Latest / Financial Survival Network / Interest Rates, Inflation & the 2025 Recession - Eric Hadik #6156

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Interest Rates, Inflation & the 2025 Recession - Eric Hadik #6156 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We have encountered a recession, and the fifteenth time is
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. So and that is seventeen years
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: from the two thousand and eight Great Recession, which was
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: seventeen years from nineteen ninety one, the recession that really
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: dumed George hw Bush's reelection. And you can keep going back.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: That seventeen year cycle has been uncanny in how accurate
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: and consistently it has timed recessions. And so I am
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: looking again for that to be the case in twenty
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: twenty five. So that would certainly fit with interest rates
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: seeing another downside wave and bonds and notes seeing another
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: rally in the first half of next year.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where
• 0:57
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• 1:01
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• 1:14
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• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Ever, And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: I'm your host, Gerry Lutz. Well, we got Eric Haddock
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: back and you find him at inside Track Trading that's
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: I n side Track Trading dot com. And well, we're
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: going to be talking about the forecast for the election
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: as far as indirect financial indicators are concerned. We'll talk
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: about gold record prices, and we'll talk about other commodities,
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: interest rates, the dollar, all that good stuff that I
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: know you've been waiting to hear.
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: Eric, Welcome back. It's great to have you on.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: So you know you told me a few cycles ago
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: that you knew that Trump was going to lose because
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: the dollar was going higher.
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: The dollar has been going lower.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: Can we infer the inverse from.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: This, Eric, Well, one of the correlation that you're referring to,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: and I you should also say thanks for having me back.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: It's great to see here again. But the correlation that
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I have talked about has more to do with the
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: dollar's movement within a particular administration as opposed to leading
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: into it. And so what I had this was even
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: going back into twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and what my
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: work was showing was that the dollar I was expecting
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: it to keep in early twenty seventeen and then sell
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: off for a year or two. And that was leading
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: me to believe the Republican candidate, even before it became
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: confirmed that it was going to be Trump, that the
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Republican would win. And I guess I should even elaborate
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: on the correlation before getting into the competing candidates and parties.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: But what I have seen over last thirty or so
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: years is that on the whole, the dollar tends to
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: trend higher during Democratic administrations and lower during Republican administrations.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: And I'm not even necessarily, you know, trying to make
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: any indictments about that or any political talk about it.
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: It's just that's what I've seen.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: And in one respect, it's not that surprising because you
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: go back to really when this correlation seemed to take hold,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: and in the early to mid eight eighties, when the
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: dollar had been very strong, and then you had, I
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: guess it was eighty five, I believe, the Plaza Accord,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: and even before that you had the administration really starting
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: to talk down the dollar. It was just becoming too
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: much of a burden for its strength and that impact
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: on import, export and other competing currencies in the.
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: Four X and so, you know, it was early.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: On in my trading career, and I can recall seeing
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: James Baker on the television. You know, he'd get on
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: whatever talk show would have him every other day, and
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: he'd be talking down the dollar. And eventually the dollar
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: did really take a hit, went through a sharp sell
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: off from eighty five and eighty seven, started to accomplish
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: what that administration was hoping for. And you've seen the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: underlying mentality that was driving that tends to run in
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: those parties, And so during Republican administrations you often have
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: the dollar trending lower, which helps with exports because you know, the.
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: Country that is.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: A client or a buyer of our goods, if they
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: can get them for a lower amount, once you've done
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: the foreign exchange in there, then it encourages and increases
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: those exports. And conversely, during democratic administrations, you've seen the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: dollar trend on balance higher. So all that to say,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I went back to twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen. I know
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I had that discussion with several people leading into that election.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I think you were one of them, But then also
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: into twenty twenty twenty to twenty one, when I was
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: seeing the opposite. Well, right now, a lot of my
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: work is showing that the dollar should put in a
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: pretty significant bottom in the next month or two and
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: then see some consolidation and potentially some some upward movement,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: although from a much broader perspective, I don't think it's
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: it's heading into any sort of bull market. So if
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: you're going to try and parse the read the tea
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: leaves out of that and parse whatever information you can
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: where that correlations concerned, that would certainly seem to lean
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit in favor of a democratic administration coming up. Well,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: it's already in existence but starting to come up in
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: the future administration. But I don't see a strong enough
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: correlation and or expectation where the dollar is concerned for
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: me to have a very high confidence level in that association.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I think that it's again, it may lean a little
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: bit towards Democrat, but not enough that I would make
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: any convincing conclusions off of that particular correlation.
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: So you're not betting on it in other words.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Right, yeah, and I should just taking it down to
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: the dollar itself, getting beyond the political or election discussion.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I think that the dollar can continues to go through
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: what I believe is a major topping process. And I've
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: discussed this in a generational cycle perspective. When I discussed
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: the forty year cycle of currency war and why I
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: thought that twenty sixteen to twenty twenty one was going
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: to be the culmination of one the latest forty year cycle,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: and the twenty twenty two would begin the next forty
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: year cycle. And in that next cycle, I thought, was
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: when you would see the dollar really start to change
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: its its status, its value. And you've got certainly the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: bricks nations and a lot of other competing nations trying
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: to help usher that in where the dollar loses at
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: least a little bit of its global dominant and that
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: other currencies or basket of currencies begin to play a
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: larger role in international commerce. And so I think that
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the dollar is going through that major transition. Doesn't mean
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: that it collapses at any time in the foreseeable future,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: but it also is able to kind of validate that
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: analysis with an entire technical scenario and set up that
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I've described for my readers over the last six to
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: eight months, and it would be pointless to even try
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: and describe it all verbally kind of laid out.
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: But the dollar added.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Some real strong confirmation to that argument at the end
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: of August, and it looks like it's set up to
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: do the same thing at the end of September, where
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: it's just further confirming a major top. But at the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: same time, those signals are lagging and confirming, so they
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: often get triggered right near an initial bottom. So on
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: an intermediate basis, it wouldn't surprise me to see the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: dollar bottom between now and early November and then enter
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: this consolidation and or rebound that I was just referring
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: to for several months. So I think from a very
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: broad perspective, the dollar is going through this shift and
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: that's going to have long term implications and ramifications on
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: just about everything in our economy, from interest rates to
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: future inflation. But that we're mirroring the culmination of the
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: latest leg down in dollar. Okay, so.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: Not a great and not the best election predictor for sure,
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: but no, no, I would h high level of confidence
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: right now. Okay, all right, So this leads us to
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: interest rates. I think you had said the last time
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: that they were pretty much at intermediate high. Perhaps what
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: are you thinking now that the fence cut fifty bases points.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, as far as as far as bonds and notes
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: which trade inversely to interest rate I had been thinking
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: that we would see a pair of highs in early
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: August and early to mid September, and yes, the fit
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: kind of validated that by cutting rates half points, and
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: that was on.
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: An intermediate base.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Is kind of a buy the rumor sell the fact
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: in bonds and notes where they peaked right as that
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: was occurring.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: So it was.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: The fundamental finally confirming and fulfilling with the technicals, and
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: the price action had already anticipated. And so then the
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: market and the traders kind of sit back and say, Okay,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: that's nice what you did for me yesterday. What are
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: you going to do for me now? And so any
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: any additional upside in bonds and notes is probably out
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit on the on the horizon. But I know,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: you know, today I think it had some more howl speak
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: coming out, and tomorrow you've got their favorite PCE report
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: coming out. So there certainly could be a couple of
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: near term things to move the markets a little bit.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: But I think that bonds and notes are probably going
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: to stay below their the mid September highs for a
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: month or so and see perhaps even a little more
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: downside in early October, but all within a trading range,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: a multi months trading range on what I've described it
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: at from a wave perspective is that I thought the
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: entire move up in bonds from October of twenty twenty three,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: which is when they set their their lowest low of
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: the entire sell off, into August September of twenty twenty four,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: that rally in bonds was what I think is an
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: A wave of a larger magnitude ABC upside correction. And
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: so putting that in to English, you've seen your entire decline,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: a pretty clear five wave decline from middle twenty twenty
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: into October of twenty twenty three. And usually when you
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: have waves that unfold in five waves, that's usually an
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: impulse wave or which means it's in the direction of
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the primary trend, and then you'll see a three wave
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: correction going the opposite way. So in this case, a
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: correction is actually to the upside. And so the first
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: leg of that correction, the A wave, was what we
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: saw from October of last year into August September this year.
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: Now we're in the midst.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Of a likely B wave, and then I expect to
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: see another rally in bonds and notes. So some additional
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: intrastrate cutting out towards the end of this year and
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: into early twenty twenty five. But that also corresponds very
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: closely to several occurrences of a very uncanny seventeen year
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: cycle that I've described that has, among other things, has
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: timed If you go back to the founding of the
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: US and follow this seventeen year cycle forward, thirteen of
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: the fourteen times that that seventeen year cycle has hit
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: we have encountered a recession, and the fifteenth time is
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. So and that is seventeen years
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: from the two thousand and eight Great Recession, which was
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: seventeen years from nineteen ninety one, the recession that really
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: dumed George hw Bush's reelection.
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: And you can keep going back.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: That seventeen year cycle has been uncanny in how accurate
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: and consistently it has timed recessions. And so I am
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: looking again for that to be the case in twenty
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: twenty five. So that would certainly fit with interest rates
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: seeing another downside wave and bonds and notes seeing another
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: rally in the first half of next year.
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: Interesting. Interesting, all right, So gold we've seen nothing but
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: new highs as far as the eye can see. Are
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: we getting to it intermediate high or a longer term high?
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: What are your thoughts?
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: I think that on a near term basis, I've been
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: looking at this late September period for excuse me, for
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: an initial intermediate high. And one of the things that
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: I've been watching pretty closely is more specific price action,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: and silver has been the one that has given me
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: the clearest signs of where and how a peak would
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: be more likely. And ever since the early August low
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: in silver one of my primary trend indicators, and it
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: also really helps pinpoint where corrections are culminating and where
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: a primary trend is taking control again. And so in
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: early August you had one of these signals in silver,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: and it told me to look for a rally back
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: up to it may peek. And so that has been
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: one of the things that I've been that's been governing
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: my overall outlook for gold and silver, And along with that,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: silver has had some very consistent multi month cycle. It
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: helped pinpoint that the mid may peak in silver, while
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: at the same time gold was showing it was diverging
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: and should continue higher. But the next phase of those
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: cycles in silver comes into play in November, so it
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me to see gold and silver set an
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: initial high in here, see some consolidation and pull back,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: but then enter one more rally into late October early November,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: and that kind of goes along with the dollar outlook,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: although they are not always a one hundred and eighty
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: degree inverse correlation, depending on what is driving the moves
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: in each one. So I think that we are on
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: a near term basis, coming near a peak. I've got
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: some price targets that are pretty close to being attained
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: in gold and silver, but there's there remains the potential
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: for another up leg after a after a brief pullback,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: and even there's some key indicators that are are beginning
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: to form where a pullback low and a chance to
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: add to long positions would be the ideal scenario. So
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: from a technic technical perspective, it's all shaping up. But
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: also that also feeds into that much broader generational cycle
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I was talking about with this forty year cycle of
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: currency wars, and I did a series of articles back
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen fifteen sixteen, and then updated them in
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, twenty two. But they were showing me.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: In fact, the title of a few of them was
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: called the Golden Year, and why I thought twenty sixteen
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: would start a whole new bull market in gold, and
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: at the first phase of it would be the culmination
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: of that previous forty year cycle from twenty sixteen to
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, but that that was also kind of
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: a precursor to what you would see in metals and
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: other currency alternatives, including digital bitcoin cryptocurrency during the next
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: phase of that forty year cycle beginning in twenty twenty two.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: So gold fulfilled that surge in twenty sixteen to twenty twenty,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one saw a decent correction, and then it
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: signaled a multi year bull market to start in late
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. So from a broader perspective, we're still
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: in the midst of that, and I still think there
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: is significant more upside over the next one to two years.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: But that is, as I said, the broader over arching
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: outlook for precious metals.
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: Okay, interesting, speaking of cryptocurrencies, what's in your crystal bowl there?
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: I have been thinking that bitcoin and ether would wait
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: until November to set a final corrective low and put
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: that in a little bit of context. Back in first
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: quarter of this year, Bitcoin and ether fulfilled a relatively
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: consistent sixteen month cycle, and they when they've only been
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: doing this for a few years, you don't have quite
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: the history and consistency, but on a limited basis, they
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: had been adhering pretty closely to a sixteen month cycle
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: and overriding that was a four year cycle. And so
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: I was looking for a multi month top in mid
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: marchs up this.
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: Year, and then a future.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: A future peak in the second half of twenty twenty five,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: and in between there I thought that we would see
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: a decent sell off into a pair of cycle lows
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: that I had first in September of twenty twenty four
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: and then in November of twenty twenty four. And at
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: that point is when my price indicators kick in and
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: when I start to look at them, since the cycles
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: provide a backdrop or a foundation, but I'm not going
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: to trade directly off of them. And so we saw
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the salt sell off into September fulfill the lot of
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: downside objectives help some key support levels, and those cryptos
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: have been rebounding since then.
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: But as long as they do.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Not turn their weekly trends up, which could still not
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: happen for at least another two weeks because there's a
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: series of things that have to occur for that for
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: that trend indicator completely reverse. As long as that does
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: not occur, I think that you'll see them head back
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: towards their lows and wait until November to set a
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: more significant bottom.
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: Well, it's just.
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: Around the corner I'm looking today. Bitcoins finally broke sixty
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: five thousand level, it hasn't been at for a while,
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: so is interesting developments there. What else any other markets
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: we should be looking at now?
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Really just mainly the equity markets, which going back into
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: the discussion of that seventeen year cycle, and let me
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: put a little side note here too, your listeners can
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: also go to seventeen year Cycle dot com. That is
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: a secondary website that I've had for about fifteen years,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: and it's also accessible through our main site, Insidetracktrading dot com.
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: But I have.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Archived a collection of articles dating back to even two
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: thousand and seven, two thousand and eight, but many more
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: recent and very current ones describing how the stock market
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: has here so closely to this same seventeen year cycle
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: and it is. It's funny enough that in the years
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: since I've been writing about it, more scientific evidence has
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: come out, some of it just in the last couple
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: of years, that there is a very strong solar storm
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: secondary cycle of roughly seventeen years. The one the cycle
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: that's usually recognized for sun spots is about an eleven
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: point two year cycle. And then, funny enough, several years
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: ago there started to be more research and papers written
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: about a broader great conveyor belt of the sun cycle
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: that was roughly forty years in duration. So you have
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: this forty year cycle, also validated by swings in geo
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: solar magnetivity and ultimately geomagnetivity. And then more recently they've
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: discovered this roughly seventeen year cycle. But even before that,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: there were scientific papers describing how there is a magnetic
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: interplay between the Earth and the Sun that impacts so
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: much of our lives, and that that is a roughly
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: seventeen year cycle. So these things have certainly validated with
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: the markets we're showing, and I suppose if you even
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: want to look at your longest period cicada, which came
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: back into existence in the Midwest this year, they are
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: also a seventeen year cycle, so something drives them underground
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: for seventeen years, and then something at the culination of
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: that seventeen year cycle prompts them to come back above ground.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: But the stock market has adhere to that same cycle.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: And again I wrote about this quite extensively in two
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: thousand and seven. Why I thought that the latter part
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: of two thousand and seven would mark a major top,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: and if it was consistent with past phases, that it
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: would trigger a one to three year thirty five to
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: fifty percent drop in the stock market. And that's exactly
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: what we saw starting in late two thousand and seven.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: And you can go back and look at nineteen ninety,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: nineteen seventy three, nineteen fifty six, nineteen thirty nine, and
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: each time you had very significant peaks and sell offs
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: in the stock market. And the next phase of that
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: seventeen year cycle, as far as a peak is concerned,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: is in late twenty twenty four right now, and the
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: corresponding sell off would be expected to be seen in
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five and possibly stretching into twenty twenty six.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: So it's another very significant application of that cycle. But
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of other technicals and corroborating cycles that
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: are reinforcing the validity or the potential of that cycle
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: coming to fruish fruition. So many of the times you've
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: seen those corresponding peaks occur during July and October of
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: the related seventeen year cycle. And so I was looking
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: for something similar this year, and the Nasdaq one hundred
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: and a lot of your tech stocks peaked in July.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: And if it's anything like two thousand and seven, you
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: get a peak in July, a sell off into August,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: and then a rebound into October. Well, that's exactly what
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: we've seen in the markets. So they're adhering pretty closely
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: to what is a pretty long term, an often obscure
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: cycle that not many people are paying attention to. But
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: there's a reason to be expecting stocks to peak in
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: this somewhere between the late September and early November timeframe.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: But there's even more specific cycles and timing indicators that
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: are honing when that peak is most likely.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: Well, we don't have much time left in the year, right,
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: It's probably going to come sooner rather than later, won't it. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: So I mean we've got the three months left to
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: the year. So after the peak, what happens then we're
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: going to crash decline gradual decline. What do you think?
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: So I'm saying you related to that, you should see
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: a good sell off in twenty twenty five, possibly stretching
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: into twenty twenty six. But as the peak is taking form,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: that's when the market starts to clarify and hone on
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: the outlook on a multi week and multi month basis.
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: So it's as much how a.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Top is formed as it is when it is formed,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: and so the pattern leading into that will give me
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: a lot more specifics to work off of, and I'll
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: be publishing that in my inside Track newsletter and weekly
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: relay updates, But right now it still is in the
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: topping phase, so those specifics haven't completely fleshed out.
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: All right, Well, I think we've got a pretty good
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: overview of the markets, and if you want to get
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: a more intensive one, then you got to go over
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: to inside track Trading dot com. That's I nside track
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: Trading dot com And there's a link in the show
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: Please when you go there, sign up for your free
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: newsletter Eric, always enlightening, always thought provoking, and let's sit
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: back and see what happens next.
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: That was good, Perry, It was great to talk to
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: you again.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Lets this Financial Survival Network
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: than ever,