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The Favorites - AFC North Betting Preview with Warren Sharp · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by a Bet
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I'm joined as always buy my cost, my companion, Michel Padre,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: my BFF professional Better, Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Hello Chad. Did you enjoy your hard knocks?
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: Oh?
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: My god? Let me Ticele and Simon tell me. I
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: got home from I was in New York City yesterday, Manhattan.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I was in the Action Network offices and I got
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: home ten after nine. My son was there. He was
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: waiting that it was already teed up.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: It must be nice to be loved by someone.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: We were so ready and I loved it. I loved
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: every second of it. I love. The intro of Chicago
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: felt so nostalgic for me, especially because my son and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I had just been in Chicago the week before with
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: my dad and we had gone to half the places
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: that are sort of in the intro when they are
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: showing the beauty shots of Chicago when it was great.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: So I thought it was magnificent. I thought it was
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: great the way they showed Kayleb Williams struggling. I like
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: the way he presented himself. I'm not sold on Abriflus yet.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: You know, I feel like this could be the one
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: and done, and I'm curious to see how they portray
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: his relationship with Kayleb Williams. They already tried to set
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: it up as something that needs to be special. I
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: know this is stupid. At one point, when they were
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: in the locker room and they showed the players sort
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: of in their uniforms, I said to my kid, I
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: just love those uniforms. Just seeing the Bears, those white pants,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: those Navy jerseys.
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: I just they're like Green Bay, right. They have never
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: they have never changed, or have they changed since.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: I mean they have the throwback where they had like
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: these wolverine style helmets from the nineteen twenties and stuff.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: But it's been a c with Navy jerseys in white
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: pants forever.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: It's perfect.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Thank you for asking. I loved it. Loved it. Also.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: You know what I love. I love the fact we're
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: doing these division previews. And for today's fourth installment in
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: our annual NFL Division preview series, we discussed the AFC North.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: We are joined by a very special returning guest. He's
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: an NFL expert, and he is fresh off the release
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: of his five hundred and fifty nine page Sharp Football
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Analysis twenty twenty four NFL preview available now. I have
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: been reading it. I have been tearing pages out and
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: circling things. The strength of schedule kings that we use
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: in the podcast for our division previews are all from
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: his book. It is Warren Sharp.
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: Anybody, Thank you, Chad.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you're back. We got a lot to discuss
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: the AFC North best division in football, rest, which you
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: have done a phenomenal job the past few years. We've
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: had you on the podcast talking about this determining rest
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: as a factor in the schedule and how it can
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: be advantageous or disadvantageous to teams based on when they
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: are getting teams off of buys, when they are getting
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: teams off of short weeks, and the same is true
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: for them off of buys, off of short weeks, etc.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: It's becoming more and more complicated with the expanded schedule.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: A lot of teams have an advantage or a lot
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: of teams have a disadvantage, including teams in this division.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: We're going to get to all that, plus our breakdown
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: of where the value is in the division. As a reminder,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six five.
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  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and
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  Speaker 1: president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio,
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  Speaker 1: Virginia or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Condition restrictions apply. Reminder every division in
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: nineteen in the past twenty one years, an NFL team
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: has gone from worst to first in its division. I'm
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: telling you right now that status extra relevant in the
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: AFC North because the Ravens were in first place last year.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: The Cincinnati Bengals were in the last place. All right,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: let's start with the Ravens.
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Ten to one win the Super Bowl plus one forty
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: to win the Division. Ten and a half is a
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: season win total schedule fourth hardest according to season win
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: totals aggregated and then checked by Warren Sharp Again, we
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: look at oline and D line. That is a key
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: indicator for us on the quality of a team. O
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: line rank twenty fifth, not great, D line and uninspiring twelfth.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Warren as a mid Atlantic coaster, I will see the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: floor to you. Thoughts on the Ravens.
• 5:51
  Speaker 6: Well, I can't start, you know, by reading the chapter
• 5:54
  Speaker 6: on the Ravens. I can't start talking about the twenty
• 5:56
  Speaker 6: twenty four Ravens before acknowledging how that offense change in
• 6:00
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty three, kicking Greg Roman out of there, bring
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: in a far more modern style of offense, and what
• 6:08
  Speaker 6: that did to help the Baltimore Ravens. And obviously they
• 6:11
  Speaker 6: were the No More seed thirteen and four record last year.
• 6:14
  Speaker 6: It was very reminiscent of the offense that they were
• 6:18
  Speaker 6: utilizing in the twenty nineteen season when they first burst
• 6:21
  Speaker 6: onto the scene, not from the style of offense, but
• 6:24
  Speaker 6: from the intent, and that was to jump out and score.
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: Points early in games.
• 6:30
  Speaker 6: When I look back, and I wrote about this in
• 6:32
  Speaker 6: the book, when I look back at the opening touchdown
• 6:35
  Speaker 6: drive rate, how often are teams scoring touchdowns on that
• 6:39
  Speaker 6: opening drive In twenty twenty two, Greg Romans last year,
• 6:42
  Speaker 6: they were down at six percent, one of the worst
• 6:44
  Speaker 6: in the NFL. Last year they went all the way
• 6:46
  Speaker 6: up to forty two percent, which was second best in
• 6:49
  Speaker 6: the NFL. Their score rate of touchdowns in the first
• 6:53
  Speaker 6: quarter was one of the best in the NFL, all
• 6:56
  Speaker 6: the way up at twenty seven percent and improvement over
• 6:58
  Speaker 6: eleven percent the prior year. They were much better on
• 7:02
  Speaker 6: the inside of the red zone as well, and in
• 7:05
  Speaker 6: goal to go situations, which is shocking that Lamar Jackson
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: led team is not efficient down inside of the red zone,
• 7:11
  Speaker 6: but that's what they were during the last year of
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: Greg Roman's term. They were in the last four years
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: that he was there, the number one most run heavy
• 7:20
  Speaker 6: and the number three slowest pace team in the NFL.
• 7:24
  Speaker 6: Those massively changed last year. They were fifteenth in pace,
• 7:28
  Speaker 6: sixth in pass rate, and they used a lot more
• 7:31
  Speaker 6: eleven personnel, still one of the lower rates in the NFL,
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: but they had been the lowest in the NFL for
• 7:36
  Speaker 6: over a decade twelve percent usage of eleven personnel. That
• 7:39
  Speaker 6: went all the way up to forty seven percent. So
• 7:42
  Speaker 6: they get Derrick Henry now. And one of the things
• 7:46
  Speaker 6: that I think is going to be interesting about that
• 7:48
  Speaker 6: infusion of Derrick Henry is what do defenses do to
• 7:52
  Speaker 6: counter that? Because that's the way I always look at
• 7:54
  Speaker 6: football as what's the counter move.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: By the defense?
• 7:56
  Speaker 6: Well, obviously I would think that they would try to
• 7:59
  Speaker 6: load box as more frequently. Well, Lamar Jackson was the
• 8:02
  Speaker 6: NFL's number one quarterback versus loaded boxes last season on
• 8:07
  Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty eight pass attempts that he faced
• 8:09
  Speaker 6: loaded boxes, which was a lower rate than he had faced.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: In prior years.
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: Obviously because in prior years they were a run focused
• 8:15
  Speaker 6: off offense, so they got more loaded boxes last year
• 8:18
  Speaker 6: fewer loaded boxes. But he was the number one quarterback
• 8:21
  Speaker 6: in EPA per dropback, number one in success rate number three,
• 8:24
  Speaker 6: and completion rate number four yards per attempt against loaded boxes,
• 8:28
  Speaker 6: So that mesh point is going to be interesting to
• 8:32
  Speaker 6: see if they load those boxes, are they going to
• 8:34
  Speaker 6: try to get some advantage there by doing some play
• 8:36
  Speaker 6: action and throwing over the top of those linebackers. Where
• 8:40
  Speaker 6: Lamar was excellent last year, they were better in play
• 8:43
  Speaker 6: action under Todd Monkin last year, and that was before
• 8:46
  Speaker 6: having Derrick Henry as well. They also didn't really have
• 8:49
  Speaker 6: a lot of luck factors go in their favor. This
• 8:52
  Speaker 6: is something I know you guys over at Action focus
• 8:54
  Speaker 6: a lot on some of the luck factors, but from
• 8:56
  Speaker 6: it whether it was injury luck where they were nineteenth,
• 8:58
  Speaker 6: or field goal luck where they were twenty third, or
• 9:00
  Speaker 6: fumble luck where they were twenty first, or penalty yards
• 9:03
  Speaker 6: against where they were thirty first, and nothing was really
• 9:06
  Speaker 6: massively going their way. I'm worried about their defense a
• 9:10
  Speaker 6: little bit with the loss of the defensive coordinator they
• 9:13
  Speaker 6: promote from within. I'm worried about the change overhaul in
• 9:16
  Speaker 6: their offensive line where they lose Zeitler, Morgan Moses and
• 9:20
  Speaker 6: John Simpson Simpsons and Zeidler, where there are two players
• 9:24
  Speaker 6: that led the team in snaps along that line last year.
• 9:26
  Speaker 6: Both of those guys are gone. Rest is massively in
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: their favor. We talked about that in the podcast that
• 9:33
  Speaker 6: I came on a couple of months ago, so I
• 9:35
  Speaker 6: won't rehash all the rest elements. If you guys want
• 9:37
  Speaker 6: to talk about later, we can, but they're much.
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: Better in rest.
• 9:41
  Speaker 6: I do want to hear what you guys have to
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: think about Lamar Jackson's weight cut, and I'll save my
• 9:49
  Speaker 6: response to that for if you guys have a comment
• 9:52
  Speaker 6: on your end. But overall, I think the Baltimore Ravens,
• 9:56
  Speaker 6: because of the style of offense has been modernized so much.
• 10:00
  Speaker 6: They are going to have an advantage with Lamar Jackson
• 10:03
  Speaker 6: and Derek Henry back there on offense and offense dictating
• 10:05
  Speaker 6: things in terms of scoring quickly, dictating the flow of
• 10:09
  Speaker 6: the game. But I do have concerns. I don't think
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: they're going to be as successful as they were last year.
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: I've concerned along that offensive line. I've concerned with the
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: passing attack as well. I still don't love their wide
• 10:20
  Speaker 6: receiving core. I mean, Lamar Jackson still doesn't have an
• 10:23
  Speaker 6: elite wide receiving corps, never has had that. The story
• 10:27
  Speaker 6: is the same this upcoming season. So there's a lot
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: to like about this team just because of Lamar and
• 10:34
  Speaker 6: the new style of offense from last year, But there
• 10:36
  Speaker 6: are more questions this year than there were last year.
• 10:39
  Speaker 6: And for that reason, you know, it's hard for me.
• 10:42
  Speaker 6: I'm certainly not laying a future on the Ravens to
• 10:44
  Speaker 6: win this division. I think it's going to be hard
• 10:47
  Speaker 6: for them to repeat Simon.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: I think you and I agree, like this is not
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: a team that for a future we're all that interested
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: in right now.
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: No, we were sitting here last year, were they better
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: Ravens team getting twenty one to one?
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Twenty to one on their Super Bowl futures?
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: And now we're paying a premium because it feels like,
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: you know, Lamar's coming off at MVP, and people really
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: don't look at what we're talking about here with Warren, right,
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: Warren's breaking down their schedule, also breaking down the fact
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: that you know, it's a big deal they've lost guys
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: in the offensive line and you go to the defensive side.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: That's the biggest deal to me, right using it losing
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: their defensive coordinator to Seattle, that's a big deal.
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: Like he was the perfect guy for that defense where
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: he knew exactly what to do with Kyle Hamilton, like
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: they were so in unison of him playing that Ed
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: Reid role of wherever he wants to go. It worked
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: on the defense, he was always in the right spot,
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: which again we don't know yet what the new defense
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: will look like, but I do know it's gonna be
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: a loss up front right now, Ivan Patrick Queen not
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: having those veteran guys along the d line, that's gonna
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: be a big deal. So you know, to me, this
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: is a team that even if Zay Flowers does take
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: that next step and he does become a number one
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: receiver for this team and a guy they can trust,
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: it feels like they just lost too much.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Last year was just the year. Last year. I mean,
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: people don't remember because it feels so far away.
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: We had no offense, Like offense will kind of died
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: in the NFL, especially by the time it got to
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: January December, it really had fallen off. This was a
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: team it just did not matter like this. This team
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: was so good until they ran into that Chiefs team.
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: They literally were months of just dominating offense. It was
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: just Lamar could get any throw he wanted, and when
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: they wanted to run the ball, they could get any
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: yards that like, they were picking up four or five
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: yards every time they carried the ball. It was just
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: a machine. And then we talked about that defense last year.
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: They were so good at playing with the league. Once
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: they had a lead on you, you were done. Like it
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: really was the perfectly set up team last year, the Ravens.
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: And we see it all the time in football, it's regression,
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: like you have the really high year, the following year,
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: you take a step back because it's a lot of
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: new guys, usually lose coaches, right, teams are gonna just
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: be different the following year. They're the perfect example of it, right,
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: they were just so perfect last year. That was the year,
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: like they had the team to take down the Chiefs.
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: They had everything right there. They had team to take
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: down the forty nine ers, and it just didn't work
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: out right because unfortunately, weird things happen in the playoffs.
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: They kind of lost their mind there and they had
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: Lamar throwing the ball forty times and that's just not
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: who they want to be. So I honestly don't I
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: don't mind what Lamar is doing with the weight, right,
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: if that's what he feels comfortable playing at and if
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: he feels quicker, and that's that's better for Lamar. More
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: power to him because people are like, oh, you might
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: get hurt now that like, no player thinks that way.
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: No players think themselves, Well, if I lose twenty pounds
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: or ten pounds, I'm any more subtle injury.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: That just that doesn't really cost their mind.
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: I don't know if there's science backing up either, because
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: if there was, I think their team would be putting
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: pressure on him to put back on some muscles. So yeah,
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: their win totals ten and a half. Chat that's a
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: rich for this division. We already talked about ten to one.
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: We wouldn't pay that, and their division odds at plus
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: one forty. I just went touch either there's another team
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: we liked bed this division. So yeah, Ravens small to
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: the under for me, right, I have him at ten wins.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: It's not that big of a discrepancy. At ten and
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: a half, I just have him half a game under
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: that win total. So again, they won one point fo game.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: I could easily see them hitting this win total. But
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: to me, I would not be playing the over. It
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: just doesn't not feel like there's value there.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: They're a spot that team to me for this year.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: John Harbaugh past twenty years one of the most profitable
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: coaches in the NFL, Bill Belichick, Mike McCarthy, Mike Zimmer,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton, Murdy Schottenheimer, John Harbaugh, and then Jim Harbaugh.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: But can you name, excuse me, the most profitable coach
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: week one past twenty years in the Action Network database
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh, John Harbaugh. If we look at just week one,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: John Harbaugh is twelve and four against the spread and
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: has failed to cover just once in the last eight years. Reminder,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: and I know which side we like already. Baltimore is
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a field goal underdog at Kansas City in Week one.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Of course, we are taking the Ravens in Week one
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: against the Chiefs as three point underdogs. That's an simon.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: There's no question on that. No, like there are gonna
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: be spots. Warren points out the rest John Harbaugh is
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: amazing on extra rest. If he's got ten or more
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: days to prepare. The Ravens are twenty seven or eight
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: straight up, two twenty thirteen and two against the spread.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Here are the four spots are gonna want to think
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: about betting the Ravens. In addition to Week one, they've
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: got nine days rest before Week two against the Raiders
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: ten before November seventeenth game against the Steelers, two weeks
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: before they play the Giants in mid December, and ten
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: days before they play the Browns in the last week
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: of the season. So, Warren, you talked about rest. I
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: know we don't love the Ravens futures, but there are
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: good spots here for them to think about, right, Yeah.
• 16:03
  Speaker 6: Absolutely, And and a couple of points to collab on
• 16:06
  Speaker 6: both what you guys have been saying. That John Harbaugh
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: record in Week one. I wonder if part of that
• 16:12
  Speaker 6: is the way that he gets this team to play
• 16:14
  Speaker 6: in the preseason. Right they approach the preseason with a
• 16:17
  Speaker 6: far different intention. They're trying to win all of these games.
• 16:20
  Speaker 6: That competitive fire is flowing in this team year and
• 16:23
  Speaker 6: a year out in the preseason. Maybe that does actually
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: have an advantage considering their number one coach team in
• 16:29
  Speaker 6: the ATS world in your action database, So that could
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: be a factor there.
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: Absolutely.
• 16:35
  Speaker 6: With regard to the spot edges, I want to add
• 16:38
  Speaker 6: that I list all the spot edges in the book.
• 16:41
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• 16:55
  Speaker 6: value for you. As it relates to their defense. One
• 16:57
  Speaker 6: of the things that I will add is this defense
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: played with the number two lightest boxes on average last season,
• 17:05
  Speaker 6: and they were basically encouraging you to run the football
• 17:08
  Speaker 6: against them, and their defense was terrible against the run.
• 17:11
  Speaker 6: They ranked number thirty two in EPA per rush, dead
• 17:14
  Speaker 6: last in yards per carry, dead last, and success rate
• 17:16
  Speaker 6: on first half runs down the stretch of the season.
• 17:19
  Speaker 6: They were playing with these light boxes. They were able
• 17:21
  Speaker 6: to get away with that because they were playing with
• 17:24
  Speaker 6: a lead so much because of their first half offense
• 17:28
  Speaker 6: that you did not feel like you could run the
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: ball late in games at all, because you're playing from behind,
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: and you know that everything is built off of like
• 17:37
  Speaker 6: the game state that you're in. And I buy into
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: this so much, and when I am talking to coaches
• 17:43
  Speaker 6: talking about this about how you need to get out
• 17:46
  Speaker 6: to those leads and so like, let's say the Baltimore
• 17:48
  Speaker 6: Ravens struggle a little bit more this year at jumping
• 17:51
  Speaker 6: out to leads. That's going to impact that second half
• 17:53
  Speaker 6: defense a ton, and opponents are going to be able
• 17:55
  Speaker 6: to run on them a little bit more in those situations.
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: Last point to me on the team this year as
• 18:01
  Speaker 6: it relates to the weight cut. One of the reasons
• 18:03
  Speaker 6: that I think Lamar went ahead and did this. You know,
• 18:06
  Speaker 6: remember that picture that got tweeted out like a year
• 18:08
  Speaker 6: ago or so where Lamar has his gut sticking ice
• 18:11
  Speaker 6: calling a bag of popcorn in one hand, in a
• 18:13
  Speaker 6: soda and another you know, just made his rounds on Twitter.
• 18:17
  Speaker 6: Lamar's yards per carry on scrambles have gone down precipitously
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: year after year. He was averaging ten point four in
• 18:26
  Speaker 6: twenty nineteen, ten point four yards per carry on scrambles
• 18:29
  Speaker 6: last year. That was at seven point sorry in twenty
• 18:32
  Speaker 6: twenty two, that was at seven point nine. Last year,
• 18:35
  Speaker 6: that had dropped all the way down to six point six,
• 18:38
  Speaker 6: despite the fact that he faced seven man boxes on
• 18:41
  Speaker 6: just twenty seven percent of those scrambles, which is the
• 18:44
  Speaker 6: far far lower.
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: Rate than what he was facing before.
• 18:46
  Speaker 6: So right, more opportunities to run and he was scrambling
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: for fewer yards per carry when he blitzed and then scrambled.
• 18:54
  Speaker 6: He dropped from eleven point four yards per carry from
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: twenty nineteen to twenty twenty two all the way down
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: to four point seven yards per carry last year. So
• 19:03
  Speaker 6: those like quick instinct decisions to go ahead and scramble,
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: which are the number one most effective play in football,
• 19:10
  Speaker 6: They're more effective than any type of dropback, than any
• 19:12
  Speaker 6: type of route. If you have a designed pass play
• 19:16
  Speaker 6: where the quarterback drops back and then he decides based
• 19:19
  Speaker 6: on the look or the coverage or the passer so
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: he wants to scramble and finds an open run line.
• 19:23
  Speaker 6: There is not a play out there that is more
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: efficient at from an EPA perspective, from a yard per
• 19:28
  Speaker 6: play perspective, and Lamar was terrible in those relatively speaking
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: to earlier parts in his career. So if he can
• 19:34
  Speaker 6: get a little bit more of that burst and quickness
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: back those first few steps to get through that offensive
• 19:39
  Speaker 6: line and then make something positive on those scrambles, definitely
• 19:42
  Speaker 6: are going to help, because he's dropping back to pass
• 19:44
  Speaker 6: a lot more now in this offense than he was
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: in prior iteration. So but I agree completely with you, guys,
• 19:52
  Speaker 6: spot play as opposed to future play.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see how operators think about Lamar
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Jackson's rushing totals game to game. Do they go by
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: what his numbers have sort of descended to or do
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: they go by what the public opinion thinks and always
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: shade it a little bit higher because they know that
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: squares are generally going to bet Lamar Jackson over based
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: on his reputation. All right, we love the Bengals. Simon
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals game roaring back thirteen to one to
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. We bet them at twenty to
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: one early in the spring plus one forty five to
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: win the division already feels too low. Their season win
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: total is ten and a half. Their strength the schedule
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: is sixth. Easiest Oline rank is twenty one. Really comes
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: down to Orlando Brown Junior. Can he get back to
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the form that made him one of the better tackles
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: in the leagues with the Ravens and with the Chiefs
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: last year in his first with the Bengals was a
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: middling D line rank is also middlenk thirteenth lost DJ reader,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: which is tough. But they do have Trey Hendrickson who
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: is a dominant ed rusher and when you have that,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: that helps raise the stakes for your performance. And they
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: also have lou An Aroumo, who was still one of
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: the most creative defensive coiners in the league. So they
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: have to be one of the leading candidates along with
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers Simon for worse to first in the division.
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and we talk every year this is there's always
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: some lazy teams for us to have to do work on,
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: and this is one of those teams where it's just like, oh,
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: their star quarterback was hurt last year, now they have
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: a last place schedule. Don't don't overthink this, right, It's
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: it's really that simple sometimes. And you know, I think
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: you can touch on DJ Reader leaving is a big
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: deal to me, right that defense. I understand whether there's
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: people that have questions about their defense. And then you
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: can go to the offensive line and people have questions
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: about the offensive line as well. And you know, to me,
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: me and you talked about Chad, we think that organization
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: is failing them right now, right they're failing Joe Burrow.
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, he's already having major surgery on his wrist
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: right taking. I don't know if he took something to
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: have his leg and put into his wrist, and they
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: said he had a fifty to fifty percent chance just
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: coming back from it, like having full motion in his wrist.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: So not not.
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: Only did he beat those odds, he beat the odds
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: of him actually be able to come back and have
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: you know, power and grip on throwing the football again,
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: Like that was not something I was guaranteed, which I
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: couldn't believe, Like it felt like that shit in a
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: bigger story of this offseason. It really wasn't, because obviously
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: it worked out. Right, He's in camp, he's throwing dimes
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: in the corner. It feels like he had two days
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: read a little bit of rust and now it's all gone.
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: And every clip I've seen it just looks like old
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: Joe Burrow. So no worry there, Right, So it's it
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: does stink that their offensive line still has questions. Right,
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: I seen your notes here. You have a little thing
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: about Orlando Brown, right, like is he gonna is he
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: gonna be the guy we need him.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: To beat and really protect Joe Burrow.
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: We don't have the answer for that, but we do
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: have the answers for is you know, we took it
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: from Warren here, it's like the Ravens who have the
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: six hardest schedule or the fourth art schedule because they
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: have they're the one seed and at the first place schedule,
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: this team who was last has one of the easiest
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: schedule in Football's that's a huge deal of people like
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: that really does matter, especially when it's like, you know,
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: the Ravens might have a run where they go back
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: to back. You know, they might go to Houston, they
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: might go to the Bills, they might go to the Chiefs.
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: The Bengals don't have that. They're literally playing you know,
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: the Patriots and like really bad fourth place teams from
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: last year. So yeah, it's all there, Chad. Obviously, we
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: don't want people to bet their future adds. We already
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: told people to bet in the spring of twenty to one.
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: Now it's down to thirteen, fourteen and one. A lot
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: of books. I wouldn't bet that yet because we've seen
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: historically Joe Burrow, I know, he's been injured in the
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: past and they've come out slow because of that, and
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: he's not dealing with that right now. Historically, though, they
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: do come out slow. This Bengals team and Joe Burrow.
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: So you might be able to get better value in
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: a couple of weeks after the season starts. If they
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: start one and two or you know, one in three
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: something crazy happens like that, you be able to get
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: better value on that bet them betting right now divisional odds.
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: Actually I don't I don't mind that chat plus one
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: forty divisional odds if you want to bet that. I
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: still think there's some value there the fact they're at
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: a plus number, just because I do think they're right
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: there the Ravens skill level wise. But then you factor
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: in the fact that they have that such an easier schedule,
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: It's like, Okay, that gives that to me, makes them
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: the odds on favor for this division right now. Right
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: I think they're the best team in the most complete team.
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: So yeah, if you want to take their over ten
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: and a half, you can. Depends on your book, it
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: might be juiced and minus one fifty minus one forty.
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: To me, if I don't want to pay that big
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: because I've been paying big in a lot of other places,
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: I'll just I'll just take the plus one forty and
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: let that ride. So I like, I definitely like the
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: division odds better that I do like their win total.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good point, Like I'm saying, it's a
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: little bit cheap, but I think that's just because in
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: my head the value of them is so much higher
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: and not the expectations are so much higher. So it
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: feels like plus one forty five. I'm just like, I
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: feel like at that number, i'd want more. You make
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: a really good point about Joe Burrow's career. So here's
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: something interesting. Thirty six twenty two and one against the spread. Overall,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: His ATS struggles are early in the season, two and
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: six against the spread in his first two games of
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the year thirty four to sixteen. The rest of the time,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: that two and six mark is tied with Kirk Cousins
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: for the worst mark of fifty nine quarterbacks since Joe
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Burrow was drafted. The first two games this year Patriots
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: minus nine. There's a lot of reasons why we are
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: we might bet the Patriots.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: We haven't got it week, we said have as per set,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: we're probably gonna do.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: It, Yeah, exactly, and then they play the Chiefs and
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: there's no line set yet. Warren thoughts on the Bengals.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: I agree with Simon this is not an overthinking one.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Top three quarterback in the NFL who didn't play last
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: year kind of gets forgotten coming back playing the six
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: easiest schedule. Does nothing else really matters.
• 26:19
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think in this case as simple is better.
• 26:22
  Speaker 6: I will say that Presett better be starting week one.
• 26:24
  Speaker 6: I've got some bets that were set. He was laying
• 26:27
  Speaker 6: like minus four hundred that Persett is in higher. I
• 26:29
  Speaker 6: think the Perssett will start week one. It's looking good,
• 26:33
  Speaker 6: so I think he should be. He should be there.
• 26:37
  Speaker 6: But if you look at Joe Burrow, like he only
• 26:39
  Speaker 6: played five true games where he was viewed as one
• 26:41
  Speaker 6: hundred percent and the Bengals went four and one and
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: not just four and one last year. In those games,
• 26:46
  Speaker 6: think about who they played. The forty nine Ers, the Bills,
• 26:50
  Speaker 6: the Seahawks, the Cardinals. Now we know the Cardinals are down,
• 26:53
  Speaker 6: there's other three teams fine, two of them exceptional.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: And then they.
• 26:57
  Speaker 6: Lost to the Texans thirty to twenty seven on a
• 27:00
  Speaker 6: field goal as time expired. Right, So, like that was
• 27:03
  Speaker 6: a back and forth game against CJ Stroud Light in
• 27:05
  Speaker 6: the year when cjs drowd was absolutely bawling. So and
• 27:08
  Speaker 6: this is a team that I think the Bengals are solid.
• 27:12
  Speaker 6: I don't love the loss of Dj Reider. When we
• 27:15
  Speaker 6: talk about lou An Arumo, though he was put in
• 27:18
  Speaker 6: a difficult situation last year, and we kind of knew
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: that heading into the season. They lost both their starting
• 27:23
  Speaker 6: safeties from twenty twenty two. So you've got a defensive
• 27:26
  Speaker 6: coordinator that is used to changing things up. You know,
• 27:29
  Speaker 6: Simon knows this too. Like every single game plan that
• 27:31
  Speaker 6: he creates, he's sort of like Spags in a sense.
• 27:35
  Speaker 6: They come up with something, try something new, make those
• 27:37
  Speaker 6: halftime adjustments. He's so good in the second half. That's
• 27:39
  Speaker 6: hard to do when you don't have good safeties there
• 27:41
  Speaker 6: when your safeties are both brand new as they were
• 27:44
  Speaker 6: last year, and so it kind of was easier to
• 27:46
  Speaker 6: anticipate that they might take a little bit of a
• 27:48
  Speaker 6: step back, and they did. They fell off. They were
• 27:51
  Speaker 6: number nine and twenty two. They dropped all the way
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: down to number thirty two last year. When defending early downs,
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: that's got to regress, that's got to improve a little
• 27:59
  Speaker 6: bit this upcoming season. I predict that they're going to
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: play the number one easiest schedule of passing offenses this year.
• 28:06
  Speaker 6: In addition, they get to face inexperienced quarterbacks and first
• 28:09
  Speaker 6: and second year players. Think about all the young quarterbacks
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: that lou An Rumo's defense is going to go up against, Bonnicks,
• 28:15
  Speaker 6: Jaden Daniels, Drake May. If Drake May plays, we'll see
• 28:19
  Speaker 6: it could be obviously be Jacoby percent instead hopefully Will Levis,
• 28:22
  Speaker 6: Aiden O'Connell and Bryce Young. I mean, so that's a
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: very nice schedule of like some younger, inexperienced quarterbacks that
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: they get to play. When you look at the nutshell
• 28:30
  Speaker 6: of the Cincinnati Bengals last year and put this into context,
• 28:35
  Speaker 6: they played the number one toughest schedule. They played eleven
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: games versus playoff teams, which was the most of any
• 28:40
  Speaker 6: team in the NFL since two thousand. They played fourteen
• 28:43
  Speaker 6: games versus teams that were over five hundred, That was
• 28:46
  Speaker 6: tied for the most of any team since two thousand.
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: Despite that brutal schedule, Despite that, Joe Burrow played only
• 28:53
  Speaker 6: five true games where he played healthy all the way
• 28:55
  Speaker 6: through missing or injured for twelve of seventeen games. The
• 28:59
  Speaker 6: Bengals went nine and eight and steer Neil still nearly
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: made the playoffs, and that is absurd.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: This year, they're.
• 29:05
  Speaker 6: Playing the number six easiest schedule, the number one biggest
• 29:08
  Speaker 6: year over year improvement for any team. I love all
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: of that. The two things that I will say is
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: like caveats besides DJ readers loss, Number one, that offensive line,
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: which you guys already hit on this team on pass
• 29:20
  Speaker 6: block win rate. They've ranked number thirty, number thirty, and
• 29:24
  Speaker 6: number twenty seven the last three years. They're the only
• 29:26
  Speaker 6: offensive line to rank twenty seventh or worse in both
• 29:29
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, and they still
• 29:32
  Speaker 6: didn't solve that last year in twenty twenty three. That
• 29:35
  Speaker 6: does not That is measured not by your quarterback. That
• 29:38
  Speaker 6: is measured just by how well does that offensive line
• 29:40
  Speaker 6: block the defensive line and allow them past them using
• 29:45
  Speaker 6: the dots and the chips and the players. So that
• 29:48
  Speaker 6: is obviously very concerning why they don't give Joe Burrow
• 29:51
  Speaker 6: better protection and emphasize that that's a concern.
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: Hopefully it improves this year.
• 29:56
  Speaker 6: Arguably can't get worse though, so that's the only positive,
• 29:58
  Speaker 6: but it needs to improve. And then it's this the
• 30:02
  Speaker 6: fact that, yes, while they play an easy schedule, and
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: we talked about this the last time that I was on, Well,
• 30:07
  Speaker 6: they play an easy schedule. They have the most difficult
• 30:10
  Speaker 6: prep and rest schedule from a timing perspective, and that's
• 30:13
  Speaker 6: what I look at a lot. They play the three
• 30:15
  Speaker 6: games in ten days, which isn't great, and they play
• 30:17
  Speaker 6: that late in the season. Also, they also play three
• 30:22
  Speaker 6: short week road games. Their game Week four in Carolina
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: is off of a Monday night football game. They play
• 30:28
  Speaker 6: Week ten in Baltimore that's a Thursday night game, so
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: that's on a short week, and Week fifteen they play
• 30:33
  Speaker 6: in Tennessee after a Monday night football game. No team
• 30:36
  Speaker 6: plays more than three short week road games this year,
• 30:39
  Speaker 6: and they played three short week road games last year,
• 30:42
  Speaker 6: So that's got to be frustrating from like a scheduling perspective.
• 30:45
  Speaker 6: Why the league continues to give the Bengals three short
• 30:48
  Speaker 6: week road games for back to back years when no
• 30:50
  Speaker 6: other team has to deal with that, that's pretty absurd.
• 30:54
  Speaker 6: They're also playing those game three games in ten days,
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: which is annoying late in the season, so that provides
• 31:02
  Speaker 6: a little bit of difficulty for them. But overall, I
• 31:05
  Speaker 6: would agree that the upside is there. From a personal perspective,
• 31:09
  Speaker 6: I thought it was admirable what the coaches were able
• 31:11
  Speaker 6: to do with a backup quarterback in there. Some people
• 31:14
  Speaker 6: aren't in on Zach Taylor nearly as much. I was
• 31:17
  Speaker 6: not myself, but seeing what he was able to do
• 31:19
  Speaker 6: last year with their backup quarterbacks have made me like
• 31:22
  Speaker 6: the play calling and the offensive mind of Zach Taylor
• 31:25
  Speaker 6: a little bit more. I would be this would be
• 31:29
  Speaker 6: a team that I'd be rather buying on than selling
• 31:32
  Speaker 6: this year. I think that there are going to be
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: spots for them. The only thing I will say if
• 31:35
  Speaker 6: you're looking to buy them late, and Simon was saying,
• 31:38
  Speaker 6: maybe they start one to two, one and three those
• 31:40
  Speaker 6: first that first month of the season. They're playing New England, Carolina,
• 31:45
  Speaker 6: and Washington, three teams that have either young, inexperienced quarterbacks
• 31:49
  Speaker 6: or aren't viewed.
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: As good teams.
• 31:51
  Speaker 6: That toughest game is going to be that game against
• 31:53
  Speaker 6: the Kansas City Chiefs in Week two, So they could
• 31:57
  Speaker 6: start out a little bit hot, and if you're better
• 32:00
  Speaker 6: over and win total, you hope that they do because
• 32:02
  Speaker 6: that stretch run down later and on in the season
• 32:05
  Speaker 6: is a little bit more difficult. But this is going
• 32:07
  Speaker 6: to be a fun team to watch this year and
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: I really hope for the good of your bets, potentially
• 32:12
  Speaker 6: my bet if I decide to tail you on this one,
• 32:15
  Speaker 6: as well as the league in general. We want Joe
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: Burrow to be good this NFL. The league is so
• 32:21
  Speaker 6: much more fun when Joe Burrow is balling out and
• 32:23
  Speaker 6: playing hard and is healthy, and so I hope that
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: that's the case all the way through and this offensive
• 32:29
  Speaker 6: line protects him a little bit better.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Well, it's kind of amazing that the Bengals have now
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: spent multiple years with Joe Burrow injured at the end
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: of the year or injured coming into training camp, and
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: they still have now figured out how to prioritize protecting
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. So yeah, for all of our sakes, let's
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: make sure that the Bengals. Let's hope that the Bengals
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: have done that in some capacity. Cleveland Cleveland forty to
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: one plus six hundred. The win total is eight and
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: a half. Their O line rank is fourth Wyatt Teller
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: Joel Patonio, both top twenty rated guards, Ethan Pozick, top
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: top fifteen center. Their offensive line is built to do
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: exactly what Kevin Stefanski wants it to do. It is
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: why The Browns continued to perform for most of the
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: year last year, even after they had so many injuries
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: with Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson. D Lion rank is fourth.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: Miles Garrett defending Defensive Player of the Year, also argue
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: like he is one of the few defensive linemen who
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: is worth a point against the point spread. This is
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: like JJ Watt twenty twelve level dominance. Look, it's going
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: to come down to Deshaun Watson, and I should say
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: the Browns have the third hardist schedule, so it's not
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: going to be an easy run for them. What do
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: we think of Deshaan Watson right now?
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: Simon, I mean everything you see it's same old Deshaun
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: Watson in camp. Can't hit, can't hit guys in stride,
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: He's overthrowing guys when they're all open deep. It's just
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: we talked about whatever happened to Chat. It's just not
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: the same guy. And there's nothing more glaring than seeing
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: Joe Flacco step into that offense and look like an
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: all pro. Like all the pieces are so set up
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: there for Deshaun Watson to succeed. It's like the best
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: offensive line you can dream of. Marii Cooper. You forgot
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: how great of a player he was until Joe Flacco
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: came back. It's just like that's the that's the thing
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: that just stands out to me. It's like all the
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: weaponers are there. I mean, Joe Flack, woun't even have
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: Nick Chubb and they were still running the ball with
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: I think it might have been four was running for
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: like five six yards of pop. Like that oldfensive line
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: is incredible. You didn't even touch on it. That old
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: line coach is gone. Like that's a big deal to me.
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: They might be forth ranked. Yeah, I guarantee you next
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: year chat we're talking about this, they'll be back down
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: to eight or ten. Right, That's how big of a
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: deal I think having a coach like that lead them.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: So this is the team I don't know what to
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: do with.
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: Last year, me and you loved they're over. We were
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: all in on it because we were just in love
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: with their defense. We're in love with their offensive line,
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: and we thought, Okay, Deshaun Watson's had a full offseason,
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: he'll get right now, right like he's he should legitter
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: should be gone. We got lucky he got hurt because
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: I mean we probably would have got there with the
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: defense defense by itself, but you know, we needed Joe.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: Flacker to come in.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: It was gonna be close.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: It was gonna be close.
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: So I feel on them right now, Like I look
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: at the book, they're over eight and a half is
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: minus won forty minus went thirty five on bet three
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: sixty five. Right now, I'm tempted to take it just
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: because of this defense. Like Schwartzman, he's just got these
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: guys humming, and like Miles Garrett, I can't see him
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: letting this team be below nine wins.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: It's like, I do believe in that defense that much, but.
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: It's just hard with Watson, he's so inconsistent, and it's
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: we touched on.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: They have a tougher schedule as well.
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: But you know, I'm very hesitant to take this under
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: I guess I'm indecisive at this point, but their divisional
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: odds wouldn't touch them. I still think this is either
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: Ravens or Bengals. The books got this right, having the
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: Ravens and Bengals so much higher, you know, both them
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: plus one forty and then having these guys plus six hundred,
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: and I think Pittsburgh's like plus eight hundred, that's how
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: it should be in this division. It's like those two
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: guys are definitely the kings of this division.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: So just viewing this.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: Browns team, I'm sad to say that it's like if
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: they had a guy, if they had maybe kept Baker,
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: who knows, right, Chad, Like that's the saddest part of
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: all of this. It's like, you know, they try to
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: do something that felt smart and right, right, going to
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: get a guy who's proven, who's done it for a
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: couple of years. Little do they know that he might
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: just be mentally broken, which is what we talked about Watson.
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: So I just I want to get behind this team
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: because I love what they have so much on the
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: defensive side and their offensive line and their offensive weapons.
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: But it's just not doing it for me right now.
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: So I'm going to lean towards the over, but I'm
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: not putting anything on it.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: Bill Callahan was the offensive line coach last year who
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: you've talked about, who's one of the most highly regarded
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: offensive line coaches of the past twenty years in the NFL,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: went to join his son, Brian Callahan is the offensive
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: line coach supporting him and the Tennessee Titans. Callahan Brian
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: is the new head coach there. Yeah, Deshaun Watson. The
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: best game he had last year was when his shoulder
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: nearly fell off and he was clearly shot up with
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: so many plain killers that he finally played well, but
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: his season was done after that. Under sixty percent completion
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: percentage with the Browns versus over sixty seven with Houston,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: five point three touchdown rate with the Texans, four point
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: one touchdown rate with the Browns, pascer rating over one
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: hundred with Houston, near eighty with Cleveland Warren. It feels
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: like they missed a window. They had their shot last
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: year if DeShawn had been able to be Toshaun, with
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: the way things played out and with how good this.
• 38:06
  Speaker 6: Defense is well, especially now that they have to pay
• 38:10
  Speaker 6: Deshaun Watson this exorbitant rate from a salary cap perspective
• 38:14
  Speaker 6: that kicked in this season continues for the next several years.
• 38:18
  Speaker 6: The thing that I struggle with, and it's a great
• 38:21
  Speaker 6: callback to Baker Mayfield time and with regards to what
• 38:25
  Speaker 6: this team was looking like back in those early years.
• 38:28
  Speaker 6: Remember Kevin Sefanski came in and the COVID year was
• 38:31
  Speaker 6: his first season coaching, and they went to the playoffs
• 38:33
  Speaker 6: and he got Baker Mayfield to play somewhat well, and
• 38:37
  Speaker 6: he won Coach of the Year that year. In twenty
• 38:39
  Speaker 6: twenty one, of the things that they were doing really
• 38:41
  Speaker 6: well that year ended to the next year was they
• 38:44
  Speaker 6: were doing what Kevin Sefanski brought from Minnesota, which was
• 38:48
  Speaker 6: a lot of heavier sets and play action out of
• 38:50
  Speaker 6: these heavier sets, and they rarely used eleven personnel. That
• 38:54
  Speaker 6: it was thirty six percent usage of eleven personnel on
• 38:57
  Speaker 6: early downs in the first three quarters in twenty twenty
• 38:59
  Speaker 6: and two one, who was still only thirty seven percent
• 39:02
  Speaker 6: once they got Watson. They've ratcheted that up massively. Last
• 39:06
  Speaker 6: year they were all the way up at sixty six
• 39:08
  Speaker 6: percent early downs in the first three quarters. They used
• 39:11
  Speaker 6: three plus wide receivers on seventy one percent of early
• 39:14
  Speaker 6: downs in the first three quarters. That was the sixth
• 39:16
  Speaker 6: highest rate.
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: In the NFL.
• 39:19
  Speaker 6: The thing is, Deshaun Watson was much better when he
• 39:22
  Speaker 6: was using two tight end sets rather than of twelve
• 39:26
  Speaker 6: personnel rather than of eleven personnel. He averaged nearly two
• 39:29
  Speaker 6: more yards per pass attempt when he was passing the
• 39:32
  Speaker 6: ball with two tight ends out on the football field,
• 39:34
  Speaker 6: his EPA per play was plus one three. His EPA
• 39:38
  Speaker 6: per play in eleven personnel was minus point oh two
• 39:41
  Speaker 6: early downs.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: In the first three quarters.
• 39:43
  Speaker 6: So this is the situation that I struggle with is
• 39:47
  Speaker 6: I think Stefanski is as a Ford thinking good coach,
• 39:51
  Speaker 6: but he's doing what he thinks Watson wants, which is
• 39:54
  Speaker 6: a lot of spread and eleven personnel. But Watson has
• 39:57
  Speaker 6: been better from twelve and Sefanski's offense is better from twelve.
• 40:01
  Speaker 6: If you if you forget all the quarterbacks Stefanski arrives
• 40:04
  Speaker 6: in twenty twenty, throw them all into the mix, take
• 40:07
  Speaker 6: their name tags off, all the different quarterbacks that have
• 40:09
  Speaker 6: played in Cleveland. If you look at what he's done
• 40:12
  Speaker 6: over those four years, twenty twenty one, twenty two to
• 40:14
  Speaker 6: twenty three, eleven personnel, they're minus point zero five EPA
• 40:18
  Speaker 6: twelve personnel, they are plus point one point eight eleven personnel.
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: They average six point eight yards per tempt eleven twelve personnel,
• 40:26
  Speaker 6: they average eight point one. We're talking about from the
• 40:28
  Speaker 6: number two twenty two offense all the way to the
• 40:31
  Speaker 6: number seven offense or the number twenty five offense to
• 40:33
  Speaker 6: the number five offense. When they're in twelve personnel versus eleven,
• 40:37
  Speaker 6: they just are better out of twelve. The Fanski's offense
• 40:40
  Speaker 6: is decidedly better there and and Watson has been better
• 40:44
  Speaker 6: as well, but they just don't want to go in
• 40:45
  Speaker 6: that route it looks like, and so I just have
• 40:48
  Speaker 6: concerns about, like what this offense is going to look like.
• 40:50
  Speaker 6: And I certainly don't think they're going to use a
• 40:52
  Speaker 6: lot of twelve. They were in the Auk sweepstakes like
• 40:55
  Speaker 6: they wanted another wide receiver, and so they're trying to
• 40:58
  Speaker 6: lean into If Watson doesn't.
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: Play well, we are all screwed.
• 41:02
  Speaker 6: And we need Watson to play well because we gave
• 41:04
  Speaker 6: him all this guaranteed money. Let's figure out ways to
• 41:06
  Speaker 6: get great wide receivers in here. As it relates to
• 41:09
  Speaker 6: the other side of the ball on the defense.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Hold on me, let me just cut you off for
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: one sec. That is a great point that I have
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: not heard anybody make about the eleven personnel versus the
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: twelve personnel and Deshaun Watson, because it speaks to so
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: many things. It speaks to maybe what Kevin Stefanski is
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: thinking about how he wants to manage the quarterback. If
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: it speaks to maybe what's Kevin Stefanski is feeling because
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: his owner gave gobs and gobs of guaranteed money to
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. That is fascinating way to think about this
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: team in a dysfunctional context. Brilliant love it.
• 41:56
  Speaker 6: Yeah, No, it's something that I've been thinking about just
• 41:59
  Speaker 6: by looking at personnel and just Knowingfanci I was on
• 42:03
  Speaker 6: him Coach of the Year in twenty twenty. I thought
• 42:06
  Speaker 6: his system would mesh well with Baker Mayfield. Obviously, Baker
• 42:10
  Speaker 6: didn't work out and he wasn't perfect here, but it's
• 42:13
  Speaker 6: just they've changed a lot of things to acquiesce to
• 42:17
  Speaker 6: Deshaun Watson's preferred style of play. It's not really the
• 42:21
  Speaker 6: bag for Stefanski and it hasn't worked out for Watson either.
• 42:25
  Speaker 6: On the other side of the ball, Yes, great defense,
• 42:27
  Speaker 6: and yes, Jim Schwartz has been very good from the
• 42:30
  Speaker 6: way that he's calling this defense. If you look though,
• 42:33
  Speaker 6: at the quarterbacks that they played last year, they played
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: a lot of bad quarterbacks last year, and they had
• 42:39
  Speaker 6: a lot of success against those bad quarterbacks. The positive
• 42:42
  Speaker 6: is that they were terrible from a health perspective, they
• 42:45
  Speaker 6: were twenty seventh, so maybe they'll be better from a
• 42:47
  Speaker 6: health perspective this upcoming season. I still think the defense
• 42:50
  Speaker 6: is going to be great. And if you look visually
• 42:52
  Speaker 6: at the way that this schedule is laid out, it's
• 42:54
  Speaker 6: like after that Week one game against the Dallas Cowboys
• 42:58
  Speaker 6: in Cleveland, there's two real defined pockets of easy opponents
• 43:03
  Speaker 6: back to back to back, and then there's like several
• 43:06
  Speaker 6: streaks of very difficult opponents, and they end the season
• 43:10
  Speaker 6: and a very difficult run playing against the Chiefs, against
• 43:14
  Speaker 6: the Bengals, against the Dolphins, at least that game's in
• 43:17
  Speaker 6: Cleveland where Tua struggles out in the cold potentially, and
• 43:20
  Speaker 6: then against the Ravens. Those are four playoff caliber teams
• 43:23
  Speaker 6: that they're going to play down the stretch, So you know,
• 43:26
  Speaker 6: if you have back them over in their win total
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: and then you have the ability to hedge a little
• 43:32
  Speaker 6: bit late if they still aren't there, that's something that
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: could be to your advantage. But this is I agree
• 43:37
  Speaker 6: with something to say this is a tough team to
• 43:40
  Speaker 6: peg from a wins perspective, just because they have a
• 43:43
  Speaker 6: lot of the pieces, so much is just dependent upon
• 43:47
  Speaker 6: is the quarterback going to work this year, and from
• 43:49
  Speaker 6: a skill perspective, you would say he's got to, he's
• 43:53
  Speaker 6: bound to. It can't continue like this, But you just
• 43:56
  Speaker 6: never know. And I'm interested to see what ends up
• 43:58
  Speaker 6: happening if we get to see his back up in
• 44:00
  Speaker 6: there Jamis Winston this upcoming season at all.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: All right, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: Y'all game today?
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: You ain't new to us no more, now, you.
• 44:09
  Speaker 5: Know what I mean?
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Steelers fifty to one to win the super Bowl plus
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: way eight hundred to win the division. Eight and a
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: half is the season win total, hardest schedule in the
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: NFL O line eighth overall. But I think there's a
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: lot of questions, a lot of questions, especially on the
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: right side uh D line eighth as well. TJ. Watt
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: is in a defensive lineman, but he's obviously a top
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: two or three edge rusher and defensive player when he's healthy.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: The team is just different when he is on the field.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: We know that, we bet that Cameron Hayward still a presence,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: showed some signs of age last year. Look, Warren, it's
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: the base of question. Mike Tomlin has never had a
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: losing season as a head coach. It has been guaranteed
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: money to bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers with Mike Tomlin
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: as the head coach, Russell Wilson is the starting quarterback,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields is the backup Warren Sharp? Is this the
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: year you fade the Steelers' win total?
• 45:21
  Speaker 6: So I think the NFL absolutely has set it up
• 45:25
  Speaker 6: for that to be the case?
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: Is it though?
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: Boy?
• 45:28
  Speaker 6: They absolutely did. And actually Mike North, who is the
• 45:32
  Speaker 6: head guy from a scheduling perspective, his immediate interviews after
• 45:37
  Speaker 6: the schedule was released, he already was talking about this storyline.
• 45:41
  Speaker 6: This is a baked in storyline for the NFL season.
• 45:43
  Speaker 6: He already was talking about how tough that Steelers run
• 45:46
  Speaker 6: is late in the year and will they be able
• 45:48
  Speaker 6: to continue this streak for Mike Tomlin? And so they
• 45:52
  Speaker 6: stacked this schedule. I have never seen before from week
• 45:55
  Speaker 6: eleven onward that a team plays every single one of
• 45:58
  Speaker 6: their divisional games from a week eleven onward. I've calculated back,
• 46:02
  Speaker 6: I don't see the ever happening previously. And then you
• 46:06
  Speaker 6: take into consideration the only two teams that they play
• 46:09
  Speaker 6: that aren't in their division for week eleven onward are
• 46:11
  Speaker 6: the Chiefs and the Eagles right the three times potentially
• 46:16
  Speaker 6: trying to get three times Super Bowls in a row.
• 46:18
  Speaker 6: The Chiefs and the Eagles, who are obviously a good
• 46:20
  Speaker 6: team year in a year out, one that went to
• 46:22
  Speaker 6: the Super Bowl in twenty twenty two. So it's a
• 46:25
  Speaker 6: brutal schedule down the stretch. They have to bank wins early.
• 46:29
  Speaker 6: If they're going to come close to this at all,
• 46:31
  Speaker 6: they have to bank wins. And their schedule is easier
• 46:35
  Speaker 6: to start, but it's not super easy. They're still playing
• 46:37
  Speaker 6: the Dallas Cowboys, They're still playing the Jets of Aaron
• 46:39
  Speaker 6: Rodgers is there. They still have to play John Harbaugh's
• 46:42
  Speaker 6: La Chargers, so and the Falcons if they're going to
• 46:45
  Speaker 6: be a turnaround team this year. So they've got those
• 46:47
  Speaker 6: teams in the first half of the schedule, and then
• 46:49
  Speaker 6: they got that ridiculous run late, so that's going to
• 46:53
  Speaker 6: be a challenge for them. People are really critical of
• 46:57
  Speaker 6: Arthur Smith because what they saw down in at Las Alta,
• 47:00
  Speaker 6: and I understand that, especially from the fantasy perspective. A
• 47:03
  Speaker 6: lot of guys who had Jean Robinson and were really
• 47:07
  Speaker 6: disappointed at the way he was utilized in some of
• 47:09
  Speaker 6: the talking points that came out in the press conferences.
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: I get it some people don't really like Arthur Smith.
• 47:15
  Speaker 6: The only thing I'll say is this, There's no way
• 47:17
  Speaker 6: Arthur Smith is any worse than what's been going on
• 47:19
  Speaker 6: in Pittsburgh for the last several years. I mean, the
• 47:21
  Speaker 6: oftensive coordinating situation in Pittsburgh has been terrible. I'll throw
• 47:24
  Speaker 6: this trivia point out to you guys.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: Both through Week four, the.
• 47:30
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh Steelers offense, led by Matt Canada, had twenty six
• 47:33
  Speaker 6: drives in the first half of games. Twenty six first
• 47:36
  Speaker 6: half drives. How many made it to the red zone.
• 47:39
  Speaker 6: Of the twenty six drives in the first half the
• 47:41
  Speaker 6: first four weeks, how many made it to the red zone.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Zero.
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, like, very close, You're very close.
• 47:48
  Speaker 6: One one out of twenty six drives actually made it
• 47:51
  Speaker 6: to the red zone in the first half. This team
• 47:54
  Speaker 6: was not creative, they were not aggressive, and they were
• 47:57
  Speaker 6: far too predictable. With Matt Canada as the play call.
• 48:00
  Speaker 6: The difference that's going to happen is threefold this year,
• 48:03
  Speaker 6: in my opinion, based upon what I know about Arthur Smith.
• 48:06
  Speaker 6: Number One, a lot more play action. We are going
• 48:08
  Speaker 6: to see a ton more play action. The Pittsburgh Steelers
• 48:10
  Speaker 6: are FRAN thirty one in play action usage rate for
• 48:13
  Speaker 6: multiple years in a row. The Falcons used play action
• 48:16
  Speaker 6: at the number four highest rate. We are going to
• 48:18
  Speaker 6: see a lot more play action in the offense.
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: That's first. Number two.
• 48:22
  Speaker 6: We are going to see a lot more heavier personnel
• 48:24
  Speaker 6: groupings in Pittsburgh.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 48:25
  Speaker 6: I don't know if they end up getting Ayuk and
• 48:27
  Speaker 6: if that changes anything or not, but Arthur Smith loves
• 48:30
  Speaker 6: to operate out of heavier personnel. They used eleven personnel
• 48:34
  Speaker 6: last year. If that's three wide receivers at the lowest
• 48:36
  Speaker 6: rate of any team in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers
• 48:39
  Speaker 6: were at number seven in highest usage rate seventy one
• 48:42
  Speaker 6: percent for the Steelers seventeen percent the exact inverse from
• 48:45
  Speaker 6: a number perspective, seventeen percent for the Falcons, which was
• 48:48
  Speaker 6: lowest in the NFL. They used the highest rate of
• 48:51
  Speaker 6: two tight end sets. So we're going to see more
• 48:52
  Speaker 6: two tight ends out on the field, and then I
• 48:54
  Speaker 6: think we're going to see deeper passes down the field.
• 48:57
  Speaker 6: The Atlanta Falcons love to run the ball early. That's
• 49:00
  Speaker 6: not going to change the Steelers were running it a lot.
• 49:02
  Speaker 6: The Falcons are going to run. Sorry, the Steelers are
• 49:04
  Speaker 6: running a lot before Arthur Smith. They're gonna run it
• 49:06
  Speaker 6: a lot after Arthur Smith. He likes to run the football.
• 49:09
  Speaker 6: He runs the ball out of heavier sets to set
• 49:11
  Speaker 6: up deeper shots down the field. And that's one of
• 49:14
  Speaker 6: the things the Atlanta Falcons did a lot last year.
• 49:16
  Speaker 6: They were number four in rate of passes that were
• 49:19
  Speaker 6: traveling downfield, whereas the Denver Broncos I'm saying Denver because
• 49:22
  Speaker 6: of Russell Wilson, were dead last. And this is where
• 49:25
  Speaker 6: I think Justin Fields actually could play a role if
• 49:27
  Speaker 6: you look at the last two years. I know Russell
• 49:29
  Speaker 6: Wilson is famous for this moon ball down the field,
• 49:32
  Speaker 6: but actually Justin Fields is better throwing the ball deeper
• 49:35
  Speaker 6: down the field.
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: Chad.
• 49:36
  Speaker 6: I mean, you know from your experience with him, he
• 49:39
  Speaker 6: has his faults and he's gotten his sacks, and they
• 49:41
  Speaker 6: haven't had a lot of receivers to work with in Chicago,
• 49:44
  Speaker 6: but he has been better than Russell Wilson as over
• 49:46
  Speaker 6: the last two years combined at throwing the ball deep
• 49:48
  Speaker 6: down the field, and I think that they're going to
• 49:51
  Speaker 6: be able to gain some edge with his mobility and
• 49:54
  Speaker 6: his scrambling, which is better obviously than Russell Wilson. So
• 49:58
  Speaker 6: I'm interested to see how this quarterback battle ultimately plays out.
• 50:01
  Speaker 6: But I just don't think that this offense is suddenly
• 50:05
  Speaker 6: going to be a disaster because they've got Arthur Smith.
• 50:07
  Speaker 6: It's been a disaster before. Arthur Smith can only help
• 50:10
  Speaker 6: improve things a little bit. But this schedule is so daunting.
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and
• 50:16
  Speaker 5: squashing greats at.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: The end of the season. You pointed it out, this
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: is the schedule. Ravens, Browns Bengals, Browns Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals. Simon,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: It's like the schedule makers went full WWE on Mike Tomlin.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: What they know his pension for beating the season win
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: totals and winning as an underdog there. It's like they're
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: daring us to play the Steelers and daring the Steelers
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: and Mike Tomlin to continue this streak.
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 50:51
  Speaker 5: We make the simple complex in this business, don't we.
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, And I joke with you, it's this is
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: a team that when I make my annual trip to
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: Vegas in May, I picked the over It's just something
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: I do every year. And it's the first time in
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: my life as a professional better that I had all
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: the pros around me being like, no, this is the
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: year to go under.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: And I hate looking at the schedule ahead of time
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: like that and trying to predict wins and loss his chat.
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: But like you said, you look at that schedule, you
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: know you don't need to start doing predictions, right. You
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: can just look at it and go, oh, that's brutal.
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: Then you factor in last year, things just bounced right
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: for this team. Yeah, like they call teams when they
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: had their backups. In even their win against the Ravens.
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: I think the Ravens were winning thirteen to three in
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: that game. They're dominating the entire game. They had a
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: fluke like you know, fifty yard touchdown, then the I
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: think they had to turnover get another touchdown all a
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: sudden they win that game. It's like that's where tomlin
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: Mix is living. He muddies the water and they can
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: get these kind of crazy wins. I want to love
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: them too, because Arthur Smith is a guy that you
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: know me and you made a ton of money off
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: him when he was with Tennessee. Like that combo with
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: him of Rabel, that was the perfect comblo. I think
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: he has that once again with Tomlin. It's like his
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: type A personality will fit well with a guy who's
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: even more type A. It's like, no, no one gets
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: better than Tomlin. So to me, I wanted to love
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: this team, want to love this defense, want to love
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: the improvements they made, but the quarterbacks just don't do
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: it for me. Like Russell Wilson, he's in the perfect
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: system last year with the perfect head coach like Sean Payton.
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: It doesn't get much better than having a guy like
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: him with you. And he was totally out of him.
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: He was willing to eat sixty million dollars in dead
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: money this year just to get this guy all fat
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: team and out of that locker room. Justin Fields a
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: guy I mean you believed in. We kept thinking you
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: take that next step, and he just is not. He's
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: not worked on the footwork that needed to work on.
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: He still has happy feet, And I mean, you had
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: this incredible stat last year that just hung with me
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: all off season. When I tried betting this team, no
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: one struggled more in the fourth quarter than Justin Fields.
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: It was incredible for the first three quarters, he'd excel.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: The fourth quarter he fell off a cliff. He was
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: by far the worst quarterback in the league. And fourth
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: quarter win rate and success rate. So this is a
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: team that I understand why people want to blindly bet this.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: It's it's eight and a half to the win total.
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: It's plus twenty to want to take the over minus
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: one fifty to the under, I'm gonna take the under.
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: Like this this team has seven seven wins, six wins
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: written all over it. Just not even the fact the
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: way it ends this year, it's just a whole schedule,
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: Like their whole schedule is just brutal. And I don't
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: think they're gonna have all the injury luck they've kind
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: of had these last couple of years. Like Tomlin, you
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: just said it, Chad, it's just a lot of averages.
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: This guy's been playing with crazy luck and house money.
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: And he's also such a great coach, like we talked
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: about in our luck rankings. But it has to finally
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: catch up to him at some point. The hardest division
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: of football to me, if everyone's staying healthy, these teams
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: are still what we think they're gonna be. How do
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: you not pick this team to be the fourth team
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: in this division. It's just too many questions to me
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: at this point.
• 53:42
  Speaker 5: It's a broad moment right here for you youngsters, let's live.
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: Makes sense that you know, the public is still taking
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: their over, but it makes even more sense that this
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: is like the team that professionals are circling. So now
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: again not one of my bigger bets. Like my biggest
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: bets still bangles to win this division. But I'm on
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: the under eight and a half here, Chad.
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: When you're out of time, we all know it, you
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: know what I mean, And so I just go hard
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: all day until we at that point where we know it.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you want to back Tomlins so badly because you
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: see what he's done over the years with quarterbacks who
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: had no business being in the NFL.
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: all the time, like that's what the hell we pay
• 54:24
  Speaker 5: to do.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: But he also had much better defenses than right, we're
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: talking about the Duck Hodges years and even last year.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: You always have to ask the question, is he making
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: his own luck or is he blessed by the stars? Right?
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: I try to keep it real simple. Football is our game.
• 54:43
  Speaker 5: Our business is winning.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Steelers are Week one dogs at the Falcons. The Steelers
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: have won at a sixty three percent clip against the
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: spread as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, making him the
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: most profitable coach as a in the past twenty years.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin is the best coach against the spread period
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years.
• 55:12
  Speaker 5: That's the greatest of all time. Look at your word.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: He knows something, he does something, He is able to
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: get his team motivated. That One of my favorite TikTok
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: videos right now is like the five best Mike Tomlin moments,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: and one of them is he's walking through the tunnel
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: to the game and there's a fan who screams like, yeah, Mike,
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: let's go get him, and he goes, let me the
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: fuck alone. I'm working here, Like the guy is just
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: intense and he is ready, and we love that. We
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: know Matt Mitchell loves to put the Mike Tomlin drops
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: in the show. Let's Go Mack. He is our most animated, favorite, brilliant,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: motivating tactician of a coach. Like you cannot discount how
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: brilliant he is a coach.
• 55:57
  Speaker 5: So that's why the people kill me for catch phrases.
• 55:59
  Speaker 5: But I'm trying to capture a thought succacly without damn
• 56:04
  Speaker 5: talking too much, because I just hate talking.
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: I'd rather do.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Which is why it makes it scary to bit that
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: under eight and a half, And like Warren be to
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: the fire in your answer, you did not tell me
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: if you were going over under eight and a half
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: on the Steelers.
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: No, so I would be going under if I had to.
• 56:22
  Speaker 6: And here's one other factor that you guys mentioned, And
• 56:25
  Speaker 6: I wasn't thinking of this before, but it's perfect that
• 56:28
  Speaker 6: stat Simon mentioned about Justin Fields that you shared earlier, Chad,
• 56:34
  Speaker 6: the Steelers were nine and two in one score games
• 56:36
  Speaker 6: last year. Think about what that means. If Justin Fields
• 56:40
  Speaker 6: ends up getting inserted as the starting quarterback and then
• 56:43
  Speaker 6: he is struggling in the fourth quarter of these games,
• 56:46
  Speaker 6: Suddenly it's almost impossible for you to go nine and
• 56:49
  Speaker 6: two in these close games if he is one of
• 56:51
  Speaker 6: the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in those situations, and
• 56:54
  Speaker 6: certainly from a luck factor standpoint, you have the Steelers.
• 56:58
  Speaker 6: I've got on one of the pages in the book
• 56:59
  Speaker 6: the Critical and Game Deciding Stats, Steelers were plus eleven
• 57:03
  Speaker 6: in turnover margin last year. They were plus eleven in
• 57:05
  Speaker 6: sack margin, plus two in turnover margin, and plus four
• 57:08
  Speaker 6: and penalty margin.
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: And if they don't do.
• 57:11
  Speaker 6: All of those things again this year, and the biggest
• 57:13
  Speaker 6: one to me is the sacks. I mean, turnovers are
• 57:16
  Speaker 6: obviously a big factor too. Those will decide games more
• 57:20
  Speaker 6: than any other statistic, but a quarterback like Justin Field's
• 57:24
  Speaker 6: getting inserted there and taking more sacks. Sacks are absolute
• 57:29
  Speaker 6: drive killers. The rate at which you score points when
• 57:32
  Speaker 6: you take a sack on a drive is cut into
• 57:34
  Speaker 6: a third. You score points at a third of the
• 57:36
  Speaker 6: rate if you take a sack on a drive. And
• 57:39
  Speaker 6: we know his propensity to take sacks, that's going to
• 57:42
  Speaker 6: potentially impact turnovers and then his fourth quarter performance absolutely frightening.
• 57:47
  Speaker 6: And then you factor in that schedule. So I believe
• 57:51
  Speaker 6: that the schedule makers have this hope that they can
• 57:56
  Speaker 6: play it up as long as possible. In a perfect
• 57:58
  Speaker 6: world for the NFL and schedule makers, it would come
• 58:01
  Speaker 6: down to they've got them playing on Christmas. You know,
• 58:04
  Speaker 6: it will come down to those last couple of weeks
• 58:06
  Speaker 6: of the season. Can Mike Tomlin win the next two
• 58:09
  Speaker 6: games and get to over five hundred like this is
• 58:12
  Speaker 6: gonna be something You're gonna turn on your TV on
• 58:14
  Speaker 6: Christmas and you were going to hear the announcer say
• 58:17
  Speaker 6: something like that. I firmly believe they'll be right underneath
• 58:20
  Speaker 6: that mark.
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: As they enter.
• 58:23
  Speaker 6: They're gonna need to win this game to be able
• 58:25
  Speaker 6: to get there, and they're not gonna get it done
• 58:27
  Speaker 6: against they play. I think the Kansas City Chiefs, either
• 58:31
  Speaker 6: the Chiefs or the Ravens on Christmas, I forget. I
• 58:33
  Speaker 6: think it's the Chiefs on the on Christmas. In week seventeen,
• 58:36
  Speaker 6: it's it's gonna be it's gonna be brutal for them.
• 58:39
  Speaker 6: So this is a narrative that's gonna play out. I
• 58:42
  Speaker 6: think Simon's guys are right. This is the year to
• 58:45
  Speaker 6: go the opposite way on the Steelers.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: So you mentioned the Steelers were nine to two in
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: one score games. That was the best mark in the NFL.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: They've been over five hundred straight up in one score
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: games for eight straight years and five hundred straight up
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: or better in ten consecutive seasons. In fact, the best
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: straight up one loss mark in one score game since
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: two thousand and seven. Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New England. We know
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: indian New England had Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Pittsburgh had
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger, obviously, but he got hurt a lot. So
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: what they really had was Mike Tomlin. So this is
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: a is you're betting the under, and a lot of
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: people feel that way. As Simon said, if you're betting
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: the under, hold your nose, yeah, close your eyes, hang
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: on to the handrail of that roller coaster, and you
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: better just pray because you are betting at your peril
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: against Mike Tomlin. There's got to be a great drop here.
• 59:49
  Speaker 5: We all talk too much. Sharp dues can just see
• 59:53
  Speaker 5: it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway.
• 59:56
  Speaker 5: They just watching, you know what I mean?
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: All Right, We're in Sharp. That was fantastic. Everyone should
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: check out Sharp Football Analysis. We appreciate Warren offering the
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