Latest / Balance of Power / Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Trump, Congress September To-Do List (August 17, 2026)

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Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Trump, Congress September To-Do List (August 17, 2026) · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
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  Speaker 2: This is your weekly Washington policy pulse, the Balance of
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  Speaker 2: Power Podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares
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  Speaker 2: his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital.
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  Speaker 2: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from
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  Speaker 2: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's
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  Speaker 2: Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 1: Good afternoon, everybody. My name is Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 3: I was senior Paulsinos with Bloomberg Intelligence here in the
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  Speaker 3: Washington DC Bureau. Want to say thank you very much
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  Speaker 3: for joining, and thank you to those of you who
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  Speaker 3: are listening via the Balance of Power podcast. We always
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  Speaker 3: appreciate your support. Today is August seventeenth, tenh three a m.
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  Speaker 1: Eastern.
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  Speaker 3: We have a couple of days until the IndyCar Race
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  Speaker 3: comes to Washington. If you are a Washington resident, just
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  Speaker 3: a heads up, the street closures are going to really
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  Speaker 3: start in ernest later today I was driving noticed a
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  Speaker 3: huge National Guard truck parked right in front of the
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  Speaker 3: African American Museum on Constitutions. Just as a heads up,
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  Speaker 3: keep that in mind, maybe worthwhile taking.
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  Speaker 1: The metro or I shouldn't be saying this, but or
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  Speaker 1: work from home.
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  Speaker 3: So anyway, just keep in mind that the street closers
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  Speaker 3: are going to be going on, and then they're actually
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  Speaker 3: going to be a little bit more next week as
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  Speaker 3: they break down the IndyCar race, just because they have
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  Speaker 3: to do things like, you know, weld all the manhole
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  Speaker 3: covers Finbay, so of the F one race in Las
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  Speaker 3: Vegas where it popped up underneath the Ferrari similar story,
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  Speaker 3: but it should be fun race. I'm looking forward to
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  Speaker 3: seeing it going by the Capitol at one hundred and
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  Speaker 3: eighty miles per hour.
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  Speaker 1: So well, let's talk about what's going on.
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  Speaker 3: I want to look a little bit more on the
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  Speaker 3: regulatory side this week, but let's start with cryptocurrency. So
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  Speaker 3: on Friday last week, the SEC was supposed to have
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  Speaker 3: its rulemakings out via a open meeting.
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  Speaker 1: They didn't. There was a cancellation.
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  Speaker 3: So we put a small note this week this morning
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  Speaker 3: just talking about that cancelation and what the SEC could do.
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  Speaker 3: And you know, again this wasn't a cancelation where the
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  Speaker 3: rules are not coming. Maybe this was more of a
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  Speaker 3: cancelation of just look logistically, the SEC staffers hadn't finished
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  Speaker 3: one of the rules. What we had heard is that
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  Speaker 3: there were actually potentially two rules, one related to crypto,
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  Speaker 3: one related to tokenization, and there had been some shatter
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  Speaker 3: that the tokenization proposal may not have been ready yet. Again,
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  Speaker 3: I'm just speculating here. The SEC could be listening to
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  Speaker 3: this and saying, no, you're completely.
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  Speaker 1: Wrong, Nathan.
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  Speaker 3: But anyway, we'll just go ahead and tell you what
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  Speaker 3: we think the SEC is going to do and if
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  Speaker 3: these rules do come out. To keep in mind, the
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  Speaker 3: thing here is is that you have to go back
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  Speaker 3: to interpretive guidance the SEC put out in March in
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  Speaker 3: that they constituted what is considered as security what is
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  Speaker 3: not considered a security.
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  Speaker 1: Fun fact, the SEC reporter is just.
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  Speaker 3: Walking by and smiling at me, so I think you
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  Speaker 3: know we made anyway.
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  Speaker 1: Just sorry, that's why I just disrupted there.
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  Speaker 3: But anyway, what the SEC could do is go back
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  Speaker 3: to the March interpretive guidance and actually say, look, this
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  Speaker 3: is what a security is. This is not what a
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  Speaker 3: security is. Those tokens that are considered securities in this case, Remember,
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  Speaker 3: the SEC is will most likely take the approach that
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  Speaker 3: most of these projects are not securities. I mean, look,
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  Speaker 3: there are going to be projects out there that are
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  Speaker 3: considered securities. Here's what the registration requirements taken place, Here's
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  Speaker 3: what the tailored disclosures look like, and you know, here's
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  Speaker 3: what you essentially have to do to get regulatory clarity.
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  Speaker 3: Now keep in mind, and this is where what's going
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  Speaker 3: to sort of bleed into the White House crypto meeting
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  Speaker 3: that's later this week, is that whatever the SEC in
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  Speaker 3: the CFDC does can be unmowned by a future or
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  Speaker 3: Democratic chair if he or she wishes. And so you
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  Speaker 3: will hear the SEC and the CFDC makes statements saying, look,
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  Speaker 3: clarity is coming. Clarity is here, but it's only clarity
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  Speaker 3: through January twenty twenty twenty nine, if the Democrats take
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  Speaker 3: presidency and decide that they want to have a different
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  Speaker 3: direction here.
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  Speaker 1: So keep that in mind.
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  Speaker 3: Now, these rulemakings fairly benign. I think there could be
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  Speaker 3: some innovation safe farbor here. The more interesting one, I
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  Speaker 3: think is this tokenization rulemaking, because this is where you know,
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  Speaker 3: Traditional Finds is really headed in terms of its infrastructure
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  Speaker 3: in terms of twenty four to seven trading, in terms
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  Speaker 3: of digitized tokens related securities and so forth. Our market
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  Speaker 3: structure team, which is led by Larry Tabart, Director of
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  Speaker 3: Financials Research, is doing a lot of work on this
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  Speaker 3: at the moment. So if you want to get a
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  Speaker 3: little bit deeper into this idea of what tokenization trading
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  Speaker 3: looks like, let me know. I'll be happy to put
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  Speaker 3: you in touch with you know, that team, because when
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  Speaker 3: that proposal comes out, they're going to be doing a
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  Speaker 3: lot of deeper insights in terms of the actual market
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  Speaker 3: structure and the technology and the infrastructure behind the idea
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  Speaker 3: of tokenization of trading. You know, the first rulemaking is
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  Speaker 3: really just more of like, okay, here, if you have
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  Speaker 3: a crypto project, this is how I think you register
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  Speaker 3: or not have to register, which is important.
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  Speaker 1: But you know, the.
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  Speaker 3: Tokenization pieces, that's what's going to bleed into traditional finance
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  Speaker 3: I think a little bit more.
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  Speaker 1: So stay tuned on that. Now.
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  Speaker 3: When is the SEC going to have its next meeting?
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  Speaker 3: It's unclear. You know, it could be fairly soon. It
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  Speaker 3: could be later this month, could be next month, et cetera.
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  Speaker 3: You know, there's two trains of thoughts. One is did
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  Speaker 3: the SEC want to get a head of clarity look
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  Speaker 3: the Clarity Act. I dropped my odds to forty percent.
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  Speaker 3: I've actually got my first Bloomberg coffee. Remember if you
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: if you attend these calls, you know that I offer
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: your Bloomberg coffees. I have my first Bloomberg coffee with
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  Speaker 3: a client tomorrow, just to say I'm sorry that I
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  Speaker 3: got that one wrong. But you know, now that the
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  Speaker 3: SEC has sort of said, look, clarity, the Senate has left.
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  Speaker 3: You know, there's still discussions, et cetera, but let's go
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  Speaker 3: ahead and actually start preparing for world without the clarity.
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  Speaker 3: That's where the SEC rulemaking comes into play.
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  Speaker 1: Now.
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  Speaker 3: This White House crypto meeting, So the White House has
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  Speaker 3: a meeting later this week with essentially the members of
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  Speaker 3: the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee.
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  Speaker 1: They have a meeting at the day after.
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  Speaker 3: So think of coinbase, Ice, Nasdaq, you know, CME Group,
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  Speaker 3: Paul Market, Calshie. I mean, there's a whole bunch of
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  Speaker 3: folks here who are going to be meeting at the
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  Speaker 3: White House. We don't really know exactly what the agenda
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  Speaker 3: of the White House is. I haven't seen it, nor
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  Speaker 3: do we know if President Trump specifically is going to
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  Speaker 3: be attending here. But The way I view this White
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  Speaker 3: House meeting is, look, you're going to see a commitment
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  Speaker 3: from the White House to say the Senate didn't do
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  Speaker 3: its job, clarity didn't pass.
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  Speaker 1: We are here for you. We are going to give
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  Speaker 1: you the crypto clarity that you need.
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  Speaker 3: But as a reminder, that's only go through January twenty
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  Speaker 3: at twenty twenty nine. So I think it's going to
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  Speaker 3: be more of the White House just saying, look, we
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  Speaker 3: got your back, We're going to help you any way
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  Speaker 3: we can, we support you, et cetera. We're going to
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  Speaker 3: give you clarity until January twenty, twenty twenty nine.
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  Speaker 1: So you know, I don't think.
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  Speaker 3: I'm not expecting a ton to come out of that meeting,
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  Speaker 3: but we'll certainly pay attention to it. And then you
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  Speaker 3: have the CFTC Innovation Advisory Meeting the next day. Now,
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  Speaker 3: these advisory committees, and this is formally if you're in
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  Speaker 3: the CFTC space, this is the formerly committee known as
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  Speaker 3: the TACK the Technology Advisory Committee essentially, and I go
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  Speaker 3: back before Bloomberg Intelligence. I was actually a member of
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  Speaker 3: the CME group's public policy team, and I used to
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  Speaker 3: have to go to these meetings and these meetings will
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  Speaker 3: last like for a half a day or full day,
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  Speaker 3: and I would write down every single note what every
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  Speaker 3: single person said. Now you can just record it and
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  Speaker 3: have I do it for you instantly. But what happens
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  Speaker 3: is that there's a big U ship US shaped table.
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  Speaker 3: They get everybody from the industry around, industry academics, et cetera,
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  Speaker 3: and the CFTC staffers sit there and they listen and
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  Speaker 3: it's a great discussion from the industry. But remember it's
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  Speaker 3: the CFTC listening, it's not the CFTC giving. Obviously, Chairman
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  Speaker 3: Siegelig will probably give an opening remark, there may be
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  Speaker 3: another remark from one of the directors over there, but
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  Speaker 3: again this is a CFTC listening session, and so this
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  Speaker 3: is going to help formulate rummakings for the CFDC going forward.
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  Speaker 3: So certainly something to pay attention to and certain something
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  Speaker 3: to watch because you're getting good insight from the industry,
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  Speaker 3: but you're not going to get a ton from the
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  Speaker 3: CFTC that's going to come in the next few remaining months.
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  Speaker 3: Also on the SEC front, one last thing is is
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  Speaker 3: that I used some of the quiet time last week
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  Speaker 3: to go back and look at the request for comment
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  Speaker 3: that the SEC put out back in July on registration
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  Speaker 3: and whether or not there should be a regulatory framework
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  Speaker 3: for novel ETFs. Exchange traded funds. These are ETFs that
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  Speaker 3: include like crypto or event contracts or et cetera. So
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  Speaker 3: I read through all the questions, I went through the
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  Speaker 3: request for comment and is remember this is a request
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  Speaker 3: for comment, This is not a proposal, so there's really
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  Speaker 3: nothing here that says this is what it's going to
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  Speaker 3: look like. But I went through the request for comment,
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  Speaker 3: and my insights on that was essentially is that I
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  Speaker 3: could see as the biggest takeaway a difference in the
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  Speaker 3: approval process for novel ETFs. You know, one of the
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  Speaker 3: big frustrations if you talk to the ETF world, So
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  Speaker 3: think of Eric Palcunis or James Seiferton at BI, and
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  Speaker 3: their research is great researching, but if you talk to
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  Speaker 3: the ETF world, a lot of times it's a race
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  Speaker 3: to the bottom. I mean, these folks, the ETF issuers,
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  Speaker 3: they put out these these these you know, essentially noticed
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  Speaker 3: is saying we would like to launch a new ETF,
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  Speaker 3: and you know, the next person does it, the next
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  Speaker 3: person does it, and so you try and time the
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  Speaker 3: market from when the SEC says okay, fine, go forth,
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  Speaker 3: it sounds like the SEC wants to come back and say, look,
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  Speaker 3: we're tired of this. We're tired of you guys spamming us.
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  Speaker 3: That's my word, not them. You know, We're tired of
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  Speaker 3: you spamming us with all these requests for new tetfs.
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  Speaker 3: Let's get a little bit more information. Let's get a
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  Speaker 3: little bit more of a process here. So I think
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  Speaker 3: that depending on the ETF and again this is just
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  Speaker 3: wild speculation without seeing proposal. This is based off the
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  Speaker 3: request for comment. Some of these approval timelines will speed up,
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  Speaker 3: some of them will actually slow down.
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  Speaker 1: But I'm looking for a proposal to.
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  Speaker 3: Come out later this year just because it was an
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  Speaker 3: interesting request for comment. I mean, there are a lot
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  Speaker 3: of issuers out there moving forward with pretty cool ideas
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  Speaker 3: I think in terms of ETFs, and so this is
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  Speaker 3: where I think.
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  Speaker 1: The SEC is going to come into play. So let's
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  Speaker 1: just go around the robin. There's a couple of other things.
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  Speaker 3: As a reminder, today is the sixty day expiration deadline
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  Speaker 3: for the member of Memorandum of Understanding between the US
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: and i RAN. It also comes when President Trump announced
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  Speaker 3: earlier this morning that he would bomb Oman if they
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: got in the way. That's my way of saying is
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  Speaker 3: is that we don't anticipate anything really changing that front
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  Speaker 3: anytime soon. You are going to start hearing chatter from
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  Speaker 3: President Trump on potential relief for capital gains tax. Look,
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: if you're well listening to us right now in New York,
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: New Jersey, you probably love this idea. If you have
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: investors in the market, you're going to love this idea.
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  Speaker 3: The problem I've got for you is that there is
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  Speaker 3: nothing President Trump can do to change the tax code unilaterally.
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  Speaker 3: Send it is out until September fourteenth. They've got like
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: the four things that they want to do in September,
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: then they're out in October. Now you're in the lame duck,
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: and then boom, You've lost essentially any momentum for the
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: rest of the year from the legislative change through the
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: budget reconciliation process. The tax committees aren't even involved in that.
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  Speaker 3: So again you're gonna hear chatter. I think President Trump's
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: going to come out and say, I'm going to change
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: the capital GAINSLAK, I'm going to delete the you know,
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: take down the capital's gains tax. In reality, there's nothing
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  Speaker 3: he can really do on that, So just keep that
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: in mind. A couple other things. Just this morning, the
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  Speaker 3: Treasury Department. Treasury Department put outs requests for comment on
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  Speaker 3: Genius Act implementation for stable cooints. It's a sixty day
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  Speaker 3: comment period if you are a stable point issuer or
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  Speaker 3: if you were exposed to a bank that is, you know,
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: getting involved in stable coins. As a reminder, the Office
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: of the Control of the Currency as a part of Treasury,
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: is the one who's leading this effort. And the biggest
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: issue here is is that even though Genius Act prevented
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: and prohibited essentially we're paying yield or interest on stable coins,
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: you have these reward programs of a coin base, et cetera.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: This is what's driving the Clarity Act. But in the
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: occ comment there was language that makes it a little
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: bit stronger than Genius that prohibits anything like a handshink
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: weink nod that actually, in my interpretation, prevent coinbase from
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: offering reward programs. I'm gonna be looking to see in
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  Speaker 3: that Treasury proposal if there's any language like that, because
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: that's a big hold up right now with the stable
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: coin language. And then I think what the OCC was
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: doing was just saying, look, we have this out here,
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  Speaker 3: We're gonna wait and see if the Clarity Act fixes
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  Speaker 3: it for us. But now, if the Clarity Act doesn't pass,
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: folks over at Treasury and the OCC have a real
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  Speaker 3: pickle now, because you either have to say, right, we're
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: gonna upset the banks and keep the Genius Act as is,
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: or we're gonna upset the crypto platforms, who have already
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: vowed that they're going to sue if this actually moves forward.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: So again, I'll be paying attention to look for a
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: piece of my analysis out later this week.
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  Speaker 1: A couple of other things. One is my colleague Andrew Silverman.
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  Speaker 3: If you were in the college sports space, or honestly,
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: if you just care about NCAA football, you know, keep
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: there was a bill. So my colleague Andrew Silverman actually
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: put a couple of notes out on the terminal last week.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: So as you remember, in the United States we have
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: this thing called the nail.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Now, college athletes.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: Can go out and get paid, they can get you know, endorsements,
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: they can do they all have agents, etc.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Like that.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: It's almost like a semi professional. I would argue with professional.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: Senator Ted Cruz from Texas has a bill that's a
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: bipartisan bill that would actually place a national framework on
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: college sports. The big hold up was the SEC in
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: the Big Ten. The SEC in the Big Ten came
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: forward and said they support this, so there was going
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: to be a vote. Now it looks like that vote
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  Speaker 3: has been pushed until September. We don't have a good
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: feeling of whether or not that vote is actually going
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: to look But Andrew actually broke down the nail, broke
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: down the framework, and you're looking around two point three
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: billion dollars just for the broadcasters operating under a single framework.
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  Speaker 3: And so this is going to be somewhat big idea
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: excuse me, in terms of sports. So and then Andrew
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: also took the look at the tax implications, both from
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: the universities and from the private sector. From the universities,
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: you can imagine it's not a really good thing if
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: you know, all of a sudden, you know, the colleges
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: have to start spending more money to attract athletes, et cetera.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: Even though the Neil Millenni money comes from outside sources.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: It's one of those scenarios where if you are in
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: the Big Ten and you get that paycheck that comes
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: from the broadcasting platform, you're sitting pretty good, which is
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: very fortunate for my alma matter, Purdue, because our football
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: team's horrible.
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  Speaker 1: Look.
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  Speaker 3: I love the basketball team, but you know, our football
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  Speaker 3: team does not represent.
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  Speaker 1: But if you don't have access to that, if you're.
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  Speaker 3: Not part of the Big Ten or the SEC, and
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: if you're sitting out there like my ads al Mo
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: mater Northern Illinois University, which is now part of the
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: Mountain West, those teams are going to have to pony
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: up a lot more money as a result to play
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: within this national framework. So Andrew has that as well. Finally,
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: a couple of other things. The last two things. One,
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: you saw a notification You may have seen a notification
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: from Treasury last week saying the beneficial ownership rules are
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: permanently gone. You know, when you registered a company, you
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: had to register your now your beneficial ownership you had.
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: This goes back to the Corporate Transparency Act of twenty
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: twenty one, which actually was signed, you know, under the
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: first Trump administration. But the key thing to keep in
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: mind here is is that this beneficial ownership rule essentially
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: allows you to identify who owns companies. It's part of
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: the Corporate Transparency Act, which is an Act of Congress.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: So even though Treasury says that they've permanently.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: Ended it, they haven't because it's an Act of Congress
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: and only Congress can actually undo that. So they essentially
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: have turned off the reporting requirement, which is within their jurisdiction,
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: within their right to do so. Somebody may sue, but
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: that's a different story. But Treasury has said that we
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: are no longer going to collect that data. But as
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: a result, come January twenty of twenty twenty nine, a
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: new Treasury Department could come out there and say, right,
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: we're turning it back on. You now have the reporting,
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: So that permanent end is only permanent if Congress gets
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: in the way. So that's the last thing I wanted
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: to talk about now about.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Just things that are going on now.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: I wanted to end this call, which again which is
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: a very lengthy call. I apologize for that. I know
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: it's August, but I wanted to end this call with
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: an update on where we are with the House and
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: the Senate races. So I went to the prediction markets.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: I went to the Cook Political Report this morning, and
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: I was just plucking around with it. So here's where
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: we're at in terms of the House. The Cook Political
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: Report has nineteen seats that are considered toss ups. This
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: is actually an increase of the last time I looked
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: at it. For those Democrats fifteen of those Republicans. And
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: if you look at the seats that are likely d
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: or likely are, you know, there are a couple of
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: Democratic seats that do to districting have gone into the
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: likely are. There are a couple of Republican seats that
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: have gone into the likely ded just in terms of
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: like trends, et cetera.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Like that that's considered a wash.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: But the Cawshi Prediction Markets has it about an eighty
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: six percent chance that the Democrats take the House. One
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: polster that I trust actually was on the TV this
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: morning and she said ninety percent chances the Democrats take
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: the House. So we need to start preparing for a
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: world in which the Democrats take the House. There was
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: a Bloomberg News article yesterday or last week that said,
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: if the Democrats take the House, prepare for subpoenas. So
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: if you're in the government relations space, if you're sitting
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: over on K Street right now, and you're watching us
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: and you think there's a chance. I mean, look, I'm
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: already preaching to in the boy because you know, if
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: you're sitting on the K Street, you already know this.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: But you know that's where the world is going to
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: have to be, is that the Democrats, using the House
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: Oversight Committee, is going to start investigating companies.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: So keep that in mind. If the Democrats take the House.
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: On the Senate story, it's a fifty to fifty how
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: she has a fifty one percent chance of the Republicans
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: retained the Senate. They the Cook Political Report has four
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: toss up seats. They have Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio.
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: They have North Carolina single handily going to the Democrats.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: They have Senator Asoff single handily winding in Georgia. They
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: have Iowa, Texas, and Kansas, which I know if you
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: looked at some of the polling, there is polling out
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: there that suggests that the Democrats could win in those
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: three seats. The Cook Political Report has those in the
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: likely are and in fact in the Kansas state solid
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: are perspective. But if the Democrats run the table, meaning Michigan, Maine, Alaska,
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: in Ohio that's the Senate. So that's the Senate. That
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: means the Democrats have both chambers. But I remember the
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: Republican in the Calshie market, it's a fifty one percent chance.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: One interesting thing though, that I would just say is
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: that even though the Republicans have a fifty one percent
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: chance according to the Calshui markets, if you ask Calshi
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: traders to predict the breakdown by chamber, meaning pick Democratic Senate,
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: Democratic House, Republican Senate, Republican House, Democratic Senate, Democratic House,
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: actually leads forty eight percent to Republican Senate, Democratic House
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: thirty eight percent. So if you think that the most
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: likely scenario is a Republican Senate and a Democratic House,
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: which is if you take them individually, that does in
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: correspond to what the Calciat traders are actually putting their
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: money on. So again, this is all Calshi and this
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: is all polymarket. Again, this is not pulling, but I
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: just think it's interesting to keep in mind that that's
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: my barometer that with the Cook political report of where
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: we are going forth into the midterm elections. So I
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: want to stop there and we'll say thank you very
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: much for you attending.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: We really appreciate it.
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: As a reminder, if you are a Bloomberg terminal client
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: and you would like to get on our distribution list,
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: meaning you'd like me to ibu in advance of this
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: discussion or maybe send you a replay afterwards, please let
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: me now be happy to do that again. Have a
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: wonderful August week. We will talk soon and take care
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: and have a great week.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: Par thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analysts,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: bringing you the latest installment of his wi weekly Washington
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: Policy Pulse. For more from BI or to join this
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: call live each week, you can email Nathan at Ndan
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot net. That's n d e a n
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot net and come back to the podcast
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: later today for the latest edition of Balance of Power