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Why has Florida flipped from sellers to buyers market? · The Financial Exchange Show

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1:03
Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange with Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane.
1:09
Speaker 2: Good morning, and welcome back to the Financial Exchange. We
1:13
Speaker 2: continue a busy week here on all sorts of financial
1:17
Speaker 2: data and earnings coming out. So in terms of earnings releases,
1:22
Speaker 2: we heard from a number of financial companies this morning,
1:26
Speaker 2: JP Morgan, Chase, Wells, Fargo, Blackrocks, City Group, and Bank
1:30
Speaker 2: of New York Melon, as well as some other ones
1:32
Speaker 2: but local to the Boston area. So I mentioned State
1:35
Speaker 2: treat all reporting earnings this morning. We will hear from
1:38
Speaker 2: the likes of Johnson and Johnson, Bank of America, ASML, Morgan, Stanley,
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Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs tomorrow, and then Thursday, a very busy day,
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Speaker 2: we will get earnings releases from Netflix, ge Aerospace, Nevardes,
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Speaker 2: Abbott Labs, Pepsi Co, amongst others on Thursday, and then
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Speaker 2: continue right into next week. At eight thirty eight this morning,
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Speaker 2: we got a release on inflation from the Consumer Price
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Speaker 2: Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We'll get into
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Speaker 2: that in just a second. We have a number of
2:11
Speaker 2: Fed Reserve governors speaking. We're going to get the Producer
2:15
Speaker 2: Price Index tomorrow, which some have been looking at as hey,
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Speaker 2: maybe this will be a better indicator of where inflation
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Speaker 2: is showing up. If it's not showing up in consumer prices,
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Speaker 2: perhaps it shows up in producer prices. We shall see.
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Speaker 2: You have the release of the FED Beige Book on Wednesday,
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Speaker 2: as well, initial jobless claims, retail sales on Thursday, frankly,
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Speaker 2: a whole bunch of other data coming out as well,
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Speaker 2: and then Friday, both housing starts, building permits, and consumer
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Speaker 2: sentiment all released on Friday. So as I mentioned, busy
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Speaker 2: week here on the Financial Exchange, and a whole bunch
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Speaker 2: of other stuff that wasn't even on the docket that
2:52
Speaker 2: is getting released and announced today as well, including in
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Speaker 2: Video's ability to sell their chips to China driving markets
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Speaker 2: this morning. Paul. When it comes to that CPI release,
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Speaker 2: I know we covered it briefly, but in terms of
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Speaker 2: taking a look at the numbers there, we saw headline
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Speaker 2: inflation month over month increasing zero point three percent in
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Speaker 2: the month of June. When you strip out the food
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Speaker 2: and energy portion, it was a little bit less than that,
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Speaker 2: coming at zero point two percent. On the year over
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Speaker 2: year numbers two point seven and two point nine percent, respectively.
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Speaker 2: This is the highest reading of overall inflation we've gotten
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Speaker 2: since January of this year. But I think when we
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Speaker 2: look under the hood and kind of study it, I
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Speaker 2: didn't find anything alarming here. I also didn't find much
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Speaker 2: evidence of tariff related inflation.
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Speaker 3: No.
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Speaker 4: That was the major takeaway is that while the reading
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Speaker 4: was a little hotter than anticipated, if you look underneath
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Speaker 4: the surface, some of the items were likely not to
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Speaker 4: be repeatable in future months, in terms of the energy
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Speaker 4: bump that we saw that was close to one percent,
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Speaker 4: as well as some declines in new and.
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Speaker 3: Used vehicle prices.
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Speaker 4: If someone were to cherry pick and try and point
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Speaker 4: at some tariff impact on this inflation data, there was
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Speaker 4: a little bit in terms of increases that we saw
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Speaker 4: to different apparel items and kids toys and other areas
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Speaker 4: that are significantly relyant on imports from overseas that did
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Speaker 4: see some price upticks. But it's really important that the
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Speaker 4: framework we always keep in mind with these inflation reports
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Speaker 4: is you want to see a trend over several months
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Speaker 4: before jumping to a conclusion that prices are trending in
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Speaker 4: a certain direction.
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Speaker 2: So the next Federal Reserve meeting comes up now in
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Speaker 2: fifteen days on July thirtieth, it's widely anticipated the Fed
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Speaker 2: won't be moving at that meeting. The next one after
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Speaker 2: that comes September seventeenth. I am rather now interested though,
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Speaker 2: in hearing from Powell in terms of how he responds
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Speaker 2: to the new announcement regarding tariffs. Obviously, we've had several
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Speaker 2: months now of inflation data as well as employment data
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Speaker 2: to take a look at the effect of the initial
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Speaker 2: tariff announcements from April. We've seen a number of those
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Speaker 2: rolled back. We now see the new threats of tariffs
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Speaker 2: that are due to go into place the day after
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Speaker 2: the Federal Reserves announcement and meeting, and so it's going
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Speaker 2: to be interesting to me to see, Okay, does he
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Speaker 2: start moving from that position in any meaningful way, or
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Speaker 2: does he put a deadline on it to say, yeah,
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Speaker 2: if we don't see tariff effects in the data by
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Speaker 2: this date, then we're going to be prepared to put
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Speaker 2: to the side and start moving away from it, because
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Speaker 2: so far his announcements have been Look, we don't know
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Speaker 2: what the effects of tariffs are going to be. We
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Speaker 2: don't know what the tariff rates themselves are going to be,
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Speaker 2: and how can we possibly conduct appropriate policy when we
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Speaker 2: don't know those things at this point? And so the
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Speaker 2: best thing for us to do is stay pat We're
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Speaker 2: now a few months out from I think those same comments, right,
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Speaker 2: that was largely his commentary back in March and April.
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Speaker 2: We're now in July, and you again we pointed to
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Speaker 2: very little evidence that you can point to directly and say, hey,
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Speaker 2: there's a terriff impact, there's a tariff effect on profitability
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Speaker 2: or growth or employment or inflation, And so how does
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Speaker 2: he respond to those critiques at this July thirtieth meeting
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Speaker 2: is kind of what I'm going to be looking for.
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Speaker 4: I will, first of all, a lot could change in
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Speaker 4: fifteen days we've learned with this administration in terms on
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Speaker 4: what that August first deadline means, or if it gets
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Speaker 4: pushed back or anything like that. From a strategic standpoint,
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Speaker 4: if I'm sitting in policy, you probably just want to
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Speaker 4: punt that meeting in a sense of just say, hey,
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Speaker 4: you know, we're going to keep it knowing it we
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Speaker 4: don't know anything. Because there's a good amount of gap
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Speaker 4: in time between that July thirtieth meeting and the September seventeenth,
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Speaker 4: one pretty substantial period that you'll have a lot of
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Speaker 4: economic reports come out over the course of August and
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Speaker 4: September to try and get some more evidence.
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Speaker 2: So that's said, I would have said the same thing
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Speaker 2: back in March and April. Yeah. Yeah, you know, we're
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Speaker 2: now three months later. We have no further clarity around
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Speaker 2: what the average effective terariffrerate is going to be and
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Speaker 2: what the effect on prices will be September.
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Speaker 4: You just you would have to think in mid September
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Speaker 4: that that would be fully played out.
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Speaker 3: But when the deadlines keep getting moves.
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Speaker 2: What do you think on it?
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Speaker 1: No.
7:20
Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary Scott Beson says a formal process for Powell's
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Speaker 2: successor has now started. So a few things about this one.
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Speaker 2: J Powell's term as Chair of the Federal Reserve ends
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Speaker 2: in May of twenty twenty six. By tradition, most chair
7:34
Speaker 2: persons step down from their role of governor of the
7:38
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve, but they are not required to, and so
7:42
Speaker 2: they are now putting a bit of a pressure campaign
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Speaker 2: on hey, not only are is your term going to end,
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Speaker 2: but you need to step down from the Federal Reserve
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Speaker 2: in general, because to be fair, it's like having I
7:54
Speaker 2: don't know, it's like having the former president as your
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Speaker 2: economic secretary going to be given a lot of voice
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Speaker 2: and asked a lot of questions about where they think
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Speaker 2: policy is going. It's gonna be tough for the new
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Speaker 2: FED chair to actually govern appropriately with that presence still there.
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Speaker 2: He has not made any comments as to whether or
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Speaker 2: not he's going to the There's all sorts of stories
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Speaker 2: making their way through about who the next pick is
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Speaker 2: going to be and what that next pick thinks policy
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Speaker 2: should look like. I don't think it's really worth going
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Speaker 2: into in detail. Like, for instance, Kevin worsh who was
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Speaker 2: a George W. Bush appointee and served in the Federal
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Speaker 2: Reserve for several years during the Great Financial Crisis, is
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Speaker 2: apparently in contention.
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Speaker 3: And of course he's coming on saying let's.
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Speaker 2: Cut rates naturally if you want the job, And that's
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Speaker 2: what these pieces are, yeah, and lobbying for the position, right,
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Speaker 2: They are all just that. I think the answer is
8:52
Speaker 2: I have no idea who the next FED chair pick
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Speaker 2: is going to be. The question is will major investors.
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Speaker 2: I think that's who this really matters for. Will major
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Speaker 2: investors have a negative view regardless of this next FED
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Speaker 2: chair pick? Like, certainly, I think there's a lot of
9:14
Speaker 2: concerns should Donald Trump and the White House remove j Powell,
9:19
Speaker 2: which you know, I know that's quieted down, but it
9:20
Speaker 2: seems to be heating up once again with all sorts
9:23
Speaker 2: of you know, questions about firing for cause. But there
9:27
Speaker 2: has been now so much hand ringing over we want
9:31
Speaker 2: interest rates lower, we want interest rates lower, that there's
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Speaker 2: a compelling argument in my mind that hey, whoever that
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Speaker 2: next chair pick is is going to have a very
9:38
Speaker 2: difficult time convincing the world that they are independent from
9:42
Speaker 2: the influence of the White House. It's going to be very,
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Speaker 2: very challenging. And again that might not matter to every
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Speaker 2: day Joe, but it certainly matters if you are the
9:54
Speaker 2: European Central Bank considering whether to you know, put billions
9:58
Speaker 2: of dollars back into the US trade market. It matters
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Speaker 2: if you are the I don't know, Australian pension fund
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Speaker 2: deciding whether or not to buy fifteen year treasuries for
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Speaker 2: your pension. And that is the potential damage you do
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Speaker 2: by injecting all this politics into that fed chair pick.
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Speaker 2: We got to take a quick break. When we come back,
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Speaker 2: we're gonna be joined by Jeff Ostrowski from Bank Rate
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Speaker 2: talking to us about how people are dealing with the
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Speaker 2: real estate market. You know, when it comes to interest
10:28
Speaker 2: rates where they are, mortgage rates where they are, and
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Speaker 2: their willingness to sell those homes. That's next on the
10:34
Speaker 2: Financial Exchange.
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Speaker 2: In an awesome piece of irony, new chief executive Brian
12:34
Speaker 2: Nickel of Starbucks is making some changes to the in
12:38
Speaker 2: office requirements for the white collar workers of Starbucks. We're
12:42
Speaker 2: not talking about baristas. Obviously, you need to be how
12:45
Speaker 2: to do that?
12:46
Speaker 3: Rocation technology hasn't gone that far.
12:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not quite there, but the current requirement is
12:53
Speaker 2: that those white collar workers get in the office three
12:55
Speaker 2: days a week. The new requirement is going to be
12:58
Speaker 2: four days a week. Why I consider this to be
13:00
Speaker 2: a little bit funny is because as part of Brian
13:03
Speaker 2: Nichols deal with Starbucks, he is commuting to the corporate headquarters,
13:10
Speaker 2: which is in Seattle, via the Starbucks private jet, and
13:14
Speaker 2: he's allowed to remain and live in his home in
13:18
Speaker 2: southern California, which again is just a little bit funny,
13:21
Speaker 2: as you asked those employees to get back to the
13:23
Speaker 2: office as soon as possible. Here, Look, this is not
13:28
Speaker 2: the only company doing this, and I view this it's
13:30
Speaker 2: been a little bit a little while since we've had
13:32
Speaker 2: one of these announcements, but I view it really the
13:35
Speaker 2: same way as what we saw from Amazon and others.
13:38
Speaker 2: And I actually bet that Starbucks doesn't even have enough
13:40
Speaker 2: seats for all these workers to get back into the office.
13:43
Speaker 2: This is designed to do one thing. Yeah, takeodbye. I mean,
13:48
Speaker 2: there's not a huge difference in my view between three
13:51
Speaker 2: and four days in the office per week. You are
13:54
Speaker 2: likely getting all the synergies you might get if you
13:57
Speaker 2: are coordinating your three days in the office. Well, and
14:01
Speaker 2: so I think that this is, you know, more in
14:04
Speaker 2: the way of the turnaround plan that they had already
14:06
Speaker 2: been focusing on. Hey, let's go find these employees that
14:08
Speaker 2: are not really willing to give it they're all and
14:11
Speaker 2: say goodbye to them. They already laid off eleven hundred
14:14
Speaker 2: corporate workers back in February of this year, and I
14:17
Speaker 2: think this is just another step in that direction of saying, hey,
14:21
Speaker 2: we don't need these people on the staff, and so
14:24
Speaker 2: let's uh, let's take a take a twipe pet. But
14:29
Speaker 2: it is particularly funny my.
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Speaker 4: First takeaway Mike, when whenever the Star, I was like,
14:33
Speaker 4: doesn't he live in southern California? Che lives in southern California,
14:38
Speaker 4: yet he is forced ammer to come in four days
14:40
Speaker 4: a week. It does seem like, I guess he is
14:42
Speaker 4: in office. You would assume those four days a week
14:46
Speaker 4: with that commute.
14:47
Speaker 2: But joining us now is Jeff Ostrowski from bank Rate.
14:54
Speaker 2: They've got a new survey out that they did of
14:56
Speaker 2: home buyers and home sellers, and Jeff's thanks so much
14:59
Speaker 2: for joining us.
15:00
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, thanks for having me. We're really interested in
15:03
Speaker 6: this whole mortgage lock in effect, and how mortgage rates
15:07
Speaker 6: are affecting the housing.
15:08
Speaker 2: Market as m I And so, speaking of those mortgage rates,
15:11
Speaker 2: we are sitting right now, according to Mortgage News Daily,
15:13
Speaker 2: with a thirty year fixed rate average of six point
15:16
Speaker 2: eighty three percent, and we have seen a meaningful increase
15:21
Speaker 2: in the number of homes for sale over the course
15:24
Speaker 2: of the last few years. I get this question all
15:27
Speaker 2: the time, Jeff. Is this a buyer's market, a seller's market,
15:30
Speaker 2: or some weird combination of the two. Yeah, I would.
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Speaker 6: Say that last option. It's a buyer's market in some
15:37
Speaker 6: parts of the country at Florida, Texas, maybe parts of
15:41
Speaker 6: the Mountain West, those super hot markets that were intense
15:44
Speaker 6: sellers markets have really shifted to buyer's market.
15:47
Speaker 2: So houses are.
15:48
Speaker 6: Sitting, there are a lot of choices, there's a lot
15:50
Speaker 6: of new construction, so those places are buyer's markets. And
15:54
Speaker 6: then a bit surprisingly, there are a lot of markets
15:56
Speaker 6: in the Northeast and the Midwest that have turned very
15:59
Speaker 6: much into seller's market. So double digit price appreciation and
16:03
Speaker 6: so just really intriguing to see the regional differences in
16:06
Speaker 6: the housing market right now. So I guess the answer
16:08
Speaker 6: is kind of like all of the above none of
16:10
Speaker 6: the above, just depending on where in the country you're
16:12
Speaker 6: looking for a home.
16:13
Speaker 2: So what did your survey found find when they asked folks, Hey,
16:17
Speaker 2: what's going to get you into the comfort level for
16:19
Speaker 2: listing your home for sale sometime in the next year.
16:23
Speaker 6: Yeah, we found that mortgage lock in effect is still
16:26
Speaker 6: in effect. So most Americans just aren't even thinking about
16:32
Speaker 6: selling a home and buying another one now, just because
16:34
Speaker 6: of the combination of record high home prices and mortgage
16:37
Speaker 6: rates that are like more than twice those three percent
16:40
Speaker 6: rates they locked in back during the pandemic. So we
16:43
Speaker 6: really found that there's just not a lot of movement
16:45
Speaker 6: in the housing market. Buyers just don't feel motivated or
16:49
Speaker 6: sellers don't feel motivated to put their homes on the market.
16:52
Speaker 6: Buyers don't feel real motivated to buy with this combination
16:55
Speaker 6: of rates near seven percent as you mentioned, and then
16:58
Speaker 6: home prices at record highs.
17:00
Speaker 2: Get the piece about sellers, right, If you're locked into
17:03
Speaker 2: a three percent mortgage rate, you know it's tough to
17:06
Speaker 2: envision sell in that home. On the buyer side, I'm
17:09
Speaker 2: just surprised we aren't getting more comfortable and more normalized
17:13
Speaker 2: with this Your survey found that what about fifty one
17:15
Speaker 2: percent of homeowners say they would be uncomfortable purchasing another
17:19
Speaker 2: home no matter what happens with mortgage rates.
17:22
Speaker 6: Yeah. Yeah, and I mean who knows, We're just that's
17:25
Speaker 6: one of those things that's sort of like the consumer
17:26
Speaker 6: Confidence survey. You're asking people to about their feelings, which
17:30
Speaker 6: you know, who knows that that really lines up with
17:33
Speaker 6: what they would actually do. But yeah, I mean homeowner
17:37
Speaker 6: or you know, Americans are still very much looking in
17:40
Speaker 6: the rear view mirror. They see those those three percent
17:42
Speaker 6: mortgage rates of a few years ago as the good
17:44
Speaker 6: old days. They're anchoring off that, and that's what they
17:46
Speaker 6: really want.
17:47
Speaker 2: Do you see a threshold from this survey where hey,
17:50
Speaker 2: if rates actually do get below this X y Z level,
17:54
Speaker 2: that you know, buyers and sellers start returning to the
17:57
Speaker 2: market or is it not easy to really play that out?
18:00
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's hard to play it out. I mean everyone
18:02
Speaker 6: wants rates below six percent, A lot of people want
18:04
Speaker 6: rates below five percent, and it but everyone forgets that
18:08
Speaker 6: for rates to get that low, something really bad would
18:11
Speaker 6: have to happen in the economy. So then that that
18:13
Speaker 6: might make them less motivated to do a big transaction.
18:17
Speaker 2: Jeff Strowski joining us today from bank Rate, talking to
18:20
Speaker 2: us about the survey of buyers and sellers on the
18:24
Speaker 2: housing market. Only about thirty seconds here, Jeff, any other
18:26
Speaker 2: big conclusions you had from asking so many people this
18:29
Speaker 2: question when it came to their mortgage rates and their
18:31
Speaker 2: appetite for the housing market.
18:34
Speaker 6: Just that you know, Americans are still looking back to
18:37
Speaker 6: the quote unquote good old days of low rates, even
18:40
Speaker 6: though rates were super low because the economy was crashing,
18:44
Speaker 6: and you know, everyone sort of waiting for Americans to
18:46
Speaker 6: get past three percent mortgage rates, and that moment still
18:49
Speaker 6: has not arrived.
18:51
Speaker 2: Jeffistrowski from bank Rate join us today talk about the
18:53
Speaker 2: housing market. Appreciated a lot, Jeff, thanks so much, and
18:56
Speaker 2: we will talk to you again soon. Okay, thank you.
18:59
Speaker 2: Speaking of the housing market, I always just like to
19:02
Speaker 2: keep an eye on this other number. So, as of
19:04
Speaker 2: June twenty twenty five, the total number of listings in
19:08
Speaker 2: the United States, this would include condos, lots of land,
19:11
Speaker 2: et cetera, sat at one point eight one point zero
19:15
Speaker 2: eight two million units for sale. That is a post
19:20
Speaker 2: pandemic high. It is also down from a June twenty
19:24
Speaker 2: nineteen level of over one point two million units for sale.
19:28
Speaker 2: Quick Break, Wall Street watches.
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Speaker 1: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
19:44
Speaker 1: Every day, It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
19:48
Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete
19:54
Speaker 1: look at what's moving market so far today right here
19:57
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:00
Speaker 5: The Markets Invix's territory with a busy day underway. As
20:03
Speaker 5: Wall Street reacts to the Consumer Price Index for the
20:06
Speaker 5: latest measure on inflation, where consumer prices increased two point
20:10
Speaker 5: seven percent on an annual basis, slightly higher than estimates
20:14
Speaker 5: of two point six percent. Investors also sifting through second
20:17
Speaker 5: quarter bank earnings and also reacting to major news from
20:21
Speaker 5: InVideo this morning. At the moment, the Dow is down
20:26
Speaker 5: by six tenths of one percent or two hundred and
20:28
Speaker 5: seventy three points, SMP five hundred mostly flat, dipping by
20:32
Speaker 5: only one point now, Nasdaq is up by six tenths
20:36
Speaker 5: of one percent or one hundred and thirty one points.
20:38
Speaker 5: Russell two thousand is off by nine tenths of one percent.
20:41
Speaker 5: Ten youre Treasure reeled up six basis points now a
20:44
Speaker 5: four point four eight seven percent, and crude oil is
20:48
Speaker 5: off about six tenths of one percent, trading at sixty
20:51
Speaker 5: six dollars and sixty cents a barrel. JP Morgan Chase
20:56
Speaker 5: posted a better than expected quarterly profit on the heels
20:59
Speaker 5: of its investment, banking and trading revenue. That stock down
21:03
Speaker 5: by six tenths of one percent. Wells Fargo falling over
21:06
Speaker 5: five percent after the bank lowered its twenty twenty five
21:09
Speaker 5: net income guidance to roughly in line with twenty twenty
21:12
Speaker 5: four levels. City Group beat second quarter expectations, lifted by
21:18
Speaker 5: higher fees from deal making trading. That stock is up
21:20
Speaker 5: by one percent, and Blackrock reported higher than expected quarterly
21:24
Speaker 5: earnings per share but disappointed on revenue. Black rocked down
21:27
Speaker 5: by over five percent. Outside of bank earnings, and Video
21:32
Speaker 5: shares are up over four percent after the AI in
21:35
Speaker 5: Chip Giant received assurances from the White House that it
21:38
Speaker 5: can sell its eighth twenty artificial chips in China. Other
21:41
Speaker 5: chip makers, including AMD and Taiwan Semiconductor are seeing gains
21:45
Speaker 5: on the news as well. According to The Wall Street Journal,
21:48
Speaker 5: Tesla's top sales executive in North America has left. According
21:53
Speaker 5: to people familiar with the matter, The latest high level
21:55
Speaker 5: departure at the automaker that is facing a steep drop
21:59
Speaker 5: in sales. Tesla is down by one percent. More breaking
22:03
Speaker 5: news in the tech space after Apple and minor MP
22:06
Speaker 5: Materials announced a five hundred million dollars deal for Rare
22:09
Speaker 5: Earth's magnets and the development of a recycling facility that
22:13
Speaker 5: will reinforce the iPhone maker's US supply chain. Apple up
22:17
Speaker 5: by one percent, while MP Materials is surging twenty four percent.
22:22
Speaker 5: Now Core Weave stock up more than eight percent after
22:25
Speaker 5: the company announced a six billion dollar AI data center
22:28
Speaker 5: project in Pennsylvania. And tomorrow morning, ahead of the opening, Bell,
22:32
Speaker 5: Johnson and Johnson, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley,
22:35
Speaker 5: and ASML will report their second quarter results. I'm Tucker
22:40
Speaker 5: Silva and that is Wall Street Watch and the tribute
22:43
Speaker 5: question we asked on the prior segment was how much
22:45
Speaker 5: did the US pay Russia for Alaska? That would be
22:49
Speaker 5: seven million dollars. Bob from North Andover, Mass was our
22:53
Speaker 5: winner today, taking home the Financial Exchange Show t shirt.
22:56
Speaker 5: Congrats to Bob, and we play trivia every day here
22:59
Speaker 5: in the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange.
23:03
Speaker 2: Show Dot com MarketWatch has a piece this morning to
23:08
Speaker 2: quote who they quoted in the in the article that
23:11
Speaker 2: David Kelly, who's a chief Global status at JP Morgan
23:14
Speaker 2: Asset Management, sent a note out yesterday quote the new
23:18
Speaker 2: administration has implemented radical policy changes that should, at least
23:21
Speaker 2: in theory, have boosted inflation and slowed growth. And yet
23:25
Speaker 2: almost six months after inauguration day, both unemployment and inflation
23:29
Speaker 2: are virtually unchanged from the start of the year, while
23:32
Speaker 2: US stocks and bonds have generated healthy year to date returns.
23:35
Speaker 2: Those healthy rear to date returns. Specifically, the S and
23:38
Speaker 2: P five hundred has returned over six and a half
23:40
Speaker 2: percent for this period, where you know, just fractions of
23:44
Speaker 2: a percent away from all time highs reached back on
23:47
Speaker 2: July tenth, And the bond market has also fared just fine,
23:51
Speaker 2: with returns in the low threes at this point in time.
23:55
Speaker 2: And I think it is lost left a lot of
23:57
Speaker 2: investors kind of scratching their heads, but is quite honestly
24:02
Speaker 2: reminiscent of every political story when it comes to markets
24:06
Speaker 2: that we have covered over the last several years. I
24:10
Speaker 2: just bring this up, Paul and ask you this how
24:13
Speaker 2: many times over the course of your career, have you
24:15
Speaker 2: had an investor on either side of the political aisle
24:18
Speaker 2: say I disagree with this person who is elected. I'm
24:21
Speaker 2: worried about the direction to the company, and I want
24:25
Speaker 2: to change my portfolio in some way. I want to
24:29
Speaker 2: make myself more aggressive, I want to make myself more conservative,
24:32
Speaker 2: I want to go invest overseas. And to me, the
24:37
Speaker 2: lesson with all of this is a politics of the moment.
24:42
Speaker 2: Quite honestly, usually don't change much about the direction of
24:47
Speaker 2: the economy as a whole. The US economy is pretty
24:50
Speaker 2: darn resilient, even with what we are seeing right now,
24:53
Speaker 2: which you could argue are some of the most significant
24:55
Speaker 2: changes to the structure of the US economy in quite
24:58
Speaker 2: some time. Seeing it again, where yeah, things have changed
25:03
Speaker 2: a fair bit, but companies are figuring out how to
25:05
Speaker 2: make money. The economy is still growing, and you know,
25:08
Speaker 2: things have not completely I don't know, thrown up on themselves,
25:12
Speaker 2: as plenty of people have been predicting. They are dangerous
25:15
Speaker 2: to that too. Don't get me wrong, but my experience
25:18
Speaker 2: at least has been that most of the time, when
25:22
Speaker 2: people let those fears of politics inject themselves into their
25:26
Speaker 2: investment portfolio, it ends up being a.
25:29
Speaker 3: Mistake, no question about it.
25:30
Speaker 4: I mean this, it's always convenient to say this time
25:34
Speaker 4: was a little bit a bit different. But the reciprocal
25:36
Speaker 4: tariffs that were mentioned initially on April second, if they
25:42
Speaker 4: were instituted in what they had been announced as where
25:46
Speaker 4: they would go through, that would have had a dramatic
25:49
Speaker 4: negative impact on the US economy. But they were arised
25:52
Speaker 4: significantly from what the initial announcement was. But it is
25:55
Speaker 4: a good overarching point. It's really important to keep in
25:58
Speaker 4: mind that there are always going to be geopolitical issues
26:03
Speaker 4: that the market has to deal with. Typically when you're
26:07
Speaker 4: buying into the stock market and as an investor, what
26:10
Speaker 4: you are leaning on is this idea that the companies
26:15
Speaker 4: that make up whatever indicy that you're purchasing are going
26:18
Speaker 4: to continue to grow their earnings year after year after year,
26:21
Speaker 4: regardless of the geopolitical or just the market conditions. That
26:26
Speaker 4: is really what it means to be invested in the market,
26:30
Speaker 4: and for decades the United States has continue to do that,
26:34
Speaker 4: and for those that are investors, we see no reason
26:38
Speaker 4: for that to change over the future decades.
26:40
Speaker 2: That's the hope where I think this lands for me,
26:43
Speaker 2: For investors, and the message and the question you should
26:46
Speaker 2: ask yourself as an investor is imagine the person you
26:49
Speaker 2: most disagree with politically being the next president. I don't
26:54
Speaker 2: need to put any words in people's mouths. AOC or
26:57
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Warren our hot button one for a lot of folks.
27:02
Speaker 2: Imagine that person leading the country next. How would it
27:04
Speaker 2: affect your investment philosophy? And if you can't answer honestly that, hey,
27:09
Speaker 2: I would easily be able to just ignore the politics
27:12
Speaker 2: of that, and you stay with my investment strategy, then
27:16
Speaker 2: you're probably doing the right thing. If you are not
27:18
Speaker 2: quite on that bandwagon, then speaking to a professional about
27:23
Speaker 2: how you're invested today and what your long term plan
27:26
Speaker 2: looks like, again, in my experience, can be extremely beneficial
27:31
Speaker 2: if you are looking for some guidance on that front.
27:35
Speaker 2: Maybe you've been saving up for retirement all these years
27:38
Speaker 2: and you're finally seeing the light at the end of
27:39
Speaker 2: the tunnel. Give the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group or
27:42
Speaker 2: ring numbers eight hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
27:46
Speaker 2: We sit down for consultations with folks that are in
27:50
Speaker 2: the stage of life all the time and trying to
27:52
Speaker 2: figure out where do they go next with their overall
27:55
Speaker 2: financial strategy. That number once again for the arm Strong
27:58
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28:02
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28:03
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
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Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
28:08
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
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Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
28:14
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
28:17
Speaker 1: advisory services.
28:19
Speaker 2: I have a piece here about young working adults that
28:22
Speaker 2: I caught my eye because it's one of the first
28:25
Speaker 2: data points that I've seen that contradicts my own view
28:30
Speaker 2: of the young youth employment rate or youth unemployment rate.
28:34
Speaker 2: Problem is, it's from a survey that I've never heard of.
28:36
Speaker 2: It's from a company that's called kick Resume that did
28:39
Speaker 2: their survey. But what they found is that fifty eight
28:43
Speaker 2: percent of students who graduated within the last year are
28:46
Speaker 2: still looking for their first job. Meanwhile, just twenty five
28:51
Speaker 2: percent of graduates in previous years, such as millennials, gen X, predecessors, etc.
28:56
Speaker 2: Struggled that hard to land their first work out outside
29:00
Speaker 2: of college. So I don't know anything about this kick
29:05
Speaker 2: resume company. If it is in fact true that you know,
29:09
Speaker 2: the rate of college grads without a job is double
29:12
Speaker 2: what it was in previous generations, it's going to show
29:15
Speaker 2: up in the data pretty quickly. I'll point out one
29:17
Speaker 2: data series that I do track and trust fairly well,
29:21
Speaker 2: which is data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who's
29:25
Speaker 2: been tracking this stuff for decades now. And what they
29:29
Speaker 2: found is that, specifically they ask like, do you have
29:32
Speaker 2: a college degree? How old are you? Uh? They found
29:35
Speaker 2: that the unemployment rate for college grads with a bachelor's degree,
29:40
Speaker 2: specifically between the age of twenty to twenty four, in
29:43
Speaker 2: June of this year was seven point three percent. So
29:47
Speaker 2: I looked back and said, okay, well, how does that
29:49
Speaker 2: compare to say, two thousand and nine, when things were
29:54
Speaker 2: pretty darn bad. And the answer is it was a
29:57
Speaker 2: fair bit higher. In onnin it was ten point eight
29:59
Speaker 2: percent in two thousand and nine, and twenty ten it
30:01
Speaker 2: was ten point nine percent. In twenty eleven, we were
30:04
Speaker 2: sitting at twelve percent for that youth unemployment rate. So
30:09
Speaker 2: far be it from me to say that this can't
30:11
Speaker 2: go up. It certainly can, but we're sitting at seven
30:13
Speaker 2: point three percent right now for that demographic. That is high.
30:18
Speaker 2: That is well higher than it was back in other
30:21
Speaker 2: times during the late twenty tens. Don't get me wrong,
30:24
Speaker 2: but it is not, at least in my mind, getting
30:28
Speaker 2: to the level that we should be alarmist about it.
30:32
Speaker 2: And this seems a bit alarmist. And I don't know
30:35
Speaker 2: where they got their data, but I have not seen
30:37
Speaker 2: it confirmed pretty much anywhere else.
30:38
Speaker 4: I have a lot of skepticism with the numbers, too,
30:42
Speaker 4: being in the millennial demographic. The percentages here are so vast,
30:49
Speaker 4: there's such a big gap. But back at fifty eight
30:51
Speaker 4: percent of students who graduated in the last year looking
30:55
Speaker 4: for the first job versus twenty five percent in prior years,
30:58
Speaker 4: and it's saying four millennial and X predecessors. I just
31:01
Speaker 4: don't feel that the labor market is that substantially worse
31:05
Speaker 4: for reach of recent college graduates than it was.
31:08
Speaker 2: Really trying to check myself here, because you know, I did,
31:11
Speaker 2: like you did, graduate right following the Great Recession, and
31:14
Speaker 2: it was a pretty rough job market, and so I'm
31:17
Speaker 2: trying to, you know, set aside my quick complaining gen
31:20
Speaker 2: zers and get to work attitude, which definitely have some
31:24
Speaker 2: of that bias in me. But we'll see because this
31:26
Speaker 2: will play out in the data. We measure this type
31:28
Speaker 2: of stuff with government statistics, and so we'll find out.
31:32
Speaker 2: But this is the first published piece that I saw
31:34
Speaker 2: with some sort of data that was collected on surveys
31:37
Speaker 2: about the employment rate for those younger workers. Let's take
31:40
Speaker 2: a quick break when we come back. Stack Roulette.
31:44
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31:47
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32:26
Speaker 2: Paul, it is time for stacked Roulette. What do you
32:28
Speaker 2: have for us, Mike?
32:29
Speaker 4: This story hits close to home. It's the piece in
32:32
Speaker 4: the New York Times saying the kids are all all right,
32:36
Speaker 4: just not at a brewery.
32:37
Speaker 3: Wow, a piece that.
32:40
Speaker 4: This is of great concern to me because the piece
32:44
Speaker 4: goes on.
32:44
Speaker 2: The all spends his entire weekend at breweries with children.
32:48
Speaker 4: Just let us have one place, man, come on, just
32:50
Speaker 4: show some sympathy for the people out there with young kids.
32:54
Speaker 4: This is a trend going across the nation where breweries
32:57
Speaker 4: are placed. As someone who has three kids into the
33:00
Speaker 4: age of four that now a three, it's it's pretty
33:03
Speaker 4: hard to pull this off. But when we had less,
33:05
Speaker 4: it was easier to bring them to a brewery wide
33:07
Speaker 4: open space, whether it's at former industrial sites a lot
33:12
Speaker 4: of outdoor space, it's it's much easier to have them
33:15
Speaker 4: run loose in these places than a sit down restaurant
33:19
Speaker 4: where they are much more confined to the tables.
33:23
Speaker 5: That's the term that they have a problem with though,
33:25
Speaker 5: is run loose.
33:27
Speaker 4: Yes, and I agree that you are in charge of
33:31
Speaker 4: your kids there and have to make sure that they
33:34
Speaker 4: are behaving and not putting themselves in danger, and that
33:38
Speaker 4: you're not just crushing beers at the.
33:40
Speaker 3: Table, not watching them. Got it.
33:43
Speaker 2: But we are a huge part of Jimmy climbing that
33:46
Speaker 2: post five.
33:49
Speaker 4: We are a huge part of their demographic and sales.
33:53
Speaker 4: So I wonder how viable this would be. You know,
33:57
Speaker 4: they mentioned a story of someone low here who has
34:01
Speaker 4: It's Notch Brewing that has locations in Salem and Brighton Math.
34:05
Speaker 4: They instituted a policy that prohibited children after six PM
34:09
Speaker 4: back in November. They were concerned that this was going
34:12
Speaker 4: to and I'm not against that fair that's totally fine
34:15
Speaker 4: if you want to flip it over to the adults
34:17
Speaker 4: and let the adults have fun without our kids running
34:20
Speaker 4: around and ruining that time after six totally get it.
34:23
Speaker 4: But earlier in the afternoon it's a perfect way for
34:26
Speaker 4: us with young kids to get out there still feel
34:28
Speaker 4: like we can be social and not have to spend
34:31
Speaker 4: our time at Storyland or some of these other places.
34:34
Speaker 2: That just get just to knocking on Storyland.
34:38
Speaker 3: I just that's the one that came to mind. I'm
34:40
Speaker 3: not saying a crowd favor here.
34:41
Speaker 2: On the financial exchange. I say it's bad, but I'll
34:45
Speaker 2: take the other side of this way. I mean, look,
34:47
Speaker 2: I had my kids at the Beautiful Treehouse Brewing Company
34:55
Speaker 2: just a couple of weekends ago, and it was wonderful,
35:00
Speaker 2: like it was a good time. That said, if you're
35:03
Speaker 2: the owner of a business and you have to deal
35:05
Speaker 2: with the general public, which let's be honest, people kind
35:08
Speaker 2: of suck, and you're dealing with parents that don't take
35:12
Speaker 2: responsibility for their kids, and you've got kids climbing trees
35:15
Speaker 2: and sure and doing all this stupid stuff. Either you're
35:18
Speaker 2: gonna be in a position of having every single person
35:20
Speaker 2: that enters your property sign a waiver saying, hey, if
35:23
Speaker 2: your kid goes and kills himself on that tree, I'm
35:25
Speaker 2: not liable, or you're just gonna get fed up and
35:28
Speaker 2: say I'm done with this. And I'm with you that
35:32
Speaker 2: I still want to be able to attend breweries with
35:33
Speaker 2: my kids because I will take the responsibility of making
35:37
Speaker 2: sure they're not doing stupid things. But I definitely get
35:41
Speaker 2: the perspective of a business owner who's like, yeah, I've
35:43
Speaker 2: seen some parents just getting drunk and not doing what
35:47
Speaker 2: parents should be doing, and I don't know what to
35:51
Speaker 2: do about this, so full on bandge. I would imagine
35:53
Speaker 2: there's a lot of breweries in cities who are just
35:56
Speaker 2: gonna say, yeah, not worth it, no interest in You know,
35:59
Speaker 2: if I have a brewery in Boston or Manhattan, there's
36:05
Speaker 2: just not enough young families that that's such a demographic
36:07
Speaker 2: that it's going to be a hit. I can see
36:09
Speaker 2: people just saying forget this.
36:10
Speaker 5: Yeah, you can't just be like running around you have
36:12
Speaker 5: your kids just run around the entire like brewery, around
36:15
Speaker 5: different picnic tables or whatever like that that I'm against,
36:18
Speaker 5: like because how many times have you just kids entirely?
36:21
Speaker 3: Like come on, I.
36:23
Speaker 2: Mean, how many times have I seen personally like a
36:25
Speaker 2: waitress with a giant thing full of food and dishes
36:30
Speaker 2: nearly trip over a kid because your parents are just
36:32
Speaker 2: paying no attention whatsoever. Oh yeah, that can happen in
36:34
Speaker 2: restaurants too.
36:35
Speaker 5: That happens at my father in law's restaurant. It's an
36:38
Speaker 5: outdoor patio and some parents will just let the kids
36:41
Speaker 5: run around there like it's a restaurant, Like what are
36:44
Speaker 5: you doing? So I tell my kids, hey, like if
36:46
Speaker 5: we do go to a brewery, hey, we're at a restaurant,
36:50
Speaker 5: sit down.
36:50
Speaker 4: It's tough with the breweries when they have the outdoor
36:53
Speaker 4: space link to a golf course or like Trillion has
36:57
Speaker 4: a lot of outdoor space there too.
37:00
Speaker 2: It's maybe we just banned Paul's kids. This seems to be.
37:03
Speaker 3: See you're talking on your high horse. You're like, yeah,
37:06
Speaker 3: I brought my kids to a brewer, so they were terrible.
37:08
Speaker 3: But they're so much older.
37:09
Speaker 2: They're way older. Yeah, it's way, way easier. They actually
37:12
Speaker 2: listened at this stage. It's wild.
37:14
Speaker 5: I would recommend saying to think about, uh, bringing a
37:17
Speaker 5: board game to said brewery.
37:19
Speaker 2: Now I got a better solution.
37:21
Speaker 5: Because because you can just sit there and do whatever
37:24
Speaker 5: it is, candy Land or whatever.
37:25
Speaker 2: Bolt crap cage problem solved. Now the kids are allowed
37:32
Speaker 2: at the brewer. We got them in the cage. We're fine.
37:33
Speaker 2: It's totally acceptable. Now. Taking a look at markets here,
37:39
Speaker 2: we have a very mixed market at the moment, with
37:41
Speaker 2: the Dow Jones Industrial lavage at the at this point
37:44
Speaker 2: in time, off about half a percent. The S and
37:47
Speaker 2: P five hundred I have never seen so flat. It
37:49
Speaker 2: is off one half of a point one tenth, less
37:54
Speaker 2: than one tenth of a percent. The NASDAK continuing to
37:57
Speaker 2: lead the way up nearly seven tenths of a percent
38:00
Speaker 2: now with Nvidia dragging the index as a whole up,
38:04
Speaker 2: which is up four point three percent. Now that's in
38:06
Speaker 2: Nvidia stock. That's all the time we have for today.
38:08
Speaker 2: We will be right back at it tomorrow with a
38:11
Speaker 2: bunch more earnings and economic data. Tune in, have a
38:14
Speaker 2: great rest of your day, folks,