Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 231: Where Will the Cattle Market Go as We Head Into 2026? with Samantha Cozza-Wright

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231: Where Will the Cattle Market Go as We Head Into 2026? with Samantha Cozza-Wright · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  On today's episode, we are breaking down the cattle market
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  with Samantha Koza, right? She is breaking down everything
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  that we have seen or rather maybe not seen over the past
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  week in the cattle markets. And we really lean on what we
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  can anticipate as we go into the new year.
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  Some trends that we have discussed over the past few
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  months that we are potentially going to be seeing as we go into
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  2026, Some things we hope to leave behind and just some other
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  predictions as we finish out the year and go into spring.
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  Before we hop into today's episode, if you're watching on
• 0:30
  YouTube, make sure that you hit that subscribe button and you
• 0:33
  also like this episode. If you're watching on any of our
• 0:35
  other podcast platforms, make sure you hit that follow button
• 0:38
  on whatever platform that may be and go rate and review this
• 0:41
  podcast as well. Without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and hear from Samantha. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
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  Podcast, your go to source. For the latest.
• 0:54
  Livestock markets, industry insights and the updates shaping
• 0:57
  agriculture today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
• 1:00
  passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Samantha, welcome back to the
• 1:15
  podcast. Happy Monday.
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  How was your Christmas? How was the family?
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  Christmas is good. Why?
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  It's growing like a weed already almost 2 weeks old now.
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  So yeah, everything's going good.
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  Absolutely. That's so great to hear.
• 1:30
  And I know like those early baby stages, it's I have don't have
• 1:34
  any kids of my own, but I have a ton of friends that do.
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  And I swear they go from like a newborn to six months old and
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  having a personality in the blink of an eye.
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  And yeah, so I get it. It's the growing like a weed.
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  And OK, you can stop now. You can, you can calm down.
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  You don't need to be growing like this or getting this old
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  quite yet. But I love it.
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  I don't want to wish the newborn stage away, but I would like his
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  sleep cycle to progress where I can get more than two hours of
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  sleep at a time. Yes, absolutely.
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  No more cluster feeding and consistent sleep would be
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  amazing for everyone, I'm sure, especially since you are still
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  working, doing a million other things all at once at the same
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  time. So on that note, what's going on
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  with the markets? Give us an update on kind of
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  what we saw last week. Not a lot of huge movement last
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  week. I mean that was kind of expected
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  with the holiday and we had a little bit of expected
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  volatility earlier in the week. Last week again with light
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  holiday trading, we ended up closing higher on on live cattle
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  and feeder cattle on all your front months and your back
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  months there. But we were a dollar higher
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  Tuesday to Wednesday on negotiated fed cattle trade at
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  2:30. Again, slaughter volumes, cash
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  trade on fats last week, very light expected, but hopefully we
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  can start to pick that up in the next few weeks.
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  I'm looking into 2026. We kind of touched on this a
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  little bit last week. You know, where are we going to
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  be come first of the year? That's the big question.
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  I think we should see an announcement of a port by port
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  reopening soon of that Mexico border.
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  I think that's going to be one of the biggest things going into
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  the first of the year. I don't know that it'll have
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  much an effect on futures. If it does, you know, we might
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  see a slight retrace, but I'm not expecting anything crazy
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  long term there for a while. The border, you know, it was the
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  elephant in the room. The board reacted to every
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  suspicion. We've had a few, you know,
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  things come up regarding the Mexico border lately and the
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  board hasn't really reacted. And we've cried wolf so many
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  times about opening this border. I think, you know, a lot of
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  people want to get it done and over with and traders have
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  really already kind of factored it in.
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  You know, last week I mentioned where's consumer demand headed
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  again, we're we're kind of resorted back to that reality.
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  We saw that crash in seasonal demand literally the day
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  following Christmas on those primal cuts.
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  I see that trend continuing into the first year.
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  January, you know, we could potentially see a bottom of
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  those retail prices, specifically on those higher end
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  cuts that need that seasonal push.
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  But February we might see a slight upswing from the Super
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  Bowl. You know, it's going to be short
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  lived, but it gives people a chance to dump some inventory.
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  Realistically though, probably before it'll be March, before we
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  see a huge rebuild and demand. And looking at that as we shift
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  from primal cuts to ground beef and things of that nature, I
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  start getting a little concerned with these Brazilian tariffs
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  being lifted. Beef imports are more than
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  likely going to capture a huge chunk of domestic demand.
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  Big picture, if we are drastically outsourcing for
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  beef, that's not a big supporter of herd expansion and you know,
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  those cheap imports put a lot of leverage and the hands of the
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  Packer and prices. So I definitely don't think
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  we've seen the tightest supplies of cattle that this cycle has to
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  offer. You know, I would like to think
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  that holds a lot of stock in the markets, especially through
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  spring. Best case scenario, we do
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  continue in an upward trend. Buyers are at a little bit of a
• 5:00
  crossroad to spend this kind of money on cattle.
• 5:02
  Some might be getting, you know, the red light from their banker.
• 5:05
  That's another advantage of livestock risk protection.
• 5:08
  Loan officers grin heavily on having protection in place on
• 5:12
  your cattle, especially at these prices.
• 5:15
  Worst case scenario, when we go higher, it resorted back to that
• 5:19
  premium cost. You take advantage of the higher
• 5:21
  market, but at the end of the day, I always, I always stress
• 5:24
  to producers, know your breakevens, know your risk
• 5:27
  tolerance. If you know that your your next
• 5:30
  biggest asset is intuition. But at this level in the game,
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  Cattle. Absolutely.
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  You make some really good points about beef imports.
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  As we go into the new year and a concern like we talked last
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  week, we're seeing an uptrend of heifer retention coming in.
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  The numbers are coming in. We are starting to actually see
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  it come to fruition. This needs to be a market and a
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  just world inside of the cattle industry that helps stabilize
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  that. That helps take.
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  That positive note and use it as a catalyst as we go forward into
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  the new year to truly use it as something that can push our
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  industry forward and help with that herd rebuild and there's
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  the line that we. Toe right of.
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  We have. Such a high.
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  Quality product that we're not grinding every single piece of
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  an animal that we're sending to slaughter that's domestically
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  grown here in the United States. So we do need some supplement
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  coming in from outside countries that can provide that lean beef
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  support. But at the same time, when are
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  we toting that line of we're relying on them too much and is
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  it going to be harder to turn around once we have steered the
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  ship? Too far.
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  To the side of leaning on that non domestic product,
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  absolutely. And that's where transparency
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  plays such a huge, huge role in that as well.
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  I mean, again, just going back to mandatory country of origin
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  labeling, it's huge. We have to import to an extent,
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  obviously, like you said, for those lean trims and ground beef
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  and things like that, but label it as such.
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  If it's not US product, we don't label it as US product that it's
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  so huge. It goes back to why did we ever
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  get rid of mandatory country of origin labeling in the 1st place
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  and rebuilding that transparency?
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  Because right now, like I said, the leverage in the beef
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  industry and and price fixing and all the things that we've
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  looked at and talked about, there's so little transparency
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  that there's so much of that going on that is out of our
• 8:20
  control. Yeah, absolutely.
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  And you made some really good points.
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  Just as we go into the new year, what it's going to continue to
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  look like in this cattle market and.
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  In the volatility? That we have seen this last
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  year, I really hope that is something that we can kind of
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  leave behind in 2025 and not take with us into 2026 because
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  boy oh boy has it been a roller coaster this year.
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  And you just made some really great points about how important
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  it is for producers to know their break even, know their
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  risk tolerance and. What tools?
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  They need to utilize to help them achieve the business
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  structure and the business goals that they have for this new
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  year. A lot of people retained Heffers
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  and I really, really hope that as we go into spring that we're
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  able to see just a cattle market and also weather patterns that
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  are able to support all of those decisions that were made at the
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  end of this last year and that we can leave this roller coaster
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  behind. I don't need any like gut up to
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  my throat roller coasters. We could have just like some
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  nice little, little like merry go round.
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  Yeah, exactly. Like, I'll get out of merry go
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  Round. I don't need to go get on the
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  Tunnel of Death or whatever the heck those roller coasters are
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  called. These.
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  Days. Absolutely, Yeah.
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  I mean, the board is all traded at such low volumes, especially
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  when you look at feeder cattle. And so every little thing,
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  whether it's Commons from Washington or something
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  happening in in the environment and if it's regards to the
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  cattle industry or if it's political, whatever, it just has
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  such movement in one way there or the other.
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  So again, like you said, hopefully we live that
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  volatility in the past, but we'll see what happens as we go
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  into the new year. Absolutely.
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  Well, as we run out this podcast, Samantha, is there
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  anything else that we need to head on today that we have not
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  covered thus far or any other final comments that you have?
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  None for me. Nope.
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  Awesome. Well, to all of our listeners
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  out there, thanks for tuning in to another episode of the Cattle
• 10:21
  USA Daily Podcast. We hope you all had a very Merry
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  Christmas, that you have a wonderful New Year's.
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  As we go into 2026, make sure you check out the show notes
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  down below. If you want to get a hold of
• 10:32
  anyone on our team to talk about getting some coverage, getting
• 10:36
  some risk protection, get a hold of Samantha or just anyone else
• 10:40
  and they will be able to help you make those decisions for you
• 10:42
  and your operation. Again, those links are down in
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  the show notes. Have a wonderful rest of your
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  day y'all and we will see you all next time.