Transcript

Credlin | 25 March · Credlin

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome back. Well in just under ten minutes, probably about
0:03
Speaker 1: well five or six minutes. Now Jim Chalmers will hand
0:06
Speaker 1: down his fourth budget, gentlemen. Now our chief election analyst,
0:10
Speaker 1: Tom Connell. Tom, I was doing the maths in my head.
0:15
Speaker 1: This is my twenty sixth federal budget. I think you
0:20
Speaker 1: yet more for murder, don't you mean? It's a hard
0:23
Speaker 1: slog for all of us getting through all the numbers
0:26
Speaker 1: and other things that are thrown to us. But of
0:28
Speaker 1: course this is on the even of an election, so
0:30
Speaker 1: it's also got a favorite of politics in it. I
0:33
Speaker 1: suspect tonight.
0:36
Speaker 2: It'll have a lot of politics, and it listened to
0:38
Speaker 2: the language trim Jim Chalmers because he knows this is
0:41
Speaker 2: essentially just a bigger stage trim to frame what he
0:44
Speaker 2: says labor has done in terms of bringing down inflation
0:47
Speaker 2: and helping out on cost of living. Now I'm only
0:50
Speaker 2: up to I think fourteen this year, Peter, so you
0:53
Speaker 2: can tell me afterwards. I suppose how well he's done.
0:56
Speaker 2: But we know that from the Labour point of view.
0:58
Speaker 2: What's interesting about all the holding out there is that
1:01
Speaker 2: it suggests that Jim Chalmers is relatively popular and seen
1:04
Speaker 2: as a good performer, but the coalition retains confidence from
1:08
Speaker 2: the electorate in terms of managing the budget and the economy.
1:11
Speaker 3: So that's the sort of dual element going on out there.
1:15
Speaker 2: In terms of what we're going to hear tonight, I
1:17
Speaker 2: do understand we'll get some more cost of living measures,
1:19
Speaker 2: but even they have been described by labor inside as
1:22
Speaker 2: as modest.
1:22
Speaker 3: Peter, there is no doubt the plan earlier this year.
1:25
Speaker 2: In fact, the only debate over summer was would they
1:27
Speaker 2: have an election in February or April. They decided on April,
1:31
Speaker 2: and then, of course we know cyclone Alfred arrived, so
1:34
Speaker 2: before they'd put that out there, before they knew that
1:37
Speaker 2: was coming, the big change, the big spend on medicare
1:39
Speaker 2: and bulk billing was announced, and that's meant it just
1:41
Speaker 2: feels like a budget a little bit without a centerpiece tonight,
1:45
Speaker 2: And for that reason, there is a strong anticipation of
1:48
Speaker 2: an election being called very soon after this, so this
1:51
Speaker 2: will be I think a little bit more about framing,
1:53
Speaker 2: albeit there will be some new measures announced as well
1:56
Speaker 2: tonight by the Treasurer for people to listen out to.
2:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I just want to say for people at
2:02
Speaker 1: home from experience I mean, the Treasurer's speech is not
2:06
Speaker 1: necessarily something that he holds the pen on. It's a
2:09
Speaker 1: speech that's owned by the government. The PM's office and
2:13
Speaker 1: himself particularly has a lot of say about the framing.
2:17
Speaker 1: The party polsters heavily involved, the Federal Director or the
2:20
Speaker 1: labor equivalents involved. All the material in that speech is
2:25
Speaker 1: tested through groups. The languages precise, I think Labour loves
2:29
Speaker 1: to use a language repetition. I think they do that
2:32
Speaker 1: quite well in these speeches. I think the art form
2:35
Speaker 1: still the principal artist in all of this was Peter Costello,
2:39
Speaker 1: but then he had something to sell. I mean, he
2:41
Speaker 1: had a really demonstrable economic turnaround. That's not what we're
2:46
Speaker 1: looking at tonight. We're looking at years and years ahead
2:49
Speaker 1: of deficits and catastrophic debt. To be honest, a lot
2:54
Speaker 1: of squibbing of tough decisions too. One thing we saw
2:57
Speaker 1: in the US selection was a sense from Donald Trump,
3:01
Speaker 1: and he asked a question repeatedly, are you better off?
3:05
Speaker 1: And most Americans clearly we're not. They voted accordingly. Today,
3:08
Speaker 1: the government's anticipated that this will come from the opposition
3:12
Speaker 1: to the governments out there saying well, we've turned a corner,
3:15
Speaker 1: A said of costumrs. Do you think people buy that?
3:18
Speaker 1: He's saying, well, they're not buying it in the groups
3:21
Speaker 1: that he's dealing with, the po the polling that he's conducting.
3:25
Speaker 1: You're our election analyst, what's your expectation here?
3:31
Speaker 3: Well, that the problem for Labor.
3:33
Speaker 2: I think that even if you've just turned the corner,
3:35
Speaker 2: there's not much benefit from it flowing in just yet.
3:38
Speaker 2: Just think of all the predictions as well, Peter on
3:40
Speaker 2: when we were going to get rape cuts. Essentially they
3:43
Speaker 2: came a full year after expectations.
3:45
Speaker 3: Now, if there'd been a year of rape.
3:46
Speaker 2: Cuts, of four or five of them, when Jim Chalmers
3:49
Speaker 2: tells people we've turned the corner, they'd be going, yeah,
3:52
Speaker 2: we know that, and our you know, even if we've
3:54
Speaker 2: had in a net sense, a tougher three years in
3:57
Speaker 2: living memory compared to living memory, it would like the
4:00
Speaker 2: improvement had really come. So look, Labor would have been
4:02
Speaker 2: happy they got that rate cut in February, but that
4:04
Speaker 2: is all that's really going to be on the table.
4:06
Speaker 3: So that's a difficulty.
4:07
Speaker 2: And the comparison with that US election, it was something
4:11
Speaker 2: that was asked, of course many years ago.
4:13
Speaker 3: You correct me if I'm wrong.
4:14
Speaker 2: I think it was Reagan, and obviously it became about
4:17
Speaker 2: that comparison. Now, clearly for voters the answer is no,
4:21
Speaker 2: that can Labor convince them.
4:23
Speaker 3: Part of their argument, actually, Peter, has.
4:24
Speaker 2: Been it would have been worse under the coalition because
4:27
Speaker 2: of their opposition of some of the cost of living policy.
4:29
Speaker 2: So they actually haven't been saying things are good. Their
4:32
Speaker 2: main argument is things could have been worse. Now that's
4:35
Speaker 2: going to be tough to take the election. They're anticipating
4:38
Speaker 2: a swing against the real question is how much can
4:40
Speaker 2: they hold in terms of that swing and whether it
4:43
Speaker 2: will be big enough to turf them from government. I
4:45
Speaker 2: don't think anyone thinks there are strong chance of a majority.
4:49
Speaker 2: You never know, but if you look at the swing,
4:51
Speaker 2: and the other thing we're going to remember from the
4:52
Speaker 2: last election is they only won those seventy seven seats
4:55
Speaker 2: even though it was supposed to be a thumping win,
4:57
Speaker 2: and that's left them highly vulnerable.
5:01
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think you made the point, and I picked
5:03
Speaker 1: it up from your comments too. I mean, it's a
5:05
Speaker 1: long time since we've had a first term incumbent government
5:08
Speaker 1: with such a small swag of steats coming in from opposition.
5:13
Speaker 1: I mean often the margins ten or fifteen up their sleeve.
5:16
Speaker 1: The government hasn't got this. They came in on seventy seven.
5:19
Speaker 1: They need seventy six for a majority. He's got nothing
5:21
Speaker 1: to lose in terms of a seat count, but he's
5:24
Speaker 1: going to lose him if you look at the trend
5:26
Speaker 1: in the polls. I've got an eye on what's happening
5:28
Speaker 1: there in the chamber. Of course, when the Treasurer enters
5:31
Speaker 1: the room, we'll go there live, of course, but let's
5:34
Speaker 1: go to speculation about the timing of the election.
5:37
Speaker 3: Here.
5:37
Speaker 1: We've got the Speaker in the chair, the Treasurer's there
5:39
Speaker 1: at the dispatch box. I think we're about ready to go.
5:42
Speaker 1: I'll have to make the point. The galleries will be
5:44
Speaker 1: stacked out with Labor supporters to make it look and
5:48
Speaker 1: sound very good. We might go there now to the
5:51
Speaker 1: House of Representatives for the fourth budget seat from Jim Chalmers.
5:55
Speaker 1: The Constitution under labor, the public service blown out by
5:58
Speaker 1: an extra thirty six thousand public servants, costing six billion
6:03
Speaker 1: dollars a year. Indeed, over the past year, three quarters
6:07
Speaker 1: of all jobs that have been created have effectively been
6:11
Speaker 1: taxpayer funded. There's been almost seven billion spent on energy
6:16
Speaker 1: rebates that the symptom of high price prices in power,
6:21
Speaker 1: but not the cause. And then there's been billions of
6:25
Speaker 1: billions for uncommercial projects like green hydrogen, and another billion
6:29
Speaker 1: two for a quantum computer that's raised a lot of
6:32
Speaker 1: concerns about how the US firm got the work in
6:36
Speaker 1: the first place. Under Labour, personal income taxes paid at
6:40
Speaker 1: twenty two percent higher in twenty twenty three. Australians suffered
6:45
Speaker 1: the biggest increase in average tax rates of any citizen
6:48
Speaker 1: in the developed world, and Labour's completely abandoned the tax
6:53
Speaker 1: to GDP cap of twenty three point nine percent. In
6:57
Speaker 1: terms of using environmental policy to stop development or this government,
7:01
Speaker 1: they are gold medallists. Its nature positive plans a good example,
7:06
Speaker 1: industrial relations to market interventions, mandatory climate disclosure laws, all
7:12
Speaker 1: the green and red tape that undermines mining. They ban
7:15
Speaker 1: two live sheep exports, and the list goes on. In
7:20
Speaker 1: terms of a Labour made energy crisis, gas prices for
7:24
Speaker 1: consumers they've increased by thirty four percent under this government.
7:28
Speaker 1: Electricity too, it's up some thirty two percent since the election.
7:32
Speaker 1: Absent tax payer funded rebates under Labour customers on electricity
7:38
Speaker 1: hardship payments or they are up sixty six percent since
7:42
Speaker 1: the election, a growth of over four hundred families a
7:45
Speaker 1: week on average, despite the government rebates, and it's set
7:50
Speaker 1: to get a whole lot worse, with Labour about to
7:53
Speaker 1: remove ninety percent of our twenty four to seven based
7:56
Speaker 1: low power from the system over the next decade. Bowen's
8:01
Speaker 1: nad renewables only East close energy pan out to twenty
8:05
Speaker 1: fifty it'll cost five times more than the one hundred
8:09
Speaker 1: and twenty two billion he previously cited. And in terms
8:13
Speaker 1: of immigration, critical in a housing crisis, Labour's open the
8:19
Speaker 1: migrant floodgates are recorded one million migrants in two years,
8:24
Speaker 1: seventy percent more than in any previous two year period
8:28
Speaker 1: in our history. And so much for keeping their election
8:33
Speaker 1: policies last time.
8:35
Speaker 4: Reducing power prices by two hundred and seventy five dollars,
8:38
Speaker 4: reducing power prices by two hundred and seventy five dollars.
8:41
Speaker 5: By twenty twenty five, two hundred and seventy five dollars
8:44
Speaker 5: a year one.
8:45
Speaker 6: Hundred and seventy five dollars a year will get.
8:48
Speaker 5: Power prices down by two hundred and seventy five dollars a.
8:51
Speaker 4: Year, two hundred and seventy five dollars for the average
8:54
Speaker 4: house lower in twenty twenty five than today.
8:59
Speaker 1: And all of course this will get worse, really worse,
9:03
Speaker 1: if the government's reelected, and especially if we get the
9:05
Speaker 1: likely Frankenstein option of an alban easy ADAM banned Labor
9:09
Speaker 1: Green alliance. The Shadow Treasurer Angus Tayla's right to say
9:12
Speaker 1: that this is just a budget for the next five weeks,
9:16
Speaker 1: not the next five years. It's a budget for Labour's
9:19
Speaker 1: political survival, not a budget for Australia's future.
9:24
Speaker 7: We need to see a restoration of our standard of
9:27
Speaker 7: living in this budget right now. The plan for the budget,
9:32
Speaker 7: or the last budget indeed, was that we wouldn't get
9:35
Speaker 7: back to the standard of living we had when we
9:39
Speaker 7: were in government. The Coalition was in government until twenty
9:42
Speaker 7: thirty or beyond. This will be a lost decade for
9:45
Speaker 7: Australian families.
9:49
Speaker 1: Coming out of tonight, and against the backdrop of a
9:51
Speaker 1: massive taxpayer funded ad campaign to sell what will be
9:55
Speaker 1: a read ink big spending budget of voters, the election
9:59
Speaker 1: of call will be called so the opposition's challenge will
10:03
Speaker 1: be to create a real contest via Peter Dutton's Thursday
10:07
Speaker 1: Night budget reply without giving Labor too much ammunition for
10:12
Speaker 1: the inevitable scare campaign. Now I expect Dutton to up
10:16
Speaker 1: the ante on Labour's emissions obsession with more details on
10:19
Speaker 1: how the opposition will keep reliable power in the system.
10:23
Speaker 1: I hope they put more flesh on the bones of
10:25
Speaker 1: their plans for much lower immigration and perhaps have something
10:29
Speaker 1: to say about Dutton's commitment to uniting this country and
10:33
Speaker 1: ending the cultural wars that have demoralized so many Australians.
10:38
Speaker 1: Adding the strategic challenges we face with the rise of
10:41
Speaker 1: China and all the global uncertainty around Russia, Ukraine and
10:45
Speaker 1: the Middle East. And this really is a time to
10:48
Speaker 1: get the adults back in charge. And we must have
10:53
Speaker 1: a grown up government running out offense, strategy and our economy.
10:57
Speaker 1: We must have a leader with backbone, not a weak
11:00
Speaker 1: man who stands for nothing other than fighting the wars
11:03
Speaker 1: of university politics inside his hard left faction. Now that,
11:08
Speaker 1: in the end is the choice that will be before
11:11
Speaker 1: Australian voters in a matter of weeks, and I just
11:15
Speaker 1: hope to God they vote in the national interest and
11:17
Speaker 1: are not bought off with the sugar hits up to
11:20
Speaker 1: Night's handouts. That's all all eyes to camp tonight is
11:28
Speaker 1: netwill go there now for the headlines, Scyning's political reporter
11:31
Speaker 1: Tom Connell.
11:33
Speaker 2: By now, Labour's original plan would have had us deep
11:36
Speaker 2: into an election campaign, but cyclone Alfred has meant that
11:40
Speaker 2: had to change course instead. Jim Chalmers is behind closed
11:43
Speaker 2: doors briefing journalists right now on his fourth budget in
11:46
Speaker 2: this term. That's the first time that's happened since the
11:49
Speaker 2: nineteen forties.
11:51
Speaker 5: This rare opportunity, but welcome one to hand down four
11:54
Speaker 5: budgets to put the economy front and center on the
11:57
Speaker 5: eve of an election.
11:58
Speaker 2: It wasn't all stage managed events, As protesters against Tasmanian
12:03
Speaker 2: salmon farming made it to the marble foyer inside the
12:11
Speaker 2: Treasurer's office, the Prime Minister summed up what he hopes
12:14
Speaker 2: voters think of the budget.
12:16
Speaker 4: Trying to get that inflation leveled down whilst making sure
12:20
Speaker 4: we maintain employment, increase wages and defend people's living Senate.
12:27
Speaker 2: While the Treasurer was seeking to claim the mantle of
12:29
Speaker 2: being a superior manager of the budget bottom line, so.
12:33
Speaker 5: We've delivered two surpluses. We've in the first two years.
12:36
Speaker 5: We shrunk the deficit this year.
12:38
Speaker 2: The opposition points out that future deficits are now forecast
12:42
Speaker 2: to be bigger and when it comes to the next surplus,
12:45
Speaker 2: Labor has no prediction and when that could happen.
12:48
Speaker 7: This is a government that believes in government spending, big government.
12:53
Speaker 2: The bigger focus, though, for the Shadow Treasurer, is the
12:55
Speaker 2: hit to household budgets.
12:57
Speaker 7: We've seen the biggest collapse in their staff ended of
13:00
Speaker 7: living in history.
13:02
Speaker 3: So could income tax cuts be on the agenda. Don't
13:05
Speaker 3: hold your breath.
13:07
Speaker 7: We'll see. We'll see what fiscal headroom there is in
13:10
Speaker 7: the budget. Every indication is there won't be much, so.
13:13
Speaker 3: Maybe a stage four well.
13:16
Speaker 2: Sky News understands there will be fresh cost of living
13:19
Speaker 2: announcements in tonight's budget address, but they're being described as modest.
13:23
Speaker 2: The major announcements, such as bolk billing and the extension
13:26
Speaker 2: of energy rebates, have already happened. The treasure will also
13:30
Speaker 2: announce a ban on non compete clauses for most workers.
13:34
Speaker 3: Labour says one in five employers use them.
13:36
Speaker 2: To stop people starting up their own business, but with
13:39
Speaker 2: speculation the election could be called as soon as Friday.
13:42
Speaker 2: Both sides are sharpening their campaign pitch labor going way
13:46
Speaker 2: back to Peter Dutton's time as Health Minister, just.
13:49
Speaker 8: Like in twenty thirty when time and time again he
13:53
Speaker 8: promised there'd be no cuts to health.
13:55
Speaker 2: While the opposition leader says voters will have another past
13:59
Speaker 2: performance in mind.
14:00
Speaker 9: How can struggling Australian families and businesses possibly afforward.
14:05
Speaker 6: Another three years of the Albanesi government.
14:08
Speaker 3: Tom connell Sky News Canberra, Well, as.
14:13
Speaker 1: I said, it's all happening in Canberra. Will go there,
14:15
Speaker 1: of course, to the House of Representatives for the Treasurer's
14:18
Speaker 1: speech in just over an hour. Other things happen today
14:22
Speaker 1: in Canberra. Will go there now with our One Nation
14:24
Speaker 1: Chief of Staff James Ashby joining me and the Daily
14:26
Speaker 1: Telegraph journalist James Willis, to get across a whole lot
14:29
Speaker 1: of other issues. I want to take a look at
14:32
Speaker 1: question time. Of course, we saw a focus on the budget.
14:35
Speaker 1: We always see that, a whole lot of spin and
14:38
Speaker 1: new lines of attack ahead of tonight. Let's have a listen.
14:42
Speaker 4: It comes to the opposition, he will cut and the Australian.
14:45
Speaker 10: People will pay.
14:46
Speaker 11: It's every Australian that will have to pay, all to
14:49
Speaker 11: pay for six hundred billion dollars worth of nuclear reactors.
14:54
Speaker 2: We know there'll be cuts, mister speaker, and we know
14:57
Speaker 2: Australian patients will pay.
14:59
Speaker 12: If elected, they've said that they will start by making
15:02
Speaker 12: three hundred and fifty billion dollars worth of cuts to
15:06
Speaker 12: government payments and government services, and this is to pay
15:10
Speaker 12: for their six hundred billion dollar nuclear phony.
15:13
Speaker 13: Every Australian worker knows that simple truth that when he.
15:18
Speaker 10: Cuts, they will pay.
15:22
Speaker 1: There was a lot of pressure today aside from the
15:24
Speaker 1: budgets spin there on environmental policy, splits inside labor Tanya
15:29
Speaker 1: Plever Sec will get to those in a moment, James,
15:31
Speaker 1: just on this line they're trying to get up that
15:34
Speaker 1: nuclear energy equals cuts. That's the only way that Peter
15:37
Speaker 1: Dutt and the coal this you can make it all
15:39
Speaker 1: add up. And this line from the Prime Minister and
15:42
Speaker 1: the Treasurer that things are turning the corner. You know,
15:45
Speaker 1: things are getting better for families. How do you think
15:48
Speaker 1: this will go down?
15:52
Speaker 9: Well, Peter, I think it is obvious and it's quite
15:56
Speaker 9: frankly gaslighting to suggest that things are easier or getting easier.
16:00
Speaker 9: Under this alban easy government. For three years, we've seen
16:03
Speaker 9: power prices go up, We've seen interest rates go in
16:05
Speaker 9: the wrong direction, and they're only just coming back down.
16:08
Speaker 9: We've seen the only real growth in terms of jobs
16:11
Speaker 9: and the economy in areas like the ndis the public service,
16:15
Speaker 9: as you just outlined before, tens of thousands of full
16:18
Speaker 9: time public servants and the billions of dollars that adds
16:21
Speaker 9: the migration which has just been a complete failure, with
16:23
Speaker 9: a record number of people over the past few years
16:26
Speaker 9: coming to this country, and the raw dollars the living
16:29
Speaker 9: standards that Australians take home have gone in the wrong direction.
16:33
Speaker 6: That is the only figure that we should be worried about.
16:35
Speaker 9: I'm amazed that this government has gone to another budget
16:39
Speaker 9: so that they can have very smart economists and the
16:41
Speaker 9: best journalists in the country forensically go through the books
16:44
Speaker 9: and highlight once again just how bad things are. But
16:48
Speaker 9: it's also worth reminding people that in opposition, this is
16:51
Speaker 9: the exact opposite what you just outlined in your introduction, Pete,
16:55
Speaker 9: the exact opposite of what Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanezi
16:58
Speaker 9: promised to do. They said the coalition spending off the
17:01
Speaker 9: back of COVID nineteen was out of control. Jim Chalmers
17:04
Speaker 9: said that they were squirting billions of dollars around under
17:06
Speaker 9: Morrison and they would not done that. Well, they wouldn't
17:10
Speaker 9: do the same. Well they've had three years. There's been
17:13
Speaker 9: tens of billions of dollars. They haven't accounted for them.
17:16
Speaker 9: The books look as bad as ever and as a result,
17:19
Speaker 9: keep in mind, that's before you look at IR and
17:22
Speaker 9: the changes there that's impacted small business owners. There's been
17:25
Speaker 9: complete failings in regards to the GPS and all this
17:28
Speaker 9: extra money for many care without actually having to require
17:32
Speaker 9: doctors to pass on that BOLK billing in full. So
17:35
Speaker 9: bottom line, in every stage they have failed dramatically, and
17:39
Speaker 9: I'm amazed, as I say Peter, they have actually taken
17:42
Speaker 9: journalists and the public to another budget to highlight just
17:46
Speaker 9: how bad things are with the Australian books right now.
17:50
Speaker 1: Well, I think that's because they all got spooked by
17:52
Speaker 1: the cyclone, James. That's the only reason we're here, that's
17:54
Speaker 1: the only reason we're seeing the color of their money.
17:57
Speaker 1: And I make the point during COVID Labour wanted the
18:00
Speaker 1: spending from Josh Friedenberg and Scott Morrison to go higher
18:05
Speaker 1: as for longer. You know, there was nothing there in
18:07
Speaker 1: terms of spending being shoveled out the door that they opposed.
18:11
Speaker 1: So let's just go to the environment because, as I said,
18:14
Speaker 1: aside from the budget's spin, the real story today was
18:18
Speaker 1: just how much pressure the Environment Minister Tanya Pleversek was under.
18:23
Speaker 1: As I said, internally sure, but also from the coalition.
18:26
Speaker 1: Have a listen.
18:27
Speaker 14: In recent days the Prime Minister has expressed no confidence
18:31
Speaker 14: in this minister by introducing specific legislation to kurtail and
18:36
Speaker 14: override her powers under the EPBC Act.
18:40
Speaker 15: Will the Minister make a decision on the future of
18:42
Speaker 15: the north West Shelf gas expansion before the upcoming election?
18:47
Speaker 16: With the Labour governments of New South Wales, Victoria and
18:50
Speaker 16: Western Australia actively extending the life of cold fire power stations,
18:54
Speaker 16: can the Minister confirm how many coal mining approvals she
18:57
Speaker 16: has approved in this term of government?
19:01
Speaker 1: James Ashby, this looks like it's a new front opening up,
19:05
Speaker 1: but it also looks like the Prime Minister has basically
19:10
Speaker 1: hung her out to dry ill.
19:14
Speaker 10: You bet this is Tanya Plebis's exit.
19:18
Speaker 8: As far as I'm concerned it shows no love between
19:21
Speaker 8: her and the Prime Minister. The mere fact that she's
19:24
Speaker 8: been I've ridden on two critical pieces of labor policy,
19:29
Speaker 8: one being the Nature Positive Plan, which the Prime Minister
19:31
Speaker 8: hit on the head there some.
19:33
Speaker 10: Weeks or months ago. Now and now.
19:36
Speaker 8: This EPBC Act change which has gone through the Lower
19:40
Speaker 8: House today expected to go through the Senate either more
19:44
Speaker 8: than likely, well it's got to be tomorrow. That is
19:48
Speaker 8: definitely overriding what the Environment Minister has had any say over.
19:54
Speaker 8: But keeping in mind that issue down there in Tasmania,
19:58
Speaker 8: this is how desperate labor are. They wreck ignize that
20:00
Speaker 8: every seat counts. They're trying to win that seat in
20:03
Speaker 8: the northwest of Tasmania and Braddon Anne Urkhat, who's been
20:09
Speaker 8: a Senator, she has now stepped down from the Senate
20:13
Speaker 8: to run in that lower House seat. She's very popular,
20:15
Speaker 8: she lives in that area and to some extent she's
20:18
Speaker 8: been very supportive of the salmon industry. So this just
20:20
Speaker 8: goes to show there's five thousand jobs in that salmon industry.
20:24
Speaker 8: LAYBA know how important that industry is. Tazzy and they
20:28
Speaker 8: also know that if they can pick up those seats
20:31
Speaker 8: and steal them from the Coalition. It's just one, two,
20:34
Speaker 8: three seats away for Peter Dutton and keeps the Coalition.
20:39
Speaker 10: Out of government, so very important. What's happened today?
20:45
Speaker 1: Just to quip when I can see you're in the
20:46
Speaker 1: Mural Hall there, I know you've been in and around
20:47
Speaker 1: the Parliament. What's this word that somehow the Senate is
20:51
Speaker 1: not sitting on Thursday. Highly unusual. If that's the case
20:55
Speaker 1: in budget week, what does that give you in terms
20:59
Speaker 1: of any sense of a timing.
21:04
Speaker 8: Well, they're saying that they're going to bring forward estimates
21:07
Speaker 8: for the Thursday and host them here in the Senate,
21:11
Speaker 8: which is very as you know very well, that's very unusual.
21:15
Speaker 8: But there is speculation that the Prime Minister will make
21:19
Speaker 8: an announcement on Thursday, when the Opposition leader Peter Dutton
21:23
Speaker 8: is supposed to give his budget in reply speech. The
21:27
Speaker 8: Prime Minister is said to the speculation he will actually
21:30
Speaker 8: come out publicly and say he will be going to
21:33
Speaker 8: the Governor General on Friday, but he'll do that Thursday.
21:37
Speaker 8: Take the oxygen out of Peter Dutton's response, and then
21:40
Speaker 8: we'll be in full blown election mode as of the weekend.
21:45
Speaker 1: I said this to someone the other day, I think
21:47
Speaker 1: it might have been Sunday. I was talking to one
21:48
Speaker 1: of my editors saying, this will be the scale Duggary game.
21:52
Speaker 1: It still allows Dutton to deliver his speech on Thursday night.
21:55
Speaker 1: It doesn't call the election on before then, but it
21:59
Speaker 1: makes sure that everybody in the media and all the
22:01
Speaker 1: papers the next day are not talking about Dutton's speech.
22:03
Speaker 1: They're talking about the impending election. And there is form too.
22:06
Speaker 1: John Howard announced it one day and formally went to
22:10
Speaker 1: the Governor General some days later. Hey we're looking tonight,
22:13
Speaker 1: aren't you. I certainly am at those columns where we've
22:16
Speaker 1: got decisions taken but not yet announced, because this will
22:21
Speaker 1: be where they hire the election paulk Barrel, James Ashby.
22:24
Speaker 1: Isn't it?
22:28
Speaker 10: Oh for sure?
22:28
Speaker 8: But this has been one of the most lackluster budgets
22:32
Speaker 8: that I've ever seen. I've been here for ten years
22:34
Speaker 8: to see ten of these, and there isn't the media.
22:38
Speaker 8: There really isn't nothing. There's nothing for them to announce.
22:42
Speaker 6: You.
22:42
Speaker 10: Typically on a budget.
22:44
Speaker 8: Morning, the grounds or the grass right opposite Parliament House
22:47
Speaker 8: is just littered with journalists from all the major networks
22:50
Speaker 8: and they're camped out giving their assessment of what might
22:54
Speaker 8: be in the budget.
22:55
Speaker 10: We know precisely what's in the budget.
22:56
Speaker 8: There's not much left to deliver and anything they do
22:59
Speaker 8: at this point will be fairly lackluster. I don't think
23:02
Speaker 8: the public are overly engaged. There isn't the journalists. There
23:05
Speaker 8: isn't the media here in the Mural Hall or.
23:08
Speaker 10: Anywhere else around Parliament. It's very lackluster.
23:12
Speaker 8: I know you're not even here, which says something to
23:14
Speaker 8: me as well, Peter. I know you've got a full
23:17
Speaker 8: desk here in Canberra. But at the same time too,
23:20
Speaker 8: it says to me, if the journalists aren't here, including you,
23:23
Speaker 8: there's something amiss this year.
23:26
Speaker 1: Well, I think we might have realized that this was
23:28
Speaker 1: in the budget they wanted to deliver, and we can
23:30
Speaker 1: read it almost before he opens up and gives us
23:33
Speaker 1: the speech. Let's talk about the tears if we can.
23:36
Speaker 1: James Willis at video yesterday Monique Ryan's husband, God love him,
23:41
Speaker 1: but you he was in the doghouse last night. He
23:43
Speaker 1: removed that liberal rivals core flute news today that there
23:47
Speaker 1: has been a second incident. Was my husband, I tell
23:50
Speaker 1: you he'd be in the spare room for a month
23:52
Speaker 1: but anyway, second incident now, this one's been reported to police.
23:56
Speaker 1: A more imagery here. It looks like this might be
23:59
Speaker 1: the the gameplay them here for the so called big
24:04
Speaker 1: integrity tiars. What do you make of this?
24:09
Speaker 9: Well, that's right, when they run on a platform of integrity,
24:12
Speaker 9: there's not a lot of integrity on what we saw
24:14
Speaker 9: from Monique Ryan's husband. Look, you're right, Look he was
24:18
Speaker 9: obviously going into bat for his wife.
24:21
Speaker 6: He pushed you far.
24:22
Speaker 9: I don't think you'll be involved in the campaign for
24:24
Speaker 9: the next few weeks at least. But look the wider
24:26
Speaker 9: issue here, and I've seen this firsthand on Sydney's northern
24:29
Speaker 9: beaches Peter where you've got very tight contests, particularly on
24:33
Speaker 9: the top half. I mean, zalie steggle based on margins
24:36
Speaker 9: is largely safe. But I saw it the first time
24:38
Speaker 9: around when she first went up against Tony Abbott.
24:41
Speaker 6: You've got very fierce.
24:43
Speaker 9: And very ugly campaigns now in these liberal versus Teal seats.
24:48
Speaker 6: The Teals have a lot of money, they've got a
24:50
Speaker 6: lot of volunteers.
24:51
Speaker 9: And quite literally I saw this first hand at night
24:54
Speaker 9: where there were signs being stripped down. A car would
24:57
Speaker 9: pull up, stripped down Liberal signs, move on the next one.
25:00
Speaker 9: The signs will be back in a few days and
25:02
Speaker 9: it would have happened all again. So look, given we
25:04
Speaker 9: haven't even started the election campaign yet, there's going to
25:07
Speaker 9: be a lot more of this. It's ugly, it's a
25:09
Speaker 9: waste of police resources largely as well. But certainly this
25:13
Speaker 9: is something you now see very commonly in teal versus
25:17
Speaker 9: liberal contests that.
25:18
Speaker 6: Are fierce tight and clearly very ugly on the ground.
25:24
Speaker 1: And what's this talk about referring Sooe Daniel to the
25:29
Speaker 1: anti corruption watchdog James Ashby.
25:34
Speaker 8: Look, if this happens, it'll be the second time she's
25:37
Speaker 8: already been found to have no case to answer here.
25:40
Speaker 8: I think there's certainly questions as to whether or not
25:44
Speaker 8: she should have placed on her reportable system here where
25:50
Speaker 8: if you receive a gifting kind or a donation, you've
25:53
Speaker 8: either got to report it to the electoral Commission or
25:57
Speaker 8: certainly put it on your pecuniary interest if you've gifts
26:00
Speaker 8: in kind. We're talking about a staff member that's been
26:03
Speaker 8: placed in her office at somebody else's expense, and certainly
26:08
Speaker 8: you know there's questions as to what the merit of
26:10
Speaker 8: that person in her.
26:11
Speaker 10: Office was all about whether there was any.
26:15
Speaker 8: Financial benefit to either the member or to one of
26:18
Speaker 8: her sponsors or.
26:21
Speaker 10: Cash contributors to her previous elections. So look, I don't know.
26:25
Speaker 8: Look at this time, weeks ahead of an election, you
26:29
Speaker 8: just don't know what's behind the truth here. And if
26:32
Speaker 8: it's already been investigated, I think you know, there's not
26:36
Speaker 8: much more that's going to be seen from this case.
26:40
Speaker 1: All right. Nannette Simons, this was the grandma attacked by
26:44
Speaker 1: one of the recently released n z YQ foreign criminals.
26:48
Speaker 1: She's spoken exclusively for your paper, James Willis. She says,
26:51
Speaker 1: I've still got the shakes. I got a lot of anxiety,
26:54
Speaker 1: especially at night. I toss and turn. Now days out
26:57
Speaker 1: from an election, these issues not go going away for Labor.
27:04
Speaker 9: Yeah, and Peter, I think if you had a podium
27:06
Speaker 9: for Labour's biggest failings in this term.
27:09
Speaker 6: And look, there's a lot of competition.
27:10
Speaker 9: But surely the fact that now three hundred dangerous criminals,
27:15
Speaker 9: some of the murderers, some of them rapists, dangerous offenders
27:19
Speaker 9: who aren't technically you know, in the eyes of the
27:21
Speaker 9: public our responsibility, they're not Australians, but have been allowed
27:26
Speaker 9: to be released into the community. The Labor government says
27:29
Speaker 9: it's a really tricky one to get them back inside
27:32
Speaker 9: or to deport them, but ultimately they've been allowed to roam.
27:36
Speaker 9: There's all sorts of issues with local state authorities, local
27:39
Speaker 9: attorney generals, local police commissioners and the wider issue, but
27:43
Speaker 9: it has been a monumental failure.
27:46
Speaker 5: Failure.
27:46
Speaker 9: Labor was caught short with their pants down when this
27:49
Speaker 9: High Court decision was made, and off the back we've
27:51
Speaker 9: allowed hundreds of people to not properly be locked up
27:55
Speaker 9: or booted out of this country.
27:57
Speaker 6: And I just think it's a terrible failure.
27:58
Speaker 9: And the people involved in leading Tony Burke, Andrew Giles
28:02
Speaker 9: largely as well Claire O'Neill, who was in that portfolio
28:05
Speaker 9: for a long time, had a shock of there and
28:07
Speaker 9: that should be called out.
28:08
Speaker 6: And the lead up to the Poles.
28:12
Speaker 1: Hey, just before we go, James Ashby just quickly Queensland
28:14
Speaker 1: New Stadium announced today and also that the Olympics will
28:18
Speaker 1: go regional, something promised to Victorians in the Calm Games
28:22
Speaker 1: before they were canceled. But I don't think they're going
28:23
Speaker 1: to cancel the Olympics. What are the Queenslanders are making
28:27
Speaker 1: of this news this evening.
28:30
Speaker 8: Oh look at there's finally some clarity over what's going
28:33
Speaker 8: to happen. It's taken how many years, three almost four
28:36
Speaker 8: years for us to finally get some clarity over whether
28:39
Speaker 8: a new stadium is going to be built.
28:40
Speaker 10: Am I a fan of the Olympics? No, I'm not.
28:42
Speaker 10: I know I don't speak for every Queenslander.
28:44
Speaker 8: It's no longer going to be the Brisbane Olympics in
28:47
Speaker 8: twenty thirty two.
28:48
Speaker 10: It will be a Queensland Olympics.
28:51
Speaker 8: It's a hell of a lot of waste of money
28:53
Speaker 8: on new stadiums down there. And I don't know how
28:55
Speaker 8: this premiere and the federal government are going to be
28:59
Speaker 8: able to justify to people who live in regional parts,
29:02
Speaker 8: how they can justify this huge expense at a time
29:05
Speaker 8: when this country's only going backwards financially and this is
29:09
Speaker 8: all going on the credit card.
29:10
Speaker 10: We're all going to pay for it at some point.
29:13
Speaker 8: But not a great outcome, I don't think. But look
29:15
Speaker 8: for people in Brisbane. I know there's people in our
29:17
Speaker 8: office that are cheering that Victoria Parks got it because
29:21
Speaker 8: it means.
29:21
Speaker 10: Their property prices will go up. But for the rest
29:24
Speaker 10: of us. It's just a huge expense set a time.
29:26
Speaker 10: We don't want the Olympics.
29:29
Speaker 1: All right, we'll see what happens come twenty thirty two. Gents,
29:32
Speaker 1: Thank you enjoying budget a budget night, and look forward
29:34
Speaker 1: to your coverage tomorrow. James Willis, Okay, let's get to
29:37
Speaker 1: some analysis here from the economic big brain. That is
29:41
Speaker 1: my next guest, Udobank's Economic advisort Warren Hogan. Warren, thank
29:45
Speaker 1: you for your time. This is a bit like your
29:47
Speaker 1: grand final life. Suspect Budget Night in Canberra. I don't
29:52
Speaker 1: suspect we'll see fiscal restraint tonight. We're seeing that labor's
29:55
Speaker 1: committed around sixty seven billion dollars in new spending since January.
30:00
Speaker 1: There'll be a sugar hit, absolutely, But also if you
30:03
Speaker 1: read the papers very carefully, we've got ready ink as
30:06
Speaker 1: far as the eye can see. We've got debt hitting
30:09
Speaker 1: close to a trillion dollars deficits. I think we've got
30:12
Speaker 1: any surplus on the horizon, and we've got no attempt
30:15
Speaker 1: I suspect to deal with structural deficit or unsustainable recurrence
30:20
Speaker 1: spending unless you want to tell me. I'm Pollyanna and
30:23
Speaker 1: I've got it all wrong.
30:25
Speaker 17: Yeah, Hi, Peter, No, you haven't got it wrong. And really,
30:29
Speaker 17: if you want to sum it up, it's the Charter
30:31
Speaker 17: of budget honesty has been torn up and thrown out
30:34
Speaker 17: because the whole structure of Australia's government finances and the
30:39
Speaker 17: way we've managed it through this period of great economic
30:41
Speaker 17: success in the last thirty years has been with good government,
30:47
Speaker 17: financial management, restraint, modest government, not small government, and we've
30:52
Speaker 17: now really just got rid of all of that. The
30:54
Speaker 17: size of government in this country in terms of recurrent
30:57
Speaker 17: spending is exploded under previous coalition governments as well as
31:03
Speaker 17: this government. But this government has actually shown absolutely no
31:07
Speaker 17: desire to pull things back. In fact, it's supercharged recurrent
31:12
Speaker 17: spending the record level.
31:13
Speaker 1: So I think.
31:14
Speaker 17: That's a pretty accurate picture. One hundred and forty billion
31:18
Speaker 17: dollars of deficits just for the next four years, adding
31:21
Speaker 17: off balance sheet, talking about two hundred and thirty billion
31:25
Speaker 17: dollars worth of government borrowing that we need to do
31:28
Speaker 17: in this country over the next four years, which is
31:31
Speaker 17: a remarkablely scary figure.
31:36
Speaker 1: Now, I'm just going to put you over two things
31:37
Speaker 1: you said there, because people often ask me to better
31:40
Speaker 1: explain things so that they can follow them at home.
31:43
Speaker 1: Recurrent spending and off budget borrowing. First point there, explain
31:49
Speaker 1: what recurrent spending is, but just help people understand when
31:52
Speaker 1: we borrow money as a nation, how does that happen.
31:57
Speaker 17: Yeah, So the reason I took look at recurrent spending
32:01
Speaker 17: because that's what their long term commitment is. Whether it's
32:04
Speaker 17: seen as public service and that which is actually for
32:07
Speaker 17: the federal government pretty small, but it's what's grown as
32:10
Speaker 17: the care economy and all this funding of services that
32:13
Speaker 17: are provided by the private sector, but they are not
32:16
Speaker 17: contestable in its government money, but it's year to year,
32:20
Speaker 17: it's recurrent, whereas investment I think is often useful and
32:24
Speaker 17: needed in an important role for government. And of course
32:26
Speaker 17: recurrence spending is going to squeeze out the private sector,
32:30
Speaker 17: which is exactly what we're seeing now with all these
32:32
Speaker 17: publicly funded jobs, making it hard for private businesses to
32:36
Speaker 17: get staff and invest and grow and innovate, which we
32:40
Speaker 17: know the private sector is the source of that.
32:42
Speaker 1: On your other.
32:42
Speaker 17: Point, the reality is any government shortfall is funded by
32:46
Speaker 17: borrowing in the government bond market, in the wholestale markets,
32:49
Speaker 17: which is where the banks borrow, which is where ultimately
32:51
Speaker 17: we all borrow. And although we don't talk about it
32:54
Speaker 17: much anymore, we used to talk about the concept of
32:56
Speaker 17: big government borrowing crowding out the rest of us. I
33:00
Speaker 17: think at the moment it's actually the labor market I
33:02
Speaker 17: crowding out through hiring of people and denying the private
33:06
Speaker 17: sector stuff. But if we keep going down the track
33:08
Speaker 17: we're going, this borrowing in terms of the bond market
33:12
Speaker 17: could have an impact on the cost of money throughout
33:15
Speaker 17: the economy.
33:18
Speaker 1: And what sort of interest bill taxpayers paying.
33:23
Speaker 17: Well, it's becoming now one of the biggest costs to government.
33:29
Speaker 17: It was down near zero when our debt was zero
33:33
Speaker 17: prior to the GFC, but we're talking tens of billions
33:37
Speaker 17: of dollars every year when once we had a budget
33:40
Speaker 17: and an economy where the government didn't have to pay
33:42
Speaker 17: any interest. And of course that's snowballs because if you're
33:46
Speaker 17: borrowing money to pay the borrowing the interest on previous borrings,
33:51
Speaker 17: then you know that other services are going to suffer.
33:54
Speaker 17: So we're seeing obviously no attempt to get the budget
33:58
Speaker 17: back in order, and even Jim Chalmer's former boss, Wayne
34:01
Speaker 17: Swan did some fiscal tightening after the GFC, which was
34:05
Speaker 17: admirable of him. But there's absolutely nothing and we can
34:08
Speaker 17: see that in the political attacks on the Coalition about
34:11
Speaker 17: cut cut cut. They know what they're doing wrong, but
34:15
Speaker 17: they're committed and they're taking that into this budget and
34:17
Speaker 17: into this election, and I hope the Australian people will
34:20
Speaker 17: understand that we're running tremendous risk with our economy by
34:23
Speaker 17: growing the size of government the way we are.
34:29
Speaker 1: Talk to me about any inflationary risk with spending in
34:33
Speaker 1: the budget.
34:35
Speaker 17: Well, the direct effect is that competition for labor and
34:41
Speaker 17: that will put upward pressure on labor costs, which every
34:45
Speaker 17: business is telling me is going up, and that will
34:49
Speaker 17: have an immediate and direct effect on inflation. But growing
34:53
Speaker 17: the size of government at the expense of the private
34:57
Speaker 17: sector reduces innovation and productivity. That's the big issue that
35:01
Speaker 17: is the flashing red light in this economy right now.
35:03
Speaker 17: We have fundamentally changing the economic structures that were based
35:08
Speaker 17: on our modern prosperity and if we keep going that
35:12
Speaker 17: productivity performance is what underpins our living standards for our
35:17
Speaker 17: real incomes, our wages as well as our profits. And
35:21
Speaker 17: of course it's inflationary because business and others will have
35:25
Speaker 17: to put prices up. So this is going to continue
35:29
Speaker 17: to maintain upward pressure on interest rates. And of course
35:33
Speaker 17: there's a scenario where the RBA could be brought back
35:35
Speaker 17: to tightening policy again, raising interest rates because of this
35:40
Speaker 17: large government spending.
35:41
Speaker 1: God forbid, what worries me, Warren. You know, we've got,
35:45
Speaker 1: at a federal level anyway, a three year election cycle,
35:48
Speaker 1: so it's short. I think it's too short, but it's
35:50
Speaker 1: what we've got at the moment, and of course recent experiences,
35:54
Speaker 1: the governments are timing this budget right up against an election,
35:59
Speaker 1: so it's not a true budget per se. It's an
36:02
Speaker 1: election pork barrel. It's an election budget. So we only
36:06
Speaker 1: really then have two opportunities to do any of the
36:09
Speaker 1: reform that our economy desperately needs.
36:13
Speaker 17: Yeah, well, well you can argue we've seen a lot
36:16
Speaker 17: of reform. It's just not what we think of in
36:18
Speaker 17: this country is positive reform, which is about improving economic
36:22
Speaker 17: efficiency and reducing the tax burd and these sorts of
36:26
Speaker 17: things that make us a wealthier nation and everyone better
36:29
Speaker 17: off for it. We are reforming our economic structures by
36:32
Speaker 17: winding back the economy that was built since the hawk
36:36
Speaker 17: keeping years of the nineteen eighties, so I think you know,
36:41
Speaker 17: you can make I don't think we should extend terms
36:43
Speaker 17: of parliament. You can try and think about it. Why
36:45
Speaker 17: don't we have a little election every year and make
36:48
Speaker 17: sure that they focus on being responsible rather than because
36:51
Speaker 17: that would bring the politics right out And you know,
36:54
Speaker 17: I think it's already at a point now where people
36:55
Speaker 17: are looking through it. What will be interesting tonight is
36:57
Speaker 17: if the government starts throwing a lot of money around
37:00
Speaker 17: and like they have in the past, and like the
37:02
Speaker 17: Queensland government did last year, whether people look through it.
37:05
Speaker 17: I mean people are cynically so no, they won't and.
37:08
Speaker 1: That's been happening more well yeah, yeah, all right, well
37:11
Speaker 1: leave it there, will afford to your analysis tomorrow night.
37:13
Speaker 1: Thank you, Warren Hogan. All right, after the break for
37:15
Speaker 1: all the tough talk and the growing security challenges of
37:18
Speaker 1: our times, Labor has confirmed the leaving the defense budget
37:21
Speaker 1: tonight largely unchanged las a bit later on the stagmen,
37:25
Speaker 1: cost of housing migrants in the UK and the problems
37:28
Speaker 1: headed our way.
37:34
Speaker 6: Right.
37:34
Speaker 1: A whole lot to get to, including what's happening in
37:36
Speaker 1: the UK and relation to their borders, which is a
37:39
Speaker 1: terrible poor tent if the Greens and Labor form government
37:43
Speaker 1: after our election, your relation to our borders here in Australia.
37:46
Speaker 1: At first, the Coalition's vowed to cut at least thirty
37:49
Speaker 1: six thousand public service jobs if they win the election. Now,
37:53
Speaker 1: this is in star contrast to Labour's plans to increase
37:56
Speaker 1: the number of permanent National Disability Insurance Agents staff and
38:01
Speaker 1: to continue to allow every public servant that wants to
38:05
Speaker 1: to work from home permanently five days a week. Joining
38:09
Speaker 1: me now, senior Fellow and chief economist at the Institute
38:11
Speaker 1: of Public Affairs, and wonderful Adam Crichton. Well, I was
38:14
Speaker 1: just saying to Worr and Hogan, this is a bit
38:16
Speaker 1: like your grand Fine and night. You economists love it,
38:18
Speaker 1: But talk to me about Labour's rapid growth in the
38:22
Speaker 1: public service and the Coalition's plans to cut it back.
38:26
Speaker 1: What do you make of these ideas?
38:27
Speaker 18: Well, I've chosen the figure of thirty six thousand, which
38:29
Speaker 18: makes sense. That's the increase throughout the Albanezy government. In
38:33
Speaker 18: just three years we've had this extraordinary increase. So we've
38:35
Speaker 18: gone from about two thousand to two hundred and thirty
38:37
Speaker 18: six thousand, say, which is a massive increase. And if
38:40
Speaker 18: you take a broader look, so roughly in the Australian
38:42
Speaker 18: economy last year they are about four hundred and ninety
38:44
Speaker 18: thousand new jobs. Now, one third of those jobs were
38:48
Speaker 18: actually public sector broadly defined, so state, federal, local government
38:51
Speaker 18: new jobs. But the public sector formally is only fifteen
38:54
Speaker 18: percent of all employment. So that's extraordinary growth of that
38:57
Speaker 18: one sector. But even more scary, And you just mentioned
39:00
Speaker 18: that the childcare jobs earlier when we were talking off air,
39:03
Speaker 18: and all of the non market jobs which are ultimately
39:06
Speaker 18: funded by taxpayers money. So three quarters of that four
39:11
Speaker 18: hundred and ninety thousand were actually those sorts of shadow
39:14
Speaker 18: public sector jobs. So the public sector is just growing
39:17
Speaker 18: extraordinarily fast.
39:18
Speaker 3: It's out of control. We need to rein it in.
39:19
Speaker 1: Do you think that was done by the government deliberately
39:21
Speaker 1: to pump prime the jobs market so that we didn't
39:24
Speaker 1: end up in a recession when things were looking groom
39:26
Speaker 1: I know in per capita terms we were, but it
39:29
Speaker 1: felt like there was this whole a lot of effort
39:31
Speaker 1: done manipulating things to avoid a technical recession in general terms.
39:37
Speaker 18: Yeah, certainly, Look, I think it's that I think it's
39:39
Speaker 18: also partly there are just so many programs that need
39:41
Speaker 18: to be administered, and there's always new programs. I mean,
39:44
Speaker 18: the NDIS, I think you just mentioned before, this is
39:46
Speaker 18: a case in point. I mean, it's growing eight percent
39:48
Speaker 18: per year the cost. There are more and more people
39:50
Speaker 18: on it all the time, and so you need more
39:51
Speaker 18: and more administrators. You know, there's this startling figure now
39:55
Speaker 18: that something like one in seven young boys age six
39:58
Speaker 18: are now on the NBA with autism. Twenty years ago
40:02
Speaker 18: it would have been one percent of boys that age.
40:04
Speaker 18: I mean, this is just extraordinary and extremely depressing, you know,
40:07
Speaker 18: from a social point of view that we have this.
40:09
Speaker 18: So I think to cut the publics, and you mentioned
40:11
Speaker 18: about the coalition, it's great that they want to cut
40:13
Speaker 18: the jobs, but they have to cut the programs as well,
40:16
Speaker 18: because if they don't cut the programs, they're just going
40:18
Speaker 18: to have to have well either more you know, they're
40:21
Speaker 18: going to have to hire other public servants, or they're
40:23
Speaker 18: going to have to hire consultants outside the public sector,
40:25
Speaker 18: as you well know, you know, the shadow public sector,
40:28
Speaker 18: to manage these programs or to you know, to optimize them.
40:32
Speaker 18: So it's more than just cutting jobs. You actually have
40:35
Speaker 18: to have the courage to cut the programs and just
40:37
Speaker 18: back to the the ndis, no one has really said
40:40
Speaker 18: anything about the endossim.
40:41
Speaker 1: No, they're all talk to me about the work from
40:45
Speaker 1: home debate because I know you've just come back from
40:47
Speaker 1: the state. It's huge feature over there, vote winner I
40:49
Speaker 1: think for President Trump, and certainly when he moves so
40:52
Speaker 1: quickly on at post election, it resonated here in Australia. Interestingly, though,
40:57
Speaker 1: the PM here is trying to take the opposition to
40:59
Speaker 1: t ask over ending work from home. They're saying, you know,
41:03
Speaker 1: Peter Dutt, you're out of touch. But I look at
41:06
Speaker 1: an example of the Home Affairs Department. This is Border
41:08
Speaker 1: Protection and aim that department seventy percent of people work
41:12
Speaker 1: from home. How can you work for Home affairs from home?
41:16
Speaker 10: Yeah?
41:16
Speaker 18: Well look the facts and figures were even worse actually
41:20
Speaker 18: in DC. I mean, just as I was leaving a
41:21
Speaker 18: few months ago, some extraordinary figures came out that ninety
41:24
Speaker 18: percent of the federal workforce was still working from home.
41:26
Speaker 18: This is in Washington, DC. So they have these huge
41:29
Speaker 18: buildings with basically you know what in them. So Donald
41:32
Speaker 18: Trump administration has certainly sought to reverse that. Look, I
41:36
Speaker 18: think in principle it's a good idea. But basically, lots
41:40
Speaker 18: of people have become used to working from home since
41:42
Speaker 18: the pandemic and they quite like it, and if they're
41:44
Speaker 18: forced to come back in the office, they will quit.
41:46
Speaker 18: So some people will be lost.
41:47
Speaker 1: Isn't that part of the problem with our productivity though,
41:49
Speaker 1: that they are working from home?
41:51
Speaker 18: Yes, Look, I mean there's a big intellectual debate as
41:54
Speaker 18: to whether it's more or less productive. And look, it
41:56
Speaker 18: probably depends on the individual. Frankly, in some cases it
41:58
Speaker 18: probably is more productive. I mean, you know, I hesitate
42:02
Speaker 18: to apply blanket rules. I think it probably depends on
42:04
Speaker 18: the particular nature of the department. And certainly I don't
42:07
Speaker 18: think the government should be mandating, you know, what happens
42:09
Speaker 18: in the private sector. I think that's ups to work
42:12
Speaker 18: out for themselves. And you do you know, there's some
42:15
Speaker 18: other figures from the US just came out. Roughly one
42:18
Speaker 18: quarter of American workers now are at least partly working
42:20
Speaker 18: from home, which is an extraordinary figure, right, you know,
42:24
Speaker 18: so that's at least one day a week. You know,
42:26
Speaker 18: it's not completely working from home, but that's a very
42:28
Speaker 18: large figure. And The other fact that came out of
42:30
Speaker 18: this large survey was that was that many people would
42:33
Speaker 18: be willing to forego eight thousand dollars a year of
42:36
Speaker 18: their salary to work from home. So how about this,
42:39
Speaker 18: you know, if Peter Dutton says, look, you know you
42:42
Speaker 18: can work from home, but you're going to take a pakeup,
42:44
Speaker 18: you know, maybe that's the trade off.
42:46
Speaker 1: What about some comments, because I think the whole work
42:48
Speaker 1: from home debates in middle class debate. You know, if
42:51
Speaker 1: you've got a laptop sort of job, you can work
42:53
Speaker 1: from anywhere in the world. And I suspect people do.
42:55
Speaker 1: I suspect the camera public servants aren't living in Canberra
42:58
Speaker 1: when they're working from home now, But not if you're
43:01
Speaker 1: in the real economy, not if you're in the jobs
43:02
Speaker 1: at drive, you know, retail or transport of those things.
43:07
Speaker 1: This was picked up by Chris Mins, new Southwest premier.
43:10
Speaker 1: Have listen.
43:11
Speaker 19: It's four hundred thousand public servants in the state. Most
43:15
Speaker 19: of them are on the front lines. They don't have
43:17
Speaker 19: an option to work from home. Those that do, we're
43:20
Speaker 19: trying to get back into the workplace and there's a
43:22
Speaker 19: couple of reasons for it. Firstly, a sense of shared
43:26
Speaker 19: mission in the public service. And secondly, the vital and
43:30
Speaker 19: absolutely necessary role that older employees play in mentoring young
43:36
Speaker 19: people into the workplace.
43:39
Speaker 1: A supreme common sense from Chris means. And yet again
43:43
Speaker 1: he's just highlighting where these labor leaders on the right,
43:46
Speaker 1: and I think Roger Cook's an example, mal Anouskis is
43:50
Speaker 1: an example in South Australia are cementing themselves into government
43:54
Speaker 1: with common sense policies and the blow from the left
43:58
Speaker 1: faction in Cambridge just doesn't get it. I think that's right.
44:00
Speaker 18: I mean, I think there is an argument that managers
44:03
Speaker 18: want to be able to supervise their staff. Obviously it's
44:05
Speaker 18: much much harder to do if they're at home, you know.
44:08
Speaker 18: And like I said earlier, I mean for some employees
44:10
Speaker 18: it might suit them to work from hooning. For others
44:12
Speaker 18: and probably the most, you know, the majority of them,
44:15
Speaker 18: it does not. So, you know, I think the men's
44:18
Speaker 18: approach it's certainly good retail politics. But as for the economics,
44:21
Speaker 18: I think the jury is still out. I would say, all.
44:23
Speaker 1: Right, thank you very much, I enjoy lit budget right now.
44:25
Speaker 1: You think labor would have got the memo that it's
44:28
Speaker 1: not business as usual under Donald Trump when it comes
44:30
Speaker 1: to defense spending, but apparently not. Richard Miles is now
44:33
Speaker 1: confirmed that LABEL will stick to its current funding trajectory.
44:37
Speaker 1: In tonight's budget, I only bringing forward one billion dollars
44:40
Speaker 1: for submarines, and that's more an acknowledgment of a short
44:43
Speaker 1: fall than an actual funding boost. Joining me now to
44:46
Speaker 1: discuss this in detailed director as Strategic Analysis Australia Michael Schubridge, Michael,
44:51
Speaker 1: thank you for your time. You know I'm going to
44:53
Speaker 1: go straight to the defense papers tonight. I want to
44:56
Speaker 1: look carefully at them. This means with the announcement today
44:59
Speaker 1: or the confirmation today from the Defense Minister, our defense
45:02
Speaker 1: spending will stay around two point three percent of GDP,
45:05
Speaker 1: but currently we're actually under two percent. Trump's call for
45:09
Speaker 1: some nations to go as high as five percent. I
45:12
Speaker 1: know we've got a bigger commitment coming out of the UK.
45:15
Speaker 1: Are we going to get ourselves into trouble with the
45:17
Speaker 1: US using this perhaps to hit us over the head
45:20
Speaker 1: and not honor their Orcust pledge.
45:25
Speaker 13: Well, we certainly are going to be noticed by the
45:27
Speaker 13: Trump administration for not spending enough for our own security.
45:32
Speaker 13: And we only get to two point three percent under
45:34
Speaker 13: the government's plan ten years from now, so it bumps
45:38
Speaker 13: along at about two percent for the next few years.
45:41
Speaker 13: And you're right that the Miles announcement that he's got
45:45
Speaker 13: to spend a billion dollars earlier than he expected is
45:48
Speaker 13: him presenting an accounting error he's made as an acceleration.
45:54
Speaker 13: It's just he's got to pay some bills for the
45:56
Speaker 13: UCUST submarine program and missiles earlier than ext So it's
46:01
Speaker 13: a case of the more the world changes, the less
46:04
Speaker 13: the government changes its plan.
46:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, he didn't get his accounting slided hand pass you,
46:11
Speaker 1: Michael Sherbridge. Let's talk about a Teal candidate over in
46:16
Speaker 1: the Labour seat of Fremantle see currently held by Labor.
46:19
Speaker 1: But I must say, name's Kate Hewlett. She ran at
46:23
Speaker 1: the state level, she got quite a significant vote. She's
46:26
Speaker 1: now going to run at a federal level. She says
46:29
Speaker 1: that if elected, Sheila Poe's Orcus Now in the seat
46:33
Speaker 1: of Fremantle. We're talking about the Henderson Base where more
46:35
Speaker 1: than a ten billion will be spent developing and expanding
46:39
Speaker 1: the shipyards there. Jobs, thousands of jobs will be created
46:44
Speaker 1: and it'll make WA the second last largest defense industry
46:48
Speaker 1: behind mining. Now, as I said, she was popular at
46:52
Speaker 1: a state level. So in the likelihood of a hung
46:55
Speaker 1: parliament and the Teals are kingmakers, how concerning would this
46:59
Speaker 1: be if she was elected?
47:04
Speaker 13: Well, how bizarre is it that a candidate who is
47:07
Speaker 13: opposing national security investments ones in her.
47:11
Speaker 6: Electorate might be elected.
47:13
Speaker 13: It tells you what a failure there has been from
47:17
Speaker 13: the government to communicate the state of our security. And
47:21
Speaker 13: who could blame people discounting our national security when the
47:26
Speaker 13: government just recently told everybody having Chinese warships sale around
47:30
Speaker 13: our country was no problem. So it is a problem,
47:34
Speaker 13: but it's a failure of leadership from the government to
47:37
Speaker 13: be honest and compelling about our security.
47:42
Speaker 1: Michael the University of Queensland today I read the first
47:45
Speaker 1: in the state to dump one of the controversial Beijing
47:48
Speaker 1: back confucious institutes. Ostensibly we know these are Chinese education facilities.
47:55
Speaker 1: They've been in the spotlight though in terms of foreign interference,
47:58
Speaker 1: foreign influence. Now good on UQ, But this then begs
48:03
Speaker 1: a question to me when I read the story, how
48:05
Speaker 1: many others are still operating out there? Do you know?
48:10
Speaker 13: Well, there were fourteen a few years ago. One of
48:13
Speaker 13: those closed down at r MIT. But the problem is
48:18
Speaker 13: when they close something else open. So r MIT open
48:22
Speaker 13: another China Australia research outfit, when they close their Confucius Institute.
48:27
Speaker 13: So I think we've got to look beyond the decision
48:30
Speaker 13: and see what happens next. And the real problem is
48:33
Speaker 13: these connections are a mainline channel for Chinese state propaganda
48:38
Speaker 13: pouring into our universities. That's something we shouldn't want.
48:44
Speaker 1: Not at all. Michael Shubrich, thank you, right, quick break
48:47
Speaker 1: after the break, and now the Green Hydrogen Project scrap
48:50
Speaker 1: So how much are the taxpayers on the hook? Here?
48:53
Speaker 1: More on that in a moment. Still ahead. Kenny Heatley,
49:02
Speaker 1: our reporter in Cydy, has done some investigative work on
49:05
Speaker 1: the real cost of living nightmare under the Albanezi government.
49:08
Speaker 1: I'll bring you those numbers pretty shocking in a moment.
49:11
Speaker 1: And first let's bring in the second panel of this evening.
49:13
Speaker 1: Senior fellow at the Mensies Research Center, of course, columnist
49:16
Speaker 1: with the Australian nic Kator and Liberal MP in South Australia,
49:20
Speaker 1: James Stevens. Gents, Welcome, Welcome on budget night. I know
49:24
Speaker 1: you're both pretty hectic with events in Canberra. Let's start
49:28
Speaker 1: with green hydrogen because the latest folly has been exposed.
49:32
Speaker 1: This is a project Trefigra, seven hundred and fifty million
49:36
Speaker 1: dollar plant in Port Pirie in South Australia that's gone
49:41
Speaker 1: the high jump. It comes after the government pledged over
49:43
Speaker 1: eight hundred million dollars in new production incentives for a
49:48
Speaker 1: green hydrogen project in WA just last week. James, I know,
49:54
Speaker 1: this is jobs in Port Pirie, supposedly, but we're throwing
49:57
Speaker 1: good money under after bad here and of course this
50:00
Speaker 1: one has now been canceled. Do you know if there's
50:03
Speaker 1: been any taxpayer funds here wasted on this project?
50:10
Speaker 15: Well, Peter, for all we know, Chris Bowen probably still
50:12
Speaker 15: wants to put money into this project despite the proponent
50:16
Speaker 15: of bandoning it. I mean, green hydrogen is evaporating before
50:20
Speaker 15: our eyes across the country and the government's just been
50:23
Speaker 15: completely pig headed here and pretending but it's got a future.
50:27
Speaker 15: The Labor Premiere in South Australia, Peter malanowskis has abandoned it.
50:31
Speaker 15: Twiggy Forest has abandoned it. All these projects are falling
50:34
Speaker 15: over and yet to labor are trying to claim apparently
50:37
Speaker 15: even in tonight's budget that there's this great, bright future
50:40
Speaker 15: for green hydrogen. They've got to stop misleading people. Just
50:43
Speaker 15: be honest and come clean.
50:44
Speaker 10: It's not going to happen. Kata.
50:48
Speaker 1: What about Zen Energy, founded by the economist Ross Gano.
50:53
Speaker 1: They've announced a fifty million dollar annual loss because, let's
50:57
Speaker 1: hear it, they were hit by a wind drought.
51:04
Speaker 11: Well, that's right, Peter, I mean reality. They collide with
51:07
Speaker 11: reality eventually. These schemes and Zen Energy was built on
51:11
Speaker 11: the idea of Ross Garano had this idea that we
51:14
Speaker 11: could go one hundred percent renewables. He also wrote in
51:18
Speaker 11: twenty twenty when he wrote a book called Superpower, which
51:21
Speaker 11: is about Australia is going to be the great green
51:23
Speaker 11: energy superpower, he said one of the great advantages was
51:26
Speaker 11: low interest rates. Well, we can see which way that went.
51:29
Speaker 11: He made the wrong bet there, and of course he
51:31
Speaker 11: signed contracts or Zen Energy has signed contracts to deliver
51:35
Speaker 11: power twenty four hours days, seven days a week to
51:37
Speaker 11: some big customers. Of course they haven't been able to
51:40
Speaker 11: do that, which meant they had to buy electricity on
51:42
Speaker 11: the spot market, and that's really driven them into a
51:47
Speaker 11: bad way. And I just don't think they're going to
51:50
Speaker 11: build batteries. But look, I mean I think, as with hydrogen,
51:53
Speaker 11: we are now discovering.
51:55
Speaker 10: That this stuff just ain't working.
51:57
Speaker 11: The economic case isn't there, or the engineering case for
52:01
Speaker 11: that matter.
52:04
Speaker 1: Well look this other story too. How far one of
52:06
Speaker 1: our most pre eminent universities has fallen, of course, the
52:10
Speaker 1: feature of university encampments in Sydney. The University of Sydney
52:15
Speaker 1: now also under fire for revelations it's launched a hiring
52:19
Speaker 1: spree aimed at quote indigenizing and decolonizing its curriculum. I mean,
52:25
Speaker 1: James Stevens, it's as if they've turned a blind eye
52:30
Speaker 1: to the vote of Australians in the voice.
52:35
Speaker 15: That's right, Peter. We're going to have a real problem
52:38
Speaker 15: on our hands in a few years time if all
52:40
Speaker 15: of our graduates moving away from traditional academic instruction to
52:45
Speaker 15: the indigenous lens of the law and accountancy. God forbid medicine.
52:50
Speaker 15: I mean, if you break your leg and you go
52:52
Speaker 15: to hospital, you just want the doctor to know how
52:55
Speaker 15: to fix it. So this is also taxpayer funds we're
52:58
Speaker 15: talking about. We're funding these institutions and this is the
53:01
Speaker 15: latest of many examples of them.
53:03
Speaker 3: Breaking that bond.
53:05
Speaker 15: Of trust that they've got with the taxpayer that they
53:07
Speaker 15: can be relied on to judiciously spend the money we're
53:10
Speaker 15: giving them. And you know, it's another reason why we've
53:13
Speaker 15: got to look very closely at and potentially reconsider just
53:17
Speaker 15: the sort of independence that they're given to spend this
53:19
Speaker 15: taxpayer funds on rubbish like this.
53:24
Speaker 1: Let's got a UK nick, I know you watch this
53:26
Speaker 1: one closely. It's been revealed that thirty eight thousand, thirty
53:30
Speaker 1: eight thousand migrants have been housed in hotels in the UK,
53:33
Speaker 1: at a cost of five and a half million pounds
53:36
Speaker 1: per day to taxpayers. There's also a whole lot of
53:39
Speaker 1: other people, sixty six thousand migrants in what's called additional
53:44
Speaker 1: dispersal accommodation, and this is large homes and flats. The
53:48
Speaker 1: cost of houses migrants is about one hundred and forty
53:50
Speaker 1: five thousand dollars a night per migrant. It's extraordinary because
53:55
Speaker 1: they haven't been able to stem the bleed on their
53:58
Speaker 1: borders and this is increasing.
54:02
Speaker 11: There's tremendous anger building in the population there, Peter, As
54:06
Speaker 11: you'd be aware, ordinary people just are sick of this stuff.
54:09
Speaker 11: They're sick of the inconvenience that comes from local hotels
54:13
Speaker 11: that used to provide facilities where you could have a
54:15
Speaker 11: wedding or you could play golf. They're now closed and
54:18
Speaker 11: they're gett even over to these migrant accommodations. This was
54:21
Speaker 11: a major cause of the riots, the very ugly riots
54:25
Speaker 11: we saw on the streets of Britain last summer in
54:28
Speaker 11: July and August, that was really driven by this issue.
54:33
Speaker 11: It wasn't much reported because of course, you know, it
54:37
Speaker 11: was all considered racist and terrible, but ordinary people in
54:41
Speaker 11: Britain feel this. It is a massive, massive issue and
54:46
Speaker 11: as you say from this latest report, is not going
54:48
Speaker 11: away anytime soon.
54:52
Speaker 1: All right, back to labor here at home, facing pressure
54:54
Speaker 1: over it's push to make us all by an electric vehicle,
54:56
Speaker 1: whether we like it or not, including its controversial view
55:00
Speaker 1: emission standards. It comes just days after the boss of
55:03
Speaker 1: Mitsubishi Australia he's called for the policy to be overhauled.
55:07
Speaker 1: He's worn the caryads are filling up with EV's, he says,
55:10
Speaker 1: no Australian wants to buy. We've also seen EV's sales
55:14
Speaker 1: stall in the US and Europe for a whole lot
55:16
Speaker 1: of reasons, including this war on Tesla over Elon Musk's
55:21
Speaker 1: role in the Trump administration, which I have to say,
55:24
Speaker 1: James Stevens just tells me that anyone who bought a
55:27
Speaker 1: Tesla back then in the United States brought it for
55:30
Speaker 1: political reasons. The reason now they want to junk it
55:33
Speaker 1: is because Elon Musk is working with Donald Trump. We've
55:38
Speaker 1: got to have some common sense here. I'll look for
55:39
Speaker 1: this policy issue actually tonight in the budget, but surely
55:43
Speaker 1: we've got to have a rapid rethink about where we're headed.
55:50
Speaker 15: Yeah, that's right, Peter, and it will be interesting to
55:52
Speaker 15: see what happens in the budget tonight. But the stuff
55:54
Speaker 15: out of the US with the Elon Musk is just ridiculous.
55:57
Speaker 15: And as you say, it goes to show that people
56:00
Speaker 15: seem to be approaching this from an ideological point of
56:03
Speaker 15: view rather than the genuine view of the consumer product.
56:07
Speaker 15: And we've got to reintroduce and re enlivened consumer choice
56:11
Speaker 15: and people making their own decisions without all of these
56:13
Speaker 15: government policies trying to direct people into making decisions that
56:17
Speaker 15: they're perfectly capable of making themselves, particularly what sort of
56:21
Speaker 15: car they want to drive.
56:24
Speaker 1: Nick, I mean two points here. I'll get your view
56:27
Speaker 1: on EVS as well, because I know you look at
56:28
Speaker 1: this closely in Europe, but also the musk role in
56:32
Speaker 1: the Trump administration at the DOGE work that he's doing.
56:36
Speaker 1: I know the Coalition has said that this will be
56:38
Speaker 1: something just center price will do if they are elected
56:42
Speaker 1: at the looming election, but honestly, I think it should
56:45
Speaker 1: be far more front and center in their election campaign,
56:48
Speaker 1: these announcements that they'll be audits of all the indigenous
56:51
Speaker 1: spending in this country, that they'll look carefully at the
56:54
Speaker 1: fact that you know, there's one hundred and twelve billion
56:56
Speaker 1: dollars in the Health Department out of camera that run
57:00
Speaker 1: on hospital that employ one doctor. I mean, we've got
57:04
Speaker 1: to be able to get savings and remove the waste
57:07
Speaker 1: out of the federal budget. But help me here, why
57:10
Speaker 1: aren't the Libs going harder on this?
57:13
Speaker 16: Oh?
57:13
Speaker 11: They have to, they have to, Peter, they have to
57:15
Speaker 11: point out some of these wasteful expenditure, which the Mentors
57:18
Speaker 11: Research Center highlighted in its recent report and I wrote
57:20
Speaker 11: about on Monday. I mean, this includes large amounts of
57:24
Speaker 11: money for anti racist dentistry and then another program which
57:28
Speaker 11: is to reinvent the tea towel than three hundred thousand
57:33
Speaker 11: gone to an Aboriginal artist for that. This is absolute nonsense.
57:36
Speaker 11: It's only the tip of the iceberg. But I think
57:39
Speaker 11: the Coalition should highlight this and say it is going
57:42
Speaker 11: to stop. Just one caveat though I put on it.
57:45
Speaker 11: I think the approach that's being taken in the United
57:48
Speaker 11: States is slash and burn approach, the closing of whole
57:51
Speaker 11: departments in the end that I don't think that's the
57:54
Speaker 11: approach we should do here. We need much more patient work,
57:57
Speaker 11: line by line auditing and then firm this from government minister,
58:01
Speaker 11: just cutting out the rubbish.
58:04
Speaker 1: There was the death of the quongos. I remember back
58:07
Speaker 1: when Tony Abbott came in. I think we got rid
58:09
Speaker 1: of about eight hundred of these almost dormant little committees
58:13
Speaker 1: and organizations that were going nowhere, but people certainly being
58:16
Speaker 1: paid in the department and elsewhere in board positions to
58:19
Speaker 1: run them. I think that's a good place to start, Gens.
58:22
Speaker 1: I'll leave it there, particularly to you, James Stevens. Enjoy
58:24
Speaker 1: budget night. We'll speak again soon. All right after the break.
58:28
Speaker 1: Despite the claims that cost of living in relief and
58:30
Speaker 1: tax cuts are there and Australians will be happy after
58:33
Speaker 1: they hear what Jim Charvis has got to say. I'm
58:36
Speaker 1: going to show you the true cost of living under
58:38
Speaker 1: alban Easy after the break, it'slice to look at the
58:41
Speaker 1: latest polling too as we wait for the Prime Minister
58:44
Speaker 1: to call the election. Welcome being not long now, we'll
58:50
Speaker 1: go live to the House of Representatives for Labour's pre
58:53
Speaker 1: election budget to be delivered his fourth by the Treasurer
58:56
Speaker 1: Jim Chalmers in a moment. But first it will be
58:59
Speaker 1: a lot of focus, not just tonight in the budget
59:02
Speaker 1: but also in the coming election campaign. On cost of
59:05
Speaker 1: living clearly front of mind for every Australian. But what
59:10
Speaker 1: are the real numbers? Our reporter Kenny Heatly's gone through
59:13
Speaker 1: the crunch points. This is what he's got to tell us.
59:17
Speaker 20: Just how much has the cost of living increased under
59:20
Speaker 20: Anthony Albanese's tenure as Prime Minister. Let's start with mortgage repayments.
59:25
Speaker 20: The RBA has raised the cash rate twelve times since
59:27
Speaker 20: the Labor government came to power and has cut once.
59:30
Speaker 20: In May twenty twenty two, the average mortgage size was
59:33
Speaker 20: six hundred and fifteen thousand dollars. Back then, the average
59:36
Speaker 20: variable rate was just three point four five percent, meaning
59:39
Speaker 20: the average family paid two seven hundred and fifty two
59:42
Speaker 20: dollars a month or thirty three grand a year. Fast
59:45
Speaker 20: forward to now, and the average mortgage size has increased.
59:48
Speaker 20: But here's where it hurts. The average variable interest rate
59:51
Speaker 20: in February this year was six point seventy four percent.
59:53
Speaker 20: Now the mortgage bill for an average loan is more
59:56
Speaker 20: than fifty thousand dollars a year, a fifty seven percent
59:59
Speaker 20: increase of almost nineteen thousand dollars. What about renters? Will
1:00:03
Speaker 20: rents under this government have increased thirty two percent, up
1:00:06
Speaker 20: to a national medium of six hundred and seventy five
1:00:08
Speaker 20: dollars a week. That leads to an approximate yearly increase
1:00:12
Speaker 20: of close to nine thousand dollars. When looking at electricity prices,
1:00:16
Speaker 20: the most accurate way of seeing the difference is by
1:00:18
Speaker 20: looking at the Australian Energy Regulator's default market offer price
1:00:21
Speaker 20: for New South Wales residents. As an example, in July
1:00:24
Speaker 20: twenty twenty two, the average DMO with sixteen hundred and
1:00:27
Speaker 20: seventy five dollars. Right now it's over two thousand dollars,
1:00:31
Speaker 20: an increase of three hundred and fifty five dollars a year,
1:00:34
Speaker 20: but the three hundred dollars a year energy rebates have
1:00:37
Speaker 20: slashed that increase to fifty four dollars now. The new
1:00:41
Speaker 20: average DMO for New South Wales on July one, however,
1:00:44
Speaker 20: includes an expected eight point nine percent increase, meaning your
1:00:47
Speaker 20: electricity bill will jump five hundred and thirty five dollars.
1:00:51
Speaker 20: Labor announced an extension of the energy rebate for another
1:00:54
Speaker 20: six months until January next year, bringing that figure down
1:00:58
Speaker 20: one hundred and fifty dollars. Secret Shopping by News Corps
1:01:02
Speaker 20: shows a basket of twenty nine items cost an average
1:01:05
Speaker 20: thirty two percent more at the checkout. That's an extra
1:01:07
Speaker 20: three thousand dollars a year for a typical family supermarket
1:01:10
Speaker 20: shop now.
1:01:11
Speaker 6: According to our.
1:01:12
Speaker 20: Figures just for these categories, for a family with an
1:01:14
Speaker 20: average Australian mortgage, earning an average national income with one
1:01:18
Speaker 20: child in daycare, the cost of essentials has increased by
1:01:22
Speaker 20: approximately twenty four thousand dollars a year during the Albanese
1:01:25
Speaker 20: government's first term in office, and it has far outpaced
1:01:29
Speaker 20: wage growth. The approximate net cost of living is eighty
1:01:33
Speaker 20: three hundred dollars. Now, if you factor in the extra
1:01:37
Speaker 20: income tax that family is now paying, it's more than
1:01:40
Speaker 20: ten six hundred dollars. That is roughly how much the
1:01:44
Speaker 20: average Australian family is in the red since Labor was elected.
1:01:47
Speaker 20: And this is why the cost of living far outweighs
1:01:51
Speaker 20: any other issue when voters go to the polls in May.
1:01:56
Speaker 1: All right, when Kenny was they're talking about energy, what
1:01:59
Speaker 1: was pretty good was from Kenny he was talking about
1:02:01
Speaker 1: a DMO. That's a default market offer, it's the base
1:02:04
Speaker 1: rate of energy pricing. Let's bring you know someone who
1:02:08
Speaker 1: will break down the budget the implications of what you
1:02:10
Speaker 1: just saw there from Kenny Heatley on cost of living
1:02:13
Speaker 1: and put it into some sort of election state of play.
1:02:16
Speaker 1: And that's my next guest, Redbridge director cost Samarus, because
1:02:21
Speaker 1: you put it all together there, because people aren't just
1:02:23
Speaker 1: a mortgage, people aren't just what they pay at the supermarket.
1:02:27
Speaker 1: It's all of those input costs into a family. And
1:02:31
Speaker 1: it's pretty cook, right, it's pretty cook. And you and
1:02:33
Speaker 1: I are talked and you've said to me consistently it's
1:02:37
Speaker 1: cost of living and daylight. Now, is that's still the case,
1:02:41
Speaker 1: and is that consistent around the country.
1:02:44
Speaker 21: Absolutely, because although inflations dropped, prices have not gone back
1:02:48
Speaker 21: to where they used to be. So that really good
1:02:51
Speaker 21: presentation by Kenny illustrates that. So people explaining these are
1:02:56
Speaker 21: the average household households in this country an extra twenty
1:03:02
Speaker 21: to grand in addition and going ten grade into the red.
1:03:08
Speaker 21: This is a common thing that we hear from boaters
1:03:10
Speaker 21: all the time. So the budget tonight will be pitched
1:03:14
Speaker 21: towards these Austraians. But look, you know, even some of
1:03:18
Speaker 21: the stuff I've seen, they will come across as a
1:03:20
Speaker 21: bit of a band aid to a lot of these Australians.
1:03:23
Speaker 21: The only thing that's working for over right now though,
1:03:25
Speaker 21: is that you know, for the last three to four
1:03:28
Speaker 21: weeks has only been one team on the political in
1:03:30
Speaker 21: the political arena that he's been talking about this problem,
1:03:35
Speaker 21: and absent from the conversation has been the Coalition. So
1:03:38
Speaker 21: I think come Thurst Day, when Dutton has his opportunity
1:03:42
Speaker 21: to reply to the budget, I think that will be
1:03:45
Speaker 21: in a very important night and kick off with their campaign.
1:03:51
Speaker 1: So just on that point, I'll come to that in
1:03:53
Speaker 1: a minute. Labor today in question time you can see
1:03:56
Speaker 1: them trying out as they always do the lines tonight
1:04:00
Speaker 1: for a bit of line and length. This afternoon they
1:04:03
Speaker 1: were saying, you know, we've turned the corner. Do you
1:04:06
Speaker 1: think Australians trust them given all the broken promises from
1:04:10
Speaker 1: last election that when Labor says we've turned the corner, A,
1:04:14
Speaker 1: they believe that we have and they've got trust the
1:04:15
Speaker 1: government will continue that work. But B that they're feeling
1:04:20
Speaker 1: it at home? Are they feeling that we've turned the
1:04:22
Speaker 1: corner at home?
1:04:24
Speaker 21: When we serve our strains and we ask them, do
1:04:26
Speaker 21: you think your life is going to be better off
1:04:28
Speaker 21: in the next five years or not? The majority say no,
1:04:32
Speaker 21: and that is as recent as the last couple of weeks.
1:04:37
Speaker 21: So there's significant levels of pessimism in the electorate. And
1:04:42
Speaker 21: you know, we're seeing a slight improvement within Labour's numbers
1:04:46
Speaker 21: at the moment, but it's so soft, so it won't
1:04:49
Speaker 21: take much to shift it back to where it was
1:04:52
Speaker 21: depending on what the coalition does say.
1:04:55
Speaker 1: You're saying it soft, you're saying it's soft. You mentioned
1:04:57
Speaker 1: Peter Dutton before and what he needs to do on
1:04:58
Speaker 1: Thursday night give us some clarity. I mean the society
1:05:02
Speaker 1: that he has to have a shopping list of twenty
1:05:05
Speaker 1: five policies. I don't buy that either, you'd three or
1:05:07
Speaker 1: four strong emblematic messages to cut through. Where does he need.
1:05:12
Speaker 21: To focus the economy? Number one, two and three. And
1:05:16
Speaker 21: there has to be, as you rightly point out, something
1:05:19
Speaker 21: that's going to be structurally significant, and it's a group
1:05:25
Speaker 21: of policies. Doesn't have to be ten or twelve, but
1:05:29
Speaker 21: policies that capture the hearts and minds of these voters
1:05:31
Speaker 21: and they think, well, hang on, he's got a few
1:05:34
Speaker 21: ideas here that might actually change the game for me
1:05:38
Speaker 21: in the space of or what I might say that
1:05:40
Speaker 21: the College has already embarked on, which is the taken
1:05:43
Speaker 21: on Colson Wilworth, which at the moment I'd say they've
1:05:46
Speaker 21: not actually spent a lot of time on, but they
1:05:48
Speaker 21: should because that's where exactly the Australian public that we're
1:05:51
Speaker 21: talking about wants the political class to go. They want
1:05:54
Speaker 21: to basically see evidence that someone's willing to come into
1:05:58
Speaker 21: their corner and help them deal with what they think
1:06:01
Speaker 21: is a structural problem that is stacked against them.
1:06:07
Speaker 1: What about issues like migration, I mean, the Coalition talked
1:06:10
Speaker 1: about it for a while. It seems to have gone quiet.
1:06:13
Speaker 1: I'd have to say even over the weekend there were
1:06:15
Speaker 1: some mixed messages. You and I both know labor. It's
1:06:19
Speaker 1: not a place that labor can go in terms of
1:06:22
Speaker 1: cutting migration numbers. It will cause a war inside labor.
1:06:25
Speaker 1: It will certainly calls a war with the Greens. What
1:06:28
Speaker 1: do you think about that as an issue?
1:06:31
Speaker 21: Yeah, so if the Coalition go there, they will I
1:06:33
Speaker 21: think be quite strategic about it, and we could see
1:06:36
Speaker 21: some evidence of that with regards to their posturing around
1:06:39
Speaker 21: these student university caps. So they are very careful not
1:06:44
Speaker 21: to put offside the Indian and Chinese diaspers in this country.
1:06:49
Speaker 21: These two very significant communities are numerous in a lot
1:06:52
Speaker 21: of marginal seats now and a lot of these and
1:06:55
Speaker 21: within these communities, a lot of these individuals view the
1:06:58
Speaker 21: current migration settings, particularly with in regards to overseas students,
1:07:03
Speaker 21: as a way of bringing family over here. So we'll
1:07:07
Speaker 21: the coalition say, well, we'll put a cap on it,
1:07:10
Speaker 21: but exclude these two communities. Look, that's strategically very smart
1:07:16
Speaker 21: and probably from a policy perspective also very clever.
1:07:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, you make the point. You're right, you know, the
1:07:23
Speaker 1: seats that the coalition is more likely than not to
1:07:26
Speaker 1: win an election on Now are the seats where you
1:07:29
Speaker 1: get the diaspora populations more than ever before. Hey give
1:07:32
Speaker 1: me you'll read. You don't plenty of campaigns on the
1:07:35
Speaker 1: likely timing now for the PM to call it. We
1:07:38
Speaker 1: know he's got to have a minimum of thirty three
1:07:40
Speaker 1: day campaign. There's talk he's going to go long. It
1:07:43
Speaker 1: puts the Coalition financially, I think under a bit of pressure.
1:07:46
Speaker 1: But I know Elbow thinks more elbow is a good thing.
1:07:49
Speaker 1: We're seeing consistently that the more Elbow we get, the
1:07:52
Speaker 1: more people have walked away from him. So does he
1:07:54
Speaker 1: strike right after budget night? And we know there's talk
1:07:58
Speaker 1: that he may call it on Thursday full Friday to
1:08:02
Speaker 1: new to the Dutton speech or is it going to
1:08:04
Speaker 1: give it a week or so to sell the budget?
1:08:08
Speaker 21: Two thoughts about that, right, So, yes, you need some
1:08:10
Speaker 21: tactical advantage in nullifying Dutton's ability to respond, But at
1:08:15
Speaker 21: the end of the day, Duntin will have an ability
1:08:17
Speaker 21: to respond by spending millions on his campaign with his narrative.
1:08:21
Speaker 21: So it's kind of like a bit of a cheap
1:08:23
Speaker 21: shot that doesn't really work. Really, Wait, for a week
1:08:27
Speaker 21: to sell it. That makes more strategic sense to me.
1:08:31
Speaker 21: So you spend a better week selling the budget, but
1:08:33
Speaker 21: again getting cuffed through in today's fragmented media market about
1:08:38
Speaker 21: a budget which most people are not going to pay
1:08:40
Speaker 21: much attention to because they think it's just a bunch
1:08:43
Speaker 21: of band aids. I don't see the political advantage. So look,
1:08:48
Speaker 21: I still think he might call it this Sunday for
1:08:52
Speaker 21: obviously the first weekend of May. That's where I think
1:08:55
Speaker 21: we're going to head into the following weekend. I think
1:08:59
Speaker 21: it's from my collection, Mother's Day weekend, so you might
1:09:02
Speaker 21: try to avoid that. I think it's the first weekend mate.
1:09:07
Speaker 1: And just quickly on the tears. We've talked a lot
1:09:09
Speaker 1: about the Greens, but the tears. Is there sort of
1:09:12
Speaker 1: petrol coming out of their tank? Are we're seeing the
1:09:14
Speaker 1: sort of the love affair drop away or are they
1:09:17
Speaker 1: likely to pick up more seats?
1:09:20
Speaker 21: There is a possibility that one or two of them
1:09:23
Speaker 21: lose their seats and then one or two of them win,
1:09:25
Speaker 21: So you know, seat like Bradfield falling to an independent
1:09:30
Speaker 21: or and the flip side to that is a Goldstein
1:09:34
Speaker 21: or curtain for going back to the Coalition. Soon or later,
1:09:38
Speaker 21: some of these seats will recalibrate and will fall back
1:09:41
Speaker 21: to the Coalition. Not all of them, though, so we
1:09:43
Speaker 21: are still seeing a seismic change in the way people
1:09:46
Speaker 21: are voting. Inner, urban, wealthy, highly educated electorates moving to
1:09:51
Speaker 21: the to the left, and out of urban regional electrics
1:09:54
Speaker 21: move to the right.
1:09:57
Speaker 1: I know my people love my chats with you, because
1:10:00
Speaker 1: so once we're into the election proper, I'm sure we're
1:10:02
Speaker 1: going to talk gofen taking in time Tonight after the break,
1:10:06
Speaker 1: we'll go live to the House of Representatives. The Treasurer's
1:10:09
Speaker 1: fourth budget speech in the term of the Albertesi government