Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! 😰 + Stock Market News 14 May 2024

Transcript

Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! 😰 + Stock Market News 14 May 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Market live stream from the South of France, where sunshine has failed us today, as has inflation data just out.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It's not what you wanted it to be.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: We also have the meme stock rally back.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Everything is up hundreds of percents.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: The madness is there, and does this mean this is a warning?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Should we be more cautious?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Should we be more careful?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: What should we make of Fed Powell's speech today?
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Consumer inflation out tomorrow, the more important set of data.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: That's, and much more, is what I want you to get out of this today.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: So you are the smartest, best informed investor out there and you learn a little bit of my sort of ex-banker wisdom, if there is any left in this particular large head.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you, felix.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Buying GME?
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: That seems fairly unlikely, but let's walk through it.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I'm actually working on a video today, really walking through how that actually works and how we could actually possibly make money out of it in a more low-risk way.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I think there are some interesting thoughts there, but let me share with you a bunch of data points that are just out.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Actually, before we do that, let me share this with you this is the last 30 days of my trading account, and this, by the way, is a 30k portfolio, and it is because I know how to do this that I can book a one-way first class ticket to France and sit here and chill and then go somewhere else when I feel like it.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: That is what got me out of the rut.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: That's what got me financial freedom.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: And here is the month of April.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: You see the trades I did, how few trades I did.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And why am I telling you this?
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Because you can learn it for free in a very short period of time if you join me today, in about 12 hours, and see how we made about six grand in April on this small portfolio that I run publicly.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So come and join us over there.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And we also did pretty well last year.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: We did 105% return on capital employed last year, 126% return on capital the year before.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: And I'm not saying to you oh, you're definitely going to make the same results that I do.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: No, I'm not saying that to you, but what I am saying to you is come and join us, where is the banner?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: And I promise to show you exactly how I do it and how, in my opinion, anybody can do it.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: All I've got to find now is where you sign up for that I did put it somewhere, didn't I?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I put it somewhere?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: All right, let me find it for you.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So let's find it here she is in her beauty.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: There, she is a little large, but we can do something about that.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: There she is on a diet.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Come and join me today, 5 pm, eastern time.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: That's about 11 pm, if you are in Europe, like moi, and I will teach you my three-step rules.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you exactly how we do what we do, and it could be the one thing that gets you to your financial freedom right.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Could be, might be.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: It's free of charge.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: It's about an hour and a half of your time.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So come and hop over there and learn.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Do something for yourself to actually make money this year.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: So, inflation data what's out today?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: We've got PPI, that's producer price index, and you got to say when you do that, and we were expecting it to come in at about 0.3%, it's coming at 0.5.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: So that's not good.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: That's higher than expected.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Core PPI, which is producer price index, manipulated a little further than the usual set of data, was expected to come in at 0.2.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: It's coming at 0.5.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: That's also a huge miss and I didn't think food was part of PPI, but there we are.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Even excluding food, energy and trade, we're still at 0.4% inflation for the month.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Remember, there are like 12 of those in a year we were at.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Last month.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: We were at 0.2%.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So inflation seems to be rearing its ugly head again.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: And am I worried about it?
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure Bloomberg's got some exciting headlines on the subject here.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Us producer prices rose in April by more than projected.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Stock futures waver after PPI, with Powell in focus.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: This was a minor, but yeah, have a look at QQQ here.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: What about the goofing around with last month's revisions?
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: They are always goofing us around with their data points, but let me just show you what the impact was of that piece of data.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: This was the inflation data, right?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So market tanks about three points on the NASDAQ ETF and then immediately recovers pretty much the whole thing.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: It's probably not that important a data point.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Really, tomorrow's consumer price inflation Now I feel it's going to come in lower than expected because I think housing inflation is going to come down, and I'll show you a bit of data on that just in a moment.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Just again.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: So you are the smartest people out there, best informed people out there.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: But there are a few things that make me quite bullish.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Normally, stocks and bonds move in opposite directions and at the moment the correlation is off.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Essentially it's really rather off, and the last time we were that off was 1997.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: It was President of 1997.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Was it, was it a bill?
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Was it a bill?
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I did not.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I did not have that bill, I don't know.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: But either way, typically that kicks off a tremendous stock market rally.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: That's usually what happens, not a guarantee of course, but that's usually what happens.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So that makes me feel a little bit bullish.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: What also makes me feel rather bullish is the following and I know you can't see what I'm writing because it's a secret but $5.5 billion of buybacks share buybacks per day are expected.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Companies are buying $5.5 billion of their own shares a day at the moment and that's pretty tremendous support because even if bad stuff happens, they're still buying.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: They're providing sort of a floor under the market right.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: So that makes me feel quite bullish.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: There's another thing that makes me feel very bullish is it's fat people and Novo Nordisk, the stock I've been talking about quite a bit.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: You make WeGoV right, the fat loss drug.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Apparently, in trials, using Wegovi reduces risk of heart attack and stroke.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: So it's possible that, therefore, that Wegovi is going to be prescribed to everybody who's at risk of heart attack and stroke.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Now, I am not a scientist, I'm not a doctor, but my thinking is that, well, if you are less fat, you put less strain on the heart and on your general cardiovascular system and therefore you are at less risk of heart attack and stroke.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: So it's just a question of you take the govi, you lose weight.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Therefore, there's less of that.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: But apparently the FDA doesn't think that far ahead and they just say oh my god, it solves heart attack, brilliant, prescribe it to everybody.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Now you're just making people thinner, which is what typically makes you more healthy, says this thin person here.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: All right, so that's pretty good.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: The VIX, the fear index VIX fear index.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: It's a huge thing if you're a trader like me.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: We look at this all the time.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: We're down here, we're at what we call calm C-A-L-M, very, very calm.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: We're neither concerned nor stressed, nor are we panicking.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: We don't need to take Wegovy for our hearts.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: And again, that happens when the market typically goes up and it's all good and very, very happy.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Now why do I care so much about inflation data coming out tomorrow, because this beautiful chart here from Bloomberg shows you by what amount CPI which is inflation the black bars have moved the S&P.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: In April that was 1%, here 1%.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: In February it was 1.5%.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: In March it was over 1%.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: In November it was almost 2%.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So that's a one-day change, right?
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: So pretty crazy stuff.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: So, yes, we do deeply, deeply care about the inflation that are coming out tomorrow.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Now do I think that today's PPI is an indicator that's good for tomorrow's consumer price inflation?
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I don't.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I actually think, and this is a Bloomberg screenshot.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: And what's been causing all the inflation?
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Well, let me find a pen that you could see on here.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: That number here, right, that's pretty bad.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: That number, 2.5%, is pretty bad.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: And the one there at the top, 4.7%, is also pretty bad.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: So what are those bad, naughty items on the list?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Well, vehicle insurance is one, motor vehicle insurance is one, the other one is just transportation services generally, and the top is the headline inflation super call.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: So why are vehicle costs going up so much?
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Well, this data is laggy as hell.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: It's like the slowest thing ever.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Do you remember?
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: About 18 months ago, car prices, truck prices, were going up a lot.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: There was a shortage of the things that then, of course, came back down.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: My guess is that this data is so old that we're still seeing that increase.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: When secondhand cars were trading at gold price levels and that kind of thing making the GME traders jealous, and what happened after that?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Second-hand car prices completely collapsed.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: So I think we're going to see the collapse of transportation prices.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: That's just my particular view on that, and I'll explain that a little bit on Sunday as well.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: But if you want to learn how we make money and why I'm always smiling, last 30 days we made about four grand on the 30K portfolio, made about six grand in April on the 30K portfolio and we made about 100% plus in 2023 and 2022, returning Capital Employed.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: And if you want to learn how we do that, come and join me at felixrentsorg webinar in about 12 hours and I will teach you exactly how we do what we do.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: There you are that we can see myself lots of times because I'm on a laptop in my little place here in South of France.