Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 561 - 8/6/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
- 0:14welcome to episode 561 of the all systems go sports betting
- 0:20podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
- 0:30What's going on everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday, Another
- 0:33day here in the arena, guys. But it's not just like any other
- 0:36day. It's a special day because guess
- 0:38what? We have football back in our
- 0:40lives. That's right.
- 0:41The long wait from the Super Bowl, of course, to the first
- 0:44preseason game. It's officially the Hall of Fame
- 0:47game tonight. Again, preseason exhibition.
- 0:50It's going to be sloppy, but I still think using our
- 0:52data-driven approach, there's a sharp angle to take for tonight.
- 0:56So hinted at it last couple pods and then I was doing more
- 0:59research and then I was kind of getting some more bet splits.
- 1:02We had the DK splits. I just got the Bet MGM splits.
- 1:05I'm also looking at the betting market, how it's reacting, how
- 1:07it's moving. And you know, some people might
- 1:09say, what are you doing betting the NFL Hall of Fame game?
- 1:12What are you crazy? You know, these guys are all
- 1:14scrubs. You don't even know who they
- 1:16are. There's going to be no starters.
- 1:17It's going to be a crapshoot. It's going to be it's going to
- 1:19be gross and dirty and you're crazy for betting the the Hall
- 1:22of Fame game and know, you know what you say to them.
- 1:24You say just watch me hold my beer because what's better than
- 1:28cashing hopefully knock on wood with a Hall of Fame best bet.
- 1:31And that's exactly what we have here for tonight.
- 1:34So 8:00 Eastern Time, Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals.
- 1:37I will give you my play for this one.
- 1:40So usually we say 03 pack. Let's try to go 2 and one.
- 1:43Well, we're going to try to get at least two, hopefully three
- 1:45winners here for tonight, guys, because they also have 3 pack of
- 1:49MLB best bets for you. So I have an early game here
- 1:52late afternoon as well as some later games here for tonight.
- 1:55So we're going to try to go 2 and one in MLB and it would be
- 1:59awesome if we could hit our Hall of Fame best bet as well for the
- 2:02Hall of Fame game. SO3MLB1 Hall of Fame game best
- 2:07bet. We're going to see if we can
- 2:08kick off our our full season officially again.
- 2:11Again, the picks up week one of the NFLI will also have my
- 2:14survival survival survivor contest.
- 2:17You'd want to want to be a survivor and then find a way to,
- 2:20you know, pass the survival course.
- 2:23But I will have my survivor contest coming up shortly as
- 2:25well. So stay tuned for that.
- 2:27But just just sniff the air guys.
- 2:29Football's in the air. Nothing better than that.
- 2:31And I'll also tell you that the the daughter, my little baby
- 2:36daughter, she is at her grandma's tonight and my wife
- 2:38after work is driving to her mom's.
- 2:41So I'll be home alone sweating MLB and I'll be sweating the
- 2:45Hall of Fame game. So it's a special night for
- 2:47myself as well. Just just me and my dog.
- 2:49I'll be sweating these games tonight.
- 2:50And that's a rare occurrence when become a a parent.
- 2:52Usually you're busy and can never do what you want.
- 2:55I got lucky for tonight. So wouldn't it be nice if we
- 2:57could get some winters? But anyway, guys, looking back
- 3:00to her last night kept our winning ways going 2 and 1 +
- 3:040.63 units. Hopefully you got an odds boost
- 3:07there available to you from FanDuel.
- 3:09I was also noticing by the way, with Bally bet they have this
- 3:13like early, you know, early game profit boost.
- 3:15So if you basically they're telling you they they want your
- 3:17action, they want you to bet on the early games, but all the MLB
- 3:201:00 games or or odds boosted as well.
- 3:22So definitely always shop for the best line with your odds
- 3:25logic live odds page and then of course, take advantage of these
- 3:28boost. But either way, another winning
- 3:29day. Red Sox came up huge 4 nothing
- 3:32shut out Red Sox unbelievably just keep on winning, beating
- 3:36the White Sox. Mariners had to stay up late and
- 3:38sweat that one. But a 42 winner against Detroit,
- 3:41that was a nothing nothing game forever.
- 3:43And then finally Julio Rodriguez hit a opposite field bomb.
- 3:47They hung on there to win four to two.
- 3:48That was nice. And again, there are those
- 3:50nights I always try to mention this, you know, realistic
- 3:53expectations, 3 bets, 2 and one winning night.
- 3:55We got to be happy about that because we know it's hard to win
- 3:58overcome the juice all that. But there's sometimes you go
- 4:002:00 and 1:00 and you're kind of annoyed.
- 4:01I'm two and one annoyed because of the Guardians last night, two
- 4:04nights in a row where we we lose with the Guardians.
- 4:08And what was even more annoying about that one, they lose six to
- 4:11five against the Mets and extra innings.
- 4:13But they had a 5 to 4 lead going into the 9th inning with Cade
- 4:17Smith on the bump who's one of the best closers in baseball.
- 4:20And guy just kept getting giving up hits, walks.
- 4:22I mean, ridiculous there that one of the best closers blew it
- 4:25for us. And then of course, you know,
- 4:28the Guardians give up one run in the 10th and you're like, OK,
- 4:31you can, you can score one, at least push it to the 11th.
- 4:33First guy up, Stephen Kwan tries to bunt, pops it up.
- 4:36You pop up a bunt to the third baseman, he catches it.
- 4:38That was pathetic. So Guardians, you're on my no
- 4:41bet list here for a little bit. But as always, trying to produce
- 4:44a winning night 2 and 1 + 0.63 units.
- 4:47That's exactly what we did. So without further ado, let's
- 4:50get to our plays for today. Now I want to leave the NFL Hall
- 4:53of Fame game bet toward the end. That's going to be the big one
- 4:56here. I just will always remind
- 4:57everybody that every bet we always make, no matter what it
- 5:00is, spread money, line, total, whatever the sport, you're
- 5:02always risking 1 unit. So I'm going to save the Hall of
- 5:04Fame game. That's special because we have
- 5:06football back in our lives, but it's risking 1 unit just like
- 5:09any of these other MLB plays. But let's let's see if that
- 5:12football game best bet there for the end because we're running
- 5:15hot and MLB and let's see if we can keep it going.
- 5:18So first one on the board for me.
- 5:19This is a late afternoon match up here.
- 5:22Look at a 4:10 PM Eastern Time first pitch where the Detroit
- 5:26Tigers are visiting the Seattle Mariners going right back to to
- 5:30the scene of the crime or the scene of the what's the opposite
- 5:32of a crime? Something good that happened
- 5:33because Seattle won for us. But going right back to the
- 5:35well, maybe that's what I was looking for in the Pacific
- 5:38Northwest. So setting the stage for this
- 5:41one. This is the rubber match of a
- 5:42three-game series. The Tigers who are 55 and 59,
- 5:45they won the opener 8. Nothing came through as a + 110
- 5:48row dog. Then the Mariners, who are 56
- 5:50and 59, they came through for us last night, four to two win,
- 5:54hung on as a -, 150 home favorite.
- 5:56So in this late afternoon series finale, the Tigers are starting
- 5:59the lefty Framber Valdez. He is 6 and seven with a 4.41
- 6:04ERA. Meanwhile, Mariners are going
- 6:06with the righty Bryce Miller. He's four and five with a 2.8 O
- 6:09ERA now. What have we seen across the
- 6:11market? This game open Seattle very
- 6:13short -120 home favorite Detroit around a + 100 row dog.
- 6:18And not the biggest move in the world, but all movement
- 6:20liability has been toward the Mariners.
- 6:22Mariners have moved up a little bit -120 up to -125 I'm seeing a
- 6:26few shops inch up toward -130 so not a 10/20/30 cents team move,
- 6:32but all movement liability in favor of Seattle.
- 6:34It's not like this game has gotten down to a pick.
- 6:36It's actually just crept up further toward the Mariners.
- 6:38So that's my first indicator here where Mariners are the play
- 6:41for me. But if we keep cruising, good
- 6:43bet split at circa 82% bets, nearly 90% money line dollars on
- 6:48Seattle, that tells me you got a big, big, heavy preponderance of
- 6:52smart money out in Vegas from the sharps in the desert going
- 6:55with Seattle. So you have the line move.
- 6:56We got the bet split. Then we get to our system
- 6:59matches. First one will be just very
- 7:01basic non division favorite, lack of familiarity, benefiting
- 7:05quote UN quote the better team. But then we get into some other
- 7:07system matches. This one is 1 that I really like
- 7:10here when both teams are below 500.
- 7:12So 2 teams, both losing records. Take the home favorite if
- 7:15they're, if they're -140 or less if they're kind of moderately
- 7:18priced or it's kind of a short chalk price.
- 7:21That system is 81 and 5958 percent, 4% ROI this year.
- 7:26Now, if both teams are below 500, you take the home favorite
- 7:29-140 or less, and that team's coming off a win.
- 7:32So you add the element of, you know, momentum.
- 7:34Hopefully that system gets even better.
- 7:37It's 45 and 2663% with a 14% ROI this year.
- 7:42If you are a sweet spot, home favorite -125 to -140 who made
- 7:46the postseason the previous year facing an opponent who also made
- 7:50the postseason the previous year.
- 7:52That system is 58 and 3163 percent, 15% ROI this year.
- 7:57Also doesn't hurt we have some correlative betting value
- 8:00favorite here with Seattle short favorite around -125 but the
- 8:03total in this one is 8 or 7 1/2. So fair amount of expected runs
- 8:07scored more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
- 8:11Now, Bryce Miller on the road, 4 point O2 ERA, not great, but at
- 8:15home 1.34. Now last night, Brian Wu, if you
- 8:18watch that game, we remember we talked about how he was great at
- 8:21home and terrible on the road. He had an ERA of like 2 at home
- 8:24and like 7 or 8 on the road. We pitched the gem last night.
- 8:28Same thing with Miller, 1.34 at home, 4 point O2 on the road.
- 8:32So hopefully Miller can pitch well tonight.
- 8:34Framber Valdez, remember they gave him a big contract in the
- 8:36offseason. His last 15 starts.
- 8:39Tigers are 4 and 11, so hopefully that continues where
- 8:42he doesn't lead them to victory. Also home Rd.
- 8:45We got the Mariners 33 and 25 at home.
- 8:47Good winning home record. Tigers 25 and 32 on the road, so
- 8:51rubber match, but a little movement towards Seattle.
- 8:54Good bet splits at Circa lot of good system matches.
- 8:57Hopefully Miller greater than Valdez and oh by the way, popped
- 9:00open juice reel or sorry popped open rhythm and noticed one
- 9:04rhythm recommendation on Seattle, but it wasn't just a
- 9:06generic lean. It was a green star smart
- 9:09signal. So the AI model seems to like
- 9:12Seattle that that is a good sign for us.
- 9:14So first better for us guys would be nice.
- 9:16We could start the day off with a winner.
- 9:18I took Seattle -122 at FanDuel, shop around, a lot of books
- 9:23closer to -125 let's go EMS next one for you, 7:10 PM Eastern
- 9:29Time, first pitch. Let's go right back to Fenway.
- 9:31POC Chicago White Sox at the Boston Red Sox.
- 9:35Now the Sox unbelievably 62 and 5111 games over 500.
- 9:39I think they're what are they 29 and four in their last
- 9:43something. It's getting ridiculous at this
- 9:45point, but they've won the first two games of this three-game
- 9:47set. They cruised in the opener 14 to
- 9:502 as a -150 home favorite. One again for us yesterday for
- 9:54nothing as a -, 150 home favorite in tonight's series
- 9:57finale. White Sox are who are 59 and 54.
- 10:01They are going with the newly acquired Luis Castillo picked
- 10:03him up at the deadline from the Mariners.
- 10:05He's 3:00 and 9:00 with a 5 point O 6 ERA.
- 10:08Red Sox meanwhile, going with the lefty Ranger Suarez.
- 10:11He's four and three with a 3.15 ERA.
- 10:14What? Have we seen across the market?
- 10:16This game open Red Sox around a -, 175 home favorite, Chicago
- 10:20around a + 155 road dog. And you know what the sharps are
- 10:23saying? The public's saying just ride
- 10:25the Red Sox because they can't lose.
- 10:26But sharps are saying, yeah, we kind of like the Red Sox too,
- 10:29because we've seen this line move further toward Boston -175
- 10:33now up to -180 I'm seeing some shops as high as -190 So the
- 10:37line has gone further toward Boston at Circa.
- 10:40Great split on the on the Sox 80% bets 93% dollars.
- 10:45A lot of system matches non division favorite but then also
- 10:48both teams are above 500. This is one of our favorite
- 10:50systems this year. Just take the team receiving
- 10:53line movement. That system is 162 and one O 361
- 10:57percent 11%. ROII want to fade Castillo.
- 11:00I know it's his debut with the new team but it really hasn't
- 11:03pitched well this year, especially on in night games.
- 11:06Night games he has an ERA of 5.56 during the day 3.98.
- 11:11Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez, the Sox gave big money too in the
- 11:14offseason. Red Sox are 6 and one in his
- 11:16last seven starts. White Sox also only hitting 236
- 11:20against lefties. That's 22nd in baseball toward
- 11:22the bottom. I can give you so many angles on
- 11:24the Red Sox being so great right now.
- 11:27One thing I notice is they're starting to hit the ball.
- 11:29Hitting 261 since the All Star break.
- 11:31That's eighth best in baseball. White Sox starting 217 since the
- 11:34break. That ranks 27th.
- 11:37Red Sox have the better bullpen as well.
- 11:38ERA of 2.9 O number one in baseball versus 3.82 for
- 11:43Chicago, which ranks 10th. So I tell you what, guys, if the
- 11:46Red Sox, the way they're playing are getting line movement in
- 11:50their favor, which they are, have a good sharp split, which
- 11:52they have, and have a bunch of system matches, I'm going to
- 11:55keep riding them. So I did take the Red Sox.
- 11:58I used an odds boost here from FanDuel at the time.
- 12:01They were, I think -177 I got them down to -141 that was an
- 12:07odds boost. Definitely shop around though.
- 12:09Looks like around -180 is your best number.
- 12:11Again, bigger, bigger number here, but hopefully you can, you
- 12:14can get a booster and get you something -180 ish.
- 12:17But let's go Red Sox and oh, by the way, one rhythm
- 12:20recommendation lighting up on Boston as well.
- 12:23But let's keep rolling, let's keep winning, let's go Red Sox,
- 12:27last one for you, Kansas City Royals hosting the Minnesota
- 12:30Twins Battle of the AL Central at 7:30 PM Eastern Time tonight.
- 12:35Now the Royals come in 48 and 67.
- 12:39Bad record, but they did take the first two games of this
- 12:41three-game series. They won the opener 8:00 to 2:00
- 12:43as a + 125 home dog. They won again yesterday 2 to
- 12:46one as a -, 115 home favorite. Now the Twins who are 56 and 59
- 12:52tonight they will send out Bailey Ober the righty.
- 12:55He's seven and three with a 4.45 ERA.
- 12:58Royals, meanwhile, going with the righty Michael Waka.
- 13:00He is five and eight with a 3.51 ERA now.
- 13:04What have we seen across the market here?
- 13:05Well, you would think, hey, you know, Minnesota's got a better
- 13:08record than Casey. Casey's won the 1st 2.
- 13:11No way Casey can sweep. Minnesota's got to win this one,
- 13:13right? Kind of that gambler's fallacy,
- 13:15which reared its ugly header in a good way.
- 13:17If you're aware of the fallacy with that Dodgers Cubs game that
- 13:20we bet on where, you know, if it was the opener and actually Cubs
- 13:24end up sweeping that series, but the Dodgers had just gotten
- 13:27swept by the Red Sox. There's no way Dodgers lose four
- 13:30in a row. But the smart money was toward
- 13:32Chicago, came through. Well, same thing here.
- 13:35Both these teams aren't very good, but Minnesota better
- 13:37record. They can't get swept.
- 13:38They got to win today, right? Well, here's the thing.
- 13:40Line has moved toward Kansas City.
- 13:42KS City's gone from -115 short home favorite to now around -120
- 13:48I'm seeing some shops even -125 Kansas City 67% bets 70% dollars
- 13:54at DK at Circa 69% bets 79% dollars.
- 13:59So lines going toward Kansas City low bets higher dollars at
- 14:02DK and circa on Kansas City. Then we get into our system
- 14:05matches. Both teams below 500, both
- 14:08missed the playoffs. Take the home favorite 41 and
- 14:112265% thirteen percent ROI this year.
- 14:16Now waka, he has a three-point O3 ERA at home, 2.8 O ERA at
- 14:21night. Both pretty good on the road,
- 14:233.87 in the day, 4.7 O. So he's been worse on the road
- 14:27and in day games. He's been good at home and at
- 14:30night and he's home at night tonight.
- 14:32You know, Bailey over 2.72 ERA at home pretty good, but on the
- 14:35road 7.15 S on a fade over on a back walk at home and at night.
- 14:41Royals actually a winning record at home 28 and 27 Twins 26 and
- 14:4632 on the road, a losing Rd. record.
- 14:48Kansas City, meanwhile, 8 and four against Minnesota this
- 14:51year. It doesn't hurt that Bobby Witt
- 14:53junior just came off the injured list.
- 14:55So hopefully that's a little shot in the arm as well.
- 14:58So again, not the most popular game of the night, but looks
- 15:00like Kansas City Sharp. Oh by the way, noticed a 13%
- 15:05sharp mush edge in favor of the Kansas City Royals, so add it
- 15:09all up here guys. Taking a shot on KCKCI, got them
- 15:13-120 at FanDuel. Definitely shot Brown, that
- 15:16should be pretty available, but some books closer to -125 so
- 15:20just try to get the best juice you can there.
- 15:22So Seattle, Boston, Kansas City, see if we can get 2 out of 3.
- 15:27Eek out a winning day now. Drum roll, please.
- 15:32NF LS back. That's right.
- 15:34Waited until the end of the pot to talk about this.
- 15:35But man, you know, win, lose or draw again, If you don't want to
- 15:38bet this game, that's fine. I think you make a case.
- 15:41Hey, you know, just sit back. We don't have a lot of
- 15:43information on this game. We don't know exactly who's
- 15:45playing or not. Maybe you just want to watch the
- 15:47game as a fan, You want to brush up on, you know, the way you
- 15:50sweat NFL, thinking about key numbers, depth charts, all that,
- 15:54totally fine. But when I'm looking at a game
- 15:57and I'm thinking to myself, OK, is this worthy of betting on?
- 15:59I always ask myself, do I have an edge if I feel like I don't
- 16:02have an edge if I'm betting, you know, because I got nothing to
- 16:05do, I'm home alone and the game's on.
- 16:07That's not a good. That's not an edge.
- 16:08It's not a reason to bet the game.
- 16:10But if you can lean on the data and the numbers are all pointing
- 16:13in One Direction, then to me, it's worthy of firing on.
- 16:16So here's my plate for the Hall of Fame game tonight, 8:00
- 16:19Eastern Time, Tom Benson Stadium, Canton, OH Panthers
- 16:24have Kikli going into the Hall of Fame.
- 16:25Arizona Cardinals have Larry Fitzgerald, but my play for
- 16:30tonight is Cardinals plus 1 1/2. Now I'm going to give you my my
- 16:35thought process here. Number one, we'll we'll talk
- 16:38about the data #2 we'll talk about kind of another factor
- 16:41here, which I think you got to take into account.
- 16:43When it comes to the data, though, I'm looking at the
- 16:46Arizona Cardinals as being the sharp play.
- 16:49Couple things going on right now.
- 16:50One, the bet splits look really good on the Cardinals.
- 16:54They actually open plus 1 1/2. You can still get them plus 1
- 16:581/2 at a lot of few shops, but they are down to plus one at
- 17:02some shops. So right off the bat, when they
- 17:05open plus 1 1/2 and they're either the same or down to one,
- 17:09that tells me liabilities on their side.
- 17:10If this was, you know, Carolina Panthers open -1 now it's up to
- 17:141 1/2 or it's 1 1/2 everywhere and some books are at 2, that
- 17:18would show liability Carolina. But just reading between the
- 17:21basic standpoint of, OK, you know, which side is getting
- 17:24juiced up, which side has a, you know, a line move in their
- 17:28favorite, which technically would be Arizona because they
- 17:30open plus 1 1/2. Some books they're down to 1.
- 17:33So that's my first angle. OK, liability, Arizona.
- 17:35Then we look at the splits at DraftKings right now, 51% of
- 17:40spread bets, but 73% of spread dollars are on Arizona.
- 17:46So Publix right down the middle. But the three out of $4.00 are
- 17:49on Arizona. Then we get to the money line,
- 17:5242% bets, 82% dollars. So both DK spread and money line
- 17:58are low bets, higher dollars, which you always look for in
- 18:01favor of Arizona. Then I got an e-mail from my
- 18:04buddy John Ewing from Bet MGM and he posted at Bet MGM the
- 18:09Cardinals are getting 42% of spread bets but 82% of spread
- 18:14dollars. So both Bet MGM and DK have low
- 18:18bets, higher dollars on Arizona. Arizona's either stayed the same
- 18:21plus 1 1/2 forgotten down to 1. So we're building a case here
- 18:24where Arizona looks to be sharp. Then we get into some historical
- 18:28trends. I was looking up the performance
- 18:31of dogs here recently and since 2013, dogs in the Hall of Fame
- 18:36game are 8, two and one against the spread.
- 18:38So in this spot, taking the team getting points has been
- 18:42profitable. They're actually seven and four
- 18:44straight up as well, which you would have made more with, you
- 18:47know, the money line there. So we have low bets, higher
- 18:50dollars. We have liability and movement
- 18:52toward Arizona. We have historically dogs in the
- 18:55spot performing well. Then we get into kind of some
- 18:59supplementary factors. So as you think about these
- 19:01games and pre season, a lot of times it's motivation to me.
- 19:05Arizona's the more motivated team because they have a new
- 19:08coach. They have Mike Lafleur as their
- 19:10new coach. When you are a new coach and
- 19:13it's your first game coaching your new team, you know, do you
- 19:16want to look like crap and have everyone question whether you're
- 19:19in over your head? No, you want to perform well.
- 19:22It's important to you to get off on the right foot.
- 19:24It's important to create some buy in.
- 19:26So the fact that the Cardinals have a new coach and they were
- 19:29terrible last year, 3 and 14, would lead me to believe that
- 19:34they're going to take this game a little more seriously because
- 19:36Lafleur has something on the line.
- 19:38Then you look at Dave Canales with the Carolina Panthers, they
- 19:42went 89 last year. It was a terrible division, NFC
- 19:44South, but they won their division.
- 19:47You know, they went to the playoffs.
- 19:48They also suffered a bunch of injuries.
- 19:50Knicks score in Brazil, that new rookie wide receiver from
- 19:54Tennessee. I was reading about how they've
- 19:56had all these injuries in the preseason and basically they're
- 19:59not going to play anyone that they care about.
- 20:02And like, you're not going to see Bryce Young, obviously, but
- 20:05they're kind of wary of injuries.
- 20:07And I just want to get in and out of this game.
- 20:09Whereas the Cardinals have something to play for.
- 20:13So that's another angle. Then we look at the
- 20:15quarterbacks. You got to pay attention to the
- 20:17QBs Carolina has Kenny Pickett, who has experience, and then
- 20:20it's going to be Haynes, the mobile QB from Georgia Tech
- 20:23Looks like he's going to play a lot in the second-half.
- 20:26But we have Carson Beck likely probably going to start here for
- 20:31Arizona. You're hearing good things about
- 20:32him. He's in.
- 20:33He's a rookie, but he's older. And again, Berset's your
- 20:36starter. But you know, if Beck plays
- 20:38well, that's kind of an open job a little bit.
- 20:40I don't think you know, Berset is your long term answer.
- 20:43So it's important for Beck to to perform well.
- 20:46And Keaton Slovis, who was I think, you know, USC was highly
- 20:49touted at one point, looks like he's going to be the backup.
- 20:52So we have really, to me, the combination of the sharp bet
- 20:56splits with the line movement liability with new head coach,
- 21:01new culture dogs doing well historically in this game, all
- 21:05pointing to me to take the Arizona Cardinals plus 1 1/2.
- 21:09So last angle would be OK, Where can we find the best number?
- 21:14Caesar's bet MGM, they're both plus one FanDuel.
- 21:18The score, let's see, DK are all plus 1 1/2, but the score in DK
- 21:23are plus 1 1/2 -, 115. I found FanDuel for Arizona plus
- 21:271 1/2 at -1 O 8. So if you want to sweat the game
- 21:31tonight, I'm going with the dog, I'm going with the bird,
- 21:34actually, the Arizona Cardinal. Let's see if we can get a
- 21:37Cardinals win or lose by 1. Again, lose by one might not
- 21:42seem likely, but the hook could be important.
- 21:44Missed kicks, safeties, you never know.
- 21:47But there's my case. A DD analytics plus, you know, X
- 21:50Factor analysis here for this match up.
- 21:53So you got all up here, guys. I'm going Cardinals first NFL
- 21:56bet of the year in the Hall of Fame game plus 1 1/2.
- 21:59So that about does it for episode. 561 of the all systems
- 22:03go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 22:05This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
- 22:07always start first by saying thank you.
- 22:10Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
- 22:12grinding in the arena with me every single day through the UPS
- 22:15and the downs, the good and the bad, the hot streaks, the cold
- 22:18streaks. If you do enjoy this pod,
- 22:20hopefully you value the insights you want to learn more about
- 22:23data-driven betting. Hopefully.
- 22:24Well, first, I'd love for you to help me grow this podcast.
- 22:27Could you give it a five star review?
- 22:28Spotify or iTunes? Could you recommend the pod to a
- 22:31friend? Retweet or like the pod, leave a
- 22:34comment under the review section.
- 22:36Any or all those things would be very much appreciated.
- 22:38Like I said, if you enjoy this pod and you want to learn more
- 22:41about data-driven betting, I got something you should check out.
- 22:43I've written two books. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
- 22:46the everything guide to sports betting or the NFL sharp betting
- 22:49playbook. I highly recommend the NFL Sharp
- 22:52Betting playbook right now because you know, football's in
- 22:54the air. You can kind of get back into
- 22:56the swing of betting. NFLI got actually preseason
- 22:58Nuggets in there as well. I would, if you want to grab one
- 23:01or both of my books, bring them to the sports book.
- 23:03I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
- 23:06ale and we'll sweat some football and baseball together
- 23:08tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
- 23:10and Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
- 23:13apps. They help me win.
- 23:14They're going to help you win. So to me, they're just another
- 23:17great box to check off when you're building your case,
- 23:19deciding whether or not to get down rhythm for their AI backed
- 23:23models and predictions for game bets and player props.
- 23:25And then juice reel. So many great features.
- 23:28The Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
- 23:31arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line futures.
- 23:34And if you feel so generous and you enjoy the pod and it's free
- 23:38listening to my voice, it cost you nothing.
- 23:40It's free repay the favor get a week or more of my best bet
- 23:43picks directly from Juice reel. You just download juice reel,
- 23:47you click buy sell bottom right corner in little search box type
- 23:50in ASG you'll find my account. You'll get the best bets as soon
- 23:54as I make them. Hopefully beat some closing
- 23:56lines and you will also contribute to my daughter's
- 23:59childcare fund, which sooner or later we're going to have to
- 24:02bite the bullet on that one. But you will get every best bet
- 24:05for me for $9.99 a week. So 10 bucks a week or $24.99 a
- 24:11month, 25 bucks a month. Again, every best bet, you will
- 24:15get them directly to the ASG page on Juice Reel.
- 24:18And I would very much appreciate any of you who are thinking of
- 24:20signing up and really thank you to everyone who has gotten a
- 24:23week or more of those best bets. But give both Rhythm and Juice
- 24:27Reel A5 star review in the App Store.
- 24:29Next. Do you have a live odds page?
- 24:32Well, if you don't have one, you need one.
- 24:33It's such a critical tool. It's so important, especially
- 24:35with football getting hooks key numbers.
- 24:38You got to be able to track the market in real time.
- 24:40OK, what are all the games I can bet on today?
- 24:42Let's see every game all the all the different sports start
- 24:45times, live scoring live in game wagering odds.
- 24:48You'll also be able to shop for the best line compare open the
- 24:52current identify steam coming in.
- 24:54You got to have a live odds page because it allows you insight
- 24:57into what the betting market is doing in real time.
- 25:00So if you ever need a live odds page, I would give a shot to
- 25:03odds logic. It's the best one around.
- 25:05You can use this special link odds logic.com/josh 123 that'll
- 25:11give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month of
- 25:15service. So that about does it for
- 25:17episode. 561 of the ASG pod on a big baseball and return of
- 25:21football day. As always guys, two final
- 25:23thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
- 25:25Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
- 25:28Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
- 25:30Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park,
- 25:33Casino, MGM Springfield, or the Nash and my neck of the woods on
- 25:36the border of Massachusetts and New Hampshire around the desert
- 25:40where the true grinders get down.
- 25:41Or Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest juice
- 25:44possible is found at the South Point.
- 25:45Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
- 25:48swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
- 25:50Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
- 25:53Show me a beautiful Red Sox ticket.
- 25:55A beautiful Mariners ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
- 25:58you. We'll post about the book
- 26:00Sweatsharp Contrarian Plays all night long.
- 26:03So how about a dozen guys? Coming off a two and one or A1
- 26:05and 2A3 and O or an O and three, A good night, a bad night, a hot
- 26:08streak, a cold streak, whether everything's going our way or
- 26:11nothing's going our way. We just got to stick to the
- 26:13model, stick to the blueprint. We can't get too high when
- 26:16things are good, we can't get too low when things are bad.
- 26:19We just got to stay the course, keep grinding and think long
- 26:21term. Always looking for those system
- 26:23matches, games that are against the public, with the house, with
- 26:26the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and getting some CLV.
- 26:29If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
- 26:33So hope everyone has a fantastic Thursday.
- 26:36Enjoy the return of NFL. It's back in our lives, which is
- 26:39awesome and hopefully we'll get some winners tonight and then
- 26:41get right back to it tomorrow for a big Friday edition.
- 26:44That'll be episode 562 of the All Systems Go sports betting
- 26:48podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
- 26:52great Thursday night.