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Mindset of Elon Musk, 2013 Interview!!! · Elon Musk Thinking

0:00
Speaker 1: Thank you and good afternoon. So we have lots of cover.
0:04
Speaker 1: Elon does a lot of things.
0:07
Speaker 2: There is at the moment one of his spaceships docked
0:10
Speaker 2: to the space station, the Dragon spaceship. This is the
0:13
Speaker 2: third time that's been docked. Second commercial one was launched
0:17
Speaker 2: last week. Many of you may have followed the launch,
0:20
Speaker 2: but there was drama. You know, there were solar panels
0:22
Speaker 2: and all this kind of stuff we could follow on
0:23
Speaker 2: your Twitter feed.
0:24
Speaker 3: Yet drama, what's it?
0:26
Speaker 2: Can you just tell us what it's like to be
0:29
Speaker 2: Elon Musk in the control room during a launch when
0:32
Speaker 2: something happens, when there's an issue.
0:36
Speaker 4: Well, it's I mean, it's extremely nerve wracking.
0:39
Speaker 3: I mean it's the thing about rocket launch is that
0:41
Speaker 3: all of your work is distilled into these few minutes,
0:44
Speaker 3: particularly the first several seconds around the lift off. Because
0:49
Speaker 3: the worst thing that can happen with the rocket in
0:51
Speaker 3: a touch word is if if you have an engine
0:56
Speaker 3: failure or some huge failure right above the launch pad
0:59
Speaker 3: and the whole thing can come down with about a
1:02
Speaker 3: million pounds of T and T equivalent and destroyed the
1:05
Speaker 3: whole lounch pad. That would be That's what's going through
1:07
Speaker 3: my mind in case you're wondering, that's actually what.
1:11
Speaker 4: I'm thinking about here.
1:13
Speaker 3: So when it clears the lightning towers and it's gotten
1:18
Speaker 3: further enough away from not actually destroying the launch pad,
1:22
Speaker 3: then then it's that's one sort of go down a
1:26
Speaker 3: notch on, you know, the fear and anxiety. And then
1:34
Speaker 3: after first stage separation.
1:37
Speaker 4: That's another one. And when the.
1:39
Speaker 3: Second stage lights up, so it's sort of going down
1:43
Speaker 3: in intensity as the rocket is going up. And the
1:49
Speaker 3: thing is that the first three rocket launches that we
1:51
Speaker 3: had failed okay, and then the first one failed quite
1:56
Speaker 3: close to the launch pad, almost destroyed the launch pad.
1:58
Speaker 4: In fact, I spent that.
2:00
Speaker 3: They're picking up rocket pieces off the reef, which sucks.
2:04
Speaker 3: So I think like there's a pretty powerfully ingrained fear
2:08
Speaker 3: response as a result of that, because three in a row,
2:11
Speaker 3: just you know, and the image of those rocket failures
2:16
Speaker 3: kind of going through my mind as I seeing the
2:17
Speaker 3: rocket launch. So that's what's going on.
2:20
Speaker 2: And then in this case, you made it through the
2:23
Speaker 2: state separation, but then there was an issue with the
2:25
Speaker 2: solar cells. Tell me a little bit how you sort
2:27
Speaker 2: of spotted the problem, diagnosed it, What does the team do?
2:29
Speaker 1: I mean, you got there in the end, but how
2:31
Speaker 1: does it work?
2:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the solar panels are actually okay. But and
2:36
Speaker 3: the rocket launch went went really well, so that that
2:39
Speaker 3: was not a problem. Where things kind of went awry
2:44
Speaker 3: was after spacecraft separation, we try to initialize the fourth
2:49
Speaker 3: rustler pods. So there's fourth thrustal pots with a combined
2:52
Speaker 3: total of eighteen engines, and the system is designed with
2:57
Speaker 3: a huge amount of dundancy, so it can take all
2:58
Speaker 3: sorts of failures and it's complete its mission. That's that's
3:01
Speaker 3: the whole way it's been made. In fact, it can
3:05
Speaker 3: it can work with even if it has only two
3:07
Speaker 3: of the four thrust replies working, you know, they can
3:10
Speaker 3: still do a mission.
3:12
Speaker 4: So three weren't working. Wow, and.
3:19
Speaker 3: That which was a huge puzzle, like what why are
3:21
Speaker 3: three not working? Because these things are crash strapped, so
3:24
Speaker 3: you'd kind of think that either maybe one wouldn't work
3:27
Speaker 3: or a crash strap pair wouldn't work, but not three.
3:30
Speaker 4: It was really really strange.
3:32
Speaker 3: So so we had the spacecraft just going through kind
3:38
Speaker 3: of free drift in space, like we're just tumbling, and
3:44
Speaker 3: which makes all it's also difficult to communicate with because
3:46
Speaker 3: the antennas are like pointing, you know, every which way
3:49
Speaker 3: you can imagine. So we had. All we had was
3:52
Speaker 3: was a very flight two killer, it occasional two kill
3:58
Speaker 3: a bit link that would go in and out and
4:02
Speaker 3: that was an omnidirectional signal beaming off of the NASA
4:04
Speaker 3: Tedrous satellite system. So in order to actually improve the
4:09
Speaker 3: foot we first had to improve the bandwidth.
4:12
Speaker 4: So we actually asked the Air Force.
4:13
Speaker 3: If we could have some of their long range clameatory
4:17
Speaker 3: scanners with would they give us access and we have
4:20
Speaker 3: this communication system they would call the megaproxy, So we
4:24
Speaker 3: had to recode the megaproxy to go through the Air
4:28
Speaker 3: Force long range dishes to blast the spacecraft with enough
4:32
Speaker 3: intensity to be able to upload new code to try.
4:36
Speaker 4: To fix the problem.
4:38
Speaker 3: And so we wrote some new software to essentially pressure
4:44
Speaker 3: slam the two of the three oxidizer tanks that were
4:52
Speaker 3: refusing to pressurize. And it turned out we've I think
4:56
Speaker 3: we've figured out problem, which is that there's a there
4:59
Speaker 3: was a slight chain which made to a check valve
5:02
Speaker 3: that was in three of the tanks and not on
5:04
Speaker 3: the other.
5:04
Speaker 4: And we're able to replicate that problem the ground later.
5:09
Speaker 3: And we're able to to basically have the have the
5:12
Speaker 3: system build up pressure upstream, then release that pressure and
5:17
Speaker 3: slam the valve. So we're trying to give it the
5:20
Speaker 3: sort of the spacecraft equivalent to the heimlich maneuver basically, And.
5:26
Speaker 4: And then we got one.
5:27
Speaker 3: Of the pods too that looked like it was making progress,
5:31
Speaker 3: and we didn't want to unfil the solar panels until
5:35
Speaker 3: we had at least two pods.
5:36
Speaker 4: Active so we could we could go from sort.
5:39
Speaker 3: Of drifting to an active hold. But then the temperatures
5:44
Speaker 3: of the solar panels, which are any protective covers, was
5:47
Speaker 3: dropping and it can drop to like almost absolute zero
5:51
Speaker 3: if it's pointing at a dog space. So so it
5:56
Speaker 3: was dropping, dropping, dropping, and we're like, okay, we better
5:59
Speaker 3: release the solar panels otherwise they could literally freeze in place.
6:05
Speaker 3: And so we ran a simulation to see what would
6:07
Speaker 3: what would happen, and it's actually slightly beneficial, and it's
6:11
Speaker 3: kind of.
6:11
Speaker 4: Like when a skater.
6:12
Speaker 3: You know, when a skater puts her arms out, it
6:16
Speaker 3: slows down, pull him in, it speeds up. So when
6:18
Speaker 3: actually when the the arms went out, when the solar
6:21
Speaker 3: panel raise went out, it slowed down. The rate of
6:23
Speaker 3: rotation actually slightly helped us with maintaining communication with the spacecraft.
6:29
Speaker 3: And so then we're able to uh with with the
6:35
Speaker 3: precious lamp thing, get get it, get apart active. Then
6:39
Speaker 3: then then a third one and then a fourth one.
6:41
Speaker 3: Then we've got all four working and we're able to
6:45
Speaker 3: continue the mission dock with the space station. In fact,
6:47
Speaker 3: Dragon is currently duck with the space station right now
6:51
Speaker 3: and if if all goes well, we'll return to Earth
6:54
Speaker 3: in about a week or two.
6:56
Speaker 1: That sounds terrifying.
7:00
Speaker 2: Why that was?
7:05
Speaker 4: That was hardcore. I don't want to go through that again.
7:11
Speaker 2: Okay, you are not just here in in in Austin
7:15
Speaker 2: for south by Southwest, but also to meet with the
7:17
Speaker 2: Texas legislature to talk about it possibly a launch base
7:21
Speaker 2: here in Texas.
7:23
Speaker 1: Tell us more about that.
7:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, So right now we've got two main launch locations.
7:29
Speaker 3: One is Cape Canaval in Florida and the other is
7:33
Speaker 3: a Vanderberg Air Force Base in California. And so the
7:38
Speaker 3: Cape Narral is good for kind of eastward launches, Vanderberg
7:42
Speaker 3: for southerly launches, and we figured we need a third
7:45
Speaker 3: launch site.
7:46
Speaker 4: That's kind of a commercial launch site.
7:47
Speaker 3: You know, it's not good because Cape Narval and Vanderberg
7:50
Speaker 3: or air Force Bass, which which is cool, and it's
7:54
Speaker 3: obviously there's an important need for air Force space launch bases,
7:58
Speaker 3: as there is for air Force airports, but then there's
8:01
Speaker 3: also a need for commercial airports.
8:04
Speaker 4: And just like you wouldn't.
8:05
Speaker 3: Expect commercial airliners to land at an air force base
8:10
Speaker 3: in a normal course of events, it makes sense to
8:12
Speaker 3: have a commercial spaceport. And we need to be able
8:17
Speaker 3: to launch eastward and we want to be close to
8:20
Speaker 3: the equator.
8:22
Speaker 4: So that basically means.
8:25
Speaker 3: The potential states are Virginia through Texas going south, Hawaii
8:32
Speaker 3: and Puerto Rico because the other things when need to stay.
8:35
Speaker 4: On US territory because.
8:39
Speaker 3: Rocket technology like we're doing is considered an advanced weapons technology,
8:43
Speaker 3: so it's very difficult to export that if you will,
8:46
Speaker 3: to other countries and anyways, So those are our options
8:51
Speaker 3: right right now. Texas is arguably the leading candidate, but
8:56
Speaker 3: we need certain legislation pass that's supportive of space launch.
9:00
Speaker 3: I don't think it's particularly controversial, but one of the
9:04
Speaker 3: things we need, for example, is we need to be
9:05
Speaker 3: able to close the beach when we're doing a launch
9:07
Speaker 3: and Texas has.
9:08
Speaker 4: The Open Beaches Act.
9:09
Speaker 3: It's like, Okay, you know, we we can't launch if
9:12
Speaker 3: there's someone right next to the rocket, you know, on
9:15
Speaker 3: the beach. So that's I don't like I said, I
9:20
Speaker 3: don't think it's a particularly controversial thing.
9:23
Speaker 4: It's pretty straightforward.
9:25
Speaker 3: And then and then we kind of need liberal protection
9:28
Speaker 3: for kind of the one in ten thousand person case
9:32
Speaker 3: who complains about the thing. Like we had this dude
9:35
Speaker 3: who filed a lawsuit against us for our rocket development
9:38
Speaker 3: site in Central Texas near Waco. He's like not even
9:41
Speaker 3: in the same county, He's in a neighboring county, and
9:45
Speaker 3: he like also thinks like the CIA is listening to
9:47
Speaker 3: his brain waves. So we need like just a little
9:50
Speaker 3: bit of protection for people like that. So we're not
9:53
Speaker 3: like spending a ton of time in court. So that's
9:55
Speaker 3: basically what we're asking for. Learning major and I think
10:01
Speaker 3: it's likely to move forward. So I think, you know,
10:04
Speaker 3: if if things go as expected this this, it's likely
10:07
Speaker 3: that we'll have a launch sight in Texas, which I
10:09
Speaker 3: think be really cool around when so it founds on
10:17
Speaker 3: how the environmental approval is going a lot. But I
10:20
Speaker 3: think I think, well, if things go well, I mean
10:24
Speaker 3: not all, not all of it's in our hands. So
10:25
Speaker 3: but assuming that things go as expected, you know, there'd
10:29
Speaker 3: be a decision this year and then we'll start construction
10:31
Speaker 3: next year and then and probably the first launches would
10:34
Speaker 3: take place and from there in two to three years.
10:37
Speaker 1: Terrific.
10:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, So Falcon nine or the rocket that launched a
10:42
Speaker 2: dragon is traditional rocket, which is to say, it's disposable bits.
10:46
Speaker 2: But you're essentially you're ultimately focused on reusable rock. Yes,
10:50
Speaker 2: Grasshopper is the name of that. Can you talk a
10:52
Speaker 2: little bit about what's why reusable, what's different about reusable?
10:57
Speaker 1: And I think you probably have some things to show
10:58
Speaker 1: as well.
10:59
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely so reasonability is extremely important if you think
11:05
Speaker 3: it's important that humanity extend beyond Earth and become multipenant
11:09
Speaker 3: species and all that, and I.
11:12
Speaker 4: Mean it's super important. I thought.
11:13
Speaker 3: I think it's also incredibly obvious common sense, Like you
11:16
Speaker 3: can imagine watching like star Trek and then they got
11:19
Speaker 3: a new starship after every every trip that would be
11:21
Speaker 3: pretty sarly, and and and every motor transport that we're
11:28
Speaker 3: used to, like cars, plane strains, ormobiles, horses.
11:31
Speaker 4: Bikes, they're all reusable.
11:34
Speaker 3: But not rockets, and if we can't make rockets reusable,
11:39
Speaker 3: the cost is just prohibitive. That the like the cost
11:43
Speaker 3: of the fuel and oxygen on a Falcon nine is
11:46
Speaker 3: zero point three percent of the cost of the rocket.
11:50
Speaker 3: So it's basically it's a very tiny number. It's it's
11:52
Speaker 3: very similar to an airplane. So it's how much does
11:56
Speaker 3: it cost to fuel up an airplane and how much
11:59
Speaker 3: does it cost to buying air plane.
12:00
Speaker 4: They're very different things.
12:02
Speaker 3: So if we're if humanity is ever to expand beyond
12:05
Speaker 3: Earth and establish a self sustaining base and another planet,
12:09
Speaker 3: is critical that.
12:10
Speaker 4: We solve this problem.
12:10
Speaker 3: Whether it's SpaceX or someone else, someone has to solve
12:13
Speaker 3: the problem and we can have one hundred fold reduction
12:16
Speaker 3: in the cost of space plight. So so that's what
12:22
Speaker 3: SpaceX has been trying to do, and really that's been
12:25
Speaker 3: the goal since the beginning of the company. So so far,
12:28
Speaker 3: I'm not being very successful in that in that regard,
12:31
Speaker 3: so but I think we kind of have a.
12:34
Speaker 4: Handle on it. I think I think we've got to.
12:36
Speaker 4: We've got a.
12:36
Speaker 3: Design that in the simulations in and in CAD and
12:41
Speaker 3: so forth, it it closes like it should work.
12:44
Speaker 4: If we can build that thing. It should work, and.
12:49
Speaker 3: In fact it may be worth just rolling the reusability
12:52
Speaker 3: videos so people have a sense of what I'm talking about.
12:54
Speaker 3: I don't know where that plays, but behind us a
12:58
Speaker 3: farm us and people in the audience of that there.
13:07
Speaker 3: Ye alright, So what you're saying here is that the
13:14
Speaker 3: the first age after stage separation, the first aage turns around,
13:18
Speaker 3: boosts back to the launch pad, and then lands propulsively
13:22
Speaker 3: with landing gear. That's kind of how rocket should land.
13:34
Speaker 3: That's that's the upper stage. This is the this is
13:37
Speaker 3: the quick version of the video obviously, and then you're
13:43
Speaker 3: seeing Dragon version two. So Dragon version two will land
13:46
Speaker 3: on thrusters with landing gear with the at G as
13:50
Speaker 3: accurately as a helicopter, so you can land anywhere on Earth.
13:53
Speaker 3: That's with the accuracy of a helicopter.
13:55
Speaker 2: One last question about space before we turn to two cars.
14:00
Speaker 2: You've talked before about how you decided.
14:02
Speaker 1: To get into this.
14:03
Speaker 2: You were you founded you know, you go founded PayPal.
14:07
Speaker 2: You don't really, I mean, you have a physics degree,
14:08
Speaker 2: you know something about about you know the underlying mechanics,
14:11
Speaker 2: but you didn't have any space experience. You decided I
14:15
Speaker 2: think on a train to go to Mars, and decided
14:18
Speaker 2: that you could out compete in NASA, that you could
14:21
Speaker 2: get to Mars, you could get to space faster, cheaper,
14:24
Speaker 2: better than one of the largest, the largest space agency.
14:27
Speaker 3: In the world.
14:29
Speaker 1: How did you get that confidence?
14:31
Speaker 3: Uh? So, well, I think first of all, I should
14:37
Speaker 3: say maybe give some of a preface to what happened
14:42
Speaker 3: before starting SpaceX. In fact, the way I sort of
14:47
Speaker 3: got into space was to do I was really disappointed
14:54
Speaker 3: that we had not send anyone to Mars, that we
14:55
Speaker 3: had not progressed beyond Apollo, and I kept waiting for
14:59
Speaker 3: when we would.
15:00
Speaker 4: And it just didn't happen.
15:02
Speaker 3: A year after year, and and so a friend of
15:06
Speaker 3: mine asked me about what I wanted to do after PayPal,
15:08
Speaker 3: and I thought, well, you know, I was always curious
15:10
Speaker 3: about space, but I didn't think about that there was
15:12
Speaker 3: anything I could do do in space. And I went
15:16
Speaker 3: to the NASA website to just see when are we
15:18
Speaker 3: going to Mars?
15:18
Speaker 4: And I can find that out.
15:24
Speaker 3: I thought maybe it was there, but I well hid
15:26
Speaker 3: them or something. But so so then I thought, well,
15:32
Speaker 3: perhaps this is a question of will. Is there sufficient
15:36
Speaker 3: will to do this? And the first idea I came
15:40
Speaker 3: up with was actually to do a philanthropic mission to
15:43
Speaker 3: send a small greenhouse to the surface of Mars with
15:46
Speaker 3: seats and dehydrated jail that would hydrate upon landing, and
15:49
Speaker 3: you'd have this cool greenhouse with these green plants on
15:52
Speaker 3: a red background. That'll be the money shot and and
15:57
Speaker 3: and then you know, people like precedents and superlatives, so
16:01
Speaker 3: it be the first first life on another planet furthest
16:04
Speaker 3: that life ever traveled, and that would get people excited,
16:08
Speaker 3: and you also learn about a lot about want to
16:11
Speaker 3: support earth.
16:12
Speaker 4: Plants and a greenhouse on Mars.
16:16
Speaker 3: The whole purpose of that was to get people excited
16:19
Speaker 3: about sending people to Mars and increase NASA's budget. So
16:24
Speaker 3: that was my whole goal. I was going to basically torch. Yeah,
16:32
Speaker 3: it had nothing to do with competing with NASA. In fact,
16:34
Speaker 3: my goal was to increase their budget. And I should
16:39
Speaker 3: say that today NASA is our biggest customer. I mean,
16:46
Speaker 3: we've got almost fifty launchers and about a quarter of
16:51
Speaker 3: those of FANASA, but three quarters three quarters commercial, but.
16:55
Speaker 4: One quarter NASA.
16:57
Speaker 3: And NASA's been incredibly sort of been helpful, and we
17:01
Speaker 3: wouldn't be where we are today without without the help
17:03
Speaker 3: and NASSA. So it's gonna really got nice too. With
17:05
Speaker 3: competing with NASA. It's really just about what do we
17:07
Speaker 3: need to do to have an exciting and inspiring future
17:10
Speaker 3: in space.
17:11
Speaker 4: That's that's what I think really matters.
17:13
Speaker 1: At the end of the day.
17:14
Speaker 2: You didn't end up raising the fund the money to
17:16
Speaker 2: pay NASA to the mission. You end up doing building
17:19
Speaker 2: your own company, and ideally to do it cheaper than
17:23
Speaker 2: government scout.
17:24
Speaker 3: Yeah. So I was able to figure out how to
17:30
Speaker 3: get the cost of the spacecraft and the greenhouse and
17:33
Speaker 3: the communications system way less than it normally would cost
17:37
Speaker 3: for such a thing.
17:38
Speaker 4: I got stuck on the rocket and I.
17:41
Speaker 3: Went to Russia three times to try to buy a
17:45
Speaker 3: couple of their biggest ICBMs.
17:52
Speaker 4: This is about.
17:53
Speaker 3: This is in two thousand and one, late two thousand
17:54
Speaker 3: and one and two thousand and two. It was definitely
17:58
Speaker 3: an interesting experience, and I sort of got the feeling
18:04
Speaker 3: I could have bought the Nook too, but.
18:07
Speaker 4: I don't.
18:07
Speaker 3: I don't want to go there.
18:12
Speaker 4: And then when I when I got back from the
18:14
Speaker 4: third trip to.
18:14
Speaker 3: Russia, that that's when I thought, Okay, look, even if
18:20
Speaker 3: we do even if we buy these these ICBMs from Russia.
18:27
Speaker 1: I.
18:29
Speaker 3: Thought, I thought my initial supposition was wrong. And so
18:35
Speaker 3: what I thought really was that we'd lost the world
18:38
Speaker 3: to explore, that we'd lost the world to push the boundary,
18:41
Speaker 3: and and and in retrospect, that was actually a very
18:44
Speaker 3: foolish error. Because the United States is a nation of explorers.
18:49
Speaker 3: United States is a distillation of the humans.
18:52
Speaker 4: Bird of exploration.
18:53
Speaker 3: It's ludicrous to actually, in retrospect, to have made such
18:56
Speaker 3: an assumption. But people to believe that it's possible, and
19:02
Speaker 3: that it's not gonna it's not going to bankrupt them.
19:04
Speaker 3: It's not They're not gonna have to give up something
19:06
Speaker 3: important like healthcare. You know, it's going to be a
19:10
Speaker 3: cost that isn't going to meaningfully affect their their standard
19:12
Speaker 3: of living. And I think the United States would absolutely
19:15
Speaker 3: be super, super excited about sending people to Mars, and people,
19:20
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people really wish that would
19:22
Speaker 3: occur anyway, So that was that was what I came
19:27
Speaker 3: to conclusion of. And and I thought, well, if if
19:29
Speaker 3: we don't make a difference in the cost of the
19:32
Speaker 3: rocket of the transport system, it's all, it doesn't matter
19:35
Speaker 3: it's it's not like I said, it's not a question
19:37
Speaker 3: of will, it's a question of whey. And so that's
19:40
Speaker 3: when I came back and started the SpaceX. But when
19:43
Speaker 3: I started SpaceX, it wasn't with the perspective of like
19:46
Speaker 3: a world just you know, take over the world and
19:50
Speaker 3: with with.
19:51
Speaker 4: Or some rockets. I don't know what the book I
19:52
Speaker 4: was doing. It was like clueless.
19:55
Speaker 3: I thought the most likely outcome was that we would fail,
20:00
Speaker 3: and the first three rockets did fail.
20:01
Speaker 2: So and you put all your money into it.
20:05
Speaker 3: Between Tesla, SpaceX and Solar City all in. Yeah, that
20:11
Speaker 3: wasn't the plan at the beginning.
20:13
Speaker 2: By the way, and Peter Tail says, we don't think
20:18
Speaker 2: big anymore.
20:20
Speaker 1: You must have some conversations with him about that.
20:23
Speaker 3: Well, you know, Peter's spent a big supporter actually, so
20:25
Speaker 3: he's he invested in SpaceX at a very important time
20:31
Speaker 3: in two thousand and eight before we reached orbit, so
20:35
Speaker 3: after our.
20:35
Speaker 4: Third failure of it, before our first success.
20:38
Speaker 3: So you know, big credit to Peter and Luke Nosik
20:42
Speaker 3: and the other guys that I found. Respond Basically, my
20:44
Speaker 3: my buddy's great well, my buddies from Papal saved my butt.
20:47
Speaker 4: You know, it was really really good.
20:51
Speaker 2: So so let's talk about cars. Many and the audience
21:00
Speaker 2: may recollect the notorious New York Times review of the
21:04
Speaker 2: Model S, Yes, exactly of the Model S earlier this year,
21:10
Speaker 2: and your reaction to that review, and the Times reaction
21:14
Speaker 2: to your reaction, and the effect on your share price
21:18
Speaker 2: and on orders and all that, and without rehashing the
21:22
Speaker 2: review or the facts, I'd like it you just to post.
21:25
Speaker 1: Mortem the entire experience.
21:27
Speaker 4: How do I do a post mortem without any facts
21:30
Speaker 4: or anything?
21:32
Speaker 1: Post mortem? Post mortem?
21:34
Speaker 2: Your reaction to the review and what you know put
21:38
Speaker 2: you on the couch, and what would you do differently today?
21:40
Speaker 1: Having seen the weight all played out?
21:47
Speaker 4: Well, I think I think this one thing I didn't do.
21:58
Speaker 3: And maybe still should, which is to post the rebuttal
22:03
Speaker 3: to the rebuttal, because I withheld that and waited for
22:06
Speaker 3: the public editor. I sent that information to the public editor,
22:10
Speaker 3: waited for her to do her sort of thing, and
22:14
Speaker 3: she came down kind of on the side of Tesla
22:16
Speaker 3: with respect to the fact that the article was in error,
22:20
Speaker 3: but but disagreed on the motive.
22:23
Speaker 1: On the ethics, Yes, and because you impugned both facts and.
22:29
Speaker 4: Ethics, I did, yes, and and and I think it was.
22:35
Speaker 4: I think it was.
22:36
Speaker 3: I would call it a low grade ethics violation, not
22:39
Speaker 3: like a big one. I don't think he thought he
22:41
Speaker 3: was doing anything particularly terrible.
22:44
Speaker 4: But I would call it a low grade, low grade violation.
22:46
Speaker 3: And not not not of the Jason Blair, you know,
22:49
Speaker 3: crazy fabrication variety.
22:52
Speaker 4: But I would call it a low grade. It was
22:54
Speaker 4: not in good faith.
22:55
Speaker 3: If that that's that's that's an important point. And I
23:01
Speaker 3: probably should have posted that rebuttal to make that clear,
23:05
Speaker 3: but I didn't do it.
23:07
Speaker 4: That's what I regret.
23:09
Speaker 2: So the only change you would make is that the
23:11
Speaker 2: very last bit the rebuttal that you wrote but that
23:14
Speaker 2: has not been published, you would get.
23:16
Speaker 4: Maybe I should, you would get out there.
23:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, So you would continue to use the same language
23:20
Speaker 1: in the same way.
23:21
Speaker 3: And I don't think the language was inaccurate.
23:23
Speaker 4: I really don't.
23:28
Speaker 1: You've often.
23:34
Speaker 2: You've often said that one of your management techniques, one
23:36
Speaker 2: of the secrets of your successes, that you listen to
23:38
Speaker 2: negative feedback. Yes was a Times review not didn't fall
23:43
Speaker 2: into the category of negative feedback.
23:46
Speaker 3: I have no problem with negative feedback. I have a
23:48
Speaker 3: problem with nor do I have a problem with critical reviews.
23:51
Speaker 3: If I had a problem with critical reviews, I would
23:53
Speaker 3: spend all my time battling critical reviews. There have been
23:57
Speaker 3: hundreds of negative articles, hundreds, and yet I've only spoken
24:01
Speaker 3: out a few times. I don't have a problem with
24:04
Speaker 3: critical reviews. I have a problem with false reviews.
24:08
Speaker 1: All right.
24:11
Speaker 2: One of the technologies that you had to you know,
24:15
Speaker 2: basically developed to near perfection or at least or at
24:18
Speaker 2: least work on hardest with lithium batteries for the electric
24:22
Speaker 2: cars or run on lithuan batteries. Safety has always been
24:24
Speaker 2: an issue, accidents, et cetera. Recently, Boeing had fires with
24:30
Speaker 2: their lithium batteries, and these and the dreaminers now to
24:32
Speaker 2: service because of that, you volunteered to help the Boeing executives,
24:37
Speaker 2: I guess, diagnose and redesign.
24:40
Speaker 1: Can you talk a little bit.
24:40
Speaker 2: About what they did wrong, what you would have done differently,
24:43
Speaker 2: and what do you think that the future of you know,
24:46
Speaker 2: Boeing in others, airline batteries are going to.
24:48
Speaker 3: Be sure well, first of all, on the bowing front,
24:52
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously, even though SpaceX and Going compete on
24:54
Speaker 3: the space side, we have no competition on the commercial
24:56
Speaker 3: airline a side, and some of the comments that I
24:58
Speaker 3: made about Boeing, somehow I've been interverted as an attack
25:01
Speaker 3: on Boeing, when it is in fact not an attack
25:03
Speaker 3: on Boeing.
25:05
Speaker 4: The only reason I actually, I mean, the main.
25:09
Speaker 3: Reason I should say I offered to help, was that
25:11
Speaker 3: there's a friend of mine, Richard Branson, who's whose airline
25:14
Speaker 3: is suffering as a result of this with him iron Fire,
25:17
Speaker 3: and here he was mentioning that, you know, he's losing
25:20
Speaker 3: hundreds of millions he always airline is as a result
25:23
Speaker 3: of this this problem. I said, well, I think we
25:25
Speaker 3: could probably help, and then so he said, oh great, well,
25:27
Speaker 3: let me connect you with the chief engineer of the
25:31
Speaker 3: seven eight seven. I said, cool, we're happy to help.
25:33
Speaker 3: So provided some advice and hopefully that'll be helpful. And
25:41
Speaker 3: I said, we're also happy to actually do the solution
25:44
Speaker 3: if you want. And they haven't taken this stuff on
25:47
Speaker 3: that offer, but we're happy to help, either in an
25:51
Speaker 3: advisory capacity or to do the solution whatever would result
25:55
Speaker 3: in the seven eight seven getting back to flight sooner.
25:59
Speaker 3: We're just trying to you know, productive and helpful. So
26:03
Speaker 3: I mean, I think in the case of the battery.
26:07
Speaker 3: Voeing doesn't have a ton of in house battery expertise,
26:10
Speaker 3: so that they outsourced the battery and then you had
26:14
Speaker 3: a whole bunch of kind of nested outsourcing where the
26:18
Speaker 3: outsourced the battery system, and then and then that got
26:21
Speaker 3: outsourced to another company, then to another company, and then
26:25
Speaker 3: to a whole bunch of other companies.
26:26
Speaker 4: And you're like four layers deep before you actually got
26:29
Speaker 4: to any hardware.
26:33
Speaker 3: And so that resulted and I think in a kind
26:36
Speaker 3: of a breakdown of communication. I mean from an architectural standpoint,
26:40
Speaker 3: The fundamental issue is that the is that I think
26:45
Speaker 3: is that the cells are too big. The battery cells
26:48
Speaker 3: are too big, and the gaps between the battery cells
26:51
Speaker 3: are are not big enough. And the problem with a
26:54
Speaker 3: big battery cell is that the thermal pathway is in
26:59
Speaker 3: a most case scenario is very long. So you say, well,
27:03
Speaker 3: if there's a hot spot in the battery, can it
27:05
Speaker 3: get its heat out? And if it's deep in a cell,
27:08
Speaker 3: it can't. It can't do that. And it's also hard
27:11
Speaker 3: to thermally condition the cells. That the life of the
27:14
Speaker 3: pack will be will be dependent upon on the temperature,
27:17
Speaker 3: with the average not the average temperature, but the worst
27:20
Speaker 3: temperature at any point in any cell. So you want
27:24
Speaker 3: to really even that temperature out. That's why Tesla is
27:26
Speaker 3: a fan of having lots of small cells and then
27:29
Speaker 3: actively cooling each cell to keep the temperature even and
27:33
Speaker 3: make sure that if if hotspot does developed, it's a
27:37
Speaker 3: very short pathway to the cooling system and it can
27:41
Speaker 3: you know, take care of it. Then you also want
27:42
Speaker 3: to make sure that it's again quite technical here, sorry,
27:46
Speaker 3: it's it's passive propagation proof. So so if you even
27:52
Speaker 3: if your active cooling system fails and you get them
27:55
Speaker 3: more on away in a cell, that therm we're on
27:57
Speaker 3: an event can't cascade into a neighboring cell, and you
28:00
Speaker 3: get the thermal domino effect, right, I mean, it's it's
28:03
Speaker 3: not it's not super complicated.
28:06
Speaker 4: So so.
28:11
Speaker 3: It just if if you have big cells, you want
28:16
Speaker 3: big gaps, and ideally you want you don't want big cells.
28:19
Speaker 3: If you do, you want big gaps, small cells, small gaps.
28:23
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, so.
28:25
Speaker 2: I mean this is this is really important because because
28:28
Speaker 2: the whole thing about this new generation of aeroplanes that
28:30
Speaker 2: they're light, they use composites, they use electronics rather than
28:33
Speaker 2: mechanical systems, and so electricity drives the whole thing.
28:36
Speaker 1: So basically my understanding is that.
28:38
Speaker 2: You need lithium batteries in the sky. It just doesn't
28:40
Speaker 2: work any other way. And your point is it can
28:42
Speaker 2: be done.
28:42
Speaker 4: Oh, totally can be done.
28:43
Speaker 3: YEA, Like lithium is getting a bit of a bad
28:45
Speaker 3: name here, Lithium is obviously the way to go. I mean,
28:48
Speaker 3: people have lithium my own batteries and their cell phones
28:51
Speaker 3: and their laptops. I mean, I don't think anyone's panicking
28:53
Speaker 3: here with the fact that they go to lithium ion battery.
28:56
Speaker 4: You know, next to a sensitive region of probably their body.
29:00
Speaker 4: You know, got it.
29:03
Speaker 2: Well, just staying on on on power for one last
29:07
Speaker 2: set of questions before well, before I returned.
29:10
Speaker 1: To your life, which seems insane.
29:13
Speaker 4: Is the same.
29:16
Speaker 2: You're also a chairman of Solar City, which I believe
29:19
Speaker 2: is America's largest solar installer. You know, so space transportation
29:24
Speaker 2: energy ticking.
29:26
Speaker 1: Off the big ones there.
29:29
Speaker 2: Now, you know, solar got a bad name over the
29:31
Speaker 2: last few years because of the cylinder meltdown, et cetera.
29:33
Speaker 2: But in my sense that people different are not differentiating
29:36
Speaker 2: between the making of solar cells and the using of
29:38
Speaker 2: solar cells and the Chinese competition and the glutting of
29:42
Speaker 2: the market on the supply side is what solender what
29:45
Speaker 2: got Cylinder in trouble.
29:46
Speaker 1: They couldn't compete with the falling prices. But you're a
29:48
Speaker 1: consumer of solar cells, So how do you see you know,
29:52
Speaker 1: the Chinese, Chinese competition and sort of the glut of
29:55
Speaker 1: solar solar cells on the market. What did I do
29:58
Speaker 1: with you?
29:59
Speaker 3: I mean, I think what China is doing in the
30:00
Speaker 3: solar panel arena is awesome because they're lowering the cost
30:03
Speaker 3: of solar power for the world, and they have these
30:07
Speaker 3: huge gigafactories that they created out in the Chinese desert
30:12
Speaker 3: and with a ton of funding from the Chinese government.
30:15
Speaker 3: So it's like a giant donation from the tiny Chinese government.
30:17
Speaker 3: Like thanks, that's awesome, you know, And you know, people
30:22
Speaker 3: sort of complain about a Cylinder, but I mean, obviously
30:25
Speaker 3: anyone who's been involved in the venture world knows that
30:27
Speaker 3: you don't at a thousand.
30:28
Speaker 4: There's some companies that die.
30:30
Speaker 3: The only reason we know about Cylinder is because became
30:31
Speaker 3: a political football, right, And I mean there are other
30:36
Speaker 3: sort of panel manufacturers are still doing reasonably well, but
30:41
Speaker 3: it is tough when you're competing. I mean, I think
30:44
Speaker 3: a good rule of thumb was don't is, don't compete
30:46
Speaker 3: with China with a commodity product. You know, you're really
30:52
Speaker 3: asking for travel in that scenario. And it's really super
30:58
Speaker 3: easy to make fifteen percent inefficient or standard efficiency solar panels.
31:02
Speaker 3: It's super easy. It's like easier of the making freaking
31:04
Speaker 3: drywall at this point. So it's like, is there everything
31:08
Speaker 3: we should be competing with China in drywall manufacturing? Okay,
31:11
Speaker 3: probably not so so, so that's the thing. So, and
31:18
Speaker 3: the hard part of solar power is not the panel,
31:22
Speaker 3: it's actually the whole system. It's basically designing something that's
31:26
Speaker 3: going to fit on particular rooftop because you have all
31:29
Speaker 3: these heterogeneous rooftops. Then you've got to you've got to
31:33
Speaker 3: mount the system, you've got to wire it up, you've
31:35
Speaker 3: got to connect it with the inverters connected to the grid,
31:38
Speaker 3: you've got to do all the permitting. I mean, it's
31:40
Speaker 3: a bunch of like thorny, unglamorous, stupid problems. But if
31:43
Speaker 3: somebody doesn't optimize them, they're still going to cost a
31:46
Speaker 3: ton of money and a lot of them are really
31:49
Speaker 3: not they're not fun problems, they're not you know, exciting
31:52
Speaker 3: problems to optimize, but but they are the problems that
31:56
Speaker 3: actually matter in the cost of solar power.
31:59
Speaker 2: So it's really more like you know, like a like
32:02
Speaker 2: a roofing contractor than it is at a company.
32:05
Speaker 4: I mean, what you're doing is you're putting a second
32:07
Speaker 4: roof on a building. Yeah, okay, so.
32:12
Speaker 3: And you've got to do it at scale, and then
32:14
Speaker 3: you've got to manage all these systems because there's still
32:16
Speaker 3: some I mean, even though the after sales service is small,
32:18
Speaker 3: when you've got like hundreds of thousands of systems, that's
32:21
Speaker 3: still a lot to manage. And and so what solar
32:26
Speaker 3: City really is is a giant distributed utility and it's
32:32
Speaker 3: working in partnership with the house and business and in
32:38
Speaker 3: competition with the big sort of monopoly utility.
32:44
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's like literally power to the people.
32:46
Speaker 3: Okay, It's like it's literally So I think it's really
32:51
Speaker 3: awesome because utility has just never had.
32:52
Speaker 4: Any competition before.
32:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, and now they're like they have to actually think
32:56
Speaker 3: about the cost of power and figure out better ways
32:59
Speaker 3: to do it. And the thing I think it's really great,
33:01
Speaker 3: and the credit there is really due to Lennon and
33:04
Speaker 3: Peter Rye co founders. I mean, I've hearn a few
33:07
Speaker 3: ideas every now and then, but mostly it's just about
33:10
Speaker 3: showing up at the board meeting to hear the good news.
33:12
Speaker 4: It's those guys are just think sessional some job.
33:16
Speaker 2: So you are CEO and CTO of SpaceX, so not
33:20
Speaker 2: just running company progression chief technology officers as well. You
33:24
Speaker 2: are CEO and chief product designer for Tesla, so not
33:28
Speaker 2: just running the company, but designing the cars. And you're
33:30
Speaker 2: chairman of Solar City.
33:32
Speaker 1: Right, what is your life like.
33:36
Speaker 3: It's it's very busy, and I'd actually like to take
33:41
Speaker 3: it down just as Scooch, honestly, because there they're always
33:48
Speaker 3: I mean these things that the last few years have
33:50
Speaker 3: been really really great, but then there were a number
33:53
Speaker 3: of years that saw horribly and I'd like to just
33:59
Speaker 3: not have it be so extreme. And like last year
34:03
Speaker 3: was a year of great achievement, but honestly, I didn't
34:06
Speaker 3: have that much fun.
34:07
Speaker 4: It sucked.
34:08
Speaker 3: I didn't have that much fun. My US resolution was
34:11
Speaker 3: to have a little bit more fun this year. So hey,
34:13
Speaker 3: I'm at south By Southwest.
34:14
Speaker 1: You know, and you have five children?
34:24
Speaker 4: Do They're awesome? Kids are awesome. By the way, you
34:26
Speaker 4: guys should all have kids. Kids are great.
34:32
Speaker 1: How much do you see them?
34:33
Speaker 4: I don't see them enough, actually, But.
34:35
Speaker 3: I what I find is that I'm able to be
34:39
Speaker 3: with them and still be on email because I don't
34:42
Speaker 3: need like constant interaction except when we're talking directly. So
34:46
Speaker 3: I find I can be with them and still be
34:49
Speaker 3: you know, working at the same time.
34:51
Speaker 1: But wait, are you saying you can do email while
34:53
Speaker 1: you're with your children?
34:54
Speaker 4: Yeah? Absolutely sure.
34:58
Speaker 1: Wow.
34:59
Speaker 3: I mean not all it's time, but a lot of
35:01
Speaker 3: the time. That's why I tended to have a phone,
35:06
Speaker 3: and you can sort of you do email in interstitial moments.
35:10
Speaker 3: In the absence of that, I would not be able
35:12
Speaker 3: to get my job done.
35:15
Speaker 1: Well, that's impressive.
35:18
Speaker 3: We are.
35:21
Speaker 1: I have five children. I can't do email wine with
35:23
Speaker 1: my children. It's not good for the children and it's
35:25
Speaker 1: really not good for the email.
35:26
Speaker 3: Well, I do have to have a nanny there otherwise
35:29
Speaker 3: they'll kill each other.
35:31
Speaker 4: So yeah, we.
35:34
Speaker 2: Are going to turn to audience questions at this point.
35:36
Speaker 2: Just a reminder that if you tweet your questions hashtag
35:40
Speaker 2: ask musk there's a team in the back that will
35:42
Speaker 2: be selecting the are the ones that we haven't already covered,
35:47
Speaker 2: and it seem interesting, and I get them in front,
35:49
Speaker 2: maybe you can see them as well. So as the
35:51
Speaker 2: first one from David Solis. Yes, when it comes to
35:54
Speaker 2: researching analyzing entrepreneurial opportunity, how do you go about qualifying
35:58
Speaker 2: or legitimizing presumably the idea?
36:01
Speaker 3: Sure, well, I'm not sure I'm the best guide here
36:09
Speaker 3: because the things that I've chosen have not been I've
36:16
Speaker 3: not been trying to optimize on a risk adjusted return basis.
36:20
Speaker 3: So there are like I would not say that I
36:23
Speaker 3: went to the rocker business, of the car business or
36:26
Speaker 3: the solar business thinking that it's a great opportunity. I
36:31
Speaker 3: just thought that that something needed to be done in
36:34
Speaker 3: these industries in order to make a difference, and that's
36:39
Speaker 3: why I did it. So, But in general, I do
36:44
Speaker 3: think it's worth thinking about, like what whether what you're
36:47
Speaker 3: doing is going to result in disruptive change or not.
36:50
Speaker 3: If it's just incremental, it's unlikely to be something major.
36:56
Speaker 3: It's got to be something that's substanti actually better than
37:01
Speaker 3: what's gone on before.
37:04
Speaker 2: That cubes up our next question really Well, this is
37:06
Speaker 2: from a Craig Lagrese space, automotive, finance, energy disrupted major industries.
37:12
Speaker 1: What would you do if you had a free reign
37:13
Speaker 1: over education?
37:18
Speaker 4: Well, I think that the way that we current lead
37:20
Speaker 4: to education is wrong.
37:22
Speaker 3: And when you see something like the Kon Academy and
37:25
Speaker 3: so for I think that's probably going in the right direction.
37:28
Speaker 4: I mean, generally, you want.
37:29
Speaker 3: Education to be like as close to a video game
37:32
Speaker 3: as possible, like a good video game, Like you do
37:35
Speaker 3: not need to tell your kid to play video games.
37:38
Speaker 3: They will play video games on autopilot all day. So
37:42
Speaker 3: if you can make it interactive and engaging, then you can.
37:47
Speaker 4: Make education far more compelling and a far easier to do.
37:54
Speaker 3: So I think that's how it should be, and it
37:56
Speaker 3: shouldn't be that you've got like these grades where people
37:59
Speaker 3: move in lockstep and so everyone goes through, you know,
38:03
Speaker 3: goes like normally we'll go through English, math, science and
38:09
Speaker 3: so forth, from like fifth grade to sixth grade to
38:11
Speaker 3: seventh grade, like it's an assembly line. But people are
38:14
Speaker 3: not objects on an assembly line. That's a ridiculous notion.
38:19
Speaker 3: People learn and are interested in different things at different paces.
38:24
Speaker 3: So you really want to disconnect the whole grade level
38:28
Speaker 3: three thing from the subjects, allow people to progress at
38:32
Speaker 3: the fastest pace that they can or interested in each subject.
38:38
Speaker 3: It seems like a really obvious thing. I mean, I
38:41
Speaker 3: think like most teaching today is a lot like vaudeville,
38:45
Speaker 3: where and as a result, just not that compelling. It's
38:49
Speaker 3: like somebody's standing up there and lecturing to you, and
38:52
Speaker 3: they've done the same.
38:53
Speaker 4: Lecture several years in a row.
38:54
Speaker 3: They're not necessarily all that engaged or in doing it.
38:58
Speaker 3: And you compare that to say, Batman the Dark Knight, Okay,
39:03
Speaker 3: and then you've got like the world's best special effects,
39:05
Speaker 3: you've got the world's best director, screenwriter, multiple cuts, amazing,
39:10
Speaker 3: you know, editing and and and and and and that's amazing.
39:15
Speaker 3: But but like imagine if instead you had like the
39:19
Speaker 3: local town aspiring actor to the one person play version
39:25
Speaker 3: of that, that would not be compelling.
39:29
Speaker 2: Do you agree with Peter Tiel about the unnecessaryness of
39:33
Speaker 2: university higher education?
39:36
Speaker 3: I don't don't. I definitely I do agree with Peter's
39:39
Speaker 3: point that a university education is often unnecessary. That's not
39:45
Speaker 3: to say it's unnecessary for all people, But I think
39:50
Speaker 3: you've probably learned about as much. For the vast majority
39:53
Speaker 3: of what you're gonna learn there in the first two years,
39:56
Speaker 3: and most of it is from your classmates.
40:00
Speaker 4: Because you can always buy the textbooks and just read
40:01
Speaker 4: them like nobody's stopping you from doing that, or go
40:04
Speaker 4: online or go online.
40:06
Speaker 3: So now now, for a lot of companies, they do
40:11
Speaker 3: want to see the completion of the degree because they're
40:14
Speaker 3: looking for someone who's going to persevere and see it
40:18
Speaker 3: through to the end, and that's actually what's important to them.
40:22
Speaker 4: So it really depends on what somebody's goal is.
40:24
Speaker 3: If the goal is to start a company, I would
40:26
Speaker 3: say no point in finishing college. In my case, I
40:31
Speaker 3: had to otherwise I get kicked out of the country, So.
40:36
Speaker 4: That was important.
40:37
Speaker 2: But although you went on and got a master's degree
40:40
Speaker 2: as well.
40:41
Speaker 3: Right, I came out to look at value to do
40:43
Speaker 3: a PhD at Stanford and applied physics and material science
40:46
Speaker 3: to work on ultra capacitors who use in electric cars,
40:50
Speaker 3: and that's what I was going to do, and then
40:52
Speaker 3: I started to put that on hold to start a company.
40:54
Speaker 3: But since I already had my undergrad I couldn't get
40:57
Speaker 3: an H one BBSA and that kind of thing. So
40:59
Speaker 3: if the h one BB's requires a degree, but other
41:03
Speaker 3: than that, I would have if that wasn't the case,
41:06
Speaker 3: I probably would have stopped education sooner.
41:08
Speaker 1: Did you not go to Wharton for Yeah?
41:10
Speaker 3: They did dual undergrade in physics and business at Wharton. Yeah,
41:14
Speaker 3: but it was undergrad not not master's understood.
41:17
Speaker 1: Another question for the audience from Dan Griffiths.
41:20
Speaker 2: Fill in the blank, you will be disappointed if blank
41:23
Speaker 2: does not happen in your lifetime.
41:30
Speaker 3: Well, probably the most thing I've disappointed is if if
41:34
Speaker 3: humanity doesn't land on Mars in my lifetime, I'd be
41:37
Speaker 3: really disappointed. That would be you know that that would
41:41
Speaker 3: probably be my biggest disappointment. And yeah, I think I
41:47
Speaker 3: think that's the thing I'm most concerned about because because we're.
41:50
Speaker 4: At this and obviously that's what SpaceX is working on.
41:54
Speaker 3: So I'm not trying to be self serving here, but
41:55
Speaker 3: it's just I kind of worry that we've hit this
41:59
Speaker 3: if I don't know whether technology level will keep going
42:04
Speaker 3: or subside. And for the first time in four and
42:08
Speaker 3: a half billion years, the technology level is at the
42:11
Speaker 3: point where we can extend life to another planet, make
42:14
Speaker 3: life multiplanetary, and I think it's too easy to take
42:19
Speaker 3: for granted that it's going to stay above that level.
42:22
Speaker 3: And if it doesn't and it falls blow that will
42:25
Speaker 3: it return?
42:27
Speaker 4: Who knows?
42:29
Speaker 3: You know, the sign is gradually expanding, and in about
42:33
Speaker 3: you know, roughly five hundred million years, maybe a billion
42:36
Speaker 3: years of the outside the oceans will boil and there
42:42
Speaker 3: will be no meaningful life on Earth. I mean it
42:44
Speaker 3: might be like some you know, chemotrophs or or ultra
42:49
Speaker 3: high temperature bacteria or something, but nothing that can make
42:51
Speaker 3: a spaceship. And that's like, if you think it's like,
42:58
Speaker 3: maybe it's a five hundred million your type, for that's
43:00
Speaker 3: only a ten percent increase in the.
43:02
Speaker 4: Life of lifespan of Earth. So if.
43:07
Speaker 3: If humanity had taken an extra ten percent longer to
43:11
Speaker 3: get here, it wouldn't have gotten here at all. Yeah,
43:16
Speaker 3: And so far, we haven't seen any signs of life from.
43:19
Speaker 4: Other worlds that we have. We haven't detected anything.
43:22
Speaker 3: I hope, you know, hopefully we do, and hopefully it's
43:24
Speaker 3: not a warship coming towards us. But I just think
43:31
Speaker 3: that's the thing that really concerns me. We need to
43:35
Speaker 3: get this done and then that is the best thing
43:41
Speaker 3: we can do to ensure the continued existence of humanity.
43:46
Speaker 3: So that's why I would say that's the most important thing.
43:49
Speaker 1: Do you personally do you personally want to step foot
43:57
Speaker 1: on Mars?
43:59
Speaker 4: I do personally want to have put on Mars.
44:01
Speaker 3: But honestly, I would be doing this even if there
44:04
Speaker 3: was no even if I knew there was no chance
44:05
Speaker 3: of me going to Mars, because I think, like I said,
44:10
Speaker 3: I think it's just important that we are on a
44:12
Speaker 3: path to getting there, So I would like to go
44:16
Speaker 3: at some point. I'll go if I'm certain that SpaceX
44:19
Speaker 3: will be fine without me and that that path will continue.
44:24
Speaker 3: Because you may have heard me, some people may have
44:27
Speaker 3: heard the joke I've made before, which is like, you know,
44:30
Speaker 3: I would I think I would like to die on Mars,
44:33
Speaker 3: just not on impact, you know.
44:36
Speaker 2: So another question from the audience, and we just we
44:42
Speaker 2: just lost lost that one. There was a I don't
44:44
Speaker 2: remember who would ask this question, but the question was which, when,
44:49
Speaker 2: when Which do you think is.
44:51
Speaker 1: Going to have more impact on the world, SpaceX or Tesla.
44:56
Speaker 3: Well, I think if we look back, or with historians,
45:01
Speaker 3: if I would look back on the impact of Tesla
45:06
Speaker 3: in many.
45:07
Speaker 4: Years from now, I think it would be that Tesla.
45:13
Speaker 3: Hopefully that Tesla advanced the advent of sustainable transport by
45:19
Speaker 3: something like a decade, maybe maybe two decades. But I
45:25
Speaker 3: do think electric cars are inevitable. In fact, I think
45:28
Speaker 3: all modes of transport will go fully electric, with the
45:30
Speaker 3: ironic exception of rockets. So that's uh, that's what I think.
45:37
Speaker 3: And then for Solo City, perhaps something similar on the
45:42
Speaker 3: energy production site, sustainable energy production. Then for SpaceX, hopefully
45:48
Speaker 3: SpaceX developed develops the technology necessary to transport large numbs
45:51
Speaker 3: of people in cargo to Mars.
45:54
Speaker 4: And I mean I think that's you know, a big
46:00
Speaker 4: or impact.
46:00
Speaker 3: But we're all the the what Solo City and Tesla
46:04
Speaker 3: are about are solving what I think is the most
46:07
Speaker 3: pressing terrestrial concern, which is the sustainable production and consumption
46:12
Speaker 3: of energy. Well helping solve it. I mean, there's many
46:14
Speaker 3: people solving it. And then what SpaceX is about is
46:19
Speaker 3: helping solve the biggest non terrestrial problem, which is the
46:22
Speaker 3: extension of life beyond Earth.
46:24
Speaker 4: So those are how I see it.
46:26
Speaker 2: We have two related questions, the one that's no longer
46:29
Speaker 2: on the screen, but and another one that is that
46:32
Speaker 2: The first was what was the best advice you ever
46:35
Speaker 2: got and the second and you maybe can join them
46:37
Speaker 2: in your answer, is you mentioned working with your friends
46:40
Speaker 2: Peter Teal and RIDRW Branson who influences and inspires you?
46:44
Speaker 3: Sure, well, I'm inspired by a lot of historical figures.
46:51
Speaker 3: Like one of my favorite guys is Ben Franklin. You know,
46:54
Speaker 3: I just think he's you know, he's a really good guy.
46:57
Speaker 3: I mean, he was a scientist and he also i
46:59
Speaker 3: mean worked in obviously publishing and the political sphere, but
47:03
Speaker 3: he kind of like he's just thought about like what
47:05
Speaker 3: are the what are the problems that need to get
47:06
Speaker 3: solved and worked on those. I mean, it's just seems
47:10
Speaker 3: like a good guy around. So I like him and
47:14
Speaker 3: the like just historical figures like in science and literature,
47:20
Speaker 3: and I mean huge fan of Churchill and and obviously
47:27
Speaker 3: like Tesla.
47:27
Speaker 4: We named Tesla after Nikola.
47:29
Speaker 3: Tesla better than most motors, you know, and I actually
47:34
Speaker 3: haven't named any product or company.
47:36
Speaker 4: After myself, but.
47:39
Speaker 3: Then maybe gives a sense of like I think, like
47:41
Speaker 3: Tesla is someone who deserves a lot of recognition, and.
47:48
Speaker 1: They're all dead.
47:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think there's a friend of mine,
47:55
Speaker 3: like Larry Page. I think what Larry's doing and and
47:59
Speaker 3: Serge at Google. I'm really admire what they've done. I think,
48:06
Speaker 3: obviously he's recently dead, but Steve Jobs here doesn't admire
48:09
Speaker 3: Steve Jobs.
48:10
Speaker 4: I think Bezlis is doing some great.
48:12
Speaker 1: Things and among others competing with.
48:15
Speaker 3: You, yes, but that's a good thing. In fact, every
48:18
Speaker 3: time I see Jeff Beslis, I say, why aren't you
48:20
Speaker 3: doing more in space?
48:25
Speaker 1: The other half the question was the best advice you
48:27
Speaker 1: ever got?
48:27
Speaker 4: Best advice I ever got? Well, I think the.
48:38
Speaker 3: You know, the physics training is a very good training
48:40
Speaker 3: where it's a good framework for reasoning where you're trained
48:44
Speaker 3: to think about first principles and reason from there. And
48:49
Speaker 3: that means boiling things down to the most fundamental truths
48:53
Speaker 3: and then connecting those truths in a way to try
48:56
Speaker 3: to understand how reality is. Because you know, physics has
49:00
Speaker 3: this problem where they're trying to figure out things that
49:01
Speaker 3: are totally counterintuitive, and so they had to have a
49:04
Speaker 3: framework for for for getting there, like quantum mechanics is
49:08
Speaker 3: incredibly counterintuitive, but it's true, and so you had so
49:12
Speaker 3: physics developed a framework for for figuring.
49:14
Speaker 4: Out things that aren't obvious.
49:17
Speaker 3: And that's why I think it's it's not it's it's
49:19
Speaker 3: a lot of advice, but it's it's it's the right framework.
49:24
Speaker 4: And then you know, just in general, critical.
49:27
Speaker 3: Thinking is is good, you know, examining whether you have
49:30
Speaker 3: the correct axioms, are the most applicable axioms, does the
49:35
Speaker 3: logic necessarily connect? And then what are the what are
49:39
Speaker 3: the range of probable outcomes? Outcomes are usually not deterministic,
49:43
Speaker 3: they're they're they're a range, and so you want to
49:47
Speaker 3: figure out what those probabilities are and make sure ideally.
49:51
Speaker 4: That you're the house.
49:54
Speaker 3: You know, it's it's fine to take, it's fine to
49:56
Speaker 3: it's fine to gamble, as long as you're the house,
50:01
Speaker 3: and you know and say that is is to listen
50:06
Speaker 3: to critical feedback, which you alluded to earlier. Voice solicit
50:10
Speaker 3: critical feedback, particularly from friends, because generally they will be
50:14
Speaker 3: thinking it, but they won't tell you.
50:16
Speaker 5: Yeah, the question here from a Gels chance and you
50:23
Speaker 5: use the development on your hyper loop idea, and you
50:25
Speaker 5: might be explain what your hyper loop idea is.
50:27
Speaker 3: Ha, Well, what I have said is that I'm putting
50:32
Speaker 3: the hyper loop stuff on hold until I get Tesla
50:35
Speaker 3: to profitability, because I think if I was an investor
50:40
Speaker 3: in Tesla, and they heard me sort of spouting off
50:42
Speaker 3: about the hyperloop before I got the company profitable. They
50:45
Speaker 3: were like, hey, you know, go do go do your job.
50:48
Speaker 4: So that's what I'm doing.
50:50
Speaker 3: I think once Tesla isn't it in a has been profitable,
50:53
Speaker 3: maybe for at least for a quarter, maybe two quarters,
50:56
Speaker 3: then i'll I'll.
50:57
Speaker 4: Talk about the hyper loop. But I think it could
51:00
Speaker 4: be an interesting way to.
51:02
Speaker 3: I mean, it would be an interesting way to travel
51:05
Speaker 3: really quickly from one city to the next.
51:07
Speaker 1: And quickly explain, just in one sense, what a hyper
51:09
Speaker 1: loop is.
51:10
Speaker 3: Well, it would be something that would be i'd say
51:15
Speaker 3: twice as fast as a plane, at least in terms
51:18
Speaker 3: of total transit time, maybe a little faster. It would
51:22
Speaker 3: be immune to whether incapable of crashing pretty much unless
51:29
Speaker 3: there's like a terrorist attack, and the ticket price would
51:35
Speaker 3: be like, let's say, half that of a plane, So it.
51:38
Speaker 1: Would be better in every way the train of some sort,
51:40
Speaker 1: though it's kind of it's.
51:44
Speaker 4: Not exactly a train.
51:45
Speaker 3: It would be a different It would be a new
51:47
Speaker 3: mode of transportation that doesn't currently exist.
51:49
Speaker 4: Terrestrial terrestrial, yeah.
51:52
Speaker 1: Okay, underground, above ground could go either a kind of subway.
51:57
Speaker 4: Perhaps I think it's I think it's.
52:01
Speaker 3: The capital costs will be less if it's mostly above ground,
52:03
Speaker 3: but you can go underground too.
52:06
Speaker 1: All right.
52:09
Speaker 2: Maybe last question, what's the biggest mistake you've ever made?
52:13
Speaker 2: And this is from Lexi Hill. Was the biggest mistake
52:15
Speaker 2: you've ever made? And how did you move forward looking back?
52:17
Speaker 2: Was it really that big a deal?
52:21
Speaker 4: Biggest mistake?
52:26
Speaker 3: I've made lots of mistakes, some of them some are
52:29
Speaker 3: pretty big.
52:39
Speaker 4: I mean, it's hard to say because things have worked
52:40
Speaker 4: out pretty well in the end.
52:42
Speaker 3: So how how big of a mistake could it have been?
52:44
Speaker 3: As the question is really really asking, you know, I
52:50
Speaker 3: did lots of dumb things at my first company and
52:52
Speaker 3: at PayPal, and you know, I think, I think sometimes.
53:03
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know.
53:05
Speaker 3: There's so many I like got I'm hard pressed to
53:07
Speaker 3: say this is this is the biggest. Thanks for listening.
53:09
Speaker 3: See you in the next episode.