Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Survivor Pool | 9/09/25 | Week 1 Recap & Strategy Review
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: Hey, what's going on everyone? This is sheets and it
- 0:08Speaker 1: looks as though I did not successfully launch the intro video,
- 0:16Speaker 1: so I apologize to ship a nation guys for those
- 0:22Speaker 1: who created that. I always look forward to getting pumped
- 0:26Speaker 1: up from that intro, but for whatever reason, I have failed.
- 0:31Speaker 1: So hopefully that doesn't break the mojo up and we
- 0:37Speaker 1: could just get right into this. So again, this is
- 0:40Speaker 1: going to be hopefully every Tuesday, it's going to be
- 0:44Speaker 1: sort of a recap of what occurred over the weekend
- 0:48Speaker 1: in Survivor and other pools, and I believe this is
- 0:53Speaker 1: going to be free and what it is is again
- 0:58Speaker 1: we're not going to get into a lot of this
- 1:00Speaker 1: for next week yet. That's gonna be reserved for for
- 1:03Speaker 1: the Wednesday show. And the Wednesday show this week is
- 1:05Speaker 1: gonna be Thursday because I'm traveling tomorrow, but no big deal.
- 1:09Speaker 2: And a couple of notes.
- 1:11Speaker 1: The tool is already updated with respect to the future
- 1:17Speaker 1: future lines of these teams, but it is not yet
- 1:21Speaker 1: refreshed with the with the evs and ownerships for this
- 1:27Speaker 1: week because they're just it's just too early. Usually those
- 1:30Speaker 1: things refresh overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, which gives me a
- 1:35Speaker 1: chance to absorb and theorize and talk about the stuff
- 1:39Speaker 1: Wednesday evening. But this week it's not gonna be till
- 1:42Speaker 1: Thursday afternoon. It will be in time to consider though
- 1:45Speaker 1: the Thursday night game, which spoiler alerd is probably not
- 1:49Speaker 1: going to be survive irrelevant, but we'll get to that
- 1:54Speaker 1: some other time, So feel free to ask what questions
- 2:00Speaker 1: you have in here. What we're looking at right here
- 2:05Speaker 1: is the splash ship at Nation Survivor tournament, and I'm
- 2:10Speaker 1: just using this kind of as an example of what
- 2:13Speaker 1: happened last week. And then the other thing I want
- 2:15Speaker 1: to show you this is the tool that's within ship
- 2:17Speaker 1: a Nation as well. We'll go back and forth between
- 2:21Speaker 1: these two things. And again for those they're watching this
- 2:23Speaker 1: for the first time, and this is a unique sweet
- 2:26Speaker 1: spot in the betting world of the ability to profit
- 2:31Speaker 1: in a market which is really exploded and yet people
- 2:35Speaker 1: have no idea what they're doing.
- 2:37Speaker 2: So we're really sending it in this.
- 2:40Speaker 1: Year and probably the next two or three years with
- 2:42Speaker 1: respect to firing entries and all this stuff. And you know,
- 2:46Speaker 1: if you stay with us throughout the whole season, whether
- 2:49Speaker 1: you join now two weeks and now three weeks now,
- 2:51Speaker 1: whatever you're going to learn a skill really that is
- 2:55Speaker 1: going to be good for at least three years. Okay,
- 3:01Speaker 1: this is paywall, by the way, starting tomorrow, I believe.
- 3:06Speaker 1: But the Tuesday ones are always going to be free
- 3:09Speaker 1: because we're going over the previous week and things like that,
- 3:11Speaker 1: and listen, you know how it goes with content. You know,
- 3:13Speaker 1: we got to show you guys how smart we are,
- 3:16Speaker 1: you know, and how dumb we are, and how in
- 3:19Speaker 1: victory lap and all that stuff, you know, to to
- 3:23Speaker 1: you know, encourage the people that have not joined yet
- 3:26Speaker 1: to join. That's just kind of the way it is.
- 3:29Speaker 1: But we want to do something at least intelligent about
- 3:32Speaker 1: this as well. So let's go over the teams. And
- 3:37Speaker 1: when we go over the teams from last week, we're
- 3:38Speaker 1: going to go over them kind of in context of
- 3:41Speaker 1: the way I explained them. And I have a couple
- 3:44Speaker 1: of comments. First of all, with respect to Eagles. So
- 3:48Speaker 1: the Eagles, by the way, and we're gonna say this
- 3:50Speaker 1: quite a bit. I mean, the Eagles were a player
- 3:52Speaker 1: away from from from busting as.
- 3:55Speaker 2: A huge favorite.
- 3:57Speaker 1: They were twelve fourteen percent owned in some pools, ten
- 4:00Speaker 1: percent in other pools, and comments in last week that
- 4:05Speaker 1: I thought that was completely that you were not you were,
- 4:07Speaker 1: but it was really paying the rake playing the Eagles
- 4:10Speaker 1: this week really, regardless of what pool you were in,
- 4:15Speaker 1: it was a very very small, single entry pool. Maybe
- 4:19Speaker 1: I could squint that maybe your only break even doing that,
- 4:22Speaker 1: But most pools that everybody here is playing the Eagles
- 4:25Speaker 1: were just they just had way too much future value
- 4:29Speaker 1: to play. This past week. There was a unique dynamic
- 4:33Speaker 1: in the Circle pool, by the way, or any pool
- 4:35Speaker 1: where you're allowed to rebuy if you lost before the
- 4:38Speaker 1: end of the first week, where some people sent in
- 4:40Speaker 1: in on the Eagles early with the idea that if
- 4:43Speaker 1: they didn't win, they could just buy back later. And
- 4:47Speaker 1: it was it was a weird little situation because so
- 4:50Speaker 1: people played like all these Eagles and they won, and
- 4:56Speaker 1: I guess, yay, you know what I mean, Like, is
- 4:59Speaker 1: that good? I mean, if you told me that you
- 5:03Speaker 1: were going to place a ten Eagles in circa, which
- 5:05Speaker 1: was a terrible play, but with the idea that you know,
- 5:10Speaker 1: if you busted you just you know you wouldn't you know,
- 5:12Speaker 1: you'd rebuy if I told.
- 5:14Speaker 2: You they were all going to advance?
- 5:17Speaker 1: Would would you when you've wanted them? It obviously depending
- 5:21Speaker 1: on what else happened to the rest of the pool.
- 5:22Speaker 1: But uh, the Eagles, for all the reasons we discussed
- 5:25Speaker 1: this past week, we were really really a poor play.
- 5:29Speaker 1: And as you'll as we'll get into it later in
- 5:33Speaker 1: the season. I mean, you guys are all learned why
- 5:34Speaker 1: these are bad players, all right, May one pretty much
- 5:38Speaker 1: everybody won this week, but we'll get to it.
- 5:39Speaker 2: All all wins are kind of not created equal, right.
- 5:41Speaker 3: So so then then we talked about the the the Broncos,
- 5:46Speaker 3: and the Broncos were a very very interesting dichotomy because
- 5:51Speaker 3: I did say that in single pick pools they were
- 5:53Speaker 3: pretty reasonable, but once you got into double.
- 5:56Speaker 1: Pick pools, there's something you really wanted to fade just
- 5:59Speaker 1: because it again, in those types of pools, you really
- 6:01Speaker 1: want to stockpile those teams in eleven through fifteen. So
- 6:11Speaker 1: so that's why I thought the Broncos were kind of
- 6:13Speaker 1: a we're definitely a feinte in the double pick pools,
- 6:16Speaker 1: and let the record reflect that they were one They
- 6:20Speaker 1: were one play pretty much not one play, but they
- 6:23Speaker 1: were a possession away from losing also, and that would
- 6:25Speaker 1: have been kind of fun. The first kind of chalky
- 6:29Speaker 1: play that I really liked were the Cardinals. And the
- 6:32Speaker 1: Cardinals they ended up a little higher on than I
- 6:34Speaker 1: thought they were going to be, but yet still twenty
- 6:37Speaker 1: percent owned for them as was pretty reasonable because it
- 6:39Speaker 1: had a good combination of have pretty really good win odds,
- 6:42Speaker 1: and they were not to be that used in the future.
- 6:46Speaker 2: Now again, they're going to be used in the future
- 6:48Speaker 2: in the next couple.
- 6:49Speaker 1: Of weeks maybe, but as you get into those double
- 6:51Speaker 1: pick weeks, which was really important, you really weren't gonna
- 6:54Speaker 1: need them. So I thought the Cardinals were a very
- 6:58Speaker 1: very solid play across all formats, and and they.
- 7:01Speaker 2: Were one play away from losing.
- 7:03Speaker 1: You know, they they the Saints actually dropped a touchdown
- 7:07Speaker 1: pass when they were down seven and with like five
- 7:10Speaker 1: seconds ago or something, and who knows what happens if
- 7:14Speaker 1: the guy catches that ball.
- 7:15Speaker 2: I tell you this that if they lined up.
- 7:18Speaker 1: To go for two, I mean, Cardinal ruters would not
- 7:20Speaker 1: would not have been happy. So that barely survived. But
- 7:26Speaker 1: that was our you know, that was our very nice
- 7:28Speaker 1: conservative play. That that that that worked out. Commanders I
- 7:34Speaker 1: thought were pretty weak play. They add a little too
- 7:37Speaker 1: much value in the future, and they won handily.
- 7:42Speaker 2: I didn't. I don't think I played a single share of.
- 7:44Speaker 1: Washington across like exillions of lineups pretty much the the
- 7:50Speaker 1: team that we talked about that I thought, And it's
- 7:53Speaker 1: so funny.
- 7:54Speaker 2: I'd looked to see if I could just SoundBite it.
- 7:56Speaker 2: It's in there somewhere.
- 7:58Speaker 1: I mean, I was very very clear that the best
- 8:00Speaker 1: play on the board last week, in all formats, especially doubles,
- 8:03Speaker 1: was was was in Jaguars.
- 8:05Speaker 2: It was It was a.
- 8:05Speaker 1: Very very classic, easy, like top play if you've been doing.
- 8:11Speaker 2: This for a long time.
- 8:12Speaker 1: Okay, the idea of not really worrying about their win
- 8:18Speaker 1: odds today and not really worrying about their sort of
- 8:21Speaker 1: low EV today was really really important to understand why
- 8:29Speaker 1: the Jaguars were such a strong play.
- 8:31Speaker 2: They are, they were negative EV for the week.
- 8:34Speaker 1: But what you were buying, as I kind of went
- 8:37Speaker 1: over last week, you were buying all the red like,
- 8:40Speaker 1: for example, like this is the map, and you see
- 8:43Speaker 1: like this is all the red in the future, like
- 8:46Speaker 1: you're you're almost never going to use them like until
- 8:49Speaker 1: maybe very very deep in the future. So if you
- 8:52Speaker 1: were able to get away with that, that was extremely strong. Uh,
- 8:58Speaker 1: and let the record reflect that of all the teams
- 9:01Speaker 1: I mentioned so far, the Jaguars were the ones that
- 9:03Speaker 1: had the least sweat of them all. They they were
- 9:06Speaker 1: they were of double digits like pretty much the whole
- 9:09Speaker 1: time and never was were never.
- 9:11Speaker 2: Headed, so to speak. So that was really strong.
- 9:15Speaker 1: And if you guys, you know, took my advice and
- 9:17Speaker 1: took our advice and played the Jaguars with with size
- 9:20Speaker 1: and and with with confidence, you put yourself in a
- 9:23Speaker 1: really good position going forward. And we're gonna talk about
- 9:27Speaker 1: that in a minute or two. Bengals were the other.
- 9:31Speaker 1: The third play I liked the most. So I did
- 9:34Speaker 1: like the Jaguars the most, and the Cardinals and the Bengals. Again,
- 9:37Speaker 1: I thought the Bengals would have had a very very
- 9:39Speaker 1: reasonable ev they were. They were low owned, which made
- 9:42Speaker 1: their ev strong, and I thought their their future value
- 9:46Speaker 1: was regulatively low. So I thought they were pretty They
- 9:49Speaker 1: were pretty good play and they won by one possession,
- 9:51Speaker 1: like barely. Okay, Now, if you were playing multiple entries
- 9:57Speaker 1: and you're playing these double pick pools with a lot
- 9:59Speaker 1: of variants, the future, because of all the money that
- 10:02Speaker 1: was going to be putting these things on the entries,
- 10:04Speaker 1: the real, the real, who do Okay. Was were the
- 10:10Speaker 1: were the Steelers and the Colts. Okay, these are the
- 10:13Speaker 1: two that we talked about as being just super high variant,
- 10:17Speaker 1: you know, maybe pick them type games, but then if
- 10:19Speaker 1: you got away with it, you would really thank me later.
- 10:23Speaker 1: And the Steelers obviously that was a huge struggle, but
- 10:25Speaker 1: they got there. But the Colts, they were the easiest
- 10:29Speaker 1: winner of them all and the whole card and they
- 10:33Speaker 1: were no percent owned pretty much, and that that was
- 10:39Speaker 1: really really big. Like if you if you were an
- 10:42Speaker 1: aggressive player and and and took advantage of what we
- 10:44Speaker 1: were talking about and played the.
- 10:46Speaker 2: Colts, I mean that was really really strong. Okay.
- 10:50Speaker 1: I was even talking about like some underdoors like the
- 10:52Speaker 1: Raiders I thought were worth were worth a stab. They
- 10:55Speaker 1: were like zero percent on they came through the rams
- 10:58Speaker 1: even you know a lot of these low owned plays
- 11:00Speaker 1: that were looked quote unquote risky. Okay, if you got
- 11:04Speaker 1: away with it in these big double pick pools would
- 11:07Speaker 1: have like a billion.
- 11:08Speaker 2: People in it.
- 11:10Speaker 1: You're really really healthy as far as your entries go.
- 11:15Speaker 1: Which leads me to this point. Okay, So so in general,
- 11:19Speaker 1: you know, most everybody advanced. That's the way it happens,
- 11:22Speaker 1: you know, nine percent of the pool advanced. But all
- 11:27Speaker 1: all entries and all advancers are not created equal. And
- 11:32Speaker 1: this is why I feel as though I don't know
- 11:35Speaker 1: how many of you guys are DFS players that are
- 11:37Speaker 1: that are watching, I imagine a lot, so like DFS
- 11:40Speaker 1: players can really understand this idea better than just kind
- 11:45Speaker 1: of straight football fans, you know, the idea of what
- 11:50Speaker 1: what winning and what advancing with a low owned team
- 11:55Speaker 1: can do for you, you know, and and to be able
- 11:58Speaker 1: to even though you can't exactly quantify it, to kind
- 12:01Speaker 1: of feel the impact of getting away with a team
- 12:05Speaker 1: like the Jaguars, you know, and pushing all these Eagles
- 12:07Speaker 1: and Broncos, you know, all these great teams like back
- 12:11Speaker 1: into the future, Like you might never actually realize any
- 12:16Speaker 1: of this ev and that's just kind of the way
- 12:18Speaker 1: it goes, okay. But the key to to playing pools
- 12:23Speaker 1: like this is very similar to DFS in a way.
- 12:25Speaker 1: You know, you have to not think about well, let's
- 12:29Speaker 1: talk about UFC for example, Like, like there's a lot
- 12:31Speaker 1: of people that follow here, there are also UFC players
- 12:33Speaker 1: for DFS, and it's very similar. You don't think of
- 12:37Speaker 1: of really the chances of a fire winning although that's important.
- 12:42Speaker 1: You think of what happens if he does win, you
- 12:45Speaker 1: know what I mean, Like you think about, Okay, if
- 12:47Speaker 1: this guy wins, how is that win going to affect
- 12:50Speaker 1: my lineup and my portfolio of lineups as opposed to
- 12:55Speaker 1: having a Chalky player or who you know, Chalky fire
- 12:58Speaker 1: you know is gonna win win. And that's kind of
- 13:01Speaker 1: the way that you that you think about this type
- 13:06Speaker 1: of pool.
- 13:07Speaker 2: So I'm going I'm gonna know how to do this.
- 13:10Speaker 2: Let me see.
- 13:10Speaker 1: Uh yeah, So I'm gonna show this comment by Adam,
- 13:13Speaker 1: who's been a very you know, very vocal in the
- 13:15Speaker 1: in the in the discord, and see, this is the
- 13:19Speaker 1: type of portfolio that that that that that can win pools. Okay,
- 13:25Speaker 1: it's it's listen. What were the chances that all four
- 13:27Speaker 1: teams win? Not not not great? Okay, you're gonna average
- 13:30Speaker 1: winning like like two point eight of the four. If
- 13:33Speaker 1: you ran good, you'd get three, you know what I mean,
- 13:35Speaker 1: If you ran poorly you'd get to which would have
- 13:37Speaker 1: been okay, And if you ran hot, you'd get four
- 13:39Speaker 1: and we got four.
- 13:40Speaker 2: Right.
- 13:41Speaker 1: So so because of that, because you were willing to
- 13:45Speaker 1: to take that risk, you know, you you're listen, it's
- 13:47Speaker 1: only week one, right, but you put yourself in a
- 13:51Speaker 1: really really strong position going forward, Okay, and that and
- 13:55Speaker 1: that's that's the way you really have to start thinking
- 13:58Speaker 1: about this type of things. And it applies to all pools.
- 14:03Speaker 1: I mean, I didn't want to talk about this too much,
- 14:04Speaker 1: but I wrote I did a video on the circum
- 14:06Speaker 1: Millions pool where you pick against the spread. I just
- 14:09Speaker 1: kind of dropped in the discord and I said, it's
- 14:12Speaker 1: basically the same thing. The people that really just try
- 14:15Speaker 1: to pick winners against the spread or just doing it wrong,
- 14:18Speaker 1: and you just had to try to find teams that
- 14:19Speaker 1: nobody was picking. And in that video I talked about
- 14:21Speaker 1: how the Titans were the best play on the board,
- 14:24Speaker 1: not because I thought they were going to cover. I
- 14:25Speaker 1: thought there were fifty to fifty like every other you know,
- 14:27Speaker 1: damn teams against the spread in the NFL, but I
- 14:30Speaker 1: figured no one else would pick them, and they ended
- 14:32Speaker 1: up being six percent on I mean, are you kidding me?
- 14:34Speaker 1: I mean that that is like pure money printed. It's
- 14:37Speaker 1: a little less quantifiable really in Survivor. But trust me,
- 14:43Speaker 1: you get away with those teams to say that Adam
- 14:45Speaker 1: picked you are so far ahead, okay of Bronco, of
- 14:50Speaker 1: Eagle Advancers, of Bronco Advancers, et cetera. Okay, so that's
- 14:55Speaker 1: the way you really have to think about this. It
- 14:58Speaker 1: reminds me sort of of a scene from Moneyball where, uh,
- 15:05Speaker 1: I forget who was whoever was playing. The David Justice
- 15:07Speaker 1: character was saying, you know, I noticed that you're you're
- 15:10Speaker 1: charging us for soda in the soda machine.
- 15:13Speaker 2: I've never seen anything like.
- 15:14Speaker 1: That, and and uh, the Jonah Hill character responded like, yeah,
- 15:18Speaker 1: we know. Ability likes to keep you know, all the
- 15:21Speaker 1: money on the field. And Justice says, where where on
- 15:25Speaker 1: the field is my soda? And he says, it's it's
- 15:29Speaker 1: hard to see, but but it's out there.
- 15:32Speaker 2: It's it's sort of similar.
- 15:33Speaker 1: You know, although you can actually quantify, if you really
- 15:37Speaker 1: had a computer and send this, you could quantify how
- 15:39Speaker 1: strong these entries are. There have been some some sites
- 15:43Speaker 1: that have tried to do it. It's it's really really
- 15:45Speaker 1: guessing at this point. But but but you have to
- 15:48Speaker 1: trust me that this is the way you're supposed to play.
- 15:50Speaker 1: And we were. We did great. I mean I can't
- 15:54Speaker 1: I couldn't have Okay, I couldn't have asked for a
- 15:56Speaker 1: better result. Sure, it would have been nice if the
- 15:58Speaker 1: Eagle's lost. It would have been nice if the Broncos lost. Great, Okay, fine,
- 16:03Speaker 1: but we can't worry about that. The fact is is
- 16:05Speaker 1: that we are off to a tremendous start with respect
- 16:10Speaker 1: to what we're going to be doing in the future.
- 16:15Speaker 1: The other thing I wanted to mention is again this map.
- 16:19Speaker 1: This did update and again it's so funny, like how
- 16:24Speaker 1: so much of this is is kind of visual. We'll
- 16:28Speaker 1: talk about this on on on Thursday. But when I
- 16:32Speaker 1: was having Evan Evan is Evan created this for me,
- 16:36Speaker 1: and there are other there are other grids like it.
- 16:39Speaker 1: But what I love about this is that it has
- 16:42Speaker 1: these color enhancements. And I know it doesn't seem like
- 16:46Speaker 1: a big deal, but but to be visual about this,
- 16:49Speaker 1: to see like all these teams with all this red,
- 16:52Speaker 1: you know, which means that they're just just underdog and
- 16:55Speaker 1: just not playable, you know what I mean? Uh, it
- 16:59Speaker 1: might help you have the confidence in in picking some
- 17:04Speaker 1: of them early when they are a little bit green.
- 17:06Speaker 2: Okay, Now, again that's not the whole.
- 17:09Speaker 1: Story, but I do like this view of the grid
- 17:12Speaker 1: better than the ones that I've been the ones that
- 17:15Speaker 1: I've been used to.
- 17:20Speaker 2: What else?
- 17:22Speaker 1: Okay, so we talked about double pickpools with single pick pools.
- 17:27Speaker 1: I'll show you, like this was the ship in Nation,
- 17:30Speaker 1: you know, this big multi multi entry pool whatever. This
- 17:35Speaker 1: was the the five K, which was single entry. So
- 17:40Speaker 1: like in this one, for example, this one at thirty
- 17:42Speaker 1: five percent Broncos, I thought that was okay. Uh, this one,
- 17:45Speaker 1: I guess twenty two percent Eagles. I guess that's not
- 17:48Speaker 1: the worst play in the world, but I still think
- 17:51Speaker 1: that it's bad, like even in single entries, like this
- 17:54Speaker 1: isn't like a tiny pool. This is one hundred and
- 17:56Speaker 1: ninety one entries, or actually it was two hundred at
- 17:59Speaker 1: the time. And there are a couple of people that
- 18:01Speaker 1: busted this thing. There were two that took again on
- 18:04Speaker 1: the Patriots. Three that pretty much paid the rake with
- 18:07Speaker 1: the Bears. Actually, you know what I bet you all
- 18:10Speaker 1: that happened for your Bears pick is that the person
- 18:13Speaker 1: just didn't get in until late or maybe they rebought,
- 18:16Speaker 1: maybe they lost, maybe rebought if that were the rules
- 18:20Speaker 1: of this pool, and then played the Bears something like that.
- 18:23Speaker 1: So that's probably why they ended up there. I guess
- 18:29Speaker 1: That's pretty much all I wanted to talk about as
- 18:32Speaker 1: far as this recap. So again, like, if you want
- 18:36Speaker 1: to get in on, you know what to do in
- 18:39Speaker 1: the following weeks. I mean, I'm just gonna have to
- 18:41Speaker 1: encourage you to subscribe if you haven't already, or just
- 18:45Speaker 1: to make sure you tune in for the main show,
- 18:49Speaker 1: which is usually Wednesdays, but it's going to be Thursday
- 18:54Speaker 1: at four o'clock.
- 18:56Speaker 2: So also make sure.
- 18:57Speaker 1: That you're in that discord channel so you know, you
- 19:01Speaker 1: could bounce some ideas off me or whatever. One thing
- 19:03Speaker 1: I will promise you, I will tell you who I like,
- 19:06Speaker 1: you know, but the remember is that all pools are different.
- 19:09Speaker 2: Your pools are different. I'll have no idea who you took.
- 19:12Speaker 2: You know what I mean.
- 19:14Speaker 1: But I'm always very honest and I will be very
- 19:17Speaker 1: direct with you as long as you realize that. You know,
- 19:20Speaker 1: obviously you realize this. That the team loses, it's not
- 19:23Speaker 1: my fault. And whenever I say I like a team,
- 19:26Speaker 1: it doesn't mean I like them to win. I just
- 19:28Speaker 1: mean I like them in Survivor and that's a totally different,
- 19:31Speaker 1: different scene. Okay, I guess that's pretty much all I
- 19:34Speaker 1: have for you guys, good luck and hope to see
- 19:37Speaker 1: you at the hope to see you on the show Thursday,