Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/13/26: Trump Blockades Hormuz Strait, Negotiations Break Down, Gas Prices Spike

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4/13/26: Trump Blockades Hormuz Strait, Negotiations Break Down, Gas Prices Spike · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. I have an
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: amazing show for Buddy today. What do we have, Crystal.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: We have all the latest details in terms of the
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: failed negotiations thus far, including Trump's decision.
• 0:42
  Speaker 4: To blockade the blockade.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: We'll try to dig into how much sense that makes
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: and how successful it will be true to Parsi is
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: also going to join to break down his view of
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: where we are in the negotiations and the American red
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: lines that made this whole thing fall apart. Oil prices
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: this morning are up for understandable reasons. Rory's going to
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: join us to talk about what he expects in the
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: near future. South Korea is aggressively fighting with Israel as
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Israel continues their mass slaughter in Lebanon. Eric Swalwell has
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: suspended his campaign for governor after serious allegations of sexual
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: assault and just generally very creepy behavior. And Norman Finkelstein
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: is going to join. It's been a while since we've
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: had norm on. He has a lot of thoughts, as
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: you can imagine, about Iran and the role Israel played
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: in getting us into this war.
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: So very much looking forward to speaking with him.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: There you go. Thank you.
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  Speaker 3: We are now two point zero two million. I think
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: what did we agree on? Two point five were two
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: point five? It can just stop after that. Two point
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: five zero is much cleaner number than two point five one.
• 2:11
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• 2:13
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• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: Start with the blockade of the blockade, let's put this
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: up here on the screen after the failed negotiations in Islamabad.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: So there you have it. The meeting went well.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: Most points were agreed to, but the only point that
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: really mattered, nuclear was not effective. Immediately, the United States Navy,
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: the finest in the world, would begin the process of
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: the streets removes.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: At some point we will reach an.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: All being allowed to go in, all being allowed to
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: go out basis. But Iran was not allowed that to happen.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: This is incomprehensible. I'm merely saying there may be a
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: mine out there somewhere. The bottom line is is that
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: there will be a US Navy blockade, which is going
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: to be implemented as of ten a m. Eastern time
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: here in the United States. Donald Trump also phoned into
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: Fox News to elaborate on this blockade.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: Tell us what you're trying to accomplish with this following
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: the all out.
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: Yep, it's called all in and all out. There'll be
• 3:22
  Speaker 6: a time when we'll have them all come in and
• 3:23
  Speaker 6: all come out. But it won't be a percentage. It
• 3:26
  Speaker 6: won't be a friend of yours, like a country that's
• 3:28
  Speaker 6: your ally or a country that your friend is all
• 3:31
  Speaker 6: or nothing, and that'll be that won't be in too
• 3:34
  Speaker 6: long a distance. No, we're just bringing the ships up.
• 3:37
  Speaker 6: We got a lot of ships, so we're bringing them up.
• 3:40
  Speaker 6: We think that numerous countries are going to be helping
• 3:42
  Speaker 6: us with this also, but we're putting on a complete blockade.
• 3:46
  Speaker 6: We're not going to let a ran make money on
• 3:48
  Speaker 6: selling oil to people that they like and not people
• 3:51
  Speaker 6: that they don't like or whatever it is. It's going
• 3:54
  Speaker 6: to be all or none. And that's the way it is.
• 3:56
  Speaker 6: And it'll be you saw what we did with Venezuela,
• 4:00
  Speaker 6: It'll be something very similar to that, but at a
• 4:03
  Speaker 6: higher level.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: All or none.
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: Although you know, even the United States Central Command as
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: a very late last night they put out a explanation
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: that actually this will just be a blockade of Iraining ships,
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: only the Persian Gulf ships. All the other type of
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: ships would be allowed through. However, Iran is going to
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: blockade those ships. So that does actually mean an all out.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Blockading outside of close allies, outside of very China allies.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well this is the big question.
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: So forty percent of the oil that moves to the
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: Straits of hormuzes Chinese. Are we going to just be
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: blowing up Chinese tank or something makes me think that's
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: not going to happen.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: A really bad idea. It to be horrible every sort
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: of level, including the fact. Listen, we already know with
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: the Chinese that they have sorry no pun intended a
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Trump card, which is, you know, when we went to
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: war with them economic war through the tariffs, they were like,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: that's great, you don't get access to our wearer's minerals,
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: and very quickly Trump caved intelligently and was like, you know,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: the stupid part was the threat to begin with, not
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: realizing the sort of cards that they held, and his
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: sort of karlance, and very quickly they forced him to
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: realize that they had a much stronger position, and that
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: central leverage point obviously still remains.
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: The other thing that's very interesting.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: Here is, you know, Trump apparently didn't contemplate at all
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: that they would be able to close the.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: Straight of Horror moves or control the straight of Her moves.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: He thought this thing would be wrapped in three ds,
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: that the regime would collapse and he'd be Victoria's blah
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: blah blah. Like I think he genuinely believed that, So
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: he didn't think through this part at all. Now military
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: strategists obviously did. This is something that's been contemplated for
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: a long time. It's not clear that they contemplated the
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: situation where Iran wouldn't close the Straight of Hormons, they
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: would just control it and get to pick and choose
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: now from the US perfective.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: The good part of that is.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: It means that oil is still flowing into the global
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: markets in some significant quantities, so it eases some of
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: the price pressure on global oil and at our gas
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: pumps here in the US. The bad part of that
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: is it means that Iran continues to do what they
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: want and makes money hand over fist. So if you're
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: serious about actually completely choking this off, well, yeah, that's
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: going to damage Iron some in terms of the revenue
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: that they're bringing in, but it's also going to ratchet
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: up the economic pressure on the US. And obviously our
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: landscape is we have a population that doesn't support this
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: at all, that doesn't want to be fighting this war,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: that doesn't want to be paying more money at the
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: gas pumps.
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: So it's a very confusing move.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: And then you add to that the question, okay, well
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: what if an Indian ship cup, what if a Chinese
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: ship comes?
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: Are you really going to.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: Make this a world war by attacking the ships from
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: these nations and make a powerful nations?
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: In terms of the implementation, he's saying that we're not
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: going to allow any Iranian ships through. Well, if Iran
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: allows an Indian ship through and they charge them a
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: toll and then the US doesn't blockade them, then the
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: net effect is actually still not same. There's also a
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: breaking update this morning. Iran has just countered saying a
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: US blockade with a warning on ports, and it is
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: saying that if its ports are threatened, that that means
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: that any port in an allied nation will also be threatened,
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: effectively saying, okay, you blockade our ports, then we will
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: destroy all of the ports in the Persian Gulf, which
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: has been their trump card as well.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: And they've also directly threatened as a result of this,
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: the bob El Mundabstra which is on the other side
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: and which the hoofies, could you could restart their operation.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: It's a mess, and let's just talk high level, like
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: what is this about. The President ultimately failed in the
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: negotiations with Islamabad.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: And let's be very clear here.
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: Jd.
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: Vance had to call Trump some six to seven times
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: while he was in Islamabad. Effectively, it was dispatched there
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: with no real ability to have some sort of a
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: mandate or ability to make a deal. He has to
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: constantly call Donald Trump. The Iranians have come out and
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: put out multiple statements. They were close to some sort
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: of memorandum of understanding until Trump shifted the goalposts at
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: the last minute. This is a red line that Donald
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: Trump has drawn, which is entirely ridiculous. Which says no
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: enrichment of any kind, which would be surrender for the
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: nation of Iran, and they could never maintain even latent
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: nuclear deterrent. They do not want to end up like Goadafi,
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: would you, And so they see very clearly, they're like,
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: this is worth going to war over because giving this
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: up is actually the end of our regime after we've
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: been attacked twice by this nation under the cover of diplomacy.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: You also have Trump, who has moved the goalposts so
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: many different times. He could sign this, they could give
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: up their enrichment and they could bomb and destroy them.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Not to mention the Israelies, remember Zero and Richmond.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: Is an Israeli demand which was adopted by the President
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: of the United States. It was never never a real
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: demand from the President, even going back into June. So
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: whenever they say no nuclear weapon, what they mean is
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: no enrichment again of any kind, which is genuinely vital
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: to their security deterrence. I'm not endorsing it, I'm saying
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: this is reality.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, at this point, and the Iranians, from their perspective,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: they believe that their position will only be strengthened over
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: time because the economic pain will ratchet up on the USA.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: The political pressure will increase, especially as we get closer
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: to the minterms. So they look at this and they're like, Okay,
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: you are demanding things that are not acceptable and that
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: don't make sense given the strength of the Iranian position
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: here and the relative weakness of.
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: The American position.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: So, you know, Trump was not willing to accept the
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: demands from the Iranians and the you know that would
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: reflect the actual reality of what's been demonstrated in terms
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: of the power balance in this war because he finds
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: it too humiliating. Okay, well, then what are you going
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: to do? You know, ending the war is too humiliating
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: for him. The status quo is too painful. So it's
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: very hard to see what ends up happening. We're going
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: talk to trade a parsy in a little bit. He
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: believes that what's most likely, or at least what I
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: heard in his last interview, maybe he has changed his assessment.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: He believes what's most likely is that we don't return
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: to a full war. There's a non like negotiated settlement
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: that includes a new status quo with basically Iran continuing
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: to control the straight up formos and Israel doing effectively
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: whatever Israel wants to do. That's the direction that he
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: thinks things are going in. But let's be clear, if
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: that is what happens here and you end up in
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: this sort of like low level conflict with a new
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: status quo, with the strait of horror moves, that's a
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: disaster for the US. And it's certainly not going to
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: return oil prices to what they were before this disastrous
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: war started.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: Right, and then this is also a return to the
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: quote maximum pressure strategy. Maximum pressure the idea is just
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: a return to normal. Trump both doesn't want to have
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: to continue the war, but he doesn't want to surrender
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: and show the world that he got absolutely humiliated. So
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: he's trying to do a blockade. But maximum pressure already failed.
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: We already threw every sanction in the world at Iran.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: Now this is just even more of a sanction with
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: a naval blockade. Also, let's just say this naval blockade
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: is an active work, just so we're all very aware
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: of that. Remember when President Kennedy tried to block a
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: or blockaded Keys both, they had to call it a
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: quarantine because blockade literally is an active war. So Congress
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: By the way, you're still allowed to get involved here
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: if you want to. All of this just means that
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: they're flailing about. They have really no idea what to do.
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: This is almost certainly this is going to shock the
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: world oil markets, but beyond even the market, because at
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: this point I think they're delusional. Yes, the global supply
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: of oil is radically shrinking, radically shrinking. Every single week
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: that this continues, this is still a closure.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Even in those couple of.
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: Days where this quote straight was open, it was barely
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: open at all.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: A couple of ships. Return to normalcy was vital.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: As of three or four weeks ago, we are already
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: in demand destruction territory, massive damage to US allies in Asia,
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: and four dollars gas is now going to be ever
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: present in our lives, at least for the next couple
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: of months, absent a serious and shocking event. So let's
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: go then to A three. Here is Trump saying he
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: predicts that they'll come back to the negotiating table.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: Yes to this. You know, I make one statement. They say, oh,
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: such a big deal. Let me tell you that statement
• 12:05
  Speaker 6: got them to the bargaining table and they haven't left.
• 12:08
  Speaker 6: They haven't left the bargaining table. I predict they come
• 12:11
  Speaker 6: back and they give us everything we want. And I
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: told my people I want everything. I don't want ninety percent.
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: I don't want ninety five percent. I told them I
• 12:20
  Speaker 6: want everything.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Well, and what they They have no cards.
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: Maria, Maria, yep, they have no cards. Their navy is gone,
• 12:28
  Speaker 6: their air force is gone, totally gone. They have nothing.
• 12:30
  Speaker 6: They have no ships. One hundred and fifty eight chips
• 12:34
  Speaker 6: are at the bottom of the sea.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Good ones, good ones.
• 12:37
  Speaker 6: New the Solomani. They had one called the Solomon. He
• 12:41
  Speaker 6: was taken out by one of our tiger sharks, by
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: one of our rapid, rapidly moving submarines. It's amazing. Our
• 12:49
  Speaker 6: military is so good. Do you know our military is
• 12:51
  Speaker 6: a ninety four percent approval rating them Well, Congress says
• 12:55
  Speaker 6: a fourteen percent. The media has a twelve percent. When
• 12:59
  Speaker 6: I started, the media had a ninety two percent approval writing.
• 13:02
  Speaker 6: Now they're down to fourteen percent, and I'm very proud
• 13:05
  Speaker 6: of it because they're very dishonest.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: Okay, So that's where we're at right now. I mean, look,
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: is literally delusional. And let's continue then to seize the
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: damage that we took in this war. A genuinely stunning image.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: Just put this one up here on the screen from
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: A four. This was reported by the guys over at
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: the war zone. They do incredible like military reporting, and
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: they're showing here a CAC one th five tanker that
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: is covered in shrapnel patches seen landing in the UK,
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: So you could actually see all of those different holes
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: that were patched all over the plane. If you've ever
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: seen that meme about World War two fires, actually is
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: kind of reminiscent of that. But the amount of shrapnel
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: clearly that this has taken shows that ron you know,
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: very they have very much had the capability to inflict
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: damage on very strategic assets. So they played their asymmetric
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: hand really, really well. I was talking this weekend with
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: a friend who longtime military, and I was I was
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: asking straight to before moves question. I'm like, you guys
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: had forty years to plan with this, How is this possible?
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: He's like, dude, it was the drones.
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: Like at the end of the day, we just didn't
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: pay enough attention to the Ukraine and Russia conflict. We
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: did not realize how much the drone threat was going
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: to radically change the equation.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: They really believed in.
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: The old days that all they had to do is
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: they could use those planes to take out you know,
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: those small boats the IRGC, and that they could shock
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: an awe in the beginning, take out the ballistic missile
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: and anti ship missile capacity, and they'd probably be good
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: to go.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: They'd have that ability.
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: But the carriers and all the other destroy you know,
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: all the other stuff was never able to get arranged
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: because of the drone threat. And on top of that,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: you're taking all these strategic damage to the US oil,
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: to the oil assets of all of the Gulf. The
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: drone threat has radically shifted warfare in a four to
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: five different in a four to five year period, to
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: the point where.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: These aircraft carriers they may just be obsolete.
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: Like a lot of our multi trillion dollar investments over
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: the years.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you used to give up and be like, Okay,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: we were wrong. It's over. Back to the all over,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: back to the drawing board.
• 15:05
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: Well, and that raises another question too, which is there's
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: a reason why we pulled our aircraft carriers back further
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: away from Iran because we can't couldn't be in range.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: So now are we going to bring them closer in
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: for this blockade that creates tremendous risks as well. That
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: is not a risk free decision. So I think that's
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: you know, that's extraordinary analysis. And at the same time,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: you know, you have to ask a question of how
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: serious they even were going into these negotiations. While the
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: thing was falling apart, Rubio and Trump were at a
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: UFC event. We could put these images up on the screen.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: Trump apparently got booed there by the way, which sign
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: of you know, his fall and popularity previously was treated
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: like a you know, like a king when he would
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: go to these events. And so here you have the
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: President of the United States and the Secretary of State,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: like the one guy in the administration. There's Marco doing
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: his like whatever that Miami area code, yeah gang sign
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: or whatever that is, Yeah, right exactly, check its tattoos. Anyway,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: you know, they're out there having a good old time,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: and meanwhile these negotiations are falling apart, and so you
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: have to ask, like, did they ever even intend for
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: this to get anywhere? And then the other question is
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: possible that this is all a negotiating tactic and they
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: went in very blase and really with the plan of Okay,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: we're going to blow up the first round, then we're
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: going to apply this additional pressure, and then maybe then
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: we'll soften them up and we'll have a better chance
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: of striking some sort of deal that's less than utterly humiliating.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: But the basic military landscape is still the same. It's
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: still the same reality. You don't have a military option
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: that's acceptable to you to open.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: The straight up four moves.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: Your one attempt at going in on the ground at all,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: whether it was for just a pilot rescue or whether
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: there was something else going on on there, Yeah, you
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: got your guy allegedly, but you did not. But you
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: also had to blow up a whole bunch of aircraft
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: on the ground, and it was not a success from
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: that perspective. So you, you know, realize that you've got
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: a real problem there if you're going to put boots
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: on the ground in mainland or on or any of
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: these islands.
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: None of that reality has changed.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: So Trump thinks he can, you know, bluster and threaten
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: and cajole his way into getting a better deal. But
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: the Iranians, i think have long since stopped really listening
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: to him, and they pay attention to the things that
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: he does, not the nonsense that he says.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Let's think about it. The UFC thing is a perfect example.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: This is why I genuinely believe that the talks works
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: kind of set to fail. Is if you dispatch a
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: negotiator to the talks, who has to then call you
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: ten You know, at the minimum what we know of
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: is six plus times, and then Trump can constantly weigh
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: in on this detail or that detail, and then you're
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: at a UFC a fight with the Secretary of State,
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: the literal.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Chief diplomat of the country.
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: How real was this talk in the first place? In
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: my opinion, it look, this is puritist speculation. This is
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: my idea. Trump and Rubio were like, here's what we
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: need to do. We need to show any of the
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: internal dissenters in our cabinet and to the world that
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: actual diplomacy. We tried it, but it totally failed, and
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: then when it fails, we can go back to what
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: we wanted to do in the first place. He's some
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: sort of naval blockade. I don't know, at the very least,
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: like he's flailing. If he really wanted negotiation, he would
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: drop the Israeli line of zero enrichment, but he seems
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: to believe it. And you know, look Bebe's up in
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: his ear telling him about how we got to be
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: doing this. Also, you know Mark Levin, the entire neocon
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: you know industrial complex, as you know, they're loyal to
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: Trump when he's.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Doing their bidding. This is the irony of it.
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: With a moment he departs, as we showed everybody on
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: our show, when he announces he's fired. They're furious and
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: they're calling him. They're making all this propaganda's oh hells
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: to nuke them. You should invade them. You can't let
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: them humiliate you. So they're playing the game. They're pressing
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: him very very hard. Again, the manhas agency. I believe
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: that this was basically set up to fail from the
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: very beginning. Real peace talks don't happen this way. Here
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: was the Vice president in Islamabad shortly after some twenty
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: one hours of talks basically announced they totally failed.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 19:17
  Speaker 7: We've been at it now for twenty one hours and
• 19:21
  Speaker 7: we've had a number of substance discussions with the Iranians.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: That's the good news.
• 19:26
  Speaker 7: The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement.
• 19:28
  Speaker 7: And I think that's bad news for a Ran much
• 19:30
  Speaker 7: more than it's bad news for the United States of America.
• 19:32
  Speaker 7: So we go back to the United States having not
• 19:35
  Speaker 7: come to an agreement. We've made very clear what our
• 19:38
  Speaker 7: redlines are, what things we're willing to accommodate them on,
• 19:41
  Speaker 7: and what things we're not willing to accommodate them on.
• 19:44
  Speaker 7: And we've made that as clear as we possibly could.
• 19:47
  Speaker 7: And they have chosen not to accept our terms.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: They have chosen not to accept our term. It's not
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: even our turn, it's Trump's terms. Let's go to the
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: next one. This is from Galabah, the chief negotiator on
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: the Iranian side. He says, before the negotiations emphasize we
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: have the necessary good faith and will, but due to
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: trust in the opposing side. My colleagues on the Iranian delegation,
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: the MINAB one sixty eight raised forward looking initiatives, but
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations. Some people
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: are taking note of that in this round of negotiations
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: keeping the door open to the future. He says, America
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: has understood our logic and principles. Now it's time for
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not.
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: We consider every mirror to be another method of authority
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: diplomacy alongside military struggle for upholding the rights of the
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: Iranian nation, and we will not for a moment cease
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: our efforts to consolidate the achievements of the forty days
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: of Iran's national defense. He continues that he is grateful
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: for the efforts of our friendly, only brotherly country Pakistan,
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: which continues, you know, to try to push some sort
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: of negotiations in the future. The Foreign Minister of Iran, Arachi.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Also spoke out.
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: Let's put his tweet up there on the screen. He says,
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: in intensive talks at the highest level in forty seven years,
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: Iran engaged with the US in good faith to end
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: the war. But when just inches away from an Islamabad
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: member of memorandum of understanding, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: and blockade.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Zero lessons.
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: Girl learned goodwill begets goodwill, enmity begets enmity, and I
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: do think that this confirms a Trump you know, eventually
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: they would try and work out something which they thought
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: was relatively reasonable. They called Trump, He's like, no, absolutely not.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: He decides to do some sort of a naval blockade.
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: So that's where we are as of right now. Things
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: could change. The oil markets are not responding in a
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: way which is I think going to force his hand entirely.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Let me take a look at the stock futures.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: Stock futures are down zero point sixty seven percent.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, terrible, right, but nothing.
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's phenomenal, but nothing catastrophic by any means. Everybody
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: still seems to think some sort of inevitable taco is
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: going to happened. But I mean from all the oil
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: analysts and others that we've spoken to and all of
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: the other stand the amount of storage, like the storage
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: is dried up in the Gulf. They already had to
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: cut production. Damage has been done to multiple different oil
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: and gas facilities. The hold up on fertilizer and natural
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: gas and on what else. By the helium is already
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: you know, going to show up in the global supply chain.
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: We will live with this four months and even with
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: the naval blockade sent coom announcing this morning. I was
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: just taking a look that every ship in and out
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: will be subject to US inspection. So that's I mean,
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: this could be like Iraq in the nineties. We had
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: a no fly zone over Iraq in the nineties. This
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: was a precursor to the war with Iraq because they
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: would always say, oh, Sadam violated the no fly zone whatever.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: But my point is, just.
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: Like that took billions of dollars, it actually costs lives.
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: It ended up being just some sort of permanent empire
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: mission over a rock for nothing, really, you know, after
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: the Persia, after the original Golf War, and this very
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: much could be where Trump doesn't want to restart the war,
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: but we just have this multi billion dollar boondoggle, straits
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: of horror moves situation Iran can continue to suffer. It
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: just seems like a nightmare all the way around for us,
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: for them, for the Persian golf countries as well.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: So that's where we are.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think he really doesn't want to restart
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: the war because it was such a disaster. He doesn't
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: really want to surrender either. Something's got to break. Maybe
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: Iran will just start firing and again and then we'll
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: go back to a hot war. It's very possible. Yeah
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: that happens, then it's NUK or ground troops. I don't
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: see another way out.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a Wall Street Journal report that Trump's considering
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: limited military strikes.
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, what is that? Yeah, exactly.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: And it's not like he's still under the illusion that
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: he gets to completely control the escalation. That's not the
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: way that works. I mean, Iran has already demonstrated like, Okay,
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: you go after our oil and gas infrastructure where it
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: hit the Gulf.
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: States, they have that capacity.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Or you know, you go after our businesses, We're going
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: to hit your data centers in the region. They've already
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: demonstrated that they're able to do that. There was another
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: report this morning, so Trump had said in that Maria
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Bartiromo interview that he thought other countries were going to
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: come and help with our blockade of the blockade, and
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: so far everyone's like, yeah, you're on your own on
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: this one. Britain has said no, Australia said no, obviously,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Spain said no, there's no other country that's been like us.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: We're on our way, We're going to come and help
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: you out. So I mean That's the other piece here
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: in terms of the pressure is we really don't have
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: outside of Israel, we really don't have any allies that are.
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: Rushing to our defense.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I guess you could put UAE in that camp as
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: well now, because the situation is so catastrophic that they're
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: like barely a country anyway. And then I think the
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: original idea probably of this blockade, of the blockade is
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: to put pressure on China, so that China puts pressure
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: on Iran. But if you're now saying, well, we're just
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: going to block Iranian ships, well that's not really going
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: to put any pressure on China whatsoever.
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: This is where the confusion is. Let me read you verbatim.
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: This came out like six minutes ago. US Central Command
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: Issues noticed a seafarers about the blockade, warning any vessel
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: going to or from Iran is subject to interception, diversion,
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: and capture. The blockade encompasses the entirety of the Iranian
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: coastline to include, but not limited to ports and oil terminals.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: So that isn't just Iranian ships, right, that is Chinese ships.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah it is. I mean we're in a different world.
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: Right, right, So think about how this goes.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, then if a Chinese ship shows up, are
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: you actually going to fire on them?
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: Like, what are you going to do?
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: We're going to board a Chinese vessel on right? This
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: is These are serious diplomatic incidents. I don't even I
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: don't know. I just think about it, and I think,
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: can we would the United States of America would a
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: US merchant marine and or flagged vessel except boarding an
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: inspection through the Taiwan Strait? No, like that, It's time
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: to go at that point, because then what does that
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: mean you control the strategic or the Straits of Malacca?
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: If the Chinese navy just to Claire's, all of a sudden,
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: we are putting a cord in over Taiwan. All of
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: us understand that is an.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Act of war.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: I'm not saying we should go, but at that point, like, okay,
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: we are in crisis mode. You have declared literal like
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: basically annexation and total control of these of these waterways,
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: and look, that is the purpose.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: Of the US Navy.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: Do we all have confidence that we can actually do
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: it at this point?
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: Are we going to escalate from men all the way up?
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: This is a serious, serious shot across the bow at them.
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: And yeah, with the Chinese, I mean they've called our
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: bluff every single time they did. Let's give them credit.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: They actually worked pretty hard to try and get a ceasefire.
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: They pushed Iran to the table. The question is is
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: will they buckle? But the other problem is if we
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: have some sort of diplomatic incident. Remember the Trump she
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: summit is sometime next month. We don't have a date.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: We're really going to blow it all up over Iran
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: of all places, right, Like we don't even get much
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: oil out of this place.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: Like that is why it is.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: The whole thing is so crazy if we just think
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: about how much better off we would be in the
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: February twenty seventh status quo, how much it was so
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: much better the comparatively two dollars ninety cents gal two
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: dollars ninety cents gasoline.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Iran just didn't have a nuclear weapon.
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: They actually had a leader who really didn't want a
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: nuclear weapon, where now they really might have a leader
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: who wants clear weaponry conciliatory.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: In those negotiations, the Omani Prime minister said, like there
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: was a deal. I mean they had gone way further
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: than they even went during the JCPOA and Trump could
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: have done that, it could have claim mission accomplished.
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: Look, I was able to get a deal. Obama never did.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Our maximum pressure campaign is a success, and they were
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: too weak and lame to be able to do what
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: I can do or of the deal on to Cuba
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: or whatever next night Mary has in store for us.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: But instead he decided that he needed this grand, glorious
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: military victory, and instead it has turned into an absolute
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: total disaster. And just assuming uh, look, we're are in
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: in a proxy war with Russia by Ukraine now, and
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't yet call this a proxy war with China,
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: but we are very close to, you know, effectively being
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: in that situation. It only takes a few of these
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: incidents before you're also now in a proxy war with China.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: And China has been assisting the Iranians more than had
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: previously been reported. That's part of why they were in
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: the position. They were to pressure or on to come
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: to the negotiating table at a time when a lot
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: of the IRGC was very opposed to even starting negotiations
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: at this point and thought that there needed to be
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: a lot more pain. So, you know, China again like
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: at a time when obviously our military supplies are very
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: low and we need to resupply. They control a lot
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: of the critical supply lines we would need to be
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: able to accomplish that, and so they really have as
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: been a bit of a choke hold here, which is
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: what the Trump administration has already discovered. So I don't
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: know where this thing goes, but it's hard to see
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: any sort of resolution that is going to be positive whatsoever.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: The best we can help for at this point is
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: that the first round of negotiations was basically for show
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: and to bluster and and you know, demonstrate how tough
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: we are and that we'll walk away from the table
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: blah blah blah and that. But that they are willing
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: to come back and get serious about making a deal
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: with Iran. That reflects the reality that the Iranians demonstrated
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: a lot more capability than what we expected them too.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: That's exactly right.
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: Last thing, let's put this warning from the AI IRGC
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: A eight.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Let's put it on the screen.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned any miscalculated move will trap
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: the enemy in the deadly whirlpool of the straits of horror.
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: Moves after Trump ordered a US naval blockade of the
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: strategic waterway, so you can see they continue to have
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: that capacity. Remember they have the small boats. Also, remember this,
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: Trump said that there were no mines in the straits
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: of Horror Moves, and now they're like, oh, well we
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: have to do mind clearing. So there are mines in
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: the straits of Horror Moves.
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: Just so we all there's been there were a lot
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: of sigh ups.
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: So many fascinating things here. It's like, oh, so there
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: actually are minds in the streets, so hor moves. So
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: they did have the capacity all of these are you know, Oh,
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: CIA estimate comes out half of the Iranian missiles are
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: still operable. They're digging them out. Ron's national media reporting
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: this morning that they're redoing all of their railway right.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: It's like, oh, it's not so easy, is it? Turns out?
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: As we I mean, we've learned these lessons one hundred
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: years ago. Yeah, you can bomb a railway unless you've
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: got a general Sherman. This is two hundred years almost
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: at this point, sitting there and you know, forming the
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: metal Sherman necktie. Yes, actually it's very easily to replace
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: if it's only under aerial bombardon as we saw in
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: World War Two. So this is the problem that we
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: have strategically. It's either ground invasion or it's nuclear weapon,
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: or it is actually diplomacy at this point, which is
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: basically surrender. I'm just not sure that anybody is there yet,
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: and that's the unfortunate lesson of history.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: So we've got treat to Parsi standing by. Let's get to.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: It for more on the so far failed negotiations. We
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: are joined by treats a Parsi of the Quincy Institute.
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: Great to see you, sir, to see you, to be
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: with you guys. Yeah, of course.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: So let's go ahead and put this first element up
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: on the screen from Barock revied, which claims to be
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: the US red lines from the negotiations, according to him
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: from a US official, they said, ending all uranian enrichment,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: dismantling all major nuclear enrichment facilities, retrieve highly enriched uranium
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: except a broader peace, security and de escalation framework that
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: includes regional allies and funding for terrorist proxies. Hamas has
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: blend who these fully open straight or formula.
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: Is charging no tolls for passage.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: One gap in the talks was the amount of Iranian
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: frozen funds that will be released per source, with knowledge
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: your reaction to these purported US red lines, and also
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: where we are right now in terms of any sort
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: of resolution to the war.
• 31:36
  Speaker 8: If these are the American red lines, and if these
• 31:38
  Speaker 8: were the actual negotiation positions of the delegation in Islamabad,
• 31:44
  Speaker 8: then I don't think there was any need for any
• 31:46
  Speaker 8: negotiations at all.
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: Those are dead on arrival. The US side knows it.
• 31:50
  Speaker 8: I don't think this is accurately reflected in the talks.
• 31:54
  Speaker 8: I think also there's a problem in which certain there's
• 31:57
  Speaker 8: a diversity of views within the administration and various people
• 32:01
  Speaker 8: are trying to influence the final position by leaking these
• 32:05
  Speaker 8: type of things and making them the reality. I do
• 32:09
  Speaker 8: think also that in the talks there were a lot
• 32:11
  Speaker 8: of progress made, including on the nuclear issue, but at
• 32:14
  Speaker 8: last moment, there was a shift on the American side.
• 32:17
  Speaker 8: Whether that was part of a negotiation tactic or whether
• 32:21
  Speaker 8: that is yet another example of shifting goalposts, which unfortunately
• 32:27
  Speaker 8: has become the hallmark of this administration's negotiations with Iran,
• 32:31
  Speaker 8: remains to be seen.
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, doctor Parci, let's talk about that, because the Foreign
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: Minister Arachi. He came out and said, we had a
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: memorandum of understanding basically ready to go. Then the shifting
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: goalposts started. Now I seem to think that's an allusion
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: to the nuclear enrichment as in a red line of
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: zero in Richmond. Let's be clear about where that came from.
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: It appears to be in Israeli demand. Now, what's your
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: view there of how that demand enters in the last minute.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: Is it Israel calling Trump saying this is unacceptable? How
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: exactly did this go? How do the Iranians view their negotiations?
• 33:09
  Speaker 8: So we know that in the previous negotiations, this is
• 33:13
  Speaker 8: a shift that occurred as a result of these Raelies
• 33:16
  Speaker 8: pushing very very hard for it and using their echo
• 33:19
  Speaker 8: chamber in Washington, et cetera to kind of push Trump
• 33:22
  Speaker 8: in that direction. And that's part of the reason, a
• 33:25
  Speaker 8: critical reason as to why the talks failed, because you know,
• 33:28
  Speaker 8: the only reason why the talks even began in the
• 33:30
  Speaker 8: first place was because Trump kept on saying, my only
• 33:34
  Speaker 8: red line is nuclear weapons, not nuclear enrichment or nuclear capability.
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: Had he said from the outset that his.
• 33:41
  Speaker 8: Red line is nuclear capability and enrichment, I don't think
• 33:44
  Speaker 8: the Iranians would have come to the table in the
• 33:46
  Speaker 8: first place, but once at the table this shifted as
• 33:49
  Speaker 8: a result of pressure from Israel. Whether that is the
• 33:52
  Speaker 8: case here or not again remains to be seen. I
• 33:56
  Speaker 8: can see a scenario in which because of progress having
• 33:59
  Speaker 8: been made, the US side kind of pulls back, knowing
• 34:03
  Speaker 8: very well that there's still another week or so left
• 34:05
  Speaker 8: of the ceasefire, sees what else it can get by
• 34:10
  Speaker 8: adding some pressure, and then if it gets something else,
• 34:13
  Speaker 8: and even if it doesn't, it will have formed a
• 34:15
  Speaker 8: narrative of said that the Yvani has caved because the
• 34:18
  Speaker 8: US threatened to close the strait of or the Persian
• 34:22
  Speaker 8: Golf as a whole with enabled blockade, etc. So a
• 34:25
  Speaker 8: lot of these things I think should be read as
• 34:28
  Speaker 8: tactics within and a negotiation, rather than necessarily and enter
• 34:33
  Speaker 8: the negotiations, because it's very important to keep two things
• 34:36
  Speaker 8: in mind. Neither side has said that the talks are over,
• 34:41
  Speaker 8: none of them, and neither side has gone back to
• 34:44
  Speaker 8: firing at each other.
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: So the ceasefire is holding.
• 34:48
  Speaker 8: And if the ceasefire is holding, that means that the negotiations,
• 34:52
  Speaker 8: at least nominally may still be alive, particularly mindful of
• 34:56
  Speaker 8: the fact that neither one of them have said this
• 34:57
  Speaker 8: is overweight, We're not going to meet again. And even
• 35:01
  Speaker 8: jade Vans's speech or presser, he said, we have made
• 35:04
  Speaker 8: our terms clear. The Iranians need to accept that or
• 35:07
  Speaker 8: something like that. He didn't say it's over.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that is a very important point. We talked to
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: them about the US's purported red lines. At least, what
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: is your sense of what the Iranian red lines may be.
• 35:19
  Speaker 8: I think on the Iranian side, it's actually quite clear.
• 35:22
  Speaker 8: That may be part of the challenge they have in
• 35:24
  Speaker 8: their negotiations. They're not going to give up the control
• 35:27
  Speaker 8: of strata or moves, but they can consider various arrangement.
• 35:30
  Speaker 8: The US side did make some proposal on that the
• 35:33
  Speaker 8: Iranians rejected those.
• 35:35
  Speaker 5: I do hope that the Iranians.
• 35:36
  Speaker 8: See a value in doing something with the US on
• 35:39
  Speaker 8: this because I think it will be very important for
• 35:41
  Speaker 8: Trump as part of his narrative, but also because it
• 35:45
  Speaker 8: may actually stabilize the situation if the US is in
• 35:48
  Speaker 8: on it in some fashion.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: So you're talking about actual sort of sharing the toll
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: with the US, that sort of it.
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: Could be different. The US proposal was sharing a toll.
• 35:58
  Speaker 8: I think it could be other things that during the
• 36:00
  Speaker 8: toll seems to be something at least Yvonian is initially rejected.
• 36:04
  Speaker 8: It could be other things. You know, what the currency
• 36:07
  Speaker 8: would be in which the tools would take place in.
• 36:09
  Speaker 8: It could be that the Ivanians would use a percentage
• 36:12
  Speaker 8: of the toll revenues not to give it to the US,
• 36:15
  Speaker 8: but to buy things from the US.
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: So I think there's various ideas, etc.
• 36:20
  Speaker 8: That can be further explored on that, And I think
• 36:23
  Speaker 8: if it ends up becoming some arrangement in which both
• 36:27
  Speaker 8: sides are involved in it one way or another, it
• 36:31
  Speaker 8: can help stabilize the situation because the critical thing is
• 36:33
  Speaker 8: to make sure that the strait opens. The Iranian objective
• 36:36
  Speaker 8: is not to close the straits. The Iranian objective is
• 36:39
  Speaker 8: to use the control of the straits in order to
• 36:41
  Speaker 8: re establish economic relations with countries that have left Ivanian market.
• 36:45
  Speaker 8: The South Koreans have already come to Yvan. The Japanese
• 36:48
  Speaker 8: are about to do their own negotiation. These are countries
• 36:51
  Speaker 8: in Asia that used to have extensive economic relations with
• 36:54
  Speaker 8: ivan but we're chased out of the market because of
• 36:57
  Speaker 8: the sanctions, because the US pressure on them was very intense.
• 37:01
  Speaker 8: Now the Iranians are pressuring them back in through the
• 37:05
  Speaker 8: Strait of Hormos.
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: It's not to close.
• 37:06
  Speaker 8: It, Yeah, this is, but I think it's there's one
• 37:09
  Speaker 8: thing I think it's very important to understand, and in
• 37:11
  Speaker 8: which the Ivanias may actually have ended up in a
• 37:14
  Speaker 8: relatively weaker position than they were in before.
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: See, the United States or Trump could not end the.
• 37:21
  Speaker 8: War without some sort of arrangement with yvon because the
• 37:24
  Speaker 8: Vanyas had a say in it, and this kind of
• 37:26
  Speaker 8: forced him into a situation in which he had to
• 37:28
  Speaker 8: ask for negotiations. But now that the Yvanians have accepted
• 37:32
  Speaker 8: a ceasefire, I think the tables have turned a little bit.
• 37:37
  Speaker 8: The United States can now actually walk away from these
• 37:39
  Speaker 8: talks and end up in a scenario in which the
• 37:42
  Speaker 8: Divanians are controlling the straits, which is, you know, from
• 37:44
  Speaker 8: the US perspective, not good, but it's not devastating. It's
• 37:49
  Speaker 8: much more problematic for other countries, particularly the GCC countries.
• 37:53
  Speaker 8: The Vivonyans don't get any sanctions relief, but the US
• 37:55
  Speaker 8: doesn't go back to war, and it kind of washes
• 37:57
  Speaker 8: his hands of this whole thing. But just walks away,
• 38:00
  Speaker 8: doesn't give anything further, doesn't get a deal, but it's
• 38:02
  Speaker 8: out of the war, which I think is Trump's critical objective.
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: All prices would come down, etc.
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: But then what does Israel do in that scenario.
• 38:10
  Speaker 8: Let me get to that one second. Yeah, But the
• 38:12
  Speaker 8: thing is, the Iranians want more than that. They want
• 38:15
  Speaker 8: a framework agreement on how to manage the relationship between
• 38:19
  Speaker 8: the United States and Yvon. They want to move beyond
• 38:22
  Speaker 8: the forty seven years of enmity. They think that they
• 38:24
  Speaker 8: finally have leverage to be able to meet the US
• 38:27
  Speaker 8: face to face and get that, and that would of
• 38:29
  Speaker 8: course entail a dramatic amount of sanctions relief, but also
• 38:33
  Speaker 8: concessions from their end on the nuclear issue from the
• 38:36
  Speaker 8: Ivanias side, that would be a much more valuable outcome
• 38:40
  Speaker 8: from this, to make sure that they actually ended this
• 38:42
  Speaker 8: situation with the United States and get some sort of agreement,
• 38:46
  Speaker 8: re established some economic relations. That's something the Ivanians want.
• 38:50
  Speaker 8: The US doesn't need this. The US could walk away
• 38:53
  Speaker 8: and would end up in a still not an ideal situation,
• 38:56
  Speaker 8: but not a terrible situation. The Ivanyas could also walk away,
• 38:59
  Speaker 8: but they would lose more if they walk away, and
• 39:02
  Speaker 8: this I think has in some ways changed the dynamics
• 39:06
  Speaker 8: because prior to the ceasefire, situation was opposite. The United
• 39:09
  Speaker 8: States could not walk away without an agreement from Iran.
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: Right, So what does that mean then, Neil Crystal asked
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: about Israel, So how would so if they did walk away,
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: it would seem logical then that Iran would actually have
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: to resume firing, because that would be the only thing
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: that would draw the United States back to a situation
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: where it had to reach this memorandum of understanding depends.
• 39:30
  Speaker 8: If the Israelis go back to war with Iran without
• 39:33
  Speaker 8: the United States, then the Iranis undoubtedly will strike at Israel,
• 39:37
  Speaker 8: and it will not be like before. They were not
• 39:39
  Speaker 8: going to go into scenario in which the Israelis slowly
• 39:42
  Speaker 8: but surely constantly increase the type of I mean Gaza
• 39:47
  Speaker 8: or a Lebanese scenario in which the Israeli gradually increase
• 39:51
  Speaker 8: their attacks on Lebanon or on Gaza while.
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: The ceasefire is still in place. They will not accept that.
• 39:58
  Speaker 8: So the slightest thing from the Israeli, the Iranis are
• 40:00
  Speaker 8: going to strike back very very hard. Then the question
• 40:03
  Speaker 8: is if the war between Israel and Iran resumed. First
• 40:06
  Speaker 8: of all, can the Israelis manage that without the United
• 40:09
  Speaker 8: States being involved? I have my severe doubts about that,
• 40:13
  Speaker 8: both from a military standpoint, from an intelligence standpoint, the
• 40:16
  Speaker 8: amount of help these Raelis need, but also from a
• 40:19
  Speaker 8: public opinion standpoint. Will these raally public go along with
• 40:23
  Speaker 8: further war with Iran in which they do take a
• 40:25
  Speaker 8: lot of hits themselves, but without the US being part
• 40:28
  Speaker 8: of the war, And I think that can change dramatically.
• 40:32
  Speaker 8: It could also create a scenario in which these Raelis will,
• 40:35
  Speaker 8: of course do their utmost to get the US back
• 40:38
  Speaker 8: into the war, and that will be a real test.
• 40:40
  Speaker 8: If Trump has managed to pull out of this war,
• 40:43
  Speaker 8: cuts his losses on the Straits, but then goes back
• 40:45
  Speaker 8: in because these Raelis want it again. I have a
• 40:48
  Speaker 8: hard time seeing that happening. But then again, I was
• 40:51
  Speaker 8: wrong about him going into this war in the first place,
• 40:53
  Speaker 8: because it was so utterly clear in my view that
• 40:55
  Speaker 8: it would be a disaster.
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: Yet he did it.
• 40:59
  Speaker 8: But you can also see a scenario in which the
• 41:01
  Speaker 8: US doesn't go back in, and then the Vanias have
• 41:03
  Speaker 8: managed to achieve something else, which is they have truly
• 41:06
  Speaker 8: separated the US from Israel. That would be a huge
• 41:08
  Speaker 8: strategic win for the Ivanias, which may be part of
• 41:11
  Speaker 8: the reason why these radis actually won't go into the
• 41:14
  Speaker 8: war again with the Yvanius knowing very well that that
• 41:16
  Speaker 8: might be an outcome from that.
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: That's interesting.
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about China's role, and as
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: we give a B three up on the screen, this
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: is some reporting to The New York Times showing that
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: China was taking more active role than previously known in Iran.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: American intelligence agencies have obtained information China in recent weeks
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: may have sent a shipment of shoulder fire missiles to
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Iran for its conflicts. They say it's not definitive that
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: the shipment was sent. There's no evidence the Chinese missiles
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: have yet been used, but even a debate in Beijing
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: over sending missiles to Iran suggests the degree that China
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: sees itself as having a stake in the conflict. Intelligence
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: agencies have assessed that China is secretly taking an active
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: stance in the war, allowing some companies to ship chemicals,
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: fuel and components that can be used.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: In military production to for the war.
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: Obviously, we take with a grain of salt anything that
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: you know, any intelligence agency says. But there's no doubt
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: China has vested interest in the resolution of this conflict.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: There's also reporting that China was involved in pushing Iran
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: to the negotiating tables. So how do you think that
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: they're viewing where we are right now?
• 42:18
  Speaker 8: So, first of all, as you said, we have to
• 42:20
  Speaker 8: take all of these different intelligence reports leaking to media
• 42:23
  Speaker 8: without much scrutiny with a pinch of salt. But I
• 42:27
  Speaker 8: think also we have to take the definition of China
• 42:30
  Speaker 8: helping Yvon somewhat carefully. For the Chinese to continue to
• 42:36
  Speaker 8: sell stuff to Yvon, including chemical things, is not from
• 42:41
  Speaker 8: the Chinese perspective in any way shipe or form them
• 42:44
  Speaker 8: actually helping Yvon in the war. Similar to the fact
• 42:47
  Speaker 8: that the United States keeps on selling a lot of things,
• 42:49
  Speaker 8: even short of weapons, to Israel, even it's selling up
• 42:52
  Speaker 8: the weapons, it doesn't necessarily view as a provocative move. Imagine,
• 42:56
  Speaker 8: you know, accusations that just because the United States, which
• 42:58
  Speaker 8: is sell other type of things to Israel during the war,
• 43:01
  Speaker 8: that that would be active support for the war from.
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: The US side.
• 43:04
  Speaker 8: So I think the definitional issue is quite important to
• 43:07
  Speaker 8: understand here. Having said that, I do believe that the
• 43:09
  Speaker 8: Chinese have provided the Unians with intelligence and other measures
• 43:13
  Speaker 8: without getting directly involved in this is still way below
• 43:17
  Speaker 8: any threshold that would really justify the US doing anything.
• 43:20
  Speaker 8: In particular, the Chinese have any interest in getting this
• 43:23
  Speaker 8: result of a SAP. There is this view in Washington
• 43:26
  Speaker 8: that as soon as the US shoots itself in the foot,
• 43:28
  Speaker 8: that benefits China. There is truth to that, undoubtedly, but
• 43:32
  Speaker 8: it is a simplistic, black and white view of the Chinese.
• 43:36
  Speaker 8: The Chinese, more than anything else, want to make sure
• 43:38
  Speaker 8: that there is stability in the Persian Gulf. They are
• 43:40
  Speaker 8: much more affected by high old prices and by the
• 43:43
  Speaker 8: flow of oil from the Persian Golf than the US's
• 43:46
  Speaker 8: and if this continues to become a real debacle on
• 43:50
  Speaker 8: the energy markets, the Chinese are going to suffer tremendously
• 43:53
  Speaker 8: from that, and there's no win in that for them,
• 43:55
  Speaker 8: even if the US itself is also hurting itself through
• 43:58
  Speaker 8: that process. Surprised that the Chinese potentially have played the
• 44:02
  Speaker 8: role in the background to try to get an agreement,
• 44:05
  Speaker 8: I think they would want to keep their fingerprints off
• 44:07
  Speaker 8: of it. They don't want any responsibility for what is
• 44:10
  Speaker 8: going on. There's one thing to help, there's another thing
• 44:13
  Speaker 8: to actually become a partner openly in this, and then
• 44:15
  Speaker 8: suddenly you shared a responsibility for the outcome instead of
• 44:18
  Speaker 8: Trump who started this war.
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: So I think the Chinese are going to be very
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: careful about that.
• 44:23
  Speaker 8: But behind the scenes, I'm sure they're going to do
• 44:24
  Speaker 8: things to try to make sure that it goes in
• 44:26
  Speaker 8: a direction that benefits them, which is for this issue
• 44:29
  Speaker 8: to be resolved.
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: And then my question here is on the blockade.
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: So let's say that the scenario that you laid out happens,
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: Trump walks but he keeps a naval blockade. Is that
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: a tolerable situation for iron How long could they really
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: survive without doing something radical to try and change the
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: status quo.
• 44:45
  Speaker 8: You know, the Irani's are actually prepared themselves for this scenario,
• 44:48
  Speaker 8: including having a lot of oil outside of the Pursent
• 44:50
  Speaker 8: Gulf already. Moreover, I think it's important to recognize that
• 44:55
  Speaker 8: in this scenario I'm talking about, in which the US
• 44:57
  Speaker 8: walks away, there would likely be more economic pressure on Iran,
• 45:01
  Speaker 8: but I'm not so sure there would be that naval blockade,
• 45:03
  Speaker 8: not necessarily, at least in its full form, perhaps a
• 45:05
  Speaker 8: nominal one. But just think about it. The Iranians are
• 45:09
  Speaker 8: selling oil to India and to China. What is the
• 45:11
  Speaker 8: US going to do? They're going to stop those shipments?
• 45:13
  Speaker 8: They think that's a punishment of Iran. That's a punishment
• 45:16
  Speaker 8: of China and India. That's a direct confrontation and with
• 45:20
  Speaker 8: the Chinese and the Indians and other countries in Asia
• 45:22
  Speaker 8: that are buying this oil. So it is not as
• 45:25
  Speaker 8: simple as to believe that this is just some sort
• 45:27
  Speaker 8: of a pressure on Iran. It will be pressure on Iran,
• 45:30
  Speaker 8: but more than anything else, it will be pressure on
• 45:31
  Speaker 8: other countries that actually have strong relations with the US
• 45:35
  Speaker 8: and on the energy markets. Anything that right now takes
• 45:38
  Speaker 8: energy off of markets will push up all prices. That
• 45:42
  Speaker 8: will lead to higher gas prices in the United States,
• 45:45
  Speaker 8: which dramatically backfires on Trump and on the Republican Party
• 45:49
  Speaker 8: in the midterms. On top of that, if the US
• 45:52
  Speaker 8: goes really hard on this issue, then there's a highlightlihood
• 45:57
  Speaker 8: that the Hooties will step in and they will close
• 45:59
  Speaker 8: off the Gulf of Aden and there won't be any
• 46:02
  Speaker 8: ships going through there either. That suddenly means that another
• 46:05
  Speaker 8: twelve percent, in addition to the twenty percent of the
• 46:09
  Speaker 8: flu of oil that has been compromised because of Yvon's
• 46:14
  Speaker 8: current control of the Straits, would also then go off
• 46:18
  Speaker 8: the market, and that will dramatically push up oil prices. Moreover,
• 46:23
  Speaker 8: in order for this to be workable for the US,
• 46:25
  Speaker 8: even if the US is capable of absorbing those hits,
• 46:30
  Speaker 8: it would require that this goes on for some time.
• 46:33
  Speaker 5: This is not a quick thing.
• 46:34
  Speaker 8: This is not something in which you do it and
• 46:36
  Speaker 8: suddenly the Iranians came, And then that raises the question
• 46:39
  Speaker 8: who has most tolerance for this, the United States, and
• 46:42
  Speaker 8: not just the United States, but Donald Trump in his
• 46:44
  Speaker 8: political situation, or the Iranians. I think this is yet
• 46:48
  Speaker 8: another one of these examples in which, yes, the US
• 46:51
  Speaker 8: can escalate, but the Rani encounter escalation is far more
• 46:55
  Speaker 8: painful to the US than the US's own escalation against
• 46:58
  Speaker 8: Yvon initially is against Evan.
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: My last question for you, Triuten, You've set us up
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: well for our next block, which is an oil analyst
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: is going to join us to talk about what he's
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: seeing in the markets right now. But what about the
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: role of Saudi Arabia and UAE, who have signaled they
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: want the war to continue. All the indications are that
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: they're pushing in that direction. Ua has even potentially already
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: but certainly signaled their willingness to join the war as
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: a combatant themselves. You know, what sort of messages do
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: you think they'll be sending to President Trump.
• 47:28
  Speaker 8: So there's a lot of conflicting reporting about Saudi Arabia
• 47:32
  Speaker 8: in which it is at times pushing for this, and
• 47:34
  Speaker 8: then there's a reporting that says that it is not.
• 47:37
  Speaker 8: I think the ue is a little bit more clear,
• 47:39
  Speaker 8: but I think it's stunningly clear. If the US pulls
• 47:42
  Speaker 8: itself out of the war, what is.
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: The UEI going to do. The UE is in a very,
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: very dire situation.
• 47:48
  Speaker 8: It has made a huge mistake, in my view, making
• 47:52
  Speaker 8: itself a frontline state against yvon within Israel's enmity with
• 47:57
  Speaker 8: Yvonne because of its signing on to the abram To Court.
• 48:00
  Speaker 8: Its own problems with Iran were far more resolvable than
• 48:03
  Speaker 8: the problems between Israel and Iran. But now it is
• 48:06
  Speaker 8: beholden to Israel's enmity with yvon while it itself is
• 48:10
  Speaker 8: only fifty or so kilometers away from Iran.
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: At its closest point.
• 48:16
  Speaker 8: To one of the Yvonian Islands, whereas Israel is twelve
• 48:18
  Speaker 8: hundred or whatever kilometers away from Iran. So I think
• 48:21
  Speaker 8: this was a huge mistake. But it should also be
• 48:24
  Speaker 8: said there's huge differences within the GCC, and some of
• 48:27
  Speaker 8: the GCC countries are privately very happy to see that
• 48:30
  Speaker 8: the Yue has been hit very hard in this war,
• 48:33
  Speaker 8: and that this is really set back the Yue's influence
• 48:36
  Speaker 8: within the region and within the GCC itself very interesting.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Well, everyone should should take note of the fact at
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: a time when the Abraham Accords were being praised as
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: this landmark piece deal, you were sounding the alarm and
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: saying this could actually increase tension and division, and it
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: was far from the sort of utopia that it was
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: being portrayed as Trida PARSI always great to have you.
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: Thank you so much, Thank you so much for having me.
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: Appreciate it.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: Joining us now is great friend of the show, Rory Johnston.
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: He's the founder of Commodity Context, a fantastic substack which
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: we'll have a link down in the description. Thanks for
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: joining us again, Rory, appreciate your time.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Thanks for having me this morning.
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: So you were reposted by the presidents of the United
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: States seemingly bragging about policy. Maybe we can turn the
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: tables here a little bit. We'll steal a feel repost
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: this segment the president announcing a full naval blockade of Iran.
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: Let's put this up here on the screen, effectively announcing
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: that they will not allow any vessel to enter an
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: Iranian port. So sentcom clarifying this morning that any vessel
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: that is headed for Iran is subject to and I
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: want to get this language correct, interception, diversion, and capture
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: literally any vessel, not just an Iranian vessel. So, Rory,
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: you're are a resident oil analyst, what does this mean
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: for the global oil markets?
• 49:53
  Speaker 9: Yeah, So, just for context here, one of the things
• 49:56
  Speaker 9: that I think is important to give in mind, and
• 49:57
  Speaker 9: one of the weird things about this crisis, the is
• 50:00
  Speaker 9: that if you had asked any oil analyst, myself included
• 50:03
  Speaker 9: three months ago, if you know Iran was going to
• 50:06
  Speaker 9: close the Straight of Hormus, would Iran still be exporting oil?
• 50:09
  Speaker 9: And the answer would have been obviously known, right, That
• 50:11
  Speaker 9: would have been something that obviously in such a situation,
• 50:14
  Speaker 9: the United States or whatever kind of opposing party would
• 50:17
  Speaker 9: have blockaded those those shipments. And the strange thing is
• 50:20
  Speaker 9: that throughout the crisis, Iran has continued to export its oil,
• 50:23
  Speaker 9: not only export its oil, but at higher prices, and
• 50:26
  Speaker 9: thanks to US Treasury sanctions re appeal to more and
• 50:30
  Speaker 9: more consumers at lower and lower discounts. So they've actually
• 50:32
  Speaker 9: been making kind of great money out of this process
• 50:35
  Speaker 9: thus far. And one of the things, and now you know,
• 50:39
  Speaker 9: and now Trump is trying to remediate that and saying, okay,
• 50:41
  Speaker 9: now we're going to cut off.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: The flow of oil after six weeks.
• 50:44
  Speaker 9: So I think the question here now is, you know,
• 50:46
  Speaker 9: the first Iranian tanker or the first Iranian ship either
• 50:50
  Speaker 9: direction to test this blockade is going to set up
• 50:53
  Speaker 9: this next step for escalation because thus far Iran has
• 50:58
  Speaker 9: generally withheld are held back from attacking production assets across
• 51:03
  Speaker 9: the Middle East or or or you know, export and
• 51:06
  Speaker 9: loading infrastructure. If they now can't export their oil, maybe
• 51:10
  Speaker 9: that's the next thing up for grabs. I should let's
• 51:12
  Speaker 9: say the United States fire on or sees an Iranian tanker.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: Let me go ahead and put guys C seven up
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: on the screen. I wanted to get your reaction to this,
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: and this was written up by drop site from publicly
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: available information. They say Iran has about one hundred and
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: seventy four million barrels of oil in floating storage that
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: a blockade would not touch, and you can see all
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: of the details there. They say over ninety percent is
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: bound for China, carried largely by ghost fleet tankers running dark,
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: one hundred twenty nine tankers linked to a running crewed
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: currently sailing dark. According to Windward, US naval blockade of
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: Irani imports won't intercept oil that is already at sea,
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: and then it goes through a list of where these
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: tankers are located. You know, how does this factor into
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: your calculation? Because it seems that Iran has somewhat prepared
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: for a scenario similar to this.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: That's exactly right.
• 52:03
  Speaker 9: And I follow a group called Tanker Trackers, and what
• 52:06
  Speaker 9: they do, what they've noted for a couple of days now,
• 52:09
  Speaker 9: is that if this should happen, Iran has basically positioned
• 52:11
  Speaker 9: a large kind of floatilla of floating storage just outside
• 52:14
  Speaker 9: the gulf of them On specifically that would allow it
• 52:17
  Speaker 9: to continue servicing these clients at least for some time.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Should the actual straight be blockaded.
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 52:22
  Speaker 9: Obviously, the United States Navy is quite sophisticated, quite large,
• 52:26
  Speaker 9: and quite cable. We saw this during January of this
• 52:29
  Speaker 9: past year or earlier this year. Time flies, But when
• 52:33
  Speaker 9: when they were kind of blockading Venezuelan exports and chasing
• 52:36
  Speaker 9: down Venezuelan and tankers across the Atlantic. Clearly it's a
• 52:40
  Speaker 9: question of the of how intense they're planning on enforcing this.
• 52:44
  Speaker 9: They're able to again, but this question of you know,
• 52:47
  Speaker 9: is this just the latest kind of jaw boning or
• 52:49
  Speaker 9: kind of you know, threat from Trump or are they
• 52:51
  Speaker 9: actually going to follow through this At this stage six
• 52:54
  Speaker 9: weeks of the war, it's very very difficult to kind
• 52:56
  Speaker 9: of handicap that because yeah, it seems like yes, but
• 52:59
  Speaker 9: who knows, you know, we could be an hour away
• 53:01
  Speaker 9: from trumpet, you know, posting that that peace has been
• 53:04
  Speaker 9: found in the add least and oil is going to
• 53:05
  Speaker 9: drop another kind of fifteen bucks a barrel. And this
• 53:08
  Speaker 9: is the challenge we face is no one's actually knows
• 53:10
  Speaker 9: what's going to happen next. All the while thirteen million
• 53:13
  Speaker 9: barrels a day of production been shut it in the
• 53:15
  Speaker 9: Gulf and the world hemorrhages that volume of crude every day,
• 53:18
  Speaker 9: the straight remains closed, and thus far the Strait is
• 53:20
  Speaker 9: not only closed, but now it's even more closed than.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: It was at the beginning of the weekend.
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So that's what I wanted to focus on with you,
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: is you were warning to us a couple weeks ago,
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: if we're in this scenario, the amount of destruction just
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: inevitably in terms, will lead to demand destruction. Now, the Strait,
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: like you said, it's not just closed, it's even more close.
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: If we take some Iranian oil off the offline and
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: there's not any Persian Gulf oil that continues to move through.
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: What you know, let's put the market just gener our aside,
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: because maybe they will catch up to supply supply wise,
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: what are we talking about? Are all the shortage conversations
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: yet fuel et cetera. Is that back on now? Is
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: that still a reality? Like, what's that start going to
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: start to look like it's normally still on it?
• 54:01
  Speaker 9: It never changed, right, I think that's the issue is
• 54:03
  Speaker 9: that right now? So again, just for context, roughly of
• 54:06
  Speaker 9: the twenty million barrels a day of previously kind of
• 54:09
  Speaker 9: previous flow that was traveling through who moves every day
• 54:12
  Speaker 9: roughly seven million barrels of that has been offset by
• 54:15
  Speaker 9: rerooting the Saudi East West pipeline kind of a Ron's
• 54:19
  Speaker 9: flow continuing, et cetera, et cetera. But I means thirteen
• 54:22
  Speaker 9: million barrels can't exit the golf and has been forcibly
• 54:25
  Speaker 9: shut in. That's the barrels that we're losing kind of
• 54:28
  Speaker 9: every single day, and right now at you know, thus
• 54:30
  Speaker 9: far in the crisis, we've lost roughly more than four
• 54:33
  Speaker 9: hundred million barrels, barrels that we're going to produce this
• 54:36
  Speaker 9: year that now just aren't. The longer this goes on,
• 54:39
  Speaker 9: you know, you quickly approach a billion barrels, particularly with
• 54:41
  Speaker 9: the necessary ramp backup.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: So yeah, this is going to continue.
• 54:45
  Speaker 9: You know, the longer this goes on, you're going to
• 54:47
  Speaker 9: need to fill that hole because thirteen million barrels a
• 54:50
  Speaker 9: day now fifteen actually if you block i Ronian flow,
• 54:53
  Speaker 9: because that was one of the off that's previously, so
• 54:55
  Speaker 9: fifteen million barrels a day, there's no.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: Supply source in the world that can fill that.
• 54:59
  Speaker 9: So if the straight remains closed, if this is again
• 55:02
  Speaker 9: a month or two more of what we're talking about,
• 55:04
  Speaker 9: you're going to need to see prices skyrocket in order
• 55:08
  Speaker 9: to forcibly destroy demand. We're already beginning to see shortages
• 55:11
  Speaker 9: across a bunch of different regions of the world. Asian
• 55:14
  Speaker 9: you know, Asian airlines are canceling flights. You've seen talk
• 55:18
  Speaker 9: of rationing jet fuel in southern Italy, the EU broadly,
• 55:22
  Speaker 9: you know, European jet fuel suppliers have basically said that
• 55:26
  Speaker 9: they can't commit to supply jet fuel into May, that
• 55:29
  Speaker 9: probably through through April. This is gonna be good, like like,
• 55:33
  Speaker 9: there's buffer here, this is what the inventories are for.
• 55:35
  Speaker 9: But as we get into May and again into kind
• 55:37
  Speaker 9: of peak travel season June and July, that's when these
• 55:40
  Speaker 9: suppliers can no longer guarantee shipments, which means that airlines
• 55:43
  Speaker 9: that are trying to book flights, you know, or trying
• 55:45
  Speaker 9: to plan flights, are not going to be able to
• 55:47
  Speaker 9: have a bunch of friends that are trying to like
• 55:48
  Speaker 9: plan European vacations and they're like, Rory, will we have
• 55:51
  Speaker 9: jet fuel, whether it be flights to get back, And
• 55:53
  Speaker 9: I'm like, I don't know, Right's And you never would
• 55:56
  Speaker 9: have pictured a moment where I'm like, I don't know
• 55:58
  Speaker 9: if Europe would have jet fuel.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: That's kind of situation we're now in.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: Right Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Well it's nine ten am right now,
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at the oil prices, you know, just above
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: one hundred dollars a barrel, and what's your sense of
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: whether that reflects reality or whether these markets are still
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: somewhat delusional or you know, pricing in Okay, we expect
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: Trump to somehow magically resolve this in the next short period, I.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Would say definitely.
• 56:22
  Speaker 9: I don't know if I was go so far as delusional,
• 56:24
  Speaker 9: but certainly sanguine overly optimistic relative to where I see
• 56:27
  Speaker 9: the situation now. One thing that's kind of been a
• 56:29
  Speaker 9: hallmark of this crisis through throughout, given this kind of
• 56:33
  Speaker 9: chronic expectation, this persistent expectation that this will end any
• 56:37
  Speaker 9: day now and that you know, flow through the straightforms
• 56:39
  Speaker 9: will resume tomorrow, is that most of the kind of
• 56:43
  Speaker 9: pricing pain, the pricing pressure is being felt at the
• 56:45
  Speaker 9: very very front of the curve, in what we call
• 56:47
  Speaker 9: like extreme backgradation or term structure at the front of
• 56:50
  Speaker 9: the curve the shape of the future's curve, and that
• 56:52
  Speaker 9: extends into the physical and spot market. So right now,
• 56:55
  Speaker 9: even though Brent crude right now is trading at you know,
• 56:57
  Speaker 9: over just over one hundred dollars a barrel for June delivery.
• 56:59
  Speaker 9: Futures WTI, which is trading in for May, is actually
• 57:04
  Speaker 9: trading at a premium to that, which is weird at
• 57:06
  Speaker 9: the front of the curve, and dated Brent, which is
• 57:09
  Speaker 9: the spot benchmark, is trading you know, north of one
• 57:11
  Speaker 9: hundred and thirty. And then the physical delivery of these
• 57:14
  Speaker 9: various actual crude cargoes is something at twenty twenty five
• 57:18
  Speaker 9: dollars at a premium to dated Brent. So you're many
• 57:20
  Speaker 9: of these physical cruds are trading at over one hundred
• 57:22
  Speaker 9: and fifty dollars delivered. Wow, And that's the kind of
• 57:25
  Speaker 9: thing that eventually futures need to recognize that. But thus far,
• 57:29
  Speaker 9: you know, the way has been very successful in kind
• 57:31
  Speaker 9: of manage actations that this conflict is going to end
• 57:33
  Speaker 9: any moment, and who's the blame. Traders that you know
• 57:36
  Speaker 9: can't get too long because then they're going to get
• 57:37
  Speaker 9: blown out their positions with a fifteen dollars a barrel,
• 57:40
  Speaker 9: you know, Tweet, it's a very strange market to trade.
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: Rory, can you just transfer some of that into gas prices.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: What is that?
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: So let's say if it if if we caught up,
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: what did you say, one hundred and fifty a barrel?
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: What does that look like at the pump nationally for
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: the US.
• 57:55
  Speaker 9: Well, what's interesting actually is that physically, you know, while
• 57:59
  Speaker 9: you know, US consumers are basically going to be paying
• 58:01
  Speaker 9: spot prices for gasing, so they actually will be paying
• 58:04
  Speaker 9: these prices rather than June delivery. Right, we all consume
• 58:07
  Speaker 9: in physical spot markets, even though the futures price is trying.
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: To continue to handing gap this forward.
• 58:13
  Speaker 9: So yeah, you're going to see national average prices at
• 58:15
  Speaker 9: this pace easily outstripped five dollars a gallon en route
• 58:19
  Speaker 9: to six dollars a gallon should this continue by June
• 58:22
  Speaker 9: easily And I think that's just gasoline. Diesel at this
• 58:25
  Speaker 9: stage is trading at a decent premium to that. So
• 58:27
  Speaker 9: you're going to see all time You've already seen kind
• 58:29
  Speaker 9: of all time highs reached in California, You're going to
• 58:31
  Speaker 9: see that across the entire continent to the United States.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, where this morning it looks like four dollars and
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: thirteen cents is the national average per triple.
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: A And I wanted to talk to you.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Obviously focus on oil, but I'm sure you've thought quite
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: a lot about the way this ripols around the economy.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: Let's put C five up on the screen. This with
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: some reporting from the Wall Street Journal about the warnings
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: that the Trump White House is fielding about the Iran
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: Wars economic hit, some of these warnings coming from oil executives,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: and we could put C six up on this.
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: Screen as well.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: We had a relatively hot inflation report last Friday. US
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: inflation tripled last month based on record spike in gas prices. Obviously,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: you know it's not just at the pump where we
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: feel the increase of these prices. This flows thround the
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: entire economy. So talk to us a little bit about
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: what you expect there.
• 59:21
  Speaker 9: Yeah, so consumers are going to feel this primarily through
• 59:24
  Speaker 9: gasoline pump prices, but the kind of stealthier way that
• 59:26
  Speaker 9: this is going to, you know, continue to juice inflation
• 59:30
  Speaker 9: is through diesel, is through jet fuel, is through these
• 59:32
  Speaker 9: fuels that kind of you know, these middle distillates get
• 59:35
  Speaker 9: diesel and gasoline in particular are effectively the fuels that
• 59:39
  Speaker 9: that that that drive the industrial economy. These are the
• 59:42
  Speaker 9: these are the prices that unless you have like a
• 59:43
  Speaker 9: diesel HEMI truck, you might not be paying for diesel
• 59:46
  Speaker 9: at the pump, but you're going to be start paying
• 59:48
  Speaker 9: you know, surch charges on Amazon deliveries. You started to
• 59:51
  Speaker 9: see flights, they're started charging search charges on you.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: Know, long haul flights.
• 59:55
  Speaker 9: All of these things are going to begin to be
• 59:57
  Speaker 9: incorporated because otherwise, you know, corporate margins are going to
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 9: get obliterated. And I think the longer this goes on,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 9: the more this is going to go from special surch
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 9: charges to just new high prices. And that's the thing
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 9: we saw through twenty twenty two is the longer this
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 9: goes on, that's when those inflationary expectations begin to mount,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 9: and that's when you begin to see companies have more
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 9: of this kind of space and kind of flexibility to
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 9: write to raise prices, even if they would have hesitated historically.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 9: That also, I think bears on central banks and the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 9: fact that many central banks would have been wanting to
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 9: be cutting interest rates during this period to kind of
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 9: support the economy, which looks like it could be flagging
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 9: in a couple different areas that I think is also
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 9: now going to be on hold, given the very recent
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 9: experience in twenty twenty two of you know, runaway inflation
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 9: and how unpopular that was for consumers. All of this,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 9: of course, is just deeply, deeply bizarre and ironic coming
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 9: from an administration that was that was brought into the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 9: White House to end, you know, forever wars in the
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 9: Middle East and increase and kind of better the cost
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 9: of living for America and consumers.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: And so far we're going in the polar op with
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: a direction. Last question for you, Rory. Our next segment
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: is going to be about Asia. There's been significant unrest
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: in these Asian countries over their reliance here on Raadian oil.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: The Korean president is openly feuding with the nation of Israel.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: He's obviously very upset.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: Fifty thousand Japanese people actually took to the streets a
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: couple of days ago to protest the Iran war. This
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: doesn't really happen all that often. So can you break
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: down you know, we touch talked to her about the
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: US economies. The situation seems way more dire for them,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: where the vast majority of their oil comes through the
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: Strait you know, what shortages and other prices. Can we
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: see in the Asian economies in the coming months.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 9: So everything that I was talking about for North America
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 9: or europe jet fuel is kind of doubled or tripled
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 9: for Asia. Okay, the vast majority of oil from the
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 9: straightform moves goes to Asia, while not as much of
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 9: let's say, the direct diesel and jet fuel that goes
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 9: to the European continent the vast majority of the crude oil.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 9: So you've seen European or sorry, Asian refineries pulled back
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 9: their operations considerably, and you saw you saw Asian or
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 9: Singaporean jet fuel jump above two hundred dollars a barrel
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 9: equivalent in the first week of this war, and.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: That has continued to mount higher.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 9: You've seen these steepest service cuts to airlines, everything that's
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 9: going to be coming across Asia. And you've also seen
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 9: Asian economies, you know, coming out of the very recent
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 9: experience of COVID, also being far heavier handed than kind
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 9: of Western counterparts on forcible reductions in kind of policies
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 9: meant to reduce mobility. So you've seen governments talking from
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 9: work from home, you've talked you know, you've already heard
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 9: people talking about like you know, the odd even license
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 9: plate days of who can drive into cities.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: And I think for a lot of these.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 9: Economies you also see heavy government subsidies or kind of
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 9: support in these prices, which if this, if that level
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 9: of support persists through a price shock, shifts this from
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 9: a consumer shock to a fiscal shock, which which kind
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 9: of has all of these kind of government bankruptcy concerns
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 9: that begin to mount. So at the same time, these
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 9: consumers are used to very stable prices, and if this continues,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 9: you're going to need to see governments rapidly and kind
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 9: of abruptly pull back support so that that price shock
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 9: is going to be doubly painful for those consumers that
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 9: are used to prices that that really don't move around
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 9: nearly as much as we see them at the pump.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: Very true.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Thank you for oh sorry, go ahead, Oh.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: I was just going to say thank you, Thank you
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: very nice. I always appreciate your analysis and it's always
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: great to see you.