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Jaguars Ceiling & Floor in 2025 · Duval Daily: A Jacksonville Jaguars Podcast

• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Jacksonville Jaguar's fans, welcome in to dovall daily presented by Jinjag.com.
• 0:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jordan Aluga.
• 0:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for being here Thursday August.
• 0:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Fourteenth.
• 0:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Jaguars do have practice today.
• 0:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Apparently it's going to be a pretty intense practice, full pads, supposed to be a scrimmage like practice, according to Liam Cohen.
• 0:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: So we'll keep you updated on that later in the day.
• 0:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: It starts a little bit later this morning than usual.
• 0:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: But right now I wanted to take a look at what I think the Jaguar's potential ceiling and floor is here in, twenty, twenty, five, no notes going off the dome on this stuff.
• 0:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I have a pretty strong feeling about where I'm at with the ceiling and the floor basically for the Jaguars and
• 0:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk about it here.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I really appreciate you being here.
• 0:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you enjoy the content, please like and subscribe.
• 0:56
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• 1:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm wearing right now.
• 1:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Look good while supporting the channel.
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: Further, really appreciate you.
• 1:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: So Jacksonville Jag wars.
• 1:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: We'll start with the floor.
• 1:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think one thing we can say pretty close to certain special teams will be helpful.
• 1:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Special teams going to help the Jaguars, not hinder the Jaguars, so that's good.
• 1:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that there's really much of a floor to be had on special teams.
• 1:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Based on everything we've seen with the top three special teamers, and then the core group around them, and Heath Farwell's coaching, I think they're going to have a good special team.
• 1:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to help them potentially win games.
• 1:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Defensively, what is the floor?
• 1:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think it could be pretty bad.
• 1:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think it could be really bad.
• 1:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, the floor.
• 1:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: The floor, to me, looks like Anthony Campanile goes through a lot of growing pains as a defensive coordinator first time in the NFL.
• 2:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of poor performances, missed alignments, missed assignments early on, maybe throughout the season.
• 2:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Defensive tackle doesn't get settled like you don't get Eric or Mason Smith for consistent amount of time and even when you do they're not quite ready because they didn't have training camps.
• 2:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: It still remains to be seen when they'll be back.
• 2:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: I still think Mason Smith looks really close.
• 2:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: But again, still on the active slash PUP, Mason Smith is.
• 2:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Your safety position doesn't really get worked out.
• 2:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, Eric Murray had a career year last year, but
• 2:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: in a much different environment.
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like Houston has an elite defense of head coach in a elite talent around Eric Murray last year.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: That doesn't happen again this year.
• 3:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Your other safety spot.
• 3:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Just not very good because Kayla Branson.
• 3:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: Feeling with injury isn't ready to make that full time transition to being a starting safety in the NFL after playing outside corner and nickel in college.
• 3:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: And more I look at that pick, the more reminds me of Trayvon.
• 3:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, obviously much different stakes in the third round versus the first overall pick, but like
• 3:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: You had the opportunity to draft aid in Hutchinson.
• 3:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: You wouldn't got Tray Mom Walker, and I love Tray Mom, obviously, but nobody's comparing him to aid in Hutchinson at this point.
• 3:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then with Caleb Ransal, you know, you go get this guy who has unbelievable traits, hard working football player, tough football player doesn't miss tackles, does things the right way, but hasn't really done what you're going to ask him to do, all right?
• 3:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Same thing with driven walker hasn't really played edge full time the way you're asking him to do.
• 4:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: and Caleb Ransal hasn't played safety the way you're asking him to do.
• 4:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: But both of these guys have unbelievable traits, and you had proven commodities available, again, Adon Hutchinson this time, Xavier Watts, when you took these guys.
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it'll be interesting to see how that ends up playing out.
• 4:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's just kind of a little sidebar.
• 4:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, you know, safety doesn't look very good, right now defensive tackle doesn't look very good, right now you have
• 4:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: The two guys that they wanted to be starting outside are both injured right now.
• 4:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Tyson Campbell's day today, maybe he'll be back today.
• 4:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he'll be back this week.
• 4:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he won't have a injury late in season the way he has last couple years.
• 4:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe maybe not.
• 4:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Buster Brown was supposed to be a starter for the one on the outside.
• 4:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's not happening either.
• 4:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I personally thought Jarian Jones should be out there anyways.
• 4:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: But, you know,
• 4:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Corner is unsettling right now.
• 4:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Safety is unsettling right now.
• 5:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: The defensive operation in week one when the starters were out there given, you know, we know it was only one drive, but that was unsettling.
• 5:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Defensive tackle is unsettling.
• 5:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: So there's a floor here with this defense where I think that they could be a really bad bad unit.
• 5:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now one thing I will say, I think the offense
• 5:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Even if the offense isn't what we want it to be in Jacksonville, I think the offense will help the defense out more than the offense did last year in terms of just giving them a rest.
• 5:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that the defense will have some fight.
• 5:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Josh Heinz Allen, Tray mom Walker,
• 5:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, foe, lua can Travis Hunter, Jari and Jones, like these guys really do bring it at a high level and I think they have good edge depth now.
• 5:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: So like I think that there's some things there that are gonna prevent it from bottoming out the way that last year's defense did.
• 6:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I still think it could be pretty bad.
• 6:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think at worst though, they will be a little more opportunistic and a little bit more well-coached and bought in than they were last year.
• 6:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that could still be pretty bad, but at least I think that there's going to be times where they can get off the field, times where they can force turnovers, right?
• 6:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I do.
• 6:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Jordan Lewis, I forgot to mention, I think he's going to be a really good addition.
• 6:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I still think they could be like a bottom
• 6:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: seventy-fifth percentile or below, you know, like bottom eight defense in the NFL for sure.
• 6:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that that could be the case.
• 6:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, talking about the floor.
• 6:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think offensively the floor is you have a offense that can move the ball and offense that is creative that uses motion that uses
• 6:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: that uses the screen game that gets Trevor Lawrence easy answers, that creates space for your top players, but there are too many mental mistakes, pre-snap penalties, post-snap penalties, drops, missed assignments on the offensive line, missed reads by the quarterback to where probably the numbers from a
• 7:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, total yards looks pretty good, but you just don't put up the points you want to or need to with a defense that is potentially very subpar.
• 7:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where you get the floor.
• 7:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Offensive mistakes lead you to not be able to win these shootouts with a defense that is plucky and aggressive and makes plays here and there, but just not good enough at certain spots to really be a good unit.
• 8:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: So
• 8:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: I really, I think that that's the floor.
• 8:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: And what does that lead to?
• 8:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, to me, that again, with a good special team, that probably puts you around six wins.
• 8:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because I think there's no chance that the offense is bad as it was last year.
• 8:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think there's really no chance that the defense is as bad as it was last year.
• 8:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so you get to six wins.
• 8:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: Last year, the Jaguar should have been minimum, like a seven win team based on just like regression.
• 8:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, when regression, you know, one little play happening different here and there during a specific game, like bad like eight to ten games where they were within one score of winning the game.
• 8:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not trying to say they were a good team last year.
• 8:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: They weren't.
• 8:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think six wins is legitimately probably the four.
• 8:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sealing wise.
• 9:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think you start with the offense with that ceiling.
• 9:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: We'll start with special things, but start with the offense.
• 9:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the offense has the potential to be really freaking good, really good coaching, really good offensive design, really good play calling, play sequencing, hitting all those little areas that really help offensive succeed.
• 9:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then Trevor Lawrence being more comfortable in that than he has been the last year and a half, right?
• 9:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: Having Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr.
• 9:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think is a potential cheat code, honestly, for this offense, like those two guys, it's possible that during their first year together on offense that they become like,
• 9:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think there's legitimate possibility they become a top five wide receiver duo in the league.
• 10:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: But even if you want to say the ceiling is then being a top ten wide receiver duo in the league with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback playing more comfortable in this Liam Cohen offense that gives him more more answers that guides him to be more of an effective NFL quarterback.
• 10:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 10:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Better running game, even if the running game's not great, which I don't know that it will be great.
• 10:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: It will be better.
• 10:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: It will be better coach and better scheme up than it has been.
• 10:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I mean, I think the offense could be one of the, I mean, ceiling again could be a top five offense in the league.
• 10:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: defensively what is the ceiling and safety play is concerning defensive tackle injuries are concerning corner injuries are concerning but let's say you get Mason Smith and Eric arms to back for the regular season and they're actually ready to play let's say you know Tyson is it would actually play I think they could be a probably like in the
• 11:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: around middle of the pack defensively, in totality, but a defense that combined with the offense that we're talking about, the ceiling offense that we're talking about gets you to be a really good team like, and a defense like that with an offense like that, I think there's guys that can get their hands on the football.
• 11:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And even though I don't love the safeties, I do think that they're smart.
• 11:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: And they can get down hill and break up passes.
• 11:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: Jordan Lewis can break up passes.
• 11:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Travis Hunter can break up passes.
• 11:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Get their hands on the football.
• 11:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Josh Heinz Allen, Trayvon Walker, Emmanuel Logba, DeWon, Smooth, plus Eric Armstead Mason Smith.
• 11:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: You can get a little excited about that.
• 11:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the linebackers are good.
• 12:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, that to me is like a, you know, maybe slightly ahead of middle of the pack.
• 12:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe like,
• 12:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: thirteen to fourteen, fifteen range, something like that in the NFL.
• 12:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Peak defense for the Jaguars this year.
• 12:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's probably, I mean, if all those things come together, I mean, it's probably a twelve wind team.
• 12:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because even if all those things come together, there's just going to be a little bit of growing pains at times with a coaching staff that is never done this before.
• 12:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: At almost every level of the coaching staff, you have somebody who hasn't done this before, right?
• 12:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Liam Cohen never been a head coach.
• 12:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Anthony Camponele never been a defensive coordinator.
• 12:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: He did do it in college, so you have to say that he wasn't going to go to even the coordinator in college, but not at the NFL level.
• 12:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Great, he didn't ski.
• 12:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Never been an offensive coordinator, you know, goes on and on and on.
• 13:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think even if this team like plays how it could, there's going to be some growing pain, you're going to lose a couple of close games here and there, etc.
• 13:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: You'll probably have a couple bad games.
• 13:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I think twelve wins is probably the ceiling.
• 13:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Six wins I put at the floor, so I mean, that's a massive gap.
• 13:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: and the potential possible outcomes for this team.
• 13:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Usually the way I look at it is I try to come somewhere in the middle of what I think the ceiling in floor is.
• 13:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: Do I think the ceiling is more likely?
• 13:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Do I think the floor is more likely?
• 13:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm starting to feel like I think that the floor is more likely on defense or being closer to the floor is more likely on defense.
• 13:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like
• 13:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm closer to the ceiling on offense.
• 13:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: I really do think the combination of Liam Cohen, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Hunter, Brian Thomas Jr., is going to be special.
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you add in a good enough offensive line, good enough run game, good enough ancillary pieces with ETA and two in, you know, bigs be as a runner.
• 14:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Brenton Strange, I think, is a good player.
• 14:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Diami Brown has wide receiver three, you know, Parker Washington can make plays.
• 14:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's where I'm at.
• 14:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the offense is going to be good.
• 14:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the defense is going to be bad.
• 14:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I would put them, I think last time I did this, I was at ten.
• 14:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: When I first did it, ten wins.
• 14:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: When I first did it, I was at nine.
• 14:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'd probably be about nine right now if I had to predict.
• 14:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Part of that is the schedule.
• 14:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's not an easy schedule necessarily when you talk about playing the AFC West and the NFC West, but you do get
• 14:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Panthers in week one, you get the Titans and Colts twice.
• 14:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: You get the Texans who I think that, yeah, those are tough games, but I think you'll probably split with them.
• 15:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: You get the Jets in Jacksonville.
• 15:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Some of these teams have to come to Jacksonville again from the AFC West and the NFC West.
• 15:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: You do have to go out west a good bit, but yeah, I think nine, nine is where I would be at right now.
• 15:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: ceiling of twelve four of six split the difference put them at nine yeah let me know what y'all think in the comment section below and if you enjoy the content please like and subscribe y'all have a good one