Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / Putin, Armenia & Germany Energy Crisis | Pipelines, Ukraine Funding & Global Power Shift

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Putin, Armenia & Germany Energy Crisis | Pipelines, Ukraine Funding & Global Power Shift · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

• 0:00
  Hello, good morning. Welcome. I am
• 0:03
  Samuel Trap. This is International
• 0:05
  Flavor. You are listening to Dam Radio.
• 0:10
  You can always listen to us
• 0:11
  damradio.com/live.
• 0:13
  You can always get uh beautiful podcast
• 0:16
  versions of all the content on this
• 0:19
  wonderful station. If you just go to
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  damradio.com/mpodcast.
• 0:26
  Now, if you just like to get
• 0:28
  international flavor, you can do that at
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  internationalflavor.com.
• 0:32
  You can do civicoutlaws at
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  civicoutlaws.com/mpodcast.
• 0:36
  And uh that is the name of that tune.
• 0:41
  So,
• 0:43
  you know, I got a list of things to talk
• 0:45
  about. Uh I I I watched a interview,
• 0:48
  well, not an interview, press conference
• 0:50
  of U. Pashinan who's the leader of
• 0:53
  Azerbaijan and u or I'm sorry Armenia
• 0:57
  sorry they were talking about Azerbaian
• 0:59
  so he's from Armenia and Vladimir Putin
• 1:01
  and it was kind of an interesting back
• 1:03
  and forth how they this is a uh you know
• 1:05
  you don't see it all too often but this
• 1:07
  one was two uh very gifted politicians
• 1:12
  uh
• 1:14
  this is this is how do I want to put
• 1:16
  this is a professional fight this is a
• 1:19
  professional boxing match act, right?
• 1:21
  And and it's not calling people names.
• 1:24
  It's not, you know, you're an idiot, you
• 1:27
  know, it's none of that. This was this
• 1:29
  was smooth on both sides and pretty
• 1:31
  subtle. And both of them telling Putin
• 1:34
  saying, "Well, you know, you're really
• 1:35
  screwing up." And uh uh the Armenian guy
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  uh I got it here, but I've switched
• 1:44
  screens and I can't remember his name
• 1:46
  and I don't want to mispronounce it. and
• 1:48
  or and so he he pushed right back and
• 1:52
  and it was a good impact. And then I've
• 1:54
  got a couple other things that I've gone
• 1:55
  through uh over the over the evening,
• 1:58
  but I was hit by something else this
• 1:59
  morning and getting prepared. Uh and and
• 2:03
  this kind of jumped right the hell out
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  at me. And this was on the hill and I
• 2:10
  don't think I can get the entire
• 2:13
  story of it. I wonder if it'll let me if
• 2:16
  it makes you log in to get the whole
• 2:18
  Yeah, you got to register to get the
• 2:20
  whole thing. You don't get the whole um
• 2:24
  you don't get the entire story until you
• 2:27
  become a member, you know, until several
• 2:29
  days later, but the basics of it uh are
• 2:34
  as this. there was a leak in the Supreme
• 2:36
  Court
• 2:38
  and uh that
• 2:42
  comes up with some more ammunition. And
• 2:45
  here there's a video on it from Fox
• 2:47
  News. I'm not going to play it, but uh
• 2:50
  there are leaked memos in the Supreme
• 2:52
  Court and the the Hill is who put it
• 2:56
  out, but I don't have a membership and
• 2:58
  I'm not going to do it right now. I
• 2:59
  might do it eventually, but I'm not
• 3:01
  going to do it until it actually Yeah,
• 3:03
  you got to sign up to get it. Bunch of
• 3:05
  a-holes. But, uh, you can't even get the
• 3:07
  entire story. So,
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  uh, I'm going to give you the summarized
• 3:13
  version, but basically what it's saying
• 3:16
  it, and it was on TV earlier. I saw it,
• 3:19
  didn't record it. Don't want to uh, go
• 3:21
  look for one right now because my my
• 3:23
  stuff is all there. And we have
• 3:28
  internal memos from 2016
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  leaked to the New York Times reveal that
• 3:35
  Supreme Court justices
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  led by Chief Justice John Roberts
• 3:42
  maneuvered to block President Obama's
• 3:45
  environmental regulations.
• 3:47
  Now, this is court activism, okay?
• 3:51
  fueling the scrutiny of the so-called
• 3:54
  shadow docket. Okay, this is Supreme
• 3:57
  Court guys saying, "Here's what I'm
• 3:59
  gonna do. Here's if this ever gets to
• 4:01
  me, you're going to get screwed. Here's
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  what it is." Now, believe it, don't
• 4:04
  believe it. I don't know. I haven't gone
• 4:06
  far enough into it to find out whether I
• 4:08
  believe it or not. And in order to do
• 4:09
  that, I want to pull the whole story.
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  But the news is out there. So, this
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  isn't me saying this. This is a a
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  summary from somebody else's reading of
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  The Hill, which on its own does, I'm
• 4:20
  sure, didn't interview uh John Roberts.
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  So, uh there's 16 pages of documents
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  that were leaked that highlight deep
• 4:29
  ideological divides and concerns about a
• 4:32
  deteriorating culture of regarding court
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  confidentiality. Okay.
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  The memos reveal allegedly that Chief
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  Justice Roberts and other conservative
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  judges pushed to halt the EPA's clean
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  power plan, which the Times described as
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  Roberts acting like a bulldozer. The
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  leak provides insight into the shadow
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  docket, the unexplained or quick
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  decisions made by the court uh and has
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  intensified criticism from the left
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  highlighting how such decisions favor
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  conservative policy goals. Well, they do
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  the same thing in the other direction
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  and that the Democrats would never u you
• 5:13
  know fight about that. But uh these um
• 5:18
  these things uh that occur, of course
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  they occur. It's freaking politics. It's
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  a dirty freaking world. And and don't
• 5:26
  act like they don't. If uh you think
• 5:29
  that federal judges don't understand
• 5:31
  their power, you better think again.
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  They're basically untouchable. You can't
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  do anything except bow down when you
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  walk in their courtrooms. And uh and I
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  don't mean that horribly. You know, you
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  got to respect the position as a lawyer
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  anyway, but don't go acting like you
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  have any authority of any kind and that
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  they don't know what sort of authority
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  that they do have. And they make their
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  decisions. And it seems like the more
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  blatant they are, the less anybody is
• 6:02
  going to screw with them. And don't
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  don't kid yourselves that they're not
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  also looking for the next position in
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  the chain of command. That is what they
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  are doing. They all dream to be next uh
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  in line to be on an appellet court and
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  ultimately hope to be part of the
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  Supreme Court. And so trust me, it's
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  political and they want to be
• 6:26
  recognized. They also want to be known.
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  And you think that lawyers aren't
• 6:30
  political?
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  Yeah, good luck with that theory. Um but
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  anyway, the the impact they say that
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  this shadow docket impact um is uh has
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  legal experts saying that the leak seems
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  to designed to embarrass the court right
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  now and undermine trust in its
• 6:50
  proceedings with some commentators
• 6:52
  urging an FBI investigation because of
• 6:55
  the leak. Now
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  I don't know who's right, who's wrong,
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  don't really care. The issue for me is
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  that
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  the court is supposed to be, and this is
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  what they hammer into your head all
• 7:12
  through law school, you can't say
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  anything bad about the court. You can't
• 7:16
  say anything bad about a judge. You
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  can't it's and and the way they define
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  it in your uh in your civil procedure
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  courses and in your constitutional law
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  courses, well, it's a dirty, messy
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  system, but it's the best in the world.
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  That's it. That's your logic. It's a
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  dirty, messy system, but it's the best
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  in the world. And you have to change it
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  from within. And they pound that into
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  your head. They pound it into your head
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  for a reason. So you don't ever come out
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  and say anything negative. And if you go
• 7:48
  after the government, if you go after
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  the system itself, you become the
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  target. You know, I'm a prime example of
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  that. and you become the target for
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  a-holes who uh believe in nothing but
• 8:00
  the system and they don't even believe
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  in that. They're just all powerful in
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  the system. And so they just destroy
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  people who threaten that system. And
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  trust me, it happens. And it happens
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  every day. It happens in Missouri pretty
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  pretty frequently and it does occur. So,
• 8:19
  these legal experts are saying that this
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  information put out right now is
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  designed to embarrass the court and
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  undermine trust in the proceedings. And
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  again, commentators are saying, "Hey,
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  the FBI ought to jump in the court."
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  Yeah, that's going to work. Um, yeah,
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  they do that, the court will figure out
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  how to get them. Trust me on that one.
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  Uh, so this 2022 DOB's opinion leak and
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  a smaller leak in 2024 to the exact same
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  publication point to ongoing serious
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  breaches of confidentiality. And the
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  only way you can get the entire story is
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  read it in the Hill. And I haven't been
• 8:55
  able to do that yet. So they have but
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  the leak has occurred and uh I'm going
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  to have to uh dig in and get some of
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  that. Here's a there's another blog
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  um from uh Slate. If you've ever heard
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  of Slate and uh here there's something
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  I'm going to share this article. H I
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  don't know if I'll share the whole
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  thing. It's far too long. But apparently
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  Slate has uh done a rewrite as well and
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  they have a related uh couple of stories
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  in there. So, I'm going to share these
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  later, but uh that's on the news part
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  that we do plan to uh to uh
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  uh and it has the documents in there
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  which uh you know show John Roberts
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  taking authority. We we shall see what
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  happens in those. And uh I'm I'm truly
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  interested in how that all pans the hell
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  out. Okay,
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  but I want to get back to where I was
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  talking to uh uh or talking about uh
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  Nicole Pashinan
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  who is Armenian leader
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  and Vladimir Putin in a formal it's 15
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  minute 20 minute statement between the
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  two of them and uh I could give the
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  whole translation to you it's not that
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  long and and put it out there but but
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  Putin especially I may tell you a little
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  bit about what his what he was talking
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  about. He he said that the most
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  important thing in political processes
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  especially between the two countries uh
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  they're sharpened during election
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  campaigns uh is to not harm relations
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  between Russia and Armenia and uh we
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  have discussed many times that Russia
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  and Armenia have special relations
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  formed not over decades but over
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  centuries and we're united by shared
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  history joint problems uh problem
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  solving. Now Armenia is right next to
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  Georgia. Georgia and Eiserjan. And
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  Georgia is so damn beautiful. Um I spent
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  some time over there uh not last fall
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  but uh was I in Georgia two years ago um
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  fall fall August September and I went to
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  uh Vladovkas and I went to in Russia and
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  I spent some time in Georgia during that
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  3-w week trip two four-week trip two
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  weeks in each place and it was it was
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  really pretty cool and Georgia is a
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  great place. Armenia is right next door.
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  No, you watch a lot of movies in um in
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  uh
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  at least I do anyway that are that are
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  in Russian and but a lot of them when
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  they travel south when they they travel
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  they go down to Sochi and they travel uh
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  down to the beaches in Sochi or they go
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  across to Armenia and they those are uh
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  far more Muslim you know and they can
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  even go down as far as Azerbaijan and
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  and those things when it was the Soviet
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  Union. So traveling they would all go
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  down there. there's plenty of travel
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  between the two and the same thing with
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  Georgia. There's a large Russian
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  population and uh uh in Georgia Armenia
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  and Azarbaijan and in Armenia has some
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  uh some pretty good stuff and uh I'm
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  going to share a song from one of the
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  movies that I just love from that time
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  period and uh uh it's I'll share you a
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  song from that just later. But he talked
• 12:14
  a little bit about the economy did our
• 12:16
  between the two countries uh did our
• 12:18
  Vladimir Vladimir and he said uh trade
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  reached about 11 billion previously and
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  about 6.4 to 6.5 uh billion and in
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  comparison with Azerbaijan they're under
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  5 billion and that says something
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  because in order they have to have a
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  rail through Azerbaijan to get to
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  Armenia and and 1.2 2 billion is
• 12:41
  Armenian agriculture exports that Russia
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  purchased. They have ongoing discussions
• 12:46
  about developing ties with the European
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  Union. Does Armenia and uh Putin is
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  saying you know membership in both a
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  customs union with the EU and the
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  Eurasian Economic Union uh are pretty
• 13:02
  much impossible by definition. It's not
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  political, it's economic, he said.
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  Standards differ. tariffs market across
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  uh uh rules of engagement. These
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  differences require years of
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  harmonization even before the Ukraine
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  crisis. We attempted cooperation with
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  the EU, said Putin, and nothing came of
• 13:23
  it. Their position is always extremely
• 13:25
  rigid. On energy, gas prices in Europe
• 13:28
  are about $600 per thousand cubic
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  meters. And from Russia, we supply the
• 13:35
  same thing to Armenia at $177
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  per thousand cubic meters. And that is a
• 13:44
  substantial difference. And it really
• 13:47
  is. They pay four times as much if
• 13:49
  they're going to get it from Europe than
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  if they get it from Russia. Because in
• 13:54
  Europe, it all comes to the US anyway.
• 13:56
  or different pipelines come in different
• 13:59
  places, but they pay four times as much
• 14:01
  if you're in Armenia. Uh Armenia's
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  exports to the EU have grown 10fold in
• 14:07
  years. Ultimately, it's a sovereign
• 14:09
  decision on how to build your economy.
• 14:11
  He said, "The most sensitive issue
• 14:13
  remains Nagorna Karabah after Armenia
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  recognized Karabach as part of
• 14:18
  Azerbaijan in Prague in 2022. It's
• 14:21
  inappropriate for the security
• 14:24
  conference to intervene since it is now
• 14:26
  an internal Azerbaijani matter now
• 14:29
  thanks to efforts by the Azerbaijani
• 14:31
  president and u uh Armenia and US
• 14:35
  involvement relations are stabilizing.
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  He threw a a little hat tip to uh uh
• 14:41
  Trumpster for helping resolve that.
• 14:43
  remember the Armenian president and the
• 14:45
  Azarbaiani president both visited the
• 14:47
  white house different times uh was it
• 14:50
  last year year before no it had to be
• 14:52
  last year because Trump it was after
• 14:53
  Trumpster came into office so the issue
• 14:55
  shouldn't be politicized too much well
• 14:57
  then Pashanyan gets on and he says well
• 14:59
  our relationships with Russia are deep
• 15:01
  and very important they're developing
• 15:03
  under new regional realities
• 15:05
  particularly now that we have peace
• 15:06
  between Armenia and Azaraijan and it was
• 15:09
  only when I was over there in Georgia
• 15:10
  which is right next door to both of
• 15:12
  these countries that we were told we
• 15:13
  couldn't get into uh Azerbaijan cuz I
• 15:16
  wanted to go but I couldn't go there and
• 15:18
  I couldn't really I mean it wasn't
• 15:20
  necessarily a good time to go to Armenia
• 15:22
  either because both of those two
• 15:24
  countries were at each other's throats
• 15:25
  and uh and I do kind of pay attention
• 15:28
  when I go over there and uh so we
• 15:31
  elected not to go to those but my goal
• 15:33
  was to go into there and go into Russia
• 15:36
  through a roundabout way through
• 15:37
  Azerbaijan and through Armenia and uh uh
• 15:41
  you know get to get to Russia and go to
• 15:43
  Vladovkas that way, but I only ended up
• 15:45
  doing Georgia and Vladovkas, so two
• 15:47
  countries, and I still I have to knock
• 15:48
  those other two off my list at another
• 15:50
  time. I'm thinking about going to Sochi
• 15:53
  because Sochi's right next door to them,
• 15:55
  too. And you could, uh, you know, take a
• 15:57
  boat over to one of them and then go in
• 16:00
  the other. It'd be kind of cool. So, uh,
• 16:02
  anyway, um, the Armenian and the, uh,
• 16:05
  uh, he talked about the concerns did
• 16:08
  Pashan about the CSTTO. And in 2022,
• 16:11
  there was a situation where the
• 16:13
  mechanism should have worked, but they
• 16:15
  didn't. That's why they approached Trump
• 16:17
  to help them get rid of the war because
• 16:19
  it didn't really work with the uh CSTTO,
• 16:21
  which is a security organization between
• 16:24
  Southeast Asian states, including
• 16:26
  Russia. And uh on domestic politics,
• 16:28
  Armenia is a democratic country.
• 16:29
  Elections happen frequently. We have a
• 16:32
  decent amount of uh of u
• 16:36
  uh political activism here in our
• 16:38
  country. relationship with Russia has
• 16:40
  endured many tests. We open We're open
• 16:43
  with dialogue blah blah blah and I'm
• 16:45
  confident that in the election Armenia
• 16:47
  will strengthen further its ties with
• 16:49
  Russia. There are still many untapped.
• 16:51
  So the strategic summary of all this
• 16:53
  between the two, this was not small
• 16:55
  talk. This was two guys
• 16:58
  fighting it out diplomatically
• 17:00
  uh like a decent lawyer would do where
• 17:03
  they put point out the uh the pros and
• 17:06
  the cons and then they get to it. So
• 17:08
  Putin's position is that rough Russia is
• 17:10
  offering some tangible benefits. Cheap
• 17:13
  gas, trade, access, labor migration. EU
• 17:16
  alignment comes with regulatory
• 17:18
  incompatibility and long-term friction.
• 17:20
  And the security ally is is security
• 17:23
  reality is once Armenia recognized
• 17:25
  Karabak as Aarani, Russia's hands
• 17:28
  basically were tied militarily. They
• 17:30
  couldn't come in and support. So this a
• 17:32
  subtle pressure about pro-Russian
• 17:34
  political actors. Now they talked about
• 17:36
  the um the the pipelines going through
• 17:40
  Azeraijan in a lot of places and into
• 17:43
  Armenia and that that's no longer an
• 17:45
  issue uh for getting cheap Russian gas
• 17:47
  and they can still get cheap Russian gas
• 17:49
  and they acknowledge the
• 17:50
  incompatibility. Uh so Pashian
• 17:54
  acknowledged the uh long-term
• 17:56
  incompatibility with the EU but he said
• 17:59
  uh well the CSTTO failed in 2022
• 18:03
  and uh but he's open to uh nonRussian
• 18:07
  energy and nuclear partners
• 18:09
  and uh nuclear you know Russia can build
• 18:13
  them a nuclear power plant far cheaper
• 18:16
  than anybody in the EU but uh who knows
• 18:19
  you know what they're going to do. The
• 18:20
  underlying reality is Armenia is doing
• 18:22
  the same as a lot of countries are
• 18:24
  trying to do and trust me there's been a
• 18:27
  lot of NATO and US and NGO activism and
• 18:32
  all those areas Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan uh
• 18:36
  uh Turk menistan any of the stands over
• 18:38
  there and then Armenia Georgia Azerbaian
• 18:41
  and th those places huge amounts of uh
• 18:45
  of impact from and and non uh government
• 18:50
  organizations attacking over there and
• 18:52
  trying to get these guys to uh tow the
• 18:55
  anti-Russia line just like in Ukraine.
• 18:58
  So, it's a classic geopolitical
• 19:00
  maneuvering and the smaller state wants
• 19:02
  to keep both doors open and a major
• 19:05
  power is politely explaining that
• 19:07
  eventually one door or the other you're
• 19:09
  going to have to close and we hope it's
• 19:11
  the EU door because we it makes a lot
• 19:13
  more sense for you to be with us and it
• 19:16
  really does um truthfully but uh you
• 19:19
  know who knows what will happen.
• 19:22
  Um, I was talking to you about uh the,
• 19:28
  you know, I want to put this song in.
• 19:32
  The song I'm going to play for you is
• 19:34
  called Cheito Guito and it's a Soviet
• 19:37
  era film from Mimo and it's sung by a
• 19:39
  guy named Vakang Kikid, a Georgian
• 19:43
  performer who was just loved across the
• 19:45
  Soviet Union and and leaders who
• 19:47
  couldn't stand each other paused to
• 19:49
  honor him when he died. And mamino
• 19:52
  itself is a just a wonderful little
• 19:54
  story. It's a Caucasus parable. A
• 19:57
  Georgian pilot. Uh he pilots a
• 20:00
  helicopter. He's he can fly planes too,
• 20:03
  but he's a helicopter pilot. An Armenian
• 20:05
  companion. Uh he's he's got a a woman
• 20:08
  there. He's got Moscow in the middle. He
• 20:10
  just wants he's got a pilot's license
• 20:12
  and he wants to do more. The opening
• 20:14
  scene is him coming in in his big
• 20:16
  helicopter and somebody has a goat in
• 20:18
  the back seat. And by the way, that's
• 20:21
  the way it used to be. I flew on an
• 20:23
  Aeroflot flight and a guy came in uh
• 20:26
  this is in the '9s and a guy gets on,
• 20:28
  he's like from Azerbaijan or something
• 20:30
  like that and he had these big billowy
• 20:32
  pants on and it was pretty cool. and he
• 20:33
  sits down right next to me in the in the
• 20:36
  front of the uh of the airplane and I
• 20:38
  was sitting there and and I was going we
• 20:40
  were I was going from Moscow to Malddova
• 20:43
  uh to uh Kishin and he was going to
• 20:46
  Kishov too and where I I don't know if
• 20:48
  the plane was going somewhere else later
• 20:50
  there were no stops on the way it was
• 20:52
  just uh straight over and u the
• 20:57
  he sits down next to me and he's got a
• 21:00
  pair of these boots that go up to his
• 21:01
  knees and they're they're they're pretty
• 21:03
  cool. He's got the billowing silkish
• 21:07
  style pants and he's got a big shirt and
• 21:09
  a big broad belt on. It's like gez, I'm
• 21:12
  sitting next to some guy who uh I don't
• 21:15
  know what came out of a uh um
• 21:18
  Azerbaijani Arabic Muslim something
• 21:21
  story, you know, Arabian Knights or
• 21:24
  something. And uh and he's sitting down
• 21:26
  next to me and I'm trying to ignore and
• 21:30
  somebody else comes by carrying a crate
• 21:32
  full of chickens. They got a crate like
• 21:35
  six chickens in there. This this crate.
• 21:38
  Another guy comes in carrying a bail of
• 21:41
  cotton a bail. You got this big whole
• 21:44
  plane. I'm like where am I? And it was
• 21:47
  an Aeraflot flight from Moscow to uh uh
• 21:51
  Kishino in Malddova. And uh anyway, I'm
• 21:54
  sitting next to a guy. It's it's not not
• 21:56
  that long a flight. Three, four hours
• 21:57
  maybe. And uh uh so I'm I'm dozed off.
• 22:00
  I'm there in a suit for God's sake. You
• 22:02
  know, I got a suit coat on and I'm
• 22:04
  sitting next to this Arab dude wearing
• 22:07
  some stuff. All of a sudden, he taps me
• 22:10
  and I look over and he reaches in his
• 22:12
  boot and I swear to God, the guy pulled
• 22:14
  out like an 8 inch curved knife. Like it
• 22:17
  looked like a mini scimitar, right? He's
• 22:19
  got this huge knife that he just pulls
• 22:22
  out of his boot and then he reaches into
• 22:24
  a pouch in the front of his uh uh in the
• 22:26
  front of his outfit. He's got like a
• 22:29
  little u fanny pack of some sort. It
• 22:31
  wasn't, but but you know, he's got this
• 22:33
  thing and he pulled it out and he starts
• 22:35
  he pulled out a tomato and he starts
• 22:37
  slicing tomatoes and he handed me a
• 22:40
  couple of chunks of tomato and uh you
• 22:42
  know, we spoke a little bit in Russian.
• 22:43
  We had a little bit of fun. his Russian
• 22:45
  was terrible. And uh but you know, he
• 22:47
  tried to talk to me and and anyway, it
• 22:49
  was an interesting flight. But I but it
• 22:51
  was uh pretty the only reason I share
• 22:54
  that story is because I I I I I liked
• 22:57
  this this film was called Mimino.
• 23:02
  And Mimino is uh everybody loved it in
• 23:04
  the Soviet Union. And how do you not?
• 23:06
  It's a story of a guy who's a pilot in
• 23:09
  Georgia
• 23:11
  flying and doing p, you know, doing
• 23:14
  carrying freaking goats and and chickens
• 23:16
  and stuff in the back of his helicopter
• 23:19
  which seats about eight eight people
• 23:21
  back there and people would fly and then
• 23:23
  he'd fly into his little village in
• 23:25
  Georgia. But then he would go to bigger
• 23:27
  places every once in a while. And one of
• 23:30
  them in the first part of the show, he
• 23:32
  runs into u um runs into
• 23:38
  uh some former some pilots that he went
• 23:40
  to school with and they got all these
• 23:42
  steartesses hanging about with him and
• 23:44
  they're talking about the plane that
• 23:46
  they're flying and they're off to
• 23:48
  Western Europe somewhere and they're
• 23:50
  talking about stories and and he uh has,
• 23:54
  you know, one of the girls that he is
• 23:55
  speaking with and he says, "Oh, he's a
• 23:57
  pilot, too." And then he he he gets
• 23:59
  embarrassed. Anyway, long and the short
• 24:01
  of the story is he goes to Moscow,
• 24:05
  has adventures, becomes a pilot for a
• 24:08
  year or two, and in the end he ends up
• 24:09
  going back home. It's a cool story. It's
• 24:11
  a it's a he goes back home and the girl
• 24:14
  of his dreams and stuff, she doesn't
• 24:16
  want to leave Georgia or anything like
• 24:18
  that. And so, uh, that's what they do.
• 24:20
  And it's and and it's actually pretty
• 24:22
  cool. So, um, a decent story. And from
• 24:24
  it in the beginning of the show is
• 24:26
  something called uh uh Cheto Grito. And
• 24:29
  I always like this song. And so I'm
• 24:32
  going to uh share it with you just
• 24:34
  because. And then uh but I want to do
• 24:36
  that before we do it. We're going to put
• 24:38
  the map on the table. The South Caucuses
• 24:40
  are between the Black Sea and the
• 24:42
  Caspian Sea. Georgia borders Russia to
• 24:45
  the north and the northeast. Azerbaijan
• 24:47
  to the east and the southeast and
• 24:49
  Armenia and Turkey to the south. And the
• 24:52
  Black Sea is to the west. So Armenia is
• 24:54
  kind of landlocked. It borders Georgia
• 24:56
  and Azerbaijan and Iran to the
• 24:58
  southeast, Turkey to the west and
• 25:00
  Azerbaijan on claim of Nakshivian to the
• 25:02
  southwest. The Georgia is not trivia.
• 25:05
  It's destiny. Georgia has a Black Sea
• 25:07
  opening and direct border with Russia.
• 25:09
  Armenia does not border Russia at all,
• 25:11
  but they reach Russia through Georgia.
• 25:13
  And for decades, the western route has
• 25:15
  beenru structurally choked by the closed
• 25:18
  Turkish frontier. And the closed Turkish
• 25:20
  border is one of the great stubborn
• 25:22
  facts of the modern caucuses. Reuters
• 25:24
  said last year that Turkey has closed
• 25:26
  its border to Armenia in 1993 in support
• 25:30
  of Azerbaijan during Norno Karabach.
• 25:33
  And although there have been attempts at
• 25:35
  normalization, Armenia and Turkey still
• 25:37
  have no formal diplomatic relations. So
• 25:39
  whenever people in Washington or
• 25:41
  Brussels talk breezy about Armenia
• 25:44
  pivoting west, they're skipping over the
• 25:46
  plain mechanical problem. Armenia is not
• 25:48
  Estonia. It is a small mountainous
• 25:51
  landlock state with a shut western
• 25:53
  frontier and a bad news on the eastern
• 25:56
  frontier and no direct EU border. So if
• 25:59
  you want to sell Europe to these guys,
• 26:01
  which uh you know they're still trying
• 26:03
  to explore, you have to do it through
• 26:04
  Turkey and you have to do it through
• 26:06
  some sort of corridor permissions uh
• 26:09
  rail gauge custom rules with neighbors
• 26:11
  that you don't like. So that's why the
• 26:14
  railway question matters so much in the
• 26:16
  Putin Pesan exchange. It isn't about
• 26:18
  symbolism. It's about steel tracks and
• 26:20
  leverage because they can work with
• 26:24
  Russia through Georgia. And Georgia has
• 26:26
  a reasonably good relationship with
• 26:28
  Russia right now. Although Trump's
• 26:30
  trying to kick both of those out. So
• 26:32
  just so you know where you are on the
• 26:33
  world. So and that that has kind of
• 26:36
  always been that way. When you talk
• 26:37
  about Nodora Karabach, you have to go
• 26:39
  back there. This has been a
• 26:40
  predominantly ethnic Armenian region
• 26:43
  internationally recognized as part of
• 26:45
  Azerbaijan. Now the dispute goes back to
• 26:48
  the Soviet collapse and then it was
• 26:50
  decades of war, ceasefire, frozen
• 26:52
  conflict, renewed war and finally
• 26:54
  Azerbaijan
• 26:56
  uh restored military control in 2023 and
• 26:59
  that was the exodus of the region's
• 27:01
  Armenian population. 2025 Trump brokered
• 27:05
  a deal that was presented as a turning
• 27:06
  point toward normalization after four
• 27:08
  decades conflict. So this is Putin's
• 27:11
  comments. He isn't just talking about
• 27:13
  abstract diplomacy. He's talking about
• 27:15
  an Armenia that's already accepted in
• 27:17
  practical terms that Karbach is no
• 27:19
  longer a military reversal project. They
• 27:21
  can't change it. It's Azerbaijan.
• 27:23
  Period. End of sentence. So that's a war
• 27:26
  me. You know who's is the UN all talked
• 27:29
  about uh uh gez territorial integrity.
• 27:32
  Yeah. Right. Uh that's what happened in
• 27:35
  that's what happened in Serbia. That's
• 27:37
  what happened in Kosovo. And that's what
• 27:39
  happened in Azerbaijan and Armenia. So
• 27:43
  the deal with the abbreviation you know
• 27:45
  that the collective security treaty
• 27:47
  organization was a Russian-led Soviet
• 27:49
  military block including Armenia,
• 27:51
  Bellarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Russia
• 27:54
  and Tajikhstan. It's Moscow's answer to
• 27:57
  the security alliance framework but not
• 27:59
  with NATO's
• 28:02
  I don't know what credibility I suppose.
• 28:04
  And in September 22, Azerbaijani attacks
• 28:07
  on the sovereign Armenian territory.
• 28:09
  Armenia invoked article 4, a collective
• 28:12
  defense. And the CSTTO did hold an
• 28:14
  extraordinary session at Armenia's
• 28:16
  request. It sent a mission. It talked,
• 28:17
  but what it did not do was provide
• 28:20
  military backing Armenia thought it
• 28:22
  should get. Armenia officials later said
• 28:24
  CSTTO had unclear positions and that uh
• 28:27
  Prime Minister Pasan said the mechanisms
• 28:30
  had failed Armenia in 2021 and 22.
• 28:32
  That's what he was talking about when he
• 28:34
  said it was a CSTTO failure. So Putin
• 28:36
  says, well to be honest, once you
• 28:39
  recognize Karbach as part of Azerbaijan,
• 28:41
  CSTTO intervention is improper. And he
• 28:44
  he made a legal argument. But Pashan
• 28:46
  said he's talking about their
• 28:48
  internationally recognized territory of
• 28:50
  2022, not simply Karabach. And he's
• 28:52
  saying they should have come in to get
• 28:54
  something and they got a little sloppy
• 28:55
  about it and never occurred. Anyway, uh,
• 28:57
  culturally, I want to pull you back to
• 29:00
  the Georgian pilot, which is a pretty
• 29:02
  cool story. And, uh, I'm going to give
• 29:04
  you a little bit of culture now from
• 29:06
  that point of view. And this is Cheto
• 29:08
  Vito. And, uh, I always enjoyed this
• 29:11
  song. Couldn't tell you why. I just do.
• 29:14
  And, uh, so I'm going to share it with
• 29:17
  you if I can find it. Oh, it's the last
• 29:20
  one, not the first one. That's why I had
• 29:22
  to go through each and every one. But
• 29:25
  here it is. Enjoy please. Cheto Gito.
• 29:28
  It's a fragment from the film Mimino.
• 29:46
  to
• 30:10
  cheto marito.
• 30:16
  Cheetos.
• 31:01
  Cheeto
• 31:09
  Cheeto.
• 31:19
  foretti.
• 32:01
  I don't know why. I just like that song
• 32:04
  and I always have and as soon as I heard
• 32:06
  it in the movie, it's like, you know,
• 32:07
  I'm gonna have to put that in a playlist
• 32:09
  somewhere. And I found it and put it in.
• 32:12
  It's called Cheeto Griito. Cheeto
• 32:15
  Margarito.
• 32:17
  And uh that is actually Georgian and uh
• 32:19
  it's from the film Mimino where a
• 32:22
  Georgian pilot you know dreams of uh
• 32:24
  something bigger in his life. And uh if
• 32:27
  you read um some of the some of the um
• 32:31
  commentary in in songs like that or if
• 32:33
  you read into it after that movie those
• 32:35
  type of movies just don't exist anymore.
• 32:37
  They just don't. And uh it's um uh it
• 32:41
  was pretty cool movie and uh uh I
• 32:44
  challenge you to find it in English
• 32:46
  even. So it's a it's a more of a moral
• 32:49
  story at the end. You know, home is
• 32:51
  better blah blah blah and and that kind
• 32:54
  of thing. But it's a but it's a cool a
• 32:56
  cool story. a a film with a lesson,
• 32:59
  let's say, uh that many of us have, you
• 33:03
  know, never learned about apparently,
• 33:06
  because we go all over the place. And uh
• 33:09
  uh it's there's there's u home doesn't
• 33:13
  really exist uh for for some of us and
• 33:16
  we just of you know, live where we live.
• 33:18
  And I've never really established a
• 33:20
  place that uh I' I'd necessarily called
• 33:23
  home until I moved to Missouri in 2001.
• 33:28
  I never lived anywhere longer than uh 3
• 33:30
  years. Four. No, that's not true. I
• 33:32
  lived in Minnesota for five when I was a
• 33:36
  kid. Uh but my father was in
• 33:38
  transportation and so our family moved
• 33:41
  around a lot and I was in the military
• 33:43
  and I moved around a lot. Um I I was in
• 33:46
  Dallas for uh law school for about uh
• 33:50
  not quite 5 years as well and uh then
• 33:54
  came to Missouri in 2000
• 33:57
  mid 2000 and uh um I suppose if I had to
• 34:02
  call a place home it'd be uh Missouri
• 34:05
  but uh I'm I'm I'm not I'm not I don't
• 34:09
  know. I I People ask you where are you
• 34:11
  from? Well, I was born in
• 34:12
  Cincinnati, but um there you have it.
• 34:16
  Anyway, there's uh plenty more to go
• 34:18
  into that I wanted to get into,
• 34:20
  especially about uh this um these the
• 34:23
  further discussions and after we get
• 34:25
  there, we'll play a little bit more
• 34:26
  music for you and uh talk about some
• 34:29
  more about Armenia. So, let's uh get out
• 34:33
  of the caucuses and we're going to move
• 34:36
  now into
• 34:39
  uh you know, I played the the Cheto
• 34:41
  Griito and what the Cauus story tells
• 34:44
  us, we're going to move to Germany next.
• 34:47
  Um is like this. Uh, Russia is stopping
• 34:52
  the transit of Kazaki oil to Germany's
• 34:57
  Schwinery
• 34:58
  via the Drewgeba pipeline starting in
• 35:00
  May. Okay. And it does hit a major fuel
• 35:03
  artery for Berlin, an immediate public
• 35:06
  rationale from Moscow. So, so the whole
• 35:08
  world is revolving around energy right
• 35:11
  now. Trump's trying to take over energy
• 35:14
  in Venezuela and in Iran. Um EU is
• 35:18
  scrambling to cover where it's I read a
• 35:20
  report yesterday that is actually pretty
• 35:22
  cool. The Canadians are trying to open a
• 35:24
  northern sea route uh that doesn't have
• 35:28
  to go through Hudson Bay and uh has to
• 35:31
  go through instead uh I mean the the
• 35:34
  American side doesn't have to no
• 35:36
  American uh port touching anything
• 35:40
  coming out of Canada. They're opening
• 35:42
  their own northern Arctic route to
• 35:46
  Europe and they're going to start
• 35:48
  supplying fuel which right now has to
• 35:51
  come through the US. And so they've
• 35:54
  announced this thing. It's billions of
• 35:56
  dollars to um
• 36:00
  winterify, I suppose you'd call it, uh
• 36:03
  this northern port in uh Canada and have
• 36:08
  ice breakers that escort and take people
• 36:11
  across the uh ocean to um the EU
• 36:15
  countries without any dealing with the
• 36:19
  United States. So this is both the EU
• 36:23
  and Canada avoiding America
• 36:27
  intentionally.
• 36:29
  It's it makes much more sense and they
• 36:31
  can get much more money straight dealing
• 36:34
  with the EU. You wonder if they'll use
• 36:37
  American dollars to get that done.
• 36:39
  That's a that's just a wonder for me.
• 36:42
  And uh so there's all kinds of juggling
• 36:46
  everywhere. What did Putin talk about
• 36:48
  with Pinñan? He talked about oil. He
• 36:51
  talked about infrastructure
• 36:54
  and the the war in coming the economic
• 36:57
  wars will be around long after these
• 37:01
  attempts at domination by the powerful
• 37:04
  by the Americas of the world or by
• 37:07
  Russia trying to force something or
• 37:09
  convince uh Armenia that they need to do
• 37:12
  something right that Canada is going to
• 37:15
  avoid America entirely and work straight
• 37:17
  with the EU and vice versa. they're
• 37:19
  going to have back and forth between
• 37:21
  their ports. Cutting out America. That's
• 37:23
  the part that's important to me is we're
• 37:25
  being cut out in a lot of places. And
• 37:28
  we've used our our position to uh
• 37:34
  dominate
• 37:37
  to no one's advantage but our own. Not
• 37:39
  even thinking of the other sides with
• 37:41
  force, with power, and well, we're the
• 37:44
  largest uh economy in the world. You
• 37:46
  have to deal with us. Well, they're
• 37:48
  telling us that they don't in a lot of
• 37:50
  different ways. A lot of people are
• 37:52
  saying it, too. Canada, after uh um um
• 37:56
  the uh speech of Carney uh recently
• 38:00
  said, you know, we're we're we're
• 38:03
  getting alternatives. They're dealing
• 38:04
  with China directly. That's another way
• 38:07
  of the northern straight, the northern
• 38:09
  sea through the Arctic. Why do you think
• 38:11
  Donald Trump, who knows this, wants
• 38:12
  Greenland, Canada, and Alaska? He wants
• 38:16
  all those. and uh he he wants more. But
• 38:19
  the Caucus' story that I just related to
• 38:21
  you and the German story that I'm giving
• 38:23
  you is geography still rules, pipelines
• 38:26
  still rule, rails still rule, and all
• 38:28
  the speeches in Brussels and Washington
• 38:31
  don't move a barrel of oil until
• 38:33
  somebody controls the infrastructure and
• 38:35
  the map. And in Armenia, Putin was
• 38:37
  saying to Pesan that history and
• 38:39
  logistics still matter more than western
• 38:42
  slogans, democracy, blah blah blah. on
• 38:44
  Germany. Moscow is now making the same
• 38:46
  point but more harsh. Energy routes are
• 38:49
  still used like a wrench across European
• 38:52
  machinery whether you like it or not. So
• 38:55
  starting May 1st, Kazak oil, Russia is
• 38:58
  cutting it off. You can't do so. the the
• 39:00
  issue uh with the Dujba pipeline and one
• 39:04
  of the reasons that Victor Orbin got
• 39:06
  booted
• 39:07
  by his electorate in Hungary is because
• 39:11
  the Dujba pipeline allegedly uh uh
• 39:15
  Ukraine destroyed it so that Russia
• 39:18
  couldn't get fuel to Hungary so that
• 39:21
  Orban would be forced to agree to the 90
• 39:25
  billion that e the EU was hold that he
• 39:29
  was vetoing. to go to uh the um corrupt
• 39:35
  hell hole of of Zilinsk's regime. Right.
• 39:40
  And now that Orban is gone, the Drewgeba
• 39:43
  pipeline was fixed in a matter of a week
• 39:45
  because the as the new Maguar leader of
• 39:52
  Hungary said, "Open it up or we're in
• 39:55
  the same boat." And so Drewbo was
• 39:57
  repaired. Ukraine said, "It's repaired."
• 39:59
  Well, and then then then the leader of
• 40:03
  Hungary is off to Brussels to get a to
• 40:05
  give his approval so that eur the
• 40:08
  Ukrainians can get this 90 billion to
• 40:10
  continue fighting the Russians.
• 40:12
  Meanwhile, Russia who supplies oil and
• 40:15
  allows that same pipeline to carry
• 40:18
  Kazaki oil to go through the pipeline to
• 40:21
  Germany in a different section. now says
• 40:25
  now that we can get Russian oil through
• 40:28
  the Drewgeba pipeline to Hungary, you're
• 40:32
  and you won't buy Russian oil. Screw
• 40:34
  you. We're not going to allow our share
• 40:36
  of the pipeline to transport Kazaki oil.
• 40:40
  They're they're sanctioning in reverse
• 40:42
  and saying you then can't have Kazaki
• 40:44
  oil through the Drewba pipeline. Germany
• 40:48
  to go to the Schw uh uh Schwet refinery
• 40:53
  in Drewba beginning on May 1, 2026. And
• 40:57
  that's a major fuel artery for Berlin.
• 41:00
  It carries about 20% of the fuel
• 41:02
  necessary for that part. However, it's
• 41:04
  it's a it's a bite and and it's also
• 41:06
  another punch in the face because that
• 41:08
  same refinery is 54% owned. 54.17 is
• 41:14
  legally owned. of that refinery is owned
• 41:17
  by Russia's Ross Neft uh Russian oil
• 41:22
  company, stateowned oil company. It's a
• 41:24
  big deal and it owns more than half of
• 41:29
  this plant. And so Germany says it's
• 41:32
  going to get the alter and they took it
• 41:33
  and put it in receiverhip and have been
• 41:36
  operating it anyway. They're trying to
• 41:38
  steal the pipeline and say it doesn't
• 41:39
  matter you own 54% or not the pipeline,
• 41:41
  the the uh refinery. And so they they're
• 41:44
  taking that and so they're going to get
• 41:46
  their alternatives through Gdansk or
• 41:48
  Rostto and though the prices are going
• 41:50
  to still kick them in the butt, they'll
• 41:51
  at least be have a have a different and
• 41:54
  they're under a trustee ship. Germany
• 41:56
  has kept the refinery in a trustee ship.
• 41:58
  So you know if we go from these uh
• 42:02
  beautiful songs and mountains to
• 42:04
  pipelines and refineries,
• 42:06
  the political class like to talk about
• 42:08
  values, but in winter, what are they
• 42:10
  going to talk about if the gas isn't
• 42:11
  flowing? Gas usually gets the last word
• 42:14
  and there's a another another collision
• 42:16
  between Russia and Germany and this one
• 42:18
  is not with tanks. It's a Drewba
• 42:21
  pipeline in the PK PCK refinery in
• 42:24
  Schweet uh with 100 kilometers from
• 42:26
  Berlin. Supplies most of the fuel used
• 42:29
  in the German capital and in the
• 42:31
  Brandenburgg region. Reuters reports
• 42:34
  that from May 1, uh Russia is going to
• 42:36
  stop the Kazaki oil through there. Um,
• 42:40
  why was Germany using Kazaki oil in the
• 42:44
  first place? Because after the 2022
• 42:46
  political break with Moscow, Berlin
• 42:49
  moved away from direct Russian crude and
• 42:52
  Schwat has historically been built
• 42:54
  around Russian pipelines. But once
• 42:56
  Germany decided it wanted to turn the
• 42:59
  tap off from Russia, it had to find
• 43:01
  replacement. And one fix was to bring in
• 43:04
  Kazak oil through the very same Russian
• 43:07
  controlled transport architecture. And
• 43:09
  that was always a strange arrangement.
• 43:12
  Russia uh providing oil to Germany,
• 43:16
  but not our oil. It's Kazaki oil.
• 43:19
  Germany wanted not Russian oil, but the
• 43:22
  route still depended on Russia and a
• 43:24
  Russian controlled pipeline. Where's the
• 43:26
  logic in that? In other words, Berlin is
• 43:29
  uh trying to quit one habit but still
• 43:31
  buying cigarettes from the same
• 43:32
  shopkeeper, right? Uh that so you get
• 43:35
  rid of your marrows and you and you move
• 43:37
  over to Salem. Yeah, that arrangement
• 43:40
  might have worked for a while, but it
• 43:42
  had a built-in weakness. Moscow can turn
• 43:44
  off the route and then now they have. So
• 43:47
  the official line, Russian deput deputy
• 43:50
  minister Alexander Novak said the halt
• 43:52
  was due to technical possibilities and
• 43:55
  Kazan's energy minister also discussed
• 43:58
  the disruption to and talked about
• 44:00
  recent attacks and infrastructure
• 44:02
  problems in Kazakhstan. But Reuters
• 44:04
  separately reported that Russia's oil
• 44:05
  output uh was hurt in April by Ukrainian
• 44:08
  drone strikes. Um, so there's a real
• 44:10
  infrastructure disruption backdrop and
• 44:13
  it's not just Russia, it's not just
• 44:15
  Kazakhstan, it's Iran, it's all of the
• 44:18
  Gulf States. There's serious problems.
• 44:20
  There's no reason to be naive about
• 44:22
  this. When Russia said it lacks uh the
• 44:24
  technical possibility to move oil in a
• 44:27
  direction that hurts Germany but flows
• 44:29
  are fine in other directions that help
• 44:31
  Hungary and Slovakia, the technical
• 44:33
  explanation uh you know are you know not
• 44:38
  necessarily
• 44:40
  uh the same as the political necessity
• 44:43
  of doing it. So the timing is also
• 44:45
  pretty interesting. And on the same day,
• 44:47
  Russia reported that uh or I'm sorry,
• 44:49
  Reuters reported that Russian oil
• 44:51
  resumed flow again through the Ukrainian
• 44:53
  section toward Hungary and Slovakia.
• 44:56
  Reuters reported that Hungary's position
• 44:57
  on the 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine
• 45:00
  shifted and unblocked the package. The
• 45:02
  restart of that line matters because
• 45:05
  energy transit and EU bargaining are now
• 45:08
  entangled. So you wind up with a pretty
• 45:11
  interesting picture. One part of Dujba
• 45:14
  reopens in a way to keep Hungary and
• 45:15
  Slovakia supplied and clears an EU
• 45:18
  financing obstacle, but another part is
• 45:21
  effectively shut down for Germany's uh
• 45:23
  benefit via the Kazakhstan barrels.
• 45:26
  That's not pipeline maintenance. It's a
• 45:28
  chess with energy. Right? So Schwet
• 45:32
  itself, this is important because the
• 45:34
  refinery is the story. Um, uh, PCK
• 45:38
  Schwit is not some obscure industrial
• 45:41
  outpost. Reuters repeatedly describes it
• 45:44
  as supplying most of Berlin's fuel.
• 45:47
  Historically, 90% of the German
• 45:50
  capital's fuel came through, which is
• 45:52
  almost 55% owned by Russia. That means
• 45:56
  whenever Schw is pressured, the
• 45:57
  consequences travel fast into transport,
• 46:00
  pricing, supply, and public nerves. When
• 46:02
  the government says there's no supply
• 46:04
  risk, that usually means translated into
• 46:07
  ordinary talk for ordinary folk. We
• 46:10
  think we can keep the lights on, but
• 46:11
  it's going to cost more. Take care
• 46:13
  outing and involve some improvisation.
• 46:15
  Uh government railway announce a problem
• 46:17
  and go, "Yeah, it's fine. Don't don't,
• 46:19
  you know, please ignore, you know, the
• 46:21
  smoke. There's no fire over there. What
• 46:23
  are you talking about?" the ownership
• 46:25
  structure is uh you know from Moscow's
• 46:28
  point of view Rosenef still owns 54.17%
• 46:32
  of shvet and even though Germany puts
• 46:34
  Rosenef's local subster subsidiaries
• 46:37
  under state trusteeship um in plain
• 46:40
  terms Russia's flagship oil company
• 46:43
  still has a legal stake in the facility
• 46:44
  but Berlin controls it administratively
• 46:47
  to protect its own supply and keep
• 46:50
  politics from blowing up the refinery
• 46:52
  operation because trust Russia had shut
• 46:54
  it down in a heartbeat if they hadn't
• 46:56
  have stolen it. So they put it in this
• 46:58
  trustee ship and are running. There's
• 47:00
  all kinds of scams going on and pulling
• 47:02
  the money out of from Russia. So Reuters
• 47:04
  reports in 2025 the Germany extended the
• 47:06
  trustee ship again while Ross Nef sought
• 47:10
  a sale of their portion. So think about
• 47:12
  the picture. Germany's trying to run as
• 47:13
  vital refinery without relying on
• 47:16
  Russian crude while the largest
• 47:18
  shareholder is still Russian and the
• 47:20
  replacement oil still runs through
• 47:22
  Russian controlled transport. You know,
• 47:24
  it's it's crazy. Now, can Germany
• 47:27
  replace the missing barrels? Probably.
• 47:29
  On paper, um Poland's pipeline operator
• 47:33
  PR said it prepared to route oil for
• 47:35
  shvet non-Russian shareholders through a
• 47:38
  port of Gdansk. uh non-Russian
• 47:40
  shareholders. Uh Germany's econom
• 47:43
  economy ministry pointed to alternatives
• 47:45
  via Gdansk or Rosto, but these
• 47:47
  alternatives aren't magic. Port,
• 47:49
  shipping schedules, pipelines, inland
• 47:51
  transfer capacity, terminal
• 47:53
  availability, storage balances, refinery
• 47:55
  blending all really matter. And Reuters
• 47:58
  notes that logistics takes time. And
• 48:01
  even if Berlin avoids a dramatic
• 48:03
  shortage, regional prices are going to
• 48:05
  be hiked. And that's the difference
• 48:08
  between a talking point and a supply
• 48:10
  chain. When a politician says we have
• 48:12
  alternatives, it's like fine, but how
• 48:14
  much are they going to cost? And uh how
• 48:16
  long is it going to take you to get it?
• 48:18
  And there's another player that
• 48:20
  shouldn't be ignored in this story. It's
• 48:22
  Kazakhstan.
• 48:24
  So
• 48:25
  Kazakhstan has been building up its
• 48:27
  exports to Germany through Dujba.
• 48:30
  Reuters reports that in 2025, Kazakhstan
• 48:33
  delivered 2.146 million metric tonses to
• 48:36
  Germany through that route, up sharply
• 48:38
  from the year before. And in quarter 1,
• 48:40
  2026, it already supplied 730,000
• 48:44
  tons. That means Kazakhstan was trying
• 48:47
  to prove it could serve Europe as
• 48:48
  nonRussian source even while using
• 48:51
  Russian transit infrastructures.
• 48:53
  Moscow's decision reminds Kazakhstan of
• 48:56
  a hard truth. Central Asian producers
• 48:59
  may sell nonRussian oil and gas, but if
• 49:03
  the transport remains in Russian
• 49:05
  control, Moscow still has its fingers on
• 49:08
  the valve. So this is not only pressure
• 49:10
  to Berlin, it's a signal to Aana. Do not
• 49:13
  confuse ownership of crude oil with
• 49:16
  control of the route. And that's what
• 49:18
  makes this so important beyond Germany.
• 49:21
  Iranian oil, fine, don't buy it. But how
• 49:23
  you going to get it out of the Straits
• 49:25
  of Hormuz, right? Um, you want to buy US
• 49:29
  gas? Great. But how you going to get it
• 49:31
  across the ocean to Europe or anywhere
• 49:33
  else? Venezuelan oil, fine. How you
• 49:36
  going to buy it if the US blocks the
• 49:38
  way? This is all about energy
• 49:41
  infrastructure. The entire world
• 49:43
  conflicts. This is all energy. Just like
• 49:45
  it was when Bush claimed there were me
• 49:48
  weapons of mass destruction in an Iraq
• 49:50
  that we had to take down, right? When
• 49:52
  they lied to us about that, Germany
• 49:55
  Germany for its part thought it had
• 49:56
  cleverly replaced Russian crude with
• 49:59
  Kazak crude and Moscow's answer is okay.
• 50:01
  Nice. Still our pipe. That's a kind of
• 50:04
  lesson great powers like to teach
• 50:06
  because it lands hard. It's one thing to
• 50:09
  sanction Russia on paper. It's quite
• 50:11
  another to discover that your
• 50:12
  replacement system still is owned by
• 50:14
  Russia passing through Russian
• 50:16
  controlled infrastructure. So Europe
• 50:19
  keeps trying to build a post-Russia
• 50:20
  energy order while still dragging around
• 50:23
  chunks of the old Russian energy order
• 50:24
  like a ball and chain. And so they can't
• 50:27
  get um you know how long is it going to
• 50:29
  take them to build this uh Arctic route
• 50:32
  with Canada? Years and then they may be
• 50:34
  able to replace you know but in the
• 50:36
  meantime they're up for some energy
• 50:38
  problems in Europe. So the Poland angle
• 50:40
  is also worth dwelling on because Poland
• 50:42
  sits between Germany's emergency and the
• 50:45
  politics of a broader eastern flank. In
• 50:47
  late 2022, Reuters reported that Germany
• 50:50
  and Poland agreed to work on securing
• 50:52
  crude supply to Schweet after Russian
• 50:55
  oil was being phased out. Russia's
• 50:57
  pushed that up. That was supposed to be
• 50:58
  2030. Uh that was the emergency
• 51:01
  scaffolding. Now in 2026, the Gadanskout
• 51:03
  is again central, but using Poland as a
• 51:06
  rerouting lifeline is not elegant or
• 51:08
  cheap, and it's not stable at all. It
• 51:11
  adds a maritime dependency, terminal
• 51:13
  pressures, and political coordination.
• 51:15
  Poland can help, but Poland isn't a
• 51:17
  fairy godmother. It's a state with its
• 51:19
  own infrastructure limits, costs,
• 51:21
  strategic priorities. So, there are
• 51:23
  alternatives, but these uh are going to
• 51:25
  be um uh vulnerabilities as well.
• 51:29
  So, let's talk about the great strategic
• 51:32
  move because I think it seems to be a a
• 51:35
  good excuse me move on
• 51:41
  um
• 51:42
  Russia's part. If Russia wants maximum
• 51:45
  pain with minimum drama, this is like a
• 51:48
  textbook move. It doesn't openly cut off
• 51:51
  all energy to Germany. Excuse me. It
• 51:54
  doesn't create an instant apocalyptic
• 51:57
  shortage. Instead, it removes a
• 51:58
  meaningful slice of the supply. It's a
• 52:01
  politically symbolic refinery. It's like
• 52:03
  a thumb in the eye. It's not the end of
• 52:06
  the world, but we've exposed the
• 52:08
  weakness of Germany's substitute
• 52:09
  architecture.
• 52:11
  We've pressured Kazakhstan, reminded
• 52:14
  Europe that replacement logistics are
• 52:16
  frail. And uh all doing this while
• 52:18
  citing a technical reason rather than an
• 52:20
  economic warfare. And uh that's smarter
• 52:23
  than throwing a tantrum. And it's a
• 52:26
  pressure test. And and by the way, how's
• 52:29
  Zalinski going to turn off Dujba? And
• 52:31
  and and I'm worried about that, frankly,
• 52:34
  when he once he received his n receives
• 52:37
  his 90 billion, does he go right back to
• 52:39
  being the a-hole and turning off the
• 52:41
  stuff for uh Hungary just to stick it to
• 52:45
  them until Russia restores it to uh to
• 52:49
  Germany? Don't know. But nobody wants
• 52:52
  oil from Russia. Remember, Germany isn't
• 52:55
  being squeezed in a vacuum. Uh last
• 52:57
  week, Reuters reported that Germany
• 52:59
  under Merch has become Ukraine's top
• 53:01
  European military supporter. 55 billion
• 53:04
  in aid since 2022 and further support
• 53:07
  pledged. It matters because every energy
• 53:09
  move is in a broader position. And
• 53:12
  there's a question about whether Germany
• 53:14
  can simply shrug and say, "Fine, we're
• 53:16
  done with Russian anything like they're
• 53:18
  trying to." Maybe eventually, but they
• 53:20
  can't do it instantly, at least not
• 53:22
  without great cost. And the European
• 53:24
  refining margins are already negative
• 53:26
  because of competition and market
• 53:28
  strain. And the refineries are are
• 53:31
  priced and the fuel prices are high.
• 53:33
  That means Schwat isn't operating in a
• 53:35
  relaxed market where everybody can
• 53:37
  reorder, you know, and just have a, you
• 53:39
  know, a different meal on the buffet.
• 53:42
  The broader environment is already tight
• 53:44
  and expensive. a uh disruption in crude
• 53:48
  routing is much nastier than the same
• 53:50
  disruption would have been years ago.
• 53:53
  It's the difference between missing a
• 53:54
  bus on a sunny afternoon and missing a
• 53:57
  bud bus at midnight in the freezing
• 53:59
  rain. So the the first, you know, you
• 54:02
  catch on the basic story. Russia's
• 54:04
  choking in a German uh artery and the
• 54:06
  move is strategically important. And
• 54:08
  second, the precise mechanism isn't that
• 54:10
  mo Moscow is cutting off Russian oil to
• 54:12
  Germany. However, it's halting the
• 54:14
  transit of some other country,
• 54:17
  Kazakhstan's crude to Germany through
• 54:18
  Dujba, which hurts Schwath materially.
• 54:22
  And third, the restart of Drewgeba flow
• 54:24
  through Ukraine toward Hungary and
• 54:26
  Slovakia and the clearing of the 90
• 54:28
  billion Ukraine lane show that the
• 54:30
  pipeline flows in EU politics are still
• 54:32
  lashed together. And Rosenef continuing
• 54:35
  stake in Schweet talks about how
• 54:37
  incomplete Germany's separation is from
• 54:39
  Russian energy in reality. and Poland
• 54:42
  and Germany ports offer alternatives,
• 54:44
  but the alternatives aren't going to be
• 54:46
  comfortable in the end. The big
• 54:49
  beautifully connected in the caucuses
• 54:51
  Putin was telling Armenia the geography
• 54:54
  and infrastructure limit fantasies. And
• 54:57
  in Germany, Russia's saying the same
• 54:59
  argument with oil and you can announce a
• 55:01
  new political era. You can wrap yourself
• 55:03
  in the EU of gez, we love democracy, if
• 55:06
  you can call it that. You can sanction,
• 55:09
  posture, and moralize. But until you
• 55:11
  replace the old infrastructure
• 55:13
  with a new infrastructure that actually
• 55:16
  works, you're still living inside the
• 55:18
  physical system built by the old order.
• 55:20
  And Europe has been trying to escape
• 55:22
  Russia. And sometimes it succeeds and it
• 55:25
  may ultimately succeed, but Russia's
• 55:27
  rebuilding toward the east and the
• 55:29
  south. and Europe is building to uh take
• 55:33
  stuff through the Baltics and American
• 55:35
  and Chinese uh Canadian oil. In other
• 55:39
  words, that might be the real lesson of
• 55:41
  Dujba, which means friendship in 2026.
• 55:45
  The friendship in the pipeline name died
• 55:47
  long long ago. But the structure remains
• 55:50
  and the structure is outliving the
• 55:52
  slogan. Germany wanted postRRussian
• 55:55
  energy without fully post-Russian
• 55:57
  routing. Kazakhstan wants European
• 56:00
  access without escaping Russian transit
• 56:02
  leverage. And how are they going to do
• 56:04
  that? They can't. The EU wanted to
• 56:07
  bankroll Ukraine while juggling
• 56:09
  Hungarian Russian fuel through the
• 56:12
  pipeline. And Russia in one move has
• 56:15
  reminded all of them that steel, valves,
• 56:17
  ports, and geography still control. And
• 56:20
  in politics, people talk about values,
• 56:22
  but in energy, the map is what controls.
• 56:27
  values do not. So, there you have it.
• 56:31
  Um, I I I've got a few more things, but
• 56:34
  before I get to it, I want to add for
• 56:36
  you
• 56:39
  uh another song from a movie. Um, it's
• 56:44
  called uh
• 56:48
  when is spring coming? And the cold
• 56:51
  people in Germany, Ukraine, and other
• 56:54
  places that don't have any gas supply
• 56:59
  really want to know. And this is from
• 57:01
  Van Zarich Noulitzia, which is
• 57:05
  um spring on River Street. And the song
• 57:08
  is when will spring come? I don't know.
• 57:12
  And uh it's a kind of a love song. And
• 57:15
  it's a it's a cool song. Uh who is the
• 57:18
  guy who sings this? uh Nikolai Ribbnikov
• 57:21
  and uh he's also a star in the movie and
• 57:25
  he sings it and it is a a tasty song of
• 57:29
  a of a good version and a life long gone
• 57:32
  in the Soviet Union and I hope you enjoy
• 57:37
  it. I do. And so there you have it. Have
• 57:40
  a uh have a have a listen.
• 57:45
  Fore!
• 58:00
  Foreign! Foreign!
• 58:07
  for
• 58:16
  even
• 58:35
  So
• 58:44
  over
• 59:01
  the street
• 59:03
  my sha.
• 59:14
  Yes.
• 59:24
  for
• 59:45
  Foreign
• 1:00:30
  It's lovely.
• 1:00:38
  for
• 1:00:48
  my
• 1:01:03
  Nikolai Ribbnikov um sang a song u good
• 1:01:08
  song. I like it. And so, uh, there you
• 1:01:11
  have it. We're going to try to make it
• 1:01:13
  move a little bit, uh, with the next
• 1:01:15
  song. We'll give you something a little
• 1:01:17
  bit, uh, more, um, upbeat, but that was
• 1:01:22
  a a love song of a guy who couldn't get
• 1:01:24
  the girl that he uh, that he wanted to,
• 1:01:27
  uh, notice him. and a very famous song,
• 1:01:30
  very uh well thought of in uh Soviet era
• 1:01:34
  and also now for those who uh um
• 1:01:38
  you know look back upon history it's
• 1:01:40
  like having cool stuff in ours you know
• 1:01:42
  you go to your Elvis Presley movies
• 1:01:44
  there are a lot of plenty good things in
• 1:01:45
  there too um good stuff I like it a lot
• 1:01:51
  and so there you have it we're gonna
• 1:01:53
  move on um to talk about this um you
• 1:01:59
  know one more layer um that under the
• 1:02:02
  surface over the past year Ukrainian
• 1:02:05
  forces have dramatically expanded their
• 1:02:08
  use of long range drone drones inside of
• 1:02:11
  Russian territory particularly targeting
• 1:02:14
  oil infrastructure refineries storage
• 1:02:17
  depots export terminals and they haven't
• 1:02:20
  been symbolic they've caused real
• 1:02:22
  disruption to Russian processing
• 1:02:24
  capacity and logistics Russian officials
• 1:02:27
  point to infrastructure damage and
• 1:02:29
  technical limitations when explaining
• 1:02:32
  the reductions in their own throughput.
• 1:02:35
  So these drones are Ukrainian operated,
• 1:02:39
  but European countries, Germany in
• 1:02:42
  particular, are among Kiev's largest
• 1:02:45
  supporters in funding equipment and
• 1:02:47
  advanced system, including components
• 1:02:50
  that fall into the dual use category.
• 1:02:55
  This which include the drones. This
• 1:02:57
  doesn't mean that Berlin is launching
• 1:02:58
  drones into Russia, but you're hearing
• 1:03:01
  increasing rhetoric that, hey
• 1:03:04
  Germany, hey France, hey England, you
• 1:03:09
  keep supplying these drone parts that
• 1:03:11
  are being used to target us and we're
• 1:03:13
  going to consider the factories that you
• 1:03:16
  are producing them in uh as legitimate
• 1:03:20
  targets. we're going to attack your
• 1:03:22
  soil. And and then uh last week uh they
• 1:03:26
  published a list of all the country uh
• 1:03:29
  the companies and their locations and
• 1:03:31
  addresses that were supplying drone
• 1:03:34
  parts or drones to Ukraine and saying,
• 1:03:38
  "Well, here's a list of potential
• 1:03:40
  targets." And people going, "That's
• 1:03:42
  secret information." Well, not secret
• 1:03:44
  anymore. you know, Russia put it out,
• 1:03:47
  but Western support is part of the uh
• 1:03:49
  ecosystem that enables Ukrainians
• 1:03:52
  operational reach to get into Russian
• 1:03:55
  oil. And so uh you know, from Moscow's
• 1:03:59
  perspective perspective, that
• 1:04:00
  distinction matters less than uh
• 1:04:04
  Brussels might hope. So when you see
• 1:04:06
  Russia halt oil transit that affects
• 1:04:09
  Germany while citing a technical strain
• 1:04:12
  tied to recent disruption, especially in
• 1:04:14
  Iran, especially through uh Ukraine
• 1:04:18
  blowing up pipelines. Uh you don't have
• 1:04:21
  to leap into a conspiracy theory to see
• 1:04:23
  the connection. It's not really a
• 1:04:25
  straight line. It's pressure system.
• 1:04:27
  Ukrainian strikes degrade the
• 1:04:29
  infrastructure that creates a
• 1:04:30
  constraint. Those constraints are then
• 1:04:32
  selectively applied in ways that
• 1:04:34
  maximize its own political and economic
• 1:04:37
  leverage. And if Germany happens to be a
• 1:04:40
  key backer of Ukraine and also a
• 1:04:42
  vulnerable end point vulnerable endpoint
• 1:04:45
  in the pipeline, it's not unreasonable
• 1:04:47
  to see how those pieces go together. You
• 1:04:50
  know, not as a single coordinated event,
• 1:04:52
  but part of a part of a broader pattern
• 1:04:54
  of energy, infrastructure, and war are
• 1:04:58
  now completely intertwined. So, you
• 1:05:02
  know,
• 1:05:05
  is it possible that Russia is responding
• 1:05:07
  to drone strikes?
• 1:05:09
  Sure, it's probable even. But is it
• 1:05:13
  provable as the direct re reason that
• 1:05:15
  Drewgeba is being disrupted into Germany
• 1:05:18
  only? No, not totally. But it it it
• 1:05:22
  makes sense. And uh so I don't know if
• 1:05:26
  you talk about Ukraine power and money
• 1:05:29
  in this question there's a final layer
• 1:05:31
  and it takes us right into Kiev Brussels
• 1:05:34
  and the uncomfortable territory of war
• 1:05:37
  politics and money. uh we have a
• 1:05:39
  situation where a massive European
• 1:05:41
  financial package 90 billion in
• 1:05:43
  long-term support is moving toward
• 1:05:47
  Ukraine at the same time that critical
• 1:05:50
  infrastructure like the Duva pipeline is
• 1:05:52
  suddenly functioning again in a way that
• 1:05:55
  cleared the political obstacle inside
• 1:05:57
  the European Union. Hungary was one of
• 1:05:59
  the most major holdouts and once energy
• 1:06:02
  flow is stabilized and internal EU
• 1:06:05
  negotiations have shifted the resistance
• 1:06:08
  appears to have softened. But those two
• 1:06:10
  things uh whether they're con directly
• 1:06:12
  connected or not or just aligned is up
• 1:06:15
  to for debate. But the alignment is
• 1:06:18
  definitely real and it definitely
• 1:06:20
  matters. But if you go to Ukraine's
• 1:06:22
  internal situation, President Zalinski
• 1:06:25
  is in power under extended martial law,
• 1:06:28
  who's supposed to be gone in May 2024.
• 1:06:31
  He's now two years over. He has now been
• 1:06:34
  removed renewed multiple times. And
• 1:06:36
  under Ukrainian law, elections are
• 1:06:38
  effectively suspended, which is the
• 1:06:40
  formal justification. But here's why the
• 1:06:43
  tension continues to build. The longer
• 1:06:45
  the corrupt Zalinski regime stays in
• 1:06:47
  power and the longer this continues, the
• 1:06:50
  more it raises a structural question. At
• 1:06:52
  what point does emergency government or
• 1:06:55
  governance look like indefinite
• 1:06:58
  governance? There's no clear election
• 1:07:00
  timeline. Zalinsky won't even mention
• 1:07:02
  it. No transitional roadmap, no physical
• 1:07:05
  mechanism for political reset. And at
• 1:07:08
  the same time, there's persistent
• 1:07:10
  discussion. some of it coming from uh
• 1:07:12
  you know credible political circles
• 1:07:14
  about potential leadership alternatives.
• 1:07:16
  One of them and the frequently mentioned
• 1:07:19
  one is Valeri Zillusni who built a
• 1:07:21
  strong reputation during the early
• 1:07:22
  phases of the war and has been removed
• 1:07:25
  from command by Zalinsky and then he was
• 1:07:27
  sent to England to be the uh the uh
• 1:07:31
  ambassador. Well, that actually
• 1:07:32
  strengthened his popularity. His
• 1:07:34
  popularity domestically and
• 1:07:36
  internationally has made him a recurring
• 1:07:38
  figure in conversations about Ukraine's
• 1:07:40
  political future. There have also been
• 1:07:42
  discussions in Western policy circles,
• 1:07:45
  not always public, but not exactly
• 1:07:47
  entirely hidden about leadership
• 1:07:49
  stability in Kiev and people don't like
• 1:07:51
  Zalinski anymore. His popularity is not
• 1:07:54
  that great. So when you combine these
• 1:07:57
  three things, extended martial law,
• 1:07:59
  massive income support, and unresolved
• 1:08:02
  leadership, it's a situation that is uh
• 1:08:05
  quite skeptical to the rest of the
• 1:08:07
  world, right? Not because there's proof
• 1:08:09
  of any wrongdoing, although there's
• 1:08:11
  plenty in the uh uh
• 1:08:15
  workings of the Ukrainian people. There
• 1:08:18
  was an article that I read about uh
• 1:08:20
  undercover people. I got it on video of
• 1:08:23
  them taking stuff in the EU. Now, the
• 1:08:26
  structure itself is quite opaque. Large
• 1:08:28
  sums of money move in a system that
• 1:08:30
  isn't operating under normal
• 1:08:31
  accountability. And that's not
• 1:08:34
  conspiracy theory. That's recognition of
• 1:08:36
  of the pattern and of reality.
• 1:08:40
  And so infrastructure, if you keep
• 1:08:41
  coming back to it, is one thing the
• 1:08:43
  entire entire equation that cannot lie.
• 1:08:46
  The Drewgeba pipeline was disrupted by
• 1:08:49
  Ukraine, then restored. Energy flows are
• 1:08:52
  constrained and then reopened. Political
• 1:08:54
  resistance in the EU was firm until it
• 1:08:57
  was softened. Funding is delayed. Now
• 1:08:59
  it's advanced. None of it proves
• 1:09:01
  coordination, but it does show that
• 1:09:02
  energy, finance, and political
• 1:09:04
  decision-making are moving in parallel
• 1:09:06
  tracks. And those tracks intersect more
• 1:09:08
  often than officials are comfortable
• 1:09:10
  talking about. So when you wonder if
• 1:09:12
  some things could magically happen to
• 1:09:14
  the pipeline after the funds are
• 1:09:16
  received, there's no evidence to support
• 1:09:19
  a specific disruption is planned. But
• 1:09:22
  there's also a demonstrated pattern
• 1:09:24
  throughout the conflict that
• 1:09:25
  infrastructure is repeatedly used as
• 1:09:27
  leverage by multiple sides at moments of
• 1:09:30
  maximum strategic value. Pipelines
• 1:09:32
  aren't just pipes. They're negotiating
• 1:09:34
  tools. They're pressure valves. They are
• 1:09:37
  signals. In the middle of all of this,
• 1:09:39
  Ukraine in a war dependent on external
• 1:09:42
  fight financing, operating under
• 1:09:44
  emergency situation and navigating real
• 1:09:47
  survival needs and realities of
• 1:09:49
  international power politics. They're
• 1:09:52
  definitely occurring. And Zalinsky isn't
• 1:09:54
  simply a a wartime leader. He's a
• 1:09:57
  central figure in a system where
• 1:09:59
  military necessity, political
• 1:10:01
  continuity, and financial dependency are
• 1:10:04
  all tied together. So in the end the
• 1:10:07
  question isn't about whether any one
• 1:10:09
  event is a coordinated event. The
• 1:10:12
  question is whether the system as a
• 1:10:14
  whole is producing outcomes where war
• 1:10:17
  money and infrastructure keep aligning
• 1:10:19
  at exactly the moments when leverage is
• 1:10:22
  needed. Hello straits of moves.
• 1:10:25
  And if that pattern continues then what
• 1:10:27
  we are watching is not really chaos. its
• 1:10:30
  structure and pressure on that structure
• 1:10:33
  and structure infrastructure especially
• 1:10:36
  once you see it is very hard to unsee
• 1:10:41
  I mean it's absolute right so
• 1:10:48
  allegedly the UAE has requested a
• 1:10:51
  bailout some money from the US and I'm
• 1:10:54
  going to play one more song before we
• 1:10:56
  get to that part and I'll may end the
• 1:10:59
  show on that and we're gonna play this
• 1:11:02
  is a much more upbeat
• 1:11:05
  song and it's a more modern song uh of
• 1:11:09
  Tatiana Corticova that is a uh a uh
• 1:11:13
  pretty cool love song and it's called
• 1:11:16
  Adnavo and I like the beat and I hope
• 1:11:18
  you do too. It's a pretty Oops, sorry.
• 1:11:21
  Wait, we're playing something that
• 1:11:22
  shouldn't be being played. Uh there you
• 1:11:24
  have it. We got to get to Tatiana
• 1:11:26
  Corttoova
• 1:11:28
  and uh we shall do that even now.
• 1:11:32
  Here she is. Tatiana Korova
• 1:11:37
  uh song is called Adnavo.
• 1:11:53
  Fore
• 1:12:02
  speech.
• 1:12:22
  Jo.
• 1:12:42
  Foreign
• 1:12:51
  speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech.
• 1:13:05
  What are you
• 1:13:12
  mechanical?
• 1:13:32
  Yeah, I
• 1:13:34
  want to show you
• 1:14:09
  story.
• 1:14:11
  I knew
• 1:14:51
  You can't help but sing along to that
• 1:14:52
  song. if you can do it. It's kind of
• 1:14:54
  hard to do but uh you can do it. Um that
• 1:14:58
  is that and so uh that was uh Tatiana
• 1:15:04
  Corticova and the song was advo
• 1:15:08
  and I actually happened to like it. So
• 1:15:11
  let's see. I was talking a little bit
• 1:15:13
  about Ukrainian
• 1:15:16
  uh theft and Ukrainian there's a story
• 1:15:19
  that came about uh Ukrainians are
• 1:15:21
  stealing in the hopes of living in Dubai
• 1:15:24
  the US military official to an
• 1:15:27
  undercover journalist. Okay, so a hidden
• 1:15:31
  camera footage shows discussion of
• 1:15:33
  rampant corruption in Kiev as well as in
• 1:15:36
  the Iran war and America's WMDs. A US
• 1:15:40
  Army nuclear sir official has reportedly
• 1:15:44
  described the rampant corruption he
• 1:15:47
  witnessed in Ukraine since the
• 1:15:48
  administration of US President Barack
• 1:15:51
  Obama. The interview was released by a
• 1:15:54
  media group run by the contro
• 1:15:57
  controversial journalist
• 1:16:00
  James O'Keefe whose mode of operation is
• 1:16:03
  to send reporters on dates with their
• 1:16:06
  targets to record candid conversations.
• 1:16:09
  He identified the subject as Andrew Hug.
• 1:16:13
  H U GG the Army's US Army's chief of
• 1:16:16
  chemical and nuclear shy a role tied to
• 1:16:19
  safety oversight rather than command of
• 1:16:22
  the US nuclear apparatus. He's a branch
• 1:16:25
  chief uh nuclear and chemical security
• 1:16:27
  US department of the army. Um the
• 1:16:30
  undercover video hug claimed he had
• 1:16:32
  lived in Ukraine and personally witness
• 1:16:34
  Kiev officials plundering US taxpayer
• 1:16:37
  money. Washington and Kiev have
• 1:16:39
  consistently denied accusations of graft
• 1:16:43
  involving American aid programs. That
• 1:16:46
  government is so corrupt, he said, they
• 1:16:49
  stole our money. They just stole it and
• 1:16:53
  bought houses, cars, like $100,000 cars.
• 1:16:56
  If they can get themselves rich and go
• 1:16:58
  live in Dubai, they don't care about
• 1:17:01
  their people. This is Andrew Hug. Okay.
• 1:17:05
  Speaking of domestic issues, Hug claimed
• 1:17:07
  that the US still possesses nerve
• 1:17:09
  agents, referring to the US Army chemist
• 1:17:12
  allegedly exposed to a chemical agent
• 1:17:15
  and commented on the possible
• 1:17:17
  assassination of Iran's newly elected
• 1:17:19
  Supreme Leader. If he, Supreme Leader
• 1:17:22
  Majaba Kamini, doesn't change his ways,
• 1:17:25
  yes, they're going to kill him, he said
• 1:17:27
  while dismissing civilian and child
• 1:17:30
  casualties in Iran as collateral damage.
• 1:17:33
  HUG also disclosed details of the US
• 1:17:36
  nuclear posture and described a rapid
• 1:17:38
  decision-making progress in which a
• 1:17:40
  launch could be triggered. If a Girl
• 1:17:42
  Scout gives you a message, if it passes
• 1:17:45
  all the checks, go. At one point in the
• 1:17:48
  conversation, Hug ironically admitted to
• 1:17:51
  his undercover date. He was It's a date
• 1:17:54
  he's gone on. The easiest way to get
• 1:17:57
  intelligence is send a pretty girl to
• 1:17:59
  talk to a guy. And that's what they did
• 1:18:02
  to him. So after the video is released,
• 1:18:05
  Army spokesman Cynthia Smith reportedly
• 1:18:07
  told O'Keeffe that Hug had been placed
• 1:18:09
  on administrative leave. You think while
• 1:18:11
  the service conducted what she called a
• 1:18:13
  thorough investigation, several
• 1:18:15
  unconfirmed reports alleged that Hug had
• 1:18:18
  been escorted from the Pentagon.
• 1:18:22
  The new report follows a series of
• 1:18:24
  undercover stings by O'Keeffe's outlet
• 1:18:26
  targeting government personnel. In
• 1:18:27
  January, a Secret Service agent assigned
• 1:18:30
  to Price President JD Vance's detail was
• 1:18:32
  placed on leave after hidden camera
• 1:18:34
  footage showed him having share sharing
• 1:18:37
  sensitive protected information. Critics
• 1:18:39
  have long accused O'Keeffe of using
• 1:18:42
  unethical methods and selectively
• 1:18:44
  editing his content to further
• 1:18:46
  conservative causes. In 2023, he parted
• 1:18:51
  ways with his former organization,
• 1:18:53
  Project Veraritoss, amid allegations of
• 1:18:56
  financial impropriy and launched a new
• 1:18:59
  media group called OMG.
• 1:19:02
  So there you have it. We wonder what is
• 1:19:04
  going on in the world. But uh that was
• 1:19:08
  uh interesting.
• 1:19:11
  Um, the old Trumpster has created,
• 1:19:15
  according to uh, Politico,
• 1:19:19
  a naughty list. Who's naughty and nice?
• 1:19:22
  The White House has reportedly drawn up
• 1:19:25
  a NATO naughty and nice list, sorting
• 1:19:28
  member states into tears as it considers
• 1:19:31
  how to reward countries that backed the
• 1:19:34
  US war against Iran and punish those
• 1:19:37
  that did not.
• 1:19:41
  Santa Claus. According to Politico, you
• 1:19:43
  get a lump of coal. No. The internal
• 1:19:46
  paper was uh prepared ahead of NATO
• 1:19:49
  Secretary General Mark Rut's recent trip
• 1:19:51
  to Washington. It reportedly lays out
• 1:19:54
  member contributions to the block and
• 1:19:56
  appears to reflect Pentagon rhetoric
• 1:19:58
  about model allies deserving special
• 1:20:02
  favor and others that face consequences.
• 1:20:06
  The administration has not publicly
• 1:20:08
  spelled out what punishments are going
• 1:20:09
  to be on the table, but officials cited
• 1:20:12
  by Politico said options could include
• 1:20:14
  shifting troops, scaling back exercises,
• 1:20:18
  or redirecting military cooperation away
• 1:20:21
  from the bad members and toward the more
• 1:20:24
  obedient ones. That will benefit
• 1:20:26
  countries like Poland and Romania, both
• 1:20:28
  seen as being in Trump's good graces.
• 1:20:30
  Poland hosts around 10,000 US troops
• 1:20:32
  right now and Romania's expanded Mikail
• 1:20:35
  Golitu
• 1:20:37
  air base has been singled out as a
• 1:20:39
  potential site that would take more
• 1:20:40
  American forces. For years, Trump has
• 1:20:43
  berated NATO members for allegedly not
• 1:20:45
  paying for their own defense
• 1:20:48
  even as they pour billions upon billions
• 1:20:50
  into arming, financing, sustaining Kiev
• 1:20:53
  in its conflict with Russia. At the same
• 1:20:54
  time, many of those same governments
• 1:20:56
  invoked a spectre of looming Russian
• 1:20:58
  threat to justify militarization and
• 1:21:00
  bigger uh larger military budget. Right
• 1:21:05
  now, the split is widened over Iran.
• 1:21:08
  Spain was among the clearest holdouts.
• 1:21:10
  Britain and France were also uh reported
• 1:21:12
  to have rejected or stalled US requests
• 1:21:14
  for support. Other states like Romania
• 1:21:16
  and Bulgaria were per trade as more
• 1:21:18
  helpful with regard to basing or
• 1:21:21
  logistics. In practice, the reported
• 1:21:22
  naughty list would give Trump another
• 1:21:25
  way to hollow out NATO without formally
• 1:21:27
  quitting it and returning the treaty to
• 1:21:29
  a more openly transactional arrangement
• 1:21:32
  like Trump likes to do.
• 1:21:35
  Trump has made little secret of his
• 1:21:37
  contempt for members he sees as
• 1:21:40
  freeloaders and cowards. Earlier this
• 1:21:42
  month, he blasted NATO over its
• 1:21:44
  reluctance to join the Iran Iran fight,
• 1:21:48
  while Rut again found himself trying to
• 1:21:51
  smooth things over after his last visit
• 1:21:54
  where he was ridiculed for calling Trump
• 1:21:58
  daddy. And he should have been ridiculed
• 1:22:02
  for that. Oh my. Um, let's see.
• 1:22:09
  Where else are we going here?
• 1:22:11
  Oh yeah, this was um important.
• 1:22:17
  The US Navy secretary departed. Guy
• 1:22:20
  named John Failen left effective
• 1:22:23
  immediately yesterday.
• 1:22:25
  He stepped down in an abrupt move
• 1:22:27
  announced by the Pentagon with no
• 1:22:30
  explanation or indication that his exit
• 1:22:32
  was linked to the naval blockade of uh
• 1:22:35
  Iran. But Pentagon spokesman Sean
• 1:22:37
  Parnell said the statement was that he
• 1:22:40
  was departing the administration at once
• 1:22:42
  and that under secretary Hungcha would
• 1:22:45
  become acting secretary of the Navy. On
• 1:22:48
  behalf of the Secretary of War,
• 1:22:50
  Department of War, uh we are grateful to
• 1:22:54
  Secretary Failen for his service to the
• 1:22:55
  department and to the United States
• 1:22:58
  Navy. We wish him well. No reason was
• 1:23:00
  announced.
• 1:23:02
  Uh he's a businessman, an investor with
• 1:23:04
  no prior military service, and he was
• 1:23:06
  sworn in as 79th Secretary of the Navy.
• 1:23:09
  That's got to be offensive to all those
• 1:23:11
  who served in the Navy for so many
• 1:23:12
  years. And you take the uh um
• 1:23:17
  position, you know, that's crazy. Um
• 1:23:20
  sudden personnel change is sensitive
• 1:23:22
  moment for us in the Middle East where
• 1:23:24
  Washington is maintaining a blockade
• 1:23:27
  confrontation in around Straits of
• 1:23:28
  Hormuz. guy was just a huge backer. Lots
• 1:23:31
  of money to the Trump uh campaign. Um so
• 1:23:34
  the post is not directly responsible for
• 1:23:37
  authorizing combat operations which
• 1:23:40
  under US law flow through the president,
• 1:23:42
  the defense secretary and relevant
• 1:23:44
  combatant commanders. But the Navy
• 1:23:46
  Secretary oversees the Department of
• 1:23:48
  Navy's core affairs, meaning Failen
• 1:23:50
  would have been involved in readiness,
• 1:23:51
  deployment, policy execution during the
• 1:23:54
  standoff with Iran. Chiao, who had been
• 1:23:56
  serving as under secretary, will now
• 1:23:58
  take over. Failen has previously praised
• 1:24:00
  him as a key part of the dependence uh
• 1:24:02
  department's effort to uh rebuild the
• 1:24:05
  warrior ethos. And the department is
• 1:24:07
  just weeks after head Seth forced out
• 1:24:09
  army chiefs of staff Randy George and
• 1:24:12
  two other senior army generals in a
• 1:24:14
  Pentagon shakeup.
• 1:24:17
  And uh apparently there was a uh race
• 1:24:20
  and gender row that caused the previous
• 1:24:23
  ones. Randy George was dismissed after
• 1:24:26
  he clashed with the US Secretary of War
• 1:24:28
  over promotions for black and female
• 1:24:30
  army officers. The US Secretary of War
• 1:24:33
  Hegs Seth fired um this is a week or two
• 1:24:36
  ago uh fired
• 1:24:40
  chief of staff of the Army Randy George
• 1:24:43
  and uh he was the services topped
• 1:24:45
  unformed officer in a lingering row over
• 1:24:49
  uh promotions linked to race and gender
• 1:24:51
  said the New York Times. Heg Seth
• 1:24:54
  reportedly dismissed two other generals
• 1:24:56
  in a purge that is undermining the war
• 1:24:58
  in Iran. Allegedly, uh sources familiar
• 1:25:01
  with the matter told the paper that
• 1:25:03
  Hegsth ordered George, a 61-year-old
• 1:25:06
  veteran who served both in Iraq and
• 1:25:07
  Afghanistan, to retire immediately,
• 1:25:11
  describing the move as rooted not in
• 1:25:13
  policy, but in the secretary's
• 1:25:14
  long-running grievous with the army and
• 1:25:16
  its leadership and a troubled
• 1:25:18
  relationship with Army Secretary Daniel
• 1:25:21
  Driscoll. Heg said didn't give a reason.
• 1:25:23
  Previously vowed to depend the
• 1:25:25
  department of woke culture and fight the
• 1:25:28
  practice of promotions based on race and
• 1:25:30
  gender. At the heart of the fallout was
• 1:25:33
  reportedly Hex's monthslong campaign to
• 1:25:35
  remove four officers, two black men, two
• 1:25:38
  women from a onestar promotion list
• 1:25:40
  comprising roughly other 29 offers
• 1:25:43
  officers, most of them white men. I
• 1:25:46
  don't know the truth of any of that, but
• 1:25:47
  that's in the story. According to the
• 1:25:49
  NYT, George and Driscoll pushed back,
• 1:25:51
  saying that officers with long records
• 1:25:53
  and exemplary service about two weeks
• 1:25:55
  before he was fired. George reportedly
• 1:25:57
  sought a meeting with Hegset to discuss
• 1:25:59
  the removals and what he viewed as
• 1:26:00
  unnecessary interference in Army
• 1:26:02
  personnel decisions to request Hegsth
• 1:26:05
  declined. George had served as a senior
• 1:26:07
  military assistant to Defense Secretary
• 1:26:09
  Lloyd Austin under the Biden
• 1:26:11
  administration. New York Times sources
• 1:26:14
  note that George and Distl had Discll
• 1:26:17
  Driscoll had a tight partnership with
• 1:26:19
  Hegsth at the odds with them later. Hegs
• 1:26:22
  can't fire Driscoll, an unnamed
• 1:26:24
  administration official told the
• 1:26:26
  Washington Post. So he's going to make
• 1:26:28
  his life hell. Hegs also fired General
• 1:26:32
  Hodney, who was headed the US Army's
• 1:26:34
  transformation and training command, and
• 1:26:36
  Major General William Green Jr., the
• 1:26:38
  chief of chaplain. No reason was given
• 1:26:41
  for any of the firings. George's term
• 1:26:43
  was not due to end until 2027. According
• 1:26:45
  to New York Times, as Army chief, he
• 1:26:48
  spearheaded initiative aimed at fielding
• 1:26:50
  new drone technology, AI powered
• 1:26:52
  targeting systems while opposing a new
• 1:26:55
  light tank program, argued that it was
• 1:26:57
  too vulnerable to cheap UAVs. General
• 1:27:02
  Christopher Leniv once he says top
• 1:27:04
  military aid is expected to serve as the
• 1:27:07
  acting army chief of staff.
• 1:27:12
  It is indeed a crazy mixed up muddled up
• 1:27:18
  shook up world except for Lola. So what
• 1:27:23
  we're going to do now is I think we got
• 1:27:26
  a little bit more. Where'd that one go?
• 1:27:30
  Did I delete it? Son of a Nutcracker. I
• 1:27:32
  think I did. There's another song I
• 1:27:35
  wanted to play for you that comes from
• 1:27:37
  another Russian movie and uh I think I
• 1:27:41
  shall. This one is comes from uh
• 1:27:45
  it. So enjoy. Here it comes.
• 1:27:55
  And I'll be leaving after that. Have a
• 1:27:57
  good day. Tomorrow's Civic Outlaws.
• 1:28:10
  Fore! Foreign! Foreign!
• 1:28:56
  Angelo
• 1:29:00
  Foreign
• 1:29:03
  speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech.
• 1:29:13
  Foreign
• 1:29:26
  speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech.
• 1:29:34
  Foreign
• 1:29:46
  speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech.
• 1:29:55
  Yes.