Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Post Convert Offering and Other Stuff Discussion
Transcript
- 0:06This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 0:10Where we just basically come your phone be seamless
- 0:14regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 0:16know that it's connected by satellite.
- 0:21Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
- 0:28Hey everyone, thanks for going in.
- 0:30I figured I'd host his face after this converval note
- 0:34offering. I know people have some
- 0:37questions and they're wondering, you know, why the company raised
- 0:41this this amount of capital so quickly.
- 0:43And so we just wanted to share some thoughts about it and also
- 0:47talk about a few other things that have been happening,
- 0:50different news. And and yeah, just some review
- 0:55some expectations for the coming weeks and months, which I think
- 0:59as I've mentioned before, we've got a really bullish set up any
- 1:03into end of year just giving all the catalysts that are coming
- 1:05out. But first and foremost let's
- 1:07talk about the convert. You know, the company upsized
- 1:11what was originally an $850 million convert to a billion
- 1:14dollars and with the over allotment auction which the
- 1:18banks can exercise that would add another $150 million.
- 1:22So $1.15 billion convert offering, which is crazy to
- 1:27think about. If you go back to May of 2024
- 1:35now the company has about 2.65 billion of pro forma and cash
- 1:40for as of September 30th. That's essentially 3 to 4 market
- 1:44caps of where I used to used to be a little over a a year and a
- 1:48half ago or under a year and a half ago, which is it's kind of
- 1:51crazy to fathom. But obviously, you know, the
- 1:54company's made a ton of progress since then and that's why the
- 1:57market is, is valuing it at its current market cap.
- 2:01Just, you know, that the, the company enormous opportunities
- 2:06in front of it. The market is discounting for
- 2:08it. And so since May, obviously, you
- 2:11know, we've launched 5 block 5 of the block 1 Bluebirds.
- 2:14We've signed Verizon. We've yeah, I mean, there's
- 2:18actually, I won't just, I won't go into the list.
- 2:20There's just too many things to cover.
- 2:21But but yeah, it's yesterday. I'm sorry.
- 2:25This past week you know they they priced the billion dollar
- 2:27convertible and and now we've got $2.6 billion of performing
- 2:32cash, which is pretty crazy. The company did change its
- 2:36language and in terms of the corporate uses for this money.
- 2:41And so I think as we've you know highlighted on Twitter
- 2:46specifically they talked about adding incremental strategic
- 2:49markets. And so I think one way to read
- 2:52that is they are going to go for the full 90 that like
- 2:58consolation, so not just 45 to 60, which gives them coverage of
- 3:03the primary markets, but then going for 90, which gives them
- 3:06full global coverage. That would be one way to
- 3:09interpret that language, another way to interpret the languages.
- 3:13And I assume part of the this funding is going to go towards
- 3:15some of the military awards that are upcoming, which I think the
- 3:20company is going to get. And so, so yeah, it was a, it
- 3:23was AI think if you were to talk with the company, I don't think
- 3:27they really expected to have an ATM, you know, and then this
- 3:34convert, maybe a month ago, they wouldn't have said, hey, yeah,
- 3:38we're going to put an ATM in place and raise over a billion
- 3:41dollars in a convert. But then I think just given the
- 3:44amount of opportunities that they currently have in front of
- 3:46them, they, they thought it was a good time to raise, raise
- 3:49money. And so to me, that's quite
- 3:52bullish. I think the company has
- 3:54demonstrated that when they raise capital, it's for a good
- 3:57purpose. I mean, even going back to the
- 4:00brutal $100 million raise back in January of 2024, that was to
- 4:05bridge them along with the investment, strategic investment
- 4:08from AT&T, Google, Vodafone, that was to bridge them to get
- 4:13to a dip. The announced partnership to
- 4:15Verizon, which then obviously, you know, we rated the stock
- 4:18from what was single digits at the time when they signed the
- 4:22commercial defender agreement with AT and TI got them too.
- 4:25I think it was like 5 or $6. And then Verizon signed that
- 4:29partnership where Verizon contributed their spectrum and
- 4:33was working, decided to work closely with AT&T to roll out
- 4:36the service. That's what we rated the stock
- 4:39to all the way as high as, you know, 39 that summer.
- 4:42And you know, it's been since that it's been just gangbusters.
- 4:47But anyway, in regards to this convertible, I know there's been
- 4:50some questions about what this instrument means.
- 4:53And interestingly, you know, so just going through the terms,
- 4:58the conversion premium was 22 1/2%.
- 5:00So the convertible bond can go from a debt instrument into
- 5:05equity at $96.30 or higher, you know, in case an investor
- 5:11chooses to convert it. And this instrument
- 5:13interestingly has a 10 year maturity.
- 5:16And so typically when you see convertible debt deals, they
- 5:21usually have a five to seven-year maturity.
- 5:23I don't think I've ever seen one with 10 years.
- 5:25And so I think that's a testament to how credit
- 5:30investors see the company and its prospects that they're
- 5:32willing to basically lend 10 year paper to the company.
- 5:36And so the let's see, going back to the terms though, as I
- 5:42mentioned before, 22 1/2% conversion premium.
- 5:44And then I think the coupon, I think it was like 2 and a
- 5:48quarter. I have to go back and and look
- 5:51on that. But yeah, very low interest
- 5:53rate. And obviously a decent amount of
- 5:56the convertible investors who take the paper are arbitragers.
- 6:00And So what they'll do is they'll buy to convert and then
- 6:03the convert has an underlying delta related to the embedded
- 6:06warrant that's in the in the bond.
- 6:08And so they'll short stock against it to get henched.
- 6:11And what they'll do is they'll monetize volatile use over time,
- 6:15they'll, they'll trade deltas. So, you know, as the stock goes
- 6:18up, they'll short stock, it's stock goes down, they'll buy
- 6:21back stock. And in essence, they're they're
- 6:23monetizing volatility, which is why convertible bond increments
- 6:27are interesting for companies with high, high level volatility
- 6:30because you can get essentially, you know, lower interest rate
- 6:35debt at it and a higher conversion premium, you know,
- 6:40lower dilution from investors who are interested in in having
- 6:45that type of feature where there is, you know, the underlying
- 6:48warrant and they can monetize that over time.
- 6:50But anyway, but yeah, from what I understand, I mean, obviously
- 6:54the deal was upside from 8:50 to a billion.
- 6:57And so there was a lot of demand there.
- 7:00There was long only demand meeting fundamental investors
- 7:04who actually like the credit and the fundamental story and they
- 7:07just want to own the bond out, right.
- 7:08And then of course you've got the commodity arbitragers who
- 7:12yesterday, you know, they, they probably hedged some decent
- 7:15portion of the of their alignment and they're probably
- 7:17doing so to an extent today. And so you're going to see some
- 7:21period of you know, digestion from hedging for the next, you
- 7:25know, call it handful days, maybe 3 days.
- 7:29But I think it's interesting to note that the company has kind
- 7:33of changed their approach to these fundraising events.
- 7:37And so I think, you know, traditionally companies,
- 7:41especially you see this in biotech where the companies will
- 7:44announce a positive, you know, Phase 1 result or Phase 2 result
- 7:48or, or they might, you know, they might get some type of
- 7:51approvals and then they'll raise off the back of that.
- 7:54You know, the stock will go up and then and then they'll,
- 7:57they'll go out with the market offering price at some discount
- 8:00to where the stock was trading and then and then go from there.
- 8:05But I think in the company's history, they've started to
- 8:08realize that it's best to raise capital and then have positive
- 8:13events come after it. And so, you know, a key example
- 8:16that was when they put in the $800 million ATMI think it was
- 8:21at the beginning was at October 7th or so.
- 8:24They put that in place and you know, obviously the market kind
- 8:27of Pooh poohed on that to a degree was down just a few
- 8:29percent, which I think, you know, going back in history, the
- 8:34company typically has been somewhat punished for those
- 8:36things. But then as a company is
- 8:38executed and we've reached this level of maturity, we're about
- 8:41to roll out commercial service. I think now the, you know,
- 8:45investors view the company is being goods to root capital.
- 8:48And that's, you know, we're we're along the cusp of
- 8:51operationalization and and the capital be used, you know, in a,
- 8:58in a creative way, right. So Fast forward, you know, to
- 9:02the ATM back on October 7th, you know, the stock traded down.
- 9:06But then lo and behold, I mean the, the company knew this for
- 9:08quite some time, obviously, but they announced the next day the
- 9:12definitive commercial agreement, Verizon, which then causes stock
- 9:15to go up to a degree. And then after that, you know,
- 9:18then we kind of went on this, this run to 100, which is kind
- 9:21of kind of nuts. And so I think the company
- 9:25understands that and has a number of positive catalysts
- 9:30that are lined up. I don't know when they're going
- 9:32to drop and I don't know exactly what those capitals are, but I
- 9:35can, I think we can all kind of guess at what is in the realm of
- 9:39possibility. Whether you know, Bell Canada
- 9:42definitive correctional agreements in place.
- 9:45It could be, you know, some of these military awards.
- 9:50We got 8 so far and and Golden Dome.
- 9:53If we get that, I'll be the 9th. Given the shut down government,
- 9:56I don't think we're going to hear about military awards yet,
- 10:00but as soon as the lights are turned back on, those are
- 10:03probably going to be or we're probably going to start getting
- 10:06news around those. But yeah, there's a whole host
- 10:09of other potential events that could drop anytime.
- 10:14And so I think the company is very aware of that dynamic.
- 10:19And you know, that's why I posted the other day like I'm
- 10:23really bullish about this capital raise because it's
- 10:26really in my opinion is to accelerate the business to pull
- 10:28forward and production and launch of the constellation.
- 10:32And and there's also like some commercial implications of that,
- 10:37right? So one of the if you think about
- 10:40sequencing, one of the things about this consolation and
- 10:43rolling out Commercial Services that you're not going to just do
- 10:45it. You know, you're not going to go
- 10:48open up service in 10 countries all at once or 10 M and OS all
- 10:52at once. You're going to do it in a phase
- 10:53process. And what the company has talked
- 10:55about in the past is that for the carriers that are willing to
- 10:59put money up front, which is commercial prepayment,
- 11:02potentially some investment, which I think at this point
- 11:05candidly I don't need, the company needs strategic
- 11:07investment from M and OS at this point.
- 11:11I think they are looking and and this is part of the reason why
- 11:14you raise a large quantum of capital because the company
- 11:18doesn't need money. They can just go to the M and
- 11:20OS. If there was a discussion where
- 11:21the M and OS had a bit more leverage, now it's more like,
- 11:24hey, we, we have all the money we need.
- 11:26If you want priority service, meaning like if you want to come
- 11:29after, let's see AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and back to 10, then
- 11:36you're going to have to when we negotiate the, the commercial
- 11:39split, it's going to be, you know, make up the number, I
- 11:42don't know, 60% AC, 40% you right.
- 11:46And then you also the commercial prepayment needs to be $100
- 11:51million or whatever it is like prefunded revenue.
- 11:55But that's that's the beauty of raising enough money to do what
- 11:59you need to do for the next several years is that that
- 12:02negotiating leverage goes back into your favor and you have to
- 12:05give away less. And I think part of the change
- 12:08in the language of adding incremental strategic markets,
- 12:11to me that says we're thinking more broadly than just what you
- 12:16guys are or contemplating, which is like, OK, Bell Canada, it's
- 12:20most likely they'll be next, right?
- 12:21But then if you're going to expand service into incremental
- 12:25markets, part of that is you've got to spend more money to, you
- 12:27know, build out the infrastructure.
- 12:29But also in terms of coverage, you might instead of 60
- 12:33satellites being enough to cover the most, you know, commercially
- 12:39attractive markets, then perhaps you're going to 90 to cover
- 12:43things globally because some of these M and OS are willing to
- 12:46put some money up front who may not have been in that original
- 12:50group, right? And so that's where I think
- 12:53things become interesting where for example, you know, Salvia
- 12:56Telecom or Zayn or Mobily the any three of the kingdoms of
- 13:00Saudi Arabia M and OS like maybe they are going to announce a
- 13:03deal soon and part of this raises to get the consolation up
- 13:07and running and and to take on additional M and OS sooner than
- 13:11was originally planned. And so I think under that
- 13:15context, if it is to add incremental markets more rapidly
- 13:20than that means probably additional commercial definitive
- 13:24agreements are coming. And so I wouldn't be surprised
- 13:27to see those. But yeah, so I think, I think
- 13:31pulling forward, you know, raising the capital at this
- 13:35level and accelerating, you know, production and launch, I,
- 13:41I think it's quite bullish and I think people, you know, to, to
- 13:46put this in numbers, let me just go back here.
- 13:50So a billion dollar convert. We're we're going to ignore the
- 13:53over allotment option, but at a an effective conversion premium
- 14:00of 22 1/2%, which is $96.30, you divide 10 a billion dollars by
- 14:07that stock price and that gives you effective shares issued.
- 14:11If you know the convert, if the stock price trades above 9630
- 14:15and then within the timeframe of 10 years, you know people
- 14:18exercise it to convert shares that's 10.38 million shares and
- 14:24so on. Preparing that to the total
- 14:26shares outstanding of 364,000,000.
- 14:28That's effectively 2.8% solution, which is insane if you
- 14:33think about it, right, like 2.8% solution for a billion dollars
- 14:38when the entire market cap of the company in May of 2024 was
- 14:42like $700 million. So it's yeah, it's, it's, it's
- 14:49quite I, I think, I think as a shareholder to me, I was excited
- 14:55because it's like, oh, they're raising this massive quantum
- 14:57capital and they now have the full control of their destiny in
- 15:01their hands. And it's for dilution.
- 15:04That's the minimus or, you know, if the bond stays outstanding,
- 15:07it's it's 2 1/4% coupon, which is nothing, right.
- 15:11And actually, you know that from the proceeds of this offering,
- 15:15they can go invested in treasuries in it.
- 15:16And it's, it's actually the creative.
- 15:19But anyway, but yeah, I think I think this convertible deal,
- 15:23it's going to take a little bit of time for, you know, for
- 15:26shares of trade and hedgers to get hedged the current barbs.
- 15:29But then after that, as I mentioned before and I've
- 15:32written about this, we've got a feminist amount of catalogs that
- 15:36are coming up. And so today Israel, one of the,
- 15:41the officials there confirmed that it looks like BB6, which is
- 15:45in India currently and being integrated.
- 15:48It looks like that launch is going to be the first week of
- 15:50December, which I think for some people that were speculating
- 15:53whether it was like media outlets or or others who are
- 15:55kind of doing the backwards math.
- 15:57Some people were expecting perhaps late December or even as
- 16:01early or the early part of January.
- 16:05But I think today's news that BB6 will launch the first week
- 16:08of December, that might actually put it in the running for going
- 16:12first. Now FM 2 is in the final stages
- 16:18of being put together and testing or actually is probably
- 16:20going through testing right now. And it's, you've got basically a
- 16:24week left because I think the company was guiding towards
- 16:28having it shipped out to Florida before the end of the month.
- 16:30So we should get some type of press release if it's coming
- 16:34inside to announce that. But we should probably get a
- 16:36press release that FM 2 is either left or it's already
- 16:40arrived in Florida in the next few days, right.
- 16:43And so if that's the case, then doing, you know, assuming 30
- 16:48days of integration and preparation, perhaps you're
- 16:52looking at a launch sometime in in late November or or early
- 16:59December for FM 2. And so interestingly, I think
- 17:04both of those satellites have a pretty good shot of either going
- 17:06first or going at the same time. So, so it's going to be a pretty
- 17:10packed, action-packed calendar. And then of course, you know,
- 17:14we've got the quarterly results coming up, which let me just
- 17:18look here, see what Bloomberg is projecting.
- 17:21I think probably looking at November, November 14th.
- 17:28And so I think that quarterly update is going to be pretty jam
- 17:32packed full of new updates, especially given the most recent
- 17:36capital raises. I think the company is going to
- 17:37be communicating exactly what that money is being used for.
- 17:42And there's probably going to be some updates around military
- 17:44awards, additional M&O partners, a whole host of things.
- 17:50I mean, who knows, but I think in my last communications with
- 17:53the company, which was this past week, there was a very bullish
- 17:57tone about things that are kind of on the come and and you know,
- 18:03the upcoming quarter. So so yeah, I think I think
- 18:08there's a lot to look forward to.
- 18:09And as we know, you know, the stock trades quite well heading
- 18:12into these launch events. And now we've got a bookend for
- 18:16BB6 which is the first week of December and then we're going to
- 18:20have EV7 which will be sometime around that area as well.
- 18:25And so I, I do think and of course we got again the
- 18:28quarterly update November 14th. So I think the stock was setting
- 18:32up quite well and the company knows that once we've raised
- 18:35this capital, we want to have some good events come behind it
- 18:40to reward people and also conditional market that when
- 18:44they do raise capital, it's for a good reason.
- 18:45And for those who partake in the investment in the investment,
- 18:49you know, creditable, creditable investors, they know that
- 18:52there's there's positive things that are coming.
- 18:56Let's see here the other interesting thing that ends
- 19:00today actually is the comment period for AC space Mobile's US
- 19:06supplemental coverage when space application with the FCC.
- 19:09And as far as we can tell, even though the government shut down
- 19:12their comments, I don't think that by the very nature of the
- 19:17government being shut down, I don't think that affords anyone
- 19:20who wants to comment on the application additional time.
- 19:22They still have to submit their comments by then.
- 19:24And so the comment period ends today.
- 19:28And, and what that means is if anyone has any objections or, or
- 19:32wants, you know, modifications to the application, they need to
- 19:36submit those. And so far from what we can
- 19:39tell, there have been no comments, which is quite
- 19:41bullish, quite bullish, meaning perhaps competitors kind of view
- 19:46it as fait accompli and or who knows.
- 19:48I mean, maybe there will be some comments at the end of the day,
- 19:50but but I think that's quite positive.
- 19:53That's a huge catalyst, right? So once comment period ends, the
- 19:56FCC is going to take a look. And as we know with this, with
- 19:59this, with this FCC who is supremely focused on space and
- 20:05being competitive against China, I think the US commercial
- 20:10application. Sorry, the the the commercial
- 20:14application where U.S. market access, I think that's going to
- 20:16get approved within this quarter.
- 20:19And so whether that happens in a few weeks or I forget exactly
- 20:24that the process in terms of how many days once Comet paired
- 20:27ends, how long it takes the FCC to approve the application.
- 20:29But I think as we've seen this FCC is not operating like the
- 20:35previous bureaucracies they're moving and what I would call
- 20:39warp seed. So after come at very end today,
- 20:41who knows, we might get approval sooner than people think.
- 20:46And so that's something to keep an eye out for.
- 20:48And let's see. Oh, I, I guess the other,
- 20:52another thing that happened today, which I didn't put on my
- 20:55notes is that B Riley upgraded their price target for AST.
- 20:59They upgraded it to I think $95 a share from 60.
- 21:04And in particular, B Riley is thinking about it the right way,
- 21:08which is that the company raised a large quantum of capital over
- 21:12a billion dollars that's mildly dilutive and is is very cheap.
- 21:19And they're doing that to accelerate pulling for the
- 21:22deployment of the full constellation, not just the 60
- 21:26satellites for key markets, but 90 satellites for full global
- 21:30coverage. So they view that as bullish,
- 21:32which I do too. And so I raised their price
- 21:36target today. I did post, I did post a tweet
- 21:39and thanks to Space Mob for getting their hands on the
- 21:42report, but you can read the entire report there.
- 21:45They go through some of the recent events and also their
- 21:50thoughts around the capital raise, which I think is right.
- 21:54Again, I think going for global coverage and perhaps, you know,
- 21:58having this additional money to start working on the Block 2
- 22:02midday and Bluebirds also pre funding.
- 22:04So the CapEx needed for some of these military contracts.
- 22:06I mean, it's, it's, it's always good to have more capital.
- 22:10And I, I've said this before, you know, now that the company
- 22:14is well over 20, six, $27 billion in market cap, it
- 22:19doesn't make sense to run this thing like a startup where
- 22:23you're counting your pennies and you're going to run at bare
- 22:26minimum cash, like two $300 million, you're going to build a
- 22:29war chest. You build a war chest because
- 22:31you have the market cap to do so and the access to credit.
- 22:36And so by having $2.6 billion and I think they've got, was it
- 22:43four, no, four or five, sorry, five.
- 22:45I think it's like 535 hundred and $30 million left on the ATM.
- 22:49So let's say Max liquidity of over $3 billion.
- 22:53That's how you run a large company that is focused on
- 22:57executing an opportunity. It gives you the ability to use
- 23:01cash offensively, right? So whether it's procuring
- 23:04materials, hiring additional, you know, shifts to build
- 23:09satellites, also procuring additional factory space.
- 23:12I mean, one of the things that the company discussed in the
- 23:15last quarterly update is, and that was a surprise, everyone is
- 23:17that, Oh yeah, we can go above 6 months or sorry, 6 satellites
- 23:22per month production, we can go to 12.
- 23:24And then it was hinted that perhaps, you know, the military
- 23:28may want to have some of their own Bluebirds.
- 23:31And so maybe that's why you would take production even
- 23:33higher. So I think it's important the
- 23:36people recognize especially, you know, when this convert offering
- 23:40was announced, you saw a number of retail investors say, well,
- 23:44why do they need this money? I can't stand this, you know,
- 23:46why they have to raise money. Look, if you don't trust
- 23:50management, then you shouldn't be you shouldn't be investing in
- 23:52this company. But I think more importantly,
- 23:55you know, it's not as if, as as we've discussed before, Abell
- 23:59owns, you know, plus 70 million shares of Class C shares.
- 24:04Yes, they're super voting shares, but every offering or
- 24:07capital raise they do, that's equity.
- 24:10It dilutes him economically too, right.
- 24:11So he's he's the ultimate owner operator.
- 24:14I mean, just in the last proxy, there's several else who pointed
- 24:18out like he continues since the beginning, you could just draw
- 24:21A0 salary. He doesn't get any stock awards.
- 24:25He doesn't get any bonuses. His his entire economic, you
- 24:29know, incentive and worth is just through ownership and Class
- 24:32C shares. And so when they raise money,
- 24:34they do it for a purpose. And I think going back to this,
- 24:40this convert, you know, they, they, they see a multitude of
- 24:46opportunities and and so having the cash there is an offensive
- 24:50weapon. I think is, is important versus
- 24:53I mean, just going back to 2024 during the lean years when the
- 24:56company had $100 million or $200 million of cash on the balance
- 25:00sheet, They were restricted to what they could do and
- 25:04everything they did had to be successful and there's no room
- 25:08for error. Whereas now they can they can do
- 25:11things faster and they can get to scale quicker.
- 25:16And so having that money, I think, you know, changes the
- 25:19game for the company. And also if you go to M and OS
- 25:23regulators, governments and you're able to say, yeah, we're,
- 25:27we're a $30 billion enterprise and we've got $3 billion of
- 25:31liquidity. And that gives, you know, your
- 25:34counterparties a lot of confidence that you have the
- 25:36ability to get to the finish line.
- 25:39And so I think they're kind of, you know, if you were to look at
- 25:44AST Space mobile today with 3 billion of total liquidity
- 25:48versus, you know, if the, it's a company that just had $200
- 25:51million, then people would heavily discount the stock that,
- 25:55you know, I don't think the company's going to get piece
- 25:57together the funding to get commercial service up.
- 26:00But, but now that equation is different today and the
- 26:04company's been rewarded for that.
- 26:05So I, I think it's important people recognize that even when
- 26:08the company's raising money, they're doing it for a good
- 26:10reason. And importantly, they're going
- 26:13to keep a minimum cash balance, which is going to be pretty
- 26:16hefty because you never know, one day Legato might come up
- 26:21again and you want to be able to pull the trigger.
- 26:24And by having cash in ham, you can do that more quickly versus
- 26:27having to go to credit investors and putting together an SPV.
- 26:31And then, you know, getting getting a number of of banks
- 26:35lined up and also their stuff, right, Like you can move more
- 26:37quickly, which which I think as an investor you want the
- 26:41community to have that strategic flexibility anyway.
- 26:45But yeah, moving on, AT&T yesterday reported earnings.
- 26:48I think it's interesting. And this is kind of the key take
- 26:51away is that while AT&T and T-Mobile today didn't, you know,
- 26:57go out of the way to talk about direct to device, it was like
- 27:02topic du jour in Q&A. So AT&T, you know, John Stinky
- 27:06got asked about what they're doing around direct, direct
- 27:10advice and he, I, I tweeted about it, but he was very
- 27:13complimentary of AC space Mobile and how the service is going to
- 27:18help them to better serve customers.
- 27:21And then today T-Mobile had their conference call, which was
- 27:25quite funny to listen to. Of course, they were asked about
- 27:28direct advice and they, they claimed that they Co invented
- 27:33direct advice with SpaceX. So it's always fun to see their
- 27:38marketing hats on where they, they made these like bold claims
- 27:40that they did it, they they invented the category and that
- 27:43there are there first, which to be candid, like they've rolled
- 27:46out the service first, our first commercial service, which you
- 27:49know, obviously has, has a lot of areas of improvement to go.
- 27:53But as we've discussed in the past, you know, Starlink is
- 27:56going to get to a great service and AST as well.
- 27:59And, and it's going to be a duopoly.
- 28:01And that's, it's a matter of how many M and OS can you sign up
- 28:05and scale the business. I think architecturally, you
- 28:08know, Starlink, they're, they're maybe they'll fix this in our
- 28:11next generation of satellites, but technology there is a
- 28:14disadvantage. But eventually they'll get to
- 28:16something that's pretty decent and that's OK.
- 28:18Like I think having two providers in a, in a market
- 28:23that's serving what 6 billion subscribers globally, that's, I
- 28:28think that's a pretty good end state.
- 28:30And if you've got the best technology and you've got 2/3 of
- 28:33the most profit market, that's really good.
- 28:36That's a good position. And you, yeah, you have a
- 28:39management team that's a political is, is friends with
- 28:42everyone. It's just there to provide
- 28:44service. They're not there to take the
- 28:46limelight. They're providing true broadband
- 28:49on a wholesale basis where in AT&T or Verizon, they can pretty
- 28:52much label it themselves where they don't need to talk about AC
- 28:55space mobile, like that's where you want to be versus I think
- 28:59T-Mobile, they've kind of made the fast and bargain and sold
- 29:02their souls. And we'll see ultimately how
- 29:05that relationship works out over time.
- 29:07But but yeah, the key takeaways is that it's kind of getting
- 29:11more mindshare or not kind of it is getting more mindshare with
- 29:14institutional investors where on all these conference calls,
- 29:18investors are asking some of the most elementary questions about,
- 29:22hey, is directed device going to be competitive and take over
- 29:25terrestrial networks, which it's not.
- 29:28But then also, you know, how's this going to drive customer
- 29:32satisfaction adoption, you know, ARPU, all that stuff like that's
- 29:36starting to come out. So I think it's, it's important
- 29:38to note because the the team T investors at this point, it's
- 29:43pretty much unavoidable. Like they've got to know about
- 29:46AST Space mobile, they've got to know about Starling because it's
- 29:48going to become a much bigger part of the wireless industry.
- 29:54And for any smart investors, you know, there's only one public
- 29:58company to play way to play it, which is AST.
- 30:01So on the flip side, I, I did listen to the Iridium conference
- 30:06call today and boy, that that's just, they're just in a really
- 30:10tough spot. I think going back to 2021-2022,
- 30:17Matt Desh, who's the CEO of Iridium, he used to kind of make
- 30:21a joke about AST space mobile and, and kind of Pooh Pooh the
- 30:24whole idea of direct advice. But now with AST Space mobile
- 30:27and, and, and Starlink, especially after they purchased
- 30:31Echostar Spectrum, I mean, you guys have seen it.
- 30:34Iridium stock price has gone from in the 30s to now at 18.
- 30:38And it's off today because some of the comments he made, but
- 30:42they're just in a really tough spot because like on the one
- 30:44hand, Iridium has been a successful business.
- 30:48They've generated a ton of free cash flow.
- 30:51They're expected to do, I think like 300 million of free cash
- 30:53flow this year. But the issue for them is that
- 30:56they, they kind of went into in financial engineering land.
- 31:01And so once they once the company came out of bankruptcy
- 31:04and had done well and got military contracts with which
- 31:07save them, you know, if you look at their total, I think
- 31:12subscribers, it's like maybe a million globally or 1.1 million.
- 31:17That's really low. And of course, they're charging
- 31:19premium prices for anywhere connectivity, but once direct to
- 31:23device really gets cooking and now you've got, you know, AC
- 31:28space mobile and Starlink that are that are going to
- 31:31consolidate MSS spectrum. So even beyond terrestrial
- 31:34coverage or terrestrial spectrum, they're going to
- 31:37utilize satellite spectrum. Where does that put Iridium?
- 31:40And so these guys were, you know, they pay a pretty big
- 31:43dividend. They, they have a huge share
- 31:45buyback program, which you know, in retrospect is going to look
- 31:50pretty stupid because they, you know, they were buying bunch,
- 31:53buying back a bunch of stock in the 30s and 20s and now the
- 31:57stocks at 18. But they also took on debt to,
- 32:01to pay for those dividends and share buybacks.
- 32:04And so they've got a ton of leverage on as well.
- 32:06And I remember back in the day when Iridium I'm not back in
- 32:10days recently, like a year ago, they were touting like this
- 32:13whole CapEx holiday where hey, we're not, we don't need to
- 32:16invest in satellites. And so we're just going to turn
- 32:18into capital and shareholders. And so, yeah, they went from
- 32:23being able to fund their future and kind of pivot to now they're
- 32:27in a really tough spot, right? Because a lot of their investors
- 32:31are income oriented. They're yield guys who who want
- 32:35dividends, right? So they, if they go cut the
- 32:37dividend, then you're going to have a bunch of investors exit
- 32:40the stock, which then stock goes down.
- 32:42That limits their financial flexibility to go do stuff.
- 32:45And so they're just in a really tough place.
- 32:48You can really hear it in their Q&A where funny enough, like
- 32:53some of the analysts who are bullish on Iridium and and are
- 32:56neutral on AST were on on the Q&A.
- 32:59They were all like grasping for some level of hope or roping for
- 33:04some nugget from the company because the entire Q&A was
- 33:07focused on who can you partner with?
- 33:09What could you do strategically? Can you sell yourselves?
- 33:13If you, you know what, basically you guys don't have the
- 33:18financial wherewithal to your pivot.
- 33:20So can you get a lifeline from somebody?
- 33:23And so there were some interesting comments that mega
- 33:25constellation made, you know, I think they talked about and then
- 33:29of course, like the company's going to say this, that they're
- 33:31talking to everybody and they're going to try to potentially
- 33:35develop some type of partnership.
- 33:36And the company didn't in a full thwarted way say they were for
- 33:40sale, but they did say like, you know, if, if there is a
- 33:43shareholder maximizing alternative, then we'd we, of
- 33:46course we'd consider it, which, yeah, they have to because
- 33:48they're in a tough spot. You know, Iridium in of itself
- 33:52is, is interesting. It does have global harmonized L
- 33:56band spectrum. It's only about 8 megahertz
- 33:57wide. So I mean, that would give you
- 34:00like decent data and voice coverage.
- 34:03But beyond that it's it's, it's uses coverage like that.
- 34:07That's good. But then I think for a player
- 34:11like Starlink, if they were to consider something, it might be
- 34:15tough to just, well, I don't know, maybe Starlink could
- 34:18utilize L band spectrum. But for AST with the Block 2
- 34:22Bluebirds, guess what, we already are utilizing L band
- 34:24spectrum. That Iridium spectrum is right
- 34:27next to Legato spectrum. And so there's actually some
- 34:31interesting synergies there where you could, there's a guard
- 34:35band, which is a a little sliver of spectrum that you have to use
- 34:38to, you know, both operators basically say we're not going to
- 34:42transmit over that guard band so that there's no interference.
- 34:44But if, if legato spectrum is combined with the radium, you
- 34:48could have to utilize that guard band and just kind of combine
- 34:51the 2. So there is some interesting, so
- 34:55there is some interesting, you know, potential there.
- 34:59But at the same time, the thing for radium is that it's, it's
- 35:03kind of a, an eroding asset. And so while it does generate
- 35:07300 million of free cash flow year, how durable are the
- 35:10service revenues because they, you know, they clearly are
- 35:13losing subscribers and, and once AC Space mobile and Starlink
- 35:18really get going, you know, how, how, how much can they actually
- 35:22hold onto? And so one of the big comments
- 35:25that I thought was interesting and, and quite telling you is
- 35:27that in the, in the conference call, you know, the Radium's got
- 35:32a very predictable business, assuming, you know, some
- 35:35moderate levels of, of churn and growth.
- 35:37You know, they, they basically give long term forecasts all the
- 35:40way up to 2030, whereas today they basically pulled out
- 35:42forecast and they specifically pulled it for the fact that the
- 35:46competitive landscape is changing.
- 35:48And so so yeah, that's a pretty big, that's a pretty big
- 35:53admission for a company that originally was like direct
- 35:56advice. It's a niche area.
- 35:57It's not going to, you know, they didn't see a future in it.
- 36:00Whereas now their tone has changed where they they and
- 36:05everybody who's invested in them recognize the huge competitive
- 36:07threat it is. And then when they talk about
- 36:10positioning, they say, well, we've got a, we have unique PNT
- 36:14services we can provide the military, we are a complementary
- 36:19service to direct advice, which is regional in nature, we're
- 36:22global, which by the way, like that's actually that has changed
- 36:26because now you've got AST space mobile and installing that will
- 36:31that will be pursuing MSS spectrum.
- 36:34And so yeah, they're in a tough spot.
- 36:35But I think the reason why I brought up Iridium is that, you
- 36:38know, there's some some speculation that maybe they'll
- 36:41have to sell themselves or partner with somebody.
- 36:43But but yeah, I'm not sure if that is if that does happen, I'm
- 36:49not sure when it would happen and under what circumstances,
- 36:52because I think they're in a tough spot.
- 36:54And if you're a buyer, you get paid to wait because financially
- 37:00the company's just going to erode over time.
- 37:03But on the flip side, there could be some synergies there
- 37:07like you know, if you were, if you were a Starlink or an AST,
- 37:11you could, you could go, you could be interested for the
- 37:14spectrum and kind of harvest the business, you know, manage it
- 37:18for cash overtime. And then at the right time, you
- 37:21if your constellation's up, you switch it over and just add it
- 37:23to your portfolio spectrum. In the meantime, you could like,
- 37:27you know, you could take a decent amount of SGNA out,
- 37:29CapEx, R&D as well, because they're not from what I
- 37:32understand, just give them the financial mess that they've put
- 37:35themselves in. They're, they don't have the
- 37:38ability to afford another consolation.
- 37:40So yeah, it's a tough spot. Yeah.
- 37:46And I think the another thing I wanted to check upon is there,
- 37:48there's a information article that came out today that talks
- 37:52about how Apple and Starlake may work together.
- 37:56And I, I did get take a look at the article and I'll try to
- 38:00share it later. But I think it's important to
- 38:03note, and this is by the way, this is where the Global Star
- 38:05headlines came out of, which by the way, for those I get to a
- 38:09point like the headlines say that the company would consider
- 38:12selling it above $10 million. But the article reads that it's,
- 38:16it's actually quite bearish for Global Star.
- 38:18So if you're speculating Global Star, yeah, that that headline
- 38:23is not bullish and I'll explain why.
- 38:25But in this article today, it talked about how it's hinting
- 38:31that potentially Starlink and Apple could be working together
- 38:33where star, you know, Apple is integrating some Starlink's
- 38:37Echostar frequencies into its handset.
- 38:39And then Starlink is also in their next generation of
- 38:45satellites is going to be putting global star spectrum
- 38:47into their chips. And I think it's important to
- 38:50note that, you know, these are journalists who perhaps don't
- 38:55have off the full context or they're speculating, or maybe
- 38:57they're fed stuff. But in interestingly, AC space,
- 39:01Mobile's not mentioning the article.
- 39:02And then at the end, of course, Tim Farrar gives his little
- 39:05worthless blurb. So you can kind of tell like
- 39:08what angle the articles coming from.
- 39:10But in that article, it also talks about how Apple's
- 39:14dissatisfied with Global Star and that it's not it's it's a
- 39:17tenuous relationship. And perhaps at some point Global
- 39:20Star on its own wants to sell itself, which of course would be
- 39:23tough because Apple basically owns Global Star.
- 39:27They would have the right of first refusal unless Apple
- 39:30decided to, you know, wash their hands on the thing, which is
- 39:33possible, I guess. But you know, from my
- 39:35perspective, I think Apple's distressed investment, Global
- 39:39Star was very smart. They got a toehold and and some
- 39:44type of satellite service that's global.
- 39:47That spectrum is worthy worth, worth a decent amount of money.
- 39:50And at some point in the future they could shut down Global Star
- 39:54and then lease the spectrum out to somebody else or partner with
- 39:57someone else. So there's a whole host of
- 39:59things that Apple can do with that.
- 40:00And so there is there is quite a bit of value there.
- 40:02So I don't think I don't think for Apple Global Star is going
- 40:05to be bad on us. And for Global Star investors, I
- 40:08think it's important to know, and we've talked about this
- 40:10before, you know, Apple owns basically 85% of the capacity of
- 40:13Global Star. So what you own is some type of.
- 40:18Return off of that 85% and then you get the optionality of the
- 40:21leftover 15%. I don't know, you know, what
- 40:24that 15% is worth, you know, in terms of satellite capacity, who
- 40:28do you sell that to and and what are the economics of it?
- 40:31But in the article it talks about how, as I mentioned
- 40:35before, Apple and Starlink like they're they're coordinate, you
- 40:39know, Apple's going to add Starlink's frequencies to its
- 40:41phone and and vice versa, which by the way, like that's just
- 40:45standard corporate, I mean, standard practice for the
- 40:48industry because for example, they get constellations worried
- 40:52about this before Apple is actively trying to shape the 5G
- 40:57non terrestrial network standards.
- 40:59And so in their FCC filings, they they they're trying to
- 41:03shape, for example, how Regato spectrum vice that others
- 41:08spectrum, how they're going to be incorporated into the
- 41:11standard. And that also includes Echostar
- 41:13too. So the fact that Apple's trying
- 41:15to have a hand in shaping that those standards shouldn't be a
- 41:19surprise to anyone. And they're doing that with,
- 41:22again, they're doing that with a Gatto spectrum too.
- 41:24So, you know, I could write the same article, I guess, and say
- 41:26that AST and Apple are working together, which they probably
- 41:31are, but I don't, I think AST is is a bit more of a conservative
- 41:36organization and they're not going to go float rumors to
- 41:39journalists. And I don't know for whatever
- 41:41purpose, but but yeah, Apple, I think it's important to note
- 41:46that Apple's a handset manufacturer.
- 41:47They will incorporate any service in any frequencies that
- 41:51their Aminos request of them, right?
- 41:53Because at the end of the day, the Aminos are their most
- 41:56important partners and customer. They're the ones who distribute
- 42:00handsets. They're the ones who have this,
- 42:03the terrestrial spectrum that provides service for the
- 42:05handsets. This is why Apple at all costs
- 42:08tries to avoid competing directly with their handset.
- 42:11Sorry, competing directly with M and OS because Apple meets them
- 42:15and the M and OS obviously to a degree need Apple.
- 42:18At least you know, if I, if, if Verizon or AT&T decided to drop
- 42:22Apple handsets and move to Samsung, it would be really
- 42:26tough. It would be really tough for me
- 42:28to go to, to T-Mobile, but I might have to because I
- 42:31actually, I love Apple products, right?
- 42:34And so there's this, there's this symbiotic relationship, but
- 42:37Apple also knows that they can't piss off their MNL customers.
- 42:40They could do that when iPhone was like a majority of
- 42:44smartphone sales, but that doesn't exist today.
- 42:47But it the Apple probably represents A majority or decent
- 42:50chunk of premium hand phones, premium user usage, right?
- 42:54So, but anyway, but on the other point, it's also I, I can
- 43:00guarantee you, I don't know this for sure, but I can get, well, I
- 43:03know one thing for sure, when AST.
- 43:06Space Mobile developed their ASIC and started that process
- 43:09years ago, one of the things that they've publicly said is we
- 43:13incorporated legato spectrum into that ASIC.
- 43:16Now, why would they do that? Well, because when you develop
- 43:19an ASIC, it takes many years and, and you're going to want
- 43:21that ASIC to have as much flexibility as possible to work
- 43:24across as many frequencies as possible.
- 43:28And so when AST started work on that spectrum or the the ASIC,
- 43:33not only do they incorporate all the Southerner low bands, they
- 43:35incorporated all the MSS bands as well and which included
- 43:38Legato. So when they announced the deal
- 43:41and in the last, I think it was the last quarter quarterly
- 43:45update, maybe the one before, you know, someone had asked
- 43:48about Legato and, and being able to utilize that spectrum.
- 43:51And that was like, Oh yeah, you know, years ago we, we
- 43:54incorporated Legato spectrum into the chips.
- 43:57So we can use it like it immediately, like once, once we
- 44:00get FCC approval. And of course, like, you know,
- 44:02the, the midday and Bluebirds are up like they're, they're
- 44:05going to light up that spectrum. The other thing that is
- 44:09important to know is that I, I don't know this for sure, but I
- 44:12can guarantee you that global star spectrum is incorporated
- 44:16into AST space Mobile's ASICS. The reason why that is, is that
- 44:21it doesn't really cost you much to do that.
- 44:24And you never know what the future may hold, right?
- 44:26So maybe in the future, if, if Apple and global star enters
- 44:31into some type of partnership with AST to utilize the mid band
- 44:34Bluebirds, then then they can light up that spectrum, right?
- 44:38So, and that's, that's the beauty of of the architecture of
- 44:42having large phase ray is that you can, you can serve a very
- 44:45wide bridge of frequencies. And so for the mid band, sorry,
- 44:49low band Bluebirds, that's anywhere from 600 to 900
- 44:52megahertz. For the upcoming mid band
- 44:54Bluebirds, that's 1.5 gigahertz to, in terms of what I've seen
- 44:59disclosed, as high as 2.6 gigahertz.
- 45:01And so that would encompass Global Star Legato, I mean, even
- 45:07Echostar or if Verizon buys AWS 3 spectrum, it can cover that
- 45:12too, right? So, so I think it's, it's
- 45:16important to have some context where if if a journalist writes
- 45:19an article, it's like, Oh yeah, you know, this is kind of
- 45:22typical stuff like incorporating frequencies into a chipset just
- 45:27in case for the future you're going to do that.
- 45:29And so, but going back to the whole global star point, I think
- 45:34in the article it, it talks specifically about how Apple may
- 45:38eventually pivot off the global star, which you don't honestly
- 45:41like. I don't see why they would do
- 45:43that. I think it makes sense to just
- 45:44get out of that service as a nice feature in case other
- 45:47things go down. I don't know why they would just
- 45:50kind of throw that away after making a $2 billion investment
- 45:53or how much ever it was. But I think, you know, the the
- 45:59fact that that Apple is now so focused on NTN 5G connectivity
- 46:07and shaping the standards and making sure that their phones
- 46:10are going to work with Starlink, They're going to work with ACC
- 46:12Global, They're going to work with, you know, any host number
- 46:16of you know, whether it's like Sky low or some of these other
- 46:20companies that are doing, you know, text messaging low band
- 46:23service, they're going to want to make sure their phone works
- 46:25with everything, right, Because that's at the end of the day,
- 46:27that's how you sell handsets. And so anyway, the day yeah, I
- 46:31think that's important context for people to have.
- 46:34But but yeah, there's a lot going on.
- 46:37And I think one of the one of the comments kind of
- 46:43crystallizes it that Matt Dash, the CEO of Iridium said today he
- 46:49I got to go back and look at the, maybe I'll put it out as a
- 46:51quote because it's, it's so good.
- 46:53But he specifically talks about how direct and device is
- 46:57something that they didn't foresee coming into play until
- 47:002030. No, no, 2035.
- 47:03And, and this actually mirrors his comments where he said,
- 47:07yeah, that's not an industry that's going to happen until 10
- 47:09years from now. So yeah, it actually fits 2035.
- 47:12But then he admitted today on the call that, but now it's
- 47:15something that we have to think about competitively that's going
- 47:17to happen in 2029. And you know, he's, he's saying
- 47:202029 because you, you're trying to buy as much time as you can,
- 47:23right? But that just because to show
- 47:26you, I mean, the entire industry is changing and getting
- 47:30disrupted and directed device is going to be a pretty powerful
- 47:34force. And even in T-Mobile, I mean,
- 47:37and here's another thing. When you listen to these Amido
- 47:40CE OS, whether it's Verizon, AT&T or T-Mobile, you've got to
- 47:45look at it. You have to take the comments
- 47:47with a grain of salt, right? And, and this is where Tim, Tim
- 47:50Farr better known as Dim Spacebar or some of these other
- 47:55industry guys, they read words and they, they're like, oh, that
- 47:58automatically means this or that.
- 48:00And it's like, no, you, you've got to put some context around
- 48:02it, right? And so when an MNOCEO says like,
- 48:06Oh yeah, this is good for filling gaps And, and you know,
- 48:11when when you're in a dead spot and you know, then, then this
- 48:14service makes sense. They're going to say that
- 48:16because by definition, if they say something else, that means
- 48:19that they're they're admitting that their own service is not
- 48:22good, right. And so when a company like
- 48:25Verizon goes out and says, yeah, we've got 96% coverage in the
- 48:29US, that doesn't mean 96% of the actual landmass of the US.
- 48:34It actually means like 96% of where people live and, you know,
- 48:37work. And when you actually look at
- 48:39the coverage, it's actually something more along lines of
- 48:4270% of the landmass cover. The other 30% is not.
- 48:45And so even today T-Mobile talking about their, their
- 48:50partnership with SpaceX, they say, you know, SpaceX, it's
- 48:52going to be great for with this new Echostar spectrum, it's
- 48:55going to be great for coverage when you're out of terrestrial
- 48:58coverage. And that actually is not true.
- 49:02And then they've got to talk that way because you can't
- 49:06again, you can't like expose weaknesses, right?
- 49:10That what Echostar does is it gives Starlink 100% coverage of
- 49:14the US, just like Legato gives you 100% coverage.
- 49:17And so in T-mobile's case, for them to say that it seems a bit
- 49:23defensive. And, and I think it's important,
- 49:26you know, for AT&T and Verizon, when when you hear the CEO
- 49:29speak, like you got to always look at it from their
- 49:31perspective, like this is a nice feature.
- 49:34It's going to provide better customer satisfaction.
- 49:38But by the way, our service as it stands terrestrially is
- 49:41great. It's, it's amazing.
- 49:43We have full coverage. Like rarely will there ever be a
- 49:45dropped call or, or you're in a dead spot, which we all know
- 49:48from personal experience. Like that's just not true.
- 49:50But but if you're like a dim space bar, you know, Tim Farrar,
- 49:54it's like, Oh my God, this guy said like, it's just for dead
- 49:57zones. So it's only going to be
- 49:58enforced in parks. It's like, no damn shit.
- 50:00It's it's for all the areas. It's, it's broader than that
- 50:05number one. And #2 what Legato does is it
- 50:09allows ASD space mobile to actually provide additional
- 50:12capacity for these carriers. And so it's going to overlap
- 50:16with the terrestrial network. So the the black one Bluebirds
- 50:19are going to be gap fillers and coverage.
- 50:22And then the Block 2 Bluebirds are actually going to provide
- 50:24100% Internet coverage, broadband coverage that is going
- 50:30to augment, it's going to bolster Verizon AT DS network.
- 50:33And so if you can imagine you're in an area where the coverage,
- 50:37the network's getting inundated with too much use, like maybe
- 50:39it's a beach, then you'll have the ability to switch over to,
- 50:44you know, seamlessly, hopefully, if they, if they can work out
- 50:47the, the technology, which, you know, seamless handover is, is,
- 50:50is key, right? Like that's what makes the
- 50:53service user friendly. And consumers, like consumers
- 50:57don't even the, the ideal place where you want to end up is
- 51:02where consumers have no idea if you're on threshold or satellite
- 51:05network. It just works.
- 51:07And that's, that's like the best goal for these companies.
- 51:12And so for AST, having the ability to have Legato spectrum,
- 51:17you know, 40 megahertz of uplink and downlink capacity on top of
- 51:21the terrestrial network for AT&T and Verizon, that's a really
- 51:24powerful tool, right? So if you're at a baseball game
- 51:28or if you're on the beach and there's a lot of people and the
- 51:30network's slow, your phone hopefully will have the ability
- 51:33to aggregate that additional capacity.
- 51:36And all of a sudden, like your service is better.
- 51:39You'll, you'll have as opposed to sometimes when your phone
- 51:43goes drops to 3G or whatever it is, you will actually have the
- 51:46ability to leverage both networks and get additional
- 51:50capacity. And so I think that's where
- 51:53that's like the big game changer going out beyond just additional
- 51:58supplemental coverage, but then providing additional capacity.
- 52:01And, and that 100% coverage is important as you get into other
- 52:06applications, whether it's Internet of Things, you know,
- 52:10autonomous vehicles, drones, all that stuff.
- 52:15But being able to say you have 100% coverage from satellite,
- 52:18which by the way, like with cellular, terrestrial spectrum
- 52:22and towers, that is an impossibility.
- 52:24It will never happen because you have to keep building towers and
- 52:29putting towers up in certain areas is just not economic.
- 52:32And even in cities like LA or New York, you, you know, whether
- 52:39it's geography like you, you have like a valley and mountains
- 52:42that might, you know, cut off signal.
- 52:44But then also you have, you know, structural impediments
- 52:48from a social point of view, right?
- 52:51Like people don't want towers. And so there might be parts of
- 52:54LA or the Hamptons. We always talk about the
- 52:57Hamptons because it's a wealthy enclave of Long Island, but
- 53:01there's like a whole host of dead spots in the Hamptons
- 53:04because people don't want towers in their backyard and they don't
- 53:06want it on the roof. And so satellite, especially
- 53:10using MSS spectrum, then you get 100% coverage in those areas.
- 53:14And that's where, you know, we talked about like the regulatory
- 53:18point of view for some of these services like drone delivery or
- 53:21upon this vehicles or whatever it is like those things are
- 53:24going to need a human operator to be able to turn off, have a
- 53:28kill switch at any time. And, and they'll need to be
- 53:30connected. They, they won't be fully AI
- 53:33autonomous. And so that's going to require
- 53:36connectivity. And so in those areas, satellite
- 53:39coverage is basically the only, the only game of town, right?
- 53:41So yeah, that's, that's, I think today we, we kind of, I don't
- 53:50know, actually now thinking about like today is, is pretty
- 53:52much like a Seminole event, right?
- 53:54Like you had ASD Space Mobile and in a 2 day marketed
- 53:59overnight, they were able to raise a billion dollars or
- 54:02basically $1.15 billion. You had AT&T and Verizon, sorry,
- 54:07AT&T and T-Mobile basically get fielded questions about direct
- 54:12to device and it's a key focus for people.
- 54:14You had Iridium have a conference call basically saying
- 54:17we screwed up, we should have been applying money into Rd. and
- 54:20thinking about the next thing, and we didn't.
- 54:22And so we're kind of screwed. And.
- 54:24And so we need to work with somebody if they'll have us.
- 54:29And, you know, we thought we had until 2035, but lo and behold,
- 54:32like it's coming faster than we expected.
- 54:33So yeah, it's actually just kind of thinking through what I've
- 54:39covered. Today is a pretty Seminole and
- 54:41important day. And yeah, it's.
- 54:44Maybe we'll look back on this winner's face and be like, Oh
- 54:47yeah, that that was like the point in time where things
- 54:50really started to accelerate. Like the dam broke and and
- 54:54Iridium and Global Star, Yeah. And all these legacy guys, they
- 54:59really, I mean, I guess the other I wasn't, I didn't think
- 55:03about talking about it because I really don't think about it at
- 55:05all. But earlier this week, Link,
- 55:09which is a which was an early directed device player.
- 55:13They merged with Omni Space and they're being backed by SES,
- 55:17which is a European satellite communications company.
- 55:21Pretty well capitalized actually.
- 55:24But you know, I joked that that's that's like 2 garbage
- 55:27trucks colliding because Omni space has some spectrum
- 55:32allocation in S band in different locations around the
- 55:36world. And then interestingly, Lync is
- 55:40a directed vice player. Their satellites are focused on
- 55:43low band spectrum And so combining the two, they're not
- 55:48compatible today. But eventually if Lync does, if
- 55:54they do refer to architecture satellites and I don't know you
- 55:57know, if they how long that's going to take, then perhaps they
- 56:00could utilize Omni space spectrum.
- 56:03But then if if indeed that does happen, they'll need they'll
- 56:08need to spend the CapEx to put up a consolation.
- 56:11And then on top of that they'll need M&O partners which I think
- 56:14Leak boasts that they've got 50 M&O partners today.
- 56:17However, these are small guys like, you know, little operators
- 56:22in the Cook Islands or something.
- 56:25You know, no one of consequence. But anyway, but I think there
- 56:29you you seem that that's a marriage of desperation where
- 56:33Omni space, I think have been trying to shop itself.
- 56:36There were no buyers because in essence, like what they have are
- 56:39spectrum rights. But as we all know, you can go
- 56:42to regulator and if you're not, if you don't have a plan and you
- 56:46don't have money, the spectrum rights mean nothing, right?
- 56:49And so, so, yeah, so you're seeing, I think for Omni Space
- 56:55that they probably have filled out requirements to keep a hold
- 56:58of the spectrum that they've been granted, of which, you
- 57:02know, all that stuff is going to come up for renewal.
- 57:04And so part of it is I, I am guessing, I don't know this
- 57:08because I'm not involved, but I'm guessing they merged with
- 57:12link to them be able to go to regular and say, hey, look, we
- 57:14got real satellites that we're going to put up and we're going
- 57:16to try to meet these build out requirements.
- 57:19And they're basically buying some time, right.
- 57:20So, yeah, there's a lot that has happened this past week.
- 57:24And I think the landscape has shifted and, and today you're
- 57:28seeing, I mean, it's been a slow burn, but today I think it's a
- 57:32true, the first real admission from the legacy player, which is
- 57:37already in where they just, they, they've admitted that they
- 57:42screwed up strategically and they're in a tough spot.
- 57:45And so that's why their stock is where it is.
- 57:48But that said, you know, there, there could be some future for
- 57:51them in partnership with someone.
- 57:53I just don't know who. And you know, AC could
- 57:56potentially, but I think the key thing for AC is that they've got
- 58:01bigger fish for fry. They've got an amazing
- 58:04opportunity in front of them. And so why bother at this point
- 58:08with Iridium. But you know, I think perhaps
- 58:11that there's some type of sweetheart deal in the future if
- 58:12it could make sense and I could lay out that bowl case for why
- 58:16the two together would make sense.
- 58:18But but I think also for AST, they've got the capital, they've
- 58:22got the M&O relationships, they've got the regulatory know
- 58:26how and they've got spectrum and they're they're going out to get
- 58:29more. And so I think, I think for them
- 58:33right now, there's no need to do anything strategically there.
- 58:36Anyway, I've been rambling. Let me just go through the
- 58:39comments. Let's see if there's any
- 58:44questions here. Worldwide coverage for spectrum,
- 58:51even if eight that even 8 megahertz is valuable.
- 58:54This person's talking about Legato or sorry, Iridium revenue
- 58:58share deals similar to Legato AST would allow them to compute
- 59:01it, generate value for cash flow for investors.
- 59:02Potential would win. Yeah, there could be, I mean
- 59:05there could be some potential partnership in the future where
- 59:09Legato is able to leverage AST space mobile mid end Bluebirds
- 59:17and light up their spectrum and then they can decommission their
- 59:20entire constellation and then there there's some type of
- 59:24revenue share. I mean, I think anything's
- 59:25possible. I mean, I think it's important
- 59:27to note for Iridium that they do have a, a niche business and
- 59:31it's, it's decent and the US government keeps giving them
- 59:34military contracts. I mean, I think part of it is
- 59:37they're trying to support that coming because they don't want
- 59:38it to go under, because it does serve some important
- 59:41communications roles. And if you think about the US
- 59:45government's focus on resiliency and redundancy, especially in
- 59:51contested areas where electronic warfare is going to be prevalent
- 59:54and, and perhaps, you know, there might be an adversary
- 59:57looking to take down any number of constellations for periods of
- 1:00:01time, you want to have more than less of these things going.
- 1:00:04And so I think Iridium has strategic value there.
- 1:00:06But yeah, they they could work together.
- 1:00:08Iridium could also end up working with Starlink in some
- 1:00:11capacity. I don't know how that would play
- 1:00:13out, but but yeah, it's possible.
- 1:00:17Let's see. Can you talk about the offering
- 1:00:20or have a see? Can you talk about the offering
- 1:00:23over 2 days? How does it work?
- 1:00:26Is it private? Why not capped call this time?
- 1:00:28OK, So what I meant by a two day offering is that I mentioned
- 1:00:32this in the space weekly talk, the deal with so and certain
- 1:00:38investors who are convertible bond investors were brought over
- 1:00:40the wall, meaning they got restricted.
- 1:00:42So once you get restricted, you're getting material non
- 1:00:45public information. You and your firm cannot trade
- 1:00:48on that information. And that's how it should work.
- 1:00:51And obviously sometimes like stuff gets leaked and and know
- 1:00:56some of that information might get in the market which
- 1:00:59obviously has to retail. We have no idea probably I mean
- 1:01:01most investors had no idea that this was coming, but maybe they
- 1:01:05were because of the stock traded down to a degree prior to this
- 1:01:09deal. But it was marketed for two days
- 1:01:11with convertible debt investors and then priced priced on the
- 1:01:16day it was announced that evening.
- 1:01:17So that's what I mean by two day marketing.
- 1:01:22Let's see, is the information available over Bloomberg?
- 1:01:25No, it's not. It's not until the company
- 1:01:27announces it. So again, only the people that
- 1:01:30they brought over the wall who get restricted.
- 1:01:32And you know, if you get restricted and you trade on it,
- 1:01:34there's legal repercussions if you if you do stuff like that,
- 1:01:38you trade on return on public information.
- 1:01:40You know, you have the SEC and Fenrir coming after you.
- 1:01:42So you don't want to do that, but that's what it means by
- 1:01:45getting restricted coming over the wall.
- 1:01:46And when you get over the wall like and you learn about a deal
- 1:01:50and you listen to it, you can either participate or not.
- 1:01:52But even, but if you decide not to participate, you can't trade
- 1:01:55on it. The only time that you can trade
- 1:01:57is after the deal was announced. And then, you know, obviously
- 1:02:01some guys get out there and start hedging their their
- 1:02:03convertible bond by shorting the stock.
- 1:02:07Why not a capped call this time? I think the company wanted the
- 1:02:10proceeds and they viewed the the previously they did a capped
- 1:02:14call which got the strike all the up to like 120.
- 1:02:18I think perhaps given that there was there's already this tap
- 1:02:22call out there, I don't know if there might not have been dealer
- 1:02:24capacity to do another large derivatives derivatives
- 1:02:28transaction with one already out there.
- 1:02:30So that's my guess. I think there may not have been
- 1:02:32capacity to do so. What will a battery consumption
- 1:02:37look like for service on current handheld devices?
- 1:02:39I think it's going to be pretty good.
- 1:02:41So one of the things that AST space followed by having a large
- 1:02:44phased array and fixed cells, the these satellites are able
- 1:02:48being done fixed cells, is that a satellite's going to be able
- 1:02:51to point on your phone for a fixed period of call it 877-8910
- 1:02:58minutes. And then you'll get handed off
- 1:03:00to somebody else and another satellite.
- 1:03:02So with that in mind, your, your, your power usage is not
- 1:03:10going to be that bad because it's, you're going to be fixed
- 1:03:13on a particular satellite. Now with Starlink, those beams
- 1:03:17are smaller and they're moving constantly.
- 1:03:19And so you're going to be connecting with multiple
- 1:03:21satellites over a period of, over that same period of 7 to 8
- 1:03:24minutes. And so you're going to have to
- 1:03:27go through the handover and, and cats, you can talk about this in
- 1:03:31more detail, but from what I understand, frequent handovers
- 1:03:34and searching for satellites that actually drains batteries
- 1:03:37quite a bit more. And so I think the way it should
- 1:03:42work is that you will have lower, you'll have more
- 1:03:46efficient battery usage using an ASD space mobile service versus
- 1:03:51Starlink to your phone. Let's see, is Iridium A
- 1:03:59worthwhile target for AST to pursue from a spectrum IT right
- 1:04:01standpoint? Is Kiper being boxed out of D to
- 1:04:04D globally in the need of ASD partnership?
- 1:04:08That's a good question. I mean, I think first of all
- 1:04:10Kiper is trying to get its initial consolation up for fixed
- 1:04:14wireless service. And so I think that's probably
- 1:04:16the biggest problem they want to tackle.
- 1:04:18It's they need to get a large number of satellites up in place
- 1:04:21trying to do that. And then you know, maybe them
- 1:04:24trying to work out some type of direct to device solution or
- 1:04:28partnership. At the same time, I think it's
- 1:04:30going to be tough, right, because you you actually need
- 1:04:33fixed wireless to start working and going first and that's going
- 1:04:36to generate cash flow and then go perhaps invest in something
- 1:04:39else. I think, and this is just me
- 1:04:43speculating, but I, I think given the the nature of
- 1:04:47friendship and working commercial working relationship
- 1:04:49between the Bell and Jeff Bezos, I'm guessing like there's
- 1:04:53probably a partnership there to work out.
- 1:04:54And we joke about like this whole congratulations for what?
- 1:04:59I mean, Yeah, I think I think they're working closely together
- 1:05:04and it's quite symbiotic. So I wouldn't be surprised if if
- 1:05:08Piper does develop some type of partnership in the future with
- 1:05:11AST. OK, let's see.
- 1:05:15Here's who's coming out there. What do you think of data
- 1:05:18centers in space? I think there's a lot of
- 1:05:21problems with that idea. I think it could make sense
- 1:05:24given the cooling requirements of data centers.
- 1:05:27And then also, you know, the amount of energy you're able to
- 1:05:31draw from something that's that's going to be out in space.
- 1:05:34I guess the issue is, is those things are huge and it's going
- 1:05:37to take a lot of it's really expensive to put stuff in space,
- 1:05:40especially where if you have a data center in space, and I
- 1:05:44haven't looked at this idea very closely, but if you have a data
- 1:05:46center in space, you probably want to have it way, way up in
- 1:05:50well beyond Geo, but you want it somewhere that's probably going
- 1:05:54to be fixed on the sun for for its entirety.
- 1:05:56It's not, you know, some of these videos where it shows like
- 1:05:59this data center that's really close to Earth, like that's
- 1:06:01never going to happen because in Leo, that thing would just get
- 1:06:05demolished by different things that are flying around.
- 1:06:09And you need, you'll need propulsion to keep that thing
- 1:06:12floating. But I think, and of course,
- 1:06:16like, since it's orbiting like, you know, it's, it's going to, I
- 1:06:19think ideally, and again, I'm not an expert on this, but you
- 1:06:21probably want to have it in, in the orbit that's really far out,
- 1:06:24that's going to be exposed in the sun.
- 1:06:26And getting to those orbits is really, really expensive.
- 1:06:30You know, just for example, on a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy, if you
- 1:06:34want to get to like really far out Geo type of orbits, then
- 1:06:39those are instance in a heavy payload.
- 1:06:40Those are instances where they those boosters are expended.
- 1:06:43Like they don't bring them back because it's it's it requires a
- 1:06:47lot of fuel. And once you're out there, then
- 1:06:48you're those things are stuck and you just get rid of them.
- 1:06:51But but yeah, I think data centers in space, like there's
- 1:06:54also some people talking about putting data centers on the moon
- 1:06:58And so, well, I think these are like conceptually cool and
- 1:07:01interesting ideas. I think there's a lot of
- 1:07:02problems with them, but who knows, maybe, maybe they'll get
- 1:07:05solved. OK, let me just see here,
- 1:07:16here's, let's see, we're in a under construction period after
- 1:07:20we have 60 satellites in the sky.
- 1:07:21When we see quarterly revenue, well, we're going to see
- 1:07:24quarterly revenue. Guess what, this quarter I
- 1:07:26forgot to cover it I guess Interesting.
- 1:07:29Interestingly as part of this offering the company of course
- 1:07:32they they pre announced their cash balance and some of and but
- 1:07:37they didn't give any. Typically they would give some
- 1:07:40level like capsule level of pre announce financials as part of
- 1:07:45this offering, but they didn't do it this time.
- 1:07:47And the reason why I think they didn't do that is because they
- 1:07:49want to surprise the market. That is, again, this is my own
- 1:07:51speculation, but this is going to be the first quarter of two
- 1:07:56quarters this year, third quarter and fourth quarter where
- 1:08:00the company had guided as we all know of 50 to 75 million in
- 1:08:03revenue. So I think they're going to
- 1:08:04probably they wanted to hold that information back for the
- 1:08:07quarterly call because it will be a Seminole event, right?
- 1:08:11I think because getting a mature amount of revenue from what the
- 1:08:16companies characterizes like gateway sales, but then also
- 1:08:19military, military work. I think it's going to be a great
- 1:08:23thing to talk about. And the market will, you know,
- 1:08:25you have all these these clowns who post these, these, these
- 1:08:30charts that would say, hey, these are the top, top market
- 1:08:34cap companies with no revenue today.
- 1:08:36And then AST, it was funny, I actually responded to one of
- 1:08:40those and I, I redid that chart where, yeah, AST doesn't have
- 1:08:43revenues today and it's got a 25 billion of our dollar market
- 1:08:47cap. But as we all know, investors
- 1:08:50value enterprises based off of future expectations, not on
- 1:08:53historical financial results, right?
- 1:08:54And so in that chart AST got put together with like Ocalo, you
- 1:09:00know, RMQS and these other companies and, and I repopulated
- 1:09:04that chart with market cap consensus research 20-30 revenue
- 1:09:10of EBITDA. And once you do that, the chart
- 1:09:12looks very different, right? Because AST in 20-30 is expected
- 1:09:16to generate over, you know, 5 1/2 billion of EBITDA and over 6
- 1:09:21billion of revenue versus like some of these quantum names that
- 1:09:25are going to do a few 100 million in revenue and maybe
- 1:09:28like 100 million of EBITDA in 20-30.
- 1:09:31So, so yeah, they're, they're yeah, I get it.
- 1:09:34Company doesn't generate revenues today.
- 1:09:35That's going to change this coming quarter.
- 1:09:37And when looking out in the future, they're one of these,
- 1:09:42you know, it's like the old Sesame Sesame Street little skip
- 1:09:47they would do where they show like 4 kids, 4 kids in the box
- 1:09:51and then or in boxes and and one kid would be or three kids, we
- 1:09:55jump roping and one kid might be eating a sandwich is like one of
- 1:09:57these is not like the other. And yeah, AST space mobile is
- 1:10:00not like the others on that on that chart, it is projected to
- 1:10:04do a substantial amount. I mean, just have probably one
- 1:10:07of the most historic levels of revenue growth and possibility
- 1:10:11if they execute them that this market has ever seen, right.
- 1:10:15And so there were some other companies on there like that.
- 1:10:19I I told Tut this gave him I took the hat that it or or
- 1:10:23Aurora like quantum scape and who was the other end like Joby.
- 1:10:30They actually have pretty good looking financial protections
- 1:10:33right for 20-30 relative to their market caps.
- 1:10:35And so funny enough, like Tut owns all the attractive ones on
- 1:10:39that chart. So anyway, but yeah, I that that
- 1:10:43is my plug for Tut. He's king.
- 1:10:45Tut is a is a great fall. Let's see if there's any other
- 1:10:49questions here. I think that's it.
- 1:10:55I hope you guys can hear me. Someone said that it sounds like
- 1:10:58I was cutting off. I don't see didn't get any
- 1:11:02messages. So you asked me that people can
- 1:11:04hear me. So I hope I hope you guys can
- 1:11:06hear me. But anyway, maybe I'll just wrap
- 1:11:08it up there. But yeah, an exciting day.
- 1:11:11I am going to go try to find that Iridium quote, which I
- 1:11:14think is probably kind of the maybe it's, it's, it's a, it's
- 1:11:22an example of the industry and, and it's, it's kind of a, a data
- 1:11:28or signal point of where we are. I'll try to find that net dash
- 1:11:31quote and I'll tweet it out. But but yeah, like I said
- 1:11:35before, times, times are changing and you want to be on
- 1:11:39the right side of history. And I think being investor in
- 1:11:42AC6 mobile, the future is bright.
- 1:11:44And over the next few weeks and months, there's going to be just
- 1:11:50a landslide of catalysts that are coming.
- 1:11:52And so I truly didn't mean it like when the company announced
- 1:11:56this convertible offering. Like it just made me way more
- 1:11:59bullish. And yeah, there's some like
- 1:12:00there's some volatility in hedging and of course, you know,
- 1:12:03the entire market and some of these floppy names sold off.
- 1:12:07But but I'm, I'm bullish, I'm bullish.
- 1:12:09I bought more. I'm looking forward to the next
- 1:12:12few weeks. I was down in My Portfolio
- 1:12:16several $1,000,000 from the top and that's fine.
- 1:12:20Like I'm not sweating it whatsoever.
- 1:12:22So anyway, I hope this is helpful.
- 1:12:24We'll look to connect again soon.
- 1:12:27And yeah, keep your eyes peeled. I think, I think there's going
- 1:12:29to be some big news coming. So take care everyone.
- 1:12:34Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mobile Podcast.
- 1:12:38If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
- 1:12:40podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
- 1:12:44media, or leave a rating and review.
- 1:12:46To catch all the latest news about AST Space Mobile, make
- 1:12:50sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
- 1:12:53next time. We're doing something very, very
- 1:12:58big and acting with this technology, we can really affect
- 1:13:01a billion lives. AST Space Mobile is the only
- 1:13:04company that has proven technology to deliver several
- 1:13:09mobile connectivity directly from space to do everyday smart
- 1:13:13people will just basically turn their phone be seamless,
- 1:13:17regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 1:13:20know that it's connected by satellite.
- 1:13:22Our role is to bring this into reality always in partnership
- 1:13:26with the animals. Listen.
- 1:13:40Waffles.