Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - What Is America’s Role In The World? + Trump Is Driving Instability & Chaos Around The Globe

Transcript

Full Episode - What Is America’s Role In The World? + Trump Is Driving Instability & Chaos Around The Globe · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, artisonal pastries, and
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: nutrients antioxidants. There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: variety box, they have a gluten free box, a vegan box,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: and a new protein box. I will tell you I
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: have done the gluten free box. I have done it
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: a second time. I have also used the code, the
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: todcast code. If you use the promo code toodcast at checkout,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: you get thirty dollars off. I've already used it as
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: a gift to somebody else who loves this bread. It
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: is hard to find good gluten free bread. It is fantastic.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: They give you step by step instructions.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: I really dig this.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: There is nothing like having an artesion bakery in your
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: freezer to chase away the winter chill. Now is the
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: best time to stay in and enjoy some comforting homemade
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: meals with Wildgrain. I obviously highly recommend it. It is
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: worth giving Wildgrain to try.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Right now.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Wildgrain is offering my listeners thirty dollars off your first
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: box plus free croissants for life. Come on when you
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: go to wildgrain dot com slash podcast to start your
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: subscription today. That's thirty dollars off your first box and
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: free croissants for life when you visit wildgrain dot com
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: slash podcast, or simply use the promo code podcast at checkout.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Hello Aaron, Welcome to my Thursday episode of the Chuck Podcast.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Word of warning, this is gonna feel a bit foreign
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: policy heavy, but frank you know we are the risk.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: As my guest today will let you know Ian Bremer
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: of the Eurasia Group. I've had him on before. He's
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: one of you knows. He's somebody that I will will
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: turn into one of my SNL five timers in the
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: podcast five Timer Club. I don't think we're at five
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: times yet. But if you counted my previous iterations of
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: this podcast, I think we would get to the five timers.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: But does Ian and I do it tour the world?
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: We start in the Western hemisphere and and go through
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: all the variety of hot spots we talked this week,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: So yes, we know things could be moving already. For instance,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: you have President Trump walking back threats on Iran. He
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: says he's got assurances that the killing of protesters has stopped.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: He doesn't say where he got those assurances, how he
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: got those assurances, But what it really tells me is
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: he wanted to walk back the threat because he knew
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: it was very complicated. What were you going to strike?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Where were you going to strike? He already did the
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: nuclear hit. Are you're going to go after more of
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: the nuclear sites? What were you going to do to
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: send that message? What were you going to do that
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: would not And you know, of course, people got really
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: nervous a couple of hours before I'm taping this because
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: suddenly our basin cutter. We were moving folks basically preparing
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: for a retaliation, potential retaliation from Iran. So it was
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: making people think this was imminent and that something was
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: about to happen. And then literally an hour after that report,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: we had the President come out indicating that he had
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: gotten this assurance. So but look, there's a lot of
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: moving parts. We also know that the administration met with
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Danish officials and it's a stalemate. I should read you.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I think this is it is. This is Donald Trump
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: real estate negotiator. Here, I will read you this tweet.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: The United States needs greenland for the purpose of national security.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: This idea that the so called dome that protects Israel,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: that we helped, of course fund, and that has been
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: fairly successful at keeping Israel safe from missile attacks, that
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: somehow this is something that can essentially be built, and
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: if you're old enough, you'll start hey, this has the
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: feel of Star Wars too, right, which was what Reagan
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: called it back in the day, felt like more like
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: a financial boondoggle that was only going to make a
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: bunch of defense contractors rich. And even the Golden Dome
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: feels like it's a boondoggle that's likely only going to
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: make a bunch of defense contractors rich.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: But I digress.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: So he brings up his Golden dome, and then he
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: adds this NATO should be leading the way for us
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: to get it. Referring to Greenland, he says, if we don't,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Russia or China will, and that is not going to happen.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: And then he continues to argue militarily, without the vast
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: power of the United States, much of what I've built
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: during my first term and am now bringing to a
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: new and even higher level, NATO would not be an
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: effective force or deterrent, not even close. They know that,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: and so do I. NATO becomes far more formidable and
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: effective with Greenland in the hands of the United States.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Anything less than that is unacceptable. Thank you for attention
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: to this matter. Okay, So what is he really saying here?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: If you want to read between the lines, he's basically saying,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: so North America Treaty Organization, it's a mighty fine multilateral
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: agreement you got. There be a shame if it if
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: it was destroyed. So here are my terms if you
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: want the single most important member of NATO to stay
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: in NATO. Now is he serious on this? We know
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: he's serious about Greenland. Is he serious about pulling out
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: a NATO? Is he really serious about that. Would the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: US Senate, you know that that would be a line
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: in the sand. The idea that he's you know of,
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: and he's not quite saying it, but he certainly is
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: implying it that he wants to hold NATO membership hostage
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: in exchange for control of Greenland. I would say this
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: is a non starter, except, as we all know, it
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: has been astonishing how many countries have been to his
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: will at times. Whether Europe will do this, I don't
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: think they will. I think this is going to be
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: their line in the sand. But and I'm not sure
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: just buying Greenland is going to be considered something that
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: is feasible, if you will. But let's talk about the reality.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: You know, this.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Might be easier to make happen if people that lived
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: in Greenland wanted to leave the Kingdom of Denmark, but
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: they do not. And of course, the more Donald Trump
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: saber rattles about Greenland, the more apparently it has made
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Greenlanders more defiant about this, and it has made Danes
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: more defiant about this, and it's likely to make Europeans
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: more defying about this. So this Greenland situation, I think
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: is a lot more serious and I'll fully confess that
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I vacillate between snickering when I hear about this Greenland
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: thing and then realizing, my god, is this the thing
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: that's going to completely sever our relationship with Europe for good?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin couldn't have asked for a better scenario, right,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: What does Putin want more than anything else? The end
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: of NATO. So that is why even uttering a sort
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: of threat like this, essentially the old that's a mighty
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: nice it's a mighty nice military pact you got there,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: defense pact they got there, be ashamed of something happened
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: to it that he's dangling that and then trying to say, hey,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: if you put it in our hands, then hey, then
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: NATO's going to be in great shade. Then you're going
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: to get everything you want there. So look, I don't
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: think we're taking Greenland militarily, right, that seems to be
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: off the table. But it does seem as if he's
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: trying to find a way to buy it, right, either
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: you buy it directly or you buy it indirectly via
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: threats in NATO, but essentially it becomes some sort of
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: financial transaction.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: But this is.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: This is on a level that you're just sitting there going,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: what are we doing? And this is not going to
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: be good for the long run for the United States.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: But it sort of gets it to a larger issue,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: right the American Bublic isn't gonna you know, politically, everything
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: he's doing here is not good politics for him, not
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: because the country doesn't want Greenland, or not because people
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: think Maduro's a good guy, or not because they What
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: it really is is, anytime presidents are more focused on
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: anything that's not in the United States of America, while
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: you have an economy that most people don't like, like
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: the economy we currently have, you're setting yourself up for
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: While he's focused on this, you know, he's not focused
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: on grocery prices. While he's focused on this, he's not
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: focused on lowering electric bills. So all, you know, the
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: more time that he spends on Greenland, the more time
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: that he spends saber rattling with Iran, the more time
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: he spends even talking about toppling the regime in Cuba.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: It is the message being sent to everybody outside the
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: state of Miami, which for those of you that wonder
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: what I refer to as the state of Miami.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: It's an old Howard Schnellenberger ism. Yes, I have hurricanes
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: on the brain. Deal with it. Where he used to
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: say those three counties in South Florida, Palm Beach County,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Broward County, in Dade County. As far as football recruiting
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: purposes were, it's the state of Miami. Well as far
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: as caring about Latin American politics, that's the state of
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Mia too.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: And so where's Donald Trump's vacation home. Uh, in the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: state of in the in the in the Palm Beach district,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: in the state of Miami. So you know, he's got
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: a feedback loop of essentially former ex you know, Cuban exiles,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Venezuelan exiles, all big money people who have been working
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: him at mar A Lago. So you know, he hears that
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: and thinks what he's doing is really popular over there.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: But in the rest of the country it may not
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: be unpopular getting rid of Maduro, but it is not
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: seen as a priority.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: On that front. But it does.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: You know what, what what this really begs for is
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: a longer conversation about, all right, what we're really having here,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: and we haven't and I wish we would have this debate,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: and I don't even think we're going to have it
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: in our next presidential campaign. I wish we would, but
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: I don't see it coming.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Which is what should.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Be America's role in the world. And I want to
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: share with you some highlights of an extraordinarily important i'd
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: call it a policy paper that's been put out by
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the Council on Foreign Relations, authored by one of their
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: senior analysts, the Henry Kissinger Fellow for Foreign Policy. It's
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: a gentleman by the name of Robert Blackwell. I've known
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: him a long time. He's one of the he is
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: He's basically, you know, part of that circle of you know.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I've always said, you know, before Trump, much of American
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: form policy was fairly bipartisan, meaning Clinton's national security advisor,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: you know, Clinton's national security advisor, George W. Bush's national
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: security advisor, Barack Obama's national security advisor, would agree on
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the of the goals, even agree on
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the tactics to use. There'd be disagreements
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: on what to do here and what to do there,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: but there was generally agreement these are priorities, these are
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: not we should be this free trade alliance over here,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: et cetera. And Robert Blackwell is from that school more
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: on the Republican side for a while, has sort of
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: shifted over as a lot of sort of ex Republicans,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: if you will, have shifted over in the Trump era,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: because this is you know, it's not just it's less
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: you know, it's not just the character and ethics of
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Trump in the foreign policy community. I mean, Trump's an isolationists, right,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: and he is believing in this Great Powers debate that
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: that's what this is, and then that's what our foreign
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: policy should be. He's not a multilateralist, right, and by
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: the way, he's never been a multilateralist. Even when he
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: was first dabbling in politics back in the late eighties,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: he was upset about.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: You know, trade agreements with Japan.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: So he's never been big on any kind of multilateralism
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: in general. So this is why we should take his threat.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Why he doesn't care about the future of NATO, right,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: he could take it or leave it. And that is
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: why in his sort of why his willingness. Right, when
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: you speak to any gambler, if you're willing to gamble something,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: if you're willing to gamble your house. Gamble your car means.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: You really don't love your house. You really don't love
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: your car.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: He's willing to gamble this NATO alliance over Greenland. It's
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: less about his desire for Greenland and more I think
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: telling that he just doesn't care whether NATO lat He
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: doesn't view it because he doesn't view Russia as a
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: threat that is to be contained, where NATO obviously does,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: and considering what Russia's been doing in Ukraine, I think
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: that it is certainly that. But I want to give
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: you a few highlights of this. You should go read it.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: It's on the Council on Foreign Relations, but it's a
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: tour de force and I'm just giving you some top
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: lines here of it. Let me just lay out his
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: sort of you know, he sort of sets the table,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: and I think this line here sort of sums it
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: up pretty well. Black Wull Rights. We throw around the
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: phrase foreign policy chaos a lot, but what we're really
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: living through right now is something more fundamental, a collapse
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: of consensus about what America's role in the world even
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: is he You know, that says what I was just
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: trying to explain better than how I just explained it. Right,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: We had a consensus right, frankly, from Nixon to Carter,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: from Carter to Reagan, from Reagan to Bush Bush to Clinton,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Clinton to Bush Bush to Obama. It was it was
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: And if you had a President Romney it would have
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: been similar. If you had a President Carry it would
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: have been similar. If you had a President Hillary Clinton,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: it would have been similar. And you saw it sort
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: of some similarities with Biden. So because there was a consensus,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: the consensus being multilateralism is good. Free trade, for the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: most part, has only been more positive and negative. Now,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: obviously it's that globalization. It's been free trade that has
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: been seen as as it has been weaponized politically internally.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: We can have a longer debate about free trade. But
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: what has not worked for you know, the expansion of
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: free trade has helped America's bottom line hard stop. More
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: people are doing well. All of that is true. The
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: problem is places like Ohio and Iowa have been gutted
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: while places like Texas and Alabama have thrived. Right, it's
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: you know, so it has been uneven and then when
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: that has overlapped with our competitive political arena.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: It is perhaps.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Made the trade issue almost higher up and sort of
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: made the idea of America first a bit more appealing,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: So I understand why it has gone. So let me
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: sort of outline the stakes he sets, As we've got
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: China is rising, Russia's destabilizing Europe, Middle East volatility, we
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: have this fragmentation in the global trade environment, and there's
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: just domestic exhaustion in the United States with leadership in general,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: the institutional leaders, all of our leaders of institutions. It's
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: not just politics, but it's all around. So as he
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: points out what's missing as a grand strategy, right, we
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: don't really have currently an operating system underneath our foreign
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: policy because we don't have a consensus on what it
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: should be. And in fact, what this really means is
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: we're going to go back a little bit to how
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: you know, to the rudimentary foreign policy of the late
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: nineteenth century early twentieth century, where it's going to change
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: depending on who the president is a lot, not a little.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Where starting with starting really with FDR and going forward,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: it didn't change much from Truman to Eisenhower, Eisenhower to
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Kennedy and so on and so forth, because we had
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: a theory of the case, we operate under it and
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: we proceeded. Obviously, ever since the fall of the Berlin
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Wall coupled with nine to eleven, there have been cracks
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: in this theory of the case going forward, hence the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: situation we're in now. So Grand strategy, right, what we
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: need is an agreement on how a country uses all
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: of its power military, economic, diplomatic, technological, and yes, moral.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: This is not necessarily coming up with a doctrine or
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: a slogan or a campaign promise. It is simply trying
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: to come up with a theory of how a nation
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: stays safe and prosperous over time. That's ultimately why you
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: need a foreign policy to support the safety, security, and
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: prosperity of your nation, pure and simple. Okay, And you
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: know what, You're not going to have a grand strategy
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: without trade offs?
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Can your nation build everywhere? Can you spread democracy everywhere?
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: When do you pick and choose rights? That's what your
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: trade offs are. Currently, as he puts it, that there
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: are five competing schools of thought of what the Grand
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: strategy should be. He calls one the primacy strategy. That
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: America is the undisputed global superpower. We should prevent any
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: peer competitor from emerging. That means you, China, we should
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: have heavily heavy military dominance and do nation building if
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: it's necessary. Now, one could argue that this kind of
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: is actually what Trump would prefer, right, that he's less
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: an isolationist and more of a believer in the primacy
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: right great powers if you will.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Blackwell argues that the reason that view is a faltering
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: view is that China already is a peer competitor and
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the idea of a unipolar moment is over right. That
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: moments seem the end of history. Right right after the
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: fall of Berlin Wall, it seemed like we were head
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: to do a unipolar moment, but as it turns out,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: we will not. Then there's the idea of liberal internationalism,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: which is arguably the world we did live in for
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: about the last fifty years of the twentieth century. The
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: rules based order, alliances, institutions, promotion of democracy. Military use
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: is robust, but a last resort. This is struggling because
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: this hasn't stopped the rise of China and what China's
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: done in the South China Sea. It didn't stop Russia
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: from invading Ukraine, and it didn't stop in Iran from
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: building this regional proxy group of terrorists that sort of
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: terrorized the Middle East, and it didn't These institutions didn't
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: have the power to stop these things. This episode of
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Quints and
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: I love me Some Quints. New Year, colder days. This
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: is the moment your winter wardrobe really has to deliver.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: If you're craving a winter reset, start with pieces truly
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: made to last season after season. Quint springs together premium materials,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: thoughtful design, and enduring quality so you stay warm, look sharp,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: and feel your best all season long. Quince has everything
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: you need men's Mongolian cashmere sweaters.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: I have one.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: I have to say, really into it. They have wool coats, leather,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: and swayed outerwear that actually hold up to daily wear
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: and still look good. Their outerwear is especially impressive. Think
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: down jackets, wool coats, and Italian leather outerwear that keep
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: you warm when it's actually cold. Each piece made from
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: premium materials, Quints delivers the same quality as luxury brands
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: at a fraction of the price. The result is classic
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: styles you'll love that hold up year after year. You
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: know me, I love me and my quarter zips. Quince
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: has quite a few of them. They're great, They're both
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: light and warm. There's nothing harder than business casual.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Right, you get these things?
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: What can I wear? What can you wear at a meeting?
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: What do you wear on a zoom? I have to say.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: It's as if Quinn sort of says, hey, look we've
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: got the modern sort of working wardrobe ready for you,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: clothing that looks stylish, looks good, but is actually practical
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: and isn't going to break the bank. So refresher winter
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: wardrobe with quints go to quins dot com slash chuck
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: for free shipping on your order and three hundred and
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: sixty five day returns. And it's also available in Canada.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: That's qui nce dot com, slash chuck, free shipping and
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five day returns quints dot com
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: slash chuck.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: Then, of course.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: There's the idea of some form of isolationism or or restraint,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: if you will pulling back, reduce commitments overseas. Let this
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: be more regional, Let these regions balance themselves for your wars,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: lower costs. The problem with that is security vacuums as
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: Blackwell rights rarely stay empty, and whenever the US steps back,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: rivals step forward, allies hedge, or they arm themselves. Right,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: that's not good. Then there's the American nationalism, which is
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: another sort of thing what Trump's kind of doing, which
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: is focusing inward Western hemisphere first, which is how they're
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: getting the isolationist crowd into Venezuela or Greenland right now.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: But that means protectionism, bilateral trade agreements, alliances are more liabilities. Well,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: the problem with that is you have to assume that
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: America's prosperity and security can somehow be separated from the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: global order. Right, if we separate ourselves, are we going
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: to be the economic superpower anymore? And then he throws
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: out one and he calls trump Ism. So it's basically
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: cherry picking all of them, right, which is it's personalized
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: transactional form, policy deals over alliances, tariffs, our leverage, spheres
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: of influence, the institutions. We don't need them because you've
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: got I loan can fix it.
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: The problem with that, of course, is it's not a strategy.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: It's literally the president's whims. We're going to help the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: protesters in Iran up. I've been assured that protesters are
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: no longer being killed.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: Okay, I'm out.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: So it's a it's it's you know, we're not in
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: a So the question is, can you come up with
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: a grand strategy that in it that can somehow united
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: divided America to pursue sort of the same goal, right,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: to support America's security and prosperity, and at the same
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: time help create a stable world. So his answer, Blackwell's
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: answer is resolute global leadership, right, And this is really
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: the heart of his report. He calls it a hybrid
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: strategy that he's simply up's reality right, So it borrows
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: from the military seriousness of his outline of primacy. It
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: does believe we should strengthen certain alliances and institutions that
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: were hallmarks of the liberal internationalism. But we wouldn't get
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: into nation building hint, hint, Venezuela. There wouldn't be you know,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: disengagement is not cost free, and it wouldn't have performative
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: deal making. But you'd have to accept some And this
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: is where I think Trump is leaning, and I think
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: you've seen arguably this is where Barack Obama was. But
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: it wasn't politically politically popular to say it at the time.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: But in this case, what Blackwell is saying, you've got
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: to just assume the following. China is a peer competitor.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: This is not a temporary problem that can be that
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: can be changed, that can be democratized. It's not going
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: to happen. And yet what you know, there's nothing the
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: United States can do to to sort of to sort
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: of reshape how China deals with its population. It's not
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: going to matter. But his core assumptions are China's a
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: peer competitor, deal with it. Power does still matter. Alliances
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: do matter because it multiplies power. The institutions matter as
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: long as it's backed by strength. And don't promote democracy.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Don't use the military as an attempt to promote democracy.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: I e. Iraq.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: As he writes, force is justified to to protect vital interests,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: not to remake societies. And what's interesting here is is
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: it Trump kind of stumbles into this. I think this
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: is where Jade Vance really is. I think he's one
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: of the purest This is not where Marco Rubi is.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Marco Rubio, you know, talked Trump into doing Venezuela because
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: he does want to remake a society. He does want
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: to remake Venezuela. He does want to remake Cuba, and
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: by the way, Donald Trump and a whole bunch of
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: others would like to remake Iraan. So it is I
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: think this is I do think this is a key
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: point though, because every time we've tried to involve ourselves
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: in remaking society, particularly if we're on our own doing it,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: it has not gone well. Right, I mean, Iraq's the
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: best example. But frankly, the reason why there's so much
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: skepticism of what America is doing in the western hetmospheres.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: You know, we have a history of trying to do
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: this in Latin America and it is not gone well. Now,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: he still think what the reason Blackwell thinks that America
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: essentially still can can control the rules of the global
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: order is as follows. Where the United States alone own
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: is twenty six percent of the globe's GDP. We still
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: are the world's most powerful military, We still are leading
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: the world in AI, in advanced tech. The dollar is
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: the dominant currency, despite what all these kill the Fed
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: people are trying to do. Though, if you want to
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: kill the FED, that would weaken the dollar and weaken
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the United States, and China could never create a global
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: alliance network quite like how the United States could do
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: it right. China couldn't create an alternative block. Yes, there
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: are the Brick Nations of Brazil, Brick Briic, which was
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: this loose confederation that was trying to establish itself as
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: a counter to the G seven back in the day.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: It's the B is Brazil, the R is Russia, the
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: I as India, the SA is China. But as we've seen,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: India and China are not necessarily ready to be to
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: be on the same page. Perhaps Russia and China are
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: for military strategic purposes, but I think there's a lot
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: of truth to that. There's only the United States can
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: create some alliances that could stick. You know, the TPP,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: that Transpacific Partnership that Obama and Hillary Clinton were trying
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: to create as a counterweight in Asia to China, that
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: became suddenly both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump just sort
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: of attacked it, and then Hillary Clinton backed away from it.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: The Republican Party backed away from it. This was going
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: to be Asian Native Now we were going to call
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: it a trade pack, but it was going to be
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the building blocks of essentially a security pact.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: As well.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: Right, once you're aligned on economics, you're going to be
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: aligned on security because you both have the same things
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: to lose. There was it is probably one of the
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: greatest missed opportunities, and perhaps in forty years, fifty years,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: we will go back and point to it as one
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: of the just biggest missions that we made, one of
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the you know, there's a lot of bad consequences of
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: the fork in the road of the twenty sixteen election.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: This could be a much bigger one than we ever
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: talk about. So he concludes, you know, he's with the following.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: He says, he judges the strategies. They got to judge
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: each strategy on these three things. Prosperity, security, and legitimacy. Right,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: open trade still matters, and it's better for the United
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: States to have open trade. It's worse for our economy
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: when we don't. Innovation will always trump protectionism. You can't
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: protect an industry from competitors. You can't do that. You
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: think you can, but you can't, and if you try.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, we're finding out an AI right. We
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: were trying to hoard all these chips here in the
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: United States, trying to make it harder for China to
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: move to compete with US on AI and yet their
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: deep seek model is doing what competing with our guys
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: on AI. Tariff's weaken long term growth. That's just a fact, right.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: The higher the tariffs are, weaker the economies get in
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: both countries that are having a terrified i'm.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: The security front.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: If you have a forward defense, you're more likely to
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: prevent war.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: Right. The more.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Alliances we have around the world. That that was the
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: whole point of NATO that hopefully it would never have
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: to get involve itself in a hot war with Russia,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: that there were so many bases strewn throughout Europe that
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Russia wouldn't dare right, which is why there is a
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: fair what if question which is as follows, what if
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: the United States, when they got Ukraine to get rid
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: of its nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: had also invited Ukraine into NATO, then Russia never invades
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: and we would have already had military basis inside of Ukraine.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Just something to think about on that front. But he
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: also believes the next grand strategy of sort of a
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: foreign policy that perhaps left and right can all agree on,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: is that we're going to have to accept that the
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Indo Pacific region is the central theater of this essentially
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: great power competition. So, as he argues, trump Ism has
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: burned legitimacy faster than it has gained leverage. Right, he
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: may have some short term wins with these tariff threats.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: He may be using the end of NATO as a
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: way to try to get Greenland. But what is he doing.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: He's eroding the relationship the United States has with Europe.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: And the next time we ask try to get Europe
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: involved in something, they're going to be skeptical to get
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: involved with the United States because hey, maybe President x
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: is work wants to work with the Europeans, but the
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: next president may not. So here's the uncomfortable truth that
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: this paper does leave us with, which is America doesn't
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: get to choose whether it shapes the world. All we
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: get to choose is whether we get to shape it
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: deliberately or not, or is it accidentally or is it chaotically.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: If the US retreats, someone else fills the vacuum. I've
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: used the phrase, you may not want America to be
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: the world's beat cop, but you're But if we're not
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: the world's beat cop, you're somebody else is going to
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: try to be and you're not going to like that.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: That's what filling a vacuum means there. And if the
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: US blusters, allies hedge, and we've now got allies hedging
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: all over the place. If the US leads with more
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: resolutely and with sort of a strategy that makes sense
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: and doesn't come across as chaotic, then suddenly we get
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: to preserve our leverage without having overreach. So look, I
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: think I think Blackwell's Deep Dive is something that everybody
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: running for president needs to read. They don't have to
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: agree with all of his recommendations, but I think the
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: larger vision he's trying to to to share here is
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: that look, we you know, I think putting it out
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: when he's doing it is essentially saying, look, this needs
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: to be the next presidential election. We need presidential candidates
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: that at least accept the premise we need a strategy
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: because Trump doesn't have one, and Trump's never going to
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: have one. Right, the story is Trump, It's always been Trump.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: The show is Trump. It's just personalized. You know, he
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: could be right now he's running a country, but he
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: could be running a gas station. It doesn't matter right
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: like he's that's everything is personalized here. So the reason
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: we need a grand strategy is for our even mid
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: and long term security, both physical security and economic security.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: So a grand strategy isn't about dominance or virtue. It's
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: about deciding which risks you choose to manage and which
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: risks you absolutely absolutely cannot afford to ignore. Right now,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: we don't have one. Trump Ism is in some ways
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: undoing a bunch of stuff. But the next president is
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: going to have to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: No one is saying we need to go backwards, but
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: we need something better than what we have now, and
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: we need something more realistic than what we have now.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: So look, Ian Bremer and I are going to get
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: get into more of this. We're going to get specific here.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: But this just literally Robert Blackwell's piece just hit. And
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: you know I'm a geek for this stuff, so I
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: dove right into it. Do check it out on the
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Council on Foreign Relations site. It's the type of sort
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: of rigorous scholarship that is necessary in this coin. Look,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: you're not getting this in your day to day news
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: feeds and all this stuff. You're not going to get
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: something like this, but the importance of an essay like this.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Robert Blackwell is somebody that presidential candidates for years have
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: gone to for frankly, to get educated about the world right.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: He's one of many of these folks in this sort
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: of in this foreign policy space.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: That have served that role.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: So this is why this is one of those pay
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: attention to it. I promise you things you read in
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: here today you're going to hear out of the mouths
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: of presidential candidates come twenty twenty seven or twenty eight.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: As you might imagine. I've got a few notebook items
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: that I've been sort of holding a bit, and also
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: a few things that I think.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: Are worth highlighting. Look about.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Late last month, I had a guest on named Adam Gentilsen.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: He was starting a new democratic think tank that was
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: a bit trying to be frankly, more mainstream, a little
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: less progressive. It's called the Searchlight Institute. So they put
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: out a memo about the issue of what happened in
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Minneapolis to Renee Good, and it was basically a recommendation,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: And the recommendation is don't fall for the abolish ice messaging.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Let me read from the memo and then I'll give
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: you my two cents after it. But I want to
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: read a bit from the memo so that you get
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: the full perspective. Here, look at they lay out what
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: happened to renee Good, and the memos rights as follows.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: This is not an incident that happened in isolation. The
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Trump administration has been deploying ICE agents, often in conjunction
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: with law enforcement personnel from other agencies like the FBIA CPB,
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: to cities all over the country in a concerted effort
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: to instill fear and immigrant communities. American citizens have been
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: collateral damage in this campaign. DHS personnel have fired their
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: weapons at least sixteen times this year during immigration enforcement actions,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: and ICE has erroneously detained at least one hundred and
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: seventy US citizens. This comes even as DHS is significantly
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: relaxed training and vetting requirements for new hires at ICE.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: This is something I've been obsessing over, guys, and it's
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: sprint to double the size of the agency. Those horrendous
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: recruiting ads I've been highlighting and telling you about, and
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: then this memo notes reducing the time they spend learning
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: the law on how to apply it safely at the
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Federal Law Enforcement Training Center from six months to six weeks.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: That's right, these new ICE agents instead of getting six
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: months of training, they're getting six weeks of training. You
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna You think that's good, You think that helps,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: and it's placed. And of course they've also placed as
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the memo rights unqualified political operatives and key positions that
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: have historically been designated for career law enforcement officials. Now
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: they get into the politics of this. Confronted by these excesses,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: some on the left have renewed their calls to quote
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: abolish ICE. Then the searchlight folks write this, but let's
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: be clear that advocating for abolishing ICE is tantamount to
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: advocating for stopping enforcement of all of our immigration laws
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: in the interior the United States, a policy position that
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: is both wrong on the merits and at odds with
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: the American public on the issue. Instead, Democrats should embrace
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: an aggressive plan to rebuild ICE based on two concepts
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: reform and retrain. I'm going to cut through a little
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: bit further here. First of all, they go through and
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: they believe that in some ways the Trump administration is
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: setting a trap for Democrats because they have used lawless
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: tactics in their attempts at enforcing immigration policy. But as
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: they write, responding to this kind of lawlessness by saying
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: you want to abolish ICE is exchanging one kind of
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: lawlessness for another. It means that you support getting rid
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: of the agency responsible for enforcing immigration and custom laws,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: creating a lawless system where people who enter the country
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: illegally can stay here indefinitely, leaving no agency charged with
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: finding and removing them. This will inevitably incentivize others to
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: come to the United States illegally. Abolish ICE is not
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: some proxy for more humane immigration enforcement, or to change
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: ICE's culture to adhere to do process, or to impose
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: accountability on rogue officers.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Is it's advocating.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: For an extreme And then they continue, unless you truly
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: believe that the United States should not have an agency
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: that enforces immigration and customs laws within our borders, and
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: you want to increase illegal immigration, you should not say
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: you want to abolish ICE. And then it goes on
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: to say, look, this should be a moment learn from
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: the defund mistake. So when it comes to ICE, they're saying,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: say what you mean. And the point was during the
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: whole defund the police, that is actually not what those
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: that were accused of wanting to defund the police were
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: actually advocating. They weren't advocating to get rid of the police.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: They were advocating a reallocation of resources. They were advocating
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: a better sense of training. But that isn't what people
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: were hearing. They were just simply hearing defund. So this
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: is their alternative. An aggressive plan can be summed up
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: in two words. They argue reform and retrain. Reform ice
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: root and branch, including reminding people we are a nation
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: of laws that there shouldn't be they should these guys
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: shouldn't be allowed to wear masks, that no one is
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: above the law, there is not indiscriminate enforcement, which is
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: clearly politically motivated indiscriminate enforcement, and there should be an
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: outside oversight to this. It should not be done internally.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: And then retrain. What do they mean by retrain? Ice
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: officers need to undergo rigorous and recurring training on use
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: of force policies so that they can understand the law.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: I should be trained on community policing practices.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: They advocate.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: They should identify and weed out the bad apples, rescind
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: Trump administration of policies that have significantly relaxed vetting and
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: standards for new employees of ICE, and then right size ICE.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: One could argue it is suddenly becoming too big, because
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: it does look like it's becoming some sort of personalized
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: law enforcement agency. Anyway, look these you know, I understand
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: the passion of this. You heard me the other day saying,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm not you know, be careful of the
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: abolished ICE messaging, because this is the issue isn't ICE.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: The issue is who's in charge of it. The issue
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: is who's in charge of policy, who's in charge of training.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: We've gone we're the recruiting videos are using the wrong language,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: recruiting the wrong type of person. They're incentivizing a certain
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: type of muscularity in law enforcement that actually comes across
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: as pretty unconstitutional. But I'm very curious to see if
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: these you know, this was this was the whole point
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: of why Gentlesen started this. He felt as if that
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: the a lot of the advocacy groups messaging we're leaning
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: too far to the left and not really talking to
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: the center. That's sort of you know, person that says, yeah,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: I don't. I don't want. You know, it goes to
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: what I've been saying, where they they agree with the
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: goal of what Trump is advocating, but they don't like
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: his tactics. And right now they think that the Democrats
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: don't share some.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Of those goals.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: And obviously, what search Licenses argument is is make it
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: about the tactics, don't make it about whether or not
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: we should have enforcement of our borders. I'll be curious
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: to see if this tamps down the abolished ICE rhetoric
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: or because of the passion and because of the frankly
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: the awfulness of what happened, do more voters and more
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: lawmakers think that ICE is irredeemable. All I would say is,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: if you get rid of ICE, I promise you you're
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: just going to want to have an agency that's similar
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: to it. Look, we've had periods of time where the
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: FBI was not trusted at all, and we've had periods
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: of time when you've had better leadership at the FB.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: I that it has been pristine and really trusted. Ditto
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: with the NYPD didto with You know, The point is
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: is that I don't think these institutions are irredeemable. You
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: just need to have better leadership, better training, and better accountability.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: It's it's again, I'm curious to see we're going to
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: have some growing democratic primaries. Do we you know is
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: this used as a wedge inside democratic primaries. We'll find
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: out in Texas, we may find out in Michigan, we
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: may find out in Maine. Or do you start having copycats?
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: Or look, the all of a sudden, all the primaries
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: in Minnesota are going to be fascinating to hear. It
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: may it may be something that primary voters they want
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the passion uh and the anger of abolish ice, right.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: It's like, you know, I'd say that's the equivalent of
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: punching a hole in drywall. Feels good for the moment,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: but then you've got to go to home depot and
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: figure out how to patch up the hole in your wall.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: So something to do on something to think about. And
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: I'm curious of your action here. If you think, hey,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: you know what, Chuck, let me tell you why they're
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: wrong and you're wrong about this and I should be abolished.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: I'd love to hear from you on this, remember, asked
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: Chuck at Thechucktodcast Dot com all right, let's sneak in
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: a break. When we come back my conversation with Ian Bremer.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: We tour the world. We begin in Venezuela. We touch
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: on Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti, Greenland, Ukraine, Aaran, Israel, the Gulf States, China, Taiwan.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure what we left out. We'll find out
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: after you listen to the listen to the interview. So
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: with that, let's get a quick break. Having good life
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: My mother, single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: figure out how am I going to pay for college
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: and lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: policy that we found wasn't a lot, but it was
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: important at the time, and it's why I was able
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: to go to college. Little did he know how important
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: that would be in that moment. Well guess what. That's
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: why I am here to tell you about Etho's life.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: They can provide you with peace of mind knowing your
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: family is protected even if the worst comes to pass.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Ethos is an online platform that makes getting life insurance
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: fast and easy, all designed to protect your family's future
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process, and it's
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam require you
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: just answer a few health questions online. You can get
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: a quote in as little as ten minutes, and you
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: can get same day coverage without ever leaving your home.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: You can get up to three million dollars in coverage,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: and some policies start as low as two dollars a
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: day that would be billed monthly. As of March twenty
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number one no
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect your family
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free quoted ethos
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. So again, that's Ethos dot com
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: slash chuck. Application times may vary and the rates themselves
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: may vary as well, but trust me, life insurance is
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: something you should really think about, especially if you've got
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: a growing family. How unsettled do you feel about the globe?
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: How unsettled do you feel about American politics? Obviously of
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: the year, I Deem twenty twenty six, A year of
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: living dangerously. I think, whether it's what we saw in Minnesota,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: feels like we're a spark away from something not good
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: in this country, and we have a world that feels
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: unsettled everywhere, whether it's Venezuela, whether it's Aron, whether it's Taiwan,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: whether it's Ukraine.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: Well, you get the picture.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: So who better to bring in to talk about all
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: the risk and the year of living dangerously that my
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Friendie and Bremer of your Raisier group and and Ian.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Look you you.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: I started off a bit glum for the year, and
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: you had you played a big role in that. Your
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: annual it's your annual risk list of top risks out there, frankly,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: only reinforced what I think what was already I was
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: sort of seeing domestically, and certainly I sort of refer
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: to myself these days as a political anthropologist when it
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: comes to domestic politics. But you've got your pulse on
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: international political science as well. So you painted a picture
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: of Look, I want to quote Doc Brown and in
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: a back to the future where we're going there are
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: no roads. I don't know where we're going, but I
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: know there are no roads, and we're headed somewhere that
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: by the end of this year you and I may
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: meet up again going holy shit, how did we get here?
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: I mean this, It's not like there isn't good news
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: out there, right. I mean, for example, last twenty years, most.
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: Of the people I know in the.
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: International affairs space thought that we were heading towards US
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: China confrontation, new Cold war, you know, could could lead
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: to something even worse than that.
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: That That's not where we are, right, I mean right.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: And I also think when we can talk about Iran
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: for a minute, we're about to see a Middle East
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: that maybe.
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: A whole new world in a good way. Long maybe
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: maybe I'd love to see that.
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: I think we're still We're still farther from that than
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: I'd like us to be. There's a lot of capacity
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: and willingness to press and a lot of Ronnie and
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: civilians that are dead today that weren't a week ago.
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: But still, I mean, it's not like everything in the
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: world is blowing up, and the response to the United
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: States is not purely destructive. I mean, frankly, you know,
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: the EU and Mercasore just did one of the world's
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: largest free trade deals that wouldn't have happened if it
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: wasn't for Trump.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Because they're I talked about this the last time I
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: had you on. I think Donald Trump's making Europe great again. Well,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't go that, I think, well, but the point
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: what I mean by it is Europe needed to stop
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: relying on the United States.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: So they need a kick in the ass. And they're
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: still not going to make it.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: But yes, I agree, and Donald Trump's presidency turned out
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: to be the kick of the ass that at least
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: they finally noticed.
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump is definitely that kick in the ass.
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: I think that's clear. I think that's clear.
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: For the Europeans, for the Canadians, for the Mexicans, for
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: some for the remaining regime in Venezuela. I mean, my god,
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: he represents a kick in the ass to an awful
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: lot of people.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: But of course, you know, the big thing is that
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: the uncertain we have seen the uncertainty, we've seen the risk,
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: and he is us right, I mean, that is that
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: is the reason why.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: Well, that's what's so, But that's not even you know,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: it's funny. You made it your top risk, and yet
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: I feel like two years ago, if you had done that,
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: it would have seen controversial. It would have been weird
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: if we weren't the top risk, right, shocking, Right, we
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: are at the center of everybody else's instability.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: Yep, Yep, yep, no questions. A weird place for America
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: to be, yep. But in part it is the.
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: Logical conclusion of decades of Americans of different stripes, increasingly
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: saying we don't like the role that we have carved
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: out for ourselves globally. We don't really believe in it
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: in different ways, whether it's foreign aid or promotion of
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: rule of law and democracy, or free trade or collective
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: security alliance is all these wars, So that that's a
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: big piece of it, right, And then there's the domestic
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: piece too, with two completely different worldviews.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Housed in one country. Right.
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: And and you know when those things start to really break,
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: when those assumptions are fundamentally questioned by a guy who is,
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: you know, thrives on being a chaos actor, then then
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: it's not a surprise that we're driving that.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: Uncertain Let's start in our hemisphere and then move. So
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: one of the things I like to correct with some
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: of my friends on the left actually is that there
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: hasn't been regime change in Venezuela. The regime is still
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: in power. Yes, right, they've only extracted one individual. How
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: do we get two individuals?
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: Come on, don't disparage the wife like that? Sure enough,
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: fair enough, fair enough?
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Where How how do we get to a better place
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: in Venezuela without American boots on the ground.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, let's face it, getting to a better
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: Venezuela with American boots on the ground might be more challenging, right,
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, given our recent experience in Venezuela is not Iraq, right,
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: It's not Afghanistan. It has recent experience with democracy, it
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: doesn't have massive internal sectarian divides. There are a lot
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: of exiled elites.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: That would love to be able to.
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: Come back, and the power asymmetries are massive with the
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: United States right there in the hemisphere, right, So, I mean,
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: there are lots of reasons to believe that, at least
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: in the near term, they are going to behave themselves
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: more because they understand the orls they are going to.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: They're going to listen to the Americans on oil.
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: They have freed a small number of political prisoners, but
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: high level prisoners. By the way, leaders of in the
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: opposition movement because Marco Rubio and others told them they
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: had to. So, you know, the early days on this
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: are without American troops, but with the credibility and presence
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: of all of that military capacity, and with the willingness
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: to prod the IMF to provide some support over time
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: and get some private sector companies with guarantees to actually
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: back them up, that there are reasons why in the
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: near term this will go well. The much more the
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: problem with Venezuela is much more about when we start
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: talking about actual power sharing, which the people want, you know, frankly,
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: Marco and others around Trump, even if Trump doesn't.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: Care, they want it.
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: And and yet the government, the existing regime will resist
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: that with every sinew of their body.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: My concern is that Trump doesn't care about the democracy piece.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: If the regime does what he asks, he's going to
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: be fine with leaving them in place.
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: Well, but I'm suggesting that that won't work right. In
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: other words, that when you have when you have that
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: many people in the country that now see a weaker,
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: more vulnerable military that's been bloodied up by the US,
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: and they overwhelmingly want their opposition in place, they will
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: clamor for it. That when you have a lot of
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: MAGA supporters in Mara a Lago who are themselves exiles,
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: that's a strong community.
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: They're going to be pushing for it.
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: Marco and others that really did organize the TikTok on
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: these attacks also they want it. And so I don't
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: even though Trump, Trump's the decider. Trump's got the power,
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: he's the president. But and he doesn't care. I agree,
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: he doesn't care about what kind of regime it is.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: But I think that he can't. He can't just ignore
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: that issue.
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: Do you see it?
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Like we help that there's elections in six months a year,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: what's your you know, is there anybody thinking about this?
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Like okay, when what's the soonest? We can actually hold
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: national elections?
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: Soonest is probably six months more realistic is twelve to eighteen.
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: And again, as they start talking about it, and it
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: won't be the first thing they discuss, but as they
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: get to that process, what I think we will see
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: is an effort by the military to give give on
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: many other grounds and obfuse gate, which is you know
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: what they've done before, reasons why it can't be done soon?
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: And here are the mechanism, and here are some candidates
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: we can't tolerate, and all sorts of ways to push out,
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: water down and ensure that they are the ones that
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: control everything. But ultimately, I'm not going to sit here
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: and tell you a power sharing agreement is impossible. You
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: couldn't just bring in the opposition and tell the military
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: you're out. But then again, we all know that Paul
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: Bremer doing that in a rock that was a disaster.
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: Like removing the Bathists, removing the security and the military
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: forces was what the US should have never done, never done.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: There are a handful of intriguing elections this year in
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Latin America, Columbia, Colombia is fascinating to me, in Brazil
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: or probably the two big ones. There's Peru as well.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: How much will anti Americanism be part of those campaigns?
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: Now?
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: And you know my great fear is, look, you know,
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm. I have a friend who does a lot
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: of work in Colombia has not been a big fan
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: of this. This political party is hopeful that the other
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: political party comes back. And I know that a lot
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: of American business folks feel that way. And it looks
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: like that had been a glide path.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: But now I.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Wonder does Trump and does our involvement in Venezuela spark
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: a backlash in a Colombia spark a backlash?
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah? No, and it doesn't.
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: So it's a good it's a really good question, especially
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: because we've seen that backlash change outcomes in Canada, right,
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: We've seen that backlash change outcomes in Australia in both cases,
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: and I.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: Would argue Lula's political standing has been strengthened due to Trump.
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: A little bit, a little bit much less so, but
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: a little bit definitely after Trump, you know, sort of
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: basically said we're gariffing you because of the bull jail
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: term that was handed down by the Supreme Court. Not
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: not Lula, right, but but actually in Latin America, in
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: these countries, number one issue overwhelmingly right now is domestic security,
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: and and that plays out so Bukele Nave in l
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: Salvador is by far the most popular leader, even though
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: he's a pro Trump guy. He's not popular because he's
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: pro Trump. He's popular because he's actually really like wielded
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: the fists in creating security.
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: And one could argue he's broken a lot of eggs
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: to make that omelet right, A.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: Lot of guys I had, all, uh, you'll appreciate this.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: I teach a class for usc UH here in d C.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: That's called how Washington Works. And last semester I had
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: a an El Salvadorian student who said, yeah, boy, my
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: parents and I don't speak about Bouqueta anymore. Like it
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: was just like and she said, basically, if you live
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: in al Savador, you love the guy. If you don't
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: live there, you don't and you're al Savador and you
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: don't like the guy. It's a it's a fascinating it's
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: like ninety percent local approval, and it's it's true approval, right,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: And it's.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: Just because she does.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: Look, it was so unsafe, right, It was so.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: That when Maduro gets taken out, and he is not
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: just a bad guy, but he is actually coordinating narco
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: cartels right across the region. And he also did lead
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: to the destabilization of a lot of countries, including Colombia
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: because of eight million right displaced Venezuelans. They are delighted
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: to see the back of Maduro and they want security
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: in their own countries. So I know, and the secondary
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: issue is the local economy. So I don't think that
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: a backlash. Mexico is a different story because it's so
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: integrated with the.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: US and their economy is not doing.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: Well though Shanebaum is actually quite popular. But for Columbia
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: and for Brazil, I don't actually think that the Trump
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: factor will be determinative and either of them.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: Well, it's been interesting. It's sort of like I and
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: this is where you sometimes have cross currents. There does
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: seem to be a general move, you know, and we've
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: seen this with Latin America. It's like a windshield wiper
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: when suddenly, you know, five countries move left, then five
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: countries move right, you know, and I feel like there's
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: a right word poll right now.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: But in Colombia, I mean, Petro got into that big
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: spat with Trump, and apparently the Trump administration was like
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: literally had targets and they were ready to engage in
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: unilateral strikes. And then Petro calls Trump and he pretends
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: that like he'd been begging for that call for weeks. Yeah,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: and he made it sound as if, oh, I didn't
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: even know Trump.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: Was gonna call me, and so thank god I wasn't
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: laid for it.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: But I mean, you know, we're going to get together
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: and it's going to be wonderful, and you know, suddenly
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: their buddies because he's been personally sanctioned by by the
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: United States, right, and it's a problem for him. He
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: really wanted the the other side of get the other
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: side of that potential conflict. And I think the likelihood
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: that his preferred candidate on the left can get through
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: a second.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: Round is it's there, but it's it's very low.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: You would expect the strong, you know, right, you don't
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: fear that anti Americanism could suddenly prop that left disc government.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: Nope, Nope's not playing out in any of the polls
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: right now, not at all.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: And Brazil, I just think is going to be a
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: close election.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: And it's going to be Bolsonaro's kid, right.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: It looks that way. That's just going to be a
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: fascinator putting forward fight.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: And they're now thinking about who his running mate for
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: vice president would be. But I would say they still
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: want to see how he's going to do over the
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: next couple of months before they all line up behind him.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: So he's like, it's likely to be Flavio Bolsnaro. Keep
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: in mind that his father, the former president has had
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: a lot of health issues recently, and you know, if
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: he ends up really not being able to be a strong,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: live political force, things could change very quickly.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: How's Lula's health. He's been there a long.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: Time, seems to be okay. I mean he's what in
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: his eighties now. He doesn't even keep a smartphone.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: I mean he's like, you know, the way he does
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: his work and the way he's briefed is so twentieth century.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: It's kind of shocking that he's running the largest economy
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: in South America, but he's decided he wants to run again.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: I think it's criminal negligence for him to be running
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: for another full term basically.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: Because of his age.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and all of that.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, but very much a Biden situation.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Biden situation. I mean all across subs are in Africa.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: I mean a lot of places where people should know this.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: Is a hugeh you all over Africa, that's for sure.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: Let's move to Claudia.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: Shinbaum because one of the comments that didn't get a
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: lot of traction over the last couple of weeks was
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: when Trump just managed, matter of factly said well, she
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't control her own country. I'm gonna have to take
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: care of the cartels, and you're and Shinebaum to her.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: She never overreacts to Trump publicly. She always she is
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: you know, she's in that sense, she's figured out how
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: to manage the personal relationship with them, probably better than
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: any world leader. But I'm curious if you disagree.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, you'd argue that h J and Ping
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: has done the best job managing the Trump relationship, has
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: given back and turns out that's effective, right, But but Claudia,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: pound for pound, cloudy done the best job. Yeah, I
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: think that's probably right. I mean, her throw weight is
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: a little smaller in terms of Mexico's a asymmetrical disadvantages.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: But I will say that, like three.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 5: Months ago, you know, the the in the scuttle but
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 5: inside the White House was, yeah, we thought we might
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 5: have to engage in strikes, but they're cooperating so effectively
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 5: that we probably don't.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: Need to now. And that was even Stephen Miller's perspective, Right.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: It's my assign but I understand that in country. I've
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: got a few people I've talked to that say that
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: she seems pretty intent and that she's more serious about
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: it than Amblo was.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: Yes, yes, she is, and she is both in terms
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: of the importance of her security, bona fidees for her
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: own popular support in terms of what she did when
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: she was mayor of Mexico City and.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: The corruption around the Attorney General.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: The Minister of Justice, excuse me and others, which she's
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: who she finally forced out the chief prosecutor. And also
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: because she understands that she's very vulnerable to the Americans
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: if she doesn't shut down the meth labs, if she doesn't,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: you know, sort of capture a whole bunch of fentanyl, and.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: That they have done more, but but is more enough.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: They are very worried about it, and it certainly seems
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: to me that Trump, that Marco Rubio in particular over
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: the past week since the Venezuela operation have soured on Mexico,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: is getting this done. Maybe this is over confidence because
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: of Venezuela and the focus on the Donroe doctrine. Maybe
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: it's because there isn't as much cooperation as they really want.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's because they're they're worried about the economy and
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: the rest in the US. They want to show some
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: more wins but definitely that noise has increased.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: Doesn't she have a I mean, tourism is so important
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: to the Mexican economy, and the perception in this country
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: is that Mexico is not as not safe. Doesn't she
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: wants Americans to believe things are safe?
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: There Isn't that the perception?
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, when you think about it depends on toy sure,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: But I mean, do we really think that Cancun is
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: a problem?
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: I mean no, And I've always been told that the
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: reason why Cabo and Cancun aren't a problem is because
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: the cartels own the hotels in those areas and that's
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: the money. That's how they launder the money, and they
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: know they don't want to kill the golden goose, so
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: I have that's how That's how I've had folks reassure
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: me about Cabo. Put it that way, Okay, But.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: Tuloom, I mean, you know my Coba, even Mexico City,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Guadalajara, I mean, Wahaka. I mean
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: the friends of mine, from all walks of life, from
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: working class to super rich, have not been, you know,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: sort of cutting their Mexico trips because they're concerned about
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 3: getting you know, sort of hauled off by the drug
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 3: lords or caught in a firefight. I think it's much
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: more of a concern for the companies that are operating
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: in those areas, for whom you know, a shakedown is real. Well,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: it's also a huge concern for the mayors and in
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 3: the localities that are running who are getting gunned down.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: But it's a huge number of political assassinations across.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: Especially northern in the northern part of the country. Definitely, yeah,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: still yeah, I still wouldn't recommend a road trip in
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: Mexico now.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: But I look, I think the big issue is that
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: if the United States decides to go in unilaterally with
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: drones or with the federal allys and engages in strikes
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: that the Mexican government is not cooperating with overtly, I
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: think that is a redline for this government and for
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: the US Mexico relationship.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: That would be a disaster. Okay, what does that look like.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: I think that.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: Trade relations would would take a severe hit. I think
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: that she would. I think she'd be in very serious
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: trouble unless she immediately hit the Americans back and said
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: this won't be tolerated with real consequences. It would cause
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: a break. You said that she's handled manage Trump better
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: than anybody else pound for pound, We would stop saying
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: that immediately.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: Cuba.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: How can this regime survive without the help of Venezuela?
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: How important was Maduro? Is Maduro? Is that regime to Cuba?
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: So it appears that the United States, and I've only
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: heard this in the last few hours, so I'd like
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: to dig into it, is not going to pressure the
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: Mexicans to stop providing oil to Cuba.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 3: Marco Rubio recognizes that he wants the regime gone, but
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: he also knows that they are not exporting the kind
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: of instability across the region that Venezuela has.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: So it doesn't.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 3: Appear that there is urgency. And there also isn't a
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: plan that's been put together. Yes, and the plan for Venezuela,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: which was, you know, militarily a very significant plan from
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: an intelligence perspective too, that took about six months. So
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 3: it doesn't feel unless the Cuban economy collapses, driving massive
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: you know, sort of unrest on the ground, this doesn't
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 3: feel like something that we're going to be seeing headlines
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: on next week.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: I know, over the last twenty years, the Spanish government
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: in particular had been very helpful to Cuba. Obviously the Venezuelans.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, it does seem as if that who invests
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: in Cuba these days, who has been helping them the most.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean Venezuela has been significant and Mexico
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: has been significant. Those are the two largest countries in
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: the region that have been propping them up. And of course,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: with Venezuela essentially having been blockaded and now with the
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: oil being taken over by the United States, one assumes
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: that that has been cut off, and it would be
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 3: cut off from Mexico if the Americans demanded it. So
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: I think it's a question of you know, thewen the
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: when as opposed to the weather. I can't see Trump
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: in office for four years with Rubio as Secretary of
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: State having taken out Maduro, allowing the Cuban regime to
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: persist that.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: That does not seem likely to me.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: And I had a friend of mine just tell me
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: that the that the constituency that he is becoming namored
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: with the most are the living bay of pigs, guys
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: that have become a staple at mar A Lago. Now
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: part of that I've always said I think part of
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: you know, Trump is Trump has been inaugurated as a
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: real South Floridian at mar A Lago over the last
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: seven years. And I don't think people understand the extent
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: of Marco Rubio's education of Donald Trump in the world
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: of the exile politics, and that now he is, you know,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: he's on a first Dame basis with all those surviving
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: Bay of Pigs guys. And I'm with you one hundred
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: thousand percent. He he sees that as a legacy opportunity
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: in Cuba looks weak enough to make it not that hard,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: although these things always are harder than they look.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: I mean, this does not mean to me that Rubio
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: is the slam dunk for twenty twenty eight or anything.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: But I just I can't see once you've embraced the
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: Donro doctrine as your priority region, and it's not just
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: Trump the National Security Strategy Document in December, you know,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: sort of anticipated all of this before the Venezuela operations.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: I don't see how you leave Cuba alone.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: So let me throw a question that I got the
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: other day and I didn't have a great answer for it,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: which is Haiti, you know, for all of the tumult
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: in our hemisphere. That's one place that Trump doesn't want
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: anything to do with.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: The person asked the question, if there were more resources
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: that were important to us on the island of Hispaniola,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: would we be more engaged.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: With what's happening on the Haitian side of the mountain?
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: You know, look in fairness to Trump, you know, a
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: lot of reds haven't been able to figure out the
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: Haitian problem.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're not. I mean, it's it's massive gang violence,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: it's massive human predation.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: Are we still outsourcing this to the Kenyans and hoping
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: you can provide.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're they're the peacekeepers on the ground. There's
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: been some American money, some Canadian money and some policing,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: but support and training. But the United States, this being
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: right in America's backyard and Biden administration has done nothing
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: on it.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: Trump administration has done nothing on it.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, of course that the top concern is making
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: sure that Haitians can't make it to the US and
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: sending them back when they do. But aside from that,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: there's a big not our problem. And you would you
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: one would think this would be more important in the
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: context of the Donroe doctrine.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, if you believe it that
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: right now, as as a South Floridian, I can tell
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: you the Haitians don't have the political power that the
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: Cubans do, not even close.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: And you know they don't have the business community. They're
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: not in they're not the mara Alago members.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: And if they did, if they could get into mar
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: A Lago, perhaps people there are supposed to be elections
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: in Haiti.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: The likelihood that happens this year seems close to zero.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Greenland, I'm staying geographic here. Stay in
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: geographic stay in the hemisphere or the edge of the
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: way is Greenland Western hemisphere or not?
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: No, no, but it is now. It is now. That
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: is the point.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: What what's the you've got to people will pay you.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: And I say this not in some sort of meaning
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: like you're a you're a consulting company and you know
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: you're you're there to help people, Like what's the most
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: likely scenario here? So what's the most likely scenario of
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: Greenland's relationship to the United States? January twentieth, twenty twenty nine,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: So that the.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: Likelihood of an actual US military invasion to take Greenland
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: strikes me as staggeringly low. That would that would end NATO.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: It would be.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 3: Incredibly NATO, right, and it was incredibly unpopular in the
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: United States. It would also be incredibly unpopular in Greenland, frankly,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: and you know, why would you want to deal with that?
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: But but you know, that's like saying, what's the likelihood
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: of the Russians sending tanks into the Baltics. That's not
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: the way they get what they want, right, They use
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: all sorts of asymmetric warfare, and the Americans would have
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 3: a lot more carrots to use, because look, what they
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 3: want is to come up with a plan that Trump
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: will approve that has you know, an information campaign and
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: all sorts of money being thrown at them and coercion
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: that would get the Greenlanders to want to have a
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: referendum to leave Denmark and join the United States. Now,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: what is the likelihood that such a thing could be successful?
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: We have no idea.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: If it was you know, held today, it would you know,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 3: get defeated very very soundly.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: But we have only fifty seven thousand constituents to buy off.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: I mean that many, right, you might buy him off
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: and it sounds like Trump thinks there's a chance to
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: buy him off.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: Sure, sure he does.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: And he also loves the idea of painting that island,
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: you know, Trump Landia. I mean, he's his entire life
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: is about putting his name on stuff, and whether it
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: was buildings in the on the Upper West Side that
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: he doesn't own, or whether it's the Kennedy Center or
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: whether it's Greenland. Now, now, you know, if you talk
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 3: to the people in the national security space in the
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: Trump administration, most of them will say, you can get
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: a lot of what you need and there are real
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: security concerns by negotiating with Denmark and Greenland, but not everything.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: And so there is there is a little bit of
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: a real argument here, and of course it's being developed
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: because Trump is telling them to So for example, sure
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: you know what is that.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: I was just going to say, what's the real because
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: this is not He's not the first president that is
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: one of this. There's I think we all see the
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: strategic need potentially and obviously with thanks to climate change,
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: the Arctics is going to be a battleground for resources
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: and all sorts of things. So I you know, the
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: strategic need is there, But but what is it that
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: we couldn't get from a treaty?
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: So, I mean a few things.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 3: One the argument would be that, in particular, if it
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 3: comes to stationing offensive weapons, as the Russians and even
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 3: the Chinese become more assertive, aggressive and present in the area,
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: that's something that the Greenlanders under Danish rule.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: And with their own autonomy, would would not want that.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: That'd also be slower processes bureaucratically of getting agreements to
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: allow you even to have defensive and intelligence.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: You don't have posts there now, Yeah, that is one
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: outpost there with like one hundred and fifty people there.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 3: In the Cold War, of course there's more like fifteen thousands,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: So I mean, it would be very easy to ramp
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: it up. But there are real, albeit small and I
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: think manageable, but still issues. And there's another issue which
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: is kind of more existential, and it's a cute argument
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: to use, but I get it, which is that, well,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: you know, how much would the Russians or Chinese believe
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: the Americans would defend the territory of an ally as
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: opposed to territory that belongs to themselves, And especially given
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: that Trump is undermining the belief in US LED collectives curity, Like,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: you've got the Baltics that aren't convinced that America would
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: necessarily go to bad for them if need be. So
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: if Greenland is still a part of Denmark, well yeah
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: it's NATO, but would America really defend it. Where if
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 3: it's America, you know they'll defend it as America. It's
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 3: a weird argument because, of course, again Trump is undermining
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: it himself. But I do kind of understand the existential
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 3: logic having said all of those things, Chuck, I don't
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 3: want to give the audience the wrong idea. Overwhelmingly, this
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 3: is Trump deciding I have to have my name on
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: this thing.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: This is a legacy issue for me.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: Is the most consequential American president in history. It's not
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: like he cared about it on his first term, and
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: those issues were all present during his first term.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: Right is there a price that the Danes would say, well,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: we can't say no to that.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 3: This is not only panicking the Danes and the Nordics,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: but it's making them incredibly angry, like with Canada and
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: unlike with Latin America.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: So it's a boomerang. It's an anti Americanism, is.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: Causing permanent damage to the US relationship with Europe, permanent damage.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: The Americans throwing the Ukrainians under the bus on many instances,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: and the Europeans coming back and also paying for it themselves.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: The Americans promoting eurosceptic parties, including in Germany the AfD,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: which many Germans consider to be a neo Nazi party,
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: the Greenland issue. There are so many instances where the
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 3: Europeans today consider the Americans fundamentally unreliable. And I think
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 3: this is going to cause permanent damage.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: To the relationship it already had. I mean, yeah, there's
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: no coming. I mean and that, and I'm gonna save
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: this to the end. It's sort of like it doesn't
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: sound like a change in administrations just flips a switch.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: This time. No, not this time, not this time.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: All right, let's move to Iran. You know, I know
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: that a regime falls. It's like the definition of bankruptcy.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: First it's slowly, then it's quickly, right like we knew
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: Syria would fall. We knew a Sod would fall, we
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: just don't know when. And all of a sudden, one day,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, a Sod's gone. Right, he's in Russia,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: it's over, and I have a feeling it's like this.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: I was in Abu Dabi about a month ago. It's
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: a huge Iranian diaspora there, and the optimism that the
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: regime is going to fall was through the roof then,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: and this was pre protests. Do you think this regime
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: lasts the calendar year?
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: I would love to say that it does it. I'd
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 3: love to see the back of this regime so incredibly
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: repressive of its own people and exporting so much instability
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: with bad actors around the region Hamas has Belah, others.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: But it feels to me like they still have very
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 3: significant capacity to repress, and I haven't yet seen cracks
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 3: inside the regime itself. The Supreme Leader is incredibly old.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: He's mid eighties. I think he's like eighty six now.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: He's he's quite he's quite frail, he's ailing, he's had
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 3: it seems like he's had cancer that he's dealing with.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: But he's hand.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: Selected all of the top security officials and they don't
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: seem to be in any way backing away from him.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: We've seen no climb down despite American pressure for the IRGC,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the besiege. The paramilitary
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 3: group under them that does the head knocking and the shooting.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: We've seen no willingness of them to say no to orders.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: Or back away. The repression has been very extensive.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 3: And that's that's included technical repression in terms of you know,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: shutting down electricity, shutting down the internet, and the rest
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 3: and enforcement across the country despite very different regional you
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 3: know makeups, ethnic makeup, and the rest in different parts
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: of irun.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: So and the United States.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: As much as Trump has said you know you better,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: you better behavior, else we're going to hit you, so far,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 3: the plans for what the US might do seem to
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 3: be pretty pinpoint and symbolical. I mean, I expect at
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 3: some point actually some military strikes.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: For the US. What would that look like and what
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: could be effective?
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 3: Oh well, what it would look like and what could
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 3: be effective or two different things, so one what it
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 3: would look like. I mean, right now, it looks like
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 3: it's going to be the US going after the police,
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: the US going after the paramilitary forces directly, not taking
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 3: out the supreme leader. I'd like to see them be
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 3: a little more creative than that. You know, for example,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 3: you have all of these judges that are serving the
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: regime and are handing down sentences without any evidence, no
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: rule of law, innocent people that are being sentenced to
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 3: horrible jails, time or death, and those judges have never
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: been targeted, and frankly they should be. They are instruments
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: of terror in the Iranian regime. You know, the Israelis
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 3: have targeted nuclear scientists. No one's after gone after the
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: people that are actually sending civilians to their death. That
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 3: strikes me as you know, you go after them, you
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 3: go after some of these softer points that allow a
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 3: dictatorship of theocracy to unleash terror within the country.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: Maybe you start to unravel it a little bit.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: But again, if if you were asking me to make
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: a bet, are they gone?
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: Are they gone in five years? Yeah? They gone in
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: three years? Probably? Are they gone in like six months,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: that's a harder call for me.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: Right now, it doesn't it doesn't feel imminent, especially because
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 3: on the ground, I mean, there's a lot of support
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 3: inside Iran for Razapalabi, who's the one that's saying I
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 3: want you all out there demonstrating, But there's there's no
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 3: real organization of an opposition movement inside or on itself.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: Somebody indicated to me that they thought the president was
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: quietly they had Somebody said it sort of so that
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: the president sort of is prepared to become the Gorbacheff
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: of Iran, and I thought, I'll believe it when I
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: say it.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: I mean he's weak.
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: He is more of a centrist in the Iranian context
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: than was expected when those presidential elections occurred. But I
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 3: mean he is seen as a failed figure. The economy
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 3: has utterly collapsed under his rule.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: He engaged in a whole pultable water in Tehran right now.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they've got a massive water crisis in the capitol,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 3: and he was supporting behind the scenes talks with the Americans,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 3: and that's happening again through Oman and their good offices.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: But the Supreme Leader has stopped anything from happening. So
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: I don't know that the president possession would be useful
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: in really driving a different outcome.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: Are we stretched a little thin right now with Venezuela,
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: with what we're doing in Syria? With what to do
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: more in Iran? Would are we prepared if we wanted
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: to do something, could we do it immediately? Or do
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: we actually have a little bit because of this Venezuela exercise.
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 3: The B two's are all been you know, they're all
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 3: repositioned Diego Garcia. There's massive amount of firepower and readiness
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 3: to engage in those strikes. If that's what you do,
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 3: you could also send them from like Montana if you
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 3: really needed to, Right we did, Americans have that capacity. Again,
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 3: if you're not talking about boots on the ground, an
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 3: actual regime change with an ability to execute on it.
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: The limitations of the US military has suddenly become much
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: much less.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to like get ahead of ourselves.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: But what would this mean for a rock.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 3: It would mean that a significant constraint on their government
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 3: and the lever that has prevented them from working more
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 3: effectively with the big powers.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: In the region would be gone.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: And I think that that would be a useful thing
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 3: for a Rocky economic I.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: Mean, you know, you paid a picture. It's like God,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: you know, if a run, if this regime went away,
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: maybe Syria could thrive, Maybe Lebanon could thrive, Maybe Iraq
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: could thrive. Right like feels like it's stated. I mean,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: are we're being too optimistic about what would happen after
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: the fall of this regime.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 3: Well, we've seen that Saudi Arabia, you know, which we've
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: thought of as a twenty years ago, even ten years ago,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 3: as an enormously conservative and pretty repressive monarchy, and today
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 3: I mean truly revolutionary in the positive sense, for young people,
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: for women participating in the economy, for tourism becoming a
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: real part of GDP tourism in Saudi Arabia, Like no
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 3: one was talking about that ten years ago, and now
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 3: it's increasingly becoming a world class Destination's.
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: Still probably go to Abu Dhabi or Dubai before yadd
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: but still, you know, go for it.
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 3: But Alula is now becoming a world class must do destination,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: which is in Saudi Arabia, And if you haven't heard
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 3: of it yet, you will within another year or two.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: So definitely they're putting real effort into that. And yeah,
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 3: it's going to be for tourists in the region first,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: but then it's going to be from all over the world.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 3: So you know, I think that don't underestimate what energy,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: wealth and some technocrats can accomplish given level of control,
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 3: and of course what you have in Saudi Arabia and
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: the Emirates in particular I mean cut its tiny, but
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 3: you have, you know, very strong centralized control, right and
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 3: all you need is the ability to support a reform process,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: which they didn't have before.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: The Emiordes went first, and now the Saudis are fast following.
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: Maybe that yahoo. You know, it's interesting. I remember there's a.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: Poll right before the ceasefire which said as soon as
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: there's a ceasefire, sixty percent of Israelis wanted them out.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: I don't see a path him to be out anytime soon,
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: but what's your sense.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: I think that it's going to be a very close
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: run election.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: Israel is a fragmented multi party system where coalition building
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 3: is extremely hard and also very opaque until after you
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 3: have the votes in.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: We could easily he's.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: An incredibly talented tactician in election math and management. He's
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: also very charismatic and being able to convince people that
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 3: he can give them the world and that others along that. So,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's really hard to count him out. But
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 3: he could absolutely not be a part of the next
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 3: government in Israel. I think that that is that is
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 3: plausible as.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: We look at plausible this time than there has been
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: in quite some time.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: Probably And and you know, The fact is that normalization
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 3: with Saudi Arabia once BB is gone, is absolutely on
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 3: the table. Then you can move ahead with Phase two,
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 3: which be be opposes, but which you know you could
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 3: actually move on.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: The Israelis don't support a Palestinian state anymore, there is
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 3: no there's no support for that in the population as
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 3: a whole.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: But there is support for, i.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: Think among the majority of the population, for the peace
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 3: plan that actually passed the Security Council, the American peace
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: plan that passed the Security count This is probably the
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 3: most improbable foreign policy win by the United States in
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 3: the first year of Trump, because the US went from
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 3: being completely isolated by pretty much everyone for supporting a
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 3: war that was considered ethnic cleansing by the vast majority
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: of the world's governments and populations, with massive humanitarian damage
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: and tens of thousands of Palestinians killed kids, right, all
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: huge humanitarian outrage. And then suddenly Trump got all the
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 3: countries in the region together and during the United Nations
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 3: and said We're going to make a ceasefire happen, and
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 3: everyone passes it in the Security Council except the Russians
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 3: and Chinese, who abstain.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: You know, it's fascinating about Trump with this.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: I've said this.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: You know, he's the last person you'd want to negotiate
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: with Europe, but he might be the only person you
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: want negotiating in the Middle East. In a weird way,
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: his style, his transactional nature. Look, I don't think he
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: cares about BB, and BB's going to find this out.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: And but in a weird way, he speaks the same
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: language and and he's it works there. It doesn't work
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: in a lot of other parts of the world.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 3: But he's so popular there. Weirdly went to the Kanesset
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 3: and spoke there. I mean, the ovations that he was
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 3: getting popular than from the not It's not even close.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, Bebe's unpopular, and rightfully so.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: But Trump is wildly popular, very popular across because he's
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: delivered for them.
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 3: He's the one that moved the American embassy to jerusale
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 3: him after so many presidents Democrat Republican promised and then
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 3: didn't deliver. He's the one that recognized the goal on
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 3: Heights as part of Israel, which another president, other presidents
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 3: wouldn't do.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: So he has delivered for the israelis.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: No, which is why he alone might be the person,
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: which may in its own way, why the world.
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: Sort OF's like, Okay, you can get this done, go
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: do it right. Yeah.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, clearly he was more more capable of pressuring
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 3: Israel when he felt like it, and he didn't.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: Is this Nixon to China? Will this be like that
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: kind of foreign policy victory in his legacy?
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 3: Not? I think not if if BB wins, if he's
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: a he's part of the coalition, because I think that again,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 3: what Trump really wants is the Saudi normalization, and I
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 3: guess Phoebe's gone. You can't do that until you end
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: the Israeli occupation of guys that you create some reconstruction.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 3: I don't think it has to be a state, but
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: there has to be some kind of self governance with
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 3: security provided by outsiders but not Israel, and that just
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 3: I don't think that can happen as long as BIB
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 3: is there. And let's also keep in mind that the
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 3: settlements in the West Bank are expanding and BB's far
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 3: right allies are pushing that and not Yahoo is supporting it.
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: Yep. I don't know how to unwind that.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 3: No that I think that that those are facts on
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 3: the ground and ye, I.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: Don't know how unwind it is.
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: It's a I've been in plenty of conversations with a
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: certain monarch who touches that West Bank. I mean some things,
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: the toothpastes out of the tube.
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, I mean how many millions of Palestinians are
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 3: living in Jordan now? And the right of return, Yeah,
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 3: that is never happening. Remember, there was a deal that
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 3: Jared Broker that got you before the Abraham Accords that
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 3: I mean was a lot less territory for the Palestinians
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 3: than they would have had with the previous Camp David Accords,
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 3: and yet you know, couldn't get done, non starter for
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 3: the Palestinians, and still reflected much more than they have now.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 3: And that's the problems, the power asymmetries between the Palestinians
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 3: and the Israelis, and between the entire access of resistance
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: in the Israelis, including Iran and the Israelis. The Israelis
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 3: have the military capabilities and the wherewithal, No, they're.
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: Going to be able to dictate the terms of the surrender.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: It's funny, Anton Yahoo just came out today.
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw that and said he
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: really wants to end the Israeli reliance on all of
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: the American foreign aid in the next ten years.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: He doesn't want any more defense support.
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 3: He wants the belief and the support of the American
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 3: people the American government, but he doesn't want the money.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, I will believe that when it happens.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: But it's interesting because he understands that the relying on
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 3: the American taxpayers has been such an incredible populous push
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 3: in the US, and the US has ended that for
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 3: you know, almost.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: Everybody else around the phebe if bb well, nobody's done
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: more damage days or his reputation in the United States
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: than bb netya left and right for we can say
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: some of it.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: He is on him for sure. Whatever it is, he
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: has not helped.
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: The situation, particularly in.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: His very divisive figure.
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, particularly and I think how he handled Obama. Let's
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: move to Ukraine. Yeah, it feels as if let me
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: ask you, this is Trump going to be fine if
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: the Europeans take the lead in helping the Ukrainians. And
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: does he just sort of has he given up on Putin?
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: Because I get the sense he's thinking about giving up
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: on Putin?
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, but you probably would have had that
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 3: sense occasionally on several on several occasions over the last
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 3: six months.
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: Right, he's he's kind of moved in that direction of
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: the anti backs off.
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 3: He does, Yeahorady to hit the Ukrainians again because they're
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 3: we can see if you can get.
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: More out of them. He wants to end the war.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: He's failed to end the war.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 3: It's mostly because the Russians are giving him nothing. He's
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 3: put a little bit of pressure on Russia, but far
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 3: more pressure on the Ukrainians. But the interesting thing is
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 3: that the Europeans are now spending all the money. So
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 3: for Trump to cut off Ukraine, well, that would have
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 3: to tell the American military industrial complex you are no
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 3: longer allowed to sell weapons to the Europeans.
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 1: Well wait a minute, but intelligent intelligence sharing still happening, right, yeah, yeah,
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: But I mean if that were cut off, that would
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: be a big deal.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: Not as small it would.
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 3: It would absolutely it is less of a complete game
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 3: changer than having the ammunition and having the missiles and
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 3: all the rest. But the reality is that the United
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 3: States is going to continue to provide those weapons. They're
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 3: going to continue to allow the Europeans to buy them
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 3: and transfer them to Ukraine, and that allows the Ukrainians
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 3: to continue to fight, and that's a pretty big deal.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 3: So the Americans are going to continue to be complicit,
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 3: fully complicit in Ukraine's defense, and as long as that
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 3: is true, you can't really have a US Russian deal.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: So Trump has kind of been cut off by the Europeans.
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 3: The Europeans have bought themselves a seat at the table.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 3: They've bought themselves a veto on Trump's ability to drive
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 3: full capitulation of the Ukrainians, and that forces Trump to
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 3: squeeze the Russians a little bit more if he wants
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 3: to try to get a ceasefire, like he has on
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 3: telling the Indians to stop buying Russian oil or else
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 3: there won't be a US India trade deal. And mukesh
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 3: Ambani in reliance just stopped buying Russian crude in the
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 3: last few weeks, for example. So it's me it's causing
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 3: some some pain to the Russians.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: What's some you know, we've we've there's been a lot
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: of speculation that the longer this war goes, that eventually
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: it would create internal descent in Russia. In Russia, you know,
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: you hear anecdotal. We'll see a report here or there.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: One would assume that now more people know somebody killed
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 1: in this war than they did yesterday and the day before,
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Yeah, what's your sense in your sources of
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: of sort of of of the the level of discouragement
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: in the Russian populace over this war, not.
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: Seeing anything meaningful.
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, we've seen a couple of saw one former
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 3: general that came out publicly and talked about what a
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 3: kind of disaster. This was the sort of thing that
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 3: you hear some people say internally but never publicly.
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: That was a little surprising some.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 3: Of the bloggers who are quite patriotic talking about the
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 3: fact that the Russian military is not performing as well
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 3: as it should for examples a little that put.
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's sometimes more criticism from his right. You haven't
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: been strong enough, you haven't been aggressive enough.
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, but within the population not so much. Now
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 3: the economy, I think less about the Russians that are
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 3: getting killed, although there are a lot of them. They're
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: not from Moscow, they're not from Petersburg. They're from you know,
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 3: sort of areas that are going to cause much less trouble,
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 3: and they're prisoners.
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: That was obviously done on purpose, right, he doesn't want
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: people at Moscow or Saint Petersburg to get first hand
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: glimpses of But I.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 3: Do think the Russian economy is starting to take more
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 3: of a hit as a consequence of low oil prices
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 3: and the squeeze.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: From all of these sanctions, especially the energy sanctions. So
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: it does. I do think it matters.
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 3: But I also think that ultimately the Ukrainians are having
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 3: a harder time of it in terms of maintaining this
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 3: level of fighting, and I think that the Europeans are
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 3: having a harder time if we look over the next
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 3: two three years. The fact that everything you've asked me
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 3: about Greenland, everything we've talked about America squeezing the Europeans
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 3: as well.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: If you're Putin, if.
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: I'm advising Putin, I'm telling him double down on pressure
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 3: in Europe because you because maybe your big crag, Yeah
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 3: you might be able to crack.
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: Well, that's an interesting is there who.
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 3: Of our By the way, I'm sorry, but I've got
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 3: I'm going to have to go in like four minutes.
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: Just okay, all right, let me get you out of here.
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: On two questions.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: Question one, is this who's the most secure leader in
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: Europe right now? In the sort of the western part
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: of your you know, the sort of the G seven.
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: Allies the most secure.
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, the Italian Maloney is probably the most popular
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 3: among the major economies right now.
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: And France seems like it's a mession. Governments used to
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 2: fall apart every few months, right now.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: That's that the French National Assembly says, hey, we hold
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: our champaigne.
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 2: We'll do this now. Yeah, I mean, the.
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 3: Macron's not going anywhere because the general elections are in
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty seven.
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: Everyone's going to wait for that.
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 3: But they've been you know, governments that they've had, like
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 3: multiple prime ministers that mess. Yeah, yeah, I mean Germany
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 3: is I guess you'd say Germany is more stable because
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 3: you know, grand coalition multi party system understand they benefit
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 3: from the EU, and yet the parties in that system
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 3: disagree on so much that it's become very dysfunctional. And
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 3: as the German economy continues to underperform, the AfD on
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 3: the right and dur Linka on the left continue to
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 3: do quite well. This year, They're gonna be five state
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 3: elections in Germany. I expect the far right is going
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 3: to do very well. So I mean, there's no great
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 3: answer for that question, is what I'm telling.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: You, all right, And one year from now is going
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: to be twenty twenty seven.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 3: And the Greece is probably the country that's doing the
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 3: best because they've had post Grexit, They've had great, great
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 3: strong government.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: It's fascinating to see the southern European countries have an
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: economic boom after having such a disaster and have to
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: be built out by the Germans.
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, back in that long ago, very quickly.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: Next year is supposed to be the year that China
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: takes Taiwan. Where are we at? What is your expectation
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: and do you expect Donald Trump to stand in the way.
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 3: I think that the Chinese and the Americans have both
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 3: understand that a level of stabilization of that relationship is
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 3: good for them after the big fights that they had
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 3: on tariffs and export controls and licensing last year. And
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 3: I think that means that Chinese understand that an invasion
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 3: of Taiwan would be really, really bad if Americans screwing
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 3: up in so many areas long term, don't get in
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 3: their way, and you know, make hay.
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: In other places.
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 3: So I could see the Chinese testing Taiwan on certain
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 3: issues like bigger exercises and maybe a coastguard boarding a ship,
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 3: you know sort of thing, maybe some political and economic pressure,
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 3: but not that that's very different from an invasion. Nothing
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 3: that would be an action forcing event or an embarrassment
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 3: for the US administration.
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: But if we're embracing sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: how is that?
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: How does Beijing not see that as a right?
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, where on the one hand, On the one hand,
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 3: the Western Hemisphere is not the limit of American ambitions
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 3: in the world.
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: It is a prioritization.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 3: On the other hand, American military dominance in the Western
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 3: Hemisphere does not relate easily with Chinese commercial dominance with
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 3: most of the countries outside of the US and Canada
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 3: and Mexico, and that's not going to change anytime soon.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 3: So I think the sphere of influence argument is overstated.
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: Ian bremer Man, I always appreciate this steward to force.
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 2: Thank you a lot of fun to do. Let me do.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: I love traveling the world with you, and who knows,
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: someday we man actually do it in person.
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 2: Good luck in Davos, it'd be a lot of my
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: fun O jeez.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: The fact that Trump goes to Davos, is that clearly
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: that an American president goes Oh well, I.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 3: Mean the sense that the Americans are going to be
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 3: meeting with so many different leaders around the world.
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 2: The communication is good, but if.
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 3: You watch how the heads of state and how the
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 3: CEOs comport themselves publicly with him, it is very different
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 3: from the way they talk privately, and that is a
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 3: big part of the problem.
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: Oh well, that's why we have you and your tremendous
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: newsletter that is available for free. Even it's tremendous G
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: zero and boy you have said we live in a
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: G zero world.
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well we're there now. Congrats, we are there now,
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: Thanks Chuck. I hope you enjoyed that.
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: And while uh, while we've been taping, you know, and
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: as just to be full disclosure, here reports of airspace
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: being cleared on the border of Iraq and Iran. Who
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: knows what kind of head fakes are going on with Trump,
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: but it whether this is simply a threat to see
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: if it really does work with the Iranian regime. Look,
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: I think the bottom line is is one thing you
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: need to remember with these with these dictatorships, it takes
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: forever for them to fall, and then all of a
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: sudden it happens in a blink of an eye. I
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: go back to the series example, right, we knew Asad
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: was going to fall, it ended up happening a few
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: years later than anybody thought it would. And then when
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: it happened, he was gone, and it happened super quickly,
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: And all of a sudden, somebody who we once deemed
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: a terrorist is having an Oval Office sit down with
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: the President of United States.
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: Right, So.
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: You know, it's is one of those things where I
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: don't know if the fall of the Islamic regime there
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: is going to be happened in the next few weeks,
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: but it's certainly clear they're closer to the end than
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: the beginning. All right, let's do a few questions here.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 2: Ask Chuck.
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: This one comes from JR. He goes Daily listener here.
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: Thanks for taking questions. Appreciate that my questions about Mississippi.
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: It seems like every chance you get, you include Mississippi
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: as a state dem should focus on, or a state
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: you'd like to see Dems out put on the map.
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: I know s P.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: Presley and Hunt were legit Democratic candidate. But I'm curious
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: where your bullishness comes from. What signs of hope have
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: you seen that gives you confidence at a state like
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: Mississippi could legitimately be competitive in the.
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: Next few years.
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: Look, I'll say, and I don't. You might have caught
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: I can't. I will confess. One of the things I've
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: learned in this independent media space is you think you've
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: said something in one place and you think I'm going
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: to repeat myself, but you never know where people hear this.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: So I may have repeated this in this space, but
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: maybe not. With Mississippi. It's simply numbers and the number
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: of inactive potential voters African American voters in Mississippi, unregistered
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: African American voters or inactive African American voters meaning registered
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: but you don't. And it goes to and I think
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 1: I was making this point the other day that the
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: Democratic parties slow retreat from rural America wasn't just from
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: white rural America.
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: Democrats have struggled in black rural America and in Hispanic America.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: We saw it in South Texas, and the reason why
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: Democrats keep coming up short just about in every competitive
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: election in North Carolina, but one in two thousand and eight,
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: when when Obama carried the state and brought a Senate
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: seat with him, was under performance in majority black rural counties.
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 2: In the South.
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of majority rural African American counties that
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: feel as if they're ignored, that feel as if their
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: issues essentially there. You know, the issues of urban African
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: Americans are different than the issues from rural African Americans.
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: So it's been however you want to look at it,
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: it's been a lack of focus. But I think, you know,
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: Mississippi and to a lesser extent, South Carolina, there is
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: an under activated population of African Americans who, in my
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: talks with organizers in those states over time, they just
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: simply say it's more out of do they really care,
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: it's they feel they have felt passed over for a
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: long time. They have felt ignored. So I'm not saying
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: Democrats don't have work that they need to do, but
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 1: the opportunity is sitting there. Part of it is showing up,
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 1: and then once you show up, you might have a
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 1: shot at registering voters. But when you look at the
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: simple demographics of Mississippi Democrats should be much more competitive
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 1: than they are, and it all goes to essentially a
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: big population of underactivated and unregistered African American voters. All right,
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: Joanna Hey Chuck, as a lifelong Minnesota and former journalist,
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 1: I was troubled by your recent comment suggesting ISIS conduct
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: stems primarily from poor training. What we're witnessing here feels
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: far more deliberate, violent and discriminate enforcement actions carried out
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: without due process, including against you as citizens. This isn't
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: a training failure. It reflects a deeper history of government
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: sanctioned violence. I hope you'll reconsider ow this issue is framed.
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: Given the weight of your voice carries. Thank you for
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: what you do, respectfully, Joanna, Well, this is great, and
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: I hope she took a listen to that political memo
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 1: I was quoting earlier in this podcast, and I actually
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: called I wanted folks to look. I guess I do
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: believe this is a and if you go into the
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 1: details of the lack of training these new ice officers
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 1: are getting or not getting, essentially that they don't understand
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: what the law is or isn't. They've gone down from
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: six months down to six weeks of training, the type
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: of recruitment videos they've done. So the point is is
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: that this is I think what were the acts on
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: the ground reflect the recruitment strategy and the training that
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: they've done.
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 2: So that's why it's it's it's not that I am.
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: Defending the existence of ICE, but the we're going to
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: have an immigration, Customs and Enforcement agency. If you don't,
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: you don't have borders, you don't have sovereignty, you don't
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 1: have a country. The issue is bad training, bad policy,
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: bad leadership. And if that's why, I think that ultimately
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: that's what this is about. And that's and I think
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 1: that that is sort of when you take a step
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: back and now that said, you know, living in the
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: community is a different I get it, it's a different experience.
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: It's very personalized, and I understand it. I understand the anger.
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: I understand that. But ultimately, in order to get a
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: policy change, I think that that I think you got
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: to frame it at this because I guess I do
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: believe this, that this is this is Look, I think
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: it's an intentional targeting of Minnesota. This is not there
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: is not this has been selective enforcement of our immigration
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: laws based on political targeting by the White House. So look,
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to legitimize any of this. Well, what
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: I am saying is that I, you know, be careful
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: blaming the agency. It's the leadership above it. It's how
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: it's being run, It's how it's being hired, how folks
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: are being hired, and how they're being trained. So, by
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: the way, Joanne, I'd love to hear your reaction to
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: the memo that I quoted from from the folks at
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: Searchlight in my earlier comments as well. Appreciate you listening
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 1: and appreciate the thoughtful the thoughtful critique. I'm all for it.
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: Mojack ninety nine checks in and he says, hey, I'm
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: increasingly concerned about the potential polarization of law enforcement and
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: the military potential. I think I might drop the word potential, Mojack,
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 1: But anyway, but I digress. If Democrats were to win
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: both chambers, how realistic do you think it is that
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: Trump might attempt to declare martial law cigning election fraud
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 1: or another pretext, And how might Republicans respond given the
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 1: historical president of martial law at the state level. Could
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: such actions be selectively targeted at Democratic led states. I'd
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 1: love to hear your take on the likelihood of this
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 1: and what guardrails exists. So, you know, one of the
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: things that I'm well aware of the human brain is
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: when you've not seen something happen, you don't believe it will.
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 1: And while we and this stuff has happened, but it
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 1: happened over one hundred years ago in certain states, right,
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: I am nervous about the right. We've had the Justice
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 1: Department trying to get its hands on voter rolls and
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: they've specifically been going to blue states to do this,
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: and states that have not complied they have threatened to sue.
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: So this is going to show up in court. So
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: we'll see what kind of how important the tenth Amendment
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: is on this front. You have a recent directive where
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: I think the President plans to try to deny certain
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 1: funding to blue states if they have a quote sanctuary
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: city policy, meaning you know where there are laws in
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 1: the books that direct local law enforcement not to cooperate
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: with ice or immigration enforcement that is not criminal, you know,
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 1: And so you know, I vacillate on this one.
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 2: I think that.
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to be like, look, Jonathan
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: last over the bulwark is like, you know, the dark
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 1: days are here and it's only going to get worse. Right,
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 1: It's always darkest before goes all black. An old McCain
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: joke about that. He used to quote of Maw. I
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 1: do think that what we've watched with the current iteration
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: of the Republican Party, that there are enough folks that
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 1: are constitutionalists. No matter how much they support many of
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: the of the populist policies of the MAGA movement, they're
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: still constitutionalists at the end of the day and respectful
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 1: of the Constitution and leary you know, whether it's and
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 1: right we so I do. I think somebody inside that
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: administration may whisper ideas like this in his ear. If
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 1: it is you know, it is, if he is routed right,
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 1: if it's a route, if everything is. I guess my
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 1: fears are the super close elections that might actually need recounts.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: That's where I think this interference could get rationalized and
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 1: justified in the minds of some in this administration. So
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: I think the super close elections are ones that I
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 1: would keep an eye on that I could see suddenly
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: him feeling motivated to do this. I'm mostly bullish that
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 1: there's enough Republicans that would just you know, not go
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: down this road with him, and that Congress would be
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: a bulwark.
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 1: Look, just you know, I if Democrats win both chambers,
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 1: it means Trump's approval ratings likely in the mid to
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: high thirties at best, So that unpopularity will matter, Okay
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 1: ultimately in order to I think convince those that aren't
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 1: totally devoted to the MAGA movement because it's the only
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: way they had a political career, will suddenly are to realize, hey,
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 1: there's a there's a The public is just done with Trump.
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 2: And so.
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: That's why I guess I think ultimately, even if he
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 1: wants to do it, he's he's rained in from doing it.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: So I'm not going to sit here and rule out
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: that he wouldn't. I don't considering his behavior. As I've
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: said in a previous podcast, my great I think the
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 1: greatest risk we have right now as a country is
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: the fact that the president is feeling is feels like
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 1: he's got the virus of Yolo, the Yolo virus, right,
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 1: you only live ones virus. The ease with which he
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 1: bombed Iron without consequences, He got Maduro without what he
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 1: believes are consequences. You know, sometimes these consequences are delayed, right,
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to say we haven't we've escaped
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 1: consequences out of Venezuela yet, but in his mind, and
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: it went easier than all the you know, maybe maybe
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 1: those that were preaching caution around him.
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 2: You couple that with his.
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: You know, he's been he talks a lot about his
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 1: demise now, right, He's been talking about m I going
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 1: to get into heaven, all this stuff. It's frankly one
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 1: of the pieces of circumstantial evidence that's gotten a lot
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 1: of us wondering, huh, is this have something to do
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 1: with you having to do three annual visits to three
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 1: annual physicals in the calendar You're twenty twenty five at
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: Walter Reed, right, Is there something you know? Is there
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 1: something that they fear is coming? He has been sort
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 1: of behaving as if the end is nearer than he
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 1: wants it to be, which would then explain why his
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 1: obsession with his personal legacy, right, hurrying up and getting
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 1: his name on the Kennedy Center, trying to see if
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 1: he can get his name on currency, you know, trying
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 1: to literally physically. You know, there's a there are some
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 1: who think that Trump's only obsession with Greenland is because
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 1: it looks big on a map, and it'll make the
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 1: United States look bigger than China and Russia. And as
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 1: much as we want to laugh and snicker that that's
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 1: the way he thinks, guess what, that's the way he thinks.
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 1: So my concern is that state of mind of his,
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 1: and that there are certainly fewer people that would stop him.
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 1: But remember Bill Barr, his last Attorney General on the
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 1: first term, second to Las since he resigned. Now, he
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: resigned frankly because I think he didn't want to have
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: to confront Trump when Trump wanted to use the Justice
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 1: weaponis and Justice Department during the during the twenty twenty election.
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 1: You know, he's the one out there that that questioned
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 1: whether he should ever be near power again. Don't take
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 1: my word for it. Let me get to Ron Sass
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 1: from Phoenix, Arizona. He writes, Well, I won't shed tears
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 1: over Maduro's extraction. This Venezuela oil grab will likely haunt
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 1: Trump and the GOP well beyond his term. More concerning
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 1: our threats to seize Greenland, attacking in NATO ally could
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 1: unravel the alliance and in Bolden Russian in China if
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 1: you're responded with a naval blockade like Kennedy's in Cuba,
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 1: what our military really follow illegal orders to fire without
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 1: congressional war authorization?
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 2: Are there still.
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 1: Adults in Washington who can reign in these impulses and
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 1: remind Trump we already have long standing defense packs with
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 1: Denmark and Greenland. Well, Ron, I think everybody has put
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: their eggs in the Marco Rubio basket on this one.
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 1: And speaking of Marco Rubio, there's a fascinating massive profile
• 2:01:40
  Speaker 1: of him in the New Yorker. If you're a New
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: Yorker subscriber, you'll and you get the physical print copy.
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 1: I think when you get it, you're going to be like, oh,
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 1: I got a book on Marco Rubio with a few
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 1: cartoons surrounding it. It's a massive I think some forty
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: thousand works. Mike Pesca did a whole deep dive on
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: it and all this source and stuff, but it really
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 1: it's a Dexter Filkins piece. And for those of you
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 1: that didn't hear my interview with Dexeter Philkins six or
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: eight weeks ago, I encourage you to do it. We
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 1: really talked about the future of war a previous piece
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 1: he wrote. But this was a deep dive on Rubio
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 1: and it really does paint a portrait of essentially that
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 1: he is the Trump whisperer right on foreign policy. Look,
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 1: I've said this a million times. Without Marco Rubio, Venezuela
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 1: doesn't happen. Marco Rubio, going back to the first Trump term,
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 1: when he was trying to work his when he made
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 1: the decision. You know, he was pretty anti Trump obviously
• 2:02:40
  Speaker 1: during the sixteen campaign, and then he made the he
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 1: decided to seek reelection, and he decided to stay in
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 1: politics and evolve with Trump to be generous there. And
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 1: he became Trump's Latin American whisper in that first term,
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 1: and he made sure and then when during the during
• 2:02:57
  Speaker 1: Trump's four years an exile there at mar A Lago,
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 1: you know, Rubio was a frequent visitor and a frequent
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 1: sidekick and somebody who would bring along the Bay of Pigs,
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 1: veterans and the Cuban exile community, the Venezuelan exile community.
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 1: You know, if you want to understand and remember there's
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 1: that I point you to an interview I did with
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 1: Billy Corbin about a documentary he did, Man of War,
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 1: about sort of a failed attempt to overthrow Maduro that
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 1: had its origins with former Trump bodyman Keith Schiller. Again,
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 1: it would be hilarious if if it wasn't sadly true.
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: The point is is that what was interesting about this
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 1: piece in The New Yorker is how many unnamed European
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 1: diplomats viewed Marco Rubio as sort of their lifeline when
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 1: something goes really south with Trump, they go to Rubio
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 1: and see how can they sort of fix this right?
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 1: And look, without Marco Rubio, Trump would have already abandoned Ukraine.
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 1: So if you're wondering, I think he's that adult. I
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 1: think there are enough Republican senators who use Rubio as
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 1: a conduit and frankly go to him to try to
• 2:04:22
  Speaker 1: strengthen Rubio's backbone on this. So it may not be
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 1: a guard you know. It's sort of like you go
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 1: to war with the guardrails you have, not the guardrails
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 1: you want to paraphrase a former a Defense secretary named
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 1: Donald Rumsfeld. So I think that that's you know, I
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 1: think that that's who's if you're looking for who would
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 1: prevent what you're describing.
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're going that far. I don't think
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 1: this is going to get to military. I think I
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 1: do fear, though, that Trump may really use US financial
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 1: contributions to NATO in an attempt to leverage this. Whether
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 1: it works or not, I don't want to presume it
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 1: won't work, but I'm skeptical that it will.
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 1: Next question comes from Lucas and he asks why do
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 1: Americans broadly find the far left more repugnant than the
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 1: far right. I say this because I don't ever hear
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 1: about Republicans needing to moderate in order to grow their base,
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 1: yet this repeatedly seems to be a theme for Democrats. Well,
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 1: part of it is numbers, right, you know, those self
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 1: described conservatives still out numbers self described liberals. So I
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 1: think part of it is a base is sort of
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 1: just one size.
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 1: The Republicans start with a larger base, so they don't
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 1: need as many swing voters as Democrats do. So it's
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 1: just a simple numbers game. There are more self described
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 1: conservatives than self described liberals. Now is the self described
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 1: liberal numbered growing?
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 2: Yes? It is? Is the gap.
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 1: Smaller today than it was in a long time. Yes,
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 1: it is, but the fact is that Democrats need a
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 1: larger share of independent voters to get a majority than
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 1: Republicans do at the moment. By the way, it wasn't
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 1: that long ago that Republicans were told they needed to
• 2:06:18
  Speaker 1: moderate if they wanted to win national elections. Again, go
• 2:06:21
  Speaker 1: back to the RNC twenty thirteen autopsy, which said, hey,
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 1: it needed to pull back on its rhetoric on immigration.
• 2:06:29
  Speaker 1: Now it turns out Trump had had an entirely different
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 1: theory of the case on how to win over Latino voters,
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 1: but at the time that was the prevailing conventional wisdom.
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 1: So it really this is very recency biased. It's the
• 2:06:44
  Speaker 1: moment we're living in now. When it looked like it
• 2:06:46
  Speaker 1: was the Democrats that had the larger base to start
• 2:06:49
  Speaker 1: from and that they needed a smaller shrif swing voters,
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 1: it was Republicans that were being urged to moderate, which
• 2:06:59
  Speaker 1: is the entire thirteen twenty fourteen conversation after the Romney defeat.
• 2:07:05
  Speaker 1: So when he was a severe conservative right and all
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 1: of those things. So I would remind you that this
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 1: stuff's a bit cyclical one, but there it's right now
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 1: it's a simple numbers issue, and yes, the Republican base
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 1: is part of it. You know, I've always thought some
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 1: of this is also.
• 2:07:30
  Speaker 2: Gender related.
• 2:07:34
  Speaker 1: If Democrats could cut into the Republican advantage among men,
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 1: I think they would also generally. So it's sort of like,
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 1: how do you and this gets at the whole manisphere
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 1: debate and all this or that, but I think that's the.
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 2: Look.
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 1: I think the opening here to picking off more sort
• 2:07:57
  Speaker 1: of is to is to sort of rebrand liberalism as
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 1: pro constitution as sort of and I think the Conservatives
• 2:08:08
  Speaker 1: did a better job of branding themselves constitutionalists and that
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 1: they were making the case that it was the liberals
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 1: that we're trying to overread the Constitution. Well, now I
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 1: think that's in reverse. And I think a lot of
• 2:08:20
  Speaker 1: people feel as if their privacy and all this stuff.
• 2:08:23
  Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of just basic protection of rights,
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 1: not even expansion of rights.
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 1: I think, you know, arguably the divide between just on
• 2:08:35
  Speaker 1: the rights front, right conservatives generally were trying to protect
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 1: rights that they believed already existed, and liberals were fighting
• 2:08:42
  Speaker 1: to expand rights for Americans that we're not getting what
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 1: they deserve. I think now we have a situation where
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 1: conservatives are no longer in the protecting rights category. Trump
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 1: has sort of driven them in a different direction. He's
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 1: trying to redefine what right, what the interpretation of the
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 1: Constitution in ways that I think a majority of the
• 2:09:05
  Speaker 1: public isn't going to like. So I do think there's
• 2:09:07
  Speaker 1: an opportunity to redefine liberalism as being more protecting of
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 1: individual rights and getting finding a way into that, into
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 1: that messaging I think could help rebrand liberalism right now.
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 1: I think it is. It is, it's too you know,
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 1: it's not seen as strong. Maybe unfair to say that,
• 2:09:36
  Speaker 1: but I think that that's that's that's one of the
• 2:09:38
  Speaker 1: key critiques there. Let's see here last question and then
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 1: I've got a I've got a few sports rants to
• 2:09:46
  Speaker 1: share with you. Last question comes from Nick Smith of Denver, Colorado,
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 1: and he said, should we be concerned that the markets
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 1: shrugged off further loss of fed independence, especially under presidency
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 1: that treats the stock market as a scoreboard. I fear
• 2:09:58
  Speaker 1: the lack of reaction only emboldens the administ as institutional
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 1: norms a road on a lighter note, if you had
• 2:10:03
  Speaker 1: to had to staff a presidential cabinet with former NFL players,
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 1: Who would you choose and why? I'm thinking Joe Thomas
• 2:10:08
  Speaker 1: for act Secretary, Pat Tillman for Defense. Yeah. The problem
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 1: with Pat Dillman is you're not there. But it's a
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 1: fun exercise on that. You know, growing up a Packer fan,
• 2:10:20
  Speaker 1: I think I wanted Ray Nichke at defense, right. You know,
• 2:10:23
  Speaker 1: if he was our defense secretary, would anybody attack us?
• 2:10:25
  Speaker 1: Right with that menacing face?
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 2: You know?
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 1: But let me answer the first question there. I I
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 1: actually think the market reaction and Scott Besson's reaction and
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 1: Senate Republicans reaction has totally gotten them to back off.
• 2:10:44
  Speaker 1: And in fact, Janine Piro suddenly right, Well, I didn't.
• 2:10:49
  Speaker 1: I just was it's just fact finding, and it's just this.
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of think that they did walk back,
• 2:10:57
  Speaker 1: So I'm I.
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 2: Don't see it as a shrug.
• 2:11:02
  Speaker 1: I see as that there's some guardrails quickly were erected,
• 2:11:05
  Speaker 1: and it quickly got Trump to back off. Because notice,
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 1: and I don't know when you sent in this question,
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 1: you know, but I would perhaps between then and now
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 1: you might see what I'm talking about here. And I
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 1: think that when Scott bessnt very loudly said that he
• 2:11:26
  Speaker 1: told Trump this was a bad idea. I think that
• 2:11:29
  Speaker 1: was an attempt to speak to the bond markets to
• 2:11:31
  Speaker 1: keep them calm, that said, you know, and those that
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 1: have been whispering in his ears, noting that hey, this
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 1: is weakening the dollar, this is doing this. So I
• 2:11:44
  Speaker 1: think the most important development is the fact that j
• 2:11:49
  Speaker 1: Powell was willing to be so public. To me, that's
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 1: another crack in sort of Trump's script on power, right
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 1: there isn't this you know it cam Me couldn't felt
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 1: like he couldn't do it for a variety of reasons.
• 2:12:05
  Speaker 1: Leticia James has you know, been cautious and how much
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 1: he's publicly pushed back the fact that Jay Powell felt
• 2:12:12
  Speaker 1: so comfortable doing that. He didn't do it because he
• 2:12:14
  Speaker 1: didn't have support within the within the finance community. That's
• 2:12:19
  Speaker 1: just something that's thinking about there. But sort of other
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 1: NFL players here, man, you've you've You've got me thinking
• 2:12:29
  Speaker 1: of other former NFL players, you know, I think I
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 1: would want I think you definitely have to have Bill
• 2:12:37
  Speaker 1: Belichick and Tom Brady at the c I a right spygate,
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 1: So that's a that's a natural you want them in
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 1: the counterintelligence space.
• 2:12:46
  Speaker 2: They were pretty good at it on that front. I
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 2: can't wait.
• 2:12:51
  Speaker 1: You know, it's one of those that I wish I
• 2:12:52
  Speaker 1: had a laugh track, right because I know that's a
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 1: good line. I know that's gonna land okay with some
• 2:12:56
  Speaker 1: people now. Hating on the Patriots is fun right on
• 2:13:01
  Speaker 1: that front.
• 2:13:03
  Speaker 2: Let me think of what other.
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 1: What other places I would go.
• 2:13:10
  Speaker 2: With that. I think i'd put Kirk Cousins as Secretary
• 2:13:13
  Speaker 2: of Treasury. Why am I saying that?
• 2:13:15
  Speaker 1: Because this dude figured out how to make money at
• 2:13:18
  Speaker 1: all these stocks. He's a good quarterback but got paid
• 2:13:21
  Speaker 1: like a great quarterback. So give me that guy for
• 2:13:25
  Speaker 1: fine for treasury. Let's see who would be our best
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 1: former football player as diplomat? Hmm, maybe Dion Sanders. I
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 1: know he's loud, right, I know he's painting bright colors
• 2:13:45
  Speaker 1: if you will. But he is a way of getting
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 1: along with everybody, and ultimately you want that with diplomacy.
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 1: So maybe I'll put Dion there. You gotta find a
• 2:14:00
  Speaker 1: place for the Rock. I think that's a given. You know.
• 2:14:06
  Speaker 1: I know he basically only had a cup of coffee
• 2:14:08
  Speaker 1: in the NFL, but I think he'd qualify on that front.
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 1: So you got to find a place for the rock.
• 2:14:16
  Speaker 1: All right, I've I'm I'm now I feel like i'm
• 2:14:19
  Speaker 1: I'm babbling here and I've spitball too much.
• 2:14:21
  Speaker 2: So I will.
• 2:14:23
  Speaker 1: I will, I will put a pin in this. But
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 1: if I think of some more ideas, Nick, I will,
• 2:14:29
  Speaker 1: I will shoot it to you. Anyway, appreciate the questions.
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 1: Remember ask Chuck at the Chuck podcast dot com.
• 2:14:45
  Speaker 2: I got a few sports rants and when I get
• 2:14:47
  Speaker 2: off my chest.
• 2:14:48
  Speaker 1: First of all, this will be my last sort of
• 2:14:49
  Speaker 1: full podcast before I hopefully witness the University of Miami's
• 2:14:55
  Speaker 1: uh six national title, or at least six national title
• 2:14:58
  Speaker 1: that everybody recognize. I know, there's all sorts of weird
• 2:15:02
  Speaker 1: national titles that used to be handed out. The New
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 1: York Times computer used to hand out a national title.
• 2:15:07
  Speaker 1: I think Miami's won two or three extra those over
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 1: the years and years that they didn't win it other places.
• 2:15:14
  Speaker 1: I remember reading Ole miss has claimed three national titles,
• 2:15:17
  Speaker 1: but only one was one of those that was sort
• 2:15:19
  Speaker 1: of considered a consensus national title. But that is sort
• 2:15:22
  Speaker 1: of the craziness and the fun of college football. But
• 2:15:26
  Speaker 1: just sort of a quick note, my Miami wins the
• 2:15:32
  Speaker 1: game if they win the game. My guess is they
• 2:15:35
  Speaker 1: don't score more than twenty four points, that it is
• 2:15:38
  Speaker 1: a for Miami to win the game. They turn it
• 2:15:40
  Speaker 1: into a rock fight, and I think Miami can win
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 1: a rock fight. I also think Indiana can win a
• 2:15:46
  Speaker 1: rock fight. But ultimately I think the winning formula is
• 2:15:50
  Speaker 1: rock fight. Indiana wins the game if they get to
• 2:15:56
  Speaker 1: a quick they get to an early lead and Miami
• 2:15:59
  Speaker 1: has to play catch up.
• 2:16:02
  Speaker 2: I am.
• 2:16:03
  Speaker 1: I'm also curious what happens to Mendoza if he has
• 2:16:08
  Speaker 1: to play catchup if Miami can get an early lead.
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 1: So ultimately, I think the first quarter it's one of
• 2:16:17
  Speaker 1: those I know this is I think the first quarter
• 2:16:19
  Speaker 1: is going to be very decisive in this game in
• 2:16:23
  Speaker 1: who you know, who gets to set the tone of
• 2:16:26
  Speaker 1: the of the game, right if it's slow and plotting.
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 1: This is one of those cases where do I want,
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 1: you know, I think you always want to have the
• 2:16:35
  Speaker 1: ball in the second half. But if Miami did get
• 2:16:38
  Speaker 1: the ball first, I wouldn't mind because I think if
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 1: they could methodically, even if they only get three, you
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 1: eat up eight to ten minutes and get points. You
• 2:16:50
  Speaker 1: just sort of shorten the game and the shorter the
• 2:16:52
  Speaker 1: game is I think advantage advantage Miami. But another big
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 1: part of this is how well is it? If what
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 1: well is a strong word, what kind of officiating does
• 2:17:03
  Speaker 1: this game have? Those Big ten officials were kind of
• 2:17:07
  Speaker 1: flag happy. Those SEC officials, my word, we had SEC
• 2:17:12
  Speaker 1: officials for that Ohio State game. Boy, they didn't want
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 1: to they they led, They did the old let them play.
• 2:17:19
  Speaker 1: If these two teams are allowed to play, they quote
• 2:17:22
  Speaker 1: let them play, officials. That's also advantage Miami on this front.
• 2:17:27
  Speaker 2: And so you know, we'll see.
• 2:17:30
  Speaker 1: I am I'm clearly hopeful. I think Miami's being way
• 2:17:35
  Speaker 1: underrated here on this front.
• 2:17:38
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 2:17:39
  Speaker 1: Indiana's story is the Indiana story. I saw a fun
• 2:17:43
  Speaker 1: little comparison that the best corollary to Indiana twenty twenty
• 2:17:47
  Speaker 1: five is actually Miami nineteen eighty three. Right, if Miami
• 2:17:51
  Speaker 1: doesn't win that first national title against Nebraska, are they
• 2:17:55
  Speaker 1: a flash in the pan that never goes anywhere again
• 2:17:58
  Speaker 1: or an And you know, because what people forget about
• 2:18:02
  Speaker 1: the eighty three Miami team is the eighty three Miami
• 2:18:04
  Speaker 1: team had maybe two pros. Okay, it had some NFL talent,
• 2:18:08
  Speaker 1: but it was not like the teams in eighty seven,
• 2:18:11
  Speaker 1: eighty nine, ninety one that just dominated recruiting in South Florida.
• 2:18:16
  Speaker 1: And if Indiana wins right, they suddenly are get to
• 2:18:22
  Speaker 1: flex like Ohio State and Michigan and they become a
• 2:18:25
  Speaker 1: destination program. Miami winning in eighty three made them a
• 2:18:28
  Speaker 1: destination program. This is why I think a Miami victory here,
• 2:18:33
  Speaker 1: you know, pays huge dividends because it basically brings the
• 2:18:38
  Speaker 1: South Florida high school football community sort of back into
• 2:18:41
  Speaker 1: focus for the University of Miami. But I do think,
• 2:18:47
  Speaker 1: you know, I do think there's something to be said
• 2:18:49
  Speaker 1: that Indiana twenty twenty five Miami nineteen eighty three, that
• 2:18:53
  Speaker 1: it's a fascinating book ind there, but for Miami to
• 2:18:57
  Speaker 1: be back into sort of the elite.
• 2:18:59
  Speaker 2: Of college football.
• 2:19:02
  Speaker 1: I do like the other part of this that they
• 2:19:05
  Speaker 1: were unlike that Miami nineteen eighty three team. Indiana is
• 2:19:10
  Speaker 1: not the underdog anymore. Indiana is the heavy favorite. Miami's
• 2:19:13
  Speaker 1: the one that's the underdog. So just realize and if
• 2:19:16
  Speaker 1: you're playing point spread games, the team with more NFL
• 2:19:20
  Speaker 1: talent and the team playing at home is getting eight
• 2:19:24
  Speaker 1: and a half points and a point I made with
• 2:19:27
  Speaker 1: my friend Tony Corneiser on his show when I was
• 2:19:30
  Speaker 1: picking games, Miami hasn't lost by more than seven but
• 2:19:34
  Speaker 1: more than eight points in three years. Mario crystabal does
• 2:19:40
  Speaker 1: not Mario crystabal. Teams just don't play the type of
• 2:19:44
  Speaker 1: game to get blown out. If it happens, God bless them.
• 2:19:50
  Speaker 1: Good for you, Indiana. But that's the part of this
• 2:19:54
  Speaker 1: that I'm extraordinarily skeptical of. I obviously think we're going
• 2:19:57
  Speaker 1: to win this game. You know, it's not just that
• 2:19:59
  Speaker 1: I want to win this game. I really think they're
• 2:20:01
  Speaker 1: going to win this game. I think they're the better team.
• 2:20:04
  Speaker 1: But we're going to find out on the field. But
• 2:20:06
  Speaker 1: I certainly believe they're a team that's not going to
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 1: get blown out. There's a few other thing, two quick
• 2:20:16
  Speaker 1: rants that I want to get off my chest. One
• 2:20:20
  Speaker 1: so over the holidays, I may I spend a little
• 2:20:24
  Speaker 1: bit of time in a casino. And you know, we
• 2:20:28
  Speaker 1: have this income inequality problem all over the map, right
• 2:20:31
  Speaker 1: and you see it show up in ways sometimes that
• 2:20:34
  Speaker 1: are not obvious. But one of the pet peeves. You
• 2:20:37
  Speaker 1: know this has been happening. You know it's been happening
• 2:20:40
  Speaker 1: in Vegas for a while I like to play blackjack.
• 2:20:44
  Speaker 1: And you know, one of the things you really have
• 2:20:46
  Speaker 1: to be careful of with blackjack right there is number
• 2:20:49
  Speaker 1: one is those Rodo dealer machines that look like Rollodex
• 2:20:53
  Speaker 1: is back in the day that just spit out cards.
• 2:20:55
  Speaker 1: There's never even you know, I'll take an automatic shuffler
• 2:20:58
  Speaker 1: as long as we're using a shoe right and that
• 2:21:01
  Speaker 1: you see the cards go in, you know, you know,
• 2:21:03
  Speaker 1: et cetera. But the ones that just automatic, right I
• 2:21:06
  Speaker 1: you know that that is designed to help the house,
• 2:21:10
  Speaker 1: not help the player. And then you've had the chipping
• 2:21:13
  Speaker 1: away of how much money you win on a blackjack
• 2:21:17
  Speaker 1: And in all of these places that I've been, it
• 2:21:20
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter whether you're in Las Vegas, the Bahamas, a
• 2:21:23
  Speaker 1: casino in Miami, at casino in Oklahoma that in order
• 2:21:28
  Speaker 1: to chip away at the and help the house, that
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 1: they now pay six to five for blackjack rather than
• 2:21:37
  Speaker 1: three to two. So to give you an example of
• 2:21:40
  Speaker 1: what that is is if you play a ten dollars
• 2:21:42
  Speaker 1: blackjack table, you get blackjack and you're getting paid six
• 2:21:45
  Speaker 1: to five, you get twelve dollars. But if you get
• 2:21:47
  Speaker 1: blackjack at a table that plays pays three to two, you.
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 2: Get fifteen dollars.
• 2:21:52
  Speaker 1: That adds up, and it actually changes the overall odds.
• 2:21:56
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:21:56
  Speaker 1: The reason blackjack ultimately is one of the one of
• 2:22:00
  Speaker 1: the table games in theory that you have the best
• 2:22:02
  Speaker 1: odds is because you know, if you play for a
• 2:22:04
  Speaker 1: long enough time, you're going to get a certain amount
• 2:22:07
  Speaker 1: of blackjacks. And you know that's why playing consistently is
• 2:22:11
  Speaker 1: the way to at least give yourself the best chance
• 2:22:14
  Speaker 1: to beat the house at any given time. But here's
• 2:22:18
  Speaker 1: where this income inequality aspect comes into this. If you
• 2:22:24
  Speaker 1: want better odds, if you want the old odds for blackjack,
• 2:22:28
  Speaker 1: you can get them at all of these casinos. If
• 2:22:30
  Speaker 1: you're willing to bet, to go to higher tables one
• 2:22:34
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars tables two hundred dollars a hand tables, Well,
• 2:22:38
  Speaker 1: not a lot of people want to bet, want to
• 2:22:41
  Speaker 1: play blackjack at one hundred dollars a hand, but they
• 2:22:45
  Speaker 1: literally are giving those that can afford to bet one
• 2:22:48
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars or add better odds. And if you want
• 2:22:52
  Speaker 1: to only play you can only afford a ten to
• 2:22:54
  Speaker 1: fifteen dollars, you get lesser odds. So you know, it's
• 2:22:58
  Speaker 1: a small thing, but it sort of is a part.
• 2:23:02
  Speaker 1: It's it's this, you know, it's like all these different
• 2:23:05
  Speaker 1: ways where we are creating two sets of rules. If
• 2:23:09
  Speaker 1: you have money, you get better odds, and if you
• 2:23:12
  Speaker 1: don't have money, you get worse odds. If that's not
• 2:23:15
  Speaker 1: a metaphor for right now life in America, I don't
• 2:23:19
  Speaker 1: know what else is, right. I mean again, I know
• 2:23:22
  Speaker 1: it's I know it's quote unquote just about blackjack, but
• 2:23:28
  Speaker 1: it really does is an example of you know, if
• 2:23:33
  Speaker 1: you have money, you get treated better, and if you don't,
• 2:23:36
  Speaker 1: you don't. That's not what America was supposed to be
• 2:23:40
  Speaker 1: premised on, right in some ways, Right, if you're a
• 2:23:44
  Speaker 1: friend of King George, you got treated better then if
• 2:23:46
  Speaker 1: you weren't a friend of King George. It's the world
• 2:23:51
  Speaker 1: that feels like we're living in now.
• 2:23:53
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:23:53
  Speaker 1: It's pay to play here in Washington, d C. Right,
• 2:23:56
  Speaker 1: if you've got if you want access to King Trump,
• 2:24:02
  Speaker 1: you got to pay to get it. You've got to
• 2:24:04
  Speaker 1: be of a certain status, and you've got to be
• 2:24:06
  Speaker 1: of a certain amount of money. It's just, you know,
• 2:24:11
  Speaker 1: it is It's a small thing, but it's emblematic, right,
• 2:24:17
  Speaker 1: And you know I would just urge these casino companies.
• 2:24:22
  Speaker 1: You're already making a shitload of money. Do you really
• 2:24:27
  Speaker 1: got to nickel and dime your ten dollars customers, you
• 2:24:31
  Speaker 1: got a nickel and dime. You're working class and middle
• 2:24:33
  Speaker 1: class folks that want to enjoy a casino. You're already
• 2:24:38
  Speaker 1: taking advantage of them with the ridiculous slot machine business. Right,
• 2:24:43
  Speaker 1: You've already sort of goosed the odds there, But now
• 2:24:45
  Speaker 1: you're going to nickel and dime people that are smart
• 2:24:48
  Speaker 1: about cards, but maybe don't have the bankroll to go
• 2:24:51
  Speaker 1: into the private room, or they don't have the bankroll
• 2:24:53
  Speaker 1: to afford a one hundred dollars hand or fifty dollars.
• 2:24:56
  Speaker 1: It's just it's it's really it's like it's in your faith, yes,
• 2:25:01
  Speaker 1: and it sending a message that, oh, you know, you
• 2:25:06
  Speaker 1: get treated better if you have more money, and yeah,
• 2:25:08
  Speaker 1: that is a fact of life that that happens. But
• 2:25:13
  Speaker 1: can we not like embed it, right, can you know?
• 2:25:18
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe that's the way human nature is, but
• 2:25:20
  Speaker 1: let's not embed it as policy, you know. And again,
• 2:25:24
  Speaker 1: it's a small thing, but it is symbolic of a
• 2:25:29
  Speaker 1: larger problem we're dealing with in society. And it's not
• 2:25:33
  Speaker 1: just in America, and it's arguably why we're in the
• 2:25:37
  Speaker 1: polarized situation that we're in. So again, it's a small thing.
• 2:25:41
  Speaker 1: It's an example on blackjack, but it is, but it
• 2:25:47
  Speaker 1: is emblematic of this mindset too often that we have,
• 2:25:51
  Speaker 1: which is you reward people that already have and you
• 2:25:55
  Speaker 1: punish people that don't. One other rant, it's sports related,
• 2:26:01
  Speaker 1: So I get this. The Nationals are one of these
• 2:26:04
  Speaker 1: teams that don't have a TV right now, do not
• 2:26:08
  Speaker 1: have a TV provider, They don't have a channel that
• 2:26:12
  Speaker 1: they're on locally. We used to be on something called Masson.
• 2:26:16
  Speaker 1: It was something that was owned by the Orioles. It
• 2:26:18
  Speaker 1: was all designed is sort of to compensate the Orioles
• 2:26:22
  Speaker 1: for taking the DC market away from away from Peter
• 2:26:25
  Speaker 1: Angelo's back when he owned the team. At some point
• 2:26:28
  Speaker 1: it was supposed to end. It's been an absolute nightmare
• 2:26:31
  Speaker 1: for the Nationals. It is arguably what is sort of
• 2:26:34
  Speaker 1: tied the hands of this current ownership group, and I
• 2:26:37
  Speaker 1: think they would would have sold the team a couple
• 2:26:39
  Speaker 1: of years ago if an owner thought that they weren't
• 2:26:44
  Speaker 1: tied up in this mass and mess. So we're getting
• 2:26:47
  Speaker 1: out of the mass and mess. So I get this
• 2:26:49
  Speaker 1: email a new way to watch National Games introducing a
• 2:26:53
  Speaker 1: new way to watch national games in twenty twenty six
• 2:26:56
  Speaker 1: right stream all games, and it it says click here
• 2:26:59
  Speaker 1: to learn more. So I'm excited. I'm clicking here to
• 2:27:02
  Speaker 1: learn more. And it says beginning this season, fans can
• 2:27:06
  Speaker 1: watch Nationals dot TV on cable, satellite, or in the
• 2:27:09
  Speaker 1: MLB APP. I'm like great, and then it says click
• 2:27:14
  Speaker 1: click to view in market streaming FAQ and then click
• 2:27:18
  Speaker 1: to view satellite, cable or MVPD viewing options FAQ. Okay,
• 2:27:24
  Speaker 1: So I'm like, all right, let me figure out this
• 2:27:26
  Speaker 1: satellite cable aspect. Can I still watch Nationals games through
• 2:27:31
  Speaker 1: my satellite or cable provider? The answers says yes, Nationals
• 2:27:35
  Speaker 1: dot TV will be available on select cable and satellite providers.
• 2:27:38
  Speaker 1: Specific providers in cable channel locations will be announced closer
• 2:27:42
  Speaker 1: to the start of the season. Next question, what channel
• 2:27:46
  Speaker 1: will NATIONALSTV dot TV? Beyond specific channel locations and cable
• 2:27:50
  Speaker 1: and satellite providers will be announced later this offseason. We
• 2:27:53
  Speaker 1: expect that the channel locations will be located near other
• 2:27:56
  Speaker 1: sports programming.
• 2:27:57
  Speaker 2: How do I watch.
• 2:27:58
  Speaker 1: Nationals Baseball if I live outside of the local area
• 2:28:01
  Speaker 1: MLB dot tv subscribers, well, we already knew that. The
• 2:28:05
  Speaker 1: point is, they make this announcement, they have nothing to announce.
• 2:28:09
  Speaker 1: They don't know if the Nationals dot tv where it's airing.
• 2:28:12
  Speaker 1: They've made no deals with YouTube TV, made no deals
• 2:28:16
  Speaker 1: with direct TV, with Dish, with Comcast, with Exfinity, whatever,
• 2:28:19
  Speaker 1: you know, Charter cocks, whatever is left on how this works.
• 2:28:25
  Speaker 1: And they still put this out come on guys, We're
• 2:28:29
  Speaker 1: all wondering. Oh, and it got it got even worse
• 2:28:32
  Speaker 1: here because this gets at the whole because this really chat.
• 2:28:36
  Speaker 1: It's going to chap a lot of fans. You know what,
• 2:28:40
  Speaker 1: First it says, will I be able to stream Nationals games?
• 2:28:44
  Speaker 1: The answers yes, Nationals dot TV on MLB dot tv
• 2:28:47
  Speaker 1: includes access to all local Nationals games on a variety
• 2:28:49
  Speaker 1: of devices. And then as it's how will it work
• 2:28:52
  Speaker 1: and how much will it cost? Nationals dot tv and
• 2:28:55
  Speaker 1: market streaming packages will be purchased for a discounted rate
• 2:28:58
  Speaker 1: at ninety nine dollars per year or nineteen ninety nine
• 2:29:01
  Speaker 1: per month, So you're gonna have to pay directly to
• 2:29:06
  Speaker 1: the Nationals to get access locally. But wait, there's more,
• 2:29:11
  Speaker 1: are there any blackouts in market?
• 2:29:13
  Speaker 2: Nationals?
• 2:29:13
  Speaker 1: Dot TV subscribers can stream all local Nationals broadcasts with
• 2:29:17
  Speaker 1: no blackouts in market Nationals dot TV. So you're asking
• 2:29:22
  Speaker 1: local fans now to pay, and I guess this is
• 2:29:27
  Speaker 1: the future of television. But you know, when you've lived
• 2:29:30
  Speaker 1: in a world where you already have a cable subscription,
• 2:29:32
  Speaker 1: or you know, you just you hope your local baseball
• 2:29:35
  Speaker 1: and your local MBA and your local NHL is just
• 2:29:37
  Speaker 1: going to be on your cable system. Well now they
• 2:29:41
  Speaker 1: you know, they're just going to cut it out and
• 2:29:42
  Speaker 1: you're going to have to have a So we go
• 2:29:44
  Speaker 1: from having a specific subscription for our streaming platforms and
• 2:29:49
  Speaker 1: our cable subscribers to now we're gonna have to have
• 2:29:51
  Speaker 1: direct subscriptions to to the team in order to watch
• 2:29:58
  Speaker 1: the team locally. I mean, my goodness, even the NFL
• 2:30:01
  Speaker 1: is not making you do this, right the NFL. If
• 2:30:04
  Speaker 1: you're a Commander's fan here in Washington, the Washington game
• 2:30:07
  Speaker 1: is going to be on local TV and you're not
• 2:30:09
  Speaker 1: going to have to pay extra money for it, but
• 2:30:12
  Speaker 1: you are if you're a Nationals fan, I have to say, Look,
• 2:30:15
  Speaker 1: I understand they're in a box here, and it's kind
• 2:30:18
  Speaker 1: of we're going to live in this temporary It's like
• 2:30:20
  Speaker 1: you're living out of a suitcase as a franchise at
• 2:30:23
  Speaker 1: the moment. With not having a devoted sort of TV partner,
• 2:30:29
  Speaker 1: which they don't, they're basically outsourcing this to MLB. I
• 2:30:33
  Speaker 1: know this is a total mess, the Sinclair matt regional mess,
• 2:30:37
  Speaker 1: and that this whole thing is just screwed up. I
• 2:30:42
  Speaker 1: empathize to a point, But there is some alternatives here, right,
• 2:30:47
  Speaker 1: and you have a nationals organization that may may or
• 2:30:50
  Speaker 1: may not want to sell to ted Leonsis, who owned
• 2:30:52
  Speaker 1: something called Monumental Sports, which is sort of the local
• 2:30:55
  Speaker 1: sports around here. That would be the easy way to
• 2:30:59
  Speaker 1: cut a deal. For whatever reason, they don't.
• 2:31:02
  Speaker 2: Want to do that.
• 2:31:03
  Speaker 1: But you're doing a disservice to your fans. Look, they
• 2:31:06
  Speaker 1: already are doing a disservice to us by no longer
• 2:31:08
  Speaker 1: being interested in building a winning baseball team for the
• 2:31:11
  Speaker 1: next two or three years.
• 2:31:12
  Speaker 2: They're actually doing.
• 2:31:13
  Speaker 1: More of a teardown in order to extend this five
• 2:31:16
  Speaker 1: year rebuild another five years. So you know, that's what
• 2:31:20
  Speaker 1: happens when you have ownership that doesn't want to spend
• 2:31:22
  Speaker 1: any money but now we're going to get nickel and
• 2:31:26
  Speaker 1: dimed in order to watch our Triple A franchise on
• 2:31:28
  Speaker 1: the major league level. We're going to have to pay
• 2:31:31
  Speaker 1: more money to do this. Now, I'm an addict. I
• 2:31:33
  Speaker 1: love my Nats. I'm still going to be hopeful because
• 2:31:38
  Speaker 1: that's what we baseball fans are. But just you know,
• 2:31:41
  Speaker 1: this is just a communications one on one. If you
• 2:31:44
  Speaker 1: have nothing to announce, don't announce it. They put out
• 2:31:49
  Speaker 1: this huge release to say here it is, you're gonna
• 2:31:52
  Speaker 1: be able to watch Nationals dot TV on cable. Well,
• 2:31:55
  Speaker 1: we can't tell you where on cable, we can't tell
• 2:31:57
  Speaker 1: you where on satellite. We can't really tell you anything
• 2:31:59
  Speaker 1: about it other than we're going to if you if
• 2:32:02
  Speaker 1: you don't want to find it, If we don't come
• 2:32:04
  Speaker 1: up with a cable or satellite partner, and we don't
• 2:32:07
  Speaker 1: cut a deal with a local TV affiliate, we're going
• 2:32:10
  Speaker 1: to make you pay to watch the Nationals on TV. Anyway,
• 2:32:18
  Speaker 1: Baseball is an incredible game that has a lot of
• 2:32:22
  Speaker 1: messed up business practices, and this is just a reminder
• 2:32:27
  Speaker 1: of just how screwed up the entire media ecosystem has come.
• 2:32:34
  Speaker 1: And you know how much we're all being charged to
• 2:32:38
  Speaker 1: watch sports, and we're all being you know, it's I
• 2:32:41
  Speaker 1: will say this, I worry that we are we you know,
• 2:32:45
  Speaker 1: just like I was ranting about what we're doing to
• 2:32:49
  Speaker 1: working class people at casinos, that we're essentially going to
• 2:32:52
  Speaker 1: start pricing people out of being able to watch sports
• 2:32:54
  Speaker 1: at home.
• 2:32:57
  Speaker 2: Is that really what you want? Rob Manfred? Seriously? Is
• 2:33:02
  Speaker 2: that what you want? Is that good for the game.
• 2:33:04
  Speaker 1: Don't you want the biggest possible audience to be watching
• 2:33:07
  Speaker 1: baseball and not put it behind a velvet rope? Anyway,
• 2:33:13
  Speaker 1: all right, brant over, hopefully the next time I come
• 2:33:17
  Speaker 1: to you, Actually that's not true, because I'm going to
• 2:33:19
  Speaker 1: drop an episode on Monday before the game, so you
• 2:33:23
  Speaker 1: will hear there'll be one more episode before then. I know,
• 2:33:29
  Speaker 1: we're all I'm I've had a hard time focusing on
• 2:33:32
  Speaker 1: all sorts of other things because of this moment. It's
• 2:33:35
  Speaker 1: been a wonderful distraction. But for me, it has meant
• 2:33:39
  Speaker 1: holiday season extends all the way to January nineteenth, and
• 2:33:42
  Speaker 1: it will end about eleven thirty Eastern time at hard
• 2:33:47
  Speaker 1: Rock Stadium. So hopefully I'm in a good mood after that.
• 2:33:52
  Speaker 1: So with that, enjoy weekend. Thanks for supporting this both
• 2:33:58
  Speaker 1: audio and video podcast.
• 2:33:59
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it.
• 2:34:00
  Speaker 1: If you've got any comments, questions, queries, or complaints, shoot
• 2:34:05
  Speaker 1: them to ask Chuck at the Chuck podcast dot com.
• 2:34:07
  Speaker 1: And with that, I'll see in about ninety six hours