Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / 2026 Week 6 Trades: Nine Buys, Four Sells and the Quarterback to Shop Today
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: One of my salves this week is a quarterback.
- 0:01SPEAKER_00: A lot of you is starting every single week, no matter what.
- 0:03SPEAKER_00: He's coming off his best game of the year, and I think you should be shopping him today.
- 0:07SPEAKER_00: We're five weeks in now, so the sample's finally big enough that the usage tells you a lot more than the box scores do.
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: Some of you have a team that looks great on paper and can't win, and some of you are winning off a couple guys catching touchdowns, they probably shouldn't be.
- 0:18SPEAKER_00: But either way, I went through all the usage, the route participation, the target share, expected fantasy points per route run, all of it.
- 0:23SPEAKER_00: I've got buys and sells for you today.
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: That's what we're gonna do.
- 0:27SPEAKER_00: Buys and sells, let's get right into it.
- 0:28SPEAKER_00: First off, you start him with Batial Tutin.
- 0:31SPEAKER_00: I'm buying Bacial Tutin, and I asked you to buy Tutin a few weeks ago, and if you did, you're already up.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: But the buy window is still open because the usage just keeps going up.
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: Yesterday's price is not today's price.
- 0:41SPEAKER_00: Through the first three weeks, he was basically locked in around 48% snap share, 54% of the carries every single game.
- 0:47SPEAKER_00: Then in week four, it jumped to 57% of the snaps, and then 68% of the rush attempts with a season high 41% route participation.
- 0:55SPEAKER_00: And this past week, it went even further: 66% of snaps, 92% of the backfield carries, okay, and another season high at 48% route participation.
- 1:05SPEAKER_00: Chris Rodriguez, uh, you know, he's completely out of the picture at this point, right?
- 1:10SPEAKER_00: Like he wasn't before, but now he is.
- 1:12SPEAKER_00: His role completely crashed in week five.
- 1:14SPEAKER_00: 13% of the snaps, only two carries to Tutan's 22 carries.
- 1:20SPEAKER_00: And honestly, Tutin's earned that because he's been so efficient.
- 1:22SPEAKER_00: That's what we hung our hat on a couple weeks ago when we mentioned him in this video.
- 1:26SPEAKER_00: He's top eight in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and top five in missed tackles force per attempt.
- 1:32SPEAKER_00: He scored at least 11 points in four straight games, and he actually underperformed, you know, based on his role by a ton against the Eagles, falling eight points short of the 19 expected fantasy points uh his usage should have got him.
- 1:44SPEAKER_00: I think he could have had a touchdown if he had the right blocks this week.
- 1:46SPEAKER_00: He had two touchdowns called back the week before.
- 1:49SPEAKER_00: If this workload sticks, I think it will.
- 1:51SPEAKER_00: The top 12 weeks are coming.
- 1:52SPEAKER_00: I'm still buying.
- 1:53SPEAKER_00: I'm also buying Luther Burden if I can.
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: First and foremost, obviously the Bears are getting Caleb Williams back soon, probably this week.
- 1:59SPEAKER_00: And as questionable as Burton's usage has been over this year, I think about the games he's actually played, right?
- 2:04SPEAKER_00: You know, week one was a 59-point blowout where the Bears ran the shit out of the ball.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: Week two, right, played in a monsoon, ended 9-3, that score.
- 2:12SPEAKER_00: Um, the other three were two different backup quarterbacks.
- 2:15SPEAKER_00: He hasn't played one normal game with Caleb this year.
- 2:17SPEAKER_00: And even with all that, the usage is trending the right way.
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: He posted a season high 79% rap participation in week five.
- 2:24SPEAKER_00: He had a 23% target share for the year, which leads the team.
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: A lot of people who drafted him probably, you know, have given up maybe on what they were sold this season, this offseason, I should say, uh, maybe by me and a lot of other people.
- 2:36SPEAKER_00: But, you know, I'm buying before he gets a normal game with his starting quarterback.
- 2:39SPEAKER_00: I'm also buying Tyler Shug.
- 2:40SPEAKER_00: The Vikings were a really tough matchup for Shug coming into last week.
- 2:43SPEAKER_00: 96 yards with two picks.
- 2:45SPEAKER_00: It was ugly.
- 2:46SPEAKER_00: No way around it.
- 2:46SPEAKER_00: But he's way better than that, right?
- 2:47SPEAKER_00: Before that game, Shug was the overall QB five in points per game.
- 2:50SPEAKER_00: And even coming out of it, he's still averaging the most expected fantasy points per game of any quarterback in the league.
- 2:56SPEAKER_00: That's because of the environment he's in.
- 2:57SPEAKER_00: Kellen Moore has the Saints running the fastest offense in the league in terms of pace, they're throwing at a top four rate.
- 3:03SPEAKER_00: Shug averages the most dropbacks and pass attempts per game of any quarterback right now.
- 3:07SPEAKER_00: And on top of that, he's top 10 in design rush rate at 7%, top five in goal line carry rate at 29%.
- 3:14SPEAKER_00: Lots of plays, good weapons.
- 3:16SPEAKER_00: He has a really good one coming back soon off of IR, hopefully.
- 3:19SPEAKER_00: He's leading the league in attempts and he's getting goal line carries.
- 3:21SPEAKER_00: Like that's a good fantasy quarterback.
- 3:23SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't let one bad game against a tough defense scare you off.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: If anything, I'd use it to go get him.
- 3:28SPEAKER_00: A little bit of a penny stock, which is crazy to say, Jalen Waddle.
- 3:33SPEAKER_00: He's had three games under seven PPR points, and honestly, he's basically a bet on talent, right?
- 3:38SPEAKER_00: With the way this Broncos offense has played.
- 3:40SPEAKER_00: Sean Payton took over play calling.
- 3:42SPEAKER_00: That gave us some hope.
- 3:42SPEAKER_00: Waddle's still doing his part.
- 3:44SPEAKER_00: Like he leads the Broncos in target share 22%.
- 3:46SPEAKER_00: Everything around him has just been bad.
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: Bonex is not playing well.
- 3:49SPEAKER_00: He's not giving him the ball downfield.
- 3:51SPEAKER_00: He's a talented player who was extremely efficient last year and over his career, and the way he's been used just hasn't matched what Denver paid for him.
- 3:58SPEAKER_00: If Peyton can turn this thing around, Waddle turns around with it, and you can get him for dirt cheap right now.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: I think that's the point here.
- 4:04SPEAKER_00: Like just how cheap he is.
- 4:05SPEAKER_00: He's almost a throw-in for some of these trades at this point.
- 4:08SPEAKER_00: Somebody I'm selling on the other side is Jamison Williams.
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: Weeks four and five were Jameson's two most productive games of the season.
- 4:14SPEAKER_00: And in those two games, only 18% and 14% target share.
- 4:18SPEAKER_00: In week five against the Cardinals, he had two catches on four targets, both of them were touchdowns, and that's not sustainable, right?
- 4:23SPEAKER_00: Especially when you remember that was the first game all year, he even got an end zone target.
- 4:28SPEAKER_00: He had zero of them through the first four weeks.
- 4:30SPEAKER_00: Over the last two games, he's tied with Gibbs as the third option in the offense at a 16% target share, with Laporta and St.
- 4:36SPEAKER_00: Brown both over 21%.
- 4:38SPEAKER_00: He's not an awful target earner, but it's not nearly enough to keep betting on the 17 points per game he's put up over the last two weeks.
- 4:43SPEAKER_00: He's been boomer bust his whole career, and he still is.
- 4:46SPEAKER_00: With his bye week coming up this week, I'm selling off of two strong box scores while people are still excited about them.
- 4:51SPEAKER_00: Somebody who was buying last year, very excited about going into week five, Michael Wilson.
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: Let's buy Michael Wilson.
- 4:57SPEAKER_00: Let's throw some positivity here on a bad performance.
- 5:01SPEAKER_00: Um, obviously, been on him for weeks now.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: I'm not getting off at this point.
- 5:04SPEAKER_00: He's top 12 in expected points per game on the season.
- 5:07SPEAKER_00: He's third over the last three weeks.
- 5:09SPEAKER_00: Even with this past game, he has a second largest gap in the league between his actual points per game and his expected fantasy points per game.
- 5:16SPEAKER_00: We're talking 12.8 and 17.5.
- 5:19SPEAKER_00: That's a pretty wide margin.
- 5:21SPEAKER_00: He's top 12 in target share in the NFL, air yard share, top 12 as well, top 12 in first read target share this season.
- 5:27SPEAKER_00: That's an excellent target earning profile.
- 5:29SPEAKER_00: And it's on a Cardinals offense that's top 10 in pass rate and has run the eighth most place while trailing.
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: That kind of volume can turn into some serious production.
- 5:37SPEAKER_00: Just look at what he did over the previous two games, right?
- 5:39SPEAKER_00: When he had 30 targets combined.
- 5:41SPEAKER_00: We've seen it happen before with him.
- 5:42SPEAKER_00: He's had three finishes outside the top 30, so his managers might have a little bit of a sour taste in their mouth right now.
- 5:47SPEAKER_00: They might not realize who he is, which is like this high-end wide receiver too, uh, with wide receiver one usage, to be honest with you.
- 5:53SPEAKER_00: The box score isn't matching the usage, and that's exactly what when you want to try to get your every week wide receiver too.
- 5:59SPEAKER_00: I'm buying Ash and Genty.
- 6:00SPEAKER_00: Genty ranks fifth in total opportunities among all running backs.
- 6:03SPEAKER_00: He's doing it on the Raiders offense at top 10 in scoring, believe it or not.
- 6:06SPEAKER_00: You know, from this role, he's averaging the third most expected fantasy points per game at 20.7.
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: That's only behind Jameer Gibbs and Kenneth Walker, and he's producing 16.9.
- 6:16SPEAKER_00: So he's been the bell count on a good offense.
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: He just isn't producing like it.
- 6:20SPEAKER_00: He hasn't scored a touchdown since week one.
- 6:22SPEAKER_00: He has one top 12 finish in five games.
- 6:25SPEAKER_00: Week five against the Patriots was his least involved game of the year, but obviously, you know, it came in banged up after being a late ad to the injury report and obviously dealing with the plant of fasciitis.
- 6:33SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, I spoke to my boy Fantasy Docs on Instagram.
- 6:37SPEAKER_00: Go give him a follow.
- 6:38SPEAKER_00: He's awesome.
- 6:38SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, there's obviously a little bit of risk here, but he agrees that this shouldn't be something that, you know, is a long-term issue, right?
- 6:44SPEAKER_00: So, you know, this kind of volume on a good offense turns into points eventually.
- 6:48SPEAKER_00: I'm buying to get ahead of it, and I'm happy to take him, you know, off the hands of any impatient fantasy manager.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: I'm buying Drake London high.
- 6:55SPEAKER_00: His stock has definitely gone up with Michael Penix because it's near the top.
- 6:59SPEAKER_00: But, you know, so this isn't a buy low, obviously.
- 7:01SPEAKER_00: But I think there's a chance that he hasn't hit his ceiling yet.
- 7:04SPEAKER_00: With Penix, London leads the league in yards and fantasy points per route run.
- 7:09SPEAKER_00: He's third in target share, he's averaging 136 yards per game, which is the most in the league.
- 7:14SPEAKER_00: We've seen these splits before.
- 7:15SPEAKER_00: Penix hyper-targets London last year, too.
- 7:18SPEAKER_00: And here's the crazy part like in three games with Penix under center, London doesn't have a single red zone or end zone target, and he still doesn't have a touchdown this year.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: Those touchdowns are going to come for a receiver with this, you know, this production, this usage, his size, his pedigree.
- 7:32SPEAKER_00: You're gonna have to pay up for him, obviously.
- 7:34SPEAKER_00: But like when you're looking for that high-end target to get, like if you want to combine two of your good players for one elite player, like he's the guy I'm going for.
- 7:42SPEAKER_00: So I'm okay buying high here because I don't think many people believe the ceiling's actually there and that it could get higher than where it's at right now.
- 7:48SPEAKER_00: The numbers say it can.
- 7:50SPEAKER_00: I'm also buying DJ Moore.
- 7:51SPEAKER_00: The Bills letting more rest this week was a godsend.
- 7:53SPEAKER_00: He probably could have played in week five if they really wanted him to, and now he gets to come back a lot closer to 100% with a lot less chance of him re-aggravating the shoulder again.
- 8:01SPEAKER_00: And when he's on the field, he's by far Josh Allen's favorite target.
- 8:04SPEAKER_00: In his two full games, he posted 27% and 43% target rates on a per route run basis.
- 8:10SPEAKER_00: And on the season, he's top 12 in target rate among 101 receivers with at least 60 routes and 12 in yards per route as well.
- 8:17SPEAKER_00: Anyone who's had him since the start of the year is probably frustrated with the injuries and all that, and especially if they if they're losing, you know, games because of him, or you know, they think it's because of him.
- 8:27SPEAKER_00: They're the rest of the team is probably bad too.
- 8:29SPEAKER_00: But you know, he's got the week seven bye coming up as well.
- 8:32SPEAKER_00: So that's one more thing to use when you're negotiating, right?
- 8:34SPEAKER_00: It's like, hey, like listen, he's been hurt.
- 8:36SPEAKER_00: He got the week seven bye.
- 8:38SPEAKER_00: Let me take him off your hands.
- 8:39SPEAKER_00: Go get a receiver with true wide receiver one usage at a discount.
- 8:42SPEAKER_00: I'm buying Devontae Smith right now as well.
- 8:44SPEAKER_00: He has a chance to come back this week.
- 8:46SPEAKER_00: If not this week, he's expected back soon after.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: But this is the window because people haven't seen how good he is since week three.
- 8:52SPEAKER_00: He's third in the league in target share only behind JSN and Puka Nakua, which is pretty good company.
- 8:57SPEAKER_00: He's fourth in first week target share at 39%, only behind Puka, JSN, and Amon Ra.
- 9:02SPEAKER_00: So, you know, you think about this for a second.
- 9:04SPEAKER_00: Over the first three games, while Smitty was healthy, the next closest Eagle in target share was Don Tavian Wicks at 18%.
- 9:10SPEAKER_00: So that's more than a 10-point gap between Smith and the next guy.
- 9:13SPEAKER_00: He's also sixth in expected fantasy points per game.
- 9:16SPEAKER_00: And with the Eagles being a dumpster fire without him on offense right now, the price might be low.
- 9:21SPEAKER_00: So I'm trusting the volume, I'm trusting the talent, I'm trusting the connection that these two have.
- 9:24SPEAKER_00: If Smitty's cheap anywhere in your league, go get him.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: Someone I'm looking to explore selling is Denzel Boston.
- 9:30SPEAKER_00: Okay, he's a good player, love Denzel Boston, but you know, and he's been one of the best rookie receivers, you know, in football so far.
- 9:37SPEAKER_00: He's seen the field right away, making a huge impact.
- 9:40SPEAKER_00: But the usage isn't as bulletproof as it looks.
- 9:42SPEAKER_00: And I think it might be time to sell, you know, just so that you can get a more stable asset.
- 9:46SPEAKER_00: Somebody who's, you know, whose production is kind of matching the utilization a little bit more, a little bit more tighter.
- 9:51SPEAKER_00: He's running a lot of routes, he's getting targeted, but not mind-blowing volume, right?
- 9:55SPEAKER_00: Only a 20% target share on the year.
- 9:57SPEAKER_00: He's caught four fewer passes in four of his five games.
- 10:00SPEAKER_00: Boston's bottom 15 among qualifying receivers in catchable ball rate.
- 10:04SPEAKER_00: And if not for the late touchdowns in three games, he'd be in the same conversations as guys like you know, Jerry Judy and Casey Concepcion.
- 10:10SPEAKER_00: Like, I don't want to keep betting on touchdowns in a Deshaun Watson offense, especially when people are treating Boston as like a set and forget wide receiver too, just because he's like consistent.
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: I'd rather turn him into an actual set and forget wide receiver too.
- 10:22SPEAKER_00: Maybe you combine him with, I don't know, like a Woody Marks and go get Michael Wilson.
- 10:27SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 10:27SPEAKER_00: That's probably a terrible trade idea, but you know, go get your guy.
- 10:30SPEAKER_00: Somebody I'm selling this week is Bill Krowski Merit if I can.
- 10:33SPEAKER_00: Week five was a rare, efficient game for Bill.
- 10:35SPEAKER_00: He averaged over seven yards per carry, had that big touchdown run.
- 10:38SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, he put up 14 points on 80 yards in a touchdown in Jaden Daniels' first game back, and it looked like, okay, well, this is how he's gonna be when Jaden Daniels play, but the role just isn't doing him any favors.
- 10:48SPEAKER_00: He's still getting outsnapped by Rashad White.
- 10:51SPEAKER_00: He barely sees the ball at the goal line or on passing downs or the two-minute drill, and he doesn't get targeted.
- 10:56SPEAKER_00: He's a pure early down back on an offense that's been shaky at best, and he's not even efficient in that role.
- 11:01SPEAKER_00: He's bottom five in explosive run rate, bottom ten in yards per carry, dead last and missed tackles force per attempt.
- 11:06SPEAKER_00: I'd capitalize on this one and move him.
- 11:08SPEAKER_00: Maybe for a more dependable running back, maybe you got to add in a little bit more if you have to package him up to do it.
- 11:13SPEAKER_00: I would.
- 11:13SPEAKER_00: And speaking of selling commanders, I might be looking to sell Jaden Daniels, man.
- 11:17SPEAKER_00: I might be.
- 11:18SPEAKER_00: I listen, Jaden Daniels is Jaden Daniels.
- 11:20SPEAKER_00: Okay, he has overall QB1 upside any given week.
- 11:23SPEAKER_00: Like you look at what he did in this game.
- 11:25SPEAKER_00: He ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns.
- 11:27SPEAKER_00: Is there a world where we can turn him into a you know high-end skill player while that game is a last thing that everyone saw?
- 11:33SPEAKER_00: He's averaging 153 passing yards a game, which is the fewest in the league among qualifying quarterbacks.
- 11:37SPEAKER_00: He's third fewest in attempts per game as well.
- 11:40SPEAKER_00: He's leaning really heavily into the rushing right now.
- 11:42SPEAKER_00: And only Josh Allen averages more fantasy points per game from rushing, but the passing game is a big part of his game too.
- 11:49SPEAKER_00: And no quarterback in the league is scoring more points than his usage says he should.
- 11:53SPEAKER_00: If someone in your league is valuing him like a top-tier quarterback after that game, I'd see what kind of high-end player, wide receiver, running back that you can get for him.
- 12:01SPEAKER_00: So maybe what you do is you combine Jaden Daniels and another player, and then you downgrade your quarterback with their quarterback, but you upgrade your running back or wide receiver with their player.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: The other thing, too, that brace on his elbow, we're gonna see that every week.
- 12:14SPEAKER_00: It wouldn't be grimacing every time he hits the floor.
- 12:17SPEAKER_00: And it's very possible that he ends up getting hurt again, right?
- 12:19SPEAKER_00: That's what happened last year.
- 12:21SPEAKER_00: So if you want to insulate yourself from that type of risk, you might want to make this move.
- 12:25SPEAKER_00: That's gonna do it for this episode.
- 12:26SPEAKER_00: If this helped you, make sure to subscribe to the channel or the podcast, wherever you're listening or watching.
- 12:31SPEAKER_00: It helps a ton and it's the best way to catch these every week.
- 12:34SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna see you in the next episode this week.
- 12:35SPEAKER_00: Starts and sits for week six.
- 12:37SPEAKER_00: Appreciate you guys a ton.