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What to Expect from the Buffalo Bills Offense in 2023 | DC · Disguised Coverage

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And thirty eight. All Bills can win it here, Mike puts it down,
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the kick is on the way out and he's got on the bill.
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Good one one one they won Party one thirty eighth. Incredible, what a
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combat by my Bill Jackson. Bills perfect record on the line right here,
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keeping eide touchdown, Kyle Williams touchdown. Amazing, unbelievable. They put in
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william who's hats the full back and he scores a touchdown. It's wealthier to
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face tackle. What's good, folks, Family Friends, loved One's Enemies for
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Enemies Wizards which is Muggles Mudblood's People of Middle Earth. To another episode of
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disguise Coverage, the only podcast in existence that gives you an equal amount of
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blueberries in each muffin, and presented by the best pizza in Buffalo, New
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York, One Pipe Pizza. You can find the online menu in the episode
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show notes whether you're here on YouTube or whichever podcasting app or platform you are
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listening to this show. Who add to cough a little bit there? In
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tonight's episode, we're going to dive into a high level overview of the Buffalo
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Bills offense in terms of what you expect from an identity perspective, a philosophy
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perspective, a personnel perspective, usage rate, snap shares, all that kind
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of stuff the XS and knows of what this team looks to be in twenty
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twenty three. I'm gonna do a similar piece on the defense coming in the
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next couple of weeks, all with the idea of kind of setting the table
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as we've done at different points throughout this offseason, you know, sitting the
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table going into free agency, setting the table from there going into the draft,
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kind of building the foundation for pieces as we start to deep dive and
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go forward. So I'm gonna set the table for the offense in this episode,
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deep dive further into it in the coming weeks, set the table for
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the defense. Do that same piece all as training camp starts to ramp up
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and we get into OTAs and rookie mini camp. I'm saying those things out
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of orders. They'll start to come to pass over the next several weeks,
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including this month of May where we have some practices and get togethers for the
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Buffalo Bills. So again, this episode will be a table setting of sorts,
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diving into you know, like I mentioned, all the philosophical pieces there
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and identity pieces and personnel and xs and os and scheme and all that stuff,
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because the Bills have made a concerted effort towards improving and or at the
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very least reinforcing the offensive side of the ball this offseason. We saw it
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immediately in free agency with the addition of Connor McGovern, with the addition of
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Deonte Hardy and Trent Shecherfield, and then David Edwards, and then you know,
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the granted the board fell this way in the draft, but the addition
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of Dalton Kincaid and the addition of o Cyrus Torrents and even potentially you know
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later in day three with the drafting of Justin Shorter, somewhat of a concerted
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effort this offseason again in either upgrading depending on how you view these players,
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but at the very least reinforcing the offensive side of the ball. And when
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you get a bunch of new faces and new pieces that are dropped into the
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mix, I think it's important before you know again you deep dive into it
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fully, which we tend to always do here on the show. Anyway,
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I think it's important to kind of reset a little bit and set the table,
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and so what I want to do in this episode is break down several
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pieces to expect from the Buffalo Bill's offense in twenty twenty three, again not
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necessarily position groupings, but looking at pieces holistically, kind of a deep dive
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overview at the same time. And all those things are kind of oxymoronic,
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but that's what we're going to get into tonight. I appreciate you folks starting
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to jump into the chat. I see Andrew, Hi, Andrew, I
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appreciate you. I love how Andrew already threw out a buzzword. This would
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be if there was like a disguised coverage bingo board, multiplicity would one thousand
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percent beyond it. Well done, Well done, Andrew, appreciate your Rick,
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Rick saying Hi, go Bills. I'm excited for the coming season,
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as am I in addition to being very paranoid and nervous because that's just who
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I am as a fan after being a Bills fan for years and years and
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years. Sophia appreciate you always being here. She knows this would be another
4:47
bingo turn. You could combine them all as one in one Rock Paper Scissors.
4:50
I feel like I say probably every single episode if not every other,
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at the very least, What's up r J, What's up Sarah? What's
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up Mike. I like Roy's comment here that says, philosophy confuses me,
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and keep it simple. I'll try, I'll try. I want to mention
5:06
this too. Roy says it already says I sense the power of the tree
5:10
through my TV screen and they put a smiley face. I'm still life's been
5:14
crazy. I slacked a little bit on the tree. We're still in the
5:17
Easter setup and the draft celebrations set up with the tree. But the Easter
5:23
setup is kind of my favorite. I love a little like snowboarding gnomaction there.
5:27
I like the rabbits. I like the Easter tree that's on the shelf.
5:30
So I'm digging it for a little bit, but probably will switch the
5:33
tree either for the film room tomorrow or at the very least for disguise coverage
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next week to be more of a Memorial Day theme. Tree is that is
5:41
the holiday for the month of May, or maybe some other pastels from Mother's
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Day piece, But that's really this week. But I appreciate you Roy recognizing
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the tree. It's very important piece of the show. Jubbed another disguise coverage,
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buzzword slash, bingo board, identify or chess piece. Absolutely absolutely,
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oh John. With a really good comment, John says, kudos to the
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highly educated chat on this channel. I'm extremely proud of the chat that shows
6:05
up every single week for disguised coverag. Like I say, especially when I
6:10
do the solo episodes and I don't have a guest. Having you folks in
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the chat, just seeing the activity is always awesome. But seeing the back
6:17
and forth with one another, the questions, comments and everything for myself and
6:20
for each other. But to John's point, like the high level of it,
6:25
it's things that I genuinely want to bring up. It's not just like,
6:27
well, you know, let me bring up something just to kind of
6:29
appease the masses. Like Yeah, it's a really cool thing to see the
6:33
level of insight or kind of thirst for knowledge that exists in the chat on
6:40
the show. So it's pretty awesome to see a good call out. Good
6:44
call out. Oh. Nikki says the Bills are about to throw dynamite this
6:46
year. I like the connection there to the Rock Paper Scissors Dennis does.
6:50
Thus another pieces of Way says, you need to be able to the lizard
6:53
and spot too. I should just rename the show Rock Paper Scissors. That's
6:56
really where I'm starting to go. But good times, good times. As
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always, as we start to dive into the first topic here, you know,
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kind of piggybacking on that point with the chat, any questions, thoughts,
7:06
comments, concerns on any of the points that I bring up. Anything
7:10
that's in the back of your mind, anything that you have going on at
7:14
all, throw it up into the chat. I will bring up anything and
7:16
everything as I physically or humanly possibly can. As always, super chats do
7:20
get priority one because I respect the monetary donation too, because I see the
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color and the flash of color and the pop of color that comes with the
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super chat, and it takes my eyes away from my notes and as always
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comment it was mentioned earlier. If you aren't here, whether watching live now
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or watching later, please please, please, and thank you. If you're
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please, please and thank you. Drop Alke on this video. It is
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extremely helpful and goes a long way. If you're listening, I'm one of
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the podcasting after platforms. Please rate and review. Wherever you're listening or watching,
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please subscribe. It's all greatly appreciated. Let's dive into the first topic
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here for this episode again looking at things from a holistic, high level perspective,
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philosophically, from an identity perspective, personnel usage, all of those pieces,
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and really kind of putting together what we can expect from the Buffalo Bill's
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offense in a variety of ways in the twenty twenty three season. The first
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piece I spoke about it last week. Oh, I'm gonna stop here,
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Sophia. Thank you very much. I think you're earlier for being here.
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Thank you very much for the super chat. I appreciate you, she says,
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Aunt, what is your football playing history? Thanks? I played ball
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in high school. Um, to kind of keep it's a long story,
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to keep it short. Some things went sideways for me from an off the
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field perspective towards the end of my high school career. And it led to
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me not playing ball in college but kind of just stuck with it, and
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uh kind of led me to this point, the connections I made through you
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know, playing ball from there and then what I would have made going through
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and just kind of built it all together. Good question, fair point.
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Let's dive into it. So the twelve personnel piece, Oh, Nikki,
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let me bring up this coming from Nicky, Nikki says, I don't know
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if you guys have went over how McDermott uses different pieces to disguise this pressure,
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but I'd love to see a Panther's breakdown. Nikki. I don't remember
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what episode it was, but in an episode of The Film Room that myself
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and Eric Turner did, oh I think before maybe February or March, we
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focused a lot on what Sean McDermott was as a defensive coordinator with the Carolina
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Panthers, and we broke down game tape from their Super Bowl season in twenty
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fifteen. So check that out. Like, I don't remember what it was,
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but literally just searched the cover one Film Room and the titles and there's
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something about McDermot in the defense and it's pretty sure it's from march Um.
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But we definitely broke down uh Panther's tape, So that's absolutely there. Um
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Oh Roy already coming in saying it all hinges on Dorsey. Oh Nikki says
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in the episode, I was there. I think it only caught the end
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of some eagles. Yeah, go back. There's a whole bunch of it's
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it's it's Panther's tape. We're showing like the disguised fronts and the different pressure
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packages and safety blitzes and what he was doing with um simulated pressures and creepers,
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and they attack minded philosophy that McDermott had and Carolina, So definitely check
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that out. That episode is laden with that Roy saying, yeah, it
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all hinges on Ken Dorsey, and I think that's tied into this first there's
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first point. So I spoke about it a little bit last week with with
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Dalton Kincaid, UM, and I don't think it's any surprise at this point
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with the draft, With the drafting of Dalton Kincaid, however you view him,
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he is technically, you know, in actuality at tight end. So
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the twelve personnel usage is going to go up. But I wanted to talk
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about it a bit in terms of what it was past year and also how
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it ties to Ken Dorsey a little bit. So last year, the Buffalo
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Bills had a six percent usage rate for twelve personnel, which was thirty first
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in the NFL. Some sites will quantify it differently. I used SIS Sports
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and Folk Solutions, so that's where I got this number from. So again,
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a six percent usage rate in twenty twenty two. But like I've mentioned
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in previous episodes, they did have a seventeen percent twenty one personnel usage rate.
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So that's two running backs, so you're Reggie Gilliam and singletary Reggie Gilliam
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cook whatever, and that's seventeen percent twenty one personnel usage rate was the sixth
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most in the league. So that can get a little murky depending on how
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you quantify or qualify Reggie Gilliam. So because of that, like because Gilliam
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is kind of like part full back, part tight end, part h back,
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kind of jumbled up into one, and you can use him in some
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twelve personnel alignments and formations. But depending on how you slice it, again,
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that can get a little key. But when you combine the two,
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you know your pro personnel packages, which are your plays that either have two
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tight ends or two running backs on the field, your pro personnel. The
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Bills, you know that six percent in twelve, and that's seventeen percent in
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twenty one. That adds up to twenty three percent in terms of pro personnel.
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So the Bills are somewhat accustomed to using heavier quote unquote personnel packages,
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even going back to last year. So I wanted to say that because I
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think I've seen some thoughts and comments from different analysts or creators or fans that,
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well, you know, there's no way the Bills can just add Kincaid
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and completely change their offense. It would be a drastic change. It would
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be two significant YadA, YadA. I don't think using more twelve personnel in
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twenty twenty three would be some astronomical change or some astronomical change that makes it
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highly unlikely that the Bills see a significant uptick in twelve personnel. So let's
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just set the table from that standpoint. And I also want to talk about
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the three teams that were the highest in twelve personnel usage rate in twenty twenty
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two. You had the Seahawks, who were tied for first with a thirty
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percent usage rate in twenty twenty two. A good offense Geno Smith was revelation
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last year. And we know how Polton their passing attack was last year with
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Metcalfe and Lockett. They also had a strong run game with Kenneth Walker and
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Penny before he went down. So the Seahawks thirty percent usage rate in twenty
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twenty two out of twelve personnel, which was tied for first, they passed
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fifty four percent of the time when they were in twelve personnel. Also tied
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for first at thirty percent twelve personnel usage rate last year were the Green Bay
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Packers. However, they passed the ball forty two percent of the time,
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so when they went twelve, they were more of a run heavy team.
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And then third was the Kansas City Chiefs with a twenty eight percent twelve personnel
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usage rate in twenty twenty two. They passed the ball sixty six percent of
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the time out of that twelve personnel package. And I don't want to bring
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up the Chiefs just to bring up the Chiefs, but I think that's where
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you'll see a lot of similarity in terms of that twelve personnel usage rate in
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what it can be because Travis Kelsey, he is a tight end and he'll
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line up in line, he'll line up attach to the formation, he will
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block, but he gets moved around everywhere, like he'll get used as an
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ex receiver, he'll get put into the slot, he gets used as a
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chess piece. So even though he is a tight end, and when he's
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on the field, if you add another tight end, that's twelve personnel,
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the Chiefs get into non traditional twelve personnel plays in formations and alignments because of
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the presence of Travis Kelsey. I think the Bills similarly could operate in that
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way. And I think a lot of people still think of twelve personnels like,
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oh, that means more running the ball and more condensed formations and things
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are tight. The Chiefs did more of that last year, and I think
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it was part of the reason they were able to keep defenses off balance and
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really attack them in a variety of ways. But I don't think anybody would
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look at the Chiefs in turn of being like a sluggish offense or non explosive
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or non efficient or a non pass first offense. And they had a twenty
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eight percent twelve personnel usage rate last year and they passed the ball again sixty
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six percent of the time out of it. And part of that is because
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Travis Kelsey is that mismatch piece and you can be in twelve, but it
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causes all these mismatch problems like we talked about in last week's episode, which
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I'm gonna talk about a bit tonight. Let me stop. You got to
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bring up the super chat from White Town's King. White Towns King, I
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appreciate you and appreciate your super chat. Thank you very much for being here
15:31
and for the donation. And he says whose role. It's a good question
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whose role gets reduced more, the number three wide receiver or Knox, because
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I think Bean has a lot of belief in Hardy. Oh, this is
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a good question. I'm gone back and forth with it. I think I
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think a bit of both. But if I had to lean one way,
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I think the number three receiver would get reduced more. I think Dalton Kincaid
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is more of the wide receiver three than he is the tight end two or
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tight end one, if that makes sense, Like he is going to be
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tight end two, but I think his snapshare and his usage will creep more
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into the world of whoever is going to be that number three receiver, Like,
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I think you're going to see those eleven personnel formations that the Bills have
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used these last several years where they've been one of the league leaders and eleven
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personnel, But instead of Cole Beasley being in the slot, I think it's
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going to be Dalton Kinkaid. So I think that number three receiver the Deonte
16:33
Hardy's Khalil Shakier trench share field anybody else who was looking to potentially eat and
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see more snaps. I think Dalton Kinkaid's presence reduces their opportunity to get to
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the field a little bit. Again, I think it could cut into Knox
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in some way, shape or form, even just from perspective of, like,
16:53
you know, we're more comfortable giving Knox a breather on this play or
16:57
sitting them for a series to let him, you know, rest for a
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minute, because we're confident. We're more confident in Dalton Kinkaid allowing us to
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get to more of our playbook than we were last year with Tommy Sweeney or
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Quintin Morris. So I think it'll just from a logistical perspective, I think
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it'll eat into Knox a little bit. But I think that wide receiver three
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gets reduced more. I know, again he is a tight end. Dalton
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Kinkaid is a tight end. But I think for all intents and purposes,
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he is going to be that like slot receiver, number three receiver. He'll
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get used, you know, attached to the formation or you know, tight
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to the line or hipped off. But I think he, you know,
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that number three wide receiver is going to be reduced more with the drafting of
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Kinkaid. I don't necessarily think for twenty twenty three it was like Dawson Knox
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was should be worried, but I think everybody else who was a wide receiver
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on this team should be worried. Very good question, Very good question,
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Nikki said, I like being I think he forced a tight end on doorse
17:57
to have to use twelve. I think they may have potentially wanted to use
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more twelve personnel last year and they couldn't. I think maybe they hope for
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Oj Howard a little bit more and that didn't work out. Ken Dorsey's background,
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you know, Eric and I talked about it last week in the film
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room when he cut his teeth with the Carolina Panthers, that was a team
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that used a lot of twelve personnel. They used Greg Olsen and Ed Dixon
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regularly in route to a bunch of successful years in Carolina. They were a
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twelve personnel team. I think Ken Dorsey wants to be in twelve personnel and
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likes that mismatch opportunity. I think I don't think this was just like a
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Bean thing or a McDermott thing. I think this is a world that Ken
18:34
Dorsey is very comfortable with and I would not be surprised if he was banging
18:40
the drum for Kincaid as well. And again, even with Kinkaid being a
18:45
tight end, he can live and function as a slot receiver in space,
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so it's not just purely like we want this tight end. Like I think
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you could make the case that he was the best slot option or pass catching
18:56
option up there with Jackson Smith and Jigba in this draft. So very fair,
19:02
very fair. Oh, Jim coming in saying McKenzie had a fifty three
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snap share, fifty three percent snapshare, it's a good call. I don't
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I don't even remember as at this point. Let's keep going here. So
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yeah, like I mentioned Packers up there, Seahawks up there, the Chiefs
19:22
are up there, all differing in terms of how they used their twelve personnel.
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Chiefs were third with the twenty eight percent usage rate. The Seahawks and
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Packers were tied for first at thirty percent, but they all had differing levels
19:32
of how they passed the ball out of it and in terms of what kind
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of passes they use. But if you're just looking at it statistically, the
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Chiefs passed the ball sixty six percent out of sixty six percent of the time
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out of twelve personnel. Last year, the Seahawks passed at fifty four percent
19:45
of the time and the Packers passed at forty two percent of the time.
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Twelve personnel can be whatever you want it to be. You can use it
19:52
to be a run heavy team. You can run it to force defenses into
19:57
specific personnel packages. You can use it to be a power spread team.
20:03
You can use it in whichever way you want to in order to maximize the
20:07
roster and personnel that you have. In the case of the Bills, I
20:11
do expect their usage rate to go up here significantly, especially if you're just
20:15
looking at it from last year, where they had a six percent usage rate.
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I expect the Bills to be roughly in the twenty five percent range in
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twenty twenty three in terms of twelve personnel usage, which would put them around
20:26
the top five or into the top five if this were twenty twenty two.
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The big thing for me when it comes to the twelve personnel piece is I
20:37
expect the Bills to use twelve personnel. I expect their usage to vary from
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a formational or alignment perspective. I think you'll see them be again in twelve
20:48
personnel because Dalton Kincaid is a tight end, but I expect to see them
20:52
be in twelve personnel but lining up a more traditional eleven personnel looks. I
20:56
think they could also have both tight ends attached to the line of scrimmage to
21:00
create a seven man surface, or one tight end attached to the line of
21:06
scrimmage and be inline and the other tight end hipped off. I think you'll
21:10
see more tempo with their twelve personnel package. I think you'll see them run
21:14
the ball out of twelve personnel if defenses match with smaller nickel personnel. I
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think they'll increase their play action rate as well. Out of twelve personnel and
21:22
overall by extension, and I think they'll attack defenses with the pass if defenses
21:30
play them with single high coverage structures on the back end, when they use
21:33
twelve personnel in more heavier looks, or with the tight ends closer attached to
21:37
the line of scrimmage, or more condensed formations. We saw the Bills do
21:41
this two years ago against the Jets. They went with a bunch of twelve
21:45
personnel to force the Jets to come into single highs so they could attack them
21:48
with crossers and play action in New York two seasons ago. I think overall
21:52
how they use twelve personnel, I think it'll vary by opponent and or even
21:56
very unkind of like a microscale, like it could be dry by drive,
22:00
it could be quarter by quarter. I think you will see that variation.
22:03
But at the end of the day, I think it's going to be a
22:06
significant package. And I don't think that should be revelatory to anybody. Like
22:10
if whoever you take in the first round, you're usually expecting that person to
22:14
contribute with somewhat of a soonish timeline in terms of contribution. Right, even
22:19
though Dalton Kinkaid is a tight end, and it is tough for tight ends.
22:23
Like we talked about last week, it can be tougher for tight ends
22:26
to break through as rookies because not only do you have to be sound in
22:33
your knowledge of the playbook from a passing perspective, you know what route are
22:37
you running on this play? Do you have to read the coverage? Do
22:38
you have to make an adjustment based off of leverage or what you're seeing is
22:42
the pre to post that picture changing from a coverage standpoint. Not only do
22:45
you have to learn all that, you also have to know the past protections.
22:48
You also have to know the run blocking protections and scheme. There's all
22:52
these pieces that you have to know. So I do think that'll work against
22:56
Kinkaid a bit, But I think for all intents and purposes, like he's
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going to occupy a significant piece of the slot wide receiver role this year,
23:04
which means the Bills are going to be in more twelve personnel, and I
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think that's a really exciting piece. I talked about it last week in a
23:12
variety of ways. Eric and I talked about it in the film room.
23:15
I do expect the Bills to have a significant uptick in twelve personnel usage.
23:19
I would expect the Bills to be a top five twelve personnel team in twenty
23:26
twenty three, and I don't think that should be a surprise. And again,
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I also think what's key for that is don't get caught up in just
23:34
the pure like tight end piece of it or twelve personnel like you can do
23:38
anything you want with it. I think that's why I wanted to bring up
23:41
those numbers earlier. Like Seahawks and Packers tied for first to thirty percent twelve
23:45
personnel usage rate. The Chiefs tied for third, or well third but technically
23:49
like second, at a twenty eight percent usage rate, But all three teams
23:55
used it differently. The Packers passed it only forty two percent of the time
23:57
they were a run heavy team twelve personnel, The Seahawks past the fifty four
24:02
percent of the time. The Chiefs pasted it sixty six percent of the time.
24:06
You can take any formation that you want and use it however you want
24:11
to use it, So the Bills could be up I'm just making up.
24:15
In Week one, Bills could use a ton of twelve personnel, but they
24:18
could use it to go play action or attack vertically, or maybe they're in
24:22
twelve personnel, but they're going more spread and it's more two by two and
24:26
maybe they're in gun or maybe they're you know, Alan's under center with Dawson
24:30
Knox in line and Dalton Kincaid in the slot. Maybe the next week they're
24:36
using it in more condensed or traditional alignments and they're running it down somebody's throat.
24:40
It can be whatever you want. That is the beauty of a personnel
24:44
package like this, because it allows you to stay fluid, it allows you
24:48
to stay multiple, It allows you to access more of the menu without having
24:52
to change the page or turn the page. And again that's for a buzzword
24:57
here that everybody loves on the show Rock Paper Scissors. You're playing that game,
25:02
you're able to throw all three. I can't again really emphasize enough how
25:10
important it is to be able or how fun it can be to stay in
25:14
one personnel grouping and be able to get to anything out of that personnel grouping
25:18
when you don't have to change players or substitute and anybody in or out,
25:23
and you can run the ball successfully, you can pass from a condensed alignment
25:27
or formation, you can pass from a spread alignment. You can go deep,
25:32
you can work the intermediate, you can run option routes, you can
25:34
run mesh, you can run sale concepts like when you can get to almost
25:38
anything and everything that exists conceptually without having to change your personnel. It is
25:45
extremely hard to combat that. From a defensive perspective, It is extremely hard
25:51
to figure out what personnel grouping you need to use to match that. If
25:55
you're able to run the ball at a twelve personnel, the defense is like,
25:57
all right, cool, you know, maybe let's subout our nick corner.
26:00
Let's bring in a third safety. You're bringing a third linebacker. You
26:03
can see that from the booth, and all of a sudden be like,
26:06
oh, they're matching with more of a heavy look on defense. Cool,
26:10
let's switch it up. Let's go tempo, you know what. Let's attack
26:11
vertically. Let's pass the ball more. Let's get Dalton Kincaide matched up on
26:15
that third linebacker or that third safety because he doesn't have the coverage jobs to
26:18
go like it is. It's very exciting from a potential perspective. I love
26:23
Sophia's comment here. She says, except this year, it's a rock paper
26:26
dynamite. I like that. Well played, well played. You can again,
26:32
just because you have a like traditional personnel package doesn't mean you can't do
26:36
anything that you want with it. You can be as different as you want.
26:40
You can be as traditional as you want. I really wanted to use
26:42
what the Packers and Chiefs and Seahawks did kind of as a baseline to show
26:48
it can be whatever you want. You can be traditional and run heavy,
26:49
you can attack vertically. You can use it from a play action standpoint,
26:53
you can combine all three. You can use it to generate explosives. You
26:56
can use it to work the intermediate and maintain efficiency, or run the ball
27:00
or stay I had a schedule. The options are kind of limitless, and
27:07
again I think it'll vary by opponent. What is interesting is in twelve personnel
27:11
last year, Josh Allen was kind of met. Granted that twelve personnel last
27:17
year would have come with Dawson Knox and either Tommy Sweeney or Quentin Morris,
27:19
who, no disrespect, aren't to the level that Dalton Kincaide is at,
27:26
so I think that needs to be kept in mind. But there were thirty
27:29
eight quarterbacks last year who had at least twenty five passing attempts in twelve personnel
27:33
and of those thirty eight qbs. Josh Allen was sixteenth in EPA, he
27:38
was thirteenth in positive play percentage, and he was twenty fourth in passer rating,
27:42
so kind of the middle of the pack to a little lower than the
27:47
middle of the pack in twelve personnel last year. Now, some of that
27:49
is tied to the personnel that would have been used in those moments. Some
27:53
of that is tied to Ken Dorsey as well, which I do think you
27:57
will see improvements in those. Again, just from a roster perspective, I
28:00
think Dalton Kinkaid is a significant step up from whoever tight End two was going
28:04
to be last year initially how it was intended or how it ended up shaking
28:08
out. So that's a huge piece. And I do expect Ken Dorsey to
28:12
be better in this year as well, So that's a huge piece, right
28:18
Like that twelve personnel again, I think it's gonna be kind of the table
28:22
setter for what this offense is. I expect Dalton Kinkaid to get worked in
28:26
early and often. I don't know if he's going to be the guy who's
28:29
seeing seventy eighty percent of the snaps, and he's an on field regular.
28:33
I do think they will mix in Deontay Hardy, maybe some trend Shrefield Khalil
28:37
Shakir, we'll see kind of who wins the wide receiver three but more like
28:41
wide receiver for battle after Dalton Kinkaid. Like if you're just looking at from
28:45
a wide receiver depth chart perspective, how does that shake out? Where does
28:49
Shakire fit in? Where does Hardy fit in? Where does Shurefield fit in.
28:52
I also think what's an exciting piece is Hardy is really electric. He's
28:57
got juice both both in terms of long speed, in short area quickness and
29:00
burst. He's also a better route runner than he gets credit for. But
29:03
his big thing is that he's just had injury concerns. He's never been able
29:07
to stay healthy. If you are using him less and relying on him less,
29:12
just I think that helps the odds of him being able to stay healthy
29:17
because he's seeing less work, and maybe if he can stay healthy for a
29:21
full season, you get the full opportunity to kind of use that skill set
29:25
and mix it in wherever and however you want. So that's another potential bonus.
29:30
But I kind of go back to white down Kings' question earlier with the
29:33
super chat. I do think Dalon Kincaid's going to be like that third receiver,
29:37
which makes the wide receiver battle for everyone else very interesting from a snapshare
29:45
perspective and from a timeshare perspective, and even role by extension in scheme like
29:52
how do you use those players? What do you do? From that regard,
29:56
So total personnel is going to be a heavy p grab some questions here
30:00
from the chat. Mike says, any chance Beasley will be back? I
30:03
don't know. Based on a social media it doesn't sound like it, but
30:11
we'll see. You never know. Social media can absolutely be a lie,
30:15
So we'll see what else we got? What else we got? Sarah says,
30:21
I love the idea of twelve personnel for us. It's going to stress
30:23
the defense out big time. It absolutely will. Um, It's just it's
30:27
tough to match from a defensive perspective. I talked about it last week.
30:32
When you've got two tight ends who can function as blockers in the run game
30:36
but also function as receivers in the passing game, you just don't know how
30:40
to match that, especially as most defenses usually go nickel nowadays, Like does
30:45
your nickel corner have enough size and strength to match up with the tight ends
30:48
in the passing game? Like will they not get bodied, you know,
30:52
downfield on the route or at the catchpoint? And are they do they have
30:55
enough size and frame to go at him in the run and play run defense.
30:59
And if they do have those pieces, cool, are they also athletic
31:03
and fast enough to stay with Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid out in the route
31:07
distribution? Like There's just so many questions that really have to be answered when
31:11
it comes to twelve personnel, and that's why it's really exciting. Like this
31:14
comment from John who says being got the best receiver with the best hands,
31:17
it just happened to be in the body of a tight and very nice interesting
31:22
comment from Ralph. Ralph says aunt saw on CBS on the CBS site that
31:26
the Bills had the seventh hardest schedule. Fins, Jets, and Pats had
31:30
even harder ones. How thought first place schedules were always harder. They can
31:34
be. Again, everything's based off a win percentage, but it'll take into
31:38
account what division you are playing as well. I also don't put too much
31:45
stock into the hardest schedule pieces as of now because we don't know who these
31:49
teams are going to be. I mean, for all we know everybody that
31:55
the Bills play could end up being terrible, right, And I'm not even
32:00
just like I'm just using that as a low hanging food example because the Pill
32:02
show, like I put the strength of schedule pieces. I put more stock
32:07
into that once you're in like November December and it's like, here's the remaining
32:10
six games for this team, and here's the strength of schedule, because then
32:14
you kind of know who teams are in season. It's hard to every year,
32:17
it's hard to predict who a team is and what a team is going
32:21
to be at this point. Last year, everybody was talking about how the
32:23
AFC West was going to be an absolute dog fight, and the Chargers kind
32:28
of underwhelmed, the Broncos definitely underwhelmed. Nobody was talking about the Seahawks being
32:34
a power. The Cardinals fell apart, the Rams fell apart. Like you
32:37
look at the different divisions every year that the conversations like, man, this
32:42
division is going to be crazy good, and then it's like, oh,
32:44
it ended up not really being that good. So I don't put too much
32:46
stock in the hardest schedules as of now. At this point in May,
32:50
I put more in season, but it's all dependent upon the division that you're
32:54
playing and how that represents. So we'll see, we will seem. Jadub
33:00
says, Aunt, we can go into twenty two personnel and a line in
33:05
eleven with cooking Kinkaid out, you can do a lot of things, and
33:07
he says mismatches absolutely so. Fia says, I watched the Utah USC game
33:12
this morning and keyed in on Kinkaid impressive sixty yet he was sixteen to sixteen,
33:16
sixteen targets, sixteen catches and solid blocking. Even the announcers mentioned Kelsey.
33:22
Yeah, he's got a similar frame. And when you have a really
33:25
versatile pass catching tight end, I think those Kelsey comps are gonna come.
33:29
I like that you mentioned the blocking. I mentioned it last week. I
33:30
put it up on Twitter. If for you folks who don't follow me on
33:34
Twitter, find me at Pro two underscores. Aunt, that's Pro two hundred
33:37
scores a n T. I've broken down a bunch of Kincaid clips in terms
33:42
of his blocking. I don't think he's a plus blocker, but he is
33:45
functional. He is willing, he gives effort. He can block safeties and
33:50
nickel corners and dbs. He can crack on a linebacker. He can dig
33:53
out second level defenders. He can even wash down some edges as well.
33:59
His les in blocking come from just you know, lapses in technique at times,
34:02
which happens to everyone. And then also his frame, Like he's not
34:05
the biggest dude. He's two hundred and forty six pounds, but he's an
34:07
athletic, fluid type of two hundred and forty six pounds, so his frame
34:13
isn't going to lend to him, you know, blocking defensive ends and defensive
34:16
tackles. But he is a willing blocker and he's a functional blocker. I
34:20
mentioned it on last week's show. I feel like people here, oh,
34:23
you know, pass catching tight end, so that means he probably can't block.
34:27
That's not the case. I don't think his blocking is a plus attribute.
34:30
It could get there for him, especially with their tight ends. Coach
34:35
Boris, who worked with Greg Olsen with his time at Carolina and really helped
34:39
him evolve his game as an overall complete tight end not just the pass catching
34:44
tight end. So I think in Kaide will get better in that area with
34:46
NFL coaching and technique. But he's functional and willing as of now, and
34:52
being willing is like ninety percent of the blocking battle in the NFL. And
34:54
again he's functional, So I think that's a really strong piece for his right
35:00
now, and all of sudden think that makes it really exciting when is Low
35:04
says, right here, you can coach blocking, you can't coach his athleticism.
35:08
That's very fair. That's very fair. That's very fair. What else
35:14
do we get? All right? Now, let's move on to the Rick
35:20
says, what happens in twelve when your guards camp pull the bills guards can
35:22
pull McGovern, Kim pull, and Bates can pull. If he's going to
35:25
be the starter and Torrence if he starts, I don't think pulling is his
35:29
strong suit. He can get the job done. But if you attack from
35:32
a more downhill perspective and then use him more as the pinner or as the
35:37
pin, if you do pin and pulls, I think that can work as
35:39
well. Okay, so let's move on to our next topic here, Josh
35:49
Allen's directional attacking slash play design, so not Josh Allen's play design, but
35:53
the overall play design when messed together with Josh Allen's directional attacking. This piece
35:59
is is tied into several areas of the Bill's offense from twenty twenty two,
36:05
but I think this year, in twenty twenty three, I think we see
36:07
less of the go for the throat type of offense that we saw in twenty
36:13
twenty two. Josh Allen is aggressive. I think he will stay aggressive.
36:16
So is Ken Dorsey. At Ken Dorsey and Josh Allen, I think both
36:21
vibe on those aggressive wavelengths, like they want it all and they kind of
36:24
want it now. But I think in twenty twenty three we see Ken Dorsey
36:28
rain Josh Allen in a bit more, both in terms of play calling and
36:34
concepts, and I think that will affect Josh Allen's directional attacking in terms of
36:40
where he throws the ball, how he throws the ball, what he does
36:45
in that aspect. So I want to start off talking about Josh Allen's average
36:47
depth of target in twenty twenty two regular season and postseason. So his average
36:52
depth of target in twenty twenty two was ten point two mentioned in the last
36:57
week's show, and this was his highest average depth of target since his rookie
37:01
year when it was eleven point five and down the stretch last year it was
37:06
significantly high. Week fifteen versus Miami average at the target was eleven point eight,
37:12
Week sixteen versus Chicago eleven point five, Week eighteen versus the Pats fourteen
37:16
point nine, the Wildcard round versus Miami it was sixteen point five, and
37:22
the Divisional round versus Cincinnati it was eleven point one. Now, as I've
37:28
said a whole bunch, this is a combination of Josh Allen's decision making and
37:30
the play calling. I've seen a lot of people talk about Josh Allen pushing
37:35
the ball down field and how vertical the Bills were down the stretch, and
37:37
how you know, what the hell is Ken Dorsey doing, and what the
37:40
hell is Ken Dorsey calling. It wasn't all on Ken Dorsey. It's not
37:44
all on Ken Dorsey. There are plenty of sequences where Josh Allen has guys
37:49
or at least one guy open underneath and he chooses to go long, he
37:53
chooses to push the ball down field. It's not like Ken Dorsey was out
37:57
here calling four verticals or all goes on every single play. But nonetheless,
38:01
I think I expect Dorsey to establish more rhythm for Josh Allen, give him
38:07
some more easy buttons, get him into a rhythm early, and maintain that
38:12
rhythm and keep him kind of under control a little bit and tempered a little
38:15
bit as the games go along, just kind of basically be more coordinated in
38:22
his play calling in order to keep things even keeled and not be so all
38:25
or nothing. Now, even with that vertical presence and that crazy high average
38:30
depth of target and Josh Allen's ten point his average apth of target for the
38:34
whole year again being ten point two, that was the second highest, only
38:38
behind Marcus Mariota for the Raiders, so I think it was at ten point
38:42
five. So even with all that, you know, the Bills did finish
38:46
second overall in offensive dv away last year and second in passing dv away,
38:52
though they did drop a bit down the stretch, which again should be expected.
38:55
Dv away is as an efficient is an efficiency metric, and it's hard
39:00
to be efficient when you're consistently pushing the ball down field that drastically. This
39:05
is my second point because I also do think it ties into that first point
39:08
a little bit, because I think the addition of Dalton Kincaid helps that efficiency
39:14
piece and that directional attacking for Josh Allen. In addition to the play design
39:17
and play calling, someone who is reliable underneath and in the middle of the
39:22
field like Dalton Kincaid, both in terms of his route running and leveraging space
39:28
and catching the ball with good hands and a large catch radius, I think
39:31
that'll increase Alan's willingness to look to the underneath and look to the intermediate and
39:38
kind of take what's given to him. I talked about it last week in
39:43
terms of his lack of faith or trust in his past catchers underneath, especially
39:46
in the middle of the field. I do think some of Alan's reluctance to
39:52
take what was given to him last year came from that lack of faith or
39:55
lack of trust in his past catchers, especially those who worked the slot and
39:59
or were underneath. There were one hundred and thirty five players in twenty twenty
40:02
two with at least fifty targets. Those one hundred thirty five players that could
40:06
be a wide receiver, tight end, running back, it doesn't matter.
40:07
One hundred and thirty five players in twenty twenty two, they had at least
40:12
fifty targets. The Bills had three in the top six in terms of drop
40:16
percentage and four in the top eighteen in terms of drop percentage. Gabriel Davis,
40:22
who mainly works outside, thirteen point eight drop percentage that was first.
40:27
Devin Singletary had an eleven point one drop percentage that was fifth, Isaia McKenzie
40:31
had a ten point nine drop percentage that was six, and Dawson Knox had
40:36
an eight point eight drop percentage which was eighteenth. I think that was part
40:42
of the reason. Also combined two with the elbow injury opponent whether all that
40:47
kind of stuff. I think all of that combines contextually to lead us to
40:52
the result of Josh Allen pushing the ball down field more. This isn't just
40:54
like an isolated variable or an isolated thing that you just remove this and every
41:00
thing changes. But I think by adding more of a consistent presence in the
41:07
middle of the field with Dalon Kincaide, I think that increases his willingness to
41:12
look towards that area of the field and look towards that player again, We've
41:16
talked about Eric's broken it down on Twitter. I've broken it down on Twitter.
41:20
We've talked about in the film room. Cole Beasley was that security blanket
41:22
for Josh Allen. Diggs was his number one, but Cole Beasley was a
41:25
significant, significant, significant part of this Buffalo Bill's offense as a whole,
41:30
but especially to Josh Allen. He was that guy who Alan knew, you
41:37
know, it's third and six. He's going to run this route. He's
41:39
going to get to this spot. He's gonna get open. He's gonna see
41:43
what I see. At the same time I see it, I'm gonna put
41:46
it on him. He's gonna catch it, he's gonna get the first down.
41:50
Beasley was that guy who Alan trusted to be where he needed to be
41:53
and when he needed to be, and he operated out of that slot.
41:57
He operated out of the spot that allowed you to control more of the middle
42:00
of the field, to control defenders and give that stable, secure presence underneath
42:08
and in the intermediate and in the interior where the slot receivers work. Yeah,
42:13
slot receivers have a two way go. They can go outside, they
42:15
can go vertical, they can go inside and kind of do whatever they want,
42:17
but when you had that consistent slot presence, it just makes you feel
42:22
more secure in the middle of the field. And you look at a lot
42:25
of those guys who I mentioned so again, three hundred and thirty five players
42:29
in twenty twenty two with at least fifty targets. The Bills had three players
42:32
in the top six and drop percentage exclude Gabriel Davis right. Devin Singletary was
42:37
fifth and drop percentage. Isaiah McKenzie was six and drop percentage. Dawson knox
42:42
was eighteenth in drop percentage, but they were all relatively close. Singletary's drop
42:46
percentage was eleven point one, Mackenzie was ten point nine, Knoxes was eight
42:51
point eight. Where do all three of those guys work It mainly, not
42:55
exclusively, but mainly in the interior. When you're thinking it having Singletary,
43:00
what's Singletary doing probably releasing and hooking right in front of the offensive line kind
43:06
of two yards deep to try and catch the ball and then break a tackle
43:08
and get you five or six yards. That's usually where he's curling up.
43:10
Yes, he'll get some work into the flats, but that's also underneath pieces
43:15
as well. Right, Isaiah McKenzie slot receiver, where's he working. He's
43:19
working in the middle of the field on those drags, on those crossers,
43:21
on those option routes, or on hooks, you know, on the hook
43:23
curls. He's sitting down in the middle of the field trying to read that
43:27
space. Dawson Knox, he's used in a bit of a different manner,
43:30
but he's got that drop percentage as well. All those players who tend to
43:36
have more work in between the numbers and in between the hashes and in that
43:42
area of the middle of the field that isn't the boundary where Digs and Gabriel
43:45
Davis you would like them to work. You got three dudes who were dropping
43:50
passes and it happened right out of the gate, like McKenzie dropped that pass
43:52
at night one week one against the Rams that led to an interception. So
43:57
if you don't have confidence in who you have underneath and who you have in
44:01
the middle, combined with Josh Allen's mentality, which we're going to talk about
44:06
in a minute, that's going to lead you to push the ball down field
44:09
even more. And so I mentioned again like I think Dorsey will rain Allen
44:15
in more weather purposefully and consciously by saying like, hey, dude, you
44:19
need to chill the hell out and do X, Y and Z, or
44:22
raining him in by getting him into a rhythm early, getting him comfortable,
44:25
providing him some easy buttons, and just more proper sequencing and play calling and
44:30
proper play design. I also think that Josh Allen does need to be rained
44:35
in. I've said it on the show before, I've said it on Twitter.
44:37
He presses, and when it works it's beautiful, but when it doesn't,
44:43
it's ugly, and then it can also snowball. The same thing again,
44:46
this isn't new, Like if you watch the show, you know I've
44:49
said it before. Like the same thing that exists in Josh Allen that makes
44:53
him truck a linebacker to get an extra one or two yards, or hold
44:59
onto that ball home against Miami on that Saturday night, holding onto the ball
45:04
at the end of the first half as seconds are bleeding away in week fifteen,
45:08
before he throws that touchdown to James Cook, Like that play was amazing,
45:13
Right, Alan holds onto the ball and holds onto the ball and he
45:15
rolls to his right and he throws across his body, and he completes it
45:19
to cook with no time left on the clock, and it's a touchdown,
45:21
and it's amazing. It's an amazing play. Same thing with him trucking a
45:23
linebacker for an extra couple of yards or hurtling a defender, it's a minute,
45:27
it's an amazing play. Those aren't the smart decisions. And the same
45:34
thing that exists in him that makes him truck a linebacker or makes him hold
45:37
onto the ball and bleed the seconds away trying to get that touchdown at the
45:40
end of the first half against Miami, that thing that exists in him that
45:45
makes him do that is the same thing that makes him go deep on first
45:50
down when he has a man wide open underneath for five or six yards,
45:53
and when it works, it's awesome. When he hurdles a defender, it's
45:58
fantastic. When he holds onto the ball and holds onto it and stiff arms
46:01
a defender and throws back across his body and gets a touchdown, it's,
46:05
oh my god, that's an alien play, Duds a unicorn. This is
46:07
fantastic. But when he holds onto the ball and throws back across his body
46:10
and it gets intercepted, and you're in the red zone and it's like,
46:13
dude, you didn't need to do that. We could have taken the field
46:15
goal. It's bad. And then when you add in Josh Allen's aggressive nature
46:23
again, that same piece that makes him he wants everything. If he can
46:27
get twelve yards, he wants twelve. He's not happy with eleven or eleven
46:30
point five. He wants twelve, right, that's his default setting. When
46:35
that doesn't work and he messes up and he throws an interception or he fumbles,
46:40
or he throws it in completion on third down and the drive stalls out,
46:44
he wants to make up for that. So his default setting is already
46:47
set to go for the throat. When he messes up, he wants it
46:52
all even more. He goes for the throat even harder. He ratchets it
46:57
up further, like the dial is already cranked up the ten out of ten.
47:00
He turns the hell out of that knob and breaks the knob. And
47:02
I also think Ken Dorsey is a little bit or maybe a lot of bit
47:07
like that too, Like he's aggressive as hell. He's aggressive minded. Like
47:12
we saw all the jokes last year before the scenes started of him being like
47:15
a psychopath or like angry or someone that they have to keep keep calm and
47:20
keep cool. We saw him after they lost in Miami last year earlier in
47:23
the year, where you know, the cameras on him in the booth and
47:27
he's just slamming the hell out everything because he's pissed. Like I think he
47:31
and Josh Allen have a similar mindset. But despite that, they have to
47:37
rain each other in, or at least one of them has to get rained
47:39
in. And I think it's easier for Dorsey to rain in that aggressive nature
47:44
that's within himself and rain himself in and by extension, rain in Josh Allen
47:50
that it is for Allen to kind of rain himself in. Josh Allen needs
47:53
more of that efficiency mixed with the explosive. He needs the efficiency mixed with
47:58
the explosive. That VERTI piece. We want that you have a huge cannon
48:02
for an arm in Josh Allen. You've got guys that can work vertically,
48:06
like Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. You don't want to take that away.
48:09
You don't want to take out the vertical president. You don't want to take
48:12
out the explosives and the chunk plays and the plays that can you break a
48:15
defense's back in the blink of an eye, when all of a sudden you're
48:19
gaining thirty five or forty yards without even doing yards after catch because Alan just
48:23
threw like a twenty five yard corner route down field or just banged it on
48:28
the post for thirty five yards in the blink of an eye. Like,
48:30
you don't want to lose that. But it's hard to live that way consistently.
48:35
And we saw it as as the season went on, like the Bills
48:37
were winning games down the stretch. But like I brought up those average depth
48:42
of target numbers, it's the reason drives stall out, Like there's a reason
48:45
teams don't push the ball vertically all the time. Yes, it can be
48:49
due to your quote, does your quarterback have the arm, do you have
48:51
the speed? Elements? So on and so forth, But it's just basic
48:53
like the law of football, Like the farther you push the ball down field,
48:58
the lower your odds of success go. It's harder to complete a thirty
49:02
yard pass than it is to complete a five yard pass than it is the
49:06
complete a ten yard pass. That's just basic. Let alone, when you
49:08
mix in coverages and pass protection and all of those pieces, so they're pushing
49:14
the ball down field. Those are lower percentage throws for a reason, and
49:17
yes, the Bills hit a bunch of them. Again. They pushed the
49:21
ball down field to a ridiculous rate with Alan stepth the target last year,
49:23
and they still finished second overall in terms of passing dv away and even down
49:28
the stretch when they were pushing it vertical like crazy. I think they only
49:30
really dropped to like sixth or seventh in terms of passing day, so they
49:34
were still top ten in terms of efficiency while pushing that ball down field.
49:39
The issue is when you get into that rut and you get stuck, can
49:45
you pivot to another piece. That's what I think the Bills need more of
49:47
it, and I think that's where Dalton Kincaid helps and the twelve personnel piece
49:52
happens, and that ties into you something I'm expecting to see from the Buffalo
49:54
Bill's offense in twenty twenty three, which is a change in Josh Allen's direct
50:00
should attacking and play design combination from Ken Dorsey. Those pieces working in I
50:05
think you will see more of a surgical, concentrated coordinated attack. I think
50:12
you will see more of those option routes from the slot. With Dalton Kincaid,
50:15
I think you'll see more match I think you'll see just more easy buttons
50:19
and more completions. I think you'll also see more of a presence in the
50:22
run game, which we're going to get into a minute, and then which
50:25
we're going to get into in a minute, and then I think you'll see
50:29
them work in the explosives and the downfield attacks, whether it's just straight drop
50:32
back, or it's under center play action, or it's RPOs like whatever they're
50:36
doing. I think you'll still see that explosive element, but I expect to
50:39
see more directional attacking in the middle of the field, more concentrated and coordinated
50:45
play design from a rhythmic perspective to get Josh Allen comfortable and move him into
50:52
an area that allows him to play more efficiently while not losing that explosive aspect
51:00
of his game. I think it's an important piece and I think it's needed
51:02
again rock paper Scissors, you need those pivots, you need you need to
51:07
be able to throw rock paper scissors. When you're playing rock paper scissors,
51:10
you need to be able to throw all three. You can't just live in
51:14
one world. That's not a recipe for success at all. Can work,
51:17
but it's hard to live in that way. Let's grab some comments, like
51:22
Joe says here, sugar rush Josh Allen is the thing. It absolutely is,
51:24
and I think I think it has a negative connotation and I do understand
51:29
why, but it's just who he is, Like, it's how we want
51:34
to use it. If you want to call like sugar rush Josh Allen or
51:36
sugar high Josh Allen, or like the ying and yang of who he is,
51:40
what makes him exciting and what people praise him for. And that's that's
51:45
the issue that can lie when you only focus on the result. Like I'm
51:50
not trying to just say this as a Joe because it's a it's a Bill
51:52
show, but like the process of things. That's why the process is so
51:55
important. When you just focus on man. Again, we're at the end
52:00
of the first half against Miami. When you just focus on man, Josh
52:04
Allen just made an amazing play and completed a touchdown pass to James Cook with
52:07
no time left on the clock to end the first half and to put the
52:10
Bills up twenty one to thirteen man. That was an amazing play. When
52:14
you just focus on the result, you can get lost in the bigger picture.
52:19
And the bigger picture was Josh Allen bled the clock all the way down
52:23
and he completed a low percentage play and it swung the pendulum and was tremendously
52:30
helpful. But from an efficiency standpoint, or from like a smart decision making
52:34
standpoint, that was not the right call. The Bills easily could have ended
52:37
up with no points because if you don't complete that there, not only do
52:40
you miss out on the touchdown, you miss out on the field goal.
52:43
You get no points in the red zone right there, let alone all these
52:47
other plays that we've talked about where he pushes when he doesn't necessarily have to
52:51
on some one and so forth. But that's who he is. And when
52:53
it works, he's praised for it, and it's amazing, and he's a
52:58
unicorn and he's an alien. And when it does doesn't work, it's stupid
53:00
and it's awful and it's a bonehead decision and he knows that, and so
53:05
in order to try and make up for that bone head decision, he doesn't
53:07
come out to the field next time and go, Okay, you know what,
53:12
let me breathe, Let's get back in rhythm, Let's get things going.
53:15
No, he comes out on the field after making a mistake and he's
53:16
like, I want to seventy five yard touchdown right now. Like that's who
53:20
he is by default, Like that's who he is. He wants it all,
53:24
any and every moment that he's on the field, he wants to maximize
53:29
every play and when it works, it's awesome. But when it doesn't,
53:31
it hurts you. And if you have a coach that's also like that and
53:35
Ken Dorsey, which I hope he learned from a little bit more, whether
53:37
it's within himself or how to kind of rain in Josh Allen from a play
53:42
calling perspective, those kind of things is like fighting fire with fire, but
53:45
instead of canceling out the fire, you're just making a bigger inferno. End,
53:49
maybe it leads to some explosives and things work out, or it can
53:52
doom you a little bit a little bit. Oh Nikki says, that's still
53:58
why I think Dorsey needs to be on the sideline where everyone can feed off
54:00
that fire. Interesting. Interesting, RJ saying, I just wished Dorsey gave
54:07
Josh those quote unquote easy button throws. I remember four years of film rooms
54:13
and constantly hearing that Dabo was giving Josh answers to the test. I did
54:16
not see that once last year. I think he did early on Ken Dorsey's
54:22
play design. You also gonna remember too, like think about how the Bills
54:25
came out against the Rams where the Rams were playing off coverage and everything Dorsey
54:30
was calling was attacking those voided and vacated spaces underneath and the Bills were clicking,
54:35
or what they did week two against Tennessee where Tennessee was playing off coverage
54:38
and they were just running Glance RPOs left and right and hitting him on the
54:44
outs and just doing everything and they were just eating all the free space that
54:46
Tennessee gave them. I think as the season went on, and this was
54:51
to be expected to a degree, you have a rookie offensive coordinator by the
54:55
middle of the year, the kind of no pun intended, like the play
55:00
book is kind of out on that guy. I think defense has started to
55:02
adjust and Dorsey necessarily didn't have all the answers, and you combine that with
55:07
Josh Allen's elbow injury, and you combine that with poor offensive line play and
55:13
poor pass protection, and you combine that with your second and third receiving options
55:17
having drops issues. I think all of those things combined to kind of make
55:22
things difficult on the offense. But I do think I do think at times
55:28
Dorsey gave Josh Allen the answers to the test, especially early on in the
55:30
year, and he gave him some easy buttons. But as the season went
55:34
on, I think more got put on a Josh's plate, whether by Dorsey
55:38
or whether Josh putting it on his plate himself. I would like to see
55:43
more easy buttons. I would like to see him give Josh more answers to
55:45
the test. I do think he did it early on though in the year,
55:49
which gives me hope. And again you have a guy going into year
55:51
two where year one again the Bill's offense from a DVA standpoint and a lot
55:58
of advanced metrics, they were better in almost every area than they were the
56:00
previous year under Brian Dable. And that's also not for I get that piece
56:04
too, Like where were we in twenty twenty one after the Jacksonville game,
56:08
people wanted Brian Dabele's head on a Spike. They wanted his head after the
56:12
lack of adjustments against Pittsburgh in Week one when they lost to the Steelers and
56:15
their offense looked like it was running into a brick wall and smashing their face
56:20
into a wall over and over again. In Week one, Dabele even had
56:22
his struggles too, right, So we swing that pendulum and we go on
56:25
the opposite ends of the spectrum. I think, you know again, Dorsey
56:29
is going to be an interesting focal point this year. We'll see what year
56:31
two brings for him. But it's gonna be tough. It's gonna be tough
56:36
to kind of project that until we really start to see, until we really
56:42
start to see. Oh Rick says, what was Dalton made? Was Dalton
56:45
Kincaid's major? Is he sharp? I love how Sophia came and said he
56:49
was a business administration major. Nice Sophia, well done. I did not
56:52
know, did not know the answer to that question. That's fantastic, well
56:57
done. I love this chat. Folks know so much. That's awesome.
57:02
Oh Bills fan twenty one comes in and says, Dorsey's a smart, competitive
57:07
guy. He was a first year OC. I have faith. I think
57:09
it's very fair, I would have faith as well with the success that he
57:14
had in year one. Again, for how the season ended, that's also
57:16
a way too. I want to go back to this comment here, like
57:22
how the season ends really determines how you feel about the season, right,
57:27
Like even in that Chiefs game, but how the Bills lost in the thirteen
57:30
seconds game to the Chiefs. There were a bunch of drives in that game
57:34
where the Bills went three and out and the Bills looked horrible, But because
57:37
of the explosives and the total points, we look back on that game like,
57:39
Wow, the offense was amazing. Gabriel Davis's wide receiver to the offense
57:44
is set, and we forget about the other struggles in the game. We
57:47
forget about the mid season struggles against Jacksonville and a Pittsburgh earlier in the year.
57:53
We forget about the late season struggles where the offense really wasn't clicking.
57:58
Granted, well there were some weather issues, but they didn't look like they
58:00
were clicking on all cylinders. To end the year against a bad Jets team
58:02
or against Carolina or even against Atlanta, like, we forget about those pieces,
58:07
right, because how you end the year is really what everyone thinks about
58:10
you, And I also think I also think Dorsey last year was just kind
58:16
of the low hanging fruit guy. And I say all this to say I
58:20
want to make sure I continue to say this. I don't think Ken Dorsey's
58:22
perfect. I do think he can get better, right. I think he
58:27
can improve in terms of play design, especially in the red zone, which
58:30
he did a decent amount through the course of last year. But I think
58:32
he can get better as a whole in terms of play calling, design,
58:40
sequencing, easy buttons for Josh Allen, scheming things up in general. Right.
58:45
I do think he can improve in those areas, one because everyone can.
58:50
But two, he was a first year Rose and play caller, so
58:52
you have to take that into account. But I do think Ken Dorsey has
58:54
been kind of become like the low hanging fruit for just blankets stay meant concerns
59:00
about the offense, like oh, like this play didn't work? Was Ken
59:04
Dorsey even something like I mentioned earlier, right, the vertical shots that Alan
59:08
was taken at the end of the year. I don't know how many times
59:10
I saw people going, yeah, well, if Ken Dorsey would stop calling
59:14
them like all goes or all verticals that's not what was happening towards the end
59:17
of the year. There were other players open underneath. There's the I forget
59:22
what the score was in the game, the wild card game against Miami,
59:25
where I think the Bills are up seventeen nothing, and Alan throws that interception
59:30
to Xavian Howard. The balls it like roughly midfield. He pushes it downfield,
59:35
Xavian Howard picks it off. He's got Devin Singletarry wide open for like
59:39
five or six yards. Like Singletary leaks out. He doesn't have anybody to
59:43
block. He leaks out. He sits right in front of the line of
59:45
scrimmage, there is no one around him. But instead Alan pushes it downfield,
59:50
and everybody's like, what a horrible play call? Why would you call
59:52
that up seventeen nothing? That's stupid. That wasn't a horrible play call,
59:57
Like Josh Allen should have read that out and dumped it down. There's no
1:00:00
reason to push the ball down there when you're up seventeen and nothing. But
1:00:04
instead of looking at it from a Josh Allen perspective, people just kind of,
1:00:07
well, it's Dorsey's fault, Like that's a horrible play call. That's
1:00:09
a horrible design. And I'm not saying he's infallible and he doesn't have things
1:00:14
to improve on. Again, but some of that is Josh Allen. Some
1:00:17
of that is poor protection upfront. Some of that is poor execution from the
1:00:22
receiving corps hell. Even in that Miami game, we're talking about the inefficiencies
1:00:28
and throwing the ball deep too much. If Khalil Shakir catches that dime from
1:00:31
Josh Allen in the Miami game, the way the rest of that Miami game
1:00:35
goes probably doesn't even happen. If Shakir catches what like that thirty five forty
1:00:38
yard post in the middle of the field down to like Miami's like fifteen or
1:00:43
twenty yard line, Like the game turned a little bit because of that,
1:00:45
all those deep shots that one could have worked out as well, Like there's
1:00:50
so many pendulum swings that happen within a game. I do think Dorsey will
1:00:54
be improved in year two by how much and in what manner, like qualitatively
1:01:00
or quantitatively will be something to see. And again you throw in the other
1:01:04
variables, like some weather concerns, Josh Allen's elbow. All of these pieces
1:01:07
I think the elbow contributed as well. I think he had issues going with
1:01:12
the short intermediate throws because those throws require more zip or more layering on the
1:01:16
ball and therefore kind of require more torque on your elbow, whereas if you're
1:01:20
pushing the ball vertically, there's less torque on the elbow and it's easier despite
1:01:23
the fact that you're throwing farther, it's easier to make those throws because of
1:01:29
the angle you're throwing it at and there's less torque on the elbow. So
1:01:30
I think that contributed as well. There's a lot of pieces, there's a
1:01:34
lot of variables, a lot of context to go in to those decisions.
1:01:37
But at the end of the day, I do think the presence of Dalin
1:01:42
Kincaid, combined with Deontay Hardy and even trendsherfield to a degree. I think
1:01:46
that will help lock down the middle of the field a little bit more.
1:01:51
From a belief in faith and trust perspective, for Josh Allen, I think
1:01:55
you'll start to see some more efficient play. I think you'll see less.
1:01:59
I don't think you're going to see it the bills off and stop taking shots
1:02:01
down field and pushing the ball vertically. But I think you'll see more efficient
1:02:05
play mixed in. I think you'll see him attack the middle of the field
1:02:08
more, and you'll have some more of those Cole Beasley elements back into the
1:02:14
offense to give him that safety net and help give him some of those easy
1:02:16
button throws or some of those confidence building, rhythm building throws, whether earlier
1:02:22
in the game or as the games progress. So we'll see, and it's
1:02:25
a very exciting piece. Next comment not comment topic here. Actually before we
1:02:31
go to that comment, spring up some love for the sponsor. I mentioned
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platforms mentioned disguised coverage. Maybe get yourself a treat when you go in and
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do that. Also, as I mentioned earlier, while you're here with me
1:03:21
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1:03:23
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and thank you drop a like on this video. Third thing to expect from
1:03:37
the Buffalo Bill's offense in twenty twenty three, I think you're gonna see more
1:03:43
downhill runs slash, a more physical run game. Oh actually, I want
1:03:53
to bring up this comment. Nikki says the lack of crossers puzzled me all
1:04:00
one. I think some of that is tied to Allen not having faith in
1:04:04
those players in the middle of the field, like those crossers if they're running
1:04:08
by Mackenzie. We ran those earlier in the year but didn't necessarily work out
1:04:14
Kenzie had drops. Or if you're not reading coverage properly or not leveraging things
1:04:16
properly. There's that piece. Sarah's got an interesting when she says it was
1:04:21
the screens for me. This gets talked about a bunch. It went back
1:04:26
even with the time with Dable. I don't there's two pieces why I think
1:04:30
screens don't work for the Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen. One, Josh Allen
1:04:34
is a run threat. We know this. It's part of the reasons why
1:04:38
we love him. When a quarterback is a running threat like that, eyes
1:04:42
are usually on him. Or you may have rush structures that aren't just full
1:04:46
speed ahead try to attack this guy because he's a statue in the pocket.
1:04:50
And a lot of good screens are just based on the idea of, oh,
1:04:55
you catch the rushers coming too far forward and you let them go and
1:04:58
you slip out boom screen. But if you've got defenders that are eyes locked
1:05:01
on Josh Allen, or you've got rushers who aren't just fully selling out because
1:05:06
they're afraid of what can happen if they miss. It's harder to generate those
1:05:11
screens. Two. Josh Allen throughout his entire career, he's not a good
1:05:17
screen quarterback. I don't know if it's the timing piece. I don't know
1:05:20
if it's the rhythm or the aspect of it, or the idea of it.
1:05:25
He just doesn't run a good screen. He doesn't throw it right,
1:05:28
he doesn't time it right, he doesn't hold a hand to wood enough and
1:05:31
kind of look away like he kind of telegraphs it, like when the Bills
1:05:34
run a screen. You know that he that the Bills are running a screen
1:05:39
because Alan kind of telegraphs it. I think some of it is on Allen.
1:05:43
And yeah, you know Sarah's saying, like I'm talking Postman season when
1:05:46
teams are blitzing us into oblivion. Its just it's it's all the time.
1:05:50
Or Nikki says here like he didn't have the touch. Yeah, he's just
1:05:56
it's weird, like a guy can deliver like a forty yard pass on a
1:05:59
rope and drop it into the bucket, but he can't complete like a half
1:06:02
yard screen pass behind the line, and there is a certain art to it,
1:06:06
like not every team can run screens. I do think okay, there's
1:06:10
a combination of pieces. I do think it is, you know, how
1:06:13
the defenses play Josh Allen and play the Bills, but some of it is
1:06:15
also on Josh Allen in terms of how he delivers the ball, his timing,
1:06:21
his rhythm, his eyes, what he does all of those pieces.
1:06:25
Like so I wanted to get that in there too, because I see I
1:06:29
see people who kind of again as a theme, like put the blame for
1:06:32
the bad screen game, like at the feet of Ken Dorsey. But it
1:06:34
wasn't good with Brian Dable really either. They had some smoke screens, right,
1:06:39
you would see the quick little smoke screens to John Brown, who ironically
1:06:42
was nicknamed Smoke. You'd see some of those from time to time. But
1:06:45
if you're looking at like running back screens or screens out of the backfield,
1:06:47
like they really haven't been good with those, even under Dable, especially the
1:06:50
last several years. And then you know the one constant has been Josh Allen.
1:06:55
The screen game is oo, It's it's rough, that's a rough piece
1:07:00
one. As Christine says, a Sarah says here, Yeah, well we
1:07:03
got to be fair. Then if it's Josh, he's taken part of the
1:07:05
playbook away from Dorsey. That's a fair point. I think you could say
1:07:10
the same thing about the offensive line last year. I think there were certain
1:07:12
concepts the Bills couldn't get too because the offensive line couldn't hold up. Now,
1:07:15
if you're the OC you have to work around that. You have to
1:07:19
figure out how to maximize your team even though you are deficient or vulnerable in
1:07:23
some areas. Right, but if you are vulnerable in certain areas, it
1:07:28
can make it harder to be successful. That's all. And this is part
1:07:30
of like the really good conversation I'd like to have, right, Like,
1:07:33
that's why football has so many variables. You've got eleven players on each side
1:07:38
of the ball competing against one another. You've got god knows how many coordinators
1:07:43
and position coaches and scouts and all these guys who put the game plan together
1:07:48
from start to finish, and then you have the in game play calling and
1:07:51
execution and the players at all. There's so many variables that exist in the
1:07:56
game of football at every single play that very rarely is Yeah, like Richard
1:08:00
says, zillions of variables, it's very very rarely is like the blame able
1:08:06
to be placed just solely on one person or even one side of the ball,
1:08:10
Like it's so hard in this game. There's so many variables, and
1:08:15
I think Ken Dorsey's kind of become the punching bag a little bit for some
1:08:18
of those pieces. Yes, he can get better, but there were,
1:08:20
you know, several aspects of the team last year from a roster standpoint and
1:08:25
an on field execution standpoint that didn't necessarily have to do with Dorsey that I
1:08:29
think hindered some of the offense. But at the end of the day,
1:08:32
you got to be able to coach around that and work around that, no
1:08:34
matter how hard it might be, no matter how difficult it might be.
1:08:40
You know, you have to be able to work around those pieces. And
1:08:43
we'll see, you know, with an improved offensive line, I think,
1:08:45
with an improved receiving core and some more dynamics that have been added to the
1:08:48
weaponry group for the Bill's offense, combined with the more experienced year two Ken
1:08:53
Dorsey, I think just all those things give him a higher opportunity for success
1:08:58
this year in addition to him again just like feeling more natural in that position,
1:09:00
growing himself, and you know, we'll see where he can start to
1:09:03
work around in those areas. One of the other pieces. Again, I
1:09:08
expect this team to work. The chat is fantastic as it always is.
1:09:11
I do expect more downhill runs, slash and more physical run game from the
1:09:15
Bills this year. Now, I will say, and I mentioned it briefly
1:09:19
last week, part of this for me is dependent on what happens at right
1:09:24
guard and if Osirius Torrance wins out at right guard. Oh apologies, I
1:09:33
don't know. I feel like I feel like I've had a call for like
1:09:35
the entire episode, and sometimes it goes away and sometimes it comes back.
1:09:40
Oh thank you for bearing with me. So I do think some of this,
1:09:43
like I said, is dependent on if Osirius Torrance wins out at guard.
1:09:46
If he does, which it's hard to call right now, because I
1:09:53
like Ryan Bates, I don't. I also don't think it's a necessity or
1:09:57
a given or a guarantee that o Cirius Torrens is the starter at right guard.
1:10:01
I don't think that's a given, but If he does, I think
1:10:05
you'll see more inside zone, more duo, more runs that create vertical displacement.
1:10:14
And when I say vertical displacement, I mean the runs where you are
1:10:16
pushing the defense off of the line of scrimmage. You're not going horizontal.
1:10:21
We're running right at you. Inside zone and duo are very similar to one
1:10:26
another. There's some differences in terms of what the backside tackle does, if
1:10:30
the play is being run to the tight end or not, what the center
1:10:33
is doing, if they're working frontside or backside. All that kind of determines
1:10:38
whether it's inside zone or duo. But for the purpose of this conversation,
1:10:42
for us right now, both of them are just kind of running at you
1:10:45
type of runs. They're not going horizontal, and you're not going east and
1:10:48
west and then finding a laying and going You are attacking north and south.
1:10:51
You are creating vertical displacement, you're moving the defense off the ball. With
1:10:56
Osirius Torns, I think you'll still see if he starts, you'll still you'll
1:11:00
see some mid zone, you'll still see some outside zone. But if he
1:11:02
wins the job, I think the identity of the run game changes a bit,
1:11:08
and it kind of has to slash slash it should. Torrens can function
1:11:13
in outside zone, you know, you can function a little bit go inside
1:11:16
to side, but if he's in there, you want him mauling dudes on
1:11:19
the offensive line. You want him executing in a downhill fashion, or you
1:11:25
want to be running gap scheme runs where he's the down blocker, or if
1:11:28
he's the pin on a pin and poll run right. So if thinking think
1:11:31
of those pin and pole runs the Bills used a couple of years ago,
1:11:36
imagine you know, more pulling Connor mcgovernment left guard pulling o Cyrus. Torrens
1:11:43
is that right guard and he's pinning. He's washing people down. That's what
1:11:45
you want. You want to see him using that physicality, using those hands
1:11:49
and that grip strength and that wide frame to just people move dudes out of
1:11:54
the way, or even on split zone runs where it's going away from right,
1:11:58
let him just down block, let him wash dudes down. And if
1:12:00
you look at the Bills offense in twenty twenty two, they had a forty
1:12:04
one percent gap run rate. So gap runs again, I mentioned it before,
1:12:09
but just make sure unders the gap runs are your power, your counter,
1:12:15
your pin and polls, your dart, your tackle. Wrap runs where
1:12:19
you are running to a specific hole or a specific gap if you're the running
1:12:23
back, where it's designed to go to a specific piece, and usually you're
1:12:26
like moving gaps or moving linemen in some semblance of a way zone runs everybody
1:12:30
moves in Unison. I think that's the easiest one. Like think of think
1:12:32
about the forty nine ers do a ton right under Kyle Shanahan. Think you
1:12:36
know, outside zone. So on the snap, if it's going to the
1:12:40
left, like all the linemen take a step to the left and the backside
1:12:43
you know that right tackle doesn't block the backside end Like everybody steps in Unison,
1:12:46
they're all moving in one piece. Gap scheme runs are more designed to
1:12:49
go to a specific hole. Your people moving a little bit. Zone runs
1:12:55
there's no specific hole in mind. You are just kind of, hey,
1:12:58
we're running to the left. Wherever the hole develops, the running back will
1:13:01
go. The blocking rules for those are usually based on whatever gap or alignment
1:13:09
the defenders have, and they're based on double teams, and you're climbing to
1:13:12
the second level and doing a whole bunch of different things. But again,
1:13:15
I wanted to preface accident. I'm going to talk about some of those pieces
1:13:17
now. But the Bills in twenty twenty two had a forty one percent gap
1:13:23
run rate that was the fifth most in the NFL. They had a fifty
1:13:26
three percent zone run rate, which was thirtieth. So even last year,
1:13:30
they were already a team that leaned into more gap runs them than most,
1:13:34
especially as they leaned into dart and tackle rap concepts that really started to work
1:13:40
for them down the end of the year. I showed them a bunch here
1:13:43
on the show. We showed them in the film room as well. Dart
1:13:45
or those tackle rap plays are the ones where you saw kind of Spencer Brown
1:13:50
being a poller and coming all the way around to the other side, whether
1:13:53
going in between the left guard and left tackle, or going all the way
1:13:58
around Dion Docket to the other side to that c gap. Same thing from
1:14:01
the other side with Dawkins going in between Brown and Bates are going all the
1:14:05
way around Brown. We saw the Bills kind of lean on that and it
1:14:10
worked for them down the stretch, and it made sense given Dion Dawkins and
1:14:15
Spencer Brown's movement and abilities. That was the Bills kind of leaning into that
1:14:17
and wanting to take advantage of that a bit. And some of that again
1:14:20
was also because it suited Devin Singletary. Devin Singletary was he better gap scheme
1:14:26
runner than he was a zone runner. He is not the guy to press
1:14:30
the line of scrimmage and kind of flow like water and see the hole and
1:14:32
then quick quickly cut and get north and south and go. He was a
1:14:36
guy who needed, you know, see the whole the play is blocked for
1:14:40
five, I'm gonna get you five. Like he was a better gap scheme
1:14:43
runner than he was a zone runner. James Cook was a bit of the
1:14:46
opposite. He was a better fit for zone runs than Motor was and a
1:14:50
bit of a better zone runner than he was a gap runner. But that
1:14:53
doesn't mean he can't run gap scheme runs. And in twenty twenty two he
1:14:58
was almost balanced as a runner. He had forty nine zone runs and forty
1:15:01
eight gap runs and tie in. So again, more of this downhill piece,
1:15:06
more of this physical run game piece. Not that gap runs have to
1:15:11
be downhill runs, but gap scheme runs are usually more physical because again you're
1:15:15
more people moving. It's a pin and pull. So if you've got that
1:15:18
pin, you're washing somebody down. You are creating displacement. If you are
1:15:23
running duo, which the gap run, you are creating that vertical displacement.
1:15:27
Inside zone can be downhill as well, and it's somewhat physical, but usually
1:15:31
gap scheme runs are more physical, although they don't have to necessarily be downhill.
1:15:35
The same thing with zone pieces as well. Also of note from last
1:15:39
year, there were fifty three running backs that had at least fifty carries versus
1:15:45
boxes that had seven or more defenders. Damian Harris was thirteenth in EPA per
1:15:49
attempt in those situations. James Cook was fourteenth. So the Bills now with
1:15:55
Damian Harris on the roster, Granted, Harris is on a different team last
1:15:59
year, but they had two running backs in the top fourteen in terms of
1:16:02
EPA EPA per attempt versus defenders with seven or more versus defenses with seven or
1:16:09
more defenders in the box. Also, Damien Harris was sixth in positive play
1:16:13
percentage in those runs against defenses with seven or more defenders in the box.
1:16:19
I also think that's a key piece for this run game, right, who
1:16:21
lives in that number two running back space I think will play a significant role
1:16:27
here. Obviously. Is it going to be Damian Harris, Is it Naheim
1:16:30
Hinz, is it Latavius Murray? I think it'll be Damian Harris. I
1:16:34
think his skill set also lends itself to a more downhill style. But when
1:16:40
you draft someone Michael Cyrus Torrence, who again he's not horribly unathletic and he's
1:16:45
not unable to move, but his bread is not being buttered with athleticism and
1:16:51
foot speed and quickness. He's not this guy who'll get him out in space
1:16:56
and let him work. I'll pull him all the time, and you know,
1:16:59
let him work. He's inconsistent a bit at times when in terms of
1:17:02
contact and when he's on the move, whether it's as a polar or especially
1:17:05
in climbing to the second level, but he is a physical, dominating presence
1:17:11
with his size at three hundred and thirty pounds. You want to let him
1:17:15
work, get downhill attack and if he wins that starting job, and then
1:17:20
especially if you're pairing him in his skill set into this offense and you're also
1:17:27
running more twelve personnel, you can get to a more diverse run game when
1:17:31
you've got those tight ends attached to the line of scrimmage. If you've got
1:17:35
a six or a seven man surface, you can get to more runs,
1:17:39
you can do more, and if your run game is more of a threat,
1:17:43
your play action game becomes more of a threat. Yes, it's been
1:17:45
established that you don't need a good run game in order to have a good
1:17:48
play action game, but at one hundred percent definitely helps, even if it
1:17:54
just helps one or two defenders sell out a little harder towards the run because
1:17:58
they've been getting gouged in the run and all of the sudden nope, Josh
1:18:00
Allen keeps it. Now you have the opportunity to create create an explosive downfield
1:18:04
that also helps. I think you're going to see that zone aspect. It's
1:18:09
popular in today's NFL. It pairs really well, especially with what Josh Allen
1:18:12
does. I think you will see more mid zone than you will outside zone.
1:18:16
Again, Torrance, if he's the starter, he can work in that
1:18:20
world. He can exist in that world. But I think you're going to
1:18:25
see more of a physical run game. I think you'll see more downhill,
1:18:28
more of an attack minded run game. If Osirius Torrance wins that right,
1:18:31
guard job coupled with Damien Harris. If he's the number two, he is
1:18:35
more of a hammer, He's more of a physical presence. He's not a
1:18:39
shaken bake. Let the play develop. Let me, you know, make
1:18:42
moves in the backfield and create my own spot. He is shole, hit
1:18:45
hole. Let me get downfield. Let me work from an eye formation or
1:18:49
with my quarterback under center. Let me take a step and let me get
1:18:53
downhill hill. He can run counter, he can run power, he can
1:18:56
run inside zone, he could run duo. You want him running downhill,
1:18:59
and honestly, James Cook can live in that world as well. He paced
1:19:02
his runs this year as a rookie better than I thought he would. It
1:19:05
was one of my concerns for him coming out at Georgia. I think,
1:19:09
you know, for as good as he is in the outside zone world and
1:19:12
the mid zone world, he can work in a downhill role. And if
1:19:15
when you have a guy like Osiris Torrance mixed into your lineup, you should
1:19:21
be running more downhill and having more of a physical presence in the run game.
1:19:25
And I think you almost have to to really take advantage of his skill
1:19:29
set and also mitigate some of his potential limitations or weaknesses, and it's a
1:19:36
really intriguing piece. I mentioned it last week. You know, Ryan Bates
1:19:41
is the heaviest interior alignment for the Bills right now, not including Osirius Torrance
1:19:45
at three hundred and eight pounds. Him and Morris and McGovern and David Edwards
1:19:48
and Butker, they're all like between three hundred and three hundred and eight pounds,
1:19:54
and then Osirius Torrance comes in at like three hundred and thirty and he
1:19:57
played at times this year at I believe three thirty five, three forty.
1:20:02
Dude is a mountain of a man with a different frame and size and skill
1:20:06
set than what the Bill's interior currently has. So if you inject him into
1:20:13
that lineup, and I would expect more of a downhill presence, more of
1:20:17
a physical running him. Again, that doesn't mean you're not going to see
1:20:19
zone, that doesn't mean you're going to see those pieces, or it doesn't
1:20:23
mean that you won't see those pieces, but I would expect more of a
1:20:26
downhill running attack, more at you runs, more vertical displacement causing runs for
1:20:32
the Buffalo Bills. Last piece here that I want to dive into is somewhat
1:20:42
of I don't want to say controversial, because he is kind of a hot
1:20:45
button guy on the offensive side of the ball. I do think I do
1:20:50
expect an uptick in Gabriel Davis's performance in twenty twenty three. I think he
1:20:58
can be lash. He is a low end to mid tier wide receiver too,
1:21:04
but he's much better when there is a middle of the field controlling presence
1:21:11
on the offensive side of the ball, like a Cole Beasley or Ding Ding
1:21:14
Ding like a Dalton Kincaid. Gabe Davis thrives in the boundary and in routes
1:21:20
that are based around the numbers. Whether he's running his routes on the numbers
1:21:26
or he's got in breaking routes off of them or outbreaking routes from them,
1:21:29
he lives in that area of the field. So having more of a presence
1:21:32
inside and controlling the middle of the field, that gives him more room and
1:21:36
more freedom to operate in that space around the numbers, especially vertically, which
1:21:42
is where he thrives. Gabe Davis, or the fact that, or despite
1:21:45
the fact that he's not the biggest burner from a time speed aspect, he
1:21:50
is the Bill's deep threat and even if you look at what he did last
1:21:54
year, he was nineteenth. Was actually put some context for us, So
1:21:59
there were a hundred and thirty five players that had at least fifty targets last
1:22:02
year. Again, wide receivers, running backs, tight ends could be anyone
1:22:06
one hundred and thirty five players or the least fifty targets. Gabe Davis was
1:22:11
nineteenth in yards per target. He was second in average depth of target at
1:22:15
fifteen point three, and he was second in yards per reception at seventeen point
1:22:20
four. Gabe Davis is the vertical presence. He is the downfield guy.
1:22:26
He is. Run him on a post and split the safeties, run him
1:22:30
vertically and have him beat a corner up the sideline and use his size,
1:22:33
or use his speed, or use some deception which he can use. You
1:22:39
need that controlling presence in the middle of the field to allow him to succeed
1:22:44
a little bit more on the outside. And Stefan Diggs as well. Diggs
1:22:45
can operate out of the slot, but I think he's better on the boundary,
1:22:48
and you want him on the boundary. I expect an increase in Gabe
1:22:54
Davis's numbers this year, which also leads me to longer term or bigger picture
1:23:00
conversation. I don't know if Gabe Davis returns, because I think if he
1:23:04
has the year that he can have, I think he might price himself out
1:23:09
of Buffalo potentially. That's a conversation for another time. Yeah, I think
1:23:15
Gabe Davis a lot of what he runs are again, those vertical routes.
1:23:19
And when I say vertical routes or routes that have a vertical stem, that
1:23:23
doesn't necessarily mean like gos or you know, nines or verticals. It just
1:23:26
means like, yeah, a go or a nine or vertical or seven yards
1:23:30
and stop and run a hitch or run a curl or kind of outbreaker.
1:23:33
Like those routes that have a vertical stem to them. That is what he
1:23:38
succeeds at. That is what he runs. And when you don't have a
1:23:42
player controlling the interior of the field, it makes it harder to succeed on
1:23:46
those routes. Also, I wanted to mention even for some of the failures
1:23:50
or struggles that Gave Davis had last year. Let's not forget he had that
1:23:54
banged up ankle earl in the year like he was playing in Baltimore in a
1:23:57
monsoon on one ankle and the other angle was bummed and messed up, and
1:24:01
the fact that he saw as many snaps as he did is absolutely wild.
1:24:05
That injury carried through the early part of the year because he kept playing.
1:24:10
But I do expect Gave Davis to have a better year. He's still going
1:24:15
to be that vertical guy. I don't think Gabe Davis is ever going to
1:24:16
be that guy who is working across the middle of the field consistently and running
1:24:20
the option routes underneath and doing all these pieces, although he does succeed in
1:24:25
first down scenarios. Again last year, amongst one hundred and thirty five players
1:24:30
with at least fifty targets, he was sixth in first down percentage, and
1:24:33
that's been a consistent piece for him. Josh Allen's talked about trusting him.
1:24:36
He goes to him in big moments, and despite the fact that he had
1:24:40
all those drops last year, Gabe Davis has pulled out a bunch of ridiculous
1:24:44
and phenomenal catches in big moments in the playoffs going back to his rookie years,
1:24:48
so he has, you know, some cache with Josh Allen and the
1:24:51
offense from a confidence and trust standpoint, But Gabe Davis is the vertical presence
1:24:58
on this offense. Maybe it'll change a little bit with Deante Hardy or Trencherfield,
1:25:01
or with Kincaid if they can get him matched up against linebackers or bigger
1:25:08
body nickel guys or safety guys. But Gabe Davis's role as that deep threat
1:25:13
will continue. And again, if you're controlling the middle of the field by
1:25:17
having more of a focus in presence because of the addition to Adulton Kincaid,
1:25:21
there's less focus on the boundary, there's less focus on the outside, especially
1:25:25
if you are going twelve personnel, which in and of itself can bring a
1:25:30
safety down into the box. Also, if you're going twelve personnel and you're
1:25:33
succeeding with the run, that increases the odds that a team's gonna walk a
1:25:38
safety down into the box. And when you've got single high coverage structures and
1:25:42
you've got Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs as you're outside receivers and you only have
1:25:47
a single high safety, where do you think that single high safety is going
1:25:50
to shade? Do you think he's gonna shade towards Gabe Davis or do you
1:25:55
think he's going to shade towards Stefon Diggs. No disrespect to Gave Davis.
1:25:59
I think he's going to shade to one of the best receivers in the NFL
1:26:01
and Stefon Diggs. I think Gave Davis will get more one on one opportunities
1:26:05
against own coverage and against man coverage, and I think he'll have more openings
1:26:11
in the areas of the field that he has built to attack and built to
1:26:14
succeed against. All of this ties into a lot of the pieces that I
1:26:20
mentioned throughout this episode, and that's why I've kind of layered them in this
1:26:24
fashion, Because as you have more twelve personnel, which I expect to have
1:26:31
in twenty twenty three, as you have more of Josh Allen's directional attacking towards
1:26:38
the middle of the field, and more play design to get Allen to work
1:26:41
those areas and get him comfortable in rhythm to maintain efficiency and maintain a steady
1:26:45
flow of attack, and as you have more downhill runs and a more physical
1:26:50
run game, that all of that leads to potential opportunity for Gabe Davis and
1:26:55
all that gave Davis piece ties into the three previous points and all kind of
1:27:00
coalescence into one giant point. For the expectations of this Buffalo Bills offense or
1:27:05
twenty twenty three, I don't think it's going to be wholesale changes in terms
1:27:11
of what it was in twenty twenty two, and nor should it be again
1:27:18
for how the season ended. The Bills had a good offensive season last year,
1:27:24
and I know that may seem again a little weird or wonky because of
1:27:28
how the season ended, and because of how they sputtered at times, and
1:27:30
it seemed like they were stuck in molasses at times, and they were just
1:27:34
difficulties and problems with flow and cohesion and sequencing and all of those things.
1:27:43
But the Bills largely had a successful year last year on both sides of the
1:27:45
ball and for the season and on the offensive side. So I wouldn't expect
1:27:48
to see everything's going to change drastically, But that twelve personnel usage is going
1:27:54
to be real. It's going to come in eleven personnel formations and alignment and
1:28:00
fashions, but it'll also go into traditional twelve personnel roles, which you can
1:28:06
again force defenses into single high coverage structures and then you can add that run
1:28:11
game piece. And there's so many possible options and avenues for this offense formationally
1:28:16
and identity wise and philosophy wise. This year because of the presence of Dalton
1:28:21
Kincaid, the presence of Deonte Hardy of Trench Serfield, of Connor McGovern and
1:28:26
Osirius Torrance, like, there's new dynamics in this offense that can change the
1:28:31
nature and identity of this offense. And two of them are going to be
1:28:33
those rookies Kai no Cyrus Torrance and then by extension, I didn't want to
1:28:39
bring this topic up and dive into it again, but if Osirius Torrance starts,
1:28:43
now you've got a rookie right guard and a third year right tackle who's
1:28:49
been very mercurial in his play. What does that right side of the line
1:28:54
look like? How do they hold up in terms of communication, in terms
1:28:57
of mental recognition and ability to function with all those pieces, in the ability
1:29:03
to recognize games and pick them up. How much cohesion do they have with
1:29:10
one another? Like are you is Torrens good enough to kind of protect or
1:29:15
help out Spencer Brown or vice versus Spencer Brown Prayant playing in the level where
1:29:18
it also helps kind of shield and shelter or Cyrus torrens a little bit like,
1:29:23
that's that's going to be the conversation, right, And I think this
1:29:27
comment from Bill's fan, he says, that's what's funny. They had all
1:29:29
these issues on offense but still ended up third and points per game. They
1:29:32
had a really good year from an advanced metric standpoint, from a raw metric
1:29:36
standpoint, and yeah, again we focus on the negatives, I think more
1:29:42
than the positives, especially when there's a loss. Right when when when a
1:29:45
win happens, very rarely do people, well I do, but when a
1:29:47
loss happen, when a win happens, very rarely do people focus on the
1:29:51
negatives or the process piece. A lot of people just focus on, Hey,
1:29:54
a win is a win, and when you lose, the world is
1:29:57
over and oh no, everything's done and everybody's terrible and this and that,
1:30:01
And with how the season ended, I think there was a lot of that,
1:30:03
and especially pairing it with the struggles that we're building up kind of leading
1:30:08
to that and culminating to that final ending of the year. And as Roy
1:30:13
says, maybe with better old line play, they run the ball more could
1:30:15
be. I think you'll see more of a stylistic and schematic and philosophical like
1:30:21
slash identity shift in the run game, with more of a downhill physical approach.
1:30:26
But yeah, maybe they will run the ball more. I've been advocating
1:30:29
for that. I don't think the Bills need to be a fifty fifty team
1:30:30
or like a sixty forty team or put a hard line on it, but
1:30:35
I would like them to run the ball more when applicable, which, honestly
1:30:42
last year could have been that. They were a good running team last year.
1:30:44
Even with the struggles of the offensive line, last year, they were
1:30:46
a better run team than I think people realize. Even with not having the
1:30:53
best running back room in the world, they were an effective running team.
1:30:56
That's one thing that I would have liked to see more from Ken Dorsey.
1:30:59
I would have liked to see see him run the ball more last year,
1:31:01
not just down the stretch. But overall, I think they had a better
1:31:04
run game than what the usage rate indicated. I think they could have leaned
1:31:11
on the run a little bit more, and I think they should have a
1:31:15
better run game this year with Connor McGovern even though what governed isn't McGovern isn't
1:31:18
some like A plus signing for me, he's like a B minus or a
1:31:23
B could potentially be a B plus, And either way, even if he's
1:31:26
a B minus, that's a huge upgrade from Roger Staffold, who was probably
1:31:30
like a D last year. And then the big one's going to be Spencer
1:31:33
Brown if we can see how consistent he can be and how how much security
1:31:40
he can offer the right side of the line. But that's going to be
1:31:44
that's going to be a big piece. So an interesting point from White Town's
1:31:46
king. He says, if Shakier takes a major step during this camp in
1:31:49
Shorter proves he can be serviceable on the outside with a limited route tree,
1:31:54
I see Davis getting traded before the season. I don't think they would trade
1:31:59
Gabe, but I do think if Shakier takes a major step and Shorter proves
1:32:02
he can be serviceable, I think that increases the odds that Gabe Davis has
1:32:06
not resigned. I don't see them trading again. Shakier would have to take
1:32:13
a huge step for me, like, because I don't think they don't have
1:32:15
another wide receiver too on this roster right now, and Shorter would have to
1:32:19
take big, big steps in terms of improving his route tree from a technicality
1:32:25
standpoint and adding some pieces there, and Shakire Shakir would have to do that
1:32:31
as well. I think I think Shakir taking a major step and Shorter even
1:32:36
proving he can be serviceable on the outside with a limited route tree. I
1:32:39
think both of those are large asks right now. And even if both of
1:32:42
those guys do that, I would still prefer to keep Gabe Davis because I
1:32:46
would I would just like the weapons aspect, Like if Shakier takes a jump,
1:32:50
awesome, if Shorter takes a jump awesome. I would rather have a
1:32:55
jump Shakir and a jump Shorter with Hardy and Sherefield and David and Digs and
1:33:00
Kincaid and Knocks. Give me all of those weapons, give me all of
1:33:04
that together. I mean again, unless somebody comes out with something crazy and
1:33:09
offers like a first for Dave Davis. But I don't see that happening.
1:33:12
So I think you could see, you know, potentially major step from secure.
1:33:15
We'll see, we'll see what Shorter can be. I don't think Davis
1:33:19
would get traded. I think at most it would lead to him potentially not
1:33:24
being resigned, but we'll see what happens in that regard or change. The
1:33:30
banner says, too, those folks, because we're starting lying down here before
1:33:32
anybody leaves, before anybody the other This is awesome comment from Rick, who
1:33:35
says, great show, just the right amount of philosophy. Appreciate you who
1:33:42
as we start to wind down here before you folks start to head out.
1:33:45
If you have not already, please please, please, please and thank you
1:33:47
drop a like on this video. It goes a long way. Like I've
1:33:50
mentioned, I keep saying it, it goes a long way towards affecting the
1:33:54
algorithm, helping the show to get pushed more towards the forefront of the front
1:33:57
page and trending and trending with other Buffalo Bills topics and NFL topics. So
1:34:01
please, please, please and thank you drop a likeke on this video if
1:34:03
you would be so kind right now, please, if you are here live,
1:34:06
we still got a good amount of heads in here, so please,
1:34:09
please, please and thank you drop a likeke on this video. If you're
1:34:11
watching later on YouTube, please drop a like on this video. It goes
1:34:15
a long way while you were here on YouTube, Please subscribe to disguised coverage.
1:34:19
If you're listening on one of the podcasting apps or platforms, that's cool.
1:34:23
Thank you for to listen or your download. Please rate and review,
1:34:27
whether you're on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, whatever have you. Real reviews are
1:34:30
cool. If you have actual constructive feedback or positive stuff to say, that's
1:34:34
always tremendously appreciated. Any thoughts, questions, comments, concerns, anything I
1:34:40
didn't get to in this episode, you can add me on Twitter at Pro
1:34:45
two hundred scores, a nt pro ant Pro two hundred scores ant or leave
1:34:50
your comments on this YouTube video once it posts. I will always circle back
1:34:54
and I answer as many comments as I can on the episode page. I
1:34:59
always answer everything that's DM to me on Twitter or added at me on Twitter
1:35:02
all those pieces. Also, if there's anything I can get to, I
1:35:04
apologize for that. Thank you very much to Sophia for your super chat.
1:35:10
Thank you very much the White Town's King for your super chat. And thank
1:35:13
you to everybody for joining me live on this episode. Like I always say,
1:35:15
whenever I do these solo shows, it's always a lot easier and more
1:35:20
fun when there's a lot of people in the live chat and the engagement and
1:35:25
the back and forth, and I see that ticker constantly going. I see
1:35:27
the interaction and engagement of you folks with each other, with me, just
1:35:30
the back and forth, all of it. It's tremendously appreciate it. So
1:35:33
thank you everybody who joined me live on this episode. If you didn't,
1:35:38
if you didn't enjoy Me live, if you didn't join me live, I
1:35:40
would didn't say enjoy either. So thank you everyone who joined me live on
1:35:43
this episode. As I fall apart here during this outro. If you didn't
1:35:46
join me live, thank you very much for your post live, view,
1:35:48
download, listen, whatever have you. Please drop a like on this video.
1:35:51
Please subscribe to Disguised Coverage whether you're here on YouTube or whatever podcasting app
1:35:57
or platform you are listening to this show on. Thank you very much for
1:36:00
all the kind words that are coming in for me. Now. I see
1:36:01
them and I recognize them, and I thank you very much for them.
1:36:04
I hope you and your family and friends and loved ones are all doing well,
1:36:08
staying safe, be kind to one another, take care of one another,
1:36:12
look out for each other. I hope you enjoyed the show. If
1:36:15
you did, tell your family and friends and loved ones about how awesome it
1:36:17
is. If you didn't enjoy this show, tell your enemies and try and
1:36:19
ruin their day with how terrible the show is. I will see you next
1:36:24
week for another episode of Disguised Coverage Live Tuesday at nine pm Eastern. I
1:36:30
will also see you tomorrow for another episode of The Cover One Film Room Live
1:36:33
at seven pm with mister Eric Turner. Thank you very much to everyone.
1:36:39
I will see you next week Tuesday, nine pm Eastern. Godspeed and as
1:36:44
always, go Bills,