Latest / Crosstabs / Will Dudley Stand Tall Enough?

Transcript

Will Dudley Stand Tall Enough? · Crosstabs

0:00
SPEAKER_01: We're clear to engage.
0:01
SPEAKER_01: Time on target.
0:02
SPEAKER_01: Five mics.
0:03
SPEAKER_01: Out.
0:03
SPEAKER_01: I did see that Dirk tweet.
0:12
Great.
0:15
Follow-up.
0:16
SPEAKER_01: What was the follow-up there on that?
0:30
The follow-up is that the Facebook ad campaign was briefly
0:37
expanded to include not
0:39
SPEAKER_03: just now the swing or so-called influential moderate Democrats,
0:43
SPEAKER_03: but they added Wagner and Fahey.
0:46
SPEAKER_03: But Dirk writes that those ads were up for less than an hour.
0:52
So I'm not quite sure,
0:54
you know,
0:55
somebody in those offices was on Facebook.
0:58
and saw the ads and sent some screenshots and some texts were
1:03
made and then some
1:04
SPEAKER_03: ads were taken down.
1:05
SPEAKER_03: It looks like.
1:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
1:06
SPEAKER_01: Especially in her district, which would be the Eugene area speaker Fahey.
1:11
SPEAKER_01: So,
1:11
SPEAKER_01: but they're kind of saying,
1:13
SPEAKER_01: they're basically saying she's got the power to stop Trump,
1:17
SPEAKER_01: you know,
1:18
SPEAKER_01: from giving tax breaks to hardworking Oregonians.
1:23
SPEAKER_01: Like I just don't get that.
1:27
SPEAKER_03: And funny enough,
1:28
SPEAKER_03: I'm on the Oregonian right now,
1:29
SPEAKER_03: and I'm getting an ad for Protect Lifesaving Virtual Care.
1:33
SPEAKER_03: Have you seen this before?
1:34
SPEAKER_03: I'm going to send it to you right now.
1:35
SPEAKER_03: I'm clicking on it to see where it goes.
1:39
SPEAKER_03: The influence campaigns, they're going right now.
1:42
SPEAKER_03: It's short session time, so people are pushing out their messages.
1:46
SPEAKER_03: And it's going to get interesting fast, I think.
1:49
So I think one of the things that's important is obviously
1:54
there's a lot of stuff
1:55
SPEAKER_03: that is potentially a pretty big deal,
1:59
SPEAKER_03: pretty heavy topics.
2:00
SPEAKER_03: Even though it's short session,
2:01
SPEAKER_03: right,
2:02
SPEAKER_03: people aren't necessarily afraid to bring forward big topics.
2:06
SPEAKER_03: I think that what I'm sensing,
2:07
SPEAKER_03: at least from a couple of the chairs that we work with,
2:11
is stuff that doesn't get fully baked pretty much by the time
2:17
you've had your
2:17
SPEAKER_03: public hearing is dead.
2:21
SPEAKER_03: That's the sense I'm getting.
2:22
I think there are some people that are going to try to push the
2:24
envelope there,
2:25
SPEAKER_03: but we're working on two different bills.
2:27
One's a committee bill,
2:28
one's our bill,
2:29
and we already have our amendments on.
2:32
in the hopper,
2:33
they just can't be published until the bills are published and
2:36
all that.
2:37
SPEAKER_03: But, like, that should be the end of them, right?
2:42
SPEAKER_03: And so if your bill is not done yet,
2:44
SPEAKER_03: you should start getting worried and you should get it done.
2:48
SPEAKER_03: That's the message.
2:50
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, things move pretty quick in short session.
2:53
SPEAKER_01: That is for sure.
2:54
SPEAKER_01: So I think, though, I got a feeling.
2:59
SPEAKER_01: I don't say I think.
3:00
SPEAKER_01: I think I have a feeling that
3:02
SPEAKER_01: This is going to be a railroad.
3:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I feel like it's going to be a railroad show.
3:06
SPEAKER_01: I think we're just, I don't think Republican stuff.
3:11
SPEAKER_01: I mean, they're going to give courtesy hearings to the people in there.
3:14
But I got a feeling the Democrats want to railroad their agenda
3:18
this year.
3:19
Because if you think about two years ago,
3:21
we were kind of hijacked a little bit by...
3:25
SPEAKER_01: The Measure 110 repeal,
3:27
like there was kind of a bunch of stuff that they had to do and
3:33
they needed the
3:33
SPEAKER_01: Republican support to do it.
3:35
SPEAKER_01: And then now I feel like they're going to try to just railroad.
3:40
SPEAKER_01: Which is not saying that's what I wouldn't do if I was in their shoes.
3:45
SPEAKER_01: But I get a sense of that,
3:47
that there's just going to be leadership is going to try to
3:51
reaffirm their strength
3:53
SPEAKER_01: on things.
3:54
SPEAKER_01: And maybe that's why the unions are putting these ads out,
3:57
SPEAKER_01: because maybe they're not getting the meetings that they want with them.
4:01
SPEAKER_01: leadership.
4:03
SPEAKER_01: And so they're kind of pissed that they're not getting what they,
4:06
SPEAKER_01: what they feel they want the damn leadership to do.
4:10
SPEAKER_03: So I think, I think I know what's driving this too.
4:13
SPEAKER_03: So I've,
4:15
SPEAKER_03: I've in my feed as in your feed,
4:17
SPEAKER_03: I get various stories that pop up from different state legislatures.
4:22
Just cause that's,
4:23
I think an idea like Twitter has an idea of that's what we're
4:25
interested in.
4:26
SPEAKER_03: So I saw in Virginia where,
4:29
they're running out a ban on anything over a magazines over
4:34
nine i think and
4:37
something like that a pretty significant gun ban because they
4:40
just got full control
4:41
again of virginia with the governor's office and legislature
4:45
and so they had been
4:46
demons had been frozen out of running some far left stuff so
4:48
it's not like they
4:49
have big majorities but they have majorities yeah and so what
4:52
happens in these
4:53
SPEAKER_03: states
4:54
Where Democrats have recently just got majorities is they run
4:58
hard on their agenda.
5:00
They push because they know that there's any chance they could
5:03
get swept right out of power.
5:04
SPEAKER_03: So they just go for everything.
5:06
SPEAKER_03: I mean,
5:06
they're trying to end mandatory minimums on child rapists and
5:11
traffickers and stuff
5:12
SPEAKER_03: like that.
5:13
SPEAKER_03: I mean, all kinds of crazy bills introduced in Virginia.
5:16
SPEAKER_03: And the gun bills already are moving.
5:18
SPEAKER_03: Right.
5:19
SPEAKER_03: So I think in Oregon, they've been in charge for a long time.
5:23
SPEAKER_03: And,
5:23
SPEAKER_03: you know,
5:24
SPEAKER_03: some of these things they've done,
5:25
SPEAKER_03: but over a period of time and they just get jealous and they go,
5:28
SPEAKER_03: why can't we do stuff like that in Oregon?
5:30
Why don't we get to why don't we get to run the most radical of
5:34
whatever's?
5:35
SPEAKER_03: And so then they go and try to do that.
5:37
SPEAKER_03: But there's like a pretty significant issue.
5:39
I think it's I think it's there's some gun shyness on the
5:42
leadership front that if
5:43
SPEAKER_03: they go too hard,
5:45
SPEAKER_03: that they would lose power.
5:46
SPEAKER_03: And then also there isn't the appetite for it.
5:50
The moderate Democrats are still they have enough influence to
5:54
be able to push some
5:55
SPEAKER_03: of this stuff or really heavily water it down.
5:57
And so they just get jealous of what they're seeing on Twitter,
6:00
what they're seeing in the news.
6:01
And they just get they really want to run a radical agenda and
6:05
they keep getting
6:06
SPEAKER_03: stymied and it bothers them.
6:08
SPEAKER_03: And they don't think that the agendas they've run are radical enough,
6:11
SPEAKER_03: which I think is interesting.
6:14
SPEAKER_03: But I think it's just a loss of perspective.
6:16
SPEAKER_01: Well,
6:16
I think you're – and there definitely is a split amongst the
6:20
Democrats and the
6:21
SPEAKER_01: legislature,
6:22
SPEAKER_01: I think.
6:22
SPEAKER_01: You really get some of those radicalized ones that want to come in.
6:26
SPEAKER_01: And then you have some people that just want to make a policy, right?
6:29
SPEAKER_01: They're not there to score political points or climb a political ladder.
6:33
And thank God there's some of those Democrats that still exist
6:38
that are kind of
6:39
SPEAKER_01: just there to do the work,
6:40
SPEAKER_01: right?
6:40
SPEAKER_01: They're not there to be the next governor or whatever.
6:43
SPEAKER_01: They're just there to do the –
6:46
SPEAKER_01: to do the work and we need to work with those people.
6:48
And that's usually how Oregon's been able to kind of maintain
6:51
some sort of level of
6:53
SPEAKER_01: sanity in a world that could completely go far left,
6:59
SPEAKER_01: you know,
7:00
SPEAKER_01: insane.
7:00
SPEAKER_01: So I think,
7:03
SPEAKER_01: and also to be honest with you,
7:05
SPEAKER_01: Republicans in the legislature over the years,
7:07
SPEAKER_01: you know,
7:07
SPEAKER_01: was not always,
7:09
SPEAKER_01: but we've had some pretty decent,
7:12
SPEAKER_01: Republican leadership said,
7:14
SPEAKER_01: know how to navigate those waters and know how to basically,
7:17
SPEAKER_01: and we've used,
7:17
SPEAKER_01: we've had to use the walkout and stuff,
7:19
SPEAKER_01: right?
7:19
I mean,
7:20
23 was going to be a hard left radical agenda that they were
7:25
trying to push through.
7:26
And they,
7:27
they ran into the buzzsaw called,
7:30
you know,
7:30
Tim Knope and Vicki Brie Cyberson.
7:32
SPEAKER_01: And then,
7:33
it didn't work right so we and then the same thing happened i
7:36
think even in 24 we
7:37
were able to navigate the waters on the measure 110 thing and
7:41
not allow republic
7:42
you know not allow these radical agendas so we we've done a
7:45
pretty good job too i
7:46
don't and usually we just get beat up by our own party by not
7:49
doing a good enough
7:50
job but i i think we i think there's like that two-fold thing
7:55
that works there
7:55
because like washington republicans and california republicans
7:59
i feel like they
7:59
SPEAKER_01: just roll over
8:01
and they just take whatever beating is given to them and then
8:05
they just move on and
8:07
because you never really hear anything kind of coming out of
8:10
the other west coast
8:10
states from republicans you know standing up pushing back
8:14
figuring out ways to
8:16
navigate bad policy i think they literally just show up and
8:19
drink whiskey with the
8:20
SPEAKER_01: democrats and say hey what do you where are you guys kicking us today
8:24
I also think that that point that you brought out is the
8:28
argument against the
8:31
SPEAKER_03: refrain I hear from some Republicans where they go,
8:35
SPEAKER_03: well,
8:36
SPEAKER_03: if we stopped watering down their stuff –
8:39
those bills would be bad enough that voters would finally see
8:43
the light and they
8:44
SPEAKER_03: would finally vote Republican.
8:46
SPEAKER_03: And it's like, I don't think that's true.
8:48
SPEAKER_03: I don't think that that has been proven anywhere.
8:51
I think plenty of these states go hard left on all these
8:53
different issues and it
8:54
SPEAKER_03: hasn't necessarily...
8:56
change the viewpoint I think sometimes you have these
8:58
situations where you have the
8:59
right candidate or the whoever that breaks through like a Chris
9:04
Christie or a Larry
9:05
Hogan or Glenn Youngkin but like on the whole the argument is
9:09
you should fight for
9:11
the better policy and if you can get a better bill you should
9:13
try to get a better
9:14
bill because ultimately people still have to live under this
9:17
and you don't know how
9:17
SPEAKER_03: long it's going to be law and
9:19
SPEAKER_03: And you don't know what the next election is going to be like, right?
9:22
And I think that you could water it down and then have a wave
9:25
election and then win.
9:26
SPEAKER_03: And so then...
9:28
you're in a better spot to push that policy back the direction
9:31
that it needs to go.
9:32
SPEAKER_03: So I don't think that,
9:35
SPEAKER_03: you know,
9:35
SPEAKER_03: I think some people do want to throw up their hands and I just,
9:37
SPEAKER_03: I don't,
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SPEAKER_03: I haven't seen evidence that that strategy is effective.
9:41
And so I think continuing to fight where it's possible to fight
9:45
is the right
9:46
strategy and trying to water these things down and trying to
9:49
muddy the waters and
9:50
SPEAKER_03: trying to delay them.
9:51
SPEAKER_03: I think all of that does, it all has its place.
9:54
SPEAKER_03: Not all of it works all the time,
9:55
SPEAKER_03: Not going to not going to go there.
9:57
SPEAKER_03: Obviously,
9:57
SPEAKER_03: I think that there's you know,
9:58
there's times where it hasn't worked and there's but on a lot
10:01
of these issues,
10:02
Democrats are uncomfortable with where they're at or the
10:06
direction they're driving.
10:07
And so we need to make sure that that uncomfortableness is
10:11
allowed to play in these spaces.
10:14
SPEAKER_03: And so it can water these things down or delay them or make them better.
10:18
SPEAKER_01: Well, I agree.
10:20
SPEAKER_01: Hey, Reagan, you know what?
10:22
really i think works for republicans is running for governor i
10:26
think that's the plan
10:29
I kind of thought that there would be a downturn from 2022 on
10:34
how many people were
10:35
SPEAKER_03: running for governor.
10:36
And I don't think it's – I think there's a possibility there's
10:40
going to be more
10:41
SPEAKER_03: candidates running for governor than last time.
10:43
SPEAKER_03: I think we should look at raising the filing fee.
10:46
SPEAKER_03: I think it's too low.
10:48
SPEAKER_03: Or, you know, you've got to collect 100 signatures.
10:51
SPEAKER_03: Just anything to get it so that –
10:53
So that when you're a board on a Saturday afternoon,
10:56
you can't file for governor.
10:57
SPEAKER_03: I mean, goodness, it's getting insane.
11:00
Now,
11:00
I do think that the latest entrant is not somebody – well,
11:04
maybe he was board.
11:05
SPEAKER_03: I don't know.
11:06
I don't necessarily know what caused Mr.
11:10
Dudley,
11:10
Chris Dudley,
11:12
to announce for governor.
11:13
SPEAKER_03: But –
11:14
SPEAKER_03: We did hold.
11:15
SPEAKER_03: We did say he was going to do it.
11:17
SPEAKER_03: And there were people who were skeptical.
11:19
SPEAKER_03: And so it's not much of a victory lap, but I'm taking it.
11:22
SPEAKER_03: We were right.
11:23
SPEAKER_03: Chris Dudley's running for governor.
11:26
SPEAKER_03: And so he announced it.
11:27
SPEAKER_03: He's got his website up.
11:30
SPEAKER_03: I think that...
11:32
SPEAKER_03: I think he might be a little rusty.
11:34
SPEAKER_03: I think he's shaking off a little bit of the rust here.
11:37
SPEAKER_03: It's been a few years.
11:40
But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets back up to snuff pretty
11:43
quick here.
11:45
So he's DudleyForOregon.com is his website if people haven't
11:49
seen it already.
11:51
SPEAKER_03: But he's in.
11:51
SPEAKER_03: He's got a quick video announcement.
11:54
SPEAKER_03: So what it seems like to me is that he has –
11:57
He turned this around pretty fast that he was trying to line up
12:00
his – get all of
12:01
SPEAKER_03: his ducks in a row,
12:03
but he didn't get a website done a long time ago or all that
12:06
stuff because you'd
12:06
SPEAKER_03: have to start reporting and all that.
12:07
So he did wait,
12:08
wait until the last possible moment,
12:10
and now he's out there.
12:12
SPEAKER_03: So the campaign is just getting built.
12:14
SPEAKER_03: But what do you think of the Dudley announcement, Brian?
12:17
SPEAKER_01: Oh, I definitely knew it was coming.
12:19
SPEAKER_01: I think that everybody really – and I think he's kind of –
12:25
SPEAKER_01: wants to get back into the political realm.
12:27
And once you run for governor,
12:29
it's kind of hard to run for anything lower than that,
12:33
I feel.
12:34
SPEAKER_01: So,
12:35
SPEAKER_01: like,
12:36
I think Christine figured that out when she came back to the
12:39
legislature and it was
12:40
SPEAKER_01: just,
12:40
SPEAKER_01: like,
12:41
SPEAKER_01: not as much fun as running for governor because it's just a bigger stage,
12:46
SPEAKER_01: right?
12:46
So,
12:47
and I think once you get on that big stage,
12:50
I think it's kind of difficult for –
12:52
SPEAKER_01: for them to do anything less than that.
12:56
So I think he looked at potentially some other things,
12:58
but it's just not governor.
13:00
So on that level,
13:02
you're just like,
13:02
okay,
13:02
I'm just gonna run for governor again.
13:04
And he must've had enough feedback from enough donors and his
13:08
circle of influence
13:09
of people that he felt that he could find a lane that could get
13:15
him out of the
13:15
SPEAKER_01: primary and challenge Tina for the top job in the state.
13:19
SPEAKER_01: And I think that that's really
13:22
ultimately what decided to and i was um i think the website's a
13:27
little lacking i
13:29
think uh the logo i don't like the blue and yellow thing i
13:33
don't think most people
13:34
even know that's our state flag colors i i have seen i was a
13:39
little bummed on the
13:40
SPEAKER_01: logo so um
13:43
SPEAKER_01: I just kind of like, meh.
13:45
SPEAKER_03: Frankly,
13:45
if part of his campaign is reminding people about how close we
13:51
came in 2010,
13:51
SPEAKER_03: I would have just brought back the old logo.
13:53
SPEAKER_03: Just clean it up a little bit.
13:55
SPEAKER_03: There were actually two Dudley logos, by the way.
13:58
SPEAKER_03: People may not remember this, but there was the Dudley 2010 logo.
14:02
SPEAKER_03: And it was just the word Dudley next to the 2010.
14:06
SPEAKER_03: And one was red, one was blue.
14:08
SPEAKER_03: And then it was Dudley join Oregon's comeback.
14:11
SPEAKER_03: And that was the general election version,
14:13
SPEAKER_03: if I remember correctly,
14:14
SPEAKER_03: which is just an insane thing to have still in my memory banks.
14:17
SPEAKER_03: But but either one of those,
14:20
SPEAKER_03: I think both red,
14:21
SPEAKER_03: white and blue,
14:22
which is which is far and away the preferred colors from voters
14:26
when they when they
14:27
SPEAKER_03: I talked about this.
14:28
SPEAKER_03: And if I can find it, I'll send it to you, Brian.
14:31
they did some guys put together a study and they studied uh
14:35
they asked candidates
14:36
what they thought about campaign logos they asked consultants
14:38
what they thought
14:39
about logos and they thought they asked voters and candidates
14:41
and consultants
14:42
preferred modern logos with differing color schemes and all
14:46
this and and voters
14:48
SPEAKER_03: were like red white and blue classic with flags like voters
14:54
SPEAKER_03: Red,
14:54
SPEAKER_03: white,
14:54
SPEAKER_03: and blue is...
14:56
You probably shouldn't stray too far from it if you have a
14:58
competitive election and
15:00
SPEAKER_03: that kind of stuff where that kind of stuff will matter more.
15:03
SPEAKER_03: In a safe seat, you go make your logo silly, I guess.
15:05
SPEAKER_03: I don't care.
15:06
SPEAKER_03: I mean, I do care.
15:07
SPEAKER_03: I don't want it to look bad.
15:09
SPEAKER_03: But I do think there's more.
15:11
And it doesn't mean he doesn't have time to adjust that if he
15:15
makes it through the primary.
15:16
SPEAKER_03: And I'm not saying that the...
15:18
There isn't,
15:18
to me,
15:19
a lot of evidence that a good logo makes it so that you win the
15:22
race.
15:23
SPEAKER_03: I don't think that that has that much of an impact.
15:26
But good branding can help your message spread faster and more
15:31
effectively than bad
15:33
SPEAKER_03: branding does.
15:33
SPEAKER_03: And I think that that's the part that matters here.
15:35
SPEAKER_01: And I probably would have done a throwback to the Blazers on some level.
15:40
SPEAKER_01: I would have tried to incorporate some sort of...
15:44
SPEAKER_01: red, black, and white theme into it, make people remember who he was.
15:48
SPEAKER_01: I would have probably done that in my announcement video,
15:52
SPEAKER_01: him,
15:53
SPEAKER_01: you know,
15:53
missing a free throw because he was a really bad free throw
15:56
shooter or something.
15:58
SPEAKER_01: Like I would have just incorporated some sort of messaging like to,
16:02
make people remember and also to remember that he barely lost
16:05
that he had the lead
16:06
until like two in the morning when Multnomah County showed up
16:10
with 35,000 votes
16:11
right so I think like I would have really probably done a
16:15
little bit of a throwback
16:16
and I would have I would have just reminded people a little bit
16:19
more in the
16:19
announcement coming out maybe he's got a plan to do that I hope
16:22
so but I probably
16:24
would have done that my logo would have been a little bit more
16:26
blazer-esque
16:28
SPEAKER_01: I would have just incorporated, hey, I know not all of you remember me.
16:33
SPEAKER_01: Some of you weren't even born, but back in the day, just something.
16:36
I would have just done something to jog people's memory that he
16:41
came that close
16:42
SPEAKER_01: against a very popular governor in Kitzhaber.
16:46
SPEAKER_01: And I think that that's really where the importance is.
16:50
And so I say a little bit of a miss coming out of the box,
16:55
a little bit of a stumble.
16:58
SPEAKER_01: You know, I mean, Ed Deal really didn't even have a video announcement.
17:03
SPEAKER_01: So I guess there's that, right?
17:05
SPEAKER_01: I mean, at least he did something.
17:07
uh christine's was very theatrical out of the box right she had
17:11
the whole thing and
17:12
she's pretty good at the theatrics and stuff and and building
17:15
that sort of you know
17:17
she loves tv ads so that makes sense uh yeah i mean her her her
17:21
launch was
17:22
definitely polished um oh good ed deal's website finally has a
17:26
governor logo on it
17:27
uh it was still back when he announced it was still a state rep
17:31
logo he didn't do
17:31
SPEAKER_03: any kind of digital no he just changed state rep the governor i think
17:35
yeah i mean it's still the same website but um at least it says
17:39
governor now he did
17:41
get a he showed a hundred thousand dollar donation yesterday so
17:44
that's pretty good
17:45
so it's raising some money so there's a an individual a single
17:49
donation or total a
17:51
thousand thousand yeah single wow wow who was that i did not
17:55
see that it was from
17:56
SPEAKER_01: glenn stonebrink at a rickrey
18:00
SPEAKER_01: All right.
18:01
SPEAKER_01: $100,000.
18:01
SPEAKER_01: So that makes it a little bit different.
18:07
If he's able to raise money on top of putting together his Get
18:10
Out the Vote
18:11
SPEAKER_01: campaign,
18:11
SPEAKER_01: I think that's going to upset the apple cart on a few people.
18:17
Well,
18:17
and that's been one of the things – I've never argued that Ed
18:19
can't win the primary.
18:20
SPEAKER_03: In fact, I was having this discussion with some PCPs.
18:24
SPEAKER_03: And so I walked through this,
18:26
and you might see there were some folks that were talking to
18:29
that were writing it
18:30
SPEAKER_03: up.
18:31
SPEAKER_03: We have Lynn County Republicans love to write some blog posts and stuff,
18:34
SPEAKER_03: and they write in different spots.
18:36
SPEAKER_03: So you may see some of that pop up.
18:38
SPEAKER_03: But if I can pull this up real quick, I basically –
18:42
This primary,
18:43
like almost all primaries,
18:45
has like three lanes,
18:46
basically.
18:46
SPEAKER_03: So here's what I wrote.
18:48
SPEAKER_03: I'd say Deal probably closely most represents the base,
18:52
SPEAKER_03: Drazen the establishment,
18:53
SPEAKER_03: and Dudley the business outsiders,
18:55
SPEAKER_03: okay?
18:56
These are like the three groups that kind of exist generally in
18:58
our sphere.
18:59
SPEAKER_03: There's other smaller groups,
19:00
SPEAKER_03: there's Second Amendment folks,
19:01
SPEAKER_03: and sometimes they have their representation,
19:03
SPEAKER_03: but broadly it's the base,
19:05
SPEAKER_03: it's the establishment,
19:06
SPEAKER_03: like the electeds,
19:07
SPEAKER_03: and then the business outsiders,
19:08
SPEAKER_03: okay?
19:09
SPEAKER_03: Okay.
19:10
SPEAKER_03: Each group thinks the other two are stupid and annoying.
19:13
The base thinks both the business outsiders and the
19:17
establishment only care about
19:18
SPEAKER_03: themselves and are not conservative enough.
19:21
The establishment thinks neither the base nor the business
19:24
outsiders actually
19:25
SPEAKER_03: understand politics.
19:27
SPEAKER_03: OK,
19:27
and the business outsiders think the base is out of touch and
19:30
the establishment is
19:31
SPEAKER_03: too scared of the base to do hard things.
19:33
SPEAKER_03: Right.
19:33
SPEAKER_03: So that's like roughly what I think.
19:35
And you could break this that you go back into one of the
19:38
previous primaries and
19:39
SPEAKER_03: you could say maybe Pulliam was representative of the base and Drazen the
19:43
SPEAKER_03: establishment.
19:44
And then what's his name that the business guy that came in
19:48
late that whose name I
19:49
SPEAKER_03: can't remember right now?
19:51
SPEAKER_03: Yes.
19:51
SPEAKER_03: Bob Tiernan represented the business outsiders.
19:54
SPEAKER_03: OK.
19:54
And so the business outsiders show up and they go,
19:57
this is these are easy problems to solve.
19:59
SPEAKER_03: All you just do is you just do this and you do this and boom.
20:01
SPEAKER_03: They got a white paper.
20:02
SPEAKER_03: They got solutions.
20:03
SPEAKER_03: They got bills, whatever.
20:04
SPEAKER_03: And then those things meet political reality.
20:06
SPEAKER_03: And they go, what is everybody upset about?
20:08
SPEAKER_03: We don't understand this.
20:09
SPEAKER_03: Right.
20:09
SPEAKER_03: Right.
20:10
SPEAKER_03: And then you have the establishment that understands,
20:12
SPEAKER_03: yeah,
20:12
SPEAKER_03: there's these solutions out there,
20:14
but then there's like political reality of like trying to get
20:16
this stuff passed,
20:17
SPEAKER_03: right?
20:17
SPEAKER_03: And there's this base that cares about all this stuff.
20:19
SPEAKER_03: And a lot of it is not economic policy.
20:21
SPEAKER_03: And that's the thing that confuses the business outsiders.
20:23
SPEAKER_03: They're like,
20:24
SPEAKER_03: everybody's all fired up,
20:25
but they're not fired up about tax rates and they're not fired
20:28
up about...
20:29
the economy and they're not fired up about uh you know
20:32
deductibility and and any of
20:34
these business issues they're fired up on abortion and guns and
20:38
immigration and all
20:39
this stuff and so those guys don't know how to talk to each
20:43
other and it's like the
20:43
establishment's job to like play the middleman and so as the
20:47
establishment is
20:47
playing the middleman sometimes the business outsiders lose and
20:50
sometimes the base
20:51
SPEAKER_03: loses and so both groups get mad at the establishment and
20:54
SPEAKER_03: And I don't think that makes the establishment better than others.
20:56
Sometimes the establishment is incredibly cowardly and is
21:00
afraid of the base.
21:01
And sometimes they're afraid of one donor and they make their
21:04
vote based on those things.
21:06
SPEAKER_03: And so if you can align all these three, you become very powerful.
21:11
SPEAKER_03: But it's very challenging to get all of these things to fit together.
21:15
SPEAKER_03: And so that's why in these primaries you see,
21:17
SPEAKER_03: why are all these candidates running against each other?
21:19
Different ideologies in how to get stuff accomplished in
21:21
politics and different
21:23
SPEAKER_03: priorities,
21:23
SPEAKER_03: and those priorities materialize as candidates.
21:27
SPEAKER_03: And I think most people would say –
21:30
SPEAKER_03: Deal very much more in tune with the base than the other two.
21:33
SPEAKER_03: Drazen much more establishment and Dudley very much business outsider.
21:37
SPEAKER_03: Right.
21:37
SPEAKER_03: And I think those are like the three categories.
21:39
And it's and now it's all about who do voters want to put
21:42
forward in that argument.
21:44
SPEAKER_03: It's because the base isn't the only one that votes.
21:46
SPEAKER_03: The base is the hard right involved folks.
21:48
There's a bunch of registered R's that only check in during the
21:51
election time that
21:52
SPEAKER_03: aren't as active that also vote.
21:56
SPEAKER_03: Right.
21:56
SPEAKER_03: And then you also have,
21:57
SPEAKER_03: you know,
21:57
you also have your liberals and you also have these other
22:00
smaller groups and who's
22:01
SPEAKER_03: going to pick up some of those folks.
22:02
SPEAKER_03: Right.
22:03
And so I think but I think broadly,
22:05
that's the primary we have in front of us.
22:07
SPEAKER_03: And so we kind of get to see who's going to do well under those.
22:10
SPEAKER_01: Where do you think where do you think like Medina falls out in that mix?
22:14
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's got a pretty big social following.
22:16
SPEAKER_01: I know I agree with everything you said in regards to like.
22:20
SPEAKER_01: these lanes and out of these lanes kind of come candidates.
22:23
SPEAKER_01: I think that's usually, I think that's a good way of kind of putting it.
22:27
SPEAKER_01: Right.
22:28
SPEAKER_01: So you kind of have these areas and then,
22:31
SPEAKER_01: but I just wonder,
22:31
SPEAKER_01: like you get somebody like a Medina who I'm granted,
22:34
he doesn't have any experience doing anything except for maybe
22:37
Jan six riots or
22:38
SPEAKER_01: something,
22:39
SPEAKER_01: but in fighting with reporters,
22:41
SPEAKER_01: but,
22:41
SPEAKER_01: uh,
22:42
SPEAKER_01: and I don't,
22:42
SPEAKER_01: I don't,
22:43
SPEAKER_01: I don't know David at all.
22:44
SPEAKER_01: I could really care less, but I think that, uh,
22:48
SPEAKER_01: You know, he does have a following.
22:49
SPEAKER_01: He does speak some hard truths.
22:51
SPEAKER_01: I think he does a pretty good job on social in regards to things.
22:55
SPEAKER_01: Does he fall like in the space?
22:59
I would say he's more of a base,
23:01
but he's just like a less experienced,
23:03
newer base candidate.
23:05
Whereas Deal has a little bit more experience and then a lot of
23:07
notoriety from the no tax.
23:09
SPEAKER_03: I'd say Bethel probably fits pretty easily in establishment,
23:13
SPEAKER_03: although she is trying to position herself as business outsider.
23:16
But she's a current elected,
23:18
so I would categorize her more as establishment.
23:22
SPEAKER_03: And I think that's also more...
23:24
how she's running and she may split that lane a little bit
23:27
because she isn't trying
23:29
to be the same as as Drazen and she is trying to do something
23:32
different I don't
23:32
know that we'll see if it works right but I would say I would
23:37
say I lean more
23:38
towards establishment I would say there's some evidence it's
23:42
not working I don't
23:43
know if a more crowded primary helps her or hurts her yet it
23:47
could help as this
23:49
primary gets more crowded it starts to get more and here's my
23:51
dog trying to get on
23:52
SPEAKER_03: my lap yeah
23:54
SPEAKER_03: But more regional.
23:56
SPEAKER_01: You keep dividing the vote.
23:57
SPEAKER_01: I think the more...
24:00
SPEAKER_01: my wisdom would tell me like based on money and all the things,
24:04
SPEAKER_01: the more divided the vote gets,
24:06
SPEAKER_01: the more probably helps Drazen right now.
24:10
Cause she's going to have kind of a base of support built in
24:14
from last time.
24:15
SPEAKER_01: And, and she's, you know, got decent money in the bank.
24:18
SPEAKER_01: So I think it's still going to be pretty difficult,
24:22
SPEAKER_01: like the way it stands now,
24:23
SPEAKER_01: but if Ed keeps dropping a hundred thousand dollar checks,
24:27
And if Dudley kind of fumbles around and doesn't drop some big
24:31
numbers soon and get
24:33
SPEAKER_01: on TV and have a message that resonates,
24:37
because you can't just resonate your message with business
24:39
outsiders because
24:41
SPEAKER_01: there's not that many of them.
24:43
yeah you have to resonate with the base a little bit right i
24:46
also think the fun
24:47
thing to see will be i don't know who's on ed's team i reached
24:50
out to some of his
24:51
previous consultants it doesn't sound like he's using those
24:54
folks um so i don't
24:56
know who his political team is we know drazen's political team
25:00
right we know
25:01
roughly the consultants that she's going to use and they do
25:03
hire some folks but
25:04
mostly it's kind of it's it's local um it's or it's people who
25:07
are in oregon um now
25:09
SPEAKER_03: that we know and then
25:10
SPEAKER_03: But Dudley's team is out of state, former Chris Christie consultants.
25:17
So Ed's team will be interesting to see kind of who he chooses
25:21
to go with and what
25:22
SPEAKER_03: the strategy is.
25:23
SPEAKER_03: And then also, I think, just like, is he going to make any arguments?
25:26
SPEAKER_02: Are you sure it's not Dwayne Younger, I thought, representative?
25:28
young or seems to be the one champion him online could be uh
25:33
you know he may be in
25:33
charge of socials or something okay uh you know again uh he may
25:38
have some time on
25:39
his hands in february if he doesn't you know have any bills to
25:42
work or anything
25:42
like that but um we'll see uh is it true that he forgot that he
25:47
missed the filing
25:48
SPEAKER_02: day
25:49
SPEAKER_03: Many people are saying,
25:50
SPEAKER_03: Brian,
25:51
SPEAKER_03: many people are saying,
25:52
SPEAKER_03: I don't think he's the only one too,
25:53
SPEAKER_03: which is,
25:54
SPEAKER_03: which is unfortunate.
25:55
SPEAKER_01: So great.
25:56
SPEAKER_03: So I think that's a lesson.
26:00
SPEAKER_03: I think that's a lesson you probably learn one time.
26:04
And then you either don't have a job or,
26:06
or you don't make that mistake again.
26:08
SPEAKER_03: Hopefully.
26:09
Well,
26:10
he can't,
26:11
I think his wife works for him because he can't really fire his
26:13
wife.
26:14
Yeah.
26:15
SPEAKER_03: I'd forgotten about that as well.
26:18
So,
26:18
Brian,
26:18
the other thing I wanted to talk about still related to
26:21
candidates,
26:22
the Oregonian.
26:23
So I have to I have to call this out because you're you're very
26:26
funny on Twitter
26:27
SPEAKER_03: and you like you go out and reply.
26:29
SPEAKER_03: Sometimes I'll see one of these pop
26:31
SPEAKER_03: And I'm just going to read this verbatim.
26:33
SPEAKER_03: So Oregonian tweets, in Oregon's most flippable U.S.
26:36
SPEAKER_03: House district,
26:37
SPEAKER_03: talking about the 5th district against Bynum,
26:39
SPEAKER_03: why have Republicans struggled to recruit a strong candidate?
26:43
SPEAKER_03: And the answer here is,
26:44
SPEAKER_03: of course,
26:45
SPEAKER_03: it's a Republican midterm election with a Republican in the White House.
26:48
SPEAKER_03: That's why.
26:49
SPEAKER_03: But...
26:50
SPEAKER_03: You replied.
26:51
You said decent article,
26:53
except where Carrie McQuiston said she helps Republicans win.
26:56
SPEAKER_03: No evidence of that like ever.
26:58
SPEAKER_03: I was dying laughing because that's so, so funny, Brian.
27:04
SPEAKER_03: And also, I think very true.
27:06
I think now there if you follow,
27:08
I think they started a group called Oregon Conservative Caucus.
27:12
SPEAKER_03: And they're very active on social media,
27:14
and they're talking about the voters that they're registering
27:17
in the North Coast.
27:18
I don't have any – I don't have any way to disprove that
27:21
they're getting that accomplished.
27:23
I think they are benefiting from trends that had already been
27:26
happening maybe
27:27
SPEAKER_03: before they got started.
27:29
And so it's a lot easier to paddle when the water is pushing
27:32
you forward versus
27:33
SPEAKER_03: paddling against –
27:35
against the stream so but i don't think also there there's
27:38
anything necessarily yet
27:39
that they can point to that's like we did this we got this done
27:43
we won this race
27:44
that was a loss that kind of stuff which is why i liked that
27:47
you kind of called
27:48
that out um because they want to be like the anti-gop right
27:53
they want to be the
27:54
SPEAKER_01: anti-republican party and
27:56
And so instead of just trying to work together,
27:58
they just want to,
27:59
like,
27:59
go against them.
28:00
SPEAKER_01: And it's great to have more groups doing different things to help us win,
28:04
but there is zero evidence that they've ever done anything to
28:07
help us win.
28:09
SPEAKER_01: So I just don't know where that's – and sometimes these reporters –
28:14
SPEAKER_01: I don't know how Carrie McQuistern gets in with them.
28:17
Maybe they call them because they want somebody from a
28:20
different voice or something
28:22
SPEAKER_01: like that,
28:23
SPEAKER_01: but it was kind of laughable.
28:26
SPEAKER_01: I remember talking to another reporter about that article, and
28:32
SPEAKER_01: I said it has nothing to do with the midterm.
28:34
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
28:35
SPEAKER_01: heck,
28:35
SPEAKER_01: if you were smart,
28:36
SPEAKER_01: maybe,
28:37
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
28:37
SPEAKER_01: apparently if you're Laurie Chavez Dreamer and you lose to Bynum,
28:40
SPEAKER_01: you get a cabinet position.
28:42
SPEAKER_01: I mean, geez, I'd probably line up to go do that.
28:45
SPEAKER_01: Seems like a pretty big upswing.
28:48
SPEAKER_01: I don't think it's that.
28:49
SPEAKER_01: I don't think people are afraid of Trump and stuff like that.
28:52
SPEAKER_01: Bynum is a nasty person.
28:55
And she will call any person running against her a racist,
29:00
a bigot,
29:01
just a Trump.
29:02
SPEAKER_01: I mean, look how she treated Lori on that race.
29:04
SPEAKER_01: I mean, she is nasty.
29:07
SPEAKER_01: And people just, you know, like, who wants to sign up for that?
29:12
To hear them just spew shit about you for seven months and just
29:18
have to even –
29:20
SPEAKER_01: Debate now,
29:21
SPEAKER_01: if I were to run against Bynum,
29:23
SPEAKER_01: I would literally call her a racist,
29:25
SPEAKER_01: and I think she is,
29:26
SPEAKER_01: and I would come out and just hammer her,
29:28
SPEAKER_01: and I'll probably get in trouble for saying this,
29:30
SPEAKER_01: but I just don't – I don't think she's a good person on any level.
29:34
SPEAKER_01: I don't think she's a good person, and I think that –
29:39
SPEAKER_01: Hopefully, Patty Adair mounts up a good campaign.
29:43
SPEAKER_01: We'll see how much money she raised and stuff.
29:44
SPEAKER_01: It's coming out pretty soon, but I think Patty's a good candidate.
29:48
SPEAKER_01: I mean, she won county commissioner in a swing district.
29:51
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think that's not really fair to call her a bad candidate.
29:55
I mean,
29:56
Jonathan Lockwood's a bad candidate,
29:57
but I mean,
29:58
Patty Adair's not a bad candidate.
30:00
SPEAKER_01: I mean, there could be better, but Patty's not bad.
30:03
SPEAKER_01: I think that's kind of shortchanging us.
30:05
I think I think basically what they're saying is,
30:07
why isn't a state legislator running?
30:09
SPEAKER_03: Right.
30:09
Like,
30:10
because you basically you have that level,
30:12
that tier of a candidate.
30:14
And that's usually the let's consider it our top tier is
30:16
somebody who's won
30:17
SPEAKER_03: election in as large a district as possible.
30:20
SPEAKER_03: Right.
30:20
Dreamer came very,
30:21
very close and and was a proven fundraiser and all those kinds
30:27
of things.
30:28
And I think part of that is just because,
30:30
one,
30:31
so I do still think the midterm plays into it.
30:34
I think if this was a 2022-style environment where we thought
30:37
it was going to be a
30:38
SPEAKER_03: wave year,
30:39
SPEAKER_03: you would have a legislator taking a crack at this.
30:41
SPEAKER_03: I think that's number one.
30:43
I do think Bynum and how she campaigns and all that stuff is
30:47
hard-nosed and also
30:48
SPEAKER_03: makes you take a look at it.
30:49
SPEAKER_03: She's not going to roll over on you 100%.
30:53
But I also don't necessarily look at her and go think she's an
30:58
amazing candidate,
30:59
SPEAKER_03: not a great communicator,
31:01
SPEAKER_03: right?
31:01
SPEAKER_03: She is going to have unlimited resources, though.
31:03
SPEAKER_03: You got to know that.
31:04
SPEAKER_03: I also think that,
31:05
SPEAKER_03: like,
31:06
SPEAKER_03: the Clackamas area,
31:07
SPEAKER_03: you don't have a ton of legislators that are Republicans that are left.
31:11
SPEAKER_03: I mean, you basically got, you know, folks like – I don't even know.
31:15
I have trouble with these districts,
31:17
and I'm looking at the map on the legislative website.
31:20
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
31:20
SPEAKER_03: Right.
31:21
Like,
31:21
you know,
31:22
and I wouldn't necessarily consider him a strong candidate.
31:24
SPEAKER_03: He is a candidate.
31:26
SPEAKER_03: But you have a lot of this area where it's like it's rural Marion.
31:29
SPEAKER_03: So you've got you've got a handful of Republican legislators,
31:31
SPEAKER_03: but then you've got Clackamas,
31:33
SPEAKER_03: which is mostly Dem right now.
31:35
SPEAKER_03: You've got Bend area, which is almost all Dem right now.
31:37
SPEAKER_03: Like there just aren't a ton of Republicans left.
31:40
SPEAKER_03: You've got Lynn County and you've got Marion County and parts of that.
31:43
SPEAKER_03: So that's where you're going to draw from the canyon area.
31:46
SPEAKER_03: Right.
31:46
SPEAKER_03: So if there I mean, like.
31:49
SPEAKER_03: I think a deal would have been a potential candidate.
31:52
SPEAKER_03: I think somebody like that.
31:54
SPEAKER_03: I know Gerard does not have any interest in Congress.
31:57
SPEAKER_03: Can't imagine.
31:58
But you could have some – certainly have somebody like that in
32:01
a different year.
32:02
But I think also people don't want to run for Congress because
32:05
Congress kind of
32:05
SPEAKER_03: sucks,
32:06
SPEAKER_03: especially when you live on the West Coast and travel is the worst.
32:09
SPEAKER_01: You just totally took my point away.
32:11
SPEAKER_01: I mean, Vicky's been asked numerous times to run –
32:14
you know for these congressional seats and she's we've been to
32:17
dc and done that but
32:18
she to get on a plane and you know knowing uh greg walden did
32:22
it for you know 22
32:23
years and he would say 35 trips back and forth every year on
32:28
that plane is just
32:29
horrible and it's not a good time you know uh of a flight and
32:34
even just going there
32:35
SPEAKER_01: to do some meetings or do some conferences like it's a
32:38
it's a bear man it is not a lot of fun it's being a congressman
32:43
woman from even
32:44
west of the mississippi is a tough chore so and i think that's
32:48
the real reality but
32:49
west coast is even a bigger chore because that portland the dc
32:52
flight and there's
32:53
one so really if you're leaving out of redmond or anywhere else
32:57
like you're you're
32:58
spending two days flying back and forth and it beats you up and
33:02
no thanks you know
33:03
SPEAKER_01: for a congress that basically does nothing
33:07
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
33:07
SPEAKER_03: You're spending Saturday and Sunday on a plane.
33:09
That's,
33:09
that's just,
33:10
and like who wants to do that or you're staying in DC the whole
33:13
time.
33:14
SPEAKER_03: And I mean,
33:15
SPEAKER_03: I think that you can,
33:17
SPEAKER_03: you can enjoy that for a little while,
33:18
SPEAKER_03: but eventually you get homesick.
33:20
SPEAKER_03: Right.
33:20
SPEAKER_03: So I don't know.
33:22
SPEAKER_03: I,
33:22
all right brian anything else we need to cover um looking at uh
33:25
potentially towards
33:26
the end of this week doing uh a draft uh so i have some have
33:30
some thoughts we could
33:31
either draft uh you know pick your top three uh team you want
33:36
fundraising for you
33:37
or we could go and we could draft our uh our if we could pick
33:42
leadership if we
33:42
could pick who was the president the speaker the coach oh i
33:47
like that that's
33:48
SPEAKER_03: We'll talk about it,
33:49
but we'll have a fun game at some point at the end of this week
33:53
to light it up.
33:54
SPEAKER_03: Because we've been news heavy.
33:55
SPEAKER_03: There's been a lot of news.
33:56
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
33:56
SPEAKER_03: So we've got to have some fun as well.
33:58
SPEAKER_03: And then I think short session, looking at some interviews.
34:01
SPEAKER_03: So look forward to that as well.
34:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, definitely.
34:04
SPEAKER_01: We'll do a lot during there.
34:05
SPEAKER_01: And then I think in all the bills that are coming out,
34:07
SPEAKER_01: we'll see who was kind of hiding their bills.
34:10
SPEAKER_01: Until they drop on Ola.
34:11
So that'll be kind of fun to see kind of what what people start
34:14
freaking out about.
34:15
SPEAKER_01: So we'll kind of go from there.
34:17
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, it should be.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: I think the governor's race.
34:19
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
34:20
SPEAKER_01: just my final thought on it is that I think maybe I mean,
34:23
SPEAKER_01: we'll get a few more,
34:24
SPEAKER_01: you know,
34:24
SPEAKER_01: people that want to get 1% of the vote that that might get into the race.
34:28
SPEAKER_01: But I think the field is set.
34:31
I feel like we got the heavy hitters of all kind of now finally
34:35
endorsed or
34:36
SPEAKER_01: finally,
34:37
SPEAKER_01: you know,
34:37
SPEAKER_01: put their name in the ring.
34:38
SPEAKER_01: And so the field is set.
34:40
SPEAKER_01: I don't anticipate anybody else.
34:43
I do want to say that I know Maxine Dexter must listen to the
34:47
pod because she did
34:48
SPEAKER_01: file for her congressional seat.
34:49
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
34:51
SPEAKER_02: So maybe my theory is all out of blown, out of whack.
34:56
SPEAKER_03: We're bullying people into running.
34:58
SPEAKER_03: Look at that.
34:59
SPEAKER_03: Last thing, Brian, real quick.
35:00
SPEAKER_03: I think I talked to you about this right before we started recording.
35:03
The forecast based on 2025 population estimates now that we're
35:08
in 2026 is that in
35:09
SPEAKER_03: reapportionment.
35:10
SPEAKER_03: So this is not redistricting, but it's related to redistricting.
35:13
SPEAKER_03: Reapportionment is how many congressional seats do you get of the 435?
35:18
SPEAKER_03: And right now, here's what we're looking at.
35:23
SPEAKER_03: California loses four seats.
35:25
SPEAKER_03: That's rough.
35:28
SPEAKER_03: Then Oregon loses one.
35:29
SPEAKER_03: Minnesota loses one.
35:30
SPEAKER_03: Wisconsin loses one.
35:32
SPEAKER_03: Illinois loses one.
35:33
SPEAKER_03: Pennsylvania, New York lose one.
35:36
SPEAKER_03: So that is the losses.
35:38
SPEAKER_03: And then on the positives...
35:39
SPEAKER_03: Idaho,
35:40
SPEAKER_03: Utah,
35:40
SPEAKER_03: Arizona all get one seat,
35:42
SPEAKER_03: which just all makes sense because if you're moving from the West Coast,
35:45
SPEAKER_03: unless you're going to North Carolina,
35:47
SPEAKER_03: Georgia,
35:47
SPEAKER_03: Florida,
35:47
SPEAKER_03: Texas,
35:48
SPEAKER_03: you're going to Idaho,
35:49
SPEAKER_03: Utah,
35:49
SPEAKER_03: Arizona.
35:50
SPEAKER_03: So those all pick up one seat.
35:51
SPEAKER_03: Georgia, North Carolina also pick up a seat.
35:53
SPEAKER_03: Florida gets two.
35:55
And California – I'm sorry,
35:57
Texas literally just picks up the four California seats for
36:00
itself.
36:01
SPEAKER_03: So four seats go to Texas.
36:04
SPEAKER_03: So right now – That's great.
36:06
SPEAKER_03: Right.
36:07
SPEAKER_03: So but we've got what we've got is Oregon has five years left,
36:12
maybe four years left to turn the population situation around
36:15
and avoid losing a
36:16
SPEAKER_03: seat.
36:16
SPEAKER_03: Maybe we get California to lose a fifth one.
36:18
SPEAKER_03: So anyway,
36:19
SPEAKER_03: if you want to not lose a congressional seat,
36:21
SPEAKER_03: Oregon,
36:22
SPEAKER_03: we probably need to fix the economy.
36:24
Reagan,
36:24
is that why Democrats want illegal aliens running all over the
36:29
country?
36:30
SPEAKER_03: Well,
36:31
SPEAKER_03: I think part of it,
36:32
SPEAKER_03: too,
36:32
SPEAKER_03: is that if this next census occurs – so Trump will not be president,
36:38
but I would guess that his Census Bureau will be the one doing
36:41
all the prep work.
36:42
SPEAKER_03: And I think the plan is to do it with not counting.
36:45
SPEAKER_03: So there was a disagreement about whether or not they were counting,
36:48
SPEAKER_03: and I don't remember how that broke down,
36:50
SPEAKER_03: but –
36:50
SPEAKER_03: They either did or did not.
36:52
SPEAKER_03: I think the Biden administration did count non-citizens.
36:55
SPEAKER_03: And Trump obviously does not want to count non-citizens.
36:58
And so I don't know if they'll have to litigate that more in
37:01
the courts or where
37:01
SPEAKER_03: we're at with that.
37:02
But ultimately,
37:03
if they don't count non-citizens,
37:05
that would be pretty significant.
37:07
And that may be what's contributing to the big loss down in
37:09
California of seats.
37:11
SPEAKER_01: Could be.
37:13
SPEAKER_01: More to come.
37:13
SPEAKER_01: All right, buddy.
37:14
SPEAKER_01: Have a good day.
37:16
SPEAKER_03: Hey, thanks, Brian.
37:17
SPEAKER_03: You too.