Latest / Sea Hawkers Podcast: for Seattle Seahawks fans / Who Will Stand Out? Our Boldest Predictions for the Patriots Rematch

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Who Will Stand Out? Our Boldest Predictions for the Patriots Rematch · Sea Hawkers Podcast: for Seattle Seahawks fans

0:10
Welcome to the Sea Hawkers Podcast, live from Renton, Washington.
0:14
We lost Wilson as we were getting going here- No… but we will get him back.
0:18
We are live from Renton as we get ready to celebrate our Seahawks this Wednesday
0:23
as they take on the New England Patriots.
0:25
And, Clinton and I sit uncomfortably close as we bring you
0:28
our Blue Friday bets, and we have our special guest, Wilson Conn, with us.
0:32
Clinton, I am fired up for tonight.
0:34
I am as well.
0:35
Hey, what's up?
0:35
So yeah, kinda weird for this whole thing to be starting on a Wednesday.
0:38
Kinda weird that we start our show and Wilson gets kicked
0:41
out, but he's right back.
0:42
There he is.
0:42
And if you haven't seen Wilson in a while, yeah, he went bald.
0:45
It's okay, ladies.
0:46
We know- I think it's voluntary bald, though.
0:48
Yeah.
0:48
No, it-… nearly.
0:50
Yeah.
0:50
But he's looking better than ever, but he's back.
0:52
He's with us.
0:53
It's gonna be a lot of fun.
0:54
And we have some…
0:55
We're gonna do our, our best props, our best, what do they call them?
0:59
Parlays.
0:59
Parlays.
1:00
That's one thing, isn't it?
1:01
That's right.
1:01
Yeah.
1:01
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
1:02
And our picks because we are Super Bowl champions, and we're taking on a team
1:07
that we absolutely decimated last year.
1:10
Wilson, it's a little bit different than last year, but how much
1:13
different is it actually going to be?
1:15
We'll find out with your bets, but what's your feeling going into defending, running
1:20
this forward, as Mike likes to say?
1:22
Boy, I have to say, I mean- Starting the next season with a team whose
1:27
ass you absolutely kicked in the Super Bowl is- Belt to ass.
1:30
Belt to ass… I mean, we have to say what it was.
1:32
I mean, 29 to 13, it might not look that bad, but we all watched the game.
1:37
And, I think if I was the Patriots, I would be shaking in my boots
1:41
coming into this game, just, just afraid of, having to live that
1:44
humiliation ritual all over again.
1:47
Yeah.
1:48
and it sounds like, you know, Mc- McDaniels and, oh, no
1:52
no, Josh and, Rabes… Rabes and- And Diana… and Diana.
1:58
Well, they just- Yeah.
1:59
… they seem a little, they just seem a little, like, you know, like, a
2:02
little, resigned that they're not gonna win this football game.
2:05
I, I don't know.
2:06
we're missing some safeties.
2:07
We'll talk about it all.
2:08
But we're gonna examine it through our bets.
2:10
This guy right next to me, Wilson, he won last year.
2:13
Surely did.
2:14
Yeah.
2:14
Yeah… props are props.
2:15
But before we get, before there's one more iota of a prop given to this guy, let's
2:20
give props to our executive live producer, Ryan 911-… with the 999 Super Chat.
2:26
Adam, you read it.
2:27
Okay.
2:27
It says, "Y'all brought in the Princetonian."
2:29
"Might actually make some money this week.
2:31
Go Hawks."
2:32
And, look, I may have won this last year, but, it feels
2:36
like an empty victory because we didn't have Wilson all year, who
2:40
you know, he, he is our money maker.
2:42
He makes it rain for everybody.
2:43
So, I'm excited to get into this, boys.
2:46
Should we get to our first down bets- I think we gotta… or do we
2:48
wanna explain our, our betting, philosophies here and how we make it work?
2:52
I'll, I'll explain it real quick for those that might be new to it.
2:54
So we call it Blue Friday bets.
2:55
It's real simple.
2:56
We do four downs, 'cause there's four downs in football, people.
3:00
Down one, down two, down three.
3:02
It's a $10 bet.
3:03
Take anything you want on the board at the odds that, you know
3:05
DraftKings or whatever gives you.
3:08
But then the fourth bet, we call it the Fail Mary.
3:10
It must be plus 1200 or longer odds to qualify, which means if
3:15
you bet 10 bucks, you're winning what, 120 on that particular bet?
3:19
If you say so.
3:20
Yeah.
3:20
That's- Yeah… that's plus 1200.
3:22
So, or does not qualify, so you gotta go there.
3:24
And watch out for the Wilson 300.
3:26
It's not a rule, but it is a way of life, Wilson.
3:29
Isn't that correct?
3:31
It is a way of life, and I might even have something a little
3:33
spicier cooked up for y'all today.
3:35
Ooh, careful.
3:35
Careful.
3:36
Here we go.
3:38
All right.
3:38
Yeah.
3:39
Well, it is honor system.
3:40
You won, you go first.
3:42
Bet one, down one, first bet of the year as we run it forward.
3:46
Adam, what do you got?
3:47
All right.
3:47
Well, I'm running it forward by looking back just a little bit, boys.
3:51
So, Wilson, you brought it up at the top of the podcast here
3:54
talking about the idea of the belt ass spanking that we put on- BTA
3:58
these poor, sorry New England Patriots.
4:01
And the thing is, is that I'm not sure the Patriots got better, despite the A.J.
4:05
Brown and Doubs addition.
4:08
they lost a lot on defense as well, and I don't see this as being
4:12
really a very different story when we watch our team tomorrow night.
4:17
And so I'm going with the Seahawks minus seven and a half- Ooh
4:20
giving seven and a half, and that gets me plus 168 odds, I believe
4:25
because it cut it off the screen, which is really cool for me.
4:27
and it's still not giving it to me, but we're gonna call it
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plus 168- Yes, sir… because, that's what I remember it being.
4:33
165, there it is.
4:35
and I feel pretty good about this, because I feel like this dominant
4:39
team that has been overlooked all off-season is gonna take it out
4:43
on these sad sacks from Boston.
4:45
I mean, look, on our What If preview show, I predicted a win of double digits.
4:50
So, and I don't think it's a cakewalk.
4:51
I think the Patriots are better, but I love getting the Patriots week one.
4:55
They overhauled their offense, and a week one offense coming into Seattle
5:00
I could see us winning by that many.
5:03
That's a…
5:03
Wilson, pretty spicy out of the gate from this guy.
5:06
Do we win this game by more than seven and a half points, you think?
5:10
I think so.
5:11
I, I like where both of you guys' heads is at.
5:13
I'm just thinking Lumen that loud with the banner coming down before
5:16
the game- Yeah… I just don't think Drake Maye is built for that kind of
5:20
environment and that kind of game.
5:22
And, I think the Seahawks should handle it.
5:25
I like it.
5:26
I like it, Wilson.
5:26
All right, you know what?
5:27
You're up, buddy.
5:28
Take it away.
5:29
You did join us throughout the entire playoff stretch.
5:32
You know, the, the Seahawks were the only NFL team to have zero turnovers
5:37
through the entire playoffs on their way to a Super Bowl victory.
5:41
You were with us for every single one of those games.
5:43
So you go second.
5:44
Where are you taking us, Wilson, and why is it gonna win?
5:47
Well, I try not to take, too much credit for Sam Darnold all
5:51
of a sudden-… for getting out from throwing interceptions.
5:54
But, I'm going in an interesting direction here.
5:56
We're talking about the themes of offensive changes for the Patriots.
5:59
The big one for the Seahawks, obviously, is the departure of Super Bowl MVP Kenneth
6:04
Walker, and there are some question marks a little bit about what the share is gonna
6:09
look like in the backfield, especially to start the season with Jadarian Price.
6:13
Being a rookie, obviously there's been a lot of talk about how he, he didn't
6:17
have very many touches in college and that, you know, we still want him
6:20
to be a focal point of the offense.
6:21
He flashed in camp a lot, but that he might not be, you know, a 25, 20
6:27
carry back right out of the gate.
6:28
Mm-hmm.
6:29
So I actually went in a different direction than Jadarian Price here.
6:31
I'm taking George Holani with over 20 rushing yards at minus 111.
6:35
That's interesting.
6:36
It's gonna be an interest- it's gonna be an interesting, Sort of
6:40
recipe to see what the Seahawks put together with the run game on offense.
6:44
we're just not used to Holani in the RB2 role.
6:46
Obviously, with Charbonnet out for the foreseeable future, he'll be in that spot.
6:50
and I honestly liked what we saw out of him last year when he did get touches.
6:54
He s- he showed a few flashes.
6:55
So I think 20 yards is a somewhat low bar at minus 111
6:58
that I feel okay about taking.
7:00
Look, th- they're gonna spread the ball around at least a little bit.
7:03
so I like your explanation.
7:05
We also don't know if Emmanuel Wilson really is gonna factor in
7:09
or even play, so we just don't know if that's happening yet.
7:12
We'll find that out tomorrow morning.
7:14
Holani's gonna get some touches.
7:16
It's…
7:16
They're already saying, like, a probably a 60/40 type split in the Charbonnet area.
7:21
So if he carries the ball six, seven, eight times, compiling
7:25
20 yards seems fairly logical.
7:27
totally in range, and I like the odds there at just minus 111.
7:31
I mean, f- fairly close to even odds.
7:33
Yeah.
7:33
And so not only do I see them splitting the carries, like that 60/40 kinda split
7:38
that you talked about there, Clinton, but really on third down, I think
7:42
you're gonna see a lot more Holani.
7:44
Now ordinarily, that would mean, like, a, a passing situation, in a lot of ways.
7:48
But- Doesn't have to… it could also be, like, a, a third
7:50
and medium, third and short.
7:51
Could also be you have one bad series and you have a give-up draw play or two.
7:55
Third and 17 where he gets 18 yards?
7:56
Y- yeah.
7:57
Yeah.
7:57
And you, you end up at 20 yards in a, in a hurry, so I think that's
8:00
a, a great bet out of the gate.
8:02
A f- nice safe first down bet.
8:04
Well, he's smart, folks.
8:05
He comes in with the hot stuff.
8:07
I'm gonna go with some, maybe some more dumb stuff
8:10
here, but I like this guy today.
8:11
I…
8:12
Tomorrow.
8:12
I like Cooper Kupp tomorrow, and the reason being is we don't know what's
8:15
happening with Tory Horton just yet.
8:17
Again, we gotta wait and see, like, is he in?
8:20
We know we got Shaheed.
8:21
We know about JSN, of course.
8:23
We know about Barnard.
8:24
We know about Arroyo.
8:26
All those things being said, the Patriots secondary depth is okay.
8:31
The linebackers, you know, they just got Gonzo back.
8:33
You know, he wasn't out, but he signs a big contract.
8:36
Carlton Davis, he, he's fine, but, like, there's not that much depth
8:40
there and the, the linebackers are…
8:43
I don't think…
8:44
Spillane's good.
8:45
I think there's not that much there beyond that for the Patriots.
8:48
So a player like Kupp who could find zones, sit down in zones
8:51
this one for me is easy squeazy.
8:53
I got him get a f- three plus receptions, so three measly receptions
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at minus 132 to get out of the gate.
9:01
I think Kupp is gonna get four to five receptions this game, carry on the
9:06
kinda the nice end to his season that he had, and just cash this easy one early.
9:11
Wilson, do you see Kupp getting at least three receptions tomorrow?
9:15
You know what?
9:16
I don't know, you guys were probably watching Hard Knocks, but, but with
9:19
that, barely tank top that he was bearing, wearing, he better be putting
9:23
up those kinds of numbers walking around- Yes… the facility with that on.
9:26
But listen, he was, he was the lead receiver in the Super Bowl, six for 61.
9:30
He's a dependable guy.
9:31
I, I like three plus the number.
9:35
I would maybe like to be a little closer to even odds, but I think
9:38
it's, it's a safe shot, out of the, out of the gates for you.
9:41
Thank you.
9:42
I thought about teasing it to four plus, but I was like, you know, eh, don't
9:45
gotta be greedy with the first bet.
9:47
Drive it out there like we did at Topgolf today.
9:49
Yeah.
9:49
Get it on the green, which is nice.
9:50
Yeah.
9:51
I, you know, I don't think it's a terrible bet, and I could see if the Seahawks are
9:56
trying to work deep down field, I imagine that the Patriots are gonna play a lot of
9:59
two high stuff throughout the game, which means you're gonna get to some of the
10:02
underneath stuff, which means you're gonna get to Kupp, which means you could get
10:05
to that three receptions pretty quickly.
10:07
as, before we move on to bet number two here, I kinda wanted to
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look at Papa Ted's, parlay here.
10:12
Uh-huh.
10:13
that, this is, this is extra spicy, and I, I, I'm here for it.
10:17
Careful, careful.
10:17
He's got a, a four-leg parlay with the Hawks plus three and a half points
10:22
Price in anytime TD, Sam with two passing touchdowns, and JSN with 80 plus yards
10:28
and that's for a monster plus 840.
10:30
Papa Ted, that's a lot of fun.
10:32
Papa Ted, if that happens, we're having a good day.
10:34
That's a spicy day right there, Papa Ted.
10:36
I hope that, I hope that comes true.
10:38
A lot's gotta go right, but that's why you're getting plus 840.
10:40
I dig it.
10:41
Wilson, you're up on second down, bud.
10:42
Take it away.
10:44
Well, you guys, being back on here with you for Blue Friday Bets, formerly
10:48
known as PNW Prop Stars, I decided to harken back to our very first episode.
10:54
If you guys remember, this was the first game of the Geno
10:56
Smith era, Seahawks v Broncos.
10:58
What a memorable game.
10:59
Didn't write back.
11:00
That was the best.
11:01
All that good stuff.
11:02
And in that game I actually hit a fail Mary, and my, very first fail
11:07
Mary in the history of the show was a Colby Parkinson anytime touchdown.
11:10
That's right.
11:12
Yes.
11:12
So I- I'm going back, I'm going back to the well with a lot of tight end bets the
11:17
rest of the way here, and I'll start with the only offensive touchdown score for
11:22
the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, AJ Barner.
11:24
AJ, let's go.
11:24
We've been hearing all kinds of chatter about him all off-season.
11:27
This is the year that he really breaks out.
11:29
the emphasis on tight ends in the, in the new Seahawks offense.
11:34
So I like Barner 25 plus receiving yards at minus 112.
11:37
Again, kinda similar to the Holani bet.
11:39
Basically even, a nice low number to, to root for over the course of the game.
11:44
Oh, I, I, I'm gonna jump in and just say I love that bet.
11:47
Minus 112 is fine.
11:50
That's pretty close to even.
11:51
And with a dude like Barner, that could be a, that could be a single reception.
11:55
He gets down a seam route, you know, rumbles, stumbles a little bit, or we're
11:58
talking two catches and he's cashing.
12:01
Wilson, you're smart for a reason, dude.
12:02
I, I dig that one.
12:04
Yeah, I think the logic, kinda looking at Fleury's background and knowing that
12:07
he comes from the tight end room, and knowing that the primary fullback in
12:12
Utes is hurt and out for the year- Yeah
12:14
it makes more sense to me that they're gonna try to work that tight end group
12:18
and work them in a little bit more in kind of response to the idea that
12:22
there's no Utes to lean on there and get into, like, 22 or 21 personnel.
12:26
So, I, I really like that.
12:28
I think it's, totally attainable.
12:31
the, you know, I mean, get conservative on the odds, Wilson.
12:34
Like, way to play it safe.
12:38
… you know, just knock it down the middle.
12:39
Just you wait.
12:39
Win the week.
12:39
Just you wait.
12:40
I love it.
12:40
Look, I don't really dig the Fleury is a tight ends coach
12:44
therefore tight ends will flourish.
12:46
I just don't think the logic's there, 'cause he, he's coached everything.
12:49
And he happ- Of course
12:49
he happened to be tight ends coach last.
12:52
I just like the bet because I think AJ Barner will exploit what are okay
12:56
tight ends, I mean, okay linebackers.
12:58
Okay.
12:59
Yeah.
12:59
The whole, the whole D.
13:00
They're okay.
13:00
They're thin there, too.
13:00
I mean- Yeah… past their, their first two linebackers- Spin it… there's
13:03
not much there after Splain, and, I can't remember the, the second
13:07
linebacker on the inside there.
13:08
Well, we got a lot here.
13:09
Was it Tim T- Tim Boski?
13:10
Tim Boski, man.
13:11
Tim Boski.
13:11
999 super chat.
13:13
Tank top out of the 1980s.
13:16
I love that.
13:16
I, I love it.
13:17
And that's a great description of, Cooper Kupp's look on Hard Knocked.
13:21
Look, so- Appreciate that… for my second down bet
13:23
here, Clinton- Oh, you're gonna go.
13:24
You're gonna just l- you're not gonna go before me?
13:26
Well, don't I still not have honors for winning last year-
13:28
No, no… kicking your ass?
13:29
No, it, it rotates Oh, no, go ahead.
13:31
No, after you.
13:31
It rotates.
13:32
It rotates.
13:33
Okay.
13:33
Yeah.
13:33
Cool, cool, cool.
13:34
All right.
13:34
Cool, cool, cool.
13:34
So look, I, I, I'm in…
13:36
I'm kind of loving our new running back, where I love the Holani pick, but I also
13:41
do trust one Brady Henderson when he talks about, Jadarian Price getting lots
13:45
of, lots of looks, lots of touches Ooh.
13:49
I hope everybody's…
13:50
Everybody…
13:51
Are you with us?
13:51
Yeah.
13:52
Wilson, can you hear us?
13:53
Can you hear me?
13:53
Sure can.
13:54
Okay, good.
13:55
Good.
13:55
Good news.
13:56
Sorry, that was just the, George Holani truthers
13:59
cutting in to- I know, right?
14:01
We're gonna see max headroom pretty soon if you know that.
14:03
Oh, here we go.
14:04
Hold on.
14:04
There it is.
14:05
Okay.
14:05
Hey, all right.
14:06
We're back.
14:06
We're sure back.
14:06
I don't know what happened there.
14:07
Brandan's laptop.
14:08
Yeah, this, this is gonna be the best- Yeah… the best bet ever.
14:10
So look, I like Holani, and I like Holani to compile a day here.
14:14
Plus 130 parlay, 14 rushing attempts, so not nothing.
14:19
But, you know, 14 times the guy's gonna touch the ball.
14:22
50-plus yards on the ground or more.
14:25
Vegas says he's gonna get over 50 yards, and Vegas says he's gonna
14:29
run the ball more than 14 times.
14:31
So I'm taking two things that Vegas says are likely to happen
14:34
smashing them together at plus 130.
14:37
They spent a first-round pick on this guy, and I think there's a reason he was
14:41
wrapped in a bubble the entire pre-season, 'cause they know what they got.
14:45
Yeah, and I think if you're gonna take a risk of wearing out the rookie
14:48
early, you do that because you know that Charbonnet is gonna come back
14:52
early-ish in the season, right?
14:53
So you can afford to get Jadarian Price out there and
14:56
run him a little bit more often.
14:58
Also, if you're, Brian Fleury, I think you're gonna want to show that you
15:03
really do want to establish a run game.
15:05
That was something that Kubiak did great last year in terms of throughout the
15:09
course of the early part of the season, even if the running game wasn't uber
15:12
effective, they were able to actually get out there and just hand the ball off and
15:17
keep the chains moving at the very least, and even if it wasn't the most efficient.
15:21
So yeah, I think all that's in range, and at plus 130, you get into plus odds.
15:25
Solid.
15:26
Not bad, not bad.
15:27
Yeah.
15:27
So opposite end of where you went with Holani.
15:29
I love that bet earlier, but can we have both, Wilson, is the question.
15:33
Can we have Holani and can we have Price both hitting it?
15:36
We absolutely can, and I like your bet, too.
15:38
I think, I think it's very feasible that, both backs hit those numbers.
15:43
I like it.
15:43
Okay.
15:44
Now, now you go.
15:45
And- Well, I'm excited about this-… because I'm excited about this player.
15:48
This is the one player on the Seahawks team that I think is going to get
15:53
the type of recognition for what he's done in the past and also for the
15:58
ascension that he is on for this year.
16:00
I truly believe that Byron Murphy II is going to be first team
16:04
All-Pro at the end of this year.
16:06
He's gonna be thought of as the new Aaron Donald, even though the old Aaron Donald
16:09
decided to dust him off and come back.
16:12
And then not go to Australia.
16:13
That's right.
16:13
Stupid.
16:13
I'm also aware of the fact that, they took Mr.
16:17
Wilson, their left guard, who, Riley Mills, destroyed, and
16:22
moved him into center for this year.
16:25
And that puts him, in line to face up against What, nose tackles?
16:30
Yes.
16:30
Byron Murphy plays the nose tackle.
16:32
He also plays the three technique, and he's gonna maybe do a little
16:34
bit of that more this year.
16:35
But I got Byron Murphy with one plus sack for plus 228 for spicy-… so that we
16:42
actually have somebody with some balls making some bets on this podcast today.
16:47
High variance, high balls.
16:48
Wilson, is that enough to bet on a sack from our interior
16:54
lineman there, Byron Murphy?
16:56
You know, I was looking at the sack bets, before we got on the show, and
17:00
that was one that really appealed to me.
17:01
I think, after what we all saw what Riley Mills did to that poor, poor
17:06
man-… in front of hundreds of millions of people, no one can
17:10
feel confident in the, interior of the Patriots' offensive line.
17:13
So I like this bet.
17:14
If I was gonna choose one player to get a sack, it would probably
17:17
be Byron Murphy in this game.
17:19
so I like where Adam's head's at.
17:21
Okay.
17:21
All right.
17:21
So that wraps up, down number two.
17:23
I got on down three.
17:24
I'm sticking with the sack numbers here.
17:27
Wilson, pop quiz for you.
17:29
Do you remember in the Super Bowl who got two sacks?
17:32
He had two sacks during the regular season, but he had two sacks in
17:36
the Super Bowl, and he likes to wear short, short, short shorts.
17:39
Short, short, shorts.
17:40
Who am I talking about?
17:41
Well, the short shorts just confirms it.
17:43
That's of course Derick Hall of, of m- massive truck-… and incredible
17:48
survival We learned a lot about that in Hard Knocks, so He does
17:52
he does, he does it all, right?
17:53
So, and a bit of a jokester, too.
17:55
So yours was 228, correct?
17:57
Yeah.
17:57
Mm-hmm.
17:57
Plus 228.
17:58
Okay.
17:58
So I got Derick Hall just to record one sack, not two like
18:01
the Super Bowl when we…
18:02
By the way, guys, we won the Super Bowl.
18:04
It wasn't the Rams.
18:05
The Rams didn't win last year, and they didn't- What?
18:07
Yeah, they didn't already win this year.
18:09
But they already won this year.
18:09
I know.
18:10
It's crazy.
18:10
Oh.
18:11
But D- Derek- How can that be true?
18:14
They were just all confused.
18:15
They were on 16 minutes.
18:16
They won the Super Bowl, obviously.
18:17
But anyway, I got Derick Hall at plus 280 to get home once.
18:21
Pats are still, you know, it…
18:23
Yes, they got Tucker now, but he hasn't played in a, a long while.
18:27
Moses on the outside, he's about 96 years old this week, I think.
18:30
Yeah.
18:31
So look, I like Derick Hall's motor.
18:33
I always liked Derick Hall, and, and I think he just continues
18:37
on from what he was doing.
18:39
Now, I know that game's a long time ago, Wilson, but I just like the
18:43
concept of last year, Derick Hall had a sack in the first game against the
18:47
Niners, and it got called back on a lame-ass holding downfield that
18:52
had nothing to do with the play.
18:53
It wasn't even a hold.
18:54
I like Hall to get out early with that new money.
18:57
That money will talk, and he's gonna get a sack at plus 280.
19:01
You say you like Murphy the most.
19:03
Do you have room in your heart for a Hall sack?
19:05
I sure do.
19:06
I mean, all you gotta do is tell him Brady Russell's in the backfield, and
19:08
he'll probably get three of them, so.
19:12
Either that, either that or Mike Macdonald.
19:13
Yeah.
19:14
Yeah.
19:14
See, I, I, I kinda visualize it just a little bit different.
19:17
I f- I feel like, who does Derek Hall go up against, or at least
19:20
did in the Super Bowl quite a bit?
19:22
Was that Will Campbell?
19:23
Yeah.
19:23
Yeah, yeah.
19:24
Will Campbell, with his tiny- Oh… T-Rex arms, like- Yeah
19:27
really struggled with the long arm of the Hall.
19:30
The levers.
19:30
And, That's pretty good.
19:31
Like, yeah.
19:32
That's pretty good.
19:32
Thank you.
19:33
I, I worked on that for about half a second.
19:34
So
19:36
at the end of the day, I, I really do, when I look through the sack
19:39
numbers, Clinton- Uh-huh I went with Byron Murphy because my love for
19:43
Byron Murphy cannot be contained.
19:45
Sure.
19:45
But the Derick Hall bet, I think that's a really good one if
19:48
you're going with sack numbers.
19:49
And I think Will Campbell will continue to struggle with the
19:51
length and strength of Mr.
19:53
Hall, whether he's in short shorts or regular Seahawks pants.
19:56
All right, length, strength, that means you're up now on your third down bet.
20:00
Adam, go.
20:01
Oh, I'm feeling the need, boys.
20:03
I'm feeling the need for Shaheed.
20:05
Look, I've got this, my third down bet, in honor of the, Princetonian
20:10
of Parlays here joining us.
20:11
I'm going with a Wilson 300.
20:13
I've got Rashid Shaheed to be an anytime TD score, a plus 330.
20:19
Sam Darnold and Rasheed have been working on their, ability to connect deep and
20:24
kind of build that chemistry that really didn't show up, towards the end of
20:28
the season when Shaheed joined the team.
20:31
And they're gonna connect for one long one.
20:33
It's gonna be a, a tutty, plus 330.
20:35
Ooh, all right, so very spicy.
20:37
That's a spicy 300 there plus Wilson.
20:40
Oh.
20:40
I have a take on this, but I wanna hear yours first.
20:43
You know, we can't…
20:44
You know, these are…
20:45
At plus 330, it's like, okay, maybe it happens, maybe it does not.
20:49
But- The Patriots' secondary with Davis back there, they're kinda old also a
20:54
little bit back there, their safeties too.
20:56
Can Shaheed get behind for a, a deep one?
20:59
What do you think?
21:00
I mean, there are few players in the NFL that can, that can match
21:03
the kinda speed that Shaheed has.
21:06
So I think this is one of those ones where 330, you might wanna
21:09
get a little bit more out of that.
21:11
But it's, it's an exciting 330 because if he scores, that
21:14
means it's a 60 or a 70-yarder.
21:16
Ooh.
21:16
And he's just, you know, burning a hole in the secondary with his wheels.
21:21
Oh.
21:21
So I, I, I would think of all the bets we've talked about so far, this
21:25
might be the most satisfying one for me if it does end up hitting.
21:27
Let me, let me level this up for you, Wilson, and for you.
21:31
So this is how it could be this much more exciting.
21:33
The Patriots, when they had the 53-man cutdown, they swapped out like 9 or
21:38
10 dudes, and those are the kinds of guys that play special teams.
21:42
So this bet for Shaheed to score a touchdown isn't just maybe
21:46
catching a long pass- Yeah… from Sam and take it to the house.
21:49
This could be the San Francisco Rice-A-Roni treat again, boys, and he
21:53
takes one back nice and early, and Shaheed cashes and Lumen's going nuts because the
21:58
Patriots have zero depth on special teams.
22:01
'Cause if you did, you wouldn't swap nine guys when you cut down to 53.
22:06
You would just do what the Seahawks did, which is, like, trade a guy, one guy.
22:09
Yeah, no, it's a, it's a great point.
22:11
yeah, so I'm in.
22:13
I'll, all in f- on Shaheed here.
22:14
I see in the comments here from Motive that, he didn't believe
22:17
Will C- Campbell was the starting left tackle at this point.
22:20
ESPN still has him listed as the starting left tackle.
22:23
That's what my information says, but maybe, maybe the rookie is the
22:26
guy that they're putting out there.
22:27
I don't know.
22:28
Maybe I'm wrong on that.
22:28
No, C- Campbell's still at left tackle is my understanding, and
22:30
then Wilson's sliding to center.
22:33
Yes.
22:33
So Wilson's going from guard to center, but my understanding is
22:35
Campbell is still out on the lonely island out there o- at left tackle.
22:39
I believe.
22:40
If we're wrong, you know, then we'll say we're wrong.
22:43
You know, when you guys keep saying that Wilson's moving to center, I, I just get a
22:47
little bit of a pang in my heart thinking-
22:48
boy, I really don't wanna go out there and face those guys.
22:51
No?
22:52
No, you're not looking forward to looking up and seeing Byron Murphy and just
22:55
chosen across his neck-… knowing that he's chosen you to put in the dirt?
23:00
Yeah.
23:00
I, I choo, choo, choose you.
23:01
All right, so wait, keeping math, math here, you just did your third down.
23:05
Third down bet.
23:06
We fin- that was finish third down.
23:07
Yep.
23:07
Yeah, we all did?
23:08
Yep, yep.
23:08
Okay, so we're on a fail Mary.
23:09
Oh, no, Wilson's got third down, yeah.
23:10
Wilson third down, perfect.
23:11
Like I said, Wilson, take it.
23:13
You guys, you know that third down is my go-to spot with the
23:16
plus 300, trying to skip me.
23:18
Careful.
23:19
But get ready, I have a plus 600.
23:21
We're doubling it up this week.
23:23
Ooh.
23:23
Double.
23:23
And I'm going, I'm going with a different anytime touchdown, tight end theme.
23:27
Elijah Arroyo, is this, is this, is this a Elijah Arroyo breakout game?
23:32
I hope so.
23:33
We've also heard a lot of chatter about him all off season, a lot
23:36
of people saying, wow, he's…
23:37
Aside from maybe Montorie Foster, the pass catcher that really wowed people at camp.
23:42
I don't love anytime touchdown bets, as I think we've talked
23:45
about, to no end on this show.
23:47
They can often be very random and frugal.
23:50
but ultimately, I gotta swing for the fences while I'm here, and, honor
23:55
Colby Parkinson, who of course we forgive for, going to the, LA Rams.
23:59
Do we?
24:00
Are we sure?
24:02
He's just really tall, and tall people sometimes, they, they
24:04
don't know what's happening.
24:05
Yeah.
24:05
Sometimes, sometimes.
24:06
That's true.
24:06
I, I wouldn't know.
24:07
But look- Yeah, no, it gets dizzying up there… 6, 600 for
24:10
Arroyo, that's a spicy meatball.
24:12
He's a hot player.
24:13
Now, can the move tight end work in Seattle?
24:16
Will the tight ends coach?
24:18
I, we're gonna see plenty of 12, 12 personnel.
24:21
We know this, we know this.
24:23
Does Arroyo sne- like, in the preseason, he sneaks up the backfield, Tennessee
24:27
decides to not cover him, touchdown.
24:29
He's got six easy.
24:31
Not sure it'll be this easy this time, but plus 600's enticing, Adam.
24:34
plus 600, man.
24:36
Arroyo's worth taking a swing on just because of the young players that you
24:40
think of that are kinda set to ascend this year, Arroyo definitely has to be
24:44
at the top of, or near the top of the list of all the young Seahawks players.
24:48
I'm high on Arroyo.
24:49
I think he could be a legit weapon this year that changes
24:53
the look of this offense.
24:55
And look, man, I love wish casting things into existence, and Arroyo's
24:59
ascension is one of those things.
25:01
So, yeah, I love it.
25:02
Plus 600.
25:03
Plus, also too, that's a really difficult bet to hit, and so it increases my
25:07
likely odds of winning, which I like.
25:09
So, I'm in, Wilson.
25:10
You do like that.
25:11
Now we're up on our Fail of Mary.
25:12
You get honors again.
25:14
Remember, folks, it must be plus 1200 or longer odds to qualify, so don't
25:19
bring the weak ass you-know-what.
25:21
What do you got?
25:21
All righty.
25:22
So, one of the things that we witnessed in the Super Bowl last year
25:27
was the dark side defense absolutely smothering the Patriots offense, and
25:32
really for, more than a half.
25:34
And it really felt like that was gonna end up, being a shutout
25:38
when it was all said and done.
25:40
You heard the defense talking about, goose eggs, you
25:42
know, in the mic'd up stuff.
25:44
And I think it's something that when it happened, when the Patriots scored
25:48
those garbage time points to make them feel good about their place in the
25:51
world, the defense was pissed.
25:54
Mm-hmm.
25:54
And I think they're gonna take it out on this Patriots team.
25:58
And so I got the Seahawks to win in a shutout against the Patriots at plus 2500.
26:04
Wilson, take it away.
26:05
What do you got?
26:06
Oh, that would be sweet.
26:08
I mean-… I, I, I get what you're saying about I was angry.
26:11
I can't imagine, you know- Yeah.
26:12
… being on the field.
26:13
and, you know, I think, like I said, I feel like the Patriots are
26:19
just shaking in their boots going into this contest, so I would not be
26:22
surprised if they laid one out there.
26:24
Look, it's plus 2500 for a reason.
26:26
Not likely, but oh-so-delicious if it does happen.
26:30
Now- Yes… if it gets to, like, quarter three and we're, like, you
26:33
know, six minutes into quarter three and we're still pitching a shutout
26:36
I'm gonna pinch you, in a good way.
26:38
Yeah.
26:39
Yeah.
26:39
I'm gonna pinch you.
26:39
I'm gonna pinch you.
26:39
I think it's cosmic justice- I'm gonna buy-… if, if it happens… I'm gonna
26:43
buy you a beer- Yeah… and pinch you.
26:43
That, the pro- Ooh… two promises.
26:44
Promise?
26:44
Promises, promises.
26:45
Ooh.
26:45
Right there.
26:46
All right.
26:47
Wilson, that's you next, bud.
26:49
Fail Mary.
26:49
I'll keep- First one of the year.
26:51
Yeah.
26:51
I'll keep it simple, guys.
26:52
you know I've been saying a lot about tight ends, a lot about Colby Parkinson.
26:56
I'm going back to Arroyo here.
26:58
hoping to double up on this one.
27:01
For him not to just have a touchdown, but to have the first touchdown of
27:04
the game- First, first… we're at plus 3,000, and that's- Ooh
27:06
been an act.
27:06
Sp- dude, I love the, I love the numerology here.
27:10
Yes.
27:11
He's, he's 10X-ing a Wilson 300 to plus 3,000.
27:14
I could see Arroyo, I could see Arroyo catching a little tight end dump and
27:17
then rumbling, stumbling, and just, you know, just getting into the end zone.
27:21
Why not?
27:21
He's a big man.
27:22
Oh, 1000%.
27:23
I feel one-upped a little bit, but that's fine.
27:25
… at plus 3,000.
27:27
I actually do love it because, you know, you're betting on long shot things
27:31
and Arroyo's talent is something that can cause long shot things to happen.
27:36
So I'm into it, Clinton.
27:37
I like it as well.
27:39
All right, last one here, Fail Mary, let's make it count.
27:42
Wilson, same wavelength that we're doubling up a little bit.
27:45
I had Cooper Kupp earlier in my, three plus reception bets to start things off
27:50
so I finish with same idea you had, dude.
27:53
I got Cooper Kupp with the first touchdown for the Seahawks on the
27:56
year, and the game at plus 1300.
27:59
Not quite as spicy for a dude who only scored twice in the
28:03
regular season last year.
28:05
I really don't…
28:05
You know, I don't give a damn.
28:06
I could see the man getting open and catching something o- over the weak
28:11
ass Patriots linebackers, work in the middle of the field, Sammy Bear
28:16
going like, "Read one's not there.
28:18
Read two is there.
28:19
Fire the ball into Cooper Kupp's gut," as he just kinda careens
28:23
into the end zone for six.
28:25
Yeah.
28:25
There's a…
28:26
Your bets here kinda work hand in glove, right?
28:29
You had the Jadarian Price bet where, you know, 14 carries, having s- s- success
28:33
on the ground, piling up the yards.
28:35
If that comes to fruition- Wow… and the Seahawks run game is looking good
28:39
that is gonna make those linebackers bite on all the play action after Sam gets
28:43
back under center and runs that type of offense that we saw under Kubiak, that I
28:47
think will be carried over under Fleury.
28:50
And when that happens, who exploits that area of the field from this
28:55
receiving corps more than anybody?
28:57
That's Kupp.
28:58
And- I think, I think this is in range.
29:01
And you've had some success in the past with the first time TD scorer thing, which
29:04
is annoying, but I'm also rooting for you.
29:06
All right, that was fantastic.
29:08
Wilson, what are you doing for the game tomorrow?
29:09
Obviously, we are here.
29:11
We're gonna be there.
29:12
We're gonna be live at the game.
29:13
You're chilling in California.
29:14
That's okay, 'cause you gotta get ready for that Australia game to
29:17
watch the Rams hopefully lose to the stupid Niners, for the first time.
29:21
But what are you doing, man?
29:22
I always wanna check in.
29:23
Are you getting some wings?
29:24
Are you hanging out with buddies?
29:25
What happens in Cali when you gotta watch a Seahawks game?
29:28
I'm building some furniture, and then hopefully by the time I'm done
29:31
with that, I'll be able to plug in the TV and put it on top of that.
29:34
So that is my plan for before the game tomorrow.
29:39
Damn, where'd you buy your lumber?
29:41
IKEA.
29:43
IKEA?
29:43
Then you're not building something, you're assembling something.
29:46
How dare you commit fraud on the Sea Hawkers podcast.
29:49
I can't believe this.
29:50
But, Thank you for- Sounds like an awesome time… thank you
29:52
for checking my, my vocabulary there, you're absolutely right.
29:54
Yeah, yeah.
29:55
W- Wilson, that still feels like a build to me.
29:57
This feels like a build to us.
29:59
Look, if you dig this, hit the likes, hit the subs, and tomorrow's
30:03
gonna be a awesome freaking time.
30:06
Winners get sprinkles.
30:07
We got the banner getting raised up there to celebrate our last championship as we
30:12
go after our next championship, 'cause we're about to run this forward, Adam.
30:16
We surely are, man.
30:17
And I think with that- There's only one thing left to say.
30:20
Go Hawks.
30:22
Go Hawks.