OK, how do you distill
• 39:03
  that into a story that actually makes sense?
• 39:05
  And you can have like an elevator.
• 39:06
  Pitch that, that, that, that. Connects with people and I
• 39:09
  really feel like that's what hits home with people is just
• 39:12
  getting them to at least understand the high level
• 39:15
  impacts of this whole monetary inflation you know system that
• 39:20
  we live in monetary debasement kind of the history of it and
• 39:23
  how it shows up in our lives and some of the impacts to our
• 39:26
  lives. You know Mahler's Mahler's had a
• 39:29
  fantastic speech at at Prague this year where he actually took
• 39:32
  that approach right He said my girlfriend said told me not to
• 39:35
  do this but I'm going to do it anyway and I thought it was the
• 39:37
  best presentation he's ever given because he didn't just
• 39:40
  talk about Bitcoin. He talked about why the money's
• 39:43
  broken and how that shows up in our society, you know, with
• 39:46
  people, with families, with health, with happiness, with
• 39:49
  education, with employment, all the things.
• 39:52
  And I think that's been the most effective way for me to try to
• 39:54
  orange peel people is to get them to at least understand some
• 39:57
  of that at a fundamental level. Because once you get the
• 40:00
  problems, well, what's next? OK, now I kind of want to
• 40:04
  understand the solutions. Boom, now we can geek way out on
• 40:07
  Bitcoin. Absolutely Amen to that.
• 40:09
  I think that was beautifully put.
• 40:10
  Opti, what's your take on this? Better than the musical, right?
• 40:14
  I mean, anything's better than the musical Nika.
• 40:16
  Let's be honest here. That was brutal.
• 40:19
  Not only we lost like. 50%. Of our viewers, we lost like 100
• 40:24
  viewers on this man. Wondering, I was like all right,
• 40:26
  well, let's play this video, let's see.
• 40:27
  And no, the viewers went up, so it seems like it resonated with
• 40:30
  the audience. Opti.
• 40:32
  Yeah, no, I mean, like Shane was saying, I've noticed this as
• 40:37
  well. I've been saying that on this
• 40:40
  show for a long time now, that a lot of the orange peeling that
• 40:43
  we do with our friends and family aren't as effective as we
• 40:47
  think they are is because we, you know, we don't pick the
• 40:50
  right pain points here and we're not meeting them where they are.
• 40:54
  And we usually start with, you know, the Fed and money printer
• 40:57
  and stuff. But like that is even way too
• 41:00
  far down the line for people to really understand.
• 41:03
  Like, remember, a lot of people can't think in 2nd order effects
• 41:06
  or second order thinking here. They just think of the instant
• 41:08
  moment that they're currently living at.
• 41:11
  They're just looking at the problems in their own lives.
• 41:13
  They don't need a whole historical account of all the
• 41:15
  central banks and you know what money printing is done to money
• 41:19
  or you know, starting in 1913. That's just like too far for
• 41:22
  most people to relate to. But what Bitcoin well did here I
• 41:26
  think was very good. Like not only was it cinematic
• 41:29
  and it and it felt like a movie trailer, but it is identifying
• 41:33
  the problems that people are talking about currently today.
• 41:36
  If you talk to most people, I'm sure if you did a poll out
• 41:39
  there, you just start asking random people and and they're
• 41:41
  comfortable with you because you can't just like ask strangers
• 41:43
  like what's your biggest problem in life right now?
• 41:46
  They're like, get away from me. Who are you?
• 41:47
  Like, you stink, dude, get a new pair of shoes.
• 41:49
  What are you talking about? Like, hey, you're homeless.
• 41:51
  Why? Why are you asking me about my
• 41:53
  own problems? You probably have some more.
• 41:55
  No, I'm trolling. They would probably say a lot of
• 41:58
  the things that Bitcoin, well, just hit on is like we're having
• 42:02
  a there is a crisis going on right now in a lot of different
• 42:06
  factors of our society. And yes, to us it's very obvious
• 42:10
  that it comes from the money. But until you can kind of, you
• 42:13
  know, get them emotionally attached to what the problem is
• 42:17
  that they're personally feeling and what the solutions are.
• 42:21
  Yeah, I'm not I'm actually not homeless anymore.
• 42:24
  They're they're not going to really dive deep into Bitcoin.
• 42:29
  I mean, I was thinking about my Bitcoin story this morning, like
• 42:32
  how I got into Bitcoin and that that's what that's what happened
• 42:36
  to me. I was, I watched some videos,
• 42:38
  you know, like I, I was poor at the time.
• 42:41
  I was having a rough time in my life and I was looking for a
• 42:44
  solution. And now I think everyone as a
• 42:47
  whole is kind of getting to that point.
• 42:49
  Like we, we've been wondering why is no one buying Bitcoin?
• 42:53
  I've been saying it's just because no one has any money
• 42:55
  right now. Like everyone's broke.
• 42:57
  Like people can't buy groceries right now.
• 42:58
  People can barely pay rent. They're working more jobs and
• 43:01
  they're getting paid less and they don't know what's going on.
• 43:04
  And this is when you kind of talk about Bitcoin, it's like,
• 43:07
  hey, look, you know, I know you don't have much to save, but
• 43:10
  what you do have, you should be saving in Bitcoin.
• 43:12
  You got to hit them at their pain point.
• 43:13
  So I think they did a great job. I, I really enjoy that.
• 43:16
  So maybe AI won't take our jobs, Nikka, but they might take the
• 43:21
  people that are making commercials jobs because I'm
• 43:24
  pretty sure they only spent a couple 100 bucks on that versus
• 43:27
  that musical that was probably a couple of million and that was
• 43:31
  trash. Yeah, I mean that musical, I
• 43:35
  mean, maybe it resonated with people, bro.
• 43:37
  You know, it's crazy the differences between something
• 43:41
  that Bitcoiners make versus something that, you know, an an
• 43:46
  altcoin casino makes, right? Look at the differences.
• 43:51
  So we we do have a GoFundMe for Opti.
• 43:54
  It's on geyser so you can you can donate some sats.
• 43:58
  No, no the. GoFundMe.
• 44:00
  Is send it to my Bitcoin wallet. So no, I'm trolling.
• 44:05
  I'm trolling. I'm trolling.
• 44:07
  All right, everybody, we're going to get to the news.
• 44:09
  We have tons to talk about today.
• 44:11
  Google is buying Bitcoin miners. Take a look at that.
• 44:16
  And also, we're going to be talking about the cycle.
• 44:19
  People are dazed and confused. People don't know what's going
• 44:22
  on. So I have takes from Magoo.
• 44:24
  I have takes from Will Panda. I have takes from Anthony
• 44:28
  Scaramucci, Josh Mandel, but people are just kind of like,
• 44:33
  you know, they're, they're not feeling really good right now.
• 44:36
  And the reason for that is simple.
• 44:37
  We started the year Trump's inauguration at $109,000
• 44:42
  Bitcoin. Eight months later, eight months
• 44:45
  later, we're only sitting at $114,000 per coin.
• 44:50
  So I think it has a lot of people, you know, scratching and
• 44:53
  saying, you know, is, is Bitcoin the boomer coin now?
• 44:55
  Is Bitcoin like watching the S&P 500?
• 45:01
  But that's cool because I mean like Kramer has a job Opti.
• 45:03
  So I think we'll be fine. So anyways, guys, you're going
• 45:07
  to want to stay tuned. And then during the culture
• 45:09
  segment, we're going to be talking to our guests, our very
• 45:11
  special guests today. Shane, he has a retirement
• 45:15
  calculator. You guys are going to want to,
• 45:16
  you guys are going to want to stick around for that and we're
• 45:19
  going to be giving away some sats.
• 45:20
  So guys, we're going to be right back in just a couple seconds.
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• 47:16
  Everybody we are back. So I, I would say the big news
• 47:20
  is Google buys 4% of Terra Wolf and it's, it's massive.
• 47:30
  So they're, they're backing a $1.8 billion in infrastructure
• 47:35
  financing for high performance AI computing at Terra Wolf's
• 47:39
  facility in New York. In return, it secured A10 year
• 47:43
  contract to run AI workloads plus warrants for 8% ownership
• 47:48
  in the company. And it goes on to say that a lot
• 47:55
  of people are perhaps a little bit confused and they're just
• 47:59
  like saying like, OK, like, wait a second.
• 48:01
  So like, isn't Terra Wolf a Bitcoin mining company?
• 48:04
  And the answer is yes, but what a lot of Bitcoin mining
• 48:09
  companies are doing right now, because essentially they're
• 48:11
  experts at building, you know, high performance data centers,
• 48:18
  they're pivoting to AI, right? Our personal favorite, of
• 48:22
  course, is Hive. They're the best in the
• 48:23
  business. But I thought this was no
• 48:25
  noteworthy that Google is buying a, a portion of of of a Bitcoin
• 48:31
  miner anyways, So I do want to talk about the cycle because I
• 48:36
  think a lot of people are just kind of like, you know,
• 48:40
  dismoralized, like they're kind of they're getting kind of
• 48:42
  bored. They don't know what the F is
• 48:45
  going on. Here's Anthony Scaramucci, he
• 48:49
  has some thoughts about where he thinks Bitcoins going towards
• 48:52
  the end of the year. And then I have some thoughts
• 48:55
  with some other community leaders as well.
• 48:57
  And then we'll do kind of like a round table discussion about it.
• 49:01
  So let's check out this clip. I mean, listen, there's been
• 49:04
  pain in euphoria in the Bitcoin markets over the last five
• 49:08
  years. I think what's happening now is
• 49:10
  lots of consolidation and institutional adoption.
• 49:14
  So if you went to a conference like this three years ago, it
• 49:18
  was mostly retail investors and CE OS working in the layer one
• 49:23
  blockchain space. Today it's lots more
• 49:26
  institutional investors. So that, that's finally starting
• 49:29
  to happen. If you look at the numbers on
• 49:32
  something like the BlackRock ETF, the Ibid ETF, you can see
• 49:37
  now, Andrew, there's lots of institutions coming in.
• 49:39
  So what's interesting is that some of the whales have been
• 49:42
  selling. So I, I know I've seen your
• 49:44
  interviews with Michael Novogratz and the 80,000
• 49:47
  bitcoins that sold last month. And so there's a consolidation
• 49:51
  story happening, there's a change of ownership story
• 49:54
  happening. But I think we're going higher
• 49:56
  just because you just look at the math, there's just way more
• 49:59
  demand than issued supply of Bitcoin or you know existing
• 50:04
  overall supply in the marketplace.
• 50:06
  So we still maintain our price target between 180 and 200,000
• 50:11
  by year end. And I think it's AI think that's
• 50:14
  a cautious price target. By the way, I think there are
• 50:17
  people that are way above us those levels, but I just think
• 50:20
  it's a function of buying and only 450 bit.
• 50:27
  So let let me know what you guys think.
• 50:30
  Do you do you guys still believe we're going to hit 200 K by the
• 50:33
  end of the year? I mean, Bitcoin has this way of
• 50:36
  just, you know, kind of doing things that no one expects,
• 50:40
  right? It crushes expectations, but
• 50:43
  sometimes, you know, it does the exact opposite when everyone is
• 50:47
  kind of depressed and sad and you know, we're in the the pits
• 50:51
  of a bear market and then all of a sudden, you know, we're in
• 50:54
  euphoria phrase. It tends to drive a little bit
• 50:56
  some people crazy like me and Opti.
• 50:58
  You know, it explains a lot of being Opti's behavior.
• 51:02
  Anyways, here's Josh Mandel. Josh Mandel infamously or better
• 51:07
  said famously said, you know, he he predicted 444K Bitcoin.
• 51:15
  Josh Mandel got famous for being very, very accurate with the
• 51:19
  previous prediction to the day, right.
• 51:21
  So he predicted a price and he said a day and then it was
• 51:25
  exactly accurate, which was like completely surreal.
• 51:30
  And then he just came on to the scene out of nowhere and here
• 51:35
  here are some of his thoughts. I still believe in 444 K Bitcoin
• 51:39
  and I already said inclusion is a done deal.
• 51:42
  People underestimate the extent to which Bitcoin is faded.
• 51:46
  Individual noise can manipulate the interior, but the monthly
• 51:49
  closes are when the pot, the policing is heaviest.
• 51:54
  MSTR is a sail which can catch the winds of indexation and
• 51:59
  indexers transact like they are short gamma.
• 52:03
  They have no ability to consider valuation measures like M NAV.
• 52:07
  So and then this is a response to Joey, Joey Football and this
• 52:12
  is a response to Josh Mandel. And he says I have made only one
• 52:16
  fund purchase of any significance in years.
• 52:19
  The ski boat, I felt guilty about it, but it rides better
• 52:22
  than MSTR. Oh snap, Joey Football says.
• 52:26
  So what do you think the end game is here then?
• 52:28
  MSTR just dies. And then that's when Josh Mandel
• 52:34
  replied, no, MSTR is not going anywhere, which is exactly what
• 52:37
  I said on yesterday's show. But the smaller Bitcoin treasury
• 52:41
  companies, I do believe a lot of them, when this cycle's over,
• 52:46
  when the bear inevitably hits, a lot of them are going to go
• 52:50
  poof. But I think the big three,
• 52:53
  Nakamoto, Jack Mahler's 21 and and of course, MicroStrategy,
• 52:58
  they're not going anywhere. I saw Tyler Durden post
• 53:04
  something. I thought it was really funny,
• 53:05
  which is like MicroStrategy is too big to fail.
• 53:08
  I mean, they just have first mover advantage.
• 53:10
  They have so much Bitcoin, they were able to get some of the
• 53:13
  most favorable deals. So like unless Bitcoin crashes
• 53:18
  to like 1000 bucks, I don't think MSTR is going anywhere.
• 53:23
  We also got a super chat from from a from a fan appreciate the
• 53:30
  eleven $1111.11 Canadian Canadian Canadian shekels for
• 53:38
  steak dinner fund and could you could you pull up the other one
• 53:42
  from Ron P $10 Opti needs money. Please send super chats daily
• 53:47
  Monday through Friday. Guys, I am not homeless.
• 53:51
  Nika was trolling OK, But I appreciate it.
• 53:53
  Thank you guys. So this is all going to getting
• 53:57
  Opti outside of a bridge in Miami and we are, we are getting
• 54:04
  him in a nice apartment. Anyhow, I do want to pass it on
• 54:10
  to Shane. Shane, what are your thoughts on
• 54:13
  this, bro? What's going on with this bull
• 54:15
  market, brother? Because 10 what, what
• 54:17
  realistically happens the year after the halving is Bitcoin
• 54:20
  tends to pump. That seems like that hasn't been
• 54:24
  the case this time. Yeah.
• 54:28
  And you know, I'm a, I'm a left brained guy.
• 54:31
  So like I look at everything in sequential, rational, scientific
• 54:36
  metrics oriented ways. And the one thing that I can't
• 54:42
  get out of my mind is that the past three cycles, the overnight
• 54:46
  or the Fed funds rate has been like we, we were in a 0 interest
• 54:49
  rate policy regime. So borrowing costs were
• 54:52
  basically nothing. And So what does that mean?
• 54:55
  Well, it means that credit card rates were cheap and the ability
• 54:58
  to refinance your home mortgage was easy, and consumer liquidity
• 55:04
  conditions were extremely loose. People had easy access to cheap
• 55:08
  money. And then you Fast forward to
• 55:10
  this cycle and like, yeah, sure, it still follows the same having
• 55:13
  the same presidential election, all the things.
• 55:15
  But look at the monetary policy, right?
• 55:19
  We've been we've been historically high, you know,
• 55:23
  with the feds rate hiking policies, you know, to to tamp
• 55:27
  down the inflation after COVID and that has prolonged, I think
• 55:31
  this cycle. I could be wrong, but like I
• 55:33
  can't, I can't stop thinking about just how different this
• 55:35
  monetary policy regime is compared to all of the other
• 55:39
  cycles where we've been at at this time.
• 55:41
  So what does that mean for me? It means, well, if we are going
• 55:45
  to get a retail driven euphoria that gives us a blow off top
• 55:49
  like every other past cycle, well, then the consumer
• 55:52
  liquidity conditions have to be much looser.
• 55:55
  People have to be able to go out and roll all their debt and, you
• 55:58
  know, push up their credit card balances, consolidate their
• 56:01
  credit cards into cheaper cards with higher credit limits,
• 56:04
  refinance their mortgages, go buy new homes and kind of just
• 56:07
  get the liquidity. You know, resources sloshing
• 56:10
  around in the consumer sector a little bit more 'cause right
• 56:13
  now, like people are broke and they're not really pushing the
• 56:16
  price up at the margins at this point in the cycle like they
• 56:19
  have in the past three cycles or so.
• 56:22
  That is my theory. And of course, I could be
• 56:25
  completely wrong, which if I am, please come dunk on me on
• 56:28
  Twitter. Opti, what's your take?
• 56:30
  I think that was a very spot. On Yeah, No.
• 56:32
  That someone said in the audience.
• 56:34
  One 100% I, I agree with what Shane was saying is like last
• 56:40
  couple of cycles, we were in a, you know, a easy money regime
• 56:44
  and now the money is tightening up and we actually saw another
• 56:48
  metric drop, I believe it was last night, but it's been
• 56:50
  circulating Twitter this morning.
• 56:51
  Like the reverse repo markets are the driest they've been in a
• 56:54
  long time. So where the money has been
• 56:56
  parked when, you know, there was too much liquidity is now drying
• 56:59
  up, which means the liquidity is drying up globally right now, at
• 57:02
  least in the US, we're talking the US reverse repo markets
• 57:05
  right now. And so if you can kind of
• 57:08
  connect these two, you know, Bitcoin's going to need a
• 57:11
  basically a new injection of liquidity from somewhere else.
• 57:14
  And we don't know where that's coming from.
• 57:16
  That's like the big question here is like, will it come from
• 57:18
  retail? Will it come from the corporate
• 57:20
  treasuries? Will it come from the nation
• 57:21
  states? Like essentially some new, like
• 57:24
  bulk buyers need to come in here, whether they're buying in,
• 57:27
  you know, in huge sizes or it's a, you know, a wave of retail
• 57:31
  coming in here. There's not the liquidity is
• 57:35
  drying up right now. And of course, we all know
• 57:37
  Bitcoin reacts to global liquidity, or you could just
• 57:39
  argue it reacts to the US liquidity here.
• 57:42
  But that's what we're seeing. We're seeing not only are people
• 57:45
  broke, but the free money is not there anymore.
• 57:49
  And this is probably why the price of Bitcoin is so stagnant.
• 57:52
  And I don't know if you pulled it up, Nico, sorry, I was, I was
• 57:54
  chatting. I was being very distracted by
• 57:56
  the chat here. We're having a really good time
• 57:59
  over here, but did you pull up the whale panda chart?
• 58:01
  I don't know if this is. True, I mean.
• 58:04
  Yeah, pull that up. I don't know if this is true,
• 58:06
  but it could explain what is going on here.
• 58:09
  So read the tweet or here I'll read it.
• 58:11
  So Whale Panda again, a notorious shit coin area, but he
• 58:14
  is kind of Bitcoin adjacent. I think he's complaining because
• 58:17
  it's probably got huge bags of shit coins and not Bitcoin right
• 58:20
  now, but he goes. There are no Bitcoin buyers in
• 58:22
  this market. Absolutely 0 or if they are,
• 58:25
  they aren't buying actual Bitcoin, which really leads to
• 58:29
  the idea of paper Bitcoin summer and what what exactly are we
• 58:33
  like? Can you full screen this Nico so
• 58:35
  I can read kind of these indicators here and what's what
• 58:38
  are what are we looking at here? You're too zoomed in you're too
• 58:41
  zoomed in. What's the got up top?
• 58:43
  What's it saying on top left Nico, I'm blind.
• 58:45
  I can't read that. Oh, he's he's looking at volume
• 58:51
  here. So you can see what US tech 100
• 58:54
  cash it's drying up. There's just no there's no
• 58:59
  there's no volume coming in guys.
• 59:01
  So you know, we just don't have buyers right now.
• 59:04
  So as much as everyone's been saying, hey, you know, they're
• 59:07
  selling fake Bitcoin or paper Bitcoin summer, it could just be
• 59:11
  there's just not that many buyers in the market, dude, it's
• 59:14
  just us. We're the only ones here.
• 59:16
  Remember the articles there used to be like a couple of months
• 59:19
  ago, maybe 6-9 months ago of all the Bitcoin tourists, all the
• 59:25
  Bitcoin tourists are gone, guys, No one is here as the quote the,
• 59:29
  the tourists here. It's literally just us.
• 59:32
  Like it's only bitcoiners that have been here for a while and
• 59:35
  we we're no match in comparison to the hundreds of thousands of
• 59:39
  coins that are hitting the exchange right now.
• 59:41
  Even sailor is in a match here and and if you look at what
• 59:44
  sailors doing like it seems like even his liquidity is drying up
• 59:47
  like he's not able to, you know, withdraw from the ATM like he
• 59:51
  used to. So we need we need a new
• 59:55
  catalyst to make this thing start ripping guys.
• 59:58
  I think eventually it's going to happen.
• 59:59
  I'm I'm very bullish about Q3 and Q4.
• 1:00:02
  I think this is just, this is just going through the motions,
• 1:00:06
  you know, and, and again, the longer Bitcoin goes sideways,
• 1:00:09
  the more explosive the move eventually.
• 1:00:12
  And again, guys, it's Infinity divided by 21 million like the
• 1:00:16
  it's just it's it's. It's incredibly obvious where
• 1:00:19
  this is goes. It's where this goes.
• 1:00:21
  It's just a waiting game. That's really what it's about.
• 1:00:24
  So anyways, guys, we're gonna be right back in just a second.
• 1:00:26
  We're gonna hit the culture segment and we're gonna be
• 1:00:29
  talking to our guests, Bitcoin math, Bitcoin math.org, the
• 1:00:34
  creator Shane Crockett. So we're gonna be back.
• 1:00:38
  Here we go. I want to give a shout out to
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  All right, everybody, we are back and we got our boy Shane
• 1:02:48
  here and guys, we're going to be talking about how much Bitcoin
• 1:02:52
  you need to retire. Yeah, let's just let, let's
• 1:02:54
  start with Shane, of course, creator Bitcoin math.org.
• 1:02:58
  Let's just like lay lay the foundation here.
• 1:03:00
  What is Bitcoin math for our audience that isn't familiar
• 1:03:03
  with your work. And then we'll go into, you
• 1:03:06
  know, the idea that has been catching, you know, like storm
• 1:03:10
  here, like fire. Dude, the guy who said yesterday
• 1:03:13
  that I butcher all the metaphors, He's so right.
• 1:03:15
  Like I yeah, euphemisms, metaphors, I butcher them all
• 1:03:18
  the time. Anyway, Shane, what is Bitcoin
• 1:03:20
  math.org? What are you trying to do here?
• 1:03:21
  And then we'll go into kind of the the topic that everyone
• 1:03:24
  loves. Yeah, absolutely.
• 1:03:28
  So the platform is really born out of my struggle to educate my
• 1:03:32
  friends and family about Bitcoin and why they should care and
• 1:03:36
  kind of combining that with some of the things I like to do with
• 1:03:40
  math, with data, with sheets, with, you know, lots of
• 1:03:43
  different Google tools, things of that nature.
• 1:03:45
  So it's it's really like a fun interactive way to come and
• 1:03:50
  model different financial use cases, different scenarios to
• 1:03:54
  just plug in your own values from your own life, make it
• 1:03:57
  personal and have like real world dynamic data-driven
• 1:04:01
  outputs presented to you. So you can actually see like, oh
• 1:04:03
  OK, how would this compare to how would buying Bitcoin
• 1:04:07
  compared to putting cash in a CD earning 3 1/2% for three years?
• 1:04:12
  How would Bitcoin in my retirement compared to S&P 500
• 1:04:16
  stocks earning 11% if I think Bitcoin is going to return 25
• 1:04:20
  over the next 10/15/20 years, whatever it is.
• 1:04:23
  And just makes those kinds of scenarios much easier to
• 1:04:26
  actually get your hands on and mess around with, whether you're
• 1:04:29
  on the tablet, your desktop, laptop, or a smartphone.
• 1:04:33
  Like it's easy, it's drag and drop, it's dynamic and anybody
• 1:04:36
  can really, you know, use the tools to model and interact with
• 1:04:40
  those kinds of scenarios and, and, and use cases as they see
• 1:04:44
  fit. And so, you know, whether it's a
• 1:04:46
  curious pleb that just wants to geek out and, and kind of mess
• 1:04:50
  around with some data and some numbers, or whether it's, you
• 1:04:53
  know, a teaching institution of some kind, or an educator or
• 1:04:57
  influencer or advisor or whatever it is.
• 1:05:00
  And they're trying to convey to their audience or their customer
• 1:05:03
  or their client or whatever. Right about, Hey, here's here's
• 1:05:06
  some reasons why you might want to pay attention to Bitcoin.
• 1:05:08
  We've been talking a lot about retirement.
• 1:05:10
  Did you know, and then just be able to take them to like a more
• 1:05:13
  fun interactive experience that helps them see like the bigger
• 1:05:16
  picture, right? You guys know, I mean, you're on
• 1:05:19
  X, you guys are you guys interact with people all day,
• 1:05:22
  every day. Like there's so much talk and
• 1:05:25
  there's so much opinion and there's so much subjectiveness
• 1:05:27
  to all these things we talked about.
• 1:05:29
  It'd be great if more people would just show up with facts
• 1:05:32
  and data and math and actually start supporting things with a
• 1:05:35
  little bit more evidence and data as opposed to just
• 1:05:38
  everything always being, you know, kind of subjective and,
• 1:05:41
  and, and feeling overly opinionated.
• 1:05:43
  So that's kind of the underlying thesis and the spirit of why I
• 1:05:48
  created the platform. It has evolved.
• 1:05:51
  It was just calculators, but now there's like a TLDR downloadable
• 1:05:56
  ebook where I kind of synthesized everything I've
• 1:05:59
  learned about monetary history and some of the, the, the
• 1:06:02
  painful milestones that we've gone through, whether it's the
• 1:06:05
  gold compensation of 34 or Bretton Woods or the abandonment
• 1:06:10
  of the gold standard in 71, COVID GFC, you name it, right?
• 1:06:15
  But like, it's taken me five years to learn all that stuff
• 1:06:18
  and dozens of books and thousands of hours of watching
• 1:06:21
  shows like you guys and some of your amazing guests.
• 1:06:24
  And I tried to just condense that into like a 1520 minute
• 1:06:27
  read that you could do from your smartphone over lunch.
• 1:06:31
  And then there's other resources on there too, Like there's tools
• 1:06:34
  that we trust from Bitcoin focused companies to really help
• 1:06:37
  people get started, right? Like, OK, I found your site.
• 1:06:40
  I learned a little bit. This is really interesting.
• 1:06:42
  How would I buy Bitcoin? How would I manage Bitcoin in
• 1:06:46
  cold storage and set up a multi sig?
• 1:06:48
  How would I borrow against my Bitcoin?
• 1:06:50
  How would I earn Bitcoin rewards?
• 1:06:52
  Whatever it is, We put a simple strategy playbook up there as
• 1:06:55
  well. And then some of our favorite
• 1:06:57
  educational resources, right? Your guys is POD, your guys is,
• 1:07:01
  you know, X accounts and tons of others that we follow on X books
• 1:07:06
  that we've read that we've found to be super insightful, training
• 1:07:09
  and certification platforms, you know, you name it.
• 1:07:13
  So there's just a ton of educational resources there as
• 1:07:16
  well. So anybody starting from I don't
• 1:07:18
  know anything about Bitcoin to I know everything and I want to
• 1:07:21
  teach Bitcoin and really everything in between?
• 1:07:24
  Love it, Shane. Sorry I'm laughing at the chat.
• 1:07:27
  I'm just a moon boy. Love it.
• 1:07:29
  All right, so Shane, before we kind of mess with the
• 1:07:31
  calculator, we're going to mess with the retirement calculator.
• 1:07:34
  There's other calculators there, guys.
• 1:07:35
  Go to bitcoinmath.org. You did go on our boy Robin's
• 1:07:39
  podcast and you said something interesting because I know when
• 1:07:43
  Nico and I and even Luke would do the retirement calculators, a
• 1:07:48
  lot of the people in the audience are like, this is
• 1:07:50
  demoralizing. I, I can't ever get to hundreds
• 1:07:52
  of Bitcoin to retire. But you have a tweet here or
• 1:07:55
  rather Robin's tweet here is you quoting you saying you just need
• 1:07:59
  1.9 Bitcoin to retire in five years.
• 1:08:02
  So before we mess with the calculator here and you guys
• 1:08:06
  could give some metrics and stuff for that.
• 1:08:08
  How did you come to this number? So that number was actually from
• 1:08:15
  Robin inputting his data into the calculator.
• 1:08:20
  So he went in and said, well, well, yeah, he, he went in and
• 1:08:24
  he said, well, OK, if I need this many, if I need this much
• 1:08:27
  money every month to live and I think inflation's gonna go up by
• 1:08:30
  this much and I think I'll borrow at this rate.
• 1:08:32
  And then he, you know, he's pretty bullish on Bitcoin.
• 1:08:35
  So he set his CAG are pretty far out.
• 1:08:37
  He's you know, sailors bowl case 37%.
• 1:08:40
  So in that scenario, right, if you're super bullish on Bitcoin
• 1:08:43
  and you don't need a ton of money each month to pay your
• 1:08:46
  bills, then based on how I've set up the model, the show a 30%
• 1:08:50
  LTV loan and 50% LTV loan really in perpetuity.
• 1:08:55
  He only needed 1.9 Bitcoin to retire.
• 1:08:57
  Amazing, amazing. OK, let's let's play with this
• 1:09:00
  calculator. So which calculator were you
• 1:09:02
  using? Was it the cash savings or the
• 1:09:04
  retirement savings? So go down to the third, the
• 1:09:09
  third section there. Nope.
• 1:09:11
  Keep going down this one. Expand there.
• 1:09:14
  Yeah, click on that and then you've got retire on big.
• 1:09:16
  Let's go. OK, here we go.
• 1:09:19
  All right. Yep.
• 1:09:22
  So there's a yeah, there's an overview up top, but I mean,
• 1:09:24
  this one's pretty simple. I mean, you're just going to key
• 1:09:26
  in your monthly expenses that you need to basically receive as
• 1:09:30
  income right in the form of a loan.
• 1:09:33
  You're going to key in the basic loan APR.
• 1:09:35
  And then what you think your year over year expense increase
• 1:09:38
  will be, whether that's because you're living more lavishly or
• 1:09:42
  because of inflation or a combination of the two.
• 1:09:45
  And then once you've keyed those values in, you just drag the
• 1:09:48
  CAGR bar to the to the growth projection that you want to
• 1:09:51
  estimate and see the outputs for and the results.
• 1:09:53
  Will be awesome. All right, so I think we should
• 1:09:56
  Crowdsource this for the chat or Nico.
• 1:09:59
  Maybe we can pull up some average numbers.
• 1:10:01
  Just put one dude. What put one what?
• 1:10:04
  Put one Bitcoin and then put the average.
• 1:10:07
  We need monthly expenses. Well, this is going to tell you.
• 1:10:11
  This is going to tell you how much Bitcoin based on the money
• 1:10:13
  you need to live each month. So.
• 1:10:15
  Let's put it, Let's put it. So let's put like 7500 for a
• 1:10:21
  family. Put 7500.
• 1:10:24
  For a family there we go Loan APR.
• 1:10:28
  What do we put there That's. It's what you're it's what
• 1:10:33
  you're gonna pay to to borrow against your Bitcoin.
• 1:10:35
  So I mean, I keep it simple and I just put in 10, but this will
• 1:10:38
  depend on the lender. Might be 8, might be 12, might
• 1:10:41
  be 15, but. A10 let's 10 is.
• 1:10:43
  Easy. Year over year expense increase,
• 1:10:46
  what's what's like the average for what?
• 1:10:49
  Since we're doing like a family here, Nico, we've had that
• 1:10:52
  number before. Was it like 80K or something
• 1:10:54
  like that? The average income, you're
• 1:10:57
  saying? A year over year expenses for
• 1:11:00
  like what you do, a family, single family.
• 1:11:04
  This will just be a. Percent increase.
• 1:11:06
  Oh, no increase. I just OK, yeah, I can I keep it
• 1:11:09
  simple with like 5%, but you know, if you think, if you think
• 1:11:13
  inflation's actually 7 to 10 and that might be a more relevant.
• 1:11:17
  Well, I do, I do in fact think it's it's closer to 7 to 10.
• 1:11:22
  We'll go conservative. We'll go 7 here.
• 1:11:25
  All right, chat, how bullish are we?
• 1:11:27
  What is the Bitcoin kegger? Is it 10:20, 30-40?
• 1:11:32
  I know it's been 50 the last five years.
• 1:11:34
  Are we going to maintain that? So I'm going to Crowdsource this
• 1:11:36
  guys. What do you guys think the
• 1:11:39
  kegger is going to be? Actually, we'll start, we'll
• 1:11:42
  start with just like a very non, you know, a very bearish,
• 1:11:48
  bearish kegger here, 10%. Let's see, how do you read this?
• 1:11:53
  All right, so that's high 10% kegger.
• 1:11:57
  Let's see, five years. So you're gonna, if you think
• 1:12:01
  Bitcoin's gonna cagger at 10 and you need to borrow 7500 bucks a
• 1:12:06
  month against it to live your life, then you're going to
• 1:12:10
  struggle to retire on your Bitcoin, right?
• 1:12:12
  And this, this, this shows you that because you're borrowing,
• 1:12:16
  you're borrowing so much more rapidly than the Bitcoin
• 1:12:19
  underlying Bitcoin asset is appreciating.
• 1:12:22
  And because these values are kept at 30% loan to value and
• 1:12:26
  50% loan to value, well, you're, you're constantly gonna be
• 1:12:30
  borrowing more than your, your bitcoins appreciating.
• 1:12:33
  That's why this curve goes up. But if you go back to the kagger
• 1:12:36
  now, just click it on, click it on Sailor's bear case, 21%
• 1:12:41
  there. Wait, that's 22.
• 1:12:44
  What happened? That's 22%, but yeah.
• 1:12:47
  So here you'll see the curve, you know, normalize and flatten
• 1:12:50
  out because eventually what happens is the amount of money
• 1:12:54
  that you're borrowing against your stack is actually lower,
• 1:12:59
  albeit marginally at first. But eventually it becomes, you
• 1:13:02
  know, materially lower than the amount that your Bitcoin is
• 1:13:05
  appreciating because of that compounding factor.
• 1:13:08
  And that's why this peaks out after say 7 years and starts to
• 1:13:12
  come down. OK, so now everyone in the
• 1:13:15
  chat's getting bullish, so they say 35%, let's move this up to
• 1:13:20
  35. Yep, let's see.
• 1:13:25
  OK. All right.
• 1:13:28
  So year. One, yeah.
• 1:13:29
  And so this and so the same thing has happened there, right?
• 1:13:32
  This gets much steeper and the curve gets pulled forward.
• 1:13:35
  Why? Because although you're
• 1:13:37
  borrowing more than the value of your Bitcoin is appreciating
• 1:13:41
  upfront because of that compounding factor.
• 1:13:45
  After what is that year 4, your Bitcoin is actually appreciating
• 1:13:49
  more than the dollars that you're borrowing against it.
• 1:13:52
  And therefore the net effect is your LTV is coming down instead
• 1:13:56
  of continuously increasing. Interesting.
• 1:13:59
  All right, now the chat did get super bullish.
• 1:14:01
  Let's see which one's the most bullish Bitcoin Barber 43.7
• 1:14:07
  We'll, we'll, we'll do. It's all right.
• 1:14:09
  They said 42 is the the answer of the universe, or so we'll go
• 1:14:12
  42. There it is.
• 1:14:17
  All right, so year 20. There we go.
• 1:14:20
  Now we have the math. You can retire on .1 Bitcoin
• 1:14:23
  you. Can't.
• 1:14:25
  You can't. Retire well well, well, so the
• 1:14:30
  way this reads though, is you're going to want to have the amount
• 1:14:33
  of Bitcoin Max the the maximum amount of Bitcoin this
• 1:14:37
  represents right. So in year 1 or if you wanted to
• 1:14:41
  look at, yeah, so if you looked at year one, right, you only
• 1:14:44
  need, what is that three Bitcoin to do this to keep your LTV at
• 1:14:49
  30 or 50%. But if you want to look ahead
• 1:14:52
  and see, OK, well, how much would the, what's the maximum
• 1:14:55
  Bitcoin I would need to implement this strategy based on
• 1:14:58
  my estimates? Well, then you're going to want
• 1:15:00
  to look at year 4, right? It looks like it's year 4 that
• 1:15:03
  it peaks out at a little over 5 Bitcoin if you're doing a 30%
• 1:15:07
  LTV. And so that's kind of how this
• 1:15:10
  is set up is to say, well, OK, if I want to look at a 20 year
• 1:15:13
  period and these are my expenses, this is my growth rate
• 1:15:16
  and here's what I think Bitcoin will do.
• 1:15:19
  How much Bitcoin would I need to confidently retire and live off
• 1:15:23
  of it using a loan right now? Yeah, and guys, you could check
• 1:15:26
  out too. Go to leadin dot IO.
• 1:15:30
  You can use if you use the if you use the link.
• 1:15:34
  If you're looking for Bitcoin back loans, you get .25% off
• 1:15:38
  your first loan if you use that link.
• 1:15:40
  But I wouldn't believe I will hold on, I will say $80 million
• 1:15:45
  in 20 years. I will, I will say, I will say
• 1:15:49
  though, I will say that careful with margin, ladies and
• 1:15:53
  gentlemen, careful with margin. Cause I've heard some, some,
• 1:15:58
  some pretty bad stories. But yeah, I mean, this is
• 1:16:02
  definitely this is that looks like I'm not going to retire.
• 1:16:07
  But dude, look, regardless, your life is going to get cheaper.
• 1:16:10
  Your purchasing power is going to increase.
• 1:16:13
  And I love all these retirement calculators that are, that are
• 1:16:18
  being built by the community, man.
• 1:16:21
  You know, someone in the chat. So all the variations show is
• 1:16:24
  that we need to get somewhere close to six BTC to retire.
• 1:16:27
  If you slide that bar left and right, is that true?
• 1:16:33
  No, man, I mean the inputs are what determine the outputs.
• 1:16:37
  So you know, if you need $7500 a month to live your life and
• 1:16:42
  you're going to borrow it at what was it, 10%?
• 1:16:44
  And you think inflation's going to be 7, then the answer to that
• 1:16:48
  user's chat would be correct, Yes.
• 1:16:50
  But if you are borrowing, if you only need say four or five grand
• 1:16:54
  a month and you think inflation's going to be two or
• 1:16:56
  whatever, all of these outputs are dynamic and they're going to
• 1:16:59
  change. So for every.
• 1:17:01
  What if you live in large and you're spending $100,000 a
• 1:17:05
  month? Put it in there Opti.
• 1:17:07
  Pop it in, pop. It in.
• 1:17:10
  Hold on. I did.
• 1:17:11
  I did the first one. I did the first one.
• 1:17:13
  Five K 10% APR 7. What's that 7% year over year
• 1:17:19
  expense increase it's looking like?
• 1:17:23
  What's this number? You would need to have 1.93
• 1:17:26
  Bitcoin starting in year 1 and they total 4.68, peaking in Year
• 1:17:29
  5, and you would need to have one.
• 1:17:33
  Wait, sorry. Yeah, that that works.
• 1:17:35
  All right, What are we doing? 100K 100 KA month?
• 1:17:39
  That's crazy talk. What's a loan APR?
• 1:17:43
  If you have that much money I'm sure you could get a lower APR
• 1:17:47
  but we'll leave it at 10 all. Right.
• 1:17:49
  So how much? With a kagger of 30, uh huh, Go.
• 1:17:55
  Down. Let's see, you would need 38.5
• 1:18:00
  Bitcoin to start and it would peak at what, almost 100?
• 1:18:08
  On Year 5. Interesting.
• 1:18:10
  Interesting anyways. Nika Nika's over here.
• 1:18:15
  Interesting, interesting. I have 0 Bitcoin I lost in a
• 1:18:20
  body accident. Ladies and gentlemen, I do want
• 1:18:24
  to my my wife's in the back. She's like, what if if you guys
• 1:18:28
  enjoyed if if we babe, we lost it all.
• 1:18:32
  If you guys enjoyed today's show, make sure to smash that
• 1:18:34
  like button. Go check out Bitcoin math.org by
• 1:18:38
  the creator Shane Crockett. He's our special guest for today
• 1:18:41
  and of course, my legendary Co host who's always optimistic
• 1:18:45
  optimist fields guys, we'll see you tomorrow for a brand new
• 1:18:47
  episode. Take it easy.
• 1:18:49
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:18:52
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:18:55
  independence.