Latest / Best of Business / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson ahead of Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' of tariffs

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson ahead of Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' of tariffs · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk zed Be
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  Speaker 2: Shane Soli's with US Harbor Ethnet Management Shane Good Evening.
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  Speaker 2: Get it right, Hey, Donald Trump, We've got Liberation Day
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  Speaker 2: coming April second, so we're just a few days away. Now,
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  Speaker 2: what do we know? What can we say that we
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  Speaker 2: know about the tariffs that are potentially coming our way?
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's a really good point. So euphormisticly Liberation Day,
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  Speaker 3: some pretty chunky increases in twists Canada, Mexico and China
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  Speaker 3: and potentially what they call in the Duty fifteen a
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  Speaker 3: bunch of companies there for more than fifteen percent of
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  Speaker 3: persistent trade surpluses for the US. Look for New zeand
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  Speaker 3: it's a risk, right, We're not directly in the targets
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  Speaker 3: of the US towers, but we are exposed to this
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  Speaker 3: trade disruption, including this reciprocal trade tarfts, and so we
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  Speaker 3: think we're already potentially seeing that slowing pace of recovery
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  Speaker 3: and New zeal economy reflects some of this weariness around
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  Speaker 3: tarras businesses holding back For us is that we get
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  Speaker 3: caught up in the middle of a global trade war. Look,
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  Speaker 3: we're going to find out on Wednesday night in news
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  Speaker 3: eon time. We know that there's lots of room for
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  Speaker 3: movement between now and then. Ryan, this is a trade
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  Speaker 3: negotiation done by mister Trump. There's lots of things that
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  Speaker 3: could move. So that's hard to be definitive, but we
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  Speaker 3: are facing a bit of a headpoint.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, what is the head we're going to do to
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  Speaker 2: growth forecasts?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think particularly the US, we've already seen a
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  Speaker 3: number of forecasts dial back their growth reflecting this tariffs
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  Speaker 3: and also the government spending push by the Trump government.
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  Speaker 3: So we have seen growth forecasts drop from around five
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  Speaker 3: percentage where they currently are to out the next few
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  Speaker 3: years right down sort of med fours, and so we
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  Speaker 3: are seeing that being a risk for US economic activity.
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  Speaker 3: There's a little bit of an offset globally. Certainly we're
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  Speaker 3: seeing Europe and China announcing spending increases by their governments,
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  Speaker 3: and we've seen a bit of a lifting activity there.
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  Speaker 3: But certainly there's a risk to global growth from this
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  Speaker 3: US economy coming off what's been a pretty strong run.
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  Speaker 2: We've had the A and Z Business Outlooks Survey for
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  Speaker 2: the month of March out today what are we hearing
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  Speaker 2: from that?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, you know again with slightly more business confidence
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  Speaker 3: is okay and new zeone we have seen it sort
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  Speaker 3: of hold up at positive levels, suggesting there's a bit
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  Speaker 3: of a this gradual recovery we're seeing ZE on it's
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  Speaker 3: likely to continue, certainly not all positive. There's an investment
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  Speaker 3: in employment intentions a bit of a slip, and pricing
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  Speaker 3: intentions going up, so that's something that the bank will
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  Speaker 3: be watching for. But this sort of lead indicator, we're
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  Speaker 3: seeing enough positivity coming through and own activity that's the
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  Speaker 3: real gauge of how do you can give out your
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  Speaker 3: own business? Your own activity That actually increased four points
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  Speaker 3: to plus forty nine, so not quite fifty fifty is
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  Speaker 3: where we want to see growth, but we're getting back
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  Speaker 3: to it.
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  Speaker 2: This is obviously the last day of the March quarter.
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  Speaker 2: How are capital markets responding. We've got increased uncertainly globally,
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  Speaker 2: which you've touched on. We've got the potential trade terroriffts,
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  Speaker 2: but we've also got the geopolitical situation. How our capital
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  Speaker 2: markets is bawning?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been a pretty pretty rugged quarter. We certainly
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  Speaker 3: seen to invest a risk tolerance for as these low
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  Speaker 3: of growth for quests to come through. So some of
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  Speaker 3: the high risk high growth as it's like, for example,
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  Speaker 3: Shares Tumak of the generally forms what the defensive assets
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  Speaker 3: have done, but better probably the interesting ones of things
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  Speaker 3: like the US dollar is this thing called the d
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  Speaker 3: x ys US Dollar Index. It's fallen from one hundred
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  Speaker 3: and eight at the end of December to one hundred
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  Speaker 3: and four hours, so about four percent. You're kind of
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  Speaker 3: a big deal. That's where people park their money when
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  Speaker 3: they want to be saved. But what has really performed
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  Speaker 3: Ryan's goal up almost seventeen or actually eighteen percent to
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  Speaker 3: just add three one hundred US prorouns. That just shows
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  Speaker 3: how anxious investors are, our worried about this global setting.
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  Speaker 3: They've gone back to the og defensive asset, so quite
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  Speaker 3: a big spring. We've gone from markets pricing and perfection
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  Speaker 3: at the end of December to markets pricing and a
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  Speaker 3: degree of chaos at the end of March.
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  Speaker 2: Interesting, Shane, Thank you very much for that. Shane, Sally
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  Speaker 2: Harbor Esset Management with us on your Monday evening.
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