Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The UNDERCOVER Election: Party ID Goes ROGUE for the Midterms

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The UNDERCOVER Election: Party ID Goes ROGUE for the Midterms · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Democrats may have found a new way to win the midterms.
• 0:04
  Stop running as Democrats.
• 0:05
  Ah yes,
• 0:06
  the undercover midterms are here and the markets may not be ready for it.
• 0:11
  Somebody leaked Ken Paxton's private audio.
• 0:14
  Is this a big scandal?
• 0:15
  Well,
• 0:16
  the question is whether Texas voters care,
• 0:18
  uh,
• 0:18
  because the Senate market might be starting to.
• 0:20
  And then I'm heading to Florida to see if
• 0:22
  I can personally destroy a candidate's political career.
• 0:25
  Candidate Countdown is back for another episode.
• 0:28
  All of that and more coming up on tonight's
• 0:30
  Predictable with Stu.
• 0:46
  All right,
• 0:47
  here we go.
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  We have uh a great show for you tonight on Predictable with Stu.
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  free resource all the time,
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  predictable101.com.
• 1:31
  We have 33 days until
• 1:32
  the midterm elections are here.
• 1:35
  33 days and of course early voting is already happening in what is it 5 states now
• 1:40
  so
• 1:41
  I mean the election really has already started technically
• 1:44
  uh more to come as well.
• 1:45
  Maine,
• 1:46
  I don't know if you noticed Maine kind of a big key
• 1:49
  to this election.
• 1:50
  Uh,
• 1:50
  with the Susan Collins Senate race,
• 1:52
  uh,
• 1:53
  October 4th,
• 1:53
  which is what this weekend,
• 1:54
  right?
• 1:54
  That's Sunday.
• 1:55
  That's Sunday.
• 1:56
  I don't know.
• 1:57
  It's Sunday,
• 1:57
  I think.
• 1:58
  Anyway,
• 1:58
  Maine starts.
• 1:59
  We got
• 2:00
  California,
• 2:00
  Montana,
• 2:00
  and Nebraska after that.
• 2:02
  Both Montana and Nebraska have,
• 2:03
  I mean,
• 2:03
  Nebraska for sure has an interesting race.
• 2:05
  Montana is somewhat interesting as well,
• 2:07
  so
• 2:07
  we'll get into that,
• 2:08
  uh,
• 2:08
  as we get into the,
• 2:09
  uh,
• 2:10
  coming
• 2:10
  days.
• 2:12
  We have a,
• 2:13
  I don't know,
• 2:13
  I guess an unintentional theme.
• 2:15
  Unintentional theme.
• 2:16
  We planned the show out so well,
• 2:18
  we even
• 2:19
  occasionally recognize
• 2:21
  in retrospect that we had a theme for the week.
• 2:23
  That's what we do here.
• 2:25
  And the unintentional theme of the week
• 2:27
  was different tactics being used,
• 2:30
  typically by Democrats in this particular election.
• 2:33
  To try to
• 2:35
  win in places they can't normally win.
• 2:37
  Now,
• 2:38
  again,
• 2:39
  I go back and forth on this because I don't like some of these tactics.
• 2:41
  Some of these tactics I find to be,
• 2:43
  uh,
• 2:43
  quite,
• 2:44
  um,
• 2:45
  dishonest
• 2:46
  and,
• 2:46
  uh,
• 2:47
  you know,
• 2:48
  basically giving you a,
• 2:49
  uh,
• 2:50
  with a target idea of fooling voters into voting for them.
• 2:54
  So I don't like that part of it.
• 2:55
  And the other part of me says,
• 2:56
  well,
• 2:57
  you know,
• 2:57
  Republicans.
• 2:58
  Look,
• 2:59
  they should be thinking about how to implement tactics that will make
• 3:02
  them do well in states where they don't normally win as well.
• 3:06
  I'd,
• 3:06
  I'd ideally like them not to be completely dishonest,
• 3:09
  frankly.
• 3:12
  You know,
• 3:12
  it's the,
• 3:13
  maybe that's just me,
• 3:14
  I'm a little old school in that way,
• 3:15
  but like,
• 3:17
  these type of tactics are somewhat effective
• 3:20
  and are moving particular races.
• 3:22
  And we started out with the week talking about
• 3:25
  the fake independence,
• 3:27
  right?
• 3:27
  They are,
• 3:27
  they're trying this in 4 different states.
• 3:30
  You have,
• 3:31
  um,
• 3:31
  South Dakota,
• 3:33
  Idaho,
• 3:34
  Nebraska.
• 3:35
  Uh,
• 3:36
  and,
• 3:36
  uh,
• 3:37
  the four states,
• 3:37
  Montana,
• 3:38
  did I say Montana?
• 3:38
  I don't know.
• 3:39
  Whatever four states they are,
• 3:40
  uh,
• 3:41
  they are running basically no Democrats.
• 3:43
  OK,
• 3:43
  they're saying
• 3:44
  we're just gonna run an independent and we want you,
• 3:47
  all of our Democratic voters to vote for the independent
• 3:49
  to beat the Republican.
• 3:51
  In many cases,
• 3:52
  they're even pulling the Democratic candidate
• 3:54
  off the ballot completely.
• 3:55
  They don't even have a candidate in the Senate race.
• 3:57
  So they're trying that in 4 states.
• 3:59
  You have a,
• 3:59
  a minor tactic
• 4:01
  that they're using in Alaska,
• 4:02
  which is putting a guy with the same name.
• 4:04
  Uh,
• 4:05
  on
• 4:06
  The ballot as the Republican,
• 4:07
  so hopefully some of the votes instead of going to that Republican will instead go to
• 4:12
  the uh the
• 4:14
  the fake Dan Sullivan
• 4:16
  in Alaska.
• 4:17
  So that's another tactic to try.
• 4:18
  Another one is taking people
• 4:21
  who are
• 4:23
  former Republicans
• 4:24
  and trying to run them
• 4:26
  as uh
• 4:28
  kind of moderate candidates.
• 4:30
  And saying,
• 4:31
  look,
• 4:32
  sure,
• 4:32
  we don't like all those crazy
• 4:33
  Democrats,
• 4:34
  and we're not AOC type Democrats.
• 4:36
  These are
• 4:36
  I mean this guy used to be a Republican.
• 4:38
  Now this is a pretty standard tactic.
• 4:40
  They've tried this over the years.
• 4:43
  Limited success with it.
• 4:44
  They are trying it,
• 4:45
  uh,
• 4:46
  you know,
• 4:46
  in,
• 4:46
  in some level,
• 4:47
  you could argue they're trying it in Maine.
• 4:48
  Troy Jackson.
• 4:50
  Used to be a Republican a very long time ago,
• 4:52
  was an independent for a while now,
• 4:54
  really a Bernie Sanders Democrat and outspoken about that.
• 4:57
  So I don't really count that one,
• 4:58
  frankly.
• 4:59
  Uh,
• 4:59
  also,
• 5:00
  they tried to,
• 5:01
  uh,
• 5:02
  you know,
• 5:02
  they were attempting to run a,
• 5:03
  a groper,
• 5:04
  uh,
• 5:05
  before that.
• 5:06
  So,
• 5:06
  uh,
• 5:06
  it wasn't their plan to run Troy Jackson.
• 5:08
  Uh,
• 5:09
  so he's there,
• 5:09
  but I don't really count him.
• 5:11
  Florida,
• 5:12
  I do count,
• 5:12
  uh,
• 5:13
  David Jolly is there.
• 5:14
  He's the,
• 5:15
  uh,
• 5:15
  Republican,
• 5:16
  uh,
• 5:16
  or Democratic candidate,
• 5:17
  used to be a Republican.
• 5:19
  And now is running in Florida and trying to say,
• 5:22
  hey,
• 5:23
  you know,
• 5:23
  I know you guys won't vote for Democrats anymore,
• 5:25
  but you should vote for me because
• 5:26
  I used to be a Republican and I'm moderate and
• 5:28
  you can trust me and Byron Donalds is bad.
• 5:30
  We talked,
• 5:31
  we're gonna talk a little bit about that race here coming up in,
• 5:33
  in,
• 5:33
  in a minute.
• 5:34
  Um,
• 5:34
  secondarily,
• 5:35
  uh,
• 5:35
  the race in Kansas is a really big example of this,
• 5:38
  maybe the most
• 5:39
  blatant one.
• 5:41
  Arguably the most blatant one.
• 5:43
  This is,
• 5:43
  uh,
• 5:44
  and,
• 5:44
  and to tell you where we are
• 5:47
  in this race,
• 5:48
  the fact that I'm doing a segment
• 5:50
  less than 5 weeks before the election about Kansas.
• 5:54
  Tells you where the climate is right now.
• 5:57
  These are the stretch goals for Democrats.
• 6:00
  If they're,
• 6:01
  if we're talking about Kansas right now,
• 6:03
  they're in a good spot.
• 6:04
  Kansas should be easy.
• 6:06
  In fact,
• 6:06
  it's so easy
• 6:08
  that no Democrat has won there in over 90 years in the Senate.
• 6:12
  Now,
• 6:12
  occasionally we do have Democratic governors,
• 6:15
  uh,
• 6:15
  that,
• 6:15
  uh,
• 6:15
  are in,
• 6:16
  uh,
• 6:16
  Kansas,
• 6:17
  that's happening,
• 6:17
  and it has happened,
• 6:19
  but.
• 6:20
  Senate,
• 6:21
  really there's no
• 6:22
  way a Democrat can win in Kansas.
• 6:24
  However,
• 6:25
  that's not what the polling is telling us right now.
• 6:27
  Republican turned Democrat
• 6:28
  aims to flip Kansas Senate seat blue for the first time in over 90
• 6:33
  years.
• 6:34
  This race is one that I didn't think I'd be talking about,
• 6:36
  frankly,
• 6:37
  at this point.
• 6:39
  Senator Roger Marshall is the guy who is the incumbent.
• 6:42
  He is going for,
• 6:43
  uh,
• 6:43
  um,
• 6:44
  uh,
• 6:44
  to try to,
• 6:45
  I think it's,
• 6:45
  would it be his 2nd term,
• 6:46
  I believe,
• 6:47
  uh,
• 6:47
  and he was trying to,
• 6:49
  uh,
• 6:49
  extend this 90-year run of Republican senators
• 6:52
  in the state of Kansas.
• 6:54
  His opponent is a guy named,
• 6:55
  uh,
• 6:56
  Adam Hamilton.
• 6:57
  Hamilton is a,
• 6:58
  um,
• 6:59
  a reverend.
• 7:01
  Sort of think of him sort of like a,
• 7:02
  uh,
• 7:03
  you know,
• 7:03
  um,
• 7:04
  a woke mega church
• 7:06
  sort of pastor,
• 7:07
  right?
• 7:08
  He,
• 7:08
  you know,
• 7:08
  it's a very big church,
• 7:10
  got a lot of followers to it,
• 7:12
  you know,
• 7:12
  it's a type of church that does a lot of,
• 7:13
  you know,
• 7:14
  uh,
• 7:14
  sermons about climate change and
• 7:16
  diversity and,
• 7:18
  and all these things.
• 7:19
  They had a,
• 7:19
  uh,
• 7:20
  Uh,
• 7:20
  uh,
• 7:20
  you know,
• 7:21
  like some LGBT
• 7:23
  thing in the church at one point,
• 7:25
  and that's been one of the big things that Marshall's tried to highlight,
• 7:27
  right?
• 7:28
  Like,
• 7:28
  look at all these
• 7:29
  crazy,
• 7:29
  this is this guy Jeremiah Wright or what?
• 7:31
  Like,
• 7:31
  who is this guy?
• 7:32
  Um,
• 7:33
  that is what he's tried to do.
• 7:35
  And it's interesting because
• 7:37
  really a lot of the stuff that Republicans are doing in these races.
• 7:41
  Are focused on these cultural sort of approaches to say,
• 7:45
  hey,
• 7:45
  I mean it's happening certainly in Texas we're gonna
• 7:47
  go into that race in a little while as well
• 7:49
  where it's every ad about James Tallarico are
• 7:52
  the things that he said about God being non-binary
• 7:55
  and uh you know there are 6 genders
• 7:58
  and and and all those types of attacks.
• 8:02
  Those are very
• 8:03
  popular positions.
• 8:05
  I mean,
• 8:06
  particularly in a place like Texas or Kansas,
• 8:08
  right?
• 8:09
  Nobody in Texas or Kansas really wants their
• 8:11
  church talking about climate change every Sunday.
• 8:13
  OK?
• 8:13
  That's,
• 8:13
  that's not really,
• 8:15
  I mean,
• 8:15
  typically what,
• 8:16
  what,
• 8:16
  what the average voter wants.
• 8:18
  The question is,
• 8:20
  when you look at a list of priorities,
• 8:21
  and we're gonna go into some polling on this,
• 8:23
  you don't find those issues at the top right now.
• 8:26
  What people are worried about right now is our gas prices,
• 8:29
  our finances,
• 8:31
  the economy,
• 8:32
  what's going on with my family.
• 8:34
  And so
• 8:34
  this is a tactic that I think Republicans are using.
• 8:38
  They're pushing on these cultural issues because they know
• 8:40
  they poll very well.
• 8:41
  I mean,
• 8:42
  70 and 80% of people agree with them on a lot of these issues,
• 8:45
  girls and,
• 8:45
  you know,
• 8:46
  men and women's sports and all those things.
• 8:47
  Those are successful issues.
• 8:50
  They've won elections with them previously.
• 8:52
  The question is,
• 8:52
  are they at the top
• 8:54
  of the ballot right now?
• 8:55
  Um,
• 8:56
  Trump won Kansas,
• 8:57
  by the way,
• 8:58
  in 2024 by 16 points.
• 9:00
  This
• 9:00
  should not be a race we're talking about
• 9:03
  from the Republican perspective.
• 9:04
  However,
• 9:05
  according to,
• 9:06
  uh,
• 9:06
  uh,
• 9:07
  um,
• 9:08
  uh,
• 9:08
  is it AAA?
• 9:09
  Yeah,
• 9:09
  they have,
• 9:09
  uh,
• 9:10
  the price of diesel
• 9:11
  up 79%.
• 9:13
  This is a diesel.
• 9:14
  Dependent state.
• 9:15
  Obviously a lot of farming going on
• 9:17
  in this area,
• 9:18
  and it's jumped nearly $1 in the last 30 days.
• 9:21
  Uh,
• 9:21
  the,
• 9:21
  the attacks on Marshall have gone a bunch of different ways.
• 9:24
  They've talked about cost of living stuff a lot.
• 9:27
  They also are hitting him on the fact that he has a house in Sarasota,
• 9:29
  Florida.
• 9:30
  They're putting up billboards about this.
• 9:33
  I don't know if that's an effective tactic,
• 9:35
  frankly.
• 9:35
  I mean,
• 9:35
  first of all,
• 9:36
  the guy,
• 9:37
  uh,
• 9:37
  uh,
• 9:38
  Hamilton,
• 9:38
  who is the,
• 9:39
  they're calling him,
• 9:40
  the attacks on him are like he's the uh woke mega church CEO.
• 9:44
  Uh,
• 9:44
  you know,
• 9:44
  he's a very wealthy guy,
• 9:46
  got multiple houses of his own,
• 9:48
  uh,
• 9:48
  and he's his pastor.
• 9:49
  So,
• 9:50
  I don't know that
• 9:51
  this would be the direction I would choose if I were running the Hamilton campaign,
• 9:54
  but they're trying to say,
• 9:55
  hey,
• 9:56
  you know,
• 9:56
  Roger Marshall,
• 9:57
  he likes Florida better than he likes Kansas.
• 9:59
  He's got a house there.
• 10:00
  Now,
• 10:00
  as Marshall has pointed out,
• 10:01
  his house was damaged in a hurricane,
• 10:03
  and he hasn't been able to really
• 10:05
  live in the house at all,
• 10:06
  even for vacations in multiple years.
• 10:09
  Uh,
• 10:09
  but,
• 10:10
  Again,
• 10:10
  you know,
• 10:11
  this is a campaign and people just say things,
• 10:13
  uh,
• 10:13
  that's,
• 10:14
  you know,
• 10:14
  whether that works or not,
• 10:15
  I just don't,
• 10:15
  I don't know.
• 10:16
  Um,
• 10:17
  they did have a debate which was,
• 10:18
  um,
• 10:19
  I would say a major mistake by the,
• 10:21
  uh,
• 10:21
  uh,
• 10:22
  Marshall
• 10:22
  campaign,
• 10:22
  which was to allow this debate to happen
• 10:24
  at the state fair
• 10:25
  with like a raucous crowd
• 10:27
  and a crowd very much determined to shout down Marshall at everything that he said,
• 10:32
  um,
• 10:33
  you know,
• 10:33
  obviously lots of organized,
• 10:34
  I mean,
• 10:35
  look,
• 10:35
  the Democrats organized better and like that's part of,
• 10:37
  part of what this is.
• 10:39
  You know,
• 10:39
  it's one of those things where we can all wish we had a,
• 10:42
  a wonderful conversation
• 10:45
  about policies
• 10:46
  and everyone made rational decisions.
• 10:48
  I got news for you.
• 10:49
  It's 2026 in America.
• 10:50
  That's not what's happening.
• 10:51
  Social media exists.
• 10:53
  This is not,
• 10:54
  this is not the Lincoln-Douglas debates anymore.
• 10:56
  OK,
• 10:57
  what we're seeing here is a bunch of people
• 10:58
  with a lot of emotional reactions to particular policies
• 11:02
  and then
• 11:03
  certain things behind the scenes that actually are real.
• 11:07
  That's,
• 11:07
  this is not brand new in 2026 by any means,
• 11:10
  but it is getting worse,
• 11:11
  I would argue.
• 11:12
  Uh,
• 11:12
  so that is that race right now.
• 11:14
  Here's what the markets look like.
• 11:15
  And honestly,
• 11:16
  this was a race that
• 11:17
  for,
• 11:17
  I have a position in this race,
• 11:19
  which is,
• 11:19
  uh,
• 11:20
  for Roger Marshall.
• 11:21
  I looked at this and thought,
• 11:22
  this is a really good
• 11:24
  opportunity
• 11:24
  to take a bright red state.
• 11:26
  You can't possibly lose a state.
• 11:28
  It's been 90 years,
• 11:29
  right?
• 11:31
  You can't possibly lose in this particular state,
• 11:33
  right?
• 11:34
  Well,
• 11:35
  uh,
• 11:35
  that was my theory,
• 11:36
  and,
• 11:36
  uh,
• 11:36
  so far I am down on that position.
• 11:39
  I have not sold that position.
• 11:40
  I am worried about adding to it because of,
• 11:43
  as I've mentioned before,
• 11:44
  there,
• 11:44
  there's the two areas where I'm worried about adding.
• 11:47
  One in states that are fuel and diesel dependent.
• 11:51
  Worried about adding to Republican positions there.
• 11:53
  Worried about adding to Republican positions in younger,
• 11:57
  more Hispanic
• 11:58
  states as well.
• 11:59
  Those two areas,
• 12:00
  I mean,
• 12:00
  Texas is,
• 12:01
  is a good example of this.
• 12:02
  I've got a,
• 12:03
  a small position on Paxton,
• 12:05
  but a much larger position on Abbott,
• 12:07
  uh,
• 12:07
  the governor in the state,
• 12:08
  uh,
• 12:09
  but.
• 12:10
  You know,
• 12:10
  look
• 12:11
  There's reason to be nervous
• 12:13
  with those particular
• 12:14
  areas.
• 12:16
  Um,
• 12:16
  the predictable Senate board right now,
• 12:17
  just to show you where this is,
• 12:19
  I think this,
• 12:19
  I think this has been updated.
• 12:20
  I think I,
• 12:21
  I sent in an update the other day.
• 12:22
  I don't know if they've updated it yet.
• 12:23
  Uh.
• 12:25
  Yeah,
• 12:25
  you could see Kansas now as a lean Republican,
• 12:28
  uh,
• 12:28
  as opposed to a likely Republican.
• 12:30
  Um,
• 12:30
  there's a couple of changes I did have in here.
• 12:34
  Uh,
• 12:34
  I,
• 12:34
  you know,
• 12:34
  Minnesota is an interesting one too.
• 12:36
  Maybe we'll get into a little bit later.
• 12:38
  The new,
• 12:38
  um,
• 12:39
  predictable midterm consensus,
• 12:40
  we don't have to bring this up,
• 12:41
  Adam,
• 12:41
  but
• 12:42
  the PMC,
• 12:42
  which is my election model,
• 12:44
  uh,
• 12:45
  looks at this Tafoya Flanagan race.
• 12:47
  There's been good polling for Tafoya.
• 12:49
  She's very competitive there.
• 12:50
  I think I need to move that one from
• 12:51
  likely Democrat.
• 12:52
  I can do that here as we're doing it,
• 12:53
  likely Democrat to lean Democrat.
• 12:55
  Um,
• 12:56
  in,
• 12:56
  uh,
• 12:56
  in that particular state,
• 12:57
  um,
• 12:57
  and what you just so you know this is a free resource for you.
• 13:00
  You could play with the Senate board if you scroll up
• 13:02
  a little bit you can see the control of the Senate,
• 13:04
  uh,
• 13:04
  4949 with two toss-ups is where I have that right now.
• 13:08
  You can drag this around however you like.
• 13:10
  Uh,
• 13:10
  play with the results and there's a share feature there.
• 13:13
  We can share that to social media,
• 13:14
  to your friends,
• 13:15
  or whatever you want.
• 13:15
  So that's,
• 13:16
  uh,
• 13:16
  up there at predictableshow.com.
• 13:18
  Now,
• 13:19
  new polling is out on these big issues that matter.
• 13:21
  I wanna go through this quickly.
• 13:22
  Uh,
• 13:22
  I don't wanna spend too much time on it because,
• 13:24
  you know,
• 13:24
  we're somewhat repetitive on these polls.
• 13:26
  They are showing
• 13:27
  identifiable problems for Republicans over and over and over again.
• 13:30
  That's the summary.
• 13:31
  Uh,
• 13:31
  most
• 13:32
  Americans blame Trump for high prices
• 13:34
  as midterms approach.
• 13:35
  A new AP NORC
• 13:37
  poll,
• 13:38
  uh,
• 13:38
  shows you could say you don't believe in polling.
• 13:40
  That's fine.
• 13:40
  In fact,
• 13:41
  if you don't believe in polling,
• 13:41
  you can make tons and tons of money by saying all the Democrats are
• 13:44
  gonna lose on Calci or poly market or predicted or wherever you wanna go,
• 13:48
  so.
• 13:49
  No longer are we at this place where you can just kind of say things and say,
• 13:52
  oh,
• 13:52
  well,
• 13:52
  all this,
• 13:53
  all that polling's BS.
• 13:54
  Uh,
• 13:54
  look,
• 13:54
  if you think it's BS,
• 13:56
  get rich.
• 13:57
  Go out there and don't worry about your own personal economy
• 14:00
  because you're probably gonna win lots and lots of money.
• 14:02
  They may very well be wrong,
• 14:03
  and I always price in a significant polling
• 14:06
  error when I'm looking at prediction market positions because
• 14:08
  I don't trust them
• 14:09
  as surgical instruments.
• 14:11
  They are blunt instruments.
• 14:12
  They tell you general themes.
• 14:14
  They don't tell you
• 14:16
  very specific things like,
• 14:17
  hey,
• 14:17
  who's gonna win in the 51-49 race?
• 14:19
  They're not good at that.
• 14:20
  They're just not good at that.
• 14:21
  What they're good at is telling you general themes.
• 14:23
  Here are some themes in the most recent polling.
• 14:25
  Uh,
• 14:26
  do you approve on Donald Trump on cost issues,
• 14:28
  um,
• 14:29
  uh,
• 14:29
  and other issues as well?
• 14:30
  Most popular thing for Donald Trump,
• 14:32
  border security.
• 14:33
  He's,
• 14:34
  uh,
• 14:34
  still around fifty-fifty on border security.
• 14:36
  Uh,
• 14:37
  but you see obviously massive
• 14:39
  diversity between Republicans and Democrats,
• 14:41
  you know,
• 14:41
  about 90% approval for Republicans,
• 14:43
  about.
• 14:44
  You know,
• 14:44
  18% approval for Democrats.
• 14:46
  Uh,
• 14:46
  immigration again a more popular issue but still
• 14:49
  under 40%,
• 14:50
  so 39%,
• 14:51
  uh,
• 14:51
  for Trump approval rating overall.
• 14:53
  Climate change is in the,
• 14:54
  you know,
• 14:55
  mid-thirties.
• 14:56
  Uh,
• 14:56
  trade
• 14:57
  is lower than that,
• 14:58
  you know,
• 14:58
  we're starting to get into the negative territory here,
• 15:00
  about 30%.
• 15:02
  AI,
• 15:02
  he's.
• 15:02
  About 30% as well approval.
• 15:04
  That's one that's you could see real drop off for Republican
• 15:08
  supporters
• 15:08
  and a little bit more popular for his opinion
• 15:11
  from Democrats on that issue.
• 15:13
  Iran very unpopular in the high twenties.
• 15:16
  The economy overall at 25%.
• 15:20
  That's tough.
• 15:21
  And the cost of living
• 15:22
  is at like 17% approval.
• 15:24
  I mean,
• 15:24
  he's under 40% among Republicans
• 15:27
  on the cost of living,
• 15:28
  and that is
• 15:29
  at the top
• 15:30
  of what people are talking about.
• 15:31
  Um,
• 15:32
  this is,
• 15:32
  uh,
• 15:32
  the economic numbers overall,
• 15:34
  as I just mentioned,
• 15:35
  disapproval of Trump at 20,
• 15:37
  excuse me,
• 15:38
  approval only at 26%,
• 15:39
  disapproval.
• 15:40
  Uh,
• 15:41
  way up in the 70s,
• 15:42
  not great,
• 15:43
  not great going into election.
• 15:44
  Couple of other ones here before we take a break.
• 15:47
  6 in 10 adults say the national economy and the country
• 15:49
  as a whole are worse off since President Trump took office
• 15:52
  again in 2025.
• 15:54
  National economy
• 15:55
  worse off,
• 15:56
  61%.
• 15:57
  Country as a whole,
• 15:58
  60%.
• 15:59
  The economy in the local area,
• 16:00
  55%,
• 16:01
  and uh you and your family 46%.
• 16:03
  This is a bit revealing
• 16:05
  in that
• 16:06
  the best number here is you and your family.
• 16:09
  And the reason for that is because
• 16:12
  some of this stuff is overblown.
• 16:14
  It's not overblown overall.
• 16:16
  There are definitely people struggling.
• 16:17
  I don't wanna make light of that by any means.
• 16:19
  It's a real issue and it's a real issue Republicans have to deal with.
• 16:22
  But a lot of times what you see in this,
• 16:24
  in this polling is like people saying,
• 16:25
  well,
• 16:25
  I'm doing OK,
• 16:26
  but I'm worried about everybody else.
• 16:28
  That's a good instinct for Americans,
• 16:29
  but at times I think we struggle to judge that.
• 16:32
  We do see high prices and worry about other
• 16:34
  people more than we're worrying about ourselves.
• 16:37
  That's a good instinct and a good,
• 16:38
  uh,
• 16:39
  for a good person,
• 16:40
  uh,
• 16:40
  but also
• 16:41
  sometimes it gives us a little bit of
• 16:42
  a misleading idea of what's actually happening.
• 16:44
  If everyone kind of has a more positive
• 16:46
  opinion of their own situation,
• 16:47
  maybe it is a slightly more positive situation
• 16:49
  than the media is portraying,
• 16:51
  um,
• 16:51
  and,
• 16:52
  uh,
• 16:53
  that's about all we have time for,
• 16:54
  I think,
• 16:54
  on that one.
• 16:54
  So let me give you the market here.
• 16:55
  This is an interesting one,
• 16:56
  and by the way,
• 16:56
  I don't think there's,
• 16:57
  this is an easy one,
• 16:58
  I think.
• 16:59
  Um,
• 16:59
  this is which issues matter most to voters.
• 17:02
  The way they measure this,
• 17:03
  this is a Kalshi
• 17:04
  market,
• 17:05
  is basically they're gonna do this big poll
• 17:06
  and release the exit polls after the election.
• 17:09
  This is asking you about the election polls,
• 17:11
  not necessarily what you think the answer is,
• 17:13
  um,
• 17:14
  and what will be the biggest issue that matters
• 17:16
  most is the economy and cost of living,
• 17:18
  a 94% chance.
• 17:19
  Iran is second.
• 17:20
  I don't think there's any chance
• 17:22
  with the exception of like
• 17:23
  Iran.
• 17:24
  Succeeds on a terrorist attack that kills a
• 17:26
  bunch of Americans or something before the midterms.
• 17:28
  I don't think Iran has much of a chance at all
• 17:31
  of that,
• 17:31
  uh,
• 17:32
  being the number one case.
• 17:33
  And if you scroll down,
• 17:34
  you see the other stuff in there and abortion,
• 17:36
  like there's no chance of abortion,
• 17:37
  crime,
• 17:38
  uh,
• 17:38
  none of these have any chance.
• 17:39
  It's gonna be
• 17:39
  right now it's at 94.
• 17:41
  I can't imagine it's anything else other than,
• 17:42
  uh,
• 17:43
  economy and cost of living.
• 17:44
  Even when there are other big issues that we talk about that tends to overperform.
• 17:48
  All right,
• 17:48
  gotta take a break and I'm gonna come back with our candidate of the day.
• 17:51
  We go to another state.
• 17:51
  It used to be the biggest,
• 17:52
  the swingiest state in the,
• 17:54
  in the country.
• 17:55
  Now,
• 17:56
  not so much,
• 17:56
  but can Democrats
• 17:57
  have a shot
• 17:58
  in Florida?
• 17:59
  We'll talk about that next.
• 18:20
  Welcome back to Predictable
• 18:22
  with Stu.
• 18:23
  We have so much to get to today.
• 18:25
  And one of the candidates,
• 18:26
  uh,
• 18:27
  one of the sections that we do all the time is candidate countdown.
• 18:30
  Uh,
• 18:30
  we take 11,
• 18:31
  just one entry
• 18:32
  off of my,
• 18:34
  uh,
• 18:35
  list of picks at predictableShow.com.
• 18:37
  If you're a premium subscriber,
• 18:39
  you get access kind of just like my portfolio,
• 18:41
  everything that I have,
• 18:42
  you can see it,
• 18:43
  you can make fun of it if you think it's terrible.
• 18:45
  Uh,
• 18:45
  you can hopefully profit along with me.
• 18:47
  Many of you have done so during the primaries,
• 18:49
  and we had a great run,
• 18:51
  uh,
• 18:51
  during the primaries,
• 18:51
  and I think we've got a great,
• 18:53
  uh,
• 18:53
  list of positions right now
• 18:55
  for this particular election as we get closer.
• 18:58
  Um,
• 18:59
  it has been an interesting one because we
• 19:00
  do this thing where we do candidate countdown.
• 19:02
  I'm just taking
• 19:03
  positions that I have.
• 19:04
  If you're a premium subscriber,
• 19:06
  you see them all,
• 19:06
  but we're doing,
• 19:07
  you know,
• 19:07
  we don't have time to go through obviously 350 positions.
• 19:10
  On the show,
• 19:11
  so we're gonna go through,
• 19:12
  uh,
• 19:13
  one at a time and kind of walk you through
• 19:15
  my thinking as to why I took this position,
• 19:18
  what the outlook for me is,
• 19:20
  and,
• 19:21
  you know,
• 19:22
  over the past couple of weeks as we've talked about the,
• 19:24
  you know,
• 19:24
  the potential for some big Democratic wave.
• 19:28
  I've tried to position myself mostly,
• 19:31
  uh,
• 19:32
  taking
• 19:33
  a little bit more aggressive positions on the blue side of things,
• 19:36
  and a little,
• 19:37
  a little bit fewer on the red side,
• 19:38
  and,
• 19:39
  and particularly fewer on the red side
• 19:41
  when it comes to states that have been highly affected by
• 19:45
  gas and diesel prices.
• 19:46
  Um,
• 19:47
  you know,
• 19:47
  uh,
• 19:47
  Alaska's a good example of that,
• 19:49
  uh,
• 19:49
  the middle of the country,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:50
  there's a decent amount of that as well.
• 19:52
  Uh,
• 19:52
  when I'm looking for a candidate,
• 19:53
  I'm trying to find one that A,
• 19:55
  uh,
• 19:55
  uh,
• 19:56
  I feel really good about.
• 19:57
  B,
• 19:58
  I think there's some value there.
• 20:00
  Remember,
• 20:01
  you know,
• 20:01
  sometimes
• 20:02
  I'll take a position where I'm not even sure they're gonna win,
• 20:06
  but I think there's value in the position.
• 20:07
  The Susan Collins one is,
• 20:08
  is one recently that I've highlighted that is like that,
• 20:11
  where Susan Collins was at 30%,
• 20:13
  uh,
• 20:13
  30% chance to win.
• 20:15
  I thought she really has like a basically,
• 20:17
  you know,
• 20:17
  48% chance to win,
• 20:19
  maybe the slightest of underdogs,
• 20:20
  uh,
• 20:21
  just because of the climate out there,
• 20:22
  uh,
• 20:23
  for,
• 20:23
  for Republican candidates.
• 20:25
  And
• 20:26
  even though I think I'm not like sure she's gonna win that race,
• 20:28
  I think there's really good value there.
• 20:30
  Uh,
• 20:31
  and
• 20:31
  I,
• 20:33
  I generally speaking,
• 20:34
  I've been trying to
• 20:35
  put myself in a position where I'm not overdosing on too
• 20:39
  much Republican stuff just in case the worst case scenario happens.
• 20:43
  I made a couple of exceptions to that.
• 20:46
  And today's candidate,
• 20:47
  uh,
• 20:47
  countdown candidate,
• 20:48
  the day is,
• 20:50
  well,
• 20:50
  it's sort of like that.
• 20:51
  There's 33 days left until
• 20:53
  the midterm election.
• 20:55
  And today's candidate countdown candidate of the day is
• 21:00
  David Jolly
• 21:01
  from Florida.
• 21:04
  More specifically than no position.
• 21:07
  Uh,
• 21:08
  David Jolly from Florida.
• 21:10
  Now you might say,
• 21:10
  well,
• 21:10
  wait a minute,
• 21:10
  isn't David Jolly running for governor of Florida
• 21:13
  against a Republican Byron Donalds?
• 21:15
  Why didn't you just take the yes position
• 21:17
  on that?
• 21:17
  And of course,
• 21:18
  the reason
• 21:19
  why I did not take the yes position
• 21:21
  on Donald's and then,
• 21:22
  and instead took the no position on,
• 21:24
  on Jolly
• 21:25
  is because of the curse
• 21:26
  of the candidate countdown.
• 21:42
  Yes,
• 21:43
  it's been true,
• 21:43
  uh,
• 21:44
  several times we've featured people on this and then their candidacy has
• 21:47
  gone awry almost immediately.
• 21:49
  So now we're just trying to play with it and see if we can,
• 21:52
  if we can affect these races in the best way possible.
• 21:54
  But I will say the candidate,
• 21:56
  uh,
• 21:57
  jolly,
• 21:57
  uh,
• 21:58
  and his no position,
• 21:59
  let's just talk about it
• 22:00
  as a Byron Donald's yes position.
• 22:03
  The reason why I made this
• 22:05
  take is I,
• 22:06
  you know,
• 22:07
  I'm won over by a few different things.
• 22:09
  Let me go back through where we are and then we all know that
• 22:12
  the,
• 22:12
  the state of Florida has really turned more red over the past
• 22:16
  several cycles,
• 22:17
  right?
• 22:17
  Ron DeSantiss most famously really blowout election in 2024.
• 22:21
  Or 20 2022 or 24,
• 22:23
  I don't remember
• 22:24
  his last
• 22:25
  election.
• 22:25
  He's,
• 22:25
  he's
• 22:26
  term limited here.
• 22:28
  So that's why Byron Donalds is coming
• 22:29
  in.
• 22:31
  One thing that like you might not be aware of
• 22:33
  is how dramatically the shift has occurred.
• 22:36
  People moving
• 22:38
  since COVID,
• 22:39
  basically,
• 22:40
  moving out of blue states where they were very annoyed
• 22:43
  that they were um being constricted in those states.
• 22:47
  They did not like the way those states handled COVID.
• 22:49
  They started moving there from blue states,
• 22:51
  a lot of Republicans moving from those blue states
• 22:54
  down into Florida,
• 22:55
  and that has changed the entire makeup of the state in a way that is really dramatic.
• 22:59
  Let me give you the numbers.
• 23:00
  In 2020,
• 23:01
  Democrats had a 97,000 vote
• 23:04
  registration advantage.
• 23:06
  So there were 97,000 more Democrats than Republicans.
• 23:10
  In 2021,
• 23:11
  that went from 97,000 Democrats
• 23:14
  over to an advantage for Republicans of 43,000.
• 23:18
  Pretty big switch,
• 23:19
  right?
• 23:19
  I mean,
• 23:19
  that's a 150,000 vote switch
• 23:22
  from Democrat to Republican.
• 23:24
  But,
• 23:25
  by the next year,
• 23:26
  2022,
• 23:27
  that had gone from a 43,000 Republican advantage
• 23:31
  to a 383,000 Republican advantage.
• 23:36
  In 2023,
• 23:38
  the next year,
• 23:39
  it went from 383,000 Republican
• 23:41
  to 779,000 Republican advantage.
• 23:48
  I'm not done.
• 23:49
  From 2023 to 2024,
• 23:50
  it went from a 779,000 Republican advantage
• 23:54
  to a 1.2 million
• 23:57
  Republican advantage
• 23:58
  and currently sits at a 1.6
• 24:01
  million vote
• 24:03
  registration advantage
• 24:05
  for Republicans.
• 24:06
  Now that does not mean that every Republican
• 24:08
  votes
• 24:09
  for Byron Donalds or Ashley Moody or whoever else is in Florida.
• 24:13
  It also,
• 24:13
  you have to take into account a very large independent
• 24:16
  group of people in Florida.
• 24:18
  Which is in the millions,
• 24:20
  uh,
• 24:20
  that don't necessarily love Republicans right now.
• 24:24
  OK?
• 24:24
  That is something to take into account,
• 24:26
  but that is a
• 24:27
  massive head start for any Republican in Florida.
• 24:30
  And we all think back to 20 2000,
• 24:33
  right?
• 24:33
  We're,
• 24:33
  we're the closest state in the election,
• 24:35
  and even it's something like 2020,
• 24:37
  I mean,
• 24:37
  when,
• 24:38
  when,
• 24:38
  uh,
• 24:38
  DeSantis first came in.
• 24:41
  It was a totally different state,
• 24:42
  totally different world.
• 24:44
  The current registration is 5.65 million Republicans versus 4.1
• 24:49
  million
• 24:49
  Democrats.
• 24:50
  Uh,
• 24:51
  of course,
• 24:51
  this,
• 24:51
  you know,
• 24:52
  changes all the time,
• 24:53
  but
• 24:53
  that's where it is on our most recent numbers.
• 24:56
  Now,
• 24:57
  Donald's,
• 24:58
  uh,
• 24:59
  in the latest poll had him up 51 to 39,
• 25:03
  a 12-point lead,
• 25:04
  but that has not been all of the polling.
• 25:05
  We'll go into some of that here in a in a,
• 25:07
  in a second,
• 25:08
  but
• 25:09
  Donald's has a lot of money too.
• 25:10
  He's raised a lot of money.
• 25:12
  And the reason this state has gone so red
• 25:14
  that they're running a guy like David Jolly who used to be a Republican.
• 25:18
  Uh,
• 25:18
  he's one of these guys,
• 25:19
  we were just talking about this yesterday where,
• 25:20
  you know,
• 25:21
  Republican candidates.
• 25:22
  Um,
• 25:23
  uh,
• 25:24
  you know,
• 25:24
  wind up dropping out because,
• 25:25
  you know,
• 25:26
  you know,
• 25:26
  whatever the reason is,
• 25:27
  I think in Jolly's case,
• 25:27
  he didn't like Trump or whatever.
• 25:29
  He dropped out.
• 25:30
  He became an independent for a while,
• 25:32
  then he said,
• 25:33
  you know,
• 25:33
  the fake independent syndrome,
• 25:34
  we talked about that earlier this week.
• 25:36
  Then he became a Democrat.
• 25:37
  He's now running as a Democrat in the state
• 25:39
  and trying to say like,
• 25:40
  hey,
• 25:40
  I'm a Democrat,
• 25:41
  but I'm more in the middle,
• 25:42
  you know,
• 25:42
  you can,
• 25:42
  I'm moderate,
• 25:43
  don't worry about it.
• 25:44
  Um,
• 25:45
  he,
• 25:45
  uh,
• 25:45
  Donald's won in the primary convincingly.
• 25:49
  Uh,
• 25:49
  and of course,
• 25:50
  Trump won by,
• 25:52
  you know,
• 25:52
  was it 13 points.
• 25:54
  Uh,
• 25:54
  let me see if I have the numbers here.
• 25:55
  Yeah,
• 25:55
  so this is the,
• 25:56
  this is the baseline advantage here for the past
• 25:58
  few,
• 25:58
  uh,
• 25:58
  terms.
• 25:59
  In 2020,
• 26:00
  Trump won by 3,
• 26:01
  2022,
• 26:02
  DeSantis won by 19,
• 26:03
  2024,
• 26:04
  Trump won by 13.
• 26:06
  The polling
• 26:07
  is a little bit all over the board.
• 26:08
  Do we have,
• 26:09
  uh,
• 26:09
  yeah,
• 26:09
  I'll get to that here in just a second.
• 26:11
  A couple of arguments I want to make on the jolly,
• 26:13
  uh,
• 26:13
  front though.
• 26:14
  We always like to make the counter case to our claim as well.
• 26:17
  As we go through
• 26:18
  the candidate countdown,
• 26:20
  um,
• 26:20
  have some through in looking through my notes here,
• 26:23
  uh,
• 26:24
  polling is somewhat mixed.
• 26:26
  In fact,
• 26:27
  Jolly is actually led in a poll or two.
• 26:28
  Change Research had it at 48-46 Jolly.
• 26:31
  Uh,
• 26:32
  Stetson had it 5139 Donald's,
• 26:34
  uh,
• 26:35
  Saint Petersburg polls had it at 44 to 43
• 26:40
  Donald's.
• 26:41
  So we've seen a couple of the polls that are close,
• 26:44
  uh,
• 26:44
  and then,
• 26:45
  you know,
• 26:45
  a blowout as well.
• 26:47
  Jolly,
• 26:48
  being a former Republican,
• 26:49
  may have some credibility with some,
• 26:51
  a certain section of moderate Republican voters.
• 26:54
  Uh,
• 26:55
  you have over 3 million non-affiliated voters in the state.
• 26:58
  If they all kind of go
• 27:00
  against Jolly or against Donald's,
• 27:02
  there could be trouble for Jolly.
• 27:04
  One recent survey showed warning signs for Donald's with,
• 27:07
  uh,
• 27:08
  with not affiliated voters.
• 27:10
  That change research one,
• 27:11
  remember the one that had a slight lead for Jolly?
• 27:14
  The reason why that lead existed,
• 27:15
  and if these numbers happen,
• 27:16
  it probably will be a loss for Donald,
• 27:19
  uh,
• 27:19
  had him at only a 23% favorite among independents,
• 27:23
  if you will.
• 27:25
  That's a big deal.
• 27:26
  If he's at 23%,
• 27:27
  he's probably not gonna win.
• 27:28
  My guess is it's closer to 40% or 50%,
• 27:30
  and he,
• 27:30
  and that means that he does.
• 27:32
  Um,
• 27:33
  Donald's has never really gone through a statewide election yet,
• 27:35
  not necessarily proven,
• 27:36
  but neither is Jolly,
• 27:37
  so that's not much there.
• 27:39
  And of course you have affordability is a problem in Florida.
• 27:42
  I mean,
• 27:42
  I remember when we moved to Florida,
• 27:44
  uh,
• 27:44
  you know,
• 27:44
  I was working with Glenn Beck,
• 27:45
  we were up in Pennsylvania,
• 27:47
  and I remember moving out of Florida and thinking,
• 27:48
  oh my gosh,
• 27:49
  like someone took out the wrong pricing gun.
• 27:52
  All the houses are on sale.
• 27:54
  Um,
• 27:54
  it felt like it was really cheap to move to Florida
• 27:57
  from,
• 27:58
  uh,
• 27:58
  Pennsylvania.
• 27:58
  Not really the case anymore.
• 28:00
  In fact,
• 28:00
  it's a pretty expensive place to live
• 28:02
  just because there's so,
• 28:03
  so much demand,
• 28:04
  right?
• 28:04
  There's so many people coming down.
• 28:05
  They're building constantly.
• 28:06
  I mean,
• 28:06
  Florida is a great place to live,
• 28:08
  no state income tax
• 28:10
  and the like,
• 28:10
  but there,
• 28:11
  there has been a mass exodus from other states.
• 28:14
  People who can't stand
• 28:17
  Democratic rule
• 28:18
  have moved
• 28:20
  to a Florida,
• 28:21
  to Florida,
• 28:21
  a Republican state.
• 28:22
  And that is one of the big reasons why I really like Byron Donalds in this.
• 28:25
  I don't like him as much as I like Ashley Moody.
• 28:27
  I think I'm more confident in Ashley Moody in the Senate,
• 28:30
  a little bit less here,
• 28:31
  but you get more
• 28:32
  for that uncertainty.
• 28:33
  You get a little bit of a reward.
• 28:35
  Now,
• 28:36
  uh,
• 28:36
  Republicans,
• 28:37
  uh,
• 28:37
  according to Florida Today,
• 28:38
  can't escape Trump ahead of midterms.
• 28:41
  Florida,
• 28:41
  uh,
• 28:42
  president,
• 28:42
  uh,
• 28:42
  excuse me,
• 28:43
  former President Donald Trump,
• 28:44
  um,
• 28:44
  announced in rallies,
• 28:45
  uh,
• 28:46
  for the,
• 28:46
  uh,
• 28:47
  I don't know why they're calling him former President Donald Trump.
• 28:50
  He's also the current president.
• 28:51
  Are they aware of that?
• 28:53
  We should,
• 28:53
  we should update Florida today
• 28:55
  and let them know that 2024 occurred.
• 28:58
  This is really how it's written.
• 28:59
  Former President Donald Trump announced rallies for the Florida GOP.
• 29:05
  Did I miss a big news story?
• 29:06
  He's still president,
• 29:07
  right?
• 29:08
  That still happened,
• 29:09
  uh,
• 29:09
  but he's down there,
• 29:10
  um,
• 29:11
  you know,
• 29:11
  going for candidates.
• 29:12
  And look,
• 29:12
  Donald Trump,
• 29:13
  whether you like Trump or not,
• 29:15
  the truth is his poll numbers suck right now.
• 29:17
  They're not great.
• 29:18
  And so the effect of Trump on some of these races,
• 29:21
  particularly in more moderate states,
• 29:23
  can be a problem
• 29:24
  as candidates try to win.
• 29:26
  I mean,
• 29:26
  we're seeing that in,
• 29:27
  even in the Midwest right now.
• 29:29
  Florida though,
• 29:29
  I think is much more positive for Trump.
• 29:31
  I think
• 29:32
  of the newish sort of red states,
• 29:35
  Florida is probably the most pro-Trump that you're gonna find,
• 29:39
  um,
• 29:39
  as they've gone through this situation,
• 29:41
  uh,
• 29:41
  since 2020.
• 29:42
  Let me show you the polls right now,
• 29:43
  see if there's anything that we missed on the polls.
• 29:45
  Saint Pete had it even,
• 29:46
  4443 Donald's actually.
• 29:48
  Uh,
• 29:49
  a new poll,
• 29:49
  uh,
• 29:49
  Change Research has Jolly up by 2,
• 29:51
  Donald's up by 12,
• 29:52
  according to Stetson.
• 29:54
  You can see Change Research has really liked
• 29:56
  Jolly for a while.
• 29:57
  Their previous poll had Jolly up by 3.
• 30:00
  So actually,
• 30:00
  the most recent poll,
• 30:02
  more positive for Donald's than the previous one.
• 30:05
  Uh,
• 30:06
  another Democratic poll
• 30:07
  had,
• 30:08
  uh,
• 30:08
  Collins,
• 30:09
  uh,
• 30:09
  or excuse me,
• 30:10
  um,
• 30:10
  Jolly up 46,
• 30:11
  45,
• 30:12
  and then you go back to July where we hadn't even picked the candidate yet,
• 30:14
  but you do see Donald's up
• 30:16
  by 7.
• 30:16
  So this is not like a sure thing
• 30:18
  and that the polling is showing,
• 30:19
  look,
• 30:20
  I,
• 30:20
  I like doing this analysis,
• 30:21
  not knowing what the polls are.
• 30:23
  I like going through these analysis,
• 30:24
  crunching these numbers,
• 30:26
  thinking about these races,
• 30:27
  and saying,
• 30:27
  you know what,
• 30:28
  I think this guy's really favored.
• 30:29
  Then I'll look at the polls.
• 30:31
  What I want out of that exercise
• 30:32
  is I'm really hoping the polls tell me the same thing that I'm thinking,
• 30:36
  right?
• 30:37
  And then I feel doubly confident to come in here.
• 30:39
  What we're seeing in the polling is
• 30:41
  basically mixed.
• 30:42
  Um
• 30:44
  You know,
• 30:44
  uh,
• 30:45
  Donald's is not running away with every single poll.
• 30:48
  I would like to see him improving.
• 30:49
  I'd,
• 30:49
  I'll feel more confident and increase my position if he continues
• 30:53
  to,
• 30:53
  uh,
• 30:53
  be ahead in a lot of these polls.
• 30:55
  Um,
• 30:56
  but
• 30:56
  this is what the market looks like right now.
• 30:59
  And if you look at this one right now,
• 31:00
  you have an opportunity to get into Byron Donald's at 77 cents.
• 31:05
  Uh,
• 31:05
  if you are new to prediction markets,
• 31:06
  the way to think about that
• 31:08
  is every share that you buy for 77 cents gives you a 23%
• 31:12
  or 23 cents profit.
• 31:14
  So,
• 31:15
  uh,
• 31:16
  you know,
• 31:16
  it's about
• 31:17
  a third of your money in profit,
• 31:19
  OK?
• 31:20
  Um,
• 31:20
  getting a 30 to 35% gain
• 31:23
  in
• 31:24
  five weeks.
• 31:26
  Normally seen as positive when it comes to an investment gain.
• 31:29
  This is not,
• 31:30
  uh,
• 31:31
  something I would say you're gonna,
• 31:32
  you know,
• 31:32
  it's not my biggest position.
• 31:34
  I,
• 31:34
  uh,
• 31:34
  I have been growing it over the past couple of weeks
• 31:36
  as I've gone deeper and deeper into the research,
• 31:38
  and we made a lot of money on Donald's in the primary.
• 31:41
  Uh,
• 31:41
  I was high,
• 31:42
  it was,
• 31:42
  I.
• 31:44
  If it wasn't my biggest position,
• 31:45
  it was the top three biggest positions I took in the primary was on Byron Donalds.
• 31:50
  Uh,
• 31:50
  we were getting him in the 80% category and rode that all the way up into the 90s.
• 31:54
  He won that,
• 31:55
  uh,
• 31:55
  relatively easily.
• 31:57
  Um,
• 31:57
  and
• 31:58
  I think he is a candidate that
• 32:01
  while I don't think he'll do as well as Moody.
• 32:03
  Uh,
• 32:03
  in the,
• 32:04
  in the,
• 32:04
  uh,
• 32:04
  Florida elections,
• 32:05
  that's the Republican Senate candidate.
• 32:07
  If you're not watching those races closely,
• 32:08
  why would you?
• 32:08
  You probably have a life.
• 32:09
  If you don't live in Florida,
• 32:10
  why would you care?
• 32:11
  We care because we're looking for profits,
• 32:12
  and I do like Moody more.
• 32:14
  You're gonna get a smaller profit margin.
• 32:15
  If you're more conservative,
• 32:17
  if you're like,
• 32:17
  I don't wanna take that much risk,
• 32:19
  you can go into Ashley Moody around 90 cents.
• 32:22
  Uh,
• 32:22
  still a good profit.
• 32:23
  You're still getting 10%.
• 32:23
  percent on your money.
• 32:24
  Nothing wrong with that in a few weeks.
• 32:26
  Uh,
• 32:26
  but I wanna get a little bit more aggressive,
• 32:27
  you can go down this road with Byron Donalds.
• 32:30
  Um,
• 32:30
  this is a similar profile
• 32:32
  in some ways to the way I'm looking at Greg Abbott in Texas,
• 32:35
  who's also in the 70s,
• 32:37
  high 70s,
• 32:37
  low 80s.
• 32:38
  You can get those sorts of profits.
• 32:39
  This is where I love it.
• 32:40
  I love in that 70 to 80 to 90 range where I can get
• 32:44
  1020,
• 32:45
  30% profits
• 32:47
  in short periods of time
• 32:49
  with things that I'm pretty confident in.
• 32:51
  Donald's is,
• 32:52
  I won't say he's at the highest level of my confidence,
• 32:54
  but I do think with the way the state has moved and the way it's made up,
• 32:58
  I do think Donald's will hold on
• 33:00
  in a much closer race than we saw with Donald
• 33:02
  Trump in 2024 or certainly Ron DeSantiss in 2022.
• 33:05
  It's not gonna be that kind of margin.
• 33:07
  I think it's gonna be more like
• 33:08
  mid-single digits to high single digits.
• 33:11
  Um,
• 33:12
  maybe it's even low single digits,
• 33:13
  but I do think Byron Donalds will win.
• 33:15
  So
• 33:16
  he's not our candidate of the day.
• 33:17
  No,
• 33:17
  no,
• 33:18
  no,
• 33:18
  cause that would curse him.
• 33:19
  What,
• 33:19
  what our candidate of the day is jolly,
• 33:22
  but the no position on jolly,
• 33:25
  his opponent.
• 33:26
  That's what we're looking at in Florida and that's what
• 33:28
  we have for you on today's candidate of the day.
• 33:30
  You can get all the candidates of the day,
• 33:31
  by the way,
• 33:31
  if you go back on the YouTube archive,
• 33:33
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 33:36
  They're all listed up there in the,
• 33:38
  in the daily shows.
• 33:39
  And then we have every single prediction market position that I have.
• 33:41
  This is not just election stuff.
• 33:43
  It's not just,
• 33:44
  uh,
• 33:45
  you know,
• 33:45
  uh,
• 33:46
  you know,
• 33:47
  politics related.
• 33:47
  It's also got a bunch of sports stuff in there.
• 33:49
  Um,
• 33:50
  and again,
• 33:50
  it's not like
• 33:51
  sports,
• 33:51
  hey,
• 33:51
  it's gonna win tomorrow's game.
• 33:53
  I don't do too much of that.
• 33:54
  Um,
• 33:54
  it's more like what's gonna happen over the long,
• 33:57
  uh,
• 33:57
  the long haul.
• 33:58
  I,
• 33:58
  I like those positions in sports a lot better.
• 34:00
  You also have,
• 34:01
  uh,
• 34:01
  culture markets and finance markets and,
• 34:04
  uh,
• 34:04
  I mean,
• 34:05
  I don't know,
• 34:05
  there might be a climate one or two.
• 34:07
  There's even one in there about a disease.
• 34:09
  That's right.
• 34:11
  Don't you,
• 34:11
  don't you dare go out there and get screw worm this weekend.
• 34:14
  I,
• 34:14
  I covered this on a previous show,
• 34:16
  but I have a position that no one in America will get
• 34:18
  screw worm.
• 34:21
  I did a bunch of research on this.
• 34:22
  I think the correct number's gonna be 0,
• 34:24
  but I am nervous about it because it only takes 1 to screw me over on that position.
• 34:28
  Don't you be the 1.
• 34:30
  If you see a little weird fly looking at you funny,
• 34:33
  get rid of it.
• 34:34
  Get inside,
• 34:35
  stay inside until January.
• 34:37
  All sorts of different positions available at predictableShow.com
• 34:40
  if you're a premium subscriber,
• 34:41
  and I will say this.
• 34:44
  Of course,
• 34:45
  I want you to subscribe.
• 34:46
  Uh,
• 34:46
  I,
• 34:46
  uh,
• 34:47
  run a company and,
• 34:48
  uh,
• 34:48
  I want you to,
• 34:49
  I want it to be profitable.
• 34:50
  It's a great thing about being a,
• 34:52
  a capitalist and proud of it is that I don't have to lie to you about that.
• 34:55
  I don't have to say that I'm doing this only for my good.
• 34:57
  Do I want you to make money as well?
• 34:59
  Yeah,
• 34:59
  I really do.
• 35:00
  I could have just run a fund.
• 35:01
  That was one of the,
• 35:02
  that was the other model that we talked about at length here
• 35:05
  when it came to prediction markets was just doing either a fund
• 35:08
  or just trading.
• 35:10
  But like I like the idea of bringing you guys in.
• 35:12
  I like that we can all kind of do this together.
• 35:14
  I like that we've all profited
• 35:16
  together for the most part.
• 35:17
  I mean,
• 35:18
  you know,
• 35:18
  not everybody does,
• 35:19
  uh,
• 35:19
  hits,
• 35:20
  hits out of the park every single time,
• 35:21
  but through the primary process,
• 35:23
  it's pretty darn close to everybody.
• 35:24
  Um,
• 35:25
  and what we found over and over again are
• 35:27
  people that decide to go from the free subscription
• 35:30
  into the premium tier,
• 35:31
  get access to all this,
• 35:32
  you get access to the show early,
• 35:33
  so if I'm taking a position,
• 35:35
  you might be able to get,
• 35:35
  you know,
• 35:36
  get a little bit early.
• 35:37
  Uh,
• 35:37
  get in there and get a few extra cents
• 35:40
  of profit on each share.
• 35:41
  Uh,
• 35:42
  but also a great community of people who are discussing these trades all the time,
• 35:46
  um,
• 35:47
  extensive extra live streams and all sorts of coverage,
• 35:51
  plus answering your questions,
• 35:52
  you know,
• 35:52
  as much as I can.
• 35:53
  I'm on there all the time answering people's questions if you have questions.
• 35:56
  Everything from
• 35:57
  the very,
• 35:58
  very basics all the way up to the most advanced stuff that you can think of,
• 36:01
  please,
• 36:02
  uh,
• 36:02
  come to predictableShow.com.
• 36:03
  Become a premium subscriber.
• 36:05
  What we hear over and over again from premium subscribers
• 36:07
  is that like this thing's paid for itself already.
• 36:09
  I've already paid for the entire year subscription.
• 36:11
  Here in a couple of weeks of primary elections.
• 36:14
  We've got a big one coming up.
• 36:15
  If you're interested in these markets,
• 36:16
  if you wanna make these part
• 36:18
  of your portfolio,
• 36:19
  I really do think
• 36:21
  that the premium
• 36:22
  subscription
• 36:23
  is going to be a worthwhile expenditure for you.
• 36:26
  Um,
• 36:27
  I hope you'll come aboard and check that out.
• 36:28
  If you wanna just kind of dabble,
• 36:30
  you wanna see,
• 36:31
  just watch the show,
• 36:32
  listen to the podcast,
• 36:33
  maybe,
• 36:34
  uh,
• 36:34
  become a free subscriber.
• 36:35
  There's still great benefits for free subscribers,
• 36:37
  great tools available
• 36:39
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• 36:41
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• 36:41
  Whether you're just looking to understand the elections better
• 36:44
  or you're looking to trade.
• 36:46
  Whatever it is,
• 36:47
  we love having you.
• 36:47
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• 36:49
  If you haven't been,
• 36:50
  you know,
• 36:50
  uh,
• 36:50
  if you're kind of new to this stuff,
• 36:51
  if you maybe were,
• 36:52
  uh,
• 36:53
  you know,
• 36:53
  a fan of,
• 36:53
  uh,
• 36:54
  of,
• 36:54
  of the,
• 36:54
  you know,
• 36:55
  Studios America or,
• 36:56
  uh,
• 36:56
  me and the Glenn Show or Glenn and Pat,
• 36:58
  Sue and Pat,
• 36:59
  all these,
• 36:59
  uh,
• 36:59
  different shows I've done over the years.
• 37:01
  We love having you here.
• 37:02
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• 37:02
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• 37:04
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• 37:04
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• 37:05
  if it's not part of your,
• 37:06
  uh,
• 37:06
  you know,
• 37:07
  uh,
• 37:08
  portfolio right now,
• 37:09
  if it's maybe too big of an expenditure,
• 37:10
  I know times are tough.
• 37:11
  That's,
• 37:12
  that's fine.
• 37:12
  Come for the free subscription.
• 37:14
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• 37:17
  It's predictableShow.com.
• 37:18
  Check it out now,
• 37:19
  predictableShow.com.
• 37:33
  So I wanna go to Texas.
• 37:34
  I think I,
• 37:35
  I'm in Texas.
• 37:36
  I hear about Texas a lot.
• 37:38
  I think it's the state that I get asked most
• 37:40
  about even online from people who don't live in Texas,
• 37:42
  what's going on with this Texas race because people got into it pretty early
• 37:46
  and so far it has not been good returns.
• 37:48
  Uh,
• 37:48
  if you,
• 37:48
  if you have been following the Texas Senate race,
• 37:51
  new.
• 37:52
  Scandal,
• 37:53
  quote unquote,
• 37:54
  scandal,
• 37:55
  uh,
• 37:55
  happened over the past couple of days.
• 37:56
  Ken Paxton,
• 37:57
  he's the Republican Senate candidate here in Texas,
• 37:59
  heard saying that Trump's GOP midterm convention hurt him.
• 38:03
  Report.
• 38:04
  And this is like a big story in the New York Times is covering this and.
• 38:08
  Again,
• 38:08
  the media's out.
• 38:09
  They're,
• 38:09
  they're doing their thing.
• 38:10
  They're doing their thing right now.
• 38:11
  Uh,
• 38:12
  you know,
• 38:13
  here's what the,
• 38:14
  look,
• 38:15
  they were the most innocuous nothing comments in the world,
• 38:18
  frankly.
• 38:19
  Someone asked him,
• 38:20
  uh,
• 38:21
  I guess in a,
• 38:22
  in a mic,
• 38:22
  the audio got went to the New York Times.
• 38:25
  I wonder who sent it to them.
• 38:26
  It definitely wasn't anyone associated with the Tallerico
• 38:29
  campaign that I want you to know.
• 38:32
  Anyway,
• 38:32
  uh,
• 38:32
  so he said,
• 38:33
  do you feel like there's a little bit of a drag
• 38:35
  as far as the,
• 38:36
  um,
• 38:37
  midterm convention
• 38:38
  went,
• 38:38
  or is it,
• 38:39
  and actually what they said is,
• 38:41
  Um,
• 38:41
  he's a little bit of a drag.
• 38:43
  Now,
• 38:43
  the questioner himself,
• 38:44
  I don't know who the questioner was,
• 38:46
  uh,
• 38:46
  but the questioner themselves
• 38:49
  specifically saying,
• 38:50
  hey,
• 38:51
  basically,
• 38:51
  do you think Trump's a drag on your campaign?
• 38:53
  He said,
• 38:55
  uh,
• 38:55
  Paxton responded,
• 38:56
  so to be honest with you,
• 38:57
  the numbers,
• 38:58
  when we did that convention,
• 38:59
  it dropped our numbers.
• 39:01
  Everybody's numbers dropped.
• 39:02
  Right now,
• 39:03
  yeah,
• 39:03
  not good.
• 39:04
  Now he doesn't refer to Trump at all.
• 39:06
  At no point does he say he's referring to Trump.
• 39:08
  The,
• 39:09
  the question very much seems like
• 39:11
  a setup to try to get Paxson to bash Trump
• 39:14
  so that Trump will get mad
• 39:16
  and then pull all the money out of the state.
• 39:18
  That is 100% what's going on here.
• 39:21
  Uh,
• 39:21
  I,
• 39:21
  I,
• 39:21
  you know,
• 39:22
  that's just speculation except for the fact that
• 39:24
  it definitely happened.
• 39:26
  Um,
• 39:26
  and of course,
• 39:27
  the fact that it's being leaked to The New York Times is another effort
• 39:30
  to try to make this occur.
• 39:32
  The point here is not that that's a controversial statement.
• 39:35
  Anyone can look at polls.
• 39:36
  First of all,
• 39:37
  I don't really know that the polls did dip.
• 39:38
  I don't even know that I would agree with Paxton on that.
• 39:40
  I think they've been pretty stable.
• 39:41
  But
• 39:42
  regardless,
• 39:43
  uh,
• 39:44
  you know,
• 39:45
  it was one of those situations where
• 39:47
  the,
• 39:47
  the idea was
• 39:48
  to cause a split between Paxton and Trump,
• 39:52
  get Trump to get mad and pull the money out of the state.
• 39:55
  And then,
• 39:55
  of course,
• 39:55
  the New York Times,
• 39:56
  who obviously wants Ken Paxton to lose this race,
• 40:00
  is,
• 40:01
  uh,
• 40:01
  out there
• 40:02
  just carrying that water for the campaign.
• 40:04
  So this is just a giant campaign effort,
• 40:07
  basically a campaign commercial that they didn't have to pay
• 40:10
  for and the New York Times is running for free.
• 40:12
  Cause that is,
• 40:13
  look,
• 40:13
  there's just nothing there.
• 40:14
  Now,
• 40:15
  Trump,
• 40:16
  I don't know if you've ever noticed this,
• 40:17
  occasionally can take things negatively,
• 40:19
  uh,
• 40:19
  when people,
• 40:20
  uh,
• 40:20
  criticize him.
• 40:21
  So
• 40:22
  the strategy once again is one that I can somewhat appreciate is just
• 40:26
  like
• 40:27
  pure dark politics.
• 40:29
  I don't like it,
• 40:30
  but it's pure dark politics,
• 40:31
  it's not a bad idea.
• 40:32
  If you can make that split happen,
• 40:34
  Paxton will probably lose.
• 40:36
  If,
• 40:36
  if Trump came out and said,
• 40:37
  I'm not gonna go there and campaign,
• 40:39
  I'm not,
• 40:39
  I'm gonna start trashing Ken Paxton,
• 40:41
  I'm pulling the money out of the state,
• 40:43
  probably Tallerico wins this race.
• 40:45
  Um,
• 40:45
  so it's a big deal.
• 40:46
  It doesn't seem like it's worked.
• 40:48
  Uh,
• 40:48
  Trump defects,
• 40:49
  uh,
• 40:50
  deflects on leaked audio of Ken Paxton,
• 40:52
  calling Texas midterm convention a drag on his poll numbers.
• 40:55
  Um,
• 40:56
  he said,
• 40:56
  uh,
• 40:57
  uh,
• 40:57
  people asked him about that.
• 40:58
  He,
• 40:59
  uh,
• 40:59
  Trump,
• 41:00
  uh,
• 41:00
  said he hadn't heard Paxton's comments,
• 41:02
  but he said,
• 41:02
  I can tell you that the convention was amazing,
• 41:04
  as you probably know.
• 41:05
  Uh,
• 41:06
  he said other people were helped greatly.
• 41:08
  Um,
• 41:09
  and went on to say,
• 41:10
  uh,
• 41:12
  basically,
• 41:12
  like,
• 41:13
  you know,
• 41:13
  I mean,
• 41:13
  like his response,
• 41:14
  I'm trying to find the exact quote,
• 41:15
  but
• 41:16
  basically he,
• 41:17
  he didn't take the bait.
• 41:18
  He didn't take the bait,
• 41:19
  and Republicans now are spending
• 41:21
  over $7 million
• 41:24
  per day
• 41:25
  to try to save Ken Paxton in Texas.
• 41:27
  And I will tell you,
• 41:28
  being in Texas,
• 41:29
  it feels like it.
• 41:30
  It feels like they're spending $7 million a day.
• 41:33
  You cannot watch a sporting event without watching about 5
• 41:35
  different commercials from both Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott.
• 41:38
  Right now,
• 41:38
  I mean,
• 41:39
  it is
• 41:40
  overwhelming how much money they're spending on these races right now.
• 41:44
  And again they are still close.
• 41:45
  Abbott seems to have a small lead.
• 41:47
  Paxson seems to be slightly behind.
• 41:49
  Polly Market tweeted this.
• 41:50
  Ken Paxson crashes in Texas Senate law
• 41:52
  odds after leaked audio
• 41:54
  reportedly
• 41:55
  captures him blaming Trump's convention for declining
• 41:58
  Republican poll numbers.
• 41:59
  Again,
• 41:59
  that is what people are saying.
• 42:01
  I don't agree with that framing really on it.
• 42:03
  They said 41% chance Paxson wins the race.
• 42:06
  Where's the,
• 42:06
  where's the market now?
• 42:07
  Do we have a live market on this?
• 42:08
  This is poly market,
• 42:10
  and wow,
• 42:10
  63-38%.
• 42:12
  You see that massive change there,
• 42:15
  um,
• 42:15
  over the past few weeks.
• 42:17
  Uh,
• 42:18
  look,
• 42:19
  there's a big part of me that says,
• 42:20
  jeez,
• 42:20
  38%.
• 42:22
  You can buy a Republican Senate candidate five weeks from an election for 38%.
• 42:28
  It feels like someone brought the wrong pricing gun.
• 42:31
  Uh,
• 42:32
  everything's on sale.
• 42:33
  But I will tell you,
• 42:34
  Ken Paxton is absolutely in danger in this race.
• 42:36
  I think 38's too low.
• 42:38
  I think it's a 50/50 race,
• 42:39
  maybe he has even a slight advantage.
• 42:41
  Uh,
• 42:41
  as,
• 42:42
  uh,
• 42:42
  but we will see.
• 42:42
  He's gotta have some,
• 42:43
  uh,
• 42:44
  this money's gotta do something,
• 42:45
  uh,
• 42:45
  that they've been spending,
• 42:46
  and we will see
• 42:47
  if that is going to happen or not.
• 42:49
  Gotta take a break,
• 42:49
  back in a second.
• 43:00
  Last night I was feverishly working for you.
• 43:03
  Mhm.
• 43:04
  As I was updating the predictable midterm consensus,
• 43:07
  the PMC is up on the website
• 43:09
  at predictableshow.com.
• 43:10
  This is an election model that I built that looks at all the data from all the experts,
• 43:14
  doesn't have my opinion,
• 43:15
  doesn't have prediction market data in it.
• 43:17
  It has everything else though,
• 43:18
  polling,
• 43:18
  you know,
• 43:19
  fundraising,
• 43:20
  history,
• 43:20
  all the different things,
• 43:21
  plus
• 43:22
  polling models and,
• 43:23
  and everything else.
• 43:23
  So this is what it looks like if you go to predictableshow.com.
• 43:26
  Uh,
• 43:26
  at the top,
• 43:27
  there's a little midterm.
• 43:28
  Tab it will show you where the predictable midterm consensus is.
• 43:30
  Uh,
• 43:30
  if you scroll down,
• 43:31
  I,
• 43:31
  we,
• 43:31
  we try to update this every time we update it.
• 43:33
  I did last night,
• 43:34
  5 things
• 43:35
  from the latest PMC update.
• 43:36
  Um,
• 43:37
  Democrats did well.
• 43:38
  There was an interesting,
• 43:39
  uh,
• 43:40
  update,
• 43:40
  uh,
• 43:41
  from one of the big experts,
• 43:42
  the Sabatos Chris Crystal Ball,
• 43:45
  uh,
• 43:45
  big move in Ohio as well to talk about.
• 43:47
  So you can go check out all that data.
• 43:48
  It's all there.
• 43:49
  All this stuff is free for you if you
• 43:50
  want the individual states as part of the predictable,
• 43:53
  uh,
• 43:53
  premium package which you can get at predictable show.
• 43:56
  Dot com every single race.
• 43:57
  We also have the Senate board.
• 43:58
  You can drag that around and play with that.
• 44:00
  You've got,
• 44:00
  uh,
• 44:01
  all different tools,
• 44:02
  great chat community too,
• 44:03
  by the way.
• 44:04
  If you have an idea for a prediction market,
• 44:05
  if you're thinking like how do I work this,
• 44:07
  how does this happen?
• 44:07
  What happens when this goes on,
• 44:09
  great place to go and ask whether you're a free subscriber or a premium subscriber.
• 44:12
  You can do that
• 44:13
  at predictableshow.com.
• 44:14
  All that's there.
• 44:15
  Join with us now
• 44:17
  and uh we will,
• 44:18
  uh,
• 44:18
  we've got,
• 44:19
  you know,
• 44:19
  just a few more weeks to the,
• 44:20
  to the election to sort all this out.
• 44:22
  Thanks for hanging out with us.
• 44:23
  We'll see you soon.