Latest / Financial Survival Network / The Interest Rate Death Spiral Is Here - Exposing the Crisis w/John Rubino #6283

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The Interest Rate Death Spiral Is Here - Exposing the Crisis w/John Rubino #6283 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
Speaker 1: Frankly, I'm just loving watching this from the theater of
0:03
Speaker 1: having an alpha male just kind of stomp around the
0:07
Speaker 1: world doing whatever he feels like, and everybody else just
0:10
Speaker 1: get in line. Is It's hilarious. You know, I'm really
0:13
Speaker 1: having fun watching Trump because he is totally in his element.
0:16
Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where
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0:44
Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial
0:47
Speaker 3: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Leutz where with John Rabino.
0:52
Speaker 3: It's been a while, John, Like, I don't even know
0:56
Speaker 3: where to pick up with you that so much has
0:58
Speaker 3: happened in a few short weeks since we last spoke.
1:04
Speaker 3: You know, it's just one of those things. So we
1:09
Speaker 3: got to start someplace. I guess interest rates, because everything
1:13
Speaker 3: goes from interest rates, right hey, Cary.
1:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot happening. We're kind of in the
1:17
Speaker 1: middle of a revolution right now. On several different levels,
1:20
Speaker 1: financial and political, geopolitical, and the indust rate thing is
1:26
Speaker 1: normally that's kind of a dry topic, but at the
1:30
Speaker 1: extremes of financial cycles, interest rates become really important. And
1:37
Speaker 1: what might be happening now is that, well, we had
1:41
Speaker 1: interest rates spike because we had inflation in twenty twenty two,
1:46
Speaker 1: and now higher interest rates are draining a lot of
1:50
Speaker 1: indebted entities, like governments went from having zero interest rates
1:55
Speaker 1: on their bonds in a lot of cases two three, four,
1:58
Speaker 1: five percent. Now that they've got to pay that spiking
2:01
Speaker 1: interest expense is spiking deficits, which means the debt goes
2:07
Speaker 1: up year after year at an accelerating rate, and so
2:09
Speaker 1: you enter kind of a death spiral. And the US,
2:14
Speaker 1: big chunks of Europe and Japan have all kind of
2:17
Speaker 1: entered that period now where the central banks are kind
2:20
Speaker 1: of either thinking about cutting interest rates or trying to
2:23
Speaker 1: cut interest rates, but it's not working. The bond markets
2:27
Speaker 1: are demanding higher and higher interest rates from governments that
2:31
Speaker 1: are falling more and more deeply into debt. And if
2:35
Speaker 1: that turns out to be the case, in other words,
2:37
Speaker 1: if governments lose control of interest rates, then we are
2:41
Speaker 1: in a death spiral. You know, that's the end of
2:43
Speaker 1: this financial system because interest rates will keep going up
2:47
Speaker 1: and that'll scare bond investors even more, and in rates
2:49
Speaker 1: will go up even further, and we won't have any
2:52
Speaker 1: tools for stopping that. So let's, you know, pay attention to,
2:56
Speaker 1: for instance, Japan's thirty and forty year bonds. Who would
3:01
Speaker 1: lend money to a government for forty years or fifty years?
3:04
Speaker 1: That's crazy, but they do that, and the interest rates
3:08
Speaker 1: on those bonds are going straight up. They're just spiking.
3:12
Speaker 1: And in the US, what is it our thirty year
3:15
Speaker 1: that's our longest term bond, and that's above five percent now,
3:19
Speaker 1: and five percent is a deadly interest rate for a
3:23
Speaker 1: lot of sectors of the economy. So big deal, Let's
3:26
Speaker 1: pay attention and see where it goes. But it's potentially
3:29
Speaker 1: a black Swan event.
3:31
Speaker 3: Yeah. We also had a recent bond rating cut in
3:35
Speaker 3: the US.
3:36
Speaker 1: Yeah that in normal times wouldn't make any difference because
3:42
Speaker 1: Fitch and Standard and Ports have already cut the US
3:46
Speaker 1: credit rating from perfect to one notch below perfect, and
3:52
Speaker 1: now Moodies came along did the same thing, which since
3:55
Speaker 1: the other two rating agencies had already done that shouldn't
3:58
Speaker 1: have been an earthquake. But when things start to turn,
4:01
Speaker 1: you know, when the psychology of the market goes from
4:05
Speaker 1: lass to anxious, then things that wouldn't have been a
4:10
Speaker 1: big deal in the past become a big deal. And
4:12
Speaker 1: that might be the case with this. But you know,
4:16
Speaker 1: the real question is isn't why are they cutting the
4:19
Speaker 1: credit rating for the US? It's why was the US
4:22
Speaker 1: a triple A credit when the government has debt equal
4:26
Speaker 1: to one hundred and twenty five percent of GDP and
4:28
Speaker 1: that just scratches the surface of its actual indebtedness. You know,
4:32
Speaker 1: we're a banana republic mathematically right now, So you wouldn't
4:37
Speaker 1: expect the US to have a perfect credit rating, and
4:41
Speaker 1: the markets are starting to recognize that now. So it
4:44
Speaker 1: could be that the latest credit rating cut for the
4:47
Speaker 1: US is just the beginning of a long series that
4:51
Speaker 1: take us down to our intrinsic credit rating, which would
4:56
Speaker 1: be somewhere in the BS I think, you know, not
4:59
Speaker 1: ceas yet, but somewhere in the BEES.
5:03
Speaker 3: So you know, interesting thing about credit ratings I realize,
5:07
Speaker 3: other than when I lived in New York City, every
5:10
Speaker 3: place I ever lived in have triple A bond rating
5:14
Speaker 3: and triple A credit rating, So there's definitely something to it.
5:20
Speaker 3: Bond ratings. They're not important, right until they are important,
5:25
Speaker 3: one of those things, right.
5:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, I mean it facilitates borrowing very cheaply, which
5:32
Speaker 1: is kind of kind of the problem as well as
5:37
Speaker 1: the benefit, because if you're incentive to borrow a lot
5:41
Speaker 1: of money because money is so cheap, like I feel
5:43
Speaker 1: that way, you know, back when mortgages were like two
5:45
Speaker 1: and a half percent, I really thought about just going
5:48
Speaker 1: out and buying a house because I felt almost morally
5:51
Speaker 1: obligated to take that cheap money that they were offering.
5:53
Speaker 1: But it's the same thing for governments. I mean, if
5:56
Speaker 1: you let them borrow very cheaply, then there's this whole
6:00
Speaker 1: of things they can do to steal elections and otherwise,
6:06
Speaker 1: you know, spend money on things that matter to them,
6:08
Speaker 1: and so they'll go out and do it, and then
6:10
Speaker 1: that leads them over and debted and near bankruptcy. New
6:13
Speaker 1: York City has been near bankruptcy a couple of times.
6:16
Speaker 1: And yeah, yeah, and so Florida, where you are now,
6:23
Speaker 1: is phenomenally well run and in good shape financially, but
6:28
Speaker 1: that won't last if people in Florida are overconfident and
6:33
Speaker 1: start borrowing a lot of money. There's a saying attached
6:38
Speaker 1: to this, something like low interest rates are the cause
6:42
Speaker 1: of high interest rates or something like that. In other words,
6:45
Speaker 1: if you borrow a lot of money, your financial viability
6:49
Speaker 1: deteriorates and then your interest rate goes way up, and
6:52
Speaker 1: it was the result really of those low interest rates
6:54
Speaker 1: to begin with. So we're there a lot of big
6:58
Speaker 1: entities out there, sovereign governments, sovereign bond markets are looking
7:05
Speaker 1: like they're on the verge of a crisis. So we
7:09
Speaker 1: got to see how that plays out. And we also
7:11
Speaker 1: have to think about how how you invest for something
7:14
Speaker 1: like that, because spiking interest rates are, for instance, not
7:18
Speaker 1: good for gold and silver because they compete with bonds,
7:23
Speaker 1: and if bonds yield seven percent and gold yields nothing,
7:27
Speaker 1: then it's tough competition. But if there's a bond crisis
7:32
Speaker 1: that leads central banks to really aggressively ease somehow, then
7:37
Speaker 1: that's good for gold and silver because all that extra
7:39
Speaker 1: money sloshing around has to go somewhere, and it partially
7:42
Speaker 1: goes into precious metals. So I don't know from a
7:45
Speaker 1: gold bugs perspective what I think about what's happening right now,
7:48
Speaker 1: whether it's good news, whether it's a sign to go
7:52
Speaker 1: out and buy gold and silver, or whether it's a
7:54
Speaker 1: sign to pull back and wait for the second stage
7:57
Speaker 1: of the process. So we're gonna have to see it,
7:59
Speaker 1: and I don't know what to do exactly right.
8:01
Speaker 3: Now, all right, So we have to update an old
8:04
Speaker 3: financial truism here which says the best cure for for
8:10
Speaker 3: high price the best cure juice. Now my age is
8:15
Speaker 3: kicking in here, but the best the best thing for
8:21
Speaker 3: high prices is to bring low prices. You know, I
8:27
Speaker 3: know what.
8:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know that's saying exactly I tried to do
8:29
Speaker 1: a version of it just now. But it's a it's
8:31
Speaker 1: a hard one because as you as you start saying it,
8:35
Speaker 1: you realize you might not have it exactly right. And
8:38
Speaker 1: when you finish what you think you're going to say,
8:40
Speaker 1: it's not the right thing. And it's one of those sayings.
8:42
Speaker 3: So yeah, best cure for low prices is low prices.
8:46
Speaker 3: The best cure for low rates is low rates because
8:50
Speaker 3: you get so much act there into the system and
8:53
Speaker 3: then and then the rates go up because the defaults
8:56
Speaker 3: go up, the risk gets higher, and the nest cure
8:59
Speaker 3: for high rates is high.
9:00
Speaker 1: Rates, right, Yeah, yes, the higher the better eventually. Yeah,
9:06
Speaker 1: but it's it's that the valley you might have to
9:09
Speaker 1: go through on the way to gold Bug Paradise. You know,
9:14
Speaker 1: I'm just not sure because you know, stocks are historically overvalued.
9:21
Speaker 1: Real estate is crazy overvalued in a lot of markets.
9:25
Speaker 1: You know, house prices are just forty percent higher than
9:28
Speaker 1: they should be based on people's incomes. So if you
9:31
Speaker 1: raise interest rates, you crash a lot of overvalued assets.
9:36
Speaker 1: And the question is what's the number, you know, what's
9:39
Speaker 1: the ten year treasury yield that crashes the stock market?
9:44
Speaker 1: And we don't really know, but I suspect five percent
9:47
Speaker 1: would have a lot of people speculating about it. So
9:51
Speaker 1: we're not far from that. We we could have one
9:53
Speaker 1: bad week in the bond market and we're at five
9:55
Speaker 1: percent for the ten year treasury. So so this is
9:58
Speaker 1: possibly one of the a short term thing. Normally we
10:01
Speaker 1: talk about long term trends, Harry, you know, but this
10:04
Speaker 1: might be a next week kind of thing.
10:07
Speaker 3: It could happen any moment here. Let's face it, and
10:10
Speaker 3: let's tie that in with Trump. Uh, we've had I
10:14
Speaker 3: guess we're jeez, we're at one hundred what is that
10:20
Speaker 3: for one hundred and twenty days since he was inaugurated,
10:24
Speaker 3: almost to the day. I don't know if things have
10:27
Speaker 3: gotten better or worse, but they sure as heck have
10:29
Speaker 3: gotten a lot more interesting, haven't they.
10:31
Speaker 1: John Frankly, I'm just loving watching this from the theater
10:35
Speaker 1: of having an alpha male just kind of stomp around
10:40
Speaker 1: the world doing whatever he feels like and everybody else
10:43
Speaker 1: just get in line. Is It's hilarious? You know, I'm
10:45
Speaker 1: really having fun watching Trump because he is totally in
10:48
Speaker 1: his element. You saw the Middle East trip just.
10:51
Speaker 3: Later here, oh man reba art bit. They rolled up
10:54
Speaker 3: the camels, the horse emials.
10:56
Speaker 1: That's right, they had a camel, paid for it.
10:59
Speaker 3: Why didn't they put it in one of those carriers
11:02
Speaker 3: like an emperor and just carry him across.
11:05
Speaker 1: You know, he's probably saving that for some other visit
11:09
Speaker 1: to another country, but it's it's probably something that might happen.
11:12
Speaker 1: And they gave him a four hundred million dollar yet
11:17
Speaker 1: for yeah, and and and and so he gets back
11:22
Speaker 1: here and the press is like, well, isn't that corrupt
11:24
Speaker 1: that you're accepting these giant presents from people and He's like,
11:28
Speaker 1: they offered it to me. What am I supposed to
11:30
Speaker 1: say except thank you?
11:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an insult, right insult to them.
11:34
Speaker 1: And so he and he and he totally skates.
11:37
Speaker 3: You know.
11:37
Speaker 1: The press is like, well, you know, there's nothing we
11:40
Speaker 1: could do about it, So okay, let's move on to
11:41
Speaker 1: the next thing. Are you really gonna run again in
11:44
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight, you know? But yeah, it's fun to watch.
11:48
Speaker 1: He's accomplishing a lot in these visits. He's he's because
11:52
Speaker 1: everybody he visits is obligated to invest in the United
11:56
Speaker 1: States in some way. That's sort of the price of admission.
11:58
Speaker 1: They have to, yeah, send three hundred billion dollars or
12:03
Speaker 1: a new car factory or something like that back to
12:06
Speaker 1: the US. And that's good, that's very that's very good
12:09
Speaker 1: for us here. So so yeah, he's he's accomplishing a
12:13
Speaker 1: lot of stuff. He's closed down the border. He's uh,
12:15
Speaker 1: he's ripping DEI out of big institutions by the roots.
12:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, so he will one other thing, Uh, you know,
12:25
Speaker 3: we're talking about the border and all that. The deficit
12:29
Speaker 3: has actually decreased, you know, as a result of more
12:33
Speaker 3: tariff revenue coming in and less theft, because why don't
12:38
Speaker 3: they just say Doge is there to get rid of theft,
12:42
Speaker 3: because it's theft. I mean, why do we have to
12:45
Speaker 3: call it fraud abuse, whatever, it's theft? Call it for
12:49
Speaker 3: what it is. I mean, I'm a grand scale.
12:52
Speaker 1: DOGE found out that a big chunk of the political
12:57
Speaker 1: class is participating in a gigantic money laundering scheme now
13:00
Speaker 1: involving NGOs and and quasi governmental agencies that aren't really
13:09
Speaker 1: part of the government, but they kind of are at
13:10
Speaker 1: the same time, and they're they're providing all these sinecures
13:13
Speaker 1: for out of work political class people, swamp creatures, you know,
13:18
Speaker 1: and they're all making huge amounts of money because the
13:21
Speaker 1: initial capital comes from the government, comes from taxpayers, and
13:24
Speaker 1: then it just gets spread out. You know, the Clinton Foundation,
13:28
Speaker 1: for instance, it was either the Clinton Foundation or USAID
13:33
Speaker 1: gave Chelsea Clinton something like thirty million dollars. Yeah, how
13:37
Speaker 1: could that happen?
13:38
Speaker 3: You know, and and for her wedding, right, yeah, yes, yeah.
13:42
Speaker 1: And so that you know, take that and then multiply
13:44
Speaker 1: it by thousand, and you get the graft that is
13:48
Speaker 1: now going on out there. So if DOGE doesn't do
13:52
Speaker 1: anything else, never cuts any spending at actual departments or anything.
13:55
Speaker 1: The fact that they identified this criminal activity, this wandering
14:00
Speaker 1: that's going on, is very good, you know. And if
14:04
Speaker 1: if we start purp walking some of these people into courthouses,
14:07
Speaker 1: that's gonna helpait phenomenal.
14:09
Speaker 3: Yeah.
14:10
Speaker 1: But at the same time, it looks like the deep
14:13
Speaker 1: state has gotten to a lot of Trump's people, So
14:15
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to see. So did you see Dan
14:18
Speaker 1: Bongino and Cash Ptel speaking together. They were interviewed together
14:25
Speaker 1: just in the.
14:25
Speaker 3: Last get that already, right?
14:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, they said Epstein killed himself, and there was something else.
14:33
Speaker 1: There was another thing that was that they all along
14:36
Speaker 1: have been saying something different and now they started saying
14:40
Speaker 1: the thing that the deep state wants them to say.
14:42
Speaker 1: So the question is who got to them and how?
14:46
Speaker 1: And yeah, well, I mean which of their children did
14:50
Speaker 1: they see Ia threatened to till or something like that. Oh,
14:53
Speaker 1: they will totally do that, you know, because if if
14:57
Speaker 1: you're in government and your kid gets into a car wreck,
15:01
Speaker 1: there's no way to trace that back to the CIA
15:03
Speaker 1: or or any number of other horrible things happening to him.
15:06
Speaker 1: So I mean they could just what is it, Kilberden.
15:09
Speaker 3: The Tesla is it driving right into a into an embankment.
15:14
Speaker 1: And you know, the CIA has the capability of hacking
15:18
Speaker 1: into self driving cars. I'm taking over right that that
15:23
Speaker 1: capability exists out there somewhere and somebody bad has it.
15:28
Speaker 1: So we're just seeing the beginning of that as a
15:32
Speaker 1: control threat. So so anyhow, Yeah, there's just so much
15:36
Speaker 1: going on right now.
15:37
Speaker 3: Or what Tavy Let's say, maybe they didn't really mean
15:40
Speaker 3: it and they're just playing the script until they turn
15:44
Speaker 3: the script on the players could be.
15:47
Speaker 1: Here's hoping, you know, because we still got We've got
15:50
Speaker 1: the Epstein files out there. We've got all kinds of
15:52
Speaker 1: things that Kennedy was supposed to do as far as
15:56
Speaker 1: vaccines go, and food additives and stuff like that, and
16:01
Speaker 1: he had to compromise a lot of his goals in
16:04
Speaker 1: order to get through the Senate, you know, to be
16:08
Speaker 1: actually approved by the Senate. So we don't know how
16:11
Speaker 1: much is just promises he had to make if he
16:14
Speaker 1: doesn't do the things he says he's going to do,
16:15
Speaker 1: so we'll see. I mean, so much still has to happen,
16:19
Speaker 1: but so much has happened. So from a political theater standpoint,
16:24
Speaker 1: this is hilarious. From a good governance standpoint, there are
16:28
Speaker 1: positive things to point to. So I'd give Trump his
16:33
Speaker 1: first hundred days, one hundred and twenty days. And as
16:36
Speaker 1: you know, because there's chaos, a lot of bad things
16:38
Speaker 1: are happening, but he's accomplishing some really big things.
16:43
Speaker 3: Well.
16:43
Speaker 1: The biggest, of course, is that if he keeps war
16:47
Speaker 1: from breaking out in Ukraine or the Middle East, that
16:52
Speaker 1: alone is that alone makes himigrant president. You know, if
16:55
Speaker 1: he gets us through the next few years without a
16:57
Speaker 1: nuclear war with Russia, China or Iran, big deal. And
17:01
Speaker 1: he seems to be trying that, although it looks like
17:04
Speaker 1: Israel is trying to get a green light to bomb
17:08
Speaker 1: Iran's nuclear plants, and that would be a black swan.
17:11
Speaker 1: If something like that happens, I would be bad.
17:14
Speaker 3: But yes, but let's talk about China, because so Trump
17:19
Speaker 3: is pushing for a resolution to the Ukraine Russia war.
17:23
Speaker 3: When push comes to show, Zelenski will have to toe
17:26
Speaker 3: the line or we'll do what we did in Vietnam.
17:30
Speaker 3: Bao Dao remember him. It just yes, we.
17:34
Speaker 1: Assassinated the head of South Vietnam because we didn't like him, That's.
17:39
Speaker 3: Right, And that was a bill from there.
17:41
Speaker 1: That was actually John Kennedy, who was generally seen as
17:46
Speaker 1: a pro peace president. You know, that's what got him killed.
17:48
Speaker 1: That he didn't want to fight all the wars that
17:51
Speaker 1: the deep state wanted to.
17:52
Speaker 3: Play it, so certainly one of the reasons.
17:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, but so even he is capable of
17:57
Speaker 1: doing something like that. So you know, if Kennedy's capable
17:59
Speaker 1: of assassinating somebody, somebody that they don't like, Trump is
18:03
Speaker 1: truly that.
18:05
Speaker 3: These guys are like this Gordon Coke on the train, John,
18:09
Speaker 3: that's so great. Yeah, the bag is there, and then
18:13
Speaker 3: Macron gently hides it and the other guy hides the spoon,
18:17
Speaker 3: and it's like, no wonder, no wonder. If the world's
18:21
Speaker 3: such a mess, everybody's high, you know.
18:23
Speaker 1: And and it's not a surprise at all. These guys,
18:25
Speaker 1: the people running Europe are just flat out degenerates, with
18:28
Speaker 1: the exception of the lady in Italy. I like her.
18:31
Speaker 1: Yeah she's a guy in Hungary too, Oh Victor Orburn Sorry,
18:35
Speaker 1: but see he's not really running Europe. He's he's standing
18:39
Speaker 1: on the sideline saying Nope, we're not going to do that. Nope,
18:42
Speaker 1: we're not going to do that. And they're they're telling
18:44
Speaker 1: the world destroy you if you don't do that, and
18:46
Speaker 1: so I you know, I hope he survives and becomes
18:50
Speaker 1: the template for European leaders with a little bit less authoritarianism.
18:55
Speaker 1: But but there guy's running the big countries, you know,
19:00
Speaker 1: and the UK and France. It's not a surprise at
19:05
Speaker 1: all to see them hanging out doing coke on the
19:08
Speaker 1: train while they're trying to supposedly keep us from out
19:13
Speaker 1: of World War three. You know, they're coke is probably
19:16
Speaker 1: actually good if you're a warmonger, right, because that would
19:19
Speaker 1: that would fire you up to ship those long range
19:23
Speaker 1: missiles to Ukraine.
19:24
Speaker 3: What the hell? Yeah, and so that's psychosis.
19:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So so it's not a surprise given how
19:32
Speaker 1: they are most times. You know, these guys basically actively
19:35
Speaker 1: want to start World War three. Oh yeah, probably because
19:39
Speaker 1: they want to distract their populace from the mistakes they've
19:42
Speaker 1: made in running the country. I mean, you can't have
19:44
Speaker 1: open borders for a decade and then get reelected. You
19:49
Speaker 1: just can't do that if you're honest. So you have
19:52
Speaker 1: to steal the election post ten years of open borders,
19:57
Speaker 1: and you do that in a couple of ways. You
19:59
Speaker 1: make your political opponents illegal, which they've done in France,
20:02
Speaker 1: they're trying to do in Germany about Romania.
20:05
Speaker 3: Romania, they did that to the guy then.
20:07
Speaker 1: They yeah, but then they let a populist run. He
20:12
Speaker 1: looked like he was going to win, and then he lost,
20:14
Speaker 1: So they probably just stole that election.
20:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, well they removed him from the ballot, I thought,
20:19
Speaker 3: or declared No, they declared the election invalid.
20:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, but then he won and then they yeah, they
20:28
Speaker 1: had a new election. They let an ally of the
20:32
Speaker 1: guy that they banned run as a populist, as a
20:36
Speaker 1: you know, a maga Republican kind of guy, and they
20:42
Speaker 1: let the election happen. And that guy was winning big
20:46
Speaker 1: going into election day, and then he lost by a
20:49
Speaker 1: pretty sizable margin when the actual votes were counted. So
20:53
Speaker 1: that sounds an awful lot like twenty twenty in the US.
20:58
Speaker 3: You know, this is a template around the world, Bolsonaro.
21:03
Speaker 3: Anyone you don't like who appears to be a populist
21:07
Speaker 3: who might actually want the best for his country immediately
21:12
Speaker 3: gets or not immediately, but over he's removed by with
21:18
Speaker 3: extreme prejudice or law fair in their corrupt court system.
21:23
Speaker 3: You know, the US is beginning. The court system is
21:26
Speaker 3: beginning to look a lot like every other country's. One
21:29
Speaker 3: thing I wanted to go over though, So you know
21:32
Speaker 3: that if China withdrew its backing from Russia, the war
21:37
Speaker 3: would be over in three months because they wouldn't be
21:40
Speaker 3: able to sell their oil and it would be over
21:43
Speaker 3: for Russia. They would have to seriously think about ending
21:48
Speaker 3: the whole ploy. I think that's what's happening behind the
21:52
Speaker 3: scenes with the China US trade negotiations, because if the
21:57
Speaker 3: US embargoes all Chinese te whether it's through a tariff
22:01
Speaker 3: or they just say no more, the US will find
22:05
Speaker 3: a way to find get most of the other stuff.
22:08
Speaker 3: You know, the rare earths are hard because not because
22:11
Speaker 3: they're rare, but because the production. We've allowed China to
22:15
Speaker 3: monopolize it. But that can be resolved. They probably have
22:18
Speaker 3: a stockpile of all that stuff, all the unobtainium right
22:22
Speaker 3: that we don't even know about. So the question is
22:26
Speaker 3: those negotiations. China is behind the eight ball, their economies imploding,
22:31
Speaker 3: both the economy and their infrastructure from all the tofu
22:35
Speaker 3: drag construction, and we see signs that they're closing down
22:39
Speaker 3: the fentanyl labs and the precursor companies they're doing. It
22:44
Speaker 3: was a deal really made, and effectively we gave China
22:48
Speaker 3: ninety days to prove that they're going to live by it.
22:51
Speaker 1: Well, no doubt the US is trying to separate China
22:56
Speaker 1: and Russia because that's a scary alliance. The US nightmare alliance,
23:01
Speaker 1: of course is Germany, Russia and China. And you know,
23:04
Speaker 1: we were kind of heading in that direction before we
23:06
Speaker 1: blew up the nord Stream tube pipeline. But yeah, I'm
23:13
Speaker 1: not sure what you would have to give China and
23:16
Speaker 1: Russia though, to to you know, break the diplomatic bonds
23:23
Speaker 1: that they've created, because they're doing a lot of financial,
23:25
Speaker 1: diplomatic and trade stuff together and that's really good for them.
23:30
Speaker 1: And how far will they trust the US, Like if
23:33
Speaker 1: they blow each other off and and you know kind
23:38
Speaker 1: of sort of alie with the US, how long can
23:42
Speaker 1: they trust us to keep that promise? So I don't know.
23:45
Speaker 1: I think the US would have to offer those guys
23:47
Speaker 1: a lot to make it both while because we're not trustworthy.
23:51
Speaker 3: You have to understand that China and Russia really aren't
23:54
Speaker 3: natural allies. They flowed a war against each other China
24:00
Speaker 3: would ideally like to colonize Siberia to Siberia is a
24:05
Speaker 3: land without people, and China is a people without land,
24:10
Speaker 3: and there's resources there. All this and there's a lot
24:14
Speaker 3: of historic because China views Siberia as one of their
24:19
Speaker 3: lost provinces from some ancient thing when probably a couple
24:24
Speaker 3: of guys went there and made you know, Chinese food,
24:29
Speaker 3: and they claimed it for their own. But they're not
24:32
Speaker 3: really natural allies. We pushed them together, so separating them.
24:37
Speaker 3: If we bring Russia back into swift, bring it back
24:41
Speaker 3: into the world you know of you know, the World
24:46
Speaker 3: Community of Nations, I think that's enough to pull them apart.
24:50
Speaker 3: Agreeing not to put NATO in Ukraine and allowing them
24:55
Speaker 3: to keep what they have and basically removing Zelenski one
25:00
Speaker 3: means or another. Russia would be happy because they really
25:04
Speaker 3: don't like China. There's no love between these two countries
25:08
Speaker 3: since since when it was in the sixties when they
25:11
Speaker 3: had their break because they didn't like each other's form
25:15
Speaker 3: of communism. So it's going to be really interesting to
25:18
Speaker 3: see if my theory's correct. I think it is, because
25:23
Speaker 3: I think there was a lot more that took place
25:25
Speaker 3: in those negotiations in Switzerland between the US and China,
25:29
Speaker 3: than they're talking about the rampant ip theft. And you
25:34
Speaker 3: haven't heard China making many threats against Taiwan lately either,
25:38
Speaker 3: the last one with some military maneuver around the island
25:42
Speaker 3: and planes buzzing it like I think it's closed two
25:46
Speaker 3: months ago. That was the last thing you heard about
25:48
Speaker 3: in the papers. But you have seen a lot if
25:50
Speaker 3: you watch those YouTube channels of basically China's industrial economy
25:56
Speaker 3: shutting down literally factories, unpaid workers, civil unrest. It's not
26:03
Speaker 3: something they can afford. It's not something she can afford.
26:07
Speaker 3: I think we're going to see a change in leadership
26:09
Speaker 3: in China in the near future, John, we'll see that.
26:14
Speaker 1: Okay, what you're describing would be really good, But this
26:19
Speaker 1: sounds like a big ask because you know that the
26:23
Speaker 1: recent history, I mean, NATO has poisoned so many wells
26:26
Speaker 1: and everything. But the other thing with dictatorships is that
26:33
Speaker 1: the guy in charge usually tries to stay for too
26:37
Speaker 1: long and then there's chaos when he leaves. Finally, and
26:42
Speaker 1: you know, both g and Putin have been in power
26:45
Speaker 1: for a long time and there's no obvious successor so
26:49
Speaker 1: you get the potential for a civil war when either
26:51
Speaker 1: one of them leaves or is deposed or whatever, and
26:55
Speaker 1: so you can't really you can't necessarily trust them. I mean,
26:59
Speaker 1: you might be able to trust promise from Putin, but
27:01
Speaker 1: how long will Putin be there? And so you can't
27:04
Speaker 1: know who's going to come next, and so so there's
27:08
Speaker 1: more chaos no matter what kind of a deal we
27:10
Speaker 1: cut right now, there is more turmoil coming, I think,
27:15
Speaker 1: just because you know, the world has so many dictators
27:21
Speaker 1: in powerful places that aren't going to go easily, and
27:26
Speaker 1: so when it happens, yeah, so so in other words,
27:29
Speaker 1: the end of history is not anywhere near, but there's
27:33
Speaker 1: still going to be a lot of crazy stuff going
27:35
Speaker 1: on out there. But I would I'd be happy if
27:37
Speaker 1: we just don't knew each other for the next ten years.
27:39
Speaker 1: You know, if we avoid a nuclear war for ten years,
27:42
Speaker 1: that would be a pretty big win considering where we
27:45
Speaker 1: started three years ago.
27:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, interesting times. May we live in interesting times
27:52
Speaker 3: and that we definitely are. So if you want to
27:56
Speaker 3: check it out, go to John Substack orbino dots stack
28:00
Speaker 3: dot com. I actually set up a substack recently, but
28:04
Speaker 3: don't worry about that the links are all in the
28:05
Speaker 3: show notes and book meant to tell you John. The
28:09
Speaker 3: book the world, according to Martin Armstrong conversations with the
28:14
Speaker 3: master forecast are passing one thousand copies probably tomorrow sold
28:20
Speaker 3: with no giveaways, no discounts, no nothing that people just
28:23
Speaker 3: buying the book, great reviews, links in the show notes.
28:28
Speaker 3: You can find it in Amazon or wherever fine books
28:30
Speaker 3: used to be sold. And John, we'll catch up with
28:34
Speaker 3: you in a few weeks. Be well.
28:36
Speaker 1: Thanks Gerry, take care, thanks.
28:37
Speaker 2: For listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution
28:42
Speaker 2: to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial
28:46
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