Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Burry Says CRASH | Saylor Says $1M BITCOIN (Who's Right?) | Bitcoin Simply

Transcript

Burry Says CRASH | Saylor Says $1M BITCOIN (Who's Right?) | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  The tailwinds for Bitcoin or the catalyst will be?
• 0:02
  My base case at the bottom is in, but it might not be, but at
• 0:05
  least a lot of the fast capital is already out.
• 0:08
  Two of three major catalysts that Sailor calls is bullish for
• 0:10
  Bitcoin are in motion and Lynn Alden's base case for Bitcoin is
• 0:13
  at the bottom is in. But is that ignoring all of the
• 0:16
  recession indicators that are blinking red right now?
• 0:18
  So comments from executives are. Coming out and they're saying
• 0:21
  that. They haven't seen demand this
• 0:22
  low since 2008 that this feels like recession levels to them.
• 0:26
  The housing market is in a historic crisis.
• 0:29
  Oil prices are indicating that there's no end to this war.
• 0:31
  Insight. Auto delinquencies are at all
• 0:34
  time highs. So what's going to happen?
• 0:36
  Is Bitcoin going to rise back to 100K?
• 0:38
  Or will a potentially looming recession drag us back into a
• 0:41
  bear market? Let's find out on today's
• 0:43
  episode of Bitcoin Simply, Let's go.
• 0:49
  The tailwinds for Bitcoin of the catalyst will be, you know, a
• 0:55
  cessation or a resolution to the Gulf War, the, the, the
• 1:00
  installment of wash at the Fed, any, any loosening or any
• 1:07
  forward accommodation and the interest rate monetary policy
• 1:13
  and then and then any positive developments in in trade, right.
• 1:20
  And those are all of those are positive catalyst and then the
• 1:24
  the passage of resolution on the Clarity Act, right when we get a
• 1:28
  resolution there, those will be positive macro factors for
• 1:33
  Bitcoin. Catalyst #1 is in motion.
• 1:36
  Kevin Warsh being elected as a new Fed chair.
• 1:39
  There's a 2 step process for that happening. 1 he has to be
• 1:42
  elected to the Federal Board of Governors and then as the
• 1:45
  Federal Board chair. Step one just happened
• 1:47
  yesterday. In this vote the yeas are 49,
• 1:50
  the nays are 44, and the motion is agreed to the clerk.
• 1:53
  Will report the. Nomination The Clerk will report
• 1:54
  the nomination. Federal Reserve System Kevin
• 1:57
  Warsh of. Florida to be a member of the.
• 1:59
  Board of Governors. 49 to 44 check.
• 2:04
  Next step Federal board. Bye bye Jerome.
• 2:08
  That's a massive step because as we know, he stated that he is a
• 2:12
  bitcoiner and that his first step is policy and that one of
• 2:15
  his first steps is policy when he moves into the position is
• 2:18
  going to be to loosen rates to drive growth.
• 2:21
  Catalyst #2 the clarity act being passed late last night,
• 2:25
  the Senate Banking Committee issued the first draft and
• 2:27
  updates to the clarity act since January.
• 2:30
  More details are coming out on what the red lines and what the
• 2:32
  changes are, but it appears that there's optimism on both sides
• 2:36
  of it passing with. Regard to the Clarity Act,
• 2:38
  listen, I think we're, I think we're on the verge of of an
• 2:41
  agreement here. And I think this is going to be
• 2:43
  very necessary to ensure consumer protections, to ensure
• 2:47
  certainty for an industry that's burgeoning.
• 2:50
  We want to make sure it happens here in America, not offshore.
• 2:53
  And there's been great leadership by a number of of my
• 2:56
  Senate colleagues, Senator Haggerty, Senator Loomis,
• 2:59
  Senator Moreno, who I know you have next.
• 3:01
  That leadership, I think, has put us in a place where we can
• 3:03
  hopefully have an agreement here shortly.
• 3:04
  This can get wrapped up as soon as Thursday.
• 3:07
  There's going to be a ton of positive news in capital and
• 3:09
  cash that are going to flow into the Bitcoin in crypto space at
• 3:12
  large. But overall, investors aren't so
• 3:15
  bullish right now. They think that Bitcoin and AI
• 3:17
  are overheated and overhyped right now.
• 3:19
  Michael Berry's case, number one.
• 3:21
  He's opened up an even bigger short on NVIDIA and Palantir
• 3:25
  than he even did in the great financial crisis.
• 3:27
  And he's not the only legendary investor who thinks that Bitcoin
• 3:30
  is it's investment thesis. Uncle Ray Ray Ray Dalio is
• 3:34
  completely misinformed about Bitcoin, but here's why he says
• 3:38
  that it's not the safe haven asset that everyone thought it
• 3:40
  was. What's your view on what's
• 3:42
  happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the role that
• 3:45
  many thought it was going to play?
• 3:46
  Which is the safe? Haven.
• 3:47
  Asset. There's an important
• 3:49
  differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin.
• 3:52
  Bitcoin does not have privacy. Any transactions can be
• 3:56
  monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled.
• 4:00
  Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being
• 4:04
  able to hold it. So it's not just individuals,
• 4:06
  it's institutions and so on. But most, you know, and central
• 4:11
  banks, there has been some question or thoughts of the
• 4:16
  development of, you know, new technologies like quantum
• 4:19
  computing and so on. Can there be issues regarding
• 4:22
  that? And then there's, you know, who
• 4:24
  owns it and what are the other exposures that they have in
• 4:28
  their portfolio? It tends to have a pretty high
• 4:31
  correlation with the tech stocks.
• 4:34
  So from an ownership, you know, just the supply demand is
• 4:38
  affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they sell
• 4:42
  something whatever else they have.
• 4:44
  So there are those dynamics. It's a long way as and it's a
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  relatively small market. That's a relatively controllable
• 4:51
  market. I think a lot of attention has
• 4:53
  been given to Bitcoin. But as a money, you know, it's
• 4:57
  it's small in relationship to gold.
• 5:00
  And so you know, those are the dynamics.
• 5:02
  There is only one gold. No privacy.
• 5:05
  Wrong. Correlated with tech stocks?
• 5:07
  He hasn't been paying attention, clearly, because Bitcoin is
• 5:10
  breaking the trend of being correlated with tech stocks, and
• 5:13
  it's so small that it can be controlled wrong.
• 5:16
  Ray is wrong on all three accounts, and he doesn't clearly
• 5:19
  understand the amount of capital and assets that are going to
• 5:22
  flow into Bitcoin through the passing of the Clarity Act.
• 5:24
  Ray doesn't understand that there are companies out there
• 5:26
  like MicroStrategy, who raised $437 million yesterday, that are
• 5:30
  just buying Bitcoin. He's thinking about the
• 5:32
  traditional central bankers. He's not thinking about someone
• 5:35
  like Michael Saylor acting as if he's a central banker.
• 5:38
  If the old guard central banks aren't thinking about Bitcoin in
• 5:41
  this way, well, there's going to be a new central bank banker in
• 5:44
  town, Michael Saylor. Do you hear that clip where he
• 5:47
  said, if I'm thinking like a central banker, if I lower the
• 5:50
  interest rate policy by .25%, what's that going to do to the
• 5:54
  demand that drives into my credit instrument?
• 5:56
  If we if we get to the point where we've issued a trillion
• 6:01
  dollars of credit and the company has an equity market cap
• 6:06
  of $3 trillion, right, yeah. And we lower the interest rate
• 6:13
  25 basis points, you know, we're going to make an obscene amount
• 6:18
  of money for our equity shareholders.
• 6:21
  And that one month people are going to go, Oh my God, right.
• 6:25
  You know, they just made billions of dollars for the
• 6:28
  equity overnight. And that would be equivalent to
• 6:31
  Amazon having 250 million Prime customers and saying we raised
• 6:36
  the price from $10 to $11. But you can imagine the time
• 6:41
  when I want to do that is when we own the market, like when 5%
• 6:46
  or 10% of the entire credit market or the Treasury market is
• 6:51
  flipped to digital credit. We might.
• 6:54
  And by the way, we would only do it if the Bitcoin economy slows
• 6:59
  down. If bitcoins growing 30% a year,
• 7:03
  we're just going to continue to drive the credit here.
• 7:06
  But let's say Bitcoin backs off and Bitcoins only growing 20% a
• 7:09
  year, right? Then it's kind of like, you
• 7:13
  know, if you're the central Bank of Bitcoin or the Reserve Bank,
• 7:17
  you might think, well, we're going to slightly lower the the
• 7:20
  interest rate to keep, you know, to keep things going and not
• 7:25
  overheat. But that is so many years in the
• 7:27
  future and that is when bitcoins $1,000,000 coin and we're 10
• 7:31
  years out and then we can talk about it.
• 7:33
  He's talking about numbers of a $3 trillion, five trillion
• 7:36
  dollar, $6 trillion credit market.
• 7:38
  He's thinking in a 10 year horizon with bitcoins price
• 7:41
  being at $1,000,000. Sounds like there's going to be
• 7:43
  a new kind of central banker moving forward.
• 7:45
  And with that kind of thinking, how much actual supply of
• 7:48
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• 9:02
  There's recession fears on the horizon right now.
• 9:05
  It's actually harder to sell a home than it was in the Great
• 9:07
  Financial Crisis. There's over 600,000 sellers and
• 9:10
  there are buyers in the market. No one has money to buy houses.
• 9:15
  And President Trump right now is coming out and saying that his
• 9:17
  goal is to make housing affordable.
• 9:19
  It's too unaffordable right now. People are competing with
• 9:22
  outside investors, are competing with high interest rates.
• 9:25
  And there isn't enough economic growth in the economy right now
• 9:27
  to stimulate home buying. And this is the type of thing
• 9:30
  that Kevin Wash sees and he's going to start to implement
• 9:33
  right away. I believe that there's going to
• 9:34
  be a flood of capital into Bitcoin.
• 9:36
  He's seeing that household unemployment drop for the fourth
• 9:38
  straight month. But when you're thinking like a
• 9:40
  long term investor, you're not thinking about the short term.
• 9:43
  You're thinking about the long term.
• 9:45
  Regardless of whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued at the
• 9:48
  moment, you don't really care. You understand that it's the
• 9:51
  most scarce, desirable asset in a world moving towards digital
• 9:54
  credit and digital assets. It's the only asset that can't
• 9:57
  be copied, replicated or recreated by some other asset.
• 10:02
  And this is exactly Lynn's base case right now.
• 10:04
  The bottom is in and the long term trends for Bitcoin look
• 10:08
  good right now. Fast money's already out, so you
• 10:10
  get seller exhaustion. Now whether it's already all
• 10:13
  like entirely out yet still is an open question.
• 10:15
  Like it's just like my base case at the bottom is in, but it
• 10:17
  might not be, but at least a lot of the fast capital's already
• 10:21
  out. We've seen kind of coins rotate
• 10:24
  to to strongly, more strongly held hands.
• 10:26
  I think that's a that's a really important kind of factor in kind
• 10:28
  of building the next base and then two changes in liquidity,
• 10:33
  right? So if if you don't have energy
• 10:35
  shocks that are causing liquidity shortages and you
• 10:38
  know, potentially forcing entities to degrow positions
• 10:40
  from a trading perspective, then that starts alleviating Bitcoin.
• 10:44
  If you see governments do energy STEMI checks, for example, and
• 10:50
  just, you know, kind of kind of like money supply starts
• 10:52
  accelerating in various capacities that can find its way
• 10:56
  into scarcer assets. I can find it, you know, that
• 10:59
  that's a, that's what the, the, the gold enthusiasts are looking
• 11:02
  for. That's what the Bitcoin
• 11:03
  enthusiasts are for. That's that's why some people
• 11:05
  are willing to hold really top tier stocks, even a kind of
• 11:08
  inflated valuations, because they say, well, I'm not going to
• 11:12
  bet against the money printer. So I want to own the the
• 11:15
  scarcest things, even if occasionally they're, they're
• 11:17
  richly priced. And the good news about Bitcoin
• 11:20
  is that it's it's not really richly priced at the moment.
• 11:22
  Bitcoin is the apex asset. We have Kevin Wash coming in.
• 11:25
  We have the Clarity Act that's probably going to get passed in
• 11:28
  the next several weeks, and we've got Sailor thinking like
• 11:30
  he's a central banker of Bitcoin.
• 11:33
  This is bullish and This is why I do think unforeseen.
• 11:36
  Another eruption in the war in Iran that Bitcoin will continue
• 11:40
  its March towards 100K. The liquidity horizon is going
• 11:43
  to change in a meaningful way right now.
• 11:45
  Doesn't change my thesis at all, but just giving you some tips
• 11:48
  and ideas and some alpha which we always drop on this channel.
• 11:51
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