Latest / Kinesis Money / Gold Breakout! The Gold Reserve Race Has Started - LFTV Ep 285

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Gold Breakout! The Gold Reserve Race Has Started - LFTV Ep 285 · Kinesis Money

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Now we've seen these Midsummer structures play out before, but global gold has never experienced such strong Midsummer central bank support.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: All right, welcome to Live from the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: And as you can see, this week I'm out of the vault.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: I'm in Moldova.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: And but we're certainly glad that you've joined us here.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: Life from the Vault, as you know, is the show that goes way beyond the headlines to uncover the truth about the precious metals industry.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: And joining us today is Kinesis's very own world-renowned whistleblower and precious metals industry expert, Andrew McGuire.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: And this week we'll be answering more questions from you, the Live from the Vault community.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: So keep those questions coming in.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: By the way, just look below there and click on the link in the description.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: And you never know, your question may well be chosen for Andrew to answer right here on Live from the Vault.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: So let's head over to the UK and talking gold with Andrew McGuire.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: All right, Andrew.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: You know, last episode, only two weeks ago, you know, we recorded this episode just before the July month end uh gaming that you warned, you know, you warned the synthetic market overshoot was set to backfire in August.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: And now as August unfolds, the bearish paper leverage is coiling uh with the bullish physical demand.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, with gold$450 higher and$9.50 higher on the silver, just as you predicted.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I quote, look, this is what exactly what you said, Andrew.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: You said, just when most don't expect it, a physically driven rally is expected to take hold into the thin August holiday liquidity.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: That's what you said two weeks ago.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: And well, that's just exactly what happened here.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: And as you say, you know, when least expected.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: And so can you tell us uh, you know, is this breakout sustainable here?
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and and where does this lead, you know, gold and silver, both in the short and longer term, Andrew?
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, thanks, Shane.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for the questions, guys.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, great to be with you all.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, let's um let's have a really good look at everything.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but I mean, that call actually wasn't very difficult.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and it yes, it's playing out nicely.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but ideally, not too fast.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: With you know, with a we need a few constructive pullbacks, which we actually just got.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: We're recording this on Wednesday, and we just had uh CPI, and you know, you always expect that kind of stuff, which is healthy.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and what the reason we want don't want it just to go straight up, we don't want to present too many sell ignition, too much cell ignition fuel for the very, very wrong-footed uh commodity trading advisors who'd bet heavily against goal just before it broke out.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now, sustainable rallies require some constructive periods of consolidation.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Small pullbacks are healthy.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: Later on, we're gonna look at the next month's third quarter and end of fourth quarter targets.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's gonna be really interesting, and you'll be amazed.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: Spoiler alert, here are the unchanged beginning of the year.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Minimum, 6,000 are still on, and we also look at the reasons$8,000 will become magnetic.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: So let's look sequentially at the footprints that followed the short-term bearish action into month end Bank of International uh uh uh BIS squaring.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you remember that's because the Fed has to square um leased positions at the end of each month and they mark them to market, they try and do it as low as possible.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: And we just recorded it literally a day before that.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: And these were these these footprints were colliding with very, very large T plus one delivery, 400-ounce bar outflows into the Hong Kong, the recently launched Hong Kong SGE hub, which has been underestimated.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: I've seen podcasts out there where they say this won't make any difference.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's beyond the beyond believable how how much of a difference this is making, because this is further compressing the bearish paper versus physical uh physical golding gold spring, which was not factored in.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Now, while the bearish paper market action into the end of July emboldened these commodity trading advisor shorts, they, along with an array of mainstream media commentators, got the wrong message until just as the trading desks thinned out and the Hamptons holiday homes started filling up last Wednesday.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: The underestimated Hong Kong SGE physically driven upside breakout commenced, blind siding them.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now we've seen these midsummer structures play out before, but global gold has never experienced such strong midsummer central bank support.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: And this only lists official purchases, not the much larger unreported monetary gold accumulations that we've been reporting for quite some time.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the most likely scenario was exactly what we've just experienced.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: A whale-sized physically driven rally has now been triggered.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: And the bullish case for August continues to rest on a tightening physical market, accelerating eastern price discovery, uh, sustained bank and sovereign accumulations, shrinking LBMA 400 ounce liquidity, and the widening disconnect between leveraged paper selling and real deliverable physical demand.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now, as this divergence becomes harder to ignore, mainstream analysts are likely to recognize that the current weakness was not a bearish trend, but a sprinkler-loaded event ahead of really what is going to become physical repricing.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: They are not onto the physical repricing yet, but they will be.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the gold breakout commenced because, and this is the key, the reserve race has started.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: Mainstream media, once again, are chasing gold's breakout after the fact, blaming Iran's headlines, uh, rate cuts, hopes.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um, that's just noise.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: The real driver is a much bigger structural shift.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Central banks and sovereigns are cutting exposure to ballooning US dollar debt and racing into first-tier physical gold.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's that simple.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: Japan provided the warning shot.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: It needs cash to defend a weakening currency, but selling too much of its more than 1.1 uh trillion treasury stack, what it does is risks putting the US yields, pushing them the US yields higher and marking down the reserve it's still reserves it still holds.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's quite the condition.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: That is the Treasury trap.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: And every major US dollar creditor can see it.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the Financial Times had already flagged the key point, which is Washington does not want foreign central banks freely using their dollar reserves if that destabilizes US markets.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: The translation of that is the dollar reserve asset is no longer as freely usable as advertised.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Once that message lands, reserve diversification accelerates.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: There's only one scalable, neutral, zero county party reserve asset outside of the sovereign debt system: physical gold, not paper promises, not another issue as liability, first-tier deliverable gold.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why the gold repatriation trend, the expanding Hong Kong SGE corridor, Laos's moved towards physically anchored price discovery, and South Korea's first central bank gold purchase in 13 years.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: All of these things matter.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: These are not isolated headlines, they're just a few visible confirmation signals of a much wider gold dedollarization move, which was actually seeing this expand into Singapore, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Africa, Latin America.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: What it's also doing is sucking in unfactored Western participation as the global-facing SGE vortex gathers momentum.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: And as we drew attention to last time, the Laos integration was especially important because it marked the Southeast Asia's first clear move away from paper-diluted cash-settled LBMA fixes and towards the Hong Kong SGE architecture and its physically determined HAU price ticker, which is physically determined.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: And this is how true physical price discovery starts to migrate east, corridor by corridor, exchange by exchange, and sovereign by sovereign.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: The race is actually now on.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: And more recently, South Korea, as I say, announced its first gold purchase in 13 years.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: Citing what do they cite?
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: Persistent geopolitical risks.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: They decided gold's role as an inflation hedge.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: Goodness me, I mean, this is seems like this is too old school and its potential as an alternative to the US dollar.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: But this is not the signal.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: Central banks and sovereigns are not waiting for permission.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: They're cutting exposure to ballooning US dollar debt and racing into first-tier physical gold.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Gold is not breaking out because of short-term headlines, it's breaking out because the reserve system is changing right beneath the surface.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: US dollar debt is ballooning, treasure liquidity is constrained, and sovereign reserve managers are moving toward the only asset that carries no issuer risk, physical gold.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, against this backdrop of 100% gold-backed Yuan RMB, it's no coincidence that Project Embridge is now being brought into a global focus.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we've been looking at this for some years, it's process.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's front and center.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: And what it's doing is broadening the cross-border payment network that already includes the PBOC, Hong Kong, Thailand, United Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's just basically a ballooning from that base, which is well established.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: And a quick reminder of what actually Embridge is and how under the radar, alongside the PBOC, who is clearly aggressively accumulating gold, Embridge is the settlement infrastructure that facilitates a gold-backed or gold reference to an so it's practical at scale.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: And it allows China and its trading partners to move RMB cross-border quickly and outside the dollar control rails.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: And while gold provides the credibility, collateral, and the trust anchor to all of those transactions.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: Together, Embridge and physical gold strengthen the Yuan's role as a trade settlement currency and it increases gold's influence in the emerging non-dollar monetary system.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: So Embridge internationalizes the Yuan by with plumbing, not politics.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: This is not political.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: It creates a faster, cheaper, central bank grade cross-border payment system, simply bypasses the dollar-dominated, denominated correspondent banking rails.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: A gold-backed or gold reference RMB becomes a more far more credible if it can settle instantly across borders.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: Gold provides the trust anchor for this.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: Enbridge provides the payment infrastructure.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: So really it's just a perfect marriage.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: And it strengthens the appeal of RMB for trade settlement amongst countries that really just want to reduce their dollar exposure but still need confidence in final settlement value and its liquidity.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: Gold becomes the neutral collateral behind a new payment architecture.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: It's that simple.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: Trade partners can settle in RMB through Enbridge while referencing physical gold reserves and Shanghai pricing and physical gold liquidity, then gain more influence.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's a serendipitous uh relationship.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: And the link, what it does is links digital settlement to hard asset credibility.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this is so cutting edge.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: The RB becomes not just a state-issued currency, but a gold-supported trade unit moving through a non-dollar payment network.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: And there's nothing that anyone can do to stop it.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: The strategic impact is de-dollarization.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: Mbridge reduces dependence on SWIFT, on the correspondent banking, while gold reduces dependence on US Treasury collateral and dollar confidence.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: So, bottom line, the race into first-tier gold has already started.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: The market is only just beginning to price it in.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: And now, in preparation for the wider SGE global corridor rollout, China is consolidating Hong Kong's role, anchoring gold trading around physical bullion, official sector flows, and Asia-based price discovery, directly challenging London's LBMA model.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: And the PPOC is shifting reserves from London to Hong Kong, building local inventories, backing a new clearing system and benchmark, and inviting other central banks, especially the Belt and Road nations, to participate, and which they are doing.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: This gives Hong Kong credibility as a physically backed gold hub.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: And by contrast, London's dominance rests heavily on unallocated, opaque, leveraged, and largely cash settled over-the-counter trading.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: And as central banks increasingly prioritize allocated metal, sovereign custody and physical settlement, then what happens then is price discovery gravitates towards hubs where real bullion is available.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you're wondering where our global facing first-tier liquidity provider assessments of six to eight thousand dollar gold comes from, the structural implications are as clear as a bell.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: Hong Kong is being positioned as China's physical gold price setting center, while the LBMA's paper-based dominance becomes progressively less relevant.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: This was not factored in, and it's not factored in to any major pricing models.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: And and and this doesn't, it does it doesn't come without a cartel pushback attempt, though.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: As we'll look at that's simply what that does is provide opportunities and also helpfully flush out uh there'll be a lot of longs coming in now who are naked long.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: And every now and again it's good just to see them knocked out before it becomes a great big gap to click to ignite.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_00: So as China uh shifts the uh the center of price discovery eastward, COMEX is doubling down on paper trading, failing to recognize that the resulting arbitrage fallout will only accelerate the loss of its remaining dwindling client base.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: Now, in our last episode, we examined COMEX rollout of 24-hour trading, one-ounce gold futures, and why that initiative is likely to fail.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: Now London appears poised to commit the final act of paper market Harry Curry, depending really on paper, all that's doing is deepening the very imbalance it is trying to conceal, which is the rollout of London's tokenized gold push.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: That is an attempted digital upgrade to an unreformed, unregulated, unallocated paper-gold market.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: And unlike, unless the the LBMA and UK regulators fix the over-the-counter market core weakness, which is cash settlement over physical delivery, opaque unallocated claims, and unresolved rehypothecation risks, tokenization will not restore trust at all.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: It'll really make, it'll just make existing leverage faster and more efficient to the detriment of the LBMA.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: And that is the strategic flaw.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: Shanghai and Hong Kong are offering a cleaner proposition that is one-to-one physically backed deliverable metal.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if London cannot prove that tokenized gold is a direct audited and enforceable claim on specific bullion, its digital framework will fail.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_00: And the trust test, now pulling gold liquidity towards physically settled Asian markets, is going to literally bash up against it.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_00: And it'll be like pushing on a string.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: And right on queue, JP Morgan appears right on the scene.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's drill down into their attempt to keep paper gold trading alive.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: This is these are desperate pushback attempts.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: Now, while it's impossible for JP Morgan to hide the bullish change in gold's behavior, it should be questioned as to why they suggest, and here's the quote ways of gaining upside exposure without buying gold outright.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: Really?
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um this is uh this is the same actor where we've got decades of irrevocable hard evidence that through massive position concentration, market makers and the feds primary dealer JP Morgan is attempting to keep gold synthetically contained.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it it's it's it's hard, it's it it's it's hard, uh it's hard to even look at this objectively.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why JP Morgan encouragement of synthetic upside potential that should be viewed as less than neutral market strategy, and more as an attempt to manage the form of bullish participation that they can manage.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: Physical gold demand removes metal from the system and tightens the float.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: By contrast, synthetic gold demand creates dealer-managed exposure that can be diluted, capped, rolled, expired, or hedged against.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, have we seen that story before?
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: For a primary, I mean, this is a primary dealer and dominant market maker with a significant derivatives footprint.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: The incentive is so obvious that concede the bullish story publicly.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: Oh yeah, how can you ignore it?
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: But keep the expression that uh that this bullishness, keep it inside a structure that the house can intermediate and where possible suppress.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, just drill down a little and hidden in plain sight, JP Morgan has been wrong footed, not on their own house position, because it's long and strong, but on the float they handle for the Fed.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_00: Primary dealer.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: The CFTZ, CFTC's own reporting framework shows that bank and swap dealer positioning is not a sideshow in gold at all.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: It is a central, it's essential to price formation.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_00: The latest publicly available COT data show managed money adding length into a rally while the swap dealers absorb the flow by deepening a large net short position against them.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: So, to sum that up, gold's bullish turn is already visible on the tape.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: We've got higher flaws, resilient dips, rising retail interest, expanding call open interest.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_00: Come on, JP McMorgan cannot hide that shift.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_00: So the strategy.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: is to control how investors express it.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: And rather than encouraging outside physical buying, JP Morgan steers demand into options, core spreads, synthetic COMEX structures where dealers they are the dealers, writing the exposure, hedging the flow, capping rallies, and managing expiry outcomes.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: So so really in in short, the bullish gold story is being conceded publicly, but it's just one more attempt to contain rallies synthetically.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: Now all I'm saying is be careful that while the physically blacked Hong Kong SGE HAU contract is steadily arbitraging underpriced CME diluted CMA spot gold, it only takes one bid pulled thin condition raid, which we've seen intermonth ends, we've seen it constantly it only takes one to take out synthetic structures while in the larger picture physical gold continues to reset higher.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: So be very careful if you're playing in the game they've set up for you to play in.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: Hey Andrew, we're getting a lot of questions here from our viewers and one common theme that I'm noticing is uh they're looking for your views on the shorter term uh in these markets.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah and and that that is important.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: Um so I mean very short term I guess let's look at the changing narrative starting with an interesting analysis from analysis from Deutsche Bank.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: So this is more of the uh same really but it's it's it's different in a sense because it actually has have a lot of people thinking so they came out um along with Goldman Sachs JP Morgan and every other single bank they're all long for their own books.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: We know that so when Deutsche Bank comes out and makes an assessment we need to look at what they're really trying to say.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_00: What's interesting about these public facing targets is that really is why they are grossly underpriced by these insiders and I I've got here uh Deutsche Bank headline analysis maintained a longstanding forecast for gold to average 4,600 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026 before rising to an annual average of 5,100 in 2027 to 542 in 2028.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the problem's analysis while it is useful it remains anchored in historical price inputs generated in a predominantly paper driven market structure.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_00: Those price inputs um reflect decades of unallocated leverage and cash settle price formation where synthetic supply diluted physical scarcity and suppressed price discovery that makes the bank's lower price extrapolation structurally flawed because they assume the old pricing regime remains the correct reference point which it is not.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: Post Pasel III and now through physically settled venues such as Hong Kong and Shanghai gold exchange the market is shifting towards settlement deliverability and real demand clearing real physical supply demand clearing and and as as this synthetic dilution loses influence and physical availability matters more forecast prices will have to reset substantially higher while paper derived downside scenarios will just become increasingly obsolete.
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_00: Gold's breakout is being driven by a ship shift from rate sensitive liquidation back to structural accumulation led by Chinese demand, technical buying central bank support and renewed monetary debasement hedging also lower oil prices have eased inflation and rate fears it's less important because we've seen the mechanical dislocations anyway and that's reducing pressure on real yields and lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold so really shame I think to drill down into that question a little more deeply and to answer these subscriber questions on what to expect in the shorter term.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_00: Let's pop in to the live charts and track the very short term footprints.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: So picking up from where we were on July the 29th which was just before the BIS squaring event that mark to market event gold has broken out above key technical resistances quickly gaining its 50 day moving average which triggered some short a layer of shortstop and moving through what was really a previously capped 4100 to 4200 congestion zone.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_00: And that's triggered the first real layer of CTA commodity trading advisor algo buying and short covering now as summed up nicely by Goldman again recorded here by Zero Hedge China has re-engaged as a major buyer with Shanghai open interest jumping sharply Chinese gold ETF inflows extending and an upsurge of physical demand forcing commercials and and this is our take forcing commercials exposed to T plus one delivery 400 ounce bar outflows on the long side of capping events.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: Now into these physically driven inputs gold and we're looking at the futures chart here has short squeezed itself out of a six week capped range and this was really six weeks of capping pretty much at this level here and as we expected at the time and did stay there would be very little once we broke through that there would be very little in the way of the a good hard test of the 430 intact bull pivot confluence which looked to be constructively consolidating.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: A brief period of consolidation around current levels which is around this level here would actually be preferable however the 4592382 fiber is potentially it looks extremely compelling and and it's really there's a lot of um technical analysis that we could go through but these fiber ranges are absolutely what institutionals are looking at and certainly that's not suggesting that you have to trade those on a 10 minute chart the a four hour chart is pretty much the best view of this.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now with the SGEHAU physical fixes increasingly arbitraging London spot liquidity providers assessed that larger stops around the 462710 official intervention level that was if you remember Bank of International Settlements was squared and it was squared below the previous level and that where the intervention came in ultimately giving them an opportunity to close a lot of these bets at the lowest level that they could possibly do it thereafter.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_00: So this 29th of May short stops they remain vulnerable to an upside breach potentially opening the way to the 478810 50% retracement fiber.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: And that's just along the way you can see this was definitely a capped area.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: With the driven by strong Shanghai physical premiums driving actionable HAU LBMA fixes here literally arbitraging those differences Spot Gold has now fixed for three days at its highest level since the 5th of June which is this little shoulder here.
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_00: And the usual insider attempts to hunt out low-hanging buy and sell stops in today's CPI lease release were par for the course and what happened was we saw a hunt for long stops below what is the spot adjusted 100 day moving average and then what we what did we see?
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_00: We saw an exact test of the gold futures 200 day moving average where another layer of shortstops exist.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: So what we're saying is central bank demand and fiscal debasement fears underpin the core bull market anchor reinforcing the review that dips towards 4000 to 4100 had consistently been bought and so this entire time the attempts to get it below backfired.
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_00: However liquidity providers now assess that a higher institutionally supported stair step is aggregating between 4200 and 4300 and view any such dips back into the 4300 level as extremely viable.
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now this is rising this support is rising and it does actually suggest now institutional support is above the 50 day moving averages have now settled at around about 4380.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_00: So the imminently upturning 50 day moving average because it was it had been downsloping for quite some time should now provide strong very strong dip support as it rises up through and as indicated on this chart here from the market ear platform gold is increasingly coupling from mechanical correlations rising despite stronger equities and higher yields now in typical form trying to pinned gold's rally on Iran peace headlines and rate cut hopes the previously bearish skewed mainstream media is after the fact and again after the fact once again chasing the reason why gold suddenly broke out of its six week consolidation range.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's just more retrofitted noise.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_00: The real story is far bigger deeper and far more bullish.
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: It's a physically driven race out of ballooning US dollar debt into first tier gold this is not about one geopolitical headline or the next Fed rate cut it's about the world's largest reserve holders all at once waking up to the same problem sovereign debt is exploding.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: US dollar reserves are becoming harder to use and the only clean escape route into zero kind of party risk physical gold and silver that is your only escape route and that's true for all of us silver is also displaying the same bullish inputs both short and longer term there's a couple of links here which I thought were worth sharing again from uh Marketeer they it broke through its 64 resistance uh again now we're looking at the next resistance at 68 well that isn't going to be long before it gets preached because the 200 is coming to view and guess who missed it?
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: The speculators they got out just before the squeeze was hired.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now that was absolutely orchestrated by the commercials 100% we talked about it before so basically what we're looking at now is the move above the 50 and we agree that bigger resistance comes through at about 72 which is the 200 day moving average actually we can adjust that a little to what it really should be.
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_00: And if we scroll down to where the moving averages are now the reason I've got I've got two two 200 day moving averages here.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_00: The reason I put both in is because silver is basically trading as an expiring futures contract.
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_00: So it should be trading at par.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_00: However the spot adjusted number and a spot really that determines the real price this is purely synthetic.
• 34:55
  SPEAKER_00: The spot price is actually 7174.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_00: So yes in round number 72 but that is and that's rising every day a little but essentially a breach of that and we're going to see probably some foot stamping on an attempt at 7071 but I think we're going to see some also buying coming through at the 100 day moving average which is what we saw in gold right here.
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_00: So silver's breakout is gaining reinforcement from positioning systematic flows and options demand we see some light managed money positioning very very small and they've only just started to get back in leaves lots of room for fresh fun buying to extend the rally and we have dollar weakness and silver's divergence point to really further catch up potential so we're seeing CTA short covering and renewed core buying it's all adding fuel to the move and much like we looked at the Fibonacci retracements this is also a determinant of the daily spot chart which is basically 6484 and we're going to likely see 7587.
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_00: A close a pit close above the 7174 200 day moving average with strength and confirmation and will accelerate upside momentum you'd be amazed how quickly silver can rise and one thing that we ought to point out is that people are talking about the lease rates and not reflecting a tight market.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_00: Well but what it is is while paper market unallocated short covering means London lease rates do not yet fully reflect emerging physical tightness because of cash settlement strong physically settled global demand should quickly arbitrage the paper squaring lag and rapidly tighten the loco London float.
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_00: Recording this on Wednesday and today silver driven by by close 12.75 close to 13% Shanghai silver premiums and Chinese ETF reengagement spots silver just fixed at its highest level since the 17th of June in very strong physical demand.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_00: So while on silver let's look at what to expect as institutional refiner and hedging flows migrate into the Hong Kong SGE trading hub architecture silver is also benefiting from gold's physical settlement structure leaching silver out of the LBMA cartel ring fence we experienced$10 downside intraday moves in silver as the price reset closer to physical demand places that were prices that was on the way down now$10 intraday upside moves will simply accelerate and move above the 200 day moving average after which don't rule out a very quick rinse of shortstop layers ultimately resulting in a doubling of current synthetically influenced prices into$140 by the end of the fourth quarter silver continues to look extremely attractive at current prices.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: And as we opened with and we talked about$6,000 gold and we talked about$8,000 gold and essentially what we're seeing here it is unfactored the difference that a physical settlement and the arbitrage flows between the HAU after it was launched versus the gold fixes has forced commercials and those making markets and the fixes have to be NSFR compliant at the fix forced them to raise the bid and that is why our liquidity providers global facing liquidity providers see such a dramatic move higher that we do expect six thousand dollar gold and eight thousand dollar gold potentially into the end of the fourth quarter.
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_00: So this is not pie in the sky we've seen a full retracement we've seen a full settlement and a lot of this happened very close to the 38250 and now we are now looking at a potential move higher there is nothing here to stop a gold rising and of course we expect healthy pullbacks along the way and we would view any pullback into the 30 the high 38s to be bargain territory so I'll leave it at that other than to say gold and silver are extremely attractive at current prices and dips look very appealing to buy well that's what we see into the August breakout rally so the only question left to ask is how prepared are you for the next debasement leg of your fiat currency to actually unwind?
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: Central banks and sovereigns have openly stepped up swapping depreciating dollar related fiat for physical gold and silver I personally know many of our subscribers you our subscribers are doing exactly that.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_00: The only question is are you all doing it?
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_01: All right that wraps up another episode of Live from the vault brought to you by Kinesis Money and a big thank you to Andrew McGuire for sharing his deep market knowledge and also to you for tuning in and being a part of this growing global community.
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_01: Now if you're new here make sure that you subscribe just hit that subscribe link right there tap on the bell so you'll be the first to know as soon as we go live and if you've been with us a while keep help spreading the word uh by giving us a like right there hit that like button share this episode with someone who really needs to hear this information and get your questions into Andrew McGuire because you never know your question may well be selected for the next episode of Live from the vault.
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_01: And with that we'll be back next week with more truth that you just won't find on the mainstream media and until then bye physical make sure it's backed one to one and we'll see you right here next time on Live from the vault.
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_01: Bye for now