Latest / The Capitalism and Freedom in the Twenty-First Century Podcast / AI, Tech, Industrial Policy and Baby Equities with Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital Founder and CEO)
Transcript
- 0:10>> Jon Hartley: This is the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century podcast,
- 0:13an official podcast of the Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group
- 0:16where we talk about economics, markets and public policy.
- 0:18I'm Jon Hartley, your host.
- 0:20Today my guest is Brad Gerstner, who is the founder and CEO of Altimeter Capital,
- 0:24the Silicon Valley tech investing firm with over 10 billion in assets under
- 0:28management.
- 0:29Welcome, Brad.
- 0:31>> Brad Gerstner: Hey, Jon.
- 0:32It's great to be here.
- 0:33Huge fan of the pod, huge fan of Hoover, so thanks for having me.
- 0:38>> Jon Hartley: Well, thanks so much, Brad, for joining us.
- 0:40Before we get into technology, industrial policy, and
- 0:44all these related concepts to your expertise, I want to first get
- 0:49into your origins before you became a Silicon Valley investor.
- 0:54You're a Midwest guy in terms of where you grew up.
- 0:56You were born in Indiana, you did your BA at Wabash College, you spent some time at
- 1:00Oxford, you did your J.D at IU's law school, you worked in Washington D.C.
- 1:05you served some time as Indiana's Deputy Secretary of State.
- 1:08Then you did your MBA at Harvard Business School.
- 1:11I mean, how did you first get interested in economics, technology and investing?
- 1:15And who were some of your early heroes in that process of discovery?
- 1:19>> Brad Gerstner: Well, maybe a little bit of context because I think we're
- 1:23all byproducts of, of where we grew up and how we grew up.
- 1:27So I grew up in a small rural town in northwest Indiana.
- 1:31You know, I was coming of age in the late 70s and early 1980s.
- 1:35My dad, who was one of my early heroes, was first generation college and
- 1:40he was the general manager of a company that made auto parts and
- 1:44employed a lot of the men in this small town.
- 1:47And like was happening across America, a big corporate came to town,
- 1:52bought the company and laid off a lot of his men in 1977.
- 1:56And my dad felt this obligation to start his own company, hire them back and
- 2:01compete on making parts for the auto industry.
- 2:05But unfortunately, despite him working heroically,
- 2:09the combination of Japanese low priced cars, 13% interest rates,
- 2:1313% inflation, he just couldn't keep the credit in the business to
- 2:18keep the business going and eventually shut down.
- 2:22And so they started calling the part of the world that I was in the Rust Belt.
- 2:26It was pretty depressing.
- 2:28It all started kind of under Carter and you know, and
- 2:31the big changes came with Reagan and Volcker in 1981.
- 2:35So you have to understand that that's what I was growing.
- 2:38That's what was really going on around me.
- 2:40When I was in middle school, I started to pay attention to how the world works.
- 2:44I started to ask questions and then as I started high school,
- 2:47I found my way to the stock pages, into Adam Smith and to Milton Friedman and
- 2:52to Warren Buffett, which would start this real long journey, decade long journey.
- 2:57Really, into kind of classic liberal thinking around free market capitalism,
- 3:02around limited government, you know, and at the same time,
- 3:05my mom was working two jobs and she was sacrificing everything for our family.
- 3:10And I'll Never forget, in 1985, she shows up with this IBM 5170, right?
- 3:15Like one of the first personal computers.
- 3:17And I knew we didn't have the money to buy this computer, but
- 3:21it turns out she bought it on a payment plan that was deducted from her paycheck
- 3:25every week because my mom was just hell bent on helping, you know, the kids have
- 3:30a better journey than the one they were they were on at that point in time.
- 3:34My school newspaper in middle school that I was helping to
- 3:38edit bought its first Macintosh PC in 1985.
- 3:42And so I got introduced to these early PCs and
- 3:45then this early email network called CompuServe.
- 3:48And I realized this technology thing could be my ticket out of the Rust Belt.
- 3:53And so I just started getting really, really excited about both learning why
- 3:58the world was operating the way it did, why this happened to my dad, why
- 4:02the Reagan policies seemed to be working, and also just fascinated by technology.
- 4:09>> Jon Hartley: That's fascinating.
- 4:10And yeah, certainly Hoover.
- 4:13Milton Friedman is a big part of Hoover transformation in terms of building
- 4:18out a public policy think tank.
- 4:20And Freeman came to Hoover after he won the Nobel Prize in the late 70s.
- 4:25And then while he was here, he started really becoming more of a public
- 4:30intellectual and doing producing the Free to Choose series.
- 4:34And it's amazing to see just how many people that's influenced over the decades.
- 4:39It's awesome.
- 4:40I mean, it's very interesting how, or
- 4:43I guess just how influential that that's really been.
- 4:48So you founded altimeter capital in 2008 in the depths of the Great Recession.
- 4:55You know, Altimeter does lots of VC investing.
- 5:00It does lots of investing in public equities,
- 5:02a lot of public technology names.
- 5:04I'm just curious, like,
- 5:05what compelled you to start an investment firm in the middle of a financial crisis?
- 5:10I mean, who does that?
- 5:11And who does that so successfully?
- 5:14>> Brad Gerstner: Well, first, before, before we go there, I have to go back to
- 5:17Milton Friedman and, you know, kind of this formative period because it
- 5:21really informs the decisions I make, like with Altimeter down the line, you know.
- 5:25Of course, of course,
- 5:26the first thing I read of Milton Friedman's Was free to choose, right?
- 5:29This idea, you know, because remember in the early 1980s,
- 5:32it just felt like government was oppressive.
- 5:35Like it felt like the thing that took my dad down was, you know,
- 5:3850% tax burdens, you know, these super high interest rates.
- 5:42And so you read Free to Choose, it was all about.free markets allow for
- 5:46innovation and efficiency and personal freedom.
- 5:49And that really spoke to me, right?
- 5:52And this idea that government tends to distort incentives and
- 5:55create all these unintended consequences.
- 5:59And so that was really important to me.
- 6:03But then I kind of went backwards in order to go forwards.
- 6:06You and I have talked about your own journey and your own study, and so
- 6:10I think unpacking a little bit of that, you know, Adam Smith,
- 6:14in this wealth of nations, you know, this idea that free markets and
- 6:19competition, you know, the individual is generally pursuing, pursuing
- 6:23what's in their own economic best interest leads to the best public good, right.
- 6:29And I mean, if you think about the political machinations going on today,
- 6:33all of these things is this tension between, you know,
- 6:36kind of freedom and allowing this thing we have in the United States, right.
- 6:40What makes the United States great is not government, right?
- 6:43It's government sets the creation, the conditions for
- 6:46all of this incredible innovation that comes from our system of risk takers and
- 6:50risk capital, the very DNA of the country.
- 6:52And so, you know, and I remember the first time I read, you know,
- 6:57John Stuart Mills on Liberty, same thing, it was like this idea of,
- 7:01you know, limited government that was so appealing to me.
- 7:05And of course, when I looked at the world around me, you couldn't help but
- 7:09to pick up a newspaper again in the early 80s and you were reading about Volcker and
- 7:13what he was doing to, you know, really smash and change monetary policy and,
- 7:17you know, and bring an end to this hyperinflation.
- 7:19And of course then the debate over supply side economics, Laffer and
- 7:23the fact that, we could actually lower taxes and get higher tax revenues, right.
- 7:28And so that to me was fascinating.
- 7:33I went off to college, you mentioned at Wabash College.
- 7:37And I was lucky, you know, the reason I went to Wabash College,
- 7:39I couldn't afford college.
- 7:41I was terrified of debt.
- 7:42And they were lucky enough to give me a full ride scholarship to come study.
- 7:46They were going to pay for me to study at Oxford.
- 7:48And so I thought, I can't pass up this deal.
- 7:51And I was lucky that their economics department had a partnership with
- 7:55the University of Chicago, right?
- 7:57So that like, really unpacked.
- 7:59So when I started.
- 8:00Started studying economics there I was introduced to the likes of Gary Becker and
- 8:04applying these economic theories to better explain what was happening in society,
- 8:09which appealed to me much more than the stuff I was reading in political science
- 8:13or the stuff I was reading in philosophy or Stigler.
- 8:16I was particularly interested in the law, so Richard Posner, and this idea that,
- 8:21all the law can be explained through the lens of economic reasoning,
- 8:25and it should aim to allocate resources efficiently.
- 8:29And so then when I went off to study at Oxford, I studied PPE, right?
- 8:34Politics, philosophy, and economics.
- 8:36And there it was, just a lucky time, right?
- 8:38I dove into the works of HLA Hart, which really expanded on John Stuart Mills,
- 8:44Ronald Dworkin, who was not of the liberal economic school,
- 8:48but was exploring some really interesting things about abortion,
- 8:53euthanasia, the meaning of life, and applying economic theories to that.
- 8:58But I'll tell you what really made Oxford such an interesting time,
- 9:03Jon, was that you gonna think about the moment.
- 9:06The war had just come down, right?
- 9:08So the Cold War was ending.
- 9:10I'm in Europe.
- 9:11I had never traveled outside the country before in my life, and I'm out at Oxford.
- 9:15And the big debate at the time in England is whether or
- 9:18not they should join a single monetary union, right?
- 9:22This was leading up to the Maastricht Summit, which was going to occur in 1991.
- 9:27And so that debate, I remember, I was a member of the Oxford Union,
- 9:32which is the debating chamber, and
- 9:34I remember the debates between Edward Heath, the former prime minister,
- 9:39and Norman Tebbit about whether or not they should join the single union.
- 9:44And think about this, right?
- 9:46This has really foreshadowed what we've now seen.
- 9:49The conservatives were saying, this could lead to fiscal irresponsibility, right?
- 9:56You had a monetary union, but you didn't have a fiscal union.
- 9:59And so it's just going to lead to a bunch of bailouts of countries that
- 10:03weren't going to be financially sound.
- 10:06And so it led to all these moral hazards and
- 10:09potential bailouts that we've come to see, frankly, across Europe.
- 10:12And I would argue as part of the reason that Europe now, for
- 10:16decades, has underperformed the United States, and
- 10:20the national advantage of the United States has only increased.
- 10:25And so those were absolutely formative things for
- 10:30me leading up to this period.
- 10:32And then on the technology side,
- 10:36I mentioned that I saw some of the early email servers,
- 10:42but then you get Netscape Navigator in 1994.
- 10:48And I remember, first reading,
- 10:50some of Joseph Schumpeter's work on creative destruction.
- 10:55And to me, this became an important thing that drove me into technology,
- 11:01which is not only was it a way out of the Rust Belt for me in the 80s,
- 11:06but this idea that capitalism is not just about companies staying around forever.
- 11:12But there would actually be technology that would come along,
- 11:16it would disrupt what came before it, and
- 11:18it would be the source of our innovation and efficiency and economic growth.
- 11:23And that we ought to as a government society,
- 11:26we ought to embrace creative destruction, not be fearful of creative destruction.
- 11:31And so that was it.
- 11:33I went to law school, graduated in 1996, and
- 11:35I made my way out to Silicon Valley to see what this place was all about.
- 11:41And so when I think about that part of this is just getting lucky, right?
- 11:46It's being, I think, the adversity that I had trying to understand
- 11:52what happened to my family, why dad's business didn't work.
- 11:57And that led me to the excitement about what leads to human prosperity.
- 12:04And so I went to law school, graduated, and I started at this big
- 12:08law firm in Indianapolis, and I was the only one who knew how to build.
- 12:13I built our first webpage for this law firm.
- 12:15I was the only one who knew about the Internet.
- 12:17And so as a young associate,
- 12:19I was getting all of the Internet assignments and technology assignments.
- 12:24And I got appointed Deputy Secretary of State, as you mentioned,
- 12:30by our former Senator Dick Lugar, who really pushed me to do that.
- 12:35And I got behind this fledgling work in Indianapolis around venture capital.
- 12:39But I realized pretty early on, I grew up on a small lake in northern Indiana, and I
- 12:43realized if you wanna catch big fish, you got to go to the lake with the big fish.
- 12:48And Indianapolis was not going to be the hotbed of startups or
- 12:51the hotbed of venture capital.
- 12:53And so going back to business school in 1999 was really my off-ramp
- 12:58out of Indianapolis to get to eventually get to Silicon Valley.
- 13:04So, I give you that as a predicate for what was really kind of the framework and
- 13:10motivation for me ultimately to start Altimeter.
- 13:15And so I'm happy to jump into that, but maybe explore a little bit more.
- 13:19What?
- 13:20Some of that journey.
- 13:22>> Jon Hartley: Yeah, well, I mean, it's amazing,
- 13:26just I think your story that I think you're very curious in
- 13:31terms of these key questions of why are countries rich and
- 13:37poor and what drives innovation.
- 13:40I think it's amazing to hear your story saying contrast to others,
- 13:46who have lived in some way through the call, the decline of the Rust Belt or
- 13:53the decline of manufacturing in the United States.
- 13:58And a lot of the response to a lot of that I often find is very different,
- 14:03in the sense that people are very upset about being left behind and
- 14:07very upset about this sort of technological displacement.
- 14:11Whereas I feel like your drive and curiosity sort of led
- 14:16you to a very different place and different conclusion.
- 14:21>> Brad Gerstner: Yeah.
- 14:23>> Jon Hartley: Do you still keep in touch with a family in Indiana?
- 14:26And I mean, what's your thinking around, I guess, where they.
- 14:33Obviously, it's been fast-forward a couple decades later.
- 14:38Those states are one critical in terms of determining
- 14:42electoral outcomes of presidential elections in the US, and
- 14:47obviously the China shock has become very front and center and
- 14:51also is an economic policy issue in terms of what to do in response to it.
- 14:56And we have a lot of discussion about trade policy,
- 15:01terrorists, industrial policy.
- 15:04Do you have any thoughts on any of that in terms of what works and what doesn't?
- 15:09I mean, we could talk a little bit about.
- 15:10>> Brad Gerstner: For sure.
- 15:12>> Jon Hartley: We'll talk about that in a little bit.
- 15:13>> Brad Gerstner: Yeah. No, I mean, I think there's this
- 15:16assumption that just because these people are being disaffected in that part of
- 15:21the world, that therefore they must want to have a lot more government.
- 15:25But I find just the opposite generally in that part of the world.
- 15:29If you go to those places that frankly just shifted back into the Trump column,
- 15:33you know, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, generally,
- 15:37they find government to be burdensome.
- 15:40They find taxes to be high, and they're not looking for more help.
- 15:45They're just looking to keep more of what they make.
- 15:47These are hardworking folk like my dad.
- 15:51And they wanna have stable interest rates.
- 15:54They want to have stable inflation.
- 15:57They wanna have an economy that.
- 15:59Generally is growing.
- 16:00They're not looking to get bailed out.
- 16:02And so, again, I think we're all formed in those early years.
- 16:10For me, I saw the solution was not more government.
- 16:15The solution was less government, right?
- 16:18The reduction in tax rates, the reduction in interest rates, the reduction in
- 16:22inflation that occurred in the early 80s unleashed decades of expansion.
- 16:27And the more I watched, the more I got convinced that when government
- 16:33got out of the way and allowed individuals to innovate, right?
- 16:38And allowed the private market to provide the risk capitals to those
- 16:41individuals who were innovative.
- 16:42Remember, 200 years earlier,
- 16:45the entire American experiment was an entrepreneurial experiment, right?
- 16:50It was not a centrally planned experiment.
- 16:53And if you look at, I know you and I were pretty mesmerized
- 16:59by the speech that Milei gave at Davos now a year ago.
- 17:04And if you look at the economic growth, I've shown some charts on Twitter, right?
- 17:09100% of the economic prosperity and GDP growth the world has ever seen.
- 17:16We have 2,000 years, you have no GDP growth.
- 17:19And it all happens to magically line up with the founding of America,
- 17:24the Wealth of nations, limited government, entrepreneurialism, et cetera.
- 17:29Government is important to create the conditions, but
- 17:33government did not manufacture that GDP growth.
- 17:36That was manufactured on the back of hardworking people who had the incentives
- 17:41to do it.
- 17:41They got to keep the products of that labor and innovation.
- 17:46And the interesting thing is, if you look at the last 200 years, right?
- 17:51The number of years it takes GDP to double, and GDP, right?
- 17:56We have a fixed amount of labor and capital, and so
- 17:59what's the productive output of that fixed amount of labor and capital?
- 18:03Well, it's gone up at an accelerating rate.
- 18:07So the number of years it takes GDP to double has shrunk.
- 18:10Said in other words,
- 18:12the number of years it takes to improve the human condition has shrunk, right?
- 18:17And so whether we're talking about literacy rates, whether we're talking
- 18:21about life expectancy, whether we're talking about GDP per capita,
- 18:24whether we're talking about conveniences and modern luxuries, education,
- 18:28healthcare, et cetera, it's gotten unequivocally better.
- 18:31And I think that is not by coincidence.
- 18:34The United States advantage is not a coincidence.
- 18:38I think the US's advantage is inherently because we have a government
- 18:42that's in balance with allowing individuals,
- 18:46particularly in places like Silicon Valley, to create.
- 18:50And I've gotten worried, frankly, over the last decade, watching
- 18:54particularly in the state of California, people turn against entrepreneurs,
- 18:59people turn against capitalism, people turn against, right?
- 19:03The productivity that, frankly,
- 19:05is the golden goose that creates the prosperity for these places.
- 19:10And so part of my mission, both as an investor, I mean, I benefit and
- 19:14entrepreneurs benefit, and the country benefits from providing risk capital,
- 19:20building the next great things.
- 19:22All the new AI companies, Jon, are coming out of Silicon Valley.
- 19:25That's not by accident, but there is a concern that the natural drift can
- 19:31be away from capitalism if people feel disaffected, right?
- 19:37And so, that's been something that I've studied, I've talked a lot about, and
- 19:42I think a lot of that was informed by what I observed over those decades and
- 19:46the people that I studied.
- 19:47But I'm more convinced of it now than I ever been.
- 19:50Not that markets are perfect, not that the government has no role to play, but
- 19:55in the balance between government and the invisible hand of the markets,
- 20:00the United States has benefited for 200 years by erring on the side of markets,
- 20:05by erring on the side of innovators.
- 20:07By erring on the side of this limited government, that is in stark
- 20:12opposition to what Europe's done over the course of the last 20 years.
- 20:18And look at the dramatic differential, we have left Europe in the dust.
- 20:23And our advantages are compounding the next,
- 20:25people talk about the last century being the American century.
- 20:29I hate to tell Europe and
- 20:30everybody else, this century is also going to be the American century.
- 20:35>> Jon Hartley: Absolutely.
- 20:35And no, I totally agree.
- 20:36I mean, in the sense that, one, I think you're absolutely right.
- 20:40I mean, what I would call liberal economic institutions are a huge part
- 20:45of why growth started in the 1700s, 1800s, and is a huge,
- 20:50I think, part of what makes the US different from rest of the world.
- 20:54It's not a coincidence that Silicon Valley just popped up in the US, and
- 20:59I think, not a coincidence that the US continues to grow on a GDP per capita
- 21:04basis coming out of the global financial crisis.
- 21:07Whereas all these other Western European countries, Canada and Japan, even
- 21:11part of the global financial crisis, have stopped growing on a per capita basis.
- 21:15And it's very interesting.
- 21:17I mean, you do have some technology stories of Spotify in Sweden or Shopify in
- 21:21Canada or a blip like BlackBerry in Canada or something like that.
- 21:25But it's very clear that the US has a massive advantage in technology, and
- 21:30that's a big part of that growth differential.
- 21:33I think you're absolutely right in the sense that technology isn't something
- 21:38that just comes out of nowhere exogenously and that the incentives matter.
- 21:43Incentives to innovate matter.
- 21:44And that really sort of goes back to ease of doing business and
- 21:48liberal economic institutions.
- 21:51And right now, like for example, Canada is raising its capital gains tax rate,
- 21:56and you know, the CEO of and founder of Shopify is saying,
- 22:00why would I want to stick around in Canada, if you're making it so
- 22:04inhospitable for a founder like that to keep the firm there.
- 22:08So speaking of starting firms, so
- 22:10you started Altimeter in 2008 in the depths of the Great Recession.
- 22:14>> Brad Gerstner: Yeah, so let's talk about that.
- 22:15>> Jon Hartley: Yeah, what compelled you to start an investment firm
- 22:18in the middle of a financial crisis at that time?
- 22:21And how hard was it?
- 22:22>> Brad Gerstner: Yeah, I mean, so with the backdrop that we just talked
- 22:27about now, perhaps it makes a little more sense.
- 22:31If you think about it, the financial crisis in 2008 was in many
- 22:36ways just that a crisis of the financial institutions of the United States.
- 22:42I was paying attention to the technology companies, right?
- 22:46And there's nothing about 2008 that slowed down
- 22:50the success of those technology companies.
- 22:54We were in the middle of my first super cycle.
- 22:57So Altimeter tends.
- 22:58My investment theory going way back had been to know and understand something
- 23:03particularly well to gain a competitive advantage, to build a moat.
- 23:08In terms of my understanding of how the world worked.
- 23:11And if I understood it better than other people,
- 23:14then I could invest at a price today that would compound for a longer period.
- 23:18And the reason I was getting that price today is because I understood it better.
- 23:22So going back to that first personal computer and those email networks and
- 23:26all the things that got me excited about technology,
- 23:29I had studied technology as an anthropologist, right?
- 23:33As a researcher,
- 23:34as an analyst from when I helped start General Catalyst back in 1999 and 2000.
- 23:39So we were still right in the middle of the compounding that came
- 23:44from the Internet.
- 23:45And it unleashed massive benefits for individuals.
- 23:50Just think, anybody could Google anything in the world and discover any information.
- 23:56And again, it wasn't the government that provided that innovation.
- 23:59To humanity it was a private company, you know, in Google.
- 24:03And it was still compounding at super high rates,
- 24:05as were other vertical search companies, companies like Zillow and
- 24:09companies like booking.com that I was an investor in.
- 24:12And so I was really excited.
- 24:14And some of my heroes of investing, right,
- 24:17guys I had grown up with in Boston as Seth Klarman, the founder of Balpost,
- 24:22he founded BalPost in 1981 in the teeth of the 1981 recession, right?
- 24:27We're just talking about that when Volcker was trying to imagine founding bauposts in
- 24:32the teeth of that recession.
- 24:34Or Paul Reeder, who became a dear friend and my mentor in the business,
- 24:38who founded PAR Capital, he founded it in 1991 in the depths of the SNL crisis.
- 24:44Or my good friend Chase Coleman,
- 24:46who founded Tiger right after the Internet bubble burst in 2001.
- 24:51So I knew it could be done I understood the path to do it.
- 24:54And so I wasn't afraid of the events of 2008.
- 24:58Of course.
- 24:59I remember talking to investment banks.
- 25:01I had to set up a prime brokerage to get the business started.
- 25:05And several of them said to me, I don't know if my bank's going to exist
- 25:08in six months, but I'm happy to sign you up as a customer.
- 25:11That's how bad it was.
- 25:13And so I knew that it was incredible moment in terms of price of entry.
- 25:17And my enthusiasm for technology had not been diminished at all, right?
- 25:22If anything, I was buying companies that were, you know,
- 25:25as Warren Buffett says, I mean, these were deep, deep discounts in sales.
- 25:30I bought my first stock that I bought in the public fund in 2008.
- 25:34October 1, 2008, was Priceline at $45 a share, today it's over $4,000 a share.
- 25:42That is a venture capital return in the public markets.
- 25:45Okay, and that was the opportunity that was presented at the time.
- 25:49And I knew I wanted to build a firm that looked different than the other firms
- 25:54that I saw.
- 25:54I wanted a firm that would benefit from understanding all the way from early stage
- 25:58venture capital all the way through the public markets.
- 26:01I had a belief that if you, if you could take advantage of and
- 26:05combine these networks, you would.
- 26:08The work on the public side would give me advantages on the venture side, and
- 26:12the work on the venture side would give me advantages on the public side.
- 26:15And I promise you, back in 2005, when I started doing that at PAR Capital and
- 26:20then in 2008 at altimeter, that was not a common belief.
- 26:24In fact, most allocators of capital said Brad, we don't want you to do both.
- 26:28Pick one, we want you to be great at one.
- 26:30And I said, you don't understand there are inherent advantages, right?
- 26:35Network effects by doing them together.
- 26:37And so we launched what was one of, you know,
- 26:40the first crossover funds is what they call them now.
- 26:43At the time they weren't calling them that.
- 26:46I moved to Silicon Valley and
- 26:48we've had great success in both the public fund as well as the venture fund.
- 26:53And I attribute that really to two things.
- 26:55Number one, I just bet on America and I bet on the future of technology.
- 26:59And Jon, if you look at the last 15 years of technology,
- 27:03technology companies have compounded earnings at 15% and
- 27:07their stocks have compounded at 17% for 15 years.
- 27:12Non tech companies in the S&P 500 have compounded earnings at 4% and
- 27:17their and their stocks are compounded at 6%.
- 27:20Technology as a percentage of global GDP has gone from 5% to 15%.
- 27:26So it seems to me that, you know, if you're going to invest,
- 27:30pick a boat that you know is rowing downstream like this is the best
- 27:34advantage, you know, that we have in this country.
- 27:38And so I figured if I was planted in the heart of Silicon Valley investing in
- 27:42technology, public and
- 27:43venture, not only did I have the tailwinds of just a great industry sector, you know,
- 27:48that was going to continue to compound at higher rates than non tech,
- 27:52that was going to continue to become a bigger percentage of global gdp,
- 27:56but that I would be able to find the best of tech.
- 27:59So if I could pick the best 25% of tech and
- 28:01avoid the 25% that was being disrupted, that we could provide a lot of alpha on
- 28:06top of the decision just to invest in tech.
- 28:09And so that was really the motivating principle behind it.
- 28:12But I have to tell you, those early days, basically I had no money, I was passing
- 28:17a hat and I started with very little and you know, but I'm certainly happy I did.
- 28:23>> Jon Hartley: That's amazing and I think very unique in the sense that you're
- 28:27investing in both public equities and vc, you know,
- 28:31with this focus on technology and you know, obviously, you know,
- 28:36you've had some big VC winners like Snowflake and
- 28:39being very early to Nvidia, that's a publicly traded company,
- 28:43I mean, it's had a very big recent run up which you were ahead of.
- 28:48And just the explosion in interest in generative AI which has driven
- 28:53a lot of that.
- 28:54You've also really influenced some of the more established firms out there, like
- 28:59you compelled United Continental to change its board directors of report performance.
- 29:04And in 2022, you wrote an influential letter to Facebook recommending that
- 29:09they reduce their headcount and shift their focus away from the Metaverse.
- 29:14Remember, Facebook changed its name to the Metaverse, or sorry to Meta,
- 29:19just because it wanted to sort of signal that it was all in on the Metaverse.
- 29:24And this is something that they subsequently did.
- 29:28They listened to your letter and they were responsive and they reduced their head
- 29:31Cambridge significantly and pivoted away from the Metaverse.
- 29:34I mean, tell us, you know, what is your overall, you know, approach to investing?
- 29:38What's your investment philosophy?
- 29:40>> Brad Gerstner: Well, first it's, I think to be successful at anything,
- 29:43you have to be deeply passionate about it.
- 29:46I'm two things, I'm a researcher and an analyst, and
- 29:48I'm deeply passionate about technology.
- 29:51Right.
- 29:51And I think the byproduct of what we do is great for the country because I think it
- 29:55provides economic productivity and growth, which drives our economy.
- 29:58So that's what the animating feature of what I get up and do every day.
- 30:04If I had to say, what defines our approach?
- 30:08Number one, I'm a thematic investor in technology.
- 30:11We have super cycles, the Internet, mobile, cloud, and
- 30:15now artificial intelligence.
- 30:17And so it's identifying the super cycle, identifying what you think
- 30:22will be the biggest winners and the biggest losers in the super cycle.
- 30:27A lot of that is established in the first three to four years of the super cycle.
- 30:31And then those companies will compound for a long period of time.
- 30:34Right?
- 30:34And so it's following that passion, investing thematically.
- 30:38And then we think like owners, we tend to hold things for a long time.
- 30:42In the venture capital world, that means owning things for 10, 15 years, right?
- 30:46Our holding period on the public side also is much longer, you mentioned Meta.
- 30:51We owned that company for over a decade.
- 30:53And so we compound in these companies for a long time.
- 30:56So long as they continue to benefit from the super cycle and so long as they're
- 31:01benefiting from what's going on in terms of their management and leadership.
- 31:05I love the fact that Meta, you know, is led by just an incredible founder.
- 31:10But when you think like owners, you know, like,
- 31:13it also leads you to some other conclusions.
- 31:16Number one, I don't want to buy cigar butts, you know, like, like Ben Graham
- 31:21used to talk about, I want to buy fantastic businesses at fair prices.
- 31:25Now what's a fair price?
- 31:27Okay, because in technology, everything always looks expensive.
- 31:31But in my, in my world, I look out 10 years and say,
- 31:34what can possibly happen here?
- 31:36And then I discount that.
- 31:37Back.
- 31:38So in the case of booking.com I talked about that company.
- 31:41I teach a class at the old Graham and Dodd securities analysis class as
- 31:46a visitor maybe now for 12 or 13 years at Columbia Business School.
- 31:52And I used to feature this case as a case study because every sell side
- 31:57analyst on Wall Street had the opportunity in 2005 to figure this out.
- 32:02But most of them were so focused on the next quarter or two quarters ahead,
- 32:06they couldn't possibly imagine what could happen over a period of 10 years.
- 32:09And that, that longevity, that ability to see where this was going, that is your
- 32:14alpha, that is your competitive advantage, and that's what allowed us to
- 32:18buy it at a time that other people might have thought it was expensive,
- 32:22but if you looked out three or four years, it was actually really cheap.
- 32:26Or in the case of Meta, [COUGH] I remember in the summer of 22,
- 32:30I couldn't have been more excited for Meta, right?
- 32:34People said to me, you didn't believe in what Mark was doing?
- 32:40Totally different.
- 32:40Like, I love the fact that he had total control over the company.
- 32:43I think he's one of the most gifted founders of our time.
- 32:46But I thought that the world was changing under our feet.
- 32:50I thought artificial intelligence was going to be the next big wave.
- 32:54And I was worried that Covid had led all companies into this age of excess.
- 32:59We hired too many people.
- 33:01We had these negative interest rates, this ZIRP period that just led to gross
- 33:06excesses across the economy, misallocation of resources.
- 33:09And so my conversation in the letter, ultimately I said,
- 33:13was an open letter to all of Silicon Valley.
- 33:15We all had gotten lazy, out of shape, and we needed to get more efficient.
- 33:20And, you know, my rallying cry to Mark was he was the type of leader that could lead
- 33:25all of Silicon Valley, not just Meta, to be more efficient, and he did.
- 33:29When he launched the Year of Efficiency and all the credit, by the way,
- 33:33100% of the credit goes to Mark and his team.
- 33:36But when he wrote the Year of Efficiency, a few months after I had written
- 33:40the letter, Time To Get Fit, he said, flatter is faster, leaner is better.
- 33:45And this is really important because he didn't say, I went from 87,000
- 33:50employees to 62,000 employees just because I wanted to expand my margins.
- 33:55He actually said, by getting in shape, you become a better company.
- 34:01Less layers in the decision making process.
- 34:03You become faster, you become better.
- 34:06And that really, you know, and I could tell you because all of these CEOs
- 34:11were texting and calling, they all wanted to follow his lead, right?
- 34:16And so that was, you know, a super important move.
- 34:19And remember, his stock was at $90 a share.
- 34:21The headline in the Wall Street Journal was Meta is dead.
- 34:25And it couldn't be further from the truth.
- 34:27He doubled down on artificial intelligence before ChatGPT was launched,
- 34:31which wouldn't be launched until five months after we were having those,
- 34:35those interactions and that letter was written, he doubled down on AI.
- 34:39They continued to focus on the metaverse, just didn't grow it as much, and
- 34:43they reduced their headcount, they got flatter and faster, and
- 34:46they've been a huge beneficiary of AI.
- 34:49And we still own Meta.
- 34:50So now I've owned it since 2011, 2012, shortly after the IPO.
- 34:56And so we think like owners and ultimately building a trusted brand where we partner
- 35:03with the world's most iconic founders from sometimes the earliest stage, right?
- 35:09Snowflake, you mentioned it was before they had their first client,
- 35:13before they had any revenue.
- 35:14You know, we were one of the largest shareholders in that company.
- 35:19And then we invest along the cycle.
- 35:21We continue to invest in them.
- 35:23When Sequoia came in, one Iconic came into that round.
- 35:26We did the same thing with Mongo, [COUGH] we did the same thing with so
- 35:30many other companies along the way, Zillow, etc.
- 35:34But we also, sometimes we don't,
- 35:36we don't see it until they come into the public markets.
- 35:39Remember, a lot of these companies have grown 100x in the public markets.
- 35:43Finally, I would just say that companies tend today to stay private longer.
- 35:49So there are two features, two things that have happened.
- 35:53Number one, we've imposed a lot of regulatory burden on going public.
- 35:57Jon, and remember, follow the incentives.
- 36:01What happens when you impose a lot of regulatory burden?
- 36:04Well, the private markets respond.
- 36:06So the private capital markets have gotten much deeper, and they said,
- 36:10just like on private credit, on the private equity, on the growth equity side
- 36:15of things, we said, fine, if you don't want to go public,
- 36:19we'll provide IPO like capital to you in the private markets.
- 36:23I think this is a shame because now because of a lot of this regulation,
- 36:29small retail investors don't get a shot on goal on investing in OpenAI early.
- 36:35They don't get a shot on goal in investing in Uber early.
- 36:38They don't get a shot on goal, investing in amazing companies like Stripe or
- 36:41Databricks early, because they stay private much longer.
- 36:44So Altimeter invests in those companies just as though they were public, but
- 36:48we're investing out of private capital.
- 36:51I think that needs to change, by the way.
- 36:53I think we need to tackle those regulatory burdens.
- 36:55I think we're better off as a country when these companies are coming public sooner,
- 37:00but that's in fact what's happened.
- 37:02So we invest early, we invest along the way as they become very big companies,
- 37:07many of these valued at 20-60 billion, 100 billion in the private markets or
- 37:12in the case of OpenAI recently at 150 billion.
- 37:15And then, oftentimes, we lead their IPOs.
- 37:18We're one of the major buyers in the IPO, and we continue to invest.
- 37:22Why?
- 37:23Because market leaders in super cycles tend to compound for
- 37:28a very long period of time.
- 37:30>> Jon Hartley: And absolutely, I mean, it's fascinating just how fewer public
- 37:34companies are today than it's a decade or two ago.
- 37:37And I agree, I think the regulation is definitely a part of it, going public.
- 37:41Also, I think there's just a lot of companies that don't wanna be publicly
- 37:46traded, and they don't want mark-to-market valuations all the time.
- 37:51Whereas, if you can be owned by private equity,
- 37:54your marks are a little bit more infrequent.
- 37:58And there's this whole concept of volatility, laundering and so forth.
- 38:02And so public markets, or sorry, private markets offer this
- 38:07sort of ability to hide a public scrutiny in a certain way.
- 38:11So it's interesting how it's evolved a little bit over time.
- 38:15I wanna talk a little bit more about generative AI and chips.
- 38:19It's obviously a very front and center topic right now.
- 38:23And I wanna in particular talk a little bit about tech industrial policy and
- 38:27really how you see it.
- 38:29As an investor, you actually understand these companies that are being
- 38:33subsidized and there's this whole challenge.
- 38:36So let's talk about like the Chips and Science Act, for example.
- 38:39So it was passed in 2022, and
- 38:41they had this partial goal of re-shoring chip supply chains to the US,
- 38:46obviously chips are a big component of generative AI GPUs in particular.
- 38:52And I'm just curious how is that re-shoring going in your mind?
- 38:58Is Intel kind of a dead company?
- 39:02That industrial policy is just propping up?
- 39:05Did the struggles to build TSMC chip fabs, facilities,
- 39:10production facilities in places like Arizona?
- 39:15There's been a lot of discussion about that.
- 39:17Does that suggest that we should maybe be instead like encouraging to build,
- 39:21fabs in, in sort of friendly, cheap labor places like, like Mexico, you know,
- 39:25so-called friends.
- 39:26>> Brad Gerstner: Really, you're really trying to get me going here.
- 39:30Let me first just say, we've been working on
- 39:34artificial intelligence for decades now.
- 39:39I made my first kind of AI investments, if you will, all the way back in 2005.
- 39:45Backing one of the heads of AI out of the University of Washington at the time.
- 39:49We invest in Cerebras, another chip company.
- 39:52Yeah, some period of time ago, well before ChatGPT, so.
- 39:59So like ChatGPT brought AI to the public consciousness.
- 40:03But think about this at a big level.
- 40:05The Internet was laying down the rails.
- 40:09Mobile created ubiquity, the cloud created data ubiquity in the cloud.
- 40:14But really artificial intelligence brings it all together, right?
- 40:18I was at a dinner once maybe in 2015 or 16, where Bill Gates was asked,
- 40:22haven't all the interesting things been done?
- 40:24And he said, we haven't even started.
- 40:26And somebody said, well, what do you mean?
- 40:28He said, we won't even start until computers go from
- 40:32calculators to actually helping us think, right?
- 40:36We are at the dawn of the moment where computers went from 10 blue links to
- 40:40giving us answers, right?
- 40:42To becoming agents, to becoming assistants,
- 40:45to helping us think, to solving problems on our behalf,
- 40:48harnessing all of the information humans have ever seen.
- 40:52Okay, I think this super cycle is gonna be bigger than all the other super cycles put
- 40:57together.
- 40:57Like, I think this is what we're going to be investing again against for
- 41:01decades to come.
- 41:02It doesn't mean that we won't have bubbly valuations and
- 41:06lots of companies won't work.
- 41:08And that's part of the creative destruction with Schumpeter that we
- 41:12talked about.
- 41:13That's good. That's not a sign of failure,
- 41:15that's a sign of success that we actually allow companies to fail in this country.
- 41:19And this is one of my problems, frankly, with the CHIPS Act.
- 41:23So let's talk about the goal, right?
- 41:26It's a noble.
- 41:27I have a concern about our national security dependency on a single country
- 41:33that is in dispute, ie Taiwan, as the source of all of our advanced chips.
- 41:38So I think everybody can agree on this, right?
- 41:41That having 90% of the advanced chip supply chain in the world in Taiwan and
- 41:48an adversary in China makes us very uneasy that we have this big dependency.
- 41:55Whether you're Nvidia having the dependency for the manufacturer of all
- 41:59those chips or any other chip manufacturer having that dependency.
- 42:02And so it's in the US national security interests to reduce its dependency,
- 42:08a single threaded dependency on Taiwan for advanced chips.
- 42:12But there are a lot of ways to achieve this goal.
- 42:14And what I concerns me, I have a podcast, BG2 pod with my good buddy Bill Gurley.
- 42:21And one of Bill Gurley, you know, things he and I just resolutely agree on,
- 42:26going all the way back to Stigler and regulatory capture is the problem is when
- 42:30we start picking winners and losers, when the central government starts
- 42:35picking winners and losers, it generally Always ends bad, right.
- 42:39Markets allocate resources actually quite well.
- 42:42And so I think the government has a role to play to say, listen,
- 42:47we need to incentivize businesses, lots of ways to incentivize them to build fabs
- 42:52in other parts of the world other than the United States or other than Taiwan.
- 42:58Now it's nice that they build them in the United States.
- 43:01So TSMC building fabs in Arizona may be a very good thing.
- 43:06Maybe we wanna give them tax breaks and
- 43:08other things to get the best companies in the world.
- 43:10And TSMC is the best fab in the world to get them to do it here.
- 43:14So we reduce our dependency on Taiwan.
- 43:17I think that again is in our national security interest.
- 43:20But the idea that we should prop up a bad dying US
- 43:24manufacturer because we have some nostalgia about intel,
- 43:30I think is a really bad idea, right?
- 43:33I don't think that the government should be involved in that sort of industrial
- 43:38policy.
- 43:39I don't think, you know, the company is too complex today,
- 43:42has too many different areas of focus.
- 43:45Right.
- 43:45This is the process of creative destruction.
- 43:47Intel's in the situation it is because of choices intel made, right?
- 43:54And so I think in that situation I would rather see us figuring out ways
- 43:59to get TSMC to multi source its manufacturing in places like Mexico and
- 44:05Japan and Southeast Asia and India and other places,
- 44:09much like Apple is moving a lot of its production to India
- 44:13to reduce its single threaded dependency on China.
- 44:18I think that is all smart national security interest decisions,
- 44:22but I think you have to be very, very careful as, as you know,
- 44:27Gurley likes to warn about regulatory capture.
- 44:30I think this is another area.
- 44:32So when government is handing out all this money, right,
- 44:35when they're picking the winners and losers,
- 44:37I think more often than not it leads us to a worse place, not a better place.
- 44:41>> Jon Hartley: Yeah, no, I totally agree with that.
- 44:43And I do think that there is, I mean, some rationale for
- 44:48non economic objectives in construction policy.
- 44:52You think about sanctions, it's like, I think it certainly makes
- 44:57sense to use sanctions as a geopolitical tool, particularly when
- 45:02you're dealing with threats, people that threaten U.S. interests.
- 45:07And there have often been libertarians that have harshly criticized sanctions,
- 45:13say on Iran.
- 45:14But at some level if these are nuclear countries or
- 45:18potentially a nuclear threat to the United States or their allies,
- 45:23taking a sort of even a short term economic hit from those sanctions or
- 45:28industrial policies.
- 45:29Say to, I guess subsidized chip manufacturing either in the US or
- 45:34in allied countries might be kind of a second best option if you're sort
- 45:39of dealing with this potentially hugely disruptive event that could occur,
- 45:45like the Chinese party of China invading Taiwan or something like that.
- 45:50So I want to shift just a little bit to, you know, your.
- 45:55Your advocacy of baby equities.
- 45:59It's a concept that's similar to baby bonds,
- 46:02where every child receives at birth, a publicly funded trust account,
- 46:07which is invested, in the case of baby equities, invest in stocks.
- 46:12And you spent a lot of time on this as part of your nonprofit that
- 46:17you run called Invest America.
- 46:20I mean, tell us a little bit more about that.
- 46:22I mean, I'm curious what some of the main obstacles are.
- 46:26I mean, your Democrats, like Cory Booker have long championed this cause.
- 46:30It was once part of Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign platform.
- 46:34I mean, why should free market Republicans or Democrats be interested in.
- 46:38And I know you're a limited government kind of guy.
- 46:41How do you square that with being in favor of baby equities?
- 46:46>> Brad Gerstner: Well, first,
- 46:47it's radically different than what they were proposing with baby bonds.
- 46:51And I'll get to that.
- 46:52But it's the right question to ask, right?
- 46:55I am a limited government proponent all the way.
- 47:00But the thing that scares me the most is seeing the misalignment we have in
- 47:04America and the attacks that are going on on capitalism that I think.
- 47:09So if we just think about the natural hand of the market here,
- 47:12all this prosperity is terrific.
- 47:14But it's undeniable that it's also led to a lot of wealth concentration,
- 47:19because that's the natural byproduct.
- 47:21Today, a single founder of a company can service 3
- 47:25billion customers like Mark Zuckerberg, okay?
- 47:29And so I fear the attack on capitalism is coming.
- 47:33And Ray Dalio talks about this being the greatest threat to America.
- 47:38And so, ironically, I believe Invest America,
- 47:42making every child a capitalist participant from birth,
- 47:46is by far the greatest and cheapest insurance policy in
- 47:51defense of free market capitalism that we could ever create.
- 47:563.7 million individual accounts created every year,
- 48:00a 401k from birth where it's, each of those families has control and title.
- 48:06And then the private market flywheel can turn, right?
- 48:11Those families can save and compound in the upside of the American economy.
- 48:16We have all sorts of companies from Dell to Uber who say they'll contribute to
- 48:20the accounts of the kids of their employees, so
- 48:23it will compound in that way as well.
- 48:25So, there's no government program and there's zero government account.
- 48:28That is a radical difference from the concept of baby bonds,
- 48:33but why do we need this?
- 48:35Right, and I think it comes down too few people are participating in
- 48:41the upside of the American economy today, and this is a very simple way.
- 48:47Okay, let's talk about the cost here because I'm really excited about DOGE and
- 48:52the Department of Government Efficiency and know and
- 48:56what we're gonna to do to bring our budget into balance.
- 48:59So, if you give a thousand bucks in a seed capital count to each of
- 49:04the newborns in this country, every year, it costs $3.7 billion.
- 49:09Okay, $3.7 billion, to put that in perspective,
- 49:12that's about the cost of a single Patriot missile system.
- 49:16To put it in further perspective, the $175 billion that we poured into Ukraine,
- 49:22that many of us think is a misguided adventure that has not made Ukraine Safer.
- 49:28Okay, that $175 billion would pay for this for
- 49:3345 years, and 170 million American children.
- 49:38It's time that we start making trade offs.
- 49:41So, you and I both would agree markets aren't perfect.
- 49:45There are places that the government can coordinate
- 49:49private market participation to unlock human potential.
- 49:54So, this is a massively NPV positive investment, how do we know that?
- 49:59We have controlled studies, right, by our friend Kevin Hassett,
- 50:04who was Trump's chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers,
- 50:08by economists on, on, on the left like Rob Shapiro, and what do we know?
- 50:13We know that kids who have an investment account for birth, they're more likely to
- 50:17graduate from high school, they're more likely to be financially literate, they're
- 50:21more likely to graduate from college, they're more likely to buy a home,
- 50:25they're more likely to start a business, they're less likely to be imprisoned.
- 50:28We know those facts, okay?
- 50:31Think about all the wasteful programs we have in this country,
- 50:35that is redistributing wealth right after the problem occurs, right?
- 50:40Trying to help kids graduate from high school,
- 50:44trying to help kids graduate from college.
- 50:47The problem is we don't have the incentives for
- 50:50enough of these kids from early on.
- 50:52So, I know a little something about this.
- 50:54I was born on the wrong side of the tracks, I was born with nothing,
- 50:58I was born poor.
- 50:59Trust me, I understand, pull yourself up by the bootstraps.
- 51:03But the reality is, if we just give a little nudge, a tiny little nudge,
- 51:06doesn't even have to be a thousand, if we think that's too much money,
- 51:10make it 500 bucks, it only cost us 1.8 billion a year.
- 51:13Here's what we have, the behavioral economics economists know two things.
- 51:18Number one, we have a cold start problem, okay?
- 51:22We know that savers save more, once they get that little snowball rolling down
- 51:27the hill, and they see the compounding, it incentivizes them to save more.
- 51:33Even if you study the cohorts of the poorest people in this country, if they
- 51:38have a savings account, those cohorts act just the same way that rich folks do.
- 51:43They will save money, obviously a lesser amount, but they will save money.
- 51:47And so for me, the market failure here is that we have a cold start problem.
- 51:53It's very difficult to set up a custodial account that compounds in the stock
- 51:57market from births, government can help us there.
- 52:00And the second thing, you know,
- 52:02beyond that cold start problem is we don't have an infrastructure, right,
- 52:07that is universal, so it's super simple, everybody a kid when they're born.
- 52:12I have two children, when they were born,
- 52:15we had to fill out paperwork that got them a Social Security number.
- 52:18All I'm saying is they should also be able to check, everybody has a box check and
- 52:23they get an Invest America account.
- 52:25Now, the Invest America account will be administered by
- 52:28private market participants, right?
- 52:31A private label to the U.S. Government, every kid can open their phone,
- 52:35they see their Invest America account, their name, the amount they have in it.
- 52:40And that they own a little slice of Berkshire Hathaway, of Apple, of Nvidia,
- 52:45of United Healthcare, of the upside, of America, right?
- 52:48This isn't about creating millionaires there,
- 52:51these concepts around universal basic income, et cetera.
- 52:54This is the problem, this is what we're going to get if we don't get more people
- 52:59in the game from the start.
- 53:00So, I want to harness the power of the private markets.
- 53:03I wanna empower individuals and families, and
- 53:06start them on a journey that by the age of 18 they'll have $40,000 in
- 53:11these accounts because the American economy is the most powerful in the world.
- 53:16>> Jon Hartley: You know, it's a fascinating idea, I think,
- 53:19in the sense that, like there is this I guess behavioral challenger,
- 53:23I think you call it, cold start problem, which is like one, you know, only,
- 53:28I think 40, like less than 50% of Americans own stocks to begin with.
- 53:33And very, I think a very suboptimal number of individuals own,
- 53:37even if it's, you know, say, through a public pension plan or so forth.
- 53:42So I think, you know, how do you develop those habits?
- 53:46And I think part of this idea is, you know,
- 53:49trying to expose people to those, you know, good habits and
- 53:53kind of endowing them with a tool that would allow them to do that.
- 53:57And I guess, part of it's like, you know, tracking, your performance,
- 54:01the performance of the stocks over time, I mean, so.
- 54:03Exactly, like, how would it work in the sense that, like, so you get it at birth.
- 54:07I mean, you can't, I guess your parents or the child that receives the accounts
- 54:11can't really sell this until like age 18 or something like that.
- 54:16Or how does it work in terms of when can they first sort of begin to liquidate,
- 54:20or draw down some of that account?
- 54:22>> Brad Gerstner: Yeah, no, it's a great question and
- 54:24of course it will ultimately be determined by the legislative process.
- 54:28But we have a great list of champions on the right,
- 54:33from folks like Senator Hagerty and Ted Cruz to the left,
- 54:38and you mentioned folks like, Mark Warner and folks like Cory Booker.
- 54:45But ultimately they'll have to, hash that out,
- 54:49I'll tell you from my own perspective, right?
- 54:52Imagine this, your parents will be able to opt in just like they would if they
- 54:57set up a custodial account for you at birth.
- 55:00They get to see, you know, this compound, but
- 55:02by the time you're in the fifth grade or in middle school, every kid has a phone.
- 55:07They'll open it up on their phone, and they'll see and button and trust me,
- 55:11you know, you talk to Fidelity or Schwab or Franklin or, you know,
- 55:15JP Morgan, the number one page everybody looks at who owns stocks is what they call
- 55:19that money page.
- 55:20What's my net worth, and what do I have?
- 55:22It's gamification, it gets people excited.
- 55:25It gives them a reason to learn, we have financial literacy courses now in school,
- 55:29demanded in curriculum in 30 states.
- 55:32Here's the problem, if none of these folks own anything, if their parents have never
- 55:37participated in compounding or savings, then it's really hard to learn about it.
- 55:41But if instead, I'm the seventh grade teacher, I say, pull out your phones,
- 55:45open up your Invest America account, whether I'm in rural Indiana or
- 55:48rural Mississippi, right?
- 55:49Whether I'm in urban Trenton or urban la,
- 55:53kids who would not otherwise participate are now in the game.
- 55:57And I'll tell you that unlocks Massive human potential.
- 56:00And it's going to save us a lot of money down the line by getting these folks into
- 56:05the game early.
- 56:06But here's what, here's what kind of the going rate is.
- 56:09At 18, they can take up to 25% of this dollars to buy a house or
- 56:14to start a business or to go to College.
- 56:17At age 30, a certain amount more would come unlocked.
- 56:20At age 40, it's all yours, right?
- 56:22And by age 40, if you start with $1,000 and just add $750 a year.
- 56:29So this could be your birthday money, bar mitzvah money,
- 56:32a little summer mowing money.
- 56:34Or it could be that your parents work at a company that matches, right,
- 56:37puts money into the accounts of the kids.
- 56:40And we have dozens and dozens of companies that have already committed to doing that.
- 56:44Or it can be philanthropically.
- 56:45We know across the country there are ready people
- 56:49from Maine to Texas who will contribute philanthropically to this.
- 56:54So imagine we're going to have 14 trillion of wealth transfer that
- 56:58comes up over the course of the next 15 years.
- 57:02Jon. imagine if folks like Michael Dell or
- 57:04Warren Buffett said, hey,
- 57:06I want to create a trust account with $10 billion in it, and it will match for
- 57:10every kid in the state of Texas whose family earns under $150,000.
- 57:15Now, that's an efficient way, right, to get more people into the game.
- 57:21And so that is the current thinking, you know, that they will have control over
- 57:25these accounts starting at age 18, but it's going to lead to a lot
- 57:29more economic productivity, a lot more people in the game.
- 57:33And here's the number one thing it's going to.
- 57:35And our good friend Joe Lonsdale, I was doing the American Optimist Podcast with
- 57:40Joe, and Joe is also a limited government guy.
- 57:43And so he's, I think starts off suspicious at this.
- 57:47And then he became a big supporter because he said, brad,
- 57:51my biggest fear is that we're losing alignment with America's kids.
- 57:56Less than half of people under the age of 40 believe in capitalism, okay?
- 58:00He said, the Marxists are gonna hate this because every child from birth is going to
- 58:04be aligned with capitalism, right?
- 58:07We help them understand what America is all about.
- 58:09It reengages them both civically and economically.
- 58:12Jon, in the upside of America.
- 58:14And doesn't create a big government program to do it right.
- 58:17It does it on the back of the growing American economy.
- 58:20It's simply a 401K from birth,
- 58:21and it's a tiny little seed from the federal government.
- 58:25That is an absolute rounding error,
- 58:27less than one-tenth of 1% of our federal revenues.
- 58:30So let's stop spending all this needless money, right, helping these kids later
- 58:35down the line when they're incarcerated or not graduated, and let's just redeploy
- 58:39a tiny amount of that money, right, to see them and then get out of the way.
- 58:43Government. Get out of the way.
- 58:45No government administrative agency just let the Treasury Department administer it.
- 58:49And let's get that snowball growing for every child in America.
- 58:52And I'll tell you, there'll be a hell of a lot more aligned with American capitalism.
- 58:56>> Jon Hartley: Well, it's a fascinating, I think, financial education kind of idea.
- 59:00And, you know, could, I think teach a lot of people potentially
- 59:04about obviously diversification, time value of money, compound growth,
- 59:09I think is a really, really fascinating idea.
- 59:12And certainly, you know, someone who's actually.
- 59:15It's was my 35th birthday the other day and I was.
- 59:18>> Brad Gerstner: Happy birthday.
- 59:19>> Jon Hartley: Born, thank you,
- 59:20I was actually born when the Berlin Wall was falling.
- 59:23It's amazing how many people born after me kinda have no memory of the USSR or
- 59:28socialism and kinda the negativity or
- 59:31that some of the negative effects of that on the economy.
- 59:35And I think how do we develop tools in a post Soviet, post USSR kind of world to
- 59:40teach people about the benefits of free market capitalism, even if there's some
- 59:44small cost of government, I think is a very interesting idea.
- 59:48A real honor to have you on, Brad, and hear about your career and ideas.
- 59:51Thank you so much for joining us.
- 59:53>> Brad Gerstner: It was a lot of fun, Jon, I look forward to a little walk
- 59:56around Stanford here soon and continue the conversation.
- 1:00:00>> Jon Hartley: Thanks so much, Brad.
- 1:00:02This is the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century podcast,
- 1:00:04an official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group where we talk about
- 1:00:08economic economics, markets, and public policy.
- 1:00:10I'm Jon Hartley, your host.
- 1:00:11Thanks so much for joining us.
- 1:00:12[MUSIC]