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New York-Presbyterian CEO: Helping Overcome Vaccine Fears · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, the COVID metrics that
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: we've all been following so closely for about a year
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: are really starting to turn consistently positive in terms of hospitalizations.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I see you beds um as well as inoculations. Let's
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: get the latest uh here in New York City with
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  Speaker 1: Dr Stephen core When he is the President and chief
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: executive Officer of New York Presbyterian Hospital joining us on
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the phone. Dr Corwen, thanks to what for joining us here,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: give us the on the ground, boots on the ground
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  Speaker 1: kind of view from the New York Presbyterian Hospital. What
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: do you and your team seeing right now as it
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: relates to the pandemic and as it relates to vaccinations. Well,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: in terms of the pandemic, we've not really seen it
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: of hit. It's it's it's peak on this second surge
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: here in New York and and come on its way down.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: So at the peak we had about two thousand, six
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  Speaker 1: hundred patients within our system. We were overwhelmed. Uh we're
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: at about nine hundred and sixty patients now, as you
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  Speaker 1: mentioned less in the I se you a lower mortality rate,
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  Speaker 1: but it's still pretty serious and we've yet to seen
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  Speaker 1: the see the effects of the more contagious variants, whether
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: it's South African or or the England the British variant,
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  Speaker 1: and and we're anxiously awaiting that. Plus you we've had
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: eleven plus months of this and so uh, staff are stretched.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Uh you know, it's it's been a long haul. So
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  Speaker 1: I'm very appreciative of what our front line staff has
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: been through and what they're doing now. The biggest issue
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: for us is staffing because in the pandemic in March
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  Speaker 1: April May, we were able to pull from other parts
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: of the country. That's not the case now. So not
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  Speaker 1: as bad as it was before, still serious, and we're
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: hoping with the vaccinations and mass vaccination we can we
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: can see our way through in in the spring into
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  Speaker 1: the early summer. In terms of vaccinations, we've vaccinated all
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: of our frontline employees. UH. We've overcome a lot of
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  Speaker 1: vaccine hesitancy. UH. And that requires a lot of education,
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  Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of one on one discussions. UH.
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  Speaker 1: And we saw that at the site that we put
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  Speaker 1: in place at the Armory up in Washington Heights. Initially
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  Speaker 1: of the vaccinations were coming from the immediate community central
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  Speaker 1: North car along Washington Heights Inwood South Bronx. Now that's
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  Speaker 1: up to and we've worked with community based organizations, faith
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  Speaker 1: based organizations, made appointments by phone, made sure that we
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  Speaker 1: had translators. You know, if you think about it, UM,
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  Speaker 1: typically if you're trying to overcome vaccine hesitancy, UH, you know,
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  Speaker 1: an online appointment system tends to favor uh people who
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  Speaker 1: are are digitally proficient and so on. So we had
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  Speaker 1: to change our strategy to make sure that we were
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  Speaker 1: dealing with the communities of color and underserved communities. These
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  Speaker 1: are phenomenal discoveries. Doctors, thank you for coming on and
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  Speaker 1: telling us all of this. Just on the people that
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  Speaker 1: are coming into the hospitals. Are the symptoms very similar
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  Speaker 1: to what we saw back in March or April or
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  Speaker 1: have they changed a little bit? Hows this disease changed
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  Speaker 1: how it affects people. Yeah, the symptoms are very similar.
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  Speaker 1: We're better at treating it, uh, the use of steroids,
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  Speaker 1: the use of RAMD severe, the use of the monoclonal
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  Speaker 1: antibodies if people are not too sick and before they
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  Speaker 1: come into the hospital. So the mortality rate in the
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  Speaker 1: spring if you got admitted to the hospital was to zero. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: Now that mortality rate is about five UM. Still horrendous,
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  Speaker 1: but much less, and a lot of that is due
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  Speaker 1: to better supportive care. Uh. It's hard to think though
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  Speaker 1: that it's it's UM. It's it's less contagious or less virulent.
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  Speaker 1: I will say that with masking and social distancing, the
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  Speaker 1: possibility is that the viral loads that patients have when
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  Speaker 1: they come in maybe far less than what we saw
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  Speaker 1: in the spring. But it's still really too uh speculative
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  Speaker 1: on my part to say that that's the definitive reason.
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  Speaker 1: Certainly we're seeing it in younger people. They tend to
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  Speaker 1: do better uh than the frail elderly, so that also
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  Speaker 1: plays into it. So, doctor, as we get more and
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  Speaker 1: more vaccinations available to the marketplace, talk to us about
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  Speaker 1: some of those UM concerns that you get from UH,
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  Speaker 1: folks that are a reticent about taking the vaccine. What
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  Speaker 1: are some of the key drivers there? What do you
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  Speaker 1: have to overcome because the the science seems pretty clear. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I think there are a few things. First of all,
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  Speaker 1: if if you're a person of color, uh, like it
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  Speaker 1: or not. There's been a long history of experimentation on
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  Speaker 1: people of color, dating way way back, So that's one issue.
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  Speaker 1: The second issue is social media and a lot of
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  Speaker 1: the misinformation out there, whether it's anti vaxers or whether
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  Speaker 1: it's people that basically saying that COVID is a hoax
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  Speaker 1: and and it's not really that bad. Uh. The third
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  Speaker 1: thing is that a lot of people say, you know,
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  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I want to take it because it
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  Speaker 1: was developed too fast. And you've got to remind people
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  Speaker 1: that the Messenger RNA platform, for example, has been in
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  Speaker 1: development for well over a decade, that the other platforms
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  Speaker 1: that are being used are also well established, uh, And
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  Speaker 1: that by purchasing that, by pre purchasing doses, and by
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  Speaker 1: compressing the time frame of the various clinical trials and
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  Speaker 1: supporting those, it enabled something that would take a few
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  Speaker 1: years to take a year. And I think it's an
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  Speaker 1: enormous scientific achievement, but you've got to overcome that um
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  Speaker 1: for people to say, well, I'm not sure I want
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  Speaker 1: to take it because it was rushed into development. So
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  Speaker 1: you've really got to go through that. And I think
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  Speaker 1: it's important to point out that it's not live, right,
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  Speaker 1: You're not injecting coronavirus into people like some other vaccines work.
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  Speaker 1: This is not that a very good point. I'm sorry
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  Speaker 1: that I didn't mention it, so thank you for bringing
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  Speaker 1: it up. The message. Your RNA vaccine is not live,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: so and it's not even d n A. The um
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  Speaker 1: inactivated viruses are just vectors, so you can't get coronavirus
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: from the vaccines. Uh. The NOVA vaccine is actually novavacx
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  Speaker 1: vaccine is actually just a recombinant protein. So the notion
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: that you can get coronavirus from it also needs to
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: be dispelled. You can't. Now, if you have an immune
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: reaction to it, UM that's a positive sign. And some
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: people get uh, mild fever, headaches, muscle eggs, etcetera. It's
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  Speaker 1: actually a good thing. It shows you that your immune
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  Speaker 1: system is working. Many people, of course, have no side
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  Speaker 1: effects whatsoever from either The first of the second dose. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: if it's the visor of the moderna vaccine. I'm very
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: encouraged by the Johnson and Johnson vaccine because it's one dose,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: it doesn't have to be frozen. And you know, as
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: you've heard from Dr Fauci and others, this is a
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  Speaker 1: worldwide problem. We have to stop the spread worldwide, otherwise
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  Speaker 1: more and more of these variants will come out, and
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  Speaker 1: inevitably these variants will self select to be more virulent
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  Speaker 1: and problematic for us. So we've got to get a
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  Speaker 1: worldwide effort in place. And I'm very thankful that the
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  Speaker 1: US government has recognized that and in the Biden administration
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  Speaker 1: they are participating in the worldwide effort. Where a time, doctor,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: but in ten seconds, can you tell us do you
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: have enough ppemail? Has that problem been solved? It has
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: been more than enough. So everyone should rest assured that
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: if you if you need to come into the hospital,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: we're a okay. That is just fantastic at least a
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: little bit of good news. In fact, a lot of
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: good news in that interview. So doctor, thank you very
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  Speaker 1: very much for giving us your time. Dr Stephen Corwin
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  Speaker 1: is New York Presbyterian President and CEO joining us this
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  Speaker 1: morning and Paul I think a lot to take away
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  Speaker 1: from there, including that the vaccines are working in the
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  Speaker 1: many communities that would have been hesitant have embraced this
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  Speaker 1: thanks to the good work of Dr Corbyn and his staff. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: that's exactly what I took away. Some hard work to
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: be done here, but it's it's well worth it. The
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: good people a Crane Shares have done something very interesting.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: They have brought out a product that is going to
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  Speaker 1: give US investors a chance to take part in Shanghai's
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  Speaker 1: Nasdack style tech board. So let's bring in Brendan Hern,
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  Speaker 1: who's chief investment officer of Crane Cherries to tell us more. Brendan,
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  Speaker 1: what is this product? Hey, good morning Bunny. Um. So,
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  Speaker 1: we recently recently listed k Star the Crane Share Shanghai
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Stock Exchange Star fifty index, which provides access to a
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: unique board within the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It's really a
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: growth innovation, this science and technology boards. So these are
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: very growth geared companies that historically have really not been
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  Speaker 1: accessible to US investors. So we're obviously very excited to
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  Speaker 1: bring the first starboard et F outside of China to
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: investors here in the United States. So, Brendan, how is
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  Speaker 1: this Star fifty index. How's it different from the M
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: S c I China A Index. So a great question, Paul.
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  Speaker 1: You know that China A is really large and mid
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: cap stocks listed on the main board of both the
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  Speaker 1: Shanghai and shen Zen stock exchanges. In order to list
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: on the main board of those two exchanges, you have
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: to be profitable. So so they created two years ago
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: this starboard which there is no profitability requirement, and the
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: idea is to give these growth innovative companies access to
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: capital via the I P O process, So so no
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: profitability requirement, much more growth geared companies for that reason, right,
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  Speaker 1: So we should be aware of that. Brendan, remind me,
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  Speaker 1: wasn't a huge amount of volasociation? Isn't there generally a
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  Speaker 1: huge amount of volasosi in these types of stocks in China?
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  Speaker 1: I mean, in general, emerging market equities have a higher
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: standard deviation than say the S and P five hundred
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: and certainly you know, yes, this is a concentration of
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: fifty securities. So so it's it's something that one of
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: the risks investors should be aware of, Uh, is that
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: this is going to be more volatile than say, you
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: know k b A is our m STI China A
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: almost five hundred stocks. This is a tenth of that.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: And and just being within emerging markets that that you
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: know that volatility comes comes with it. So give us
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: a sense, Brennan, kind of the Starboard, you know, how
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: when was it formed? How big is it does a trade? Well,
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: so launched back in this index was first created. So
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: there were up to over two hundred securities on the
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Starboard today represented of all mainland I p o s.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Last year the companies of ray ease uhty billion. But
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: so this this market is big, you know, market cap
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: is up to almost three d billion, over two hundred
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: million shares trading daily. Of the underlying securities, can you
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: give us an idea of what are the securities that
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: take precedence in it? Are they you know equally uh
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: dispersed through throughout the index? Well, we know semiconductors is
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: a big push in China today. So semiconductors is just
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: you know, basically a third of of the k star
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: et F. But you have software biotech, um you know,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: really again these are the kind of growth if you
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: think about all all of the kind of innovative catch
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: terms that get thrown out there. If it's a I
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: big data again, because these are growth companies, they need
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: access to capital to grow their businesses. Again very very
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: skewed to these tech oriented semi software biotechnology. So is
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: this starboard is it kind of a now I guess
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit to the NASTAC one D or what's
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: kind of the analogy here is that the Russell two thousand.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Just to get you know, our listeners a sense of
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: kind of what this feels like this board, Yeah, I definitely, Paul.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: I think you know, if you have investors here in
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the US are familiar with you know, q q Q
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: NASTAC one hundred K star really represents you know, the
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: largest names within this tech board. And you know, if
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: you go back I always think about NASDAC in the
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: nineties seventies was really founded on providing a cheaper, easier
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: way for growth and technology companies in the United States
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: to access capital. That the NISY back back then was
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: really more large cap companies, high listing standards and and
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: and you know NASA kind of carved out, you know,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: it's grown to be in a tremendous business, very similar
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: situation analogists to the Star fifty board. How do investors
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: in this need to consider the PDOC as a potential
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: player for their companies? So these companies are tend not
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: to be financial company, So we we if we think
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: about some of the issues and group ran into and
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: having recently recently to be reclassified as a financial holding company,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: these companies are not in the financial sector, very unlikely
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: to fall under the purview of the PBOC. So the
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: starboard um Brendan formed in nineteen how's the performance been
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: since then? So it's it's it's done well, you know,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: you know, it's uh, let me just pull this up here.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: You're just for Bloomberg terminal users, which I'm I'm definitely
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: one of. I'm a big fan of U. Uh, you know,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: can't can't you know, crane chairs. We can't run our
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: business without without our Bloomberg terminal. So I'm just gonna
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: pull this up here using the great CEO MP function,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: which I know users are very familiar with. So since inception, uh,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: this starboard is up uh just just about just over
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: fifty one per cent now relative to those MidCap and
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: large caps that we hold within k b A, those
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: securities over the same time period are lagging just slightly
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: so so so k Star from a historical performance has
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: been out performing k b A. But again that's that's
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: up fifty over the over the last thirteen months or uh,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: you know, without without question obviously the v shaped recovery
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: in China. We're seeing a very strong domestic performance there. Hey, Brandon,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate that. As
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: always kind of another way for investors to play some
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: of the faster growing companies in China. Brenda A. Hearn,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: chief investment officer of Crane Shares based in New York City,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: joining us on the phone. So Vanni again just another
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: opportunity for another vehicle, I guess for investors to play
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: some of these fast growing companies coming out of China. Yes,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: definitely you want to be aware of what you're doing
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: with this one. But it does seem like a very
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: very interesting one of the Crane chairs s s start
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: market of fifty index e t f T at k
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: st R. Well a little gentleman Kins did all last week,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: but really only by thirty three thousand, we still saw
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: seven hundred and seventy nine thousand initial jobless claims in
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: the last week of January, and continuing claims are still
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: at four point five nine million, So yes, the declines,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: but really we should put this into perspective. So let's
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: bring in Elena Shootiva, whose senior US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Elena,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: how should we read the fact that seven seventy nine
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: thousand people made first time times for unemployment insurance last week?
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: So two things here I would really like to highlight.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: So first of all, of course, the declining jobless claims
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: is an encouraging signal, hinting at a possible inflection point.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: So uh, you know, three weeks in a row of
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: declines come at some states that gradually loosening restrictions, so
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: that might be a positive sign. On the other hand,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: we are in a period of really high seasonal volatility.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: So we had a holiday season when usually there are
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of extra jobs, which um, you know, companies
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: fireworkers in the consecutive months, So in januaryly see a
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: lot of job loads is usually and I see the
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: most factors just simply uh, it's very difficult to make
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: adjustments at this point when all the regular season all
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: that and study stories, So maybe there's just not that
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: mean many people that companies are firing right now, that
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: maybe screwing the numbers to lower side. But at the
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: same time, as as you said, there's still a lot
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: of unemployed people and unfortunately the length of unemployment is
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: rising rapidly. So tomorrow we're gonna get another jobs report
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: for the months of January. We expect a slightly negative reading.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: But the question is how we are going to proceed
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: from here. So, as we know, there are a lot
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: of vulnerable industries still and a lot of people in
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: leisure hospitality is still suffering they cannot go back to work.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: But on the other hand, we have seen a lot
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: of other industries that rempt up hiring slightly, So that
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: is a positive sign and that that what we will
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: be focusing on in tomorrow's report. All right, Elena, as
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: we think about tomorrow's report, UM, you know, we think
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: about some of those job losses, and you mentioned leisure,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: um entertainment, some of those presumably a lot of those
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: are going to come back when as the economy reopens
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: throughout this year. What's the concern as for more structural unemployment? UM,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: that maybe companies kind of restructured during the pandemic that
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: in reality and when we do reopen that a lot
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: of those folks won't be hired back. So that's that's
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: a very interesting question indeed, because yes, I do believe
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: that a lot of service jobs will get back to
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: as we have the pandemic under control. We cannot completely defeated,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: probably in the near term, but at least we're gonna
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: get it under control, and that's when the services spending,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of service jobs will come back. But um,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: at the same time, UH, you know, a lot of
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: industries adapted to operating under new circumstances with a small
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: amount of people, and UH that will probably weigh on
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: uh further growth in uh in in jobs. UH. Another
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: interesting point, and that is something that that the set
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: is really concerned about and a lot of economies talk
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: about that too, is that a lot of people left
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: the label for it's just simply stopped looking for a
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: job for various reasons. Right that they're discouraged, they will
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: find a job, or UH, they stay home for family
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: reasons to watch the kids do their homework remotely, and
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: and so on and so forth. So this is a
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: big chunk of UH personal income that will be lost
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: going forward, and UH it will take a lot of
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: time to restore this if if we can restore it.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: So if you look at the previous business cycle, it
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: took a decade to push the participation rate to the
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: heights that we saw. So I think that we should
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: also consider these things when we talk about unemployment and jobs.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: We'll have a new labor secretary, former of Boston. What
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: can he do as labor secretary to change how the
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: labor market looks over the next couple of years. Well,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: I am an economists and probably not in the right
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: place to give advice to UH people from administration, but
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: I think it's just, you know, we need to make
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: sure that people who need help, who need unemployment insurance
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: get it, and for that really needs good statistics. We
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: need to make sure the system I in place so
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: that they have access to proper um you know, payments
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: and stuff a fast and inside data, so that would help,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: I guess Elena, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: As always, on those job numbers today and getting ready
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: for jobs day tomorrow. Elena Shuteva, senior US economists for
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics joining us on the phone, and again Vanni,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: the job's claims numbers today a good trend. Yeah, but boy,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: that's a high number by historical norms. Yeah. I'm hanging
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: my heart on the fact that Lena is that it
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: might be a turning point, because if that is actually
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: the case, then we can take more you know, joy
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: out of these numbers than at first glance, because I
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: suppose you have to have a turning point before you
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: have a major improvement, right Paul, Yeah, absolutely, And it
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: kind of just puts the pressure on once again our
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: friends in Washington, d C. For fiscal stimulus. As the negotiations,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: uh there continue between the Democrats and Republicans. Hopefully we'll
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: get some breakthrough soon. Now let's turn into Eric Baltunis,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: who senior et F analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. We have
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: a weekly conversation with Eric, and Eric, we want to
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: ask you about the client exodus from Janice Funds today.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously the Reddit trade in a moment, but
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: why is Jonas Henderson suddenly losing major clients? Yeah, I
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: mean it's a big one of the ownership mostfully the stock.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: At least last I checked with down six percent overall
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: the stock has It's okay, it's up over the past
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: five years, although that is underperforming it's benchmark of mid
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: caps um. But you've got worse, you know, Franklin Templeton
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: or Ben Franklin bend is the ticker is down in
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: that time period, but Black rocks up, which speaks to
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the big theme here, which is if you are selling
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: sort of high cost active mutual funds and that's your
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: main um, you know, source of revenue um, your organic
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: growth outlook is horrible. The flows are coming out of
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: their Janas is seen outflows all told, active mutual funds
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: have seen about over five hundred billion dollars in outflows
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: last year. That said, the assets are at all time
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: highs because the market continues to give good asset growth
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: and it's enough to offset the outflows. So I just look,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Janice assets are four billions. That is a record for them.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: So the problem is it's not organic, it's um you know,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: mirage ish if you will, And that's probably what this
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: this clim The writing is on the wall, and I
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: think that's probably what the owner, the person the company
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: selling is looking at and thinking, well, it's fine now,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: but I want to look elsewhere for the future. Yeah, Eric,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: when I was on the sell side, you know, two
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: of the biggest smartest accounts that you have to have
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a good relationship with on the buy side where Janice
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: Funds out of Denver, some of the smartest growth investors,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: March Cap growth investors. And then the Henderson Funds in London,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: one of the leading accounts in London. These two get together,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: yet they still can't stem the tide. It's just the
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: US because all a lot of assets are going into
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: your world, the world of e t f s. It's
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: that it's really the vanguard effect. Um. You know. In
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: two thousand and eight in particular, I think a lot
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: of people were just made that their active mutual fund
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: didn't do any better than the market and they're paying
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: these days. Then you had report after report from SMP
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: versus index versus active that show active cannot perform. And
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: then the Internet really hit and if you chart the
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Internet growth with the rise of passive, it's almost perfectly correlated.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: So his information got out, blogs are posted and people
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: were like, you know what, this isn't really working for me.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: So they started going to cheap passive and so You've
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: seen trillions flow over there and trillions come out of Active.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: It's really a game changer. The other thing we are
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: seeing though is Jannis, as you said, was a big deal.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: In fact, in the nineties they were taking in like
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: all the flows, they were kind of a vanguard of
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: their day, as you pointed out, Um, but now what
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: you have is arc Is sort of doing that. That's
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: a fun company that's active, high active share. So it's
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: not over for Active, it's just new ones are being born.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: And I think the poor um I use the word barbell,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: most of the money is going to cheap beta or
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: shiny objects, and a lot of what Janis has is
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: sort of in the middle. It's kind of high cost
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: but not too different than the benchmark. That's the no
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: man's land right now. And of course we should mention,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: you know, Nelson Peltz's involvement in all of this as well.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: There was an Active's shareholder in triumphun Management with a
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: nine stake and Jonas Henderson, so he would have had
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: something to do with this too. Absolutely, yes, absolutely, I
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: think um. You know, Jannis is one of those companies
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: that they have tried to come out with some ETF.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: They actually acquired a Velocity Shares, which was the maker
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: of t VX. That was a weird acquisition. But they
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: do have some talented people over there. Uh, they have
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: a couple of ets. They're doing okay um, but it's
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: going to be rough. I think in the next ten years.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: What they need to really worry about those a bear market.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: As long as the market keeps giving, all of this
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: can just kick the can down the road. The organic
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: problem will just keep put off and put off. But
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: in the bear market it could get ugly and March alone,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: that's one month we had a little sample of this
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: active mutual fund saw three hundred and fifty billion in
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: outflows in a month. You can imagine if you if
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: you've got a year of that, it could get really bad.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: So we tell active and those kind of managers that
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: they should fear a bear market almost worse than the
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: Vanguard effect, although the Vanguard effect is somewhat like termites
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: eating away at the inside of their growth. When the
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: bear market comes, the house will fall down, I think
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: pretty easily. That's yeah, it's yeah, it is just a
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: tough time for this business. But again, there are there
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: are reforms of active that are rising. Uh, sorry, we
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: will we look at those. Eric, thanks so much for
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: joining us. You always help us put it into perspective.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Eric Outunist, Senior et F analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
• 26:04
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• 26:08
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• 26:12
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• 26:14
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• 26:17
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