Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - FED Chair Powell 🔴LIVE + Stock Market News 02 July 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - FED Chair Powell 🔴LIVE + Stock Market News 02 July 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And welcome to this live stream on a day where Jerome Powell speaks, where we get jobs data out, we get Tesla data out and much, much more, and my mission here is to make you into the best informed investor out there in the next half hour or so, so that you can make some money.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Today.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Let me share my screen with you.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I've got the Jerome Powell thing down here in the corner.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: When they kick off Tardy, europeans will see it, but for now you look at pre-market it's looking a little bit dodgy.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Tesla is up 2.3%, the rest of the market down ever so slightly.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Nothing dramatic, I would say, but still we're down a little bit.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: And we're waiting for job opening day at 10 am.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Fed Chair Powell in about 27 minutes or thereabouts, and we're going to take that 27 minutes to make ourselves insanely well informed.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: So I can actually make this a bit bigger, can't I?
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Because Powell isn't going to be speaking for a little while.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: So I will make this a little bit wider.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: You'll see it popping up when it does.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Powell has announced he has dementia.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Another one Good morning to you all.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: So Tesla numbers are they out yet?
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Are they out yet?
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg, bloomberg, asia.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Even that should do the trick, although we generally prefer the US edition.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Hsbc no, no, no, no.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Has anyone seen the numbers yet?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Tesla is looking optimistic, but let's have a glance, because that actually does really matter.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Well, the whole momentum of the market here.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: And what are we seeing?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: No, we're bracing for delivery numbers.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: We haven't got them yet.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'll let you know as soon as they pop out here somewhere onto the screen.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: So we'll wait for that.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Europe didn't have particularly wonderful numbers today, sort of the oh my God we're electing.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Fascists are all around us.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Everywhere you go, you know that sort of thing.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: That's what Europe's going through at the moment.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: But before we do anything, in literally 11 hours I'm hosting my last live training for quite some time Our June month.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Here I trade a $30,000 teaching portfolio and actually I'll be doing some live trading for you guys in the community today.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: You would have already got the notification on that.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: We ended the month not quite at 7,300, but something a little bit below that, but anyway, we made, I think, something like 18% return on the month of June, following the following system, which I'll teach you I'll teach you what trade to open and when, and I'll teach you how to automate profit taking and risk management.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Three things.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: That's what the premise and the promise is.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So you want to join me for that?
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Then head over to.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Link is down below.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: It's also in the description, which I shall put in the chat here as well felixfriendsorg slash webinar, and that will get you there.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: That'll take you, put it on the screen as well.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: For those of you who don't see the live chat, there it is and that will take you to here where you sign up.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I'll promise to give you my whole system and we're going to have some fun.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: You can needle me with some particularly tough questions that we might not always get to on YouTube, because we don't always go into the deepest depths of trading, do we?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: But let's walk through a few important data points here.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: The largest stocks are now larger than they've ever been.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: We are above the 1930s or so crazy peaks.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: This was 2000.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Should that worry us, I'll tell you why it shouldn't, and you may disagree with me.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Where do we begin?
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Basically, big is beautiful.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: It's kind of as simple as that.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: The big tech stocks become more and more efficient.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: The moats they have, say cloud business.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: It's incredibly expensive to build a cloud business, right, all the servers you got to build, all the chips, you got to buy all the equipment you got to buy, and then you got to get all these customers in.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: So they're in these industries where they are now like dominant players and there are only a handful of them and to compete gets harder and harder so they get more and more profitable and a lot of them are enterprise customers, commercial customers, who are very sticky, and even for us, right, very hard to ditch Microsoft, for example.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Right, incredibly hard, incredibly hard to ditch Google.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: And that's what's happening.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Like I ordered something today of Amazon, like we are using these and these companies get bigger and better and therefore we use them more and therefore they make more profits.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: So I think it's just it's kind of the law of the land, as in the winners take all.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: It's just the way it is right.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Why are the richest people the richest?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Because they keep getting richer every year and, yeah, you could scream inequality and all of that, but they have a skill that you probably don't have and they learned it or were taught it and therefore they're making more money and then they have more money.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: So they make more money.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: With more money, the disparity gets larger and larger, and it's the same thing with companies, and I don't expect that to reverse, I just don't.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, occasionally there'll be a small new company with something amazing and they'll get really big.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Nvidia, for example, was quite small, but Tesla up 4%.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Tesla beats.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Let's have a quick glance at that then.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Are Tesla numbers?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Are they out?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, delivery numbers fell 5% from a year earlier.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: We are expecting that 443,000.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: But it's up 15% from the last quarter and we were expecting slightly less.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: So they've beaten expectations, which were pretty low, by about 5,000 vehicles and Tesla is therefore going woo-hoo-hoo.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I would imagine that's the Tesla minute stock chart there.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Look at that candle 206 to 219.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: It means our Tesla trade is printing money, right.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: If you've been watching my little Tesla videos, there'll be another one coming out later on tonight, so that's definitely good news.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Trading here at 219.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Let's have a quick look where the resistance sits for Tesla and then we go sort of get back to the ordinary program here.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: So I look in trade vision, I click on visualizer and I click on Tesla, and what am I looking for?
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: I'm going to zoom out a little bit.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: First, we're trading here now at 220.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So what do I look for?
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: I look for the biggest green bar on the way up, and there is one at 220, which is pretty significant for this week.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: 25,000 call options, that's resistance.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: And then I also go into the third Friday of the month because that's where most of the market's positioned, and there are another 17,000 there, but it does then move up to 240.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So I would not be surprised if we don't sail through the 220 here today like a warm knife through warm butter.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So the 205 is a thing of the past anyway.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: 220, I'd say 240, here she comes and beyond.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, this is the beginning of a massive bull rally in Tesla.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: That's the way I see it.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: I could well be wrong on that, but at the moment we're doing quite nicely and we might want to start thinking about some trailing stop losses on that trade, because that's going to be printing quite a lot of money today here, which is good.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So wild morning for Tesla investors.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Absolutely good news for Tesla investors all around.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: See if there is any more update on that.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Beaten estimates.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: News didn't load.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: News didn't load.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: News didn't load.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Someone's still typing.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Ai is still typing, but, yeah, we got the numbers out to beat by about 5,000 cars compared to what was expected.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So the stock is up pretty significantly here this morning Four and a half percent up, which is pretty good after 6% up yesterday.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: I was a little concerned with the rally yesterday.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I was thinking have people priced this in and are we ever going to fall on our face when the market does open?
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: So very, very positive news there from Tesla's core business, which is what we want to see.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Right, the Jerome the Powell is meant to be speaking shortly in Europe.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I've got a little screen there in the corner that'll pop up when it does A couple of more things.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So, just on this whole market breadth thing, right.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: So the correlation, like how much are stocks moving together?
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: They're not.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: It's only big tech that's moving up.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Nobody else is going up.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So again, index investors, be prepared, right, the index is going to suck more and more and more.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the S&P 500 tech sector, so just the tech companies versus the S&P 500, these are the returns.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Well, tech has absolutely wiped the floor with the S&P 500.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: And we're now at levels of higher returns than we were at in March 2020, peak of the dot-com bubble but does that mean we're in a bubble?
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: No, it doesn't.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: It just means that the tech companies are making more money.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Very simple Earnings are far, far better, so the stocks massively outperform and are going to become a bigger and bigger part of the market.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Is everybody fully invested?
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: No, as they say in France Money markets what are those?
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Money markets is sort of cash invested in some sort of fixed income thing that pays you an interest rate.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Right, there are close to 3 trillion not Biden trillions real trillions.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: There are a thousand trillionaires in the US.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Whoops, easy, slip off the tongue.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I'm sure that money, some of that money, could flow into the stock market.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: And when would that happen?
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: When interest rates come down and money market funds become a heck of a lot less appealing, and so, therefore, I think there are legs in this rally.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Yes, I'm turning bullish, turning bullish and optimistic on you.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: I know horrible, isn't it?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: And this is from Best Buy CEO, and he says more than 50% of American consumers believe that we are in a recession At some point.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter what the data says.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: It's a question of how secure does the consumer feel, and I think that's also true.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I think we are going to get a recession, especially on the consumer level.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I think we already have it, but it will be acknowledged at some point and that will do what.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: That will mean lower interest rates and if you look at what the market's now predicting for the whole Trump presidency, if that does happen again, it's slightly higher inflation and lower interest rates because you'll introduce tariffs which will cause more inflation, at least initially, tariffs which will cause more inflation, at least initially, and he will cut taxes which will probably lead to a little bit more GDP growth, and he'll probably stand on Jerome Powell's neck until Jerome Powell cuts interest rates.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I know independent and all of that, but you know it's a bit of nonsense, isn't it?
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: When's Powell speaking?
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: 16 minutes, apparently 16 minutes.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: We'll see if they are on time.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Hopefully they are.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: I've got it in the little corner down here.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: This is the live stream from the ECB, the European Central Bank, which is actually entirely German, and so I should be doing that in a German accent.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Now, what are we looking forward to in 2024?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: We're looking forward to higher profits for the big, beautiful, shiny companies that we're invested in.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: So for Q2, expectations are a 9% increase in profits.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Last quarter we expected 1%.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: We beat.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Quarter before 0%, we beat.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: So the question is not do we get 9%?
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: But we need to get at least 10%.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: We need to beat.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: That's the way the market works right.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: If you don't beat expectations, you've failed.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: So some people are saying, because these numbers are getting higher here 9%, 8%, 14% therefore expectations are higher, therefore it's harder to beat.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I'm really with that sort of crowd.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I just think CEOs largely know how to sandbag expectations.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: That's sort of part of the job description.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: So I am optimistic on this round of earnings.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: But what is definitely important, the only thing that actually matters, are the earnings for Nvidia, meta, microsoft, google and Amazon.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: That's all that matters.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: And what we're expecting is a slowdown in growth for everybody.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Everybody will have less, worse margins, except for Amazon, which will be flat.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: That's the expectation.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: All you're going to do is beat them slightly and bops your uncle.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: He put Papa Powell in the corner, absolutely.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Are you live casting his speech?
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: We'll do a little bit of it, for sure, and then I'll go off and I'll do some live trading with my community because that'll be more fun, but hopefully we're going to catch some of what he says.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: He's speaking in Europe, so who knows what he is going to say.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Tesla dark pool trades Philip they did turn bullish at the end of yesterday the big trades, which is the first time we've seen that in a while and then have a look when the market opens.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Philip, in trade vision, that's the easiest thing to do, because there is no pre-market dark pool trading.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Bankers think it's sort of unionized.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: They don't want to work early in the mornings because they're too hung over.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Small caps are getting hammered again and again and again and again.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: The worst first half compared to the S&P in history.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: It's the worst small cap performance underperformance in history.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: At what point do people go?
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Well, let's just freaking, buy small caps because they are so cheap, right?
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: There is, though, the story that the big guys will get bigger and more profitable and it's harder and harder for the little ones to compete, but I think at some point, that gap will just narrow.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: So I definitely like at the moment I'm liking IWO, which is the growth part of the small caps.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: That's definitely something to look at.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Is he there for the Euros?
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Maybe he'll pick some up.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: You mean, he gets a great big envelope or something you know, the Euro has a 500 Euro note, which is about 500 US dollars, which is why it is the preferred currency for