Latest / The Sean O'Connell Show / Byron Bader previews the NHL Draft, Direction he expects the Mammoth to go in the first round, Best drafting franchises + more

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Byron Bader previews the NHL Draft, Direction he expects the Mammoth to go in the first round, Best drafting franchises + more · The Sean O'Connell Show

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  Speaker 1: Peace, Peace by Sean O'Connell show. You were home of
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  Speaker 1: the best inside of your use.
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  Speaker 2: Let's get back to WOC from the Murdoch Chevrolet Studio
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  Speaker 2: of ESPN seven and ninety two one f M.
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  Speaker 3: Welcome back to the Sean O'Connell Show on ESPN seven
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  Speaker 3: hundred and ninety to one FM. Welcome in Byron Baderhockeyprospecting
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  Speaker 3: dot Com as we get ready for not only tonight's
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  Speaker 3: NBA Draft, where the Utah Jazz have the number two pick,
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  Speaker 3: but this weekend an NHL draft where the Utah Mammoth
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  Speaker 3: have seven picks, including number nineteen overall.
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  Speaker 1: Byron Bader, Welcome to the show. How are you, sir?
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  Speaker 2: I'm great.
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  Speaker 1: How are you doing all right?
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  Speaker 3: You know, we have we're a new hockey market still
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  Speaker 3: here in Salt Lake City, and we've kind of jumped
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  Speaker 3: on this bandwagon, and people are starting to pay attention
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  Speaker 3: to hockey prospects the way that they have basketball and
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  Speaker 3: football prospects. But still, you know, it's it's an uneducated
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  Speaker 3: eye for the most part. How deep, how good, how
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  Speaker 3: momentous is this upcoming draft class in the eyes of
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  Speaker 3: hockey experts?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say it's a pretty good draft class
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  Speaker 2: in terms of like the you know, star potential, the
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  Speaker 2: offensive potential that it has. Where it's kind of lacking
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  Speaker 2: is there's not very many centers to it, especially at
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  Speaker 2: the top level, Like even the kind of available centers
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  Speaker 2: might not be of that star variety. But it has
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  Speaker 2: a lot of you know, really offensive star defenceman potential
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  Speaker 2: as well as at the wing. So yeah, I think
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  Speaker 2: it's pretty deep in terms of what you could get,
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  Speaker 2: especially like a team like Utah at pick nineteen, But
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  Speaker 2: it just it's kind of lacking, you know, that most
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  Speaker 2: port center position. I would say, so.
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  Speaker 1: Sitting at nineteen, this this man a team already.
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  Speaker 3: They've got a pretty robust pipeline as it stands right now,
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  Speaker 3: a lot of young guys on the rise, maybe a
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  Speaker 3: couple of them that we'll see become staples on the
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  Speaker 3: NHL roster after you know, minor league stints in Canada
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  Speaker 3: and other places. And I'm not exactly We had coach
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  Speaker 3: bar On earlier, but he's you know, he's wrapped up
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  Speaker 3: in all of his own stuff. He lets the scouting
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  Speaker 3: department handle their own thing. Do you have a good
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  Speaker 3: sense of where this team might pick at nine. What
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  Speaker 3: they're looking for at nineteen.
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  Speaker 2: Just I mean just based on their prospect pool and
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  Speaker 2: kind of what it looks like. You know, they have
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  Speaker 2: some pretty good bets that wing with the Ginla and
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  Speaker 2: Boot coming up, and then they have you know, Beauduain
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  Speaker 2: and Denoine at center, So I would figure that they're
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  Speaker 2: probably at nineteen especially, and because this is such a
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  Speaker 2: deep like pool for demon, I think they're going to
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  Speaker 2: probably go for a D man at that spot because
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  Speaker 2: there's a bunch of D men that normally wouldn't be
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  Speaker 2: available that late, but they're probably gonna, you know, some
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  Speaker 2: of them will fall this year, especially the ones that
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  Speaker 2: are maybe a little bit undersized and that type of thing.
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  Speaker 2: So I think there's going to be a lot of
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  Speaker 2: good bets that are available to him. So my guess
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  Speaker 2: is there they're going to kind of look for an
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  Speaker 2: offensive D men at that spot.
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  Speaker 3: On your Twitter you talk about Caleb Dnier, who you know,
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  Speaker 3: we've we've started to really put him on the radar
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  Speaker 3: as a guy that sooner than later will be a
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  Speaker 3: piece of this Mammoth roster. And you mentioned he had
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  Speaker 3: a nice, a nice jump in production this last year
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  Speaker 3: after being drafted fourth overall by the Utah Mammoth in
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  Speaker 3: last year's draft. Your thoughts on him and how long
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  Speaker 3: it'll be before he's a staple on an NHL roster.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I think he had a really I mean,
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  Speaker 2: he's had basically perfect development in terms of how I
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  Speaker 2: look at it in terms of a production standpoint, Basically
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  Speaker 2: since his his pre draft year all the way up
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  Speaker 2: to his post draft year. It's like a perfect trajectory.
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  Speaker 2: And he's, you know, a really young center prospect, good size,
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  Speaker 2: So I would say he's probably maybe he makes the
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  Speaker 2: team out of camp, but he's probably another year away,
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  Speaker 2: and then yeah, hopefully you can kind of slot right
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  Speaker 2: in there with that that young mammoth core and start
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  Speaker 2: to grow with him and kind of maybe even like
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  Speaker 2: start to in a few years, especially like push Nick
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  Speaker 2: Schmaltz down the lineup and kind of be there one
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  Speaker 2: see is probably the overall goal. But I'd say he's
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  Speaker 2: probably still another year out, But I really I love
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  Speaker 2: the way he's going and the trajectory so far.
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  Speaker 3: You get a sense in other professional sports, especially the
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  Speaker 3: ones that we're a lot more familiar with here, of
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  Speaker 3: like how much you can trust the Cleveland Browns and
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  Speaker 3: the New York Jets when it comes to draft right
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  Speaker 3: the Utah Jazz are drafting number two tonight and they've
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  Speaker 3: had kind of mixed success when they're at the top
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  Speaker 3: of the draft on choosing the right kind of.
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  Speaker 1: Guys in your opinion, who does it best?
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  Speaker 3: Who handles the drafting process, not even necessarily the development
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  Speaker 3: that happens after, but which teams in the NHL do
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  Speaker 3: you trust most that they're gonna identify talent, use the
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  Speaker 3: correct spot, the correct pick on you know, that appropriate
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  Speaker 3: level of talent, and then maybe we'll see them on
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  Speaker 3: NHL ice eventually.
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  Speaker 1: Who's the best at this?
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  Speaker 2: It's an interesting question because it's it's not really consistent,
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  Speaker 2: like it's not being like a team that's done it right,
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  Speaker 2: like for like the last you know, three four decades.
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  Speaker 2: It's always kind of like comes in waves. So a
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  Speaker 2: team will do it right for five years and they'll
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  Speaker 2: kind of pull away from it and then you know,
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  Speaker 2: maybe the GM gets fired and he goes to another
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  Speaker 2: area and then they kind of ramp it up, and
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  Speaker 2: so it's not really a consistent thing. But i'd say
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  Speaker 2: of recent like call it the last five or six years,
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  Speaker 2: the Carolina Hurricanes probably leading the charge there because they
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  Speaker 2: never really have a top pick. They haven't chosen in
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  Speaker 2: like the top ten in years, and they don't often
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  Speaker 2: even have a first round pick, and they just won
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  Speaker 2: the Cup and they always have this pretty good system,
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  Speaker 2: but they they have some something going on there, Like
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  Speaker 2: they're probably looking at the data in a similar way
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  Speaker 2: that I do. And you know, they have all their
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  Speaker 2: quants and stuff that work over there in Carolina and
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  Speaker 2: they've they've been really good at, you know, even picking
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  Speaker 2: in the second third round where they're kind of taking
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  Speaker 2: the undervalue guy that's that everybody else is kind of
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  Speaker 2: staying away from, you know, the Russian prospects or the
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  Speaker 2: smaller prospects. They're picking those guys and their system even
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  Speaker 2: though they're Stanley Cup champions, like they have no real
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  Speaker 2: blue chip like A plus prospects in their system, but
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  Speaker 2: they have a ton of like NHL caliber prospects that
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  Speaker 2: they can just kind of put in and fill a hole.
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  Speaker 2: And they always sort of dip into that pool every
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  Speaker 2: year and they keep it replenished and they keep it
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  Speaker 2: stock full. So yeah, I would say they'd certainly be
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  Speaker 2: the best of recent times last five years or so.
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  Speaker 3: Byron Beata, our guest here from Hockeyprospecting dot Com, previewing
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  Speaker 3: an upcoming NHL draft, and of course the development of
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  Speaker 3: these prospects through the pipeline for the Utah Mammoth. Tija
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  Speaker 3: Ginla was the first Utah draft pick after the franchise
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  Speaker 3: moved here from Arizona. You know, the fans jumping on
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  Speaker 3: the bandwagon, getting excited, and you were rewarded with a
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  Speaker 3: recognizable name. At least we know Aginla, even if you're
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  Speaker 3: not a hardcore hockey type person, that's one you can recognize.
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  Speaker 3: And he had the hip problems and the surgeries and
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  Speaker 3: all that stuff, but his production at the junior level
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  Speaker 3: has been pretty impressive. How long until you see him
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  Speaker 3: skating on NHL ice.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think he's far off off at all.
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  Speaker 2: You know, he has that pedigree from the name, and
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  Speaker 2: like you said, he kind of had the injuries, so
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  Speaker 2: he's sort of stalled out a little bit kind of
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  Speaker 2: post draft that that first season post draft, but this
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  Speaker 2: year he took a big step forward. You know, he
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  Speaker 2: was he was big in the world juniors and all that,
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  Speaker 2: so I would say he's probably going to be in
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  Speaker 2: the NHL next year, whether that's he's you know, in
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  Speaker 2: there from camp right away, or if it's maybe he
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  Speaker 2: goes to the AHL for twenty games or half a
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  Speaker 2: season type thing and then he's up there. But just
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  Speaker 2: just it's kind of growing and kind of rapidly developing,
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  Speaker 2: and the hype around him and stuff. I think he's
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  Speaker 2: he's going to get a decent shot this year. For sure.
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  Speaker 1: You started this business. This is you.
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  Speaker 3: Hockey prospecting is your baby, this is your thing, And
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  Speaker 3: like we're just kind of scratching the surface in realizing
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  Speaker 3: how extensive this process is. You've got international prospects, you've
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  Speaker 3: got American college prospects, You've got this whole thing where
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  Speaker 3: you get drafted, then you go back and you play
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  Speaker 3: somewhere else, and it's just I mean, it's a lot
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  Speaker 3: like Major League Baseball, where maybe you're the number one
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  Speaker 3: pick but we don't see you for five years, or
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  Speaker 3: maybe you're like a maclin Celabrini, you're the number one
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  Speaker 3: pick and you're ready right now. Byron, why why is
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  Speaker 3: this your passion project? Why is this the thing you
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  Speaker 3: decided to do?
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  Speaker 2: Like I've always kind of I've always been a big
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  Speaker 2: stats guy. Even when I was a little kid, I
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  Speaker 2: just loved, you know, looking at hockey and different stats
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  Speaker 2: and tracking and stuff, and I just kind of I
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  Speaker 2: fell into this thing with prospects and looking at this
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  Speaker 2: sort of you know, the way I built this model.
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  Speaker 2: I'm an analytics guy, and I was looking at these
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  Speaker 2: numbers and looking at players coming up, and I was
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  Speaker 2: kind of looking at, you know, this equivalency number, which
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  Speaker 2: is essentially this normalized number that you take all these
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  Speaker 2: different leagues and they all have these different translations of
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  Speaker 2: how production from that league leads to the NHL. And
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  Speaker 2: then I kind kind of was looking at it and
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  Speaker 2: I was looking at players coming up, Like Johnny Gudreau
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  Speaker 2: was one of the big ones for me as a
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  Speaker 2: Calgary guy, and he was just making these like massive
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  Speaker 2: jumps in college and everybody was super excited about him.
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  Speaker 2: And then he made the NHL and about ten games
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  Speaker 2: in you could just see, oh, yeah, this guy's going
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  Speaker 2: to be a superstar, and he turned into one. So
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  Speaker 2: I was kind of wondering, you know, is that what
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  Speaker 2: like a superstar looks like before the moment before they
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  Speaker 2: make the NHL is kind of where it started from.
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  Speaker 2: And then I just started looking at these numbers and
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  Speaker 2: developing a model over several years and then sure enough,
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  Speaker 2: you know, as I got more and more data, it
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  Speaker 2: was just kind of proved out. Like you know, the
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  Speaker 2: game kind of changes over the decades, but these certain
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  Speaker 2: archetypes of players or these certain looks of players in
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  Speaker 2: terms of their sort of normalized production, and you know
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  Speaker 2: at what age they're doing it like, it's very consistent,
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  Speaker 2: and these players tend to make the NHL and then
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  Speaker 2: you know, these different types of players tend to become superstars.
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  Speaker 2: So it just kind of naturally happened. I've always been
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  Speaker 2: an analytics guy and a numbers guy and just fell
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  Speaker 2: into it. And yeah, I've been been going with it
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  Speaker 2: for about six years now, so it's been a fun ride.
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  Speaker 1: What are your numbers?
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  Speaker 3: And I already referenced him, but Maclin Celebrini makes me
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  Speaker 3: nervous because you got where this, you know, this Western
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  Speaker 3: Conference team here in Utah and the Sharks have what
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  Speaker 3: their third top four pick in the last three drafts
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  Speaker 3: or something coming up, and obviously Maclin is special. But
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  Speaker 3: I'm looking at him and I'm seeing the names that
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  Speaker 3: he's putting his his own name next to guys that
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  Speaker 3: have achieved as much as he has this early in
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  Speaker 3: their careers, and I'm like, oh, man, are we watching
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  Speaker 3: the beginning of like one of the all time greats?
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  Speaker 3: Is this going to be someone that prevents a Utah
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  Speaker 3: Mammoth team, you know, three four, five years from now
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  Speaker 3: from being real Cup contenders because they're going up against
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  Speaker 3: one of the great ones. What does your model in
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  Speaker 3: your eyes tell you about Maclin?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean model wise, you know, at the time
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  Speaker 2: of the draft, he has this look. I call this
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  Speaker 2: the kind of certain certain superstars, certain star looks. So
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  Speaker 2: everybody who's ever looked like this in the model going
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  Speaker 2: into the draft has basically turned into a point per
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  Speaker 2: game superstar. So that's exactly what he looked like at
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  Speaker 2: the draft. So I kind of wasn't too surprised that
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  Speaker 2: he kind of immediately hit the scene and you know,
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  Speaker 2: started putting up one hundred point seasons and that type
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  Speaker 2: of thing. Yeah, I think you're absolutely looking at, you know,
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  Speaker 2: one of the next greats, you know, the Connor McDavid's,
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  Speaker 2: the Sidney Crosby's, the Alex Ovechkins, And yeah, I think
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  Speaker 2: he's going to be a big problem for a lot
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  Speaker 2: of teams in the Western Conference and you know the
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  Speaker 2: San Jose prospect pool also, I mean, Celebrini's sort of
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  Speaker 2: graduated out of it now and will Smith has graduated
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  Speaker 2: out of it, but they're still so stocked up and
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  Speaker 2: they have the second overall pick this year, so I
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  Speaker 2: think they are going to be a very big problem
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  Speaker 2: over the next decade, and Celebrini is certainly going to
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  Speaker 2: be leading that charge. Is one of the best in
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  Speaker 2: the game for sure.
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  Speaker 3: Who's Toronto going to take number one?
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  Speaker 2: I mean I've heard it's it's gonna be McKenna, which
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  Speaker 2: I don't think would be the wrong choice because I mean,
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  Speaker 2: he's he's he's one of these these guys in the
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  Speaker 2: model that looks like a certain superstar as well. I
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  Speaker 2: mean he's not the center position, he's not the fastest,
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  Speaker 2: but he can slow the game down to his pace
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  Speaker 2: and just has unreal vision. So you know, if Austin
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  Speaker 2: Matthews is staying there for a while, I think he
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  Speaker 2: would be a great setup man for Matthews to get
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  Speaker 2: back to that you know, sixty sixty goal mark again.
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  Speaker 2: And then you have Stenberg, who's the other option, who
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  Speaker 2: also looks really really good in the model, more of
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  Speaker 2: a two way guy, but maybe not as offensively gifted
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  Speaker 2: as McKenna. But I mean, all all indications sat like
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  Speaker 2: it's McKenna. I mean, I've even read reports that they've
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  Speaker 2: already told that him himself that they're gonna they're gonna
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  Speaker 2: pick him. So I think they're gonna make a nice,
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  Speaker 2: nice and easy and pick mckennaon on draft night. For sure.
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  Speaker 3: This is not a draft or pipeline or prospects question.
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  Speaker 3: But the ka Chucks are now teammates in Florida after
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: a trade sent Brady to join his brother. Your thoughts
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  Speaker 3: on that and not only you know, brothers getting to
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  Speaker 3: play together. Great, it's a fun like family story, but
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  Speaker 3: what it means hockey wise for Florida.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm I'm from Calgary, so I
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: live the Matthew Kuchuck to Florida trade. And then when
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  Speaker 2: the Brady one broke the other day, it was kind
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: of surprise him but not really like it was kind
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  Speaker 2: of the same feel in Ottawa there when he was
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: knocked out of the playoffs. He's saying things in the media,
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: but things are kind of coming out and just you know,
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: his demeter and stuff, and then everything with like the
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: Olympic team and stuff. It just seemed like he kind
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: of wanted to change. And they've talked about for years,
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  Speaker 2: I mean, both of them playing together, and they've always
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: loved that, you know, playing on Team USA and the
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: different like USC teams have been put together. You could
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: tell that they really wanted to play together. And here
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  Speaker 2: we are. So, I mean Florida was already a juggernaut.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, they missed the playoffs this year, but like
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  Speaker 2: they have more stars than anybody, they kind of are
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  Speaker 2: managed to fit them all in there. So I think
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  Speaker 2: they're going to rebound next year and be right back
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  Speaker 2: in there in the in the contender conversation. And Brady like,
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  Speaker 2: I think he's a great fit for maybe you know,
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  Speaker 2: one spot that they're missing, that sort of grit and
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: size and scoring touch and just feistiness around the net.
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  Speaker 2: So I think he's like a perfect ad for them.
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  Speaker 2: And yeah, they might be looking at another Stanley Cup
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: here and in a year or two.
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: So Byron, appreciate your time and all your expertise and knowledge.
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  Speaker 1: Enjoy the draft, and we'll catch up soon.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: Thank you very much.
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  Speaker 3: Byronbader, Hockeyprospecting dot Com. He thinks that the Mammoth maybe
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: go defenseman at number nineteen seven picks in this upcoming draft.
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: NHL Draft begins on Thursday, continues into Friday,