Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Reeves' Heathrow-Fueled Growth Plan, DeepSeek and the Effect on US Big Tech, and Mini-Bubbles are Bubblin'

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Reeves' Heathrow-Fueled Growth Plan, DeepSeek and the Effect on US Big Tech, and Mini-Bubbles are Bubblin' · Merryn Talks Money

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Merin
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Trugs Money Weekly round Up, our debrief on the biggest
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: stories in markets and economics. I'm Merin Zumzet, Web Editor
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: at Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: And I'm joint therapey, author of the Money Distilled newsletter
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: and senior reporter for Bloomberg.
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: Excellent, John, your Scottish?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Yes, can you tell?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: And you said to me the other day that I
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: was the token Scott in the run, but kind of
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not.
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: You're You're the actual Scott in the run.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: So you will have noticed that a court has just
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: ruled that the consent for two new Scottish oil and
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: gasfield has been granted unlawfully and their owners must seek
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: fresh approval from the UK government before product you can begin.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: And I thought I would just mention that because we're
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: going to talk about a couple of things today, and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: the first thing we're going to talk about is Rachel
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Reeves and her drive for growth, because it is her mission, her.
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: Drive for growth.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: And then we're going to talk about deep seek and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: the US dot market and AI a little bit. But
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I just thought a fabulous introduction to talking about who
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: we now call poor Rachel Reeves is this fact that
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: every way a government turns, there's a court there, often
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: with Greenpeace behind it, say actually, no, you can't.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: And do you remember poor Rachel? Last week she said?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: The answer can't always be no. She said that Davil
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: didn't she Well, you know what, Rachel, The answer always
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: is no.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: What's she going to do about it? What is she
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: going to do about it? John?
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Normally I would feel that it's not necessarily a good
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: thing you have a lawyer as a prime minister. But
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: I'm starting to feel that maybe that is the kind
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: of wine great sport about Kirstana's being the prime minister.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: It's like the level of I mean, people call it
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: judicial activism, and I get that. But the only reason
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: that this stuff can happen is because a politician passed
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: a lot at some point in the past that Noney
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: has quite noticed the repercussions of at the time. So
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: we need, we do need to do something about this.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: It shouldn't really be up to a small pressure group
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: bringing i mean quite a fringe kind of case that
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: can then shut down something that the democratically elected government
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: has already approved. This isn't okay. Actually the course of
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: going too far. There's a lot of examples of this
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: sort of stuff and it needs to stop. Unfortunately, I'm
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: not a lawyer, nor a politician, not someone who is
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: deeping the weeds on this stuff, so I don't know
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: how this has come about, but we need to get idiot.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: It just needs to end because it's not acceptable we
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: have this kind of thing continuously stopping is from getting in.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: It's absurd.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: And when you look at the I'm just going to
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: say before we start here, hate mail directly to John
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: not me, right, because he's Scottish, so probably he was
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: the one who wanted these oil fields in the first place.
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: Not me totally, but yes.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: But the case is we talked about Aberdeen last week,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: didn't we. But the cases were bought by two environmental
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: campaigning groups, and Greenpeace obviously and another one called Uplift.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: And I haven't done this yet, but I'm pretty sure
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: that if we check where the cash that goes to
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Uplift and Greenpeace comes from, we'll find that quite a
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: lot of it comes one way or another via our
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: tax contributions.
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: So we are caught in this ridiculous situation.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: By time after time after time you find the government
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: thoughted by government taxpayer financed organizations, and this.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: Is what we have here.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: So we're a fifty seven page judgment where the judge
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: said there's a public interest in having the decision remade
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: on a lawful basis because of the effects of climate change,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: which you said outweighed the interests of developers. Of course,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe something like this, the Rosemanck oilfield and
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: the jack Door gasfield. Rose is a bit north of
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Shetland and Jackdaw is a bit too, the east of Aberdeen.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I would say this isn't just about the interest of
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: the developers. It's about the interests of the ordinary, ordinary
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: population of the UK and their living standards. But hey,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: that's just me. Anyway, onto Rachel Rage and all the
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: other things that she isn't going to be able to
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: get done.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: There's the Heathrow runway, right, yeah.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: I mean if she can't get a couple of oil
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: fields opened, then I do wonder. I mean, Rachel Reaves
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: was actually on Bloomberg Telly and she said that she
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: wants speeds to be in the ground by the end
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: of this parliament and I mean, the normal circumstances tell
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: me that you're going to start on an extension in
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: four years time would seem like a long time, but
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: that seems miraculously fast for you know, an extra kind
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: of runway that's already been delayed by you know, countless
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: times over various legal challenges, and you know, and obviously
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: you've already got side Can saying that he's definitely going
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: to take it to court. So I am going to
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: be interested to see how this happens.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: He's going to take it to court. He's going to
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: take it to court, and he's going to.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Use climate change legislation net zero all that stuff, and
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: he's going to have green Place and Uplift with him.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And once again, this is how low fair is used
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: in the UK to for the government.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, let's say one thing that I am
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: interested in, and you know, obviously made an awful lot
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: of criticisms of the government and the decisions that it's made,
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: but I am curious to see if someone who is
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: as presumably versed in law fare and this way of
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: doing things as Kirstarmer presumably is, has got a way
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: to counteract it. Now that he's the one that's you know,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: taking the flag from it. I am hoping that if
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: nothing else comes about, we will see a pushback against
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: this basically governance via the courts. But you're right the
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: other thing and also also getting ready gift aid, gift
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: aid needs to stop, you know.
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: All of this kind of get rid of gifted.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: Garridy, gifted. You've been saying it for the ages. You know, anything,
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: any any grant to any charity should be much more transpardoned.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, in an idea world, I would say, don't
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: give any tax payer money to charities at.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: All, or whether every single.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: Team is hinded it in fifty were saying that the
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: population nice to be for it or something like that,
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: because this is just going beyond their jok.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: No grants to charities of any kind out of taxpayer money.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: The government should do what the government should do. And
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: charities are outside the government, and I'm not sure that
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: any of them, any of them be it squirrels or greenpeace,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: and should be financed by government, by taxpayer. The government
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: should you know, for phillip democratic mandate, which is to
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: do what the population wants, not to give money to
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: organizations that are doing things that the population might not
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: necessarily want, which brings me very neatly to something that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I've been looking at this week. We haven't really finished
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: on growth. We'll come back to growth. But this is connected.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: Over half of gen Z.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: I can never remember which gens which, but let's say
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: young people, over half of gen Z wants to the
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: UK to become a dictatorship. Now, why do they want
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: the UK to become a dictatorship. There's all sorts of
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: theories out there, but I can't answer that for you.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: It's because they would like to see something, just something, anything,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: get done.
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  Speaker 3: They see the.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Electorate going out them voting again and again and again.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Build stuff, do stuff, make a smaller state, have lower taxes,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: reduce immigration, whatever it is people vote for over and over.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: These things never happen. Nothing anybody votes for ever happens.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So they think to themselves, well, if anything's ever going
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: to get done, maybe we should just have a dictator.
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: Hey, maybe the stuff that gets.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Done won't be what we want, but something will happen.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, do you think that's it.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's probably an element of them wanting a
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: better drama in the lives. Yeah, I mean, obviously we
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: all of these, said SVIs, I'd take me a massive
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: pinch of salt, because I don't I don't think the
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: more I mean generations said, this is the generation that's
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: actually older than old kids, but younger than the millennials.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: So I know, twenties.
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  Speaker 3: Oh, they're really difficult ones, aren't they.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're kind of like they are kind of yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I mean the other interesting things. I mean, you know,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: maybe maybe it's just not true, but people say about
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: young people getting more being more left wing, they're just
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: want the opposite of what they've got.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Now, well, it depends what they want to communist dictator
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: or right wing to dictator. I mean, no one said them,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: No one said, did they want a fascist or a communist?
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, they didn't get the right choices, I guess.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: So we don't know whether they're extreme left or extreme right,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: or if they yet know that extreme left and extreme
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: right are the same thing.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Maybe they don't know that yet. The young they may not.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: And also, I don't know, they've got a lot I'm
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: not sure that they I'm not sure left and right
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: make a lot of sense anymore. I think I think
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: whenever I think about all of the things that are
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: going on. You can basically split any people who are
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: still pro something resembling progress and that kind of and
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: that kind of degrow with anti growth nihilism on the
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: other side. And did those two things, And I think
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: that then makes a little bit more sense of the
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: voting for a dictatorship element, because that's quite a nihilistic
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: way look at things on nihilistic and I'm never prety
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: sure you pronounced that. So I think that that then
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: makes more sense than them thinking about I don't think
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: they're thinking, you know, a woint, a stylin or a woint.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: They're thinking, A want somebody who's going to set my
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: enemies whoever they are straight, if you know what I mean,
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: I mean they want a dictators on their said, yeah, I.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Suspect it's more it's more about or it's a lot
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: about the absolute lack of growth over the last couple
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: of decades. So you have an entire generation here that
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: they've never really experienced the growth, the innovation, the creativity, etcetera.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: That leads to sustained economic growth that you and I
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: saw when we were young.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: So we maybe have more of a growth.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Mindset, as they now say in the school's growth mindset,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: and I that growth is the default that it's possible,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: that it should be, that things should be improving.
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: And getting better all the time.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And therefore the idea that wealth should constantly be redistributed
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: isn't necessary because the pie is growing. Whereas if you
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: are perhaps generations, that your default belief, which is entirely reasonable,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: is that the pie isn't growing, and crucially that, particularly
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: with poor Rachel in charge, it isn't going to grow.
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: So what you need is a.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: More extreme level of redistribution than democracy will allow. So
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: if you don't get growth, and you don't get living
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: standards growing, again, what is it that you would expect
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: except for maybe this?
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's yeah, that's really true. And I
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: do forget that we grew up in the nineties and
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the nineties were very much everything did to keep getting
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: up particuli at your political level.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: We had great jobs, we could have you know, we
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: were educated for free, We had great jobs, we could
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: afford houses. You know, we have children, we had them
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: at a reasonable age, et cetera, et cetera. A lot
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: of the things that people stuck in a no growth
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: mindset and a no growth assumption find very hard to
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: think that they will ever have, So I totally understand this,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: But I've gone off topic again. This is not that
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: kind of podcast. So let's I think we've talked quite
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: a lot in the past on this podcast about what
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Rachel Reeves could do to allow growth rather than to
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: pretend that she can create growth. So I would suggest
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: anyone who wants to hear a little more about that
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: goes back to the podcast that we did with Simon French,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: which was excellent on all that, the main thing being that.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: If Rachel really believes that growth.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Is a fight, she's fighting the wrong thing. You know,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: she doesn't need to fight. She needs to get out
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: of the way. Less fighting, less fighting, and less of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: course you are fighting the course, which he's going to
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: be doing for a while. Onto something, John, Onto something
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: that you've written about a lot this week and which
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: we already released what we don't call an emergency podcast
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: but we call an early podcast on Tuesday. AI Deep
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Seek and the effect on the US technology sector. Are
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: you in the camp that says deep Seek It's great.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Everything just goes better for US tech as a result
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: of Deep Seek, and we should all buy more and
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: more in video or are you in the camp that says, oh, look,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: China one, this stuff can be done cheaply and easily
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: with low energy. Therefore, no one wants to own a
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: video chips anymore. It's all over for them, and it's
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: all over everyone who's spent billions and billions and billions
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: on building or attempting to build an AI infrastructure that
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like it's already needed. Oh, and could buy
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: nuclear energy at the same time. Oh, you could be
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: somewhere in the middle. I guess, But those are the
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: two camps, right.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Don't think I mean I that camp, and I think
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: the only count I'm actually in is more that this
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: has remainded people, That unexpected stuff throws spinals in the
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: walks all the team and the one the mental problem
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: here has been the AI bubble. I feel like, let's
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: call it the AI bubble has been massively overinflated. So
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: stocks are very overvalued compared to anything but the most
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: perfect event unfolding. And the one thing that Deepseek shows
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: is that you don't know the future paths. You can't
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: assume that it's going to be perfect, and you can't
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: assume that in the video is going to be the
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: only contender for the rest of eternity, and therefore probably
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: there should be a little more room for uncertainty in
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: the price, which means that the current price, or the
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: price you know, a couple of days ago, was probably
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: not the right price. And I think that's about the
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: only useful thing that especially, I mean anno specialist like me,
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: but even you know, the specialists unfortunate. If you're a
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: non specialist, you don't know the details we are talking about.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: But if you're a specialist, you're two way far too
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: into the details to be able to give a decent
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: big picture look. So I think that, yeah, I mean,
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I think that's it. I think all we knew before,
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: for almost sure, was that these thoughts were overvalued. And
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: this is a remainder why they were overvalues, because they
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: were placing and perfection rather than anything else.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: My takes would be that one exactly never pay for
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: perfect because you're never going to get perfect. And you know,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: the dynamic of of all of history is that some
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: technology that looks expensive and difficult is always disrupted by
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: someone who can do it at a fraction of the cost,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: where a fraction of the effort happens every single time.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: That would be my first takeaway. The second one would
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: be the weirdness of I don't know when when you
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: and I were reading all the stuff about Davos, where
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: we weren't by the way, you know, a lot of
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: the talk at Davos was about deep seek, right, this
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: was new information. It had been out there before, but
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: it only hit the stock market on Monday. That was
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: really interesting because everyone's at worst talking about how there
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: you know, the market gets hold of information before anybody
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: else and it's a perfect waging machine.
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: E cetera, et cetera.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: But actually it was a long time in market terms
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: for the information about deep seek and what it could
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: do and how it had been trained to do it
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: to move from DeVos chatter to the market. Information doesn't
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: matter until suddenly it really mattered. That's also I thought
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: very interesting. Yeah, that from the non expert point of view,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: cheap AI might not be good for big tech, and
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: might not be good for anyone who's just promised to
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: check one hundred billion into Donald Trump's AI infrastructure ideas.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Maybe not good for that, but really good surely for
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: productivity across the board, which brings us back to poor
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Rachel Reeves and her desperation to create growth. But she
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: might not necessarily have to do that. But she can't
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: do that, but she might be able to step back
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: and just say, well, hang on, if cheap AI is
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: out there and it's going to make its way round
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: the economy without her having to do anything, that could
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: be conceivably a huge cheap productivity boat boost will give
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: us growth anyway, not just here but in the US
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: of course as well. And then we have the classic
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: situation where you have a bubble, massive capex bubble. You
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: have the creation of the technology of some kind or another.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: You have a product productivity boom, but we don't actually
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: see any profitability to the big companies. You may have
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: developed the technology in the first place for a good decade,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: like well, like the Internet, like railways, all.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: This kind of thing.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: I'm amusing myself at the moment looking at mini bubbles,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: and you know, the AI bubble fits perfectly into the
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: dynamic of a mini bubble right above a sector bubble
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: inside a market.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean's this it's one of those. It's
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: like a productive bubble. So like the entern they ultimately
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: boys our productive bubble and the minute boss that I
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: actually didn't cause that much damage. It's only when you've
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: get stuff like properly that you've got a real problem.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: But you know, I mean, the the I thing I
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: do find fascinating then you know, I mean, obviously if
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: they've found the way they do chat GP, but like
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: you know, one hundredfold cheaper, it's then that's that's great.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: That's like, you know, that's fantastic. It's very hard to
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: say that's a bad thing. My going back to Rachel
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Reeves and growth. The one issue that I have and
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: just to be clear, I'm not an AI skeptic. I
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: can see that it's useful for stuff, but the sorts
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: of things that it would be really useful for, like
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: the kind of you know, AI and medicine, AI and law.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: I can see that sort of stuff being kind of
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: held up by you know, the guilds, if you like,
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: in those areas the human element rather than the technological element.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: And I think that is again that's sort of is
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit like what we've been talking about earlier.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: We you know, the kind of battle against the courts
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: to actually get anything done. It's not that we can't
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: do any of this stuff. Is that if you like,
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: the kind of social structures around them are stopping is
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: you know, it's highly qualified lawyers and highly qualified doctors
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: aren't going to want to introduce you know, it can
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: have EI and the workflow for the same reason the
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: printer was back when the print and unions were around.
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: Didn't want desktop publishing software coming in and getting over
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: that is going to be difficult. I think maybe I'm wrong, Yeah, just.
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: The misery guts.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: I'm much more optimistic about it.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: It's true.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: I think ai AI is one of those things that
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: can kind of, you know, creep creep through the system
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: without being noticed in quite that way.
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: But we will see.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: As you say, neither neither of us are proper experts
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: here anyway that I want to go back if you
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: don't mind. Two mini bubbles sector bubbles inside markets, okay,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: And obviously we have a we've collected a lot over
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the years, the Great Diving Bell bubble and you know
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: that kind of thing. I've got a new one I've
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: been looking at, which was the listed nursing home company bubble,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: the Fevered fifty they were called. That was a bubble
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: in the late sixties and early seventies. Wow, you know,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: obviously there was a lot of all sorts of regulatory change.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: That meant that people started manically building nursing homes and
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: they would list them before they'd finished the construction, all
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: that kind of thing. There were only a couple listed
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: in nineteen sixty six. By nineteen seventy there were ninety,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: and then suddenly the bottom fell out completely in nineteen
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: seventy one. There was a big fraud case. Of course,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: there's always a big fraud case, and that meant that
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: everyone started going, whoa, whoa, whoa. We we can't return
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: of twenty percent a year and you've got that much done.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: You haven't even built the nursing home yet. Over the
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: collapse anyway, talking to someone about this the other day,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: and he said to me, had I ever heard of
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: the great cryonics bubble crygenics bubble?
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Come?
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I cannot find anything about this on the
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: internet anywhere, not even with the little use of AI.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: So this is a call out to our listeners. Does
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: anybody know anything about the cryonics bubble or the cryogenics bubble,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: depending on what you call it, which I understand happened
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: in the early eighties, when there was a great boom
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: in the technology of freezing people's heads or freezing people's
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: bodies to wake them up. Later on various scandals where
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: bodies turned out not we've been frozen after all, people
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: turning the electricity off at night, this kind of thing,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: and then this mini bubble crash. But I can find
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: nothing about it. Anybody knows anything about this bubble, or
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: indeed has another favorite mini bubble they'd like to tell
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: us about.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: Please do get in touch. Was that in the US?
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's really interesting. I have no idea.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: Yes, it's really interesting. But I have asked.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I have asked our two favorite financial historians. I've asked
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Russell Napier and I've asked Eddie Chancellor. I've asked both
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: of them if they know of the freezing people's body's bubble.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: And as I thought, what we are scooped, I mean,
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: that would be tough to end up. We could have
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: some of these heads in the Library of mistakes. That
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: would be great.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: That It's not where I was expecting the conversation to go.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: But yes, we could indeed have a defrosted body in
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: the Library of mistakes. I mean, the problem John of
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: course is you know, and the reason why all these
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: companies go wrong is because it's really really expensive to
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: keep bodies frozen at an appropriate level so that you
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: can bring them back.
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: To life later.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: It's very expensive, very high fixed costs things.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, you're not get brilliant cash flows from that
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: business side.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Well, each each body needs a permanent portfolio with it, right,
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: So every time you take your body, it's like giving
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: a house to the National Trust in the old days, right,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: you hand it over it and you have to give
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: a portfolio for its upkeep at the same time.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: Ah, you know what it would be like a different
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: benefit patient scheme exactly.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: So if you were to be a successful cryonics company,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: which clearly none of them were, you would also have
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: to be a very expert manager of a permanent portfolio.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: And I'm guessing that these two skills don't normally go together.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: I think we need to end this podcast.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: No, I was just saying, there's an opportunity here. Well,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: you know, active managers another ESG. That's kind of going away,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: I know, but this is your chance, you know, or
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: can like deep freeze deep frees of clients the cleogenic portfolio.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: So there's something going on here.
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: I think we'll come back to this one. We'll come
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: back to this one. Let's lets see if we can
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: find a couple of.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Fund managers who would tell us how they would run
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a permanent portfolio designed to finance the cost of keeping
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: the original client's body frozen in. Definitely anyone who'd like
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: to be on that part. Also do get in touch.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to this week's Marrin Talks Money debrief.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: If you like our show, rate review, and subscribe wherever
• 23:09
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• 23:11
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• 23:14
  Speaker 1: John Underscore Stepic. This episode was produced by Summersidi and
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Moses and Brendan Francis Newnham is our executive producer. Question
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: and comments on this show and I think there might
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: be a lot and all our shows always welcome. Our
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: show email is Merrin Money at Bloomberg dot net.