Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / You Won’t BELIEVE What Happened to Me…

Transcript

You Won’t BELIEVE What Happened to Me… · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  Where the heck have I been?
• 0:04
  Uh,
• 0:05
  it's just sad.
• 0:05
  I mean,
• 0:06
  you believe that the work ethic in this country these days,
• 0:08
  people just taking weeks off in the middle of an election.
• 0:10
  What's going on?
• 0:11
  I'll tell you that story.
• 0:12
  Uh,
• 0:13
  we have a new segment coming up,
• 0:14
  Candidate Countdown.
• 0:15
  We're gonna do this every single day.
• 0:16
  We're gonna give you another candidate,
• 0:17
  another race that I like,
• 0:19
  uh,
• 0:19
  different varying levels of,
• 0:21
  of profit,
• 0:22
  uh,
• 0:22
  possibilities,
• 0:23
  and,
• 0:23
  uh,
• 0:24
  try to give you a sense as to where those races will end up.
• 0:26
  And we also have a primary tonight.
• 0:28
  Uh,
• 0:29
  you may not have known.
• 0:29
  New Hampshire.
• 0:30
  The primary is tonight.
• 0:32
  We'll go through that and the midterm convention.
• 0:34
  This is the first,
• 0:35
  I think,
• 0:35
  Republican
• 0:36
  midterm convention ever.
• 0:38
  There's been,
• 0:38
  there were a couple of Democrats that won years and years and years ago,
• 0:40
  but it's right here in Dallas this week.
• 0:42
  So lots of stuff.
• 0:43
  The city's very much buzzing with that.
• 0:45
  We'll get to all of it today on Predictable
• 0:46
  with Stu.
• 1:03
  Welcome
• 1:04
  to Predictable with Stu.
• 1:05
  You can get us on predictableshow.com.
• 1:07
  You can also get us at youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 1:11
  Uh,
• 1:11
  lots of great stuff going on.
• 1:13
  Um,
• 1:13
  we've got all the stuff we were talking
• 1:15
  about with the elections and everything else.
• 1:16
  In fact,
• 1:17
  56 days now until the election,
• 1:19
  56 days
• 1:20
  until the,
• 1:21
  uh,
• 1:21
  the,
• 1:21
  uh,
• 1:22
  the election,
• 1:23
  uh,
• 1:23
  midterms
• 1:24
  that are coming up really right around the corner now.
• 1:25
  We're in the absolute
• 1:27
  56 days.
• 1:28
  We're talking 8 weeks.
• 1:29
  That's it.
• 1:30
  8 weeks until this,
• 1:31
  this thing actually happens,
• 1:32
  uh,
• 1:33
  and,
• 1:33
  uh,
• 1:33
  we still have,
• 1:34
  do have a couple more primaries.
• 1:35
  It's weird if your state
• 1:37
  schedules them this late,
• 1:38
  isn't it?
• 1:38
  I,
• 1:38
  I don't know.
• 1:39
  I,
• 1:39
  I guess it doesn't really matter.
• 1:41
  There's no real reason to have it earlier than
• 1:42
  that unless you want to have a longer campaign.
• 1:44
  Maybe this is the right way to do it.
• 1:45
  Uh,
• 1:45
  in New Hampshire,
• 1:46
  September 8th,
• 1:47
  uh,
• 1:47
  which is tonight,
• 1:48
  September 9th,
• 1:49
  oddly,
• 1:50
  Rhode Island is tomorrow.
• 1:52
  Uh,
• 1:52
  they,
• 1:53
  uh,
• 1:53
  moved theirs because of Labor Day.
• 1:55
  They wanted to have an extra day to kind of
• 1:57
  get people back in the swing of things.
• 1:58
  So they're doing theirs tomorrow on a Wednesday,
• 2:00
  a rare Wednesday primary,
• 2:02
  uh,
• 2:02
  just like a rare Wednesday NFL,
• 2:04
  uh,
• 2:04
  start,
• 2:04
  uh,
• 2:05
  to this particular year.
• 2:06
  It's a strange year with the calendar.
• 2:07
  September 15th,
• 2:08
  the last one is in Delaware.
• 2:11
  You know,
• 2:11
  we'll go through what's going on in that election here in a little bit.
• 2:14
  It's not the most interesting one,
• 2:16
  frankly,
• 2:17
  on the schedule,
• 2:18
  uh,
• 2:18
  but we've,
• 2:18
  uh,
• 2:19
  we've had some positions there for a long time that are,
• 2:21
  uh,
• 2:21
  going to pay off,
• 2:22
  I think,
• 2:22
  very,
• 2:22
  very soon,
• 2:23
  hopefully.
• 2:24
  Uh,
• 2:24
  so we'll go through that.
• 2:24
  And then,
• 2:25
  you know,
• 2:25
  I said,
• 2:26
  what was it,
• 2:26
  uh,
• 2:27
  56 days
• 2:28
  until,
• 2:29
  uh,
• 2:29
  the midterm elections.
• 2:30
  A little misleading though,
• 2:31
  because
• 2:31
  what if I were to tell you it's 10 days away.
• 2:34
  What if I were to tell you the election is 10 days away,
• 2:37
  because 10 days are where we are from the early voting for this election.
• 2:42
  Again,
• 2:42
  do we really need 46 days of early voting?
• 2:46
  I,
• 2:47
  I'm not,
• 2:47
  I'm somewhat sympathetic to the absentee voting system considering,
• 2:52
  you know,
• 2:52
  I mean,
• 2:52
  I,
• 2:52
  I guess this is what happens,
• 2:53
  right?
• 2:54
  When you are,
• 2:55
  when it affects you,
• 2:56
  you,
• 2:57
  you often get a little more sympathetic.
• 2:58
  I don't know,
• 2:59
  maybe that's just human nature,
• 3:00
  but like we for my entire life I've been,
• 3:03
  you know,
• 3:03
  covering elections on election day,
• 3:05
  and most of the time
• 3:06
  for a good chunk of my life at least,
• 3:08
  it was out of state
• 3:10
  where we would have to do it.
• 3:11
  So I would be out of state all day,
• 3:12
  and I'd go from Pennsylvania or,
• 3:14
  you know,
• 3:15
  Connecticut into New York.
• 3:16
  Uh,
• 3:17
  and I'd be in New York for the whole day,
• 3:18
  and by the time I get back,
• 3:20
  all the polls would be closed.
• 3:21
  So I used absentee voting.
• 3:23
  I don't think there's a problem with absentee voting.
• 3:25
  I don't think most people have a problem with absentee voting.
• 3:27
  It's the,
• 3:27
  uh,
• 3:28
  hey,
• 3:28
  we're gonna mail,
• 3:29
  you know,
• 3:29
  12 ballots to every household type of thing
• 3:32
  that I think people run into when we're talking about the problems,
• 3:35
  but
• 3:35
  Early voting starts September 18th in three states,
• 3:38
  Minnesota,
• 3:38
  South Dakota,
• 3:39
  and Virginia.
• 3:41
  September 19th,
• 3:42
  it starts in Vermont,
• 3:42
  September 24th in Illinois,
• 3:44
  and October 4th in Maine.
• 3:46
  Those are the 1st,
• 3:46
  123456 states
• 3:49
  to begin early voting.
• 3:50
  So we are in the middle of this.
• 3:52
  This is,
• 3:53
  uh,
• 3:53
  this is crunch time.
• 3:54
  This is the
• 3:55
  no more need for,
• 3:57
  um,
• 3:57
  worry,
• 3:58
  no more need for concern.
• 4:00
  We're,
• 4:00
  we're gonna have an election.
• 4:02
  I know a lot of people in the media are like,
• 4:03
  I don't know,
• 4:03
  will there even be an election?
• 4:04
  There's going to be an election.
• 4:06
  It's starting very,
• 4:07
  very soon,
• 4:07
  and we want to get prepared for it.
• 4:09
  We've used this primary season
• 4:11
  to get you prepared for two things.
• 4:13
  One,
• 4:13
  what we think the outcome of the elections will look like in those primary,
• 4:17
  um,
• 4:17
  races,
• 4:18
  and two,
• 4:19
  to kind of get you started on prediction markets in general,
• 4:22
  if you've never used them before.
• 4:23
  Uh,
• 4:24
  if you are just a beginner when it comes to prediction markets,
• 4:26
  that's totally cool.
• 4:27
  You're still way out in front
• 4:29
  of tons and tons of your friends who,
• 4:31
  who maybe you've heard of them but have never jumped in before.
• 4:33
  Um,
• 4:34
  and we try to use these primary elections as sort of a dry run
• 4:38
  for what's coming up in the midterms.
• 4:40
  We are getting to that place now.
• 4:43
  And this is why we're starting this candidate of the day of the day segment,
• 4:46
  um,
• 4:46
  candidate countdown,
• 4:47
  uh,
• 4:48
  because.
• 4:49
  We're getting to that point now where
• 4:51
  there's a bunch of races out there
• 4:53
  where the outcome is
• 4:55
  either,
• 4:57
  you know,
• 4:57
  really certain
• 4:59
  in my mind
• 5:00
  or close to certain,
• 5:01
  and there are still a lot of profit to be taken.
• 5:04
  We like those races.
• 5:05
  We also like races where it seems to me that
• 5:07
  there's going to be a decent amount of value,
• 5:09
  something where maybe the person has an 85 or 90% chance of winning.
• 5:13
  But they're only showing up at 45 or 50 or whatever the indication
• 5:17
  is.
• 5:17
  We're gonna go through all of that
• 5:18
  kind of as we go forward.
• 5:20
  I was off,
• 5:21
  by the way,
• 5:21
  for a few days,
• 5:22
  um,
• 5:23
  and,
• 5:23
  uh,
• 5:24
  you know,
• 5:24
  I'm just kind of bouncing back to my first show back in the studio today,
• 5:28
  and it all kind of revolves
• 5:30
  around I was away,
• 5:31
  uh,
• 5:32
  and,
• 5:32
  uh,
• 5:32
  I,
• 5:33
  you know,
• 5:33
  I did,
• 5:33
  I made a decision,
• 5:35
  uh,
• 5:35
  which I guess some people do.
• 5:37
  Uh,
• 5:38
  which is to exercise,
• 5:39
  uh,
• 5:39
  to try to get a little exercise,
• 5:41
  move the body a little bit,
• 5:42
  you know.
• 5:42
  You gotta do that,
• 5:43
  especially as you get older,
• 5:44
  and they tell you,
• 5:44
  you gotta exercise more.
• 5:45
  You gotta get out there,
• 5:46
  you gotta move your you gotta move your bones.
• 5:48
  Get things going.
• 5:49
  So I went on a little bike ride,
• 5:51
  uh,
• 5:51
  and nothing big,
• 5:52
  a leisurely bike ride,
• 5:53
  but just to get the,
• 5:54
  get the blood flowing a little bit.
• 5:55
  Uh,
• 5:56
  and,
• 5:56
  you know,
• 5:56
  I had a nice,
• 5:57
  uh,
• 5:57
  nice bike ride.
• 5:58
  On the way back,
• 5:59
  I was coming down a bike path,
• 6:01
  and there was a jeep that was coming up on the,
• 6:04
  uh,
• 6:04
  on the outside road that was taking a left in front of me.
• 6:07
  Uh,
• 6:07
  and this jeep,
• 6:08
  um,
• 6:09
  pulled up and it was gonna take a left,
• 6:11
  and it,
• 6:12
  it looked like it was gonna go,
• 6:13
  and then it came to a full stop.
• 6:14
  And
• 6:15
  to me,
• 6:16
  that was my signal that
• 6:17
  they were going to let me go.
• 6:20
  That was the signal to me.
• 6:21
  Apparently not the signal to the driver of the jeep.
• 6:23
  The driver of the jeep said,
• 6:25
  this is a great opportunity to kind of
• 6:27
  to screw with this guy who's on the bike,
• 6:29
  and just come to a full stop like you're gonna stop,
• 6:31
  and then just gun it across.
• 6:33
  Um,
• 6:34
  and it was,
• 6:34
  uh,
• 6:35
  so I,
• 6:35
  uh,
• 6:36
  I don't know if he was waiting for another car to come,
• 6:38
  and he thought,
• 6:38
  oh,
• 6:39
  at first he didn't think he was gonna make it,
• 6:40
  so he came to a full stop,
• 6:42
  and then he's like,
• 6:42
  oh wait a minute,
• 6:43
  I can still make this,
• 6:43
  and then he decided to go.
• 6:45
  Whatever happened,
• 6:46
  I did not handle it well.
• 6:47
  Um,
• 6:48
  and,
• 6:48
  uh,
• 6:49
  I had a situation,
• 6:50
  a minor,
• 6:50
  a minor issue with it,
• 6:52
  where I slammed on the brakes basically as hard as I could,
• 6:54
  uh,
• 6:55
  and,
• 6:55
  uh,
• 6:55
  went flying over the handlebars and,
• 6:57
  uh,
• 6:57
  in,
• 6:58
  in something that
• 6:59
  I would imagine looked,
• 7:00
  uh,
• 7:01
  slightly less graceful
• 7:02
  than Joe Biden falling over on his bike.
• 7:05
  That it was in that range.
• 7:07
  Um,
• 7:07
  and
• 7:09
  ridiculously enough,
• 7:10
  he's like 150.
• 7:11
  years old,
• 7:12
  he was fine after that.
• 7:13
  I had to go to the hospital,
• 7:15
  uh,
• 7:15
  because I was pretty much convinced I had broken every bone
• 7:18
  from,
• 7:19
  uh,
• 7:19
  in my arms,
• 7:20
  uh,
• 7:20
  all the way down to my fingers.
• 7:22
  Um,
• 7:22
  luckily that was not true,
• 7:24
  but I did break my elbow,
• 7:26
  uh,
• 7:26
  which sucks.
• 7:26
  Uh,
• 7:27
  so I had a fractured elbow.
• 7:28
  This is why I've got,
• 7:29
  I've got my arm is not very moving very much.
• 7:32
  Um,
• 7:32
  I'm already feeling a decent amount better.
• 7:34
  It's been almost 2 weeks now.
• 7:36
  And,
• 7:36
  uh,
• 7:36
  you know,
• 7:37
  luckily I had the Labor Day weekend,
• 7:38
  a little bit extra time to,
• 7:40
  to
• 7:40
  To pad the recovery.
• 7:42
  So,
• 7:42
  I'm still in a decent amount of pain.
• 7:44
  I basically sprained my wrists and elbows and everything,
• 7:48
  and then broke one elbow.
• 7:49
  That was the only break I had.
• 7:51
  So that's gonna be a little bit,
• 7:52
  uh,
• 7:52
  a little bit of a slower recovery.
• 7:54
  My arm here,
• 7:55
  my left arm moving around a little bit better.
• 7:57
  I'm starting to be able to,
• 7:58
  I,
• 7:58
  I,
• 7:59
  I was even able to do some trading on,
• 8:01
  uh,
• 8:01
  on the prediction markets,
• 8:02
  uh,
• 8:02
  this weekend.
• 8:03
  Uh,
• 8:03
  you know,
• 8:04
  get a little sore a little bit quickly.
• 8:05
  I'll do the best that I can though to uh
• 8:07
  get you through maybe some of the primary stuff tonight.
• 8:09
  We'll be posting on the,
• 8:10
  um,
• 8:11
  on the chat at predictableshow.com,
• 8:14
  uh,
• 8:14
  some of the,
• 8:15
  the trades that we will have going into this,
• 8:17
  um,
• 8:18
  you know,
• 8:19
  we'll get into that here,
• 8:19
  I guess in,
• 8:20
  in a little bit.
• 8:21
  Uh,
• 8:21
  long story short though,
• 8:22
  is,
• 8:23
  uh,
• 8:24
  there's a really like clear lesson from all of this,
• 8:27
  which is
• 8:29
  never
• 8:31
  exercise.
• 8:32
  Um,
• 8:33
  exercise
• 8:34
  is
• 8:34
  evil
• 8:35
  and wrong,
• 8:37
  and if you exercise,
• 8:38
  you're putting yourself at severe
• 8:41
  risk.
• 8:42
  If you decide to go out there and ride a bike or run or lift weights,
• 8:47
  all of that can lead to you being in the hospital.
• 8:50
  And uh I just don't encourage it.
• 8:53
  In fact,
• 8:53
  I say,
• 8:54
  never exercise.
• 8:55
  Sloth yourself
• 8:57
  uh until you,
• 8:58
  until you die.
• 8:59
  Uh,
• 8:59
  just kind of turn yourself into a giant sloth
• 9:02
  and just feed yourself Taco Bell and 7-Eleven pizza,
• 9:05
  and then,
• 9:06
  uh.
• 9:07
  At the end of the day,
• 9:08
  um,
• 9:09
  if you get,
• 9:09
  if you make it to the end of the day,
• 9:10
  you'll be much,
• 9:11
  much healthier,
• 9:12
  uh,
• 9:12
  for it.
• 9:12
  Because I will say,
• 9:14
  every freaking time I try to do anything these days,
• 9:16
  this is what happens when you get old.
• 9:17
  Every time I try to do anything,
• 9:18
  I just injure myself and then I can't do anything for weeks after that.
• 9:22
  So what's the point?
• 9:23
  What's the point here?
• 9:25
  There's no prediction market that tells you whether exercise is healthy or not,
• 9:28
  but I'm gonna tell you,
• 9:29
  I think it's a lie from big exercise.
• 9:30
  You know how big of an industry exercise is?
• 9:33
  How much,
• 9:33
  how,
• 9:34
  how much
• 9:35
  between exercise
• 9:36
  and,
• 9:36
  uh,
• 9:37
  and,
• 9:37
  and weightlifting machines,
• 9:39
  and,
• 9:39
  uh,
• 9:40
  you know,
• 9:41
  I don't know,
• 9:41
  whatever else they're throwing at you,
• 9:43
  bands and,
• 9:44
  and,
• 9:44
  uh,
• 9:45
  and they've got the thing that you stick on the wall now and
• 9:48
  all that stuff,
• 9:49
  whatever that stuff is,
• 9:51
  don't go near it.
• 9:52
  It's bad for you.
• 9:53
  It's going to hurt you.
• 9:55
  And I am
• 9:56
  a central example
• 9:58
  as to why.
• 9:58
  Now,
• 9:59
  uh,
• 9:59
  do I feel good?
• 10:00
  No.
• 10:00
  Uh,
• 10:01
  first of all,
• 10:01
  I'm in pain from the,
• 10:02
  uh,
• 10:02
  from the injury,
• 10:04
  uh,
• 10:04
  and,
• 10:05
  you know,
• 10:06
  I'm at that point now where I can't like open doors because I can't like twist my,
• 10:10
  uh,
• 10:10
  either hand well,
• 10:11
  so like I get like two hands on and I try to like twist my whole body.
• 10:14
  It's pretty funny to watch,
• 10:16
  um,
• 10:17
  but
• 10:18
  I will,
• 10:19
  I will say this,
• 10:20
  uh,
• 10:21
  when this heals,
• 10:22
  never gonna happen again,
• 10:23
  because I'm never exercising again in my life.
• 10:26
  So that's the story.
• 10:27
  OK,
• 10:27
  um,
• 10:28
  we have a lot coming up this week.
• 10:29
  I wanna tell you about a couple of things.
• 10:31
  Uh,
• 10:32
  that,
• 10:33
  uh,
• 10:33
  before we get into the candidate countdown segment which is coming up,
• 10:36
  um,
• 10:37
  we,
• 10:37
  uh,
• 10:39
  you know,
• 10:39
  one of the good things about me,
• 10:41
  you know,
• 10:41
  injuring myself
• 10:42
  was I was able to finish up,
• 10:43
  uh,
• 10:44
  the,
• 10:44
  um,
• 10:45
  election model that I've been building over the previous couple of weeks
• 10:48
  and kept getting derailed on because of other things going on.
• 10:51
  Uh,
• 10:51
  had a bunch of time to kind of sit in front
• 10:53
  of the computer and slowly with one hand type very slowly,
• 10:56
  uh,
• 10:56
  uh,
• 10:56
  and get our election model,
• 10:58
  uh,
• 10:58
  ready.
• 10:59
  So that's gonna be ready to go this
• 11:00
  week,
• 11:00
  I think.
• 11:01
  Um,
• 11:02
  you know,
• 11:02
  we still,
• 11:03
  right now it's just a bunch of information in a spreadsheet.
• 11:05
  It's not very,
• 11:05
  uh,
• 11:05
  sexy looking.
• 11:06
  We're gonna try to,
• 11:07
  uh,
• 11:07
  make it look pretty for you
• 11:08
  and we'll offer that to you at predictableshow.com.
• 11:11
  Now there are other election models out there we've tried to look at
• 11:14
  if you were with us on the,
• 11:15
  uh,
• 11:15
  on the Glenn Beck program,
• 11:16
  uh,
• 11:16
  last 2024,
• 11:18
  uh,
• 11:18
  had something we called the Pulsecast,
• 11:20
  which was basically an you try to
• 11:22
  capture everything,
• 11:23
  right,
• 11:24
  to be able to kind of take a,
• 11:25
  uh,
• 11:26
  um,
• 11:26
  uh,
• 11:27
  uh.
• 11:28
  A moment in time
• 11:29
  of
• 11:29
  what all the experts are saying,
• 11:31
  what all the,
• 11:32
  uh,
• 11:33
  prediction,
• 11:34
  prediction
• 11:34
  uh
• 11:35
  markets were saying,
• 11:36
  what the polling averages were saying,
• 11:37
  what,
• 11:38
  uh,
• 11:39
  The,
• 11:39
  um,
• 11:40
  you know,
• 11:40
  full blown election models,
• 11:41
  other people's election models were saying and take all that
• 11:43
  information and kind of give it to you in one
• 11:45
  central,
• 11:46
  uh,
• 11:47
  package,
• 11:48
  and that was the idea with that.
• 11:50
  This one,
• 11:50
  I,
• 11:51
  I think we've improved it.
• 11:52
  I think we've been able to improve it.
• 11:53
  We have more sources now,
• 11:54
  uh,
• 11:55
  coming in more varied
• 11:57
  places and it's like,
• 11:57
  you know,
• 11:58
  some of the stuff you might be familiar with,
• 11:59
  you,
• 12:00
  you might see
• 12:01
  from time to time,
• 12:02
  some of the stuff is really nerdy and stuff you probably either don't look at or,
• 12:06
  uh,
• 12:07
  never,
• 12:07
  uh.
• 12:08
  Never heard of,
• 12:09
  uh,
• 12:09
  at least most people haven't heard of it.
• 12:11
  We try to put all that stuff together into one package so you can see
• 12:14
  what,
• 12:15
  not nec not necessarily what I think,
• 12:17
  but what,
• 12:17
  what,
• 12:18
  what is the outlook from experts and polling averages
• 12:21
  and everything else,
• 12:22
  um,
• 12:23
  and combine that into one number who's gonna win the House,
• 12:25
  who's gonna win the Senate.
• 12:26
  And then,
• 12:27
  and uh we're gonna give that to you,
• 12:28
  by the way,
• 12:29
  free at predictableshow.com.
• 12:31
  Every day we can update it,
• 12:32
  you know,
• 12:32
  it's probably every day or two we'll,
• 12:34
  we'll get an update to it to kind of keep you,
• 12:36
  give you a sense as to where we stand,
• 12:38
  and we'll try to do it even more as we get,
• 12:39
  uh,
• 12:40
  closer and closer to the elections.
• 12:41
  So we have that one of the things we changed though,
• 12:44
  other than just adding a bunch of inputs into this
• 12:47
  was
• 12:48
  to remove,
• 12:49
  uh,
• 12:50
  one big input.
• 12:51
  Which is,
• 12:52
  I think,
• 12:52
  an interesting thing coming from a show
• 12:55
  about prediction markets.
• 12:56
  What we did was,
• 12:57
  one of the things I,
• 12:58
  I altered on the model was to remove prediction markets from it.
• 13:02
  And the reason that I did that,
• 13:04
  uh,
• 13:05
  was because I wanted to
• 13:08
  Be able to easily compare
• 13:11
  where the where the markets were and where the experts are.
• 13:15
  Where can we find gaps between those two?
• 13:18
  You know,
• 13:18
  is there something where maybe a market isn't efficiently priced,
• 13:21
  or maybe the market's smarter than the,
• 13:24
  uh,
• 13:24
  than the,
• 13:25
  the experts are.
• 13:26
  That's usually the way it goes,
• 13:27
  but we look for those opportunities pretty regularly
• 13:30
  on the show.
• 13:31
  If you are a premium subscriber at uh predictableshow.com,
• 13:34
  you will not only get the House and Senate models,
• 13:38
  uh,
• 13:38
  which are available.
• 13:39
  To everybody,
• 13:40
  uh,
• 13:40
  but if you're a premium subscriber,
• 13:41
  you will also get
• 13:42
  every single Senate race,
• 13:44
  uh,
• 13:44
  every breakdown of every single Senate race that's going on right now.
• 13:47
  I'm gonna try to add the governors at some point.
• 13:49
  Um,
• 13:49
  they're not ready yet,
• 13:50
  but that might be coming as well.
• 13:52
  And then importantly,
• 13:53
  if you happen to be someone who trades in prediction markets,
• 13:55
  we're gonna give you the election model,
• 13:57
  our output as to what experts are saying,
• 13:59
  and then also.
• 13:59
  give you,
• 14:00
  um,
• 14:01
  the prediction market data next to that,
• 14:03
  so you can see where the biggest gaps are.
• 14:05
  If someone has a 40% chance
• 14:07
  of,
• 14:08
  uh,
• 14:08
  of,
• 14:08
  of winning,
• 14:09
  but our model says it should be 55%,
• 14:11
  well,
• 14:11
  there's a,
• 14:12
  there's an it's,
• 14:12
  it's going to indicate,
• 14:14
  uh,
• 14:14
  to you
• 14:15
  that there's an interesting road to walk down.
• 14:17
  You might find out that the markets are actually the smart ones.
• 14:20
  Right?
• 14:21
  You might find out that that's how you feel,
• 14:23
  um,
• 14:24
  but in reality,
• 14:25
  um,
• 14:26
  you might also feel the opposite way.
• 14:27
  You might feel like,
• 14:28
  wait a minute,
• 14:28
  I think the markets have this wrong and I think the experts might have this right.
• 14:31
  Looking at that dynamic,
• 14:32
  and there's a couple really,
• 14:34
  really big gaps,
• 14:35
  really big
• 14:36
  between this information.
• 14:38
  Uh,
• 14:38
  and where these markets are,
• 14:39
  I wanna lay that out to you for you in a very
• 14:41
  easy to digest way so that you can look at this and say,
• 14:44
  OK,
• 14:44
  wait a minute,
• 14:45
  that gap's too big.
• 14:46
  I'm going to that market right there.
• 14:47
  We'll give you the link right there.
• 14:48
  If you happen to be trading these markets,
• 14:50
  this is gonna be a really valuable,
• 14:51
  easy way
• 14:52
  because this is the stuff that I look for all the time
• 14:54
  and it's gonna be organized in a much easier way than anywhere else that I've seen it,
• 14:58
  um,
• 14:59
  across the entire internet.
• 15:00
  So
• 15:01
  this is gonna be a,
• 15:02
  a great tool for you if you are looking at these races,
• 15:05
  if you just wanna get into the minutia of it and just understand.
• 15:08
  The better
• 15:08
  or if you're trading these markets,
• 15:09
  it's definitely a really good tool.
• 15:11
  It's gonna be available at predictableshow.com
• 15:13
  this week.
• 15:14
  Uh,
• 15:14
  that's coming up
• 15:15
  as well.
• 15:16
  And we also had an idea of how do we bring
• 15:19
  all these picks to,
• 15:21
  uh,
• 15:21
  the bigger show because we can
• 15:24
  if you go to predictableshow.com and you're a premium member,
• 15:26
  you get
• 15:26
  every pick that I have,
• 15:27
  which is over 200 positions,
• 15:29
  uh,
• 15:29
  in,
• 15:30
  uh,
• 15:30
  in
• 15:31
  various prediction markets
• 15:33
  from every single topic,
• 15:34
  you know,
• 15:34
  you can think of.
• 15:35
  Uh,
• 15:35
  there's gonna be a bunch more coming up with the NFL cause I,
• 15:38
  I do like looking at the NFL as well.
• 15:41
  Um,
• 15:42
  so you look at all that.
• 15:43
  Uh,
• 15:44
  and you can look at that,
• 15:44
  but how do I bring that to the show?
• 15:45
  I can't just,
• 15:46
  we can't talk about 200,
• 15:48
  uh,
• 15:48
  candidates every single day.
• 15:49
  What I'm gonna do is highlight a different race every single day,
• 15:51
  a different candidate where I think there's value.
• 15:53
  I'm gonna try to find the,
• 15:54
  the races
• 15:55
  where I think it would be valuable for you to get in
• 15:58
  earlier,
• 15:59
  right,
• 15:59
  that I think some of that profit might be going away.
• 16:02
  Um,
• 16:02
  one of the things about having a couple more of these primaries,
• 16:05
  uh,
• 16:05
  remaining
• 16:06
  is that what a lot of big traders do,
• 16:08
  uh,
• 16:09
  you know,
• 16:09
  I don't know if I'm a big trader,
• 16:10
  but this is one thing that I do
• 16:12
  is I don't put all my money into November yet.
• 16:14
  I'm trying to roll these through these primaries,
• 16:17
  right,
• 16:17
  week by week by week and trying to find opportunities
• 16:19
  to maximize that money that I can eventually put into,
• 16:22
  um,
• 16:22
  into November.
• 16:23
  I have kind of transitioned on that though over the past couple of weeks,
• 16:27
  and the reason for that is I'm looking ahead
• 16:29
  and I'm saying,
• 16:29
  wait a minute.
• 16:30
  Uh,
• 16:31
  if we wait too long
• 16:32
  and we wait for all the money that comes out of these primaries to clear,
• 16:36
  These numbers are gonna change.
• 16:37
  So I think we have a couple of weeks here
• 16:39
  where we can start looking at certain
• 16:40
  opportunities where there's still profit to be made
• 16:44
  in these markets if you're somebody who just cares about trading them.
• 16:47
  If you're not and you're just someone who's just interested in the elections,
• 16:49
  we're gonna give you that coverage
• 16:51
  as well as we try to break down the coverage,
• 16:53
  uh,
• 16:53
  of the break down the elections,
• 16:55
  you know,
• 16:55
  as well as I think anybody can.
• 16:57
  So
• 16:57
  that's all available for you at predictableshow.com.
• 17:00
  I'm gonna give you our first,
• 17:01
  uh,
• 17:01
  candidate,
• 17:02
  uh,
• 17:03
  candidate countdown.
• 17:04
  Uh,
• 17:04
  of the day here in just a second,
• 17:06
  but join us at predictableShow.com.
• 17:08
  Join us on social media at predictable show
• 17:10
  and at youtube.com/atpredictableShow.
• 17:12
  We got some big announcements coming up
• 17:14
  here in the next week or so,
• 17:16
  so stick around.
• 17:17
  There's a lot of really cool stuff happening at Predictable
• 17:19
  if I can stay out of the hospital,
• 17:22
  uh,
• 17:22
  because none of it happens,
• 17:23
  uh,
• 17:24
  when
• 17:25
  I'm in the hospital.
• 17:26
  Uh,
• 17:26
  all,
• 17:27
  it all just,
• 17:27
  I can't do anything.
• 17:28
  I can't even do shows.
• 17:29
  So,
• 17:30
  hopefully,
• 17:30
  I'm out of the hospital until the election.
• 17:32
  I've decided to take a hospital moratorium
• 17:34
  and,
• 17:34
  uh,
• 17:35
  not injure myself.
• 17:36
  And anyway,
• 17:37
  until then,
• 17:38
  at least that's what I'm telling myself.
• 17:40
  So,
• 17:40
  uh,
• 17:41
  hopefully you'll join us for,
• 17:42
  I know it's gonna be an incredible stretch run,
• 17:44
  and by the way,
• 17:45
  I gotta remember not to do that because that did not feel good at all.
• 17:48
  OK,
• 17:48
  uh,
• 17:48
  back in a second.
• 18:06
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 18:08
  We are looking at how prediction markets and elections work together.
• 18:12
  How do we understand them?
• 18:14
  Who's going to win the tough races?
• 18:16
  Who is going
• 18:17
  to,
• 18:17
  uh,
• 18:18
  control
• 18:18
  the House,
• 18:19
  the Senate,
• 18:20
  increasingly,
• 18:21
  seemingly your life.
• 18:22
  I,
• 18:23
  I,
• 18:23
  I don't think,
• 18:24
  by the way,
• 18:24
  just as a,
• 18:25
  it's a little bit of a sidebar here,
• 18:26
  but,
• 18:26
  uh,
• 18:27
  government wasn't supposed to be this,
• 18:29
  uh,
• 18:29
  much of a control of your life.
• 18:31
  Uh,
• 18:31
  this was supposed to be a thing where
• 18:33
  we lived our own lives and we controlled our own lives
• 18:36
  and we didn't have to worry about what they were doing in
• 18:38
  the capital.
• 18:40
  Uh,
• 18:40
  that's kind of how we formed and,
• 18:41
  and really kind of lasted for a long time and then we sort of got on this weird,
• 18:45
  uh,
• 18:46
  tailspin where every single year,
• 18:48
  no matter who's in control,
• 18:49
  we seem to have more and more control from,
• 18:51
  uh,
• 18:51
  Washington DC.
• 18:52
  I don't think that's a good thing,
• 18:53
  frankly,
• 18:53
  that's my opinion.
• 18:55
  However,
• 18:55
  what we're looking at here is who's going to win
• 18:58
  these elections,
• 18:59
  who's going to be able,
• 19:00
  uh,
• 19:00
  to,
• 19:01
  uh,
• 19:02
  be victorious in,
• 19:03
  in a,
• 19:03
  in a very complicated year.
• 19:05
  We set this up at the very beginning when we launched the show.
• 19:08
  All things being equal,
• 19:10
  we should expect
• 19:11
  particularly bad results for Republicans
• 19:14
  in this race.
• 19:15
  And the reason for that is not because of any of the names involved,
• 19:18
  none of the personalities.
• 19:20
  Nothing,
• 19:21
  it's just history,
• 19:21
  right?
• 19:22
  When you have a midterm election,
• 19:24
  you start off with the understanding,
• 19:26
  the,
• 19:27
  the baseline
• 19:28
  that the party in power is going to do poorly.
• 19:30
  This has happened in almost every single
• 19:33
  election,
• 19:34
  uh,
• 19:34
  going back
• 19:35
  100 years.
• 19:36
  There are a few exceptions of this,
• 19:38
  you know,
• 19:38
  you know,
• 19:38
  for example,
• 19:39
  this week we're gonna have,
• 19:40
  uh,
• 19:41
  we're gonna be remembering
• 19:42
  9/11 for 25th anniversary if you go back to that 2000,
• 19:46
  I guess 2002 election.
• 19:49
  Um,
• 19:49
  that was a different story.
• 19:51
  Uh,
• 19:51
  we were in a different mindset and that didn't happen there.
• 19:54
  There's been a few of those cases
• 19:55
  over history,
• 19:56
  but they're really limited.
• 19:57
  I mean,
• 19:57
  it's really hard to find
• 19:59
  situations where the party in power does well in one of these.
• 20:02
  So you take that into account.
• 20:03
  You take into account some unpopular policies that Republicans have pushed for,
• 20:08
  uh,
• 20:08
  here.
• 20:08
  There are,
• 20:09
  you know,
• 20:09
  the,
• 20:10
  the Iran war is one of them that has not been particularly.
• 20:13
  Uh,
• 20:13
  popular.
• 20:14
  Again,
• 20:14
  we're just,
• 20:15
  we're not talking about whether you think that's the
• 20:16
  right thing or the wrong thing to do.
• 20:17
  I'm just talking about how people react to it.
• 20:19
  Tariffs are another one.
• 20:20
  Don't,
• 20:20
  don't test very well with particularly,
• 20:22
  uh,
• 20:22
  certain audiences around the country.
• 20:24
  And some of the fixes of those,
• 20:26
  uh,
• 20:27
  don't
• 20:27
  always test so well either.
• 20:30
  That being said,
• 20:32
  What we're looking for here is looking for a,
• 20:34
  a path for you to be able to profit off of these elections.
• 20:38
  And you might say,
• 20:38
  well,
• 20:38
  I don't know,
• 20:39
  does that feel right?
• 20:40
  Well,
• 20:40
  I don't know,
• 20:40
  politicians have been profiting off of you for a really long time.
• 20:44
  I think it might be time for you to go the other
• 20:46
  way and maybe turn the tables on them a little bit.
• 20:48
  Because
• 20:49
  not only do we deliver when we deliver uh some profits to you,
• 20:53
  maybe you can pay for a nice steak dinner,
• 20:55
  maybe you pay for a nice vacation,
• 20:56
  whatever the case may be.
• 20:59
  In addition to that though,
• 21:00
  you're also helping inform the people of the United States.
• 21:03
  You're helping the country
• 21:05
  when you participate in prediction markets.
• 21:06
  You might say,
• 21:07
  well,
• 21:07
  that doesn't sound right.
• 21:08
  I mean,
• 21:08
  that kind of sounds like a little high-minded,
• 21:09
  and I get it,
• 21:11
  because,
• 21:11
  you know,
• 21:11
  the way it's promoted in the media all the time is this this terrible outcome,
• 21:14
  this negative thing for society,
• 21:16
  blah blah blah blah blah,
• 21:17
  and I like I,
• 21:17
  I know people that I like and respect who feel that way.
• 21:20
  That's OK.
• 21:21
  If you feel that way,
• 21:21
  you feel that way.
• 21:22
  But
• 21:23
  one of the ways to defeat
• 21:26
  The mainstream media machine.
• 21:29
  The campaign's lying to you constantly.
• 21:31
  Uh,
• 21:32
  even people on your own side may be lying to you constantly about the,
• 21:35
  the,
• 21:35
  how good things are for your side.
• 21:37
  One of the ways to defeat that is to put your money where your mouth is.
• 21:40
  It's people don't lie.
• 21:42
  Uh,
• 21:42
  you know,
• 21:43
  I,
• 21:43
  I think it was one of the guys,
• 21:44
  I think it was the head of Calci who's,
• 21:45
  who made this example at one point,
• 21:46
  and it stuck with me,
• 21:47
  which is like,
• 21:48
  if you're at the Thanksgiving table,
• 21:49
  you're arguing with somebody about some crazy theory they have.
• 21:52
  Oh,
• 21:52
  this is gonna happen,
• 21:53
  this is gonna happen,
• 21:53
  this is gonna happen.
• 21:54
  And you say to them,
• 21:55
  how about this?
• 21:55
  Let's put 10 bucks on it.
• 21:57
  Let's put 10 bucks on it.
• 21:58
  Is this gonna happen or not in a month?
• 22:00
  Most of the time,
• 22:01
  those people are gonna back down
• 22:03
  because it's,
• 22:04
  it's a theory,
• 22:05
  it might be fun to talk about,
• 22:06
  but what's reality?
• 22:08
  Are they gonna just push their side when money's on the line?
• 22:11
  Probably not.
• 22:11
  You put your money where your mouth is,
• 22:13
  at the very least,
• 22:14
  you're saying what you believe and everyone participating in a market like this
• 22:17
  tends to distill the information better
• 22:19
  than we have ever seen
• 22:21
  any other,
• 22:21
  uh,
• 22:22
  function of human society produce.
• 22:26
  I mean this goes back to,
• 22:27
  they've they've now tested millions of these markets,
• 22:30
  millions,
• 22:31
  and say,
• 22:32
  hey,
• 22:32
  wait a minute,
• 22:33
  if they say there's a 70% chance of something happening,
• 22:36
  uh,
• 22:36
  is there really a 70% chance?
• 22:39
  Yeah,
• 22:40
  that's basically what all these studies have found,
• 22:42
  that these are almost perfectly calibrated
• 22:45
  over a long period of time.
• 22:46
  That doesn't mean that they don't miss sometimes
• 22:48
  and and and thankfully on this show,
• 22:50
  we want them to miss sometimes because we want
• 22:52
  to be the ones taking advantage of that.
• 22:54
  We want to be able to
• 22:55
  profit off of these
• 22:56
  particular instances.
• 22:57
  Now for some reason my alarms going off in the middle of the show.
• 22:59
  No,
• 22:59
  that I don't understand.
• 23:00
  OK,
• 23:01
  ouch.
• 23:02
  Um,
• 23:03
  so anyway,
• 23:04
  all that being said,
• 23:06
  to tell you about our candidate countdown,
• 23:08
  our candidate countdown is a candidate we will feature every single day
• 23:12
  where I think there's some value.
• 23:13
  This,
• 23:13
  there's
• 23:14
  kind of a couple ways of looking at this.
• 23:17
  I'll say there's maybe 3 categories of these candidates.
• 23:19
  Number 1,
• 23:20
  you have a candidate that is close to
• 23:23
  a sure thing.
• 23:24
  Our First Amendment of the predictable Constitution is a sure thing,
• 23:28
  always.
• 23:29
  Has air quotes,
• 23:29
  and I'm not gonna give you both hands,
• 23:31
  uh,
• 23:31
  giving you the air quotes because my elbow will hurt.
• 23:34
  Uh,
• 23:34
  but
• 23:35
  a sure thing always has air quotes.
• 23:36
  There's no such thing as a sure thing,
• 23:37
  right?
• 23:38
  But something that's very close to a sure thing,
• 23:41
  where you can find
• 23:42
  58,
• 23:43
  10,
• 23:44
  12% profit,
• 23:45
  right?
• 23:46
  In that range.
• 23:46
  It's not gonna change your life necessarily,
• 23:48
  but you can take a nice profit on something that is
• 23:51
  pretty close to a sure thing.
• 23:53
  That's opportunity number one.
• 23:54
  Opportunity number two
• 23:56
  is something in the mid-range,
• 23:57
  where
• 23:57
  you can find somebody uh who has maybe,
• 24:00
  you can get something more like 25,
• 24:02
  30,
• 24:03
  35% profit in that general vicinity.
• 24:06
  Um,
• 24:06
  on something that
• 24:08
  isn't quite a sure thing,
• 24:10
  but
• 24:11
  looks really good and has some value there.
• 24:13
  Maybe there's a 95% chance of it happening,
• 24:17
  and it's priced at 85% or 80%.
• 24:20
  And you can buy,
• 24:21
  if you don't know prediction markets,
• 24:22
  you can buy shares at 80 cents,
• 24:23
  and if you're correct,
• 24:24
  they will resolve at $1.
• 24:26
  That's a 25% profit
• 24:28
  over,
• 24:28
  as we said today,
• 24:29
  56 days until the election.
• 24:31
  So
• 24:31
  there are ways to be able to kind of cash in on that
• 24:34
  in a short period of time.
• 24:36
  And then you go to the,
• 24:37
  the longer shots,
• 24:39
  the really high value,
• 24:40
  right?
• 24:41
  These are candidates that I'm not 100% sure are going to win by any means,
• 24:44
  uh,
• 24:45
  but I think represent some real value.
• 24:47
  And that I would take anything from a real long shot that's in the 1,
• 24:50
  2% range.
• 24:51
  I don't know if we'll find anything way down there,
• 24:53
  up to something,
• 24:54
  uh,
• 24:54
  you know,
• 24:55
  maybe,
• 24:55
  you know,
• 24:56
  65,
• 24:56
  70%,
• 24:57
  right?
• 24:57
  Um,
• 24:58
  and that's kind of where we're gonna start today.
• 25:00
  This has been one of my favorite people ask me all the time,
• 25:02
  hey,
• 25:03
  what's the best value out there?
• 25:05
  What is the best value?
• 25:06
  And I,
• 25:06
  I,
• 25:07
  you know,
• 25:07
  it's hard to answer.
• 25:08
  There's so many of my adorable children,
• 25:10
  and I just,
• 25:10
  I can't pick my favorite,
• 25:11
  but
• 25:12
  This is the one that I tend to come to
• 25:14
  the most.
• 25:15
  Uh,
• 25:16
  here it is,
• 25:16
  this is our candidate of the day,
• 25:17
  56 days left until the midterms.
• 25:20
  Our candidate countdown,
• 25:22
  we're gonna give you one,
• 25:22
  and you might look at that at that silhouette and say,
• 25:24
  oh,
• 25:24
  it looks like we've got a lady candidate.
• 25:26
  How dare you?
• 25:27
  You have no idea what this gender is yet,
• 25:28
  I have not revealed it.
• 25:30
  OK,
• 25:30
  it could be anything,
• 25:31
  it could be any of the 65 genders at this point.
• 25:33
  Just because you see some long hair,
• 25:35
  it could be a stormtrooper.
• 25:36
  We have no idea.
• 25:37
  What if that's a stormtrooper helmet?
• 25:39
  We don't know,
• 25:40
  OK?
• 25:41
  But now you know,
• 25:42
  because it's Ashley Hinson.
• 25:43
  Ashley Hinson is the candidate for,
• 25:46
  uh,
• 25:47
  Senate in Iowa,
• 25:48
  and this has been one of the
• 25:49
  races I've been on
• 25:51
  for a long time.
• 25:53
  Let me give you,
• 25:53
  let me start with a case against Ashley,
• 25:56
  OK?
• 25:56
  Ashley is,
• 25:57
  uh,
• 25:58
  in a red state.
• 25:59
  Uh,
• 26:00
  she is a Republican.
• 26:01
  This is the type of race that Republicans should easily be able to handle.
• 26:05
  This should be easy
• 26:06
  for Republicans.
• 26:07
  This shouldn't be a heavy lift whatsoever.
• 26:09
  Republicans have increased.
• 26:11
  I mean,
• 26:11
  if you go back to,
• 26:12
  uh,
• 26:13
  Barack Obama 2008,
• 26:15
  he actually won Iowa.
• 26:16
  So we've seen a major move since that election.
• 26:20
  Toward,
• 26:20
  uh,
• 26:21
  Iowa becoming a much more red state
• 26:23
  and
• 26:23
  candidates in Iowa have cruised to victory since then.
• 26:27
  Famously,
• 26:27
  and we.
• 26:29
  I will tell you,
• 26:29
  cleaned up on this one in 2024,
• 26:32
  which was in Iowa,
• 26:33
  there was one poll that came out from
• 26:35
  everyone was saying the,
• 26:36
  uh,
• 26:37
  the kind of blue chip pollster of the state
• 26:40
  that had Kamala Harris winning
• 26:42
  in Iowa.
• 26:43
  And everyone freaked out about it.
• 26:44
  It was a big thing.
• 26:46
  The,
• 26:46
  um,
• 26:46
  percentage chance for,
• 26:48
  uh,
• 26:48
  Donald Trump to win Iowa dropped from,
• 26:51
  I want to say it was like 93 or 94
• 26:53
  down to 76 or something.
• 26:56
  And I can't even tell you,
• 26:57
  I was like,
• 26:58
  I was,
• 26:59
  I was going into 7-Elevens and just going in and just
• 27:02
  putting my hand in the penny jar and taking out,
• 27:04
  uh,
• 27:04
  the pennies
• 27:05
  and bringing them,
• 27:06
  uh,
• 27:06
  back home
• 27:07
  and,
• 27:07
  uh,
• 27:07
  and saying,
• 27:08
  look,
• 27:08
  uh,
• 27:08
  we'll,
• 27:08
  we'll come back for the Make A Wish Wish kids later.
• 27:11
  Um,
• 27:11
  right now,
• 27:11
  I need that money to get into Iowa
• 27:13
  on Donald Trump,
• 27:14
  which by the way,
• 27:15
  he wound up winning by,
• 27:16
  what was it,
• 27:16
  1114 points.
• 27:17
  Something like,
• 27:17
  I think it was low double digits.
• 27:19
  It was not a close race.
• 27:20
  It was just a poll that missed,
• 27:21
  uh,
• 27:21
  you know,
• 27:22
  I don't know what,
• 27:23
  what the methodology was.
• 27:24
  She was very,
• 27:24
  very highly respected.
• 27:25
  A week later,
• 27:26
  I think she retired.
• 27:27
  It was not a good outcome for her.
• 27:29
  Uh,
• 27:29
  but bottom line is,
• 27:30
  you do see those things happen.
• 27:32
  We look for those mistakes.
• 27:34
  You know,
• 27:35
  people are like,
• 27:35
  oh gosh,
• 27:36
  can you believe they're doing fake polls?
• 27:37
  Good.
• 27:38
  I
• 27:39
  do fake polls all you want.
• 27:40
  You can throw those fake polls all you want,
• 27:42
  and they can,
• 27:43
  what do they accomplish?
• 27:45
  They might move prediction markets for a short period of time,
• 27:47
  but of course then people who go in there and say,
• 27:49
  wait a minute,
• 27:50
  that doesn't seem right,
• 27:51
  are able to write those markets as we did,
• 27:54
  and by the way,
• 27:54
  it was up uh went from the 70s into the 80s.
• 27:57
  I think around election day it was in the high
• 27:58
  80s and wound up resolving pretty quickly on election night.
• 28:01
  Uh,
• 28:02
  all that to be said is
• 28:03
  this should be easy
• 28:05
  for,
• 28:06
  uh,
• 28:07
  for Republicans in Iowa,
• 28:08
  and Ashley Hinson is a,
• 28:10
  a good candidate.
• 28:10
  She's not,
• 28:11
  uh,
• 28:11
  you know,
• 28:12
  every once in a while you get a candidate who has all sorts of problems,
• 28:14
  and that's the reason
• 28:15
  why,
• 28:16
  uh,
• 28:16
  this particular candidate is weak.
• 28:18
  We'll tell you the reason why this,
• 28:20
  I think,
• 28:20
  is available at this price here in just a second.
• 28:22
  Another issue here is,
• 28:24
  uh,
• 28:24
  in,
• 28:25
  uh,
• 28:25
  there's a story in Newsweek,
• 28:26
  uh,
• 28:26
  Ashley Hinson's chances in Iowa Senate
• 28:28
  race amid beef backlash.
• 28:31
  Now,
• 28:31
  of course,
• 28:31
  you know,
• 28:31
  you're thinking of Iowa,
• 28:32
  you got a rural state,
• 28:33
  you got a farming,
• 28:34
  uh,
• 28:34
  community.
• 28:35
  And,
• 28:36
  uh,
• 28:37
  there's a lot of controversies going on there.
• 28:39
  The tariffs are,
• 28:39
  are particularly
• 28:41
  have hit that community pretty hard.
• 28:43
  And so that's been an issue,
• 28:44
  uh,
• 28:44
  that Hinton's had to fight off.
• 28:46
  Uh,
• 28:46
  in addition to that,
• 28:48
  there,
• 28:48
  uh,
• 28:49
  Donald Trump is trying to,
• 28:50
  uh,
• 28:51
  you know,
• 28:51
  help people.
• 28:52
  He's looking at affordability and he's saying,
• 28:53
  OK,
• 28:54
  well,
• 28:54
  prices are too,
• 28:55
  uh,
• 28:55
  high
• 28:56
  on beef,
• 28:56
  we're gonna import more beef.
• 28:58
  Well,
• 28:58
  that might sound good to Some people,
• 29:00
  because they're gonna get lower prices of beef.
• 29:02
  Again,
• 29:03
  you know,
• 29:03
  tariffs increase the prices of products.
• 29:05
  That's just,
• 29:06
  you know,
• 29:06
  it is what happens,
• 29:07
  the tax on top of it,
• 29:08
  and we can argue about that another time if you don't agree.
• 29:10
  But the bottom line is prices go
• 29:12
  up,
• 29:12
  generally speaking,
• 29:13
  uh,
• 29:13
  not necessarily the only reason they're going up by any means,
• 29:15
  but they don't,
• 29:16
  it doesn't help.
• 29:17
  So he's trying to help with more imports
• 29:20
  that,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:20
  is,
• 29:21
  uh,
• 29:21
  potentially going to help the price of beef go down a little bit,
• 29:24
  but
• 29:25
  If you're a state that depends on domestic beef,
• 29:28
  you might not be as excited about these types of outcomes.
• 29:31
  Long story short,
• 29:32
  Hinson is seen
• 29:34
  to be in a little bit of trouble.
• 29:36
  Uh,
• 29:36
  and I talked about this race all the way back to,
• 29:39
  I think the first thing we published on PredictableShow.com,
• 29:41
  2026 Senate preview.
• 29:43
  Uh,
• 29:44
  this is,
• 29:44
  you can go back and look at this now.
• 29:45
  I think it's pretty much held up.
• 29:46
  I'd like to go back and maybe look at that and see in a little bit more detail.
• 29:50
  Um,
• 29:50
  uh,
• 29:50
  but Iowa was when we talked about the number one.
• 29:54
  Uh,
• 29:55
  opportunity
• 29:56
  was in Iowa.
• 29:58
  Again,
• 29:58
  this is a state Republicans should win relatively easily.
• 30:01
  One of the reasons why
• 30:03
  this
• 30:03
  is available at the price that it's at
• 30:06
  is actually not because of the Senate race at all.
• 30:08
  It's because of the gubernatorial race.
• 30:10
  Let me show you the gubernatorial race market if we could.
• 30:12
  This is,
• 30:13
  uh,
• 30:13
  and we've talked about this one a decent amount.
• 30:16
  This is Iowa
• 30:17
  and Rob Sand,
• 30:19
  uh,
• 30:19
  uh,
• 30:19
  is against Zach,
• 30:20
  uh,
• 30:20
  Lane in,
• 30:21
  uh,
• 30:21
  in Iowa
• 30:22
  55 days before the election.
• 30:24
  I don't know why they,
• 30:24
  Cal she says 55 days,
• 30:25
  we say 56.
• 30:26
  What is,
• 30:27
  what's the difference there?
• 30:28
  One of us is counting wrong.
• 30:29
  Anyway,
• 30:30
  um,
• 30:30
  uh,
• 30:30
  they have a Democrat in Iowa
• 30:33
  with a 75% chance of winning this election.
• 30:36
  And
• 30:37
  really the polling backs up the idea that the Republican
• 30:41
  is in real trouble
• 30:42
  in Iowa.
• 30:44
  And this has,
• 30:45
  I think,
• 30:45
  given,
• 30:46
  uh,
• 30:46
  the,
• 30:47
  the overall
• 30:48
  appearance in Iowa
• 30:49
  that it is a state moving away from Republicans.
• 30:54
  You dig into the data underlying this though,
• 30:56
  there's not that much evidence.
• 30:57
  It,
• 30:57
  it,
• 30:58
  it does appear that Sand is the type of candidate that,
• 31:02
  uh,
• 31:02
  Iowa really likes.
• 31:03
  There's a familiarity there,
• 31:05
  and they've attached to this guy for a long time.
• 31:08
  Uh,
• 31:09
  I don't think it's out of the question that Lane wins this race,
• 31:11
  but,
• 31:11
  uh,
• 31:12
  you know,
• 31:13
  Sand is the one who is heavily favored here.
• 31:15
  And because of that,
• 31:16
  it's sort of casting this,
• 31:18
  um,
• 31:19
  uh,
• 31:19
  this sort of aura over the state.
• 31:22
  The other thing is,
• 31:22
  as we've become more partisan over the years,
• 31:24
  we've seen much uh
• 31:27
  fewer instances of split ticket balloting
• 31:29
  where people will be like,
• 31:30
  oh,
• 31:30
  I'll vote for one Republican and one Democrat.
• 31:32
  That happens less and less.
• 31:34
  And so people are assuming,
• 31:35
  oh well,
• 31:35
  they're gonna go there and gonna vote for Sand,
• 31:37
  and then they're gonna also go over there and vote for the Democrat
• 31:39
  in the,
• 31:40
  uh,
• 31:40
  in the race for,
• 31:41
  uh,
• 31:41
  senator.
• 31:43
  Uh,
• 31:43
  I just,
• 31:43
  I,
• 31:43
  I,
• 31:44
  I honestly don't think that's going to be the way that this goes.
• 31:46
  Let me show you the,
• 31:47
  uh,
• 31:47
  Republican,
• 31:48
  uh,
• 31:48
  or the,
• 31:49
  uh,
• 31:49
  race for,
• 31:49
  um,
• 31:50
  Senate,
• 31:50
  uh,
• 31:50
  with Ashley Hinson,
• 31:52
  uh,
• 31:52
  right now.
• 31:53
  And this is,
• 31:53
  this is against Josh Turrick,
• 31:55
  uh,
• 31:55
  in the state.
• 31:56
  Um,
• 31:57
  let's bring up that market if we could.
• 31:58
  Here it is,
• 31:58
  uh,
• 31:59
  63% chance for Ashley Hinson
• 32:02
  to win.
• 32:02
  She's still the favorite.
• 32:03
  You see the narrowing there,
• 32:05
  and the narrowing has been happening for a decent amount
• 32:08
  of time.
• 32:09
  Uh,
• 32:09
  if you go back,
• 32:10
  bring me back to,
• 32:10
  uh,
• 32:11
  you know,
• 32:11
  October 2025,
• 32:13
  um,
• 32:14
  there we go.
• 32:14
  Yeah,
• 32:15
  look at Ashley
• 32:15
  Hinson at 73.5%.
• 32:18
  You see that narrowing happening this entire time as Turic has picked up.
• 32:21
  Now Turic is not a bad.
• 32:23
  Candidate aesthetically,
• 32:24
  uh,
• 32:25
  he's not a crazy,
• 32:26
  you know,
• 32:26
  he's not a democratic socialist or anything like that.
• 32:29
  Um,
• 32:29
  so
• 32:30
  that,
• 32:30
  that would make it much easier
• 32:32
  for Henson to win.
• 32:33
  But if you see this kind of narrow,
• 32:34
  let's follow this timeline a little bit to,
• 32:36
  let's go to January.
• 32:37
  Uh,
• 32:37
  January,
• 32:38
  there we go,
• 32:39
  uh,
• 32:39
  in,
• 32:39
  in the,
• 32:40
  in the 60s,
• 32:41
  you've seen that kind of go down
• 32:42
  and down and down,
• 32:43
  and you've seen more value.
• 32:45
  Um,
• 32:45
  where it actually popped,
• 32:47
  uh,
• 32:48
  in the 60s into the 50s for a time.
• 32:50
  What's the low there,
• 32:51
  Adam?
• 32:51
  Uh,
• 32:51
  it looks like a little bit further,
• 32:53
  not a little bit further,
• 32:54
  uh,
• 32:55
  a little bit more,
• 32:55
  you see the drop for the red,
• 32:56
  the lowest part where the red is,
• 32:58
  a little bit more right there.
• 32:59
  Uh,
• 32:59
  go back a little bit.
• 33:01
  Uh,
• 33:02
  54.7%
• 33:04
  this was.
• 33:05
  Again,
• 33:06
  54.7%.
• 33:08
  That means for every,
• 33:08
  let's say 55 cents that you invest,
• 33:11
  you get another 45 cents of profit.
• 33:13
  You're talking,
• 33:14
  I don't know,
• 33:14
  what is that,
• 33:14
  a 90% profit margin?
• 33:17
  That's an incredible value for a Republican
• 33:19
  in Iowa.
• 33:20
  When you look at the data for the state,
• 33:22
  what you see
• 33:23
  is that there has not been
• 33:25
  this big change
• 33:26
  to a bunch of people changing to Democrats.
• 33:29
  What we've seen is actually Republicans slightly
• 33:32
  increasing their registration edge.
• 33:35
  In the past couple of years.
• 33:38
  They've actually increased
• 33:39
  the amount of Republican advantage in this state.
• 33:42
  Now,
• 33:43
  I don't know that that's gonna save the Republican gubernatorial candidate.
• 33:46
  Much more skeptical on that one.
• 33:48
  But I will be surprised if Ashley Hinson can't hold this out,
• 33:51
  and she's at 65%,
• 33:53
  uh,
• 33:54
  roughly 63%.
• 33:55
  So you think about that,
• 33:57
  65,
• 33:58
  a 35%,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 33:59
  advantage,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 34:00
  you know,
• 34:00
  you're over a 35% gain on every 65 cents that you invest.
• 34:04
  Is well over a 50% profit
• 34:07
  into the sixties.
• 34:08
  That's a huge opportunity for two months.
• 34:10
  I don't know what your bank account's paying you these days,
• 34:12
  but I bet it's not 60% in two months.
• 34:14
  Now,
• 34:14
  I'm not,
• 34:14
  this isn't a sure thing.
• 34:16
  There's a,
• 34:16
  this is more of a higher profit margin.
• 34:18
  I think there's real value here.
• 34:19
  I think she's got an 85% chance of winning this race,
• 34:22
  frankly.
• 34:23
  Uh,
• 34:23
  maybe higher.
• 34:24
  By the way,
• 34:25
  polling seems to suggest this is true.
• 34:27
  Uh,
• 34:27
  she's winning in the polls.
• 34:29
  She's been leading in the polls this whole time.
• 34:31
  The idea is basically they're pricing in
• 34:34
  complete Republican collapse,
• 34:36
  and that is worth pricing in.
• 34:38
  I just don't think it's worth pricing in more than
• 34:40
  10,
• 34:40
  15%.
• 34:41
  So Ashley Hinson,
• 34:43
  I think there's real value here,
• 34:44
  and she is our candidate countdown candidate of the day.
• 34:48
  Uh,
• 34:48
  so if,
• 34:48
  if you're looking to get into these,
• 34:50
  and by the way,
• 34:50
  these will not all be Republicans.
• 34:52
  I'm not gonna be like,
• 34:52
  hey,
• 34:53
  all Republicans win.
• 34:54
  I got a ton of Democrats.
• 34:55
  Honestly,
• 34:56
  it's easier to find Democrats with value right now than it is with Republicans.
• 34:59
  Uh,
• 34:59
  you know,
• 35:00
  Republicans,
• 35:00
  this particular race I've liked for a long time,
• 35:02
  wanted to get you in on this before.
• 35:03
  I think it will go up.
• 35:04
  We will see,
• 35:05
  uh,
• 35:05
  how this plays.
• 35:06
  Out over time,
• 35:07
  but that's it.
• 35:08
  Ashley Hinson
• 35:09
  over Josh Turrick,
• 35:10
  uh,
• 35:10
  is my,
• 35:10
  uh,
• 35:10
  first
• 35:11
  candidate
• 35:12
  countdown candidate of the day.
• 35:14
  We have more including,
• 35:15
  uh,
• 35:15
  what's coming up in the primaries tonight.
• 35:17
  Uh,
• 35:17
  we'll do that
• 35:18
  coming up here on Predictable with Stu.
• 35:20
  By the way,
• 35:20
  if you want all my picks,
• 35:21
  they are available at predictableshow.com for premium subscribers.
• 35:25
  You don't wanna wait for uh the daily candidate of the day.
• 35:27
  I get it.
• 35:27
  They're all listed up there
• 35:29
  on predictableShow.com.
• 35:31
  Over 200
• 35:32
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• 35:36
  politics,
• 35:36
  you know,
• 35:37
  Supreme Court,
• 35:37
  uh,
• 35:38
  culture,
• 35:39
  sports,
• 35:39
  all sorts of stuff.
• 35:41
  Um,
• 35:41
  people have done really well with them,
• 35:42
  and,
• 35:42
  and you know,
• 35:43
  we've,
• 35:43
  we've already heard from
• 35:44
  many members who have said,
• 35:45
  hey.
• 35:46
  This is great.
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• 35:48
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  So,
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  join us there.
• 35:56
  Back in a second.
• 36:09
  We're here,
• 36:09
  we're here in Dallas and uh we are waiting for the
• 36:12
  uh the big convention to begin.
• 36:14
  This is the GOP opening the first ever midterm convention in Dallas
• 36:18
  as Texas US Senate race hangs in the balance.
• 36:21
  This is a positive,
• 36:22
  by the way,
• 36:22
  if you're interested in the Texas races.
• 36:25
  A lot of attention being put on them right now.
• 36:27
  Um,
• 36:28
  one of the big issues with those races,
• 36:30
  particularly the Paxton,
• 36:31
  uh,
• 36:31
  race,
• 36:32
  uh,
• 36:32
  versus Talrico,
• 36:33
  is how is money.
• 36:34
  I mean,
• 36:35
  they're just flooding Tal Rico with tons and tons and tons of cash,
• 36:39
  um,
• 36:40
  and so
• 36:41
  it's one of those situations where you'd say,
• 36:43
  OK,
• 36:43
  well,
• 36:44
  uh,
• 36:44
  maybe,
• 36:45
  maybe not,
• 36:46
  uh,
• 36:46
  maybe,
• 36:46
  uh,
• 36:47
  you know,
• 36:47
  uh,
• 36:47
  maybe Paxton's not gonna be able to pull this through as a Republican.
• 36:50
  There will be a bunch of money coming in on the Republican side here
• 36:54
  and a lot of attention,
• 36:55
  kind of,
• 36:55
  I think,
• 36:55
  you know,
• 36:56
  it's,
• 36:56
  it's Texas.
• 36:56
  I feel like.
• 36:58
  It's different than it was in the Northeast.
• 36:59
  The Northeast people are enjoying the summer,
• 37:01
  um,
• 37:01
  but it still feels sort of normal,
• 37:04
  you know,
• 37:04
  this time of year in Texas feels like you're just in pain,
• 37:06
  and not just because you're an idiot and you break your elbow,
• 37:09
  but also because it's 500 degrees outside and no
• 37:11
  one wants to do anything or think about anything or
• 37:14
  just even contemplate,
• 37:15
  uh,
• 37:15
  life.
• 37:17
  That does start to change.
• 37:18
  Um,
• 37:18
  we,
• 37:18
  we,
• 37:19
  we can show you some data on that here in a little bit,
• 37:21
  but
• 37:22
  Let me give you a couple of fun things
• 37:23
  to do if you're interested in watching the convention.
• 37:25
  By the way,
• 37:26
  I think there was a Democratic,
• 37:27
  there were a couple of Democratic midterm conventions.
• 37:28
  They bailed on the idea,
• 37:29
  thought it was a waste of money.
• 37:31
  We'll see.
• 37:31
  I don't think,
• 37:32
  I think this,
• 37:32
  this is sort of where Trump shines right in this convention sort of context.
• 37:36
  So it does seem like this is probably a good idea for Republicans to at least try to,
• 37:39
  to,
• 37:39
  to stem the tide of the Democrats.
• 37:42
  Couple of fun things though,
• 37:42
  who will,
• 37:43
  uh,
• 37:43
  speak?
• 37:43
  The 2026 Republican midterm
• 37:45
  convention.
• 37:46
  Uh,
• 37:46
  if you kind of scroll down,
• 37:47
  you can see some of these,
• 37:48
  uh,
• 37:48
  ideas there.
• 37:48
  You get,
• 37:49
  uh,
• 37:49
  Vivek Ramaswamy,
• 37:51
  um,
• 37:51
  Laura Trump,
• 37:53
  uh,
• 37:53
  go back up to the top a little bit more.
• 37:55
  Yeah,
• 37:55
  let's see.
• 37:56
  Uh,
• 37:56
  Ken Paxton,
• 37:56
  of course,
• 37:57
  you feel Ted Cruz will probably speak.
• 37:59
  Mike Johnson,
• 38:00
  Byron Donalds,
• 38:00
  he's the guy,
• 38:01
  a Republican in Florida running for governor,
• 38:03
  Vivek Ramaswamy in a very tight race.
• 38:05
  Uh,
• 38:06
  I guess an interesting candidate,
• 38:08
  uh,
• 38:08
  there,
• 38:09
  a 45% chance,
• 38:10
  Laura Trump,
• 38:10
  41%,
• 38:11
  Stephen Miller,
• 38:12
  26%,
• 38:13
  and it kind of goes down,
• 38:14
  uh,
• 38:15
  from there.
• 38:15
  So there's a whole list as to that,
• 38:17
  trying to predict who's going to actually speak.
• 38:18
  And then if they do speak,
• 38:19
  what are they gonna say?
• 38:20
  Trump,
• 38:21
  we expect,
• 38:21
  of course,
• 38:21
  to speak.
• 38:22
  He's gonna be speaking,
• 38:23
  uh,
• 38:23
  on night two of the convention.
• 38:25
  What will he be talking about?
• 38:26
  What are the things,
• 38:27
  what are the topics he's going to be hitting?
• 38:29
  There's a market for that as well,
• 38:30
  a mention market that is what they call these.
• 38:33
  You can kind of watch along.
• 38:34
  It's almost like a live event.
• 38:35
  These are really fun to do.
• 38:36
  Maybe,
• 38:36
  you know,
• 38:36
  we'll try to do one of them,
• 38:38
  uh,
• 38:38
  if we can,
• 38:39
  uh,
• 38:39
  but you talk,
• 38:40
  will he talk about,
• 38:41
  scroll down a little bit,
• 38:41
  if we talk about Space Force,
• 38:43
  69% chance he'll talk about Space Force.
• 38:45
  Will he mention,
• 38:46
  will he say the words Democrats?
• 38:47
  Hottest is always one I like on these because he,
• 38:50
  Trump loves saying hottest.
• 38:51
  He just loves saying it's the hottest country in the world.
• 38:53
  It's the greatest thing ever.
• 38:55
  Uh,
• 38:55
  MAGA,
• 38:56
  endorse,
• 38:57
  endorsement,
• 38:58
  like you see these things,
• 38:59
  lots and lots of phrases here
• 39:00
  as you scroll through them,
• 39:02
  and you can see,
• 39:03
  you know,
• 39:03
  many of them,
• 39:04
  especially with Trump,
• 39:04
  it's interesting because he says he usually goes really
• 39:07
  long and a lot of it's sort of like.
• 39:09
  Off the top of his head.
• 39:11
  So
• 39:11
  he can go in any direction at any time,
• 39:13
  and a lot of the yeses wind up pulling through.
• 39:14
  Go down to some of the long shots here.
• 39:15
  Uh,
• 39:16
  scroll down to some of the long shots like,
• 39:17
  will he say
• 39:18
  crypto?
• 39:18
  Crypto is always listed on there.
• 39:20
  Doesn't typically do that.
• 39:22
  Um,
• 39:22
  that's a 6% chance,
• 39:23
  ceasefire at 16% chance,
• 39:25
  fentanyl
• 39:26
  at 15%.
• 39:27
  Same thing with JD Vance,
• 39:28
  there's a market for that as well.
• 39:29
  What will JD Vance,
• 39:31
  uh,
• 39:31
  say during the RNC,
• 39:33
  uh,
• 39:33
  convention?
• 39:34
  Again,
• 39:34
  that is going on right now,
• 39:35
  right down the road.
• 39:36
  Uh,
• 39:37
  so I don't know,
• 39:37
  we'll see.
• 39:38
  Depending on,
• 39:39
  on how all this works out,
• 39:40
  we may try to get a couple of guests in,
• 39:42
  uh,
• 39:42
  who are here for the convention,
• 39:43
  uh,
• 39:43
  to talk about some of these races.
• 39:45
  This is the JD Vance market if we have it.
• 39:47
  Um,
• 39:47
  this is what we say,
• 39:48
  same type of stuff if you kind of scroll down.
• 39:50
  These are fun to play though,
• 39:51
  tariffs,
• 39:52
  we talk about working class,
• 39:53
  we talk about fraud,
• 39:54
  we talk about Biden,
• 39:55
  uh,
• 39:56
  we talk about socialism,
• 39:57
  uh,
• 39:58
  no tax on tips,
• 39:59
  uh,
• 39:59
  all these different things
• 40:00
  you can again.
• 40:02
  Take one of these positions,
• 40:03
  say,
• 40:03
  yeah,
• 40:03
  they're gonna say,
• 40:04
  um,
• 40:05
  America 1st.
• 40:06
  31% chance it says in the market if you invest 31 cents,
• 40:09
  you get 69 cents
• 40:10
  in addition to your original investment back.
• 40:12
  So you're talking over 200% gains,
• 40:15
  uh,
• 40:15
  on those long shots,
• 40:16
  and a lot of these on,
• 40:17
  on the mention markets in particular
• 40:18
  wind up doing that.
• 40:19
  This will be interesting we just see if PMT will come on
• 40:21
  and talk about some of these if he's gonna play these markets because
• 40:24
  this is a great time,
• 40:25
  uh,
• 40:25
  to talk about the,
• 40:26
  the,
• 40:26
  the mention markets.
• 40:27
  He's a big
• 40:28
  prediction market,
• 40:29
  uh,
• 40:29
  trader,
• 40:30
  particularly in mention markets.
• 40:31
  Uh,
• 40:32
  and then we have the the primary tonight as well.
• 40:34
  New Hampshire primary tests,
• 40:36
  tests,
• 40:36
  uh,
• 40:37
  Trump and the left
• 40:38
  from NBC News.
• 40:40
  Um,
• 40:41
  and,
• 40:41
  uh,
• 40:42
  most of the polls closing around 7 o'clock Eastern time.
• 40:45
  I think some close at like 8,
• 40:47
  so we'll have a little bit of an open window
• 40:48
  as to when these votes start coming out officially.
• 40:51
  Usually they,
• 40:52
  they leak out to the media sources.
• 40:53
  They won't call the race until all the polls close,
• 40:55
  but we'll start seeing them.
• 40:57
  The main thing,
• 40:58
  honestly,
• 40:58
  I've been in this market for a while is on,
• 41:00
  uh,
• 41:00
  John Sununu in the Senate.
• 41:02
  Now,
• 41:02
  do we have that Senate market Republican Senate nominee?
• 41:05
  Uh,
• 41:06
  there's not much left here,
• 41:06
  I will say.
• 41:07
  Uh,
• 41:08
  if you see John E.
• 41:08
  Sununu at 9499.4%,
• 41:12
  Scott Brown,
• 41:12
  who is seen as a pretty
• 41:14
  legitimate competitor,
• 41:16
  he is a former senator,
• 41:17
  uh,
• 41:17
  in Massachusetts,
• 41:18
  has moved to New Hampshire,
• 41:20
  was running here,
• 41:21
  but just has not been competitive in any of the polling.
• 41:23
  I like,
• 41:24
  uh,
• 41:24
  John Sununu from the beginning on this one.
• 41:26
  And you know,
• 41:27
  caught it in the eighties.
• 41:28
  Uh,
• 41:28
  now it's up to 99.4% though,
• 41:30
  so it's not really going to be,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:32
  there's not much there.
• 41:33
  You,
• 41:33
  you could try one of the things we talk about is laddering,
• 41:36
  which is a,
• 41:37
  uh,
• 41:37
  trading strategy where you take someone who has a
• 41:40
  go the opposite way,
• 41:41
  pick up,
• 41:42
  you know,
• 41:42
  for 10 bucks,
• 41:43
  pick up a few,
• 41:43
  uh,
• 41:44
  you know,
• 41:44
  you might get 1000 shares or more
• 41:46
  of Scott Brown,
• 41:47
  and maybe he pops up to 2 or 3%,
• 41:50
  and he can kind of go in and cash out on that.
• 41:52
  You know,
• 41:52
  it's a,
• 41:53
  it's more of a fun,
• 41:54
  somewhat risky strategy.
• 41:55
  It has worked a lot for us and we've seen some.
• 41:57
  In fact,
• 41:57
  there was one candidate a couple of weeks ago
• 42:00
  who
• 42:00
  was in that area and wound up winning,
• 42:02
  so it went all the way to 100%.
• 42:04
  Uh,
• 42:04
  I didn't unfortunately catch that one,
• 42:06
  but I do know people who did.
• 42:07
  Uh,
• 42:07
  we had,
• 42:08
  I've had a bunch of those that,
• 42:09
  you know,
• 42:09
  uh,
• 42:10
  you know,
• 42:10
  the Haley Hail Mary is a famous example of this where we had her,
• 42:13
  we're buying her,
• 42:14
  you know,
• 42:15
  $0.5
• 42:15
  and she went up to 30 or 40 cents.
• 42:17
  I don't remember what it was,
• 42:18
  and we made a lot of money on that.
• 42:19
  OK,
• 42:20
  uh,
• 42:21
  that's what we have for tonight if you are.
• 42:23
  Interested in this race,
• 42:23
  you wanna look for some picks,
• 42:25
  uh,
• 42:25
  some
• 42:25
  back and forth.
• 42:26
  We'll get into more depth at predictableShow.com as,
• 42:29
  as to the individual
• 42:30
  races.
• 42:31
  There are a few that are more interesting than the top of the ticket there.
• 42:34
  That race has just been the one that I followed the most closely and,
• 42:36
  and,
• 42:37
  and invested the most in by far.
• 42:39
  Uh,
• 42:39
  predictableShow.com,
• 42:40
  predictableShow.com.
• 42:42
  Go there,
• 42:43
  uh,
• 42:43
  and you can get,
• 42:44
  uh,
• 42:44
  you can get the pics.
• 42:45
  All,
• 42:45
  all the pics are available for premium subscribers,
• 42:47
  and we'll do a lot of the conversation there.
• 42:49
  I will say,
• 42:49
  by the way,
• 42:49
  the chat there is awesome.
• 42:51
  People are awesome on there.
• 42:52
  Uh,
• 42:52
  if you have any just basic questions,
• 42:53
  you're like,
• 42:54
  hey,
• 42:54
  I don't understand X A Y X Y
• 42:56
  Z here and how even how To do prediction markets.
• 42:58
  Can somebody help me?
• 43:00
  Tons of people there that will like just jump in out of the kindness of
• 43:02
  their own heart and just help you because there's just a really cool community.
• 43:05
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• 43:07
  don't worry about that.
• 43:08
  You,
• 43:08
  you will get a great community either way
• 43:10
  as part of,
• 43:11
  uh,
• 43:11
  just going to predictableShow.com.
• 43:13
  All right,
• 43:13
  back in a second.
• 43:23
  One of the most frustrating things about my idiotic injury has been,
• 43:26
  it's just a terrible time for it,
• 43:28
  right?
• 43:28
  We're just in the middle of election
• 43:29
  craziness.
• 43:30
  There's so many things going on.
• 43:31
  We have so many exciting things happening at predictableShow.com,
• 43:34
  uh,
• 43:35
  and,
• 43:35
  uh,
• 43:35
  and here on the program.
• 43:37
  We would love for you to join us on YouTube,
• 43:38
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• 43:40
  and on social media wherever you can find us,
• 43:42
  uh,
• 43:42
  at predictable show.
• 43:44
  Uh,
• 43:44
  dot com as well.
• 43:45
  We've got,
• 43:46
  uh,
• 43:47
  the,
• 43:47
  the convention going on this week.
• 43:48
  We've got,
• 43:49
  uh,
• 43:49
  candidates of the day that we're gonna be rolling out every single day.
• 43:52
  We've got all the picks that are coming out.
• 43:54
  We've got an election model to tell you what we think is gonna,
• 43:56
  well,
• 43:56
  at least what the experts
• 43:58
  and all the data says is going to happen.
• 44:00
  And then we have,
• 44:01
  uh,
• 44:02
  a,
• 44:02
  a bunch of new big announcements honestly happening here in the next week or so.
• 44:07
  Uh,
• 44:07
  so lots of really exciting things.
• 44:09
  I think you'll be excited as well.
• 44:11
  So,
• 44:12
  continue to join us.
• 44:13
  Go to predictableShow.com.
• 44:14
  Join us as a premium subscriber if you can,
• 44:16
  if you wanna get extra picks
• 44:17
  for tonight in uh New Hampshire and all the stuff that's going on.
• 44:20
  Join us there.
• 44:21
  It's predictableShow.com.
• 44:23
  We gotta run.
• 44:23
  We'll see you tomorrow.