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Predictable: Legends - PredictIt’s John Aristotle Phillips · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Sue and a new edition of Predictable Legends.
• 0:06
  We've got an incredible guest lined up for you,
• 0:07
  one of the originators of the entire prediction market industry.
• 0:12
  You don't want to miss this.
• 0:13
  Stay tuned.
• 0:14
  It all starts right now.
• 0:30
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:33
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 0:34
  We love when you join us as well at Predictableshow.com.
• 0:37
  Couple of things to tell you about before we get to our,
• 0:38
  our guest today.
• 0:40
  We have a copy of the predictable constitution that you can get
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  right now if you are a subscriber or wanna be a subscriber to
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  predictableShow.com.
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  Just go there,
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  all the rules of the road that I trade by
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  on a day to day basis.
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  These are things that I've learned,
• 0:57
  very tough lessons.
• 0:58
  Many of those lessons I've learned unpredicted,
• 1:00
  uh,
• 1:00
  who we're gonna be talking about.
• 1:02
  Uh,
• 1:02
  here in just a second.
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  Uh,
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  So check that out.
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  Tomorrow,
• 1:29
  all the picks come out and you get to either,
• 1:31
  uh,
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  join me on those picks,
• 1:33
  or you can just mock me
• 1:35
  for the terrible ones that I have,
• 1:36
  and there are
• 1:37
  just a few of those,
• 1:38
  of course.
• 1:39
  There's always a story,
• 1:40
  isn't there,
• 1:40
  when it comes to prediction markets.
• 1:42
  OK,
• 1:42
  let's not waste any more time.
• 1:43
  Let's get to
• 1:45
  today's episode of Predictable
• 1:46
  Legends.
• 1:56
  I'm so happy to welcome John Aristotle Phillips to the program.
• 1:59
  He is the co-founder and CEO of PredictI,
• 2:02
  a political prediction market
• 2:04
  that helped bring uh event forecasting into the mainstream.
• 2:08
  He is a longtime political entrepreneur,
• 2:10
  public policy innovator,
• 2:11
  and has spent decades in the prediction market world,
• 2:14
  long before he became a major part
• 2:15
  of the financial and political landscape.
• 2:17
  John,
• 2:18
  uh,
• 2:18
  it's an honor.
• 2:18
  Thanks so much for joining us on the program.
• 2:21
  Thank you,
• 2:21
  Stu.
• 2:22
  Good to be on.
• 2:23
  Uh,
• 2:23
  I want to,
• 2:24
  uh,
• 2:24
  start
• 2:25
  maybe going back a little bit before I predicted,
• 2:27
  if we could.
• 2:28
  My,
• 2:28
  uh,
• 2:28
  best story,
• 2:29
  uh,
• 2:30
  from,
• 2:30
  um,
• 2:30
  my academic career was the time that I had a,
• 2:33
  uh,
• 2:33
  French final exam
• 2:35
  and I calculated the exact amount of questions I
• 2:37
  needed to get right to pass the class,
• 2:39
  uh,
• 2:39
  and I did,
• 2:40
  uh,
• 2:41
  just barely,
• 2:42
  uh,
• 2:42
  and then I just left in the middle of the,
• 2:43
  the final.
• 2:45
  Your best story is a little better than that,
• 2:47
  because
• 2:48
  you're studying under a legend,
• 2:50
  Freeman Dyson,
• 2:51
  in college.
• 2:53
  And uh you are in the middle of a uh a conversation about nuclear weapons,
• 2:59
  and this story
• 3:01
  goes from your college career
• 3:03
  all the way to kind of altering
• 3:05
  the future of nuclear proliferation around the world.
• 3:09
  Can you
• 3:09
  kind of walk us through this is an incredible story.
• 3:13
  Thank you very much.
• 3:13
  That's,
• 3:14
  it's,
• 3:14
  I'm delighted you remember that.
• 3:16
  Um,
• 3:17
  not too many people do.
• 3:19
  That,
• 3:19
  it,
• 3:19
  it was,
• 3:20
  uh,
• 3:20
  I was a,
• 3:21
  a junior at Princeton,
• 3:23
  uh,
• 3:24
  and on academic probation,
• 3:26
  uh,
• 3:26
  perhaps not unlike you to.
• 3:28
  Uh,
• 3:28
  and,
• 3:29
  and,
• 3:29
  um,
• 3:30
  I was,
• 3:30
  I was in the physics department.
• 3:32
  And at,
• 3:32
  at Princeton,
• 3:33
  you have a,
• 3:33
  a
• 3:34
  junior thesis.
• 3:36
  The junior project,
• 3:37
  which takes a semester,
• 3:38
  we have 2 of those
• 3:40
  in the physics department,
• 3:41
  so in the fall and then then in the spring.
• 3:44
  And I chose for my
• 3:46
  Thesis project to try to design an atomic bomb.
• 3:49
  Now,
• 3:49
  my thesis advisor,
• 3:51
  Uh,
• 3:51
  was,
• 3:52
  was Freeman Dyson,
• 3:53
  who,
• 3:53
  as you say,
• 3:54
  was a legend.
• 3:54
  He was a,
• 3:55
  he was a mentor to me,
• 3:57
  but,
• 3:57
  um,
• 3:57
  just a,
• 3:58
  an amazing guy,
• 3:59
  and I won't try to encapsulate his brilliant career,
• 4:02
  but
• 4:03
  Freeman,
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  uh,
• 4:04
  made it clear at the beginning when I asked him to be my thesis advisor
• 4:07
  that he could not give me any classified information of which he was privy.
• 4:11
  To.
• 4:12
  And so it was,
• 4:13
  uh,
• 4:13
  it was on my own.
• 4:14
  Um,
• 4:15
  and the objective was to do this from publicly available documents.
• 4:19
  And I,
• 4:20
  uh,
• 4:21
  spent the semester working on it and turned the paper in,
• 4:23
  and when I went back to pick it up
• 4:25
  at the physics department,
• 4:26
  uh,
• 4:27
  for work to get my grade,
• 4:28
  it was,
• 4:29
  I was told it had been classified.
• 4:31
  Uh,
• 4:31
  so,
• 4:32
  um,
• 4:32
  it was,
• 4:32
  uh,
• 4:33
  and it,
• 4:33
  and it got a lot of
• 4:34
  publicity.
• 4:35
  And as you point out,
• 4:36
  one of the good things to happen
• 4:38
  as a result of it was that,
• 4:40
  uh,
• 4:41
  I was a,
• 4:41
  uh,
• 4:42
  a,
• 4:42
  a sale of a plutonium reprocessing facility from France.
• 4:47
  To Pakistan,
• 4:49
  which was desirous.
• 4:50
  Pakistan wanted to get
• 4:52
  atomic bombs,
• 4:53
  um,
• 4:54
  at the time,
• 4:54
  and,
• 4:55
  and they got them eventually,
• 4:56
  unfortunately,
• 4:56
  but,
• 4:57
  um,
• 4:57
  the sale of the plutonium reprocessing
• 5:00
  facility was canceled by the French government
• 5:03
  as a result of a Pakistani operative being caught trying to buy the design
• 5:07
  from me.
• 5:08
  Uh,
• 5:08
  so
• 5:09
  it was a,
• 5:09
  it was an interesting
• 5:11
  segue
• 5:12
  from college to
• 5:13
  real life,
• 5:14
  I guess you'd call it.
• 5:15
  Um,
• 5:16
  for me anyway,
• 5:17
  it really is,
• 5:18
  and it's,
• 5:18
  it's such a fascinating story.
• 5:20
  I mean,
• 5:21
  that in and of itself is worthy of a book,
• 5:23
  right,
• 5:23
  not to mention what you went on to do,
• 5:25
  but I think it's,
• 5:26
  it's fascinating to look at that as sort of a seed
• 5:29
  to what you wound up doing in your life because I,
• 5:32
  I think there is,
• 5:33
  I mean,
• 5:33
  I think
• 5:34
  Freeman Dyson,
• 5:35
  you know,
• 5:35
  we,
• 5:35
  we've talked about him,
• 5:36
  he's a legend for a bunch of different things,
• 5:38
  but I think one of the reasons why I think he was so respected.
• 5:41
  Is he was always willing to ask difficult questions,
• 5:45
  to push back when everyone told him things were one way,
• 5:48
  he would
• 5:49
  oftentimes go the other and say,
• 5:51
  wait a minute,
• 5:52
  I wanna ask an uncomfortable question.
• 5:54
  And,
• 5:55
  you know,
• 5:55
  when you think about the world of prediction markets.
• 5:58
  You go through a period,
• 6:00
  especially after 9/11,
• 6:01
  where there's sort of a publicized interest in them by the government to say,
• 6:06
  hey,
• 6:06
  how can we figure out
• 6:08
  how to understand the world a little bit better?
• 6:10
  Prediction markets are floated and just destroyed by the media,
• 6:13
  destroyed by politicians.
• 6:14
  This would be the worst thing in the world.
• 6:16
  What are we doing?
• 6:16
  We're betting on terrorism and all these terrible things they accuse people of.
• 6:20
  There was a time where this was thought of as,
• 6:23
  um,
• 6:23
  you know,
• 6:24
  a,
• 6:24
  a,
• 6:24
  a scary world to enter,
• 6:26
  and at some level,
• 6:27
  I guess it it sure is to this day,
• 6:30
  but this was not something that,
• 6:31
  you know,
• 6:31
  people were inviting you to get involved in,
• 6:33
  that you were that was an immediately,
• 6:35
  uh,
• 6:35
  a thing that was embraced.
• 6:37
  How did you get the idea to even get into the world of prediction markets?
• 6:42
  So that,
• 6:42
  that's a great question,
• 6:44
  and I'll forgive me if it's,
• 6:45
  uh,
• 6:46
  it's a little bit of twists and turns.
• 6:47
  We were not,
• 6:49
  I,
• 6:49
  I'm the CEO of a company called Aristotle,
• 6:51
  which also happens to be my middle name and my little brother's
• 6:54
  and partner's middle name.
• 6:56
  Our parents were Greek.
• 6:57
  Uh,
• 6:58
  and,
• 6:58
  and
• 6:59
  Aristotle is a,
• 7:00
  is a political technology company.
• 7:02
  We're non-partisan.
• 7:03
  We supply software and voter
• 7:06
  data and,
• 7:07
  Other services,
• 7:09
  uh,
• 7:09
  online fundraising,
• 7:10
  for instance,
• 7:10
  to people who are running for public office or
• 7:12
  otherwise want to influence decisions at the ballot box.
• 7:15
  And so,
• 7:17
  Excuse me,
• 7:17
  sorry.
• 7:18
  No,
• 7:19
  it's OK.
• 7:19
  Um.
• 7:21
  We,
• 7:21
  we,
• 7:21
  um,
• 7:26
  Came up with the idea of predict it.
• 7:28
  Uh,
• 7:29
  because polling was broken,
• 7:30
  and,
• 7:31
  uh,
• 7:31
  it was harder and harder
• 7:33
  to,
• 7:34
  um,
• 7:35
  get,
• 7:35
  conduct accurate public opinion polls with the advent of cell phones and the like.
• 7:40
  Uh,
• 7:40
  and we,
• 7:40
  we had many of these pollsters as customers of ours,
• 7:43
  they would buy
• 7:44
  registered voter samples or primary voter samples from us.
• 7:47
  So,
• 7:48
  um,
• 7:48
  we were,
• 7:49
  we,
• 7:49
  we
• 7:50
  came up with the idea of
• 7:52
  trying
• 7:53
  to use a market to forecast future events.
• 7:55
  Now,
• 7:55
  we were not the first to come up with that idea.
• 7:57
  There have been some prediction markets before predicted was started.
• 8:01
  Predicted burst on the scene in 20
• 8:03
  in 2014,
• 8:05
  when we got permission
• 8:07
  from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission
• 8:09
  to open a prediction market.
• 8:11
  Uh,
• 8:11
  without being prosecuted
• 8:12
  by the federal government for running an,
• 8:14
  an illegal exchange.
• 8:15
  And we were not going to do it if it was not legal.
• 8:17
  We had many,
• 8:18
  many,
• 8:18
  many thousands of elected officials as customers and pollsters,
• 8:21
  as I said.
• 8:22
  So,
• 8:23
  um,
• 8:23
  there was intrade which came before us.
• 8:25
  There was the Iowa Electronic Markets,
• 8:28
  which was
• 8:29
  one of the original prediction markets,
• 8:30
  but markets have been used to
• 8:32
  forecast future events and political events specifically
• 8:35
  for a long,
• 8:36
  long time.
• 8:37
  In fact,
• 8:37
  I'm
• 8:38
  talking to you from Wall Street today.
• 8:40
  And not far from where I am sitting is the New York Stock Exchange.
• 8:45
  And on the steps of the New York Stock Exchange,
• 8:48
  uh,
• 8:48
  on the,
• 8:49
  on the eve of elections,
• 8:50
  you could take bets,
• 8:51
  you could place bets,
• 8:52
  uh,
• 8:53
  as,
• 8:53
  as long ago as 100 years ago
• 8:55
  on who would win the election.
• 8:57
  So,
• 8:58
  these markets are considered to be
• 9:00
  fairly accurate.
• 9:01
  They're not 100% accurate,
• 9:03
  uh,
• 9:03
  but they're considered to be fairly
• 9:05
  accurate forecasting mechanisms
• 9:08
  of future events.
• 9:09
  Uh,
• 9:10
  where people,
• 9:11
  and I can explain why that is,
• 9:12
  but I think your,
• 9:13
  your listeners
• 9:14
  already know why that is.
• 9:16
  Yeah,
• 9:16
  no,
• 9:16
  it's,
• 9:16
  it's,
• 9:17
  it's true,
• 9:17
  um,
• 9:18
  you know,
• 9:18
  it's,
• 9:19
  it's funny because this is obviously
• 9:21
  really important information to people,
• 9:23
  right?
• 9:23
  And,
• 9:23
  and,
• 9:23
  and it cuts through.
• 9:24
  I,
• 9:24
  I'm,
• 9:25
  I'm continually fascinated.
• 9:27
  At the ability for,
• 9:28
  of prediction markets
• 9:30
  to tell us things that everybody involved in the situation doesn't want us to know,
• 9:35
  right?
• 9:35
  Like,
• 9:36
  I listen to campaigns talk about their campaigns.
• 9:38
  They both say they're easily winning all the time.
• 9:41
  I listen to the,
• 9:42
  the,
• 9:42
  the mainstream media and,
• 9:43
  and they will often say,
• 9:45
  you know,
• 9:45
  look,
• 9:45
  this is a toss-up,
• 9:46
  who knows what's gonna happen?
• 9:47
  I,
• 9:48
  I,
• 9:48
  I will listen to even partisan media,
• 9:49
  some of which I,
• 9:50
  I really like,
• 9:51
  uh,
• 9:51
  but,
• 9:52
  you know,
• 9:52
  there's,
• 9:52
  there's rooting interest there.
• 9:53
  Everyone has the thing that they feel,
• 9:55
  but
• 9:56
  nobody does that when their own money is on the line,
• 9:59
  and you see,
• 10:00
  like the media is saying,
• 10:01
  oh,
• 10:01
  this is a toss-up,
• 10:02
  and you go to predict it and it's at 97% that one way is gonna happen.
• 10:06
  It's a way of cutting through,
• 10:09
  uh,
• 10:09
  and a real problem in our media and,
• 10:12
  and news,
• 10:12
  uh,
• 10:13
  diet,
• 10:13
  and I just,
• 10:14
  it's such an incredible innovation.
• 10:17
  Is that what you wanted to get to when you started this,
• 10:20
  or was it just something where you thought,
• 10:22
  hey,
• 10:22
  this will be valuable for my clients?
• 10:26
  I'd like to tell you that we foresaw how big this was gonna be.
• 10:29
  We did not,
• 10:30
  uh,
• 10:31
  we,
• 10:31
  we,
• 10:32
  you forgot one other thing that's appealing about these prediction markets.
• 10:35
  They're insanely fun.
• 10:37
  Yeah,
• 10:37
  yes,
• 10:37
  I mean,
• 10:38
  you,
• 10:38
  you,
• 10:38
  you know,
• 10:38
  I mean,
• 10:39
  you're a predictive trader,
• 10:40
  um,
• 10:41
  that once you get a little skin in the game,
• 10:44
  whether it's a sports bet or a
• 10:46
  political bet,
• 10:47
  uh,
• 10:47
  it's,
• 10:48
  you,
• 10:48
  you start to focus.
• 10:49
  It clears your head.
• 10:50
  It's this miraculous thing that happens that you don't.
• 10:53
  You don't
• 10:54
  put as much emphasis,
• 10:56
  or at least you try to,
• 10:57
  you're better able to control what you want to have happen.
• 11:01
  From,
• 11:02
  separate that from what you think is gonna happen.
• 11:04
  And the part that uses the brain rather than the heart
• 11:07
  starts to be more powerful in terms of how you analyze
• 11:12
  an election,
• 11:13
  a sporting event,
• 11:14
  any kind of activity of human endeavor.
• 11:16
  So,
• 11:17
  yeah,
• 11:17
  I mean,
• 11:17
  we,
• 11:18
  we,
• 11:18
  we,
• 11:19
  we,
• 11:19
  we started this because we were looking for a solution to a discrete problem,
• 11:22
  as often happens with innovation.
• 11:25
  An invention.
• 11:26
  We were looking for a solution to a discrete problem,
• 11:29
  which is,
• 11:30
  Polling is not really working as well anymore.
• 11:33
  Uh,
• 11:33
  polling is good,
• 11:34
  by the way,
• 11:35
  and I,
• 11:36
  I take my hat off to my pollster friends
• 11:38
  and customers.
• 11:39
  The polling is great if you want an
• 11:41
  in-depth deep dive
• 11:42
  to understand
• 11:44
  why people
• 11:45
  feel the way they do about something.
• 11:47
  Uh,
• 11:48
  it's,
• 11:48
  it's,
• 11:48
  it's great for that.
• 11:49
  Prediction markets don't tell you why.
• 11:51
  Prediction markets will tell you,
• 11:53
  answer a different question,
• 11:54
  which is what is gonna happen,
• 11:56
  not why people feel this way,
• 11:57
  but what are people likely to do.
• 11:59
  And prediction markets are great for that.
• 12:02
  And again,
• 12:02
  I emphasize they're not perfect,
• 12:04
  right?
• 12:04
  There,
• 12:04
  there,
• 12:05
  there are,
• 12:06
  but,
• 12:06
  but when
• 12:07
  something,
• 12:08
  When the odds are
• 12:10
  20%,
• 12:10
  only 20% that something's gonna happen,
• 12:13
  that means that 20% of the time,
• 12:14
  that thing is gonna happen.
• 12:17
  So,
• 12:17
  these markets assigned are great,
• 12:20
  they're brilliant
• 12:21
  at distilling billions of pieces of information.
• 12:25
  Into
• 12:27
  prices.
• 12:28
  Which is distilled in effect into odds,
• 12:31
  and they do that instantaneously,
• 12:33
  they do that 24/7,
• 12:35
  and
• 12:35
  the markets
• 12:37
  are,
• 12:37
  uh,
• 12:38
  are pretty prescient when it comes to future events.
• 12:41
  I wanted to get back to your comment about Dyson.
• 12:42
  I could not agree more.
• 12:44
  I mean,
• 12:44
  he was a guy that,
• 12:45
  that asked questions.
• 12:47
  Um,
• 12:47
  I'm thrilled that you know about Dyson,
• 12:49
  but Freeman Dyson was somebody who asked uncomfortable questions and,
• 12:53
  and,
• 12:53
  uh,
• 12:54
  really was,
• 12:55
  uh,
• 12:56
  An amazing influence on my life and on the lives of many people,
• 12:59
  I think
• 13:00
  an important figure to science overall and the country,
• 13:02
  I think,
• 13:03
  uh,
• 13:03
  as well.
• 13:04
  Uh,
• 13:04
  so yes,
• 13:04
  I,
• 13:05
  I,
• 13:05
  I didn't know that part of the story until I started researching it.
• 13:08
  I'd heard the,
• 13:08
  uh,
• 13:08
  the part of,
• 13:09
  of your initial essay,
• 13:10
  but I did not,
• 13:11
  I did not tie it to Dyson until,
• 13:12
  until recently.
• 13:13
  I couldn't believe that,
• 13:13
  that
• 13:14
  it makes so much sense.
• 13:15
  It really,
• 13:15
  it really does.
• 13:16
  Uh,
• 13:17
  so such a cool guy.
• 13:18
  Yeah,
• 13:18
  that's so cool.
• 13:19
  Um,
• 13:19
  and one other clarification for you,
• 13:21
  John,
• 13:21
  uh,
• 13:21
  I am not.
• 13:21
  A predicted market trader.
• 13:23
  I am a level 7 oracle.
• 13:24
  OK,
• 13:25
  I don't wanna brag about it.
• 13:27
  I mean,
• 13:27
  uh,
• 13:28
  I'm not just some trader.
• 13:29
  I'm a level 7 oracle.
• 13:31
  I'm putting it on my business cards.
• 13:33
  Uh,
• 13:34
  John,
• 13:34
  I wanna take a quick,
• 13:35
  uh,
• 13:35
  a quick break.
• 13:36
  We're gonna come back on the other side because I wanna talk about.
• 13:38
  Uh,
• 13:39
  how we got from
• 13:40
  you starting this and,
• 13:41
  and how it was allowed initially
• 13:44
  and then your battles,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:46
  with
• 13:46
  DC
• 13:48
  because those are sort of legendary.
• 13:49
  I think you guys were treated incredibly unfairly.
• 13:52
  I was ranting about it on the air back in the day.
• 13:54
  Uh,
• 13:54
  I wanna go through that,
• 13:55
  uh,
• 13:55
  history as well
• 13:56
  and maybe some markets that you're looking at right now that people can jump on,
• 14:00
  predict it.
• 14:00
  Uh,
• 14:01
  thanks so much for joining us.
• 14:02
  It's Predictable Legends.
• 14:03
  We have more with John in just a second.
• 14:25
  We're back with John Aristotle Phillips,
• 14:27
  co-founder and CEO of the Prediction Market.
• 14:30
  Predict it.
• 14:31
  Uh,
• 14:32
  John,
• 14:32
  I was,
• 14:32
  uh,
• 14:32
  in Washington,
• 14:33
  uh,
• 14:34
  recently.
• 14:34
  We're just,
• 14:34
  uh,
• 14:35
  getting the show started,
• 14:36
  and I'm walking through DC
• 14:38
  and,
• 14:38
  um,
• 14:39
  we're going on to record an interview with the CFTC chair,
• 14:42
  Michael Selig.
• 14:43
  Um,
• 14:43
  and I'm on my way to the studio where we're recording this,
• 14:46
  and I,
• 14:47
  we walked by all the big buildings,
• 14:48
  you know,
• 14:48
  all the ones that you recognize,
• 14:49
  the Supreme Court's there and everything else.
• 14:51
  And I turn over to the right,
• 14:52
  and there seems,
• 14:53
  there's a big sign for predicted,
• 14:55
  the predicted headquarters,
• 14:57
  uh,
• 14:57
  right there in the middle of DC and frankly,
• 14:59
  it seems like you guys needed a headquarters there
• 15:02
  because
• 15:03
  it,
• 15:03
  it,
• 15:04
  there have,
• 15:04
  there's been a back and forth
• 15:06
  with prediction markets overall and predicted,
• 15:09
  I think,
• 15:09
  was played a huge role
• 15:11
  in where we are today.
• 15:13
  Can you go back to 2014,
• 15:15
  cause you guys are not set up necessarily like
• 15:17
  some of the other prediction markets we know today.
• 15:19
  You came into existence
• 15:20
  through an academic license,
• 15:22
  correct?
• 15:23
  That's correct.
• 15:24
  Well,
• 15:24
  it was a,
• 15:24
  it was a
• 15:25
  permission from the Commodities Futures Trading
• 15:27
  Commission called a no action letter.
• 15:29
  They issued,
• 15:30
  in those days,
• 15:31
  they issued
• 15:32
  thousands of no-action letters to businesses saying,
• 15:34
  look,
• 15:34
  if we
• 15:35
  organize our affairs or do this in such a way,
• 15:38
  are we gonna be in compliance with the law?
• 15:40
  And then the,
• 15:40
  the,
• 15:41
  the,
• 15:41
  in this case,
• 15:42
  the Commodities Futures Trading Commission
• 15:44
  sent us a,
• 15:45
  a letter saying,
• 15:46
  if you operate the prediction market in this way,
• 15:48
  which includes
• 15:49
  participation.
• 15:51
  From,
• 15:51
  uh,
• 15:52
  universities,
• 15:53
  uh,
• 15:53
  who are studying the,
• 15:54
  the impact of markets and,
• 15:57
  and all the interesting things that prediction markets,
• 16:00
  um,
• 16:01
  carry with them,
• 16:02
  um,
• 16:02
  then,
• 16:02
  then you'll be doing it legally.
• 16:04
  So we got a permission from the,
• 16:06
  from the regulator
• 16:07
  in 2014.
• 16:08
  We opened
• 16:09
  predicted in 2014 right before the election.
• 16:12
  Uh,
• 16:12
  it was,
• 16:13
  uh,
• 16:14
  a midterm,
• 16:15
  and it was,
• 16:15
  uh,
• 16:16
  it was,
• 16:16
  it was slow at first,
• 16:18
  people were,
• 16:18
  it was word of mouth,
• 16:19
  but then people started to find out,
• 16:21
  hear about this site where you could actually bet on politics,
• 16:24
  and it just took off.
• 16:26
  Um,
• 16:27
  and,
• 16:27
  and it was,
• 16:28
  it was,
• 16:28
  uh,
• 16:29
  it's been a fantastic ride.
• 16:31
  Uh,
• 16:32
  and,
• 16:32
  and in fact,
• 16:33
  it,
• 16:33
  it grew so quickly
• 16:35
  that some of the,
• 16:36
  unfortunately,
• 16:37
  some of the regulators who had approved it,
• 16:40
  Had second thoughts
• 16:41
  and decided that they didn't like the idea of having prediction markets,
• 16:45
  um,
• 16:45
  even though there were no scandals,
• 16:47
  there was no problem,
• 16:48
  people were,
• 16:49
  were,
• 16:49
  were taking to it,
• 16:50
  and the markets were proving to be incredibly accurate in terms of forecasting
• 16:55
  these events.
• 16:56
  Uh,
• 16:56
  so the commodities,
• 16:57
  the,
• 16:57
  the,
• 16:58
  the regulator decided to try to withdraw the no action letter.
• 17:01
  We sued the regulator,
• 17:03
  saying you can't just withdraw.
• 17:05
  The permission,
• 17:06
  you have to have a reason for doing it.
• 17:07
  It can't be just that
• 17:09
  you guys are too big for your britches or
• 17:11
  you grew too fast.
• 17:12
  You have to have a logical reason why
• 17:14
  you want to stop people from using their own money
• 17:17
  to engage in this activity,
• 17:18
  which has all this academic and political benefit.
• 17:21
  We won.
• 17:23
  We took it to the Court of Appeals
• 17:25
  in the 5th Circuit,
• 17:27
  and we won.
• 17:28
  And the judges said that the command,
• 17:30
  that the regulator had acted in an arbitrary and capricious fashion,
• 17:34
  uh,
• 17:34
  that we had a license to operate.
• 17:37
  And so we were able to um continue and not just continue,
• 17:41
  but also to grow it.
• 17:42
  So,
• 17:43
  that's the,
• 17:43
  that's the regulatory history.
• 17:45
  Now,
• 17:45
  it did lay the groundwork for other prediction markets which also went to the CFTC.
• 17:50
  Uh,
• 17:50
  and have since
• 17:52
  grown very quickly.
• 17:53
  Uh,
• 17:53
  and,
• 17:54
  and they are also,
• 17:55
  um,
• 17:56
  you know,
• 17:56
  they're embroiled in different types of
• 17:58
  legal fights because they
• 17:59
  are
• 18:01
  doing sports betting and the like,
• 18:02
  which is in conflict with some of the
• 18:04
  states which want to regulate
• 18:06
  sports betting,
• 18:08
  um,
• 18:08
  as opposed to the federal government,
• 18:09
  which also wants to regulate sports betting through the CFTC.
• 18:12
  So,
• 18:13
  that's not a fight that we're involved in.
• 18:15
  Um,
• 18:15
  we are,
• 18:16
  we are focused on political,
• 18:19
  Predictions,
• 18:19
  political event contracts,
• 18:21
  and that's really where we excel.
• 18:23
  Yeah,
• 18:24
  I,
• 18:24
  I,
• 18:24
  I,
• 18:24
  I don't wanna pass by this,
• 18:26
  uh,
• 18:26
  too quickly here,
• 18:27
  John,
• 18:27
  because
• 18:28
  I wanna just stop and focus on how bonkers this was for this to happen to you guys.
• 18:33
  You,
• 18:33
  you ran an organization the exact way the government told you to run it,
• 18:37
  right?
• 18:37
  You,
• 18:38
  you said it all out.
• 18:39
  They said we won't do anything if you run it this way.
• 18:42
  You did this for multiple years.
• 18:43
  You built a very important part
• 18:45
  of our news and information culture,
• 18:47
  the thing that was important to me,
• 18:48
  uh,
• 18:48
  as a trader.
• 18:50
  And all of a sudden,
• 18:51
  for literally no reason,
• 18:52
  and I,
• 18:52
  if I remember right,
• 18:53
  John,
• 18:53
  no explanation.
• 18:55
  They just said,
• 18:56
  by the way,
• 18:56
  you no longer can operate this way.
• 18:59
  I mean,
• 18:59
  that is,
• 18:59
  uh,
• 19:00
  if they did that to another business,
• 19:02
  I think it would be on the front page of every newspaper.
• 19:04
  It was covered a little bit,
• 19:05
  but I don't think enough.
• 19:06
  Uh,
• 19:07
  that should not happen.
• 19:08
  The government should not be doing that to any business,
• 19:10
  prediction market or not.
• 19:12
  No,
• 19:12
  I mean,
• 19:13
  uh,
• 19:13
  but the,
• 19:14
  the high point of the court case was when one of the
• 19:16
  judges and the three-judge panel at the Court of Appeals leaned over the
• 19:19
  podium and talked,
• 19:20
  looked at the government
• 19:21
  lawyer and said,
• 19:22
  you think you have a license to bully?
• 19:25
  And,
• 19:26
  and,
• 19:26
  and the fact of the matter is,
• 19:27
  this is,
• 19:28
  you know,
• 19:28
  so,
• 19:29
  but the,
• 19:29
  you know what,
• 19:30
  the system worked,
• 19:31
  uh,
• 19:32
  it was,
• 19:32
  yes,
• 19:33
  it was unfair,
• 19:33
  it was unjustified,
• 19:34
  it was a definite speed bump
• 19:36
  for us,
• 19:37
  cost a lot of money,
• 19:38
  we won.
• 19:40
  And that,
• 19:41
  and it's not just we want,
• 19:42
  it's the people who participate in prediction markets and prediction market,
• 19:45
  and I think democracy
• 19:46
  is better for it.
• 19:48
  One of the,
• 19:48
  one of the criticisms that,
• 19:50
  you know,
• 19:50
  the government never did provide any reasons,
• 19:52
  which is why they're,
• 19:53
  Case got thrown out.
• 19:55
  Um,
• 19:56
  but the,
• 19:57
  you know,
• 19:57
  the,
• 19:57
  the idea that,
• 19:59
  that prediction markets are somehow a threat to democracy is,
• 20:02
  is,
• 20:03
  it's really insulting.
• 20:05
  You know,
• 20:05
  there are lots of threats to democracy.
• 20:07
  Democracy is pretty strong,
• 20:08
  by the way,
• 20:08
  it's pretty healthy.
• 20:10
  It's been around for a long,
• 20:11
  long time.
• 20:12
  But to think that prediction markets,
• 20:14
  people
• 20:15
  putting small,
• 20:17
  $1 winner take all bets.
• 20:21
  On
• 20:22
  Political events,
• 20:23
  that this is going to somehow
• 20:25
  destroy our democracy,
• 20:27
  come on.
• 20:29
  I mean,
• 20:29
  you gotta do better than that,
• 20:31
  and
• 20:32
  They can't.
• 20:33
  It's kind of an insult to the founders,
• 20:35
  frankly.
• 20:35
  It really is like,
• 20:36
  I mean,
• 20:36
  this is a,
• 20:37
  a situation that's been built as we hear this all the time,
• 20:40
  and part of it,
• 20:41
  I think,
• 20:41
  John,
• 20:41
  is,
• 20:42
  you know,
• 20:42
  the media does say things a lot where they're like democracy is on the line.
• 20:46
  Democracy could be turned over tomorrow.
• 20:48
  Who knows what's around
• 20:49
  and like we've had,
• 20:50
  we have problems.
• 20:50
  Democracy can be messy.
• 20:52
  But it,
• 20:53
  think of the challenges that we've had from,
• 20:55
  you know,
• 20:55
  on both sides of the aisle over the years.
• 20:58
  Democracy,
• 20:59
  you know,
• 20:59
  as part of a constitutional republic,
• 21:01
  importantly,
• 21:02
  it's a,
• 21:02
  it's a part of the system,
• 21:03
  not the whole system.
• 21:04
  But like it is a,
• 21:05
  it's something that's been very,
• 21:06
  very durable,
• 21:07
  uh,
• 21:08
  and,
• 21:08
  uh,
• 21:08
  frankly,
• 21:08
  I think we,
• 21:10
  we,
• 21:10
  we scare the American people too often by saying it's about to go away,
• 21:14
  and if you elect the wrong person,
• 21:16
  it's gonna die forever.
• 21:17
  I,
• 21:17
  I don't think that's a,
• 21:18
  it's a way to,
• 21:18
  to make the country any healthier,
• 21:20
  that's for sure.
• 21:21
  No,
• 21:21
  it's not healthy.
• 21:22
  It's,
• 21:22
  it's not healthy.
• 21:23
  But,
• 21:23
  but the fact of the matter is the system worked.
• 21:26
  Prediction market's gonna be around for a long time to come.
• 21:29
  We'll talk about that later in the show,
• 21:30
  but,
• 21:31
  you know,
• 21:31
  these markets,
• 21:32
  look,
• 21:32
  the,
• 21:32
  the,
• 21:32
  the power
• 21:34
  of markets,
• 21:35
  which,
• 21:35
  uh,
• 21:36
  after all,
• 21:36
  consists of people putting their own money down,
• 21:39
  uh,
• 21:39
  predicting what they think is gonna happen.
• 21:42
  These markets are very,
• 21:43
  very powerful.
• 21:45
  And,
• 21:45
  and I,
• 21:46
  I respond,
• 21:48
  would echo what you say.
• 21:49
  I mean,
• 21:50
  If you can,
• 21:51
  if you,
• 21:51
  it's not perfect,
• 21:52
  you're pulling back the curtain just a little bit on the future,
• 21:55
  you're getting a,
• 21:56
  a better,
• 21:57
  a better perspective perhaps,
• 21:59
  greater insight into what's gonna happen by looking at what the markets are.
• 22:03
  Whether you're talking about the price of oil
• 22:05
  a year from now,
• 22:06
  a barrel of oil,
• 22:07
  or
• 22:08
  who's gonna win an election,
• 22:09
  the presidential election in 2028.
• 22:13
  Without thinking that the markets are perfect,
• 22:14
  if you can get insights into what is gonna happen
• 22:18
  in the future,
• 22:19
  why would you not wanna know that?
• 22:21
  Why would you not wanna have markets providing that information?
• 22:24
  Certainly in commodities markets,
• 22:27
  that information is essential.
• 22:29
  What the weather is gonna be,
• 22:30
  what the growing season's gonna be for farmers,
• 22:33
  all that information is hugely important
• 22:36
  in hurricane season.
• 22:38
  Where the hurricanes are likely to hit,
• 22:40
  what the likely property damage is gonna be.
• 22:42
  We have a whole insurance industry premised
• 22:45
  on forecasting.
• 22:47
  So,
• 22:47
  the idea that forecasting something like political elections is somehow
• 22:51
  a threat to democracy is just preposterous.
• 22:54
  It's really,
• 22:55
  it really is.
• 22:56
  I,
• 22:56
  I'm gonna get into a little bit more of that here in a second,
• 22:58
  but one more question on just predict it and where it stands.
• 23:01
  You've gone through this whole thing.
• 23:02
  You've
• 23:03
  built,
• 23:03
  you know,
• 23:03
  really we're the only player in the industry,
• 23:05
  uh,
• 23:06
  for a very long time.
• 23:07
  Uh,
• 23:08
  now,
• 23:08
  obviously,
• 23:09
  everyone's getting into it,
• 23:10
  right?
• 23:10
  It's a,
• 23:10
  it's a big business.
• 23:11
  There's a couple of huge players.
• 23:12
  There's a bunch of other people trying to get into it and starting,
• 23:15
  uh,
• 23:16
  these new operations.
• 23:17
  How does predict it fit into the,
• 23:19
  the new landscape?
• 23:20
  Um,
• 23:20
  you know,
• 23:21
  back in the day,
• 23:21
  you had,
• 23:22
  you kind of,
• 23:22
  I mean,
• 23:23
  what we think of maybe now are smaller limits.
• 23:25
  I think it was $850 per contract.
• 23:27
  Um,
• 23:28
  now,
• 23:28
  uh,
• 23:29
  it's grown from that time,
• 23:30
  but you're going against people who have unlimited,
• 23:32
  uh,
• 23:33
  contracts.
• 23:34
  You've got all this other thing.
• 23:35
  How,
• 23:35
  how does,
• 23:35
  how does Predicted fit in today?
• 23:37
  That's a great question,
• 23:38
  and,
• 23:39
  and,
• 23:39
  and we're confident that there is
• 23:41
  a great market.
• 23:42
  First of all,
• 23:44
  there are gonna be more than,
• 23:45
  there's always gonna be more than one prediction market.
• 23:48
  We were,
• 23:48
  there was a while of time there where we were the only ones,
• 23:51
  and that was kind of lonely,
• 23:52
  and it made it easy for the government to pick on us.
• 23:54
  But
• 23:55
  the fact of the matter is,
• 23:57
  there are gonna be,
• 23:58
  Hundreds if not thousands of prediction markets on every
• 24:02
  conceivable possible thing that people might want to know
• 24:06
  what the future holds.
• 24:07
  So,
• 24:08
  news organizations alone,
• 24:10
  news organizations are gonna have their own prediction markets or subscribe
• 24:14
  to prediction markets like predicted or some of the others,
• 24:17
  um,
• 24:17
  because
• 24:18
  this gives,
• 24:18
  and what better way to monetize,
• 24:21
  Your news content,
• 24:22
  if you've got good solid reporting,
• 24:25
  which is expensive,
• 24:26
  it's prohibitively expensive to run a good newsroom.
• 24:30
  If you've got good solid content and you're,
• 24:32
  you figure out a way to sell that to your readers or your listeners as you guys have.
• 24:37
  That information,
• 24:39
  giving your listeners the ability to write on the spot.
• 24:44
  Profit from that
• 24:46
  information they're gleaning from the pages of your magazine or your newspaper,
• 24:49
  or your podcast.
• 24:51
  To be able to place a bet
• 24:53
  on who's gonna win an election,
• 24:55
  for instance,
• 24:55
  if you're reporting on the election.
• 24:57
  That is fantastic.
• 24:59
  It serves the function that polling has served in the past,
• 25:02
  which is the horse race piece of it.
• 25:04
  But it also serves the ability of letting,
• 25:06
  of engaging
• 25:08
  the viewers,
• 25:08
  engaging your readers,
• 25:10
  the people who are paying for that news content,
• 25:12
  letting them make some money back
• 25:14
  and putting their money where their mouth is.
• 25:15
  And so it's a great,
• 25:16
  it's a virtuous cycle.
• 25:18
  It's a,
• 25:18
  it's a,
• 25:19
  you know,
• 25:19
  it's,
• 25:19
  all the details haven't been worked out,
• 25:21
  but I think they're gonna be,
• 25:22
  the role for predicted is gonna be
• 25:25
  the go to place if you wanna bet on politics.
• 25:27
  If you want to be
• 25:29
  in an environment where there's smart money,
• 25:31
  where people are carrying on,
• 25:33
  you know,
• 25:33
  intelligent conversations,
• 25:35
  sometimes not so intelligent,
• 25:36
  passionate conversations,
• 25:37
  I guess.
• 25:38
  Um,
• 25:39
  but if,
• 25:39
  if,
• 25:39
  if that's where,
• 25:40
  if that's what you're,
• 25:41
  you're,
• 25:41
  if that's what floats your boat,
• 25:43
  Predicted is your site.
• 25:44
  We're not in the sports betting
• 25:46
  piece of it.
• 25:46
  We don't do a lot of other things.
• 25:47
  We don't do weather,
• 25:48
  for instance,
• 25:48
  some of this other stuff.
• 25:49
  We focus on the political,
• 25:51
  on the political forecasting,
• 25:52
  and that's what we,
• 25:53
  we love,
• 25:54
  and,
• 25:54
  and that's what we think we're making our mark.
• 25:56
  And that's always been the most interesting part of prediction markets to me.
• 25:59
  It's always been politics and elections and how bills are gonna
• 26:02
  come out and how Supreme Court votes are gonna go.
• 26:04
  All that stuff is fascinating to me.
• 26:06
  And I know it's fascinating to the audience as well.
• 26:08
  Uh,
• 26:08
  John,
• 26:08
  let me take one more break.
• 26:09
  I wanna come back,
• 26:10
  uh,
• 26:10
  uh,
• 26:10
  on the other side.
• 26:11
  I mean,
• 26:12
  you know,
• 26:12
  political,
• 26:12
  uh,
• 26:13
  intrigue is always there,
• 26:14
  as you mentioned,
• 26:15
  you can't do politics without,
• 26:16
  uh,
• 26:17
  people,
• 26:17
  uh,
• 26:18
  being passionate and sometimes,
• 26:19
  um,
• 26:20
  you know,
• 26:20
  stupid.
• 26:21
  Uh,
• 26:21
  I know I'm in that boat.
• 26:22
  I know most people are.
• 26:23
  Uh,
• 26:24
  I wanna come back on the other side and we'll try to make ourselves
• 26:25
  a little bit smarter when it comes to prediction markets in just a second.
• 26:46
  Having a great conversation
• 26:46
  with John Aristotle Phillips.
• 26:48
  He's the co-founder and CEO of PredictI.
• 26:50
  Wanna let you know if you are
• 26:51
  a premium subscriber to Predicted Predictableshow.com,
• 26:54
  you can answer,
• 26:55
  uh,
• 26:55
  ask some questions,
• 26:56
  and John's gonna hang out for a quick,
• 26:58
  uh,
• 26:59
  Q&A
• 26:59
  after the show available to premium subscribers only.
• 27:02
  We'd love for you to join us,
• 27:03
  uh,
• 27:04
  there.
• 27:04
  Uh,
• 27:05
  John,
• 27:06
  over here at,
• 27:06
  uh,
• 27:07
  Predictable show,
• 27:08
  we prefer the term investing,
• 27:10
  uh,
• 27:10
  over,
• 27:11
  over betting.
• 27:12
  Um,
• 27:12
  because I think it's a good mindset change in a,
• 27:14
  in a way to,
• 27:15
  to look at this,
• 27:15
  uh,
• 27:16
  a little bit differently.
• 27:17
  Um,
• 27:17
  and so I wanna ask you a couple of questions,
• 27:20
  and these are sort of rapid-fire,
• 27:22
  uh,
• 27:23
  questions for you,
• 27:24
  and I believe I'm legally required to ask them because every prediction market
• 27:27
  interview I've ever heard from the mainstream media ask these three questions.
• 27:30
  So let me give them to you here.
• 27:31
  Number 1,
• 27:32
  prediction markets,
• 27:33
  are they gambling?
• 27:36
  No.
• 27:37
  No,
• 27:37
  and why?
• 27:40
  I mean,
• 27:40
  in the,
• 27:41
  in the,
• 27:41
  in the legal sense,
• 27:42
  they're not gambling.
• 27:43
  They're not regulated as gambling sites.
• 27:45
  Uh,
• 27:45
  there's a,
• 27:45
  you know,
• 27:45
  the courts are gonna determine to what extent these are permitted
• 27:49
  to be regulated
• 27:50
  by the feds rather than the states.
• 27:53
  Um,
• 27:53
  but,
• 27:53
  uh,
• 27:55
  you know,
• 27:55
  and there's risk,
• 27:56
  of course,
• 27:56
  on Wall Street,
• 27:57
  where I'm talking to you about,
• 27:58
  from today.
• 28:00
  You know,
• 28:00
  there is an element of,
• 28:01
  of risk-taking on any investment.
• 28:04
  But we see these as financial markets,
• 28:07
  uh,
• 28:07
  and they should be regulated as such.
• 28:09
  All right,
• 28:09
  uh,
• 28:09
  question number 2.
• 28:11
  Insider trading.
• 28:12
  Should it be legal and is it a problem?
• 28:16
  So you mentioned earlier,
• 28:17
  Stu,
• 28:18
  that we have a,
• 28:19
  a position limit.
• 28:20
  We had a position limit of $850.
• 28:23
  Uh,
• 28:23
  that was increased as part of the settlement with the
• 28:25
  CFTC as a result of our victory in court.
• 28:28
  It's now $3500 which is interestingly enough,
• 28:31
  The same,
• 28:32
  it's pegged
• 28:34
  to the
• 28:35
  contribution limit at the federal level to federal candidates,
• 28:38
  so you can only give up to $3500 and it's pegged to that,
• 28:41
  so it will go up if that goes up.
• 28:43
  Um,
• 28:43
  and with the theory being that you can't really buy a congressman for $3500
• 28:47
  so
• 28:48
  that's a,
• 28:49
  the Congress has already debated that,
• 28:50
  determined that.
• 28:52
  End of story.
• 28:54
  So,
• 28:54
  um,
• 28:55
  the position limit really deters
• 28:58
  the most egregious insider trading because at $3500 position limit,
• 29:04
  You know,
• 29:04
  it's,
• 29:05
  it's,
• 29:06
  and,
• 29:06
  and we combine that with rigorous identity verification,
• 29:09
  which we employ.
• 29:12
  When you want,
• 29:12
  when you go on to predict it.
• 29:14
  Um,
• 29:15
  these,
• 29:16
  these two things make it insane to try to engage in insider trading
• 29:20
  with information that is not public and that was illegally obtained.
• 29:24
  So,
• 29:25
  You know,
• 29:25
  if
• 29:26
  you're gonna get caught.
• 29:28
  And you're gonna get punished if you engage in insider trading,
• 29:31
  so,
• 29:31
  unpredicted.
• 29:32
  Um,
• 29:33
  now,
• 29:33
  if you're,
• 29:33
  if it's a site that's offshore,
• 29:35
  that there,
• 29:35
  there are no position limits and where
• 29:38
  there's no identity verification and there's no
• 29:41
  legal jurisdiction to protect consumers,
• 29:44
  that's another matter and I'm not gonna
• 29:45
  defend that.
• 29:47
  Right,
• 29:47
  and,
• 29:47
  uh,
• 29:48
  this we always try to remind people,
• 29:49
  uh,
• 29:49
  here,
• 29:50
  just every once in a while that if you're thinking about doing something like that,
• 29:54
  don't do it.
• 29:54
  It's stupid,
• 29:55
  you're going to get caught and it's not worth it.
• 29:57
  And as you point out,
• 29:58
  the prediction,
• 29:58
  those,
• 29:59
  those limits really do cap
• 30:00
  even the upside of attempting it.
• 30:02
  Um,
• 30:03
  last one for you on the quick,
• 30:04
  uh,
• 30:05
  legally required to ask a question list.
• 30:07
  Are prediction markets good for society and is there utility in them?
• 30:13
  Well,
• 30:13
  I mean,
• 30:14
  yes,
• 30:15
  it's good for society,
• 30:16
  and yes,
• 30:16
  there's great utility.
• 30:17
  If,
• 30:18
  if,
• 30:18
  if there were no utility in it.
• 30:20
  I mean,
• 30:21
  I guess entertainment is,
• 30:22
  is
• 30:23
  a form of a utility.
• 30:24
  Price discovery though,
• 30:26
  which is how people normally,
• 30:27
  what people normally associate with
• 30:29
  well-functioning markets.
• 30:31
  Uh,
• 30:32
  price discovery is,
• 30:33
  is a,
• 30:34
  is a,
• 30:35
  Core
• 30:37
  benefit of these prediction markets and any market,
• 30:40
  knowing what the odds are,
• 30:42
  uh,
• 30:42
  what the price of a particular commodity should be,
• 30:45
  that's
• 30:46
  essential in a,
• 30:47
  in a functioning,
• 30:48
  in a functioning market,
• 30:49
  which I,
• 30:49
  I see as being tied to democracy,
• 30:52
  which gets to the second part,
• 30:53
  actually is the first part of your question,
• 30:54
  which is,
• 30:55
  are these good for society?
• 30:57
  I think they're great for society.
• 30:58
  Anything that engages.
• 31:00
  Individuals.
• 31:01
  First of all,
• 31:02
  the big,
• 31:03
  you know,
• 31:03
  the,
• 31:03
  anything that engages individuals in the democratic
• 31:06
  process is generally a good thing,
• 31:08
  uh,
• 31:08
  and prediction markets
• 31:10
  are an engagement tool on steroids,
• 31:13
  as we've talked about.
• 31:14
  They really do get you engaged in consuming more information
• 31:17
  and,
• 31:18
  and deciphering that information you're consuming,
• 31:20
  you're consuming,
• 31:22
  separating.
• 31:24
  The,
• 31:24
  the BS
• 31:26
  that's out there in a lot of media outlets
• 31:28
  from the facts,
• 31:29
  and if,
• 31:29
  cause if you're betting.
• 31:31
  If you're investing,
• 31:33
  as you say,
• 31:34
  Based on
• 31:36
  fake news,
• 31:38
  based on BS that you're consuming,
• 31:40
  you're gonna lose your money,
• 31:41
  Stu.
• 31:42
  And so,
• 31:43
  that's the difference between,
• 31:45
  I mean,
• 31:46
  to my way of thinking,
• 31:47
  these prediction markets are extraordinarily valuable for those reasons.
• 31:50
  And they also,
• 31:51
  the biggest consumers,
• 31:52
  the biggest beneficiaries of these prediction markets are not the traders
• 31:55
  themselves who will be making some money or losing some money.
• 31:58
  The biggest beneficiaries are the people who come to predict it
• 32:02
  because they want to see the odds.
• 32:03
  That includes news organizations,
• 32:05
  voters,
• 32:06
  citizens,
• 32:07
  people concerned about the future of America.
• 32:10
  You go to predict it because you want to know
• 32:11
  what the odds of something are that's gonna happen.
• 32:13
  It's political.
• 32:14
  Yeah,
• 32:14
  the,
• 32:15
  the number I hear get thrown around,
• 32:16
  John,
• 32:16
  is something like 3/4,
• 32:18
  uh,
• 32:18
  or more of the people who actually visit
• 32:20
  prediction market sites go to it for the data.
• 32:23
  Like they're not trading.
• 32:24
  They're not,
• 32:24
  they're not even thinking about trading.
• 32:26
  They just wanna know,
• 32:26
  hey,
• 32:27
  what does my world look like?
• 32:28
  No,
• 32:29
  I think your numbers probably even conservative.
• 32:30
  I think,
• 32:31
  I think
• 32:31
  the vast majority.
• 32:33
  Um,
• 32:35
  people who are,
• 32:35
  who are come to visit the site repeatedly and,
• 32:38
  and,
• 32:38
  and,
• 32:38
  and,
• 32:39
  and sit on the site,
• 32:41
  uh,
• 32:41
  watching the odds fluctuate.
• 32:42
  So,
• 32:42
  when you have a debate or an election night,
• 32:45
  it's wild.
• 32:47
  Yeah,
• 32:47
  it,
• 32:48
  it really is.
• 32:48
  Uh,
• 32:49
  I think another thing too,
• 32:49
  uh,
• 32:50
  when,
• 32:50
  when it comes to,
• 32:51
  uh,
• 32:51
  the positives of prediction markets,
• 32:52
  I,
• 32:52
  I,
• 32:53
  I think it helps people
• 32:55
  think a little bit more pro
• 32:56
  probabilistically,
• 32:57
  but I can never say that word,
• 32:58
  but you know,
• 32:59
  in proba probabilities,
• 33:00
  uh,
• 33:01
  when you think of it that way,
• 33:02
  because I remember going back to,
• 33:03
  I think it was 2016,
• 33:05
  uh,
• 33:06
  Nate Silver was doing his election model,
• 33:07
  and he had,
• 33:08
  I think,
• 33:08
  Trump with like a 28.6% chance to win or something like that,
• 33:12
  and a lot of other places had it at,
• 33:14
  you know,
• 33:14
  5% or 4%.
• 33:16
  Uh,
• 33:16
  and,
• 33:16
  you know,
• 33:17
  much lower.
• 33:18
  And I,
• 33:18
  he took kind of like a beating in the press because he quote unquote got it wrong,
• 33:22
  but I,
• 33:22
  I was actually a pretty big defender of him in that because
• 33:25
  he was the most optimistic for Trump,
• 33:28
  uh,
• 33:28
  out of all of the prediction models that I was looking at at,
• 33:31
  at that time,
• 33:32
  or election models.
• 33:33
  And,
• 33:34
  you know,
• 33:34
  it gave you a sense as to like where,
• 33:36
  I,
• 33:36
  cause I remember buying,
• 33:37
  I think,
• 33:38
  uh,
• 33:38
  you know,
• 33:38
  in 2016.
• 33:40
  Getting Trump at 8 and 9% on election night,
• 33:44
  not because I honestly thought Trump was gonna win cause I didn't,
• 33:48
  because I just thought there was value there,
• 33:49
  right?
• 33:49
  There,
• 33:50
  there was,
• 33:50
  you have,
• 33:50
  if you start thinking in terms of probability,
• 33:53
  you understand the world so much more clearly.
• 33:56
  Like you,
• 33:57
  you are dead on with that.
• 33:58
  Absolutely right.
• 34:00
  Yeah,
• 34:01
  I mean,
• 34:01
  you can,
• 34:02
  you can,
• 34:03
  when you make,
• 34:03
  when you make a forecast prediction on predicted.
• 34:07
  You can,
• 34:08
  you know,
• 34:08
  you can love.
• 34:11
  Tallarico
• 34:13
  You know,
• 34:13
  at 45 cents,
• 34:15
  which is where he's about where he's trading right now,
• 34:17
  45% odds.
• 34:18
  You can love him at 45% and hate him at 55%.
• 34:22
  Right?
• 34:22
  You can dump your shares of Tallarico,
• 34:25
  if you think he's overpriced,
• 34:26
  or if you think he's underpriced relative to what's likely to happen,
• 34:29
  you can,
• 34:29
  you can,
• 34:31
  you can bottom fish and load up on Tallarico.
• 34:34
  And the same is true of all these races.
• 34:36
  You,
• 34:36
  you know,
• 34:36
  you're,
• 34:36
  you're,
• 34:37
  you're,
• 34:37
  you are,
• 34:38
  you are trying to weigh the odds
• 34:41
  with your with,
• 34:42
  with the price that you're paying for these shares,
• 34:44
  from 1 penny to $1.
• 34:46
  Uh,
• 34:46
  and so you're trying to weigh the odds,
• 34:48
  and you're,
• 34:48
  and you're doing that against,
• 34:50
  Thousands or tens of thousands of other people are doing the same thing.
• 34:53
  It's great.
• 34:54
  Yeah,
• 34:54
  it's,
• 34:55
  it's it's a lot of fun,
• 34:55
  as we said,
• 34:56
  you know,
• 34:57
  it's great.
• 34:57
  If you think you,
• 34:58
  if you think somebody's undervalued,
• 35:00
  get in there and pick those up and then you sell those babies when they go up.
• 35:04
  Yeah,
• 35:04
  it,
• 35:04
  it really is so much fun too.
• 35:05
  I mean,
• 35:06
  I,
• 35:06
  we,
• 35:06
  we had,
• 35:06
  we were doing live streaming of election results in Michigan the other night.
• 35:10
  It was just like crazy things happening and you're just
• 35:12
  watching these markets go up and down and it's,
• 35:14
  it's just,
• 35:15
  it's just a blast.
• 35:15
  I'm glad you brought up Texas though.
• 35:16
  I'm,
• 35:17
  I'm in Texas doing the show here.
• 35:18
  This is a really interesting market because,
• 35:21
  you know,
• 35:21
  Texas,
• 35:22
  you feel like it's a red state.
• 35:24
  Basically,
• 35:25
  you know,
• 35:25
  you can kind of assume that the Republican is going to win,
• 35:28
  at least you've been able to do that for,
• 35:30
  for a very long time here.
• 35:31
  Uh,
• 35:32
  but this selection,
• 35:33
  the polling is showing Tallarico with a lead.
• 35:35
  Do we have the predicted market,
• 35:36
  of,
• 35:36
  of,
• 35:37
  of,
• 35:37
  uh,
• 35:37
  of this particular race
• 35:39
  that we could bring up Tallarico versus Paxton?
• 35:41
  This is what it looks like,
• 35:42
  uh,
• 35:42
  right now,
• 35:43
  and you see the movement there,
• 35:45
  um,
• 35:45
  you know,
• 35:46
  looking at that,
• 35:46
  it,
• 35:47
  it is a slight advantage,
• 35:48
  uh,
• 35:48
  for,
• 35:49
  uh,
• 35:49
  Paxton,
• 35:50
  uh,
• 35:50
  but,
• 35:50
  you know,
• 35:51
  it is,
• 35:51
  it's also,
• 35:52
  we're looking at a situation where
• 35:54
  Tallarico has a real,
• 35:55
  uh,
• 35:55
  um,
• 35:55
  uh,
• 35:56
  a real,
• 35:56
  a real chance here.
• 35:57
  How,
• 35:57
  how do you see this market overall?
• 35:59
  Well,
• 35:59
  it's,
• 36:00
  you know,
• 36:00
  it's,
• 36:00
  it's,
• 36:00
  it's been,
• 36:01
  so you,
• 36:01
  you look at it and uh
• 36:04
  uh Paxton's down,
• 36:06
  you know,
• 36:06
  2 cents.
• 36:06
  He was,
• 36:07
  he's at 55 cents right now.
• 36:09
  Um,
• 36:10
  you know,
• 36:10
  it's,
• 36:10
  it's 45% of,
• 36:12
  it's what we talked about earlier,
• 36:13
  right?
• 36:13
  45% of the time.
• 36:15
  Uh
• 36:17
  The,
• 36:17
  the Democrat's gonna win here.
• 36:19
  Uh,
• 36:19
  but again,
• 36:20
  this is gonna change,
• 36:21
  so,
• 36:21
  you know,
• 36:22
  if you think that,
• 36:23
  that Paxton is,
• 36:24
  is,
• 36:24
  you may think Paxton's undervalued.
• 36:26
  Uh,
• 36:26
  in which case you should buy it even though he's running it,
• 36:28
  you know,
• 36:29
  over,
• 36:29
  he's running about 55 cents.
• 36:31
  Um,
• 36:31
  and the same is true with,
• 36:32
  with,
• 36:33
  uh,
• 36:33
  the Tallarico.
• 36:34
  But the,
• 36:34
  the beauty is you don't have to stay in the market
• 36:38
  until the election.
• 36:38
  You can get in and get out,
• 36:40
  get in and get out.
• 36:40
  You probably do a lot of that.
• 36:42
  And it's,
• 36:42
  uh,
• 36:43
  that,
• 36:43
  that really being nimble and looking at changes and looking and consuming news,
• 36:47
  polling results,
• 36:48
  and fundraising stuff.
• 36:50
  You know,
• 36:50
  the,
• 36:50
  the,
• 36:51
  the,
• 36:51
  the fundraising is pretty lopsided in this race
• 36:54
  favoring the Democrat,
• 36:55
  but,
• 36:56
  you know,
• 36:56
  fundraising is not the only factor,
• 36:58
  and the market is saying he's,
• 37:00
  you know,
• 37:00
  he's,
• 37:00
  he's 45 cents.
• 37:01
  Yeah,
• 37:02
  I tend to be.
• 37:04
  I built a position,
• 37:05
  I built a position on Paxton,
• 37:06
  uh,
• 37:07
  you know,
• 37:07
  being a person who's in Texas,
• 37:09
  you know,
• 37:09
  Paxton from the outside is,
• 37:11
  he's kind of a,
• 37:11
  uh,
• 37:12
  he's got some scandals,
• 37:13
  he's had some problems,
• 37:15
  uh,
• 37:15
  they've
• 37:16
  already voted for him.
• 37:16
  A Couple of times statewide
• 37:18
  because this is a Democratic leaning
• 37:20
  year
• 37:22
  and they're throwing so much money into this race,
• 37:24
  I think there's a lot of optimism,
• 37:25
  but there was a,
• 37:27
  and I,
• 37:27
  this is what I've taken advantage of over the years,
• 37:29
  John,
• 37:30
  is
• 37:30
  looking at a,
• 37:31
  a vicious primary battle
• 37:34
  where you have that Paxton Cornyn situation.
• 37:37
  Those Cornyn people are,
• 37:38
  are crushed.
• 37:39
  They're angry about it,
• 37:40
  they don't like it.
• 37:41
  They're,
• 37:42
  they don't like Paxton right now.
• 37:44
  And,
• 37:44
  and right now,
• 37:45
  who knows what they're saying to the pollsters
• 37:47
  that's out of anger or what they're really gonna do
• 37:49
  in,
• 37:50
  in November.
• 37:51
  And I think a lot of times those people who
• 37:52
  are Republican voters who really liked Cornyn and don't like Paxton
• 37:57
  may come down to that November time and they think to themselves,
• 38:00
  wait a minute,
• 38:00
  am I really gonna give up because of what I'm angry about,
• 38:03
  uh,
• 38:03
  uh,
• 38:03
  you know,
• 38:04
  Democratic Republican control of the Senate,
• 38:06
  which could be on the line here.
• 38:08
  I think enough of them come back that it gets over the line,
• 38:10
  but it is gonna be close.
• 38:12
  I do think he's undervalued at 55%.
• 38:13
  I think it's more like a 75%
• 38:16
  chance he wins this race.
• 38:17
  At least that's how I'm thinking about it.
• 38:18
  Am I crazy?
• 38:20
  I don't,
• 38:21
  I don't think you're crazy.
• 38:22
  You're the oracle.
• 38:24
  So,
• 38:24
  uh,
• 38:25
  I think.
• 38:26
  Uh,
• 38:26
  I,
• 38:27
  I,
• 38:27
  uh,
• 38:28
  uh,
• 38:28
  I don't know,
• 38:29
  for one thing,
• 38:30
  and I'm not in Texas,
• 38:31
  so you don't have to be in Texas to participate in this market.
• 38:35
  Um,
• 38:36
  you know,
• 38:36
  I,
• 38:36
  I,
• 38:36
  uh,
• 38:37
  I,
• 38:37
  I look at the main market,
• 38:38
  which is an interesting one also.
• 38:41
  Um,
• 38:41
  you know,
• 38:41
  you look at Collins,
• 38:42
  is at 40.
• 38:44
  Um,
• 38:45
  and her opponent,
• 38:46
  is it,
• 38:47
  is it 60?
• 38:48
  Uh,
• 38:49
  you know,
• 38:49
  is that,
• 38:50
  is that,
• 38:50
  is that,
• 38:51
  uh,
• 38:51
  really
• 38:52
  what the odds are right now?
• 38:53
  It's,
• 38:53
  it's fascinating,
• 38:54
  right?
• 38:55
  Because Collins is traditionally
• 38:58
  You know,
• 38:58
  come from behind and won her elections,
• 39:00
  but boy.
• 39:02
  If you think,
• 39:03
  if you think Collins is gonna do it again,
• 39:04
  you could snap up Collins for 40 cents.
• 39:07
  Yeah,
• 39:07
  you know,
• 39:08
  that's an interesting one as well,
• 39:09
  because I'll pay $1 if she wins.
• 39:11
  Yeah,
• 39:12
  I mean,
• 39:12
  the,
• 39:12
  the latt with obviously the Plattner thing that happened,
• 39:14
  the markets seemed to see,
• 39:16
  see him dropping out
• 39:17
  as a real positive,
• 39:19
  uh,
• 39:19
  for the Democrats.
• 39:20
  You're bringing in somebody new,
• 39:22
  and,
• 39:22
  and I,
• 39:23
  I was,
• 39:23
  I had,
• 39:23
  you know,
• 39:24
  I don't have a huge position on this,
• 39:25
  John,
• 39:25
  but I,
• 39:26
  I picked up shares of Susan Collins at like 34.
• 39:29
  It's like she's
• 39:30
  beaten back a lot of tough challenges.
• 39:32
  I,
• 39:32
  I don't,
• 39:32
  you know,
• 39:33
  politically,
• 39:34
  like,
• 39:34
  you know,
• 39:34
  she's not my favorite,
• 39:35
  uh,
• 39:35
  senator in the universe,
• 39:36
  but like she's,
• 39:37
  for,
• 39:38
  for Maine,
• 39:38
  she's been a pretty good fit.
• 39:39
  She's gotten over a lot of hard hurdles and a lot of obstacles over the years.
• 39:43
  33,
• 39:44
  34% to me seems way too low.
• 39:47
  45%,
• 39:48
  you know,
• 39:49
  seems maybe about right.
• 39:50
  I still think maybe the underdog in a bluish type of year.
• 39:53
  Uh,
• 39:54
  but that's,
• 39:54
  that's kind of how I'm,
• 39:55
  I'm looking at this.
• 39:56
  I'm now I'm just telling you're selling,
• 39:57
  you're,
• 39:58
  you're selling Collins at 45.
• 40:00
  I don't think I will sell her at 45,
• 40:03
  but I think that's the right price.
• 40:05
  Like,
• 40:05
  I think,
• 40:06
  I think if this was a,
• 40:07
  uh,
• 40:08
  Um,
• 40:08
  an appropriately priced market.
• 40:11
  Sometimes,
• 40:11
  you know,
• 40:12
  you mentioned before,
• 40:13
  like these things aren't perfect.
• 40:14
  Uh,
• 40:14
  they're,
• 40:15
  they're,
• 40:15
  they're predictions of the future,
• 40:17
  but I'm glad they're not perfect because if they were perfect,
• 40:19
  I couldn't make any money.
• 40:20
  I want the,
• 40:21
  I,
• 40:21
  I look for those inefficiencies.
• 40:24
  I think there's a little bit of room there.
• 40:25
  I think there's value on Collins,
• 40:26
  maybe all the way up to,
• 40:27
  to 50.
• 40:28
  Um,
• 40:29
  and so I'm gonna hold that position and,
• 40:31
  and watch the twists and turns of this race because I don't think they came up with a,
• 40:34
  a,
• 40:35
  a super strong challenger either.
• 40:36
  I don't think Jackson's a guy
• 40:38
  who's gonna blow people away.
• 40:40
  At least that's how,
• 40:41
  uh,
• 40:41
  uh,
• 40:41
  how I'm looking at it,
• 40:42
  and I know you have a million voices unpredicted who are going back and forth on this,
• 40:46
  and so I'm out of line with the market a little bit,
• 40:48
  but I,
• 40:48
  I do think there is value in,
• 40:50
  in Collins where she is right now.
• 40:52
  Yeah,
• 40:53
  it'll be fascinating to see if one of them starts to pull away,
• 40:55
  right?
• 40:56
  It's,
• 40:56
  it's gonna be,
• 40:57
  it's,
• 40:57
  it's gonna be very interesting to watch.
• 40:59
  And then you got balance of power in Congress after the 2006,
• 41:03
  2020206 election.
• 41:04
  Yeah,
• 41:04
  we can pull this.
• 41:04
  How do you call that?
• 41:05
  Yeah,
• 41:06
  uh,
• 41:06
  I have a,
• 41:07
  a pretty large position on Democrats to win the House.
• 41:10
  Uh,
• 41:10
  I think,
• 41:11
  you know,
• 41:11
  I was buying that in the
• 41:13
  high 19950s and low 191960s.
• 41:15
  Um,
• 41:16
  it's now up into the,
• 41:17
  what are we with the mid.
• 41:18
  Uh,
• 41:18
  which this is balance of Congress.
• 41:20
  Oh,
• 41:20
  this is,
• 41:20
  uh,
• 41:20
  this is the one we have up right now from predicted
• 41:23
  is,
• 41:23
  uh,
• 41:23
  the Democratic House and Senate,
• 41:25
  the,
• 41:25
  the splits,
• 41:26
  which one of their four options,
• 41:27
  yeah.
• 41:27
  Um,
• 41:28
  I,
• 41:28
  uh,
• 41:30
  bought the house,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:31
  you know,
• 41:32
  back in the high 50s,
• 41:33
  low 60s,
• 41:34
  just really because of history,
• 41:36
  you know,
• 41:36
  there's just,
• 41:36
  it's just very difficult,
• 41:37
  even if everything's going swimmingly,
• 41:39
  uh,
• 41:39
  to win in these years.
• 41:41
  Uh,
• 41:41
  but now it's up to mid 80s is where it's been sitting for a while,
• 41:45
  which I think is
• 41:47
  about right.
• 41:47
  You know,
• 41:48
  I,
• 41:48
  I don't think.
• 41:48
  It's a sure thing they're going to win.
• 41:50
  Maybe it's even a little higher for them to win the House.
• 41:52
  The Senate,
• 41:53
  I feel like,
• 41:53
  is a little pessimistic
• 41:55
  for Republicans in the 50/50 type of range.
• 41:59
  Might be a little bit above that right now.
• 42:01
  I don't know if we have the Senate individually,
• 42:02
  we could bring up.
• 42:02
  If not,
• 42:03
  it's,
• 42:04
  I don't know if the last time you saw it,
• 42:04
  John,
• 42:05
  was it 53,
• 42:06
  54
• 42:07
  for Republicans to win in that vicinity.
• 42:09
  I,
• 42:09
  I,
• 42:10
  I don't know,
• 42:10
  I,
• 42:11
  just because of this,
• 42:12
  what's fascinating about the Senate is like you look at the structure of it,
• 42:15
  and it's,
• 42:16
  it's not a,
• 42:17
  it's not like the House where it's uh vibes can take over for a couple of years.
• 42:20
  A lot of these races are locked in,
• 42:22
  and when you look at what's available,
• 42:23
  it would really have to be kind of catastrophic circumstances where
• 42:26
  you're losing Texas and Ohio and things like this for Republicans.
• 42:30
  I tend to think that I'm a little more optimistic,
• 42:33
  again,
• 42:33
  maybe into the 70 to 72 type of range is where I feel like the market should be.
• 42:39
  Uh,
• 42:40
  but it's,
• 42:40
  I've seen it in the 50s and it,
• 42:42
  it,
• 42:42
  I don't have a,
• 42:43
  I have a bigger position on the Democrats in the
• 42:45
  House than I do the Republicans in the Senate,
• 42:46
  but that's kind of where I think that lands.
• 42:48
  Does that,
• 42:48
  what do you think of that?
• 42:49
  And what do you,
• 42:49
  and what are you thinking in terms of,
• 42:51
  um,
• 42:52
  Democratic House,
• 42:53
  Republican Senate?
• 42:54
  What's the right price for that?
• 42:56
  Uh,
• 42:56
  do we have that 40 cents?
• 42:57
  Let me,
• 42:58
  let me see that chart one more time.
• 42:59
  What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election?
• 43:02
  So Democratic House,
• 43:03
  Republican Senate.
• 43:04
  My standard play on this,
• 43:06
  on this market,
• 43:06
  honestly,
• 43:07
  uh,
• 43:08
  John,
• 43:08
  is to,
• 43:09
  uh,
• 43:09
  to go
• 43:10
  no
• 43:11
  on Republican House Democratic Senate,
• 43:14
  which is usually pretty low.
• 43:16
  Uh,
• 43:16
  I don't know,
• 43:16
  I don't think we have it checked on this particular market,
• 43:18
  but,
• 43:19
  uh,
• 43:19
  it's gonna be low at this point.
• 43:20
  I,
• 43:21
  I bought it,
• 43:21
  I've been buying that for a while,
• 43:22
  yeah,
• 43:23
  it's really low right now,
• 43:24
  it's almost to zero because there's just no way that one can happen.
• 43:27
  Like there's no way.
• 43:29
  If it's a good enough year for Republican or for Democrats,
• 43:32
  uh,
• 43:33
  to win the Senate,
• 43:33
  there's no way they don't also win the House.
• 43:36
  So I start off there and I start narrowing,
• 43:38
  uh,
• 43:38
  when it comes to these combinations,
• 43:40
  that's the way I think about it as a traitor.
• 43:42
  I,
• 43:42
  I,
• 43:42
  I,
• 43:42
  I,
• 43:42
  I wanna
• 43:43
  eliminate,
• 43:44
  we have a,
• 43:45
  uh,
• 43:45
  in this predictable constitution I mentioned earlier,
• 43:47
  our Third Amendment to the predictable Constitution is,
• 43:49
  it's easier to predict what will not happen
• 43:52
  than what will happen.
• 43:53
  And so when I'm not sure
• 43:55
  in a market,
• 43:55
  that's what I do.
• 43:56
  I try to eliminate those externalities.
• 43:59
  Interesting.
• 44:00
  Well,
• 44:00
  that's good.
• 44:01
  That's good.
• 44:02
  I'm gonna follow what you're,
• 44:03
  I'm gonna follow your predictions.
• 44:05
  Well,
• 44:06
  and now this is like a therapy session.
• 44:07
  Now I'm just running my positions by you,
• 44:08
  uh,
• 44:09
  so I don't mean to take up all your time with this,
• 44:10
  but this has been fascinating conversation.
• 44:12
  Um,
• 44:13
  do you have a couple more minutes to hang out with our,
• 44:15
  uh,
• 44:15
  premium subscribers and answer a few questions?
• 44:17
  I know they got a bunch of them.
• 44:18
  I have a million.
• 44:19
  Moore,
• 44:19
  I could talk to you all day about this,
• 44:20
  John,
• 44:20
  but this has been a fantastic,
• 44:22
  uh,
• 44:23
  uh,
• 44:23
  conversation,
• 44:23
  and I really appreciate you taking the time.
• 44:25
  We're talking to John Aristotle Phillips,
• 44:27
  the co-founder and CEO of PredictI.
• 44:29
  It's a great place to go and get political information.
• 44:31
  It is more focused on politics,
• 44:32
  which of course,
• 44:33
  is,
• 44:33
  is my passion when it comes to prediction markets.
• 44:35
  I like some of the other stuff too.
• 44:36
  I like to dabble here and there,
• 44:37
  but
• 44:38
  it's always been politics for me and,
• 44:39
  and Predicted it's been a,
• 44:40
  a huge part of,
• 44:41
  uh,
• 44:42
  of my,
• 44:42
  uh,
• 44:43
  you know,
• 44:43
  my life in this world.
• 44:44
  It's helped me,
• 44:45
  uh,
• 44:45
  you know,
• 44:46
  start the show back,
• 44:46
  uh,
• 44:47
  when we did.
• 44:48
  And,
• 44:48
  uh,
• 44:48
  frankly,
• 44:49
  uh,
• 44:49
  it's been a nice,
• 44:49
  uh,
• 44:50
  we've had a nice,
• 44:51
  gone on a few vacations,
• 44:52
  uh,
• 44:52
  thanks to uh the other traders unpredicted as well.
• 44:55
  Uh,
• 44:55
  so we really appreciate you putting all this together and dealing with the
• 44:58
  government and all the stuff you've had to do over the years,
• 45:00
  John.
• 45:00
  Thanks so much.
• 45:02
  Thank you for having me on.
• 45:03
  I appreciate it.
• 45:03
  All right,
• 45:04
  we're gonna be back,
• 45:04
  uh,
• 45:05
  uh,
• 45:06
  tomorrow.
• 45:06
  I might do some live streaming tonight,
• 45:07
  uh,
• 45:08
  on the Tennessee,
• 45:09
  uh,
• 45:09
  primary because that's another one.
• 45:12
  Governor race is,
• 45:13
  is really turning out to be a little bit more interesting than I thought it would be.
• 45:16
  So we'll look at that,
• 45:17
  we'll walk through those.
• 45:18
  Again,
• 45:18
  we try to watch those results come out live as they happen
• 45:22
  and look for those positions to get into as the results,
• 45:25
  uh,
• 45:25
  kind of trickle out.
• 45:26
  There are opportunities,
• 45:27
  as we found
• 45:28
  on Tuesday with the,
• 45:29
  uh,
• 45:29
  Haley,
• 45:30
  Hail Mary,
• 45:30
  uh,
• 45:30
  that we did very,
• 45:31
  very well on.
• 45:32
  So join us,
• 45:33
  uh,
• 45:33
  tonight for a little bit of that.
• 45:34
  And uh we will also be back
• 45:36
  uh next week.
• 45:37
  There's a whole another big slate of uh pre elections as well.
• 45:40
  So if you go to predictableShow.com,
• 45:41
  not only can you get the Q&A
• 45:43
  with John Aristotle Phillips,
• 45:44
  but you also can get all of my positions.
• 45:46
  We're doing a rollout of those,
• 45:47
  sort of an album release party tomorrow where you'll get all my predictions and
• 45:51
  see how terrible some of them are.
• 45:53
  I think they're mostly good,
• 45:54
  but you can make fun of me all you want.
• 45:55
  Uh,
• 45:55
  so go to predictableShow.com and become a premium member.
• 45:58
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 45:59
  We will see you next time.