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NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Best Bets Sunday 12/21/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wickends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: into peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my brons haack. Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: arch Hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what day it is anymore. Man, back with
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five. The worst month
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slumperies, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you, Toadstool Sports, Sunday,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: December twenty first, thanks everybody for hanging out for the
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: NFL Show US. I will reiterate my three NFL plays
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: of the day at the end of the show today.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: You guys can go check that out to see the analysis.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna put the videos out on Instagram as well.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: I gotta get my I have a college basketball play,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: so I have to or I have two. Actually one
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: is at noon Eastern, so I do have to get
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: those videos out as well. Bigger college basketball board than
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I thought, and I think I'm being selective here. I'm
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: gonna try to get through it as fast as I can.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have one NHL play. It's a bigger NHL
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: board than I expected, but I'm being selective again, one
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: play and then NBA also trying to be selective. I
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: got two plays in the NBA. So yeah, well, I
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: was gonna say, let's get into it. But yesterday six
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: and oh on the show yesterday baby with the actual plays.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Some of the liens got there as well, but we
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: had NC Central that was a winner. In college basketball,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: they were in the game, then they fell behind by
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: a decent margin. They came back and I believe they
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: sent the game into overtime. They lost by two, but
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: they did cover. So I'll take it Denver. In college basketball,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I told you to not not try to middle North
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: North Northern Colorado man, not try to play the unc
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: is like I was just all in on the underdog
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: on that one, just because of the spot. I'm looking
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: for the strongest spots, Denver. I mean, they were losing
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: that game by I think somewhere around eleven points early
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: in the second half whatever, but they wound up winning
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: the game out right. I did say, I'm on record
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: saying there was a decent chance they were gonna win
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: it out right. They did, so, I mean I'm happy
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: about it because my handicap was right. And I always say,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: sprinkle some amount of the money line man, anything in
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: a single digit spread range, I say, put ten percent
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: of it on the money line, so that was a
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: nice cash on that one. Mississippi State got there as well.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: They're out of the gate with a ten point lead
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: almost immediately, then they blew the whole thing and then
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: they were actually losing the game outright by a couple
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: points I think later in the game, but they were
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: able to swing it back in their favor and they
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: wound up covering I think maybe some intentional free throws
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: helping out down the stretch there. But we got the
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: win with Mississippi State Hockey. We got the win with
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: the Saint Louis Blue. It was not really a sweat
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: outright win there. I think they were winning pretty much
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: the whole game. They wound up winning six to two.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I think it might have been tied at one point,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: but really never in danger of being a loss on
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: that one, because again we did the split puck line
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: on that one is what I recommended, so if they
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: had lost by one, it still would have been a push,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: but really never in doubt. They won the game outright,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: either six to two or six to three I think.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: And then Seattle got there for us as well. After
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: taking the lead early, they actually fell behind by a goal,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: came back, swung the lead back in their favor, and
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: they wound up winning in the end four to two.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: So we got the win on Seattle as well. While
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I was doing the NFL show, that game came in,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: and then we got an outright win on the Washington Wizards.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: The Wizards, they were losing by more than what the
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: spread was. Somewhere in the second second quarter. I think,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they did, but they wound up
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: really playing well later in the game and they won
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the game outright. Big win for us, and maybe that's
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: a good sign because we are going to have some
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: large underdogs today in the NBA as well, so hopefully
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: they can continue to come in. Man, all right, let's
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: get into college basketball here. Let's do it. Man. More
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: college basketball than I thought we would have today, really
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: kind of a big board. I'm kind of surprised by
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: that we do have Florida playing on SEC network, number
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: twenty three. Florida at home, I think in this one
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: hosting Colgate to kick off the slate at noon. I
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: just don't really have an opinion on it though. I mean,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Colgate ideally they're going to try to show up to
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: play Florida. Colgate's coming off a big game before this though,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: at Saint Bonaventure. Bonn Adventure is a good team in
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: their neck of the woods. There a upstate New York
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: battle there. They took the loss by eight. Difficult game,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So Colgate now having to go down to Florida and
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: play another big effort game could be kind of difficult
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: for them. Man, Florida not as bad as their record looks,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: as they keep iterating, they are undefeated at home. They
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: have had difficulty stepping up in class, but that's not
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: what they're doing here against a pretty weak Colgate team.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So it wouldn't surprise me if Florida was able to
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: cover this number. And they're not coming off a big
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: game either, and they're coming off playing Saint Francis, and
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: I think covering that number even though it was huge.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Florida's a twenty eight and a half point favorite in
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: this one. If they could speed this up, I think
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: that's also going to annoy Colgate because Colgate wants to
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: go slower. So I would probably lay the points with
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Florida on this one. They're twenty eight and a half
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: point favorites ninety four percent of the cash on them,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: even though the number dropped from thirty fifty percent of
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: the tickets are evenly split. But that's my feeling on
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: that game. Charleston Northern Kentucky Charleston. First look at this
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: is that Charleston's gonna play better here because they're coming
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: off a game against in state little brother the Citadel
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: and barely getting by them by four points. So Citadel
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: not a good team and really still up their game
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: for that now Charleston's coming off with that. But Charleston,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: they're not really road tested so far. They played at
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Liberty and at South Florida and lost both games, although
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: they played pretty well all things considered at South Florida,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: only losing that game by six. That's not that bad. Now.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Northern Kentucky not as good as maybe not even as
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: good as either of those two teams, but not as
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: good as South Florida, I don't believe. Still not a
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: bad team, though Northern Kentucky is one of the better
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: teams in the horizon. Charleston is having to go back
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: out on the road for this, so I do worry
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit about that. Northern Kentucky seven and one
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: at home, although again you got to take these like
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: home records with a little bit of grain of salt,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: because a lot of the games are gonna be against
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: non D one teams this early in the season. Northern
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Kentucky coming off a loss to Oakland in a Horizon Battle.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Oakland decent team, though, so I don't know how Northern
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is gonna respond to that. They were a favorite.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So they did take an upset in that game, a
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: mild upset. So does that mean they'll bounce back from it? Maybe?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, all things, considering this one, I kind of
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: lean towards Charleston because their game was just uglier in
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: the last game. Where are they at here? The money
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: is coming into Northern Kentucky, driving them up from two
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: to four, seventy four percent of tickets ninety six percent
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. I'm kind of leaning the
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: other way in this one, though, toward's taking it with Charleston.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: But I mean, of course, it's a game I don't
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: want to touch. One of the games I am gonna
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: touch noontime on the Big ten network. We're gonna go
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: with the non Big ten team in this one. Early
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: best bet, let's go. We are gonna go with Pittsburgh
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: on the money line here. This number is kind of
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: all over the place. I see different books have each
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: team as a favorite in this one. So get the
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: best number that you can. But I think the best
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: number you're gonna find is probably on the money line.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: This was at FanDuel where I found it. But if
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: you can find pitt at like plus one, I would
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: do that too. But in a minus one situation, I
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: think it's better to go to the money line. Guys
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: will tell you it's actually plus it's more advantageous, it's
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: plus ev Even more so if you take college basketball
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: favorite that's minus one, minus one and a half or
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: minus two and actually money line them instead. So this
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: is a very cheap money line price. We're gonna money
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: line this. This game is not at penn State. It's
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: actually kind of a neutral site game, but sort of
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: I think in I mean, it's in Pennsylvania, which both
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: of these teams are Pennsylvania teams. It's in Hershey, which
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: my Pennsylvania geography is not that good, even though I'm
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: good at geography, so I know Pittsburgh's West penn State.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: It's further east than that Hershey. I'm not sure, it
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: might be closer to Penn State, but either way, you're
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: gonna have a crowd for both teams showing up for
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: this one, I would have to imagine. And this is
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: really a fade of the situation the Penn State is in.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: That's what my two college basketball players are today. We're
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: fading teams that I think are in bad spots. Penn
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: State got to win for us last weekend. I think
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: with a huge game against Michigan State. They almost pulled
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: off the upset against Michigan State. That would have been
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a gigantic upset against a top ten ranked team, one
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: of the best teams in the conference. I think they're
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: gonna fall flat after that performance. Man, even though they
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: have had some time off, that's just a crazy game
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: to have to deal with. Now they've been letting that
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: stew for over a week. I don't like that situation.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Even though sometimes yeah, you will be able to end
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: a losing streak by having a lot of time off,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: but in this case, I don't really think so. And
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: they got to get into the holidays after this for
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: pitt The spot sets up better for pitt Man because
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: speaking of breaking losing momentum, they already did that with
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: an easy win over Binghamton in their last game, so
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I think Pitt comes into this with momentum. And yes,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: I worry that Pitt has been bad when stepping up
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: in Class West Virginia. They lost horribly to them, They
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: lost to Texas A and m Willough only by eight,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: lost fairly badly to Villanova. But they do have a
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: win against Ohio State in here, so it's not unprecedented
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: for them to be a mediocre Big Ten team, which
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I consider Ohio State and Penn State to both be
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: mediocre Big Ten teams. So we are gonna go with Pitt.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: They're gonna have to win the game obviously here, but
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I think they could do it and that is what
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do here. Sorry, I close the tab there. Yeah,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Pitt is the first play up here. I don't know
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: what the market looks like on this, but I'm just
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: going based on the situation. Money is agreeing with me
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: on this one. Penn State moved up a little bit
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: on the line here, but fifty nine percent of the
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: tickets on them. The public doesn't really want Pitt here.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: They have the slightly worst record as well. Pitt eighty
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on them. Though ken Baum
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I believe has Pitt the slightly worst team here right now.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: He has these teams really close together, though, but Pitt
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: is the better defense, and you know me, I like
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: better defense. Penn State's defense has been awful. Pitt might
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: successfully slow the game down to they play much much
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: slower than Penn State does. So if Pitt plays that
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: slow defensive style, that's not what Penn State wants to do,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: and it's easier for a team to play that way
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: and get control of the game by slowing it down
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: then speeding it up. Pitt also way low and ken
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Bump's luck index at three on nine, so he's telling
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: you they're undervalued right now. Where he's he's saying Penn
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: State is overvalued at twenty ninth in lock, meaning they've
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: overperformed big times. So we're gonna do it. And also, like,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: who's gonna want Pitt when they're six and six and
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Penn State is eight and three and everybody just saw
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Penn State almost beating Michigan State. Absolutely nobody's gonna want
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Pitt in this one. So I do. Let's take it
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Pit money line. That's the first play let's do it, Garrett.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: What's up man? Yes, come back today. Man. The heels, Yeah,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: they did not cover. I did not have a good
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: read on that game, man. But again I'm giving out
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: my absolute best and strongest leans and my recommendation is
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: to just play those and nothing else. I mean, I
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: went six and oh yesterday. Yeah, I know, I know
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: what you meant. You said you didn't have a good
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: day a Packers was bullshit, dude. I mean, come on, Like,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: they lost Jordan Love in the middle of the game.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: They were still winning by ten with two minutes left
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: in the game. Chicago's offense did absolute zero in the
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: whole game. Basically, they had no touchdowns until after they
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: were covered. An on site kick, which is the only
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: thing that kept them in the game at all, tied
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: the game where I thought they were gonna go for
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: a two point conversion to win it there and they
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: didn't do it. And then Packers get the ball first,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: they're driving an overtime, and then they have their they
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: had a backup center and quarterback in and they fumbled
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: it on a fourth down play where they had to
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: go for it on fourth down because they were really
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: not going to make that field goal. They had to
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: do it, but that was just ridiculous, dude, absolute bullshit.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I told you to not play North of Colorado, dude, yet,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: don't blame me for that. I said all in on
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Denver in that game, man, and I explicitly said that
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Denver had a good chance to win that game outright,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: based on my situational on Alice. I'm on fire right now. Man.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: You do not want to fade me, baby, No, I'm
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: not alive. I'm dead. Let's get through this stuff here.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: By the way, pay for Ken Bom. It's worth it,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: like thirty bucks a year. You get a lot of
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: stats and analysis and stuff. Sob what's up man? Eight
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: and one for you yesterday, yep, six and oero for me.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Let's go, baby. I think we had some overlap there
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: as well. Hell yeah, all right, Vandy and wake Forest.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: This is a good game at one on the CEDW network.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Enjoy watching that network for this. Vandy legit pretty good.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Thirteenth in the country. Ken Bomb actually might have them
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: higher than that. He's got them somewhere. I think in
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: the top ten. Yeah, he's got them exactly tenth. Vandy.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a game where they almost lost to Memphis,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: so I thought maybe they'd be looking ahead. Potentially, I
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: thought Memphis might catch them. Vandy was able to win
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: in overtime. Memphis still covered luckily for the Memphis backers there,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: and that was a lean that I gave out of
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Memphis in that game as well. Now, I could see
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: this going both ways, man, because that was a tough
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: overtime game. Memphis isn't really that bad so and it's
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: an in state kind of rivalry game for Vandy there,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: so it's a satisfying win for Vandy. So it could
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: go two ways. Do they fall flat in the next
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: game because that was a big game, or do they
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: bounce back because they didn't play well as a favorite.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: That's kind of what you have to gauge in this game.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: For Wake, I think the answer is clear though. For Wake,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: they were awful and the last game against Longwood they
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: almost lost the game that was sob I think you
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: won on that one. That was a lean for me.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: That was the first game that I left off my
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: card that day for college basketball. I think it was
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the week. Wish I added it
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: to my card, but it was. Yeah, I mean I
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: got to be selective. It was the first game I
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: left off. It was a winner on Longwood. Long Wood
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: almost won the game out right. It was a horrible
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: performance from Wake. If I were to guess, I would
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: say Wake is going to show up in this one,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: and that's the way that I would lean. The money
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: seems to agree with it. The public's gonna look at
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: this and probably want to lay the five with Vandy.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: It doesn't look like that many points to lay here.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're looking at a Vandy team, it's eleven
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: to zero ranked. I mean, the public is not going
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: to do anything else here. Wake sneaky though they're nine
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: to three, seven to one at home. I don't think
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: they have the best schedule so far. But yeah, in
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: this game, I would lean towards taking the points with Wake,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: especially after how bad they were in the last game.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Fifty four percent of the tickets and eighty five percent
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Wake Forest. So that is the
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: lean that I would have there. Joey, what's up man
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: ken Bump? Yes, he's if that's what you're talking about. Yeah,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: he's specifically, he has a database of the of just
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: college basketball stats and analysis, and he is the best
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: at it's still he's the og at it. There are
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: a few other guys out there that do good work
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: as well, Bart Torvic very Simple or Evan Maya. But
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: I've always been a ken Bump subscriber for like over
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: a decade at least at this point, I think thirty
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: bucks a year is like nothing, so like and you
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: get a ton of stats with it. Yeah, I support
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: his work. I like it, even though even though he's
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: an autist. But so am I. Yes, Sir zach Uh
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: winning day all around? Hell yeah, all right, Quinnipiac and Hofstra,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I eyed this game, man, because my instinct on this
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: is that Hostra is gonna be in a letdown spot.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, they just beat in state big brother Syracuse
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: on the road. That's a big upset al though Syracuse
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: not great right now, so it was probably about a
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: nine ten point upset maybe, but it is still Syracuse.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: It's a big upset for a hofstru man, and again
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: both teams in the state of New York coming off
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: of that. But I don't know if they're necessarily gonna
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: overlook Quinnipiac because they're also fairly good. Off to a
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: good start here. Hastra decent team, though they're having to
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: lay points in this game. Quinnipiac just beat Monmouth in
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: the last game, an easier win, a though that was
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: actually an upset I think at Monmouth think. I think
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Monmouth was probably actually a small favorite in that game
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: over Quinnipiac. I'm not gonna quite get there with this one,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: but I would lean to Quinnipiac here. I think the
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: main crux of this handicap is that Hostra is going
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: to be in a letdown spot off of that Syracuse upset.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: This one was close to being a play for me.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Hostro is a six point favorite, up from five and
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: a half. Fifty six percent of the tickets are on Hostra,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: about fifty four percent of the cash back on the
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: Quinnipiac side. Yeah, I would lean to Quinnipiac in that one.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Mister Pinsey, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out. Yes,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: sir Joey, thanks for checking out the show man. I
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. Hell yeah, sob hating the oilers, You're oh,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: you're you're spying on me? What you think my my
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: one hockey play today is the Vegas Golden Knights. Is
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: that what you're implying? I don't know, we'll have to
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: see about that one. We have a good game on
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: ESPN at one pm Eastern between Ole Miss and NC State.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Now this game SEC versus ACC. You know, there's the
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: whole thing. Oh, the SEC is really good. They were
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the best conference in college basketball last year. They won
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: the championship as well. Whatever I'm gonna tell you. Ole
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: misses down this year though. Man, They're not as good
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: as they were last year. Everybody remembers them making that
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: nice run in the tournament last year to the sweet sixteen.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: They're not that great this year though, man, And their
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: schedule really is unimpressive. So far. They have not stepped
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: up well in class at all. Every time they faced
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: a big conference team so far, they've lost. They lost
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: to Iowa. Iowa was definitely pretty good, but then they
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: also lost to Utah. That's not a good loss. I mean,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Utah not very good this year. In Miami is okay.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: They took a loss there too. They played well at
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Saint John, so I'll give them credit for that. They
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: were able to slow the game down. Lost. Now they're
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: coming off two pretty easy games, well, one where we
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: had Southern Miss. By the way, Southern Miss almost beat
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: them as an in state little brother there. Ole Miss
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: escape that one and then they beat Alabama A and M.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Who cares, that's what they're coming off of here, But
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss they're not that good, dude. NC State is
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: the better team here. NC State is also going to
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: try to speed this game up. I know the totals
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: not very high, but Ole Miss plays slow. And this
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: game being in North Carolina, it's not at NC State
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: though it's in Greensboro, but it's kind of a semi
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: home game for North Carolina for NC State, I mean
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: because it is still in North Carolina, so their crowd
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: should show up for this. Obviously, the location is advantageous
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: for them. I think they should be able to control
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: the pace here, speed this game up a bit, throw
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss out of what they want to do. NC
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: State coming up in easy Winever Texas Southern. They've lost
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: most of their big games as well, so you could
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: make the same knock on them all their big conference
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: games of also been lost is to seton Hall, Texas, Auburn, Kansas,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: But to me, they faced some more difficult schedule. They
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: lost by one to Kansas, five to Texas, I mean
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: ten to Auburn, I'm not gonna knock them for any
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: of those. Really, the seton Hall lost, I mean Seten
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Hall looks like they're better this year. At least NC
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: State has a win over VCU, which I think is
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: actually better than anything that Ole Miss has done so far.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: I like NC State and this one Ken Bomb will
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: tell you that NC State is the better team as well.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: He's got them at thirty ole Miss. I don't know
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: where he has Old Miss way down at fifty eighth.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: So yeah, all things consider, it's not a play for me,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: but I would lay it with NC State if I
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: was gonna do it. It's up to that key ish
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: number of seven though. Seven in basketball is when teams
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: stop intentionally fouling, So you want to get the better
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: of the number seven if you can look for like
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: a six and a half. If you want to lay
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: it with NC State, I mean, if you want to
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: play the game, that's the only way that I would
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: play at those to lay the points. Or if you
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: want to like moneyline, parlay NC State with some other
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: moneyline favorite that I have an opinion on, or one
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: of your own whatever. I don't mind that either, even
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: though me I know I keep saying I don't like parlays,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: but if you really wanted to do it, eighty percent
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, ninety seven percent of the cash on
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: NC State. The total drop is worrying me though, because
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: I think NC State is correlated to an over in
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: that game because of the pace that they play. What's up, guys,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: sob you have you're faining the Rangers and the Oilers.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: You kind of like the Penguins. I'm gonna talk about
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: all those games once I get done with college basketball.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Here stony Brook at Marist. I'm looking at this game
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, I mean, stony Brook just took a
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: ridiculous loss at home to Albany. Albany and he probably
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: considers themselves an in state little brother at this point.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: I know I've made fun of stony Brook this year,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: but they're actually playing pretty well. They actually might be
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: one of the better teams in the Colonial or whatever
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the hell this is called now, I still call it
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: the Colonial. Not gonna deal with this woke name changing bullshit.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Stony Brook. They were a favorite in that game at home,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: and they lost to a pretty atrocious Albany team. That
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: was an awful game for Stony Brooks, so I kind
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: of expect them to show up in this one. Maris
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: is one of the best teams in the matt Ac.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Maris has been good at home though five and one.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not I don't exactly love it, but
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Maris is coming off a game against Georgia Tech, so
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: that was a step up game for them playing an
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: ACC team. Although they weren't exactly in the game. They
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: lost by eleven. They were pretty much down double digits
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: for the final stretch of that game, so it wasn't
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: like a game where they were close in the closing
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: moments of it. It did break a long win streak
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: for Marius, though, and sometimes I talk about how that
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: will hang a team over into the next game. So
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: all things considered in that game, I would lean towards
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Stony Brook plus the points. In that game, Maris is
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: a four and a half point favorite. Seventy five percent
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: of tickets ninety two percent of the cash on Maris
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: right now, but I think Stony Brook is the right side.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: The total is gone way up for some reason, up
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: seven points, but it's still really low one hundred and
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half, So taking the points kind
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: of makes sense in that one. All right, we have
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: a ranked Alabama team here playing against who are they playing?
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Kenisa State. I mean, Alabama is gonna be a huge
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: favorite here. The game is not at Alabama though, it's
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: in Huntsville, so it is a semi home game for Alabama.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Kanisaw is not really that far away though they're a
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Georgia school. But obviously it's kind of a semi home
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: game for Alabama here. Kennesaw just lost at Middle Tennessee.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee I think is an okay team. Middle Tennessee
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: is currently atop the Conference USA just because they got
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: that conference win. This is the Rocket City Classic in Huntsville,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: Alabama coming off beating South Florida a little bit of
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: a bigger win there. I don't I don't know. I
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: don't really have a read on this game. I don't
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: have a good read. The money is coming in taking
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: the points with Kennisaw. Alabama up from twenty to twenty
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: one here, fifty seven percent of tickets on them, seventy
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on Knasaw. I mean, it
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: is a situation where maybe Alabama just doesn't have full
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: focus against a pretty weak opponent like this The total
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: is crazy in this game and one hundred and eighty
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: one and a half. It actually dropped a little bit.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: But we know Alabama likes to play super fast, but
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: I think Kennisaw does as well. So this is probably
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: a game where we're gonna see a lot of scoring. Yeah,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Kennisaw is tenth in the in college basketball and tempo
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Absolute insanity. Man, if you like scoring, this might be
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: the game for you. Problem is like, if Alabama has
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: a big lead, they might start slowing the game down
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: just to get the game over, you know what I mean,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: and just they don't want to They're not gonna really
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: have incentive to really over exert themselves. I wouldn't imagine,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: you know. So that would that would be my hesitation
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: with looking towards an over in this game, because you
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: know me, I recommend overs when it's a high total,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: because the high total is there for a reason. But
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: in this one, I don't know. I worry about Alabama
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: having a big lead and just taking their foot off
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: the gas. So that's kind of the issue with the
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: over in that game. Seven and oh last seven Brooklyn
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Nets games for you. You went against them in the last game,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I was on them not too long ago, and gotta
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: win with them, I think, right, I forget who that was.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: It was against the Bucks maybe, and I forget what
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: it was. I don't have anything on the Nets game today, though, Okay,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: what else we got here? If you want to talk
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: about any of these other games that I'm skipping, I will,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: but you know, for time, I'm trying to skip some
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: of these. IPFW. Notre Dame somewhat interesting in the afternoon
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: here because this is an Indiana battle IPFW in Fort
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Wayne and obviously Notre Dame in South Bend or Notre Dame.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: So IPFW probably will step up their game for an
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: in state little brother versus big brother situation here IPFW
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: up beating Detroit Mercy. IPFW was a favorite in this game,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: and they didn't play particularly well. Maybe they were looking ahead.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: They almost lost. Detroit Mercy is not as bad as
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: they have been the last couple of years, though. Notre
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Dame undefeated at home, though IPFW is not one on
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: the road yet Notre Dame. I mean, the one thing
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: you could argue against Notre Dame here is that after
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: this game they got Christmas and then they're gonna have
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: to go to Stanford, so they start acc playing. They
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: started against one of their historical rivals in Stanford, so
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: there is a potential look ahead here where I think
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: this game does also mean more to IPFW. Notre Dame's
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: coming up smacking down one of the other in state
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: little brothers in Evansville. Evansville is bad. IPFW is better
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: than they are at least. Notre Dame only a thirteen
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: and a half way favorite here and the total dropped
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: to one hundred and forty six and a half, So
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: kind of makes sense to take the points here. To me,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: not a play that I'm giving out on the show,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: but I would lean towards taking the points with IPFW.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Gardner Webb is facing Tennessee, number twenty in the country, Tennessee.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: I think this game is at Tennessee, right, I believe
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: it is. Tennessee just came off. They're coming off a
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: huge win over Louisville Man, and they're coming out of
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: a stretch where they were in Las Vegas and they
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: played Rutgers. They pulled off a huge upset against Houston,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: which was not a huge upset points spread wise, but
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: huge because Houston was the team at knock Tennessee out
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: of the tournament last year. Then they played close against Kansas,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: which we won on Kansas in that game in the
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: letdown spot for Tennessee. Then we won again going against
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: Tennessee with Syracuse, because I thought after all those games
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: flat spot two road game at Syracuse, they lost the game,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: they didn't bounce back and they lost to Illinois. But
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: then they did bounce back nicely after that with the
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: throttling of Louisville at home, which that was a lean
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: that I gave on on the show, not a play,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: but I was correct on Tennessee on that one. They
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: might be feeling a little bit like sky high after
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: that win. Man, so it could be a little bit
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: of a let down after such a big win. I'm
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: gonna lean towards Gardner Webb in this game, but boy
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: are they awful and they're own seven on the road,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's six and oh at home. But you're asuing Tennessee
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: to lay more than forty points in this game. That's
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: how bad Gardner web is. Forty two is the spread
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: here now Tennessee they like to play pretty slow, so
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: it probably is a game where Tennessee's just gonna get in,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: get out. I mean you're asking a slow paced team
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: to win by forty two to cover that for you,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: probably not the right way to go. I would look
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: towards taking the points in that one total not exactly
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: that high really, it's kind of a mid range total
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: at one fifty two and a half. So yeah, I
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: think taking the points does make sense. But Man Gardner
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Webb is an atrocity. If if you're gonna play that,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: you're basically just banking on Tennessee's just gonna try to
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: get in get out. They'll play slow, they won't score
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: enough to cover. I mean, they can win that game
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: by thirty five and not even really come close to covering.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: So that's what I feel about that game. Cornell had
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: all been as I already mentioned, Albany just pulled off
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: a nice upset at Stony Brook, and they have South
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: Carolina next after Christmas. That's one of the bigger games
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: on Albany's entire schedule playing an SEC team, so that
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: kind of makes it look like a sandwich about the
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: problem is, I think Albany is gonna step up their
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: game for a game against Cornell as well, because Cornell
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: is in the same region of the state. Basically, it's
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: an upstate New York battle. I think they consider Cornell
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: to be a bigger brother to them, So that's kind
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: of my hesitation with fading Albany. In this one. Cornell
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: just had to go down to Samford. They're playing a fourth,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: fifth straight road game. I can't even count. It's my
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: stroke brain. I can't see like I can't see, man,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Like I'm not even kidding, Like my vision is fucked up.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: So like when I'm looking at things in a line
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: like this, I see fewer or more than there actually are.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know how to describe it. Cornell does have
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Michigan State after Christmas as well, so potential look ahead there.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: So I can't get there with Cornell in this one.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I would probably lean that way.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: The money did come in initially on them to drive
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: it up from five to six and a half, but
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: I worry that all. But he will still potentially show
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: up and play in that game. So that's my concern there, Charles,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: what's up, man? All Right? The last best bet that
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: I have in college basketball is coming up right here.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be on Northern Arizona in this one. Hold on,
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: where's my banner here? I think you can find seven
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: and a half on this on Northern Arizona. That's what
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do. We're gonna fade Incarnate Word. I know
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: I've been involved in some of their games this year
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: and been fairly good. The line's already down to six.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: I'm still gonna recommend taking the points here, though, I mean,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: we got a pretty low total one hundred and forty
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: one and a half. Literally this was seven and a
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: half right before I started the show though, So the
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: line might be all over the place, but find the
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: best number that you can. Seven is somewhat key in basketball,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: so I would at least try to get the seven.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: But I'll still recommend this at six and a half.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe put a little bit less money on so, but
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: I like this one man, Incarnate Word. They're coming off
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: a monster performance against in state big brother TCU, and
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure Incarnate Word is in Texas, right. Let
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: me make sure of that. This game against MacNeice was
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: in San Antonio? Is that really where they are though?
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: As a home team? Let me see, I don't know
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: where Incarnate Word is. I think so they're in San Antonio. Okay,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: so yeah, Incarnate Word huge game against TCU in state
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: rival TCU, and they took TCU right to the wire. Dude.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: They lost by four in a slow grinding game, and
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: that game was that game was tied with a minute
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: to go, dude, So Incarnate Word almost pulled off a
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: monumental upset there. There probably were about twenty point dogs
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: in that game. I would imagine. Now they're coming off
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: of that and they got Northern Arizona, then they have Christmas,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: and then after Christmas they go back to conference play.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: After this, Northern Arizona is an out of conference game
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: here because they're in the Big Sky. So really kind
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: of a weird situation here. I think it's a huge
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: hangover spot because again I always say, when a team
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: is a huge underdog and they play a huge step
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: up game like that and they play really well, they
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: tend to fall in big time flat in the next
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: game and you're asking them to cover a number like
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: this as a slow paced team as well, I don't
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: like it. I know they're four and zero at home.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I know Northern Arizona's own four on the road. If
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: you dive into the schedules, though, I mean incarnate word.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: I mean some of their wins are against bad teams
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: at home. They did have that one big win against
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: MacNeice at home, but the rest of their home wins
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: are stupid. They beat a Southern Indiana terrible team and
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: two non Division one teams, So I'm not impressed by that.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: And you know, they stepped up their game for MacNeice
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: because they're the team to beat in the Southland Conference.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: Still for Northern Arizona, I mean, if you look at
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: some of the games they've lost on the road, they
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: lost at Arizona and at Arizona State. I mean, come on, like,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: obviously they're gonna lose those at North Dakota State by
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: one point. That is really not a bad loss. And
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: then they did lose at San Diego, but you know,
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: it is what it is. They bounce back after that, though,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: So they just broke a losing streak with a win
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: over Southern Utah. Southern Utah is pretty bad, but Northern
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Arizona got the win. I think it's good because it's
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: a win that won't make you overconfident, but it will
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: break that losing streak. I think they're gonna show up
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: with some new momentum into here man and they don't
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: have a bigger game up next, so I think they're
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: gonna show up here. I like Northern Arizona. I know
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: some of the ken Pum numbers don't make this look
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: that good. Like Northern Arizona is really high up in
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: his luck index here, although both teams are fairly high up,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: I think actually not that high one twenty eight. I
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: think he does have them as the more lucky team.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: But the one thing that I'm looking at here that
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: does look good as far as ken Bum is concerned, well,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: both teams like to play slow, so that means points
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be at more at a premium here, so
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: I like to take points in that case. But Northern
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Arizona is also the better defense, and you're getting the
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: better defense getting points. Ken Bomb has them at two
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: hundred and fourth in the country and defensive efficiency. He
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: has Incarnate Word at a disgusting two hundred and ninety
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: second in defensive efficiencies, so I don't like that. He
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: does say Incarnate Word has the more difficult schedule though,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: and they're lower in the luck index, meaning that they've
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: underperformed a little bit. But in this game. Yeah, I
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: think the move is to fade incarnate word here man
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: better defense, getting points, slow paced game plus the incarnate
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: word in a terrible, terrible spot. So Northern Arizona plus
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: the points is the play there Again, I would still
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I think do it at six and a half. Hopefully
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: it doesn't land on that key seven, but that is
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: the other way that I would play that one. We
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: have Oregon State at Arizona State on ESPN two, a
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: nice former Pac twelve matchup here. Oregon State really not
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: that good though, I mean, they've kind of gone down
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: in quality after moving to the West Coast Conference. They're
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: coming up of a pretty ugly loss to Sam Houston
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: though at home. Although Oregon State was only a small
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: favorite of that game, this wasn't like the football game
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: where Sam Houston I think upset them. Oregon State They're
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: just not that great. Sam Houston is actually not that bad,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: but still it was a loss at home, kind of
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: an ugly one. Maybe they were looking ahead to Arizona State,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: but now they're having to go on the road and
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: for Oregon the only true road game. This is gonna
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: be the first true road game they played outside of
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: the state of Oregon. The only other one that they
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: played was at Oregon, and that's a team that they
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: play every year, so they're very familiar with it. There's
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: still somewhat familiar with Arizona State, but not as familiar.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: So this is gonna be almost like a first true
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: road game almost. Arizona State's been decent at home. You
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: see four and one at home. Arizona State did just
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: lose to UCLA, though, so that was a big, big game,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: and then they're gonna have a big break before they
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: start conference play. But they do start conference play next
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: against Colorado, who's not very good, but it is still
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the start of conference play. They weren't that close against UCLA,
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: so I don't know if it's really gonna be that
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: much of a hangover spot here or did bust up
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: a winning streak for Arizona State, though Arizona State's the
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: better team. But let me see what's the number here.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: They're up to a thirteen point favorite here, though I
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: would probably lean towards taking the points with Oregon State
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: in this one, but it's not a very strong opinion
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: of my pretty low total in the one forties. Don't
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: really have much else to say about that one. We
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: do have an ESPN game at three pm between Cincinnati
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: and Clemson, and this game is in Greenville, South Carolina,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: so it is not at Clemson, but it is a
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: semi home game for Clemson. Of course, the venue certainly
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: helps Clemson. Cincinnati they have not stepped up well in
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: class man, if you look at their resume here, all
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: their big conference games have been lost. As to Louisville,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: then they only lost by ten against cross city rival Xavier.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: They lost in Xavior is not very good this year,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: and they lost pretty badly to Georgia, who's a solid team.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: But still Cincinnati has not shown the ability to beat
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: these bigger, better caliber teams here. Clemson they've been a
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: little bit better in that regard. They Clemson actually beat Georgia,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: although people are gonna look at that and think, probably
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: think that maybe it looks easy to play Clemson here
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: for that reason. But Clemson does have some wins against
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: some power conference teams at least, but they are coming
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: off one of those against South Carolina, and that was
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: a big game for Clemson, because that's it. It's always
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: big between those two teams. Man, probably a bigger deal
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: for South Carolina right now because Clemson has been the
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: better basketball program recently. But it's a big South Carolina
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: rivalry and they do start conference playing on New Year's
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Eve after this, so you could make the argument this
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: is a bit of a sandwich spot that Clemson is
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: in here. Tough Reid in this one, man, the money
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Clemson. The numbers up from five
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: to six, sixty tickets, ninety three percent of the cash
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: on them. The total is gonna up. But I think
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: if you like Clemson in this one, I think you're
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: probably thinking the game is gonna be lower scoring because
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: they slow the game way down. Ken Bum has him
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: at three point thirty in pace. Cincinnati is the team
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: that likes to speed the game up. Ken Bum does
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: have Cincinnati is this very weird team that's like an
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: extreme version of Saint John's where they play super fast,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: but their offense is terrible and their defense is really good.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: It makes absolutely no sense. It's like the extreme havoc
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: basically is what Cincinnati is doing. Ken Bum does have
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati pretty undervalued right now, even though he only has
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: him at seventy seventh in the country. I would probably
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: lean towards taking the points with Cincinnati and this one though,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: I just think the spot that Clemson is in is
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: a bit worse. But I don't really love it at all.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: So just my thoughts. I'm going through my thought process.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: You know, Jeffrey, what's up, man, Charles, what's up? Thanks
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: for hanging out everybody, all right, But I'll that I
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: want to talk about here. I will say, because TCU
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: is coming off that game where they almost lost an
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: incarnate word, I kind of expect them to show up
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: after that. When when you have a big favorite almost
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: lose the game like that and get a scare, usually
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: they come out and play way better in the next game.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: Florida A and M. I mean, it is a big
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: game for them. They'll try to step it up against TCU,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: but if they run into a focused TCU team, it's
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: probably going to be difficult for them. Although you are
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: asking TCU to lay thirty points with a total of
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: one hundred and forty and a half, so I don't
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: exactly love that idea. So yeah, I mean, do with
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: that what you will. If you forced me to pick,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: I would probably lay it with TCU, but I don't
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: love it at all. I did actually lay a huge
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: point s foreby TCU once this year and one against
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: atrocious Saint Francis. So there is at least some precedent
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: of TCU blowing teams off the floor when they're in
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: a bounced back spot. We have Big East play on
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: FS one at four point thirty number Yukon at DePaul.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Of course Yukon is the better team here, we all
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: know this. But Yukon they're on this nice run, man
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: where they haven't lost for a while, and in this
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: recent stretch, they beat Illinois Kansas. Then they had that
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: spot where they didn't cover against East Texas A and M.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: We won on East Texas A and M even though
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: they lost eighty three to fifty nine, that was still
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: a cover. Then Yukon had their huge win against Florida.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: They beat Texas although it didn't cover. Then they did
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: cover against Butler to open Big East play. I believe
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: big win beating Butler man and covering, And they are
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: gonna have Xavier up next, which is maybe a game
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be looking more ahead to than a De
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Paul game. I mean, De Paul has basically been the
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: doormat in this conference for basically since the conference realignments,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: so it is possible Yukon just doesn't pay a lot
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: of attention to De Paul here. I know Xavier's down
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: this year, though, so I don't know if that's necessarily
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: that big of a look ahead right now, those Xaviers
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: record is pretty good, so you could, I could. I
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: could buy the argument that this is kind of a
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot here. I think the game does mean more
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: to DePaul. They're coming off a loss to Saint John's,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: but this is gonna be their conference home opener. It's
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: a big deal having Yukon come into your place, man.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: So if I was gonna play it, I would actually
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: take the points with DePaul in this one. Yukon is
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: a fourteen and a half point favorite, seventy one percent
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, eighty one percent of the cash on them.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: But you're asking Connecticut to cover by a huge margin
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: on the road in a game with a total in
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: the one thirties, where both teams I think are going
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: to be trying to play slow, So points are probably
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be at a premium here. Yeah, I would take
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: the points if I was gonna do it. Don't love
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: it though, Capitals and Red Wings yes, there are two
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: zigzag hockey spots, correct and Penguins Canadians. All right, I
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: gotta get through these games. And college basketball is just absolutely,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: absolutely grueling, dude, I don't know why there's some many
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: fucking games today in college basketball. Indiana State and Illinois State.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: I kind of looked at this because Indiana State, they're
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: coming off a game where they took Bradley into triple overtime.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, you want to talk about grueling, huge game.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Bradley is one of the better teams in the Missouri Valley.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: Indiana State played them right to the world. I mean
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: three overtimes. I mean, come on, that's a monster game
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: there for both teams, really, but Indiana State, I think
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: being the underdog in that game, even though they were
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: at home, even bigger deal for them. And now they
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: come off of that, they got to play Illinois State
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: or the Illinois State's off to a good start this
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: year too, and they do a Belmont next though Belmont
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: even better than Illinois State. So you could make the
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: argument this is kind of a sandwich spot. It could
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: be like just a spot where Indiana State falls flat
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: after such a ridiculous game in their last game Illinois State.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: They are coming off pulling off a mild upset, though
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: I believe at Southern Illinois, so I don't know. I
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: can't quite get there with this one, but I think
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: the move would be to fade Indiana State off of
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: what they just did against Bradley. Illinois State's a thirteen
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: point favorite here though, so Oddsmaker's telling you Indiana State
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: is really not that good. If I was gonna play it,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I would lay it with Illinois State in that one,
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: but that's not gonna make my card. All right, we
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: have number four Iowa States hosting Long Beach. Long Beach
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: is just horrific. Long Beach. They're coming out of actually
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: winning against pepper Dye, So there you go. They broke
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: a loss street with a win there, gonna you know,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: they're gonna have to step it up, way, step it
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: way up in class to by Iowa State. Though I
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: think the issue is does Iowa State give a shit
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: about this game? Like, of course they're gonna win, but
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: are they gonna cover a giant number like this when
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: they really don't have a reason to go all out here?
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Maybe not so, I mean, they're the way way better team,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: but laying points like this. I don't know, man, They're
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: up to a thirty seven point favorite. The money's coming
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: back on Long Beach, sixty seven percent of the tickets
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: on Iowa State, ninety one percent of the cash on
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Long Beach. The money is saying Long Beach there. I'm
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: not really gonna disagree, but it's not a game that
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: I even really have a read on. Really, you're just
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: banking on Iowa State, just not giving a full effort here,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: and they don't need to win the game. So those
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: are the thoughts on that Chappelle's new special. I mean,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: when was this last special that was really that good?
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know. He was awesome when I saw him
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: live a couple of years ago, though, which is part
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: of the I think he did release a special based
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: off of that set. I forget what the name of
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: it was, but it would have been like a couple
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: of years ago. But that was an awesome show seeing
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: it live. He was so good at that one. He's
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: still the master man he is. He is one of
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: the best comedians out there still, and one of the
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: good things about him is he still doesn't give a shit,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: like he will just touch third rail topics and not care.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Uh so I like that about him. Oregon playing Gonzaga
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: in Portland, Oregon, so the location is better for Oregon here,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: but obviously Gonzaga is the way better team. This is
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be a big contrast to styles. Oregon kind of
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: plays slow, ugly basketball. Gonzaga likes to speed it way up.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, which one of those paces is gonna win out?
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Probably Gonzaga because they are the better team. Oregon's been
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: really awful so far this year though. It's like, is
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: Oregon really this bad? I don't know, man, but they
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: have not stepped up well in class at all. They
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: have not had really even had a good performance against
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: any like power team except I guess they played pretty
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: close at home against USC. I think USC might have
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: had a major injury going on when that game was
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: played too. I forget. Oregon is coming off two wins
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: against two like bad teams where they just beat in
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: state little brother Portland, so they're at least coming into
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: this game with the momentum. This is the Northwest Elite showdown.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Gonzaga is staying in the area as well. I believe
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: they had a game against Campbell last so they have
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: them coming into this too. If both teams are coming
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: into this basically both in a good spot. I don't know.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean to Gonzaga. I'm wondering why the
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: line is dropped from fifteen to eleven and a half
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: here and the money is coming in in Oregon. Maybe
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know, if there's some injury on the Gonzaga side.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: I don't really pay attention to the personnel in college basketball,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: which maybe I should, but I'm way up in college
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: basketball this year. So whatever, fifty percent of tickets on Gonzaga,
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the cous on Oregon. So the
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: money is saying Oregon. But that line has really dropped
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: quite a bit. Man. Gonzaga is definitely still the way
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: better team, but maybe some of the professionals are saying, hey,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Oregon's just not really as bad as they look. I
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't even know if I buy it,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: to be honest, all right, And then we have whatever
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: the hell is going on in El Paso, Texas. Irvine,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: you see Irvine in North Dakota State are playing in
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: the Sun Bowl Invitational. The Sun Bowl football game has
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: not been played yet, but it will be played in
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: l pass of course at the sun Bowl Football Stadium.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: I you see, Irvine is coming off a game where
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: I can't believe they were that bad. I mean, I
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: know Belmont is good, but man, they got absolutely wrecked
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: by Bellmont in that game. I thought it was gonna
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: be a competitive game. But coming up of that, maybe
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Irvine comes out with some intensity because that was such
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: a bad loss for North Dakota State. They're coming into
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: this game with some momentum as well, though, winning five
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: games in a row and beating some non Division one teams,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: so they're not exactly in a terrible spot here. But
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: I'd probably lean towards Irvine just because they look so
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: bad in the last game, and it looks like the
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: public is on North Dakota State here, even though they're
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: an underdog. The oddsmakers are telling you Irvine is a
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: slightly better team, sixty seven percent of tickets and fifty
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on North Dakota State. They're
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: looking like a public underdog here, And you know me,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: I don't like public underdogs, So I think I would
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: lay it with UC Irvine in that game if I
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: was gonna play it. And then we do have Zach,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: these are your guys, right or no, Nate right? Why
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: do I get you guys confused? Zach and Nate? I apologize.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: I apologize Nate's guys. With Nebraska playing at eight pm
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: on Big ten Network, Nebraska's still undefeated playing North Dakota here, Nebraska,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: they're coming off two huge wins though, or multiple three
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: huge wins. They beat in State little brother, if you
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: want to call them at Creighton beat them by twenty one.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: I know Nebraska was favored, but very satisfying win there.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: Then they crushed Wisconsin in a game where I thought
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin had a good shot to win that game. Nope,
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Nebraska wins my thirty. Then I gave out a play
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: laying the points with Illinois last week. I'm telling you
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Nebraska is not as good as people think they are.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: And no, Nebraska won that game out right too. Is
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: an eleven point dog in that game. Coming up that
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: run of games, you gotta think they're in somewhat of
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot here, man. So if you're gonna play it,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: I think the only way to play is to take
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: the points with North Dakota. But North Dakota just pulled
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: out a nice upset themselves against Wins threw up, although
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: of course they're gonna try to step it up for
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: a game against Nebraska. They've already played a bunch of
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: games on the road, including they've actually already been to
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: the state of Nebraska and they played at Creighton. They
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: lost by fifteen, which for a team like North Dakota
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: that's not that bad of a result, So maybe they
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: can hang within this number. I worry a little bit
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: because they're coming off that upset, but that run of
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: games that Nebraska's coming off of, yeah, I mean it's
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Nebraska. They're down from thirty to
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: twenty nine and a half here, sixty seven percent of
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety seven percent of the cash on Nebraska, so
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: the money is kind of saying Nebraska. But I would
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: take the points. Nebraska does play somewhat fast, so they're
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: actually kind of more of a mid tempo team now.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: But I don't really know if they're gonna have a
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: reason to really push the pace here in a game
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: that they should easily win even if they don't give
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: a full effort. But I think North Dakota plus the
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: points is the move there. And then we have Norfolk
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: State at UTEP also at olpass so of course UTEP
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: has to be involved that there's a tournament going on
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: in La Passo here. Norfolk State just ended a lost
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: sting of the win over Jackson stayed our favorite team,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: so that's gonna give them some new momentum break that
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: losing momentum coming into this game. So I don't mind
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: that for Norfolk State. They've already played in Texas as well,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: so it's not gonna be a horrible travel spot. Really.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: They've played in this area of the country a bit.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: They played at Arizona, they played at Baylor, they did
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: play at Wyoming and actually didn't play that badly in
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: that game, so I guess give you know way that information. Accordingly,
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: UTEP is in a bad spot though. Man, they just
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: were out in Hawaii. They've probably had significant time off
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: after this, but they played really tough at Hawaii. Hawaii
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: was a big favorite in that game, and UTEP almost
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: pulled off an upset in that game that would have
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: been huge. Now, yeah, I mean they've only had eight
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: days off or seven days off, so that was last Saturday.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: So coming back to the mainland from that, it's a
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: bit difficult, man, And then UTEP starts conference play on Monday,
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: December twenty nine, so it's not a good spot for UTEP.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: So actually this is close to a play for me.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: I would I would take the points with Norfolk State
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: in this one. Utub up from five and a half
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: to seven, sixty seven percent of tickets eighty five percent
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Norfolk. It is a low total
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: of one thirty three, so the points mean even more.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: I don't mind it, man, And this one is actually
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: this is close. I mean UTEP plays really really slow.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: They're way better defensively than offensively, so they do not
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: profile as a team that you want to lay points with. Really.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: They face a really difficult schedule, though UTEP has, but
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: the spot is really difficult for them. So yeah, I
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: would take the points with Norfolk State. Close to being
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: a play for me, but I'll stick with my two
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: plays today. Hopefully we continue winning. All right, let's go
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: to NHL here one afternoon game Washington at Detroit. Now
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: Detroit just one at Washington five to two yesterday. But
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: if you I believe it was yesterday, if you dig
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: into this box score, I don't know if it was
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: exactly what it looked like. Washington did fall behind four
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: to nothing, and they did come back and make it
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: four to two. There was an empty net goal at
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: the end. Looking at the stats though, I mean, yeah,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Detroit did outshoot Washington a ton, which isn't a good
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: signe That means Detroit did have way more opportunities there.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: But Washington was the way more physical team though, out
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: hitting Detroit thirty two to ten and winning the face
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: off battle pretty significantly fifty seven percent. So weird box
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: score in this game to be looking at here. But
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: all that being said, I think the zigzag is appropriate
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: in this game, which is that when you have an
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: outlier result like that were Washington was a big favorite
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: at home and they lost that game out right, the
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: move is to then if those teams are playing again
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: right away, the move is to go with the better
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: team to make the adjustments, which is Washington, Whereas if
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: you're Detroit, you have no adjustments to make after that
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: really good win that you had, So I like Washington
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: in this game. Coming off of that, I think the
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: zigzag is definitely the way to look in one. Detroit
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: is actually public after what happened yesterday apparently sixty four
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, sixty four percent of the cash. They're
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: up from minus one ten to minus one fourteen. The
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are still telling you because they're not even giving
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Detroit full home ice. They're telling you Washington is still
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: the better team. I don't disagree with that. I think
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Washington is the right side in that game. If I
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: was gonna play it, it's not on my card, but
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: it's close. Like if I was gonna add another hockey
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: played today, it probably would be that one on Washington.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: Colorado at Minnesota, this is an interesting one. It's a
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: big game. Minnesota's hot. Colorado is probably the best team
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: in the NHL. Colorado played two days ago and beat Winnipeg.
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: Now they have this single road game at Minnesota, but
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna overlook Minnesota. Also, Minnesota is one of
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: the few teams that beat Colorado this year. It was
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: not one of the regulation losses, but Minnesota beat Colorado
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: in a shootout at Minnesota back on November twenty eighth,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: So Colorado maybe has some adjustments to make off of that.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: Returning to the scene of the crime, they're coming in
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: with them with momentum. They just beat Winnipeg, but it
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: wasn't an impressive win really. I think it was against
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: Hella Book though with him back. But still, I think
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Colorado's coming into this with momentum. I think they're gonna
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: focus on this one. Minnesota. They might look a little
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: bit too good right now. Man, they played yesterday, so
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: they're on a back to back, staying at home. They
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: were in Columbus on Thursday too and beat us I
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: think getting a win there too. They're on a ridiculous
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: run right now. The run might end here. Man, on
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: the back to back, coming off beating the team that
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: won the conference last year. Yeah, they're gonna step it
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: up for a game against Colorado too, but they might
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: not have that much left in the tank at this point. Man,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: Colorado's gotten a little bit of rest or as Minnesota
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: does not. For some reason, the money looks like it's
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: same Minnesota in this game, but I do not agree Colorado.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are telling you something by lining Colorado's a
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: significant road favorite fifty four percent of tickets and only
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: fifty one percent of the cash on them, though, and
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: they've dropped from minus one seventy five to minus one
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: sixty three, So the money is saying Minnesota the market
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: read is right now, but I kind of disagree with it.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: I would maybe find some way to play Colorado in
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: that game, and maybe it would be Colorado over a
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: team total or something like that, because yeah, I mean,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: it looks like the money's coming in on the under
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: in that game though to some extent. But I don't know, man,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: I mean Colorado. I would look to maybe find some
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: way to play them, maybe make your own puck line
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: then or regulation win because usually when Colorado wins, they
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: usually do it in regulation, so maybe that's the way
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: to go in that one. I don't love the regulation
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: plays though they have not been kind to me this year.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Ottawa at my Boston Bruins, Ugh, man, I mean Ottawa
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: did not play or no, they did play yesterday, my mistake.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: They beat Chicago yesterday. Now, single road single game road
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: trip to Boston. A little bit of a weird spot
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: to have a single game road trip. But they're not
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: gonna be overconfident after beating Chicago, so I think they're
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: gonna show up here. Oh, Mark will be back in
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: net for Ottawa here, whereas Boston my Bruins, They're probably
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: gonna use Corpus salo here. They used swam in again yesterday,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: and they lost in a shootout to Vancouver yesterday. Though,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: so the Bruins are staying at home, so there are
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: some aspects of this that are better for the Bruins
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: staying at home. That was an ugly loss to Vancouver. Man,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: the Bruins were the better team in this game. If
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: you look at what happened in this game, it was
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: pretty much bullshit. The Bruins outshot Vancouver forty two to
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: twenty two in the game, and it was a close
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: game the whole way. They had sixty one percent face
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: off wins. They were somehow a little bit less physical
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: than Vancouver, and the Bruins usually known for their physicality.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: But the Bruins really were the better team in the game.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: And they wind up losing in a shootout might piss
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: them off a little bit. Probably, they'll still show up here.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Audawa's gonna have the goaltending advantage in this game, though
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: the Bruins have the I think some of the situational
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: edge here. Difficult game to handicap. Man. The money is
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: saying the Bruins they're a home dog here. Ottawa's minus
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: won thirty five sixty percent of ticket sixty eight percent
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Bruins, man, I mean, I
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: guess I kind of have to lean towards the Bruins
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: just because they're staying at home off of a misleading
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: loss to a bad team. But I don't love it.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are somewhat in positive spots there,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: so I'm not gonna touch it. Andy Moog, Yeah, what
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: happened to that guy? Or Andy Mogue? How do you
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: pronounce it? I don't even remember how he pronounced his name?
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: Under in Rangers Predators? Maybe I mean the Rangers. I
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: do talk about how they their goaltending tends to be
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: pretty good, but that's a total of six and a half,
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: and I don't know, you know what I say about
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: the six and a half. It's the highest total that
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: you see in hockey, so usually the high totals usually
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: want to go over in those games. Buffalo at New Jersey, Buffalo,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: if ESPN will cooperate here this fucking website, man, Buffalo,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: nice shootout win yesterday against the Islanders, So Buffalo, I mean,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: they're on a nice five game win streak, but most
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: of the wins are against kind of weak teams. I
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: don't know if I don't think I really consider Philadelphia
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: to be that good, even though the record is good.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Decent win over the Islanders though yesterday, and now they're
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: going out on the road to fase New Jersey. Although
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: it is a quick trip from Queens to New Jersey here,
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: so not that bad for it being a back to back.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: They do have momentum. I don't think they're really gonna
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: overlook New Jersey though, because New Jersey is still a
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: solid team. New Jersey have kind of righted the ship recently,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: but they were turning on from a road trip they
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: did have yesterday off. It was a quick road trip
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: though it was only Wednesday Friday, but they played well
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: at Vegas. They won. That was a win for us
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: on the show with the Devils. Of course, we've got
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: that win there the Devil, buddy or number one, you
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: mean any for the Devil? The Devil there, all right,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: and then they beat Utah as well in elevation. So
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: returning from that maybe a little bit more of a
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: difficult spot here. Yeah, I mean, even though Buffalo is
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: on the back to back, I mean, you can tell
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: why I'm not playing this game. The money is kind
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: of all coming in a Buffalo though, and I guess
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna disagree with it. I think it's a
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: little bit more negative of a spot for New Jersey.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: Fifty of the tickets around New Jersey, eighty two percent
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: of the casual on Buffalo, New Jersey dropped for minus
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: one forty one thirty six there, So probably I'm gonna
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: lean towards Buffalo with the market there. Montreal and Pittsburgh
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: this is another zigzag, but I think it's weaker than
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: the other one. I like Washington more than I like
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh here because this one is a game where the
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: home team won yesterday rather than the road team yesterday.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: The road team won with the Detroit Washington situation, so
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: I like that quick road reversal better. But I do
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: still like Pittsburgh here. Montreal won four to nothing yesterday
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, and I do talk about it. When a
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: team loses by four plus goals, usually they do bounce
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: back in the next game. Of course, Pittsburgh is gonna
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: be the team to make the adjustments after they lost
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: four to nothing. If you look at this game, it
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: was kind of misleading as well. Pittsburgh had ten more shots,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: although part of that is because they were losing the game,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: but they also were more physical. They had more hits
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: than one sixty one percent of the faceoffs almost so
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh was kind of the better team in the game
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: in a lot of ways, doesn't show on the score boards.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: That does make me look like Pittsburgh a bit more
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: here in this one. This game is gonna be at Pittsburgh,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: of course. I mean, I think both teams will show
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: up for just like with the Washington and Detroit situation.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: But again, I would go with the zig Zag in
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: this one. Again, I would go with Pittsburgh in this one.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: They're off of minus one seventeen to minus one eighteen
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: in the money line. Montreal is one of those dreaded
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: public dogs here sixty four percent of tickets and only
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the cash. So I would I
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: would go with Pittsburgh in this game. Uh yeah the
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: market Reid says that as well. Is there is there
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: time for the Penguins to make adjustments? Yeah, I mean,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: I mean this is the classic Zigzag spot. Yeah, Like,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: if you're Montreal, you're just gonna like get complacent almost
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: because like you can't do anything because you just won
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: the previous games. You don't have anything to work on.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Whereas yeah, I mean, dude, like teams make adjustments during games,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: like at halftime and stuff. So yeah, definitely yeah. Fuck
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: the Bears. No, I don't give them credit, dude, How
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: do they win that game? Jordan Love got hurt and
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: missed half of the game. The Bears didn't even have
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: a touchdown in the game until the final minute of
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: the game. They had to recover an on side kick
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: and score t twis in the final two minutes to
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: even send the game into overtime. And then Green Bay
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: was driving an overtime but they had a backup center
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: and backup quarterback in and they fumble the football over
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: when they were about to score and retake the lead. Again. No,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: I do not give them credit. The win was absolute bullshit.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: It's one of the most again, one of the most
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: misleading wins that you'll see. The Bears are not good, dude,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm continuing to say that. No, no, absolutely
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: not being more lucky than good. It's like saying that
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: you rather rely on entirely luck when betting. No, you
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: gotta do like a post mortem here and look at like,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: why did I win this one? Why did I lose
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: this one? Was it legitimate? Was it not? Like I'm
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: gonna admit when I got lucky when I was on
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: the wrong side, and I'm gonna point it out when
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: I got unlucky and I was on the right side
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: and still lost. No, the Bears are in for just
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: an epic, epic disaster. That team is absolute garbage. Caleb
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: Williams sucks dick to literally and figuratively. I don't know
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: what happened with the Redskins. Mariota got hurt, Dude, I'm
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: not dude, fuck all of that. I lost both of
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: my picks in my picking pools yesterday because both quarterbacks
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: went down. I don't know who the fuck is even
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: the backup for Mariota. It's all such absolute bullshit, Like
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: both of those teams would have covered if the quarterbacks
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: just stayed in the game, and Green Bay was gonna
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: win anyway, even with Malik Willis. Malik Willis was alright
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: in the game, and he played fine last year as
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: well when he had to come in. They're not gonna
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: get blown out at home, but they are gonna lose
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: the Bears. They're gonna lose the They're definitely gonna lose
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: the first game in the playoffs, and I'm going to
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: be probably betting against them in that one. And I
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: don't even care what it is. It's it's gonna make
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: sense to go against them, all right. New York Rangers
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: at Nashville. Oh, we have the Rangers on the road.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: There you go. Although I actually kind of don't like
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: the Rangers in this game. Rangers coming off a five
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: to four shootout yesterday, so I will say that because
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: they're on the back to back, they're probably gonna use
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: Quick here, who is still the lesser of their two goalies.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: The defense might be a little bit less rested because
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: they did have to play yesterday. So well, actually, yeah,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: so my read on this game being more of an
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: over type of game, Yeah, I would not play the
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: under no way. Given all of that, No way, this
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: looks like more of an overspot for the Rangers. They
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: are coming off that shootout Winever Philadelphia yesterday, so they
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: might be tired here. They got a huge game against
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: Washington next so the game's kind of looking Sandwichie here,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: and they're having to travel to Nashville here with no
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: time off, even though the Rangers are better on the road.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: I think this is a Nashville spot here. Nashville they
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: also played yesterday, so yeah, what are we doing here?
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: There's no way I would play an under in this game.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: Nashville beat Toronto yesterday, pretty big win, really beating Toronto
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: staying at home. I kind of expect them to still
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: show up here. They did a multiple days off before
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: the Toronto game. You're probably gonna have a noon in
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: net here. So again, do you really want to play
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: the under with two backup goalies in net here? The
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: second string goalies are both gonna be playing here. No,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: I would go over in this game. But I also
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: lean to to the Predators in this game the sex
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: offenders and the money seems to agree with that. Sixty
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: one percent of the tickets and fifty eight percent of
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Rangers. They're down for minus one
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: twenty four to minus one fourteen on the money line here.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: I would play Nashville if I was gonna play this one.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: And yeah, the money is coming in on the under
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: for what it's worth, but I disagree with that. But
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: what do I know about totals, although my reads on
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: the totals have been decent when I've had opinions on
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: them recently. So do with that information what you want.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: But I'm trying to save you from a loser there.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: Toronto against Dallas here. Toronto played yesterday. Toronto's in a
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: difficult spot. Man. They're playing three games in four days,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: all in different cities, including a back to back going
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: from Nashville to Dallas here. They did lose both of
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: those previous two games, though they'll probably still try to
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: show up because it's Dallas. I mean, you're not gonna
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: overlook a team like Dallas if you're gonna fade Toronto
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: here would be more because they're tired for Dallas. They
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: didn't play yesterday. They're still playing a third game in
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: four days, all in different cities. They are turning over
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: the Pacific coast, although they only were on the Pacific
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: Coast for a couple of days, so it's not really
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: that big of a deal, not like a full road
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: trip return spot here. But yeah, I mean this is
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: this is definitely a difficult game to read. The money
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: is saying Dallas they are the better team and the
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: more rested team. Here sixty five percent of tickets eighty
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on them, but they're at
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: minus two pho five now on the money line, I mean,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: if you want to play Dallas, maybe you do. I
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: wouldn't even want to say like a puck line, because
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: Dallas likes to play a lot of lower scoring games too,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how I would want to do that. Man.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: Maybe I mean, do you want to go Toronto under
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: their team total? I mean maybe. I mean, it looks
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: like the money on this one looks like it might
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: be coming in in the under. And I don't hate
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: this one as much as far as it being low
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: scoring because Dallas plays lower scoring games and the rest
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: it here, So I could see Toronto struggling in that game.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg at Utah. Winnipeg coming off a close game against Colorado, Man,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: so that was a big game, and now they're playing
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: a second straight game in elevation, although they did not
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: play yesterday, but that was still a big game against Colorado.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: And they got Minnesota next after Christmas and then Edmonton,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: so it's possibly they overlook Utah in the spot here.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: For Utah, they're coming off a pretty difficult game as
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: well though, where they just played New Jersey and they
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: have Colorado next before Christmas, so it almost kind of
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: looks like a sandwich spot that Utah is into after
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: that close game against New Jerseys. So I can't get
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: there with either side of though. For Utah, they did
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: return on from a road trip and take that loss.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: So I talk about when a team returns over from
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: a road trip, they can fall into a distracted spot
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: and then sometimes they will play better in the next
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: game if they don't do well in that first game.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: Money is where's the money on this one? Where am
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: I looking? The money is all over Winnipeg in this one,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: But I I slightly disagree. Utah down for minus one
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: twenty to minus one sixteen fifty seven percent of the
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: tickets on them eighty six percent of the cash on Winnipeg. Yeah,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: I kind of disagree with it. I kind of need
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: towards Utah there, but I don't love it either way.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: But guess what that means, SOB because now we were
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: finally down to the last hockey game, and you know,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: I have one hockey play and here it is. Yeah,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: SOB is is definitely spying on mean, we're on the
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: Vegas Golden Knights money line in this one against Edmonton.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: Edmonton's not in a good spot here man, Edmonton. They're
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: coming off losing to Minnesota. I know it was a
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: pretty bad loss five to two, while the Minnesota's fairly good.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: But that was a step up game for Edmonton. But
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: look at what Edmonton's in. Yeah, they're in the return
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: home spot. They've been on the road since Saturday, December thirteenth.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: They went all the way up to eastern Canada. They
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: were on the East coast in the northeast, came back
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota. Now they're back home and they're traveling back
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: from Minnesota with no time off. They're playing a third
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: game in four days, a fourth game in six days,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: fifth game in eight days, and actually a sixth game
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: in nine days, all in different cities, and a seventh
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: game in eleven days if you include their home game
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: before they went out on the road. This is a
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: bad spot, man, a bad rest spot for them. And
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: when you return on from a road trip again, I
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: talk about how sometimes you will be in a bit
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: of a distracted spot. Although I know it is Vegas,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: like you're still gonna maybe want to try to show
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: up for a game against Vegas. I know next we
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: only have a game against Calgary, but Calgary and Edmonton
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: is still a thing, man. I mean their rivals in Alberta,
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: so there is that, even though Calgary is not that good.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: So I could definitely see Edmonton falling into a bit
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: of a distracted spot here. The rest situation is not
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: good at all. I know Vegas has the better record,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: so it almost looks too easy to play them. Vegas
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: just took an ugly loss to Calgary yesterday, so yeah,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: they're not rested either, but they're having less travel because
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: they're already in Alberta, so they're just going from Calgary
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: to Edmonton. Which I know it's a big province whatever,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: it's not that close, but still they're already in that area.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: Losing to Calgary is just an ugly loss, man. I
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: think it was kind of a sandwich spot really, because
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: they had a bigger game against New Jersey the game
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: before that went into a shootout, and they had this
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: Edmonton game looming the next day, so you know they
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: were looking ahead to this game not only because it's Edmonton,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: but as Sob I think pointed out yesterday, maybe it
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: was Jeffrey, one of you guys pointed out, this is
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: playoff revel man. Edmonton is a team that knocked Vegas
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: out of the playoffs last year, and they haven't played
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: yet this year, believe it or not, this deep into
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: the season. So Vegas absolutely has this game circled. I
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: think they looked right past Calgary looking towards this game.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: You're gonna get a huge effort from Vegas in this game.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: In my opinion. Vegas again also had more rest prior
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: to that Calgary game, so in that same stretch they've
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: played fewer games than than Edmonton has. We're gonna do it.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be on the Vegas Knights here. The money
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: is kind of on the Edmonton side right now, even
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: though they dropped for minus one fifty one thirty five,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the tickets sixty three percent of the
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: cash on them for now. But the game's on until
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: eight pm either or so. I think Vegas is the
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: right side and that one and that is the way
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: that we're playing it. Vegas money line, dirty sock, what's
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: up man? Rangers and Nationale both had to rally yet
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: to come back. That makes me like the over even
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: more in the game today because that means they put
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: an even more effort. The tiredness affects the defense more
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: than the offense. But I agree with you. The both
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: teams scored a lot yesterday, so in that respect, yeah,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you think that the line is too
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: high because of that and you want to fade it
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: for that reason, maybe, But the oddsmakers are putting out
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: a high total for I think another reason than that
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: at six and a half. So no, I don't reveal
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: my first name online, and I get pissed when people
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: say it because they're I mean, people do know what
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: it is, dirty sock? What's up? Man? All right? Uh? NBA?
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: And then I will do the final market read for
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: the NFL, and then I'll get out of here. Not
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: too long of a show here, Chicago at Atlanta. This
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: is close to a play for me. I got two
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: NBA plays today. This is not one of them, but
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: I'm close to doing it because Chicago. They weren't a
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: letdown spot too. They just swept a home and home
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: against the Cleveland Calves. I know the Calves have had
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: some injuries and whatever, but I thought the Calves would
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: bounce back on Friday with the home game, and not
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: only did they not cover, they didn't even win. So
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: Chicago's coming off two huge wins in a row against
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and now they're going to Atlanta. They're gonna have
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: to play Atlanta twice here. But I think it is
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot, just kind of a classic letdown spot.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: Atlanta just got pummeled by San Antonio and they're just
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: staying at home after that, So I kind of like
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: how the spot sets up better for Atlanta for that
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: reason too. And they had a bad loss at Charlotte
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: the game before that too. I know San Antonio is
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: pretty good, but losing to them one hundred and twenty
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: six to ninety eight is ridiculous. So almost a thirty
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: point loss for the Hawks here. I expect the Hawks
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: to bounce back from that. I like the Hawks in
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: this one. The public is not even gonna be on
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: them because they have to lay points with the Hawks.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it's kind of disagreeing with it,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: but I would only lay the points here. Hawks are
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: up to a five point favorite, eighty five percent of
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: the tickets, only eighty percent of the cash on them,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: though the market read early is indicating against them. But
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: I seriously, I think the only way that you could
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: look at this game is to lay it with Atlanta
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: the way that that spot sets up. Thank you, sir, Jeffrey.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: Did you see my show last night? If you want
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: my NFL plays, they're on They're on the I you
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: know I had them on the show last night. I'm
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about them again at the end. You can
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: check out my Instagram for it too. But I'm also
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: gonna give up two more NBA plays as well here
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: or two NBA plays. I mean Toronto at Brooklyn, sob
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: is I guess the Brooklyn net whisperer or whatever. I'm
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: not gonna get involved in this one. Toronto did just
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: play yesterday and now they're traveling, so that's a little
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: bit difficult. They got wrecked by my boss at Celtics yesterday.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: I didn't love the spot for the Celtics yesterday, but
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: I said that the market was kind of telling you
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: something by lining the Celtics as a favorite on the road.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: The Celtics won in a blowout, man, so Toronto's off
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: of that. So in a way I could see Toronto
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: maybe bouncing back and it maybe being a good thing
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: to just leave home and go focus on a road.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: But Celtics are a big that's a big game, man,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: the Celtics, and they do a Miami next too, so
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: I could also kind of see maybe an argument for
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: this being a sandwich. Although yesterday was a blowout, so
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn is way more rested though they're staying at home.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: They just lost to Miami at home, so the spot
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: does set up better for Brooklyn here, so that would
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: be the way that I would still lean here. I
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: don't love it. Also, you got to figure out what's
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: going on with this line because Toronto dropped from seven
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: and a half to three and a half, so there's
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: some reason for that line move. There's gotta be some
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: injury situation or something. Nine take it's ninety three percent
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the rap. There's those of the
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: public is all over Toronto. But if Toronto's in an
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: injured player theory spot, you might argue that that line
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: moved too much. Barrett has already been out though, so
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: I don't really see anything that's really driving that line
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: move because again Barrett, he's one of the better players
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: for Toronto, but he's been out for a while. I believe,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: So I don't think that's the reason for the move.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: So I don't really understand what's going on here. I'll
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: let me make sure of that. Actually, where are you Barrett?
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Yeah, he's been out since late November.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: So yeah, so I don't know what is causing that
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: line move, but I think, yeah, the spot it makes
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: more sense for Brooklyn, Miami at the Knicks. Miami here,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: they're coming in off the loss of the Celtics on Friday,
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: but Miami was in that game. The Celtics just started
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: raining threes late in the game and that's how they
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: wound up winning by thirteen. It was like a one
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: point game early in the fourth quarter. Difficult game from
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: Miami there. Now they got to turn around and play
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: a third road game in four days, which is not
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: that easy to do. Although it's all in Boston and
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: New York. They're still going to try to step it
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: up for the Knicks though, So the worry for Miami
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: is how tired are they gonna get because they're still
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: gonna show up for a game against New York. Knicks
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: still might be the best team in the conference. The
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: Knicks are coming off a fairly ugly loss to the
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: Sixers Philadelphia U seventy six ers. Yeah, you guys can
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: go watch my show or I played that whole song
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: as part of the intro yesterday. Now, in a way,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: you could argue this will be a bounce back for
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: the Knicks after that, but you could also argue they're
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be in a hangover spot because when a team
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: loses a long wind streak like that, sometimes they'll lose
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: the game twice effectively and lose again the next game.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: And they do play Minnesota on the road, and then
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: they have to play Cleveland on Christmas on the NBA
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: Christmas Lineup on ESPN. So definitely, I could argue that
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: it's a look ahead here. But the public is on
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: the Heat side for some reason, as the dog eighty
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: three percent of the ticket, sixty one percent of the
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: cash on the Heat Knicks down from an eight point
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: favorite to a seven point favorite, So the money is
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: kind of saying to lay the points to the Knicks.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: I don't really agree. I don't really want to fade
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: a market read like that. I don't want to be
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: in a public underdog like that. But I don't know.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: To me, the spot looks a little bit better from Miami,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: but it's not great for either team really, san Antonio
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: at Washington. San Antonio just crushed Washington two games ago,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: and that was a loss for us on the show.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: I know, I thought it was a good spot to
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: fade san Antonio. Didn't work out. They came off of
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: that game and they crushed Atlanta as well. Now they're
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: in a spot where they play Oklahoma City twice after
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: this on Tuesday and then again on Christmas. So I
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: do think that they look right past Washington here. It's
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for san Antonio. Washington. The problem is
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: speaking of playing Washington, Yeah, we had them yesterday. That
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: was our only NBA play on the show yesterday, and
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: they won out right as giant underdogs at Memphis. So
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think I want to play Washington here either. Man.
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: And they're returning home from a road trip that they've
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: been on for a week. And I talk about how
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: when teams return on from road trips, especially bad teams
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: like Washington, it can kind of be a bad spot
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: and they can kind of get into a distracted spot.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: I know they shouldn't be when they're playing a good
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: San Antonio team that just embarrassed them two games ago.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: But I just can't get there with it, man, having
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: to step up their game two games in a row
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: like this, with travel in the return home spot on
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: a back to back, I'm gonna stay away. And the
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: money is actually saying spurs here. They're up from fourteen
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: and a half to fifteen and a half. The Wizards
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: look like they're a public underdog. I don't even see
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: how that's possible, Like what public vetters are coming in
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: and playing Washington eighty three percent of the tickets and
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: only sixty five percent of the cash. I don't buy it.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: I mean I would still probably lean to Washington here,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: but I can't do it. So that means that it's
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: best bet time for the NBA because it leaves the
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: last two I told you I have two plays. Oh yeah,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: we're getting ugly, you know, I mean, you know me.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: We're ugly last night with Washington as well. We're ugly
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: all the time on this show. I'm ugly. The players
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: are ugly, but they win. So let's get some more
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: winners today. Man. This first one up is Milwaukee at Minnesota.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee without Yannis. Yeah, we're gonna do it. We're gonna
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: take Milwaukee plus the points we won with Milwaukee against
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: my boss and Celtics not that long ago, So there
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: is precedent for Milwaukee to play some good games in here.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's had two days off. Man, if you're losing at
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: home to Toronto starting a road trip, I like a
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: spot like that. Man, when you have multiple days off
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: to try to break your losing momentum you start a
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: road trip. I think it's gonna be a lot of them.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of indicators that should be a
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: focused spot for Milwaukee here. Man, going out on the road.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: They know they're not gonna have Yannis back, so they
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: are learning to play without him. You know. I think
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: they're gonna show up in this game. And from Minnesota,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: this is a bad spot for them. Man, Minnesota just
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: pulled off the upset of Oklahoma City on Friday. Monster
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: win from Minnesota there. Now they get the Bucks and
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: up next they gotta play the Knicks, who are probably
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: the best team in the East, who just won the
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: NBA Cup. And then on Christmas they got to go
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: to Denver and play Denver. So this is absolutely a
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot. This is a giant sandwich spot here, and
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: we're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna buy some of that. Man,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: We're gonna, we're gonna eat this sandwich and hopefully, hopefully
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: it winds up tasting good in the end. Hopefully these
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: sandwiches don't leave us with a bad aftertaste, because I
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: like this one. We're gonna take the Milwaukee Bucks tea
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: Wolves twelve point favorite now twelve twelve and a half
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: either way, hopefully there's not a difference between those two
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the tickets eighty six percent of
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Bucks. To me, it looks like
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: the market read is saying the Bucks for now. I
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: think that maybe just we don't really see the full
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: fully fleshed out market here, but I'm going based off
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: of my situational read, and it is all pointing in
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: the direction of Milwaukee. In this game, we're getting a
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: ton of points. Let's do it. We're gonna take Milwaukee there,
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: and then we're getting probably even uglier with this next one,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: where we're gonna be on a team that has a
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: similar market read here, and that is the Sacramento Kings
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: plus the twelve. The Rockets are up from an eleven
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: point favorite to a twelve point favorite here. This is
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: at Sacramento, so we're getting a home dog in this one.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: Eighty one percent of the tickets, eighty five percent of
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: the cash. Gotta go with your home dogs, baby. The
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: totals all the way down to two twenty three and
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: a half, so it is a somewhat low NBA total,
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: So I like taking points with low totals too. Both
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: of these totals, by the way, are in the two twenties,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: so a little bit better for playing underdogs in games
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: like that. Right now, it looks like the money is
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: kind of on the Kings here though. It looks like
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: the ticket percentage also is in both of these market
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: reads right now. But again, it's all about reading the spot.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: And look at the spot that Houston is in. Man,
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: Houston's on a back to back, and what do they do. Yesterday?
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: They beat the Denver Nuggets. Huge win for Houston, finally
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: getting it done against the Nuggets. They lost I think
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: twice to the Nuggets this year, already, huge win for
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: Houston in what might be a battle of who's gonna
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: be the second best team in the NBA. Basically huge win.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming off of that with no time off,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: having to go out of elevation to the Pacific Coast
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: to play this Sacramento team that's not only awful, but
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: Houston already just beat them on December third, one hundred
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: and twenty one to ninety five at Houston, so I
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: don't really see them paying much attention here. Then they
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: go down to LA, and yeah, they play the Clippers first,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: but they're gonna be in LA for Christmas because they
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: got to play the Lakers on ESPN on Christmas, so
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: I think it's just kind of a it's an LA
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: trip really there. So I do not like the spot
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: at all for Houston. And to make matters worse by
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: the way, they're playing a third game in four d
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: A's and the prior game went into overtime. Although I
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: know that was a game where they lost as a
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: big favor and we got the win on the Pelicans
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: on the show on that one, still an overtime game.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: And the prior game on Monday was in elevation in
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: overtime in Denver, so they were in elevation on Monday,
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: took Denver into overtime. We lost on the show on
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: that game, and should enough because there was a bad
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: foul called it ended the game for Houston. Then Houston
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: had to go to New Orleans and then they had
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: to go back into elevation to Denver, now out to
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast. Very very difficult spot here for Sacramento.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: On the other hand, the spot is better for them.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: Even though they played yesterday. They were in kind of
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: a return home spot yesterday because they had played at
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and at Portland, but prior to Thursday, they had
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: had three days off, so Sacramento is the more rested
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: team here, even though yes, they did play one overtime
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: game on Thursday at Portland, but not multiple overtime games
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: in a row like Houston is done and Sacramento took
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: a loss at home. And I talked about how when
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: a team returns over from a road trip, even though
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: in this case it was a short road trip, sometimes
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: they bounce back after they lose in that game, like
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: if they have a distracted performance in that game, which
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: they did lose to Portland twice in a row. I
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: thought they might beat them that time, but they had
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: this big game on deck against Houston. Man, I expect
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: Sacramento to show up here against Houston, against the team
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: that just embarrassed them kind of a team. It's one
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: of the best teams in the West. We're gonna go
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: with it, man, Sacramento. People might also look at the
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: fact that Sacramento just lost by thirty one at home
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: to Denver and Houston almost just beat Denver twice and
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: did beat them once, so it almost looks way too easy.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: I think to lay the points with Houston here, we're
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: not gonna do it. We're gonna take the Sacramento Kings
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: plus the points, and that is gonna do it. Other
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: than my NFL plays, which if you saw my show
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: last night, we have the Giants plus two and a half,
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: but I said, wait to get the three. I think
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: you will probably find a three. We'll look in a
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: second to make sure Dallas minus the one and a
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: half minus two, or if you want to go money
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: line with it, you could do that too, and Arizona
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: plus the three. I'm pretty sure you can find a
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: three out there. On Arizona. It looked a little bit
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: juiced on the plus three last night, but I think
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: you'll be able to find it now. Final market read
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: run through for the NFL. I like the Browns, even
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: though right now it looks like the money the cash
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: percentage is a little bit on the bills here, but
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: bills are extremely public. They're in a horrible spot. As
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: I pointed out last night, I would only take the
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: points of the Browns there. The money still looks like
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: it's on the Saints, but I think I would still
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: fade the Saints. I just I can't get on board
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: with the Saints being a touchdown favorite against anybody. The
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Giants, as we saw,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: and hopefully we can get the three on that. But
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: I like it anyway, even at two and a half.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: But I think you'll be able to get the three there.
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: So the market is saying Giants, market is still saying Ravens,
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: which I agree with. Buccaneers and Panthers is a difficult
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: market readman. I kind of lean to the Bucks in
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: that one as for now, but I'm gonna have to
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: watch the market until game time on that one. It
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: looks like maybe the market read is gonna turn out
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: to be still on the Bucks here, but we'll see.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: The market read is pretty heavily on taking the points
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: with the Titans going with the Chiefs being in the
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: dream crusher even though they are also in the injured
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: player theory spot. So we'll see what happens there. Cowboys,
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: actually the line dropped. You can actually get a better
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: number on the Cowboys now, maybe minus one, minus one
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: and a half. I don't know what happened with that
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: line move, but I think it's a very strong spot
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: for the Cowboys, and you're still fading the public there,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: so I still like the Cowboys there. Obviously you can
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: get the three. It looks like on the Cardinals pretty
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: much as I said, I think you can. If not,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: you can wait up until four pm to try to
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: do it. But I like the Cardinals. Fifty the tickets
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: around the Falcons fifty four percent of the couch on
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals, So that market read still looks to be correct.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: I lean Jags against the Broncos, even though right now
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: the market read is somewhat indicating on the Broncos. But
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: I think the line value is actually on Jacksonville. We'll
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: see what that looks like when the game happens. The
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: Lions looks like they are the right side against the
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: Steelers for now, even though they are public as well.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: It looks like they're starting to go through a key
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: number of seven seven and a half now, which is
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: a that is a pretty big move, man, And I
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: think it's not really just the public that's causing that.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: So I think it makes sense to maybe be on
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: the Lions and that one, even though I mean, the
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: line just looks a little bit too high still, but
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: they seem to be the right side. The marguer Reid
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: is saying the Raiders still plus the points, and I
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: just think the line is just too high. In that
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: game on the Texans, the marguer Reid is now saying
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins coming back and fading the Bengals. So I
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: got to figure out what to do with that game.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'll agree with it because the Dolphins just looks
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: so pathetic. But you gotta worry about what is Quinn
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: you were is gonna do all The One thing I
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: didn't point out last night is that the one advantage
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: of Dolphins do have with quinn Ewers is that there's
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: no game film on him, so the defense isn't gonna
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: know what to do against him. And the good thing
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: for quinn Ewers is he gets to have his debut
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: against the worst defense in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals,
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: So that is at least one positive for quinn Ewers there,
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: So maybe I will turn it around and maybe actually
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: start leaving Dolphins in that. It's a difficult one on
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: that one. And then Monday night. We'll talk about tomorrow.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: But I kind of like the Niners the way that
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: game sets up. But it looks like they're gonna be
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: a public dreaded, public road favorite on a primetime game,
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: which normally I do not like those teams. But we
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: will see. That's gonna do it. Man plays once again.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: Giants in NFL, try to get the plus three, Dallas
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: minus one, one and a half, whatever, money line, whatever
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: you want to do there, Arizona plus the three. In
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: college basketball, run the pit money line, run Northern Arizona
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: plus the points. So I think you have to take
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: six and a half. Now. Unfortunately we're on the Vegas
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: Nights in the NHL on the money line. NBA run
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: two huge dogs with the Bucks plus the points and
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: Sacramento plus the points, and that is gonna do it.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: Thank you guys. Hell yeah you got a three on
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: the Giants. Yeah, I think you'll start seeing threes up there.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: And again this is the benefit of having as many
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: books as you can find out there, because some of
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: them are probably gonna be hanging the three at some point.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: I like it at two and a half anyway. I mean,
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: if I were to guess, I think the giants win
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: the game, but obviously I think it's better to have
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: the plus three in your pocket there and have the points. So, uh,
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: if they're giving you the points, I would say take them.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: But of course I also recommend putting ten percent of
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: the bet on the money line anyway, because if you're
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: saying they're gonna cover the plus three, they're probably gonna
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: win the game. So that's how we're gonna do it. Man,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys, I appreciate it. Thanks for hanging out. Learn
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: a Toad on Instagram, Learn it Toad on Twitter. We
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: got subscriptions over there now like subscribe, comment here on
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: the YouTube channel, listen on audio, Give me a good
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: review on audio, Apple Spotify. Covered in Uke is my
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: uke cover channel on YouTube. You can check that out
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash learn to toad bonus uke content There.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: You can check out the Loser Cast, the new comedy
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: podcast panel that I'm part of there and then at
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: some point, the g Spot the Giants podcast with me
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: and Ben Weir will start happening. I think I hope
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: we'll see that's gonna do it for now. I appreciate it, guys,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: and I'll be back tomorrow morning, I suppose, And I
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: think it'll be a light card on Monday. The Bulls
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: actually resumed tomorrow with the the Idaho famous Potato Bowl wher.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: I've gone really back and forth on that game, so
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna have a play on it. But I've
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: heard differing opinions on it. My gut instinct might be
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: wrong on it. I don't know. We'll talk about it
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: tomorrow and whatever other games. I think it'll be a
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: lightboard tomorrow. At least. That's gonna do it for now. Peace,