Latest / The Curve / TCW23: Don't panic, but we are officially in a recession

Transcript

TCW23: Don't panic, but we are officially in a recession · The Curve

0:00
Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
0:07
business and stock market tea.
0:09
Everyone should experience for us at least once in their lives and Annie shouldn't miss
0:12
that just because she can't afford it.
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Help me.
0:15
So so how are you feeling after your little story in the weekend about you're not having
0:26
enough money for?
0:28
Firstly, I want to say that was very admirable in terms of the honesty and the vulnerability that came across
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there and the number of issues that we got was insane.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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It just shows though, like, why is talking about money and talking about, you know, the number
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of people that came forward, oh my gosh, I feel exactly the same.
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It was crazy.
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It was.
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But everyone just doesn't want to talk about it.
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And I think, yeah, it hats off to you for actually addressing it and opening that conversation.
0:57
Is it so, so needed?
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Yeah.
1:00
Yeah, it was weird.
1:01
I filmed that so for anyone that didn't see it, I put a video up on our Instagram story a couple of days ago
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about having a real moment where I had like $12 in my emergency fund.
1:15
I think I had $9 in my other.
1:17
And I basically, what happened was I couldn't afford to get a bus to the airport and I had to
1:22
visit your friend and ask for money anyway.
1:25
And it was so weird because I normally am such an advocate for being open about these kinds of things.
1:32
And I don't normally get embarrassed very easily, but at that, I actually was quite embarrassed.
1:37
Yeah, I felt, it felt really vulnerable, actually.
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I might see in the corner like my mascara had like kind of run as I had a little cry.
1:47
But no, I think that we should definitely talk about this in more detail, like doing actual whole episode on it
1:51
because I think there's so much unpack there.
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Let's just do the curve weekly today because I feel like if I start talking about this,
1:58
I might a cry or be talk for like way too long.
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And we don't want either.
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No.
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I'm joking, sorry.
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But yeah, let's do it episode this Wednesday for raising the curve on it, I think.
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But I'm actually quite excited.
2:13
If anyone that didn't see it, I basically said to Vic, I'm desperate for some help.
2:18
And it's quite funny because at first you were sort of like kind of probably couldn't understand
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how I'd even ended up in the position of not having enough to pay for a bus.
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You know, I remember saying something to you at the, when we were away and you were like,
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I just would, I would do everything in my power before I asked someone else for money
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and which I'd so respect.
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But it was really comforting to hear how many people had been in that situation before.
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And so, you know, Vic's working on some content.
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Yes, some content to help those of us who have ended up in similar money disasters
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because I'm just in desperate need of a reset in terms of my finances.
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So I'm actually bloody excited for that.
3:00
But we'll go into more detail in, yeah, in another episode later in the week.
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But should we do the curve weekly?
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Let's do it.
3:09
Let's do it.
3:11
Do you want us to take a brief?
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Yeah, my mayors.
3:14
These couches that we are recording on are so comfortable.
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I'm feeling like a little bit lazy.
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Just like sleep or something.
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No, I know you mean it's like, it's like,
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I feel very like cool or deady.
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You know, I'm just sitting on the couch having a chance.
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Alex Cooper, the goals of female podcasters.
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Yeah.
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So I know I'm just like, the markets.
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Yeah.
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Vic's not one hand straight over the couch.
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She's like so leaning into it.
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I've actually taken my shoes off.
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It's recorded on Friday afternoon and then heaven.
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Oh, my God.
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I'll literally fall asleep.
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So the stock market really made me try and just get out of the couch.
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Get out from slouching.
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Anyway, the stock market really, really strong week-class week.
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It's in P500 so the US stock market up about 3%.
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The NASDAQ up for New Zealand up, Australia up.
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It was up everywhere, which is awesome.
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And some great news with the US stock market is that
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we are officially no longer in a bear market.
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So a bear market for anyone, I'm just going to take this over
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and see if I can.
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I love how it's like.
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I asked it over to me.
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You knew I was ready for my intro.
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So a bear market.
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So bear is when things are going down and Vic explain this to me.
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She's like, think about a big giant hairy bear coming down
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on its prey.
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That's a bear market.
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So it's like, oh, shit.
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Or a bear market.
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And then what's the other one?
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Bull market.
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Bull market.
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And that's because they attack upwards.
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Yeah.
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So they use their horns and they kind of go from under and then upwards.
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Yeah.
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So that's how that's how you remember.
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So we're no longer in a bear market.
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No longer in a bear market.
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And the kind of official definition of a bear market
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is when a stock market or share price falls by 20%.
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So back kind of last year,
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from was the end of 2021 to October last year,
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the US stock market fell 25%.
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So that was a bear market.
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And then in order to get out of that,
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you have to rise back above those back to that level.
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So because the stock market has done so well this year,
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we're officially out of a bear market.
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And this has actually been the longest bear market since 1948.
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So it was nearly 250 days long.
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Wow.
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Which is pretty long.
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The average is about 140 days.
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So this was a pretty long one.
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So fair enough,
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people were sitting there kind of feeling a bit worried about their investments.
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Because it did go on for longer than normal.
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But yeah, there's been a lot of research done.
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Been like, okay, cool.
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How has the stock market performed after a bear market?
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Because people are like, okay, cool.
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What does that mean?
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And it's kind of a bit of a mixed result.
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But most of the time stock markets,
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the US stock market does do quite well after a bear market.
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Interesting.
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Positive.
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But take that with the grain of salt.
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Yeah.
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You know, there's always a case of something could happen.
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And we're definitely not out of the woods in terms of recession
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and high interest rates.
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There's a lot's going on in the world right now.
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So I actually wanted to ask you,
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because I saw a video,
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it was on Chese's,
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they put a video out saying where if New Zealand, like data has just come out
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and where are officially in recession.
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Yes.
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Is that going to be in our podcast today?
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Yes.
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Okay.
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It was in the curve weekly.
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Yeah, yeah.
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So I think that that was in the curve weekly newsletter that was sent out on Friday.
7:00
For you who doesn't get that,
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you can get it via the link in our Instagram bio
7:05
or you can get it through our website.
7:07
If you literally just put your email in,
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you can get a regular hour.
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I love that I'm claiming your regular work.
7:12
Yeah.
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The scours the internet for all the important things that you need to know about
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business, money, stock market, etc.
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And it's, I actually love these emails.
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I remember when Vic first started writing them
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and I was like, I don't get it.
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I don't get it.
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And I was commenting on everything.
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We were like, explain it better.
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But now I read it and I feel like I'm reading almost like a novel.
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It's fun and exciting and lulls.
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We get a few responses from people being like,
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we're going to love Friday mornings when the curvy.
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I'm like, really?
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It's so fun because I'm like, is it that interesting?
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You said it's because we would never find it otherwise.
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It's quite funny.
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And I also think the great thing about those emails, what you do,
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is you not only get the information that we need to know,
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but you make it, I understand it.
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I think if I was to read data about,
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oh, New Zealand's officially in a recession or whatever,
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I wouldn't know what to do with that or what that means.
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And I think that's what I love about the emails.
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There's this explanation.
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It's not just like, something's going on in the golf world.
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And I'm like, cool.
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No, I don't know what that means.
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But yeah, so I guess just finishing on the US,
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and then we'll jump into, I can explain, you know,
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what that means in terms of New Zealand being in a recession.
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But in terms of the US stock market, so yes,
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we're officially out of a beer market.
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And I guess the recent strength in the stock market
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in the US over the last, what are we, June?
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June kind of six months has been the artificial intelligence boom.
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So a lot of companies that are exposed to AI doing really well,
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you know, the Microsoft's of the world, Microsoft's up 50% this year.
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And that's a massive company.
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You know, that's not a small $10 million company
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growing to, you know, $15 million company.
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That's nearly a $3 trillion company,
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growing with 50% which is crazy.
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And Apple as well.
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Apple was up nearly 50% as well.
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This first six months this year.
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We had a meeting with someone yesterday on the day before
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who was saying, if you, as a company,
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if you're looking for investors or investment,
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and you literally just say, AI,
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or we're looking to AI, people are like, sure, sure, sure, go for it.
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Because people just want to be a part of artificial intelligence
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and what is happening in that space.
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So it kind of makes sense to hear that companies that Microsoft
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that have quite a big piece of the pie.
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I remember when I back in my finance days
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and we'd have like just walked in like three months ago.
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Oh, back in my name.
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Back in the day.
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No, I would have companies and it was the same with the cloud.
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A couple of them just said,
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and people would be like, oh, cloud this and, you know, big data.
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You're like all those buzzwords and be like, cloud, SaaS,
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you're recurring revenue, all those key words.
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And you'd be like, yep, cool, yep, right.
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We'll write a check.
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Like it was crazy.
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The phases and the themes that people want to get access to.
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They want to get access to and that they're growing
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and they'll literally like, yeah, invest in anything.
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But just be careful because it does scare me when things do really well,
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really quickly.
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That.
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Yeah.
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Just the bubble map pop.
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The bubble map pop.
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And sorry, just finishing on the US.
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Another reason is that their inflation is now at 4%.
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So if you think about.
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That's better, right?
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Yeah.
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All the figures like the UK is a 9%, New Zealand's pretty much 7%.
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And the US, the biggest economy in the world is a 4%,
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which is a really good sign because remember that target is that 2% to 3%,
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which is a healthy inflation range.
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So if they got so low, can they release all of us?
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I don't know.
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I just tried to Google and you don't know.
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Because that seems quite like quite a feat to put that far ahead in terms of.
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So interest rate rises have obviously helped.
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They've increased the interest rates 10 times since this time last year.
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So that's 10 interest rate rises, which is quite quite incredible.
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Is that more than what we've experienced in Australian New Zealand or similar?
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Probably, it's pretty similar, but they've put their interest rates on hold for the first time last week,
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which is a really good sign because they mean it means they're like, you know what?
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Inflation's tracking well, we don't need to keep increasing interest rates.
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But, you know, they do have the position where they can if their inflation doesn't keep coming down.
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Can I ask you something quickly before you move on?
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With that, does that mean that if we're looking at the global economy and the US is doing better?
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Are they because of their interest rates not in a recession?
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Or is that just a portion of the situation?
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They're not officially in a recession, no.
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But I guess what it means is that because inflation is coming down quicker than expected,
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there is less likelihood that the US will end up in recession.
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So it's all positive signs.
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And the US economy, the US stock market just has so many filters around to so many other parts of the world
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that if that is doing well, it's a good sign for a lot of other flow-on-effects
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and flow-on to other countries.
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But New Zealand, yes, as I've stalled the limelight, is in recession.
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It's like, I've got something really good to say about that.
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Yes, we are officially in recession in New Zealand.
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It's something to celebrate, but I'm going to break it down because it's not all bad news.
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Okay, I want everyone to take a deep breath.
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It's going to be fine.
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So the word recession does kind of freak a lot of people out.
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But I want to tell you the actual definition of a recession is two quarters, two consecutive quarters.
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So one after the other of negative growth.
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So last year, so October, November, December, that's one quarter, that New Zealand declined by 0.7%.
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And is this the overall economy?
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The overall economy, yeah, declined 0.7%.
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Now, this first quarter of this year, so January, February, March, the economy declined 0.1%.
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So it's tiny.
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So we're talking really tiny numbers here, like negative 0.1, you're pretty close to flat.
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So it's, you know, in terms of zero growth.
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So that, yes, we technically in a recession because we've had two quarters of negative growth.
13:42
Oh, okay, I see where you're going with this.
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And I don't want to downplay it because there could be a lot of people listening that are like, that's really bad.
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Yeah, or that have felt the impacts of the recession.
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And all of us have felt the impacts of the recession.
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Or they've lost their jobs or, you know, they've had, you know, staff at their work lose their jobs, whatever.
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But like it's, the thing is that technically, yes, we are in a recession, but we're at a very mild recession, I guess you could say.
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We've still got really low unemployment rates, which is really good.
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We're talking about New Zealand.
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So we've still got really low unemployment rates.
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So that means, you know, a lot of people still do have their jobs.
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Yes, you might work for a company that's saying, you know, we're not giving pay rises or we're having a hiring freeze
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because they can kind of, they're preempting what might happen.
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And yes, we've got inflation at ridiculous levels and groceries are still super, super expensive.
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But we did get some good news a while ago that interest rates have peaked.
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That's right.
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So again, so that's quite good news.
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That means that, you know, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
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But one thing that actually probably helps that figure, that first quarter figure of 0.1%, negative 0.1%.
14:56
Yeah.
14:57
Was the cyclone that we had.
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So surprisingly,
15:01
April, cyclone Gabriel.
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And this is pretty hard for a lot of people that were impacted, but they're actually cyclones and devastation and natural disasters
15:14
are actually have a positive effect on economic growth.
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Really?
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Which, because GDP, which is their official figure, the gross domestic product,
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and that's the overall amount that the economy grows.
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Is it doesn't measure destruction, it only measures construction or activity.
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So all these bridges that need building, all these roads that need rebuilding, that's economic activity.
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So that means that that's economic growth.
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So in the weird way, I don't know what that figure would have been, had we not had cyclone Gabriel.
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But it might have been worse.
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So I mean, take that how you want, you know, maybe stripping out cyclone Gabriel,
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the economy's actually doing worse.
16:02
Who knows?
16:03
Who knows?
16:04
But I was just saying that there is a, there is an anomaly.
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I've got to say the word, there is an anomaly in there.
16:10
So it'll be surprising to see what the June, what the third quarter does.
16:13
Yeah, what the third quarter does.
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But I wonder, I'm reading this book at the moment.
16:20
And it's fiction, but it's based in the 1960s.
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And this woman is called Lessons in Chemistry.
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And this woman, sorry, this is kind of an offshoot.
16:28
But she gets, how was this related to her recession?
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She's just, she's on this like TV show.
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And all of this like hate mail is coming in, like lips or letters.
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You know, not like DMs like, you need to die, but like death threats and stuff.
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I'm just imagine if we were in the 1960s right now,
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and this was like a show, and people could send in letters,
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I reckon you would get some serious hate bell for saying that.
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I know, and it's like, obviously, I'm not saying that.
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Gosh, we should have more natural disasters,
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because it means that we won't.
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It's just the fact that the economy learned.
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And it's something that I learned, which I found really surprising.
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And it's so true, it's, it's an era with the statistics.
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It's kind of what I'm saying.
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So yeah, just something to be aware of.
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And then I guess jumping somewhere closer to home.
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Home as in our home right now in the UK.
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What?
17:18
Would you call it home?
17:19
Not yet.
17:20
Not yet.
17:21
Maybe, possibly unpacked.
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It's so much.
17:24
You know, when you move into a new place,
17:25
do you have it?
17:26
I remember.
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I was literally saying to someone yesterday that I met.
17:29
I was like, I hate the admin of going somewhere new.
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Like, I have to get new tupperware so that I can bring lunch to work.
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And I have to, they're just the amount of moving
17:39
and then like sorting my shit out.
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It's going to take me weeks to be there.
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Like, I just by phone still fucked.
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Don't worry.
17:46
I'm going to do it today.
17:47
Just like, please sort of that.
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I just love it.
17:50
We're walking from meetings to meetings.
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Do we turn left?
17:52
All right.
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And I'm just like, she has no data.
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She's, I was like, should I just screw with her?
17:57
And be like, yeah, left here.
17:58
So see you, bye.
17:59
Just make some of it.
18:00
Leave you down in the bottom part.
18:01
Trying to protect my phone's working.
18:02
So I'm like, it's left here, right?
18:04
She's like, no.
18:06
Oh, gosh.
18:07
So yes, I'm just quickly in the UK.
18:11
Yeah, one thing I've definitely noticed is.
18:13
How cheaper groceries?
18:15
Yeah, that.
18:16
Yep.
18:17
But also just all through the newspapers
18:20
is like the mortgage crisis.
18:21
Like the number of people struggling to pay their mortgage.
18:26
And the house price declines.
18:30
The UK is expecting house prices to climb about 35% by 2025,
18:34
which is absolutely crazy.
18:36
Like to put that perspective New Zealand.
18:38
And eight percent or something like that?
18:40
It's down to about 13%.
18:41
Yeah.
18:42
And it's expected to be 15 to 17 is what they're expecting
18:45
that to kind of, it's going to be more than double.
18:48
Yeah.
18:49
This is, yeah, this is going to be more than double.
18:50
And it's just like, wow, if you're sitting on your biggest asset,
18:53
being your house, and you're seeing that decline by 35%.
18:58
And it might not be 35.
18:59
It might be 30, even 25.
19:01
It's still a huge...
19:02
Even 15, you're like, yeah.
19:03
Like that is a huge knock on effect.
19:07
Not to, like, physically what you can spend,
19:10
but mentally how wealthy you feel,
19:13
and therefore your willingness to spend money
19:17
and all of that, you know,
19:19
because you're no longer sitting on an asset
19:23
that you thought was valuable.
19:25
Yeah.
19:26
Or as valuable.
19:27
Yeah.
19:28
So it's kind of like if you had $100,000 in the bank.
19:31
I have $75,000.
19:32
Now you're going to have $75.
19:34
You're just a bit more like, oh, maybe I shouldn't spend that.
19:37
Oh, you know, you just...
19:38
Mentally, it's just a bit different.
19:39
So the wealth, which is kind of what we call the wealth effect.
19:42
And it has flow and effects into other industries
19:45
and the way people spend money and how they feel and all of that.
19:48
So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
19:51
But yeah, and mortgage rates.
19:52
I mean, we're seeing it in New Zealand,
19:54
this thing in the UK, mortgage rates, you know, above 6%
19:57
that it's starting to hurt a lot of people.
20:00
And yes, there's light at the end of the tunnel
20:02
with interest rates in New Zealand,
20:04
but not so much in the UK.
20:06
Their inflation is still at 9%.
20:08
So they've got inflation.
20:10
Sorry.
20:11
Yes.
20:12
We have Brits now.
20:13
We have British.
20:14
We have...
20:15
Wow.
20:16
I don't know what that was like German.
20:18
Not even German.
20:19
Of course.
20:20
Wow.
20:21
Wow.
20:22
Yeah.
20:23
It's not a strength of mine.
20:24
No.
20:25
People that can just do it.
20:26
That's so funny.
20:27
I feel like...
20:28
I think the South Africa, I love them.
20:30
Yeah.
20:31
Oh my god.
20:32
Ha.
20:33
Ha.
20:34
Ha.
20:35
I'd like to go to the shop.
20:37
Oh my god.
20:38
This is so good.
20:39
Oh, anyway.
20:40
We're not meant to start accidents as microgressions.
20:43
I'm sorry.
20:44
Yes.
20:45
No.
20:46
But yeah, I think the fact that inflation
20:48
is not coming down as quick as expected in the UK,
20:51
means interest rates are going to have to keep going up,
20:53
which means mortgage rates are going to have to keep going up.
20:55
Oh, this is a bit much for me.
20:56
Which, yeah.
20:57
It just means...
20:58
Essentially, thanks are not good in the UK.
20:59
And get worse, forgets better.
21:00
Great.
21:01
So...
21:02
Great.
21:03
And that's it.
21:04
And we're going to finish with...
21:05
Oh, would you rather?
21:06
Oh, yes.
21:07
Which we forgot to do in Sicily.
21:08
Sorry.
21:09
Yeah, we forgot to do in Sicily.
21:10
I was a bit preoccupied just wanting an apparel to gun us.
21:12
Yeah.
21:13
I was like, rip this up, let's go down.
21:14
Let's go down.
21:15
Let's go eat some pasta and have an apparel.
21:16
Just watching and just ready for a drink.
21:18
Yeah.
21:19
Would you rather have a job that you hate that pays really well?
21:21
Or a job you love with a really terrible salary?
21:25
How terrible and how good are we talking?
21:27
Oh, you can't keep...
21:28
No, I know.
21:29
No specifics.
21:30
Because if I was on not enough to get by and actually do anything...
21:34
Yeah.
21:35
I'd probably choose the highest salary.
21:38
But if I'm earning enough to be able to live somewhat
21:43
within the life I want to live, even if it's not going to get me far ahead.
21:47
I mean, I've been in this position before.
21:49
It's hard.
21:50
I've been in both.
21:51
Yeah.
21:52
And I don't know.
21:54
The job I hated, but was paid well.
21:58
You kind of...
21:59
You make it work, but you can't survive there.
22:01
Do you know what I mean?
22:02
It's like...
22:03
It's literally...
22:04
It's literally money doesn't solve the problem of...
22:07
Not wanting to turn up to work every day and actually hating being there for five days a week.
22:11
Yeah.
22:12
Like, you cannot solve that.
22:14
And...
22:15
Why did you hate it?
22:16
It was just a bad, really bad culture.
22:18
Yeah.
22:20
Bad culture, but also I felt incredibly like not challenged.
22:25
Yeah.
22:26
You know, like I could have done nothing for four days of the week and they would have no idea.
22:30
Yeah.
22:31
And I think on paper my job looked really cool and good.
22:35
Yeah.
22:36
But the money and the money was great.
22:38
Yeah.
22:39
And that's the only reason honestly I've got some savings.
22:41
So I don't regret being in that job.
22:43
But I left after a year because I just felt like...
22:45
I think it also makes you appreciate a good job.
22:48
Do you know what I mean?
22:49
Like, I think if I'd never had that, I would have thought that every job was amazing or not realised how good it was.
22:57
Yeah, how to make a job with me or...
22:59
It's almost like...
23:01
Honestly, it's like being in ship relationships who can be a good one or living in a horrible house.
23:06
Can you do a good one or living in terrible weather and then being...
23:09
You know, I think that contrast.
23:11
If you don't have the darker side of life and whatever aspect you're talking about,
23:16
you never really appreciate the lighter side of what it is.
23:19
It's always darkest before the dawn.
23:21
All right.
23:22
And on that stunning piece of wisdom.
23:25
I definitely come up with that by myself.
23:27
But no, I think ultimately I think it depends on how much.
23:31
I reckon it's a job...
23:33
I would do a job I love with a blow average salary.
23:35
Same.
23:36
On the basis that I could back myself to do something else to make my salary.
23:40
Yeah, yeah.
23:41
Or invest or be just super clever with your money.
23:44
Yeah, same.
23:45
Thank you so much for listening to The Curve Weekly.
23:47
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23:52
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23:55
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23:56
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23:57
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23:58
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24:00
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24:03
Because it really helps other people find our cute little podcast.
24:06
And we hope you have a good week and see you next Monday.
24:09
Bye.
24:10
Bye.
24:11
So yeah, see you next Tuesday.
24:13
Well, see you next Tuesday.
24:16
See you next Tuesday.
24:17
I made Monday.