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What Midterm Money Movement Predicts About Upcoming Election Results · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  3 weeks until the midterms and it's time to follow the money.
• 0:04
  Republicans have a bit of a money problem right now.
• 0:06
  GOP groups are pulling support from incumbents,
• 0:08
  but
• 0:09
  Elon Musk is here.
• 0:11
  He's trying to make up the difference.
• 0:12
  There's a huge story to be
• 0:13
  told about that.
• 0:14
  In Texas,
• 0:15
  James Tallarico is causing a bit of a freak out,
• 0:18
  as you,
• 0:18
  as you may have heard.
• 0:19
  We will check the market before anybody starts throwing furniture.
• 0:22
  And then,
• 0:22
  uh,
• 0:23
  a movie about a man.
• 0:25
  Getting eaten by a whale.
• 0:27
  We'll tell you why that's important to your prediction market portfolio.
• 0:31
  All that and more coming up on Predictable with Stu.
• 0:49
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:51
  PredictableShow.com is the place to go to
• 0:54
  get all your prediction market information.
• 0:55
  We have 21 days
• 0:58
  until the midterm elections.
• 0:59
  Early voting
• 1:00
  already going on in 16
• 1:03
  states in our union.
• 1:05
  Uh,
• 1:05
  today,
• 1:06
  you can vote in Georgia
• 1:08
  and Idaho.
• 1:10
  Tomorrow,
• 1:10
  Iowa,
• 1:11
  Kansas,
• 1:12
  Rhode Island,
• 1:13
  and Tennessee.
• 1:14
  Uh,
• 1:15
  October 15th is North Carolina,
• 1:16
  and then the next day,
• 1:17
  October 16th is in Washington.
• 1:19
  I,
• 1:19
  I,
• 1:19
  I bring that up mainly to,
• 1:21
  I keep
• 1:21
  hitting those numbers because number one,
• 1:23
  I could,
• 1:23
  election day,
• 1:24
  yes,
• 1:24
  is three weeks away.
• 1:26
  However,
• 1:27
  The election's already going on in a lot of the country and more to come soon.
• 1:31
  The other thing is,
• 1:32
  if your,
• 1:32
  if your thought process is,
• 1:34
  well,
• 1:35
  uh,
• 1:36
  Republicans or Democrats will do something to move this race in a major way,
• 1:40
  gonna be tough to do.
• 1:41
  I mean,
• 1:41
  there's already
• 1:42
  a bunch of people voting.
• 1:43
  Uh,
• 1:43
  early voting numbers are coming out as well.
• 1:45
  We're gonna get into that data a little bit more as it develops.
• 1:48
  I like to wait a little bit.
• 1:50
  A lot of times
• 1:51
  you get kinda,
• 1:52
  I don't know,
• 1:52
  uh,
• 1:53
  misleading information very early in that process,
• 1:55
  but it can help you
• 1:56
  fill in some of the gaps as we get a little bit later on.
• 1:59
  Couple of other things I wanted to tell you about before we get into today's,
• 2:01
  uh,
• 2:02
  situation because
• 2:03
  obviously you have debates going on.
• 2:04
  Debates are one of the big things that can move markets
• 2:07
  in situations like this.
• 2:09
  We have another one in Iowa tonight,
• 2:10
  Ashley Hinson against Josh Turrick,
• 2:12
  a race I'm watching very,
• 2:13
  very closely,
• 2:14
  uh,
• 2:15
  as I have a large position,
• 2:16
  uh,
• 2:16
  in that race on Ashley Hinson.
• 2:19
  It's,
• 2:19
  it's gonna be close.
• 2:20
  It's gonna be close there.
• 2:21
  Um,
• 2:21
  Thursday,
• 2:22
  you have another main debate with Susan Collins and Troy Jackson.
• 2:25
  Friday,
• 2:25
  a big one actually in Minnesota,
• 2:27
  Michelle Tafoya
• 2:28
  going up against Peggy Flanagan for that Senate seat.
• 2:31
  And we are only,
• 2:33
  what is it,
• 2:33
  Tuesday today?
• 2:34
  Less than a week from,
• 2:35
  yes,
• 2:36
  you guessed it,
• 2:37
  panic day.
• 2:38
  People kept saying,
• 2:39
  hey,
• 2:40
  should I panic yet?
• 2:41
  No,
• 2:42
  don't panic until Monday,
• 2:43
  October 19th,
• 2:44
  the day I've completely randomly,
• 2:46
  uh,
• 2:47
  put in as panic day.
• 2:48
  And that is now less than a week away.
• 2:50
  So,
• 2:50
  what's gonna happen on panic day?
• 2:51
  Well,
• 2:52
  I'm gonna be looking at my positions closely to see if I need to resize them.
• 2:54
  Do I need to back out of anything?
• 2:55
  Do I need to invest in other areas?
• 2:57
  I'm trying to be as patient as possible.
• 2:59
  That'll still give us a couple of weeks before the election.
• 3:01
  OK,
• 3:01
  I wanna talk about Texas a little bit cause I've,
• 3:03
  I've had a couple of conversations with people
• 3:05
  here in Texas and,
• 3:06
  and,
• 3:06
  and a couple of places across the country,
• 3:08
  people who have positions
• 3:10
  in pro-Republican,
• 3:11
  uh,
• 3:12
  places
• 3:13
  in Texas.
• 3:14
  James Tallarico going up against Ken Paxton,
• 3:16
  also secondarily,
• 3:17
  but also a very important market.
• 3:19
  Uh,
• 3:19
  Greg Abbott,
• 3:20
  the governor of the state,
• 3:21
  going up against Gina,
• 3:22
  Gina,
• 3:23
  Joza.
• 3:24
  Very fun name to say,
• 3:25
  very bad governor if she wins.
• 3:27
  Uh,
• 3:27
  she is competitive in this race as well,
• 3:30
  although Abbott,
• 3:30
  I think,
• 3:30
  has a lead.
• 3:32
  Uh,
• 3:32
  Tallarico,
• 3:33
  now saying he was at home in Texas during his campaign trail absence,
• 3:36
  uh,
• 3:37
  appears to show this to be true in,
• 3:39
  uh,
• 3:40
  photos,
• 3:41
  at least that's what they're,
• 3:42
  uh,
• 3:42
  saying.
• 3:43
  We,
• 3:43
  I don't think we've actually seen the photos,
• 3:45
  but.
• 3:46
  Uh,
• 3:47
  we should,
• 3:47
  of course,
• 3:48
  trust the New York Times and CBS implicitly.
• 3:50
  No,
• 3:50
  I mean,
• 3:50
  I,
• 3:51
  if you look at the,
• 3:51
  the,
• 3:52
  the information around here,
• 3:53
  I don't know what happened.
• 3:54
  I don't know.
• 3:55
  Like,
• 3:56
  I will say whatever
• 3:57
  happened with Tallarico and the way they handled this situation
• 4:01
  would be really concerning to me if I were a Tallarico supporter.
• 4:04
  I am not.
• 4:06
  Uh,
• 4:06
  but if I were,
• 4:06
  I would be really concerned about what the way
• 4:08
  the campaign handled this in the first place because
• 4:10
  when you kind of just disappear and don't really say much of anything to anybody.
• 4:14
  There was a couple of leaks from inside the campaign.
• 4:17
  Oh,
• 4:17
  he's got the flu.
• 4:18
  Should have been a much bigger deal if you're gonna,
• 4:19
  if you,
• 4:19
  the guy's gonna be gone for 9 days or 13 days or they say 7 days.
• 4:23
  It was more like 11 or 13 days,
• 4:25
  uh,
• 4:25
  that he just kind of disappears.
• 4:27
  So that is something that
• 4:29
  the competence of that campaign
• 4:32
  is pretty easily questioned there.
• 4:33
  And then,
• 4:33
  you know,
• 4:34
  of course,
• 4:34
  that opens you up to questions as to what kind of job you would do as a senator.
• 4:38
  I don't know,
• 4:39
  uh,
• 4:39
  you know,
• 4:40
  I mean,
• 4:40
  uh,
• 4:40
  is it worse or better than your average replacement level Democrat?
• 4:43
  Feels to me to be worse,
• 4:44
  uh,
• 4:45
  but we've had an interesting back and forth discussion in the chat
• 4:48
  at predictableShow.com about the approach of Paxton and his ads.
• 4:53
  If you've seen any of the ads here in Texas,
• 4:54
  to me,
• 4:55
  it kind of strikes me as
• 4:57
  A really good ad campaign
• 4:59
  for 2024.
• 5:00
  Like,
• 5:01
  in 2024,
• 5:02
  1 of the big ways that Republicans were able to win there is to say,
• 5:05
  hey,
• 5:05
  look at these cultural issues.
• 5:06
  Look at all the crazy things Democrats said about them.
• 5:09
  They wanted to get rid of,
• 5:10
  uh,
• 5:10
  ICE,
• 5:10
  they wanted to defund the police,
• 5:12
  they wanted to,
• 5:13
  uh,
• 5:13
  put,
• 5:13
  uh,
• 5:14
  boys and girls' sports and all those things,
• 5:16
  uh,
• 5:17
  all the woke kind of nonsense.
• 5:19
  Um,
• 5:20
  that was a central focus of Republicans in 2024 to really good effect,
• 5:24
  and those ads probably test pretty well.
• 5:26
  I just don't know if that's gonna be as effective in 2026,
• 5:29
  and almost every single ad,
• 5:31
  Paxton and all the super PAC money is running right now,
• 5:34
  is hitting
• 5:35
  the
• 5:35
  Tallarico on
• 5:37
  a slew of similar complaints where he's saying,
• 5:40
  OK,
• 5:40
  well,
• 5:41
  Uh,
• 5:42
  he said God is non-binary.
• 5:44
  He said,
• 5:44
  uh,
• 5:44
  there are 6 genders,
• 5:46
  but science says that it confirms that there are 6 genders,
• 5:48
  uh,
• 5:49
  that you,
• 5:50
  it's abusive
• 5:51
  if you don't let your kid have surgery to change their gender.
• 5:54
  All those things are,
• 5:56
  you know,
• 5:57
  1090 positions in our country,
• 6:00
  especially in Texas.
• 6:01
  People don't believe those things.
• 6:02
  Those are wild statements,
• 6:03
  but
• 6:04
  The number one things on people's concern list are not those issues right now,
• 6:10
  uh,
• 6:10
  as much as they were in 2024.
• 6:11
  So that is a,
• 6:12
  an interesting thing and,
• 6:13
  and I,
• 6:14
  you know,
• 6:14
  as I said,
• 6:15
  I thought
• 6:16
  Republicans were gonna have to spend a fortune
• 6:18
  to win in Texas in this race,
• 6:21
  uh,
• 6:21
  despite the fact that Tallarico's,
• 6:22
  uh,
• 6:23
  you know,
• 6:23
  look,
• 6:23
  to me,
• 6:24
  way out there for what Texas typically would vote for.
• 6:27
  But you have a young state,
• 6:28
  um,
• 6:29
  uh,
• 6:29
  you have a,
• 6:29
  uh,
• 6:30
  Hispanic state where Republicans were like,
• 6:32
  oh,
• 6:32
  we've got these Hispanic voters in 2024,
• 6:34
  we'll have them forever,
• 6:35
  not showing to be true.
• 6:36
  Oh,
• 6:37
  we did better with young voters in 2024.
• 6:38
  We'll,
• 6:39
  we own those guys forever,
• 6:40
  not showing to be true.
• 6:42
  So,
• 6:43
  uh,
• 6:44
  uh,
• 6:44
  you know,
• 6:44
  in fact,
• 6:44
  we did a segment,
• 6:45
  um,
• 6:46
  a couple of weeks ago about the Republican freak out index.
• 6:48
  This was an index I built,
• 6:50
  basically saying,
• 6:51
  OK,
• 6:51
  here are all the problems areas for Republicans.
• 6:53
  Where are those problem areas
• 6:55
  most
• 6:57
  pungent,
• 6:58
  if you will.
• 6:59
  Uh,
• 6:59
  and the number one state on the Republican freak out index was Texas.
• 7:03
  So I think this is real,
• 7:04
  it's a real problem in Texas.
• 7:06
  Uh,
• 7:06
  I,
• 7:07
  you know,
• 7:07
  I still think there's hope for Tallarico,
• 7:09
  uh,
• 7:09
  or excuse me,
• 7:09
  for Paxton over Tallarico.
• 7:11
  I still think there's hope for Greg Abbott,
• 7:13
  even more hope for Abbott than Paxton,
• 7:15
  uh,
• 7:15
  in this state,
• 7:16
  but
• 7:16
  that's one of the things people keep asking me about.
• 7:18
  It's,
• 7:19
  I would say it's the marquee race of
• 7:21
  this.
• 7:23
  Election year.
• 7:24
  Can
• 7:26
  Democrats who've been trying forever
• 7:28
  to flip the state back to blue,
• 7:29
  used to get Democrats all the time,
• 7:31
  uh,
• 7:31
  back in the day,
• 7:32
  but not anymore,
• 7:33
  not since 1994.
• 7:34
  Um,
• 7:35
  uh,
• 7:36
  and they're getting good polling out of Tallarico.
• 7:38
  If you remember,
• 7:38
  they tried this with Beto,
• 7:39
  they've tried this with 10 different people.
• 7:41
  Betto,
• 7:41
  never was leading the race.
• 7:43
  Now,
• 7:43
  look,
• 7:44
  Cruz has his deficiencies as a candidate.
• 7:47
  I,
• 7:47
  I,
• 7:47
  I mean,
• 7:47
  he probably wouldn't even tell you about it,
• 7:48
  right?
• 7:49
  I mean,
• 7:49
  like,
• 7:49
  he's not the,
• 7:50
  the perfect candidate per se.
• 7:52
  Um,
• 7:52
  even though I think I,
• 7:53
  you know,
• 7:53
  I've always liked Ted Cruz,
• 7:55
  uh,
• 7:55
  generally,
• 7:56
  I think he does a good job as a senator,
• 7:57
  but like he's not necessarily scoring super high on some,
• 8:00
  uh,
• 8:00
  likability measures,
• 8:02
  and he doesn't always poll that well.
• 8:04
  Um,
• 8:04
  he still never was trailing in polls against Beto O'Rourke.
• 8:07
  It was just kind of close and people thought,
• 8:09
  well,
• 8:09
  if there's a polling error in Democrats' favor.
• 8:11
  Then maybe,
• 8:12
  uh,
• 8:12
  he,
• 8:12
  he could win.
• 8:13
  Tallarico's leading most of these polls.
• 8:15
  Another poll suggesting that Tallarico could beat Ken Paxson in Texas is out.
• 8:19
  Uh,
• 8:20
  this one is
• 8:22
  Recon MR and the Sienna Polling Institute.
• 8:25
  I've seen this name,
• 8:26
  Sienna Polling Institute a couple of times.
• 8:28
  I,
• 8:28
  I gotta be honest with you,
• 8:29
  I'm not familiar with them.
• 8:30
  There is the New York Times Sienna College poll,
• 8:33
  which is highly respected.
• 8:35
  Um,
• 8:35
  it's certainly one of the most highly respected mainstream media polls.
• 8:39
  This one just has the same name,
• 8:40
  Sienna.
• 8:40
  I don't think it's the same.
• 8:42
  I,
• 8:42
  I've been confused on this a couple of times.
• 8:43
  And if I'm confused about it,
• 8:44
  probably a lot of people are,
• 8:45
  it might be why they named themselves Sienna.
• 8:47
  Uh,
• 8:47
  anyway,
• 8:47
  uh,
• 8:48
  they're up,
• 8:48
  uh,
• 8:48
  they're showing 48-44,
• 8:50
  uh,
• 8:50
  a 4-point lead for Tallarico over Paxson,
• 8:53
  which is
• 8:53
  in the mix of where these polls have been.
• 8:56
  Um,
• 8:57
  actually,
• 8:57
  Tallarico's lead is slightly down.
• 8:59
  It was 6 points,
• 9:00
  said the polling institute before.
• 9:02
  Again,
• 9:02
  it's been since 1994,
• 9:04
  uh,
• 9:04
  where there has been a Democrat in office.
• 9:06
  This is what the last few polls are,
• 9:08
  of course,
• 9:08
  highlights with that,
• 9:09
  uh,
• 9:09
  first poll,
• 9:09
  4 point lead
• 9:11
  for Tallarico.
• 9:13
  Uh,
• 9:13
  Trafalgar,
• 9:14
  again,
• 9:14
  a Republican pollster
• 9:16
  showing a 4-point lead,
• 9:17
  uh,
• 9:18
  over,
• 9:18
  uh,
• 9:18
  for Tallarico over Paxton.
• 9:20
  YouGov,
• 9:21
  uh,
• 9:22
  Tallarico up by 6.
• 9:23
  New York Times,
• 9:24
  Sienna
• 9:26
  University
• 9:26
  is Tallarico up by 6 as well.
• 9:29
  By the way,
• 9:30
  and a lot of times you'll see this,
• 9:30
  you see this in the second poll there,
• 9:32
  um,
• 9:32
  uh,
• 9:32
  Tallarico + 4,
• 9:34
  and then it's 47 to 44.
• 9:36
  That's just because of rounding.
• 9:37
  If you ever see that,
• 9:38
  that's why it's only a 3-point lead when you actually look at the raw numbers,
• 9:41
  4-point lead.
• 9:42
  Uh,
• 9:42
  when you round it,
• 9:43
  they get it to 4th.
• 9:44
  That's what they're doing there.
• 9:45
  OK,
• 9:45
  so,
• 9:46
  uh,
• 9:46
  let me look at the markets,
• 9:47
  and I wanna take you through this journey
• 9:49
  that we're on before we get to,
• 9:50
  uh,
• 9:50
  one other point I want to make because I've
• 9:52
  been having some conversations with people about this race.
• 9:54
  This is the market right now.
• 9:55
  And,
• 9:56
  um,
• 9:56
  you,
• 9:57
  you see this is in,
• 9:57
  uh,
• 9:58
  in Texas,
• 9:58
  uh,
• 9:59
  You know,
• 9:59
  it was basically an 80/20 race the entire time
• 10:02
  until we got to 2026,
• 10:04
  started to narrow and kind of locked in at a 60/40 race
• 10:08
  with Paxton as the favorite for about,
• 10:11
  I don't know,
• 10:12
  6 months,
• 10:13
  5 months.
• 10:14
  Uh,
• 10:14
  then started narrowing again.
• 10:16
  We had a tie situation for about a month there,
• 10:19
  and since then,
• 10:20
  Tallarico has taken off.
• 10:21
  He now leads with 65%.
• 10:22
  If you could give me a month,
• 10:23
  uh,
• 10:24
  on this chart,
• 10:24
  if you would,
• 10:24
  Adam.
• 10:25
  Um,
• 10:26
  if you kind of look at this,
• 10:27
  you do see a dip,
• 10:28
  uh,
• 10:28
  go back to October 6th,
• 10:29
  that area,
• 10:30
  that peak right there for Tallarico.
• 10:32
  Um,
• 10:32
  back a little bit earlier,
• 10:33
  a little earlier in the,
• 10:34
  there,
• 10:35
  the peak,
• 10:35
  the peak,
• 10:35
  the peak.
• 10:36
  There we go.
• 10:36
  Talrico at 66% there at Paxson at 34%.
• 10:40
  You see this narrow from here,
• 10:42
  around this time,
• 10:43
  uh,
• 10:43
  you get a little bit better polling for Paxson,
• 10:45
  and then right here,
• 10:46
  as we're about to hit this next bump,
• 10:47
  right there
• 10:48
  is where,
• 10:49
  uh,
• 10:50
  we saw
• 10:51
  the,
• 10:52
  where is James Tallarico stuff happening?
• 10:54
  Did,
• 10:54
  did he go to a mental health facility?
• 10:55
  What's wrong with this guy?
• 10:57
  It narrowed from about 34% to 38% or 39% for Paxton,
• 11:01
  so it moved about 5 points there.
• 11:03
  Now though,
• 11:03
  after the details of that have come out,
• 11:05
  people seem satisfied,
• 11:06
  at least his voters are satisfied with the answers there.
• 11:08
  It's bounced back to a 65-35 race.
• 11:11
  Tallarico,
• 11:12
  uh,
• 11:12
  leading
• 11:13
  in that particular,
• 11:14
  uh,
• 11:14
  race.
• 11:15
  Now,
• 11:15
  uh,
• 11:16
  I was talking to someone,
• 11:17
  uh,
• 11:17
  the other day about.
• 11:19
  Uh,
• 11:19
  this is somebody who's a real conservative,
• 11:21
  um,
• 11:22
  Republican guy
• 11:24
  really wants James Del Rico to lose.
• 11:27
  And
• 11:28
  this is what's one thing that will be challenging to you if you are new to this world.
• 11:32
  If you are a person who has,
• 11:34
  um,
• 11:35
  always followed politics closely,
• 11:37
  but never really been in prediction markets,
• 11:39
  I would say,
• 11:40
  by the way,
• 11:40
  that is the majority of the audience of this show.
• 11:44
  Um,
• 11:44
  you know,
• 11:44
  we are the biggest show in the prediction market space.
• 11:48
  Uh,
• 11:49
  we have a lot of people who've come over
• 11:51
  from
• 11:51
  the traditional political world who are just,
• 11:53
  you know,
• 11:53
  like,
• 11:54
  like me,
• 11:54
  kind of like obsessed with politics,
• 11:55
  love learning about this stuff,
• 11:56
  like,
• 11:57
  love understanding it,
• 11:58
  and are thinking to themselves,
• 11:59
  well,
• 11:59
  I,
• 11:59
  I wanna get into this world because I know a lot about this stuff,
• 12:02
  and then maybe there's some opportunities for profit for me.
• 12:05
  Um,
• 12:06
  and
• 12:07
  You get into that world,
• 12:08
  you get into this,
• 12:09
  this situation,
• 12:10
  and you find yourself making a lot
• 12:11
  of difficult and honestly uncomfortable choices.
• 12:15
  I hate to make your life more complicated than it probably already is,
• 12:18
  but that is sort of prediction market life.
• 12:21
  If you are a person who has real rooting interests
• 12:24
  in the world of politics,
• 12:25
  as I do,
• 12:26
  as most people do,
• 12:28
  getting into the prediction market world at
• 12:29
  times can make you really uncomfortable.
• 12:32
  You might look at this race and say,
• 12:34
  everything in me tells me James Tallarico's gonna win.
• 12:37
  But I really want Ken Paxton to win.
• 12:40
  What do I do?
• 12:42
  Um,
• 12:42
  and
• 12:44
  It's a tough thing for people to get up cause you almost,
• 12:46
  there's a part of you that kind of feels like,
• 12:48
  am I jinxing a candidate if I go against them?
• 12:50
  Am I,
• 12:51
  uh,
• 12:52
  doing something that's gonna make the,
• 12:54
  make the team that I'm on
• 12:56
  go the wrong direction?
• 12:57
  You know,
• 12:57
  it kind of feels that way,
• 12:58
  even though you kind of logically know that's not true.
• 13:01
  Like you're,
• 13:02
  you putting $20 into a prediction market does not make James Tallarico win or lose.
• 13:06
  I will tell you this,
• 13:07
  your position in prediction markets
• 13:09
  has
• 13:10
  nothing to do
• 13:11
  with the outcome of these races.
• 13:13
  And that's a really important thing to internalize,
• 13:15
  even though I think we all know it,
• 13:17
  we all understand it if we were to,
• 13:19
  uh,
• 13:20
  take an exam on as to how the world works,
• 13:22
  we'd all know that obviously my prediction market position has
• 13:24
  nothing to do with the outcome of this race,
• 13:26
  but
• 13:28
  There's something that kind of makes us feel like it might,
• 13:30
  right?
• 13:31
  Is there some weird force I'm putting on this race?
• 13:34
  You hope that's,
• 13:35
  uh,
• 13:35
  not true,
• 13:36
  right?
• 13:37
  Because if you are going in there and you're,
• 13:39
  it's gonna tempt you to go for your side,
• 13:42
  your candidate,
• 13:43
  your team.
• 13:45
  In the world of prediction markets,
• 13:47
  you have to let that go.
• 13:49
  If you want to be profitable,
• 13:51
  year after year after year in prediction markets,
• 13:53
  as,
• 13:53
  look,
• 13:54
  I've,
• 13:54
  I've had a really good run on this bet going back over a decade.
• 13:57
  One of the ways I've done that is to take
• 13:59
  everything I want to happen and throw it out
• 14:01
  the window when I'm looking at these sites.
• 14:03
  Because the second you start taking that into account
• 14:06
  in any real way.
• 14:08
  Um,
• 14:08
  and I'll give you one exception to this,
• 14:10
  but in any real way.
• 14:12
  You are going
• 14:13
  to burn yourself.
• 14:15
  And you're gonna leave yourself
• 14:16
  not only upset with the results sometimes,
• 14:19
  but also
• 14:21
  upset and poorer.
• 14:23
  You will have
• 14:24
  less money in your prediction market accounts
• 14:26
  if you do this.
• 14:27
  We have,
• 14:27
  uh,
• 14:28
  uh,
• 14:28
  if you go to predictableShow.com,
• 14:30
  we have a constitution there.
• 14:31
  There are 18 amendments to the predictable
• 14:33
  constitution.
• 14:34
  Let me highlight a couple,
• 14:35
  uh,
• 14:36
  for you.
• 14:37
  Uh,
• 14:38
  I've got,
• 14:38
  I got them listed down here,
• 14:39
  uh,
• 14:40
  under the desk.
• 14:40
  Um,
• 14:41
  let's say number 10.
• 14:43
  I think this might be the most important amendment
• 14:46
  in the entire predictable constitution,
• 14:47
  the 10th Amendment.
• 14:49
  Which states,
• 14:50
  we root
• 14:52
  for the world
• 14:52
  that we want.
• 14:54
  We invest in the world that we have.
• 14:57
  And
• 14:58
  you should never,
• 14:59
  uh,
• 15:00
  be out there,
• 15:00
  uh,
• 15:01
  rooting for your country to be worse,
• 15:04
  your state to be worse,
• 15:05
  uh,
• 15:06
  the future of your children to be worse,
• 15:08
  so that you win a prediction market position,
• 15:11
  right?
• 15:11
  Hey,
• 15:12
  I made 100 bucks on this prediction market,
• 15:13
  but now my taxes are gonna go up by 50%.
• 15:16
  That's not a good trade-off,
• 15:17
  right?
• 15:18
  You should always be rooting for what you want.
• 15:20
  This should never change
• 15:22
  your view as to what you want to happen in the world.
• 15:24
  Uh,
• 15:24
  frankly,
• 15:25
  what happens in the world is more
• 15:26
  important than what happens in prediction markets.
• 15:29
  By a large margin.
• 15:31
  What we have here is a secondary interest
• 15:34
  in politics.
• 15:35
  A way to
• 15:36
  maybe profit off of what's going on in the knowledge that you have in these markets,
• 15:39
  but also
• 15:40
  a way,
• 15:41
  uh,
• 15:41
  to offset some of the negative.
• 15:43
  And so when I say root for the world that you want,
• 15:45
  invest in the world that you have,
• 15:47
  it's saying like,
• 15:48
  look,
• 15:48
  don't let this change what you're rooting for.
• 15:50
  Go out there and root for the things that you think are best for the country,
• 15:53
  for the,
• 15:53
  for the best for the people around you.
• 15:55
  What's gonna make your country,
• 15:56
  your world a better place?
• 15:58
  That's what we root for.
• 15:59
  But we have to be realistic as to what is
• 16:01
  actually going to happen if you want to be profitable
• 16:04
  in a prediction market.
• 16:05
  If you're out there just throwing uh your money around at things you want to happen,
• 16:10
  what's likely going to happen is you're gonna be blinded by your rooting interest.
• 16:15
  That's been a tough decision.
• 16:16
  I,
• 16:16
  I've had to deal with that many times.
• 16:18
  All these
• 16:20
  predictable constitutional amendments are based on things that I've done
• 16:23
  incorrectly over the years.
• 16:25
  Usually some big fat mistake
• 16:27
  that I've made.
• 16:27
  I've had big rooting interest in elections,
• 16:29
  and I think at times it blinds me from
• 16:31
  analyzing them correctly.
• 16:33
  It's OK to have rooting interests.
• 16:35
  It's OK to even be involved in the race.
• 16:36
  It can be OK to go out
• 16:38
  and vote for a candidate and,
• 16:39
  and,
• 16:39
  and,
• 16:40
  and,
• 16:40
  and platform,
• 16:41
  uh,
• 16:41
  you know,
• 16:42
  try to,
• 16:42
  you know,
• 16:42
  go on,
• 16:43
  uh,
• 16:43
  make phone calls for them and,
• 16:44
  and,
• 16:44
  and go around and,
• 16:45
  and volunteer for the for that candidate.
• 16:49
  And at the same time,
• 16:49
  you go home and you say,
• 16:50
  you know what though,
• 16:51
  I don't think they're gonna win.
• 16:51
  I'm gonna go with the other guy.
• 16:53
  That might feel weird,
• 16:54
  like you're being disloyal,
• 16:55
  but you're not.
• 16:57
  It's got nothing to do with the campaign.
• 16:59
  It's got nothing to do with who's actually going to win and who's going to lose.
• 17:02
  Your efforts can be pushed as hard as you can
• 17:04
  toward a candidate that you love,
• 17:06
  while at the same time taking a position against them,
• 17:08
  because,
• 17:09
  A,
• 17:09
  it doesn't actually affect the race,
• 17:11
  and B,
• 17:11
  you're trying to be smart with your money.
• 17:14
  You should be smart with your money.
• 17:15
  Uh,
• 17:16
  a lot of these politicians are gonna try to take it from you.
• 17:19
  Politicians have been making money off of you,
• 17:21
  your entire life.
• 17:22
  It's OK to try to make some money off of them.
• 17:25
  And
• 17:25
  looking at these races in a sober,
• 17:28
  controlled,
• 17:28
  analytical way is the way you're going to make money in these markets.
• 17:32
  If what you wanna do is try to like have a,
• 17:35
  have a rooting interest,
• 17:37
  that's not necessarily going,
• 17:39
  uh,
• 17:39
  to,
• 17:40
  to be a fruitful way to grow
• 17:42
  your bankroll.
• 17:45
  So that's one prediction market position we talk about a lot.
• 17:49
  The 10th Amendment,
• 17:49
  root for the world that you want,
• 17:51
  invest in the world that you have.
• 17:53
  A secondary one that that I think builds off of that as well is the 12th Amendment.
• 17:58
  Don't invest with your heart.
• 18:00
  And we all
• 18:01
  have that in us.
• 18:02
  We,
• 18:03
  we want
• 18:04
  something to happen.
• 18:05
  We want there to be a good result for us,
• 18:07
  for our country,
• 18:08
  but we don't always get there.
• 18:09
  We don't always get what we want.
• 18:11
  And so,
• 18:11
  what I would say to you is to take yourself out of this moment.
• 18:15
  Take yourself out of the moment where you're thinking about these
• 18:17
  campaigns all the time and really wanting something to happen,
• 18:20
  and think about the moment
• 18:21
  after
• 18:22
  the polls have closed and the results are coming in.
• 18:26
  There are basically two options here for you.
• 18:30
  If you're gonna be in prediction markets,
• 18:32
  And your candidate is going to lose.
• 18:35
  You can either
• 18:38
  Have your candidate lose
• 18:40
  and have no money or less money.
• 18:43
  Or
• 18:44
  you can have your candidate lose,
• 18:46
  and you have more money than you did before.
• 18:49
  And there's a bit of a thing,
• 18:51
  I call it hedge your life,
• 18:52
  uh,
• 18:53
  involved in this,
• 18:54
  where if you really believe
• 18:57
  that,
• 18:57
  uh,
• 18:57
  this is gonna,
• 18:58
  you know,
• 18:58
  really make you upset and,
• 18:59
  and,
• 19:00
  and make your country worse,
• 19:02
  being paid for that pain is a little bit better
• 19:05
  than the alternative.
• 19:07
  Um,
• 19:07
  so if you're at that point where you're unsure on a race,
• 19:09
  I,
• 19:10
  I always feel more comfortable going against the candidate I want to win,
• 19:13
  frankly,
• 19:14
  because at least at the end of the day,
• 19:15
  I know,
• 19:16
  um,
• 19:16
  if that happens,
• 19:18
  uh,
• 19:19
  my,
• 19:19
  you know,
• 19:19
  if my candidate loses,
• 19:21
  I will have some sort of payment for it.
• 19:23
  And if my candidate wins,
• 19:24
  think about your life after that.
• 19:27
  You know,
• 19:27
  yeah,
• 19:27
  maybe you,
• 19:28
  you put $50 on a,
• 19:29
  uh,
• 19:29
  on,
• 19:29
  on a position that you lost.
• 19:31
  Do you care?
• 19:32
  If your candidate wins,
• 19:33
  do you care?
• 19:34
  Cause I know to me it's much more important than $20.50 dollars
• 19:38
  that my candidate would win.
• 19:39
  And I will say it's not just
• 19:41
  cause I hate the term emotional hedge,
• 19:43
  uh,
• 19:43
  cause I don't,
• 19:44
  I don't,
• 19:44
  I don't feel like that's what it is.
• 19:46
  Um,
• 19:46
  I feel like it's more than emotions,
• 19:48
  um,
• 19:49
  especially when you're talking about a situation like this.
• 19:51
  Now,
• 19:51
  again,
• 19:52
  I'm,
• 19:52
  I'm taking my personal politics out of this for a second,
• 19:54
  but like,
• 19:55
  If you are a person who is a conservative,
• 19:58
  and you're looking at this and saying,
• 19:59
  hey,
• 19:59
  I don't want my taxes to go up.
• 20:01
  I got news for you.
• 20:02
  If,
• 20:03
  uh,
• 20:03
  a left-wing governor wins your state,
• 20:06
  there's a good chance your,
• 20:07
  your taxes are going up.
• 20:10
  How much is that gonna cost you?
• 20:13
  Maybe a lot.
• 20:14
  There have been situations where I've specifically gone in with just a,
• 20:17
  uh,
• 20:17
  uh,
• 20:18
  you know,
• 20:18
  a,
• 20:19
  uh,
• 20:19
  a trade-off of what's gonna happen in this election.
• 20:21
  I think my taxes are gonna go up by 5%.
• 20:23
  5% equals this.
• 20:25
  Uh,
• 20:26
  so if I go,
• 20:27
  um,
• 20:28
  against
• 20:28
  the,
• 20:29
  uh,
• 20:29
  the.
• 20:29
  Right-wing candidate,
• 20:30
  and for the left-wing candidate,
• 20:32
  I might pay part of that tax bill
• 20:34
  with this hedge.
• 20:35
  That's not an emotional hedge,
• 20:37
  that's a financial one.
• 20:38
  You are actually offsetting the results of a bad election.
• 20:41
  You can do that on prediction markets.
• 20:43
  You can't do that anywhere else,
• 20:44
  really.
• 20:45
  I mean,
• 20:46
  you could try to do it in the markets.
• 20:47
  I mean a lot of people will be like,
• 20:48
  well,
• 20:48
  a Republican will win,
• 20:49
  and it means that my oil stocks will go up or whatever,
• 20:52
  you know,
• 20:52
  you could try to do it that way,
• 20:53
  but you can do it much more clearly in prediction markets.
• 20:55
  These are real things and,
• 20:56
  and something you can consider.
• 20:57
  And at the end of the day,
• 20:58
  you have to realize that you're,
• 21:00
  you taking a position in one of these markets,
• 21:01
  no matter which way you go,
• 21:03
  does not mean you want that to happen.
• 21:04
  You're not jinxing the candidate.
• 21:06
  At the end of the day,
• 21:08
  what you're doing is taking a smart financial position,
• 21:11
  sometimes to offset
• 21:12
  how you feel about the country,
• 21:14
  sometimes to offset your actual finances,
• 21:16
  sometimes,
• 21:17
  sometimes to offset your business.
• 21:18
  If you're a business that's gonna be negatively affected
• 21:20
  by a particular outcome in an election.
• 21:23
  Hedging it is a great idea.
• 21:25
  So you have this idea of not voting,
• 21:27
  uh,
• 21:28
  not,
• 21:28
  uh,
• 21:28
  taking a prediction market position
• 21:30
  with your heart.
• 21:31
  Don't invest with your heart.
• 21:33
  Take that out of it.
• 21:35
  Make your heart be black and,
• 21:36
  and,
• 21:37
  and,
• 21:38
  and just destroyed for a few minutes while you're on these sites.
• 21:42
  Take your emotions out of it,
• 21:43
  take your rooting interests out of it.
• 21:45
  And don't invest with,
• 21:46
  you know,
• 21:47
  uh,
• 21:47
  with your heart,
• 21:48
  because if you do that,
• 21:49
  you'll wind up getting burned double because your candidate
• 21:51
  still might lose and then you lost money too.
• 21:53
  And that's the worst place
• 21:54
  you don't want to be.
• 21:55
  OK,
• 21:56
  um,
• 21:57
  If you're one of these people who are like,
• 21:59
  hey,
• 21:59
  uh,
• 21:59
  prediction markets are interesting,
• 22:00
  maybe I,
• 22:01
  I get some information out of them,
• 22:02
  maybe I understand the world better.
• 22:04
  But I don't wanna lose any money in prediction markets.
• 22:05
  I don't want any risk.
• 22:06
  We build something specifically for you and
• 22:09
  honestly anybody else.
• 22:09
  If you're on prediction markets,
• 22:10
  you can participate in this as well.
• 22:12
  It is basically a fantasy league around the Senate.
• 22:15
  It's at senatefantasy.com.
• 22:17
  And you can go up there and you can take positions.
• 22:19
  One of the reasons I,
• 22:20
  I built the fantasy league the way I did,
• 22:22
  you have to take one Republican and you have to take one Democrat
• 22:25
  in there.
• 22:26
  It's gonna push you into those uncomfortable
• 22:27
  positions a little bit to get yourself,
• 22:29
  yeah,
• 22:29
  a little bit.
• 22:29
  Used to it.
• 22:30
  And I like being,
• 22:31
  being,
• 22:32
  cause I always say to you,
• 22:32
  look,
• 22:33
  let's start small,
• 22:34
  put 1020 bucks in there.
• 22:35
  But like,
• 22:36
  I don't even want you to have to risk that if you don't have to.
• 22:38
  This is a way that you could actually profit.
• 22:40
  I will fund
• 22:41
  your prediction market account
• 22:42
  if you win these contests,
• 22:43
  uh,
• 22:44
  or you can,
• 22:44
  you know,
• 22:45
  keep the money and spend on tacos,
• 22:46
  whatever you want.
• 22:47
  Um,
• 22:47
  but that is what we're doing with,
• 22:49
  with the Senate Fantasy League.
• 22:50
  Do we have this,
• 22:50
  uh,
• 22:51
  list right now?
• 22:51
  There's tons of people who have already started joining.
• 22:54
  Um,
• 22:54
  you know,
• 22:55
  you see,
• 22:55
  uh,
• 22:56
  all here,
• 22:56
  uh,
• 22:57
  this is the leaderboard right now.
• 22:58
  You start at 1000 points,
• 22:59
  you go up and down from there depending on these values,
• 23:01
  and at the end,
• 23:02
  your candidates win,
• 23:03
  you're gonna have points,
• 23:04
  your candidates lose,
• 23:04
  you're gonna lose points.
• 23:05
  Uh,
• 23:05
  you can kind of scroll through here.
• 23:07
  We're starting to add people from the staff.
• 23:09
  You kind of see a couple of them
• 23:10
  up on the list as well.
• 23:11
  I will be on there eventually as well.
• 23:14
  You put your name in and like,
• 23:15
  look,
• 23:15
  let's get to the bottom here.
• 23:16
  Who's,
• 23:16
  who's the,
• 23:17
  who's doing the worst.
• 23:21
  In last place currently is a team named
• 23:23
  Definitely not Stu Bergere.
• 23:25
  I,
• 23:26
  I don't,
• 23:26
  do I have to sue here?
• 23:27
  Do we have to start that?
• 23:28
  Am I suing listeners?
• 23:29
  Is that what we're doing?
• 23:30
  Uh,
• 23:31
  no,
• 23:31
  no,
• 23:31
  he he said definitely not Stu Bergere.
• 23:32
  So that's an actual,
• 23:33
  actual,
• 23:33
  uh,
• 23:34
  uh,
• 23:34
  accurate statement.
• 23:35
  Uh,
• 23:35
  right now,
• 23:36
  off to a tough start.
• 23:36
  That's OK.
• 23:37
  Uh,
• 23:38
  you see all these people's,
• 23:39
  uh,
• 23:40
  I'm interested in ZB cards because that sounds like it might be my son,
• 23:42
  and I'm pretty sure you have to be 18 to be in this contest,
• 23:44
  but that's a whole other thing.
• 23:45
  He,
• 23:45
  he's a big sports card trader,
• 23:47
  so,
• 23:48
  did he build his own team?
• 23:49
  What other,
• 23:50
  I love some of these team names on here.
• 23:51
  Uh,
• 23:52
  some of them are,
• 23:52
  are,
• 23:52
  are,
• 23:53
  uh,
• 23:54
  are really,
• 23:54
  uh,
• 23:55
  really funny.
• 23:56
  Uh,
• 23:56
  the profiteers of Prediction like that one.
• 23:59
  what else do we have here?
• 24:00
  Scroll down a little bit.
• 24:01
  Let's see what else we have.
• 24:02
  I haven't,
• 24:02
  I,
• 24:03
  I will be honest with you,
• 24:04
  my eyes are terrible and I'm having a difficult time seeing this.
• 24:06
  Uh,
• 24:07
  The Wonderful World of Doing predictions,
• 24:09
  I like that,
• 24:10
  uh,
• 24:10
  kind of based on the show here.
• 24:12
  Uh,
• 24:13
  anyway,
• 24:13
  this can be you.
• 24:13
  These are all free,
• 24:14
  by the way.
• 24:15
  Um,
• 24:16
  you can go there,
• 24:17
  you can,
• 24:17
  uh,
• 24:17
  join up,
• 24:18
  and you just,
• 24:20
  uh,
• 24:20
  free to enter,
• 24:21
  no risk at all.
• 24:22
  Go there,
• 24:23
  you put a team name in,
• 24:24
  you pick,
• 24:25
  uh,
• 24:25
  it's 8 senators.
• 24:26
  It will walk you through the entire process.
• 24:28
  You don't need to know everything about each one of these races.
• 24:30
  It's just a fun exercise to kind of get you familiar
• 24:32
  with how these.
• 24:33
  Fiction markets work
• 24:34
  and how things go up and down and everything else.
• 24:36
  So,
• 24:36
  go there,
• 24:37
  go to Senatefantasy.com,
• 24:39
  get your team in right now.
• 24:40
  Um,
• 24:40
  we have a couple more weeks and we'll be taking entries.
• 24:43
  And then afterwards,
• 24:44
  the first prize is,
• 24:45
  uh,
• 24:45
  I think $2500.
• 24:47
  You also get a lifetime subscription to PredictableShow.com if you win.
• 24:51
  Uh,
• 24:51
  there are prizes all the way down for the top,
• 24:53
  I think,
• 24:54
  100 people have to finish in the top 100,
• 24:56
  as you saw there,
• 24:57
  there's like 80-something in so far,
• 24:59
  so everybody's winning right now.
• 25:00
  Uh,
• 25:00
  that'll grow,
• 25:01
  of course.
• 25:01
  We would love for you to be involved in this and take part.
• 25:04
  It's a really fun way to get involved in the elections,
• 25:07
  in prediction markets,
• 25:08
  and,
• 25:08
  and just also
• 25:09
  have some fun,
• 25:10
  go up against your friends,
• 25:11
  share this with your friends and say,
• 25:12
  you go in here,
• 25:13
  let's see who wins.
• 25:14
  Between us,
• 25:15
  you know,
• 25:16
  it's,
• 25:16
  it's just a fun exercise,
• 25:17
  and I think you'll really like it.
• 25:18
  Uh,
• 25:18
  it's at senatefantassy.com.
• 25:20
  OK,
• 25:21
  uh,
• 25:21
  we have a lot to get to today.
• 25:22
  Uh,
• 25:22
  there's a lot of money flowing in politics,
• 25:24
  not just at Senate Fantasy.com,
• 25:26
  but
• 25:26
  all throughout politics,
• 25:27
  hundreds of millions,
• 25:28
  billions
• 25:29
  of dollars are being spent around the country,
• 25:31
  and a lot of times,
• 25:32
  if you follow the money,
• 25:33
  it will tell you a lot about what the results are going to be.
• 25:36
  We'll do that
• 25:37
  next.
• 25:55
  We have an election model,
• 25:57
  uh,
• 25:57
  Senate model up on,
• 25:58
  uh,
• 25:58
  predictableshow.com called the Predictable midterm consensus.
• 26:02
  It is available.
• 26:03
  It's on the top tab there.
• 26:04
  If you go to the midterm tab,
• 26:05
  uh,
• 26:06
  it will describe it to you.
• 26:06
  This is what it looks like,
• 26:07
  predictable midterm consensus.
• 26:08
  We just,
• 26:09
  uh,
• 26:09
  does it look like the new update is there.
• 26:11
  I can't tell that,
• 26:12
  uh,
• 26:13
  last
• 26:13
  model update,
• 26:14
  October 8th.
• 26:14
  I don't think that's right.
• 26:15
  It's actually more,
• 26:16
  uh,
• 26:16
  I did it last night.
• 26:17
  But anyway,
• 26:17
  uh,
• 26:18
  you go through there,
• 26:19
  um,
• 26:19
  the data will probably be updated by the time you see it.
• 26:21
  Uh,
• 26:22
  check it out,
• 26:22
  and it has control of the House and Senate and every single Senate control,
• 26:26
  uh,
• 26:26
  mechanism for,
• 26:27
  um,
• 26:28
  predictable
• 26:29
  premium subscribers.
• 26:31
  You can check that out there.
• 26:32
  It's actually one of the,
• 26:32
  this,
• 26:33
  this last update I did last night
• 26:35
  was probably the,
• 26:36
  uh,
• 26:36
  most,
• 26:37
  uh,
• 26:37
  positive for Republicans in a long time.
• 26:40
  There have been a lot of negative polling,
• 26:42
  a lot of negative stories,
• 26:43
  all,
• 26:43
  all the things you've probably heard in the media.
• 26:46
  Yesterday.
• 26:47
  Tons,
• 26:47
  it was,
• 26:48
  you know,
• 26:48
  tons and tons of Republican inputs going,
• 26:51
  uh,
• 26:51
  toward,
• 26:51
  uh,
• 26:52
  the right,
• 26:53
  um,
• 26:53
  uh,
• 26:53
  which is,
• 26:54
  you know,
• 26:54
  certainly good for,
• 26:55
  uh,
• 26:56
  Republican candidates.
• 26:56
  So good update for Republicans
• 26:58
  last night.
• 26:59
  Uh,
• 27:00
  GOP groups are pulling support,
• 27:02
  however,
• 27:02
  from first House incumbents.
• 27:04
  This is a major story.
• 27:05
  And,
• 27:06
  uh,
• 27:06
  one we've talked about for a while.
• 27:08
  One way to understand the elections,
• 27:10
  yeah,
• 27:10
  you can look at polls,
• 27:11
  yeah,
• 27:11
  you can look at data,
• 27:11
  you can look at history,
• 27:12
  you can look at fundraising,
• 27:13
  you can look at tons of different measures,
• 27:15
  uh,
• 27:16
  demographics,
• 27:17
  um,
• 27:17
  you know,
• 27:18
  anything you want,
• 27:19
  prediction markets are certainly
• 27:20
  maybe the best way.
• 27:21
  They take all this data and put it into one number.
• 27:23
  You can look at all that stuff,
• 27:25
  but one way,
• 27:26
  one interesting thing to look at is the money.
• 27:29
  If
• 27:31
  Republicans are investing in a race,
• 27:32
  turning on new money,
• 27:33
  a lot of times they're signaling,
• 27:34
  yeah,
• 27:35
  maybe we have hope there.
• 27:36
  If they're pulling money out of races,
• 27:38
  they're kind of quote unquote,
• 27:39
  giving up on them.
• 27:40
  They're not giving up,
• 27:40
  they're still gonna campaign,
• 27:41
  they're gonna try really hard,
• 27:42
  and they might still win,
• 27:43
  but it does tell you a story about what they're seeing.
• 27:46
  In
• 27:47
  private polling,
• 27:48
  what they're seeing on the ground,
• 27:49
  what they actually believe about a particular
• 27:51
  race.
• 27:52
  Um,
• 27:53
  so,
• 27:54
  a couple of things have happened here.
• 27:55
  Officials with two super PACs decided
• 27:57
  to cancel all remaining advertising booked for
• 28:00
  Thomas Kean Jr
• 28:02
  of New Jersey.
• 28:04
  Now,
• 28:04
  this is what that race looks like right now.
• 28:07
  Uh,
• 28:07
  Thomas Keane is,
• 28:09
  uh,
• 28:09
  way behind now.
• 28:10
  Uh,
• 28:11
  now it's 92%
• 28:12
  for his opponent,
• 28:13
  Rebecca Bennett,
• 28:14
  uh,
• 28:15
  8%.
• 28:16
  Uh,
• 28:16
  for,
• 28:17
  uh,
• 28:17
  Thomas Keane Jr.
• 28:18
  By the way,
• 28:19
  you may remember this race,
• 28:20
  we've talked about it recently.
• 28:21
  You see this big spike he's had in that,
• 28:23
  in that graph,
• 28:24
  uh,
• 28:25
  over the past couple of weeks.
• 28:26
  Uh,
• 28:27
  actually,
• 28:27
  his opponent,
• 28:28
  Keene's opponent
• 28:29
  was one of our candidate countdown candidates of the day with 34 days
• 28:33
  left in the election.
• 28:33
  So what was that?
• 28:34
  2,
• 28:34
  basically 2 weeks ago,
• 28:36
  we featured Thomas Keane,
• 28:37
  uh,
• 28:38
  losing to Rebecca Bennett in that race,
• 28:40
  could have had,
• 28:40
  uh,
• 28:41
  good value,
• 28:41
  uh,
• 28:42
  there
• 28:42
  where we bought it.
• 28:43
  Um,
• 28:44
  and now it's,
• 28:44
  you know,
• 28:45
  up to 92.
• 28:45
  I,
• 28:45
  there might still be value there.
• 28:47
  The thing about that race is he had won close races previously,
• 28:49
  very close races,
• 28:51
  um,
• 28:51
  in a Democratic year,
• 28:52
  gonna be very,
• 28:52
  very tough to hold a,
• 28:54
  a 50/50 type seat anyway.
• 28:56
  Add on to that,
• 28:56
  he kind of disappeared for 4 months.
• 28:58
  He said he was dealing with depression.
• 29:00
  Uh,
• 29:00
  so that race is very difficult,
• 29:02
  and this is one of the Democrats' top recruits in Congress.
• 29:05
  Uh,
• 29:05
  so really a big uphill battle for Thomas Keane.
• 29:08
  That's why we identified it as a race where we thought there was value for you.
• 29:12
  And we've seen that play out and now Democrats
• 29:14
  are running in a race without Republican money
• 29:17
  coming into it
• 29:18
  in a big way.
• 29:19
  So that is one of the races.
• 29:20
  A couple of other ones I wanted to highlight from this article.
• 29:23
  Um,
• 29:25
  Republicans were trying to take down Greg Lanzman,
• 29:27
  uh,
• 29:28
  in Ohio 1,
• 29:29
  that district against Eric Conroy.
• 29:31
  Um,
• 29:32
  and now Republicans are taking money out of that race.
• 29:35
  Do we have that market out of that race,
• 29:37
  uh,
• 29:37
  here,
• 29:37
  you now see that one up at 89%
• 29:39
  for Landsman,
• 29:40
  11% for Conroy,
• 29:42
  just not looking good and hasn't looked good in a while in that race.
• 29:46
  This is a tough thing to do.
• 29:47
  I was just talking about difficult decisions during election time.
• 29:50
  It is really hard for people who,
• 29:53
  look,
• 29:54
  politics are politics,
• 29:56
  Money and politics corrupts,
• 29:57
  corrupts it.
• 29:57
  We all understand that,
• 29:58
  but
• 29:59
  fundamentally,
• 29:59
  a lot of the people involved in this process really freaking care,
• 30:02
  right?
• 30:03
  Like,
• 30:03
  you know,
• 30:03
  you might not like Ilhan Omar,
• 30:05
  but she really cares about the direction of the country.
• 30:07
  I mean,
• 30:08
  she wants it to go into the toilet in my opinion,
• 30:09
  but she really cares about it swirling around until it goes down those pipes.
• 30:14
  That is,
• 30:15
  uh,
• 30:15
  you know,
• 30:16
  these people aren't just,
• 30:17
  you know,
• 30:18
  there,
• 30:18
  there's a consultant class that maybe is less interested
• 30:20
  in it sees it more as a business,
• 30:22
  but generally speaking,
• 30:22
  the people who are running for office really care about which way the country goes.
• 30:26
  Uh,
• 30:26
  some of them really want the country to go in the right,
• 30:28
  uh,
• 30:28
  way,
• 30:29
  some of them you might think are going in the totally wrong direction,
• 30:32
  but they really do care,
• 30:34
  um,
• 30:35
  about what
• 30:35
  happens here.
• 30:36
  It's not always just about,
• 30:38
  oh,
• 30:38
  they just want power.
• 30:39
  Sometimes it is.
• 30:40
  Um,
• 30:40
  there's a lot of races there,
• 30:41
  and,
• 30:42
  and making these tough decisions is what parties
• 30:44
  and people who are funding these campaigns have to do.
• 30:47
  I,
• 30:47
  I've been arguing for a while.
• 30:49
  You gotta pull money out of Georgia,
• 30:50
  you gotta pull money out of North Carolina in the Senate.
• 30:52
  I just don't think those two are gonna happen.
• 30:54
  Look,
• 30:54
  do I want,
• 30:54
  uh,
• 30:55
  different results?
• 30:56
  Sure.
• 30:56
  But
• 30:57
  honestly,
• 30:58
  like,
• 30:58
  you have a limited amount of money
• 31:00
  and it needs to go into places like
• 31:02
  Texas,
• 31:02
  like
• 31:03
  Kansas,
• 31:04
  like
• 31:05
  Iowa,
• 31:06
  places,
• 31:06
  you're defending your front,
• 31:08
  and you have to understand,
• 31:09
  it's just like in a war,
• 31:10
  you have to understand where,
• 31:12
  what territory to defend
• 31:14
  and what territory to give up on.
• 31:16
  Because
• 31:16
  if you just say,
• 31:17
  we're gonna fight for everything all the time.
• 31:19
  You probably are in,
• 31:20
  uh,
• 31:21
  in big trouble,
• 31:22
  and you have to make smart decisions in these things,
• 31:24
  and they're difficult decisions because a lot of
• 31:25
  times these are people that you like,
• 31:27
  these are people that you think are good,
• 31:28
  would be good representatives.
• 31:29
  These are people that you've worked hard for,
• 31:31
  you,
• 31:32
  you know,
• 31:32
  worked twenty-hour days for,
• 31:34
  but at times you just have to understand and admit,
• 31:36
  maybe this one isn't gonna happen.
• 31:38
  So,
• 31:39
  a couple of races,
• 31:39
  a couple more like this,
• 31:40
  by the way,
• 31:41
  uh,
• 31:42
  Kristen McDonald Rivet
• 31:43
  versus Thomas J.
• 31:44
  Smith.
• 31:44
  This is in,
• 31:45
  uh,
• 31:45
  Michigan '08,
• 31:46
  another one mentioned in the article.
• 31:48
  This is what that market looks like.
• 31:50
  Um,
• 31:50
  and here it is.
• 31:51
  Uh,
• 31:51
  so basically,
• 31:53
  you know,
• 31:53
  Kristen McDonald Rivet is now,
• 31:54
  uh,
• 31:55
  with this,
• 31:55
  or it could be Reve.
• 31:56
  Let's give her some credit.
• 31:57
  Let's give her some like,
• 31:58
  Uh,
• 31:58
  a little
• 31:59
  attache.
• 32:00
  It's,
• 32:00
  uh,
• 32:01
  Kristen
• 32:02
  McDonald
• 32:03
  Reve.
• 32:04
  She's at 99.2%,
• 32:06
  uh,
• 32:06
  basically,
• 32:07
  seemingly to all,
• 32:08
  uh,
• 32:10
  belief that she's going to win
• 32:11
  that market.
• 32:12
  You see the,
• 32:12
  uh,
• 32:13
  the margin,
• 32:14
  uh,
• 32:14
  forecast there.
• 32:15
  This is from Kelsey.
• 32:16
  They are certainly
• 32:17
  looking at this data and seeing a 17 point margin,
• 32:20
  uh,
• 32:20
  according to,
• 32:21
  uh,
• 32:21
  polls and such,
• 32:22
  and their data.
• 32:22
  And then Nebraska 02 is another one.
• 32:24
  This is a race,
• 32:25
  uh,
• 32:25
  Don Bacon was the guy.
• 32:27
  This is now an open seat,
• 32:29
  um,
• 32:29
  and it looks like Republicans are basically giving up on this one
• 32:33
  as well.
• 32:34
  Um,
• 32:35
  uh,
• 32:35
  this is,
• 32:36
  uh,
• 32:37
  Harding,
• 32:37
  um,
• 32:38
  is at a,
• 32:39
  uh,
• 32:40
  a 7.2% chance that's the Republican,
• 32:42
  Brinker Harding.
• 32:43
  Uh,
• 32:43
  and Denise Powell
• 32:45
  at 93%.
• 32:46
  So there's not tons and tons of value.
• 32:48
  There is,
• 32:48
  there's a little bit of value in one of these races I want to point out to you
• 32:51
  here in just a moment.
• 32:52
  We'll do that for our candidate of the day in a second,
• 32:54
  but I also want to hit Elon Musk.
• 32:57
  What a journey for Elon Musk,
• 32:58
  right?
• 32:58
  Like this guy was a climate activist.
• 33:00
  This guy was a,
• 33:01
  I would say a
• 33:03
  center-left climate activist.
• 33:05
  The man built a car company and a space travel company.
• 33:10
  To avoid global warming,
• 33:12
  that is how he came into our lives,
• 33:14
  uh,
• 33:14
  I,
• 33:15
  I mean,
• 33:15
  PayPal before that,
• 33:16
  but that's generally how,
• 33:17
  that's been his life's goal.
• 33:19
  He wants us to be able to go to Mars to avoid the dangers of climate change.
• 33:22
  That's who the guy is.
• 33:24
  Fascinatingly,
• 33:25
  with all the other crazy stuff that the left tried throughout the 2020s,
• 33:28
  he came more to the right,
• 33:29
  as everyone remembers,
• 33:31
  and was a big supporter of Donald Trump.
• 33:32
  They then had a giant falling out.
• 33:35
  Uh,
• 33:35
  he was,
• 33:36
  they were accusing each other of being in the
• 33:37
  Epstein files or whatever was going on back then.
• 33:40
  He said he was never going to invest in politics again.
• 33:42
  If you are a conservative or a Republican,
• 33:44
  you'll be happy to hear he's,
• 33:45
  uh,
• 33:46
  he's given up on that,
• 33:46
  on that particular direction.
• 33:48
  Inside Elon Musk's $276 million
• 33:53
  midterm rescue mission for Republicans.
• 33:56
  This is a story from the New York Times,
• 33:58
  and they outline a lot of where he's been putting this.
• 34:00
  Now,
• 34:01
  he has given now $366 million
• 34:04
  during the 2025,
• 34:06
  2026 election cycle.
• 34:07
  $366 million now.
• 34:09
  Look at that number.
• 34:10
  It's more than he gave during the 2023,
• 34:12
  2024 cycle.
• 34:14
  Uh,
• 34:14
  he'd given $60 million is it 60?
• 34:17
  I can't read that.
• 34:17
  $90 million
• 34:18
  sorry,
• 34:19
  before,
• 34:19
  uh,
• 34:20
  this election cycle began before July 2026.
• 34:23
  And then since July 2026,
• 34:24
  in just a few months,
• 34:26
  he's given $276 million.
• 34:28
  Again,
• 34:29
  is this evil?
• 34:30
  Is he a bad guy?
• 34:31
  I don't believe so at all.
• 34:32
  And I'd say this for any,
• 34:33
  uh,
• 34:34
  billionaire who wants to dump their money into politics.
• 34:36
  I,
• 34:37
  you know,
• 34:37
  I might,
• 34:37
  don't,
• 34:38
  I might not like the
• 34:39
  goal of the money.
• 34:40
  Like,
• 34:40
  I might not,
• 34:41
  if you wanna raise taxes with that money,
• 34:43
  if you want to do all these crazy
• 34:44
  left-wing things that aren't my policy prescription,
• 34:47
  I might not like that,
• 34:47
  but
• 34:48
  it is your right to be able to spend your money how you want to spend it.
• 34:51
  I don't like this whole,
• 34:52
  you know,
• 34:53
  campaign finance reform thing.
• 34:54
  If you want to come in here and spend money on ads,
• 34:56
  you should be able to do that,
• 34:57
  uh,
• 34:58
  especially when you're advancing something that you
• 34:59
  think is important for the country.
• 35:01
  That being said,
• 35:01
  uh,
• 35:02
  us as voters have the right to just say,
• 35:04
  well,
• 35:04
  we don't believe that,
• 35:05
  you know,
• 35:06
  I,
• 35:06
  I mean,
• 35:06
  I don't know,
• 35:07
  we,
• 35:07
  we,
• 35:07
  we,
• 35:08
  we,
• 35:08
  we treat other voters like they're these
• 35:10
  morons that can't make decisions for themselves.
• 35:12
  Oh gosh,
• 35:12
  if they see too many ads,
• 35:14
  they might be fooled into voting one way or the other.
• 35:17
  Obviously,
• 35:17
  ads are run for a purpose.
• 35:18
  They're trying to convince you to persuade you to vote a a specific way,
• 35:22
  but it's up to you to actually go into the polls and,
• 35:25
  and vote,
• 35:25
  or,
• 35:26
  I don't know,
• 35:26
  uh,
• 35:27
  flippantly answer a piece of mail you got six weeks ago,
• 35:30
  whatever system you think is superior there.
• 35:33
  All that to say
• 35:34
  that Musk is really trying here.
• 35:36
  There are financial resources on the Republican side.
• 35:39
  This is probably the best case
• 35:42
  for Republicans.
• 35:43
  Can they shield off the worst outcomes here?
• 35:47
  If you're just running TV ads.
• 35:50
  It's probably not gonna be successful.
• 35:51
  The question is what kind of efforts are they putting in behind the scenes?
• 35:54
  I know Turning Point is big on this.
• 35:55
  They are really working hard in Arizona and other places,
• 35:58
  trying to get people out to vote.
• 36:00
  Uh,
• 36:00
  Elon Musk,
• 36:01
  uh,
• 36:01
  did a good job working on the turnout operation
• 36:04
  back in 2024.
• 36:05
  I'm sure he's involved in that again.
• 36:07
  But that's where you are,
• 36:08
  uh,
• 36:08
  right now.
• 36:08
  We need to take a break and come back here in just a second.
• 36:11
  That's where all the money is though.
• 36:12
  Uh,
• 36:13
  by the way,
• 36:13
  the other money is at senateFantassy.com.
• 36:15
  You can win,
• 36:15
  uh,
• 36:16
  money there,
• 36:17
  uh,
• 36:17
  by
• 36:17
  just predicting Senate races as part of a fun fantasy league.
• 36:21
  Uh,
• 36:21
  so you can check that out and go check out my TV show,
• 36:24
  Blazetv.com/Suan Dave Do America.
• 36:27
  That's available
• 36:28
  as well
• 36:29
  as part of your Blaze TV subscription,
• 36:30
  and we're on Blaze TV
• 36:31
  as well.
• 36:32
  Uh,
• 36:32
  we're happy to be,
• 36:33
  uh,
• 36:34
  excited,
• 36:34
  uh,
• 36:34
  to be on the Blaze TV team for not only Stu and Dave,
• 36:37
  but also here at Predictable
• 36:38
  as well.
• 36:39
  OK,
• 36:39
  more come,
• 36:40
  uh,
• 36:40
  here in just a moment.
• 36:41
  We're back in a second.
• 36:57
  Well,
• 36:57
  it is candidate countdown.
• 36:58
  We do one candidate every day in a race where you
• 37:00
  might be able to find a little bit of a value.
• 37:02
  I wanna kind of tie this into our previous segment.
• 37:05
  We were talking about the races where Republicans have,
• 37:09
  uh,
• 37:10
  pulled money out of these races because they don't think they're gonna win.
• 37:12
  The one I did not mention in here is going to be our candidate of the day.
• 37:15
  There's 21 days left
• 37:17
  until the midterms,
• 37:18
  um,
• 37:18
  and it's a race in uh,
• 37:20
  in,
• 37:20
  uh,
• 37:21
  in Iowa,
• 37:22
  uh,
• 37:22
  and the,
• 37:23
  uh,
• 37:23
  candidate is Christina Bohannon,
• 37:25
  the Democrat.
• 37:27
  From
• 37:28
  Iowa.
• 37:29
  She looks pleasant enough,
• 37:30
  doesn't she?
• 37:31
  Look at that.
• 37:31
  She,
• 37:32
  what could possibly go wrong?
• 37:33
  Um,
• 37:34
  she's up against,
• 37:34
  uh,
• 37:35
  Marion Miller Meeks,
• 37:36
  and that name might be familiar to you because she actually
• 37:39
  had one of the most dramatic elections in recent memory.
• 37:42
  I'll tell you about that in a second.
• 37:44
  Um,
• 37:44
  but
• 37:45
  she has won
• 37:46
  some really close elections.
• 37:48
  Uh,
• 37:48
  let me go through some of this here with you.
• 37:51
  She,
• 37:51
  she came within about 800 votes
• 37:54
  of,
• 37:54
  uh,
• 37:55
  this is Bohannon,
• 37:55
  came within 800 votes of beating
• 37:57
  Miller Meeks in 2024.
• 37:59
  So this is a,
• 38:00
  you wanna talk about a 50/50 type of race.
• 38:02
  This isn't one of those.
• 38:03
  This is a 50,
• 38:05
  49.8%
• 38:06
  type of race.
• 38:07
  In 2024,
• 38:08
  much better.
• 38:09
  Uh,
• 38:10
  environment,
• 38:10
  as we say,
• 38:11
  for,
• 38:12
  uh,
• 38:12
  the Republicans.
• 38:13
  She only won by 600 votes.
• 38:16
  The polling right now,
• 38:17
  um,
• 38:18
  I mean,
• 38:19
  by the way,
• 38:19
  Trump won that,
• 38:20
  uh,
• 38:20
  by about 88 points in that district.
• 38:23
  So she's kind of running south of where Trump was,
• 38:25
  and Trump has obviously had some tough times since then.
• 38:27
  Um,
• 38:28
  you know,
• 38:29
  the Cook,
• 38:29
  uh,
• 38:29
  Political Report,
• 38:30
  uh,
• 38:30
  has this race as a lean Democrat now.
• 38:33
  uh,
• 38:34
  Republicans are pulling their money out,
• 38:36
  as we discussed earlier,
• 38:38
  um.
• 38:40
  Bohannon has run
• 38:42
  a couple of times against.
• 38:44
  Meeks Miller,
• 38:46
  the previous two times,
• 38:47
  the first time she won by 6.8 points.
• 38:49
  The second time was
• 38:50
  0.2.
• 38:51
  That's how close that was.
• 38:52
  But that
• 38:53
  kind of forget,
• 38:54
  you forget about Meeks,
• 38:55
  um,
• 38:55
  uh,
• 38:56
  Miller and her original run,
• 38:58
  which was back in 2020,
• 38:59
  1 of the craziest elections ever.
• 39:02
  Um,
• 39:02
  November 3rd,
• 39:04
  she wins the election seemingly by 282 votes.
• 39:07
  So last time it was 600.
• 39:09
  The time,
• 39:09
  a couple of times before that it was 282 votes.
• 39:13
  She,
• 39:13
  uh,
• 39:14
  then there's a reporting error in the election results,
• 39:17
  which flips,
• 39:18
  uh,
• 39:18
  the lead to the,
• 39:19
  her opponent,
• 39:20
  Hart,
• 39:21
  at the time.
• 39:22
  It goes from,
• 39:23
  uh,
• 39:23
  Miller Meeks up by 282 to Hart up by 162.
• 39:28
  They continue to count.
• 39:30
  Uh,
• 39:30
  it goes up to 163 point,
• 39:32
  uh,
• 39:32
  vote lead
• 39:33
  for Hart,
• 39:34
  then narrows to 152.
• 39:36
  In,
• 39:37
  uh,
• 39:37
  on November 9th.
• 39:38
  November 10th through 12th,
• 39:40
  uh,
• 39:41
  another poll,
• 39:41
  uh,
• 39:42
  reporting problem
• 39:43
  puts Miller Meeks back ahead.
• 39:45
  She goes ahead by 32 votes,
• 39:47
  then she goes up by 40,
• 39:48
  then she goes up by 47.
• 39:50
  Then they get a recount.
• 39:53
  They,
• 39:53
  uh,
• 39:54
  go through that recount process.
• 39:57
  And eventually it narrows
• 39:59
  to,
• 40:00
  uh,
• 40:01
  a six-vote
• 40:02
  victory.
• 40:03
  196,964 to 196,958.
• 40:08
  That's the final total.
• 40:09
  Then,
• 40:10
  after all that,
• 40:12
  she basically gets blocked
• 40:14
  from entering Congress
• 40:16
  at the time by,
• 40:17
  uh,
• 40:18
  Democrats.
• 40:18
  She's not like available necessarily.
• 40:21
  Um,
• 40:22
  to vote in all of this.
• 40:24
  Uh,
• 40:24
  she eventually doesn't really get,
• 40:26
  uh,
• 40:27
  the challenge over with until March 31st of the next year.
• 40:31
  So that's who this person is,
• 40:33
  but this is a 50/50 district,
• 40:35
  and in this environment,
• 40:36
  it,
• 40:36
  it's really,
• 40:37
  really tough,
• 40:38
  and Republicans are seeing the writing on the wall.
• 40:39
  Now,
• 40:39
  the polling has not been that bad.
• 40:41
  We don't have any recent polling.
• 40:43
  But,
• 40:43
  uh,
• 40:44
  the last poll was Bohannon up by 5.
• 40:46
  There's another poll,
• 40:47
  uh,
• 40:47
  Bohannon up by 4.
• 40:49
  Miller Meeks in that same time period,
• 40:50
  we're talking back in the summer though,
• 40:52
  uh,
• 40:52
  she was up by 3 in one of those,
• 40:54
  uh,
• 40:54
  one of those polls.
• 40:54
  The,
• 40:55
  the bottom line here though,
• 40:56
  is Republicans aren't pulling money out of this race
• 40:59
  if they think they can win it.
• 41:01
  And they are seeing a lot of private polling.
• 41:03
  They believe they're down.
• 41:04
  They believe they're gonna lose this race.
• 41:06
  And that's why it's interesting as we saw in the markets.
• 41:08
  What,
• 41:08
  what's the market look like,
• 41:09
  Adam,
• 41:10
  uh,
• 41:10
  in this one,
• 41:11
  it's 89.
• 41:13
  8,
• 41:13
  uh,
• 41:13
  88,
• 41:14
  I think I got some at 88 here for Bohann and it's 889 right now.
• 41:17
  It's shot up though,
• 41:18
  pretty recently.
• 41:20
  Um,
• 41:20
  I missed a decent amount of that,
• 41:21
  uh,
• 41:22
  jump,
• 41:22
  but that is where it is right now.
• 41:24
  And I just think,
• 41:25
  when you think about the history of it being 50/50,
• 41:27
  this being a Democratic year
• 41:29
  might not be possible for Miller Meeks to hold on.
• 41:31
  OK,
• 41:31
  we're gonna have more for you in just a second.
• 41:48
  I do a segment called Here's one I Kinda like,
• 41:50
  and now I've expanded it to,
• 41:51
  here's one my producer kind of likes.
• 41:53
  Uh,
• 41:53
  this one in particular is interesting because
• 41:56
  I talked to Adam,
• 41:56
  who's our producer of the show,
• 41:57
  and he's,
• 41:58
  he's,
• 41:58
  he's a political nerd as well.
• 42:00
  He's always into politics,
• 42:01
  but he has very different interests than me outside of that.
• 42:03
  Not a huge sports fan,
• 42:05
  into a lot of like,
• 42:07
  I don't know,
• 42:08
  weird subcultures.
• 42:09
  Let's just call it,
• 42:09
  let's just call it that.
• 42:10
  That's all we can say about that.
• 42:11
  He's watching all sorts of strange movies that I've never heard of.
• 42:14
  He's reading books I've,
• 42:15
  I've never conceived of.
• 42:17
  And he'll just come bring these things up to me occasionally.
• 42:19
  I'm like,
• 42:19
  what'd you do this weekend?
• 42:20
  Oh,
• 42:20
  I read this book about this guy who swallowed a,
• 42:22
  or he got a whale that swallowed a guy.
• 42:25
  I'm like,
• 42:25
  what?
• 42:25
  What are you talking about?
• 42:26
  So
• 42:27
  he,
• 42:27
  I go,
• 42:28
  I,
• 42:28
  this is what I need from you on the show.
• 42:30
  I need you to be pitching me your weird culture thing so we can find markets
• 42:35
  and,
• 42:35
  and we can test your knowledge here.
• 42:37
  So he's got one for you and I want to pitch this to you.
• 42:39
  This,
• 42:40
  The story is this.
• 42:42
  Following the death of his father,
• 42:43
  Jay Gardiner goes diving off the coast of California in search of his remains.
• 42:46
  He soon finds himself in a desperate fight for
• 42:48
  survival when he's swallowed whole by a whale.
• 42:53
  Trapped inside his belly,
• 42:55
  it must figure out how to escape as his oxygen supply starts to run out.
• 43:00
  You might say,
• 43:00
  well,
• 43:01
  that sounds like a very bizarre book,
• 43:03
  and it was,
• 43:03
  apparently.
• 43:04
  This is the,
• 43:05
  uh,
• 43:05
  the,
• 43:05
  not the book cover,
• 43:06
  but
• 43:07
  the movie
• 43:08
  poster.
• 43:09
  Yes,
• 43:09
  it is coming out as a movie called Whale Fall.
• 43:14
  With the tagline,
• 43:15
  Hold your breath.
• 43:16
  And it comes out,
• 43:17
  I guess this weekend.
• 43:18
  Now,
• 43:18
  I hadn't heard anything about it,
• 43:19
  but there's a market for it cause there's a market for freaking everything.
• 43:22
  And there's a market,
• 43:23
  uh,
• 43:23
  on Calshi.
• 43:25
  Um,
• 43:26
  and I wanna bring this,
• 43:26
  uh,
• 43:27
  this,
• 43:27
  his case to you real quick.
• 43:28
  Massively hyped book.
• 43:30
  Everyone was talking about it.
• 43:32
  Lots of internet hype.
• 43:33
  Won some,
• 43:34
  uh,
• 43:34
  awards and,
• 43:34
  and,
• 43:35
  and such.
• 43:36
  Stars,
• 43:36
  this movie stars Austin Abrahams.
• 43:38
  He is a young actor,
• 43:39
  very popular right now,
• 43:40
  was in,
• 43:41
  uh,
• 43:41
  Weapons,
• 43:42
  Resident Evil recently,
• 43:43
  also Euphoria,
• 43:44
  The Walking Dead.
• 43:45
  He's been around.
• 43:46
  uh,
• 43:46
  Josh Brolin in it as well.
• 43:48
  Um,
• 43:48
  his case though,
• 43:49
  why it's going to suck.
• 43:50
  The book was severely overrated,
• 43:52
  was more of an internet trend
• 43:54
  than a novel that will stand the test of time.
• 43:57
  Uh,
• 43:57
  and unless they completely change the story,
• 43:59
  it's not going to translate very well to the film format.
• 44:01
  An uninspired director,
• 44:03
  these are not my words.
• 44:04
  If you're the director watching this right now and you're offended,
• 44:06
  that's Adam.
• 44:06
  He's saying that about you.
• 44:09
  Uh,
• 44:09
  he's only made a couple of movies nobody's heard
• 44:11
  of called Spontaneous and No One Will Save You.
• 44:14
  Uh,
• 44:14
  it is a strange premise and a stupid premise that doesn't seem,
• 44:18
  uh,
• 44:18
  like it has enough to fill in 1 hour and 45 minute movie.
• 44:22
  That one seems to connect with me.
• 44:24
  Um,
• 44:24
  so
• 44:25
  the current,
• 44:26
  uh,
• 44:26
  uh,
• 44:27
  real-time projection for Rotten Tomatoes
• 44:30
  on Calci,
• 44:31
  do we have that market by any chance,
• 44:33
  uh,
• 44:33
  pulled up?
• 44:33
  Here it is,
• 44:34
  77.5.
• 44:36
  If you scroll down,
• 44:37
  you can see different over and unders.
• 44:38
  You can go on this.
• 44:40
  Adam says he thinks it's gonna be below 71.
• 44:42
  Now,
• 44:43
  there's not a market for below 71.
• 44:44
  There's,
• 44:44
  well,
• 44:45
  there's above 70,
• 44:46
  so I guess you'd go no on that.
• 44:47
  Is it gonna be above 70?
• 44:48
  You go,
• 44:48
  no.
• 44:49
  You can get at 29% right now.
• 44:51
  So you can like triple your money
• 44:53
  on that one.
• 44:54
  Now,
• 44:54
  as I,
• 44:55
  I wanna be fair to Adam here.
• 44:56
  He did say he,
• 44:57
  he has absolutely no idea if he'll be right on this,
• 45:00
  but this is his case.
• 45:01
  And he read the book,
• 45:02
  by the way.
• 45:02
  It's not just like,
• 45:03
  oh,
• 45:03
  he's just
• 45:04
  judging it on the hype.
• 45:05
  He read the book,
• 45:06
  he was excited to read the book,
• 45:07
  and he thought the book sucked.
• 45:09
  So now they're turning it into a movie.
• 45:11
  The entire movie takes place
• 45:13
  inside
• 45:14
  of a whale.
• 45:17
  Does that sound like something?
• 45:18
  Now,
• 45:18
  critics are annoying,
• 45:19
  they might give it above a 71 case,
• 45:21
  but he's saying below 71,
• 45:23
  you wanna be a little bit less risky,
• 45:24
  you can go a little bit below a higher number.
• 45:26
  So that's what we have from Adam's perspective,
• 45:28
  whale fall
• 45:29
  under.
• 45:30
  All right,
• 45:30
  that's all the time we have.
• 45:31
  We'll be back uh with more on tomorrow's program.
• 45:33
  We'll see you then.