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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: A twenty nine on a Tuesday. It is that time
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  Speaker 1: of week. I always look forward to it. I know
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  Speaker 1: you do too as well. To retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel
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  Speaker 1: Davis for the alliteratively titled Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Find
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  Speaker 1: him online wherever you get your podcast, look for Daniel
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  Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive. You'd be glad you did, because he
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  Speaker 1: has a great He does a great job explaining the
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  Speaker 1: complicated realities of war, which we've been out a roll
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  Speaker 1: on this one. Daniel Davis, Welcome back to the fifty
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  Speaker 1: five KRCY Morning Show. My friend, always a pleasure.
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  Speaker 2: God with the morning. Tell you Brian, good to see you.
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  Speaker 1: Hey, I can see you, and the technical issues have
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  Speaker 1: been resolved. I see Joe Streckers back where he belongs
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  Speaker 1: to the production boost. So those details ironed out now.
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  Speaker 1: I mean I was doing Dealer's Choice last week. We're
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  Speaker 1: a pick a topic. I just wanted to start on
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  Speaker 1: the rush of Ukraine situation this morning because I saw
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  Speaker 1: a couple of articles and headlines I kind of wanted
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  Speaker 1: to bounce off you and get your reaction. First Off,
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  Speaker 1: you've documented, explained many many times the precarious situation, the
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  Speaker 1: Ukrainians are in relative to the strength of Russia's military.
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  Speaker 1: Ukraine's running out of soldiers, warm bodies, They're short on equipment,
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  Speaker 1: They're begging the world for assistance and help, and YadA, YadA, YadA.
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  Speaker 1: I saw this article, and while the article does acknowledge,
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  Speaker 1: you know, it's like the fog of war. The numbers
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  Speaker 1: are a bit fuzzy, but a lot of Ukrainian soldiers
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  Speaker 1: are deserting. And the one article I read was Ukrainian
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  Speaker 1: prosecutors handling more than three hundred thousand desertion cases. The
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  Speaker 1: number of people deserting and the number of people deserting
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  Speaker 1: within any given time frame, regardless of the overall number,
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  Speaker 1: is pretty substantial. That this is a part of the
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  Speaker 1: problem they're facing that I wasn't even aware of. I
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  Speaker 1: get the concept of desertion, but if you can't get
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  Speaker 1: your own citizens to fight against the Russians, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: this is just another domino falling for Ukraine. Do you
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  Speaker 1: think these figures are accurate? Is that kind of your
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  Speaker 1: understanding of what's on the front lines in the battle.
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  Speaker 2: They are accurate, And I can tell you I have
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  Speaker 2: firsthand knowledge from a former cabinet official in the first
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  Speaker 2: couple of years of the Zelenski administration out of Kiev,
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  Speaker 2: and they said that the situation is generally worse than
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  Speaker 2: what's being reported because they try to put a cap
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  Speaker 2: on all the bad news. You have a combination of
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  Speaker 2: several things working together that are fatal to the Ukraine.
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  Speaker 1: Side.
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  Speaker 2: Number one is the desertions you mentioned like that. I
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  Speaker 2: think that they're working three hundred thousand. They've had one
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  Speaker 2: hundred and sixty one thousand between January first and October
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  Speaker 2: thirty first. I don't know what the numbers are for
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  Speaker 2: the month of November, but it was one hundred and
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  Speaker 2: sixty one thousand. Then at the same time you had
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  Speaker 2: approximately two hundred thousand men of between the ages of
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  Speaker 2: eighteen and twenty two flee the country.
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  Speaker 1: They left.
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  Speaker 2: You have somewhere around seventeen thousand force mobilizations per month
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  Speaker 2: that they bring in, and then there's the it's still
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  Speaker 2: a state secret, but some huge number of casualties per month.
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  Speaker 2: And when you see the number of men that are
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  Speaker 2: force mobilized then come up and get wounded, of those
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  Speaker 2: that fight, then the number that flee because of that
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  Speaker 2: they left the country, and the desertions, you see that
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  Speaker 2: they are literally physically shrinking by a substantial portion every month,
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  Speaker 2: while the Russian side continues to grow every month because
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  Speaker 2: they recruit, not force mobilized, but recruit more people than
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  Speaker 2: they lose through all means every single month. So while
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  Speaker 2: they're getting bigger and stronger, the Ukraine side is shrinking.
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  Speaker 2: And it's just a mathematical certainty that at some point
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  Speaker 2: math will take its effect and you will see a
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  Speaker 2: collapse somewhere of the front. We're starting to see early
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  Speaker 2: signs of that in multiple places along the front line.
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  Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin had a press conference last night where he
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  Speaker 2: announced several cities had had followed, etc.
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  Speaker 1: Pikrovosk was one that he claimed to be captured. This
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  Speaker 1: the Russian proclaims final victory over Key City Pokrovosk on
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  Speaker 1: eve of Putin Witkoff peace plan meeting. Timing is everything,
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  Speaker 1: So they're going in with what arguably is yet another
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  Speaker 1: in their cap on the front lines to negotiate a resolution,
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  Speaker 1: which of course is going to require some land concessions,
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  Speaker 1: which sounds like the land concessions are going to be growing.
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  Speaker 2: Well, here's the issue. It's number one. There's no question
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  Speaker 2: that Russia announced that on the eve of Woodcoff's meeting intentionally.
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  Speaker 2: The fact is they basically already had it almost ten
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  Speaker 2: days ago. There was just a few outlying neighborhoods that
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  Speaker 2: they had to clear, and I guess they were waiting
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  Speaker 2: on this. I don't know, but I was wondering why
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  Speaker 2: they haven't announced it, because they have had effective control
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  Speaker 2: over it for nearly two weeks now. So that was Pokrovsk.
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  Speaker 2: Now that there are about two thousand additional Ukrainian troops
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  Speaker 2: that are physically surrounded in the sister city Mirnograd, there
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  Speaker 2: are now no more possibility of them escaping. In the
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  Speaker 2: Zaparisha area, there is another settlement that on the way
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  Speaker 2: to the city of Zaparision now putting that at risk.
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  Speaker 2: There is Krasny Leman has been seeing Russian advances. And
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  Speaker 2: then one of the biggest ones is up in the
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  Speaker 2: Kharkiv area, in a place called of Chansk has now
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  Speaker 2: also been completely captured by the Russians. And then one
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  Speaker 2: of the most important things Putin said that we didn't
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  Speaker 2: know yesterday was that they now have plans to capture
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  Speaker 2: the province of Nuper Krools start it's the city Denipro.
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  Speaker 2: They now are going to add another oblast that they're
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  Speaker 2: going to conquer and clear. That's news, and I'm sure
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  Speaker 2: that's gonna have a big effect when WHITCOF gets to town.
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  Speaker 2: But the bottom line for Russia is, y'all, I don't
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  Speaker 2: know why y'all are talking about security guarantees and coalition
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  Speaker 2: to the willing and stuff. He goes, because there's nothing
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  Speaker 2: you can do that's going to stop us from taking
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  Speaker 2: what we want on the battlefield. So you either have
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  Speaker 2: a negotiated settlement on the terms we're willing to contemplate today,
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  Speaker 2: or we will continue to go in at least up
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  Speaker 2: to the Danepa River. And I don't see anything that
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  Speaker 2: can stop the western side.
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  Speaker 1: And these regions you're referring to either captured or maybe
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  Speaker 1: will be captured up to the Never River. Are they
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  Speaker 1: Russian dominated? In other words, in early on we talked
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  Speaker 1: about Crimea. I mean, it was logical for Russia to
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  Speaker 1: want it was built made of primarily Russian sympathized leading
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  Speaker 1: individuals that just happen to be in the Ukraine border.
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  Speaker 1: I understand conceptually that are we starting to see the
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  Speaker 1: Russians get into areas that are devoutly shall I say,
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  Speaker 1: patriotically Ukrainian.
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  Speaker 2: No, no, they're not even close to that yet. Really,
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  Speaker 2: when you look at demographically everything up to the Danepa
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  Speaker 2: River is primarily ethnic Russian, and pretty substantial portion of it.
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  Speaker 2: The further west you go from the Danepa River, then
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  Speaker 2: the percentage just drop off perceptuously, and then it becomes,
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  Speaker 2: you know, furthest to the west it's you know, anti
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  Speaker 2: and violently anti Russian in the Ukrainian going forward. But
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  Speaker 2: you're talking about the cities of Kharkiv and Odessa, which
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  Speaker 2: are the two jewels that are still in Ukraine control.
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  Speaker 2: Those are heavily Russian population, and of course they claim
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  Speaker 2: historically they're Theirs, et cetera. But now then you see
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  Speaker 2: that they're moving towards that one in the Kharkiv in
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  Speaker 2: the north, because now they're into what's called the operation
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  Speaker 2: space of the Kharki Obelist leading right to the city.
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  Speaker 2: And then because of these shots that the West has
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  Speaker 2: been doing through Ukraine to take out their two of
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  Speaker 2: their big tankers in the so called Shadow Fleet, many
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  Speaker 2: in Russia are now saying, all right, that's the last straw.
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  Speaker 2: Now then the only way we can stop that is
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  Speaker 2: to take Odessa. And so this this may open up
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  Speaker 2: a new path to where they and they're going to
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  Speaker 2: be on go beyond the Daneper River in the south,
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  Speaker 2: even all the way to Danepper eventually. I don't know
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  Speaker 2: how long it might take, but that seems to be
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  Speaker 2: in the crosshairs now.
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  Speaker 1: Well, maybe the delay in negotiating a peace resolution is
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  Speaker 1: they want to capture all of the regions that they
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  Speaker 1: can claim are made up of these sort of Russian
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  Speaker 1: loyalist people.
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  Speaker 2: And look, let's just be blunt here, take the emotions
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  Speaker 2: out of it for a moment. Militarily, it makes a
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  Speaker 2: lot of sense for the Russians to say, hey, why
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  Speaker 2: do I want to worry about thinking about twenty eight
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  Speaker 2: points or nineteen points and give you this, then i'll
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  Speaker 2: take that. You can take this thing over here, when
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  Speaker 2: they can say, we'll just keep going like we are
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  Speaker 2: with the status quo until we don't have to negotiate anything.
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  Speaker 2: We'll simply take by force of arms what we want.
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  Speaker 2: The cost will be high, but they have the cost,
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  Speaker 2: They have the resources to pay that, both in blood,
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  Speaker 2: treasure and ammunition. They can do it. And so from
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  Speaker 2: that perspective, because Russia is thinking long term. They're not
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  Speaker 2: thinking just get to the end of the year or
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  Speaker 2: just get to the end of this war. They're thinking
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  Speaker 2: established security, you know, going forward for decades, et cetera.
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  Speaker 2: And for them to pay that process is not that
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  Speaker 2: high because the payoff for their country, as they see it,
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  Speaker 2: is high. That's the problem that I don't think we've
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  Speaker 2: come to grips with yet at the negotiating table.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and I'm sure that they're really looking forward to
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  Speaker 1: say so they can call something a win in the
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  Speaker 1: wind column after so many gimming the Soviet Union foul,
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  Speaker 1: they lost a lot of regions and provinces, they things
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  Speaker 1: move western. So I think they're in it for a
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  Speaker 1: you know, a moral victory as well as the land
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  Speaker 1: acquisition victory on top of everything. Would it would serve
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  Speaker 1: as least incentive for the patriotic Rush want to continue
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  Speaker 1: to fight this fight, unlike the Ukrainians who are apparently
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  Speaker 1: fleeing the battlefield.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and Brian, it's stronger than that because it's not
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  Speaker 2: just the ay of moral victory against Ukraine. It is
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  Speaker 2: a massive victory against NATO. And that's how they would
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  Speaker 2: see it because NATO has done everything in their power,
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  Speaker 2: fifty nations, all the stuff that we've given, everything that
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  Speaker 2: we've tried with training, with weapons, ammunition, the intelligence, support, targeting, support,
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  Speaker 2: long range. If all of that fails, it won't just
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  Speaker 2: be a paper victory. It will be a pretty substantial
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  Speaker 2: victory that many around the world will observe and go,
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  Speaker 2: holy smokes. Everything NATO tried to do failed. So it
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  Speaker 2: is a big deal. And one of the reasons why
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  Speaker 2: I think that we should say, let's don't get to
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  Speaker 2: that point. Let's have an ugly negotiated deal now, so
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  Speaker 2: that we can prevent them from getting all that kind
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  Speaker 2: of a victory, at least a full one, because otherwise
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  Speaker 2: it'll just look like we could do nothing and we
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  Speaker 2: could not stop the Russians all the way up to
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  Speaker 2: the border.
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  Speaker 1: Take your wins where you can get them. Apparently, one
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  Speaker 1: more thing I have to ask in you know, moving forward,
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  Speaker 1: in the aftermath of whatever this war leads to, whatever
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  Speaker 1: solution negotiated or not. The breadbasket of the region Ukraine
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  Speaker 1: talked about the fields, the grain, the abundance of all
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  Speaker 1: these resources. Who in the hell is going to be
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  Speaker 1: there to farm the land? Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, there's plenty of people that will farm
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  Speaker 2: it because it'll it'll just be under the Russian control,
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  Speaker 2: but the people themselves will will still farm it. The
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  Speaker 2: bigger problem, though, Brian, is that the amount of ordinance
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  Speaker 2: that had been expended there and bombs and unexploded ordinance,
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  Speaker 2: bomb fragments, et cetera, is so massive it's going to
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  Speaker 2: take I bet more than a decade, probably a lot
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  Speaker 2: more than a decade to get all that taken out.
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  Speaker 2: And you're talking mines as well, so a lot of
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  Speaker 2: that some of the best most fertile territory is sowed
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  Speaker 2: with mines and unexploded bomb fragments, et cetera. And you've
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  Speaker 2: got to get all that stuff cleared out before you
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  Speaker 2: can even start to work in and no matter who
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  Speaker 2: controls it. So that's something that's going to be negatively
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  Speaker 2: affected for a long long time to come.
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  Speaker 1: It sure is. But given the gravity of that problem,
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  Speaker 1: I would like to think some you know, international body
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  Speaker 1: of folks, maybe like the Baby Blue Hats, could go
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  Speaker 1: in and start solving that problem on behalf of humanity
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  Speaker 1: given all the unexploded ordinance.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we still have people doing d mining
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  Speaker 2: operations in Visa. There's no question did a lot of
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  Speaker 2: people want to do that, but we've got to have
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  Speaker 2: a security environment to allow it. That's the problem.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, retired Lieutenant Colonel. Find him where you get
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Die. Find him every week
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  Speaker 1: here at eight thirty beginning on Tuesdays here in the
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  Speaker 1: fifty five Case Morning Show. Very informative, very enlightening. I like, yes,
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  Speaker 1: telling it like it is. You don't sugarcoat anything, Daniel.
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  Speaker 1: We all need a healthy dose of that man to
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  Speaker 1: really come to grips with what's going on.
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  Speaker 2: But we got to have a healthy job that's still
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  Speaker 2: that we can get to something that actually can sustain
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  Speaker 2: and be good for the outcome. If you don't do that,
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  Speaker 2: then you're going to be left with whatever's left over.
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  Speaker 2: Stop the Death's year and my goal I think in
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  Speaker 2: the long run, Daniels. Until next week, have a great week,
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  Speaker 2: my friend, my friend, Thanks for your time. Eight forty
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  Speaker 2: one fifty five KRC