Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 285: Weather Cycles, Severe Storms, and the Spring Forecast with Gary Lezak

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285: Weather Cycles, Severe Storms, and the Spring Forecast with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are breaking down the
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  weather pattern, what we're currently seeing in the weather,
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  what we're going to be seeing over the coming weeks, and what
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  the severe weather outbreak that we have seen over the past week
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  means for late May and the cold front that we have coming in
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  right now. What does that mean as we go
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  forward? Gary breaks all of that down for
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  us today. Before we hop into today's
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  episode, if you're watching on any of our podcast platforms,
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  make sure that you take a second to rate review, like subscribe,
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  go share it with a friend, do all of the things.
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  We really appreciate everything that you guys do for us to
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  continue growing here at the team.
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  Without further ado, let's go ahead and hear from Gary Lisa.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
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  Your go to source for the. Latest livestock markets,
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  industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
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  today. I'm your host Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, welcome back to the
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  podcast. How are you doing this morning?
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  Oh my goodness, I'm doing fantastic.
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  How are you? I am wonderful.
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  We're getting rain here in Kansas.
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  It's a great day. It's a great day, but very
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  important business to discuss first.
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  How was your trip to New York? My trip to New York, you didn't
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  hear about what happened. I did not hear about what
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  happened, so I desperately. Well, I'll tell you what
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  happened. I let's just put it this way.
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  I survived New York City. OK, Let's just know.
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  Let's know that what happened is my nephew got married in Crown
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  Heights, region of Brooklyn and I went there and I have 22, 22
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  great nieces and nephews now. So I got a picture of my 7
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  nieces and nephews and all of their kids, my great nieces and
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  nephews. There's 2929 kids that are my
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  nieces, nephews, great nieces, great nephews and one of them is
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  my favorite already. And I can say it here because
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  they're not going to be listening to this I don't think
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  anytime soon. I don't think I'll try to get
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  them to though the youngest when he's a four year old, but he has
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  gravitated towards me and he's the cutest thing.
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  He's like, carry on. It's a sunny leg because you
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  have written a book, a children's story called It's A
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  Sunny Life. And and he was telling me all
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  about it. And in fact, all the kids, they
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  all know me, Uncle Gary through this book because there's a book
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  out there and it looks like me on the covers.
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  I'll So that went well. But to get to the wedding, I
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  took the subway and you've heard about these subway experiences,
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  right, including the deadly one, not too recently, just recently,
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  you know, and and so I'm in the subway.
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  I get all the way over there. I used ChatGPT to to tell me how
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  that which train to get on. I got on the train.
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  I'm on the subway and I said, Chad it there is no exit that
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  you talked about. Oh, I'm sorry, I told you to get
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  on the wrong train. Shows you ChatGPT can mash you
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  up because it says while I'm on the train.
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  Oh, I gave you the wrong train to get on.
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  You need to get off of that one and get at the next exit and get
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  on another one. I'm like great.
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  So anyway, whatever, 45 minutes later I did get to to the
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  destination. On the way back I sort of now
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  knew better and it's all by the way, why would I take the
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  subway? It's $3.50 for the subway and
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  it's $100 to Uber there. All right.
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  So I'm like, I can save $97.00 and for $96.50.
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  So anyway, I did on the way back, I got back on the same
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  train, but it, it went and stopped.
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  And there's this one other guy in there and he seemed to be
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  talking to himself. So he might have been
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  schizophrenic and he had a tray of protein drinks or whatever
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  that he was selling or something sitting on his lap.
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  And the train stops after I got on it.
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  It was the end of the road anyway, and it's supposed to go
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  back towards Manhattan where I was staying.
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  And so outcomes the engineer. He's walking through our car and
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  he goes, that was the last stop. He says to us too, there's alone
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  and closed inside there. And I said, as he walks away and
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  go, is this going back to Manhattan?
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  He says it'll leave in a few minutes.
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  I said, OK, So I sat there, waited.
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  Then the train started, got to the first stop and then the guy
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  still mumbling to himself, second stop, he's tries to get
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  out but he doesn't. And he sits back down, all
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  frustrated. And four or five other people
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  walked in. So now I'm not alone in there
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  with them. Then the next stop, he gets mad,
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  the doors open for the stop and he gets mad and he pulls out a
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  knife. About this long, about a foot
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  long knife, maybe longer. And he's got mad.
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  He's just, he's hitting the window.
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  He didn't break the window. He's smashing against the
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  window, against the side of the train.
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  He's 10 feet from me. The other four or five people
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  walk out gradually, just quietly and leave the train and go into
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  the next car and I'm sitting there for five seconds
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  processing. I'm not from New York.
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  I'm sitting there. If it was a gun, I probably
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  would have been scared to death right there.
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  There was a knife. And I'm like, Oh, my gosh, is
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  this really happening? The doors are still open, Gary.
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  The doors are still open. Go.
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  So I got up and I went into the next car, and I walked all the
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  way to the end of the next car in case he decided to come into
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  our car. And by the next stop, 20 more
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  people, 20 more people piled into the subway.
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  And I felt safer. And that was the end of that.
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  But I survived New York City. Specifically, the New York City
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  subway. Yeah, and in other ways, too.
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  Believe me, it's a crazy city. But I had a good visit with my
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  family, had a good wedding, and I got this shirt that shows this
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  guy with a knife and it says I survived New York City on it.
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  Oh my gosh, Yep. Nope.
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  I'll keep my Midwestern charm and I will happily visit those
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  places, but I I really like calling Kansas home.
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  I tell you what, especially after experiences or stories
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  like that, you're like, it feels good to be home.
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  You might die. It only cost about 100 bucks.
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  If you don't want to die, you have to take an Uber.
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  But regardless, it was New York City and, and, and it was a
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  couple of people on Facebook said you shouldn't have posted
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  that, Gary, because I posted it, I got like 400 comments from
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  people. A few said, yeah, I shouldn't
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  have posted it. I'm like, it was real, it
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  happened to me. It's not an isolated thing.
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  If it happened to me, that probably happens a little bit
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  here and there because there's some crazy people on those
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  subways. That and I mean the seasoned New
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  Yorkers just casually got off the train car and went to the
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  next train like, oh, it's just another Monday.
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  Not even phased. It's a.
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  Problem and then for a problem. Also, you don't want to start
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  recording the guy either because that might agitate him.
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  Yeah, yeah. That went through my head to
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  call 911. It went through my head.
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  That would take too long and #2 it went through my head that
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  there is a surveillance camera in here, so this is recorded.
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  I can go likely find it. Yeah, very true.
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  Very true. Nothing.
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  Nothing bad happened, OK. What a great experience of
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  lovely New York City. And New York City was, you know,
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  they had a foot of snow, a Blizzard a week earlier, and
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  there was literally no snow when I was there.
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  And it got up to 71° for the wedding.
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  So that was fantastic. Right on schedule.
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  And then in our severe weather guide that is out and we have a
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  few dozen people that haven't, maybe there's a day I'll make it
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  free, I don't know. But it supports weather 2020.
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  But in the guide, this severe weather outbreak that just
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  happened with large hail through Kansas City, there is some super
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  large hail, baseball size in quite a few spots and hail
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  covering the ground. It was quite a night in Kansas
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  City last night. And then the week before we had
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  severe weather. It was the bad tornado, the
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  deadly tornado in Oklahoma and in Michigan.
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  We can just say it right now. Remember Michigan got hit what,
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  March 5th or 4th or whatever it was a few days ago and and it
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  was a deadly tornado in Michigan and then this severe weather
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  hits Illinois, almost Michigan again.
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  This part of the pattern and that part of the pattern are
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  going to cycle back through mid to late May twice.
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  So the this was in our prediction and, and so it's
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  pretty wild when we predict it's going to happen, then it happens
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  and we are 90% accurate of predicting when severe weather
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  is going to strike. The Storm Prediction Center will
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  give you 23456, maybe up to 8 days notice of a risk.
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  We provide 75 to 150 days notice for those risks.
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  And these last two were spot on. And I'm telling you right now,
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  but I have not publicized it yet because usually I like, look at
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  this, we actually predicted this severe weather outbreak while
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  it's happening. And it pisses off my peers, OK?
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  They really can't stand me saying such things because they
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  don't believe it. They don't know what they don't
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  understand it and they're afraid of it because it actually is
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  accurate. But I didn't want to do that.
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  This time. I'm going to I'm going to do an
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  article on LinkedIn and we'll put it out there and and we'll
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  continue to make these predictions.
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  But boasting hasn't worked in getting this technology out to
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  the world. And to all of you listening
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  right now, yes, we did get it right.
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  But the point is the pattern is cycling regularly, there's a
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  predictability to it. We're able to predict the
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  forecasts for even down to a series of days for sure of
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  what's going to happen. That's why you can predict the
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  severe weather outbreak between March 8th and March 17th was our
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  prediction. And yesterday was when we
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  recorded this March 10th, March 11th and boom, it happened right
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  in the window we predicted. And so, so it's, it's, it's not
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  my goal to go, wow, look at me. I'm just amazing.
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  We got this forecast right. It's to save lives and help you.
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  The cattle rancher to help you, the dairy farmer to help you,
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  the corn and soybean farmer are all the above.
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  To help you know when severe weather might strike your farm,
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  when it's going to be dry or hot, and how it might impact you
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  and how you can prepare ahead of time.
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  Even if it's just a little preparation, it's better than
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  not being prepared. What we do is try to prevent
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  surprises. Absolutely, absolutely.
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  I could not agree more on that. And I mean as we're talking
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  about trying to prevent surprises and out looking to
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  what we kind of have in store for us the next few months.
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  Gary, what are your thoughts? Is there anything we kind of
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  need to head on today as far as outlook of weather goes?
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  Yeah, the weather pattern is right on schedule.
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  That's perfect example of these severe weather setups.
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  As we look ahead, there's going to be a hard freeze early next
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  week, a storm system right on schedule as well with a strong
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  cold front. We're going back into that phase
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  of the pattern that produced the cold outbreaks and the
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  snowstorms over, you know, the Great Lakes in the Northeast.
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  We're going back into that part of the pattern.
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  And so one really strong cold front is coming through, you
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  know, before Saint Patrick's Day, and it's going to turn
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  really cold. Then it'll warm up.
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  It'll warm up after that, and then it'll turn cold again.
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  But it's not early to have a hard freeze.
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  Now it may seem early because it's warmed up to 85° in a few
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  spots, and now we're going to have a hard freeze down to 20 or
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  18° possibly next week. So just know that that's coming,
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  that part of the pattern because it's a long cycle 70 days later.
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  So fortunately, when that comes back at the end of May and early
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  June, it's too late to have a freeze.
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  It may drop into the 40s at the end of May for low temperatures
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  when that goes through, but it'll be too late to have a
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  freeze then. So it's not going to be the last
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  freeze, but it's going to be a hard freeze.
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  And maybe it's good to have a really good freeze before we get
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  to planting, planting starting here soon and very soon.
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  And you, you want you're definitely going to want to wait
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  until after, after this freeze goes by early next week and then
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  we'll look ahead. The pattern is not changing.
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  It's the same pattern we've been in the these thing called an
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  anchor Ridge, which is where storm systems are weaker and not
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  as frequent. And that anchor Ridge doesn't
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  move. It's like one of those it's hard
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  to see, but it's there once it sets up for the entire season
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  and it extends from Texas across Colorado into southern Montana,
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  back to the West towards Utah and back to the east towards
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  western Kansas and Nebraska. This area continues to struggle
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  to get precipitation and it's been a warm winter.
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  You would characterize Denver, Co Golden, where I live as it
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  being an insanely warm winter. All right, it's not going to be
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  the warmest winter ever, but it is the most number of 60° days
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  ever during a winter in Denver. So there were enough cold spells
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  that prevented it from being the warmest winter ever, but it'll
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  be the top 10. But that's going to return,
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  which means that heat wave we predicted at the end of July and
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  early August is still, I'm 75 to 90% confident it will happen.
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  We'll expand into eastern Kansas towards Iowa in the heart of the
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  Cord Belt. Unlikely, OK.
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  I think there's might be an eastern edge to it over eastern
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  Kansas and eastern Nebraska. And that could place Iowa and
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  Missouri into a zone of thunderstorms, believe it or
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  not, called the Ring of Fire. You might have heard that term
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  in the past. Where will that line up?
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  Wherever that lines up southwest of that line, it is going to
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  sizzle the summer. So concern for parts of Kansas
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  and Nebraska westward. Just know that that's on our
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  radar and it's in our communication.
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  And I'll pop that back into the report next week.
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  Yeah, definitely something for us all to keep our eyes on as we
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  go into some warm summer months that are knocking at the door
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  really quickly. I went out this morning and we
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  got some weather last night and it's still kind of chilly and
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  windy here in Kansas today. And I stepped outside and I was
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  like, oh, that was a little bit of a, a little bit of a shock to
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  my system after having a few 70° days and sunny back-to-back to
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  back. But we, we know that those warm
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  days are coming and that they are just kind of right around
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  the corner for us knocking on the door.
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  So, Gary, is there anything else that we need to head on in the
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  weather today? Anything else that we missed or
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  other key points that we should probably touch on for our
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  audience? No, I think that's it for today.
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  Just the points are I survived. New York City #1 #2 thanks for
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  listening to my story. Overall, New York City's a very
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  interesting place. But when you have 10 million
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  people, all tight end, you can imagine a few dangerous people.
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  So you got to watch, watch out for them #2 the weather patterns
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  right on schedule and #3 hey, listen, just take a deep breath,
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  look around, try to watch the sunrise.
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  Try to watch the sunset, take it in, spend 5 minutes and just go.
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  It's great being alive and that's my message of the day.
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  I love it. It's going to be a great day.
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  I hope everyone listening to this takes Gary's advice and has
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  a phenomenal rest of their day, enjoys a little bit of what is
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  around us. And if you didn't catch the
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  sunrise today, I hope you catch it tomorrow.
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  So, Gary, thank you as always for coming on and sharing your
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  thoughts and your knowledge to all of our listeners.
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  Thanks for being here and we will see you all next time on
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  another episode. Have a good one y'all.