Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Jeffrey Price: Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Analyst on the latest developments between the US and Iran

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Jeffrey Price: Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Analyst on the latest developments between the US and Iran · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Zip Be.
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  Speaker 2: So, as we were just talking about tensions in the
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  Speaker 2: Middle East flaring up again, the US has launched a
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  Speaker 2: fresh round of strikes on Iran after Trump vowled to
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  Speaker 2: hit the country very hard. Iran's response was to move
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  Speaker 2: once again to close the Strait of Hormuz, as we know,
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  Speaker 2: one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes, and
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  Speaker 2: as we've just heard, Trump has now decided to stand down.
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  Speaker 2: Jeffrey Price is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy
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  Speaker 2: Institute John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and he
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  Speaker 2: joins me. Now, good morning, Jeffrey, Good morning. An hour ago,
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  Speaker 2: we started this show presuming that Trump was going to
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  Speaker 2: strike Iran, and an hour later, the strikes are off.
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  Speaker 2: It's kind of what we've learned to expect, isn't it.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a roller coaster, and you know, there's a
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  Speaker 1: certain amount of brainsmanship here. Now, Donald Trump usually has
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  Speaker 1: some information that goes into his tweets, so we will see.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, this is this is another example of a
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  Speaker 1: sort of branksmanship and deploymacy going to be very sort
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  Speaker 1: of edge of military strikes.
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  Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth had said that these these latest strikes were
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  Speaker 2: not in retaliation for Iranian military action. It was to
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  Speaker 2: put pressure on Tehran to agree to peace on Trump's terms.
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  Speaker 2: We see from the Truth Social Message that he has
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  Speaker 2: said that the final points have been both in concept
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  Speaker 2: and in great detail approved by all parties. So has
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  Speaker 2: it worked.
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  Speaker 1: Again? You know, I will believe it. Believe it when
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  Speaker 1: you see it, because there's a manyes text the company
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  Speaker 1: that there was a few weeks ago. We thought on
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  Speaker 1: our Saturday that there was going to be an MRU
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  Speaker 1: that would lead to basically a cease fire with three
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  Speaker 1: aspects to it. One is a permanent cease fire which
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  Speaker 1: would probably include Lebanon two, opening in the Straight of
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  Speaker 1: Hor movement and the US naval blockade and through the
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  Speaker 1: beginning of nuclear negotiations. And that might or might not
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  Speaker 1: be accompanied by some process on unfreezing earing assets or
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  Speaker 1: lifting of sanctions on Iran. And then there's a side
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  Speaker 1: element to it, which is whether other Gulf states would
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  Speaker 1: proceed on something related to the Adhem Accords with Israel.
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  Speaker 1: That is a lot to put into an agreement. One
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  Speaker 1: of the things that you might expect here is that
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  Speaker 1: perhaps President Trump has decided that what can be gained
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  Speaker 1: by further strikes, doesn't the juice is north to squeeze,
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  Speaker 1: as it would say, But we will see. Another thing
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  Speaker 1: he's alluding to is true, which is that the uranium
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  Speaker 1: decision making process can be very extended. Things have to
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  Speaker 1: be brought up to the Supreme Leader, who is by
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  Speaker 1: all accounts severely injured, and they have a sort of long,
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  Speaker 1: painstaking process of decision making. So it's possible that we're
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  Speaker 1: getting closer to a.
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  Speaker 2: Deal, Jeffrey. When you take a look at what we've
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  Speaker 2: seen just sort of taking place over the last week
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  Speaker 2: or so, do you get a sense that the UIs
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  Speaker 2: have a strategy?
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  Speaker 1: So some of this is managing the seeds fire Cease
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  Speaker 1: fires when the underline stooms are not resolved, can be
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  Speaker 1: remarkably unstable. And I think what prompted the recent grounded
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  Speaker 1: strikes was the downing of the US APACHE helicopter, which
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  Speaker 1: the Uranians say was by accident, but there was a
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  Speaker 1: sort of reciprocal set of strikes, and then the Uranians
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  Speaker 1: at a set of strikes, maybe that that sort of,
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  Speaker 1: you know, days long cycle of escalation is ended, and
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  Speaker 1: now we're back, We're back to the negotiating table. So
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  Speaker 1: the larger elements of a settlement seemed to be there,
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  Speaker 1: those three elements that I mentioned, but it seems to
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  Speaker 1: be very hard to get there when.
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  Speaker 2: You look at those three elements. Is the one that
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  Speaker 2: could be the most tricky is including Lebanon in a
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  Speaker 2: permanent sea spar Israel on Lebanon in a permanent sea spar.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah. So the difficulty there is that Israel has its
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  Speaker 1: own strategy and its own interest there. I mean, the
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  Speaker 1: United States is primarily focused on Iran, but for Israel,
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  Speaker 1: particularly in the Nyahu government, they are very sensitive to
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  Speaker 1: the fact that people in northern Israel are subject to
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  Speaker 1: missile strikes from Hezballat from Lebanon. So they're taking the
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  Speaker 1: opportunity the Israeli government to try and clean out missiles
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  Speaker 1: from areas where they can hit northern Israel because they're
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  Speaker 1: family in northern Israel who can't go to their homes.
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  Speaker 1: So they have a different set of interest. Now President
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  Speaker 1: Trump has I think, you know, fairly overally put pressure
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  Speaker 1: on Yahoo to like not be despoiler in the steel
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  Speaker 1: and it looks like, you know, as oft the moment,
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  Speaker 1: they're is vote that all three elements of the three
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  Speaker 1: part problem are aligned and up so that people can
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  Speaker 1: think of a deal. But again you know, very hard
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  Speaker 1: to reach, so we believe it when you see it.
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  Speaker 2: Jeffrey Price, thank you so much for your time this morning.
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  Speaker 2: The message also the True Social Message, also reads the
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  Speaker 2: naval blockade will remain in full force and effect until
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  Speaker 2: this transaction is finalized. Time and place of the signing
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  Speaker 2: to be announced shortly. For more from early edition with
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: Ryan Bridge, listen live to news Talks. It'd be from
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  Speaker 2: five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio