Latest / Normal Men / Episode 78 - A Particular Set Of Skills

Transcript

Episode 78 - A Particular Set Of Skills · Normal Men

• 0:01
  Ed: I think I'm okay. I mean, it's going to sound terrible, but...
• 0:04
  George: Oh, that sounds fucking awful.
• 0:06
  Ed: Yeah,
• 0:06
  George: it's
• 0:07
  Ed: pretty bad.
• 0:08
  George: Welcome
• 0:08
  Ed: to AirPods. This is why you shouldn't use them ever.
• 0:15
  Ed: And to be clear, we are not talking about AirPods Pro here. We are some bottom of the barrel. Because I have a really
• 0:23
  George: bad habit of leaving the...
• 0:26
  George: Yeah, your audio is cutting out.
• 0:29
  Lowtax: Yeah, you're kind of cutting in and
• 0:31
  George: out. I don't know if it's, I don't know if it's, it's, I doubt it's your internet, just knowing you're.
• 0:36
  Lowtax: No, it doesn't seem to be slowing down or something. It's just like the audio is going out. One sec.
• 0:42
  Ed: How's this? Is this any better?
• 0:44
  Propter: You're not cutting out currently. Cool. Yeah, but you, you weren't, you weren't at first last time either.
• 0:49
  Ed: All right. Yeah. Then I will continue talking and saying some, some random ass shit for a little while to see if it actually drops out again. but I think what was really happening is my desk is a bit of an EM cage because I have extremely large monitors in front of me and I think that if I put
• 1:04
  Ed: my laptop like three inches further back the Bluetooth radios go into a Faraday cage.
• 1:12
  George: All of those words were true. And none of them are in the Bible. No. Actually cage might be in there.
• 1:21
  Ed: This is why if you are If you are a knower, you wire everything you possibly can. Except it seems like my laptop's USB ports have decided to shit the bed.
• 1:33
  Ed: How's that wiring going for you there, bud? It was doing great until this laptop just decided to eat shit and die. Fortunately, AppleCare exists.
• 1:43
  George: I was going to say, it's not like it's a good time to replace a laptop.
• 1:48
  Ed: I didn't buy this laptop. When I left a startup a while ago, they surplus me the Mac. I paid $650 for an M1 Max, everything on it. I kept paying for AppleCare.
• 2:03
  Ed: And last year, the laptop, ironically enough, started having USB problems.
• 2:09
  Propter: Uh -huh. Uh -huh, yeah.
• 2:11
  Ed: So they were like, yeah, we'll fix it right away. And then they're like, oh, wait, this is the spicy M1 Max. We don't have any of them left. which is why i have an m4 max
• 2:21
  Propter: all
• 2:22
  Ed: right maybe i'll get an m5 now who knows you
• 2:27
  George: know you know what all that was all that pulling that stunt on apple that was the karmic balancing of your ford situation yeah
• 2:35
  Ed: that's fair that's fair honestly i am i am so far positive on the apple care side of things that like they treat you like shit if you are an iphone customer or god help you a watch customer, but if you buy a laptop
• 2:50
  Ed: from them, especially a decent one, they treat you okay. I am up something like $6 ,000 in AppleCare, and not from breaking anything on purpose. I've never had an oopsie drop or whatever. It's
• 3:04
  Ed: just beat the shit out of computers.
• 3:09
  Lowtax: Many such cases. They should treat the iPhone people bad, though. They're
• 3:13
  Ed: right to
• 3:14
  Lowtax: do that. They should.
• 3:15
  Ed: I mean, like, where are they going to go? Buy an Android?
• 3:19
  Lowtax: Yeah, that's true. Same with the watch, people. You don't need the watch. I do like the watch, though. I don't need it. Go to hell, Tim Cook. I don't need to be reminded to stand up and breathe or whatever the hell. Honestly, you might
• 3:34
  Lowtax: want that.
• 3:36
  George: Breathing is important. I have two wearables on my wrists, and neither of them is an Apple Watch. I like it because this one looks nice.
• 3:43
  Propter: You've got what? you've got you're rocking the whoop and you're rocking or is that how does that how do you wear a whoop
• 3:49
  George: i wear i wear mine you can wear them on a bicep band which a friend of the podcast patrick wyman is known to do yeah but which i don't know i i've done it before i don't like it as much it's it's more irritating to me plus you have to use like
• 4:04
  George: the more irritating band material and then i've also got a koros which i've only got for like the running stuff i'm going to stop wearing it as soon as i get done with this marathon nonsense all
• 4:13
  Lowtax: right so we did we did drink check before we started recording but ed just held up his obligatory diet pepsi yeah
• 4:20
  George: i'm rocking a sprite a giant thing of water on electrolyte a cucumber lime no tajino or mineral aqua this time but that's fine and a topo chico hard seltzer tangy lemon lime
• 4:36
  George: several beverages beverage maxing i've
• 4:40
  Propter: got a cherry sorbetto san pellegrino which came from a multi -pack that i assume came from costco i haven't actually asked my wife where she got it
• 4:47
  Ed: that's a very costco flavor
• 4:48
  Propter: that positively screams
• 4:50
  George: costco
• 4:54
  George: is it is it like cherry with a bit of like like cream to it or is it straight cherry it
• 5:02
  Propter: tastes pretty cherry it's it's it's companion was like a strawberry cream thing which is creamier this is this is more like straight straight cherry it's also like it's also like low calorie and you know has
• 5:16
  Propter: vitamin b6 in it for some reason so i don't know they got they got a lot
• 5:22
  Lowtax: going on with this thing it's fine it's there and i'm of course rocking the baja blast the one the only yes one knows i tried that like baja alternate no good
• 5:36
  Lowtax: i've had some of the alternates are okay but the og yeah joe brandon didn't get enough credit for getting those in cans and out of the taco bell monopoly liberating the baja blast through
• 5:50
  Ed: lena con did a really good job there yeah
• 5:53
  Lowtax: how's
• 5:56
  George: that going to work if they pull pepsi out of taco bell like they already did with kfc that that that got announced this week you're gonna be able to get kfc with a coca -cola for for the record
• 6:08
  Ed: strange oh
• 6:11
  George: it's it's wonderful going to kfc i'm i am absolutely going to go to kfc to have a four -piece with a coca -cola that's gonna happen
• 6:19
  Lowtax: yeah yeah
• 6:20
  Propter: that does seem like gonna improve their fortunes
• 6:23
  Lowtax: i don't really care about the the coca -cola but i'll absolutely go to kfc really
• 6:28
  George: i mean kfc is is like not it's c -tier chicken it's c -tier fast food chicken like it's it's not good chicken but the forbidden fruit of like literally kf the reason pepsi is at
• 6:43
  George: kfc is because talk or pepsi bought an entire fast food franchise division in order to distribute their products more broadly. And so that's why KFC, Taco Bell, and
• 6:57
  George: Pizza Hut all have Pepsi, right? So just the idea of Coca -Cola being served at a KFC makes me, it's like a forbidden fruit thing. It's like a taboo.
• 7:09
  Lowtax: Transgressive. And it's why you sometimes see buildings with the three of them jammed together. Right. Correct.
• 7:16
  Ed: We are all familiar with the Yum! brand's history of of yeah yeah blop and salt the
• 7:23
  George: the combination taco hut taco bell kfc is also because of just bad management but you know that that's like a separate thing
• 7:30
  Ed: yeah i mean yeah this
• 7:39
  George: is normal men a podcast from four men who are clinging desperately to normalcy in an era when that's asking a bit too much i'm george in charlotte
• 7:46
  Propter: in dc i'm propter
• 7:48
  Lowtax: malone in outer florida i'm
• 7:58
  George: low what we're doing this week have we talked about this what's on the what's on the docket
• 8:03
  Propter: well we probably need to talk about college football for like five minutes because some things happened this week and then i think we were going to ask ed about his hobbies oh
• 8:14
  Lowtax: no wait why are we doing that and we were going to talk to george about his his early voting thing oh right yeah
• 8:23
  Propter: that's topical and also we've got some white house human resources decisions to address right great so should we do them in
• 8:31
  George: that order college football and hobbies uh north carolina early vote tracking and whatever's going on in the press room of the white house yeah
• 8:41
  Lowtax: sounds good beautiful college football take it away gentlemen okay so first of all fuck you miami and fuck you ACC referees
• 8:56
  Lowtax: if you're going to beat us I needed you to beat us by like 70 so that we could shit can Norvell today and instead your sloppy asses let us take you to double overtime then y 'all bribed
• 9:11
  Lowtax: the conference and cheated us out of actually winning the stupid thing and now we can't fire the little fucker today
• 9:20
  Propter: yeah Yeah, it's also got to rankle a little bit that Miami was one of the only top teams playing a bad team that didn't lose.
• 9:30
  Lowtax: Yes. Yeah, everybody lost. Georgia lost. Powell. Mama lost. Powell. Texas lost again. Sorry -ass Texas with
• 9:45
  Lowtax: sorry -ass Arch Manning.
• 9:47
  George: He had a decent game though, right? I remember seeing a stat line. I think it was like, what, 17 to 20 or something like that?
• 9:54
  Lowtax: Yeah, but they probably all went for like three yards per attempt or something. Oh,
• 9:58
  George: that's right. Because I. I also remember seeing at some time in the first half, he was averaging negative yards per play on his completions.
• 10:06
  Ed: Wow.
• 10:08
  George: Which, just for if you're not a college football player, if you're not a football person, like Ed, for instance, that's really bad. Like, a running back will occasionally average negative yardage, like if the opposing D -line is really having a good day and your big boys up front
• 10:22
  George: aren't blocking for you properly, and that's probably not your fault.
• 10:27
  George: but the quarterback averaging negative and it was it was not on like two receptions it was on like i think 10 receptions at that point so yeah i'm remembering this now that that it's not it's not good nothing's good there a
• 10:39
  Lowtax: good kind of break even on yards per attempt is like seven you know if you're if you're above seven yards per attempt you're doing fine if you're above 10 you're this wasn't per attempt this was per completion so he's throwing
• 10:53
  Propter: like exclusively exclusively bubble screens and getting blown up or
• 10:57
  George: like apparently i i i'd have to go back and look at what exactly happened but like presumably he had multiple large screenplay losses and i don't know either
• 11:06
  Lowtax: way he's doing like colt mccoy with a head injury that's
• 11:12
  George: a good blast from the colt mccoy man
• 11:16
  Lowtax: and that is the extent of my texas football quarterback references other than vince young yeah i was gonna say come on vince yes one play from vince young that everyone remembers
• 11:29
  George: i i vince young was fun to watch that season he was a fun quarterback to watch because he wasn't he was athletic but he was the kind of like sneaky big boy athletic that you sometimes get where like you really don't want him accelerating but once he gets in stride he's
• 11:43
  George: surprisingly fast and like kind of like he's not a cheetah he's a gazelle does that kind of make sense yeah
• 11:51
  Lowtax: yeah
• 11:51
  George: you know and he was like he was just really smooth he wasn't like that good of a quarterback but he was just really smooth and he was he was kind of fun to watch but you're right everyone does remember that one play that was a great game though
• 12:04
  Propter: yeah push before
• 12:06
  George: the tush push was a thing
• 12:07
  Propter: yep
• 12:09
  George: yeah what was that 2006 to national championship game
• 12:15
  Lowtax: 2005 ah there we go it was played in 2006 but it was the 05 season correct right that was that was when pete carroll was at southern cal cheating his ass off right and the
• 12:28
  George: aforementioned tush push situation yes
• 12:30
  Lowtax: yes and buying houses for oh what was that running back's name reggie bush reggie bush Reggie Bush.
• 12:37
  George: Yep.
• 12:40
  George: Oh, boy. All right. So, who is good in college football this season? We know it's not Indiana. Is it like OSU? Like, is that
• 12:52
  Propter: it? Yeah. So, the rankings are out. Miami is number one. And BYU is up there in number two. Oh, wow. So,
• 13:00
  Lowtax: where's BYU? Get out of here with BYU. BYU is ranked second. A bunch of frauds.
• 13:04
  George: They ranked BYU number two?
• 13:07
  Lowtax: Yeah. wow that is wild i mean they're not even gonna win their own conference utah's gonna whoop the shit out of them wow go drown into dirty sodas byu
• 13:21
  Lowtax: i don't want to hear your shit if
• 13:24
  George: byu if byu goes to the national championship game this year i gotta say blue toss happening i'm
• 13:29
  Propter: just yeah
• 13:29
  George: like we gotta be clear on that it like that is a sign from
• 13:34
  Propter: mandate of heaven stuff there
• 13:36
  George: yes joseph smith is coming back down from wherever they teleported him to and yeah it's not going to happen but like if it does you know
• 13:44
  Lowtax: from wherever they teleported him to
• 13:48
  George: well don't don't they have something about like he didn't actually die i don't know i'm not i'm not an expert on the mormon theology like let's be let's be very clear lds theology is is not my area of expertise yeah
• 14:00
  Propter: I don't remember if he like was supposed to have transubstantiated or whatever it is elevated to heaven.
• 14:08
  Lowtax: What matters is that Utah is going to beat them in the big 12 championship. And we can be done with this nonsense. Fair, fair.
• 14:17
  Propter: Yeah. All right. That's college football down. What else we got? Oh, thank God.
• 14:23
  George: Oh, wait, wait, wait. I had one more thing. I had one more thing. We talked about this briefly before I had came out. Ed, you're going to like this cause it's going to be me getting mad at Duke. So I
• 14:30
  Ed: have,
• 14:30
  George: I
• 14:31
  Ed: have nothing against Duke. I am not polarized against Duke in any way. I don't know why you would lump me in with low tax. I
• 14:37
  George: went to Duke. Therefore, you're polarized against Duke. Come on. Let's be honest
• 14:40
  Ed: here.
• 14:41
  Lowtax: Lots
• 14:41
  Ed: of vertebrates went to Duke.
• 14:43
  Lowtax: Wait, hang on a second. I am actually one of the few people who is not polarized against Duke. Duke is like, of all of the little basketball schools in the ACC, Duke is the one that we actually get along with down here. Because Duke
• 14:58
  Lowtax: tries.
• 15:00
  George: that's the 2025 acc football champions duke just as a reminder anyhow so there was an incident in the this weekend was carolina at duke for the battle for the victory bell there's a bell on this little
• 15:15
  George: cart that has been being swapped back and forth between the cheerleading squads of the of the two schools for decades now i can't remember how far back it goes it goes back a long way and whoever wins that matchup gets to their their they spray paint at their
• 15:30
  George: colors and they get to hold the victory bell for the next year so it's called the battle for the victory bell
• 15:37
  George: duke played horrible in the first half and then made a game of it in the second half and ended up blowing it but there was an incident where a one of the duke players a cornerback was standing beside one
• 15:52
  George: of his injured teammates it was pretty bad injury like like kind of like they got the stretcher out right away kind of injury which you hate to see and there are two one or two trainers on the ground attending to the injured player and
• 16:06
  George: and the duke cornerback is on the opposite side of the injured player on his like open side and a young woman who's also on the duke training staff comes up and to help render aid to this injured player as is her job
• 16:20
  George: i don't know who the trainer was but good job trainer that's what you're doing what you're supposed to do and this cornerback like sees her like she comes in and like and like puts her hand on not like shoves him but like you know
• 16:34
  George: emt coming to somebody's you know and there's a there's a bystander there and there's a little it's not like a push but it's like a come on like give me space here right and this duke cornerback fully and this is not like the other team's
• 16:49
  George: trainer this is like his own team's trainer fully like swats her hand away and like pushes her and when i first saw the clip i'm like well i he just must not have seen no he like fully saw who it was and he did it anyways and man
• 17:04
  George: let me just tell you like having played football that school if that had happened when i was on that team i that kid probably would have lost a scholarship like i don't know that for sure because it's kind of a wild
• 17:18
  George: hypothetical i can't even imagine it happening like you know all those trainers like you know them all by first name like they are they are at every practice they are at every a lot of your workouts like your your like outdoor sprint workouts or whatever
• 17:32
  George: they're around the program constantly like you know these people they're taping your ankle before practices they're giving you treatment after mat after games like whatever and i don't know what manny diaz is going to do this guy but i
• 17:47
  George: hope it's something terrible so that that just i just had to address that because you know yeah i'm i'm
• 17:55
  Propter: blue
• 17:55
  George: sky's resident duke football guy so right gotta say something about it
• 17:59
  Propter: blue sky blue devils we get it
• 18:01
  George: yeah okay all right all done football
• 18:05
  Ed: ed you can come back into the convo that can i leave again
• 18:08
  Propter: no because we were going to ask you about your hobbies i think
• 18:11
  Ed: yeah you suggested this
• 18:13
  Propter: i don't
• 18:14
  Ed: know i don't know what you want to know
• 18:16
  Propter: so ed ed is ed is a man of many hobbies ed ed ed ed has gotten seriously into i'm going to list some things off i'm leaving a lot out here but he has gotten and when i say seriously into i mean at like a
• 18:31
  Propter: semi -professional to professional level has gotten into variously agentic coding photography woodworking sports analytics fighting games what else am i missing here
• 18:46
  Ed: like good streaming videography yeah so like 3d printing there are
• 18:53
  Propter: there are a variety of things that that that ed has embraced that are you know fairly fairly knobbly things that that take a while to get into take a while to wrap to wrap your head around and i was curious what it looks like
• 19:07
  Propter: when ed adopts a new hobby how does how do you how do you kind of sit down and get your arms around something like like like like do you just wake up one day and go you know what i should i should get into 3d printing or what's the
• 19:22
  Propter: entry point how do you how do you research things how how does one become an expert he
• 19:27
  Lowtax: looks at his he looks at his lovely wife and he goes babe we've only got a thousand bucks on the best buy card i carry no
• 19:39
  George: balances sir and then a shoe comes flying across the room and hits him in the side of the head
• 19:45
  Ed: she's very enabling of my my bullshit habits actually probably because most of them predate our relationship I've only really added photography in the time we been
• 20:00
  Ed: married. But that's cheating, because I have to challenge the premise.
• 20:07
  Ed: Most of these things are not new to me. They're all kind of extensions on something I've been doing forever. I have been doing video in some semi -professional form since 2012. Okay. When I bought a Lumix GH4,
• 20:22
  Ed: because we started doing stupid charity streams. For several years, we did some friends, my buddy Sean, a couple other folks on Bluesky, they know who they are. We did charity events for
• 20:36
  Ed: Children's Miracle Network of Hospitals, largely because some folks I peripherally knew on the internet were doing Extra Life, and I was like, that sounds fun. And then what is there to do but do completely overkill, right?
• 20:52
  Ed: At the time, I was doing some sports analytics stuff, and I was hanging out on a message word that shall remain nameless and it was it kind of made doing the fundraising a lot easier when suddenly i woke up in the morning before we were supposed to stay up for 24
• 21:07
  Ed: hours playing video games and we already had seven thousand dollars donated out of a goal of like a grand you you may remember like the feeding america thing we did last year that was like the half -assed version of this yeah and it still worked it raised sixty
• 21:22
  Ed: thousand dollars blue sky's great so like i've been doing video of some kind for that long right during covid i turned that into twitch streaming because i was playing fighting games that a moderate moderate is a difficult word to say because like
• 21:36
  Ed: sorry but i would go a thousand and one against any of you and the one would be because i had a stroke
• 21:43
  Propter: but like i play against i
• 21:47
  Ed: play against like anyone else and like i might go 50 50 like of the people that i know in that space i am not particularly good but what i am good at is computers and so when covid hit i realized that everyone doing like live streaming of fighting
• 22:02
  Ed: games like trying to organize tournaments trying to like keep a community doing community things while everyone was in their houses they were all really bad at it and they wouldn't take my emails so i was like all right fuck it i'm gonna i'm gonna go learn how to do this now
• 22:17
  Ed: because i've been doing some of it like live for our local events before that videography, but also figuring out tools like vMix, figuring out how to build a stream, stuff like that. It kind of sucked. We didn't do a very good job. But it was the right place to learn
• 22:31
  Ed: enough of the stuff that when I went and did it myself, I just made a bunch of code do everything for me. I built everything as a data -driven thing because of course I did. I'm a software developer and I am very lazy.
• 22:46
  Ed: So we were bringing things like what if you didn't have to type the players' names in every time they came up, and instead you had a list where you could just click one of them.
• 22:57
  Propter: You would pre -populate the list from
• 23:01
  Ed: your tournament bracket, and you'd just go, okay, cool, whatever. And then this was sheer wizardry to all involved. Because they may play fighting games, but most of them are these are dumb guys, and it just got out of hand.
• 23:16
  Ed: and so like we were running multiple games at the same time and like throwing them on like left and right having eight people come on and and make fun of the people who were playing but it was all fundamentally just idiot stuff
• 23:30
  Lowtax: this is like when when like a spreadsheet people show lawyers vlookup i got bad news for you i built the
• 23:37
  Ed: entire thing in google sheets because venix had a connector that could read google sheets like and pull it into lower thirds so like I wasn't using the lookups or I was using index thank you
• 23:51
  George: index match gang rise
• 23:53
  Ed: up yes exactly because like I just like built all of my outputs into separate sheets and it's just like go pull that and I'll click the one I want and like I tried to explain it to people and the only guy who understood it is like a
• 24:08
  Ed: director at like an insurance company
• 24:10
  Propter: hmm
• 24:12
  Ed: right
• 24:16
  Ed: I kind of feel like all of those are the same hobby, it just took longer. I got into photography in a serious way probably last year, but what's that video but you're allowed to play with shutter speeds?
• 24:30
  Ed: 180 degree rule, I'm not allowed to touch the shutter speed button on a camera as I'm doing video. For those who don't know, if you're doing video at 30 frames per second, you should put your shutter speed at 160th or
• 24:43
  Propter: else motion blur looks weird.
• 24:45
  Ed: The way people move inside of a frame starts to look weird. So it's just one of those things you said and then never think about again because you're just like, well, if I touch that, everything goes to hell, so we're not going to touch that. And then voters are like, but what if you wanted it to be blurred? And
• 25:00
  Ed: I'm like, ah.
• 25:03
  Ed: Or what if you wanted everything to freeze in place and suddenly it's not weird because that's what a photo is. And so it's kind of just building on the same thing, right? Woodworking was a little bit further outside. But then 3D
• 25:18
  Ed: printing kind of came at the same time and it's kind of the same thing to me. I designed
• 25:22
  Propter: furniture in Fusion 360.
• 25:25
  Ed: That's just how I did it, right? I taught myself CAD and then I just used it for woodwork. i taught myself cad to to do it for woodworking and then i bought a 3d printer because i was at micro center and was returning something and like was like this printer is only
• 25:40
  Ed: 500 so
• 25:41
  Propter: i bought it and
• 25:42
  Ed: then i bought several more and
• 25:46
  Propter: you and you already knew how to use cad at that point so
• 25:49
  Ed: yeah i mean like i taught myself cad and it's like a lot of people particularly in the 3d printing space. It's kind of fascinating, but
• 25:58
  Ed: they don't know how to make their own stuff. They just print things other people made. And it's kind of just because everyone thinks CAD is hard. And
• 26:10
  Ed: it just isn't. You grab a pair of calipers, not the skull kind, and you just start measuring the thing that you want to put a thing around, and you just do it. Right?
• 26:24
  Ed: And so to me, these are all kind of outgrowths of the same thing, right?
• 26:29
  Ed: Woodworking was mostly like, I have space now and I enjoy shopcloth, so let's go make a table. But I also just like being bad at things, I think is maybe a good way to put it. You've read my posts. And just like,
• 26:45
  Ed: once I get to an adequate level of skill at something, I'm bored. So it's like, what new thing can we be bad at?
• 26:53
  Propter: Right. you've got you've got you know a quarter or a third of a skill set that's that's kind of applicable to something so that that becomes sort of the next project yeah you can kind of you can kind of wrap up pretty quick and and like honestly ai has made it way easier
• 27:07
  Ed: to
• 27:08
  Propter: do all of this yeah that was that that was going to be the next place i went with this is that you know it seems like in an agentic ai world you sort of start with somewhere between a quarter and a third of a skill set for pretty much everything you might want to do yeah pretty much
• 27:22
  Propter: so but
• 27:24
  Ed: it's like knowing what it is like one of the things that i have found is so i've been doing youtube video stuff basically telling people to go outside and touch grass but i'm telling them it's an ai topic but like i've been doing a bunch of like video effects like i have been doing things that look
• 27:38
  Ed: reasonably professional as like overlays like lower thirds animations and stuff like that and all that's being done by a robot but i'm telling it what to do and like i'm telling it in its own language and that's kind of one of the things that I find useful is that like for my students at
• 27:53
  Ed: various points I've done like print design right like so like I don't think about web design in the sense like I think of that as almost more like coming out of doing print design in like college and then so I'm like okay I'm going to
• 28:08
  Ed: explain these things as I would from like a web development point of view but then like the fact that it's video things are happening over a timeline I have to go okay now
• 28:17
  Propter: you I start giving it frame counts, right?
• 28:20
  Ed: Or even time is fine, but sometimes I'm just like, I want that to show up for eight frames. And it's just like, okay, boss, right? Because the robot can go look at things. And if you build the tools to support yourself in the right way, and this
• 28:35
  Ed: is kind of where a lot of this stuff ends up being horizontally interlenged. It's like, what if you tell the robot to go look at the current state of the graphic that it is trying to design at frame zero, and then frame
• 28:50
  Ed: 10, and then at frame 20. And it can go, oh, it's doing the animation correctly. And then it can go bother you. Some of these things are basically cheating at this point. The new ones are actually really good at line art, and it's not generative image gen. It just, like,
• 29:06
  Ed: it draws a vector image. It draws line segments and just knows how to do it, which is really creepy. But it also does a terrible job at that until you handhold it because it has no brain right like i went into this on blue sky at one
• 29:21
  Ed: point but like i tried to describe a classifier jev for those who who are familiar and it's like if you see something that is shaped like a then the answer is and if you see something that's shaped like b then the answer is y well what if
• 29:36
  Ed: you see something that's shaped like a c and i tried to like explain this in like a conveyor belt metaphor where something's coming along and you have like a little screen that that like pops up the answer and then when it was time for it to put the new one that it hadn't seen before it parted the conveyor belt like
• 29:51
  Ed: the red sea and just the the new item just descended from the heavens and i just like i couldn't even ask you what it was thinking because it was and like it's like no take it back go fix that but yeah like the AI stuff is
• 30:06
  Ed: kind of just an outgrowth of everything else right if you're a good programmer you will tell an LLM to write code in a reasonably good way if you are good at like if you are good at music you can probably get a lot more out of the thing than like the people
• 30:21
  Ed: who are messing with Zuno
• 30:22
  Propter: though I don't know I'm terrible at music I've been a bad bass player for 20 years
• 30:29
  Ed: and like Like, it's just kind of made it easier to do a lot of that. Like, I know people who are starting to use LLMs for, like, CAD. It doesn't do a great job, but it can absolutely make, like, a kitchen silverware drawer
• 30:43
  Ed: and, like, do a legitimately good job.
• 30:46
  Lowtax: Just to break in here for a second, there are no good bass players. So, just to clarify that for folks.
• 30:54
  Ed: That's very fair. Don't let Go Like Hell Machine know. I've never told him.
• 31:01
  Ed: yeah like i don't know it's what else am i gonna do be bored
• 31:07
  Ed: i don't know how to be bored i'll just start picking fights on blitz i mean
• 31:12
  Propter: bad fights we should probably talk about jev for a minute actually because i think that's kind of an interesting development that's actually true yeah and we haven't talked about it so jev for those who are unfamiliar is
• 31:26
  Propter: what i'm seeing referred to as a decision model it has the advantage it has the advantage versus versus llms that it is much much cheaper and much much faster at what it does
• 31:40
  Propter: the disadvantage is that it is not working with entire sequences of words or sequences of language what it is doing is it is very rapidly making a decision about how to
• 31:55
  Propter: classify something that you know if you show if you show it an image and say what kind of fruit is this it will say there is a 99 chance this is a banana if you if
• 32:09
  Propter: if you're asking it to decide it's going to give you returns in the form of probabilities in the form of this decision is x percent this y percent this z percent this this is how we're classifying something
• 32:23
  Propter: so if you can figure out how to fit shapes like that into something you're doing that's really exciting because it's orders of magnitude cheaper than yes then then getting the same the same kind of accuracy with an
• 32:37
  Propter: llm and you know jev jev was the first on the ground with these but it's it's pretty clear at this point that they're easy enough to make or it up
• 32:45
  Ed: jev jev is is is the first marketing it this way okay like there's there's there's been in i've seen a lot of comparisons to previous work like this is the way that they're packaging it is absolutely new and it's like a good way to do
• 33:00
  Ed: it i think they made a lot of good decisions but they're they're kind to take in the same parts and putting them together in different ways
• 33:07
  Propter: okay fair enough fair enough all right these things are easy enough to make that everybody's everybody's going to have some version of this very soon to whatever extent they don't already i think i think open
• 33:22
  Propter: ai already dropped theirs yeah
• 33:24
  Ed: i mean if you just chop the back end off of an lm you can do it pretty quickly
• 33:29
  Ed: The big slow part of an LLM and the thing that makes it really chunky is that in order to make text come out of an LLM, you have to feed the last token back into it. Which means you have to do one token at a time. This is very slow.
• 33:44
  Ed: Whereas if you use something like Jev, you're doing that entire backend in parallel. You kind of just get one shot. Which obviously limits what you can do with it. It can't do things like, hey, did this code work? It can't go do that,
• 33:59
  Ed: but if you give it all the information up front, and images are information in the sun, so go for it, you can get very fast answers out there.
• 34:12
  Ed: And they're also cheaper,
• 34:13
  Propter: right? Supposedly, Jam basically runs on consumer hardware.
• 34:16
  Ed: Which makes, again, that also makes total sense. This thing is just, it doesn't have to be big. It has a context window of like 64 ,000. Most large language models are a million now. But it can hold a decent chunk
• 34:31
  Ed: of stuff. 64 ,000 is
• 34:35
  Ed: anywhere from 20 ,000 to 100 ,000 words.
• 34:41
  Ed: Because concepts sometimes get bundled together. I don't know how they've done it. It could be that high.
• 34:49
  Ed: But yeah, they're great. It's why the second I saw one, I was like, oh shit, I did a YouTube video
• 34:55
  Propter: about it.
• 34:55
  Ed: and frankly went absolutely
• 34:58
  Propter: hog wild on the
• 35:00
  Ed: large language models that it's kind of the last one i did a lot of that with but like it's it's i think it's a really interesting concept because it's the thing you can park this in your house
• 35:10
  Ed: like these are very much things you can run on your phone
• 35:13
  Propter: right and and one thing people are excited about with these is is that making decisions is what you would need to do for something like robotics potentially there's there's more than just that you need to do but that's one of the things you need to do and that and that opens up the possibility
• 35:28
  Propter: of local applications for like for military applications potentially there are things that you can decompose to being decision points rather than rather than complex textual output i
• 35:40
  Ed: assume this is a large part of what they're using large language models for right because like that was my first reaction to jeff i looked at it was like yeah but i can do this with a large language model
• 35:49
  Propter: i can but it's going to be slow and it's going to cost 20 times as much right where if Whereas if you want to do something that's on board and fast, then maybe you can get away with a decision model. You can get away with something that
• 36:03
  Propter: operates in situ and doesn't need a network connection.
• 36:08
  Ed: Yeah, and these tools are going to become more and more of a thing for consumers just because most people do not know how ridiculously powerful. I am holding an iPhone 17 Pro in my end for the people who are listening to
• 36:23
  Ed: the podcast.
• 36:26
  Ed: This thing is about as fast as an M1 or an M2 Mac.
• 36:31
  Ed: Single -threaded. And the GPU is almost as powerful. These things can just chew. And I think we're going to see a lot more stuff like this. Apple intelligence is going to be very disappointing for a very long time until it's not. Because that's how Apple
• 36:45
  Ed: has decided to do AI. We're just going to be bad at it.
• 36:51
  Ed: But these are going to definitely be part of it. And the interesting thing is, are they going to get exposed to everybody else? Are people making apps on the phone going to be able to like... Because you can do that with voice -to -text models.
• 37:06
  Ed: I type almost nothing on my phone these days. I dictate almost everything. And it's because I have just a free app that uses open -source models.
• 37:16
  Ed: I really wonder what we're going to be seeing out of that. Because
• 37:19
  Propter: one observation that
• 37:20
  Ed: I
• 37:21
  Propter: have had about large
• 37:22
  Ed: -language models is that
• 37:24
  Ed: we keep thinking that this is all they can do, and I don't mean in terms of if anyone pretends that I'm talking about AGI, I'm going to shoot them. But
• 37:36
  Ed: people keep being like, well, it can't write Rust, and then it did.
• 37:41
  Ed: Is it being good at being an expert at tasks? Not really, but the individual tasks it can do is interesting. And people are like, well, Jeb can never do that, and then And I'm kind of like, you sure? How smart does the thing have to
• 37:56
  Ed: be?
• 38:16
  Propter: Yeah, I mean, I think it's going to be an interesting couple of years for sort of the home LLM space. Because obviously right now the hardware is crazy expensive. And that's going to stay true until at some point, you know, we've talked about it on the show. Like the end point of this,
• 38:32
  Propter: of any cycle like this will eventually be a glut.
• 38:36
  Propter: where production ramps up and all of a sudden instead of not having enough RAM we have way too much RAM for demand
• 38:42
  Ed: you're really hoping that the Chinese companies are going to do it because nobody else is getting in on that
• 38:47
  George: no no no that will happen it might not happen anytime soon but it will happen as sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west that will happen
• 38:59
  Ed: like
• 39:01
  Ed: we have aroused economist ire but like you're
• 39:08
  George: not just an economist not just an economist somebody like like someone who has an appreciation for the behavioral elements that drive economic thinking totally I get that but like Micron's not building
• 39:18
  Ed: more stuff I mean they are but very very slowly right like give it time like you're kind of banking on the Chinese like CXT and stuff
• 39:28
  George: you can only convert like 80 plus percent of your revenue to cash flow for so long before you start thinking you have a magic money tree that you can grow more out of with more foundries like it happens it's going to happen like it i'm not saying this is something like oh like all these all these
• 39:42
  George: dram stocks are going to crash tomorrow because they're about to ramp up production huge no it might take years i'm not saying it's a near -term thing and in fact i have very much the opposite view like i my view is they're super capacity constrained through at least the end of next year and
• 39:57
  George: there's no price relief coming at all from memory but like at some point it will happen
• 40:03
  Ed: yeah okay that's fair because like it seems like they've just learned from their mistakes and are just like not doing the overbuild for now
• 40:11
  Propter: you know it might be other entrants like like we talked about the chinese but you know somebody else yeah
• 40:17
  Ed: like they they're a thing
• 40:19
  Propter: yeah apparently
• 40:20
  Ed: their stuff
• 40:21
  Propter: is good i mean unless unless you have enough of a moat to keep people out and they don't like like at some point somebody whether it's internal or whether it's an external entrant like like somebody else is going to get into the market there's going to be capacity expansion
• 40:35
  Propter: and there's going to be capacity expansion until it doesn't make sense to do capacity expansion which is because there's lag on these things is after you hit glut so
• 40:43
  Ed: like have we kept an eye on how many dutchmen are going to china i'm sure somebody has like two percent of the audience yeah
• 40:53
  George: asml earnings absolutely smashed a couple weeks ago by the way so you know last week.
• 41:00
  Ed: There's a Dutch company ASML that is like
• 41:03
  Ed: they're king shit of lithography mountain
• 41:07
  Propter: like if you're if you want to make
• 41:09
  Ed: high hand chips you go to them right like there's lots of other companies that can make normal chips the camera brands like Nikon does a ton of work in that space but the ASML is
• 41:23
  George: We'll link a really really cool YouTube explainer on EUV in the in the show notes that will help you understand why asml is so so important they are the only people doing what they're doing and what they're doing is the the technology behind uv
• 41:38
  George: is just wizardry is not sufficient like it's it's i can't even describe how insane their process is but anyhow sorry have
• 41:47
  Ed: we talked about the toilet problem yet i don't know if we have
• 41:50
  George: well which because you could just be describing my last week big
• 41:59
  George: more fiber my tummy hearts shout
• 42:04
  Ed: out to jamel bowie for mentioning on blue sky that gummy fiber supplements exist
• 42:12
  George: it's not a fiber issue like whatever anyhow go ahead what's the toilet problem that we're actually talking
• 42:18
  Lowtax: about like a good millennial i'm waiting for the flintstones ones
• 42:24
  Lowtax: wouldn't that be
• 42:25
  Ed: gen x toto the toilet company right it's like capacity constraint issues right now because they are also the only people who can like make the ceramic like i think they're called electromagnetic chalks that you put
• 42:39
  Ed: a that you like put a silicon wafer on in order to do the magic blazer bernie thing and they're like the only ones who can do it at the at like the scale and level that they're doing it. So, essentially, like, forget GPUs,
• 42:54
  Ed: forget RAM. These things are endangering your toilet. The toilet is clogged.
• 42:59
  George: There is a really good explainer I saw on TikTok, actually, about that that we will also link. I know people think everything on TikTok is bad, but there is some interesting stuff there. So, we'll link both of those things
• 43:14
  George: in the show notes. The semiconductor industry is, I think, if you're not... spending a lot of time around it it it it really sneaks up on you on how completely magic it is that we do the things we do and then we have taught sand to think as much
• 43:29
  George: as we have it's it's just completely ridiculous i
• 43:32
  Ed: mean like to give you an idea because like some of this stuff has impacted my my day job though like at a distance one of the primary issues with chip design for a very long time was the
• 43:47
  Ed: concept of quantum tunneling, where you would put traces so close together on the silicon that electrons would jump between them. This was a problem several steps ago. Yeah.
• 44:00
  Ed: This has been a problem for a very, very long time. If you look at the way that they lay out transistors, the actual structure of the transistor has gotten weirder and weirder over time because they're trying to make them smaller, and there's only so much you can
• 44:15
  Ed: do with like single digit atoms in some cases and it's just like it's dumb and then like you realize that they were they were thinking about individual like electron traces hopping each other I think like an order of
• 44:29
  Ed: magnitude larger in size than they're at now and it's just like this shit works you have one in your pocket it costs like a few hundred dollars yeah Yeah, they're turning the best shit
• 44:44
  Ed: that exists into your phone, right? Like, Apple has priority on a shocking amount of this shit. It's basically Apple and NVIDIA. And yeah, sure, some others get in there too, but they're doing most of it.
• 45:00
  Ed: doing it to put it in your phone i think your phone is fast enough
• 45:05
  Propter: right well they don't i mean i mean that's that's how we got the mac the macbook neo right is that is that apple had these phone processors that were sufficiently fast and sufficiently good
• 45:19
  Propter: that they decided okay well we've got these we're we're gonna make laptops out of them
• 45:24
  Ed: well not only that they're not using the current generation they're making these laptops out of oh wow okay yeah they're using like i believe the a16 in the macbook neo as opposed to the a17 or maybe i'm off by one i don't know but it is not the
• 45:39
  Ed: current generation that is in well now it's definitely like two generations the iphone 18 but the thing is the thing is so single threaded fast that it actually manages to get a like there's there's two main things about the the
• 45:54
  Ed: macbook neo that make it weird and counterintuitive in terms of being any good.
• 45:58
  Lowtax: It is the A18 Pro, by the way.
• 46:00
  Ed: That's right. And then the 17 Pro has the 19 and I assume the 18 has the A20.
• 46:06
  Lowtax: It's always two numbers higher. Right, because they're bad at marketing.
• 46:12
  Ed: Yes. That's right. Apple is bad at marketing. Oh boy. But the thing is that the single -threaded performance on that thing, I've used it. It can run Premiere, right? It's actually pretty fast. The single -threaded performance on it is
• 46:26
  Ed: fine. The main problem is it only has 8 gigs of RAM. And, you know, my initial reaction was, well, wait for the next one, because it'll be on the iPhone 17 chips out. It'll have 12 gigs of RAM. Maybe it won't, because it seems like they're actually spinning up
• 46:41
  Ed: specific production lines for this now, because people like that laptop. And it turns out 8 gigs is actually correct if you put a fast enough disk in the thing.
• 46:54
  Propter: Right. it turns out it's not a computer problem anymore maybe at some point there's going to be a difference of wide chain constraints and we're going to get more RAM and something like that but right now if you can save 8 gigs of RAM you've saved a whole bunch of money
• 47:08
  Propter: on whatever you're building.
• 47:10
  Ed: Because you can only put so many chips on the board you need denser chips and that's where the expense is if you need if you need one gigabyte chips right now they're not that I guess everything is
• 47:25
  Ed: more expensive, but you can actually get them. If you want more dense, you're screwed. The RAM that is in my primary polytoken machine, I think it was $270 for 128 gigs of DDR5 and now
• 47:40
  Ed: it's worth like $3 ,500. I am not selling it. I'll entertain offers. I've got cameras to buy. but like it's like George said it's not going down next
• 47:54
  Ed: year
• 47:55
  George: yeah no if you if you want anything with a lot of RAM it's sorry
• 48:05
  Ed: I feel pretty good about the year after though
• 48:08
  George: uh 2028's a long like like I don't know it's a
• 48:12
  Ed: long way sure I
• 48:13
  George: will say like the Koreans are expanding DRAM capacity it's not an HBM capacity it's not it's not just micron but yeah the entire space has been a lot more more disciplined than it typically is which
• 48:28
  George: is a yeah
• 48:29
  Lowtax: it is a thousand dollars to get 64 gigs in a mac mini now yeah just the ram just the ram go to go from 24 to 64 000 bucks you
• 48:41
  Ed: know it's cheaper to go from 20 from like 36 to 64 or whatever in the studio than it is into the mac mini because it has two chips yeah like at the higher end like the RAM is actually like for Apple I mean not for you
• 48:56
  Ed: screw you you're gonna pay but like if you're getting like the the Ultra no I'm not yeah fair that's fair if you're getting like the M5 Ultra or whatever like that's essentially two chips bolted together I think they have two separate memory
• 49:10
  Ed: controllers so like it's actually cheaper for Apple to put more RAM on the board I think
• 49:16
  Propter: because they can use
• 49:19
  Ed: more space one of the things that I have done is I have rolled over a lot of my personal hardware
• 49:27
  Ed: older stuff but I've rolled it over to new boards server class boards that have like 8 slots instead of 4 because I can more easily get smaller like smaller DDR4 also
• 49:42
  Ed: DDR4 isn't that like it's stupid but it's not 128 gigs of that is like $1 ,500. Better do you know? $4 ,000.
• 49:53
  Ed: Computers were a mistake. I think they stopped. There were rumors that they stopped making 5090s. Graphics, nerds.
• 50:01
  George: who's
• 50:01
  Ed: buying them anyway
• 50:02
  George: it's having a reasonably large effect on
• 50:06
  George: like parts of the consumer basket that don't typically inflate typically computers and computer accessories deflate year -over -year prices go down every year by 10 to 20
• 50:21
  George: pretty pretty much all the time and the reason for that is they're constantly getting better and they're going down in price so like it's just it's just it's just a buzzsaw but there have now been two periods since 2020 where we've
• 50:36
  George: seen actually positive inflation there and one was in the post -pandemic period when the whole chip industry went just bonkers because of all the swings in demand and reallocation of orders and then this big surge in demand for all sorts of
• 50:51
  George: goods
• 50:51
  Ed: crypto crunch right
• 50:52
  George: no no i mean that was that was a factor but more it was just the reallocation of orders across the industry and the big surge in demand for stuff you do at home which generally involves microchips like generally so that
• 51:07
  George: was one and then the second one and we've actually surged past the prior peak in prices i mean in year -over -year change in prices and the second one's now because of ai driven demand so i
• 51:18
  Ed: think we've pulverized this topic yep i think we have to never ask me about my hobbies you'll start talking about ai and then you'll start talking about economics all
• 51:50
  Propter: right what do we what do we have next on
• 51:51
  Lowtax: the the order of battle here i don't know something something election related because by the time people hear this will be within two weeks yeah i
• 52:02
  Propter: actually haven't seen a whole lot of a whole lot of new and surprising polling in the last week i don't know if anything's crossed your guys desk well the nice thing is we have actual hard
• 52:09
  George: data to play with now which is something i've been doing
• 52:13
  Lowtax: no aaron aaron got mad at me for that what aaron aaron kleinman got mad at me for that for looking at the early vote data
• 52:23
  George: well i mean no so let's talk about early vote data like so early vote data is tough because you don't have a lot of bites at the apple to figure out what people are doing so like a really good example is democrats
• 52:38
  George: voting by mail in 2022 versus democrats voting in other methods now if you were just looking at like oh mail ballots are down huge and that you could you could just that fact in isolation you might might lead you to believe that oh like democrats
• 52:53
  George: actually aren't voting at very high rates well they were voting like crazy by mail in 2022 because the pandemic so and you know this is just like a trivial example there's all sorts of different examples and stuff like this it's really hard to get a bead on what early
• 53:07
  George: voting behavior tells us about actual you know votes cast now i mean there's also the problem that no early vote data will tell you anything about what two people actually voted for all you can do is model what's going on based
• 53:22
  George: on some combination of party affiliation or past voter behavior so like no matter how good your analysis of early vote data is it's going to be hazy it's it's going to be right very
• 53:37
  George: noisy and and low signal relative to to whatever but there are some advantages to early vote data that you know you can get a pretty good feel for who's motivated and who's not and it turns out by happenstance that the great state of north
• 53:52
  George: carolina has the most publicly available voter file you can imagine. And when I say that, I mean, if you know who someone's first and last name and ideally county, but don't even need county in North Carolina
• 54:07
  George: and they're registered to vote, you can get their home address. You can do a quick search on NCSBE and there it is. So, you know, like as an aside, like as a registered voter in North Carolina who actually knows this kind of stuff,
• 54:21
  George: like i don't really worry that much about getting doxed because i'm already being doxed by my state board of elections and like obviously for me like this is a funny thing this is not something i really lose any sleep over but you know there are very big
• 54:36
  George: downsides to this right like you can imagine someone who's left an abusive relationship who doesn't want their abuser finding them well you can't register to vote if you if you really don't want them finding you more if you're not going to commit some kind of voter fraud by registering at a false address
• 54:51
  George: so you know i mean there are bad things about this but the system is what the system is in my state and it turns out we have this real incredible system where i can go and pull matched voter records and see how
• 55:06
  George: someone who cast an early vote today behaved in past elections i can tell what mood they voted by i can tell which elections they voted in both generals and primaries going back as long as they've been registered it's all linked by the same id even if they've moved so for instance like when
• 55:21
  George: i moved from winston -salem to charlotte i re -registered but i used my same voter id that went with me because you know match name, date of birth, etc.
• 55:31
  George: That is a much more rich data set than your typical early vote data set. If you're just going through states and saying, well, Democrats are, you know, X many registered Democrats have cast early vote ballots, that's strong versus
• 55:46
  George: your comparison year. Let's say 2022, the last midterms. There's probably some information there, but maybe not as much as you'd like and i think you're probably over reading it if you're just going based on that but we can go deeper
• 56:01
  George: so i have put together a dashboard at ncearly .perk .es we'll link in the show notes it's but it it lets you see not only you know who's turning out to vote in terms of number of
• 56:16
  George: ballots the share of the electorate turnout rate of registered voters in those categories all sorts of breakdowns of party geography including congressional district county racial breakdowns like it's
• 56:31
  George: there's a ton age for some stuff ton of stuff there but what we can also do that's that's really useful is we can say okay how did voters behave in the past election and how are they behaving now so
• 56:45
  George: for example in 2022 across all ballot types so this is early voting in person mail and election day votes obviously we only have early and mail voting right now and early
• 57:00
  George: vote is still early but whatever across all parties and across all methods it's we in 2022 7 .7 percent of people that voted in 2018 had voted as of the third
• 57:15
  George: day of early vote this time around it's 10 .5 so that in itself doesn't really tell us much right because that's all voters but if we start breaking it down by party we see a story for democrats in 2022
• 57:30
  George: to 8 .6 percent had voted at this stage of early vote after voting in 2018 in other words 8 .6 of the 8 .6 percent of registered democrats voted in 2022 through three days of early vote versus
• 57:45
  George: today for 2026 versus 2022 it's 14 .8 so your your benchmark the thing the thing that you would want to see as a democrat is being above 2022 and we're obviously way above it for
• 57:59
  George: republicans the equivalent figures are 7 .1 percent the benchmark from 2022 and 6 .5 percent in this election for unaffiliated voters which is the biggest group of voters in north carolina we have partisan registration but republicans
• 58:14
  George: slightly outnumber democrats not by a lot but they do and the unaffiliated are larger it was 7 .4 percent the benchmark in 2018 so or 2022 so So again, that's 7 .4 % of 2018 voters had voted in the 2022 midterms by this stage.
• 58:29
  George: It's 10 .2 % in this election. So that's 10 .2 % of people who cast a ballot in 2022 have now voted in 2026. That's pretty good.
• 58:41
  Propter: What that also suggests is that the unaffiliated are acting more like Democrats than they are like Republicans.
• 58:48
  George: Correct.
• 58:49
  Propter: Although
• 58:49
  George: that doesn't really tell you anything about persuasion, right? Like we can tell by the polling, there's some persuasion going on. What it definitely tells you is that just based on the information we have today, if your electorate looks like 2022, it's wrong. Like
• 59:03
  George: now this may change. Like Republicans could have some massive surge in turnout on election day. But every day we see numbers like this come in, in early vote, like the less likely that is to matter because it's just such a huge difference
• 59:18
  George: that's building up.
• 59:20
  George: we can also do something and i got this idea from joel wernmeyer i've linked to his project in my project so you can go and see how he handles it and it's pretty similar to how i handle it we can model how
• 59:34
  George: low versus high propensity voters are behaving so if you're the type of person like i am who votes in every primary every municipal election every general election every year no matter what like i am casting a ballot i don't always necessarily vote you
• 59:49
  George: know for everybody and there's some elections where i don't cast a vote for some races but like i am going to the polling place every year so You kind of don't care what those people are doing. Like, it's not that they're irrelevant, but,
• 1:00:04
  George: like, they're going to vote, right?
• 1:00:06
  Lowtax: Those are the people you're going to send your fundraising texts to. Correct. You're not worried that they're going to vote.
• 1:00:11
  George: Correct. You know they're going to vote. You know they're engaged. You know they're paying attention.
• 1:00:17
  George: On the other hand, there's people that maybe they've been registered for three or four cycles and haven't ever voted. Or maybe they only voted once out of the past few. This is a proxy for low turnout propensity. This is just people who maybe they'll vote,
• 1:00:32
  George: maybe they won't, but you can't count on their vote being there every year. So we can break this up the same way by party registration.
• 1:00:42
  George: As of today, as of today's data, so the early vote data through Saturday, Saturday's early voting, per 100 ,000 registrants, low propensity Democrat party voters. So this is
• 1:00:57
  George: people who are registered Democrats who have a low propensity score.
• 1:01:02
  George: are 2 ,438 or like 2 .4 % of all registered voters are those low -propensity Democrats.
• 1:01:12
  George: For Republicans, it's 0 .582. So basically, low -propensity Democrats are outvoting low -propensity Republicans by a 5 -1 margin. And I don't model this for
• 1:01:27
  George: unaffiliateds, but my guess is it looks pretty similar i mean you know there's a million different ways to cut this down and look through this data but i guess to just close it out like
• 1:01:41
  George: every single indicator we have from the early vote data in north carolina is that democrats are hammering down the door to vote it's very strong turnout from democrats it's very strong turnout from unaffiliated without doing any
• 1:01:56
  George: persuasion the electorate looks way more friendly to democrats than it does to republicans and it's going to take some i mean the polling error you would need to to get republicans to catch up with their early
• 1:02:11
  George: turnout and motivation issues is just enormous in this state so it's still early but if if the current trends hold like i am getting increasingly optimistic about Democrats taking the NCGA House. It's like, it's that big of a deal.
• 1:02:25
  George: Like, I can't find an indicator that isn't blazing blue on this dashboard.
• 1:02:33
  Ed: This is all fascinating, but you could have spent so many fewer tokens just emitting a website that said Roy Cooper is being elected as God.
• 1:02:43
  Propter: Yeah, I mean, I think what we can confidently say is that Republicans need insane election day turnout or insane turnout through some other modality that is different than early voting
• 1:02:57
  Propter: to catch up. That we're pretty sure that if we stop taking votes in right now, Dems would be ahead by a remarkable margin.
• 1:03:06
  Lowtax: Oh, I mean, if we stop taking votes now, Dems would win by like Putin margins, you know? Right. And to be clear, we're not going to
• 1:03:16
  George: stop taking votes now. Like Republicans will catch up a lot on election day. but when you go down like like democratic low propensity voters are two times where they were in 2022 whereas
• 1:03:31
  George: republicans are 20 below right
• 1:03:35
  Lowtax: i think we can all another thing at a high level i think we could also add is that african americans seem quite motivated so far a
• 1:03:44
  George: little
• 1:03:45
  Lowtax: pissed yeah just a tad
• 1:03:47
  George: it's not just black voters black voters are a big deal so in terms of share of voters right now through three days of early vote and this is male and or in -person early vote they are 22 .9 of the early vote in 2022 they were 18 .2 in 2018 they were 18 .9
• 1:04:02
  George: white voters are 66 .4 of early vote and male votes at this stage in 2022 there were 73 .9 in 2018 they were 75 .2 percent wow that is
• 1:04:17
  George: again these numbers are going to shift as early vote continues and with election day but at a certain point like like i just i don't oh i haven't mentioned latinos at
• 1:04:31
  George: this point in 2022 latinos were 1 .4 percent of all votes this year they're 2 .7 percent
• 1:04:39
  Propter: wow
• 1:04:42
  George: and i think i think they're pissed i'm pretty sure they're pissed
• 1:04:45
  Propter: one one of the the scenarios where this might not be as good as it looks is if it turns out that late early looks different than earlier will be voting which which is something that we've seen in past years in various places that you know the democrats like to vote early
• 1:05:00
  Propter: early but that as you get closer to election day but still in early voting the sample shifts shifts redder
• 1:05:06
  George: i am accounting for that to a degree because i'm i'm matching the north carolina early voting windows have been the same for years now so you can just match day three to day three and it's it's it's extremely clean so in other words like yeah i'm
• 1:05:21
  George: like it should shift redder but not that much it
• 1:05:26
  Propter: has to be it has to be so so so if i'm understanding what you built correctly it would have to be a different shift than it has been in past years for you to not pick that up
• 1:05:33
  George: yeah so so for context like in day day one of early vote democrats vote share in 2022 was like 41 .8 this is democrat registered
• 1:05:47
  George: voters it finished at 38 .2 so you eroded like 3 .6 percentage points
• 1:05:56
  George: there is there is an erosion there but again all this data i've just thrown out is comparing not compared to the full early vote it's comparing to the matched same day period right and and so that should account for for the the reddening and again like
• 1:06:11
  George: it doesn't get that much redder like it gets redder but not by a lot
• 1:06:14
  Propter: so we're feeling pretty good about about north carolina And is it, is it fair to say that 18 months ago taking the general assembly was not something that was on, that was on the radar or was that, or was that a stretch goal at that point?
• 1:06:29
  George: I think it'd depend who you ask. I think, I think neutral observers would like, you know, folks like Carolina forward who run basically a think tank run by Blair Reeves. Awesome project. They do great work. They would have told you like, yeah, like we're going to try and
• 1:06:44
  George: take the NCGA and like take the NCGA house. and you know we're going to give it a shot and you know we have a decent shot of doing it well you know neutral political observers would have said ah big lift buddy but
• 1:06:58
  George: i mean with an electorate this friendly to democrats it it start the math just starts really hurting another thing i haven't mentioned yet like i've got geographic data here too some of the swing we're seeing is
• 1:07:13
  George: biggest in places where it's it's like in very red places so for instance western north carolina is some of the biggest swings towards democrats in terms of like the chain the d
• 1:07:28
  George: minus r turnout rate in 2026 versus d minus r in 2022 in other words like you know we know democrats vote at a higher rate so let's compare it to 2022 they vote early at a higher rate so let's compare early vote in 2022 to today and again match same day
• 1:07:42
  George: all that like taking account of that the two highest spreads there in favor of democrats are clay county which is just north of where low tax likes to go on holidays and mitchell county which is up on the border with tennessee it's
• 1:07:57
  George: the sort of a couple counties north of buncombe which is asheville so you know appalachian dark red counties. And I mean, the other thing that's interesting is that Eastern NC, Pitt, Beaufort,
• 1:08:13
  George: Washington, Pamlico, Green, Lenore, these are some of the counties that have, I mean, they're very red. Some of them are kind of on the edge of the black belt, but man, I just, around Charlotte, right? Mecklenburg County
• 1:08:28
  George: is 4 .3 in favor of Dees this cycle versus 2022. We're one of the biggest blocks of votes in the state. So that's great for Democrats. Lincoln and Gaston, deep red counties to the west of Mecklenburg, they're 5 .5 and 4 .5. Union
• 1:08:42
  George: County, again, deep red, southeast of Mecklenburg County, 4 .8. So it's happening everywhere, and that's the kind of thing that you need to see to see a state house flip, a state assembly flip.
• 1:08:54
  Lowtax: It's all those Democrats who live in the red areas who are really excited to rub these guys' faces in the dirt. Yeah. you know we always say we always say red state democrats are built different you know if you follow the like the
• 1:09:09
  Lowtax: alabama dems and stuff it's
• 1:09:12
  George: that but it's also outright fewer votes from republicans so if you just look at ballots right like just the number of ballots now versus 2022 again taking into account we're early and early votes so it's matching the same day democrat ballots are up
• 1:09:26
  George: 53 percent unaffiliated are up 60 60 percent increase in unaffiliated ballots republicans are down 7 .4 yeah
• 1:09:41
  Lowtax: i kind of think those unaffiliated are ones who are a little more to our liking i
• 1:09:47
  George: think that's a safe bet and we can actually i can i can decompose some of this because I can take into account party switching and historical party registration. If you look at 2026 voters so far by the party, they voted for in 2022
• 1:10:01
  George: people who are who voted unaffiliated in 2022 are now 4 .3 percent of them are now democrats and 2 .4 percent are now republicans right like even
• 1:10:16
  George: if you look at the unaffiliated it's not looking good it's really not if you look at people who are now Now unaffiliated, 6 .8 % of them were Democrat registered in 2022. 5
• 1:10:30
  George: .2 % were Republican registered in 2022. So every way you slice it, it looks like a much more Democratic electorate than what you would assume if you just said, this is going to be a 2022 electorate, or even a 2018
• 1:10:45
  George: electorate. It looks much more Democratic than 2018.
• 1:10:48
  Propter: pretty exciting if you are looking to bring the pain here in early november i'm
• 1:10:55
  Ed: just watching my neighbors and their flags going from charlie kirk flags to support our troops flags to american flags to no flag
• 1:11:03
  Propter: oh we have reached no flag
• 1:11:06
  Ed: territory got
• 1:11:09
  George: him i and the other thing about this north carolina data this is like a unique it's true the other thing about this north carolina data it's a uniquely rich data set north carolina is not the same as every other state but the signals
• 1:11:24
  George: here are so strong they are so strong that like i don't see how you don't read them through to other states and they're also totally consistent with the polling
• 1:11:34
  Lowtax: oh i mean i i would definitely read it through to you know georgia and virginia
• 1:11:39
  George: yeah oh god yeah any any jump ball in virginia is going d by 10 points like it's
• 1:11:48
  George: i would read it through to mississippi too because the black belt in north carolina looks a lot like parts of mississippi in terms of voter behavior and other things
• 1:11:56
  Lowtax: yeah although the white people in mississippi don't look a lot like the white people in north carolina in a lot of places no
• 1:12:04
  George: i i'm just talking about ringing up ringing up the score you know squeezing as many ballots as we can on our for our side
• 1:12:10
  Lowtax: yeah yeah yeah for sure you
• 1:12:12
  George: know big turnout in granville in nash like that is a good sign for democrats that's a really good sign for democrats the
• 1:12:22
  Propter: way you win mississippi if you win mississippi is that black people turn out to vote like crazy and blue white people turn out to vote like crazy red white people turn out to vote at you know a lower clip than usual and
• 1:12:36
  Propter: the swing white voters only show up if they're voting dem that's that's what has to happen for us to have a shot that's what that would look like is that would look that would look like big big numbers with
• 1:12:50
  Propter: black people and a more moderate loss with white people than we're used to getting in mississippi and you
• 1:12:56
  Lowtax: probably want the third party guy to take a little to siphon some yeah
• 1:13:01
  Propter: yeah i mean what you want what you want is for is for at least some of the red voters who show up to be to be protest voting you know it's it's it's it's easy to forget on blue sky but the other side has a purism problem too
• 1:13:15
  Propter: so there's a lot of dumb people who
• 1:13:18
  Ed: write mickey mouse on on their ballots yeah
• 1:13:22
  Propter: like ideally you want those to be people who would otherwise be be voting for cindy hyde smith in mississippi so and you know i think some of them are ticked enough at cindy hyde smith that they might do it
• 1:13:34
  Lowtax: column needs to bring up that cindy hyde smith let elaine kiffin go to lsu i
• 1:13:43
  Propter: thought i thought that beef commercial he did was pretty good i don't know if you guys got a chance to check that out we'll throw that one in the show notes too but i won't i won't attempt to recreate it on air but i've seen some pretty good creative work out of out of democratic campaigns
• 1:13:58
  Propter: and our independent campaigns this year oh
• 1:14:01
  Lowtax: the beef the beef commercial is a column thing not a gut i thought i was thinking lane kiffin for a second i'm like what the hell yeah yeah it's good
• 1:14:13
  Ed: it's good you guys will enjoy the link all
• 1:14:16
  Propter: right any other any other races we want to talk about anything else we think transfers from the north carolina experience i
• 1:14:23
  George: i i guess i would just say like based on this data and it's consistent with what we're seeing from georgia from virginia the bar is so high is so so high
• 1:14:38
  George: to some sort of a friendly outcome for republicans in the electorate sense and then if if the electorate looks like keep in mind all this polling that you've seen any
• 1:14:52
  George: poll you've seen i don't want to say any but the vast majority have electorates modeled on like they're basically taking the 2022 electorate Thank you. the north carolina data suggests that that is dead to rights wrong if that's wrong then you need an
• 1:15:07
  George: even larger polling error to make up for that in terms of the persuasion effects right because it you know you've got turnout and you've got persuasion and the turnout you can capture through model electorate and then the persuasion is like what are the what are people thinking like who's you know how
• 1:15:22
  George: are people's opinions shifting within those different demographics boy
• 1:15:30
  George: boy like i just tech talarico is gonna win in a host is gonna win like i i
• 1:15:43
  Propter: think we have a chance in south carolina
• 1:15:45
  George: no but i mean it could happen but i just south carolina is
• 1:15:51
  Lowtax: so
• 1:15:52
  George: red proctor i
• 1:15:53
  Lowtax: i have successfully crushed george's spirit on south carolina
• 1:15:58
  George: i will say i will say look look I think, based on my read of this data, I think it is increasingly likely some combination of Mississippi, South Carolina, and Florida go. And I just really don't believe it's going to be South Carolina. I believe Mississippi
• 1:16:12
  George: over South Carolina. Like, I just, it's...
• 1:16:19
  Ed: You can't tell me that Florida is going to do something good.
• 1:16:22
  George: No,
• 1:16:23
  Ed: Florida's not going to do something good.
• 1:16:24
  George: I don't think it's going to be Florida either. I think Mississippi is the most likely of those three. i
• 1:16:28
  Lowtax: think like i said the other week i think it's much more likely the democrats win the gubernatorial in florida than the senatorial i think they're going to get beat pretty soundly in the senate race gubernatorial maybe
• 1:16:42
  Lowtax: still doubt it but maybe
• 1:16:44
  Ed: have you thought about like attracting new yorkers who don't suck
• 1:16:49
  Lowtax: i will say new yorkers i will
• 1:16:52
  Ed: say ohio
• 1:16:53
  Lowtax: wins
• 1:16:53
  George: if
• 1:16:55
  Ed: thinking about the long islands
• 1:16:58
  George: florida can flip in this environment if there is a material a big enough swing around a group of voters who we just don't have a good handle on it like like the if the electorate looks like 20
• 1:17:12
  George: if the electorate looks significantly friendlier to democrats than 2018 which i think is a reasonable thing to start talking about based on this early vote data, and you have very large persuasion effects among Florida Latinos and a couple other segments of the Florida
• 1:17:26
  George: electorate, it's possible. I don't think it's going to happen, but like, there's a path, for sure.
• 1:17:33
  Ed: You've got to get that diesel price up.
• 1:17:36
  Lowtax: Call your friends.
• 1:17:39
  Lowtax: He's trying,
• 1:17:40
  Propter: right?
• 1:17:40
  Lowtax: Not a lot of diesel use here.
• 1:17:44
  Lowtax: How do you think things get to
• 1:17:45
  Ed: Walmart?
• 1:17:47
  George: Dude, you haven't been to a crumble to see someone get down, almost break their leg getting down out of an F -350 lately, have you?
• 1:17:55
  George: Crumbles on the ropes, you know. I'm just, Chipotle then, whatever.
• 1:18:00
  Ed: Oh, I know, but like friend of the show, Wyatt Sinclair, has never been happier than seeing Utah -based crumble closing dozens of locations. It's a good time.
• 1:18:15
  George: Yeah.
• 1:18:17
  George: don't don't do the dirty soda thing that's just that's the path of elimination i
• 1:18:25
  Lowtax: y 'all can have the your little dirty sodas i just need you to vote blue when mike lee is up for election again right like you can you can have your dirty sodas you can have your crumble your 700 calorie cookies
• 1:18:39
  Lowtax: dude I'm
• 1:18:41
  Ed: pretty sure they're about to
• 1:18:42
  Lowtax: not have their
• 1:18:43
  Ed: okay somebody
• 1:18:44
  Lowtax: else the market has spoken somebody else will come along and get the business model right you can have your BYU at number two for the next few weeks until Utah blows their doors off
• 1:18:59
  Lowtax: and you can have your soaking and it's fine I just need you to throw Mike Black out or Mike Lee hey Mike Black too do we have
• 1:19:08
  George: to get them soaking
• 1:19:10
  Propter: yeah that's let's let's save that one for another show
• 1:19:14
  Ed: it's been explained enough times on the internet someone can find it yeah they
• 1:19:19
  Propter: can go
• 1:19:19
  Ed: google it it's fine
• 1:19:20
  Propter: not from a work computer though so we've had we've had a a fun week at the white house we've we've had some developments in yet
• 1:19:35
  Propter: another dc court case where
• 1:19:39
  Propter: there is a there is kind of a a golf course in recreation area that trump has been trying to redevelop and they went and in defiance of a judge's orders cut down 350 trees overnight and are currently getting
• 1:19:54
  Propter: yelled at about it it is sunday night right now and the last update I saw on this was that the judge issued an order on Sunday requiring explanation of tweets Trump had made over the weekend and an image
• 1:20:08
  Propter: that his former press secretary, we'll get to that in a second, published showing a map of the golf course in question sitting on the Resolute desk when his lawyers had previously testified
• 1:20:23
  Propter: two days ago that the president was not particularly engaged on this and did not expect to become so engaged for some time so it is going to be a lot of yelling that happens tomorrow morning so where is this golf course supposed to go
• 1:20:38
  Propter: so this is this is hayne's point that they're that they're redeveloping so like where's that so it's a little peninsula spit kind of coming off in an island that currently it currently has a it currently
• 1:20:53
  Propter: has a golf course on it what they're trying to do is they're trying to change the golf course i
• 1:20:58
  Lowtax: so like i see
• 1:20:59
  Propter: this isn't you know and there's various litigation surrounding this it's not clear what authorities the president is operating under it's not clear what money the president is spending it is clear that there's a certain amount of lying about it and a lot
• 1:21:14
  Propter: of just shoving this down people's people's throats you know like it's a popular recreation area it's a nice place to go i
• 1:21:24
  Propter: guess you know theoretically there are golf course redevelopments that could be nice there probably whatever trump is playing and is not going to be one of them so anyway we'll see what happens but i mentioned in passing the the former press secretary of the united
• 1:21:39
  Propter: states of america and before
• 1:21:40
  Ed: we
• 1:21:41
  Propter: get
• 1:21:41
  Ed: to this we have to stress this all happened since our last recording
• 1:21:45
  Propter: correct yes this is this is it this is this has been entirely an intra -week story yes she lasted a
• 1:21:52
  Lowtax: what three -tenths of a scaramucci
• 1:21:54
  Propter: yeah
• 1:21:55
  Lowtax: five elevens
• 1:21:56
  Propter: five elevens wow
• 1:22:02
  Propter: so we have another assembly line blonde that they rolled out that was apparently a great surprise because there's also an insider trading story on this that apparently there were a bunch of large purchases made on the prediction
• 1:22:17
  Propter: markets for naming of the next press secretary shortly before.
• 1:22:22
  Propter: How do we think we pronounce her name? Zachariah? Zachariah. I'm going with
• 1:22:26
  Lowtax: Zachariah as in Fareed. Yeah. Okay. Okay, we think it's Zachariah. I assume she's his sister or something. No,
• 1:22:35
  George: those two are not from the same family tree. No, probably not.
• 1:22:39
  Propter: yeah different different branches right there anyway boy anyway she's she is a a pepperdine law grad who has been doing movement conservatism stuff for some years she's got about the
• 1:22:54
  Propter: noxious set of political opinions and and past utterances that you would expect but she was hired as a surprise and there was at least six maybe seven figures worth of insider trading on that on prediction markets as one does chance to grease grease
• 1:23:09
  Propter: the wheels make some people some
• 1:23:10
  Lowtax: money is pepperdine that is that the one that's in like malibu or something up in the mountain yeah yeah it's absolutely gorgeous yeah
• 1:23:17
  George: it's easily the most beautiful college campus in the country it's not close like it is insane i i cannot even describe how beautiful that place is is
• 1:23:26
  Propter: it like a kook school it is now it hasn't it hasn't always been so my understanding of the history there is that basically there was a major donor to who was formerly a major donor at usc who started pulling out of usc in the
• 1:23:40
  Propter: 60s because she didn't like the direction things were going in terms of social politics on campus hooray basically she transferred her large donations to pepperdine and it has become progressively more
• 1:23:54
  Propter: the the seat of a certain direction of i'm gonna say psycho christians which is maybe a little unfair but not that unfair of of psycho southern california christian
• 1:24:09
  Propter: sects have kind of moved towards that that that that its reputation is that there are some
• 1:24:17
  Propter: there are some strange thought patterns that are happening out there and i haven't talked very much about my own education and won't hear but let's let's just say that there are some strange schools of thought in southern california generally
• 1:24:29
  Lowtax: imagine you live up in the hills in malibu and axel rose is your not crazy neighbor
• 1:24:39
  Propter: if you're ever in la and and you get the chance to drive out up the highway up there you really should do it it's it's it's gorgeous it's it's absolutely beautiful and it is unfair that there are christian conservatives who are who established a law school out there along with you
• 1:24:54
  Propter: know the rest of the campus they've got they've got rules about like being being in opposite gender dorms They're that kind of school. So that's where they are now. Anyway, she was appointed as press secretary
• 1:25:09
  Propter: and gave, I believe, exactly one press conference in her official capacity, which... One completely
• 1:25:16
  George: disastrous press conference.
• 1:25:19
  Propter: It was bad. It was bad.
• 1:25:20
  George: Reading everything off of paper and poorly.
• 1:25:27
  Ed: Yeah. Yeah. I've never seen someone who was like... Because obviously, I have been in front of a camera in my life, and either you know what you're talking about, or you are good on camera, or you are both, and somehow she is neither.
• 1:25:43
  Ed: I think it was Patrick Wyman who observed this on Bluesky first, but just completely unprepared, staring down the barrel of a camera, having no idea what she's talking about, having no idea what any of the questions asked of her were. Just comprehensively,
• 1:25:59
  Ed: maybe she is secretly a genius, but she was as unprepared as any human being I have ever seen in front of a camera. Like, we're talking about, like, man -on -the -street interviews being more coherent than that, including the ones where they were scared of the camera.
• 1:26:14
  Lowtax: And with the outfit, it looks like, she looks like she was dragged out of, like, a party at Mar -a -Lago or something, which is, I assume, how this came to be. I thought you were going to say off the nearest boat.
• 1:26:28
  Lowtax: Yeah, it was very... It was nautical. Nautical. yes
• 1:26:32
  Propter: very nautical anyway there was later controversy later as in the day after because again this story has taken place entirely within the confines of one week she managed she managed to get fired before saturday night live had a chance to
• 1:26:47
  Propter: skewer her did they still go ahead no uh i don't think they had a live show last night so i think you know it's a it's a one -week reprieve
• 1:26:58
  Ed: did you see
• 1:27:00
  Propter: maybe i'll come back like
• 1:27:01
  Ed: did you see the the whole she was fired in the middle of a wall street journal interview i did not i didn't i didn't read it all it up but i believe she yeah the moment katie
• 1:27:15
  Ed: zachariah found out her five -day stint as press secretary was over is the headline
• 1:27:20
  Lowtax: and that's in the wall street journal
• 1:27:23
  Ed: yeah jason miller a senior advisor to the president knocked on her door jd wanted to talk to her or something i can't read the rest of it because it's fine to pay well i think we can just you know two plus two equals five
• 1:27:36
  Lowtax: man ever since ever since trump went after jay powell the journal is just on his ass constantly well he's giving them such good uh ammunition
• 1:27:48
  Ed: as of late
• 1:27:51
  Ed: that was a segue for you proper
• 1:27:57
  Propter: so the other the other thing that's happening here is that
• 1:28:03
  Propter: zakaria has claimed to be a an attorney she went to law school she graduated law school she apparently took the bar but did not pass the bar and has never practiced law so this is something of a controversial claim
• 1:28:17
  Propter: i gotta say that i don't think this is something that i think people are kind of splitting hairs on this one but there's enough other reasons to be to be mad at her anyway that like yeah
• 1:28:28
  Lowtax: i don't i don't really care if she's an attorney like i i care that she's a moron i don't i don't care that she's an attorney or that she's not an attorney i don't care if she lies about it
• 1:28:39
  Propter: anyway so she is she has managed to sufficiently embarrass the shameless trump administration to get canned within a week it's a new record it's always the women right like it's it's it has been it has been exclusively with i think
• 1:28:54
  Propter: the one exception of what's his name who wasn't the guy who leaked the signal chat to jeffrey goldberg
• 1:29:03
  Propter: it has been exclusively women who've gotten fired by this administration so far which is all the more impressive because there are not that many women in this administration so
• 1:29:12
  Ed: aren't there rumors about suzy wiles yes tax at the stage
• 1:29:17
  Lowtax: yes because she opposed appointing zikaria wouldn't
• 1:29:23
  Propter: happen to nicer people she's she's still fighting breast cancer or something too right like she's got some things going on you know we'll see but it seems like at this stage of trump's deterioration he doesn't he
• 1:29:37
  Propter: is he is preferentially casting women out of his sight so
• 1:29:43
  Ed: that's how you're gonna
• 1:29:44
  Propter: loop around to the go
• 1:29:49
  Propter: on god
• 1:29:51
  Lowtax: damn propter like that man propped her I'll allow it
• 1:29:59
  Ed: but
• 1:30:01
  Lowtax: that's magnificent
• 1:30:05
  Lowtax: we've also
• 1:30:06
  Propter: had Trump at recent rallies Trump is rallying, he's going around the country as our indefatigable leader, who has been talking a lot about men's butts, specifically this has
• 1:30:21
  Propter: been a topic for him that he has been talking about how he he never does this, but he's going to talk about how handsome men are he's going to talk about how he was noticing men's bodies
• 1:30:36
  Propter: it's a little uncomfortable
• 1:30:38
  Lowtax: all of you guys on blue sky and i haven't looked at it all of you guys on blue sky are always like be gay do crimes and then trump does it you guys get mad he did it out of order he he did
• 1:30:51
  Ed: the crimes first yeah yeah there's a there's a method to these things the
• 1:30:58
  George: new york times headline for this is in midterm campaign's final stretch trump can't stop praising men's bodies and i just like
• 1:31:09
  Propter: we did want him to be more positive
• 1:31:14
  Ed: the only way this could be better is if that headline was in the washington post
• 1:31:21
  Lowtax: i mean he did that he did that rally in 24 where he talked about arnold palmer's junk Yeah. Look, we all saw the
• 1:31:30
  Ed: signs. Experioration, not Arnold Palmer stroke.
• 1:31:36
  George: I'm going to be honest.
• 1:31:39
  George: It kind of makes me feel weird. Like, yeah, it makes me feel weird that the paper of record, such as that dubious distinction exists, is focusing on
• 1:31:54
  George: the president's homoerotic,
• 1:31:59
  George: not asphyxiation but fixation no that that's proctor's earlier blue white guys
• 1:32:09
  George: but like i just it feels kind of vaguely homophobic to me to be making a big deal of this like is that just me am i like am i like kind of squishy you know lib on this or like what do we what do we
• 1:32:23
  George: think here i
• 1:32:25
  Propter: mean it's awkward for everyone it's awkward as hell
• 1:32:30
  Propter: like i think i think the right way to view this is is is a sexual harassment rather than as a sexuality pivot okay
• 1:32:37
  Ed: that's
• 1:32:37
  George: fair that's very
• 1:32:38
  Ed: like yes i
• 1:32:42
  Lowtax: want i want proctor thrown into the anacostia for saying sexuality pivot with regard to donald trump
• 1:32:54
  Propter: right anyway
• 1:32:55
  Ed: but like he's doing this in like campaign speeches i think sexual harassment is a pretty good description
• 1:33:03
  Propter: like it's gotta be it's gotta be weird for the guys involved extremely and
• 1:33:07
  Ed: it's the president i feel like we have to like reiterate that the president is doing this right
• 1:33:16
  Propter: yeah to be clear there are presidents who have done this before and it's been weird
• 1:33:20
  Lowtax: yeah although i agree with george that the new york times jumping on this is is weird and that yeah the headline there i haven't read the article but the
• 1:33:35
  Lowtax: headline there does feel like kind of at least a little bit homophobic i mean it's it's the new york times they're
• 1:33:42
  Ed: evil yeah so yeah but also like i don't know like it it seems super super weird that like we're why is this a topic of conversation
• 1:33:57
  Propter: like look at it
• 1:34:02
  Propter: would not be a problem for me if the president were secretly gay it is a problem that his mind is deteriorating yeah like
• 1:34:09
  Lowtax: yes and
• 1:34:10
  Propter: and it and and and his his inhibitions are lowering and we are getting more and more you know trump bared to the world and he's
• 1:34:26
  Propter: still got the nuclear
• 1:34:27
  Ed: football man like yeah like i will never feel bad for donald trump on anything there is literally nothing that could happen to this man that would make me that that would like evoke sympathy for this fractal piece of shit. But
• 1:34:41
  Ed: this is close. They just keep running him out there. Yep. You guys all like running
• 1:34:53
  Ed: him out there and he has one leg. Right? Yeah.
• 1:34:58
  Ed: This is Elder. used no but i mean i but also like how can they keep running him out there
• 1:35:06
  Lowtax: right but he wants to be out there like he's gonna write him
• 1:35:11
  Propter: he loves
• 1:35:11
  Lowtax: they're gonna write him
• 1:35:12
  Propter: as long as they can and he wants to be ridden and i
• 1:35:14
  Lowtax: i actually oh
• 1:35:15
  George: my god
• 1:35:16
  Lowtax: and
• 1:35:20
  Lowtax: that's
• 1:35:21
  George: the face
• 1:35:21
  Lowtax: ed is making right now i took a drink exactly as he said
• 1:35:26
  Ed: that it
• 1:35:32
  Ed: was a lot of work not to just my entire desk
• 1:35:38
  George: alright should we call it there yeah that's probably a show okay so tonight you got us in full form you got college football you got you learned some stuff about chips and decision
• 1:35:53
  George: models you learned some stuff about the North Carolina early vote and then you got a disastrous review of whatever Trump is doing so if you liked any of that give us a rating a review share us around
• 1:36:07
  Ed: also name these guys into going to the movies because I kind of want to talk about that
• 1:36:13
  George: I'm not going to be able to see that this week we're moving in with my in -laws on Tuesday so yeah do the floor refinishing not because we lost the house we're losing the house but for a good
• 1:36:28
  George: reason and it's temporary
• 1:36:29
  Ed: temporarily
• 1:36:30
  George: yeah yeah yeah so wish me luck on that and it'll be good we'll be able to do some home -cooked meals which we haven't been able to do because our kitchen's been torn apart for two months so anyhow back to the subject matter at hand which is this has been normal men and in
• 1:36:45
  George: charlotte i'm george in
• 1:36:48
  Lowtax: dc i'm proctor in outer florida i'm low -tech speedrun enjoyer in boston i'm ed and And all claims
• 1:36:55
  Ed: of normal men
• 1:36:58
  Ed: shall not be honored for this week.
• 1:37:01
  George: Stay as normal as humanly possible, y 'all.