Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Last Time This Happened, Stock Market Rallied +641% + Stock Market News 24 September 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Last Time This Happened, Stock Market Rallied +641% + Stock Market News 24 September 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-morning live.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: What a glorious day it is to be alive.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Markets are looking pretty decent.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: There is plenty of good news out there, and I'm going to tell you all about it so you can make the most of it, because our intention here is always to help you help make you more money by making you better informed and actually understand what the heck's going on out there.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: That's really the goal here, so I'm going to share my screen with you and go here.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I'm going to hit you straight over the head with what the headline's all about, so you know what the heck's going on.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: This year, in 2024, we have had 40, I kid you, not 40 all-time highs, and that's pretty unusual.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: We have had one of the top 16 or something like that starts the year.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: So it since 1929, something like that.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: But when was the last time we had 40 all-time highs after a year of nothingness?
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: 2023?
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Well, 2013 kicked off a monstrous rally that would last nine years.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Nine years of smiles, an entire generation that thought the stock market only ever goes up.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: And well, there was a little bit of blip in there wasn't there COVID, but we sort of managed to steamroll over that by printing $4 billion In the previous ones.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: That would have been 1985.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: That kicked off three consecutive years one misery in 1988, and then another.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: What is that?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: 11 years of glory from 1989 onwards, and that's pretty much it.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: So, typically when you get a year with 40 all-time highs, it is followed by more glorious years to follow.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: We've never actually had a year with 40 all-time highs or more, where actually I correct myself 1961.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: But that was a Cuban missile crisis or something like that.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: That wasn't really the market's fault, was it?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: That was just sort of the world trying to kill itself.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: And 1929.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, 1929.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So you could say thank you for cheering us up, scott.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: You could say that this is the beginning of the end.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I should have changed the title of the video.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I should have said it's all over.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: The end is near.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Jump off the nearest bridge or cliff because you have 30 years of misery ahead of you.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: But no, I don't quite see it like that.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I think, if you look at the data that we've got and I'll show you some more of that in a moment here things look pretty bloody glorious from where we're sitting here, almost as glorious as our portfolio, which is up 93%.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: And someone complained yesterday, felix, how come your portfolio is always up 93%?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: How is that possible?
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Because September.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: And what do I do in September?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Basically nothing.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I sit on my hands with a couple of very few trades, which I'll show you in a moment.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we are up 93% so far this year by sitting on our hands most of the time, come and join me literally today.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Yes, today, on this glorious Tuesday at 8 pm Eastern time, at Felix Rensselaer's last challenge, and I shall teach you for two days, about an hour each day, how we do it.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you the rules and you walk away with the rules.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Does that sound fair?
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: I think that sounds fair, drew.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for the like.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, here is some more good news.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: This comes straight from the lovely, fuzzy people at Goldman Sachs who only ever think of kittens.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: There's a kitten running around here.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Actually.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: He's complaining that I'm not playing with her, saying could you hurry up?
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: We've got more important things to do.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: She's, of course, right.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Ctas, which are algo funds computers are going to buy $9 billion of US stocks this week.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Corporates are not buying anything because they're in a blackout period, which is, 96% of all ASMP members are in a blackout period by the end of this week, which also means if we get through this week in a decent shape, then we should probably become a little bit more optimistic, because if we can survive without buybacks, then I think we're doing quite all right.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Pension funds have also flipped and Goldman Sachs says they're going to buy $4 billion of US stocks by the month end.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Why Bonds have gone through the roof?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: That's really why, so the bonds are more valuable.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Therefore, they have to sell some bonds and they have to buy some stocks.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: It's sort of the rebalancing thing that's going on there.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: 100 likes now.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that that's a 20% like to view ratio.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: That's rather generous of you, isn't it?
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, then let me give you some more things to cheer you up.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: We are here, as they say in France, they can't pronounce the H Ash.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I can't help but make French of the fun, fun of the French.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Even so, if history is anything to guide us, we should end the year 8% higher.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Obviously, it doesn't have to turn out that way, but historically that's how it works.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Now it could be that, depending on how the poll results come in and what your favorite presidential candidate is saying this week that we might extend the the September slump a little bit into October and that we would then catch up.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Entirely possibly so, but generally speaking, november, december, glorious, glorious months.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: David and Bart appreciate the likes.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: What's rebalancing, says Dawn.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me explain.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: That's a good, good question.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So here, when we have pension funds, how's a pension fund run?
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: A pension fund, say, this is a pension fund and it has to have 50% of its money in one thing and 50% in the other.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: The one thing is bonds and the other thing is stocks.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: What if your bonds go up because bonds go up, fed cuts and so on?
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: So now this goes up, bonds go up.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: So now you've got, say, 53% in bonds and you've got 47% in stocks.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: So what do you have to do?
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: You sell bonds and you buy more stocks to rebalance, and you do that every quarter.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: That's the madness that pension funds do.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: They have to do it.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: This is just sort of the way they're regulated.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Now, it might not be exactly 50-50, obviously, but that's basically what they have to do.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Hence them buying $4 billion of stocks by the end of the month, according to Goldman and Sachs.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: There is no and in there, but there probably was at one point.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Sachs.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: There is no and in there, but there probably was at one point.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Now, tesla is a beautiful trade, isn't it?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: It's a beautiful trade.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: It's a really beautiful trade.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Why is it a beautiful trade?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Well, my sort of chart theory is basically something like that we took out this high here and that high here just three, four days ago.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: That propelled us higher.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: You could have been in the trade a little earlier.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe you could have gotten in, say here.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: But either way, you're laughing, you're smiling.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Right now, pre-market, we're trading at about $254, as I was checking, $254.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: That looks like a five, doesn't look like a five, does it?
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: And what's our resistance?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Now then it's 260.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So that little green bar there at 260 is still the resistance, but it seems that Elon is slicing through it, as he is slicing through the heart of the Italian prime minister, who seems to be rather fond of the chap.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Paypal is another one of our trades We've got open right now, and I said we don't have a lot of them open.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: So what would you do if you were trading PayPal?
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Well, you'd probably get in around about there.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: You might be a little bit more cautious and careful I usually am that chap you get in just a little bit later and we would connect something like this Hang on, something like that.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: It's never exactly precise, something like that.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: And then we would say by here, which is what our clever little indicator did, that's sort of what is that?
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: 65 something?
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: And oh boy, are we rallying up.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: And we're rallying up on really nice, strong volume down here.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So the party is on and on and on, which we're very happy about.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: So we're making some nice dosh over there with PayPal.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: And here's another one I just popped on my screen up this morning and this is a random stock Pardon, my French.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: This is called RHP.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: This is not a trade recommendation by any chance.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I'm not in this either, but it's popped very, very nicely and two days ago seems to still be doing it.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Volume's nice and strong.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: And I like patterns like this, and I'll show you why.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: When you have stocks that sort of go sideways for quite an extensive period of time, something like that, right and then down here.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Okay, that isn't quite so perfect, but you get the idea.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So we had that point here, this point there, that point here, this point here, and when you do that for a considerable period of time.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: You know what happens People get bored and tired of the bloody thing and they sell it.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: They want to sell it, they just sell it and they give up.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So the longer the sideways thing goes on for the better it is when you actually get the breakout.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: So it's one I'll be keeping an eye on.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: It's called RHP R-A-S it's not the new abbreviation and guinea pigs.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: There you got a good point.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: You want to look at resistance.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So you want to look at, like, how close are we to the next resistance For this stock?
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: The next resistance will be somewhere up here at sort of 120.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: So 10% up.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I think that's reasonable.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: If it's like 3% above, then yeah, I wouldn't bother, because what's the whole point?
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Take a look at Oxy, say some of you.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, we'll do that, poet also gladly.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: We talked about that yesterday.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: But the chart I love the best, of course, is our own stock chart, which is us making 93% gains so far this year, which is always a lovely feeling and it feels very, very good.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Learn how we do that Seriously.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Link is down below phoenixfriendsorg slash challenge.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself one of the last tickets that's there and join me in 11 hours, something like that, a couple of big stories that I think you need to be aware of, and then we'll go through your favorite tickets and favorite stocks.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Just put them in the chat.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Here is Visa Card.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Visa Card is well pissed off.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Somebody at the Department of Justice and they are apparently throwing an antitrust case at Visaard because they have a monopoly in debit cards.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they illegally monopolized the US debit card market.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: So VisaCard this morning looking a little bit sad and saggy here at down a little bit.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, down a gap, down In fact, 282, ending that beautiful rally.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Now, if you had some rules and you were in Visa card, probably break your rules, wouldn't it?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Probably kick you out of the trade, which might not be a bad idea at this point.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, that's not a good story.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I'm sure MasterCard's being dragged into the mud as well.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Down a little bit too.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: What about AXP?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Less so, yeah, less so.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely one to watch for.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Today, there is more in the good news.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Well, starbucks, starbucks Jefferies have given them a sell.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Starbucks is what do they do?
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Well, let me get rid of all the pretty lines.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: They appointed a new CEO here, which meant that everybody hated the old CEO and had been lying to him for years.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: How does that feel, do you think, if your stock price goes from 76 to 96 on the news that you've retired or got fired, but Jeffries is basically saying it's overdone and they might have a point?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: They might have a point because turn this ship around is a little bit challenging.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So the question now is how low can we go?
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Right, it's not moving a lot this morning, but it might be the kicker to end the party here on Starbucks.