Latest / The Specific Jawns / Welcome To Dead October
Transcript
- Pat Barker: Well, that didn't take long. Welcome to the first official Specific Johns Podcast, the your premier podcast for all things Philadelphia Phillies. The first official podcast after the season ends. I'm your host, Pat Barker, joined as always by my good friends, my co-hosts, my fellow specific Johns, Carl Bakudi and Mike Sambuco. ⁓ this was supposed to be the episode where we were really diving into the postseason. Instead, it is a postmortem. The Philly season is over. After dropping two out of three to the Braves in the wild card series. We're gonna get into all of it. ⁓ but before we do, and I I think I already know the answer to this question, but let me throw it out there anyway. How you guys doing? Carl: Heartbroken, despondent. But I've been here before. I mean, I don't feel any worse than I did the past four seasons. So, you know, there's a bright side to everything, right? Pat Barker: Yeah, yeah, this this team definitely has the ⁓ the the vibes of that meme with the the guys in the guillotines or the you know, nooses or whatever and the guys like first time. ⁓ yeah. I hear ya. What about you, Mike? Mike Sambuco: You know, this is definitely never fun to end a season with such high expectations at the beginning of it with ⁓ finish in the wild card round. But ⁓ it it definitely is not the most painful during this run. ⁓ it's definitely not the least painful either. But you know, y you get to a point where you're in the postseason five years in a row and Yeah, you y your expectations are still high every year and not getting it done wears on you. Pat Barker: Yeah, I think that ⁓ maybe as a whole this series loss was not the most painful. I feel like game one was a soul crusher. ⁓ and then the Phillies have this innate ability to you know, they use the phrase flush it all the time. And I've never seen a an individual or a team or a collection of anybody. be able to just go through catastrophic loss after catastrophic loss and then come out the next day and just factory reset to zero. They come out and they even from inning to inning when you think about the and we'll get into all of it, but the Harper error immediately followed by the back-to-back homers, it's it's uncanny. ⁓ it's it's borderline sociopathic. ⁓ but, you know, I I think that the game three loss at least for me wasn't as kind of like crippling because the second they fell behind, I was like, ⁓ right, this makes sense. This is this is where we're supposed to be. ⁓ and then you had a nice kinda like eight inning crash pad to land on to where by the time the game ended you're like, Yeah, that went exactly how it was supposed to, you know? Carl: Yeah, it it was a therapeutic favor of of theirs ⁓ for us to to to tank so early in game three. I I think we'd be speaking of this much differently if that game was close through six. Pat Barker: Yeah. Yeah. I mean i i it the the loss going the way it did in game three kind of takes us back to where everybody was after game one hundred sixty one in terms of like looking towards the future. We're not gonna get into all that today. Our next episode will really start to break down what's next for this team. ⁓ Mike Sambuco: Yeah. Pat Barker: And get into the offseason and all that stuff. For this episode, we're we're just gonna focus on what just happened, the three games with Atlanta. ⁓ and before we get into the games in a little bit more detail, I'm just gonna start with a general question for you guys because I wanna see if you're on the same page with me. Here's the question: what was your biggest takeaway in totality from that series? Carl: We lost this series in December of twenty twenty five. We we lost this series in the off season. Reap what you sow. ⁓ when you don't have depth, when you you you you don't address constant repr repeated flaws, ⁓ you end up seeing them rear their ugly heads again, ⁓ it in in a clutch series like this against a division rival who knows you. ⁓ ⁓ of course they found ways to do it slightly differently, which is kind of what I got to in the last episode. ⁓ but you knew it was coming. And yeah, ⁓ it it everything felt like chickens come to home the roost, whate whatever idiom you want to use. ⁓ it it just felt like closure on a an original sin, which was the twenty twenty five to six off season. Mike Sambuco: Yeah, for me it was that every single issue that they had in the regular season was popped up and was magnified in the postseason. Not one issue they were able to overcome. Whether that's the lack of bullpen depth, the poor offensive approach, ⁓ first half NOLA struggle struggles came back to bite them, ⁓ insufficient off season and trade deadline. It's a severely flawed team in the r in the regular season that we still got our hopes up for in the postseason and nothing changed. Pat Barker: Yeah, I mean I I think you guys are kinda echoing my sentiments. It's like, ⁓ my thing was just really simple. They're just not good enough. They're they're just not good enough. They're that's not to say they're not a good team. I think they are a good team. ⁓ but they're not a championship caliber team. And one of the things that I love about baseball is that A good team can get hot and do some special things in a month. The 2022 Phillies are a perfect example. They were a good team that completely outkicked the coverage. They went further than anyone expected them to. And it's one of the most fun things in sports when your team can make a run like that. But this team, even if they had made a run like that, they're not a fundamentally good team. It's not. It's not a cohesive lineup. It's not a cohesive group of guys in the field. ⁓ there's no real identity to this team outside of the starting pitching. it's just very top-heavy. They have like six really, really, really good players, and everybody else is just kind of fine. And like you can you can win a championship with guys who are fine. This is not a knock on anybody it's not to say like, ⁓ you can't win a championship with Alec Bone. Sure you can. He just can't be your third best player, right? ⁓ so that was what hit me is that they just they weren't good enough. And if you don't have the magic, then if you're not good enough, you lose in the playoffs. ⁓ I I did have one anecdote I wanted to share, and this is maybe a little bit dark, and I apologize if this is not your thing, but ⁓ quick story. Back in twenty ten, ⁓ my dad died suddenly, heart attack, sixty-one years old, and my brother found him and called me ⁓ and asked me to come over, but he didn't want me to be ⁓ upset as I drove because it was like a fifteen to twenty minute drive. So he said he didn't tell me that he had died. He said, Hey, dad fell, we called the paramedics, they're coming out, can you come over and help me? And I said, Sure. And on that 15 to 20 minute drive, I started thinking about what life was going to be with my dad going forward. I'm like, well, this is the start of him getting old. He's probably gonna need assistance. Depending on how bad the fall is, he might need a cane. We might have to, you know, down the line, he might have to go into a home. You're gonna have to be more present. You're gonna have to do this and that. And then I get and they say, ⁓ he's gone. My point is, my dad died like the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies. But for fifteen to twenty minutes I was mentally preparing for the twenty twenty-four to twenty twenty six Phillies. Where You know the end is near. There's some highs, there's some lows, there's a lot more suffering that way, but like the good stuff, is it worth it? And like I spent a few days like kicking that around. Like, what is truly the better scenario? I still don't know the answer. I don't have a conclusion to this little thing. ⁓ I just ⁓ you know, I thought this podcast wasn't depressing enough and I wanted to bring it down a little bit further to start. So anyway, ⁓ take of that what you will. ⁓ Carl: Yeah. Pat Barker: The the ⁓ yeah, the dad metaphor. I think there's something in there, it's up to you guys to figure out what it is. Bottom line, Phillies were not good enough and ⁓ they they are not playing baseball anymore. So ⁓ let's get into the actual games. Let's just kind of break this thing down. And I I I wanna put this out there. There are reports that Don Mattingley will not be back next year. It's gonna be a mutual ⁓ agreement for him to ride off into the sunset, get another job within the organization. We're not gonna get into that because those reports are unconfirmed and we we'll have more episodes where we could talk about it. But obviously we're gonna have to talk a lot about Mattingly because there were a lot of decisions made in this series and frankly the week before that you know led to some of the decisions he ended up making. So let's just get into him. Game one First big decision, he goes with Jesus Lazardo on essentially one day rest. Lazardo threw an inning in game 162. Luzardo rewards him handsomely, comes out, throws five scoreless innings. First inning, the Phillies get to Chris Sale. Alec Bohm hits a pitch ⁓ four feet above the ⁓ off the ground. at his eyes, hits it for a double, Phillies take a lead. Fast forward to the bottom of the sixth with Lozardo out of the game. ⁓ Now you have the RBI triple from Albies that went off of Derek Hill's glove, as Derek Hill's glove started to slip off of his hand as he jumped. Very unfortunate. That was off of Alec McFarlane. That made it two to one. And then JT comes back in the top of the seventh, the big two-out, two-run ⁓ triple to make it three to two. Then they make another ⁓ big risky decision. They go to Johan Duran in the seventh. He breezes through the seventh, gets the first two guys out in the eighth, albeit with almost getting decapitated by a Matt Olson line drive. But he gets the first two outs, then he gives up a little dribbler of a single to Michael Harris. He hits Ozzie Albys with a three two pitch. ⁓ and then on the first pitch, Austin Riley takes a center cut fastball, hits it out to right center. Five three Braves. That's the final. You guys remember it was a brutal, brutal, brutal loss. ⁓ Take it away. What are your thoughts? Carl: Mike, I'll start if you don't mind. We beat Chris Sale. I I I I if you had told me that we would have, you know, through six innings, seven innings, whatever it was, beaten Chris Sale three to two, I would have said, Hell yeah, we're winning the game, we're winning the series. That that was that was the one way to lock in a victory in this wild card set. ⁓ you know, the the the Duran decision by Mattingley, I'm fine with. I'm fine with I'm it's unclear exactly what his plans were for that third and final inning ⁓ in relief, whether they're gonna pull him or put somebody else in in the ninth, his pitch count was climbing. The bloop single, ⁓ whatever you want to call that, you know, that that started that little mini rally in the in ⁓ in the eighth inning, ⁓ that happens. You know, you you the guys are are pros, they know how to recoup from that. The hit by pitch wa was a mess, but Duran is is prone to that, and I would much rather him at that point in the game miss a way out of the zone than in it. Which brings me to my next point. You've got your closer, your primetime closer, with 20 some pitches and climbing, two outs, ready to be done with this inning with a lead. And they decide to do a mound visit. And I was furious. about that mountain visit. I'm not sure anyone else really reacted to it. I didn't hear much from the commentators on TV, but you don't give a guy pause there in that frame. You're either going to pull him or you're going to let him fire away. This is again, this is a veteran primetime closer. ⁓ going righty on righty against Austin Riley. ⁓ you know, y let him let him cook and surrender your fate to what he's going to do, which you did anyway. He threw an absolute meatball center cut that Riley took yard for a three run bomb. It's those little things that like, you know, we talk about th this team wasn't good enough, whatever. You still had to to have that faith, you know, as a fan or not, this team was good enough to, you know, th the margins were razor thin. You can't make key mistakes. And that was the first one in this series in my mind that was made. We ⁓ you know we we we took a a a whatever the phrase is, grabbed ⁓ defeat out of the jaws of victory. ⁓ and it was it was brutal. It was brutal because I really felt like the rhythm was disrupted and Duran was was set up to s to to fire that ball right down the middle. Whether you would have done so without a mound visit or not, obviously we'll never know. ⁓ but in my experience with a closer, no, you you let him fire or you pull him right then and there. Mike Sambuco: F for me, I I still quite honestly don't understand what the end game was if Duran i makes it through the eighth even. Like is he gumin for the ninth? If not who? And and and that is why for me ⁓ you either keep McFarlane in or you bring in Painter for an inning to get you through the seventh, and then you take Duran in the into the eighth and ninth. I he clearly was gassed during that inning and to the point where like he was out for game two. ⁓ and and there was even question about game three. That's how much he was gassed. ⁓ he ended up pitching in game three. That's that's a different story. But it highlights how poorly this bullpen was constructed. That Mattingly had nobody else to trust in the seventh inning. And y you know, we can come up with ideas like Painter in the seventh or McFarlane again in the seventh. But at the end of the day there's no great answer. He we needed four bullpen innings in game one and didn't have the guys to do it. And so we we we can come in and critique Mattingley as much as we want, but this is not all on him. Pat Barker: No, I don't think it's I don't think game one is at all on him. I I put none of the blame on Mattingley for game one. He rode the Carl Bakuti blueprint that I never thought in a million years would work, asking Lazardo to give him five innings. Carl, you came on this podcast and you said we we're gonna go up to Lazardo and be like, we need five innings. And I laughed. I was like, that's the craziest thing I've ever heard. Guys, coming off the I. L, he just pitched two days ago. And I know it was only four pitches, but you there's warm-up involved in that and everything. Like, there's no way he'll be able to go five. He went five. He went five. I think I put all of the blame on Dombrowski. Every move that Mattingley made, with the exception of one, and we'll get there. Every move that he made was made from a place of desperation. And it was made from a place of desperation because he didn't have any good options. And I don't think I think the reason he didn't go to Painter in the seventh is because he didn't trust Painter. He was forced, and I'm getting ahead of myself here, but he was forced to trust Painter in game two because Duran was unavailable and Painter rewarded it. But I think in game one I don't think he trusted Painter enough. I think he trusted McFarlane. He put a rookie out there and McFarlane, yeah, Hill almost caught the ball. It was two feet away from being a home run. So that's not really even if Hill had caught it, it's not, it doesn't look great for McFarlane. I think Mattingley saw that ball come off of Ozzie Albee's bat, and he said, No. No, I got one guy out there I trust. I'm gonna put him in. And I don't even have a plan. I don't even think he had a plan. I think he was like, I just know that if I don't put this guy out there right now, we're gonna be down five by the time we come up to bat again. I think that was his entire mindset. And I don't blame him for making any of those moves. I really don't. I thought he did great. Carl: Yeah, and conversely, I I think Mattingly made a field call there. I I'm not sure if his plan was Duran ⁓ in the seventh or not. ⁓ but he i i if you look at the way that went, like I said, we beat Chris Sale. Like i in in the time that Chris Sale was in the game, we won the game. You've got the Braves that that suddenly you know those thoughts started to creep in their heads that that we've had their number in the postseason. That, you know, whether they win the division or not, we can wipe them out in one fell swoop. And if we had gotten through those two innings with Duran clean with a lead, I think Mattingley's thinking these guys are gonna be they're gonna be cooked. We're gonna be able to send, you know, maybe not our best option out there to close it out in the ninth. ⁓ they're gonna roll over and you know, we're gonna take a one-nothing lead and probably win the series. I think he was in that mode at the end of the sixth. So ⁓ Yeah, for for all the reasons you mentioned, Pat, ⁓ along with that, I think Mattingley was was really sniffing it there. ⁓ and I think he had a right to. Pat Barker: Yeah, and I I I I think I think also and ⁓ sorry, Mike, I didn't mean to cut you off, but I think also he he realizes that if Duron goes out and throws two shutout innings, the Phillies are gonna have two more turns at bat. They got sale out of the game. Maybe by the time you have to make a decision on who comes in when Duron hits a wall, you're up six to two. You know what I mean? There's no guarantee it's still gonna be a three to two game. So that's why I completely, you know, I I understood it. What what were you gonna say, Mike? Mike Sambuco: No, I just gonna say, like w we going into this series had no idea what we were gonna get from Jesus Lazardo, and he gave us five great innings. Seventy seven pitches, I mean I I I contemplate, you know, what he could have done if he was the one coming out for the sixth instead of McFarlane, to at least give more innings to Lazardo, potentially, where we have to find fewer innings for the rest of the bullpen. That's that's the only thing in hindsight I think that I I just don't have clarity on because there's so much question mark about Lizardo and how deep he could have gone. ⁓ I don't think we've heard exactly what his max was. Carl: Yeah, there hasn't been there hasn't really been any commentary on whether he was, you know, calling himself out, whether that was the plan all along, five max. His velocity was not tailing off by by the end of the fifth, as far as I saw. Pat Barker: No, he mean he he he looked good and he probably could have gone further. Nobody's talking about it because the Phillies took a lead. So it doesn't matter. I mean i it does, but I think that's the attitude where it's like the we're all gonna talk about Duran and Riley, but maybe that's a situation that could have been avoided if Lozardo goes a little bit deeper. If Lozardo wasn't needed to pitch in game 162, again we would not be having this conversation. He would have been fully rested, and by fully I mean a month. And he might have been able to give you eight. Who knows? But again, the Phillies did this to themselves. They shot themselves in the foot for the entirety of September. They lost the chance to host the wild card series. They lost the chance to play the Cubs, which we all said, give us the Cubs, and boy, watching that Cubs Padres series, what a missed opportunity. And they lost the opportunity to set up the pitching the way they wanted to, and it definitely came back to bite ⁓ in in game one. But I don't blame any of that on Mattingley. I don't see the the the mound visit quite the way you do. I understand what you're saying in theory, where it's like you either let ⁓ go or get him out of there. I you can't get him out of there, 'cause I I don't know what other option you have. I think they just saw it getting away from him and maybe him getting a little bit ⁓ stressed because the the walk to Albee's to throw a three two pitch that almost takes a guy's d you know, feet out, you're nowhere near the zone. So ⁓ I I will say yeah Mike Sambuco: And and and ⁓ sorry, ⁓ just to ⁓ cut you off there, 'cause you apologize for cutting me off. ⁓ Pat Barker: Yeah. Mike Sambuco: Th there was a bit of a review about the hit by pitch versus wild pitch because of you know, it it could have amounted to the Braves getting ⁓ Harris on third. So I'm I'm curious if that also factored into their their decision to go out and meet with Durant. Pat Barker: That's a good call. I don't know. ⁓ it it reminded me a lot of game three of the World Series last year, the Dodgers and the Blue Jays, where Otani had already been terrorizing the Blue Jays that game. He had a homer and two doubles, and he came up in the seventh as the tying run, and old friend of the show, Sir Anthony Dominguez, was on the mound, and they had a visit, and I don't know what they told him to do, but it's not what he did, because his first pitch after the visit was a fastball right down the middle, and this was the same exact scenario. ⁓ with the same exact result. Home runs both times. So ⁓ but then the Phillies come out and they say, flush it, move on. And God, they actually did it. They go to game two. My expectations were at zero at this point. You got Sanchez on the mound, which I felt good about, but I at this point it's like, well, the bullpen is obviously trash, and you just wasted Duran. He might not be available. Sanchez and Tyler Molly, ⁓ they they duel. The game starts with Trey Turner, ⁓ maybe his only hit of the series, one of two, I'm not sure. He leads off with an opposite field double, great approach, then Harper with an opposite field single, and you're like, okay, they they're putting some at-bats together. Those were the only at-bats they put together. Molly goes seven innings, that's the only run that he gives up. Sanchez matches him bar for bar, they get into Mike Sambuco: Yep, it was. Pat Barker: The bottom of the seventh, and that's when the wheels start to come off. Sanchez walks ⁓ Sean Murphy. Then Hasan Kim tries to give himself up on a bunt. ⁓ and Alec Bohm inexplicably, and this is another one of the in games like this, so many things happen that by the end there's certain things you forget about. Alec Bohm, instead of taking the out, tried to throw across his body and Moving away from the bag to second base, the runner was, of course, safe, putting runners at first and second. Then Sanchez strikes out Acuna. He's well over a hundred pitches at this point. And he gets Drake Baldwin to hit the most routine fly ball anyone's ever hit. If you were a coach hitting fungos and you hit this thing, you'd be like, damn, I'm pretty proud of that one. ⁓ and Harper completely misjudges it. He barely has to move, he comes in a little bit, and then It takes off on him, goes off his glove. They called it a double, which is absolute dog shit. It was clearly an error. ⁓ I don't know why that bothers me so much. Sanchez stays in, intentionally walks Albies, Olsen hits a sack fly, a laser. That's where they take him out at 116 pitches. And then to the bottom of the seventh, Schwarber and Harper just come out and immediately go back to back. In our group chat, our friend Bob Tomarelli, who ⁓ you know. ⁓ would love to be on this show to take a victory lap for this thing, but that's never gonna happen. He called it. He said, Don't you guys feel in your bones they're gonna hit back to back home runs? And we were all, no, what are you talking about? And they did. and then Painter takes over in the eighth and kind of takes it from there. He comes in and throws six balls in a row. Better mound visit. Caleb Cotham comes out, they talk to him. He was a completely different pitcher ⁓ at that point. You know, top of the ninth, Edmundo Sosa leads off with a single that I thought ⁓ might have been definitely season ending. ⁓ turns out he was back the next day, tore it all as a hell of a drug. ⁓ but then Crawford fucks up the bunt. We go to the tenth, Alec Bohm with the redemption home run, and then Painter finishes it with the help of the automatic ball strike ⁓ system. Just an incredible game, one of the better Phillies playoff wins of my life that will be forgotten to the the sands of time because they lost the game. But really absolutely incredible stuff from the fills there. Carl: It it it absolutely sucks that this game is buried in a you know a a three game series loss because it in in terms of baseball poetry, I mean, one of the best I've ever seen. I mean, rid redemption arcs all over the place. ⁓ you know, from Harper obviously, big time error to big time home run. Bohm, same exact thing. ⁓ and then Painter. Ta Painter showing up and and pitching In relief for the first time, it sounds like in his adult life, ⁓ he he ⁓ you know he's borderline lights out and you think about his total redemption arc from the beginning of the season when he was sent down with a seven plus ERA ⁓ and came back and and and completely retooled his mechanics and delivered and showed brass balls. I mean, really, the entire second half of the season, the kid, you know, would would ⁓ you know be shaky in the first inning. ⁓ have good mound visits, retool and and and give you the length that you needed out of his start. I mean, that encapsulated really all the work he'd done all season. It it was awesome. It really was. It it it's a shame that we couldn't close the series and ⁓ talk about that a little more as a legend ⁓ in Phil's history. Mike Sambuco: It would have been an all timer had we won the series. I mean it s as simple as that. It's gonna go down in history similar to how twenty twenty two or twenty twenty four game two of the NLDS went. That was a fantastic game, a back and forth game ⁓ against the Mets that we kinda largely d forget and don't talk about because we didn't win the series. ⁓ but it was a fantastic, you know, back and forth battle. where the stars ended up being the stars and ⁓ big time at bats in the eighth for Schwarber and Harper to go back to back. ⁓ you mentioned everything else already with Painter, but just a a fantastic way for him unfortunately it is the end of the season for him, but that is a great way for him to go into the off season with that ⁓ in the back. The last thing that he's done for the year. ⁓ it's a It's gonna set him up for success going forward. ⁓ would love to have seen him, you know, pitch some more in the postseason, but at least we can think of this as a a s a great stepping stone towards a a career turning point. Pat Barker: Yeah, in the same way I gave Carl his props on calling Luzardo for five innings in game one. Mike, it is your turn. Here are your flowers. You came right out and said Sanchez for six, Wheeler for er ⁓ excuse me, Painter for three. And ⁓ boy, that was pretty much damn near exactly what happened. ⁓ and Painter looked incredible. And like, you know, I didn't call any of the pitching ⁓ you know, specifics this series like you guys did, but I do remember when we When he first got sent down, my idea was let's make him a reliever so he can get comfortable with that role and maybe he can make a difference for us in October the way Sasaki did for the Dodgers last year. I think he could have been that guy. I was surprised that they never officially converted him for this year. They just let him start and then he it was seamless. He just went out to the bullpen and he was he acted like he's been doing his whole life. Carl: Thank you. Mike Sambuco: It just goes back to the depth of the starting rotation. They didn't have it and they needed him to be a starter. Carl: I I think we would have seen him in games. I think we would have seen him in game three if ⁓ you know, if if if we'd if Wheeler had been able to keep it close and the offense had clicked at all, ⁓ we could have seen Painter for another two innings in game three, maybe even throwing the final pitch of the series. Pat Barker: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And yeah, again, it just it it gets lost. It's one of those games. There's a graveyard of great Phillies games. I distinctly remember Pedro Feliz hitting a homer of Jabba Chamberlain in the O nine World Series that nobody else remembers, to the point where I'm like, maybe I hallucinated it. But it was immediately Mike Sambuco: Nope. That one's ingrained in my mind of a what if Pat Barker: Yeah, yeah, that was one of and you said the twenty twenty-four series. I hell the twenty twenty two World Series, game one. That big win in Houston with JT. Like if you don't win the series, ⁓ you know, these things get forgotten, but ⁓ it is a shame because it was poetic. It would have been the perfect kind of swan song for Alec Boehm in Philadelphia if he is indeed gone and you know, Painter coming full circle and where those guys were in May versus where they ended up being on the last day of September. ⁓ they deserve a lot of credit for that, regardless. ⁓ the only other thing I wanted to touch on from that game, I remember not so much with you guys, but with other people who I have more general kind of baseball discussions with ⁓ when ABS debuted. You know, every move that Rob Manford makes gets picked apart with a fine-tooth comb and people shit on him for everything. And I'm a proponent of all almost all the moves that he's made. I think across the board they've been way more wins than losses. And I remember hearing so many times the catastrophic nightmare scenario: what if a playoff game ends on an ABS call? And my thing was, you mean if it ends on getting the call right? Like how would that possibly be bad? And they're like, it would be so and Anticlimactic. I'll tell you, I was on the edge of my seat. It was not anti I thought it ruled. I thought that was awesome and I love ABS. And I'm so glad that it didn't allow them to call that pitch a ball and keep that going and maybe painter hangs a curve or something like that. And, you know, we lose the series there. So shout out to Rob Manfred. ABS. Yeah. Mike Sambuco: Anything could have happened after that, yeah. Carl: I I I love we we don't have to get too much into ABS, but I I just love the way that they implemented it and I hope it stays exactly the way it is. You get a finite, very limited number of challenges to use. There's an extra layer to the game to strategize as to how to use them and yeah, a a lot of a lot of rules have flattened the texture of the game. This one I actually believe added to it. I think it's pretty Pat Barker: Yeah, and and by the way, it added another element, maybe not fifteen million dollars a year worth of element, but it gives you another thing that JT Real Muto really helps your baseball team with. He's really, really good at the ABS system. ⁓ so we'll give him credit too, because we're about to get to game three, and this is where everybody stops getting credit, and ⁓ we relive really the only non-competitive game of the series. The decision was made to go with Aaron Nola on regular rest. ⁓ Zach Wheeler was on three days rest. We all, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, but we all thought Wheeler was going to start game three. I was certain of it. And they announced the day before it would be Nola. ⁓ he comes out on regular rest. The other decision that goes along with that is JT Realmuto in the starting lineup batting eighth. It's a major topic of discussion because Aaron Nola's second half turnaround coincided with Garrett Stubbs becoming essentially his personal catcher. And down the stretch in the most important games of the season, they put him with JT every time, and it did not work. ⁓ And that was certainly the case here. He gets a first pitch flyout, first pitch of the game, Drake Baldwin. Then he falls behind both Acunya and Olsen 3-0 before walking both of them. Then he falls behind Michael Harris 2-0. And Michael Harris golfs a pitch out to right. It's 3-0. That is essentially the game right there. ⁓ one of the biggest compliments people always paid Aaron Nola, who does give up a lot of home runs, but it was always, yeah, most of them are solo shots because he has control. He doesn't walk guys. Not the case here. ⁓ two walks and then the three run homer. He ends up leaving without completing the second inning. Tim Mesa gets us out of that. Then Wheeler comes in. ⁓ Does everything he can, goes four innings, gives up another homer to Ozzy Albis, a two-run shot. ⁓ And then great to have Jonathan Bolin finally make a cameo and do what he does best, which is give up another two-out home run. ⁓ which is just it's ⁓ it's uncanny how good he is at following the same blueprint every time. ⁓ and then on the brave side, you know, Ray Kerr. Incredible story, man. Just absolutely unbelievable story. ⁓ the kind of shit that if it's not happening against your team, you love it. It's the Vince Popali thing, right? He was working at 7-Eleven or AMC Theaters or whatever, and now he's getting ten ten outs in a playoff game. and the Braves piece together a bullpen game. And piece it together really, really well, ending with Chris Sale in a situation where like I don't think they needed to, but I'm gonna get into that in a minute because, you know, I think it's I think there's a clear difference between Walt Weiss and Don Mattingley in this game. ⁓ Sale closes it out. Harper, ⁓ you know, of course, ends his season by swinging at a ball forty inches out of the strike zone, and then as the ball rolls towards the dugout, instead of running to first, he's taking off his shin guard. ⁓ just chef's kiss. perfect. ⁓ I don't know. Take it away. What what do you think? Carl: ⁓ first of all, I I just I'll I'll start by saying I was not entirely convinced or ⁓ wanting to start Zach Wheeler in game three. I I actually I I saw the logic of having Nola start that game. But there's some contingencies that had to be followed in order to execute that properly, and that's where Mattingley is definitely at fault. First of all, Nola was on full rest. He's the only guy on the staff that was. ⁓ Nola had a a pretty damn good last two months of the season. He ⁓ he has a catcher that he has doesn't just you know seem to have better chemistry with. His ERA with Garrett Stubbs is two full runs lower than his ERA with JT Realmuto. And there's a big enough sample size to say that that is a that that's not a blip. That that is an absolute fact. And for Matting Lee to set him up without that catcher, ⁓ to essentially give up two extra runs, earned runs per game, ⁓ in a in an elimination game will will never cease to boggle my mind. I I I don't get it. I don't wanna hear how good JT is at whatever he's good at, which is the perfect segue, as you mentioned that one of the the valuable things he gives you is ⁓ his his ABS challenges. That fourth ball to Matt Olson, I'm pretty sure was a strike. And JT didn't challenge it. I that that blew my mind that that wouldn't be done in that moment. When you you feel the wheels falling off, you know what an Aranola turning into a pumpkin inning looks like, whether it's the first or the fifth. You know what that looks like. We've seen that script how many times? ⁓ that's vintage Aranola, in in my mind. And ⁓ you know, the the leash has to be Incredibly short, no room for error. And if you can't see that he's just walked two guys and you know, not not not doing any of the the solid nibbling that he's done in the past two months, ⁓ they needed to yank him immediately. I I don't care how absurd that sounds, because you have Zach Wheeler in the tank. You're you're gonna use him for whatever length you need from him. You essentially have starter one A and one B. ⁓ and you know, you just you you let it slide. And you put us in a three three nothing hole in the first inning, and you just know what it feels like. And I will say, ⁓ you know, the rest of the game was just absolute torture. But you mentioned Walt Weiss putting in Chris Sale to close that game. That's a killer instinct, and I love that in a manager. ⁓ Chris Sale, he's a Hall of Fame pitcher. We know how good he is. He he's faced us, I think that was his fourth or fifth time facing us this year. ⁓ if you look at our two biggest stars, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, just from game one, you only have to look at past samples, they are incapable of recognizing his slider. It it is not it is not in the realm of possibility that either one of them can recognize his slider. And it it it was just foolish to even watch them just wave at them ⁓ in the innings that that sale came in. And that last Harper at bat just was just icing on the cake. in that sense. I mean, just ⁓ laughable swings at laughable pitches and then not even having the the the the the game frame of mind ⁓ to run the first base in in an elimination game. It was all those things. It was just it was all the ugliest things happening in one game. Managerial personnel, guts, ⁓ you know, all that was missing. in that game and that's kind of the fillies that we've we've known at the end of the past four seasons. Mike Sambuco: I mean I I couldn't second what you're saying more in regards to the Stubbs starting I've been clamoring for that since we have had this question in the back of our mind if is Stubbs our official Nola catcher. ⁓ he's gotta start that playoff game. The the ERA difference between Stubbs and JT for Aaron Nolas over two runs per nine. I mean that's it's it's a no brainer, especially because his lease leash was short and you knew That that meant that Subs wasn't gonna bat more than once in all likelihood. It it ch it I'd rather sacrifice that one potential at bat for ensuring that you're getting the most out of Aaron Nol. ⁓ but if that's that's going based off of the assumption that Noah is is okay to start. And I still believe that if Wheeler was going to pitch in game three. And he ended up throwing, I think, sixty-eight pitches. If he was going to pitch at all, he needed to start that game and ride him into the ground until he could go no longer. And and that's where I think the the biggest question mark of like, is this the right decision comes up in my back of my he it back of my mind. I w I I will say, it all comes back to the roster construction and the bullpen deficiencies. I mean, you don't have that question about Nola and Starting Nola and then bringing in Wheeler if you have a competent bullpen. Pat Barker: For sure. And that is the backdrop of all of these conversations. All all of it. And one thing I'm proud of the fan base for generally in the discourse following the lot because I I think a lot of I spend a lot of time in comment sections and it's the dumbest people on earth and I I should stay out of there. But one thing that they got right was nobody was really going after Mattingley afterwards. Even the people who were were pretty you know They were in tune with the idea that, like, yeah, the moves he made that you might have disagreed with were necessitated by a the team collapsing in September, and B, Dave Dombrowski not giving him any usable pieces in the bullpen outside of Duran. So people get that, and it's nice to hear because the manager, no matter who it is, oftentimes gets too much, you know, shit from the fans. ⁓ that being said, allow me to give him a little bit of shit. I did not like the move to start Aaron Nola, and I'll tell you why in a second, but I really hated the move, as you guys have already covered, to start JT over Stubbs. The ERA is a massive difference. Like you said, Stubbs might only bat once. And by the way, if Stubbs comes up in the second inning with the bases loaded and one out, and you feel like you have to score there, and you got a left- Okay, then you could pinch hit with, you know, ⁓ Derek Hill or or Real Muto. You could just make the switch there. But To let Nola go out there into a hostile situation, and it became a hostile situation when we became the only game, and it wasn't a two p.m. game with everybody at work. It was eight p.m., the stadium was full, it was rockin'. You're putting Nola into that environment. Give him the comfort blanket of the catcher that he actually clearly likes throwing to more. It didn't make any sense. And you're carrying three catchers on the roster. For what reason? What is Rafael Marchand doing there if it's not this exact scenario? I I really Carl: Mm-hmm. Pat Barker: I really think if it wasn't this scenario, it's because they love Garrett Stubbs, the pinch runner. And it's like, if that is how you're constructing your playoff roster, we have to do whatever we can to get Garrett Stubbs as a pinch runner, then you're in rough shape. But it should have been Stubbs. The reason I don't like the NOLA start is because the entire run from midway through September up until the end. I believe that Don Mattingley was managing with the appropriate level of urgency. This is our season on the line right now. Aaron Nola starts game 161. It backfired, but I love the urgency. Wheeler starts game 162, it worked, I love the urgency. Lozardo starts game one, it worked, I love the urgency. Duran game one, I it didn't work, but I love the urgency. Every move he made was consistent with this back against the wall. I'm gonna focus on the batter right in front of me and get him out, and what's the best way to do that? And I believe in my heart and they will never ask him this question, it'll never we'll never find out for sure. And he'll never say it, even if it's true. But I believe that at least partially the decision to start Aaron Nola. was made because he created the possibility of a scenario where what if Nola goes out there and he shoves? What if Nola goes out there and he shoves? What if we get some runs off early off of Kerr? What if we don't have to use Wheeler and we could start him game one of the division of the division series? I really believe that was part of the calculus. And for the first time, he looked even a little bit ahead and said, well, in this scenario, then we could, and I really think you had to continue to manage. We can't look ahead. Walt Weiss did not look ahead with a four-run lead in the eighth inning. He did not say, ⁓ this might knock sale from game two to game three in the NLDS. He said, fuck the NLDS. We gotta win this game right now. Sale's going on the mound. So with that in mind, I believe that for the first time in the series, Mattingley abandoned the urgency necessary, and that was part of the reason he started Zach Wheeler, and that's why I don't like it. ⁓ or excuse me, started Aranola, and that's why I don't like it. That being said, Aranola obviously did a terrible job and needed to do a lot better, and I'm not letting him off the hook at all. No matter who's back there, no matter what catcher is back there, you cannot fall behind every hitter 2-0-3-0. You just can't do it against a good lineup on the road in the playoffs. It's insane to think you can live like that. So I'm giving him more of the blame than anybody. But that being said, I really wish that Mattingly had just kept that killer instinct, foot on the neck kind of thing and started Wheeler and s just see what happens. Mike Sambuco: Yeah. Can't green more. I mean, i it was very un-Aren Nola like to walk two batters in the first inning. I mean he he was all over the place. He had no control. And it was to the point where I was curious, are they even gonna bring him out for the second inning if he gets through the first? And and I mean he didn't make it out of the second inning, but I'm surprised that he even started the second inning. Pat Barker: Yeah. Yeah, me too. Me too. I don't know what the e again, maybe he's just hoping like, all right, well if we could settle him down because you're you're looking at that point, you're like, Well, we gotta get through twenty four theoretical outs. And I don't know how much I can count on Wheeler for. I don't know what Duran's available for. Like, maybe at that point it's just hoping against hope that he will and just put him with the shortest leash possible, which by the way is what he got. He gave up a two out single and that was enough to get him out of there. ⁓ and then we got to see Tim Mesa throw his only pitch of the series. ⁓ Yeah, I mean, i you know, i it all obviously was he was walking a tightrope, Mattingley was the entire series, and I don't envy that position at all. And eventually he fell off. And that's what happens. But it was ⁓ was not his fault. Even though I'm giving him shit on that one overall, was not his fault. This team was just never good enough. It was never ⁓ deep enough. And you know, some of that is luck too. I mean the Luisa Rise injury is brutal. But when you look at their trade deadline, Louisa Rise, Caleb Killian, Brooks Rayleigh, not one of them on the postseason roster, it's hard to imagine the trade deadline going any worse than than it actually did. and I feel like that's you know, that's unfortunately becoming a theme. Mike Sambuco: Can you expand that to the offseason? They spent thirty one and a half million dollars on Adolis Garcia, Brad Keller, Jose Alvarado picking up his nine million dollar option, and Dylan Moore, none of which played an inning in the postseason. Pat Barker: Yeah, I mean that's you can absolutely expand it to that. It's brutal. And included in that offseason is just eating the contracts of Nick Castellanos and Taiwan Walker as well. Alright? ⁓ so you know it's ⁓ it's an organizational failure. ⁓ that's not entirely Dombrowski, but it all falls under his umbrella. Like the scouting and drafting is all terrible too, and has been for years, but you know, and if Dombrowski is just the GM, okay, you get a little bit of a pass for that. He's the president of baseball operations. He's overseeing technically all of this stuff, and it all falls under his purview, and it's all been terrible. Carl: There there's a big name that we haven't mentioned yet. And I just want to roll back to the the situation that Mattingley was in entering the postseason and the situation he was in in game three. It's that our lineup doesn't hit the fucking ball. ⁓ look, we we've got guys who are highly paid to do just that. ⁓ they didn't do it in September. They didn't do it e even if the competition got a little stiffer in September, we still lost key games to the Nationals, to the Marlins. ⁓ can't happen. Pat Barker: Yeah. Yeah. Carl: ⁓ and in game three, Mattingley, I think, still had in the back of his mind, whether it was looking ahead to starting Wheeler in game one of the DS, he at least could say they're throwing an opener against us. This is a bullpen game for Atlanta. How can we not have the advantage in this spot? How can our our highly paid offense not produce just enough ⁓ you know, to make ⁓ a you know, maybe a shaky Aaron Nola start followed by Zach Wheeler. ⁓ you know to to close out this series. So ⁓ the name that I want to mention specifically is Kevin Long. ⁓ don't know what that guy does for this team. ⁓ how many how many seasons do we have to watch the same exact played approach except for one month this season after the Arise trade where we saw something different happen and then they slid right back into the old habits. ⁓ yeah a a Big chunk of the blame goes to him as well, ⁓ in a time when there is a lot of blame to to spread around. Mike Sambuco: Talking more about the approach, I mean, th in three games, Philly's walked four times. I mean, Trey looked atrocious all series, except for that one double leading off game two. I mean, his at-bats were I mean, he was flailing at just about everything outside the zone. Crawford didn't look that great. Stott was overmatched. I mean, they're j they just didn't have the guys, and they definitely didn't have the approach. The Braves walked twelve times in the series, three times as as much as the Phillies did. And that Pat Barker: Yeah. Carl: Okay. Mike Sambuco: clogged up the bases, led to three run home runs in game one and game three. I mean, it you don't always need to hit the ball to get to first base. You gotta you can't expand the zone in the playoffs and that's what they did that's why it's so frustrating 'cause we saw them with their approach in August try to, you know, go take the base one base at a time and you know, next man up, that mentality that seemingly came when Arias got here. ⁓ it gave Harper a lot more comfort, you know, with him behind him in the lineup and and the lineup took off in August. And then all of a sudden in September they went back to what it used to be, even with Arias behind Harper before he got hurt. And I mean there were just so many at bats where you just see you know, stripe one in the zone Or strike two out the zone swinging on at at a pitch off the plate. I mean it's just nothing seemed to go their way offensively. And I'm sorry if you hear the fireworks in the background. Pat Barker: absolutely hear that I was like what is what is happening what are the fireworks for Mike Sambuco: Totally thrown off by that. Carl: At at first I at first I thought it was for ⁓ the the the raised no hitter over the Yankees, but that got broken up, so th I really have no reason why there's fire. Pat Barker: ⁓ I haven't I haven't been tracking that game. That's a s that's a selfish thing that I do every year is I don't want anyone else to throw a no hitter in the playoffs. ⁓ I want Halliday to be the the last true one. Bullpen no hitter, whatever. Carl: That's all right. They broke that up, so you're good. Pat Barker: Well, I should be scouting that 'cause as a as a White Sox fan now, I am eagerly anticipating the ALCS. ⁓ I'm adopting the White Sox for the re I don't care if it's true fanshi it doesn't matter. Yeah. Carl: I think we all are. Yeah. I think they are absolutely the most likable team. The one Yeah. Mike Sambuco: I mean, how can you not love Murakami and his interviews? Pat Barker: Can we get one Asian player on this fucking team? Carl: Thank you. Yes. Pat Barker: I'm I'm I'm dumb fat. Mike Sambuco: Well there's one ⁓ there's one I'll point out that I would love to sign, ⁓ but we'll save it for another episode. Pat Barker: We'll save all twenty twenty seven Philly stuff for twenty twenty seven. I I I did wanna say it it's insane that it took forty five minutes for us to get to the offense. I think we just we're so used to it that it's like, Well, they scored, you know, ⁓ w what, three runs in game one and They scored four runs in game two. I mean, that's a that's an explosion for these guys. But you're right. The offense was absolutely pitiful. Even Bohm, who really had this great series on paper, the sale pitch was two feet above the strike zone. The last hit he got was two feet below the strike zone. I it it's not like he had a really great approach. He just, you know, he hit some balls, credit where it's due. But yeah, they all went up there kind of swinging and everything. And if I could just I pick the worst ⁓ times, or at least the most counterintuitive times, to kinda like Take a a perspective that everyone else has taken. I have not talked any shit about Bryce Harper, anything he's done, even when it's backfired, even when it's, you know, it gone poorly. You know, Carl, you and I argued about him hitting that homer in Atlanta in September, and then he took that slow trot and they ended up losing. And I had his back. I'm like, dude, he's the only one hitting. Like, let him celebrate however he wants. Like, who cares? I hate the fact that. And it started in game one sixty two. I I heard on the the pre-game interview I told you guys. They were asking him about right before the seasons on the line, they're in the middle of this epic collapse and they're like, Can you evaluate your own personal season? He's Yeah, you know, I got on base two hundred and fifty times. I think it was a good year. I'm like, Why are you even aware of that right now? Like you should be your hair should be on fire. Then he comes out and he makes that brutal error. And he tells this really heartwarming story about how it made him think about his son and what he would say to his son and you know, that's all well and good. But number one, if he didn't hit that home run, there's no way he's telling that story. There's no way they're going to him after they lose game two and the season is over because of the error that he made and he's like, Yeah, well, you know, I just thought like I thought about what I'd say to my son, the end of the day, like, none of this is that big of a deal. Baseball is like, it's whatever. Like, you get to say that because the Phillies came back and won that game, but like, that's an insane thing to say out loud. ⁓ and then number two, and and this really, really bothered me. In the all the interviews he did after the game talking about that play, at no point did he say, ⁓ yeah, ⁓ that was brutal on my part. He kept saying, Yeah, I probably should have had that ball. Probably. It's the most routine fly ball I've ever seen hit in a baseball game. And you completely screwed it up. And then you're gonna come out and be like, yeah, I probably should have had it. I don't know. I never get on Bryce about the stuff he says. I know a lot of our friends do, and I defend him from, you know, now till the cows come home. But I just thought, and nobody else is gonna get on him after that, because he did hit the home run and they won the game. But like, I just thought those were brutal quotes, man. Like, just o at least own up to the the error and like what it meant. And ⁓ you know, I I I hated that. So and and then for it to culminate with the the strikeout where he didn't run the first. This this Sirius put a sour taste in my mouth ⁓ regarding Bryce Harper. Carl: Yeah, brutal but unsurprising quotes, I would say. ⁓ and you know, the the the fact that it is not gonna go down in the books as an error, it it just exacerbates the whole situation. ⁓ just ⁓ I I can't even get into the the scoring decisions lately. But ⁓ I I I'm sure you guys felt the same way. I I think Mike mentioned it in our text thread, but for those two, three minutes, however long the commercial break was after the end of that inning before Schwarber and Harper came up and hit their back-to-back home runs. I went all the way through the thought exercise of what this offseason looks like with our season ending essentially because of a Bryce Harper little league error. ⁓ I saw him not being on the Phillies anymore. I mean, I I I took it that far. I mean, the the the amount of guff that would be, you know, just thrown across every bit of sports radio and and Harper know when Harper listens to that stuff and how how just toxic that would've become and how quickly. yeah, I think we were that close to that kind of a catastrophic event, at least from ⁓ from a Bryce Harper standpoint. Mike Sambuco: It it would have been Kirkering last year all over again and but even I'd say like ten to twenty times worse because it's Bryce Harper. And you have five more years of him under contract, a pretty team friendly contract is easily tradable. I I'm not too far away from that. type of thinking either. I I I was worried that this is going to be the end of Bryce Harper as a Philly, and that would pain me to no end. That it would especially that it would end that way. but I don't think he he makes it through the the off season because that's the lasting image that everybody's gonna have of Bryce Harper. And Carl: Especially if they if they resign or continue with Dombrowski. I think the combination of those two things it would have yeah. Pat Barker: Well, I I got news for you. Just because he hit the home run and because the Phillies ended up winning that game doesn't necessarily mean that that should change. anything about what you're thinking for the offseason. I think the thing that it does change is the narrative around Bryce Harper. And at the end of the day, he he can veto any trade. So maybe in that scenario, like you said, he listens to sports talk radio. Maybe it pushes him to be like, I want out. Cause he's not leaving unless he wants to leave. ⁓ But that doesn't mean that just because, you know, we came back and won that game, that doesn't mean that any anything should change from that nightmare scenario you had played out in your head as to what the off-season would look like. I think you can make a strong argument that that should be the exact same mentality they're going into the off-season with as if we didn't come back and win that game. Because ultimately it doesn't change that much. It changed that game. But it doesn't change the fact that they collapsed in September. It doesn't change the fact that they didn't hit enough to win in this series. It doesn't change the fact that That they didn't have any bullpen pieces. ⁓ and it doesn't change the fact that they have very little flexibility, and Bryce Harper's contract is one of the only ⁓ attractive assets that they have to even theoretically deal. Without getting into all the details, that's a fact. So, ⁓ yeah. Mike Sambuco: Yeah, we we we can we can save those good conversations about, you know, what the off season plan might be for next week or next episode. ⁓ but I think I think the focus of what we're saying is everybody's lasting image of the twenty twenty six Phillies would have been that dropped five ball, as opposed to the totality of the Phillies being inefficient and not good enough. Pat Barker: Yeah. Yeah. And ⁓ yeah, the focus needs to be on the totality. ⁓ i Bryce doesn't deserve to be the face of this team losing this year. I'm not saying that by any means. So if nothing else, it does give a more accurate depiction of just how big the Phillies problems are. It's not about one fly ball. It is about a snowball effect from years of poor decisions being made. ⁓ and they're all they're all chickens are coming home to roost now. So ⁓ it's gonna be an interesting off season for sure. ⁓ I I would say I can't wait to talk about it. I can't I wish we didn't have to talk about it, but ⁓ it's it's it's coming. The next episode is gonna be a lot of trying to get under the hood and figure out what the hell they're gonna do, if there's anything they can even do. ⁓ Until then, ⁓ we're gonna sign off 2026 Phillies. We hardly knew ye. Thank you for ⁓ the good memories. There were a few good moments in there, ⁓ but ⁓ overall this is a season I am excited to forget about and ⁓ and move forward. Until next time, I'm Pat Barker, and that's Carl Bakudi, that's Mike Sambuco. Go fills. Carl: A White Sox. Pat Barker: Yeah, go socks. Hell yeah. Carl: ⁓